HomeMy WebLinkAboutNorthPark_Report.pdfNorth Park Properties
Concept Land Use Plan
City of Bozeman, Montana
Department of Natural Resources Conservation
August 2012
Executive Summary
The planning team of CTA Architects Engineers Planners with
MXD Development Strategists, LTD was hired by the City of
Bozeman and Montana Department of Natural Resources and
Conservation to develop a market analysis and feasibility study
for the 275-acre parcel of land known as the North Park Site
in North Bozeman. The project represents a project team
relationship between a state agency and local municipality.
The North Park site is the largest contiguous vacant site in
the City of Bozeman and represents one of if not the best
opportunities for strategically planned growth. Bozeman
and DNRC desire to implement development in a strategic
fashion. The overriding goal is to do it right.
During the course of the development of the North Park Concept
Land Use plan the project team held several public meetings
and brought in diverse groups of individuals and community
leaders to gain input on possible development options, study
transportation access to the site and facilitate discussion on
possible development scenarios. The primary approach to this
project has been to develop a land use plan that is grounded in
reality. The planning effort necessitates sound market planning
and explores in great depth the feasibility of various development
scenarios. In the end the recommendations are market based
and tied to conditions found in the Bozeman area development
market place.
This report will spell out the CTA/MXD approach to the
assessment of the regional marketplace and the process derived
to define a development program grounded in the market.
The project cites case studies and explores various development
options including hotel, retail commercial, light industrial, office
and residential conditions for the North Park site.
Numerous land use options were explored that define potential
circulation routes and locations of various potential land uses.
Ultimately, a preferred option and an alternate option were
developed and a master concept plan and conceptual cost
estimate was prepared for each. A detailed financial analysis was
prepared for the preferred option defining build-out costs and
return rates for the project.
The preferred option defines a 20-30 year project build-out based
on 2012 development rates and includes:
90 Rooms of Hotel
790,000 SF of Light Industrial Space
468,500 SF of Flex Space
72,000 SF of Office Space
(with additional office space integrated into “flex”)
270,000 SF of Retail Space
17 Acres of Recreational Development
that could be temporary land use
The project envisions a central greenway, a railroad siding and
spur line, a major north-south boulevard roadway and a new
east-west route with an overpass at Interstate 90. The preferred
option has a 2012 development price tag of $17.5 Million for
infrastructure, roadway, amenity and engineering costs.
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PREFACE i
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Scope of Study 2
1.2 Project Methodology 2
2.0 ECONOMIC & MARKET OVERVIEW 5
2.1 Economy of Montana 6
2.2 Economy of Bozeman 12
3.0 LOCATION & SITE ANALYSIS 15
3.1 Regional Context 16
3.2 Local Context 18
3.3 Land Use Context 27
3.4 Non-Vehicular Transportation Connectivity 29
4.0 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS 30
4.1 Retail Market Overview 31
4.2 Competitive Retail Infrastructure 36
4.3 Retail Trade Area 38
4.4 Retail Demand Quantification 40
5.0 OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS 43
5.1 Office Market Overview 44
5.2 Office Demand Quantification 45
6.0 INDUSTRIAL MARKET ANALYSIS 50
6.1 Industrial Market Overview 51
6.2 Foreign Trade Zones 54
6.3 Industrial Demand Quantification 55
PAGE
7.0 HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS 60
7.1 Hotel Market Overview 61
7.2 Hotel Demand Quantification 63
8.0 RECREATIONAL SECTOR OVERVIEW 68
8.1 Recreational Sector Summary 69
9.0 LAND USE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 74
9.1 Land Use Development Strategy Overview 75
9.2 North Park Positioning Strategy 75
9.3 North Park Demand & Phasing Summary 77
9.4 Comparison of Market Demand to Development Capacity 78
9.5 North Park Land Use Allocation by Parcel 78
Table of Contents
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TABLES PAGE
2.1 Top 20 Employers in Gallatin County by Employment Size 7
2.2 Bozeman Top Employers by Employment Numbers 10
2.3 Top 10 Fastest Growing Occupations by Average Annual
Growth Rate 11
2.4 Top 10 Fastest Growing Occupations by Total Number of
Employed 11
2.5 Bozeman Educational Attainment 13
3.1 North Park Site Development Evaluation Criteria 19
3.2 North Park Site SWOT Analysis 22
4.1 North Park Competitive Retail Inventory 37
4.2 Trade Area Boundary Determinants 38
4.3 Retail Demand Based on Gallatin County as a PTA 41
4.4 Blended Average Market Share Retail Demand for North Park
Site based on Gallatin County as a PTA 41
4.5 Retail Demand Based on City of Bozeman & City of Belgrade
as a PTA 42
4.6 Blended Average Market Share Retail Demand for North Park
Site based on City of Bozeman & City of Belgrade as a PTA 42
5.1 Montana Office Space Demand by 2020 45
5.2 Bozeman Office Employment Growth Forecasts 46
5.3 Bozeman Office Space Demand by Employment Growth 47
5.4 Bozeman Office Space Demand by Population Growth 47
5.5 Office Demand for North Park Site 48
6.1 Bozeman Industrial Demand by Employment Growth 55
6.2 Bozeman Industrial Employment Growth Forecasts 56
6.3 Bozeman Industrial Demand by Population Growth 57
6.4 Industrial Demand for North Park Site 58
7.1 Current & Future Bozeman Hotel Inventory 61
7.2 Bozeman Hotel Demand 64
7.3 Hotel Demand for North Park Site 65
Table of Contents
TABLES PAGE
9.1 Target Market, Price Point & Positioning Summary 76
9.2 Comparison of Market-Driven Demand to Site Development
Capacity 78
9.3 North Park Land Use Demand Summary 79
9.4 North Park Land Use Allocation by Parcel 80
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FIGURES PAGE
6.1 Bozeman Industrial Lease Rate Trends 51
6.2 Competitive Industrial Inventory – Bruce Industrial Park 53
6.3 Character Imagery of Industrial Business Park Formats 59
7.1 Bozeman Hotel Classes 62
7.2 Bozeman Total Hotels by Age 62
7.3 Hotel Family Trees Part A 66
7.4 Hotel Family Trees Part B 67
8.1 Bozeman Community Recreation Needs by 2025 69
8.2 Character Imagery of Regional Recreation Complexes 73
FIGURES PAGE
1.1 Land Use Assessment & Development Strategy Methodology 4
2.1 Montana Population Growth Trends 6
2.2 Montana Countywide Population Distribution 6
2.3 Montana and National Unemployment Rate Comparison 7
2.4 Montana Participation Rate in Active Outdoor Recreation 8
2.5 Montana Tourism Visitors between 1999 and 2011 9
2.6 Leading Montana Industry Clusters 10
2.7 Bozeman Family Income 13
3.1 Regional Context Map 16
3.2 Montana People Per Square Mile by Census Tract 17
3.3 Local Context Map 18
3.4 North Park Site Strengths 20
3.5 North Park Site Challenges 21
3.6 City of Bozeman OCP Designations at North Park Site &
Surrounding Area 27
3.7 City of Bozeman Plat Applications Over Time 28
3.8 City of Bozeman Final Plat Approvals 2011 28
3.9 City of Bozeman Parks, Rec, Open Space & Trails Plan 29
4.1 Bozeman Retail Lease Rate Trends 31
4.2 Bozeman Retail Sectors 32
4.3 Bozeman Retail Sales by Merchandise Category 32
4.4 Gallatin County Retail Sectors 33
4.5 Gallatin County Visitor Expenditures by Category 33
4.6 North Park Competitive Retail Infrastructure 36
4.7 North Park Site Retail Trade Area Map 37
5.1 Bozeman Office Lease Rate Trends 44
5.2 Character Imagery of Office/Tech Business Park Formats 49
Table of Contents
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MXD Development Strategists Ltd. do not warrant that any estimates
contained within the study will be achieved over the identified time
horizons, but that they have been prepared conscientiously and
objectively on the basis of information obtained during the course of
this study. Also, any tenant or sector references made in the report
are for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as
guarantees that they will locate at the North Park site.
This analysis was conducted by MXD Development Strategists Ltd. as
an objective and independent party; and is not an agent of the City of
Bozeman, DNRC or CTA LandWorks by virtue of this or any subsequent
study to be conducted on this matter.
As is customary in an assignment of this type, neither our name nor
the material submitted may be included in a prospectus, or part of
any printed material, or used in offerings or representations in
connection with the sale of securities or participation interest to the
public, without the expressed permission of MXD Development
Strategists Ltd. or the City of Bozeman or DNRC.
MXD Development Strategists Ltd.
September 2012
MXD Development Strategists Ltd (MXD) of Vancouver, Canada, was
commissioned to conduct a Market Analysis & Development Strategy
working with CTA LandWorks (CTA) and for the City of Bozeman and
the Department of Natural Resources & Conservation (DNRC) and the
parcels of land that collectively make up the North Park site (“North
Park”), in Bozeman, Montana.
As part of the CTA Collaborative team and the overall assignment,
MXD was contracted to conduct the Market Analysis, Development
Program and Financial Analysis component. The study was carried out
over the period April to August 2012.
The objective of this study is to document Bozeman’s current retail,
office, industrial and hotel supply and demand metrics in order to
quantify and prepare a development program for the site that could
be articulated into a Concept Master Plan by CTA LandWorks.
Reference material for this report was obtained from, but not limited
to; State of Montana, City of Bozeman, Gallatin County, US Census
Bureau, Montana Office of Tourism, Smith Travel Research, Loop Net,
Grubb & Ellis, NAI Landmark Realty, Montana Workforce Connection
and MXD Development Strategists Ltd.
Preface
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1.0 Introduction
1.1 Scope of Study
MXD Development Strategists Ltd. of Vancouver, Canada (“MXD”) was
commissioned by the City of Bozeman and the Department of Natural
Resources & Conservation (“DNRC”), hereafter referred to as the
“Client”, in collaboration with CTA Architects Engineers Planners in
March, 2012 to conduct a Land Use Assessment & Development
Strategy for the North Park site (“North Park”).
North Park is located on the northern edge of the City of Bozeman in
the State of Montana, just south of the Bozeman Yellowstone
International Airport (formerly Gallatin Field). The site lies on the
east side of the I-90 with nearby multi-modal transportation
connectivity to road, rail and air.
1.2 PROJECT METHODOLOGY
The MXD study was undertaken in a detailed and methodical manner
as illustrated in Figure 1.1, Land Use Assessment & Development
Strategy Methodology.
In Step 1 Macro & Micro Analysis was the gathering of information
stage of the process including various government and private
sources such as the City of Bozeman Official Community Plan, City of
Bozeman Economic Development Plan, City of Bozeman Land Use
Inventory Report and Montana Department of Labor and Industry
Quarterly and Annual reports. Background information was
supplemented by comprehensive fieldwork conducted in the market
by MXD including a Location Analysis to establish the basic
development potential for the site. This includes an analysis of the
region, study of the local retail, office, hotel and industrial
competition and the site conditions to verify that the foundation
requirements of real estate development are present and to which
potential magnitude.
The research analysis was further complemented by MXD’s internal
database on development projects internationally and across North
America, including their format, size, mix and performance.
In Step 2 Real Estate Development Trends have been researched and
presented in the form of representative case study profiles and
imagery to demonstrate potential benchmark projects and attributes
of other successful developments.
Step 3 involved researching Growth Trends, Challenges &
Opportunities with respect to population growth and distribution,
employment forecasts, local and statewide economic initiatives and
local trends in commercial, retail, office and industrial development.
Step 4 performs a Supply Analysis in which local market conditions
and the overall existing competitive infrastructure (retail, office,
industrial and hotel) are evaluated to help provide insight into the
market “voids” and this the strategic positioning of the project. The
competitive infrastructure includes retail, office/business park,
industrial, manufacturing and logistics as well as hotel
accommodation.
The analysis is further refined by Analyzing the Land Use Demand in
Step 5. The various market segments including retail, office,
industrial/logistics and hotel/accommodation are assessed with
respect to their respective demographic, employment and spending
characteristics as determined in the identified trade area.
Finally, Step 6 included the formation of a Conceptual Layout
Planning and Land Use Program for the site, built on the research
and analysis from the previous steps and working with CTA
LandWorks.
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1.0 Introduction
This process includes the allocation of market demand in physical
form, identification of a conceptual site configuration and layout as
well as a buildable area plan and circulation strategy with respect to
internal traffic and access to and from the existing transportation
network.
The market analysis is combined with the preliminary design and mix
programming to identify the recommended development strategy.
The overall land use and development strategy provides
recommendations for the appropriate and optimal land use and
development program and identifies how this program could be
allocated across the site and which types of design forms could be
seen as most compatible and complementary with the vision of the
City of Bozeman and DNRC.
The report is presented in the following sections:
Section 1: Introduction
Section 2: Economic & Market Overview
Section 3: Location & Site Analysis
Section 4: Retail Market Analysis
Section 5: Office Market Analysis
Section 6: Industrial Market Analysis
Section 7: Hotel Market Analysis
Section 8: Recreational Sector Overview
Section 9: Land Use Development Strategy
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1.0 Introduction
Figure 1.1: Land Use Assessment & Development Strategy Methodology
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SECTION 2.0
ECONOMIC & MARKET OVERVIEW
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2.0 Economic & Market Overview
2.1 The Economy of Montana
According to 2010 US Census data, the population for the State of
Montana was just under the million population count at 974,989
residents.
As illustrated in Figure 2.1 the State has been growing exponentially
over the last decade. Gallatin County represents 9% of population
distribution throughout the State, the second highest population after
Yellowstone County at 15%, followed by Missoula County at 11%,
Flathead County at 9% and Cascade County at 8% (refer to Figure
2.2).
Gallatin County is the fastest growing county in Montana, having a
32% growth rate between 2000 and 2010. Estimates forecast that the
population of Gallatin County could surpass 95,000 residents in 2012
and could grow to over 116,000 by 2020. All communities in Gallatin
County saw a population increase, the highest being the City of
Bozeman with an additional 10,000 residents in ten years, a 35.5%
increase for the decade. Current estimates for the City of Bozeman
place the population at almost 39,000 residents or 41% of Gallatin
County.
The City of Belgrade also experienced a significant population
increase from 5,728 residents in 2000 to 7,389 residents in 2010, a
total increase of 29%.
Average annual wages in the Bozeman region are lower than the
national average. In 2010, the annual average wages in the US was
$46,742; compared to Montana at $34,589 and Gallatin County at
$34,108. The region has historically had lower average wages than
the country, but still attracts young workers and families to the area
due to the high quality of life and availability of lifestyle amenities
unique to small town America.
Figure 2.1: Montana State Population Growth Trends
Figure 2.2: Montana County Population Distribution
Source: Montana Department of Labor & Industry (2012)
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Montana has maintained a lower-than-national average
unemployment rate over the past year. As illustrated in Figure 2.3
the State unemployment rate in March 2012 was estimated at 6.2%
compared to the national unemployment rate of 8.2%.
Table 2.1 provides a list of the major employers in Gallatin County
based on number of employees. Class 9 is greater than 1,000
employees; Class 8 is 500-999 employees; Class 7 is 250-499
employees and Class 6 is 100 to 249 employees.
According to these employment trends, job availability is greatest in
the categories of Health Care, Home & Garden and Technology. Other
leading regional industries include Construction, Government,
Manufacturing, Retail and Agriculture.
