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Home My WebLink About21- Gallatin County Hazard Mitigation & Community Wildfire Protection Plan 01-13-21Hazard Mitigation & Community Wildfire Protection Plan - November 2020 Developed for the communities of: • Belgrade • Bozeman • Manhattan • Three Forks • West Yellowstone • Montana State University • Unincorporated Gallatin County ReadyGallatin.com/plans ES-1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Disasters can strike at any time in any place. In many cases, actions can be taken before disasters strike to reduce or eliminate potential negative impacts. These actions can often mitigate the adverse effects of disasters and protect life, property, the economic and other values. The Gallatin County Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) addresses 1 9 major hazards with respect to risk and vulnerabilities countywide, including the communities of Bozeman, Belgrade, Big Sky, Manhattan, Three Forks, and West Yellowston e. Through a collaborative planning process, the Gallatin County hazards were identified, researched, profiled, and prioritized. In addition, Montana State University (MSU) elected to update their 2013 Pre - Disaster Mitigation (PDM) Plan as an annex to the county’s HMP. The MSU Annex is designated as Annex A and is included in its entirety following the HMP Sections. The major hazards are each profiled in terms of their hazard description, history, probability and magnitude, mapping, vulnerabilities, data limitations, and other factors. The vulnerabilities to critical facilities; critical infrastructure; structures; the population; economic, ecologic, historic, and social values; and future development are updated for each hazard. Based on the probability a nd extent of potential impacts that were identified in the risk assessment, the prioritization s of hazards within Gallatin County are displayed in Table ES -1 . The countywide prioritizations are derived from hazard prioritization and ranking exercises held in five distinct community areas (districts) across the county in February 2018. A map (Figure 2-1) showing the community district boundaries can be found in Section 2.2.4 on page 2 -4. Estimates of risk for Gallat in County were developed using methodologies promoted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) hazard mitigation planning guidance [FEMA, 201 8a] and generated by FEMA’s HAZUS-MH 4.2 risk assessment tool [FEMA, 2018b]. MSU completed a similar pr ocess for identifying and ranking hazards that could affect the university community and the MSU -Bozeman campus. Many of the hazards identified by MSU overlap with hazards identified at the county level, however there are several hazards that are unique to the university. Regardless, the university setting has different vulnerabilities and risk mitigation capabilities that are tailored to its environment. The list and ranking of hazards for MSU can be found in Annex A. ES-2 Table ES-1-1. 2018 Gallatin County Hazard Prioritizations Level Hazard High Priority Critical Infrastructure Disruption (includes Cybersecurity) Drought Earthquake Severe Weather Wildfire Moderate Priority Avalanche and Landslide Civil Unrest Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism Environmental Hazards Flooding Ground Transportation Acci dent Hazardous Materials Release Urban Conflagration Violence (Violent Act / Attack) Low Priority Aviation Accident Dam Failure Railroad Accident Terrorism Volcanic Activity and Ash Fall The following goals are outlined in the Mitigation Strategy (Section 5.0) based on risk assessment results: / Goal 1: Reduce impacts from wildfire / Goal 2: Reduce impacts from severe weather and drought / Goal 3: R educe impacts from earthquakes / Goal 4: Reduce impacts from critical infrastructure disruption / Goal 5: Reduce impacts from flooding / Goal 6: Reduce losses from a transportation or hazardous materials accident / Goal 7: Prevent significant loss of life from communicable disease and bioterrorism / Goal 8: Promote all-hazard mitigation measures Associated with each of the goals are objectives and mitigation actions that range from implementing security measures to increasing available data to providing community education. The mitigation projects are prioritized based on c ost, feasibility, popula tion benefit, property benefit, and the probability and impact of the hazards being mitigated. An implementation plan outlines the suggested course of action, given the limited resources available to Gallatin County and individual jurisdictions . Gallatin County Emergency Management (GCEM) is responsible for implementing and maintaining the plan. Other recommended activities, such as integrating this plan into a variety of county, city, and town plans, regulations, and documents, will further the goals of hazard mitigation in Gallatin County. The Gallatin County HMP has been prepared in compliance with Section 322 of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Stafford Act),42 U.S. C. 5165, enacted under Sec. 104 of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000) Public Law 106-390 of October 30, 2000, as implemented in Title 44, Chapter 1, Part 201 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) dated October 2007, and most recently amended o n October 2, 2015 (80 FR 59459). The HMP includes risk assessments for multiple hazards, a public outreach effort, and development of a mitigation strategy that incorporates measures intended to eliminate or reduce the effects of future disasters within Gallatin County. FEMA requires state, tribal, and local governments to develop and adopt hazard mitigation plans as a condition for receiving certain types of non-emergency disaster assis tance, including funding for ES-3 mitigation projects. Through the Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grant programs (Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP, Pre -Disaster Mitigation -PDM, and Flood Mitigation Assistance -FMA), FEMA offers planning grants that suppo rt state, tribal, and local governments in developing and updating mitigation plans. The following web address (URL) provides a table that summarizes FEMA’s Assistance Programs and whether a mitigation plan is required to access each of the programs: (https://www.fema.gov/hazard -mitigation -plan-requrirement ). This plan has been approved by FEMA as a n accepted hazard mitigation plan; therefore, the county and various jurisdictions associated with the plan may be eligible for federal mitigation fund s and grants. This plan serves as a guide for understanding the major hazards present in Gallatin County and the communities/districts , including Montana State University -Bozeman (Annex A ), and provides a strategy for preventing or reducing some of the potential impacts that could result from these hazards. As part of this HMP update, GCEM elected to incorporate an update to the county’s Comm unity Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP) directly within the HMP document. There are several benefits to integrating a CWPP into the HMP document, as outlined in the FEMA publication , Integrating Community Wildfire Protection Plans and Natural Hazard Mitigati on Plans, which can be accessed at the following URL: (https://mil.wa.gov/uploads/pdf/PLANS/integrating -cwpps-and-hmps.pdf) The CWPP update is included as Attachment 1 to this HMP. TOC-1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Purpose ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........1-1 1.2 Authorities ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .....1-2 1.3 Background ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..1-2 1.4 Plan Scope and Organization ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..1-5 2.0 PLANNING PROCESS AND METHODOLOGIES ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 2-1 2.1 Initial Planning Process ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .............2-1 2.2 Plan Update Process ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................2-1 2.2.1 COMMUNITY CHANGES................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .....2-2 2.2.2 PLAN CHANGES ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................2-2 2.2.3 JURISDICTION PARTICIPATION ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........................2-3 2.2.4 NEIGHBORING COMMUNITIES ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...........................2-3 2.2.5 PUBLIC PARTICIPATION ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .....2-3 2.2.6 INCORPORATION OF EXISTING INFORMATION ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...2-5 2.3 Risk Assessment Methodologies ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................2-6 3.0 RISK ASSESSMENT AND COMMUNITY INVENTORY ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 3-1 3.1 Hazard Identification ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................3-1 3.2 Assets and Community Inventory ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...........................3-4 3.2.1 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .....3-4 3.3 Population and Structures ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........3-27 3.4 Economic, Ecologic, Historic, and Social Values ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................3-30 3.5 Current Land Use ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................3-30 3.6 New and Future Development ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .3-32 3.6.1 GROWTH POLICIES ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...........3-32 3.6.2 SUBDIVISION REGULATIONS ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................3-34 4.0 RISK ASSESSMENT/HAZARD PROFILES ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................... 4-35 4.1 Avalanche and Landslide ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........4-2 4.1.1 DESCRIPTION ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ....................4-2 4.1.2 HISTORY ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...........................4-3 TOC-2 4.1.3 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........................4-4 4.1.4 WARNINGS , WATCHES , AND ADVISORIES .........................................................................................................................................4-5 4.1.5 MAPPING ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4-6 4.1.6 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4-7 4.1.7 DATA LIMITATIONS ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-7 4.1.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-8 4.2 Aviation Accident ........................................................................................................................................................................................4-8 4.2.1 DESCRIPTION ....................................................................................................................................................................................4-8 4.2.2 HISTORY ...........................................................................................................................................................................................4-9 4.2.3 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-10 4.2.4 MAPPING ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4-10 4.2.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS .................................................................................................................................4-10 4.2.6 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4-11 4.2.7 DATA LIMITATIONS ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-12 4.2.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-12 4.3 Civil Unrest ....................................................................................................................................................................................................4-12 4.3.1 DESCRIPTION ....................................................................................................................................................................................4-12 4.3.2 HISTORY ...........................................................................................................................................................................................4-12 4.3.3 PROBABILITY .....................................................................................................................................................................................4-13 4.3.4 MAPPING ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4-13 4.3.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS .................................................................................................................................4-13 4.3.6 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4-13 4.3.7 DATA LIMITATIONS ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-13 4.3.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-14 4.4 Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism ............................................................................................................................................4-14 4.4.1 DESCRIPTION ....................................................................................................................................................................................4-14 TOC-3 4.4.2 HISTORY ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...........................4-18 4.4.3 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-18 4.4.4 MAPPING ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4-20 4.4.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS .................................................................................................................................4-20 4.4.6 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4-20 4.4.7 DATA LIMITATIONS ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-21 4.4.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-21 4.5 Critical Infrastructure Disruption (includes cyber-security).............................................................................................................4-22 4.5.1 DESCRIPTION ....................................................................................................................................................................................4-22 4.5.2 HISTORY ...........................................................................................................................................................................................4-22 4.5.3 PROBABILITY .....................................................................................................................................................................................4-22 4.5.4 MAPPING ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4-22 4.5.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS .................................................................................................................................4-23 4.5.6 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4-23 4.5.7 DATA LIMITATIONS ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-24 4.5.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-24 4.6 Dam Failure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................4-24 4.6.1 DESCRIPTION ....................................................................................................................................................................................4-24 4.6.2 HISTORY ...........................................................................................................................................................................................4-25 4.6.3 PROBABILITY .....................................................................................................................................................................................4-26 4.6.4 MAPPING ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4-26 4.6.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS .................................................................................................................................4-26 4.6.6 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4-26 4.6.7 DATA LIMITATIONS ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-30 4.6.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-30 4.7 Drought..........................................................................................................................................................................................................4-31 4.7.2 PROBABILITY ................................................................................................................................................................................4-32 4.7.3 MAPPING ......................................................................................................................................................................................4-33 4.7.4 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS .............................................................................................................................4-33 TOC-4 4.7.5 VULNERABILITY ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .................4-33 4.7.6 DATA LIMITATIONS ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-34 4.7.7 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-34 4.8 Earthquake ...................................................................................................................................................................................................4-35 4.8.1 DESCRIPTION ....................................................................................................................................................................................4-35 4.8.2 HISTORY ...........................................................................................................................................................................................4-35 4.8.3 PROBABILITY .....................................................................................................................................................................................4-37 4.8.4 MAPPING ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4-37 4.8.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS .................................................................................................................................4-37 4.8.6 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4-38 4.8.7 DATA LIMITATIONS ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-42 4.8.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-42 4.9 Environmental Haza rds .............................................................................................................................................................................4-42 4.9.1 DESCRIPTION ....................................................................................................................................................................................4-42 4.9.2 HISTORY ...........................................................................................................................................................................................4-42 4.9.3 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-42 4.9.4 MAPPING ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4-43 4.9.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS .................................................................................................................................4-43 4.9.6 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4-43 4.9.7 DATA LIMITATIONS ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-44 4.9.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-44 4.10 Flooding ......................................................................................................................................................................................................4-44 4.10.1 DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................................................................................4-44 4.10.2 HISTORY .........................................................................................................................................................................................4-45 4.10.4 PROBABILITY ..................................................................................................................................................................................4-47 4.10.5 MAPPING........................................................................................................................................................................................4-48 4.10.6 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS ...............................................................................................................................4-48 4.10.7 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-48 TOC-5 4.10.8 DATA LIMITATIONS.........................................................................................................................................................................4-49 4.10.9 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-49 4.11 Ground Transportation Accident .........................................................................................................................................................4-50 4.11.1 DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................................................................................4-50 4.11.2 HISTORY .........................................................................................................................................................................................4-50 4.11.3 PROBABILITY ..................................................................................................................................................................................4-50 4.11.4 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS ...............................................................................................................................4-50 4.11.5 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-51 4.11.6 DATA LIMITATIONS.........................................................................................................................................................................4-51 4.11.7 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-51 4.12 Hazardous Materials release .................................................................................................................................................................4-52 4.12.1 DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................................................................................4-52 4.12.2 PROBABILITY ..................................................................................................................................................................................4-52 4.12.3 MAPPING........................................................................................................................................................................................4-52 4.12.4 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS ...............................................................................................................................4-53 4.12.5 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-53 4.12.6 DATA LIMITATIONS.........................................................................................................................................................................4-54 4.12.7 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-54 4.13 Railroad Accident .....................................................................................................................................................................................4-55 4.13.1 DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................................................................................4-55 4.13.2 HISTORY .........................................................................................................................................................................................4-57 4.13.3 PROBABILITY ..................................................................................................................................................................................4-57 4.13.4 MAPPING........................................................................................................................................................................................4-57 4.13.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS ...............................................................................................................................4-57 4.13.6 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-57 TOC-6 4.13.7 DATA LIMITATIONS................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .........4-58 4.13.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-58 4.14 Severe Weather .........................................................................................................................................................................................4-59 4.14.1 DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................................................................................4-59 4.14.2 HISTORY .........................................................................................................................................................................................4-60 4.14.3 PROBABILITY ..................................................................................................................................................................................4-64 4.14.4 MAPPING........................................................................................................................................................................................4-64 4.14.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS ...............................................................................................................................4-64 4.14.6 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-65 4.14.7 DATA LIMITATIONS.........................................................................................................................................................................4-65 4.14.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-66 4.15 Terrorism ....................................................................................................................................................................................................4-66 4.15.1 DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................................................................................4-66 4.15.2 HISTORY .........................................................................................................................................................................................4-68 4.15.3 PROBABILITY ..................................................................................................................................................................................4-69 4.15.4 MAPPING........................................................................................................................................................................................4-69 4.15.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS ...............................................................................................................................4-69 4.15.6 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-69 4.15.7 DATA LIMITATIONS.........................................................................................................................................................................4-70 4.15.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-70 4.16 Urban Conflagration ................................................................................................................................................................................4-70 4.16.1 DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................................................................................4-70 4.16.2 HISTORY .........................................................................................................................................................................................4-71 4.16.3 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE ......................................................................................................................................................4-71 4.16.4 MAPPING........................................................................................................................................................................................4-71 4.16.5 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-71 4.16.6 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-2 4.17 Violence (Violent Act / Attack) ...............................................................................................................................................................4-70 4.17.1 DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................................................................................4-70 TOC-7 4.17.2 HISTORY ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .........................4-70 4.17.3 PROBABILITY ..................................................................................................................................................................................4-70 4.17.4 MAPPING........................................................................................................................................................................................4-71 4.17.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS ...............................................................................................................................4-71 4.17.6 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-71 4.17.7 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-72 4.18 Volcano .......................................................................................................................................................................................................4-72 4.18.1 DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................................................................................4-72 4.18.2 HISTORY .........................................................................................................................................................................................4-73 4.18.3 PROBABILITY ..................................................................................................................................................................................4-73 4.18.4 MAPPING........................................................................................................................................................................................4-74 4.18.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS ...............................................................................................................................4-74 4.18.6 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-74 4.18.7 DATA LIMITATIONS.........................................................................................................................................................................4-75 4.18.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-75 4.19 Wildfire ........................................................................................................................................................................................................4-76 4.19.1 DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................................................................................4-76 4.19.2 HISTORY .........................................................................................................................................................................................4-76 4.19.3 PROBABILITY ..................................................................................................................................................................................4-78 4.19.4 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS ...............................................................................................................................4-78 4.19.5 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-79 4.19.6 DATA LIMITATIONS.........................................................................................................................................................................4-80 4.19.7 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-1 4.20 Risk Assessment Summary ....................................................................................................................................................................4-1 4.20.1 HAZARD RANKING METHODOLOGY ...............................................................................................................................................4-2 5.0 MITIGATION STRATEGY ..................................................................................................................................................... 5-1 TOC-8 5.1 Goals and Objectives ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .................5-1 5.2 Action Identification and Prioritization..................................................................................................................................................5-3 5.2.1 SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO MITIGATION ACTIONS ...........................................................................................................................5-11 5.3 Implementation Plan ..................................................................................................................................................................................5-12 5.3.1 PROGRESS ON PREVIOUS MITIGATION ACTIONS ..............................................................................................................................5-12 5.3.2 MITIGATION IMPLEMENTATION PLAN ...............................................................................................................................................5-15 5.4 Existing Programs .......................................................................................................................................................................................5-22 5.4.1 GROWTH POLICIES ...........................................................................................................................................................................5-22 5.4.2 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PLANS ........................................................................................................................................................5-22 5.4.3 ZONING REGULATIONS .....................................................................................................................................................................5-22 5.4.4 SUBDIVISION REGULATIONS .............................................................................................................................................................5-23 5.4.5 ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ......................................................................................................................................................................5-23 5.4.6 TECHNICAL RESOURCES ...................................................................................................................................................................5-23 6.0 PLAN MAINTENANCE PROCEDURES ................................................................................................................................ 6-1 6.1 Plan Monitoring, Evaluation, and Updates ...........................................................................................................................................6-1 6.2 Public Involvement .....................................................................................................................................................................................6-2 ANNEX A MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY - BOZEMAN ........................................................................................................... 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................................. 6-1 2.0 PLANNING PROCESS ......................................................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Project Stakeholders ..................................................................................................................................................................................2-1 2.2 Existing Plans, Studies, and Policies ......................................................................................................................................................2-1 3.0 CAMPUS PROFILE .............................................................................................................................................................. 3-1 3.1 Campus Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................3-1 3.2 Campus Populations ..................................................................................................................................................................................3-2 3.3 Campus Economy .......................................................................................................................................................................................3-3 3.4 Critical and VuLNerable Resources and Values ..................................................................................................................................3-4 3.4.1 CAMPUS BUILDINGS .........................................................................................................................................................................3-4 3.4.2 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND SERVICES .................................................................................................................................................3-4 3.4.3 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ..............................................................................................................................................................3-8 TOC-9 3.4.4 SOCIAL AND ACADEMIC ASSETS .......................................................................................................................................................3-9 4.0 RISK ASSESSMENT/HAZARD PROFILES ........................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Active Killer (Shooter) .................................................................................................................................................................................4-1 4.1.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY .............................................................................................................................................................4-1 4.1.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-3 4.1.3 VULNERABILITIES ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-3 4.1.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-3 4.2 Communicable Disease .............................................................................................................................................................................4-3 4.2.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY .............................................................................................................................................................4-3 4.2.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-4 4.2.3 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4-4 4.2.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-4 4.3 Critical Infrastructure Disruption ............................................................................................................................................................4-5 4.3.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY .............................................................................................................................................................4-5 4.3.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-5 4.3.3 VULNERABILITIES ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-5 4.3.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-5 4.4 Cyber Threats ...............................................................................................................................................................................................4-6 4.4.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY .............................................................................................................................................................4-6 4.4.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-7 4.4.3 VULNERABILITIES ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-7 4.4.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-7 4.5 Earthquake ...................................................................................................................................................................................................4-7 4.5.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY .............................................................................................................................................................4-7 4.5.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-8 4.5.3 VULNERABILITIES ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-8 4.5.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-8 4.6 Environmental Hazards .............................................................................................................................................................................4-9 4.6.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY .............................................................................................................................................................4-9 4.6.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-9 TOC-10 4.6.3 VULNERABILITY ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .................4-9 4.6.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-9 4.7 Hazardous Material Incidents ..................................................................................................................................................................4-10 4.7.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY .............................................................................................................................................................4-10 4.7.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-11 4.7.3 VULNERABILITIES ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-11 4.7.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-12 4.8 Regulatory Compliance Risk ....................................................................................................................................................................4-12 4.8.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY .............................................................................................................................................................4-12 4.8.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-12 4.8.3 VULNERABILITIES ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-13 4.8.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-13 4.9 Severe Weather ...........................................................................................................................................................................................4-13 4.9.