Source: Bureau of Business & Economic Research, University of Montana (2011)
Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce (2011)
Montana Department of Labor & Industry (2012)
Figure 2.3: Montana & National Unemployment Rate Comparison
Table 2.1: Top 20 Employers in Gallatin County by Employment Size
Business Class Business Class
Albertsons 6 Murdoch's Ranch/Home Supply 6
Bozeman Deacons Hospital 9 Reach Inc.6
Community Food Co-op 6 Ressler Motors 6
Costco 6 Oracle 8
First Security Bank 6 Rosauers 6
Gibson Guitar 6 Target 6
Kenyon Noble Lumber/Hardware 6 Town & Country Foods 6
Lowes 6 Town Pump 6
Martel Construction 6 Wal-Mart 7
McDonald's 6 Zoot Enterprises 6
Top 20 Private Employers in Gallatin County by Employee Size
2.0 Economic & Market Overview
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The Montana Active Outdoor Recreation Economy is a staple in the
regional economy. This sector contributes over $2.5 billion annually
to Montana’s economy, supports 34,000 jobs across Montana,
generates $118 million in annual state tax revenue and produces
nearly $2 billion annually in retail sales. In addition, outdoor
recreational services across Montana accounting for 7.5% of gross
state product.
The target audience of outdoor recreation in Montana comes from
both local and tourist participation, visiting the 6 regions of the state:
(i) Glacier Country; (ii) Russell Country; (iii) Missouri River Country;
(iv) Southeast Montana; (v) Yellowstone Country; and (vi) Goldwest
Country.
Figure 2.4 illustrates that nearly half of the State’s population are
outdoor recreation enthusiasts; 49% of residents hike, 46% of
residents go camping and 33% of residents are cyclists. On a per
capita basis, Montana consists of active communities with residents
who spend a great deal of their disposable time and income on
outdoor recreational activities.
The residual beneficiary of this highly active outdoor audience in
Bozeman are the number of Sporting Goods retailers in town, both
national and local.
Commercial and retail spin-offs from the active outdoor recreational
industry includes outdoor and recreational gear retail sales. This
merchandise includes apparel, footwear, equipment, accessories and
services. In addition, trip-related expenditures include food and
beverage, transportation, entertainment, lodging, souvenirs as well as
gifts and other miscellaneous items.
Source: Outdoor Industry Foundation (2005)
Figure 2.4: Montana Participation Rate in Active Outdoor Recreation
2.0 Economic & Market Overview
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Local recreational amenities in and around Bozeman, particularly
Yellowstone are a prime attraction for tourists.
In 2011, there were an estimated 10.5 million tourists to the State of
Montana. As illustrated in Figure 2.5, there has been a steady
increase in tourism visits between 1999 and 2007. However, the
economic downturn caused a decline in Montana tourism, but this
has slightly recovered since 2009, whereby visitor numbers have
exceeded the levels of 2006.
Of that total, Yellowstone National Park experienced 3.4 million
visitors in 2011, down 6.8% from 2010.
$2.77 billion in travel expenditures
by non-Montana residents
Figure 2.5: Montana Tourism Visitors between 1999-2011
In 2011, Montana saw over $2.77 billion in travel expenditures spent
by non-residents – an overall increase of 10% than 2010 spending.
The total economic contribution of non-residential spending in
Montana was $3.3 billion, with a direct economic impact of
employment creation through tourism industry of 38,340 jobs.
Montana is a regional and national destination, ranking 5th per capita
for tourist spending in the United States in 2009.
Recession
Recovery
2.0 Economic & Market Overview
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Figure 2.6: Leading Montana Industry Clusters
Construction Outdoor
Recreation
Professional,
Scientific & Technical
Education
Manufacturing &
Technology
Health Care &
Social Services
MONTANA
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Top 10 Fastest Growing Occupations in MONTANA 2010 2020
Annual
Growth Rate
%
1 Biochemists and Biophysicists 15 23 4.4
2 Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machinery 48 69 3.7
3 Athletic Trainers 135 190 3.5
4 Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists 67 92 3.2
5 Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating,78 107 3.2
6 Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers 200 273 3.2
7 Helpers--Electricians 56 76 3.1
8 Market Research Analysts 168 228 3.1
9 Actuaries 38 51 3
10 Curators 71 95 3
Top 10 Fastest Growing Occupations in MONTANA 2010 2020 Change
1 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 71,197 78,321 7,124
2 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 44,724 51,711 6,987
3 Construction and Extraction Occupations 29,990 36,219 6,229
4 Sales and Related Occupations 53,629 59,120 5,491
5 Construction Trades Workers 22,255 27,027 4,772
6 Food and Beverage Serving Workers 24,495 28,634 4,139
7 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 26,835 30,512 3,677
8 Retail Sales Workers 32,459 36,019 3,560
9 Healthcare Support Occupations 15,851 18,882 3,031
10 Personal Care and Service Occupations 16,841 19,723 2,882
Source: Montana Workforce Informer, June 2012
Table 2.4: Top 10 Fastest Growing Occupations in Montana by Change in Total Number of Employees
Table 2.3: Top 10 Fastest Growing Occupations in Montana by Average Annual Growth Rate
2.0 Economic & Market Overview
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2.2 The Economy of Bozeman
Bozeman’s economy much like the State is anchored around the
industries highlighted in Figure 2.7, at the core of which lie Health
Care and Education, while growing and further targeted sectors
include Manufacturing and Technology.
According to the US Census data 2010, the median household income
for the City of Bozeman was $56,683 per family. As illustrated in
Figure 2.8, over 59% of families make over $50,000 per year. For
nonfamily households, the median income was $30,499 per resident.
Overall, there is $26,038 dollars on a per capita basis in Bozeman.
In Bozeman, the highest wages by industry are found in
Finance/Insurance, Transportation/Warehousing/Utilities and
Professional/Scientific/Technical industries at $47,650, $31,933 and
$30,851 salaries respectively per worker per year. The lowest paying
industries are Accommodation/Food Services, Retail Trade and
Arts/Entertainment/Recreation industries at $10,705, $16,467 and
$14,859 salaries per worker per year.
The cost of living in Bozeman is high relative to the average income
on a per capita basis. In fact, 51% of housing renters spend over 30%
or more of their household income on housing, which is above the
standard housing affordability measurement. In addition and
compared to the rest of Montana, Bozeman has the highest cost of
living across the entire state.
As illustrated in Table 2.2, the two most significant employment
nodes within the City of Bozeman are Montana State University and
the Bozeman Deaconess Hospital, providing a total of 2,679 jobs and
1,238 jobs respectively.
Source: US Census Bureau (2010)
City of Bozeman Economic Development Plan (2009)
Table 2.2: Bozeman Top Employers by Employment Numbers
2.0 Economic & Market Overview
Company # of Employees
Montana State University 2,679
Bozeman Deaconess Hospital 1,238
Bozeman Public School District 587
Gallatin County Government 460
Oracle 400
Wal-Mart 370
City of Bozeman 351
Kenyon-Noble Lumber Company 236
Williams Plumbing & Heating 200
Zoot Enterprises 177
Costco Wholesale 176
Bozeman Community Food Co-op 170
Simkins-Hallin Lumber Company 169
Murdoch's Ranch & Home Supply 160
Martel Construction 150
Gibson Guitar-Montana Division 140
Billion Auto Group 135
Bozeman Daily Chronicle 128
Rosaur's Supermarket 123
Best Western GranTree Inn 115
Target 110
City of Bozeman Largest Public & Private Employers
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All other major employers in Bozeman employ in the range of 100 to
600 employees per company. The City is highly dependent upon the
Educational and the Health Services sector industries.
Accordingly, North Park represent a significant opportunity for the
City and DNRC to provide the location and framework for a
diversification in the economy toward sectors such as
Manufacturing and Technology.
Bozeman has the highest percentage of people age 25 years and older
with a Bachelor’s Degree or greater in Montana (refer to Table 2.5).
Montana State University is Gallatin county’s largest employer with
2,307 full-time faculty and staff, 668 part-time employees and 551
graduate teaching and research assistants. The largely academic
presence in Bozeman fosters a think-tank and entrepreneur culture
for new and progressive business industries.
According to the Kauffman Foundation, Montana has the highest level
of entrepreneurial activity in the nation with approximately 600
entrepreneurs per 100,000 residents. A number of these small, start-
up companies are directly related to the programs, research projects
and business culture that is fostered by Montana State University,
especially in the technology industry sector at the innovation campus.
Population Age Total #High School Grad or
Higher
Bachelor's Degree or
Higher
25 to 34 7,063 98.7%55.4%
35 to 44 3,641 95.6%55.5%
45 to 64 6,258 95.4%54.5%
65+2,496 90.7%44.5%
Table 2.5: Bozeman Educational Attainment
Source: Montana Department of Labor & Industry (2012)
US Census Bureau (2010)
Figure 2.7: Bozeman Family Incomes
Bozeman is a Smart City with an
Entrepreneur Culture
2.0 Economic & Market Overview
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With each entrepreneur start-up company employing between 1 and
5 persons, and the high per capita entrepreneur businesses for the
local area, Bozeman has a unique business niche of a thriving
boutique business culture. Having a numerous small companies as
opposed to a few mega companies allows for community economic
diversity as well as community employment stability.
Major industry sectors in Bozeman generally reflect the industry
trends in the rest of Montana. The technology sector is booming in
Bozeman, with specialization leading towards advanced
manufacturing, laser optics, information technology,
biotech/bioscience and agri-enviro tech firms.
The technology cluster’s top companies include Golden Helix
(bioinformatics), LigoCyte Pharmaceuticals (clinical drug
development), Oracle (customer relationship management) and ILX
Lightwave (phototonics).
The City of Bozeman has implemented favourable economic
development and economic incentive tools that also balance the
urban aesthetics and renewal districts of the various neighborhood
communities.
Firstly, Bozeman businesses benefit from the no general sales taxes
on businesses within the State of Montana.
The State has been ranked as the most business friendly state by
Forbes Magazine, 6th in the nation for best business tax climate by
The Tax Foundation and 3rd in the nation for the best sales tax
climate for business by Business Facilities magazine. Source: City of Bozeman Economic Development Plan (2009)
The State also supports growing industries in Bozeman through
incentive programs such as the Montana Technology Innovation
Partnership to promote technology start-up companies.
In addition to state-wide innovation benefits, the City of Bozeman has
a Tax Increment Financing (TIF) program that encourages
reinvestment, redevelopment and revitalization of distressed
properties in specially designated districts throughout the City. There
are 4 TIF districts within the City of Bozeman, one of which is North
Park. This TIF designation allows for financing current infrastructure
improvements through ‘future gains in property taxes’ that can, in
theory, increase due to raised property values of real estate due to
site improvements and design enhancements.
The combination of smarts, business savyness, supportive political
atmosphere, growing population and positive industry reports
indicate that Bozeman is in the position to incubate an economic
landmark node that caters to local businesses today and in the
future.
Bozeman has a thriving
Boutique Business Culture
6th best business tax climate
(The Tax Foundation )
Most business friendly state
(Forbes Magazine)
3rd best sales tax climate
(Business Facilities magazine)
2.0 Economic & Market Overview
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SECTION 3.0
LOCATION & SITE ANALYSIS
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3.1 Regional Context
Figure 3.1 illustrates the regional context of Bozeman. The City of
Bozeman is located in southwestern Montana; the municipal gateway
to Yellowstone National Park. According to the US Census Bureau
(2010), the total population in Bozeman was 37,280 residents. The
nearby and smaller City of Belgrade had a total population of 7,389
residents in 2010.
3.0 Location & Site Analysis
Figure 3.1: Regional Context Map
Source: US Census Bureau (2010)
Montana Department of Labor & Industry (2012)
Bozeman is the primary business, social, cultural and recreational hub
of Gallatin County, which with a total 2010 population of 89,513
residents.
Current trends in population migration patterns suggest that
Bozeman is a Boomerang Community – meaning that residents leave
at some point but return. This is particularly common for local and
foreign young people who attend post-secondary education and then
leave Bozeman to pursue other career opportunities out of town or
out of state.
At some point, these former MSU students
return to Bozeman for reasons including
furthering their career, excellent quality of life,
lifestyle or to raise a family.
They leave and then return back to their
“hometown”, especially if their families reside
in Bozeman where they can receive livability
help by way of child care relief or financially
getting on their feet.
Bozeman has a young
Boomerang Generation
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3.0 Location & Site Analysis
Source: US Census Bureau (2010)
Figure 3.2: Montana People Per Square Mile by Census Tract
As illustrated in Figure 3.2 the City of Bozeman is situated in one of
the highest density locations in the State of Montana, with the
surrounding small town and rural communities creating a strong
population catchment area.
Compared to the eastern side of the State, which is rural and scarcely
populated with less than 1 person per square mile, Bozeman is well
situated to attract and pull investors, tourists and business from other
parts of the higher density communities in south central Montana, as
well as in the Intermountain West region
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3.2 Local Context
North Park is situated northern edge of the City of Bozeman. As
illustrated in Figure 3.3, the site is located on the highly visible east
side of the well-travelled I-90 State highway, forming a long
continuous stretch of future valuable highway frontage.
3.0 Location & Site Analysis
6 miles (7 minute drive)
146 miles (2 hours & 17 minute drive)
Figure 3.3: Local Context Map
The smaller City of Belgrade, located approximately 6 miles north
west of the North Park site is the closest municipality to Bozeman
within an approximate 7-minute drive. To the East, the City of Billings
is approximately 146 miles driving distance with an approximate 2 to
2 ½ hr drive.
Other nearby communities include Livingston, Four Corners and
Three Forks.
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Table 3.1: North Park Site Development Evaluation Criteria
3.0 Location & Site Analysis
Site Criteria Current Site Qualities Degree of Opportunity
- Strong Visibility from I-90 Frontage Road on West and East sides of the Site
- Terrain is relatively flat with good visibility from adjacent commercial and residential
neighbourhoods
- Located on I-90, the site is accessible for highway commuter traffic travelling between the City of
Bozeman and the City of Belgrade
- The site is within 7.5 miles from the Bozeman Yellowstone Int'l Airport via I-90
- Bozeman is the first major City between Billings and Butte, and the gateway to Yellowstong National
Park
- I-90 is a major traffic generator
- Low drive time for residents within the City of Bozeman and the greater Bozeman area
- Existing Red Wing Drive provides site access to the East
- There is no frontage access road to the site on the West side of the site
- Existing rail tracks to the north east side of the site limits access via vehicles but allows for rail- to-
development connectivity
- Existing Mandeville Farm House
- Hotel Cluster to the north west of the site
- Existing big-box/large-format commercial retail development located west across I-90
- Vacant and serviced commercial retail land available for development located west across I-90
- Light Industrial/Flex Business Park/Storage located to the south and south east of the site
- Existing large format commercial retail development is located west across I-90
- Other existing large format commercial development located in different area nodes of the City
- Industrial land uses primarily located in Belgrade, Four Corners and site-scattered in Bozeman
Parking - Size of site parcel can allow for sufficient parking area High
- Excellent frontage along I-90 West and East
- Pear Shape allows for large and/or small plots, natural municipal landmark into Bozeman
- Existing watercourse/stream divides the parcel, limiting plot size and shape
- Site is clear of most vegetation with interim agricultural activity
- Size of site is the largest contiguous piece of property in Bozeman for a master planned development
TOTAL HIGH
Size & Shape High
Site Accessibilty Moderate
Adjacent Land Uses High
Potential Competitive Sites Low
Local Accessibility High
Visibility High
Regional Accessibility High
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3.0 Location & Site Analysis
Figure 3.4: North Park Site STRENGTHS
SITE
Proximity
to Airport
High Commuter
Traffic Volume
Connectivity to Active Rail Line
Existing Red Wing Drive Access Road
Adjacent to major interchange
for regional accessibility
‘First Impression’ landmark parcel into the City of Bozeman
Strong Visibility from I-90
Growing Residential
Population (West)
Established Hotel Cluster
Potential for green space connectivity
Established Light Industrial Uses
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Figure 3.5: North Park Site CHALLENGES
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….
•Strong ‘wrap-around’ 360 visibility from I-90
•Designated as a “Tax Increment Financing” (TIF)
Districts by the City of Bozeman
•Growing Residential Population West of site
•Short Drive Time for local population
•Flat topography, mostly cleared of vegetation with
some ongoing agricultural activities
•Multi-modal connectivity to road, rail and air
•Large parcel size is the only continuous parcel of its
kind in Bozeman - increases development options
•Existing watershed divides the site, limiting parcel
configuration
•Limited access to the Site from I90
•Traffic congestion at I-90 intersection south of the
site
•Limited transportation (vehicle, cycling, pedestrian)
connectivity from East to West
•Form an ‘economic cluster’ of activities
•Build a rail spur for land-to-rail connectivity
•Utilize the multi-model connectivity by establishing a
Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) to incubate importing and
exporting of goods, generating opportunities for
existing companies to grow and allow for
entrepreneurs to ‘start-up’ and capitalize on the
economic synergy
•Design with the watershed to create amenity feature
•Create ‘First Impression’ landmark parcel into the
City of Bozeman
•Surrounded with new, well-designed Commercial,
Retail and Hotel development projects
•Competing with Big Box and other Large
Format Retail Development in North West
Bozeman
•Established Competitive Hotel Cluster north
of Site
•Well-established industrial employment node and
economic activity located in the City of Belgrade
west of the site
Table 3.2: North Park Site SWOT Analysis
3.0 Location & Site Analysis
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3.0 Location & Site Analysis
North Park Site - Current Status Photos
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3.0 Location & Site Analysis
Figure 3.6: City of Bozeman Official Community Plan Designations at North Park Site & Surrounding Area
3.3 Land Use Context
According to the Bozeman Community Plan (“BCP”), the North Park
lands, as shown in Figure 3.6 are currently zoned for Industrial Land
Uses for the purpose of manufacturing, warehousing and
transportation/hub activities. However, pending the results of the
Market Analysis, the site could be subject to rezoning.
Source: City of Bozeman Official Community Plan (2009)
As illustrated in Figure 3.6, the surrounding land uses are designated
for Regional Commercial and Services, Community Commercial Mixed
Use and some Residential, Present Rural and Parks, Open Space and
Recreational Lands. The adjacent land uses should be considered for
complementarity and compatibility when examining any potential
land use amendments
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3.0 Location & Site Analysis
Development and City Plat Applications are good indications of the
local economy and development patterns over time. Figure 3.7
shows that development was quiet in the mid and late 1990s, and
began increasing in the early 2000s. The City of Bozeman had a spike
in Plat Applications in 2004 and 2005, with a number of applications
being approved and finalised in 2006.
However, as evidenced in Figures 3.7 and Figure 3.8, the national and
global economic downturn had a significant negative consequence on
the Bozeman development community.
In 2008, Plat Applications and Approvals essentially reached a
screeching halt. Starting in 2009, the economy started to recover but
as of yet, the number of Plat Applications and Final Plat Lot approvals
have not yet reached the numbers from 1996.
By and large, development in all real estate sectors within the City of
Bozeman has a long way to bounce back and this transition will most
likely be a slow and cautious rebound. This rebound will have a
direct impact on the timing of the potential full buildout of North
Park and as such phasing of the development will be critical, as will
patience.
Further to the historic development and Plat Application trends, the
City of Bozeman’s Final Platted Commercial Lots in 2010 was minimal
(refer to Figure 3.8). In 2010, there were a total of 129 applications
for Single Household Residence, while only 2 Industrial applications
and 1 Commercial Application. Similarly in 2011, there were only 3
Final Platted Lots in total, all of which were Commercial.
As illustrated in Figure 3.8, the real estate market is largely
dominated by the Residential Sector. This indicates that investors
have lesser interest in other forms of development such as industrial
or commercial projects, and that Residential development projects,
while still slower are considered as more favourable during the
economic recovery time period.
Figure 3.7: City of Bozeman Plat Applications Trends Over Time
Figure 3.8: City of Bozeman Plat Final Platted Lots by Type in 2010
Recession
Recovery
Source: City of Bozeman Annual Report (2011)
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3.4 Non-Vehicular Transportation Connectivity
As part of the active community spirit and outdoor recreational
culture of Bozeman, the City has a comprehensive network of non-
vehicular transportation corridors that links parks, open space, trails
and designated bike routes throughout the City.
As illustrated in Figure 3.9, North Park is surrounded by foot and
cycling trail networks that could potentially be woven into the
development strategy if planned and deemed appropriate.
Source: City of Bozeman (2007)
Figure 3.9: City of Bozeman Parks, Rec, Open Space, Trails Plan
However, the less populated eastern residential communities (i.e.
east of I-90) have limited direct cycling connectivity to western
residential communities (i.e. west of I-90). This disconnect represents
an issue considering the number of school children that may have to
travel from east to west for their education.
In light of this, there is a potential opportunity for the development
at North Park to incorporate vehicular transportation upgrades in
the form of an I-90 overpass or underpass along Mandeville Drive to
Baxter Lane, as well as pedestrian/cycling infrastructure in order to
safely connect the northeast and northwest communities.
North Park can be a vessel for community connectivity - north to
south and east to west.
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SECTION 4.0
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
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4.0 Retail Market Analysis
4.1 Retail Market Overview
The Retail Real Estate Market is a balance of downtown-oriented
shops and large format commercial retail development. Prior to
2002, the City of Bozeman was losing retail expenditures from the
local population from residents travelling to other regional-serving
communities, such as Billings at Big Box shopping centers. Since then,
the City adopted a “Big Box” Ordinance, allowing for large format
retail development projects to enter the local market. Some of the
newer stores in Bozeman as a result include Home Depot, Lowes, Bed
Bath & Beyond, REI and Cost Plus World Market. At the same time,
the City of Bozeman has successfully implemented a higher quality
urban design mandate on these large format retail projects including
enhanced landscaping, setbacks, architectural design guidelines and
in some cases, limiting the size and format of the building footprint to
a maximum of 75,000 sf.
For all retail formats In 2011, there was a total Retail inventory of 2.5
million sf (including automotive), averaging out to approximately 65 sf
per capita, for all retail space (i.e. including not just organized
shopping center space). In the United States, the typical average
urban market averages a total retail space per capita in the range of
40 sf. However, recognizing the regional-serving nature of the
Bozeman market, if factoring into the equation that most of the
patronage comes from Gallatin County, the actual retail space per
capita is more likely to be in the range of 36 sf. (This assumes an
additional 750,000 sf of retail space in Gallatin County divided by a
County population of approximately 95,000).
As of the second quarter of 2011, retail vacancy was averaging around
7% (Note: a healthy retail environment should be around 4% to 7%).
As summarized in Figure 4.1, current average asking Lease Rates have
remained stable since 2010 in the range of $10.00 to $12.00 per sf,
although this does vary from $9.00 for Neighborhood scale to $25.00
for Power Center formats and on the quality of the development
itself.
Source: Grubb & Ellis (Q4, 2011)
City of Bozeman Annual Report (2010)
NAI Landmark Realty Metropolitan Area Market Overview, January 2012
Figure 4.1: Bozeman Retail Lease Rate Trends
Retail Lease Rates Low High Avg Vacancy
Downtown $13.00 $18.00 $15.50 7.0%
Neighborhood $8.00 $10.00 $9.00 8.0%
Community Power Center $16.00 $25.00 $20.50 8.0%
Regional Malls $18.00 $25.00 $21.50 3.0%
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Figure 4.3: Bozeman Retail Sales by Merchandise Category
Figure 4.2: Bozeman Retail Sectors Historic retail data reporting on the number of
establishments per retail sector in Bozeman and
Gallatin County can be reviewed in Figures 4.2
and 4.4.
As illustrated in Figure 4.2, the Top 3 Retail
Merchandise categories for the City of Bozeman
with respect to number of establishments are: (i)
Miscellaneous Store Retailers; (ii) Clothing &
Accessories; and (iii) Sporting/Hobby/Books/
Music.
Figure 4.3 highlights two (2) merchandise
categories that stand out with respect to retail
sales: Motor Vehicles/Parts Dealers; 24
establishments and $150,497,000 in annual sales;
and Food & Beverage; 20 establishments with
$104,584,000 in annual sales (2002).
The number of establishments for Gallatin County
as a whole reflects the retail trends in the City of
Bozeman. Based on the number of
establishments, Figure 4.4 shows the Top 3 Retail
Merchandise categories being Miscellaneous
Store Retailers, Sporting/Hobby/Books/Music and
Building/Garden Supply.
Source: City of Bozeman Economic Development Plan (2009)
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Figure 4.5: Gallatin County Visitor Expenditures by Category
Source:
City of Bozeman Economic Development Plan (2009)
According to the Institute for Tourism and Recreation
Research (refer to Figure 4.5), total Gallatin County
Visitor Expenditures totaled $601,987,015 as
reported in the City of Bozeman Economic
Development Plan 2009.
Retail categories comprising Restaurants, Retail and
Grocery totaled $271.8 million, with Restaurants
($141.3 million) accounting for 52% of that total.
Estimates by the Institute for Tourism & Recreation
Research suggest that the Bozeman region attracts
an annual tourist base in the range of 2 million non-
resident visitors, 68% of which visit Yellowstone but
spend at least one night in Bozeman.
Figure 4.4: Gallatin County Retail Sectors
4.0 Retail Market Analysis
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In addition to being an entrepreneurial culture, residents in the City
of Bozeman can be described as having a very conscientious
consumer culture.
There are benefits to buying from franchise businesses, such as
providing affordable options for consumers. That said, there are
numerous reasons to maintain a local business culture. One reason is
it keeps the character of communities unique compared to other
neighborhoods in the City or other cities found regionally or
nationally. This is especially attractive to tourists who seek ‘different
than the average’ commercial retail places.
The City of Bozeman has concentrated and cultivated a strong local
business environment in the downtown core, primarily along East
Main Street.
The local businesses fits well within the historic charm of downtown.
In addition, local shops often have a strong economic ripple effect to
other local businesses, such as purchasing produce from regional
farms. This keeps money in the community.
Entrepreneurs and skilled workers are more likely to invest in and
establish their careers or companies in communities that preserve
their one-of-a-kind businesses and distinctive character. The
inspiration is contagious and benefits other sectors of the real estate
market.
It will be important for North Park’s potential retail program (amount
and mix) to recognize the strong efforts at establishing and promoting
a local retail culture, while ensuring stable growth into the future.
Bozeman has a conscientious
consumer culture; they think local
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4.2 Competitive Retail Infrastructure
The nature and type of competition is a critical component for
evaluating the supply and demand for the retail market.
Major retail clusters and corridors within the City of Bozeman must
be considered in order to understand how the retail sector functions
within the community.
Figure 4.6 and Table : 4.1 document the major retail areas and nodes
within Bozeman, identifying the approximate drive time to the North
Park site, format, estimated size, tenant composition and other
characteristics.
The area west of North Park along N 19th Ave represents a major
retail corridor, within which many large developable sites remain
available. The propensity of retailers to cluster suggests N 19th Ave
will still be the preferred location for short and medium term retail
developments of significance. Figure 4.6: North Park Competitive Retail Infrastructure
MAP KEY
Commercial Corridor
Enclosed Shopping Center
Power Center & Strip Retail
Neighborhood Commercial
1
3
4
5
6
7
SITE
2
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Table 4.1: North Park Competitive Retail Infrastructure
The Bozeman Retail Real Estate Market has had an influx of large
format commercial development projects since 2003. These
developments have been increasingly concentrated in the north
sector of Bozeman (along N 19th Ave) due to the large parcel
availability.
In fact, there are still a number of serviced lots slated for large format
commercial retail development when the market permits, especially
in the East Valley Center development – directly across North Park
West of I-90.
4.0 Retail Market Analysis
NO.NAME LOCATION
DISTANCE TO
MANDEVILLE FORMAT ANCHORS OTHER PRIMARY TENANTS VACANCY
1 East Valley Center N. 19th Avenue at Dead
Man's Gulch and East
Valley Center Road,
northwest sector
0.3 miles Large Format/Big
Box and Strip Retail
Costco, Bob Ward &
Sons Sporting Goods
PetSmart, Bed Bath & Beyond, Staples, Serviced,
Vacant land
available
2 Stoneridge Square N. 19th Avenue between
W. Oak Street and
Tschache Lane
0.7 mi Large Format/Big
Box and Strip Retail
Lowe's Home
Improvement, REI, Home
Depot
Wholesale Sports, Old Chicago, Ihop,
Taco Del Mar, Office Depot
Serviced,
Vacant land
available
3 Northgate/Westlake
Shopping Center
N. 7th Avenue and W.
Oak Street
1.7 mi Large Format/Big
Box and Strip Retail
Wal-Mart K-Mart, Applebees, Arby's
4 Bozeman Gateway
Shopping Center
W. Main/Huffine Lane
and Harmon Stream
Boulevard
4.6 mi Large Format Strip
Commercial Retail
Rosauer's Supermarket,
Kohl's
Bank of Bozeman Serviced,
Vacant land
available
5 Gallatin Valley Mall W. Main/Huffine Lane
and Harmon Stream
Boulevard
4.6 mi Enclosed Shopping
Mall
Barnes & Noble Hollywood Theatre Gallatin, JC Penney,
Victoria's Secret, Sears Hometown Store
6 Four Squares North Rouse Avenue
between I-90 and E.
Griffin Drive
1.1 mi Neighbourhood
Commercial
The Daily Coffee Bar &
Bakery, Planet Natural
Lone Mountain, Refuge Sustainable
Building Center
7 Downtown Core East/West Main Street 1.7 mi Commercial
Corridor
Community Food Co-op,
Bangtail Bicycle Shop,
Bozeman Running Co.,
Helly Hansen,
Schnee's Boots and Shoes, Cactus
Records Gifts & More, Chalet Sports,
Universal Athletic, Chocolate Moose,
Great Rocky Mountain Toy Company,
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4.3 Retail Trade Area
A Retail Trade Area was delineated for the potential development
project at North Park. A trade area is the geographic catchment area
of a potential consumer population from which the site could attract
the majority of its most consistent patronage. Identifying a trade
area for North Park is essential to understand the market potential
available to the proposed development from the surrounding
residential neighborhoods and surrounding employment nodes.
This type of information paints a picture as to the type and form of
tenants that are warranted in the area and which could be supported
by the local population. The typical trade area criteria and principles
are outlined in Table 4.2.
Typically, trade areas are subdivided based on physical distance
and/or travel time. These subdivisions include a Primary Trade Area
(PTA) from which the majority of local Trade Area business is
expected to originate from.