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY .............................................................................................................................................................4-13 4.9.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE .........................................................................................................................................................4-15 4.9.3 VULNERABILITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4-15 4.9.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................................4-16 4.10 Structure Fire .............................................................................................................................................................................................4-16 4.10.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY ...........................................................................................................................................................4-16 4.10.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE ......................................................................................................................................................4-19 4.10.3 VULNERABILITIES ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-19 4.10.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-20 4.11 Terrorism, Civil Unrest and Violenc e ...................................................................................................................................................4-21 4.11.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY ...........................................................................................................................................................4-21 4.11.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE ......................................................................................................................................................4-21 4.11.3 VULNERABILITIES ...........................................................................................................................................................................4-21 4.11.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILES .........................................................................................................................................................4-22 4.12 Volcanic Eruption .....................................................................................................................................................................................4-22 4.12.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY ...........................................................................................................................................................4-22 4.12.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE ......................................................................................................................................................4-22 4.12.3 VULNERABILITY ..............................................................................................................................................................................4-22 4.12.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................4-23 4.13 Future Development ................................................................................................................................................................................4-23 5.0 MITIGATION STRATEGIES ................................................................................................................................................. 5-1 5.1 Goals, Objectives, and Proposed Actions .............................................................................................................................................5-1 5.1.1 CREATIVE ARTS COMPLEX SEISMIC RETROFIT .................................................................................................................................5-3 5.2 Project Ranking and Prioritization ..........................................................................................................................................................5-5 5.3 Project Implementation .............................................................................................................................................................................5-11 5.4 Potential Funding Sources .......................................................................................................................................................................5-18 TOC-11 5.5 Legal Framework ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .........................5-18 5.6 Capability Assessment...............................................................................................................................................................................5-19 5.6.1 MSU-BOZEMAN ...............................................................................................................................................................................5-19 5.6.2 UNIVERSITY SERVICES ......................................................................................................................................................................5-20 5.6.3 CAMPUS PLANNING, DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ..........................................................................................................................5-20 5.6.4 EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT .............................................................................................................................................................5-20 5.6.5 MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ADMINISTRATION, ARCHITECTURE AND ENGINEERING DIVISION .........................................................5-21 5.6.6 GALLATIN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, ALL HAZARDS ALL DISCIPLINE (AHAD) GROUP .................................................5-21 5.6.7 GALLATIN COUNTY PUBLIC HEALTH .................................................................................................................................................5-21 6.0 PLAN MAINTENANCE PROCEDURES ................................................................................................................................ 6-1 6.1 Monitoring, Evaluating, and Updating The Plan .................................................................................................................................6-1 6.1.1 PROCESS USED PREVIOUSLY ............................................................................................................................................................6-1 6.1.2 FUTURE PLANNING PROCESS ...........................................................................................................................................................6-1 6.2 Implementation through Existing Programs ........................................................................................................................................6-2 6.3 Continued Public Involvement ................................................................................................................................................................6-2 APPENDIX A REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 APPENDIX B LIST OF PROJECT STAKEHOLDERS .................................................................................................................. 9 APPENDIX C MEETING ATTENDANCE RECORDS ................................................................................................................... 231 APPENDIX D SUMMARY OF PLAN CHANGES ......................................................................................................................... 253 2018 Plan Changes ...........................................................................................................................................................................................254 APPENDIX E PUBLIC AND STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ........................................................................................................ 256 APPENDIX F FEMA APPROVAL DOCUMENTATION ................................................................................................................ 257 APPENDIX G LOCAL PLAN ADOPTION DOCUMENTATION .................................................................................................... 258 ATTACHMENT 1 GALLATIN COUNTY COMMUNITY WILDFIRE PROTECTION PLAN (CWPP) 2018 UPDATE ....................... 259 ANNEXES ANNEX A: Montana State University -Bozeman APPENDICIES APPENDIX A: References APPENDIX B: List of Stakeholders / Stakeholder Invitation Letters / Meeting Announcement Documentation / Legal Notice Confirmation / Plan Comment and Feedback Solicitation APPENDIX C: Meeting Attendance Records TOC-12 APPENDIX D: Summary of Plan Changes APPENDIX E: Public and Stakeholder Comments APPENDIX F: FEMA Approval Documentation APPENDIX G: Local Plan Adoption Documentation ATTACHMENTS ATTACHMENT 1: Gallatin County Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP), 2018 Update TOC-13 LIST OF TABLES Table ES -1-1. 2018 Gallatin County Hazard Prioritizations ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 2 Table 1 -1. Gallatin County Climate Statistics [Western Regional Climate Center, 2017] ......................................................................... 1-5 Table 2 -1. Existing Local Plans and Documents Incorporated ........................................................................................................................ 2-5 Table 3 -1. Gallatin County Hazards ......................................................................................................................................................................... 3-2 Table 3 -2. Critical Facilities - Local Government and Law Enforcement ....................................................................................................... 3-4 Table 3 -3. Critical Facilities – Fire and Emergency Medical Service (EMS) Stations .................................................................................. 3-5 Table 3 -4. Critical Facilities - Hospitals and Clinics ............................................................................................................................................ 3-6 Table 3 -5. Critical Facilities - Transportation ....................................................................................................................................................... 3-8 Table 3 -6. Critical Facilities - State Government ................................................................................................................................................. 3-8 Table 3 -7. Critical Facilities - Federal Government ............................................................................................................................................. 3-9 Table 3 -8. Critical Facilities - Assisted Living and Senior Housing ................................................................................................................. 3-9 Table 3 -9. Critical Facilities - Schools ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3-10 Table 3 -10. Critical Facilities - Child Care, Day Care and Preschools ............................................................................................................ 3-13 Table 3 -11. Critical Facilities - Utility and Infrastructure Services .................................................................................................................. 3-23 Table 3 -12. Home Heating Fuel [US Census, 2013 -2017 American Community Survey (ACS), 2018b] ............................................. 3-26 Table 3 -13. Population Statistics [U.S. Census Bureau, 2018a] ...................................................................................................................... 3-27 Table 3 -14. Housing Statistics [US Census, 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS), 2018b] ............................................... 3-28 Table 3 -15. Structure Age [US Census, 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS), 2018b] ....................................................... 3-28 Table 3 -16. Structure Value [US Census, 2013 -2017 American Community Survey (ACS), 2018b] .................................................... 3-28 Table 4 -1. Avalanche Fatalities in Gallatin County [Avalanches.org 2018].................................................................................................. 4-3 Table 4 -2. Aviation Accidents in Gallatin County [NTSB, 2017] ...................................................................................................................... 4-9 Table 4 -3. Accident Summary [NTSB, 2017] ........................................................................................................................................................ 4-10 Table 4 -4. Documented Communicable Disease in Gallatin County [Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services, 2018] ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4-18 Table 4-5. Dams Located in Gallatin County (or with potential significant impacts to the county) [National Inventory of Dams, 2017] ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4-25 Table 4 -6. Gallatin County Droug ht Periods since 1900 [National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2018] .......... 4-32 Table 4 -7. Earthquakes Magnitude 5.5 or greater within 100 miles of Gallatin County, Montana [US Geological Survey (USGS), 2017] ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4-35 Table 4 -8. Critical Facility Functionality1 Following an Earthquake ............................................................................................................... 4-40 Table 4 -9. Estimated Infrastructure Losses Following an Earthquake (6.5 magnitude Bridger Fault, 7.5 magnitude Madison Fault) ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4-40 Table 4 -10. Expected Building Damage by Occupancy during 6.5 Magnitude Earthquake on Bridger Fault .................................... 4-41 Table 4 -11. Expected Building Damage by Occupancy during 7.5 Magnitude Earthquake on Madison Fault .................................. 4-41 Table 4 -12. Gallatin County Historical Flood Events. ......................................................................................................................................... 4-46 Table 4 -13. Peak Discharges and Exceedance Probabilities for Streams in Gallatin County .................................................................. 4-48 TOC-14 Table 4 -14. Railroad Accidents in Gallatin County, Montana [Federal Railroad Administration, 2018]1 ................................ ............. 4-55 Table 4 -15. Severe Weather E vents in Gallatin County since 2000 [NRCS -NWCC, 2017] ...................................................................... 4-60 Table 4 -16. Probability of Hazard Occurrence - Ranking Factors .................................................................................................................. 4-2 Table 4 -17. Numerical Values and Definitions for Impacts on Population, Property, and Economy ..................................................... 4-2 Table 4 -18. Ga llatin County Hazard Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 4-4 Table 4 -19. Belgrade Hazard Summary (District 4) ............................................................................................................................................. 4-4 Table 4 -20. Big Sky Hazard Summary (District 2) ................................................................................................................................................ 4-5 Table 4 -21. Bozeman Hazard Summary (District 3) ............................................................................................................................................ 4-6 Table 4 -22. Manhattan and Three Forks Hazard Summary (District 5) ......................................................................................................... 4-6 Table 4 -23. West Yellowstone Hazard Summary (District 1) ............................................................................................................................. 4-7 Table 5 -1. Goals, Objectives, and Prioritized Mitigation Actions (Projects) .................................................................................................. 5-4 Table 5 -2 Implementation Plan for Mitigation Actions in Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities/Towns ........................................ 5-15 Table 6 -1. Schedul e of Plan Updates ...................................................................................................................................................................... 6-2 Table 4-1. Hazardous Material Incidents at MSU-Bozeman ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................. 4-10 Table 4-2. Severe Summer Weather at MSU-Bozeman ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 4-14 Table 4-3. MSU-Bozeman Fire Log (Montana State University, 2018) ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 4-17 Table 5-1. Mitigation Project Cost-Benefit Matrix ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 5-5 Table 5-2. MSU-Bozeman Mitigation Strategy: Project Ranking and Responsible Departments ................................ .......................... 5-6 Table 5-3. MSU-Bozeman Mitigation Strategy: Progress Made, Planned Activities, Status and Funding Sources .................. [ = project completed = project deleted = new project ] ................................ ................................ ........ 5-12 TOC-15 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 -1. Gallatin County Location ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 1-3 Figure 1 -2. Gallatin County Features ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1-4 Figure 3 -1. Critical Facilities Overview ................................................................................................................................................................... 3-15 Figure 3 -2. Belgrade Critical Facilities .................................................................................................................................................................... 3-16 Figure 3 -3. Big Sky Critical Facilities ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3-17 Figure 3 -4. Bozeman Critical Facilities ................................................................................................................................................................... 3-18 Figure 3 -5. Four Corners Critical Facilities ............................................................................................................................................................ 3-19 Figure 3 -6. Ma nhattan Critical Facilities ................................................................................................................................................................ 3-20 Figure 3 -7. Three Forks Critical Facilities .............................................................................................................................................................. 3-21 Figure 3 -8. West Yellowstone Critical Facilities.................................................................................................................................................... 3-22 Figure 3 -9. Major Natural Gas and Petroleum Pipeline Routes (from N2ational Pipeline Mapping System, www.npms.phmsa.dot.gov ) .......................................................................................................................................................................... 3-25 Figure 3 -10. Structure Locations ............................................................................................................................................................................. 3-29 Figure 3 -11. Gallatin County Land Ownership ..................................................................................................................................................... 3-31 Figure 4 -1. Avalanche Fatalities by Avalanche Year [Colorado Avalanche Information Center, US Avalanche Accident Reports for Montana, 2017] ......................................................................................................................................................................... 4-3 Figure 4 -2. Avalanche Fatalities in Montana by Month [Colorado Avalanche Information Center, US Avalanche Accident Reports for Montana, 2017] ......................................................................................................................................................................... 4-5 Figure 4 -3. Avalanche Danger Scale ...................................................................................................................................................................... 4-6 Figure 4 -4. Map of breach inundation areas for High-Hazard Dams in, or affecting, Gallatin County. ................................................ 4-28 Figure 4 -5. Middle Creek Dam Inundation Area – Overtopping Breach Analysis (HDR, DNRC, 2018) .................................................. 4-29 Figure 4 -6. US Drought Monitor Map [US Drought Monitor, 2019] ............................................................................................................... 4-31 Figure 4 -7. Palmer Drought Severity Index (2000 -2017) [Montana County Drought Status Maps, 2018] ......................................... 4-32 Figure 4 -8. Earthquake Hazard in Gallatin County .............................................................................................................................................. 4-39 Figure 4 -9. USGS Graphic Depicting Recurrence Intervals for Geological Events in Yellowstone National Park ............................... 4-74 TOC-16 LIST OF ACRONYMS ACS – American Community Survey (US Census) AHAD – All Hazards All Disciplines A.D. – Anno Domini BFE – Base Flood Elevation BLM – Bureau of Land Management BNSF – Burlington Northern Santa Fe CAMA – Computer Assisted Mass Appraisal CDBG – Community Development Block Grant CDCP – Centers for Disease Control & Prevention CFR – Code of Federal Regulations CFS – Cubic Feet per Second CGNF – Custer-Gallatin National Forest CMZ – Channel Migration Zone CWPP – Community Wildfire Protection Plan DEM – Digital Elevation Model DEQ – Department of Environmental Quality DES – Disaster and Emergency Services DHS – Department of Homeland Security DMA – Disaster Mitigation Act DNRC – Department of Natural Resources and Conservation DOT – Department of Transportation DPHHS – Department of Public Hea lth and Human Services EAP – Emergency Action Plan EDA – Economic Development Administration EO – Executive Order EOC – Emergency Operations Center EMS – Emergency Medical Services EPA – Environmental Protection Agency EPCRA – Emergency Planning Community Right-to-Know Act FBI – Federal Bureau of Investigation FEMA – Federal Emergency Management Agency FIRM – Flood Insurance Rate Map FIS – Flood Insurance Study FMA – Flood Mitigation Assistance FR – Federal Register FRA – Federal Railroad Administration FS – Forest Service FWS – Fish & Wildlife Service GCEM – Gallatin County Emergency Management GIS – Geographic Information System GNFAC – Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center HAZMAT – Hazardous Materials HAZUS-MH – Hazards United States Multi -Hazard HMGP – Hazard Mitigation Grant Program HMP – Hazard Mitigation Plan HUD – Housing and Urban Development HVAC – Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning ITRR – Institute for Tourism & Recreation Research TOC-17 LIST OF ACRONYMS (CONTINUED) LANDFIRE – Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project LP – Liquefied Petroleum (propane) MATIC – Montana All Threat Intelligence Center MCA – Montana Code Annotated MCI – Mass Casualty Incident MDT – Montana Department of Transpor tation MRL – Montana Rail Link MSU – Montana State University NCDC – National Climatic Data Center NIFC – National Interagency Fire Center NIH – National Institutes of Health NFIP – National Flood Insurance Program NFP – National Fire Plan NID – National Inventory of Dams NOAA – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NP – National Park NPMS – National Pipeline Mapping System NRCS – Natural Resources Conservation S ervice NRMRCD – Northern Rocky Mountain Resource Conservation and Development NTSB – National Transportation Safety Board NWCC – National Water & Climate Center (USDA) NWS – National Weather Service OPEC – Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries PCB – Polychlorinated Biphenyls PDM – Pre-Disaster Mitigation PGA – Peak Ground Acceleration RAWS – Remote Automated Weather Stations RFA – Rural Fire Assistance RFP – Request for Proposal RFC – Repetitive Flood Claims SARA – Superfund Amendment and Reauthorization Act SARS – Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SBA – Small Business Administration SFHA – Special Flood Hazard Area SHELDUS – Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States SRL – Severe Repetitive Loss STAPLEE – Social, Technical, Administrative, Political, Legal, Economic, Environmental URL – Uniform Resource Locator USACE – United States Army Corps of Engineers USDA – United States Department of Agriculture USGS – United States Geological Survey USFA – United States Fire Administration USFS – United States Forest Service VFA – Volunteer Fire Assistance WMD – Weapons of Mass Destruction WPDG – Wetland Program Development Grant WUI – Wildland Urban Interface YNP – Yellowstone National Park YVO – Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 1 -1 1.0 INTRODUCTION Emergency management is typically divided into four interrelated actions: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. This plan focuses on the mitigation phase only. Mitigation actions involve lasting, often permanent, reduction of, exposure to, probability of, or potential loss from hazard events. These actions tend to be centered on where and how to build, improvements and modifications (retrofits) to existing structures to increase resiliency, and management of potential hazards such as wildfire fuel mitigation activities. Examples include zoning and building code requirements for building or rebuild ing in high hazard areas, floodplain buyouts, and prescribed forest management (burning and thinning) . Mitigation also can involve educating businesses and the public on simple measures they can take to reduce loss and injury, like fastening bookshelves, w ater heaters, and file cabinets to walls to keep them from falling during earthquakes. Cost-effective mitigation measures are the key to reducing disaster losses in the long term. In hazard - prone areas, mitigation can break the cycle of having to rebuild repeatedly with every recurrence of floods, wildfires, earthquakes, or other hazards. Where there is a willingness to mitigate, opportunities can be found. Ongoing efforts might include: educating the private sector about what it can do to mitigate at home and at work; reaching out to planning, zoning, and development agencies to ensure that hazard conditions are considered in comprehensive plans, construction permits, building codes, design approvals, etc. ; and creating inventories of existing structures and their vulnerabilities, to aid mitigation planning. Planning is also needed to take advantage of mitigation opportunities in the aftermath of an emergency or disaster when hazard awareness is high, funds are possibly available, and disruption of the status quo makes it possible to rethink design and location of some facilities and infrastructure. Attention to mitigation opportunities can make safer communities. The HMP is a combined effort of Gallatin County; the cities of Bozeman, Belgrade, and Three Fo rks; the Towns of Manhattan and West Yellowsto ne; the communit y of Big Sky; Montana State University -Bozeman; and the public. 1.1 PURPOSE Gallatin County recognizes that hazards, both natural and human -caused, threaten communities. Rather than wait until disaster strikes, the jurisdictions can take proactive measures to prevent losses and lessen the impact from these hazards. Actions taken to reduce or eliminate the long -term risk from hazards are defined as mitigation. Disaster mitigation is an investment that can save lives and money. The purpose of this HMP is to: / Serve as a consolidated, comprehensive source of hazard information / Educate the communities, including government leaders and the public, on their vulnerabilities / Fulfill federal, state, and local hazard mitigation planning responsibilities / Prioritize and promote cost -effective mitigation solutions / Support requests for grant funding / Encourage long-term community sustainability Effective mitigation planning promotes a broader understanding of t he hazards threatening the communities and provides a clearer vision and competitive edge for future mitigation grant funding. By 1 -2 integrating mitigation concepts into local thinking, the communities will find many more opportunities for disaster resistance beyond grant funding. For example, the consideration of disaster mitigation when designing subdivisions may include multiple access points or removal of drinking water wells from the floodplain that will provide greater disaster resistance, reduce future expenses and contribute to community sustainability. The plan’s intent is to assist the communities in making financial decisions for mitigation projects and clarify actions that could be taken through additional funding. Through an effective and inclusiv e planning process, communities will become more aware of their hazards and will take a proactive approach to disaster prevention and mitigation. 1.2 AUTHORITIES The Gallatin County HMP was prepared in compliance with Section 322 of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Stafford Act),42 U.S. C. 5165, enacted under Sec. 104 of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000), Public Law 106-390 of October 30, 2000, as implemented in Title 44, Chapter 1, Part 201 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) dated October 2007, and most recently amended in October 2015. This legislation required all local governments to have an approved hazard mitigation plan in place to be eligible to receive Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP), Pre - Disaster Mitigation (PDM), and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) funding, as well as other types of disaster and mitigation funding. Gallatin County and the c ities of Bozeman, Belgrade, and Three Forks , and the T owns of Manhattan and West Yellowstone have a dopted this HMP by resolution (see Appendix G for copies of the resolutions). Montana State University - Bozeman has adopted the HMP and specifically, Annex A, which updates their 2013 PDM Plan, by executive letter (Appendix G). These governing bodies have the authority to promote mitigation activities in their jurisdictions. This plan is developed, promulgated, and maintained pursuant to the following state and federal statutes and regulations: / Code of Federal Regulations Title 44, Part 201, 205 and 206 / Public Law 106-390, Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 / Public Law 93 -288, The Disaster Relief Act of 1974, as amended by Public Law 100-707, the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act / Public Law 96 -342, Improved Civil Defense 1980 / Public Law 99 -499, Superfund Amendment and Re -authorization Act (SARA) of 1986, Title III, Emergency Planning Community Right-to -Know (EPCRA), Title 42, Chapter 116 / Public Law 920, Federal Civil Defense Act of 1950, as amended / Public Law 105-19, Volunteer Protection Act of 1997 / Response to Hazardous Materials Incidents, Title 10, Chapter 3, Part 12 MCA 1.3 BACKGROUND Gallatin C ounty is located in southwest Montana as shown in Figure 1 -1 , with an area of approximately 2,631 square miles and elevations ranging from approximately 4,000 to 10,700 feet. Gallatin County is 1 -3 bordered by Meagher County to the north, Park County to th e east, Jefferson and Broadwater Counties to the northwest, Madison County to the west , and Yellowstone National Park to the southeast. The City of Bozeman is the county seat and other incorporated communities include the cities of Belgrade and Three Forks , and the Towns of Manhattan and West Yellowstone . The communities of Big Sky, Four Corners, and Gallatin Gateway represent other population centers . Figure 1-1. Gallatin County Location Figure 1 -2 shows the general features in the county. Gallatin County covers over 2,500 squar e miles of land area varying in topography. Nearly half of all the land in Gallatin County is under public ownership by the USDA Forest Service, State of Montana, Bureau of Land Management, or the National Park Service. The county contains several mountain ranges which are marked by pristine rivers, creeks, and streams. The Gallatin River flows through Gallatin County from the top of the Gallatin Canyon through Belgrade and on to Manhattan and Three Forks where it flows into the headwaters of the Missouri River. (Montana State University) 1 -4 Figure 1-2. Gallatin County Features Montana State University 1 -5 The climate of Gallatin County varies greatly. Table 1 -1 details the climate statistics recorded by four weather stations positioned within the county. Table 1-1. Gallatin County Climate Statistics [Western Regional Climate Center, 2017] Montana State University 1982 - 2016 Belgrade (Bozeman- Yellowstone Int’l Airpo 1941 - 2016 Trident 1922 - 2016 West Yellowston 1924 - 2013 Annual Average Maximum Dai Temperature 55.2°F 56.0°F 60.2°F 50.3°F Annual Average Minimum Daily Temperature 31.2°F 28.2°F 32.0°F 19.6°F Annual Average Total Precipitation 18.48 inches 13.92 inches 12.43 inches 21.56 inches Annual Average Total Snowfall 86.0 inches 47.0 inches 28.5 inches 160.10 inches Highest Temperature Recorded 105°F July 31, 1892 106°F July 6, 2007 109°F July 22, 1931 97°F July 19, 1936 Lowest Temperature Recorded -43°F February 8, 1936 -46°F January 26, 1957 -55°F December 31, 1927 -66°F February 9, 1933 Annual Average Number of Days Dropping Below Freezing 181.7 days 199.3 days 172.2 days 270.7 days Annual Average Number of Days Staying Below Freezing 48.0 days 51.9 days 33.6 days 87.8 days Annual Average Number of Days Reaching 90 °F or Higher 7.4 days 19.8 days 31.3 days 2.2 days Highest Annual Precipitation 25.57 inches 1997 20.04 inches 1969 20.96 inches 1997 29.32 inches 1955 Lowest Annual Precipitation 10.54 inches 1934 8.65 inches 1961 6.42 inches 1974 15.68 inches 1934 1-Day Maximum Precipitation 2.68 inches May 7, 1988 2.14 inches June 25, 1969 2.00 inches May 25, 1980 2.70 inches June 17, 1925 Highest Annual Snowfall 159.5 inches 1975 87.4 inches 1955 75.0 inches 1989 276.1 inches 1994 1.4 PLAN SCOPE AND ORGANIZATION The Gallatin County HMP is organized into sections that describe the planning process (Section 2.0 ), assets and community inventory (Section 3.0 ), risk assessment/hazard profiles (Section 4.0 ), mitigation strategies (Section 5.0), and plan maintenance (Section 6.0). Appendices containing supporting information are included at the end of the plan. Montana State University - Bozeman has elected to update their 2013 PDM Plan as an annex to the 2018 Gallatin County HMP. The MSU Emergency Management Coordinator, as well as other MSU representatives, participated in the county HMP update process , and conducted their own risk assessment (hazard identification/ranking) and developed a mitigation strategy specific to the university. This plan, particularly the risk assessment section, outlines each hazard in detail and how it may affect Gallatin County. The mitigation strategy outlines long -term solutions to possibly prevent or reduce future damages. Additional hazards may exist that were not apparent to local government or participants through the development of this plan, and certainly, disasters can occur in unexpected ways. Although any and all hazards cannot be fully mitigated, this plan will help the communities understand the hazards better and become more disaster resistant and resilient. 2 -1 2.0 PLANNING PROCESS AND METHODOLOGIES Mitigation planning is a community effort and takes time and expertise. For Gallatin County, an effective hazard mitigation plan requires input from a variety of stakeholders, including elected officials, first responders, emergency management, healthcare providers, public works, road officials, state and federal agencies, businesses, non‐profit organizations, academia, and the public. After a disaster, many of these stakeholders will be overwhelmed with recovery responsibilities. Therefore, planning for mitigation and involving as many stakeholders as possible before a disaster strikes will make mitigation activities easier after a disaster and may even prevent the disaster in the first place. 2.1 INITIAL PLANNING PROCESS The planning process for the county’s first hazard mitigation plan began in January 2001 with an advertised public meeting that was held to kick-off original Project Impact efforts . Over several years , Project Impact was phased out and the Gallatin County All Hazards All Discipline s (AHAD) group became the primary guiding body for HMP development. The AHAD group consists of representatives from local emergency management, fire services, medical and health services, law enforcement, media, public individuals, voluntary organizations, a nd government administration. M eetings were held throughout 2004 and 2005 with the AHAD group for the purposes of identifying critical facilities, reviewing draft sections, and developing mitigation strategies. Once draft sections were completed, they were distributed over e-mail for review. The full draft of the HMP was posted on the GCEM website to solicit public review and comment. Final public requests soliciting comments on the full draft plan were posted in February 2006, with final plan adoption later that year. In 2011, the 5-year plan revision process was initiated with public stakeholder meetings. This process culminated in an update d HMP that was approved by FEMA on September 18, 2012. 2.2 PLAN UPDATE PROCESS In 2017, Gallatin County once again prepared to update the HMP, through issuance of a Request for Proposals (RFP). A local consultant, RESPEC Inc., was hired to facilitate the plan update for Gallatin County. RESPEC provided experience in hazard mitigation and emergency management and coordinated the planning process in partnership with the county, cities , towns, MSU-Bozeman, and community a t large . GCEM acted as the main governmental entity responsible for management and maintenance of the HMP. The AHAD group once again served as the primary forum for HMP update participation and review via presentations of plan status and solicitation of comments and input. The 2018 Plan update builds on the original 200 6 plan and the updated 20 12 plan with revised data for each of the defined hazards, and an updated and reprioritized list of goals and actions to mitigate identified risk s. These risks were discussed with community members in several public meetings held across the county . HAZUS -MH 4.2 and other GIS data were used to provide updated maps as well as data. The plan update process consisted of the following steps: 2 -2 1. Initial review of the existing plan was undertaken by the contractor . 2. A proposed outline for the updated plan was developed . 3. Initial public meetings were held to inform the public on the upcoming plan update, and to solicit preliminary comments. The meetings were advertised in the Bozeman Daily Chronicle, on the GCEM website, and invitations were sent directly to identified st akeholders. 4. Subsequent public meeting s were held to solicit comment on the existing plan , to determine what changes and accomplishments have taken place in the county and the jurisdictions over the past five years, and to brainstor m ideas (new hazards, mitigation strategies) for the updated version . 5. The Mitigation Strategy and remaining sections were updated . 6. Stakeholders were asked to review the draft plan and provide comments . 7. The Draft Final plan update, including the MSU Annex, was posted on the GCEM w ebsite for review and comment . 8. Following the public comment period, any comments received were incorporated and the final plan was sent to the state and FEMA for review . 9. Jurisdictions adopted the updated plan, either before or immediately after state and FEMA conditional approval . 2.2.1 COMMUNITY CHANGES A driving force in updating this type of plan involves the changes that have occurred in the community over the past five years. Perhaps the biggest change in Gallatin County has been the significant incre ase in population and the associated commercial and residential housing growth. According to U.S. Census e stimates, the Gallatin County population increased by 25 % between 2010 and 2018 , placing it among the fastest-growing counties in the nation [U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 a]. 2.2.2 PLAN CHANGES Another principal component to updating the plan is adherence to the latest requirements for HMP development, as provided by the federal government. Compliance requires periodic additions and changes to the plan. Some of these changes were proposed and made by the contractor and reviewed by the communities. Other changes were proposed by community members and included where applicable. Data, methods, and information used in the initial 2006 HMP and the 2012 HMP update were reviewed by the contractor and changes made where updated information was available. Other items, such as mitigation actions and plan maintenance procedures, were reviewed by local individuals and changes made as necessary. Appendix D provides a summary of HMP changes completed with this 2018 update. This 5-year plan review featured updates to all sections to improve readability, usability, and methodologies. Specifically, the following major changes were part of the plan’s update: / Addition of an E xecutive S ummary / Updated description of the planning process, to include this 2018 revision and the MSU Annex / One new hazard was identified (Environmental Hazards); several others were modified and/or combined, or segregated into separate hazards / Updated Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping was added / The Community Inventory included s ections specific to critical facilities and infrastructure, population, structures, and economic, ecologic, historic, and social values 2 -3 / New mitigation go als and strategies were added, some were modified, and others removed to reflect current conditions and completion of mitigation actions from the previous plan / New appendices were added, as necessary 2.2.3 JURISDICTION PARTICIPATION This plan includes the following communities and jurisdictions : / Gallatin County / City of Belgrade / Community of Big Sky / City of Bozeman / Town of Manhattan / City of Three Forks / Town of West Yellowstone / Montana State University – Bozeman (Annex A) Each jurisdiction participated in a variety of ways depending on the resources that were available. Gallatin County applied for, received, and managed the funding for the plan update. Representatives from several county offices were active in all aspects of the plan’s update. The cities and towns participated in the plan’s update by sending representatives to public meetings, discussing elements of the plan at the public meetings and with the contractor, providing information and comments to the contractor when requested, hosting public meetings, and reviewing the draft plan. Appendix C provides copies of sign in sheets for the plan revision process. The MSU Emergency Management Coordinator participated in the county HMP update process; MSU also conducted their own risk assessment (hazard identification/ranking) and developed a mitigation strategy specific to the university. Appendix B provides a general list of project stakeholders ; stakeholder participation invitation letters; community letters and e -mail notices for public meetings; legal order confirmation; and e -mail announcements and GCEM webpage postings used to solicit comments and feedback for draft versions of the HMP. 2.2.4 NEIGHBORING COMMUNITIES Representatives from Broadwater, Madison and Park counties were invited to participate in the planning process via personal letter and attended at least one meeting. Invitation letters were not sent to representatives in either Jefferson or Meagher counties, and no one participated in the planning process from those jurisdictions. It is noted that both J efferson and Meagher counties have relatively small borders with Gallatin County with no primary connecting roads and limited interaction. 