Outside of the PTA is the Secondary Trade Area (STA) where
consumers are likely to visit the development site on an infrequent
basis. In some larger city markets, a third trade area or Tertiary Trade
Area (TTA) is established usually for development projects to provide
a unique-to-market destination shopping, dining and entertainment
experience.
Figure 4.7 depicts a more regional Trade Area similar to that which
would be used by the Gallatin Valley Mall. However, when taking into
account the North Park site, its vision as well as the many attributes
articulated in Table 4.2, the most reasonable retail Trade Area for
North Park encompasses the area shown as PTA Gallatin County. This
is also the area within which the majority of the regions employment
base would be sourced.
Table 4.2: Trade Area Boundary Determinants
The North Park Total PTA comprising Gallatin, Park, Madison and
Broadwater Counties, totals over 122,000 residents.
The PTA Gallatin County has an estimated population of 95,547
(2012) resulting in potential retail spending in the magnitude of $1.15
billion .
Accordingly, it can be seen that the majority of the population base
and spending is likely to be derived from Gallatin County as it pertains
to future demand at North Park.
4.0 Retail Market Analysis
1 Transportation networks, including streets and highways,
which affect access, travel times, commuting and
employment distribution patterns;
2 Major infrastructure projects both planned or under
development which will affect future travel patterns;
3 The development vision, including an understanding of its
site characteristics and potential target ‘audience’;
4 The local and regional competitive retail environment,
including future competitors under proposal or development;
5 The project’s proposed non-retail generative uses and their
relationship within the wider market;
6 Significant natural and man-made barriers (e.g. water
features, highways and industrial areas);
7 De facto barriers resulting from notable socio-economic
differentiation;
8 Patterns of existing and future residential and commercial
development.
Trade Area Boundary Determinants
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Figure 4.7.: North Park Site Trade Area Map
Total Retail Trade Area of
177,000 residents in 2012
spending $2.1 billion
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4.4 Retail Demand Quantification
The process for quantifying the potential retail demand at North Park
includes two methodologies.
The first step includes an examination and analysis of retail spending
patterns for the likely retail Trade Areas, applying per capita retail
spending against new population growth.
The second step includes a forecast of retail demand driven by new
population growth within that same trade area, but measured against
a more sensitized per capita space ratio, which in this case is
estimated to be 20 sf/capita.
Accordingly and because each approach will lead to different demand
forecasts, a blended average of the two approaches articulated above
is calculated against which a market share for North Park could be
applied, thereby yielding benchmarks for cumulative demand over
time (refer to Tables 4.3 to 4.6). For the purposes of this demand
forecasting, the time frame utilized ranges from 2012 to 2030.
In addition to the latter quantitative approaches, the overall demand
and application of market shares reflects an understanding of the
current market performance (i.e. vacancy, lease rates, new
developments etc.) as well as an understanding of the site`s strengths
and weaknesses.
As documented, the most likely Trade Area for any retail development
at North Park is to be sourced from the PTA Gallatin County and its
estimated 95,000 residents.
However, within Gallatin County, it is even more conceivable given
the site`s location and envisioned cross-section of land uses, not to
mention limitations regarding direct highway access that the ``core``
trade area could well be the City of Bozeman and City of Belgrade and
the approximate 46,000 residents therein.
Tables 4.3 & 4.4 illustrate the forecasted demand using Gallatin
County as a Primary Trade Area.
In this trade area analysis and demand forecast, the demand
generated by new resident retail spending is estimated to grow from
80,000 sf in 2012 to 1.4 million sf by 2030. This demand is for the
entire trade area representing Gallatin County.
Similarly, using a per capita ratio of 20 sf which is consistent with the
International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) range for organized
shopping center space (either enclosed or power center), the
forecasted demand based on new population growth could range
from 61,000 sf in 2012 to just under 1 million sf by 2030.
When applying a reasonable and feasible 5% market share (refer to
Table 4.4) of this total forecasted demand to North Park, recognizing
the site’s attributes and constraints as well as current market
performance and future competition, suggests North Park could
support as much as 583,000 sf by 2030. However, it is also important
to be cognizant of the site’s carrying capacity (i.e. how much land can
be made available for retail), as well as understanding whom any
potential tenants could be and how they must respect and balance
with the existing retail and consumer culture in Bozeman.
Accordingly, Tables 4.5 & 4.6, provide the same analysis but using the
combined City of Bozeman and City of Belgrade as the Primary Trade
Area.
As such, demand generated by new resident retail spending in the
City of Bozeman & City of Belgrade is estimated to grow from 22,000
sf in 2012 to 566,000 sf by 2030.
Similarly, using the per capita approach the demand could range from
17,000 sf in 2012 to just under 400,000 sf by 2030.
When applying a reasonable and feasible 5% market share (refer to
Table 4.6) of the City of Bozeman & City of Belgrade total forecasted
demand, suggests North Park could support in the range of 220,000
sf by 2030.
Therefore, it could reasonably be expected that the retail demand by
2030 could be in the supportable range of 250,000 sf to 350,000 sf.,
though phasing of the demand would be warranted and justified.
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Table 4.3: Retail Demand Based On Gallatin County as Primary Trade Area
Table 4.4: Blended Average Market Share Retail Demand For North Park Site Based on Gallatin County as Primary Trade Area
Mandeville Properties Feasible Cumulative Retail Market Share of Retail Trade Area Demand (PTA Gallatin County)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
Bozeman Demand Blended
Average (sf)69,962 142,670 218,236 296,772 345,115 394,705 445,575 497,768 551,313 806,542 1,197,216
Mandeville Marketshare 5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%
Mandeville Feasible Retail
Space (sf)3,498 7,134 10,912 14,839 17,256 19,735 22,279 24,888 27,566 40,327 59,861
Cumulative (sf)3,498 10,632 21,543 36,382 53,638 73,373 95,652 120,540 148,106 323,616 582,697
Retail Demand Through Expenditure Growth - PTA Gallatin County
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
Per Cap Retail Spending $11,970 $12,217 $12,469 $12,726 $12,989 $13,257 $13,531 $13,814 $14,100 $15,633 $17,344
Population Growth 95,547 98,715 101,988 105,370 107,439 109,549 111,700 113,893 116,130 126,590 142,092
New Population Growth 3,066 3,168 3,273 3,382 2,069 2,110 2,151 2,193 2,237 2,165 3,245
New Spending $36,704,306 $38,703,801 $40,811,903 $43,034,158 $26,875,886 $27,969,056 $29,107,703 $30,300,025 $31,534,659 $33,842,060 $56,281,280
Sales Productivity $467 $472 $476 $481 $486 $491 $496 $501 $506 $531 $559
Annual Retail Demand by Spending SF 78,596 82,057 85,670 89,440 55,304 56,984 58,717 60,517 62,359 63,674 100,754
Cumulative Retail Demand by Spending SF 78,596 160,653 246,323 335,763 391,067 448,051 506,768 567,285 629,644 930,904 1,402,210
Shopping Centre Per Capita Space Ratio (sf/cap)20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Annual Retail Demand by Per Capita Space Ratio
SF 61,327 63,361 65,461 67,632 41,383 42,195 43,024 43,869 44,730 43,296 64,900
Cumulative Retail Demand by Per Capita Space
Ratio SF 61,327 124,688 190,149 257,781 299,164 341,359 384,382 428,251 472,981 682,181 992,221
Source: MXD Development Strategists 2012, US Census Bureau 2010 , Environics Analytics/Claritas 2010 and International Council of Shopping Centers “Mountain Mall Sales Productivity 2011)
4.0 Retail Market Analysis
North Park Marketshare
North Park Feasible Retail
North Park Properties Feasible Cumulative Retail Market Share of Retail Trade Area Demand (PTA Gallatin County)
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Mandeville Properties Feasible Cumulative Retail Market Share of Retail Trade Area Demand (PTA City of Bozeman & City of Belgrade)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
Bozeman Demand Blended
Average (sf)19,705 39,943 60,728 82,076 104,004 126,527 149,664 173,436 197,857 330,406 482,372
Mandeville Marketshare 5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%
Mandeville Feasible Retail
Space (sf)985 1,997 3,036 4,104 5,200 6,326 7,483 8,672 9,893 16,520 24,119
Cumulative (sf)985 2,982 6,019 10,123 15,323 21,649 29,132 37,804 47,697 116,683 221,662
Table 4.5: Retail Demand for City of Bozeman & City of Belgrade as Primary Trade Area
Table 4.6: Blended Average Market Share Retail Demand for North Park Properties Based on City of Bozeman & City of Belgrade y as Primary Trade Area
Retail Demand Through Expenditure Growth - PTA City of Bozeman & Belgrade
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
Per Cap Retail Spending $11,970 $12,217 $12,469 $12,726 $12,989 $13,257 $13,531 $13,814 $14,100 $15,633 $17,344
Population Growth 46,379 47,260 48,161 49,080 50,018 50,977 51,955 52,954 53,974 59,406 65,436
New Population Growth 864 882 900 919 939 958 978 999 1,020 1,132 1,257
New Spending $10,338,016 $10,772,729 $11,225,758 $11,697,783 $12,190,446 $12,703,575 $13,238,899 $13,800,257 $14,382,584 $17,700,024 $21,801,887
Sales Productivity $467 $472 $476 $481 $486 $491 $496 $501 $506 $531 $559
Annual Retail Demand by Spending SF 22,137 22,840 23,564 24,312 25,085 25,882 26,706 27,563 28,441 33,303 39,029
Cumulative Retail Demand by Spending SF 22,137 44,977 68,541 92,853 117,938 143,821 170,526 198,089 226,530 382,989 566,317
Shopping Centre Per Capita Space Ratio (sf/cap)20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Annual Retail Demand by Per Capita Space Ratio
SF 17,273 17,636 18,006 18,384 18,770 19,165 19,568 19,980 20,401 22,644 25,141
Cumulative Retail Demand by Per Capita Space
Ratio SF 17,273 34,909 52,915 71,299 90,069 109,234 128,803 148,783 169,183 277,823 398,427
Source: MXD Development Strategists 2012, US Census Bureau 2010 , Environics Analytics/Claritas 2010 and International Council of Shopping Centers “Mountain Mall Sales Productivity 2011)
4.0 Retail Market Analysis
North Park Properties Feasible Cumulative Retail Market Share of Retail Trade Area Demand (PTA City of Bozeman & City of Belgrade)
North Park Marketshare
North Park Feasible Retail
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SECTION 5.0
OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS
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Office Market Analysis
5.1 Office Market Overview
In 2011, the total Office space inventory was estimated to
approximately 3.8 million sf. Based on the population total of 37,280
residents from the US Census, this averages out to approximately
101.9 sf of office per capita.
However, since Bozeman is the major office center for Gallatin
County, much like the retail market, when factoring a population of
approximately 95,000 residents, the actual per capita ratio is more
accurately portrayed as 40 sf per capita.
Bozeman’s economy is harnessed by Education, Government and
Health Care with support service sectors in technology research,
professional/scientific industries and business, finance and real estate
sectors. Because these industry categories require office space, and
since these industry sectors dominant the economic landscape of
Bozeman, the high ratio of office sf per capita is somewhat
understandable.
Regardless though, this is still a higher than average ratio of office
space, which should be more in the range of 18 sf to 22 sf per capita
for a market of Bozeman’s size and may be an indication as to current
oversupply and vacancy issues.
Figure 5.1: Bozeman Office Lease Rate Trends
Average asking lease rates have remained relatively stable over the
past five to six years hovering at around $12.00 per sf. As illustrated
in Figure 5.1 the average asking lease rate for office space in 2012
was $12.25.
Vacancy for new suburban space in Bozeman, ranging from 9% to 18%
is above the industry norm for a healthy office environment, which
should be around 8%. Accordingly, any traditional office type
development at North Park should exercise caution in the amount
and timing of the development in order to ensure current new and
Class A space can be occupied.
3.8 million SF of
Office Space
Suburban Office Low High Avg Vacancy
New Construction (AAA) $13.00 $14.00 $13.50 9.0%
Class A Prime $10.00 $12.00 $11.00 15.0%
Class B Secondary $7.00 $10.00 $8.50 18.0% Source: Grubb & Ellis (Q4, 2011)
NAI Landmark Realty Metropolitan Area Market Overview, January 2012
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5.2 Office Demand Quantification
Using the current office supply and market performance metrics as
well as the forecasted growth in employment and population growth,
the estimated demand for new office space was calculated, using two
scenarios – “Office Demand Through Employment Growth” and
“Office Demand Through Population Growth”.
Projected office space demand is calculated by the growth in major
employment sectors that utilize standard office space such as
Business Services, Finance, Real Estate, Education and Public
Administrative Support, among other industries.
The Montana Department of Labor & Industry completed a Montana
Employment Projections Study that calculated the gain in workers per
industry sectors. Based on employment projections, the office-
related industries were calculated per the typical sf per worker,
revealing a total project demand of office space for all of Montana to
total 3.1 million sf over the period 2013 to 2020 (as illustrated in
Table 5.1).
This averages out to approximately 444,000 sf per year of office space
for the entire State.
Table 5.2 highlights the office employment sector industries and the
forecasted growth rates as projected for Region 2, in which Bozeman
serves as the largest urban center. Over the period 2010 to 2020,
office-related industries are forecast to grow at an average annual
rate of 1.15% compared to Industrial at 2.19% per annum.
Source: Montana Department of Labor & Industry (2010)
US Census (2010)
Montana Workforce Informer 2012
Table 5.1: Montana Office Space Demand by 2020
With employment sector figures obtained through the most recent
2010 Census Data from the US Bureau of Statistics, the projected
number of new annual jobs within the office sector for the City of
Bozeman were calculated by using an average annual growth rates as
documented in Table 5.2.
Table 5.3 illustrates total cumulative office demand of approximately
462,000 sf for the City of Bozeman over the period 2012 to 2030
based on employment growth forecasts in office-related industries.
As a share of the Statewide demand over the time period 2012 to
2020, the Bozeman Office Demand Through Employment Growth
figure equate to 200,500 sf or 6.4%.