2.2.5 PUBLIC PARTICIPATION To encourage public interaction and participation in plan content and development, the county was divided into five districts which cover the following areas (refer to Figure 2 -1 ): / District 1: Hebgen Basin – West Yellowstone – Yellowstone National Park / District 2: Big Sky – Taylor Fork / District 3: Bozeman – Four Corners (S & E) – Gallatin Gateway – Hyalite – Bear Canyon – Bozeman Pass – Bridger Canyon – Sedan / District 4: Belgrade – Four Corners (N & W) – Dry Creek – Springhill – Menard - Maudlow – North Bridger / District 5: Cherry Creek – Amsterdam/Churchill – Manhattan – Three Forks – Willow Creek – Madison River – Trident/Clarkston Initial public meetings were held in each district in October 2017 at the following locations – West Yellowstone, Big Sky, Gallatin Gateway, Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan, and Three Forks . Follow-up meetings were held in February 20 18 in the same locations, excluding Ga llatin Gateway and Manhattan (lists of meeting attendees for both the October 2017 and February 2018 public meetings are provided in Appendix C). The completed draft document was posted on the GCEM website in Spring 2019. Public c omments could be provided by email or via an online form for comments available on the GCEM website . Any comments received were reviewed and integrated where applicable. Comments were readily accepted throughout the planning process. 2 -2 Since county commission and town council meetin gs are also open public meetings, the discussions and subsequent adoption of the plan by the governing bodies provided additional opportunities for public comment. The jurisdictions advertised these meetings using their usual public notification procedures, typically by posting meeting agendas on their websites, in local newspapers, and at the meeting locations . All jurisdictions adopted the plan through resolution or executive letter upon completion . 2 -4 Figure 2-1: Community District Boundaries for Hazard Prioritization 2 -5 2.2.6 INCORPORATION OF EXISTING INFORMATION Information from existing plans, studies, reports, and technical information related to hazards, mitigation, and community planning were gathered via personal contact throughout the planning process , and by reviewing the 2006 and 2012 plans. Many national and state plans, reports, and studies provided background information. Data processing and map production was completed by RESPEC using information collected from a wide variety of sources, including the 200 6 and 2012 HMPs and subject matter experts. The information was organized into a clear, usable, and maintainable format for the c ounty ensuring that federal regulations regarding hazard mitigation plans were met. A list of existing local plans and documents that were evalua ted as part of plan development is included in Table 2 -1 . Appendix A includes a list of reference sources for information accessed and included in the HMP. Table 2-1. Existing Local Plans and Documents Incorporated Plan/Report/Study Name Plan/Document Date Gallatin County Growth Policy 2003 (currently being updated w expected completion in 2021) Gallatin County Subdivision Regulations March 2019 City of Bozeman Capital Improvements Program (FY 2018 – 2022) February 2017 Prospera Economic Profile of Gallatin and Park Counties 2017 and 2018 Bozeman Municipal Code January 2018 Bozeman Community Plan (Growth Policy) June 2009 (update to Plan is bein finalized in 2019) Bozeman Unified Development Code March 2018 Belgrade Growth Policy October 2006 (update to Growth Policy to be completed in 2019) West Yellowstone Growth Policy 2017 Manhattan Municipal Code updated April 2018 Belgrade Municipal Code 2009 Three Forks Municipal Code updated September 2018 West Yellowstone Municipal Code updated September 2018 City of Bozeman Drought Management Plan January 2017 Gallatin County Hazardous Materials Plan April 2009 Gallatin County Emergency Management Plan January 2017 Gallatin Triangle Planning Study September 2014 Greater Bozeman Area Transportation Plan (2007 Update) 2007 Bozeman Transportation Master Plan April 2017 Belgrade to Bozeman Corridor , Frontage Road Study May 2017 City of Bozeman Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resiliency S April 2019 The Gallatin County HMP is a living, expandable document that can have new information added and changes made as needed. The plan’s purpose is to improve disaster resistance through projects and programs, and therefore, opportunities for changes and public involvement will exist as disasters occur and mitigation continues. Details on the plan’s maintenance and continued public involvement are further outlined in Section 6.0 – Plan Maintenance. 2 -6 2.3 RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES A key step in preventing disaster losses in Gallatin County and the incorporated jurisdictions is developing a comprehensive understanding of the hazards that pose risks to the communities. The following terms [F EMA, 2001] can be found throughout this plan: / Hazard: A source of danger / Risk: Probability of loss or injury / Vulnerability: Open to attack or damage This all-hazard risk assessment and mitigation strategy serves as an initial source of hazard information for those in Gallatin County. Other plans may be referenced and remain vital hazard documents, but each hazard has its own profile in this plan. As more data become available and disasters occur, the individual hazard profiles and mitigation strategies can be expanded, or new hazards added. This risk assessment identifies and describes the hazards that threaten the communities and determines the values at risk from those hazards. The risk assessment is the cornerstone of the mitigation strategy and provides the basis for many of the mitigation goals, objectives, and potential projects. The assets and community inventory section include s elements such as critical facilities, critical infrastructure, population, structures, economic values, ecologic values, historic values, social values, current land uses, new development, and future development potential. The list of critical facilities and infrastructure included in the previous HMP were reviewed and updated to reflect current locations and status of these assets. Individual hazard profiles allow for comprehensive analysis of each hazard from many different aspects. Each hazard profile contains a description of the hazard containing information from specific hazard experts and a record of the hazard history compiled from a wide variety of databases and sources . Using local historical occurrence, or more specific documentation if available, a probability was determined. In most cases, the number of years recorded was divided by the number of occurrences, resulting in a simple past-determined recurrence interval. If the hazard lacked a definitive historical record, the probability was assessed qualitatively based on regional history or other contributing factors. The magnitude or extent of the hazard describes a realistic approximation of the worst-case scenario. This qualitative approximation is based on past occurrences in the county or in nea rby counties. If the past occurrence was not an accurate representation, general knowledge of the hazard was used to approximate the types of impacts that are expected from a low-frequency, high-magnitude event. Mapping of the hazards, where spatial differences exist, allows for hazard analyses by geographic location. Some hazards, such as riverine flooding, can have varying levels of risk based on location (i.e., near the river versus far away from the river). Other hazards, such as winter storms or drought, cover larger geographic areas and delineation of hazard areas is not typically available or useful on the county scale. Critical facilities were mapped using data prov ided by Gallatin County. The mapping of the facilities allowed for the comparison of building locations to the hazard areas where such hazards are spatially recognized. Base maps depicting the critical facility locations were compared to available hazard layers to show the proximity of the facilities to the hazard areas. Given the nature of critical facilities, the functional losses and costs for alternate arrangements typically extend beyond structural and contents losses. These types of losses can be inferred based on the use and function of the facility. 2 -7 Critical infrastructure for services such as electricity, heating fuels, telephone, water, sewer, and transportation systems was assessed in a narrative format using history and a general understanding of such systems to determine what infrastructure losses may occur. Basic mapping exists of the road networks in the county. These layers were additionally compared to the hazard areas. Most of the other types of infrastructure do not have digital mapping or were withheld by the managing company for security reasons. Structures were mapped and analyzed in a similar manner to critical facilities. Data showing the locations of most structures countywide was provided by Madison and Gallatin counties. This GIS mapping allowed for comparison of building locations to the mapped hazard areas. Using this technique, an approximate number of structures in the various hazard areas can be determined. The value of structures in the hazard areas was determined using Montana Department of Revenue Computer Assisted Mass Appraisal System (CAMA) data that contains the taxable building value of each parcel in the county. The structure points provided by the counties were matched with the closest taxable building values. For some hazards, the total dollar exposure was multiplied by a damage factor since many hazard events will not result in a complete loss of all structures. These estimates are general in nature, and therefore, should only be used for planning purposes. The approxi mations, however, are based on current hazard and exposure data. HAZUS-MH 4.2, a loss estimation software program developed by FEM A, approximated losses to structures from earthquakes and floods. Where GIS mapping was unavailable or not useful, estimations and plausible scenarios were used to quantify potential structure losses. Population impacts were qualitatively assessed based on the number of structures estimated to be in the hazard area. Given 49,444 housing units and a population of 107,810, both based on 2017 U.S. Census data (U.S. Census, 2017), an estimate of 2.2 people per structure was derived. Depending on the time of year, population concentrations are likely much greater due to non -resident populations. Other factors used in evaluati ng the population impacts include d the ability of people to escape from the incident without casualty and the degree of warning that could be expected for the event. In general, the loss of life and possible injuries are difficult to determine and depend o n the time of day, day of the week, time of year, extent of the damage, and other hazard specific conditions. Qualitative methodologies, such as comparisons to previous disasters, occurrences in nearby communities, and plausible scenarios, helped determine the potential losses to economic, ecologic, historic, and social values. In many cases, a dollar figure cannot be placed on values, particularly those that cannot be replaced. Therefore, these types of losses were quantified through narrative des criptions and provide some background on what may occur during a disaster. The assessment on the impact to future development is based on the mechanisms currently in place to limit or regulate development in hazardous areas. Some hazards can be mitigated during development, others cannot. The impacts were assessed through a narrative on how future development could be impacted by the hazard based on current regulations. Many unknown variables limit the ability to quantitatively assess all aspects of a hazard with high accuracy. Therefore, data limitations provide a framework for identifying the missing or variable information. These limitations were determined by hazard through the risk assessment process. In some cases, the limitations may be resolved thr ough research or data collection. If a limitation can be reasonably resolved 2 -8 through a mitigation project, the resolution is included as a potential action in the mitigation strategy. Other factors were determined based on an evaluation of past events and a general understanding of the hazard characteristics. This basic listing of secondary hazards provides a link between the hazard profiles and identifies additional hazards that may compound the impacts of the primary event (i.e. , poor air quality because of smoke during a wildland fire). At the end of the risk assessment, the summary brings together data from each of the hazards to show comparisons and ultimately rank the hazards by jurisdiction. The overall hazard rating is determined using qualitative r ankings of the probability of future occurrences and likely impacts when compared to other hazards. Due to the inherent errors possible in any disaster risk assessment, the results of the risk assessment should only be used for planning purposes and in de veloping projects to mitigate potential losses. Photos courtesy Gallatin County Emergency Management. 3 -1 3.0 RISK ASSESSMENT AND COMMUNITY INVENTORY This hazard risk assessment serves as a single source for hazard information in Gallatin County. Other plans may be referenced and remain vital hazard documents, but each hazard has its own profile in this plan. As more data becomes available and disasters occur, the individual hazard profiles can be updated, or new hazards can be added. This summary of hazards identifies and describes the hazards that threaten Gallatin County, including Belgrade, Big Sky, Bozeman, Manhattan, Three Forks and West Yellowstone, and determines the values at risk from those hazards. The risk assessment is the cornerstone of the mitigation strategy and provides the basis for many of the proposed actions. 3.1 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION Gallatin County is exposed to many hazards. The hazards were identified and profiled through several different means. Hazards were initially identified by participants in the first round of public meeting s . Participants represented governmental agencies , private sector interests , and the general public . Subse quently , a history of past events was compiled, and possible future events were recognized through internet research, available GIS data, archives research, public meetings, subject matter experts, and an examination of existing plans. The identified hazards were validated and ranked at public meetings held in February 2018. As might be expected, many of the hazard types were common to each community district; however, several hazards were either unique to a district, or were not common to all five districts. MSU completed their own hazard identification and ranking process, the results of which can be found in Annex A. Overall, 19 major hazards with respect to risk and vulnerabilities were selected for assessment at a countywide -level. T he 2012 Gallatin County HMP identified 16 hazard descriptions. A summary of the changes in countywide hazard identification includes: / The 2012 HMP included a single hazard for Civil Unrest , Terrorism , and Violence ; whereas this 2018 update broke out each of these topics into separate hazards. / The 2012 HMP included separate c ategories for different, seasonal weather hazards under the titles of Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes and Winter Storms and Extreme Cold . This 2018 update combined weather hazards into a single title – Severe Weather . / The 2012 HMP included a Utility Outage hazard. T his 2018 update changed the title of that hazard to Critical Infrastructure Disruption , with the intention of capturing not only interruptions to traditional utility networks (electrical, natural gas, petroleum, water and wastewater), but also the more recently developed cybernetworks (Internet, WiFi) and mobile communication systems (cellular phone networks, satellite -based communication). / Two new hazards were identified for inclusion in the 2018 HMP update: Environmental Hazards which includes air and water quality, and Urban Conflagration which includes large -scale, rapid fire development in urban settings resulting from an explosion, structure fire, or wildfire event due to lighter weight building materials and newer construction methods. The hazards (in alphabetical order) are listed in Table 3-1 . The jurisdictions a ffected, and brief descriptors of how and why the hazard was identified, are provided in this table. The level of detail for each hazard is based on the relative risk to the effected communities and is limited by the amount of data available. 3 -2 Table 3-1. Gallatin County Hazards Hazard Jurisdiction How Identified Why Identified Avalanche and Landslide / Gallatin County / State DES Website / Historical records from the avalanche.org database / Colorado Avalanche Info. Center / Montana Hazard/Vulnerability Analysis (1989) / USGS National Landslide Study / Montana Department of Transportation District 2 Priorities / Public meeting input / 2018 HAZUS -MH study / Potential for landslides and avalanches due to varied terrain / History of fatal avalanches / 2005 HAZUS study identified areas of significant landslide risk Aviation Accident / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Federal Aviation Administration / National Transportation Safety Board / Potential for mass casualty incident / Increased aircraft traffic at Bozeman -Yellowstone International Airport Civil Unrest / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / State Dept. of Justice website / Public meeting input / Potential for organized demonstrations and protests to cause significant disruptions to daily activities Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website / Public meeting input / Local Health Department / Large number of livestock areas / History of an influenza outbreak / The area is highly traveled by tourists / Rapid disease spread potential through urban areas Critical Infrastructure Disruption / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Public meeting input / Subject matter experts / Dependence of population on utility services Dam Failure / Gallatin County / Belgrade, Three Forks / National Inventory of Dams website / Dam Emergency Action Plans / Several high hazard dams and several significant hazard dams exist in the county Drought / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Montana Drought Advisory / National Drought Mitigation / Data from the Western Regional Climate Center / NOAA Paleoclimatology / Frequent historical drought events / USDA Disaster Declarations / Importance of agriculture to the local economy Earthquake / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology / US Geological Survey / 2018 HAZUS -MH Study / History of nearby earthquakes greater than 6.0 magnitude / Proximity to the active geological region of Yellowstone National Park / Numerous active faults in and adjacent to Gallatin County / 2018 HAZUS -MH scenarios defined a significant hazard 3 -3 Hazard Jurisdiction How Identified Why Identified Environmental Hazards / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Montana Dept. of Environmental Quality / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency / Public meeting input / Recent increases in air quality impacts due to wildfires / Surface and groundwater contamination potential Flooding / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / FEMA; Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) / US Army Corp of Engineers / GCEM / History of flooding / Large areas of identified floodplain in developed areas Ground Transportation Accident / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / National Transportation Safety Board / Montana Highway Patrol / Federal Railroad Administration / Montana Department of Transportation / Heavily traveled Interstate 90 and Highway 191 traverse the county / History of small transportation accidents / Potential for larger transportation accidents causing mass casualties Hazardous Materials Release / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Gallatin County Hazardous Material Plan / Environmental Protection Agency / US Department of Transportation Emergency Response Handbook / Fixed facilities exist in the county that house hazardous materials / Regular highway and railroad traffic transport of hazardous materials / History of hazardous material releases Railroad Accident / Gallatin County / Belgrade. Bozeman, Manhattan, and Three Forks / Montana Rail Link flow study / Public meeting input / U.S. Dept. of Transportation / Significant rail traffic through county with potentially hazardous cargo Severe Weather / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / National Climatic Data Center database / National Weather Service / Storm Prediction Center / History of severe weather events, including damages Terrorism / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco & Firearms / Federal Bureau of Investigation / Gallatin Co. Emergency Operations Plan / Southern Poverty Law Center website / Anti -Defamation League website / Heightened alert since September 11, 2001 / Small scale incidents have occurred in Gallatin County / Proximity to Yellowstone National Park and National Forest lands Urban Conflagration / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Local fire departments, districts and fire service areas / Increased urbanization and development densities combined with lighter weight home construction materials Violence / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Local law enforcement / Public meeting input / Rapid increases in population / Increased drug traffic and general crime within county Volcano / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Yellowstone Volcano Observatory / Montana Disaster and Emergency Services / Proximity to active volcanic caldera / History of ash fall over the county Wildfire / Gallatin County / All Incorporated Cities and Towns / Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation / US Forest Service / Gallatin County Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP) / Local history of wildfire / Numerous areas of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) 3 -4 3.2 ASSETS AND COMMUNITY INVENTORY An important piece of assessing the risk of the communities to the studied hazards is to recognize what assets are more vulnerable to those hazards than others. Identifying the assets in the communities is the first step in assessing the vulnerabilities to those assets. In many cases, once important facilities are identified, they can then be prioritized for mitigation. Examples of community assets include the population, critical facilities, government (publicly owned) facilities, businesses, residences, s tructures housing vulnerable populations, road and utility infrastructure, natural resources, and the economy. The most important facilities typically protect the continuity of government, the safety of the population, or the economy. 3.2.1 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE Critical facilities and infrastructure protect the safety of the population, the continuity of government, or the values of the community. In many cases, critical facilities fulfill important public safety, emergency response, and/or disaster recovery functions. In other cases, critical facilities may protect a vulnerable population, such as a school or elder care facility. Examples of critical facilities include: 911 emergency call centers, coordination centers , police and fire stations, public works facilities, sewer and water facilities, hospitals, jails, schools, essential businesses, shelters, and public services buildings. The transportation network is another important infrastructure that relies on bridges and road/rail segments. Utilities such as electricity, natural gas/propane, telephone, water, and sewer rely on established infrastructure to provide services. The providers of these services use a variety of systems to ensure consistent service in the county. Each of these services is important to daily life in Gallatin County and, in some cases, is critical to protecting life and property. CRITICAL FACILITIES Critical facilities were initially identified throughout the planning process for the 2006 and 2012 plans and then reviewed and updated in 2018. These facilities are listed below in Table 3 -2 through Table 3 -10 . Critical facility locations are shown in Figure 3 -1 through Figure 3-8 . Table 3-2. Critical Facilities - Local Government and Law Enforcement Name Address Replacement Value Law & Justice Center 615 S. 16th Bozeman Gallatin County Courthouse 311 West Main Bozeman Bozeman City Hall 121 North Rouse Bozeman Gallatin County Fairgrounds 901 North Black Bozeman Montana State University Police Roy Huffman Building, 7th & Kagy Bozeman $1,492,000 Gallatin County Coordination Center 219 East Tamarack Bozeman Gallatin County Emergency Communications Center 1705 Vaquero Parkway Bozeman Belgrade City Hall 91 E. Central Belgrade $1,600,000 3 -5 Name Address Replacement Value Manhattan City Hall 207 S. 6th St. Manhattan $225,000 Three Forks City Office 206 Main Three Forks West Yellowstone Police 124 Yellowstone Avenue West Yellowstone Table 3-3. Critical Facilities – Fire and Emergency Medical Service (EMS) Stations Name Address Replacement Value Bozeman Fire Department Statio #1 34 N. Rouse Bozeman $646,000 Bozeman Fire Department Statio #2 410 S. 19th Bozeman $263,000 Bozeman Fire Department Statio #3 1705 Vaquero Parkway Bozeman Amsterdam Fire District 7170 Church Hill Rd. Amsterdam $150,000 Bridger Canyon Fire District 8081 Bridger Canyon Rd. Bozeman $250,000 Central Valley Fire District #1 215 Wings Way Belg rade $8,000,000 Central Valley Fire District #2 3650 Springhill Rd. Bozeman $750,000 Central Valley Fire District #3 275 Ice Center Lane Bozeman $300,000 Central Valley Fire District #4 13683 Springhill Rd. Belgrade Central Valley Fire District #5 9600 Walker Rd. Belgrade Central Valley Fire District #6 370 Pollywog Lane Belgrade Central Valley Fire District #7 8977 Dry Creek Rd. Belgrade Fort Ellis Fire Service Area 3725 Bozeman Trail Rd. Bozeman $100,000 Gallatin Gateway Fire District 320 Webb Street Gallatin Gateway Hyalite Fire Department #1 4541 S. 3rd Rd. Bozeman Hyalite Fire Department #2 10200 Cottonwood Rd. Bozeman Hyalite Fire Department #3 5400 Gooch Hill Rd. Bozeman Manhattan Fire District 222 E. Main St. Manhattan 3 -6 Name Address Replacement Value Three Forks Fire District 13 E. Date St. Three Forks $100,000 Hebgen Basin Rural Fire District 10 S. Faithful Street West Yellowstone Willow Creek Fire District 107 Main Willow Creek $90,000 Big Sky Fire Station #1 650 Rainbow Trout Run Big Sky Big Sky Fire Station #2 460 Lone Mountain Trail Big Sky $500,000 Gallatin River Ranch Fire District Equestrian Center Loop Manhattan $130,000 Bozeman -Yellowstone Internationa Airport Fire Station 780 Gallatin Field Rd. Belgrade $156,000 Clarkston Fire Service Area 12455 Clarkston Rd. Three Forks $100,000 Table 3-4. Critical Facilities - Hospitals and Clinics Name Address Replacement Value Bozeman Health Deaconess Hos 905 – 931 Highland Blvd. Bozeman $20,400,000 Bozeman Health Belgrade Clinic 206 Alaska Frontage Rd . Belgrade Bozeman Health Big Sky Medical Center 334 Town Center Avenue Big Sky Bozeman Health Big Sky Mounta Clinic 100 Beaverhead Trail Big Sky $3,000,000 Bozeman Health Outpatient Serv 120 N. 19th Suite D Bozeman $506,000 Bozeman Health Urgent Care 1006 W. Main St. Bozeman $912,000 Gallatin Community Clinic 214 E. Mendenhall Bozeman $376,000 Gallatin County Health Departme 215 W . Mendenhall Bozeman Kurtz, Curt MD 8707 Jackrabbit Rd. Belgrade $954,000 Three Rivers Clinic 16 Railway Ave. Three Forks Allergy and Asthma Consultants 1188 N. 15th Ave. S uite 3 Bozeman $724,000 3 -7 Name Address Replacement Value Belgrade Clinic PLLP 33 W. Main St. Belgrade $1,400,000 Belgrade Urgent Care 403 W. Main St. Belgrade $340,000 Manhattan Medical Services 207 S. 6th St. Manhattan $79,000 Nature’s Wisdom 9202 River Rd. Bozeman $104,000 Bridger Mountain Physical Thera 851 Bridger Dr. Bozeman Kreitzburg, Susan 2100 Fairway Dr. S uite 102 Bozeman $207,000 Bridger Eye Center and Optical 113 E. Oak St. #2C Bozeman $828,000 Rocky Mountain Natural Health 702 N. 19th Ave. Bozeman $737,000 Bozeman Medical Arts Center 300 N. Willson Ave. Bozeman $1,474,000 Gallatin Mental Health Center 699 Farmhouse Ln. Bozeman $267,000 Gallatin Valley Natural Medicine 2022 N. 22nd Ave. #2 Bozeman $222,000 Family Dermatology Center 2409 W Main St. #1 Bozeman $812,000 Alcohol and Drug Services of Ga County 2310 N 7th Ave. Ste. A Bozeman $2,019,000 Montana Skin Cancer and Dermatology Center 1727 W College St. Bozeman $289,000 Hapcic, Karl MD 1125 W. Kagy Blvd. #201 Bozeman $182,000 Bridger Orthopedic 1450 Ellis St. #201 Bozeman $700,000 Bridger Orthopedic West 3400 Laramie Dr. Bozeman Swingle Health Center MSU -Bozeman $3,681,000 Yellowstone Family Medical 11 S. Electric West Yellowstone $500,000 Alpine Physicians Health Center 613 Lamme St. Bozeman Bridger Creek Family Health 316 E. Babcock St. , Bozeman 3 -8 Table 3-5. Critical Facilities - Transportation Name Address Replacement Value Bozeman -Yellowstone Internation Airport 850 Gallatin Field Rd. Belgrade Yellowstone Airport 625 Yellowstone Airport Rd. West Yellowstone Pogreba Field 1680 Airport Rd. Three Forks Montana Rail Link 99 Northern Pacific Rd. Belgrade Jefferson Lines 1500 N. 7th Bozeman Buffalo Bus Lines Inc . 415 Yellowstone West Yellowstone Karst Stage 511 N. Wallace Bozeman First Student Inc. 3425 N. 27th Ave. Bozeman Belgrade School District No. 44, Transportation 17063 Frontage Road Belgrade Harlow’s Plus Services 1085 Yadon Road Manhattan Three Forks Public Schools 210 E. Neal Street Three Forks Big Sky School District No. 72 45465 Gallatin Road Big Sky West Yellowstone Schools 411 N. Geyser West Yellowstone Table 3-6. Critical Facilities - State Government Name Address Replacement Value Montana Highway Patrol 39 Gold Miner Lane, Suite B Belgrade Montana National Guard 350 Airport Rd. Belgrade Fish, Wildlife and Parks , Region 3 1400 S. 19th Ave. Bozeman Montana Dep t. of Transportation 100 Nelson Road Bozeman Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation 2273 Boothill Court Bozeman 3 -9 Table 3-7. Critical Facilities - Federal Government Name Address Replacement Value US Forest Service, Custer -Gallatin National Forest Supervisor’s Off 10 East Babcock (Federal Build Bozeman US Forest Service, Bozeman Range District & Interagency Dispatch Cent 3710 Fallon St. (Suite C) Bozeman US Forest Service, Hebgen Lak Ranger District 330 Gallatin Rd. West Yellowstone USFS West Yellowstone Interag Fire Center Smokejumper Base 670 Air Cente r Rd. West Yellowstone US Forest Service, Shenango H Gallatin Canyon (N 45.4560 ° N, 111.2432 ° W) Federal Building (GSA) & US Post Office 32 East Babcock Bozeman National Park Service West Yellowstone Visitors Cente 30 Yellowstone Ave. West Yellowstone National Park Service Yellowstone Nat’l Park – W. Entrance Highway 191 Yellowstone National Park US Post Office 5711 E. Baxter Lane Bozeman US Post Office 9 Front St. Three Forks US Post Office 96 N. Weaver Belgrade US Post Office 201 E. Railroad Manhattan US Post Office 4 Rabel lane Gallatin Gateway US Post Office 209 Grizzly Ave. West Yellowstone Table 3-8. Critical Facilities - Assisted Living and Senior Housing Name Address Replacement Value Evergreen Healthcare 321 N. 5th St. Bozeman $1,628,000 Bear Creek Respite Care 1002 E. Kagy Bozeman $139,000 Bozeman Health Hillcrest Senior Living 1201 Highland Blvd. Bozeman $13,777,000 Bozeman Adult Day Center 807 N. Tracy Bozeman $1,000,000 Highgate Senior Living 2219 W. Oak Bozeman $4,892,000 Spring Meadows 3175 Graf St. Bozeman Generations Assisted Living 700 Minnesota Belgrade $201,000 Open Arms Elderly Care 505 Minnesota Bozeman $250,000 3 -10 Name Address Replacement Value Our Home Elderly Care 190 Milestone Dr. Bozeman Century Village 100 Hamilton Ct. Manhattan Pathways Personal Care Home 622 Main Three Forks $124,000 Edgewood Vista Adult Day Care 1011 Cardinal Dr. Belgrade $578,000 Dutch Hearth 991 Pache Rd. Belgrade $146,000 Church Hill Retirement Home 6151 Shady Rest Church Hill $1,500,000 Mercy Manor 5830 Sypes Canyon Rd. Bozeman $234,000 Gallatin Rest Home 1221 W. Durston Bozeman Mountain View Care Center 205 N. Tracy Bozeman $1,939,000 Aspen Pointe at Hillcrest 1201 Highland Blvd. Bozeman High Country Care 8659 Haggerty Ln. Bozeman $169,000 Hyalite Country Care 6040 S. 3rd Rd. Bozeman Hamilton House 9430 Haggerty Ln. Bozeman $132,000 Darlinton Manor 606 N. 5th Ave. Bozeman Legion Villa 1215 W. Durston Bozeman Table 3-9. Critical Facilities - Schools Name Address Replacement Value Manhattan Elementary 416 N. Broadway Manhattan Manhattan High School 416 N. Broadway Manhattan Chief Joseph Middle School 309 N. 11th Bozeman $17,000,000 Meadowlark School 4415 Durston Rd. Bozeman 3 -11 Name Address Replacement Value Emily Dickinson School 2435 Annie St. Bozeman $7,000,000 Hawthorne School 114 N. Rouse Bozeman $5,000,000 Hyalite School 3600 W. Babcock Bozeman Irving School 611 S. 8th Bozeman Longfellow School 516 S. Tracy Bozeman Morning Star School 830 Arnold Bozeman Sacajawea Middle School 3535 S. 3rd Bozeman $12,000,000 Whittier School 511 N. 5th Bozeman $5,000,000 Bozeman High School 205 N. 11th Bozeman $44,000,000 Gallatin High School (under construction - to open in 2020 Flanders Mill Rd. & Oak St. Bozeman $100,000,000 Willow Creek High School 407 Main St. Willow Creek $2,500,000 Springhill School 602 Springhill Community Rd. Belgrade $121,000 Cottonwood School 13233 Cottonwood School Bozeman Three Forks Elementary 212 E. Neal Three Forks Three Forks High School 210 E. Neal Three Forks $12,000,000 Pass Creek School 3747 Pass Creek Rd. Belgrade Monforton School 6001 Monforton School Rd. Bozeman Gallatin Gateway School 100 Mill St. Gallatin Gateway Anderson School 10040 Cottonwood Rd. Bozeman $23,000 LaMotte School 841 Bear Canyon Rd. Bozeman 3 -12 Name Address Replacement Value Martha Fox Heck School 308 N. Broadway Belgrade $3,000,000 Quaw Elementary 91 Southview Ave. Belgrade $4,000,000 Ridge View Elementary 117 Green Belt Dr. Belgrade $3,500,000 Belgrade Middle School 400 Triple Crown Rd. Belgrade $3,000,000 Belgrade High School 303 N. Hoffman Belgrade $20,000,000 Malmborg School 375 Jackson Creek Rd. Bozeman West Yellowstone Elementary 500 Delacy West Yellowstone $4,500,000 West Yellowstone High School 500 Delacy West Yellowstone Ophir School 45465 Gallatin Rd. Big Sky Lone Peak High School 45465 Gallatin Rd. Big Sky Amsterdam School 6360 Camp Creek Rd. Manhattan $700,000 Mount Ellis Academy 3641 Bozeman Trail Rd. Bozeman Manhattan Christian 8000 Churchill Rd. Manhattan Headwaters Academy 418 W. Garfield Bozeman Heritage Christian 4310 Durston Bozeman Gallatin -Madison Cooperative 21000 Frontage Rd. Belgrade Bozeman Christian School 1935 Nelson Rd. Bozeman $180,000 Great Beginnings Montessori 5860 Springhill Rd. Bozeman Sourdough Montessori School 4310 Sourdough Rd. Bozeman $127,000 Cottonwood Day School 10180 Cottonwood Rd. Bozeman 3 -13 Name Address Replacement Value Greenwood Academy 2015 Wheat Dr. Bozeman Learning Circle Montessori 516 W. Cleveland Summit School 3001 W. Villard Bozeman $450,000 Bridger Alternative School 205 N. 11th Bozeman Highland Montessori 111 Highland Blvd. Bozeman World Family School 115 E. Dickerson Bozeman Petra Academy 4720 Classical Way Bozeman Bozeman Montessori 3774 Equestrian Lane Bozeman Middle Creek Montessori 1572 Cobb Hill Rd. Bozeman Renaissance Montessori 428 N. 11th Ave. Bozeman Secret Garden Montessori 900 Cobb Hill Rd. Bozeman Yellowstone Montessori 1705 W. Kagy Blvd. Bozeman Table 3-10. Critical Facilities - Child Care, Day Care and Preschools Name Address Replacement Value Ark Child Care Center 403 W. Central Belgrade Little Lambs Child Development Center 308 Al Drive Belgrade Building Blocks Academy 301 S. 19th Bozeman Children’s Development Center 804 S. Willson Bozeman Montessori Children’s House 1450 W. Kagy Bozeman Great Beginnings Montessori 5860 Springhill Rd. Bozeman Greenwood Academy 2015 Wheat Dr. Bozeman Head Start 32 S. Tracy Bozeman Highland Montessori 111 Highland Blvd. Bozeman Learning Circle 516 W. Cleveland Bozeman 3 -14 Name Address Replacement Value Little People’s Academy 1612 W. Babcock Bozeman Methodist Preschool 121 S. Willson Bozeman Heritage Christian Preschool 4310 Durston Rd. Bozeman Montana Kids 1105 Campbell Rd. Bozeman MSU Child Development Center Herrick Hall Bozeman Pilgrim Preschool 2118 S. 3rd Bozeman Sourdough Montessori 4310 Sourdough Rd. Bozeman Southwood Child Care 1805 S. Tracy Bozeman Sunshine Day Care 1805 S. Tracy Bozeman Teddy Bear Express 411 Arnold Bozeman Almost Home Child Care 1440 Bobcat Dr. Bozeman Little Geysers Child Care 603 Yellowstone Ave. West Yellowstone New Gallatin High School (Bozeman) under construction, June 2019. Photo courtesy M. Rotar 3 -15 Figure 3-1. Critical Facilities Overview 3 -16 Figure 3-2. Belgrade Critical Facilities 3 -17 Figure 3-3. Big Sky Critical Facilities 3 -18 Figure 3-4. Bozeman Critical Facilities Montana State University 3 -19 Figure 3-5. Four Corners Critical Facilities 3 -20 Figure 3-6. Manhattan Critical Facilities 3 -21 Figure 3-7. Three Forks Critical Facilities 3 -22 Figure 3-8. West Yellowstone Critical Facilities 3 -23 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Critical facilities were initially identified throughout the planning process for the 2006 and 2012 plans and then reviewed and updated in 2018. A list of critical infrastructure in Gallatin County is included in Table 3 -11 , with more detail provided in the sections below. Table 3-11. Critical Facilities - Utility and Infrastructure Services Name Address Replacement Value Northwestern Energy (local office) 121 E. Griffin Dr. Bozeman Northwestern Energy (substatio City of Bozeman Water Reclam Facilit y Northwestern Energy (substatio Bohart Ln . – Bozeman Northwestern Energy (substation) Quinn Creek Rd. – Bozeman Pass Northwestern Energy (substatio South Church Rd. - Bozeman Northwestern Energy (substatio College & 11th Ave. – Bozeman Northwestern Energy (substatio Patterson Road - Bozeman Northwestern Energy (substatio Flanders Mill Rd. – Bozeman Northwestern Energy ( substation ) Four Corners Northwestern Energy ( substation ) Belgrade Northwestern Energy ( substation ) Three Fork s Northwestern Energy (substatio Trident Northwestern Energy ( substation ) Big Sky Northwestern Energy Natural Gas Transmission Line (refer to Figure 3-9) Fall River Rural Electric (substation) West Yellowstone Fall River Rural Electric (substation) 1.3 miles west of W. Yellowstone Fall River Rural Electric (substation) Romsett Fall River Rural Electric (substation) North side of Hebgen Lake ExxonMobil Bozeman Terminal 220 W. Griffin Drive Bozeman Phillips66 Bozeman Products Te 318 W. Griffin Drive Bozeman CHS (Cenex) Logan Petroleum Term Logan Yellowstone Pipeline Company (refer to Figure 3-9) 3 -24 Name Address Replacement Value Energy West - Montana (West Yellowstone natural gas s 145 N. Geyser St. West Yellowstone Century Link 2707 W. Main St. Bozeman 3 Rivers Communications 12 Skywood Rd. Big Sky Gallatin County Landfill 10585 2 Dog Rd. Logan Bozeman Vehicle Maintenance 1812 N. Rouse Bozeman $1,400,000 Gallatin County Road Departme 205 W. Baxter Lane Four Corners Bozeman Wa ter Reclamation Facilit 2245 Springhill Rd. Bozeman Bozeman Water Treatment Plan 7022 Sourdough Canyon Rd. Bozeman Bozeman Lyman Water Treatme Story Mill Rd. Bozeman Bozeman Hilltop Water Tank an Communications Site Kenyon Dr. Bozeman Bozeman Sourdough Road Res (buried concrete tank) Sourdough Rd. Bozeman Riverside Water & Sewer Dist . No. 310 (north of Bozeman/Riverside CC Bozeman RAE Water & Sewer District (west of Bozeman) 10 Rae Water Ln. Bozeman Four Corners Water & Sewer Distri No. 385 (Four Corners area) 495 Quail Run Rd. Bozeman Gallatin Gateway County Water Sewer District Gallatin Gateway Valley Grove Water & Sewer Dis No. 373 (northwest of Bozeman 299 Willow Blvd. Bozeman Belgrade Public Works 91 E. Central Ave. Belgrade River Rock County Water & Sew District No. 377 (west of Belgrade 265 N. River Rock Belgrade Manhattan Public Works 107 S. 7th St. Manhattan Amsterdam/Churchill County Se District No. 307 7200 Churchill Rd. Manhattan Three Forks City Shop 306 Railway Ave. Three Forks $5,000,000 Willow Creek Sewer District No. Willow Creek Big Sky County Water & Sewer District No. 363 561 Little Coyote Rd. Big Sky West Yellowstone Public Works 314 Yellowstone Ave. West Yellowstone $350,000 Hebgen Lake Estates County W Sewer District (Horse Butte area) West Yellowstone Yellowstone Holiday Water & Se District No. 348 (N side of Hebgen L West Yellowstone 3 -25 Figure 3-9. Major Natural Gas and Petroleum Pipeline Routes (from N2ational Pipeline Mapping System, www.npms.phmsa.dot.gov ) Electricity Electricity provides power for lights, computers, medical equipment, water pumps, electric heating systems, refrigerators, freezers, televisions, and many other types of equipment. Northwestern Energy, headquartered in Sioux Falls, South Dakota , provides electricity to a large portion of Gallatin County. Fall River Rural Electric Cooperative provides electric service to the southern portion of Gallatin County , in the Hebgen Lake and West Yellowstone areas . Much of the electric service is run thr ough overhead lines . These lines are supported by poles and have key components such as transformers and substations. Natural Gas During the cold winter months, the heating of homes and businesses is a necessity. The primary heating fuel used in Gallatin County is natural gas , with liquid propane (LP) gas also widely used in rural areas of the county. Overall, several types of fuels are used for heating purposes as shown in Table 3-12 . Most systems ultimately require electricity to run their thermostats and blowers. Natural gas in portions of Gallatin County is provided by NorthWestern Energy through underground pipeline infrastructure (see Figure 3-9 ). Energy West provides natural gas service in West Yellowstone. Buildings heated with propane typically have a nearby tank that is refilled regularly by a local vendor. The vendor uses a truck to transport the propane to the users. Therefore, the vendors rely on accessibility to the communities and rural residents via the road network. Should any areas become isolated due to poor road conditions, the vendor may not be able to access the tanks to refill them. 3 -26 Table 3-12. Home Heating Fuel [US Census, 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS), 2018b] Natural Gas Bottled, Tank, or LP Gas Electricity Coal or Coke Wood Solar Energy Other Fuel No Fuel Used Gallatin County (Total) 23,520 2,847 11,197 0 2,399 55 403 170 Big Sky Community 111 232 471 0 187 15 13 0 City of Belgrade 1,755 45 940 0 208 0 78 0 City of Bozeman 11,023 193 6,324 0 326 10 106 113 Gallatin Gateway Commu 118 49 120 0 75 0 3 0 Town of Manhattan 449 4 74 0 58 0 7 0 City of Three Forks 624 4 127 0 77 0 0 0 Town of West Yellowstone 162 72 333 0 35 0 0 0 Telephone Local telephone services in the county are provided by Century Link (Gallatin Valley and West Yellowstone), and 3 Rivers Communications (Big Sky area) . Similar to electric infrastructure, telephone can be run through overhead or underground lines. Much of the telephone infrastructure in Gallatin County lies within the road right s-of-way. Water and Sewer Municipal water and sewer systems exist within the incorporated communities in the county. Several unincorporated communities, such as Big Sky, Four Corners and Gallatin Gateway, as well as a few residential subdivisions, have local water or sewer districts (or both) . The water systems typically consist of groundwater wells or pumps from a body of water. The sewer systems generally have treatment plants and/or lagoons. Both water and sewer use underground pipe s to service customers. County residents living outside of municipal systems or local water and sewer districts rely on individual well and septic systems. Transportation Transportation infrastructure within Gallatin County includes road, rail, and air ne tworks. The primary road transportation routes in Gallatin County are: Interstate 90; US Highway s 20, 191, and 287; and Montana Highways 2, 64, 84, 85, and 86. Gallatin County has an estimated 1,250 miles of county road s. Montana Rail Link operates two r ailroad lines through the county . A main line runs through the northern section of Gallatin County and connects to Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan , and Logan. A second railroad branches from the main line at Logan and runs through Three Forks before connectin g to various jurisdictions in Madison County. The railroad transports goods and raw materials along both lines. Bozeman-Yellowstone International Airport (BZN), located in Belgrade, operates within Gallatin County. It is the busiest airport in the State of Montana, and a full-service commercial airport with both domestic and international flights. Additionally, Gallatin County has two small er airports - West Yellowstone Airport (WYS) which has seasonal commercial traffic as well as private aircraft . WYS also houses the West Yellowstone Interagency Fire Center which is operated by the U.S. Forest Service. Pogreba Field (9S5), located in Three Forks, is a general aviation facility serving private, chart er, and/or government aircraft . 3 -27 3.3 POPULATION AND STRUCTURES Citizens, visitors, and their property are all at risk from various disasters. Protection of life is the top priority in all disasters and incidents. Population statistics are listed below in Table 3-13 . Table 3-13. Population Statistics [U.S. Census Bureau, 2018a] Location July 1, 2018 Estimated Population Change Since 2010 Census Gallatin County 111,876 25.0% Big Sky 2,9041 25.8% Belgrade 8,993 21.7% Bozeman 48,532 30.2% Four Corners 4,0511 28.8% Gallatin Gateway 8921 4.2% Manhattan 1,822 19.9% West Yellowstone 1,382 8.7% Three Forks 2,053 9.8% 1 Sourced from US Census, American Community Survey (ACS) data for census - designated place (CDP), 2013-2017, 5-year estimate Aerial view of downtown Bozeman and Montana State University, May 2019. Photo courtesy M. Rotar. 3 -28 Like critical facilities, structures such as r esidences are also vulnerable to hazards. Error! Not a valid bookmark self -reference. and Table 3-15 detail selected Gallatin County housing statistics . Table 3-14. Housing Statistics [US Census, 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS), 2018b] Number of Housing Uni Number of Mobile Home Number of Occupied Housing Units Lacking Complete Plumbing Facilities Number of Occupied Housing Units Lacking Complete Kitchen Facilities Number of Occupied Housing Units Lacking Telephone Servic Gallatin County (Total) 51,011 1 3,698 144 251 943 Big Sky Community 3,651 21 0 0 6 City of Belgrade 3,238 236 0 0 33 City of Bozeman 19,972 678 10 99 359 Gallatin Gateway Comm 426 121 11 11 0 Town of Manhattan 653 67 0 10 3 City of Three Forks 892 2 113 2 0 0 3 Town of West Yellowstone 910 76 9 21 77 1 Sourced from US Census, Quick Facts, Gallatin County, Montana, 2018 estimates. 2 Data provided by City of Three Forks. Table 3-15. Structure Age [US Census, 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS), 2018b] Total Housi Units 2014 or later 2010 to 2013 2000 to 2009 1990 to 1999 1980 to 1989 1970 to 1979 1960 to 1969 1950 to 1959 1940 to 1949 1939 or earlier Gallatin County (Tota 51,011 1 3,906 2,271 12,994 9,006 5,407 6,921 2,680 1,849 819 3,591 Big Sky Community 3,651 20 27 1,638 774 443 587 27 51 33 51 City of Belgrade 3,238 20 0 926 881 351 634 137 127 63 99 City of Bozeman 19,972 404 1,435 5,791 2,936 1,968 2,606 1,394 1,071 386 1,981 Gallatin Gateway Comm. 426 12 32 87 67 55 117 3 5 0 48 Town of Manhattan 653 0 0 40 141 72 115 29 56 43 157 City of Three Forks 892 2 10 3 160 144 99 110 71 17 28 242 Town of West Yellowst 910 56 37 161 98 207 89 80 58 75 49 1 Sourced from US Census, Quick Facts, Gallatin County, Montana, 2018 estimates. 2 Data provided by City of Three Forks. The median home value in Gallatin County is $ 303,700 according to 201 7 U.S. Census estimates , and $362,278 (thru September 2017) according to the Gallatin Association of Realtors . The cost to replace existing structures is listed below in Table 3-16 using both U.S. Census and Montana Dept. of Revenue, Computer -Assisted Mass Appraisal (CAMA) data, as well as FEMA’s HAZUS -MH loss estimation software. Figure 3 -10 shows the locations of structures with values based on the closest CAMA parcel with a building value greater than $0. Table 3-16. Structure Value [US Census, 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS), 2018b] Census Estimated Median Value CAMA Estimated Average Value HAZUS-MH Residentia Building Total Replacement Value Gallatin County $303,700 $345,920 $7,641,663,000 Big Sky Community $397,900 $660,260 $340,755,000 City of Belgrade $209,700 $278,120 $428,268,000 City of Bozeman $310,800 $454,730 $2,926,557,000 Gallatin Gateway Community $343,900 $466,250 $95,429,000 Town of Manhattan $224,800 $280,760 $135,709,000 City of Three Forks $186,000 $125,670 $112,546,000 Town of West Yellowstone $243,200 $397,300 $181,602,000 3 -29 Figure 3-10. Structure Locations 3 -30 3.4 ECONOMIC, ECOLOGIC, HISTORIC, AND SOCIAL VALUES Gallatin County is characterized by its abundance of natural resources and beauty, in addition to its strong economic development and growth within recent years. Disasters of any magnitude can threaten the fragile economies and well-being of residents. Basic economic statistics collected from U.S. Census data include : / Median household income [US Census , 2013-2017 ACS , 20 18b]: $59 ,3 97 / Persons below poverty [US Census, 2013-2017 ACS, 2018b]: 13.0% / Percent unemployed [US Census , 2013-2017 ACS, 2018b]: 4 .3% The largest private employment sectors in the county according to U.S. Census data include (by number of persons employed) [US Census, 2013-2017 ACS, 2018b]: / Accommodation & food services , entertainment, and recreation: 7,359 / Retail trade: 7,113 / Professional, scientific, and technical services: 6,390 / Construction: 5,854 / Health care and social assistance: 5,822 Based on data from the USDA Census of Agriculture in 2012, the following agricultural statistics were determined [USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2012 ]: / Number of farms: 1,163 / Acres of farmland: 702,713 acres / Total market value of agricultural products sold: $105,970,000 » Livestock and poultry sales: $47,168,000 » Crop sales: $58,802,000 / Number of cattle and calves: 50,089 / Number of sheep and lambs: 18,098 Historic values represent a point in time. Historic values can include sites, buildings, documents, and other pieces that preserve times past and have value to people. Gallatin County has 106 properties and districts listed o n the National Register of Historic Places [National Park Service (NPS), 2018], including the National Historic Landmark at Three Forks of the Missouri, designated in 1960 to recognize where the Lewis & Clark Expedition camped in 1805 . Social values often cannot be quantified but are an important aspect of quality of life and interpersonal relationships. Examples of social values in Gallatin County may include gatherings to promote community building, personal achievement, freedom from tyranny, the ability to communicate with others, pride in making the world a better place, and friendships. The realm of social values is only limited by the human imagination and usually relates to how a person feels. Disasters, both natural and human-caused, can disrupt important social activities and sometimes have lasting effec ts on society. 3.5 CURRENT LAND USE G allatin C ounty has varied land use, with nearly half of land under public ownership by the USDA Forest Service, State of Montana, Bureau of Land Management or the National Park Service. Both urban and rural communities are present, with individual residences and farms interspersed. Growth is occurring throughout the county. Figure 3 -11 shows federal, state, and local government ownership in the county. 3 -31 Figure 3-11. Gallatin County Land Ownership 3 -32 3.6 NEW AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT According to U.S. Census data, Gallatin County experienced a 32 percent increase in population between 2000 and 2010; from 2010 to 2017 , the population of the county was estimated to have increased by 20.4 percent [U.S. Census Bureau, 2018a]. The rapid increase in population has been associated with an increase in development. Often, smart development is an inexpensive and effective way to reduce the impact of future disasters on the community. The following mechanisms are used by the jurisdictions to guide future development. 3.6.1 GROWTH POLICIES Gallatin County and the incorporated jurisdictions all have growth policies, as required by state law. The growth policies do not have regulatory authority but guide community development regulations and ultimately replace comprehensive plans. The Gallatin County Growth Policy applies to the parts of Gallatin County that are not within the jurisdictions of the City of Bozeman, City of Belgrade, City of Three Forks , Town o f Manhattan, or Town of West Yellowstone. • Gallatin County Growth Policy, April 15, 2003 • City of Belgrade Growth Policy, January 2020 • City of Bozeman Growth Policy, June 1, 2009 • City of Three Forks • Town of West Yellowstone, 2017 GALLATIN COUNTY GROWTH POLICY The Gallatin County Growth Policy was adopted in April 2003 as the document intended to help guide future growth and land development in the county. This document is currently being updated with an expected completion date in 2021. It is the community’s hope, and the County’s commitment, that growth occur in a coordinated, logical, and cost-effective manner that minimizes unplanned, costly sprawl. The growth policy is used to guide land use decisions, and decisions relative to the provision of public facilities and services as well as the conservation and protection of environmentally sensitive lands. In s ection 3.14, Goal 1 of the plan is to protect human life and property from natural hazards, and includes the following objectives: / Encourage development in natural hazard areas to mitigate potential hazard(s). / Encourage development on steep slopes to mitigate potential hazards. » Prohibit development and road building on slopes greater than 25 percent. » Support the use of covenants that provide appropriate engineering to mitigate safety concerns of development in areas with potential and demonstrated unstable slopes and soils. » Encourage development to address emergency services access and driveway standards. / Restrict development in flood hazard areas to protect property and life from flooding. Encourage compliance with the Floodplain Regulations and the standards developed by the Department of Health. » Encourage development to protect neighboring properties and communities from potential flood hazards associated with new development. / Discourage development in areas prone to wildland fire to protect property and life from fires. 3 -33 » Encourage mitigation of fire hazards, including creation of defensible space for each structure, prior to final plat. » Encourage reduction of fire fuel loads. / Encourage development in geologically or seismically unstable areas to mitigate potential hazards. Additionally, the plan supports hazard mitigation through the following goals, objectives, and implementation measures: / Retention of agricultural lands through voluntary conservation easements and land preservation programs / Measures to ensure development are compatible with public safety needs / Conservation of surface and ground water and quality Specific to fire, the polic y emphasizes the provision of a reasonable level of fire protection for residents and property owners through defensible space, consideration of water supplies and response times, fuels mapping, and other programs. CITY OF BOZEMAN COMMUNITY PLAN The City o f Bozeman’s Community Plan (Growth Policy) was adopted in J une 2009. The Plan defines the city’s goals and objectives for growth, provides maps and text that describe the characteristics and features of jurisdictional areas, and presents a timetable for implementing elements within the growth policy. Chapter 13 of the plan discusses the city’s planning efforts for disaster prevention and response, with wildfire listed as one of the natural hazards present in the Bozeman area. The Community Plan is currently being updated with completion anticipated in 20 20. CITY OF BELGRADE GROWTH POLICY The City of Belgrade’s Growth Policy was adopted in 2017. The plan defines the town’s goals and objectives for growth, provides maps and text describing the characteristics and features of the area, and presents a timetable for implementing elements withing the growth policy. The policy’s key identified issues are: Housing Affordability and Availability, Short-Term Commercial Rentals, Developing the 80 Acres, Town Appearanc e , Zoning in Old Town, Economy, and Water and Sewer. TOWN OF WEST YELLOWSTONE GROWTH POLICY The Town of West Yellowstone’s Growth Policy was adopted in 2020. The plan defines the city’s goals and objectives for growth, provides maps and text describing the characteristics and features of the area, and presents a timetable for implementing elements withing the growth policy. The policy’s goals include; Land and Agriculture, Housing, Economics, Local Services, Public Facilities, Natural Resources and Mobility and Circulation. CITY OF THREE FORKS The City of Three Forks has a Growth Policy outline and is currently developing a full policy. The plan defines the city’s goals and objectives for growth, provides maps and text describing the characteristics and features of the area, and presents a timetable for implementing elements withing the growth policy. The policy’s goals include; Adequate Circulation Systems, Commercial Vitality, Industrial Vitality, Planned Residential Development, Public Facilities and Development of Land Outside the City. 3 -34 OTHER LOCAL GROWTH POLICIES Other long-range growth and planning policy and study documents include the Belgrade Growth Policy (2006) and the Gallatin Triangle Planning Study [Sanderson Stewart, 2014], which includes r ecommendations for regional planning cooperation between Gallatin County and the cities of Belgrade and Bozeman. 3.6.2 SUBDIVISION REGULATIONS All s ubdivisions must conform to state and local requirements, specifically the “Gallatin County Subdivision Regulations” in unincorporated areas or the appropriate regulations for the incorporated political subdivision. Purposes of the regulations include the following: / Promote public health, safety, and general welfare by regulating the subdivision of land / Avoid danger or injury by reason of natural hazard or the lack of water, drainage, access, transportation, or other public improvements SUBDIVISION REGULATIONS / Gallatin County Subdivision Regulations, March 5, 2019 / City of Belgrade Subdivision Regulations / City of Bozeman Subdivision Regulations 38.240 / Town of Manhattan Subdivision Regulations Title 1 1 / City of Three Forks Subdivision Regulations Title 12 / Town of West Yellowstone Subdivision Regulations Title 16 Lands considered unsuitable for development include areas of natural and human-caused hazard, floodways, other waterwa ys, and riparian areas. Subdivisions may be required to have covenants to address public health and safety issues such as mowing to reduce wildfires. Emergency access roads may be required and have their own set of standards. Emergency services may provide the governing body with recommendations for the subdivision (e.g., fire protection standards, water supplies, ingress/egress, and defensible space). S ubdivisions that are located within designated 100 -year floodplains (as defined by Section 10 of the Subdivision Regulations), are required to meet certain standards, including: / Land located with the 100 -year floodplain may be used for the following purposes: - Agriculture - Open Space - Wildlife Habitat - Parkland - Recreation / Any proposed lot that includes land within the 100 -year floodplain must contain a designated building site outside of the 100 -year floodplain, within which all new development activity (erection of structures, placement of fill, topographic reconfiguration, etc.) shall take place . - All structures built on such lot shall be designed and constructed so the lowest-floor elevation within the structure is at least two feet above the base (100 -year) flood elevation 4 -35 - The required lowest -floor elevation for each building site shall be recorded on the p lat or other applicable development document (final site plan, Covenants, etc.). / Subdivider shall demonstrate that safe access to the designated building site must be possible during the 100 -year flood. / Subdivisions should be designed to avoid placing subdivision-related infrastructure (roads, bridges, utilities, etc.) within the boundaries of the 100 -year floodplain. Infrastructure that must be located within the 100 -year floodplain shall not adversely affect public health and safety or increase flood hazards. - Bridges constructed inside a subdivision shall be designed so the lowest horizontal chord of the bridge is at least two feet above the base (100-year) flood elevation. Section 10 of the Gallatin County Subdivision Regulations defines the requirements for completing a flood hazard evaluation for property that is located within a designated 100 -year floodplain. The following two paragraphs are the first two sections (A. and B.) within Section 10: General. Land subject to being flooded by a flood of 100-y ear frequency as defined by Title 76, Chapter 5, MCA, or land subject to flooding pursuant to these Regulations, shall not be subdivided for building or residential purposes, or other uses that may increa se or aggravate flood hazards to life, health or welfare, or that may be prohibited by state or local f loodplain or floodway regulations. Land subject to flooding pursuant to these Regulations may include (but is not limited to) land subject to 100 -year flooding, 500-year flooding, shallow flooding, groundwater rise, historically flooded lands, and lands located in proximity to a watercourse. 2008 flooding in Outlaw Subdivision north of Bozeman. Photo courtesy Gallatin County Emergency Management. Intent. The intent of a flood hazard evaluation is to assess possible flooding hazards to a proposed s ubdivision and resulting therefrom. Part of this evaluation must therefore address the uncertainty of pre dicted conditions during significant meteoro logic, geologic or hydrologic events, and the evaluation draws upon known and observed flood behaviors and dynamics for context. The flood maps and associated documentation included within the County-recognized flood studies may contain some of this information but do not address the full range of hazards and flooding conditions necessary for a flood hazard evaluation. 4.0 RISK ASSESSMENT/HAZARD PROFILES In February 2018, public meetings were held in the five community districts to rank identified hazards. Each community district covers one or more population center, which consist of the incorporated cities 4 -2 and towns as well as the unincorporated Big Sky area. Localized hazard rankings were devel oped for Belgrade, Big Sky, Bozeman, Manhattan/Three Forks, and West Yellowstone. Within each community district, i dentified hazards were ranked for their probability of occurrence and the impacts that would result to the population, property, and economy should the hazard occur. The hazard occurrence probability and each of the potential impact categories were assigned numeric values of 1 (Low), 2 (Moderate), or 3 (High). A weighting method was then applied to the hazard impact values by multiplying the p opulation impact value by 3, the property impact value by 2, and the economy impact value by 1. A final risk value is assigned to each hazard by taking the sum of weighted impact values and multiplying by the hazard probability value. Each of the identifi ed hazards includes a table at the end of the hazard profile which summarizes the relative overall risk value , both at the community (district) level and as an aggregate value for the county . The calculated numeric risk value is provided in parentheses following the descriptive risk value (Low, Moderate, High), and the range of risk values for each jurisdiction follows in a second parentheses. 4.1 AVALANCHE AND LANDSLIDE 4.1.1 DESCRIPTION Avalanches and landslides are similar in nature such that both occur when a material on the surface of the earth cannot be supported any longer and gives way to gravity. In the case of an avalanche, the substance is snow, and for a landslide, the substance is mud, rock, or other geologic material. Both can occur rapidly with little warning. When snow accumulations on a slope cannot be supported any longer, the snow support structure may break and fall creating an avalanche. The subsequent rush of unsupported snow can bury and move things in its path. Most avalanches do not cause any damage; however, occasionally people and property may fall in their paths. Snow avalanches kill more people on national forests than any other natural hazard [USFS, National Avalanche Center, www.avalanche.org]. Each winter, 25 to 30 people die in avalanches in the United States, and nearly all these deaths involve recreation on national forests. Avalanche formation requires a slope shallow enough for snow to accumulate but steep enough for the snow to accelerate once set in motion by the combination of mechanical failure (of the snowpack) and gravity. The angle of the slope that can hold snow, called the angle of repose, depends on a variety of factors such as crystal form and moisture content. Slopes flatter than 25 degrees or steeper than 60 degrees typically have a lower incidence of avalanches. Human-triggered avalanches have the greatest incidence when the snow's angle of repose is between 35 and 45 degrees; the critical angle, the angle at which human-triggered avalanches are most frequent, is 38 degrees. The rule of thumb is: A slope that is flat enough to hold snow but steep enough to ski has the potential to generate an avalanche, regardless of the angle. In the case of landslides, some move slowly and cause damage gradually, whereas others move quickly enough to destroy property and cause causalities. Gravity is the force driving landslide movement. Factors that allow the force of gravity to overcome the resistance of earth material to l andslide movement include saturation by water, steepening of slopes by erosion or construction, alternate freezing and 4 -3 thawing, earthquake shaking, and volcanic eruptions. Landslides are typically associated with periods of heavy rainfall or rapid snow melt and tend to worsen the effects of flooding that often accompanies these events. In areas burned by forest and brush fires, a lower threshold of precipitation may initiate landslides [FEMA, 1989]. 4.1.2 HISTORY The history of avalanches in Gallatin County is much more pronounced than that of landslides. Both, however, have occurred. Avalanches are a normal occurrence in Gallatin County and typically do not cause significant damages; however, injuries and casualties have occurred. Figure 4-1 outlines the annual number of fatalities due to avalanches in Montana beginning in 1969. Figure 4-1. Avalanche Fatalities by Avalanche Year [Colorado Avalanche Information Center, US Avalanche Accident Reports for Montana, 2017] The number of annual fatalities is increasing due to increased use of snowmobiles in the backcountry. Since 19 51, 117 people have been ki lled by avalanches in Montana with numerous additional injuries. Gallatin County has experienced 1 8 fatalities since 1996. Each incident is detailed below in Table 4 -1. Table 4-1. Avalanche Fatalities in Gallatin County [Avalanches.org 2018] Date Location Damage 4/14/2018 Bridger Range 1 sidecountry rider, partially buried, kill 1/2/2018 S. Madison Range 1 snowmobiler buried and killed 10/7/2017 S. Madison Range 2 skiers caught, 1 killed 1/19/2016 N. Madison Range 1 ski patroller caught, partly buried and 4/11/2015 N. Madison Range 1 backcountry tourer caught and killed 1/1/2014 N. Gallatin Range 1 snowmobiler caught and killed 2/14/2011 Bridger Range 1 skier triggered, caught and killed 4/14/2010 N. Madison Range 2 snowmobilers caught, 1 killed 12/10/2009 N. Gallatin Range 1 climber caught, partially buried and killed 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 19 6 9 19 7 5 19 8 1 19 8 5 19 8 7 19 9 2 19 9 4 19 9 6 19 9 8 20 0 0 20 0 2 20 0 5 20 0 7 20 0 9 20 1 1 20 1 4 20 1 6 Fatalities by Year 4 -4 2/11/2009 West Yellowstone 3 snowmobilers caught, 1 killed 1/20/2008 N. Madison Range 1 skier triggered, caught, buried and ki 3/3/2007 N. Madison Range 1 skier triggered, caught, buried and ki 12/28/2006 S. Madison Range 2 snowmobilers caught, 1 buried and k 3/24/2002 S. Madison Range 1 snowmobiler triggered, caught and k 4/4/2001 Bridger Range 1 skier caught, buried and killed 11/26/1999 N. Madison Range 2 skiers caught, 1 buried and killed 3/9/1996 West Yellowstone 1 snowmobiler buried and killed 2/25/1996 West Yellowstone 1 snowmobiler buried and killed Significant landslides have not been documented in Gallatin County; however, small ones are generally known to have occurred in various locations. Despite the numerous relatively minor incidents in Gallatin County from avalanches and landslides, none were declared state or federal disasters. 4.1.3 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has compiled statistics on a statewide basis on avalanche fatalities. Montana ranks fifth in the nation with 117 fatalities since 1951. The top three activities being undertaken at the time of an avalanche were backcountry skiing, snowmobiling, and climbing. Ratings have not been compiled for counties within Montana; however, the historical databases show that Gallatin County is one of the more vulnerable counties in the state from avalanche, particularly in the West Yellowstone and Gallatin Canyon areas. Figure 4 -2 below demonstrates that the population is most vulnerable to avalanches during the months of December, January, February, and March. Wet slab avalanche below Beehive Peak in Northern Madison Range, May 13, 2019 . Photo source: GNFAC, by @cfirer 4 -5 Figure 4-2. Avalanche Fatalities in Montana by Month [Colorado Avalanche Information Center, US Avalanche Accident Reports for Montana, 2017] Landslides have an even lower probability of creating a disaster based on a very limited history of events. Should landslides occur in this area, they typically do not affect life or property. The probability of a damaging landslide could greatly increase if development were to occur in landslide prone areas. Wildfire burn areas also greatly increase the probability of a landslide triggered by precipitation. The probability of an avalanche or landslide causing enough damage for a county, state, or federal disaster is considered low based on the historical record. 4.1.4 WARNINGS, WATCHES, AND ADVISORIES Avalanche warnings may be issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) in conjunction with the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center (GNFAC). This type of warning brings attention to severe avalanche dangers. During avalanche season, G NFAC issues detailed advisories outlining the avalanche hazards. The US Avalanche Danger Scale includes the following levels (Figure 4 -3): / Extreme Avalanche Danger: Avoid all avalanche terrain. Travel only on gentle slopes well away from areas affected by avalanches. / High Avalanche Danger: Very dangerous conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Extensive skill, experience, and local knowledge are essential. / Considerable Avalanche Danger: Dangerous avalanche conditions. Use conservative decision making, careful route finding, and good travel habits. Training and experience are essential. / Moderate Avalanche Danger: Dangerous avalanche conditions on some terrain features. Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully and use good travel habits. / Low Av alanche Danger: Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Oc t No v De v Ja n Fe b Ma r Ap r Ma y Ju n Fatalities by Month 4 -6 Figure 4-3. Avalanche Danger Scale Destructive landslides are often associated with heavy rains and flash flooding. The NWS issues flash flood watches and warnings. These alerts are likely during potentially significant landslides. The alerts and warnings issued by the NWS include: / Flash Flood Watch: Flash flood watches inform the public of conditions which may cause short duration, intense flooding from heavy precipitation, snow melt, dam failure, or ice jams within the next 36 hours, but the flooding is neither certain nor imminent. / Flash Flood Warning: Flash flood warnings are issued when flooding is imminent during short term events requiring immediate action. Flash flooding occurs when the water level rises rapidly to inundation within 6 hours of a causative event (i.e., heavy precipitation, snow melt, dam failure, or ice jams). Additionally, landslide risk may be increased following a wildfire. The burnt area is often prone to landslides, particularly when combined with heavy rainfall. 4.1.5 MAPPING Avalanches and landslides are difficult to map, due to their site -specific nature , based on terrain and snow conditions. G eotechnical engineers , engineering geologists and avalanche specialists are typically consulted to assess the avalanche or landslide susceptibility for a specific location. Several organizations, including the G NFAC (www.mtavalanche.com) and the American Avalanche Institute (www.americanavalancheinstitute.com), offer training courses to recreationists, ski patrol, and search and rescue personnel with the goal of introducing basic concepts of snow science and evaluation of snow and terrain conditions. This knowledge can then be applied practically to promote avalanche hazard mitigation and safe backcountry travel techniques. 4 -7 4.1.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY Critical facilities in Gallatin County historically have not suffered losses or been threatened by avalanches or landslides. The site -specific threat of avalanches and landslides to critical facilities in Gallatin County can only be realistically determined by a geotechnical engineer or project geologist. More generally, those buildings on flat terrain or surrounded by other structures likely have little vulnerability to landslides and avalanches. Similarly, buildings on steep slopes, at the bottom of hills, or in unstable soils likely have a higher vulnerability to avalanches and landslides. Critical infrastructure may be at risk from avalanches and landslides. The transportation network is likely the most vulnerable, particularly during periods of heavy rain, snow, or snowmelt. Infrastructure such as power lines could be destroyed by a lar ge landslide or avalanche; however, historical record does not demonstrate this potential. The most probable areas for landslides are on steep slopes, at the bottom of hills, and in unstable soils. Without a detailed soils and slope map depicting the landslide potential, the number of residential structures at risk from landslides is unknown. Similarly, predicting ava lanches requires an in-depth understanding of the snow surface and other factors. Fortunately, Gallatin County does not have any history of structures being destroyed by avalanches or landslides. POPULATION The primary threats to the population from avalanches and landslides are while recreating and driving. Avalanches and landslides can quickly bury and destroy road infrastructure, endangering those on the roadways. Additionally, the population could be threatened by an avalanche or landslide that damages an occupied structure. Most often, avalanches threaten those in hazard areas such as snowmobilers, skier, snowboarders, and climbers. ECONOMY Widespread economic impacts due to avalanches or landslides are not expected in Gallatin County ; however, economic impacts may occur either temporarily or by isolated sectors, such as the recreational snow sport industry. P ossible economic losses include commerce losses due to closed roadways, timber losses in avalanche and landslide areas, and tourism losses due to avalanche and landslide concerns. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Unless evaluated by a geotechnical engineer or similar professional, new development could occur in landslide and avalanche hazard areas. Some provisions are in place within the county subdivision regulations to restrict development in hazardous areas. More specifically, lands unsuitable for subdivision include potential hazard areas from snow avalanches, rock falls, landslides, steep slopes in excess of 25 percent grade, subsidence, and slumping. Thes e restrictions may prevent subdivisions in the most hazardous areas. Non-subdivision developments may still occur in some hazardous areas and others may have an unknown landslide or avalanche hazard at the time of evaluation. 4.1.7 DATA LIMITATIONS In general, data on avalanche and landslide hazards in Gallatin County is quite limited. The data limitations include : / Limited studies of the hazards for the area / Site -specific nature of the hazards 4 -8 4.1.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range) Gallatin County Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (16) (13 -39) Belgrade Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) (6-38) Big Sky High Low Moderate Low Moderate (27) (7-52) Bozeman High Low Low Low Moderate (18) (10-42) Manhattan/Three Forks Low Low Low Low Low (6) (6-37) West Yellowstone Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included : 1) probability that the hazard occur s, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy . Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score ranking among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankings. 4.2 AVIATION ACCIDENT 4.2.1 DESCRIPTION Aviation accidents can occur for a multitude of reasons ranging from mechanical failure to poor weather conditions to intentional causes. Accidents can vary from small single engine aircraft to large commercial jets. The location of the accident —such as a remote area versus a populated location —also plays an important role in the amount of destruction caused. Gallatin County has one large and two smaller airports. Bozeman -Yellowstone International Airport (BZN) , located in Belgrade, is the largest of the three and the busiest airport in the State of Montana. Progreba Field (9S5) is located in Three Forks and primarily ser ves smaller single engine aircraft . West Yellowstone Airport (WYS) is located near West Yellowstone and is primarily used in the summer months for tourism to Yellowstone Park and as a base station for fixed and rotor wing wildland firefighting aircraft . BZN is a full -service commercial airport serving the needs of travelers in the region. B ZN also has a significant cargo capacity and private ancillary servi ces. In 2017 the airport served a total of 1, 199,537 passengers over 76,223 tower operations and hand led over 5 million pounds of cargo. Seven major airlines offer flights with non-stop service to 17 U.S. cities. Large passenger aircraft serving these airports often fly over Gallatin County. Small aircraft accidents may be relatively minor in nature inv olving none or few casualties, whereas a large commercial aircraft could create a mass casualty incident requiring outside assistance. In addition to established airports and fixed wing traffic, helicopters and other aircraft can be found in most other ar eas of the county. An active wildfire season increases spotting and suppression activities by air and helibases may be set up in many locations. Other locations, such as Bozeman Health Deaconess Hospital, have frequent helicopter traffic conducting medical transports. Two air ambulance companies (Life Flight, Air Idaho) operate in the county providing medical response and transport capabilities. There 4 -9 are also three private rotor -wing services in the county and several Gallatin County residents have their own personal aircraft operating to and from their property. 4.2.2 HISTORY Table 4-2 briefly summarizes the aviation accident reports filed by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) from 1996 to 2017. Table 4-2. Aviation Accidents in Gallatin County [NTSB, 2017] Date Location Aircraft Type Casualties 7/21/2017 Bozeman Robinson Helicopte Nonfatal 3/22/2017 Bozeman STOL King Nonfatal 7/8/2015 Belgrade Pilatus PC12 Nonfatal 6/13/2015 Bozeman Cessna P210N Nonfatal 9/16/2013 Bozeman Piper PA 11 Nonfatal 8/12/2013 West Yellowstone Beech E35 Fatal 8/1/2013 West Yellowstone Bellanca 7GBVB Nonfatal 7/14/2013 Bozeman Boeing E75 Nonfatal 1/15/2011 Three Forks Bell 206B3 Nonfatal 8/30/2010 Belgrade Cessna 182C Fatal 1/18/2009 Three Forks Byan Nanon Nonfatal 10/3/2009 Bozeman Fisher DAK Nonfatal 9/5/2009 Bozeman Piper PA -20 Nonfatal 4/3/2008 Three Forks Piper PA -22 Nonfatal 7/29/2007 Three Forks Hughes 269C Nonfatal 6/24/2007 Bozeman Cessna 170A Nonfatal 2/6/2007 Belgrade Beechcraft 200 Fatal 8/2/2006 Belgrade Cessna 180A Fatal 4/14/2006 Belgrade Cessna 425 Nonfatal 11/29/2005 Belgrade Cessna 425 Fatal 12/4/2004 Belgrade Ci rrus SR22 Fatal 6/24/2004 Bozeman Cessna 185F Nonfatal 3/31/2004 Bozeman Cessna 305A Nonfatal 11/5/2002 Bozeman Riddel IV -P Fatal 7/31/2002 Belgrade Blanik L -13 Nonfatal 6/26/2001 Bozeman Piper PA -38-112 Nonfatal 6/26/2001 Bozeman Cessna 172M Nonfatal 3/4/2001 Bozeman Avia Stroitel AC -5M Nonfatal 2/8/2001 Bozeman Piper PA -12 Nonfatal 3/16/2000 Three Forks Piper PA -18-150 Nonfatal 3/4/2000 Bozeman Cessna 180H Nonfatal 4 -10 Date Location Aircraft Type Casualties 10/20/1999 Bozeman Piper PA -24-250 Nonfatal 8/21/1999 Belgrade Cessna 180A Nonfatal 6/17/1999 Belgrade Let L -13 Nonfatal 2/15/1998 Bozeman Piper PA -17 Nonfatal 12/7/1997 Bozeman Pitts S -2B Fatal 12/7/199 7 Bozeman Cessna P206A Fatal 10/5/199 6 Big Sky Aerospatiale SA -315B Nonfatal 8/25/1996 Bozeman Forney F -1 Nonfatal 8/3/1996 Belgrade GS G -164A Nonfatal 4.2.3 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE As the historical record demonstrates, the probability for a private, small aircraft accident is much greater than one involving a large commercial jet in Gallatin County. Although an incident involving a commercial passenger flight and mass casualties cannot be ruled out, the probability is considered low. Statistics compiled based on NTSB incident reports over the last 20 years can be found in Table 4 -3 . Table 4-3. Accident Summary [NTSB, 2017] Location Number of Incident Fatalities Bozeman 21 3 Belgrade 12 6 Three Forks 5 0 West Yellowstone 2 1 Big Sky 1 0 Total 41 10 According to the National Transportation and Safety Board, 91 aviation accidents have occurred in Gallatin County since 1965, 34 of which involved fatalities. In this period, there was an average of 1.75 aviation accide nts per year, with an average of 0.65 aviation accidents involving fatalities per year. 4.2.4 MAPPING Aviation incidents can occur both on and off airport facilities. Areas close to airports are theoretically at greater risk due to their proximity to local air traffic, though all areas within the county are vulnerable. 4.2.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS The hazard of aviation accidents can involve multiple factors. The two most significant include the location of the accident and the cargo on board. The location of an aviation accident will determine the significance of ground casualties and damages. An aircraft accident in a populated downtown area has a much greater potential for additional casualties and property damage than one that occurs in a remote part of the county. The location also affects the ability of responders to get to the crash site. The mountainous terrain in Gallatin County can make rescues and recovery difficult, particularly during inclement weather. The cargo is an important factor, if such cargo would create a hazardous material release or increased fire hazard. Should the contents of the aircraft be hazardous, the situation would need to be treated not only 4 -11 as an aviation accident but also as a contaminated site. The possibility of an aviation accident as an intentional act cannot be ruled out, in which case the accident site would also become a crime scene and possibly involve mass casualties. Any hazard that involves aircraft in the response or recovery could have an aircraft accident as an associated hazard. The helicopt er crash during the Fridley Fire in adjacent Park County in 2001 is an example, where a firefighting helicopter crashed during bucket operations. Other possibilities include supply aircraft hauling recovery materials following an earthquake or flood. 4.2.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY All critical facilities in Gallatin County are at risk from aircraft accidents. Given the nature of historical events and the probability of a specific facility being hit, the overall vulnerability of any given critical facility is considered very low. Bozeman Health Deaconess Hospital and Big Sky Med ical center, however, ha ve been identified as facilities at an increased risk due to the helicopter medical transport operations conducted there. Both physical infrastructure and critical functionality losses are possible. All above -ground critical infras tructure is at risk from aviation accidents, as well as some below-ground infrastructure. Tall communications towers and power lines carry a slightly elevated risk, due to their elevation. Critical infrastructure damage may result in loss of functionality. All structures are at risk from aircraft accidents, though the likelihood of an accident impacting any given structure is extremely low. If an aircraft directly impacted a residential structure, damages could vary in the tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars, depending on the structure and nature of the accident. Both structure and content losses could be incurred. POPULATION Aviation accidents pose the greatest threat to the population, due to the history of fatalities in Gallatin County. In accidents, the impact on population is dependent on the type of aircraft involved, the number of people on board, the location of the accident, and the number of people in the area of the crash site. Typically, with aircraft accidents, very little warning exists so the population would be unaware until after the event occurred. ECONOMY Tourism and recreation are significant economic drivers in Gallatin County. Aviation accidents large enough to prevent or otherwise deter future tourists from entering the area could have a significant impact on the local economy. Additional possible economic losses include localized agriculture or business losses, and business and revenue losses due to decreased tourism. Losses in the Belgrade area may be slightly higher, as the primary airport of the region is located just outside city limits. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Due to the unpredictable location of aircraft accidents, the impact of future development is generally the same regardless of where that development occurs, with a possible exception being the immediate airport vicinity. Therefore, the impact of future development is considered minimal. 4 -12 4.2.7 DATA LIMITATIONS Data limitations related to the aviation accident hazard include difficulty in predicting where future aircraft accidents will oc cur. 4.2.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Low Low Low Low (15) (13 -39) Belgrade Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate (16) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) (7-52) Bozeman Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Moderate Low Low Low Low (17) (6-37) West Yellowstone Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determi ne an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankings. 4.3 CIVIL UNREST 4.3.1 DESCRIPTION Civil unrest, or disobedience, typically occurs when large groups, organizations, or distraught individuals act with potentially disastrous or disruptive results. Civil unrest can be the product of another event that creates panic in the community. Within the past year there have been several instances of civil unrest that have gained national attention; an armed standoff in defiance of federal land policies at the Malheur National Wildfire Refuse near Burns , Oregon, and the Dakota Acc ess Pipeline, Standing Rock protest s in the Dakotas over potential impacts to drinking water and cultural sites, to name a few. Gallatin County has a politically and socially active populace, and as such many events and protests are held in the County eac h year. While historically these protests are both peaceful and lawful, the potential exists for any event to escalate into civil unrest. Special Response Team at Bozeman-Yellowstone International Airport during 2009 Presidential visit. Unknown photographer. 