Montana Project Office Demand By Office-Related Industry Sector
Total
Employment
Gain
2013-2020
Total Demand
by 2020
(200sf / emp)
Office & Administrative Support 4,053 810,600
Personal Care & Service 1,729 345,800
Education, Training & Library 973 194,600
Healthcare 4,291 858,200
Business & Financial Operations 1,442 288,400
Computer & Mathematical 728 145,600
Community & Social Services 707 141,400
Management 721 144,200
Architecture & Engineering 651 130,200
Legal 259 51,800
Projected Demand in Office Space by 2020:15,554 3,110,800
Office Market Analysis
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Region 2 (Including Bozeman)
Industry Employment Projections
growth
10 to 20
Forecast
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
INDUSTRIAL Administrative and support and waste
management and remediation services 3.10%680 701 723 745 768 792 816 842 868 895
INDUSTRIAL Manufacturing 2.10%1,021 1,042 1,064 1,087 1,109 1,133 1,156 1,181 1,205 1,231
INDUSTRIAL Transportation & Warehousing 1.60%937 952 967 983 998 1,014 1,031 1,047 1,064 1,081
INDUSTRIAL Wholesale trade 1.30%710 719 728 738 747 757 767 777 787 797
LEISURE Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.80%394 401 408 416 423 431 439 447 455 463
LEISURE Other services (except public
administration and government)1.40%711 721 731 742 752 763 773 784 795 806
LEISURE Retail trade 1.00%5,133 5,185 5,236 5,289 5,342 5,395 5,449 5,504 5,559 5,614
LEISURE Accommodation and food services 1.00%3,231 3,263 3,296 3,329 3,362 3,396 3,430 3,464 3,499 3,534
OFFICE Professional, scientific, and technical
services 2.00%2,011 2,052 2,093 2,135 2,177 2,221 2,265 2,311 2,357 2,404
OFFICE Finance & Insurance 1.40%1,249 1,267 1,285 1,303 1,321 1,339 1,358 1,377 1,396 1,416
OFFICE Health care and social assistance 1.40%3,187 3,231 3,277 3,322 3,369 3,416 3,464 3,512 3,562 3,611
OFFICE Real estate and rental and leasing 1.20%449 455 460 466 471 477 483 489 494 500
OFFICE Educational services 0.40%206 207 208 208 209 210 211 212 213 213
OFFICE Information -0.80%564 560 555 551 546 542 538 533 529 525
SUMMARY Industrial Employment Industries 2.19%2,638 2,695 2,754 2,814 2,876 2,939 3,004 3,070 3,137 3,206
SUMMARY Office Employment Industries 1.15%12,656 12,802 12,949 13,098 13,248 13,401 13,555 13,711 13,869 14,028
SUMMARY Retail & Leisure Industries 0.41%1,274 1,279 1,283 1,289 1,294 1,299 1,305 1,310 1,316 1,322
Table 5.2: Bozeman Office Employment Growth Forecasts
Office Market Analysis
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030
Projected Total Population 95,547 98,715 101,988 105,370 116,130 126,590 136,373
Projected Annual
Population Growth 3,066 3,168 3,273 3,382 2,237 2,165 2,015
Office Demand in Bozeman
(sf)*45,990 47,520 49,095 50,730 33,555 32,475 30,231
*Factoring 15 sq ft of office space per capita for the City of Bozeman
(current ratio is extremely high at over 100 sf/capita)
Projected Bozeman Office Demand By Population Growth in Gallatin County
2012-2030 Total Office Space Demand (sf)
658,386
2011 20,457
2012 20,807
2013 21,163
2014 21,524
2015 21,891
2016 22,265
2017 22,644
2018 23,029
2019 23,421
2020 23,819
2021 24,224
2022 24,635
2023 25,053
2024 25,478
2025 25,909
2026 26,348
2027 26,794
2028 27,248
2029 27,708
2030 28,177
Total 2012-2030 462,138
Projected Increase in Office Space Demand (sf)
from Previous Year - Bozeman
Source: Montana Department of Labor & Industry (2010)
US Census (2010)
Table 5.4: Bozeman Office Demand by Population Growth
Table 5.3: Bozeman Office Demand by
Employment Growth
Similar to the approach used in forecasting office demand through
employment growth, Table 5.4 illustrates the demand as forecast using
population growth applied against a more sensitized per capita office
space ratio.
The current office space ratio of 100 sf per capita for the City of
Bozeman and more applicable the 40 sf per capita for Gallatin County in
combination with the current market dynamics of high vacancy suggest
a lower ratio of office space per capita should be applied. Accordingly,
Table 4.10 uses an office space ratio of 15 sf per capita in forecasting
demand by population growth.
Accordingly, the total office demand over the period 2012 to 2030
could be in the range of 659,000 sf for the City of Bozeman.
As with the retail demand, a blended average of the two demand
forecasts is next calculated against which a potential market share of
total demand could be applied in determining the reasonable and
feasible amount of office space for North Park.
Office Market Analysis
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To isolate the appropriate and feasible share of office demand that
could be achieved at North Park, a market share sensitivity was
applied. In this regard, the base level against which the market share
was applied reflects the blended average annual demand as
determined through Employment Growth and Population Growth.
Using this base level of demand, sensitivities ranging from 20% to
35% over time were applied to determine the optimal amount of
office space for North Park, as detailed in Table 5.5. In applying these
sensitivities, the project’s site and size as well as the optimal format
in order to be unique and competitive in the market were considered
as important qualitative inputs.
For example, given the current vacancy in the market and other
competitive projects, in particular near the University and around
Bozeman Gateway, it is not conceivable that office development and
thus a higher market share of cumulative demand would be
warranted early in the development process.
Furthermore, Downtown Bozeman is the primary cluster for office
space, whereby suburban office space has been limited primarily to
the Innovation Campus at the Montana State University, and other
“pod” format clusters.
However, over time as the market stabilizes, a minimum critical mass
of office space could be introduced in the range of 50,000 sf by 2018,
growing to 160,000 sf by 2030.
It is expected that the type office users and space at North Park
would likely have a synergistic relationship with other land uses and
could possibly comprise smaller formats of buildings ranging in size
from one to two storeys. Additionally, as will be seen in the industrial
demand, office space could also be integrated within light industrial
``flex`` type buildings, whereby office uses provide the face or front of
the development, while the back areas serve functions for smaller
warehousing and wholesaling activities.
Approximately 160,000 SF of
Office Space could be feasible at
North Park by the year 2030 Table 5.5: Office Demand for North Park Site
Mandeville Properties Feasible Cumulative Office Space Variable Marketshare
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
Bozeman Demand
Blended Average (sf)33,399 34,341 35,310 36,311 26,650 27,147 27,647 28,158 28,687 29,192 29,204
Mandeville
Marketshare 20%20%20%25%25%25%25%25%30%35%35%
Mandeville Feasible
Office Space (sf)6,680 6,868 7,062 9,078 6,662 6,787 6,912 7,040 8,606 10,217 10,221
Cumulative (sf)6,680 13,548 20,610 29,688 36,350 43,137 50,049 57,088 65,694 109,484 159,013
Office Market Analysis
North Park
North Park Feasible
North Park Properties Feasible Cumulative Office Space Variable Marketshare
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Figure 5.2: Character Imagery of Office/Tech Business Park Formats
Office Market Analysis
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SECTION 6.0
INDUSTRIAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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Industrial Market Analysis
6.1 Industrial Market Overview
The City of Bozeman’s industrial sector comprises a mix of heavy
industrial, light industrial, light industrial/flex space (i.e. combined
with office space) and live/work warehouse formats. In 2011, the
total Industrial inventory was estimated at 2 million sf, averaging to
53 sf per capita. This per capita ratio is comparable to other similar
sized regional serving markets.
According to Grubb & Ellis, the overall industrial vacancy rate was
22% as of the third quarter of 2011. A further examination as
summarized in Figure 6.1 illustrates a vacancy that ranges from 7% in
the specialized High Tech R&D Sector to 15% in Manufacturing and
18% in Bulk Warehousing. Typically, a healthy industrial market
should have vacancy below 5%.
Either way, with the exception of High Tech R&D, the industrial
market in Bozeman, which has notable competition elsewhere
within region currently represents a challenging market.
As illustrated in Figure 6.1, the averages asking lease rate for
industrial space has hovered around $5 - $6 per sf over the last 6
years. More specifically, Bulk Warehouse industrial space tends to
lease for an average of $4 per sf, Manufacturing $4.75 per sf and High
Tech R&D at $7.75 per sf. Generally, the higher vacancy rates have
caused the average asking lease rates to be lower in this real estate
sector.
Therefore, the future demand forecasts for North Park should be
cognizant of this in looking outside of the traditional market for
potential economic development-driven users or target sectors.
Source: Grubb & Ellis (Q3, 2011)
City of Bozeman Economic Development Plan (2009)
NAI Landmark Realty Metropolitan Area Market Overview, January 2012
Figure 6.1: Bozeman Industrial Lease Rate Trends
Industrial Low High Avg Vacancy
Bulk Warehouse $3.75 $4.75 $4.25 18.0%
Manufacturing $4.25 $5.00 $4.75 15.0%
High Tech R&D $6.50 $9.00 $7.75 7.0%
2.0 million SF of
Industrial Space
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One of the top businesses in the Bozeman market that demands
industrial space is the local Manufacturing Industry. As of 2009, there
were approximately 238 firms in Bozeman that manufactured a range
of products including wood furniture, athletic gear, apparel,
computer/electronic products and fabricated metal products.
Some of the major manufacturing companies include Simms Fishing
Products, West Paw Design, Gibson’s Guitar (Montana Division) and
Mystery Ranch. Mystery Ranch manufactures backpacks for outdoor
recreational activities such as skiing, snowboarding, military, hunting
and mountain climbing, earning 90% of their revenues from outside
of the State of Montana.
One of the most significant attributes of the North Park site is its
proximity to existing industrial land uses, but also its access to
potential rail and highway goods movement. These factors will be
significant in helping to mitigate potential weaknesses in the current
market performance as they may make the site attractive not just for
new-to-market users, but also potential existing users in Bozeman,
Belgrade or elsewhere for whom their current location or size is
inadequate.
One of the largest heavy industrial competitive industrial clusters is
located northwest of North Park in the City of Belgrade. The Bruce
Industrial Park, (estimated at 350 acres) is located 6.9 miles west of
North Park (refer to Figure 6.2). Interestingly, the well-established
Bruce Industrial Park has a very similar configuration and I-90
frontage as the North Park site, with a wrap-around I-90 frontage on
the west and east sides of the Park and major rail spur running along
the north perimeter of the site.
Belgrade &
Bruce Industrial Park represent a
competitive Industrial Land Base
Tenants of Bruce Industrial Park include:
•Dynojet Research Inc.
•Aqua Tech
•Habitat Restore
•Warren Transport
•Big Sky Installations
•All Pro Composites
In addition to the existing light industrial, flex and warehouse
inventory, Bruce Industrial Park is largest industrial land base in close
proximity (2.7 miles) to the Bozeman Yellowstone Int’l Airport.
Generally, Bruce Industrial Park is old and poorly maintained.
Compared to industrial developments within the City of Bozeman,
Bruce Industrial Park and surrounding land uses have limited to no
design guidelines and have been developed in a haphazard ad hoc
fashion. Therein lies an opportunity for North Park to create a higher
quality mix of land uses and not replicating the Bruce Industrial Park.
Industrial Market Analysis
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6.9 miles (6 minute drive)
Figure 6.2: Competitive Industrial Inventory - Bruce Industrial Park
Industrial Market Analysis
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Despite the physical similarities between North Park and Bruce
Industrial Park, the North Park site has an excellent opportunity to
capitalize on the proximity to the Bozeman Yellowstone International
Airport and related activities. Bruce Industrial Park has available,
serviced land predominantly for heavy industrial-related land uses
that require outdoor storage as well as a few sites prime for
redevelopment. However, North Park has a unique opportunity to
plan a higher quality and economic-specific cluster of activities that
can feed into the greater Bozeman Airport Village, founded on the
strong entrepreneur culture and manufacturing industries already
existing in Bozeman.
6.2 Foreign Trade Zones
Harnessing the economic activity already occurring at the airport and
the intermodal activities between rail and road, there is a unique
opportunity to consider a Freeport or Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) at
North Park. They are used for the purpose of establishing a duty-free
(or reduced duty payment) fenced-in space for warehousing, storage,
distribution facilities, assembly, manufacturing, testing, exhibition or
other value-added services.
This land use tool would provide a foundation to grow the economic
pillars of Bozeman, create a new and well-planned employment node
and generate economic benefits for the region.
FTZ’s must be located within or adjacent to a US Customs and Border
Protection (CBP) port of entry, or within 60 miles of the outer limits of
a CBP, or within 90 minutes driving time from the outer limits of a
CBP.
The alternative types of trade zones (such as an Enterprise Zone) do
not have these distance/time restrictions (although other restrictions
may apply). The North Park site falls well within the US Customs
regulations for port of entry proximity.
Currently, there are close to 300 general-purpose FTZs in the United
States. Not all FTZs need to encompass vast tracts of lands. In fact,
the US allows for FTZ subzones whereby one individual company on
one parcel of land creates an FTZ for the sole purpose of that
individual company.
Sometimes, companies that are looking for a FTZ will not find space
or a suitable location to meet their needs so they either go through a
state-process to establish a trade zone (such as the Enterprise Zone
program by the State of Colorado) or a federal-process to establish a
FTZ subzone.
Foreign Trade Zones are catalysts to
regional economic development
Industrial Market Analysis
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6.3 Industrial Demand Quantification
Using the current industrial supply and market performance metrics
as well as the forecasted growth in employment and population
growth, the estimated demand for new office space was calculated,
using two scenarios – “Industrial Demand Through Employment
Growth” and “Industrial Demand Through Population Growth”.
Projected industrial space demand is calculated by the growth in
major employment sectors that utilize industrial space such as
Manufacturing, Warehousing, Wholesale, among other industries.
Table 6.2 highlights the industrial employment sector industries and
the forecasted growth rates as projected for Region 2, in which
Bozeman serves as the largest urban center. Over the period 2010 to
2020, office-related industries are forecast to grow at an average
annual rate of 2.19% per annum, which is the best performing of the
overall employment sectors (Office, Industrial, Leisure).
Moreover, within the Industrial Employment Sector, the category of
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and
Remediation Services are forecast to grow at 3.10% per annum over
the period 2010 to 2020.
With employment sector figures obtained through the most recent
2010 Census Data from the US Bureau of Statistics, the projected
number of new annual jobs within the industrial sector for the City of
Bozeman were calculated by using an average annual growth rates as
documented in Table 6.2.
Bozeman’s industrial market is very regional in scope and could in
fact be even larger if economic development driven opportunities
present themselves. As such, the employment base is sourced to
Gallatin County for the majority of its workforce in which case the
forecasting models use employment growth and population growth
for Gallatin County as critical inputs.
Table 6.1 illustrates total cumulative industrial demand of
approximately 1.58 million sf for the City of Bozeman over the period
2012 to 2030 based on employment growth forecasts in industrial-
related industries.