4.3.2 HISTORY Fortunately, Gallatin County has not experienced major incidents in which civil unrest caused notable damages or injuries. In recent years isolated events have occurred in which rapid police response de - escalated situations which had the potential to develop into civil unrest. Examples include a protest in front of the Bozeman Islamic Center, in which a masked man was seen op enly carrying a shotgun while 4 -13 protesting, as well as the anti -gay protest held at M SU by the Westboro church, in which hundreds of community members staged a simultaneous counter -protest. Another example of civil unrest that has occurred numerous times ove r many years are the protests near Yellowstone National Park to stop the harassment and roundup of bison due to their threat of spreading brucellosis. 4.3.3 PROBABILITY With very little experience and data locally on this hazard, a specific probability for future civil unrest is hard to determine. Based on the historical record and ability of law enforcement to rapidly identify and deescalate potential civil unrest situations , the probability of a large -scale civil unrest is considered low. 4.3.4 MAPPING The City of Bo zeman is the most populous part of Gallatin County. Thus, this area is most likely to experience civil unrest. However, civil unrest can occur anywhere people are able to meet, and thus the risk is considered present in all jurisdictions and throughout the entire county. 4.3.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Civil unrest is often triggered by an emotionally charged event or outcome. Once initiated, it can lead to other hazards such as violence. 4.3.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY Critical facilities in Gallatin County a re at low risk from civil unrest. While damage is possible, it is considered unlikely. Residential and business property losses are considered the most likely structure losses. Looting is commonly found in association with these types of events. Urban area s, places of public gathering, and important government or economic assets are generally going to be the areas of greatest risk. POPULATION The effects of civil unrest can be felt by the population, though usually on a limited scale, in comparison with o ther human-caused violence such as terrorism. The greatest risk is to human lives during times of unrest. ECONOMY Economic losses will vary dramatically depending upon the incident. Small, isolated incidents are unlikely to have a major impact on the local economy. Large, nationally publicized incidents have the potential to deter tourism. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Development should have little impact on the civil unrest threat. The exception would be the increase in population and associated large venues for gatherings with the potential to hold large events.. 4.3.7 DATA LIMITATIONS Since civil unrest incidents tend to be isolated events , and little history exists in Gallatin County, the probability and potential losses are difficult to quantify. Therefore, generalities have been made to 4 -14 estimate where potential losses could be. Site specific surveys would allow for an analysis of weaknesses of critical facilities, infrastructure, and vulnerable populations to civil unrest incidents. 4.3.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (16) (13 -39) Belgrade Low Low Moderate Moderate Low (10) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) (7-52) Bozeman Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) (6-37) West Yellowstone Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (21) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankin gs. 4.4 COMMUNICABLE DISEASE AND BIOTERRORISM 4.4.1 DESCRIPTION Diseases affect humans, animals, and plants continuously. Each species has its own natural immune system to ward off most diseases. The causes and significance of diseases vary. Of significance in the disaster prevention realm are communicable diseases with the potential for high infection rates in humans or those which might necessitate the destruction of livestock or crops. Such diseases can devastate human populations and the economy. Disease transmi ssion may occur naturally or intentionally, as in the case of bioterrorism, and infect populations rapidly with little notice. New diseases regularly emerge or mutate. Known diseases, such as influenza, can be particularly severe in any given season. Terrorism experts also theorize the possibility of attacks using biological agents. HUMAN DISEASE Human epidemics may lead to quarantines, large-scale medical needs, and mass fatalities. Typically, the elderly, young children, and those with suppressed immune s ystems are at greatest risk from communicable diseases. The following biologic agents are considered the highest bioterrorism threats (Category A) because of their ease of dissemination or person-to -person transmission, high mortality rate with potential for major public health impacts, potential for public panic and social disruption, and the necessity for special public health preparedness [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), 2016]: / Anthrax / Botulism / Plague 4 -15 / Smallpox / Tularemia / Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers In addition to global disease and bioterrorism concerns, naturally occurring diseases can threaten communities. Natural illnesses of particular concern, among others, include: / Food-borne illnesses, such as E. Coli and Salmonella / Influenza / Meningitis / Pertussis/Whooping Cough / Measles / Norwalk Virus / Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) These diseases can infect populations rapidly, particularly in large -group settings such as schools, assisted living facilities, and workplaces. Photo of measles rash (CDC via Getty Images). Early 2019 saw the highest number of measles cases in the U.S. in 20 years. Well-developed surveillance and epidemiologic capacity are the foundation on which health departments detect, evaluate, and mitigate disease and bioterrorism impacts. Complementing the need for accurate and timely case reports is the need for expertise to analyze the information properly. Epidemiologic expertise is critical to judging whether the incident involves biological or chemical agents o r is a consequence of a natural phenomenon, an accident, or terrorism. Extraordinary measures are not necessary to develop a comprehensive terrorism health surveillance and epidemiologic network. Initiating partnerships and developing new or pre -existing data links have always been components of public health systems while using current technology to promote timely disease identification and reporting. Gallatin County Public Health Department possesses the legal authority to receive reports and investigate unusual illness clusters. The health care system lacks the capabilities needed to effectively handle large numbers of victims. 4 -16 ANIMAL DISEASE Gallatin County is an agricultural and ranching community. Animal diseases, particularly those that infect livestock, can distress the agricultural community. Such diseases could lead to food shortages and negative economic impacts, depending on the animals infected and the geographic extent of the disease. Diseases or conditions requiring state and federal reporting and quarantine include [Montana Department of Livestock, 2015]: / Acute swine erysipelas / African horse sickness / African swine fever / Avian influe nza / Bovine babesiosis / Bovine spongiform encephalopathy / Brucellosis / Cattle fever tick / Chronic wasting disease / Classical swine fever / Contagious equine metritis / Dourine / Equine encephalomyelitis / Equine infectious anemia / Equine piroplasmosis / Exotic Newcastle disease / Foot and mouth disease / Fowl typhoid / Glanders / Heartwater / Japanese encephalitis / Lumpy skin disease / Malignant catarrhal fever / Mange / Nairobi sheep disease / New and Old -World Screwworm / Nipah virus encephalitis / Peste des petits ruminants / Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea PEDv / Pseudorabies / Rabbit hemorrhagic disease 4 -17 / Rift Valley Fever / Rinderpest / Scrapie / Sheep pox and goat pox / Surra / Swine influenza / Swine vesicular disease / Trypanosomosis / Tuberculosis / Vesicular exanthema / Vesicular stomatitis / Viral hemorrhagic septicemia Diseases or conditions requiring state reporting and quarantine include: / Anthrax / Bluetongue / Contagious agalactia / Contagious caprine / Pleuropneumonia / Contagious foot rot / Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever / Equine viral arteritis / Equine rhinopneumonitis, neurologic form / Ovine pediculosis / Plague / Pullorum disease / S. Pullorum / Q-Fever / Rabies / Theileriosis / Trichomonosis / Tularemia / West Nile Virus PLANT DISEASE Many plant and crop diseases exist. Of most concern are those diseases that spread rapidly and cause widespread economic losses. The specific diseases that could cause plant epidemics depend on the species. Of specific concern in Gallatin County would be those diseases that affect forage/hay, barley, 4 -18 wheat, oats, or potatoes. Although not cate gorized as a disease, new pests and weeds introduced could have similar impacts. 4.4.2 HISTORY Diseases are a part of everyday life. In cases where disease significantly impacts the population actions can be taken to prevent additional infection. Most recently, a statewide measles outbreak in 1988 was noted by the Gallatin County Health Department. Approximately three human influenza pandemics have occurred over the past 100 years, one severely affecting the United States. Following World War I, the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918 killed 20 -40 million people worldwide, including 675,000 Americans [Billings, 1997]. In the State of Montana, the Spanish influenza caused 9.9 deaths per 1,000 people from 1918-1919 [Brainerd, 2002]. In 2008, an outbreak of the infectious disease anthrax killed 25 domestic bison on the Flying D Ranch southwest of Bozeman. 4.4.3 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE Quantifying the probability of a human epidemic affecting Gallatin County presents challenges due to a limited history of outbrea ks. Data documenting disease outbreak in recent years has been compiled by the Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services and is listed in Table 4 -4 . Blank cells indicate data was not available. Table 4-4. Documented Communicable Disease in Gallatin County [Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services, 2018] 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Acute Flaccid Myelitis 0 Brucellosis 0 0 Campylobacteriosis 32 27 36 31 25 34 44 40 44 Chikungunya virus 0 0 0 Chlamydia 243 233 276 326 327 348 412 522 542 Coccidioidomycosis 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 3 Colorado Tick Fever 2 0 0 0 0 Cr eu tzfeldt -Jakob Disease 0 0 0 0 1 Cryptosporidiosis 18 9 2 5 10 10 6 13 13 Cyclosporiasis 2 0 1 Dengue 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 Ehrlichiosis 0 0 1 Giardiasis 21 19 10 10 18 19 15 33 24 Gonorrhea 4 12 3 3 3 10 26 32 29 Haemophilus influenzae 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndro 0 0 1 0 0 Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hepatitis A, Acute 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 2 Hepatitis B, Acute 0 0 0 1 1 1 Hepatitis B, Chronic 2 5 1 3 1 3 3 4 -19 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hepatitis C, Acute 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Hepatitis C, Chronic 43 52 52 68 48 HIV 1 1 1 0 2 5 2 Legionellosis 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 Listeriosis 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 Lyme Disease 1 0 3 1 3 2 0 3 2 Malaria 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 Meningococcal Disease 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Pertussis 9 9 49 25 25 39 25 5 1 Q Fever 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 Rabies, Animal 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 1 3 Shiga-toxin producing E. coli (STEC) 1 4 5 9 11 5 15 22 11 Salmonellosis 18 11 19 9 15 14 23 12 20 Shigellosis 0 2 5 0 5 1 4 3 1 Spotted Fever Rickettsiosis 0 2 0 2 0 Streptococcal Toxic -Shock Syn d. 2 0 1 3 Streptococcus pneumoniae 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 Syphilis 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 1 3 Tuberculosis 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 Tularemia 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 Varicella 12 16 6 8 8 8 4 6 West Nile 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Medical advances over the past 50 years prevent many disease outbreaks, yet the potential remains. Gallatin County is a popular tourist destination and has a substantial transient population due to Montana State University and Gallatin College students. Travelers that pass through the county after being exposed to a disease could potentially start an epidemic. Lacking the resources of larger population areas, any exposure to one of these diseases could quickly overwhelm county public health capabilities. Animal and plant disease outbreaks are even harder to predict. Most global livestock diseases have been confined to specific countries due to strict import regulations. Any plant di sease outbreaks have been relatively easily contained. The magnitude of a communicable disease outbreak varies from every -day disease occurrences to widespread infection. During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, infection rates approached 28% in the United States (Billings, 1997). Such a pandemic affecting Gallatin County represents a severe magnitude event. Almost any highly contagious, incapacitating disease that enters the regional population could overwhelm local health resources. Similarly, any rapidly spr eading bioterrorism event for which little vaccination or containment capability exists is a high magnitude event. 4 -20 4.4.4 MAPPING The communicable disease hazard is uniform across the county, and therefore, mapping does not enhance this hazard profile. Urban areas may be slightly more vulnerable to the rapid spread of human disease; however, rural areas are more vulnerable to plant and animal disease. 4.4.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Other diseases such as those that result in the loss or contamination of potable water or sanitary services may result in an increased probability of disease. Often disease is a concern following a large-scale disaster. The time of year and weather conditions may also be a factor I the development of an epidemic. A bioterrorism event may be tied to or done in conjunction with a larger scale terrorism event. 4.4.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY In general, c ritical facilities are not structurally threatened by communicable disease and bioterrorism; however, their accessibility and function can be lost. Contamination of a critical facility could render the facility non-functional until decontamination or the threat has passed. With the loss of function of facilities supporting emergency response, delays in emergency services could result. Additionally, with a significant human disease outbreak, resources such as ambulance services and the hospitals could quickly become overwhelmed. This is especially true in rural areas, such as Manhattan and Three Forks, where limited resources exist and replacing any effected staff would be difficult due to a limited population. Should a building become contaminated by some disease agent, cleanup costs and the loss of use of the buildings could result. Such costs could be significant. For this reason, all critical facilities are assumed to be at some risk from communicable disease. Diseases can spread quickly in facilities housing vulnerable populations such as schools and elderly housing. Often these facilities, as well as the hospitals and medical clinics, are the first places where diseases are identified and treated. In most cases, infrastructure would not be affected by communicable disease. Scenarios that would affect infrastructure include the contamination of the water supplies and diseases that require special provisions in the treatment of wastewater. Should an epidemic necessitate a quarantine or incapacitate a significant portion of the population, support of and physical repairs to infrastructure may be delayed, and services may be disrupted for a time due to limitations in getting affected employees to work. The structural integrities of residential buildings are not generally threatened by communicable disease. As with critical facilities, should a structure become contaminated, cleanup costs could be expensive. POPULATION Perhaps the most significant impact from communicable disease is to the population. Disease can spread rapidly through schools, universities, health facilities, and communities. The entire county population of 1 11,8 76 (2018 estimate , US Census Bureau) plus non-residents are at risk for contracting a communicable disease. The Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research (ITRR) at the University of Montana reported nearly 2,000,000 non-resident visitors to Bozeman alone in 2017 [ITRR, 2018], meaning a significant number of persons could be affected by communicable disease. The number of infections 4 -21 and fatalities would depend on the transmission and mortality rates. In the case of human disease, residents and visitors in urban areas such as Bozeman, Belgrade, Big Sky, and West Yellowstone are most at risk. Using a general estimate of 35 percent for the infection rate and a mortality rate (once infected) of 20%, as can be the case in an influenza pandemic, approxim ately 39,157 residents of Gallatin County could be infected , with about 7, 832 fatal infections. This estimate is extreme but uses plausible infection and mortality rates. As with any disease, age and other health conditions can be a contributing factor. The ability to control the spread of disease depends on the virulence of the disease, the time lapse before the onset of symptoms, the movement of the population, and the warning time involved. Vaccinations, anti -virals, quarantines, a nd other protective measures may also prevent the spread and impact of the disease. Besides human diseases, animal and plant diseases could negatively affect agriculture and limit food supplies. ECONOMY Potential economic impacts include service industry losses during human quarantines and limited travel, business interruptions due to a lack of workers and customers during human outbreaks , and direct agricultural losses during animal or plant disease outbreaks . Areas which depend almost exclusively on tourism, such as West Yellowstone, are most susceptible to economic losses associated with communicable disease. IMPACT OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Future development would have little impact on the communicable disease vulnerabilities, unless the new structures regularly processed or handled biological disease agents. New residents add to the number of people threatened in Gallatin County, but the location of such population increases is unlikely to affect the overall hazard. 4.4.7 DATA LIMITATIONS The data limitations related to the communicable disease and bioterrorism hazard include: / Uncertainties related to how and when a disease will spread through a population / The emergence of new, unstudied diseases 4.4.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (25) (13 -39) Belgrade Moderate Low High Moderate Moderate (19) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Low High Moderate Moderate (23) (7-52) Bozeman Moderate Low High High High (28) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (24) (6-37) West Yellowstone Moderate Low High High Moderate (30) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values 4 -22 to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankin gs. 4.5 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DISRUPTION (INCLUDES CYBER-SECURITY) 4.5.1 DESCRIPTION Critical infrastructure disruption, which can include utility outages and building/infrastructure closures, can be caused by almost any of the hazards described in this risk asses sment or because of human error or equipment failures. Electric, gas, water, telephone and internet are all important services that could become problematic should a long -term outage occur. Electricity is used to power many homes in Gallatin County, to pump wells, and run heating systems, even if electricity is not the primary fuel source. Therefore, if electricity was lost for a long period of time, many residents could be without heat, water, and other appliances. Vulnerable populations needing powered medical equipment would be additionally threatened by a long -term power outage. Natural gas is used as a heat source for many residents in the northern half of Gallatin County. Should that utility be lost in the winter months, the concerns associated with extended cold could be significant. Telephone services are most critical for 911 communications, and the rapid dispatch of needed emergency services. Cell phones would also be lost if telephone service went down. Many of the larger communities in Gallatin County have public water supplies. Should those services be lost, many citizens would be without water and possibly sewer services. Any of these disruptions can be handled in a short time frame but can quickly become problematic in long term situations. 4.5.2 HISTORY Gallatin County has not had any significant utility outages that can be considered disastrous , though short-term and minor disruptions are common. 4.5.3 PROBABILITY Due to the history of critical infrastructure disruptions, the probability of a major critical infrastructure disruption in Gallatin County is considered moderate . As growth occurs, the ability of many of the utility systems to keep up with the increased demand may increase the probability of a long-term outage. West Yellowstone is at increased risk of utility outages, as propane used by the city is delivered via truck daily, and the city is only able to maintain a small amount of fuel reserves. The city is only acces sible via US Highways 191 and 20. Should one or both routes become inaccessible, a fuel shortage would rapidly develop in the area. As such, the probability of a critical infrastructure disruption is considered high in West Yellowstone. 4.5.4 MAPPING Many of the public utility features in Gallatin County have yet to be mapped and those that have been mapped are withheld for system security purposes. Mapping is maintained by the entity managing the utility. 4 -23 4.5.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Critical infrastructure disruption can be caused by many of the hazards described in these profiles. Anything from an earthquake to a terrorist event could cause utilities to fail. Events that utility systems are particularly vulnerable to include earthquakes, floods, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, winter storms, wildfires, and dam breaks. 4.5.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY Critical facilities are vulnerable to utility outages. Some critical facilities do have back -up generators in case of an electricity outage. Most emergency services facilities, to include the 911 dispatch center and the emergency operations center have back up power. Others, however, may have limited functionality following an event due to a utility failure or critical infrastructure disruption. Critical infrastructure disruptions typically do not impact structures directly. A long-term utility outage during extended cold could result in numerous frozen water pipes inside homes and businesses. Most often, economic losses occur during long-term utility outa ges. These losses would be most felt by businesses that require electricity or water to operate. POPULATION Without services such as heated shelters , food, and drinking water, the population could suffer. Significant casualties would not be expected since these services could be available in a nearby community. If not, necessary sheltering and feeding provisions would be made to protect the population. Significant relocations of vulnerable populations and disruption of normal lifestyles would be expected. Populations in urban areas would be most vulnerable to critical infrastructure disruptions, as people in these communities are more likely to rely on the infrastructure to fulfill daily needs. Examples include sanitary systems, and heat. Rural areas outside of the incorporated cities and towns may have a higher portion of the population which utilize on-site water, sewer, and fuel storage, and thus rely less on critical infrastructure. As noted previously, West Yellowstone is particularly vulnerable to heating fuel disruptions due to the need to import fuel daily. Should conditions prevent or delay several deliveries , a substantial portion of the population would be left with no way to heat their homes. Depending on temperature and season, this could have a disastrous impact on the population. ECONOMY A critical infrastructure disruption often causes temporary business closures, as most businesses rely on internet and telecommunications services to process payments, and other utilities for production, sanitation, and employee wellbeing. These disruptions are expected to be more pronounced in areas with significant tourism, as visitors are likely to leave the area if critical services and utilities are not available. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Future development is not expected to have significant impact on this hazard. Increased populations add to the challenges of managing a long -term utility outage but would not increase the damages necessarily. 4 -24 4.5.7 DATA LIMITATIONS Since long term utility outages are not a normal event for Gallatin County, understanding the specific problems and concerns of this hazard are the greatest limitation. Studies of each of the critical facilities would allow for a more in-depth discussion of their vulnerabilities. 4.5.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Moderate High Moderate High (32) (13-39) Belgrade Moderate Moderate High High High (36) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Moderate High Moderate High (35) (7-52) Bozeman Moderate Moderate High Moderate High (34) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (25) (6-37) West Yellowstone High Moderate High High High (47) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determi ne an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankings. 4.6 DAM FAILURE 4.6.1 DESCRIPTION Dams have been constructed throughout Montana for various reasons including recreation, flood control, irrigation, water supply, hydroelectricity, and mining. Dams are built and owned by a variety of entities such as private individual s, businesses, and government. The structural integrity of a dam depends on its design, maintenance, and weather/drainage situation. Dam failure occurs when the forces of gravity or other external forces overcome the structural integrity of a dam. The reas ons for failure can include poor construction, deterioration, extreme winds, and earthquakes. When dams fail the resulting flow can be compared to riverine or flash flooding in the area downstream from the dam . Problems arise when a dam fails, and people and/or property lie in the inundation area. Hazard ratings are assigned to dams for emergency management planning purposes. These ratings are based on the potential for loss of life and property damage should the dam fail, and do not reflect the condition or probability of dam failure. Definitions, as accepted by F EMA (FEMA, 2004), are as follows: / Low Hazard Potential: Dam failure or mis -operation results in no probable loss of human life and low economic and/or environmental losses. Losses are principally limited to the owner’s property. / Significant Hazard Potential: Dam failure or mis -operation results in no probable loss of human life but can cause economic loss, environmental damages , disruption of lifeline facilities, or can impact other concerns. / High Hazard Potential: Dam failure or improper operation is likely to cause loss of life. 4 -25 Hyalite Reservoir, 2011. Photo courtesy Patrick Lonergan & Summit Air Ambulance. Gallatin County has, or could be affected by, six high hazard dams, one s ignificant hazard dam, and four low hazard dams as shown in Table 4-5. Table 4-5. Dams Located in Gallatin County (or with potential significant impacts to the county) [National Inventory of Dams, 2017] 1 Big Sky Dam/Lake Levinsky is located in Madison County, approximately 1 mile west of the Gallatin County boundary. It is incl uded in this table because the effects of a dam failure would occur almost entirely within Gallatin County. 2 Madison Dam/Ennis Lake is located in Madison County, approximately 9 miles south of MT Highway 84. It is included in this table because the effects of a dam failure could impact portions of Gallatin County. 3 Willow Creek Dam/Reservoir (Harrison Lake) is located in Madison County, approximately 3 miles southwest of the Gallatin County boundary. It is included in this table because the effects of a dam failure could significantly impact portions of Gallatin County. 4.6.2 HISTORY There are no known accidental dam breaks in the history of Gallatin County. Several dams have purposely been breached for various reasons in the past. The most recent was the Mystic Lake Dam in Sourdough Canyon, this dam was breached as a mitigation measure to prevent a future failure. The Mystic Lake Dam was a water retention dam for the City of Bozeman water supply. Hazard Rating Height (ft) Storage (acre-ft) Dam Purpose Year Constructed River Owner Big Sky Dam/Lake Levi1 (Madison County) High 52 172 Recreation/ Water Supp 1973 Middle Fork of West For Gallatin Rive Boyne USA Golden Meadow Low 8 63 Stock 1974 Meadow Creek Higgins Brothers Green Hollow Creek Da High 45 300 Recreation 1990 Green Hollow Cree Turner Enterprises, Inc Hebgen Dam High 120 525,620 Flood Contro, Hydroelectric 1915 Madison River Northwestern Energy Kistner Hardy Dam Significant 8 70 Stock 1945 S. Fork Muddy Cree Robert Weyerhauser Madison Dam 2 (Ennis Lake, Madison Co) High 39 42,053 Hydroelectric Recreation 1906 Madison River NorthWestern Energy Middle Creek (Hyalite) D High 125 10,184 Irrigation, Water Suppl 1951 Middle Cree Montana DNRC Pacabo Low 15 69 Fire Protectio Stock 1956 Darlington Ditch Harry Gillingham Real Close Low 20 52 Irrigation 1963 Duck Creek Rupert D Koelza Schutter Reservoir Low 17 200 Irrigation Not Availabl N/A Cliff Schutter Willow Creek Dam 3 (Madison County) High 105 18,000 Irrigation, Recreation 1938 Willow Cree Dry Hollow C Norwegian C Montana DNRC 4 -26 In August 2008, two of the mechanical outlet gates at the Hebgen Lake Dam failed causing a rapid increase in water discharge from the dam (flows increased from 800 cubic feet/second [cfs] to 3,400 cfs. Subsequent inspections revealed that the dam was structurally sound. This incident initiated a large-scale repair and replacement project of the dam’s outlet works and emergency spillway. In March 2016, a holding pond containing treated wastewater from the Yellowstone Club breached and spilled approximately 30 million gallons which even tually reached the South Fork West Fork of the Gallatin River. Data results from sampling that occurred immediately following the spill indicated that Montana health standards were not exceeded. Aquatic life standards were exceeded for ammonia and sediment . In spring of 2018, failures of two dams in Meagher County resulted in flows into Sixteenmile Creek in northern Gallatin County. 4.6.3 PROBABILITY Several dams throughout the county are classified as high hazard; however, the probability of those dams breaking is considered low. High or significant hazard dams are the most probable to cause damages, and none are known to be unstable. The Montana DNRC keeps an assessment of dams not meeting safety standards. 4.6.4 MAPPING Figure 4-4 provides mapping of inundation areas for breaches of the six high-hazard dams listed in Table 4-5; three of the dams (Green Hollow Creek, Hebgen, and Middle Creek) are located in Gallatin County, while the other three dams (Big Sky, Madison, and Willow Creek) are located in Madison County but have breach inundation areas that significantly affect Gallatin County. Figure 4 -5 shows a larger scale map of the inundation area for the Middle Creek (Hyalite) Dam during a n overtopping flood event. Inundation mapping for breaches of all high-hazard dams is included in their Emergency Action Plans (EAPs). 4.6.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Dam failure is most often associated with other hazards. Heavy rainfall or high-water levels from rapid snowmelt are typica lly a contributing factor in dam failure. In this scenario, flooding may already be occurring, in which case a dam failure would aggravate the situation. Dams have also failed as a result of significant earthquakes. Dam failure resulting from a terrorist act is possible although unlikely due to the well-documented engineering principles and design standards that are required to ensure that dams can withstand a variety of unusual and extreme conditions in the natural environment. These rigorous design and c onstruction process es produce inherently robust structures that cannot be easily exploited by terrorists. 4.6.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY There are a few critical facilities located within dam failure inundation areas in the county. During a failure, these facilities could be expected to be significantly impacted. S ome roadways may become impassible, making travel to critical facilities more difficult. 4 -27 Depending on the type of infrastructure, dam failure could result in long -term disruptions while new arrangements are made. According to the dam breach models, much of Belgrade, Four Corners, and significant portions of Interstate 90 and Highway 191 would be inundated and susceptible to significant damage following a breach of Middle Creek Dam. Furthermore, th e airport would be inaccessible, and the railroad would be disconnected in several places. Interruptions in drinking water and utility services would be expected in some areas. Failure of the Middle Creek Dam would have significant catastrophic effects on many residential structures within Gallatin County. Just over one hour after total failure a 35-foot high wave of water and debris is forecasted to reach the mouth of Hyalite Ca nyon. Fifty minutes later the water reaches Four Corners at depths ranging from 2.5 to over 8 feet. 4 -28 Figure 4-4. Map of breach inundation areas for High-Hazard Dams in, or affecting, Gallatin County. 4 -29 Figure 4-5. Middle Creek Dam Inundation Area – Overtopping Breach Analysis (HDR, DNRC, 2018) 4 -30 Potential failures of the Hebgen or Madison Dams in Madison County, or the Willow Creek Dam in Gallatin County, would have a significant impact on the Three Forks area, with impacts potentially propagating further downstream into Broadwater County. These i mpacts could include disruption of highway traffic on I-90, and rail traffic in the Missouri Headwaters area north of I-90. The City of Three Forks could be entirely flooded and cutoff from access via surface roads and rail. Significant industries that cou ld be affected include the Imerys talc plant in Three Forks and the GCC cement plant in Trident. POPULATION With any flooding or dam failure event, the loss of life is always possible. As with flash flooding, the warning time for a dam failure can be short, but some warning does exist. The Middle Creek Dam poses the greatest risk to lives in Gallatin County. This dam currently has an early warning system. P opulations in Bozeman and West Yellowstone are less vulnerable than other jurisdictions due to lack of nearby dams. ECONOMY Significant economic impacts would be felt in the aftermath of a large dam failure, while a small dam failure would be expected to have only a minimal, localized impact. Business losses may occur due to damage to structures, property, and infrastructure. Additional losses could be incurred in the form of damaged agricultural land and reduced tourism and recreation. A dam failure would cause significant ecologic disruption in areas affected by the dam brea ch, which may include loss of habitat in some cases. Historic structures and contents may be damaged if located in the inundation area. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT F uture development could place residences and business in the inundation areas . This is particularly true for development in Belgrade and Manhatta n, as well as the Four Corners area, where land is currently largely rural and agricultural and is experiencing significant growth and development. 4.6.7 DATA LIMITATIONS The data limitations related to dam failure include: / Lack of a loss ratio specific to dam failure, as many structures in the inundation area may experience little damage while others may be complete losses 4.6.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (15) (13 -39) Belgrade Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (12) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Low Low Moderate Low (14) (7-52) Bozeman Low High High Moderate Moderate (17) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (15) (6-37) West Yellowstone Low Low Low Moderate Low (7) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . 4 -31 The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankin gs. 4.7 DROUGHT “Drought is an insidious hazard of nature. Although it has scores of definitions, it originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period, usually a season or more. This deficiency results in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Drought should be considered relative to long-term conditions that reflect a balance of precipitation and evapotranspiration in a particular area, a condition often perceived as ‘normal’ ” [Sivakumar and Wilhite, 2002 ]. Droughts can range from minor to severe, short-term to long-term with a variety of determining factors such as precipitation, soil moisture, and tree moisture. A minor, short-term drought can slip by unnoticed while a long -term severe drought can impact the agricultural economy, natural resources such as fish populations, and even public water supplies. In Montana, drought conditions have also been associated with grasshopper infestations and blight. Montana is known for its arid climate and Gallatin County is no exception. The region has been in and out of droughts throughout history based on climate information, drought indices such as the Palmer Index, and drought monitoring at the national level. As of May 2019, Gallatin County was not in a drought. Figure 4 -6 shows the drought status of the United States o n May 28, 2019 . The State of Montana has a Drought Advisory Committee and a State Drought Plan in place to address this hazard. Historical weather records show that Bozeman temperatures can get as high as 106 ºF in the summer with extremely low humidity and high winds. Such dry, hot conditions exacerbate droughts during periods of low precipitation. Figure 4-6. US Drought Monitor Map [US Drought Monitor, 2019] 4.7.1 HISTORY Drought has a long history in Gallatin County and all of Montana. Paleoclimate studies show extreme periods of drought hundreds of years ago. The periods of 200 -370 A.D., 700-850 A.D., and 1000-1200 A.D. are identified as long-term periods of drought in the Northern Great Plains. With the development of a more detailed weather monitoring network, climate records generally date back 100 years in Montana. 4 -32 Based on data from USDA and NOAA, Gallatin County has been in drought several times over the past decade. Table 4 -6 identifies and describes these periods. Figure 4 -7 shows the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the United States between 1895 and 1995. Table 4-6. Gallatin County Drought Periods since 1900 [National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2018] Time Period Description 1930’s The Dust Bowl created erosion problems and dust storms throughout the state. Mid 1950’s Extended period of reduced rainfall in Eastern and Central Montana. 1960’s Entire state affected, although the impact of this drought was lessened through better conservation practices such as strip cropping. 1970’s By May 1977, over 250,000 acres of Montana farmland was damaged by wind. The Sta began taking protective measures due to critically low hydroelectric power supplies. 1985 USDA drought disaster declaration. A typical 2,500-acre farm lost more than $100,000 in equity. state agriculture industry lost nearly $3 billion in equity. 2000’s Statewide drought disaster designations in 2000, 2001, and 2002. In 2004, Gallatin County was given a USDA Secretarial Disaster Designation. Most protective measures were conducted at t 2010’s Gallatin County received a USDA Secretarial Disaster Designation for drought in 2012 t Figure 4-7. Palmer Drought Severity Index (2000-2017) [Montana County Drought Status Maps, 2018] 4.7.2 PROBABILITY The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Paleoclimatology Program studies drought by analyzing records from tree rings, lake and dune sediments, archaeological remains, historical documents, and other environmental indicators to obtain a broader picture of the frequency of droughts in the United States. According to their research, “…paleoclimatic data suggest that droughts as severe as the 1950’s drought have occurred in central North America several times a century over the past 300- 400 years, and thus we should expect (and plan for) similar droughts in the future. The paleoclimatic record also indicates that droughts of a much greater duration than any in the 20th century have occurred in parts of North America as recently as 500 years ago.” (National Climatic Data Center, Paleoclimatology Branch, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html). Based on this research, the 1950s drought situation could be expected approximately once every 50 years, or a 20% chance , every 10 years. An extreme 4 -33 drought, worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl, has an approximate probability of occurring once every 500 years or a 2% chance of occurring each decade. It should be noted the probability of a major disaster in Big Sky and West Yellowstone is somewhat reduced, as the communities have little to no agriculture and thus significantly reduced water needs. 4.7.3 MAPPING Drought is regional hazard, and therefore, mapping at the county level is not appropriate here. The risk is assumed to be the same countywide. Mapping of current drought status is published by the US Drought Monitor weekly and the Montana Drought Advisory Committee monthly from March through October. 4.7.4 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Drought is most commonly associated with wildfire in Gallatin County. Dry conditions contribute to lower moisture content in the trees and plants that provide fuel for wildfires. An initial look at the driest years show that they do not directly coincide with severe wildfire seasons, however, the effects of drought can carry into the long term. One season of severely low precipitation may not be enough for extreme fire behavior; however, followed by several seasons of below normal precipitation, the conditions can contribute to an increased probability for significant wildfires. Drought often kills trees and plants that then become very dry fuels for wildfires years later. Short-term drought conditions can prime grasses on non- irrigated lands for grass fires and long-term drought conditions can additionally impact the heavier timber fuels for forest fires. Counterintuitively, in mountainous areas, such as those found in Gallatin County, drought can quickly be followed by flash flooding. Dry soils are not as permeable to water, particularly if the vegetation has been killed, and therefore, heavy rains run off faster than on moist soils with green vegetation and can more easily lead to flash flooding. Impacts to water supplies for both irrigation of crops and potable domestic use can be severe during periods of drought. In extreme cases, water may not be available for agricultural uses as determined by water right priority and/or physical availability. Municipal or other local water suppliers may need to ration potable water available for domestic uses. Blight and grasshopper infestations have a greater probability of occurring in drought conditions. Besides the hydrologic and agricultural impacts, drought can lead to severe dust storms and soil erosion affecting populations in non-agriculture settings . Other concerns include water temperatures for fish populations, wildlife health, plant ecology changes , hydroelectric power supplies, and public water sources. 