2011 65,892
2012 67,375
2013 68,895
2014 70,452
2015 72,048
2016 73,683
2017 75,358
2018 77,075
2019 78,835
2020 80,639
2021 82,487
2022 84,382
2023 86,324
2024 88,315
2025 90,356
2026 92,447
2027 94,592
2028 96,791
2029 99,045
2030 101,356
Total 2012-2030 1,580,454
Projected Increase in Industrial Space Demand
(sf) from Previous Year - Bozeman
Table 6.1: Bozeman Industrial Demand by
Employment Growth
Source: Montana Department of Labor & Industry (2010)
US Census (2010)
Industrial Market Analysis
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Region 2 (Including Bozeman)
Industry Employment Projections
growth
10 to 20
Forecast
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
INDUSTRIAL Administrative and support and waste
management and remediation services 3.10%680 701 723 745 768 792 816 842 868 895
INDUSTRIAL Manufacturing 2.10%1,021 1,042 1,064 1,087 1,109 1,133 1,156 1,181 1,205 1,231
INDUSTRIAL Transportation & Warehousing 1.60%937 952 967 983 998 1,014 1,031 1,047 1,064 1,081
INDUSTRIAL Wholesale trade 1.30%710 719 728 738 747 757 767 777 787 797
LEISURE Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.80%394 401 408 416 423 431 439 447 455 463
LEISURE Other services (except public
administration and government)1.40%711 721 731 742 752 763 773 784 795 806
LEISURE Retail trade 1.00%5,133 5,185 5,236 5,289 5,342 5,395 5,449 5,504 5,559 5,614
LEISURE Accommodation and food services 1.00%3,231 3,263 3,296 3,329 3,362 3,396 3,430 3,464 3,499 3,534
OFFICE Professional, scientific, and technical
services 2.00%2,011 2,052 2,093 2,135 2,177 2,221 2,265 2,311 2,357 2,404
OFFICE Finance & Insurance 1.40%1,249 1,267 1,285 1,303 1,321 1,339 1,358 1,377 1,396 1,416
OFFICE Health care and social assistance 1.40%3,187 3,231 3,277 3,322 3,369 3,416 3,464 3,512 3,562 3,611
OFFICE Real estate and rental and leasing 1.20%449 455 460 466 471 477 483 489 494 500
OFFICE Educational services 0.40%206 207 208 208 209 210 211 212 213 213
OFFICE Information -0.80%564 560 555 551 546 542 538 533 529 525
SUMMARY Industrial Employment Industries 2.19%2,638 2,695 2,754 2,814 2,876 2,939 3,004 3,070 3,137 3,206
SUMMARY Office Employment Industries 1.15%12,656 12,802 12,949 13,098 13,248 13,401 13,555 13,711 13,869 14,028
SUMMARY Retail & Leisure Industries 0.41%1,274 1,279 1,283 1,289 1,294 1,299 1,305 1,310 1,316 1,322
Table 6.2: Bozeman Industrial Employment Growth Forecasts
Industrial Market Analysis
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030
Projected Total Population 95,547 98,715 101,988 105,370 116,130 126,590 136,373
Projected Annual
Population Growth 3,066 3,168 3,273 3,382 2,237 2,165 2,015
Industrial Demand in
Bozeman (sf)*153,300 158,400 163,650 169,100 111,850 108,250 100,769
*Factoring 50 sq ft of office space per capita for the City of Bozeman
(current ratio is eestimated at 53 sf/capita)
2012-2030 Total Industrial Space Demand (sf)
2,194,619
Projected Bozeman Industrial Demand By Population Growth in Gallatin County
Source: Montana Department of Labor & Industry (2010)
US Census (2010)
Table 6.3: Bozeman Industrial Demand by Population Growth
Similar to the approach used in forecasting office demand through
employment growth, Table 6.3 illustrates the demand as forecast
through using population growth applied against a more sensitized per
capita industrial space ratio.
The current industrial space ratio of 53 sf per capita for the City of
Bozeman in combination with the current market dynamics of high
vacancy, but critical advantages of rail and highway accessibility and
proximity suggest a slightly lower ratio of industrial space per capita
should be applied.
Accordingly, Table 6.3 uses an industrial space ratio of 50 sf per capita
in forecasting demand by population growth resulting in total industrial
demand over the period 2012 to 2030 in the range of 2.2 million sf for
the City of Bozeman.
As with the retail demand, a blended average of the two demand
forecasts is next calculated against which potential market share of
total demand could be applied in determining the reasonable and
feasible amount of office space for North Park.
Industrial Market Analysis
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To isolate the appropriate and feasible share of industrial demand
that could be achieved at North Park, a market share sensitivity was
applied. In this regard, the base level against which the market share
was applied reflects the blended average annual demand as
determined through Employment Growth and Population Growth.
Using this base level of demand, sensitivities ranging from 25% to
40% over time were applied to determine the optimal amount of
office space for North Park, as detailed in Table 6.4. In applying these
sensitivities, the project’s site and size as well as the optimal format
in order to be unique and competitive in the market were considered
as important qualitative inputs, as well as the potential to integrate
rail spurs into the development thereby creating a distinct point of
difference for the development.
Although the figures in Table 6.4 reflect new demand, it is entirely
possible that the site attributes at North Park could lure existing
tenants from elsewhere in Bozeman or Belgrade or beyond. Any
potential relocation of tenants could provide the indirect effect of
inducing the market-driven demand sooner than later at North Park.
That being said however, Industrial demand for new space is forecast
to reach enough critical mass (i.e. greater than 100,000 sf) within 5
years or by 2016.
Over time as the market stabilizes, industrial demand at North Park
could grow from 20,000 sf in 2012 to 617,000 sf by 2030.
It is expected that the type industrial users and space at North Park
will comprise a mix of larger single user tenants as well as multi-
tenant light industrial formats. It is recommended that the larger
industrial users limit the amount of outdoor storage so that the
overall image of the entire North Park site can be perceived and
regarded as a higher quality amenity-driven environment with a
complementary supporting mix of land uses, such as Office, Retail
and Hotel. ”Flex” formats that include warehouse space in the rear,
but also may include street grade office or retail-compatible space
(e.g. Café, Gymnastics, Daycare, Catering etc.) along the front edges
of the building are also envisioned to be critical in the land use mix.
Approximately 620,000 SF of
Industrial Space could be feasible
at North Park by the year 2030
Table 6.4: Industrial Demand for North Park Site
Mandeville Properties Feasible Cumulative Industrial Space Variable Marketshare
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
Bozeman Demand Blended
Average (sf)81,461 83,805 86,220 88,709 90,561 92,454 94,388 96,364 98,384 108,473 101,356
Mandeville Marketshare 25%25%25%30%30%30%30%30%35%40%40%
Mandeville Feasible Industrial
Space (sf)20,365 20,951 21,555 26,613 27,168 27,736 28,316 28,909 34,435 43,389 40,542
Cumulative (sf)20,365 41,316 62,871 89,484 116,652 144,388 172,705 201,614 236,048 424,090 617,783
Industrial Market Analysis
North Park Marketshare
North Park Feasible Industrial
North Park Properties Feasible Cumulative Industrial Space Variable Marketshare
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Figure 6.3 Character Imagery of Industrial Business Park Formats
Industrial Market Analysis
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SECTION 7.0
HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS
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Hotel Market Analysis
7.1 Hotel Market Overview
To lay a foundation for the future potential demand quantification of
a hotel or hotels at North Park, an overview was conducted of the
Bozeman Hotel Sector.
As of April, 2012, the City of Bozeman has 2,008 Hotel Rooms in 26
properties, representing 31% of the total Bozeman/Yellowstone
Market’s hotel inventory (refer to Table 7.1). Figure 7.2 illustrates an
age breakdown of the hotel inventory in which aapproximately 55%
of Bozeman’s hotels were built after 1990, while 33% are older than
30 years.
Table 7.1 provides a list of hotel property names/brands and their
associated number of rooms and amount of meeting space, if
present.
This table is further organized into hotel classes/price points as
defined by Smith Travel Research as: upscale, upper midscale,
midscale, economy and independent. An analysis of the mix as
shown in Figure 7.1reveals that 30% of Bozeman’s hotel inventory is
represented by “Independent” hotels, such as the successful C’Mon
Inn, while a further 27% is represented by “Upper Midscale” brands
such as Comfort Inn, Fairfield Inn, Hampton Inn, Holiday Inn and Best
Western.
Since 2006, the historic annual occupancy in the
Bozeman/Yellowstone region has averaged 56.4%. In 2011, the
Bozeman region experienced an average annual occupancy of 55.4%,
while the year-to-date (2012) is up almost 3% over the same period
2011.
Source: Smith Travel Research (2012)
McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge (2012)
Hotel Property Name/Brand Number of
Rooms
Meeting
Space
Date
Opened
UPSCALE
Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 122 3,780 Nov-05
Homewood Suites Bozeman 102 1,800 Mar-10
Residence Inn Bozeman 115 600 Oct-07
UPPER MIDSCALE
Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 120 7,500 May-74
Comfort Inn Bozeman 121 4,330 May-92
Fairfield Inn Bozeman 57 Apr-92
Hampton Inn Bozeman 70 396 Apr-98
Holiday Inn Bozeman 177 6,400 Mar-69
MIDSCALE
La Quinta Inns & Suites Bozeman 56 Jun-10
Ramada Limited Bozeman 50 120 Jun-94
Wingate By Wyndham Bozeman 86 1,550 Apr-99
ECONOMY
Days Inn & Suites Bozeman 114 300 Jun-78
Microtel Inn & Suites Bozeman 61 720 Aug-01
Rodeway Inn Bozeman 56 Jun-94
Super 8 Bozeman 107 Mar-80
INDEPENDENT
Grand Hotel City Center 64 2,318 Jun-59
Rainbow Motel 42 Jun-65
Budget Inn 60 Jun-68
Lewis & Clark Motel 50 Jun-77
Royal 7 Budget Inn 47 Jun-70
The Bozeman Inn 49 Jun-72
Western Heritage Inn 36 950 Jun-84
TLC Inn 42 Jun-86
Blue Sky Motel 27 Jun-90
Bozeman Hotel 52 600 Jun-04
Cmon Inn 125 1,000 Oct-06
CURRENT TOTAL 2,008 32,364
Comfort Inn 84 Mar-13
FUTURE 84 0
Table 7.1: Current & Future Bozeman Hotel Inventory
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Approximately 2,008 Hotel Rooms
and 32,300 sf of
Meeting Room Space in Bozeman
Source: Smith Travel Research (2012)
McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge (2012)
Figure 7.1: Bozeman Hotel Classes
Figure 7.2: Bozeman Total Hotels by Age
There are as many as 2 new hotels proposed in Bozeman’s downtown
core as well as an 84-room Comfort Suites Inn (location as yet
undecided).
Overall, Bozeman’s hotel market is stable with limited short term
demand for additional rooms other than for potential redeveloping or
relocating of existing inventory.
The industry norm for annualized hotel occupancy should fall within
the range of 60% to 65%, therefore the current market would have to
improve the occupancy rates to justify another hotel addition in the
short term.
This does not preclude an opportunity for North Park to build upon
the existing cluster of hotels located and accessed from Mandeville
Drive, but that the demand would likely need to catch up in order to
rationalize a hotel in that area.
Hotel Market Analysis
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7.2 Hotel Demand Quantification
Over recent years, supply and demand levels have moved in
opposite directions, whereby occupancy rates have declined and
demand has slowed. Because of the extended slowdown of the
National economy, the short term outlook is for hotel demand
recovery, but not at a feverish pace as evidenced in 2007.
Recognizing a more modest outlook for the hotel sector over the
next 10 to 15 years, the current hotel supply vs demand in
Bozeman, as shown in Table 7.2 needs to improve so that
occupancy rates do not decline any further. Applying conservative
and stabilized growth in demand for hotels/motels at a blended rate
of 0.8% per annum (i.e. 0.9% for Leisure Segment growth and 0.4%
for Commercial Segment growth) indicates that assuming no new
additions to the Bozeman hotel inventory, occupancy could
gradually recover and reach an industry acceptable benchmark of
60% by 2022 and beyond.
Table 7.2 illustrates the cumulative annual demand for hotel room
growth specifically for the City of Bozeman. It is important to
recognize that given the fact that Downtown is actively pursuing a
new hotel, any other hotel entrant into the Bozeman Market is likely
to come after this hotel has been absorbed into the market.
In time, as North Park develops and on-site demand generators are
more prevalent in the form of office and industrial properties as
well as a potential overpass, a hotel will become potentially more
attractive. In the short term however, a hotel is not feasible for
North Park.
Over the past few years, supply and demand for hotels/motels have
averaged slow, albeit stable growth throughout Montana as a result
of the global and national economic downturn.
Assuming hotel occupancy rates grow as per estimated forecasts over
the period of 2012 to 2020 (and beyond), the results of the hotel
demand analysis reveal that another mid-priced hotel between 85
and 100 rooms, could be warranted by 2020 in the City of Bozeman.
As mentioned however, this demand is likely not going to be
warranted for North Park, but rather elsewhere in the City, most likely
in the Downtown.
Although average Bozeman hotel occupancy and historic supply and
demand growth are critical inputs in determining future demand for a
hotel at North Park, the current age of the existing hotel
infrastructure should also be weighed. In this regard, many of the
current properties are older and in need of renovation and if
renovations do not occur, the warranted demand could be sped up by
a few years.
Ideally, occupancy rates would need to improve from their current
levels of 55% or lower to at least 60% for a new hotel operator to
realize feasibility in a market where supply is currently fulfilled,
particularly if operator is in the mid-market profile segment.
The stronger Family and Leisure Traveler segment to the region
suggests a market positioning for a Mid-Priced Hotel with or without
F&B or extended stay format. Refer to Figures 7.3 & 7.4 for
representative hotel brands and formats that could fit the envisioned
positioning profile.
Another potential catalyst for a hotelier at North Park could be the
role of Sports Tourism in relation to and envisioned outdoor and
indoor leisure and recreational amenity that could be developed on
the site or in proximity.
Hotel Market Analysis
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030
2,008 2,008 2,092 2,092 2,092 2,092 2,092 2,092
410,435 414,232 418,065 421,934 425,841 445,946 467,035 489,158
Leisure 85%348,870 352,359 355,882 359,441 363,035 381,554 401,017 421,473
Commercial 15%61,565 61,873 62,182 62,493 62,806 64,392 66,018 67,685
Total 100%410,435 414,232 418,065 421,934 425,841 445,946 467,035 489,158
732,920 734,928 763,580 763,580 763,580 765,672 765,672 765,672
0 10 11 11 11 11 12 12
0 10 21 32 42 97 155 216
Occupancy Growth
Indicating Hotel
Opportunity Years
56.0%56.4%54.8%55.3%55.8%58.2%61.0%63.9%
Source: MXD Development Strategists 2012, Smith Travel Research Market Pipeline Report and Geographic Tract Analysis 2006 - YTD April 2012
HOTEL ROOM DEMAND
Note: 2012, 2016 & 2020 represent Leap Years and therefore have 366 days against which supply is calculated
Forecasted Occupancy as estimated by MXD Development Strategists reflecting historic average and industry standard given the Estevan Market profile.
Projected Yellowstone/Bozeman
Room Nights Supply
Projected Yellowstone/Bozeman
Room Demand
Yellowstone/Bozmeman
Hotel Room Inventory
Cumulative Annual
New Yellowstone/Bozeman
Room Demand
Incremental Annual
New Yellowstone/Bozeman
Room Demand
Table 7.2: Hotel Demand for Bozeman
Hotel Market Analysis
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Having identified the overall citywide demand for a potential hotel,
the next step is to apply a market share sensitivity against the
cumulative demand to in fact determine when a potential hotel could
be developed at North Park.
It would be difficult for a hotel at North Park to garner more than 50%
of the market share, particularly if another hotel or two is being
targeted for Downtown.
Therefore, as demonstrated in Table 7.3 using market shares ranging
from 40% in the early years to 45% and 50% in later years, North Park
could support a hotel ranging from 75 to 115 rooms during the period
2025 to 2030.
However, because there are still many older sub-standard hotels in
the market, the demand could be potentially quicker than stated, but
this would be largely dependent upon whether the hotel closed or
undergoes a renovation/redevelopment.
Table 7.3: Hotel Demand for North Park Site
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
Bozeman Incremental Annual
Demand (Rooms)10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12
MANDEVILLE PARCEL
Marketshare 40%40%40%40%45%45%45%45%50%55%60%
Incremental MANDEVILLE
Parcel Feasible Hotel Rooms 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7
Cumulative (Hotel Rooms)4 8 13 17 22 27 32 37 42 72 115
Mandeville Properties Feasible Cumulative Hotel Market Share of Visitor Demand (Yellowstone - Bozeman Market Tract)
Approximately 72 to 115 Hotel Rooms
or 1 Hotel could be feasible
at North Park between the years
2025 to 2030
Hotel Market Analysis
NORTH PARK PARCEL
North Park Properties Feasible Cumulative Hotel Marketshare of Visitor Demand (Yellowstone - Bozeman Market Tract)
NORTH PARK
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Luxury Boutique
Lifestyle Concept
½
½
Figure 7.3: Hotel Family Trees Part A
Hotel Market Analysis
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½
½
Figure 7.4: Hotel Family Trees Part B
Hotel Market Analysis
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SECTION 8.0
RECREATION SECTOR OVERVIEW
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Recreational Sector Overview
8.1 Recreation Sector Summary
Based on the Active Community Culture of Bozeman and confirmed
by the City of Bozeman Economic Development Plan, there will be
strong demand for active recreational facilities over the next two
decades.
The City of Bozeman prepared a recreational needs assessment based
on population projections, revealing the number of facilities required
per recreational categories. As illustrated in Figure 8.1 the most
needed facilities are Tennis, Baseball Fields and Soccer Fields at 44
courts, 25 diamonds and 35 pitches respectively.
For these sports an indoor component or facility could provide a
significant value added amenity not just locally but regionally and
statewide for attracting tournaments and for higher profile athlete
training.
Some recreational facilities require larger tracts of land than others,
and some facilities are best situated in an urban environment vs
suburban environment, and some are best located within residential
areas at a neighborhood scale, and others are best located in a
regional destination location.
For example, tennis courts can be stand-alone parks that fit in with a
residential suburb that do not require a large number of parking
stalls, whereas soccer fields require more land for both the play area
and parking lot.
North Park could be a potential location for a Regional Tournament
and Recreational Complex Park because of the land area size,
location and visibility/exposure.
Source: Bozeman Economic Development Plan (2009)
Figure 8.1: Bozeman Community Recreational Needs by 2025
Regional Recreation Parks often consist of both indoor and outdoor
recreational facilities. Considering that Bozeman does have a colder
and precipitous winter climate, providing an Indoor Soccer Facility
(refer to following case study examples) is a great potential amenity
for the community, where leagues can play and practice during all
seasons.
In addition, potential Regional Recreation Parks generate demand for
complimentary commercial and retail development both onsite and
offsite. As such, recreational amenities within North Park could
benefit businesses located at the existing commercial, retail and hotel
clusters adjacent to the site as well as create opportunities for new,
small businesses onsite to cater to the onsite foot traffic.
Finally, Regional Recreation Parks are a welcomed City anchor that
can form a clean, well-designed City corridor entrance, forming an
impressive first sense of community.
Regional Recreation Parks
require large tracts of land
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INDOOR MULTI-SPORT RECREATION
East Hants Sportsplex, Halifax, Canada
Location: Lantz, Nova Scotia Canada
Population of East Hants: 23,387 (2006) Regionally,
population is around 400,000.
Location Context: Close proximity to Halifax Regional
Municipality and the Stanfield International Airport, in one of
Atlantic Canada’s fastest growing communities.
Site: Approximately 4.5 acres
Indoor Soccer Expansion is a $15.9-million facility
Opened: 1993
Features:
A full Size Indoor Multi-Purpose Field House.
Dividable artificial field surface for a variety of sports
including: soccer, football, lawn bowling, ultimate frisbee,
rugby, field hockey, lacrosse etc.
Seating capacities: 230 & 900
2 Regulation Size Arenas
5 Hotels in the area
Recently expanded Sportsplex includes second ice surface,
field house that can accommodate three small soccer fields,
400m walking/running track, community meeting room
with seating for 100; board room capable of seating 25; full
food service; lounge area with couches, chairs, etc.; room
for coaches with video equipment and other features to
assist with game preparations; and a pro shop.
The province, through the departments of Health and
Wellness, and Service Nova Scotia and Municipal Relations
committed $5.3-million and $1-million, respectively. The
Government of Canada provided $2-million from the Major
Infrastructure Component of the Building Canada Fund, and
$1-million from the Innovative Communities Fund led by
ACOA. The Municipality of East Hants and the East Hants
Arena Association shared the remaining project costs.
Recreational Sector Overview
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INDOOR MULTI-SPORT RECREATION
Northern Sports Center, Prince George, Canada
Location Context: Adjacent to the University of Northern BC
Population of Prince George: 71,030 (2006)
Opened: 1993
Size: 145,100 sf
JV Partnership: City and the University of Northern BC
Features:
Indoor Field Houses (90 x 190 feet)
Track and Straightaway
280m track
80m straightaway
Gymnasium
22,000 sf
3 basketball courts
Seating capacity: 2,000
Training
Weight and cardio rooms
Studio for aerobics, dance, yoga
Ventilated Wax room/rifle storage
Sport Medicine and physiotherapy
Connection to a major trail network
Other facilities
Two squash courts
Locker rooms & storage facilities
Health bar
Multipurpose room (meeting space)
Recreational Sector Overview
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INDOOR MULTI-SPORT RECREATION
Pacific Institute for Sports Excellence, Victoria, BC, Canada
Location Context: Suburban Victoria, adjacent to Camosun
College
Population of Greater Victoria: 330,088 (2006)
Concept description: Bringing sports education, community
recreation/programs and athlete development under one roof.
Opened: 2008
Building Footprint: 40,000 sf
Size: 80,000+ sf
Development Partners: Camosun College, Canadian Sports
Center Pacific, and Pacific Sport Victoria
Features:
Alex Campbell Field (Outdoor)
Fully lit, Artificial turf field
Gymnasium
14,800 sf
Two full size basketball courts, retractable
dividers & collapsing bleachers.
Movement Studio: 2,800 sf
Fitness Center: 3,000 sf
Available to the entire community.
High Performance Area: 2,800 sf
Classrooms for theory and applied purposes.
Additional Infrastructure details: certified LEED Gold through
the Canada Green Building Council.
Recreational Sector Overview
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Figure 8.2: Character Imagery of Regional Recreation Parks & Complexes
Recreational Sector Overview
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9.0 LAND USE
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
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Land Use Development Strategy
9.1 Land Use Development Strategy Overview
This section builds upon the land use demand forecasts with the
recommended project market positioning, taking into account the
competitive commercial retail, office, industrial and hotel
infrastructure existing and proposed within the City of Bozeman.
The objective is to establish a development project at the city’s edge
that is appealing to the surrounding residential communities and
employment nodes as well as capture the commuter vehicle traffic
and consumer interest from the transient population.
The land use and development strategy will focus on the optimal
program in order to achieve the highest and best use of the North
Park site, while attempting to ensure viable residual land values at
such time that demand in the market has stabilized in terms of
vacancies and achievable lease rates. Accordingly the development
program allocation reflects a back-and-forth process of working
with a financial analysis and the demand allocation to identify a
land use mix that over the long term can be supportable by market
demand as well as financially viable over time.
Working with CTA Landworks who have prepared a Concept Layout
Plan, the land use market demand forecasts have been fine tuned to
fit within the confines and identified parcels as laid out in the Concept
Plan.
The Development Strategy for North Park attempts to fill in the
current void that occupies the center of the City and which has land
owned by both the City of Bozeman and the DNRC.
In creating a vision for the site over the next 20 years, both the City
and DNRC could harness and leverage the site’s attributes and
mitigate its weaknesses in generating revenue as well as social value
through the creation of an employment center and potential
recreational connectivity point.
“Connecting & Expanding” Bozeman
The North Park Opportunity
9.2 North Park Positioning Strategy
Recognizing the land use demand summary and the identified points-
of-difference necessary to make North Park a success, Table 9.1
summarizes each land use’s Target Market, Price Point and overall
Positioning. The North Park project’s over-arching positioning strategy
should be to:
Provide a regional employment center and job creation hub
comprising a mix of land uses. Allow for the introduction of shops
and services that will firstly cater to the emerging workforce, then
secondarily to the local and wider trade area residents. Utilize the
extensive highway frontage, mountain backdrops and existing parks
and cycling networks to promote full connectivity to, from and
within North Park, so that all roads truly do lead to North Park.
The design standards should reflect an emphasis on 360 degree
architecture so that building siting and design is unique and
compatible with the surrounding community and avoids replicating
another Bruce Industrial Park.
The Bozeman market itself is relatively small, despite its regional
draw, therefore a careful phasing strategy is critical to ensure success,
achieve maximum value, but most importantly to not negatively or
adversely impact the existing fabric of Bozeman and further
perpetuate the vacancy and lease rate conditions that exist today.
There are multiple objectives in phasing that must be accounted for
including: creating an amenity to sell housing, creating critical mass,
avoiding market saturation, providing flexibility, and retaining strategic
parcels for future and other considerations.
In order to lay a foundation for the most optimal phasing strategy, the
Concept Plan as prepared by CTA Landworks illustrates the conceptual
allocation of the land uses into respective Parcels against which land
use allocation, development costs and subsequent residual land
valuation can be determined.
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Land Use Target Market, Price Point & Positioning
Industrial Target Market
Price Point
Positioning
Incubator for Statewide and Regional Economic Development Drivers, Manufacturing and potential
logistics
Combination of large users and multi-tenant warehouse/office “flex” space
Business Park environment
Retail Target Market
Price Point
Positioning
Tenant Mix catering to firstly the North Park Lands Employment Center then upon potential
introduction of overpass to wider Bozeman City and Gallatin County
Value Price Point
Local and Community-Scale Shops & Services with Food & Beverage and potential future symbiotic
entertainment and recreation uses
Office Target Market
Price Point
Positioning
Medical/Health/Wellness Services, Professional Services,
Smaller user segments ranging from 500 sf to 3,000 sf
Multi-Tenant Office Space in Freestanding 1, 2 or 3-Story Office Building formats or as integrated
into Multi-Tenant Flex Light Industrial Buildings to provide diversity in offering
Hotel Target Market
Price Point
Positioning
Regional Event & Sports Tourism Patrons and Business Travelers
Potential University related
Value to Mid Scale Price Point with or without Food & Beverage or Extended Stay, Family Friendly
2 to 3 Star Branded Hotel
Table 9.1 Target Market, Price Point & Positioning Summary
Land Use Development Strategy
9.3 North Park Demand & Phasing Summary
A summary of the total demand over the period 2012 to 2030 is
provided in Table 9.2 and reflects the analysis of Retail, Office,
Industrial and Hotel land uses. It is important to state that demand
for the full land uses, particularly industrial extends beyond the
market-driven threshold of 2030 and is contingent on economic-
development driven initiatives reaching outside of the regional
context (e.g. Statewide). The key principle behind the phasing
strategy is to create catalytic development while ensuring that the
impact on existing businesses is kept to a minimum while still
responding to potential new demand
Phase 1
The project is based on a phased development premised around the
introduction of as much as 465,000 sf of industrial in the latter stages
of Phase 1 (on approximately 45 acres), likely in the first 5-year
window.
The formats would be expected to comprise larger single tenant
users (e.g. Manufacturing and Logistics) for whom rail spur access
(pending the phasing and timing of rail spur development) would be
deemed a significant asset and may thus allow for a premium on
achievable lease rates, above and beyond today’s current low lease
rates.
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The phasing can take advantage of servicing and access from the
north end of the site at a new Red Wing Drive which will serve as the
main internal vehicle artery for the development.
Although the current vacancy in the industrial market is high, the
locational attributes and potential to attract users with a Statewide or
even Intermountain West catchment utilizing the highway and rail
signify a strong opportunity and foundation for job creation and
attraction of potential new industries.
Phase 2
The introduction of almost 100,000 sf of office space comprising a
potential 6 acre Business Park is programmed for Phase 2 in the next
5 year window from 2012. The location of the office buildings are
envisioned to back onto the green belt and thus provide an amenity
for office users, while providing a compatible buffering land use to
this more sensitive area. Some of this office space may be in a
freestanding format while the majority, may comprise office space
in multi-tenant light industrial “flex” formats.
A further 205,000 sf of light industrial comprising more multi-tenant
formats and “flex” users on approximately 15 acres is planned in
Phase 2 to provide a more balanced industrial composition as well as
a more seamless transition to softer commercial land uses
approaching Mandeville Drive.
Phase 3
Once the industrial (large single user and multi-tenant) and most of
the office land uses have been allocated, sold or potentially
developed, the next Phase of the development proposes to complete
the arterial connection to Mandeville Drive by developing the
remainder of the office component (34,000 sf on 2.5 acres) at the
northeast corner of Mandeville Drive and the new inner arterial.
In the event that the Phase 2 Office development comprises a more
light industrial “flex” format, then this smaller office component
could be a transitional area in which further light industrial flex, or
additional self storage (adjacent to existing self storage) or
freestanding office could be developed.
By the time Phase 3 comes on stream, the suburban office market
may have reached a point whereby vacancies have lowered and lease
rates have increased thus creating a more viable “pure” office
development.
Though shown as a Phase 3 component, the retail piece comprising
63,750 sf on 6.5 acres at the northwest corner of Mandeville Drive
and the new inner arterial, could be a piece that is developed in
Phase 2. However, with a mix that is envisioned to comprise Limited
Service Food & Beverage as well as local shops and services for the
industrial and office workers it is important that this not be
developed ahead of any necessary demand drivers.
Hotel uses for North Park should be re-evaluated after approximately
10 years to determine if demand still warrants a potential hotel
development in the range of 100 rooms. There is inherent flexibility
in the demand and land allocation to potentially accommodate shifts
in other land uses if the market dictates such, most notably in office
or retail.
Moreover, as Phase 3 develops the potential for a new overpass
connecting Mandeville Drive to Baxter Lane could become necessary
to allow for more seamless commuter movement as well as general
vehicle and pedestrian connectivity with N 19th Ave.
Phase 4
The final phase of the development retains the highest profile and
visible land fronting I-90 for such time that development along N19th
Ave as well as Bozeman Gateway could be built out. Additionally, any
retail development as proposed (187,000 sf on 19 acres) along this
stretch would be very dependent on a new overpass which isn’t
expected until Phase 3.
Land Use Development Strategy
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN || NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN76
78
The recreational land use shown in Phase 4, envisioned to be an
indoor and outdoor combined sports facility could be developed
earlier as an interim or transitional land use for longer term higher
and best use. While likely to not be developed privately, but more as
a joint venture, potential P3 (Public-Private-Partnership), a
recreational component, given Bozeman’s strong recreational culture
could well become a long term fixture at North Park.
9.4 Comparison of Market Demand to Development
Capacity
Table 9.2 provides a comparison of the Market-driven Demand
Forecasts to the year 2030 for Retail, Office, Industrial and Hotel to
the actual development program potential as summarized in Table
9.3.
The purpose of the comparison is to illustrate how the market shares
applied for quantifying demand for each applicable land use
correspond with the land use potential and development capacity of
North Park.
In particular, Table 9.2 highlights that by 2030, there is forecast to be
much more industrial site capacity (1,258,500 sf) than market
demand (617,700 sf) by 640,00 sf. The nature of industrial
development in terms of formats and potential to lure economic-
development driven demand (as opposed to market-driven demand)
suggests that this level of variance would require additional stimulus
and regional or most likely statewide catalytic development.
Conversely, with Retail it is important to work with the complexities
of tenant-driven and consumer demand in balancing the amount of
space that could or should be developed at North Park.