4.7.5 VULNERABILITY 4.7.5.1 PROPERTY Generally, critical facilities are not affected directly by drought. Infrastructure relying on the water supply is the primary exception. If the water supply for public drinking water and sewer systems was threatened, those losses could total millions of dollars should equipment be damaged or outside water need to be shipped into the county. The probability of a drought of that significance is considered low. The most probable losses from drought are to the economy. Drought significantly impacts the agricultural economy and can additionally impact tourism. Gallatin County totaled over $91.8 million in crop sales in 4 -34 2015 [MT Dept. of Agriculture/USDA, 2017 ]. Crops are directly affected by drought and this economy could potentially be lost if drought conditions persist for a period of time. Crops aren’t the only aspect of agriculture affected by drought. Livestock can also be impacted. The pasture and food supply available to the animals is directly related to drought conditions. With over $ 48 million in livestock sales in 20 15 (MT Dept. of Agriculture/USDA, 2017) , this represents a substantial portion of the overall agricultural economy that is threatened by drought. Natural resources, and therefore tourism, are influenced by drought as well. As river and stream levels drop, fish populations and other natural resources are impacted. With fishin g and river recreational activities a very important part of the tourism industry in Gallatin County, those aspects of the economy can be threatened during extended periods of drought. POPULATION Since drought evolves slowly over time, the population has ample time to prepare for its effects and is warned accordingly. The greatest direct threat to the population from drought is through the drinking water supply. Should a drought affect the water available for public water systems or individual wells, the a vailability of clean drinking water could be compromised. This situation would require emergency actions and could possibly overwhelm the local government and financial resources. The more urbanized areas such as Bozeman and Belgrade are at increased risk, due to concentrated water demand. ECONOMY Agriculture is a significant part of the Gallatin County economy and culture. Drought severely threatens the agriculture industry when it causes a loss of forage, feed, or water supplies. These los ses often impact other industries, such as farm supply and transportation services, which depend on local agriculture. The economy can be further impacted by drought through reduced tourism. As drought reduces natural water supplies, fish populations and other natural resources are impacted, which play a large part in drawing tourists and recreationalists to the area. IMPACT OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Future development’s greatest impact on the drought hazard would be through possibly limiting ground water resources. Fortunately, public systems, individual wells, and septic systems are carefully monitored and regulated by Montana Department of Environmental Quality. Therefore, the impact of future development with respect to drought is considered low. 4.7.6 DATA LIMITATIONS The greatest data limitation with drought is the inability to pinpoint the start and end of drought periods and the associated correlation with economic losses. An online database of historical USDA drought declarations and the associated losses would prove beneficial in documenting the effects of drought and directing mitigation activities. 4.7.7 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (34) (13 -39) Belgrade High Moderate High Moderate High (38) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (29) (7-52) Bozeman High Moderate High Moderate High (42) (10-42) 4 -35 District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Manhattan/Three For High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (37) (6-37) West Yellowstone Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (19) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankin gs. 4.8 EARTHQUAKE 4.8.1 DESCRIPTION One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe earthquake and its terrible aftereffects. An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time. For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. Montana is ranked fourth in the United States for seismicity and has many faults, primarily in the mountainous parts of the state. Yellowstone National Park, within and to the south of Gallatin County, is an active geothermal area with approximately 2,000 earthquakes each year. Gallatin County lies in the middle of the most active areas and has experienced significant earthquakes over the last century . Earthquakes can damage property and infrastructure very rapidly and significantly with little warning, severely impacting those close to the epicenter and being felt for hundreds of miles. 4.8.2 HISTORY Since 1900, 17 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater have occurred within 100 miles of Gallatin County, as shown in Table 4-7, although several of these events can be considered foreshocks or aftershocks to a single main earthquake (e.g., the Hebgen Lake earthquakes that occurred on August 18 -19, 1959). The closest earthquakes to southern Gallatin County were the Hebgen Lake and Yellowstone Park earthquakes, and to northern Gallatin County, the Clarkston and Lombard earthquakes. Table 4-7. Earthquakes Magnitude 5.5 or greater within 100 miles of Gallatin County, Montana [US Geological Survey (USGS), 2017] Date Approximate Location Magnitude 7/06/2017 Lincoln 5.8 7/25/2005 Dillon 5.6 12/8/1976 Yellowstone, Gallatin Co. 5.5 6/30/1975 Yellowstone, Gallatin Co. 5.9 10/21/1964 Hebgen Lake 5.6 8/19/1959 Hebgen Lake 6.0 8/18/1959 Hebgen Lake 7.5 8/18/1959 Hebgen Lake 6.5 8/18/1959 Hebgen Lake 6.0 4 -36 Date Approximate Location Magnitude 8/18/1959 Hebgen Lake 5.6 8/18/1959 Hebgen Lake 6.3 11/23/1947 Virginia City 6.1 10/31/1935 Helena 6.0 10/19/1935 Helena 6.3 10/12/1935 Helena 5.9 2/16/1929 Lombard 5.6 6/28/1925 Clarkston 6.6 The Clarkston earthquake caused relatively light damages due to the rural nature of the area at that time. Most of the damages were confined to Manhattan, Logan, Three Forks, and Lombard in Gallatin and Broadwater Counties. The earthquake was felt from the North Dakota line to Washington and from the Canadian border to central Wyoming. Un -reinforced brick structures su ffered the greatest damages. Bozeman felt five distinct shocks. Pavement and buildings sustained cracks up to an inch wide. Mines in Jardine in neighboring Park County were feared to have been damaged. Bozeman police reported the tower of a high building s waying with many people fainting and rushing to the streets. A train from Livingston was sent to rescue passengers from trains trapped by landslides near Lombard. In Clyde Park in Park County, the stock of tinware at Jack O’Leary’s store fell off the shelv es. Three Forks church, following 6.6 magnitude Clarkston earthquake, June 1925. Photo by J.T. Pardee (courtesy USGS). The initial Hebgen Lake earthquake on August 18, 1959 is the most significant earthquake to have occurred in the region over the past 100 years. This magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred about 30 miles from Gardiner and about 70 miles from Bozeman. This surface rupturing earthquake changed the geology of the Hebgen Lake area and triggered a major landslide (80 million tons of rock). Th e result was the creation of a new lake, Earthquake Lake, on the Madison River and State Highway 287 was buried. Twenty - eight people perished and roadway and timber damages totaled over $11 million. The quake was felt in 8 states and 3 Canadian provinces [USGS, 1976]. The North Entrance to Yellowstone National Park did have some landslides blocking roadways, but all were cleared within 2 days. Also damaged was the Golden Gate above Mammoth Hot Springs near Gallatin County. Estimated damages in the Park were about $2 million. 4 -37 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake. Photo courtesy USGS, Idaho ( Hadley, J.B. ) 4.8.3 PROBABILITY Large and damaging earthquakes are infrequent events. Gallatin County experiences many small earthquakes every month, but they are not detectable by humans and only by instrumentation. The geography of Gallatin County is such that it lies within several categories of seismic source zones. The most active is the Northern Intermountain Seismic Belt to the north and west. This region is estimated to have a recurrence rate of 3.84 years for a magnitude 5 or greater earthquake, 22.6 years for a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake, and 133 years for a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake [Wong et. al., 2005]. 4.8.4 MAPPING Research through the US GS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project has resulted in peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps related to the probability of seismic shaking. The map for Gallatin County (Figure 4 -8 8 ) shows the strength of seismic shaking that has a 2% probability of being exceeded in a 50-year period. The strength of shaking is measured as a percentage of the acceleration of gravity (%g). Generally, a PGA of above 20%g would result in major damage. As Figure 4-88 s hows, the entire c ounty is at risk of experiencing an earthquake resulting in major damage, though the area surrounding West Yellowstone is particularly at risk. History has shown that significant earthquakes (up to magnitude 6.5) may occur anywhere throughout the Intermo untain Seismic Belt, even in areas where young faults are not recognized. Examples of damaging earthquakes for which no known surface fault was recognized include the 1925 Clarkston earthquake (magnitude 6.6) and the 1935 Helena earthquakes (magnitude 5.9 -6.3 ). 4.8.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS The seismic action of earthquakes often triggers other events. Landslides are quite common in Montana with large earthquakes. During the winter, avalanches can also be triggered. Dam breaks and landslides on water ways may cause flooding. The rupture of gas lines can result in large-scale urban fires, particularly if power outages or broken water mains disrupt water supplies. Any number of additional incidents may occur due to the failure of infrastructure such as hazardous material spills and large-scale transportation accidents. All these associated factors contribute to the severity of the earthquake event. 4 -38 4.8.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY Since the probability and likely strength of an earthquake varies across the county, the threat to critical facilities can be assessed based on their respective geographic locations. Structural assessments of the individual facilities would further determine the seismic stability of tha t structure. Based on geography, the critical facilities near the fault lines can be considered the most vulnerable. All critical facilities are at risk from earthquakes in Gallatin County. In addition, un-reinforced masonry construction is particularly vulnerable to seismic shaking. Therefore, any critical facilities with, or within close proximity to un- reinforced masonry can be considered at greatest risk. Two HAZUS -MH earthquake models were used to estimate the extent of damage caused by an earthquake in Gallatin County. The first scenario considered a magnitude 6.5 earthquake on the Bridger Fault, which runs along the base of the Bridger Mountains. The second scenario considered a magnitude 7.5 earthquake on the Madison Fault, which is located west of Hebgen Lake. The difference in earthquake magnitudes modeled (6.5 and 7.5) reflects the mapped differences in PGA that could result from an earthquake having a 2% exceedance probability in a 50-year period on each of the faults (30%g on the Bridger Fault and 50%g on the Madison Fault, Figure 4 -8 ). Based on the HAZUS -MH run results , Table 4-8 shows the functionality of critical facilities included in the inventory following an earthquake event. 4 -39 Figure 4-8. Earthquake Hazard in Gallatin County 4 -40 These results highlight how a larger earthquake (a magnitude 7.5 e arthquake is 10 times larger than a magnitude 6.5 e arthquake, however it is nearly 32 times stronger in energy release , USGS - https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/how_much_bigger.php ) does not necessarily result in greater impacts to critical facilities (structures) due to the considerable difference in distance of the two faults from population centers in Gallatin County. Nonetheless , an earthquake occurring on the Madison Fault would be expected to have substantially greater impacts in the so uthern portion of the county (West Yellowstone area) versus the more populated Gallatin Valley simply due to its closer proximity to the fault. Table 4-8. Critical Facility Functionality1 Following an Earthquake Critical Facility Type 6.5 Earthquake – Bridger Fault 7.5 Earthquake – Madison Fault Hospital 64% on Day 1 90% on Day 7 99% on Day 90 93% on Day 1 98% on Day 7 99% on Day 90 Fire Stations 82% on Day 1 84% on Day 1 Law Enforcement Stations 70% on Day 1 81% on Day 1 Schools 73% (avg.) on Day 1 Range: 37 -99% 86% (avg.) on Day 1 Range: 51 -99% 1 In this table functionality is defined as a percentage of full (100%) functionality of the facility at the specified time interval (number of days) following the earthquake event. Day 1 is considered the same day that the earthquake occurs. The HAZUS-MH 4.2 database for Gallatin County includes infrastructure assets (highways, bridges, airports, pipelines, etc.) valued at over $2.7 billion. The estimated infrastructure losses that would occur for the modeled earthquake scenarios are shown in Table 4 -9 . Table 4-9. Estimated Infrastructure Losses Following an Earthquake (6.5 magnitude Bridger Fault, 7.5 magnitude Madison Fault) Infrastructure System Bridger Fault Economic Losses Bridger Fault Damages Madison Fault Economic Losses Madison Fault Damages Highway $2,847,000 $1,461,000 Bus $3,500 $214,000 Airport $7,480,000 $5,160,000 Potable Water $6,121,000 849 leaks 212 breaks 600 households without service on Day 1 $1,550,000 284 leaks 71 breaks 6 households without service on Day 1 Wastewater $37,805,000 426 leaks 107 breaks $8,213,000 143 leaks 36 breaks Natural Gas $657,000 146 leaks 37 breaks $220,000 49 leaks 12 breaks Total $54,913,500 $16,818,000 Many structures, including critical facilities, within Gallatin County have not been seismically assessed. Depending on the construction, those homes, businesses, and critical facilities may not be structured to withstand seismic shaking. Downtown Bozeman also has many non-reinforced , masonry buildings that house businesses. Estimates of building damages generated by HAZUS-MH are outlined in Table 4-10 and Table 4 -11 . 4 -41 Table 4-10. Expected Building Damage by Occupancy during 6.5 Magnitude Earthquake on Bridger Fault Type Slight Damage Moderate Extensive Complete Agriculture 63 41 15 6 Commercial 518 440 179 66 Industrial 167 156 67 25 Other Residential 1,397 1,315 680 188 Religion 42 28 10 3 Single Family 7,198 1,834 115 27 Total 9,385 3,814 1,066 315 Table 4-11. Expected Building Damage by Occupancy during 7.5 Magnitude Earthquake on Madison Fault Type Slight Damage Moderate Extensive Complete Agriculture 30 13 2 1 Commercial 274 135 28 3 Industrial 94 50 10 1 Other Residential 920 537 87 6 Religion 21 9 2 1 Single Family 2,600 266 8 2 Total 3,939 1,010 137 14 POPULATION The population would have little or, most likely , no warning prior to an earthquake. Most casualties in a large earthquake in Gallatin County would be anticipated with building collapse, roadway failures, falling objects, and landslides. The number of actual casualties will be dependent on a variety of factors including proximity to the epicenter, time of day, and magnitude, among others. The HAZUS -MH runs estimate up to 340 people injured and 20 casualties in the magnitude 6.5 earthquake event on Bridger Fault depending on time of day, and up to 30 people injured and 5 casualties in a magnitude 7.5 earthquake event on Madison Fault. ECONOMY The impacts of a strong earthquake in Gallatin County could be far reaching. Economic, physical and functional damages to businesses, particularly downtown businesses in non-reinforced masonry structures, could be substantial. Industries such as construction, however, may see a recovery related boom following an earthquake. The HAZUS -MH runs estimate the losses from capital stock, including inventory, lost wages, and lost rental income would total $584,560,000 after a magnitude 6.5 earthquake along the Bridger fault, and $105,490,000 after a magnitude 7.5 earthquake along the Madison fault. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Any future development in Gallatin County is at risk for earthquake damages. Fortunately, construction standards for seismic stability have improved over the past 100 years. Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan, Three Forks, and West Yellowstone are the only jurisdictions within Gallatin County that have a building code and inspection program. Other areas of the county are under the state building code that for most single -family homes is only subject to electrical, plumbing, and septic inspections. Much of the new Gallatin County construction is taking place in the areas near the identified and active f aults. Should an earthquake occur on these faults, the future development that occurs will be in the highest hazard area. 4 -42 4.8.7 DATA LIMITATIONS Since earthquakes are a relatively rare event, perhaps the greatest challenge is understanding the true probability and damages possible. More research is needed to identify fault areas and develop digital data for use in the HAZUS -MH modules. Improving the modeling and assessing individual facilities will allow for a more accurate vulnerability assessment. 4.8.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impact Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Moderate High Moderate High (32) (13 -39) Belgrade Moderate High High High High (33) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (28) (7-52) Bozeman Moderate High High High High (34) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate (28) (6-37) West Yellowstone High High High High High (48) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankin gs. 4.9 ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS 4.9.1 DESCRIPTION As it relates to this plan, an environmental hazard can be classified as any substance which once released to or from the natural environment has the potential to adversely impact human health. The hazard can be human-caused, as i n the case where raw sewage from a damaged septic system contaminates groundwater, or occur as part of a natural process, such as when wildfires reduce ambient air quality. 4.9.2 HISTORY Increased incidences of large wildfires across the western U.S. over the last 20 years has resulted in an increased frequency of poor air quality days in Gallatin County. The effects of wildfire smoke on air quality tend to occur during the peak wildfire season of July – October. Another phenomenon that significantly affected air quality across the county was the 1980 volcanic eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington. Up to 1 cm of ash fell over portions of the county. 4.9.3 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE The probability of an environmental hazard occurring is difficult to qua ntify, however one can occur almost anywhere at any time. Similarly, the magnitude and intensity of an environmental hazard will largely be driven by the scale of the event that caused the hazard. For example, a small wildfire could cause poor air quality for a short duration over a relatively small area. Conversely, a massive wildfire or volcanic eruption may cause widespread air quality impacts that affect the entire county and beyond. 4 -43 NASA satellite image from September 3, 2017 showing smoke across western Montana and much of the country. Screenshot from NOAA satellite video, September 3, 2017. Smoke affecting air quality across all of Gallatin County. 4.9.4 MAPPING Environmental hazards can occur anywhere humans are able to interact with the environment. Thus, the potential is considered present throughout the entire c ounty. 4.9.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Environmental hazards can occur as a result of almost any hazard imaginable. Earthquakes or severe weather may cause infrastructure to fail, which releases contamination into the environment. A wildfire or volcano could contaminate air or water resources. Similarly, an aviation, ground transportation, or railroad accident could cause a hazardous materials release which poses an environmental hazard. 4.9.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY Critical facilities and infrastructure are not expected to be physically impacted by environmental hazards, though the functionality could c ertainly be impacted. Erosion following a wildfire can result in large sediment loads in drinking water sources, which could quickly overwhelm the ability of drinking water treatment plants to treat the water to meet drinking water standards. POPULATION T he general population can be easily and almost entirely affected by poor air quality due to its necessity for life function. Large portions of the population can also be affected by poor water quality, particularly if large -scale water distribution systems are impacted. ECONOMY Poor air and water quality can affect almost all commercial activities, potentially having a substantial economic impact. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Future development can be impacted by impacts to air and water quality. 4 -44 4.9.7 DATA LIMITATIONS Data limitations include a lack of historical data, and inability to track environmental hazards such a septic contamination. 4.9.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (26) (13 -39) Belgrade High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (33) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (21) (7-52) Bozeman High Moderate High Moderate High (34) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (28) (6-37) West Yellowstone Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankin gs. 4.10 FLOODING 4.10.1 DESCRIPTION Flooding is the inundation of a normally dry area with water. Riverine flooding occurs on rivers, creeks, and streams as water levels rise be it from excessive precipitation, rapid snowmelt, dam failure, or ice jams. Unlike riverine flooding, flash flooding can happen anywhere. As the name implies, flash flooding happens quickly after intense rains, dam or ice jam breaks, or rapid runoff in mountainous or recently burned areas. Urban flooding is the result of development and the gro und’s decreased ability to absorb the rainfall. Flooding from groundwater does not typically result in floodwaters at the surface, but occasionally basements and crawlspaces can be flooded by excessive groundwater. Flooding in Gallatin County normally occurs during periods of excessive rainfall or snowmelt. The mountainous terrain in Gallatin County is a contributing factor to rapid flood development and snowmelt problems. The most recent, widespread flooding eve nt across the county occurred in 2011. Since then there has been a steady increase in the amount of development near streams and rivers. Associated with this development are concerns for public health and safety when the next flooding event occurs. FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT The Montana Floodplain and Floodway Management Act [Montana Code Annotated, Title 76, Chapter 5 ] requires political subdivisions to adopt land use regulations that regulate the use and development of property within the regulated floodways and floodplains. Gallatin County Floodplain Regulations were first adopted in 1984 and most recently updated in December 2017. The regulations are administered through the Gallatin County Planning Department. Within the City of Bozeman, FEMA designated floodplains and floodways are managed by the City’s Floodplain Administrator within the Engineering Dept. The City’s Unified Development Code (UDO), 4 -45 Chapter 38, Division 38.600, provides guidance on administration of the Floodplain Regulations and provides land use and permitting requirements. The City of Three Forks also manages floodplains within its jurisdiction. The City’s Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance provides direction on floodplain management and permitting requirements. Riverine flooding problems are managed through a national insurance system called the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) administered by FEMA . Gallatin County and the Cities of Bozeman, Belgrade, and Three Forks, as well as the Town of Manhattan are all NFIP participants. FEMA cond ucts a Flood Insurance Study (FIS) of a region to identify the community's risk levels. The FIS includes statistical data for river flow, rainfall, topographic surveys, as well as hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. After examining the FIS data, FEMA create s Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) delineating the different areas of flood risk. Land areas that are at high risk for flooding are called Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), or floodplains. These maps are certainly not all inclusive and other flood prone areas may exist. The FIRM maps in Gallatin County were recently digitized and the new digital FIRMs went into effect on September 2, 2011. In 2012, FEMA, DNRC, and Gallatin County began a floodplain mapping update project for the West Gallatin River and Bozeman Creek and its tributaries to more accurately model these areas and show flood risks . The project’s draft floodplain maps will eventually replace existing floodplain maps for the West Gallatin River, Bozeman Creek, Mathew Bird Creek, Nash Spring Cr eek, Flat Creek, Figgins Creek and the Mill Ditch Diversion. The project utilize d high-accuracy topographic information, updated hydrologic data and modern engineering methods to ensure the communities have the best available data . Technical data for the West Gallatin and Bozeman Creek and tributaries floodplain mapping project is available for download on the City of Bozeman's file share site . Data including hydrologic analyses, flood profiles, floodway data tables, and HEC-RAS modeling files are available. New FIRM maps from this project are expected to be finalized in late 2019 after a technical and public review process. Residents of Gallatin County, Bozeman, Belgrade, Three Forks, or Manhattan have the option to purchase flood insurance through the NFIP. As of February 2018, there are 172 policies in force covering over $47 million in property in unincorporated areas of Gallatin County . The City of Bozeman has 99 policies in force, covering over $24 million in property. The City of Three Forks has 76 policies in force, covering over $14 million in property. No policies were in force in the City of Belgrade or Town of Manhattan. Any NFIP- insured structure that has had at least two paid flood losses of more than $1,000 each in any 10 -year period since 1987 is classified as a repetitive loss structure [FEMA, 2018c]. FEMA currently lists one structure in Gallatin County as being a repetitive lo ss property for flooding. This is a residential structure located within an unincorporated area of the county. 4.10.2 HISTORY Gallatin County has not had a large history of significant flooding. The most recent, widespread flooding event occurred in late -May 20 11 as a result o f heavy rainfall and rapid melting of snowpack . Table 4 -12 lists some of the historical flooding events in the county; this data is gathered from the Flood Insurance Studies for the un- incorporated areas of Gallatin County, the City of Bozeman, and the City of Three Forks , and media reports for the more recent events (2011, 2014). Flood flows on the streams studied in detail wer e caused primarily by snowmelt or snowmelt and rain during April, May, and June. Flooding can also be caused by ice jams forming in the winter. This problem is especially prevalent on the lower Gallatin and Madison River s near Three Forks . 4 -46 Street flooding in Bozeman. Photo courtesy Gallatin County Emergency Management Table 4-12. Gallatin County Historical Flood Events. Date Location Cause April 1893 Bozeman Creek Rainfall/Warm Temps April 1937 Bozeman Creek Rainfall/Warm Temps April 1947 Bozeman Creek Chinook Wind April 1948 Bozeman Creek Heavy Snow/Warm Temps July 1958 Bozeman Creek Rain Event August 1958 Bozeman Creek Rain Event March 1960 Bozeman Creek Warm Winds/ Rapid Snow Melt June 1969 Bozeman Creek Rain Event May 1970 Bozeman Creek Warm Winds/ Rapid Snow Melt January 1974 Bozeman Creek Warm Winds/ Rapid Snow Melt June 1975 Bozeman Creek Warm Winds/ Rapid Snow Melt April 1977 Bozeman Creek Warm Winds/ Rapid Snow Melt Mar-Apr 1952 West Gallatin River Rapid Snow Melt June 1959 West Gallatin River Rapid Snow Melt February 1963 West Gallatin River Warm Temps/Ice Jams May – June 1970 West Gallatin River High Water June – July 1971 West Gallatin River High Water June 1974 West Gallatin River Rapid Snow Melt 1899 Jefferson River Rapid Snow Melt 1908 Jefferson River Rapid Snow Melt 1927 Jefferson River Rapid Snow Melt 1948 Jefferson River Rapid Snow Melt 1949 Madison River Ice Jam January 1997 West Gallatin / Bozeman Creek Rapid Snow Melt / Warm Temps May 2008 Flooding along Gallatin River tributaries Rapid Snow Melt with rain May 2011 Flooding along Bozeman and Bridger Creeks and East Gallatin River Rapid Snow Melt with rain March 2014 Town of Manhattan Rapid Snow Melt / Warm Temps 4 -47 4.10.4 PROBABILITY Flooding probabilities are represented spatially via floodplain maps . The 100-year floodplain has a 1% probability of being exceeded in any given year. Probabilities are typically presented as exceedance probabilities using discharges (in cubic feet per se cond) at various locations. Table 4 -13 shows the discharges for the stream gauges in and around Gallatin County. 2008 flooding in Outlaw Subdivision north of Bozeman. Photo courtesy Gallatin County Emergency Mgmt. 4 -48 Table 4-13. Peak Discharges and Exceedance Probabilities for Streams in Gallatin County Location Probability of Exceedance 1% 2% 10% 100 -year event 50-year even 10 -year event Bozeman Creek at Nash Rd. 765 cfs 642 cfs 405 cfs Bridger Creek 1260 cfs 1090 cfs 725 cfs East Gallatin River 3300 cfs 2950 cfs 2190 cfs West Gallatin River at Shed ’s Bridge 12150 cfs 11200 cfs 8700 cfs West Gallatin River at Interstate 90 12350 cfs 11400 cfs 8850 cfs Jefferson River at Three Forks 27600 cfs 25000 cfs 18300 cfs Madison River at Three Forks 12000 cfs 10800 cfs 8000 cfs 4.10.5 MAPPING D igital floodplain maps for the county were completed in September 2011 and can be downloaded at: http://gallatincomt.virtualtownhall.net/Public_Documents/gallatincomt_plandept/1FLOODPLAIN/FEMAn ew/FEMAmapsNew. These maps cover many of the larger waterways across the county. Older, paper maps exist showing the 100 -year floodplain in other parts of the county. Preliminary maps for the West Gallatin and Bozeman Creek mapping re-studies (described above in Section 4.10.1.1) can be accessed at: http://dnrc.mt.gov/divisions/water/operations/floodplain-management/gallatin/maps When all comments and appeals are resolved, the maps are expected to be finalized and become effective in late 2019. 4.10.6 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Excessive rainfall and heavy snows associated with flooding can be related to other hazards. Landslides and mudslides are often attributed to saturated soils and floo ding. Flood conditions in and around dams can also be a factor in causing dam failures. During the summer, severe thunderstorms can bring heavy rain, especially if they are slow-moving, a s well as wind, hail, and tornadoes. T he runoff can cause sediment problems in addition to the flooding. T hese additional hazards can be factors during flood events. 4.10.7 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY Between Gallatin County, Bozeman and Three Forks, 863 structures are in mapped floodplains. Winter flooding near Gallatin Gateway due to ice jam in Gallatin River. Photo courtesy Gallatin County Emergency Management. 4 -49 POPULATION Due to the terrain and hazard areas in Gallatin County, the population is considered at moderate risk for riverine flooding. Some warning does exist, particularly with riverine flooding, but rapidly occurring events may leave the population unprepared and in a dangerous situation. The impacts from flooding could be even greater in areas downstream of wildfire burn areas. ECONOMY Flo oding can have a significant impact on the local economy. Agricultural losses may occur due to damaged crops, planting or harvesting delays, and injured livestock. Additionally, flooding can damage loc al businesses and cause closures. Flooding which impacts roads may slow commerce or deter tourism. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Gallatin County , Bozeman, Belgrade and Three Forks have stringent floodplain regulations that are enforced. The floodplain regulations are in place to promote the public health, safety and general welfare, to minimize flood losses in areas subject to flood hazards and to promote wise use of the floodplain. These regulations are updated regularly (Gallatin County Ordinance No. 2017-011 (2017), Bozeman Ordinance 38.600(2020), Belgrade City Code 10, Three Forks City Code 12). 4.10.8 DATA LIMITATIONS Using the default H AZUS -MH building inventory provides general estimates of risk. A more refined analysis , using local building inventory , would produce more accurate results ; this was partially accounted for by using a modified dasymetric dataset, however site -specific data will always be best. An additional limitation lies in the HAZUS -MH flood model itself. It is a generalized model designed to work across the county. As a result of this, local characteristics such as updated gage data, channelization or bridge and culvert construction is not accounted for in the model. Small dams are also likely to be missed in the H AZUS -MH model depending on the resolution of the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) used. 4.10.9 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (25) (13 -39) Belgrade High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (30) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) (7-52) Bozeman High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (33) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (33) (6-37) West Yellowstone Low Low Low Low Low (6) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determi ne an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankings. 4 -50 4.11 GROUND TRANSPORTATION ACCIDENT 4.11.1 DESCRIPTION In Gallatin County, a ground transportation accident, for the purposes of this plan, includes any large-scale vehicular accident. The most likely locations for an incident of this magnitude would be on Interstate 90 or on Highway 191. Interstate 90 crosses northern Gallatin County in an east- west direction. This Interstate is widely used by large trucks, area residents, and distance travelers. Highway 191, south of the Interstate, connects Interstate 90 to West Yellowstone and Yellowstone National Park and is used by tourists visiting the park, local residents, and as a shipping route to the p ark and points south into Wyoming and Idaho. Interstate 90 at Manhattan , MT Photo courtesy M. Rotar. 4.11.2 HISTORY Many motor vehicle accidents occur each year in Gallatin County and invariably fatalities do occur, however, a major (mass casualty) incident requiring a significant emergency response only occurs on occasion. Between 2008 and 2017, the Montana Dept. of Transportation (MDT) reported 98 roadway fatalities in Gallatin County, or an average of 9.8 deaths per year over this period. During this same 10- year period, 505 serious injuries were reported [MDT, 2018] involving motor vehicle accidents in the county . Several vehicle accidents involving three or more fatalities were recorded in Gallatin County during the period 2000-2016. These have included multiple accidents on Highway 191 in Gallatin Canyon, and an accident on Amsterdam Road west of Belgrade in 2003 that killed four occupants of a driver’s education vehicle (3 students, 1 adult instructor). 4.11.3 PROBABILITY The probability of a major ground transportation accident is considered moderate based on the historical occurrence and recent call increases. Fire d epartments in Gallatin County have seen a significant jump in the number of motor vehicle responses in the 1980’s to where we are today. Therefore, despite a relatively low history of major ground transportation accidents, the increase in motor vehicle accident responses by the local fire departments leads to the assumption that the probability of a major ground transportation accident is increasing. The probability of a significant accident is further increased during frequent snowstorms, periods of poor visibility with blowing snow or smoke, or during times of heavy tourist traffic. 4.11.4 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS The additional hazards associated with a ground transportation accident are the obvious concerns for hazardous material releases. Any ground transportation accident involving the transport of hazardous materials increases the complexity and potential damages from that accident. Some hazards may even cause the accident such as winter storms, wildfires, earthquakes, and strong winds. Almost any hazard can cause or magnify a ground transportation mass casualty incident. 4 -51 4.11.5 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY The critical facilities are not anticipated to be impacted by a ground transportation accident. A critical facility could be damaged or made inaccessible from the impact of an accident, but the likelihood is considered low and uniform throughout the county. Potential losses from a ground transportation accident include vehicular losses, property damages, and roadway damage. Should vehicle fluids or hazardous materials seep into a water supply, that water body would also be threatened. Typically, most losses from a ground transportation accident are covered by insurance. For a large incident, the greatest expenditures would like ly be in responding agency costs. POPULATION Population losses are highly likely in ground transportation accidents. A ground transportation accident has the potential to kill and injure large numbers of people. Any accident involving a bus , or many vehicles has the potential for casualties numbering from 10 to 100. Therefore, the potential for large population losses is considered moderate. Indirect population impacts could occur in the Big Sky area due to limited accessibility or inability to rapidly evacuate the area as a result of a ground transportation accident. ECONOMY The local economy in certain portions of the county could be significantly impacted by a ground transportation accident. The Big Sky area would experience more economic disruption than other areas, as the community is accessible only via US Highway 191 and State Highway 64. Any ground transportation accident on either of these highways can temporarily isolate Big Sky from regular vehicular access. Ground transportation accidents frequently occur in the section of highway (US 191) extending from Gallatin Gateway to West Yellowstone. A minor accident in this stretch can cause road closures for up to several hours, while a major accident could potentially cause a closure for several days. Any closure has the potential to reduce traffic to and through Big Sky, which could reduce commerce activity. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Future development, except for the associated increase in vehicles in the area, will not impact or will just slightly increase the probability of a large ground transportation accident. Otherwise, the specific locations of where development occurs should not significantly affect the vulnerabilities from this hazard. 4.11.6 DATA LIMITATIONS Without much history of ground transportation accidents with mass casualties in Gallatin County, the ability to assign a probability and possible losses to this hazard is difficult. This hazard profile will always remain somewhat general unless a detailed transportation study is conducted countywide. 4.11.7 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County High Low Low Low Moderate (23) (13-39) Belgrade Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (16) (6-38) Big Sky High Low Moderate Moderate High (32) (7-52) Bozeman High Low Low Low Moderate (20) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For High Low Low Low Moderate (21) (6-37) West Yellowstone High Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (30) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankings. 4 -52 4.12 HAZARDOUS MATERIALS RELEASE 4.12.1 DESCRIPTION A hazardous material release is the contamination of the environment (i.e. air, water, soil) by any material that because of its quantity, conc entration, or physical or chemical characteristics threatens human health, the environment, or property. An accidental or intentional release of materials could produce a health hazard to those in the immediate area, downwind, and/or downstream. A hazardous material release can come from a fixed facility or via its transportation through the area. A major fuel pipeline, the Yellowstone Pipeline, runs through northern Gallatin County, just north of Bozeman and Interstate 90 (refer to Figure 3 -9 in Section 3, page 3-21). This pipeline transports refined petroleum products between Billings, MT and Spokane, WA. Should an explosion or leak occur on this pipeline, a large hazardous material release of the fuel and/or fumes could result and threaten the population and property. Pipeline demarcation warning sign. The most likely locations for a transportation-related hazardous materials release are on Interstate 90, Highway 191, or the active railways. Interstate 90 crosses northern Gallatin County in an east-west direction. This Interstate is widely used by vehicles transporting hazardous materials. Highway 191, south of the Interstate, connects Interstate 90 to Yellowstone National Park and is used as a shipping route to the park and points south into Wyoming and Idaho. In September 2006 a semi-tanker hauling propane overturned near the Lava Lake trailhead on Highway 191, forcing closure of the road for nearly 8 hours. For the most part, the railroad parallels Interstate 90, except for short segments through Bozeman, Belgrade and Manhattan. In the western part of the county the railroad bifurcates at Logan; one line continues to the northwest past Trident and Clarkston, along the Missouri River, before exiting into Broadwater County, the other line goes through Three Forks and continues southwest to Willow Creek and Sappington J unction. The railroad is owned and operated by Montana Rail Link. If a transportation- related release occurred near populated areas or water supplies, serious human impacts could result. 4.12.2 PROBABILITY The probability of a hazardous materials release can only be realistically assessed qualitatively. The history of events in Gallatin County is moderate with sporadic events over the past 20 years, none of which have resulted in a disaster declaration. The exposure, however, is high with Interstate 90 and an active railroad passing within close proximity to critical facilities and concentrated population in Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan and Three Forks. 4.12.3 MAPPING As with many hazards, the degree of risk to a s pecific area is hard to quantify, however, data layers from the 2018 HAZUS -MH model runs were used to visually show the areas that have concentrations of 4 -53 hazardous materials and areas that would most likely be affected in a hazardous materials incident. Of course, the entire county is at some risk for a hazardous material release . 4.12.4 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Hazardous material releases can be accidental or intentional. Accidental causes can be due to a ground, air, or railroad accident. Almost any other hazard event may also lead to a hazardous material release. Destruction of a facility or transportation infrastructure may lead to a hazardous material release. Examples include earthquake, flooding, wildfire, avalanche, landslide, dam failure, severe thunderstorm, tornado, wind, structure fire, or even a volcano. Intentional releases may be related to terrorism or a domestic disturbance. A hazardous material release, if severe enough, could lead to civil unrest, a fiery explosion, or utility failure. Hazardous material releases could likely aggravate almost any other hazard. Hazardous Materials incident training. Photos courtesy Gallatin County Semi-truck rollover and fuel spill. Emergency Management 4.12.5 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY The buffers around the highways and railways represent the areas that have an enhanced risk for a hazardous materials release. Two buffer zones were established, 0.25 miles and 0.50 miles from the route. These buffer zones were chosen based on a minimum evacuation radius that would be established for a typical hazardous substance release. Of course, the actual evacuation zone for an event is highly dependent on many factors including wind speed, wind dire ction, material released, and quantity released. Like many of the other hazards, the hazard area in an actual event will not involve the entire area at risk, but more likely only a small section of the identified area, and therefore, a small percentage of the critical facilities. Based on these buffer zones, it was determined that a good portion of the Gallatin County critical infrastructure is at greatest risk. Since the Interstate 90 and the Montana Rail Link corridor hauls more hazardous materials than the other transportation routes, the highest risk can be assumed to be in that area. Generally , the only structures affected by a hazardous materials release are the structures that house the material on a daily basis. Fortunately, unless an explosion is present with the release, structures are typically not damaged in a hazardous materials release. A large-scale release in an area with numerous structures will put those structures and contents at risk, however the structure itself will generally withstand the event unharmed. POPULATION The population impacts from a hazardous materials release are more significant than the potential structure losses. Depending on the material, the health impacts to the public can be long and short term. 4 -54 Should a release occu r in Bozeman, the population impacts would be much greater than if one occurred in a more rural area. In a hazardous materials release, those in the immediate area would have little to no warning, whereas, the population in the dispersion path may have som e time to evacuate, depending on the weather conditions and material released. Many factors will determine the true hazard area in a transportation related hazardous material release. The worst-case scenario would be a release along the railroad near any of the populated areas. Given this scenario, a conservative estimate of 1,000 structures could be directly affected and/or evacuated. With an estimated 2.5 people per structures (and possibly higher for downtown Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan or Three Forks), up to 2,500 people could be at risk in such an event. ECONOMY Temporary business closures may occur with hazardous material releases. In cases where the release causes an explosion or fire, the closure period may be considerable. Any hazardous materials release which impacts surface water has the potential to impact the tourism economy. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Much of the future development expected to occur is off the major road and rail networks in the county. The potential, however, does exist for development of agricultural lands bordering the highways and railroad, particularly in the unincorporated parts of Gallatin County. Very few restrictions are in place to prevent development in these areas. 4.12.6 DATA LIMITATIONS Understanding when, where, and what substances are mostly likely to be released in a hazardous materials incident is the greatest limitation in analyzing this hazard. Hazardous substances pass through Gallatin County with such regularity and without incident that fully describing how a release may occur and what population and structures may be affected is not possible. A study of the number and types of hazardous materials passing through Gallatin County would help better frame this profile. A complete database of hazardous materials sites would also allow for more accurate estimates of potential losses and population impacts. Digital mapping of the fixed facilities would allow for a more detailed analysis of vulnerabilities from a release at those facilities. 4.12.7 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (23) (13 -39) Belgrade Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (18) (6-38) Big Sky High Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (26) (7-52) Bozeman Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (22) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (23) (6-37) West Yellowstone Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (24) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . 4 -55 The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determi ne an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankings. 4.13 RAILROAD ACCIDENT 4.13.1 DESCRIPTION Montana Rail Link (MRL) operates on a railroad that crosses Gallatin County in an east-west direction, roughly parallel to Interstate 90, and pass ing through the Cities of Bozeman, Belgrade, and Three Forks and the Town of Manhattan. MRL is a Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Class II regional railroad with 9 37 route miles serving over 125 local businesses in the states of Montana, Idaho and Washington, and employ s nearly 1,2 00 people [M RL, 2018]. MRL connects with Spokane, Washington, the Burlington Northern & Santa Fe Railway (BNSF) at Laurel and Helena, Montana, the Montana Western Railway at Garrison, Montana, and the Union Pacific Railroad at Sandpoint, Idaho. 2011 train derailment in Bozeman (p hoto courtesy of Travis Munter) Table 4-14 provides a list of documented rail accidents in Gallatin County since 1981. Table 4-14. Railroad Accidents in Gallatin County, Montana [Federal Railroad Administration, 2018]1 Date Reportable Damage ($) Casualties 12-10-2018 not available 1 injury 09-20-2016 16,700 0 02-20-2013 15,000 0 05-08-2012 10,500 0 02-20-2011 850,000 0 03-15-2008 1,838,552 0 11-22-2006 25,000 1 Inj ury 09-26-2006 20,000 0 4 -56 Date Reportable Damage ($) Casualties 06-02-2005 35,000 1 Inj ury 02-13-2005 153,000 0 10-12-2004 10,000 0 08-15-2002 450,000 0 11-08-2002 262,000 2 Injuries 02-27-2001 18,000 0 03-31-2001 23,000 0 10-25-2001 24,227 0 07-09-1998 30,000 2 Inj uries 12-05-1997 25,500 0 09-02-1996 11,600 0 10-29-1996 52,000 0 02-08-1993 170,000 0 06-28-1993 22,500 0 10-08-1992 15,000 0 01-09-1991 23,000 0 03-16-1991 288,000 0 07-05-1991 155,000 0 12-29-1991 7,300 0 01-26-1989 8,000 0 03-09-1989 79,500 0 05-26-1989 18,000 0 11-08-1989 202,000 0 05-22-1988 12,500 0 05-25-1988 56,000 0 07-19-1988 11,000 0 10-05-1988 35,500 0 12-19-1988 251,700 0 09-01-1987 743,970 2 Inj uries 05-09-1986 70,000 0 04-13-1985 58,500 0 11-24-1985 25,500 0 11-30-1985 162,000 0 12-14-1985 191,800 0 06-10-1984 5,400 0 08-05-1984 97,200 0 10-24-1984 34,000 0 4 -57 Date Reportable Damage ($) Casualties 12-04-1984 25,300 0 11-02-1983 13,200 0 09-01-1982 72,000 0 01-28-1981 5,720 0 4.13.2 HISTORY The railroads in Gallatin County were operated by Burlington Northern Railroad from 1970 to 1987 until Montana Rail Link assumed control of the route through southern Montana. 4.13.3 PROBABILITY Since 19 81, 49 railroad accidents have occurred resulting in $6,719,669 in track and equipment damages and 9 injuries. Using this historical record, on average, a railroad accident oc curs 1.29 times per year (49 accidents / 38 years) in Gallatin County. The average accident causes $137,136 ($6,719,669 / 49 accidents) in damage. Obviously, incidents do not follow averages, and therefore, the maximum and minimum damages over the past 3 8 years should be noted. Another important consideration in a railroad accident is the release of hazardous materials. The historical record shows this has only occurred twice in the past thirty years, but the potential certainly exists as demonstrated by the number of hazardous material cars involved, but not damaged, in railroad accidents. 4.13.4 MAPPING The locations and routes of active rail lines in Gallatin County are well known and mapped appropriately. 4.13.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS A railroad accident is hazardous to those in close proximity to , and operating, the train due to physical impacts, but others may be threatened by associated hazards. A hazardous material release is the most probable associated hazard. Those effects are described in detail in the hazardous materials hazard profile. Almost any other hazard could also cause a railroad accident. Weather conditions can damage tracks or affect the locomotives and cars. For example, strong winds can blow cars from the tracks; winter storms, cold weather, and hot weather can warp tracks; avalanches, landslides, and flooding can cover rail routes; hail and tornadoes can damage cars; and fog and smoke can limit visibility. An earthquake or volcano could also damage tracks or equipment. The poss ibility that a train could be used in a terrorist attack cannot be ruled out. All associated hazards increase the probability of a railroad accident occurring. 4.13.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY Gallatin County critical facilities are not considered at increas ed risk from a railroad accident. A ssociated hazards may threaten facilities, but the accident itself should not directly impact the critical facilities. Most of the losses from a railroad accident are paid for by Montana Rail Link or their insurance. Potential community losses are most probable to infrastructure such as roadways. Should a derailment occur on a state, county, or city road, that road could be unusable for several days or weeks. Staff time in coordinating 4 -58 the clean up or response could be co nsidered additional railroad accident losses. In terms of structures that could be impacted by a derailment , a limited number are located within 250 feet of the railroad. Most accidents would probably only impact one or two structures Damages could vary in the hundreds of thousands of dollars depending on the structure or structures impacted. POPULATION Since the active railroad in Gallatin County no longer serves passengers, the potential for high casualties from the impact of a railroad accident is low. The potential certainly exists, however, for casualties to railroad workers and those in the general vicinity, especially since the trains pass through the center of three towns. The potential for large population impacts is considered low, however, particularly when considering the historical record of only 9 injuries over the past 38 years and 49 accidents. ECONOMY E conomic losses due to a train derailment are possible, though likely limited. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Future development should have little impac t on railroad accident hazard. Most development is occurring away from the railroad’s immediate impact area, but few restrictions exist to prevent such development. 4.13.7 DATA LIMITATIONS The data on the railroad hazard in Gallatin County is based on FRA records. This data is sufficient to calculate the occurrence likelihood over the past 30 years. Where the data is not useful is in determining the probability of a large -scale accident involving hazardous materials. An analysis of the current railroads, numbers /types of materials transported, and areas with the greatest potential for derailment would enhance this profile. Such information would not necessarily be included in a public plan. 4.13.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Low Low Low Low (13) (13 -39) Belgrade Moderate Low Moderate Low Moderate (18) (6-38) Big Sky 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bozeman Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (16) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Moderate Low Low Low Low (14) (6-37) West Yellowstone 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determi ne an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankings. 2 There are no active railroads in this district. 4 -59 4.14 SEVERE WEATHER 4.14.1 DESCRIPTION Thunderstorms in Montana develop when moisture in the air rises, often from daytime ground heating, an unstable atmospheric condition, synoptic front, or by terrain uplift, and cools higher in the atmosphere, condensing into rain droplets or ice crystals. The cloud grows as these conditions continue and the atmospheric instability allows. Lightning can be produced, with or without rain, as a charge builds up in the cloud. With the right atmospheric conditions, updrafts and downdrafts form in the thunderstorm structure. These strong updrafts and downdrafts can produce hail, strong straight-line winds, and even tornadoes. Hail is produced when a super cooled droplet collects a layer of ice and continues to grow, sustained by the updraft. Once the hail stone cannot be held up any longer by the updraft, it falls to the ground. Gallatin County regularly has small, pea -sized hail, but larger stones to the size of quarters or larger are possible. Strong straight-line winds, sometimes stronger than tornadoes at over 100 mph, occur when air is carried into a storm updraft, cools rapidly, and comes rushing to the ground. Cold air is denser than warm air, and therefore, wants to fall to the surface. On warm summer days, when the cold air can no longer be supported up by the storm’s updraft, the air crashes to the ground in the form of strong winds. These winds are forced horizontally when they reach the ground and can cause significant damage. Tornadoes form when the right amount of shear is present in the atmosphere and causes the updraft and downdraft to rotate. A funnel cloud is the rotating column of air extending out of a cloud base, but not yet touching the ground. The funnel cloud does not become a tornado until it touches the ground. Once in contact with the surface, it can create great damage over a small area. Although rare, they can and do occur in south central Montana. A severe thunderstorm is defined by the National Weather Service (NWS) as a thunderstorm that produces wind gusts at or greater than 58 mph (50 kno ts), hail ¾” or larger, and/or tornadoes. Although not considered severe by definition, lightning and heavy rain can also accompany thunderstorms. The severe conditions are often the events that can directly cause widespread damage. Strong winds, hail, and tornadoes have capability to damage structures, infrastructure, crops, livestock, and vehicles. Summer thunderstorm over Bozeman. Photo courtesy Jason Shrauger 4 -60 2008 Summer hailstorm at Montana State University Photo courtesy Patrick Lonergan 4.14.2 HISTORY Hail and strong winds frequently occur in thunderstorms in Gallatin County as documented in Table 4 -15 [USDA-NRCS , National Water & Climate Center (NWCC), 2017] Table 4-15. Severe Weather Events in Gallatin County since 2000 [NRCS-NWCC, 2017] Location or Coun Date Time Type Magnitude Deaths Injuries Prop. Damag Crop Damage MTZ055 1/4/2010 20:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 1/22/2010 8:00 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 3/18/2010 18:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 3/30/2010 17:00 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 4/6/2010 12:00 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 4/8/2010 13:35 High Wind 55 kts. 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 4/28/2010 6:00 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 5/3/2010 13:15 High Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K MTZ008 5/5/2010 14:00 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 6/30/2010 13:41 Hail 1.00 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 6/30/2010 13:47 Hail 1.75 0 0 0K 0K Belgrade 6/30/2010 14:12 Hail 2.75 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 6/30/2010 15:00 Hail 1.50 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 6/30/2010 15:00 Hail 2.00 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin Gateway 6/30/2010 15:00 Hail 1.25 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 6/30/2010 15:03 Hail 1.00 0 0 60.0 M 0K Bozeman 6/30/2010 15:05 Hail 1.75 0 0 0K 0K Three Forks 7/27/2010 15:05 Hail 1.00 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin Gateway 7/31/2010 17:00 Hail 1.50 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 8/1/2010 16:35 T-storm 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 10/26/2010 13:07 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K 4 -61 Location or Coun Date Time Type Magnitude Deaths Injuries Prop. Damag Crop Damage MTZ055 11/18/2010 6:15 High Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 11/18/2010 8:35 High Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 11/18/2010 9:35 High Wind 55 kts. 0 0 0K 0K MTZ015 ‐ 055 11/18/2010 12:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 11/18/2010 21:24 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ008 11/22/2010 6:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ008‐015‐ 055 11/23/2010 6:59 Blizzard N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ009 2/6/2011 19:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ009‐048‐ 055 2/16/2011 4:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ009 ‐ 055 2/22/2011 3:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 3/10/2011 16:04 High Wind 65 kts. 0 0 0K 0K MTZ011 3/21/2011 8:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ051 ‐ 055 4/18/2011 17:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ009 4/29/2011 4:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ008‐05 ‐ 055 5/9/2011 3:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K MTZ055 5/14/2011 19:36 High Wind 54 kts. 0 0 0K 0K MTZ008 5/29/2011 3:24 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K Logan 6/6/2011 15:55 Hail 1.50 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 6/12/2011 19:05 Hail 1.00 0 0 0K 0K Big Sky 6/23/2011 16:04 T-storm 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 7/25/2011 17:35 T-storm 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/12/2011 3:57 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/17/2011 12:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/20/2011 20:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/28/2011 10:30 High Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 01/18/2012 01:07 High Wind 55 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 01/25/2012 02:15 High Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/06/2012 05:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/13/2012 11:15 High Wind 54 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/19/2012 05:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/30/2012 11:35 High Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 04/05/2012 05:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 04/23/2012 15:20 T-storm 57 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 04/26/2012 19:00 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 06/09/2012 12:00 Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 06/26/2012 10:00 High Wind 60 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 07/10/2012 17:50 T-storm 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Chestnut 09/01/2012 16:12 T-storm 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 4 -62 Location or Coun Date Time Type Magnitude Deaths Injuries Prop. Damag Crop Damage Gallatin 10/16/2012 14:45 High Wind 54 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/08/2012 02:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/30/2012 00:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/01/2012 00:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/02/2012 08:00 High Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/09/2012 23:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 01/09/2013 04:35 High Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 01/10/2013 07:30 Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 01/28/2013 06:00 Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 01/31/2013 05:00 Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 02/09/2013 18:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 02/17/2013 02:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 02/22/2013 15:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/07/2013 09:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/17/2013 04:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/20/2013 08:00 High Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 06/19/2013 18:27 High Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Big Sky 07/17/2013 18:15 T-storm 60 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Amsterdam 08/01/2013 17:04 T-storm 68 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Manhattan 08/01/2013 17:07 T-storm 77 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 08/01/2013 17:10 T-storm 53 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Manhattan 08/01/2013 17:14 Hail 1.5 in. 0 0 0K 0K Belgrade 08/01/2013 17:15 Hail 1.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 08/01/2013 17:37 Hail 1.5 in. 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 08/23/2013 15:50 T-storm 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 09/16/2013 13:28 T-storm 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Chestnut 09/24/2013 19:25 T-storm 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 09/30/2013 11:50 High Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 10/03/2013 00:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/02/2013 19:30 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/04/2013 01:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/07/213 22:40 High Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/16/2013 00:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/20/2013 04:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/02/2013 07:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/18/2013 13:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/23/2013 22:25 High Wind 59 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 01/03/2014 09:55 High Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 4 -63 Location or Coun Date Time Type Magnitude Deaths Injuries Prop. Damag Crop Damage Gallatin 01/11/2014 12:55 High Wind 54 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 01/29/2014 06:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 02/12/2014 11:15 High Wind 53 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 02/17/2014 13:48 High Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 02/27/2014 18:30 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/10/2014 14:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/17/2014 05:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/29/2014 22:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 04/18/201 17:12 High Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 04/22/2014 19:40 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 04/27/2014 21:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 10/15/2014 17:30 High Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/09/2014 14:36 High Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/13/2014 20:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/24/2014 16:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/29/2014 10:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/13/2014 09:00 Heavy Sno N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 03/28/2015 10:54 High Wind 59 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Church Hill 06/01/2015 15:06 Hail 1 in. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 10/11/2015 10:56 High Wind 56 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/02/2015 17:00 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/15/2015 03:41 High Wind 59 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/24/2015 11:0 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/09/2015 14:45 High Wind 61 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/13/2015 14:00 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 02/06/2016 09:15 High Wind 65 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 02/15/2016 06:00 High Wind 65 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 02/18/2016 12:42 High Wind 54 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 04/04/2016 18:21 T-storm 56 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 05/09/2016 13:20 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 10/11/2016 04:30 Winter Stor N/A 1 0 0K 0K Gallatin 11/16/2016 16:30 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/16/2016 13:43 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/17/2016 05:00 Extreme Co N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/18/2016 03:00 High Wind 63 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 12/26/2016 14:00 High Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 01/31/2017 07:00 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K Manhattan 04/25/2017 12:38 Funnel Clou N/A 0 0 0K 0K 4 -64 Location or Coun Date Time Type Magnitude Deaths Injuries Prop. Damag Crop Damage Logan 04/25/2017 15:48 Funnel Clou N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 05/17/2017 19:00 Winter Stor N/A 0 0 0K 0K Gallatin 05/24/2017 14:35 High Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Bozeman 07/05/2017 15:56 T-storm 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Matthews 07/05/2017 16:11 T-storm 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Amsterdam 07/05/2017 16:11 T-storm 56 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Despite a lack of significant tornadoes in Gallatin County’s weather records, in nearby Yellowstone National Park just to the south, an F4 tornado (207-260 mph) formed on July 21, 1987. The Teton - Yellowstone Tornado, as it was named, was 1.5 miles (2.5 km) wide and traveled for 24 miles (39.2 km). The tornado crossed the Continental Divide at an elevation of 10,072 feet (3.070 m). Tornadoes like the Teton- Yellowstone Tornado are rare but possible in places like Gallatin County, Montana. More likely in Gallatin County are smaller, shorter lived, yet damaging tornadoes. 4.14.3 PROBABILITY The history of hail and strong thunderstorm winds in Gallatin County s hows that both are frequent. The data presented in the history is based on reports received by the NWS in Great Falls, MT. Often, unless the event is noticed by a trained spotter or emergency official, the event will go unreported. Therefore, many events may not have been reported or noted by observers and the statistics represent only those events that have been documented. 4.14.4 MAPPING Severe thunderstorms can occur anywhere in Gallatin County. Due to the sporadic population centers in Gallatin County, mapping the locations of historical events would show where events have been spotted and reported from, but would not necessarily depict the hazard level from severe thunderstorms. Infrequently traveled areas may have a larger concentration of severe thunderstorm events, but because of the low population, events have gone unreported. Therefore, the risk is assumed to be the same countywide. 4.14.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can be associated with other hazards. Lightning can spark wildfire or urban fires, especially when coupled with strong winds, and heavy rains can cause flash flooding. These hazards can also contribute to ground or aircraft accidents if they interfere with travel. Fortunately, most pilots are trained to recognize hazardous weather conditions such as severe thunderstorms. Particularly severe thunderstorms can also lead to widespread power and communications failures. 4 -65 4.14.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY All critical facilities and vulnerable populations are conside red to have the same vulnerability to severe thunderstorms, unless specific reinforcements have been made to protect them from strong winds. Infrastructure, namely power lines, are primarily vulnerable to high winds and falling trees. Power systems are the most likely infrastructure to fail during a severe thunderstorm. Communications towers may also topple under strong winds or large hail. Infrastructure at a reduced risk from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes include those utilities located underground or within reinforced structures. With the entire county at risk from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, estimates of damages are hard to determine. Realistically, an event involving a tornado or severe thunderstorm would most likely significantly affect o nly a small area. If that area, however, was in a developed part of the county, 10-20 homes could be damaged. Vehicles damaged by hail or falling debris would be additional losses. Potential losses could also include losses to agriculture. Livestock and crops can be significantly damaged by large hail and strong winds, and therefore, result in diminished profits. POPULATION The NWS in Great Falls, MT warns for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes when recognized on Doppler radar or by other means. The warnings are broadcast over NOAA weather radio and may be transmitted over television scrolls and cable networks such as the Weather Channel. Some events have 15-20 minutes warning time and others have little to no warning. Depending on the effectiveness of the warning reaching the population, those at greatest risk may or may not receive the warning and take precautionary measures. A NOAA weather radio transmitter is located in Bozeman, and those with specially built receivers can be alerted to weather hazards rapidly. The numerous campgrounds in the National Forests become particularly vulnerable populations if the warnings are not received. Depending on the significance of the storm, much of the population can be at risk if they do not take appropriate action. ECONOMY Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can damage businesses and cause temporary closures. Often the largest losses are seen in the agriculture industry, when weather events damage crops or livestock. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Future development will likely ha ve little effect on the vulnerability to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The risk is assumed to be uniform countywide, and therefore, the location of development does not increase or reduce the risk necessarily. Development and population growth may in fact improve the television and radio technology available to residents, and therefore, improve the warning capabilities. 4.14.7 DATA LIMITATIONS Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can be such isolated events that the vulnerability to a specific area can be hard to determine. Weather data is often limited by the observations taken, and severe thunderstorm and tornado events are only recorded if repo rted to the NWS . An in-depth study specific to Gallatin County would need to be conducted to further develop this hazard profile. Historic lightning data may also pinpoint the areas that receive the most thunderstorms. 4 -66 4.14.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High (31) (13 -39) Belgrade 2 High Moderate High Moderate High (36) (6-38) Big Sky 2 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (28) (7-52) Bozeman High Moderate High Moderate High (37) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For 2 High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (37) (6-37) West Yellowstone High Moderate High Moderate High (45) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determi ne an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankings. 2 Each of these districts maintained a separate hazard for severe summer (thunderstorms, tornadoes, wind) , and severe winter (extreme cold, winter storms) events as part of the hazards ranking exercise. The probability of occurrence and impact values included in this table represent the higher of the two values for purposes of determining overall risk for Severe Weather. 4.15 TERRORISM 4.15.1 DESCRIPTION Terrorism is defined in the Code of Federal Regulations (28 CFR, Section 0.85) as "the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives". Terrorists look for visible targets where they can avoid detection before or afte r an attack such as international airports, large cities, major international events, resorts, and high -profile landmarks. Bombings involving detonated and undetonated explosive devices, tear gas, and pipe and fire-bombs have been the most frequently used terrorist method in the United States. Other possible methods include attacks on transportation routes, utilities, or other public services, or incidents involving chemical or biological agents. Lone gunman shootings (active shooter incidents ) are sometim es described as a form of terrorism. However, without a nexus to a declared terrorist organization, an extremist ideology or belief system, or specific political objective, these attacks are rarely classified officially as terrorism. In the U.S., an individual that instigates or imposes violence towards a group of people is often said to be a “lone -actor” or “lone-wolf” if they are believed to operate independently, and not as part of a larger organization. These violent acts often inv olve firearms but can also involve chemical or explosive devices. Most of these incidents occur at locations deliberately selected for an attack and not simply a random site of opportunity. Schools, movie theaters, and stadiums and other large venues used for sports events or concerts are common locations chosen to conduct these unlawful acts. Mass-casualty shootings have sparked a political debate in the U.S. over gun violence, whether firearms should be allowed in the classroom and whether there should be more restrictive gun control laws . 4 -67 Active shooter training in Bozeman. Photo courtesy Gallatin County Emergency Management. Chemical terrorism is the use of chemical agents to poison, kill, or incapacitate the population. Chemical agents can be broken into five different categories: nerve agents, vesicants, cyanide, pulmonary agents, and incapacitating agents. Known nerve agents include tabun, sarin, soman, GF, and VX, and can cause a variety of conditions affecting the central nervous system either thr ough vapor or liquid form. Vesicants cause blisters on the skin and can damage eyes, airways, and other tissues and organs. Vesicant agents include sulfur mustard, Lewisite, and phosgene oxime. Cyanides can be in solid salt or volatile liquid format, or wh en combined with acid, a vapor or gas. Their absorption can cause everything from nausea to death, depending on the amount absorbed. Pulmonary agents such as phosgene and perfluoroisobutylene cause pulmonary edema usually hours after exposure. Incapacitati ng agents, such as BZ, produce reversible disturbances with the central nervous system and cognitive abilities . Terrorism using explosive and incendiary devices includes bombs and any other technique that creates an explosive, destructive effect. Bombs ca n take many forms from a car bomb to a mail bomb to any suspicious package. They can be remotely detonated using a variety of devices or directly detonated in the case of a suicide bomb. Bioterrorism is the use of biological agents to infect the populatio n or animals with disease. The agents/diseases that the C DCP consider the highest priority due to their threat to the population and national security include anthrax, botulism, plague, smallpox, tularemia, and viral hemorrhagic fevers. Bioterror ism could also be used against livestock population and agricultural plants. The following are select animal diseases identified by the USDA as a severe threat to livestock and human health: Avian Influenza, Exotic Newcastle Disease, Nipah, Hendra, Eastern Equine En cephalitis, Venezuelan Equine Encephalomyelitis, Foot and Mouth Disease, Rift Valley Fever, Rinderpest, African Swine Fever, and Classical Swine Fever. Those plant diseases identified by the USDA as a severe threat to plants are: Soybean Rust, Southern Bacteria Wilt, Plum Pox, Downy Mildew of Corn, Brown Stripe Downey Mildew of Maize, Potato Wart, Bacterial Leaf Streak of Rice, Citrus Greening, and Pierce’s Disease. Radiological terrorism involves the use of radiological dispersal devices or nuclear facili ties to attack the population. Exposure to radiation can cause radiation sickness, long -term illness, and even death. Terrorism experts fear the use of explosive and radiological devices in the form of a “dirty bomb” to attack the population. As with chemi cal and biological events, radiological incidents present contamination challenges for first responders. 4 -68 Cyber terrorism is the attack or hijack of the information technology infrastructure that is critical to the U.S. economy through financial networks, government systems, mass media, or other systems. Any cyber-attack that creates national unrest or instability would be considered cyber terrorism. Montana has traditionally attracted activist/extremist individuals and groups because of its low population and large geographic area. Groups active in Montana vary from white supremacists to single issue groups, such as environmental extremists. These groups are attracted to the state and many of them view Montana as their “home" , or safe -haven. Because of the se views, they commit their illegal activities outside of the state. An example of this would be the Unabomber, Ted Kaczynski. Kaczynski advocated the destruction of technology and the protection of the environment. The Unabomber was responsible for sixtee n bombings and three deaths around the United States. Another example, The World Church of the Creator, which is a white supremacist group with a national following, advocates a “Racial Holy War” against minorities. This group has their national meeting in Superior, Montana once a year. Members of this group have been responsible for numerous homicides in the United States. Groups such as the Phineas Priesthood of Spokane, WA have used western Montana as a place to hide. The anti-government group , the Freemen, conducted an 81-day standoff with law enforcement in eastern Montana. At the conclusion it was determined they were a “refuge” for individuals around the country involved in criminal anti -government activity. Several of these individuals had spoken about military type action against the current government. Many other organizations besides these that have the potential to use violence exist in parts of Montana and across the country. Recently, the National Alliance, the largest neo -Nazi organization in the United States, has conducted leafleting campaigns in Southwest Montana and is trying to establish a presence in our communities. This organization has been tied to violent acts throughout the country. Eco-terrorism is a growing domestic ter rorism concern that has been noted in the western United States. The FBI defines eco -terrorism as the use or threatened use of violence of a criminal nature against innocent victims or property by an environmentally -oriented, sub national group for environ mental- political reasons, or aimed at an audience beyond the target, often of a symbolic nature. Organizations identified by the FBI as having terrorist cells include the Animal Liberation Front (ALF) and the Earth Liberation Front (ELF). Although supporti ng organizations generally advocate peaceful demonstrations, the FBI estimates that the ALF/ELF have committed more than 600 criminal acts in the United States from 1996-2001, resulting in damages in excess of $43 million. The most destructive acts committ ed by the ALF/ELF involve arson. Many of these attacks have occurred in nearby states such as Washington, Oregon, Utah, Idaho, and Colorado51. One of the goals of these organizations is to preserve undeveloped lands. With the natural resources that exist in Gallatin County and the potential for future development, this type of terrorism is considered the most likely in Gallatin County. 4.15.2 HISTORY Fortunately, Gallatin County has not been the target of any major terrorist attacks. Some small, local leve l events have required a minimal local government response. 4 -69 4.15.3 PROBABILITY With very little experience and data locally on this hazard, a specific probability for future terrorism is hard to determine. Based on the historical record and the terrorism threat present for the area, the probability of a large -scale terrorism event is considered low. 4.15.4 MAPPING The City of Bozeman is the most populous part of Gallatin County. This area, with proximity to hazardous material facilities and government buildings, could be considered the area at greatest risk for terrorism. Domestic and international terrorism can be hard to predict, and therefore, specific targets are not easily identified. National parks are also considered potential terrorist targets and, therefore, Yellowstone National Park to the south puts Gallatin County communities, particularly West Yellowstone, susceptible to this potential hazard. 4.15.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Any hazard that can be “created” can be the result of terrorism. For example, dam failure can be the result of a terrorist act of compromising the dam. Other examples include communicable disease, aviation, ground, and railroad accidents, hazardous materials release, utility failure, wildfire, and urban fire. All these hazards could be the result of a terrorist act if intentionally triggered. 4.15.6 VULNERABILITY It is impossible to assess the county’s vulnerability to international terrorism. Although extremist groups exist within Montana, it is unlikely that any terrorist act perpetrate d by these groups would be of disastrous proportions. Authorities on terrorism generally agree that terrorism cannot be wiped out entirely. For the present, they see it as a problem to be managed, not solved. PROPERTY Critical facilities in Gallatin County are considered to be at greatest risk from terrorism. Often, terrorists target facilities that are highly important for government services and community stability or are particularly vulnerable. Threat data is not specific enough to identify what facilities are most vulnerable, and therefore, all critical facilities are considered to have the same risk countywide. Those facilities with barriers, security, and other forms of protection are at lower risk. Most facilities in Gallatin County, however, do not have those protections. Residential structure losses are possible from terrorism, civil unrest, and violence but are not likely. Often the losses are at critical facilities or to the population. Looting, however, can be commonly found in association with these types of events. Therefore, this hazard places both the population and property at risk. Urban areas, places of public gathering, and important government or economic assets are generally going to be the areas of greatest risk. Should an event occur, the losses would likely be moderate. POPULATION The effects of terrorism, civil unrest, and violence are usually felt by the population. The greatest risk is to human lives during times of unrest. Terrorists typically try to make a dramatic impact that will generate 4 -70 media interest. Attacking the populat ion through a large loss of life is a common tactic. Therefore, the greatest vulnerability from terrorism is to human life and the economy. ECONOMY Economic losses will vary dramatically depending upon the incident. Small, isolated incidents are unlikely to have a major impact on the local economy. Large, nationally publicized incidents have the potential to deter tourism. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Development should have little to no impact on the terrorism, civil unrest, and violence threat. The exception would be the increase in population and the associated increase of potential losses to life and property within the county. With larger communities around, however, development should have little effect in this regard. Given the goals of eco-terrorists, however, future development could serve as the basis for an event over controversial development. 