Retail, Office and Hotel when comparing the 2030 Market-Driven
demand to the site carrying capacity illustrates a largely balanced
picture, though the market in its current status with higher vacancy
rates will still need to recover before initial developments are
economically viable, thus illustrating the less aggressive amount of
traditional “pure” office space.
The Market Demand for office at 160,000 sf is higher than that
shown in the land capacity for traditional office space. However, it is
envisioned that office space will also occupy “flex” type Light
Industrial formats, thereby accommodating some of the forecasted
demand.
Therefore, the Phases identified are not necessarily tied to any
specific year horizons.
9.4 North Park Land Use Allocation by Parcel
Table 9.4 outlines in detail the land use allocation for each parcel and
its optimal land use. In particular, the table highlights the potential
net developable area taking into account typical parking, circulation,
landscaping requirements as well as typical building footprints and
densities that would be most achievable for North Park.
In summary, Table 9.4 illustrates that on the gross site area of 95.5
acres, a total of 1,113,95 sf of Net Leasable Space could be
developed on the site at a total Floor Area Ratio (FAR) of 0.30.
Land Use Development Strategy
Table 9.2 Comparison of Market Demand to Site Carrying Capacity
Phase 1 - 4 TOTAL to 2030
Retail 270,000 sf
Office 72,000 sf
Light Industrial 1,258,500 sf
Hotel 90 rooms
Market Demand to 2030
Retail 253,131 sf
Office 159,013 sf
Light Industrial 617,783 sf
Hotel 115 rooms
Difference of Phases 1 - 4 to Market Demand
Retail 16,869 sf
Office -87,013 sf
Light Industrial 640,717 sf
Hotel -25 rooms
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN |77
79
Table 9.3 North Park Land Use Demand Summary
Land Use Development Strategy
Land Use Segment
Retail 63,000 sf 207,000 sf 270,000 sf
Office 27,000 sf 45,000 sf 72,000 sf
Light Industrial 941,000 sf 317,500 sf 1,258,500 sf
Hotel 90 rooms 90 rooms
Land Use Segment
Retail 6.5 acres 19.0 acres 25.5 acres
Office 1.5 acres 2.5 acres 4.0 acres
Light Industrial 44.5 acres 19.5 acres 64.0 acres
Hotel 2.0 acres 2.0 acres
44.5 acres 21.0 acres 11.0 acres 19.0 acres 95.5 acres
Note: Total Gross Parcel Areas as measured/based on CTA LandWorks July 2012 Concept & Phasing Plan
PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4 TOTAL Phases 1 - 4
PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4 Total Phases 1 - 4
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN || NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN78
80
Table 9.4 North Park Land Use Allocation By Parcel
Land Use Development Strategy
Land Use Floor Area
Ratio (FAR)
Gross
Building Area
(GBA)
Avg. # of
Floors
Building
Floorplate
(SF)
Building Area
(Acres)
Building
Efficiency
Net Leasable
Area (NLA)
or Revenue
Space
Parking Ratio
per 1,000 sf
GLA or per
room
Parking
Spaces
Required &
Supplied by
Land Use
Total
Parking
Land Req'd
(Acres)
Net for
Roads &
Landscaping
Net
Developable
Gross
Site Area
PARCEL 1
Light Industrial Business Park/Tech 0.49 75,000 1.00 75,000 1.7 100% 75,000 1.0 75 0.8 1.1 2.4 3.5
PARCEL 2
Large User Industrial/Manufacturing 0.50 240,000 1.00 240,000 5.5 100% 240,000 1.0 240 2.5 3.5 7.5 11.0
PARCEL 3
Large User Industrial/Manufacturing 0.50 250,000 1.00 250,000 5.7 100% 250,000 1.0 250 2.6 3.7 7.8 11.5
PARCEL 4
Large User Industrial/Manufacturing 0.49 300,000 1.00 300,000 6.9 100% 300,000 1.0 300 3.1 4.5 9.5 14.0
PARCEL 5
Light Industrial Business Park/Tech 0.41 80,000 1.00 80,000 1.8 95% 76,000 2.0 152 1.6 1.4 3.1 4.5
PARCEL 6
Light Industrial Business Park/Tech 0.37 40,000 1.00 40,000 0.9 95% 38,000 2.0 76 0.8 0.8 1.7 2.5
PARCEL 7
Light Industrial Business Park/Tech 0.38 90,000 1.00 90,000 2.1 95% 85,500 2.0 171 1.8 1.8 3.7 5.5
PARCEL 8
Light Industrial Business Park/Tech 0.39 120,000 1.00 120,000 2.8 95% 114,000 2.0 228 2.4 2.2 4.8 7.0
PARCEL 9
Suburban Office 0.46 30,000 2.00 15,000 0.3 90% 27,000 3.0 81 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.5
Light Industrial Business Park/Tech 0.41 80,000 1.00 80,000 1.8 100% 80,000 2.0 160 1.7 1.4 3.1 4.5
PARCEL 10
Suburban Office 0.46 50,000 2.00 25,000 0.6 90% 45,000 3.0 135 1.1 0.8 1.7 2.5
PARCEL 11
Retail Commercial 0.25 70,000 1.00 70,000 1.6 90% 63,000 5.1 319 2.6 2.1 4.4 6.5
PARCEL 12
Hotel 0.77 67,500 3.00 22,500 0.5 80% 54,000 1.0 54 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.0
PARCEL 13
Retail Commercial 0.26 80,000 1.00 80,000 1.8 90% 72,000 4.6 333 2.7 2.2 4.8 7.0
PARCEL 14
Retail Commercial 0.29 150,000 1.00 150,000 3.4 90% 135,000 4.3 586 4.7 3.8 8.2 12.0
Land Use Floor Area
Ratio (FAR)
Gross
Building Area
(GBA)
Avg. # of
Floors
Building
Floorplate
(SF)
Building Area
(Acres)
Building
Efficiency
Net Leasable
Area (NLA)
or Revenue
Space
Parking Ratio
per 1,000 sf
GLA
Parking
Spaces
Required &
Supplied by
Land Use
Total
Parking
Land Req'd
(Acres)
Net for
Roads &
Landscaping
Net
Developable
Gross
Site Area
Suburban Office 0.46 80,000 2.00 40,000 0.9 90% 72,000 3.0 216 1.7 1.3 2.7 4.0
Light Industrial Business Park/Tech 0.40 485,000 1.00 485,000 11.1 97% 468,500 1.8 862 8.9 8.8 18.7 27.5
Large User Industrial/Manufacturing 0.50 790,000 1.00 790,000 18.1 100% 790,000 1.0 790 8.2 11.7 24.8 36.5
Retail Commercial 0.27 300,000 1.00 300,000 6.9 90% 270,000 4.6 1,238 9.9 8.2 17.3 25.5
Hotel 0.77 67,500 3.00 22,500 0.5 80% 54,000 1.0 54 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.0
TOTAL 0.41 1,722,500 1.1 1,637,500 37.6 96% 1,654,500 1.9 3,160 29.2 30.6 64.9 95.5
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN |79
9.5 Workshops
CTA along with representatives from the City of Bozeman and
DNRC facilitated two major workshops and public open houses
for the project. The first was an evening meeting on May 23, 2012
that was considered more of a strategic programming workshop.
Major comments taken from the workshop include:
• Feel this is still a good site for future waste transfer facility with
potential tie-in to rail transport.
• Suggest ideal location for industrial park/tech park.
• Supportive of location of indoor/outdoor sports complex within
development
• Concern expressed for location of heavy industry as well as
proliferation of shopping malls
• Include a trail next to Mandeville Creek and create a greenway.
• Need an overpass over I-90 and suggestions seem to be a strong
east-west connection of Griffin Drive to Baxter Drive.
• Bozeman needs a convention center and perhaps the North Park
site is the location.
A second workshop was conducted on June 28th which included
a strategic planning session of invited individuals with an interest
in the project followed by a public open house to discuss and
provide input for the project. The public was able to comment
on three land use options shown within as Option A, B and C
as well as gain insight to the results of the market assessment
process and preliminary findings.
Land Use Development Strategy
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN || NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN80
Land Use Development Strategy
Significant comments from the second series of workshops
include:
9.6 Land Use Planning
Based on the market analysis, the CTA Team developed a series of
land use plans that explore a variety of options to build-out the
project site. There are a number of consistent themes derived for
the land use plans from one option to another. The following is a
list of items that are considered necessary for all options:
• An overpass on Interstate 90 providing access into the site
• Expanded access on North 7th Street
• Continued use and improvement of the MRL crossing location on
the northernmost portio of the property
• Creation of rail siding along the existing MRL line with addition of a
second rail spur
• Buffering of the existing Mandeville Creek
• Light Industrial use bordering the railroad.
• Commercial land bordering the interstate.
Five land use planning options have been generated for the
project and noted as options A-E. Each option has various
iterations of landuse distribution and transportation circulation.
Based on ongoing meetings with community leaders, community
workshops and detailed analysis of the market data, Option D
was developed as the preferred alternative and Option C was also
viewed as a viable alternate to Option D. Each of these options
have been developed into a detailed master plan with a full
associated cost estimate broken out into phases.
Only the preferred option has been developed into a full market
feasibility study. What follows is a design analysis for the preferred
alternative master plan.
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN |81
Land Use Development Strategy
9.7 Master Plan-Preferred Alternative
The 275-acre North Park property is broken roughly into an
80-acre tract owned by the city of Bozeman and the remainder
is held by the DNRC. The preferred alternative master plan utilizes
a main boulevard separated road as a spine linking the rail
crossing location to the north of the site and sweeps through
the site crossing Mandeville creek and terminating to an
improved Mandeville Lane to the far southern boundary
linking with Wheat Drive to the South. The master plan proposes
linking to North 7th Street at Red Wind Drive and Flora Lane.
The Flora Lane extension loops on the West side of the site
forming a greenway drive along Mandeville Creek tying into
the main boulevard drive through the site.
Perhaps the key piece of the transportation component of the
project is the proposed overpass at Mandeville Lane connecting
to East Baxter Lane east of Interstate 90. While an interchange
is not feasible for the project, an overpass will provide indirect
access into the site and provide a community-wide east-west
access road to north 19th avenue and a direct east-west route
for the community across interstate 90.
As indicated earlier, an approximate one-mile rail siding
is proposed adjacent to the existing track and includes a
north-south spur through the middle of the northeastern
half of the property.
From a landuse perspective there are 30.5 acres of light industrial
planned for the northern portion of the site with a large 14 acre
tract of land designated as manufacturing. The northeast corner
of the North Park tract is the most ideal for heavier manufacturing.
It is most remote and is relatively hidden from within the property
and from adjacent lands.
The center portion of the site is slated for 15 acres of Tech and 6
acres of office space. At the northeast corner of the Mandeville
Lane and Wheat Drive intersection 2.5 acres are planned for Office
Space. The Northwest side of the intersection is slated for 6.5
acres of retail commercial with an adjacent 2 acres of hotel space.
Nineteen (19) acres adjacent to Interstate 90 are planned as retail
commercial.
Finally, splitting the City owned property and DNRC land along
Interstate 90 is recreation land that could be developed as an
indoor sports complex with associated outdoor sports fields.
This landuse can be viewed as temporary should development
pressure make the land more valued as commercial in the future.
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN || NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN82
Land Use Development Strategy
The proposed development infrastructure costs are
approximately $17.7 Million in 2012 dollars. Design assumptions
utilize Bozeman’s Uniform Development Code as guidelines for
construction and cost projections. The following are general
design assumptions for the preferred option:
• Roadways to include concrete curb and gutter with
asphalt road profile.
• Boulevard Road is separated by a ten foot landscape
planting median
• Ductile Iron Water Lines
• Two major detention basins planned for the development
• Street lighting throughout the boulevard roadway and at
intersections throughout the remainder of the development.
• All utilities including electric underground.
• Entry signage at four locations within the development.
• Street trees on 50’ centers throughout all roads.
• An asphalt bike trail following the greenway corridor of
Mandeville Creek.
• A 400’ bridge deck over Interstate 90 with four 12’ lanes and
two-two foot striping lanes on the outside for comfort
for bicyclists.
9.8 Scheduling
This section will explore timing of future tasks and conditions
required to develop the North Park Tract.
a. Environmental Assessments
Currently a required Environmental assessment is underway
for the project and will be completed prior to any actual
construction taking place.
b. Montana Rail Link
During the course of the planning process CTA has met with
representatives of Montana Rail Link and discussed the project
several times. It is a fair statement that Montana Rail Link (MRL)
has a significant interest in providing better rail service in
Bozeman. The North Park property offers an ideal access point
for a rail siding and spur line to provide rail service to the light
industrial and manufacturing proposed on the northern portion
of the site.
There is approximately one mile of spur and rail siding
proposed in the preferred alternative or roughly $1 M worth
of improvements. Currently, MRL has indicated that they will
not participate in building rail access lines but obviously that
is negotiable depending on the type of industry and
eventual tenants.
Recommendations include continual dialog with MRL throughout
the final engineering and development process in order to
make sure rail configuration planning is feasible. Ultimately the
rail siding, spur design and rail crossing signalization will be
coordinated and or designed by MRL.
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN |83
Land Use Development Strategy
Further coordination with MRL subsequent to this planning effort
should be encouraged specifically for marketing purposes of the
light industrial properties. The city and DNRC should coordinate
with MRL in order to utilize MRL’s network of marketing for
mutually beneficial businesses who may be interested in locating
in the North Park property.
c. Zoning
Currently the entire site is zoned either M1 or M2 or
manufacturing. While not necessarily required, rezoning of
the properties systematically may be desirable. Since this is
in essence a step down zoning it is easier than rezoning the
properties in the opposite direction. It is not recommended to
rezone all the properties immediately rather it is more likely and
desirable to rezone to an appropriate level of zoning at which
time the property is either platted or even sold or planned for
a tenant.
There are obviously potential pitfalls with this process as rezoning
numerous parcels over the years is cumbersome and from a
planning perspective is not ideal but given the length of time
necessary for full build-out much can change.
d. Preliminary Platting
The project envisions four (4) phases of construction of
infrastructure that coincides with a similar level of platting. It may
be in the City’s best interest to develop the project as a PUD with
multiple phases of construction. This will provide consistency for
tenants and landowners but yet give a level of flexibility for the
City of Bozeman and DNRC. At this point, the project would be
platted in four phases according to the phasing plan provided.
e. Infrastructure Development/Extension
Currently water and sewer exist through the site but work
was done prior to planning for the site and it is anticipated
that utilities will have to be replaced during construction.
Cost estimates for each preferred option define construction
of utilities within each development phase.
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN |NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN || NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN84
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8
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s
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0
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=
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7
No
r
t
h
P
a
r
k
O
p
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n
C
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN || NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN88
No
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h
P
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P
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Op
t
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D
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN |89
No
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h
P
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k
P
r
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p
e
r
t
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s
Co
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L
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d
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e
P
l
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n
Op
t
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D
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN || NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN90
Ma
n
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v
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O
p
t
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D
Gr
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4
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6
6
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Ut
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En
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No
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D
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN |91
No
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P
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P
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E
NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN || NORTH PARK CONCEPT LAND USE PLAN92
Produced for North Park Properties by
CTA ARCHITECTS ENGINEERS
411 East Main Street | Suite 101 | Bozeman, MT 59715
406.556.7100 ph | www.ctagroup.com