4.15.7 DATA LIMITATIONS Since terrorism, civil unrest, and violence are such isolated events and little history exists in Gallatin County, the probability and potential lo sses are difficult to quantify. Therefore, generalities have been made to estimate where potential losses could be. Site specific surveys would allow for an analysis of weaknesses of critical facilities, infrastructure, and vulnerable populations to terrorism, civil unrest, and violent incidents. 4.15.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Low Low Moderate Moderate Low (15) (13 -39) Belgrade Low Low Low Low Low (6) (6-38) Big Sky Low Low Low Moderate Low (7) (7-52) Bozeman Low Low Moderate Moderate Low (10) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Low Low Moderate Low Low (9) (6-37) West Yellowstone Moderate Moderate Moderate High Moderate (26) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankin gs. 4.16 URBAN CONFLAGRATION 4.16.1 DESCRIPTION From earliest colonial times until the early part of the twentieth century, American cities suffered devastating fires known as conflagrations. These fires grew in destructive power in parallel with the coming of the In dustrial Revolution in the early 19 th century. By the mid -1920s, however, these city - consuming fires had abated. While large, multi -building fires continued to cause significant damage on 4 -71 occasion, large -scale fires leveling hundreds, or thousands of struc tures did not recur. Whether or not an urban fire spreads out of control and envelops large sections of a city is dependent on many factors including construction techniques, building materials, water availability, and local climatology. Recent changes in climate and weather are largely responsible for triggering a new type of urban conflagration that results when extreme wildfire behavior in the wildland -urban interface engulfs communities and causes rapid structure -to-structure ignition. 4.16.2 HISTORY Within Gallatin County the re is limited record of past, large- scale urban fires. In recent history, an urban conflagration- like event that had a lasting impact on the City of Bozeman, was a natural gas explosion and subsequent fire that c onsumed much of a city block downtown o n March 5, 2009. This incident resulted in one fatality and the complete destruction of four downtown businesses and moderate to severe structural damage to numerous buildings. It stands as the largest, urban emergency response (fire, law enforcement, medical) in Gallatin County’s history. Downtown Bozeman explosion, March 5, 2009. Photo courtesy unknown source . 4.16.3 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE The probability of a large, urban fire is dependent upon numerous conditions being present to support its initial ignition and continued advancement of the fire. Modern building construction and built-in fire suppression (e.g., sprinklers) greatly reduce the probability of rapid fire expansion in today’s urban environment. Of greater concern and probability is the likelihood of a large wildfire overtaking residential areas within the wildland-urban interface (WUI), in a manner similar to recent fire events in northern California. Specific areas of concern for this type of event in Gallatin County include West Yellowstone, Big Sky, and WUI areas along the perimeter of the Gallatin Valley. 4.16.4 MAPPING U pdated WUI mapping is provided within the Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP) update that accompanies this HMP. 4.16.5 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY Property that is most at-risk from an urban conflagration in Gallatin County are residential and, to a lesser degree, commercial real estate located within the WUI. 4 -2 Downtown Bozeman explosion, March 5, 2009 Photo courtesy Larry Mayer, Billings Gazette POPULATION The population exposure to an urban conflagration event is significant, although limited primarily to persons that live and/or work within areas of high wildfire risk. ECONOMY As with any large -scale fire event, these incidents have the potential to impact not only the immediate area that burns, but also have greater economic impacts via disruption in travel and negative effects on tourism due to smoke and poor air quality. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Planning and zoning regulations at the county level can have a significant effect on development, particularly in WUI areas, and can help to reduce the risk of a wildfire having a major impact within residential subdivisions. Wildfire near Clarkston, MT Photo courtesy Mont ana DNRC. 4.16.6 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (21) (13 -39) Belgrade Low Low Low Moderate Low (7) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (28) (7-52) Bozeman Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Moderate Moderate Low Low Moderate (18) (6-37) West Yellowstone Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (23) (6-49) 4 -70 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determi ne an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankings. 4.17 VIOLENCE (VIOLENT ACT / ATTACK) 4.17.1 DESCRIPTION Violence in the context of an anthropogenic hazard is defined as the intentional use of physical force or power, threatened or actual, against oneself, another person, or against a group or community, that either results in or has a high likelihood of resulting in injury, death, psychological harm, maldevelopment, or deprivatio n. Violence can also stem from group forms of disorderly conduct such as c ivil disobedience or unrest and organized protest, all of which generally refer to groups of people purposely choosing not to observe a law, regulation, or rule, usually to bring attention to their cause, concern, or agenda. It may also be defined as acts of violence by assemblages of three or more persons, which cause an immediate danger, or results in damage or injury to the property or person of any other individual. In recent years, an increase in hate crimes have occurre d. Hate crimes occur when a perpetrator targets a victim because of his or her perceived membership in a certain social group. Examples of such groups include but are not limited to racial group, religion, sexual orientation, ethnicity or gender identity. Incidents may involve phy sical assault, damage to property, bullying, harassment, verbal abuse or insults, or offensive graffiti or letters (hate mail). Human trafficking is a public health concern that impacts individuals, families, and entire communities across generations. This type of violence is a form of modern slavery. It occurs when a trafficker exploits an individual with force, fraud, or coercion to perform commercial sex or work activities. Targeted individuals are not limited to any class, religious, cultural, or ethnic group. Traffickers can be any gender or age; some are strangers, while others are peers, friends, romantic partners or family members. From Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office 4.17.2 HISTORY The record of violence and violent a cts in Gallatin County is largely limited to statistics of serious felony crimes, or capital crimes, such as murder, kidnapping, and drug trafficking, and rape or sexual assault. The City of Bozeman police department publishes an annual report documenting crimes within city limits. Montana State University (MSU) is required to report annual crime statistics under the Clery Act. 4.17.3 PROBABILITY The probability of violence targeted against an individual or group of people is difficult to predict and is typically based on previous occurrence of crimes (crime type and location) . Training in threat assessment 4 -71 and situational awareness, along with detection of social behavioral queues, can be used to identify circumstances and environments where an increased probability of violent acts may occur. The Montana All Threat Intelligence Center’s (MATIC) purpose is to collect, store, analyze and disseminate information on public safety issues, including suspected offenses, to the law enforcement community and government officials regarding dangerous drugs, fraud, organized crime, terrorism and other criminal activit y for the purposes of decision making, and proactive law enforcement while ensuring the rights and privacy of citizens. 4.17.4 MAPPING Both the City of Bozeman and MSU periodically publish maps and/or location descriptions where violent crimes have occurred. 4.17.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Both civil unrest and terrorism are hazards that often include violent elements and therefore can be considered associated hazards. Violence can also occur in the aftermath of catastrophic events such as earthquakes, fires, floods, or other critical infrastructure disruptions that cause acute resource shortages. 4.17.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY Residential structure s are sometimes the target of violen t acts, either through burglary or vandalism. Personal property (vehicles, equipment) are also common targets for violent criminal acts or theft. Commercial property can be targeted for vandalism or theft, occurring both as a principal violent activity, or as a secondary response to another event, such as looting that may follow in the aftermath of a natural disaster. Urban areas, places of public gathering, and important government or economic assets are generally going to be the areas of greatest risk. POPULATION The effects of violence are often directed at an individual or group of people . The greatest risk is to human lives during times of unrest. Terrorists typically try to make a dramatic impact that will generate media interest. Attacking the population through a large loss of life is a common tactic. Therefore, the greatest vulnerability from terrorism is to human life and the economy. ECONOMY Measuring the social and economic costs of violence can be difficult, and most estimates only consider the direct economic effects, such as productivity loss or the use of health care services. Communities and societies feel the effects of violence through loss of social cohesion, financial divestment, and the increased burden of the health care and justice systems. Major economic drivers in Gallatin County include M SU and the tourism industry, which both could be negatively impacted by the effects of violence. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT As communities in the county continue to grow and develop, population will increase and likely become more diverse. An increase in urban-type environments often presents significant risk factors that encourage violence. These risk factors can include gang violence, organized crime, limited government capacity and rising inequality. 4 -72 4.17.7 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (16) (13 -39) Belgrade Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) (6-38) Big Sky Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) (7-52) Bozeman Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Moderate Low Moderate Low Moderate (23) (6-37) West Yellowstone Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate (14) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankin gs. 4.18 VOLCANO 4.18.1 DESCRIPTION Active volcanoes are not known to be present in Gallatin County, but past eruptions have affected the county and possibility of an eruption in nearby Yellowstone National Park is always present. The active volcanic areas in the Cascade Range such as Mount St. Helens, Mount Rainer, and Mount Hood are to the west of Gallatin County and are within the reasonable range of ash fall with the usual upper atmospheric wind patterns. Theoretically, these volcanoes could deposit ash several inches thick over Gallatin County and any large eruption could change the weather patterns experienced globally. The Yellowstone Caldera, one of the world’s largest active volcanic systems, has produced several giant volcanic eruptions in the past few mi llion years, as well as many smaller eruptions and steam explosions. Although no eruptions of lava or volcanic ash have occurred for many thousands of years, future eruptions are likely. Over the next few hundred years, hazards will most likely be limited to ongoing geyser and hot - spring activity, occasional steam explosions, and moderate to large earthquakes. To better understand Yellowstone’s volcano and earthquake hazards and to help protect the public, the U SGS, the University of Utah, and Yellowstone N ational Park formed the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) , which continuously monitors activity in the region. 4 -73 If a large caldera-forming eruption were to occur at Yellowstone, its effects would be worldwide. Thick ash deposits would bury vast areas of the United States, and injection of huge volumes of volcanic gases into the atmosphere could drastically affect global climate. Fortunately, the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera -forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low. Any renewed volcanic activity at Yellowstone would most likely take the form of non -explosive lava eruptions. An eruption of lava could cause widespread havoc in Yellowstone, including fires and the loss of roads and facilities, however more distant areas such as Bozeman would probably remain largely unaffected [USGS, 2005]. Bunsen Peak, Yellowstone Volcano Remnant Photo courtesy of USGS. 4.18.2 HISTORY In May 1980, the eruption of Mount St. Helens sent ash high into the atmosphere. Approximately a half an inch of ash fell across Gallatin County. Historical studies have shown that ash from Glacier Peak 11,200 years ago and Mount Mazama 6,600 years ago also fell in Gallatin County . The Yellowstone region has produced three exceedingly large volcanic eruptions in the past 2.1 million years. In each of these cataclysmic events, enormous volumes of magma erupted at the surface and into the atmosphere as mixtures of red-hot pumice, volcanic ash (small, jagged fragments of volcanic glass and rock), and gas that spread as pyroclastic (“fire-broken”) flows in all directions. Rapid withdrawal of large volumes of magma from the subsurface then caused the ground to collaps e, swallowing overlying mountains and creating broad cauldron-shaped volcanic depressions called “calderas.” [US GS, 2005]. 4.18.3 PROBABILITY Volcanic eruptions are rare events when considered in comparison to other hazards measured on the 100-year scale. Scientists evaluate natural-hazard levels by combining their knowledge of the frequency and the severity of hazardous events. In the Yellowstone region, damaging hydrothermal explosions and earthquakes can occur several times a century. Lava flows and small volcanic eruptions occur only rarely - none in the past 70,000 years. Massive caldera-forming eruptions, though the most potentially devastating of Yellowstone’s hazards, are extremely rare - only three have occurred in the past several million years. US GS , University of Utah, and National Park Servic e scientists with the YVO see no evidence that another such cataclysmic eruption will occur at Yellowstone in the foreseeable future. Recurrence intervals of these events are neither regular nor predictable. Figure 4 -9 shows the probability of the various events that can occur in Yellowstone National Park. 4 -74 Figure 4-9. USGS Graphic Depicting Recurrence Intervals for Geological Events in Yellowstone National Park 4.18.4 MAPPING The areas affected by volcanic eruptions are dependent on the type of eruption and the prevailing wind direction. In an actual event, models would be used to predict the areas that would receive ash and other effects from the volcano. Therefore, mapping hazard areas would be broad generalizations and will not be completed here. The county is assumed to have the same risk countywide for a Cascade Range eruption and decreasing risk from south to north for a Yellowstone eruption. 4.18.5 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS Volcanoes, a geological feature, are closely related to earthquake activity. Often eruptions are preceded by earthquake activity as magma moves below the surface. The two events are usually closely linked and monitored. Other factors that become important during a volcanic eruption include wind speed, direction, and rainfall. The wind speed and direction will dictate when and where ash falls. Dry ash is manageable, but when combined with rainfall, the ash becomes glue-like and much more difficult to control. 4.18.6 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY All critical facilities are at risk from volcanic eruptions. The impact on the facilities will depend on the amount of ash that falls and the ability to remove it. Significant amounts of ash have the potential to clog air systems and shut down facilities. Given enough wet, heavy ash, the potential exists for roofs to fail. Infrastructure exposed to the ash fall, such as power systems, could be brought down by the ash as well. The removal of ash from government facilities and infrastructure c an potentially create costs beyond the community ’s capabilities. Thus , all critical facilities and vulnerable populations are exposed to ash fall. 4 -75 During Mount St. Helens’ 1980 eruption, the greatest costs came from the difficult task of removing volcanic ash. The greatest threat is not necessarily to people or residences but to property such as vehicles and equipment. The volcanic dust is corrosive to metals and without proper removal can certainly cause damages to public and private property. In a Yellowstone eruption, the potential for heavy, wet ash could threaten struc tures by collapsing roofs. The probability of an event of this magnitude is very low. The economy, and particularly tourism , could be severely affected if an eruption occur s or is imminent. POPULATION Light ash fall does not significantly impact the popula tion if those with respiratory sensitivities remain indoors. Ash fall conditions that exist for several days, however, could lead to significant health problems for many in Gallatin County. The extremely rare major Yellowstone eruption could lead to deaths to those close to the Park from pyroclastic flows and extreme amounts of falling ash. The degree of population impacts will greatly vary depending on the type of event. ECONOMY The tourist economy could be severely impacted should a volcanic eruption occur or become imminent. Ashfall may cause plane transportation services to be delayed or cancelled, further reducing tourism to the area. Significant ashfall cam harm crops and livestock and impact the local agricultural economy. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Future development will have little to no effect on the volcano hazard. N ew development will be exposed to the volcano hazards of Gallatin County and increase the population and property values at risk. 4.18.7 DATA LIMITATIONS Volcanic eruptions that affect Gallatin County are so extremely rare that documenting the potential impacts and probability is very limited. Continued study of the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic areas will hopefully allow scientists, and therefore emergency managers, to better understand this hazard. 4.18.8 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (13) (13 -39) Belgrade Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (12) (6-38) Big Sky Low High Moderate High Low (15) (7-52) Bozeman Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (12) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (13) (6-37) West Yellowstone Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (12) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determine an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankin gs. 4 -76 4.19 WILDFIRE As part of the update process for this HMP, Gallatin County has concurrently updated its Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP). The updated CWPP is integrated with this HMP document and included herein as Attachment A. Stakeholders specif ically involved with the Wildfire hazard and its associated risks and vulnerability are encouraged to review the updated CWPP for more detailed information. 4.19.1 DESCRIPTION Wildland fires are a part of nature in the mountainous, forested areas and arid grasslands of Montana. Gallatin County has both broad areas of National Forest and dry open fields. Forest fires can travel quickly through the crowns of trees or spread along the forest floor. Grass fires are common in non-irrigated fields and open areas scattered with sage brush and native grasses due to the arid climate during almost any season but winter. Both types of wildfires can be aggravated by exceptionally windy conditions that often occur in parts of the county. A wildland fire can be categorized as either an uncontrolled fire in a forested/heavily vegetated area or in a grass/brush area. Both types of wildfires have the potential to destroy structures and affect natural resources while producing heavy amounts of smoke. Wildfires can be caused by any ignition source but are most often triggered by lightning, human carelessness, arson, or sparks emanating from machinery or equipment (i.e., trains, farm implements). Once triggered, the ambient conditions dictate whether the fire will spread. Moist, cool, calm conditions or low fuels will aid in suppressing the fire, whereas dry, warm, windy conditions or heavy fuels will contribute to fire spread. The natural environment has evolved to live with fire. New growth can occur in only a few years and some species require fire to grow. Problems with wildfire occur when combined with the human environment. People and structures near wildfires are threatened unless adequately protected through evacuation or mitigation. Most structures are flammable and, therefore, threatened when wildfire approaches. In addition, a significant loss of life could occur with residents who do not evacuate, firefighters, and others who are in the wildfire area. Infrastructure such as electric transmission lines, fuel tanks, and radio transmission towers are usually not equipped to withstand the heat from a wildfire. Timber resources, animal habitats, and waterways can all be damaged leading to negative economic and environmental impacts. The area where human development meets undeveloped, vegetated lands is called the W ildland -Urban Interface (WUI). Gallatin County is regularly threatened by wildfires because of the terrain, climate conditions, and fuels present. A significant portion of the land area in Gallatin County is under federal and state government ownership. Parts of the Custer -Gallatin National Forest and Yellowstone National Park lie within the c ounty boundarie s. The US Bureau of Land Management manages numerous parcels within the county as well. Fuels in Gallatin County range from dense timber stands in varying terrain to native grasslands. Douglas fir, lodgepole pine, Engelmann spruce, sagebrush, rough fescue, and other grasses make up many of the wildland fuels in the county. Periods of drought, disease, insect infestations, and low fire activity or mitigation can all lead to an increase in hazardous fuels. 4.19.2 HISTORY Gallatin County has a long history of wildfires from small to large. The extent of damages often depends on the proximity to the WUI, fire spread rates, and the effectiveness of suppression and mitigation measures. The history of wildfires can be difficult to compile because the various firefighting entities involved and a variety of recordkeeping measures over the years. The following list chronicles several of the critical / severe wildfire events that have occurred in the county over the last 30 years . 4 -77 June – November,1988 - Greater Yellowstone Fires . Numerous fires throughout Yellowstone National Park raged through the entire summer and well into th e fall of 1988. Some of these fires extended into portions of Gallatin County. The fires covered 2.3 million acres, employed an estimated 25,000 firefighters, and cost nearly $120 million for fire suppression. One firefighter and one pilot were killed , and structure losses were estimated at $3 million, mostly within Yellowstone National Park. August 2001 – Fridley Fire. Lightning ignited the Fridley Fire on August 19 near Fridley Creek in the Custer- Gallatin National Forest. The fire doubled in size on August 22 and displayed "extreme" behavior on August 23, when high winds caused it to double in size again. Montana Execu tive Order 20 -01, issued on August 25, 2001, declared a state of emergency in Gallatin County and other locations across the state and mobilized state resources and the National Guard to fight the wildfires. On August 31, three members of a firefighting he licopter crew were killed on a maintenance flight when a bucket line tangled with a rotor, causing the helicopter to crash three miles south of Emigrant in Park County. The Fridley Fire was contained on September 13, 2001. In all, 26,373 acres burned from this fire and firefighting costs totaled over $11 million with 1,261 personnel, 50 pieces of heavy equipment, and 14 helicopters used. Fortunately, no structures were lost. This was a significant fire for Gallatin County because the City of Bozeman watershed, which is the primary the drinking water supply for the city, was threatened. Bridger Foothills Fire , September 20 20 . Photo courtesy Don Seifert . September 2001 - Purdy Fire . Following the Fridley Fire by just a few weeks, the Purdy Fire ignited o n September 26 th in the upper Wilson Creek drainage southeast of Gallatin Gateway. By September 28, the fire had burned over 4,000 acres and caused the evacuation of over 50 homes . September 2009 - Flaming Arrow Fire . Winds re-ignited the remnants of a controlled burn into a fast - moving grass fire in the Flaming Arrow subdivision just south of Bridger Bowl . The fire burned mostly on private land and threatened about 25 homes. The fire was 100 percent contained after burning approximately 250 acres over a four -day period. 4 -78 June 2012 - Bear Trap Fir e. A human-caused fire that was later determined to be arson, burned 15,500 acres in the Bear Trap Canyon area along the Madison River west of Bozeman. The estimated value of property lost in the fire, including one home, crops, pastures, fences, a vehicle, eight horses and electrical transmission lines totaled more than $3.8 million. Approximately $1.25 million was spent in suppression costs and involved over 200 firefighters . August – September 2012 – Millie Fire. Burned 10,515 acres in the Storm Castle Creek drainage, approximately 20 miles southwest of Bozeman. The fire was not fully contained for nearly one month, and initially threatened to cross over into the Hyalite Creek draina ge where it could potentially have affected a drinking water source for the City of Bozeman as well as other impacts to the heavily used Hyalite Reservoir recreation area. The fire caused closures of Hyalite Canyon, Leverich Canyon, and Sourdough Canyon (Bozeman Creek) for much of its duration. October 2015 - Cottonwood Gulch Fir e. This fire was accidentally started by a landowner’s vehicle in the Cottonwood Gulch area north of Manhattan. The fire burned approximately 8,300 acres and one outbuilding before being fully containe d. August 2016 -Maple Fire. The Maple Fire was detected on the evening of August 8, 2016 by smoke jumper aircraft flying over Yellowstone. The cause was determined to be lightning. The southwest perimeter of the fire burned within 3.5 miles of West Yellowstone. Over 230 personnel were assigned to the fire at its peak. The fire burned over 41,000 acres of timber and short grass. July – October 2018 – Bacon Rind Fire. The Bacon Rind Fire was detected on July 20 th and continued to burn for over two months at varied intensity with the main objective of restoring fire to the landscape. The 5,232-acre fire was located approximately 20 miles south of Big Sky along the west side of Highway 191, within both Yellowstone National Park and CGNF -Lee Metcalf Wilderness. There were no structures threatened or lost due to coordination with Gallatin County and local fire departments. September 2018 - Horseshoe Fire . This fire burned 1,223 acres in the Horseshoe Hills east of Clarkston. The fire began on Monday afternoon, Sept. 10 th and was declared 100% contained on Saturday, Sept. 15 th . Several structures were lost to this fire including three primary residences, two secondary residences, and several outbuildings [GCEM websit e, Horseshoe Fire Update, 9/14/18 – 9:30am]. September 2020 – Bridger Foothills Fire. This fire burned 8,224 acres in Bridger Canyon North of Bozeman. The fire began on September 4 th and was declared 100% contained on October 12 th . 30 primary residences, one commercial building and numerous outbuildings were destroyed. 4.19.3 PROBABILITY The probability of wildland fires to occur in Gallatin County is considered high. As Gallatin County continues to grow and more and more of the population begins to recreate in the national forests, the potential for fire starts increases. Combine this with the normal natural causes of fire such as lightning, and Gallatin County can expect to see significant fires in the future. 4.19.4 ASSOCIATED HAZARDS AND OTHER FACTORS As if a raging wildfire isn’t bad enough, the charred ground and thick smoke plumes it produces can create other hazards. The heavy smoke produced by a wildfire can cause unhealthy air conditions that may affect those with respiratory problems and otherwise healthy people. The air conditions are often monitored, and alerts may be issued. Smoky conditions can also lead to poor visibility and an increased probability of ground transportation or aircraft accidents. Besides air pollution, water pollution may occur during and after a wildfire. Many watersheds in wildland areas serve as public water supplies for area communities. Should a moderate to high intensity fire pass through the area, pollution of the watershed can occur. With 4 -79 vegetat ion removed and the ground seared from a wildfire, the area also becomes more prone to flash floods and landslides because of the ground’s reduced ability to hold water. Aerial fire suppression with Sikorsky S -64 “Skycrane” helicopter . Photo courtesy Jason Revisky . 4.19.5 VULNERABILITY PROPERTY Critical facilities set in wildland areas can be particularly problematic during fires. Electric and communications infrastructure, including major regional electric transmission lines and public safety communications sites, are located in forested, wildland areas within Gallatin County. This infrastructure is highly vulnerable to wildland f ire in the absence of mitigative efforts . Within Gallatin County, wildfires have the greatest potential to substantially burn National F orest and N ational P ark acreage, however, private residences become threatened when the fire enters the WUI. Gallatin C ounty has many WUI areas that may be threatened should a wildfire encroach. The Gallatin County CWPP, which is an Attachment to this HMP document, provides an accurate and detailed assessment of the risks and potential losses from this hazard. Ongoing development within Gallatin County, and particularly within WUI Intermix areas, has substantially increased the level of vulnerability to the wildfire hazard, both to population and to property. Between 1990 and 20 16, 430 new homes were built in Gallatin County in areas of high wildfire hazard, and 1,910 new homes were built in areas of moderate wildfire hazard (Headwaters Economics, June 2018). Structure loss assessment following wildfire. Photo courtesy Gallatin County Emergency Management Although the primary concern is to structures and residents, most of the costs associated with fires, come from firefighting and suppression efforts . Additional losses to natural resources, water supplies, air quality, and the economy are also typically found. As past events have shown, infrastructure such as 4 -80 power transmission lines can be threatened. Wildfires can also have a significant impact on the regional economy wit h the loss of timber, natural resources, recreational opportunities, and tourism, all of which are importan t in Gallatin County. POPULATION Using the estimate of 79 structures affected in a major wildfire from the Potential Losses section, roughly 150 people would live in the affected area (79 structures x 1.9 people/structure). In many cases, residents can be evacuated before the fire moves into their area. Some residents, however, may choose to remain in the evacuated area, or a rapidly spreading fire may not allow enough time for a formal evacuation. Firefighters can be particularly threatened during wildfires. Advances in firefighter safety and technology have improved firefighting efforts, however, the potential for loss of life and injuries still exists. For these reasons, the impact on the population can be considered moderate. ECONOMY Wildf ire suppression and control can be extremely costly, depending on the nature of the fire. Additionally, fires can depress tourism, which is a significant economic driver in Gallatin County. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT The wildland/urban interface is a very popular place to live as national trends show. More and more homes are being built in the WUI and Gallatin County is no exception. Development in high and moderate wildfire hazard areas has increased in recent years and has amplified the vulnerabilities in the unincorporated parts of Gallatin County, particularly areas mapped as WUI Intermix (refer to Attached CWPP). Regulating growth in these areas is a balance between protecting private property rights and promoting public safety. The Gallatin County Growth Policy and Subdivision Regulations recognize the wildfire threat, emphasizing defensible space, new development inspection, water s upplies , and fuels management and mitigation. Mt. Ellis area southeast of Bozeman – an example of WUI Intermix. Photo courtesy M. Rotar 4.19.6 DATA LIMITATIONS With an understanding of the components that contribute to wildfire risk and application of a coordinated and collaborative planning effort, Gallatin County and other stakeholders can take steps to influence each component of wildfire risk in different ways. The importance of high quality, current risk assessment information is critical to the success of this planning effort. Data used in the risk assessment must have adequate quality and resolution to facilitate accurate modeling of the risks. Assessment of wildfire risk 4 -1 also requires detailed, accurate information on development patterns in the WUI, changes in fire suppression resources and methods, and the effects of recent fires . The following steps could be taken to improve the risk assessment analysis and information: 1. Resulting landscape changes from recent wildfire seasons (2017 and later) could be incorporated into an updated wildfire risk assessment. This would require e xtensive field work and data analysis. 2. Compile parcel -level assessment data to inform and complete risk assessment, increase first responder information, and encourage public engagement. Parcel -level assessment data would not only provide the susceptibi lity information required for a complete risk assessment, but also provide valuable information for fire districts and residents to guide private property mitigation efforts. The attached CWPP document (Attachment A) provides additional detail on potential actions that could be taken to improve data quality and resolution to facilitate accurate wildfire modeling and risk assessment. 4.19.7 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE District / Jurisdiction Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impac Overall Risk 1 (Relative Score) (Range Gallatin County High High Moderate Moderate High (39) (13 -39) Belgrade High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (30) (6-38) Big Sky High High High High High (52) (7-52) Bozeman High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (36) (10-42) Manhattan/Three For High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (36) (6-37) West Yellowstone High High High High High (49) (6-49) 1 Each jurisdiction (district) determined the hazard’s overall risk score by assigning values to ranking metrics that included: 1) probability that the hazard occurs, and 2) potential impacts to property, population and the economy. Criteria for assigning values to the probability and impact metrics and applying weighting factors to the different impact categories can be found in Section 4.20, Risk Assessment Summary . The hazard risk scores for each jurisdiction were consolidated and then averaged to determi ne an overall risk score at the county level. The countywide risk scores were assigned a risk descriptor (Low, Moderate, High) based on their composite score rankin g among all 19 identified hazards and by applying judgment to the final hazard rankings. 4.20 RISK ASSESSMENT SUMMARY This risk assessment represents an approximate history of estimated vulnerabilities to the communities from the hazards identified. As with any assessment involving natural or human-caused hazards, all potential events may not be represented herein, and an actual incident may occur in a vastly different way than described. This assessment, however, will be used where possible to minimize damages from these events in the future. Every type of event is different, with impacts ranging in severity to population, property or the economy. Incidents have different probabilities and magnitudes even within hazards. For example, a small earthquake will be different than a large earthquake and a moderate flood will be different from both of those. Furthermore, each participating district/jurisdiction has differing degrees of risk exposure and vulnerability to a given hazard compared to the overall county. Therefore, each district conducted a hazard ranking exercise for their community using the same methods which ensure s consistency in the overall risk assessment process. 4 -2 4.20.1 HAZARD RANKING METHODOLOGY The methodology used to rank the identified hazards for each district/jurisdiction is described below. Estimates of risk for Gallatin County were developed using methodologies promoted by FEMA’s hazard mitigation planning guidance and generated by FEMA’s HAZUS -MH risk assessment tool. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE The probability of occurrence is an estimate of how often a hazard event occurs. A review of historic events assists with this determination. Each hazard of concern is rated in accordance with the numerical ratings and definitions in Table 4-16 . Table 4-16. Probability of Hazard Occurrence - Ranking Factors Rating (Value Probability Definition 0 None Hazard event is not likely to ever occur 1 Rare Hazard event is not likely to occur within 100 2 Occasional Hazard event is likely to occur within 100 yea 3 Frequent Hazard event is likely to occur within 25 years IMPACT The impact of each hazard is considered in three categories: impact on population, impact on property, and impact on the economy. Based on documented historic losses and a subjective assessment by persons attending the district ranking meetings, an impact rating of high, m oderate , or low is assigned with a corresponding numeric value for each hazard of concern. In addition, a weighting factor is assigned to each impact category: three (3) for population, two (2) for property, and one (1) for economy. This gives the impact on population the greatest weight in evaluating the impact of a hazard. Table 4 -17 presents the numerical rating, weighted factor and description for each impact category. The impact rating definitions for population and property are consistent with the FEMA hazard mitigation methodolog y. Impact to the economy is also evaluated. Table 4-17. Numerical Values and Definitions for Impacts on Population, Property, and Economy Category Weighting Factor Low Impact (1) Moderate Impact (2) High Impact (3) Populatio 3 14% or less of developed lan area in the district is expo to a hazard due to its ex and location 15% - 29% of developed la area in the district is expo to a hazard due to its exte and location 30% or more of developed area in the district is exposed to a hazard due to its ext and location Property 2 Property exposure is 14% less of the total replacem cost for your communit Property exposure is 15% - 29% less of the total replaceme cost for your community Property exposure is 30% more of the total replacem cost for your community Economy 1 Loss estimate is 9% or l of the total replacement c for your community Loss estimate is 10% - 19% of the total replacement cos your community Loss estimate is 20% or m of the total replacement co your community RISK RANKING VALUE The risk ranking for each hazard is then calculated by multiplying the numerical value for probability of occurrence by the sum of the numerical values for impact. The equation is as follows: 4 -3 Probability of Occurrence (1, 2, or 3) x Sum of Impact Values (6 to 18) = Hazard Ranking Value. Based on the total for each hazard, a priority ranking is assigned to each hazard of concern (high, moderate , or low). The Relative Overall Risk scores for identified hazards were determined within each district. Based on the numeric range of calculated risk scores (high to low), the hazards were initially grouped into c ategorie s of High, Moderate, and Low according to the following: Risk Score (0 - 19): Low Risk Score (20 - 39): Moderate Risk Score (40 & over): High The preliminary ranking categories were reviewed by meeting attendees and suggestions for category adjustments to individual hazard rankings were considered, as appropriate. Hazard rankings were carried forward from each of the five districts/jurisdictions to develop a countywide ranking of hazards. In general, ris k scores for a given hazard were averaged for determination of a countywide risk score, subject to minor modifications by the HMP update contractor. Where a particular hazard was identified only in one or two districts (e.g., Channel Migration Mapping; Dis trict 3 – Bozeman), it was typically not evaluated further. Some exceptions to this included consideration of the Cyber- security hazard identified in Districts 1 & 3 as part of Critical Infrastructure Disruption, and the Active Killer/Shooter hazard identi fied in Districts 3 & 5 as it related to both the Terrorism and Violence hazards. Final hazard rankings for Gallatin County were presented at a public meeting on January 22, 2019. Table 4 -18 presents the hazard rankings and the correspond ing risk score values. 4 -4 Table 4-18. Gallatin County Hazard Summary Hazard Probability of Occurrence Property Impac Population Impa Economic Impa Relative Overa Risk (Score) Wildfire High High Moderate Moderate High (39) Drought High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (34) Earthquake Moderate Moderate High Moderate High (32) Critical Infrastructure Disruption Moderate Moderate High Moderate High (32) Severe Weather Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High (31) Environmental Hazar Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (26) Flooding Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (26) Communicable Disea and Bioterrorism Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (25) Hazardous Materials Release Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (23) Ground Transportatio Accident High Low Low Low Moderate (23) Urban Conflagration Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (21) Avalanche and Lands Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (16) Civil Unrest Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (16) Violence Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (16) Dam Failure Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (15) Terrorism Low Low Moderate Moderate Low (15) Aviation Accident Moderate Low Low Low Low (15) Volcano Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (13) Railroad Accident Moderate Low Low Low Low (13) Following the countywide hazard summary, Tables 4-1 9 to 4-23 provide hazard summaries for each of the five districts evaluated. For more information on the determinations, refer to the individual hazard profiles . Table 4-19. Belgrade Hazard Summary (District 4) Hazard Probability of Occurrence Property Impa Population Impa Economic Impa Relative Overa Risk (Score) Drought High Moderate High Moderate High (38) Severe Weather High Moderate High Moderate High (36) Critical Infrastructure Disrup Moderate Moderate High High High (36) Earthquake Moderate High High High High (33) Environmental Hazards High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (33) Wildfire High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (30) Flooding High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (30) Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism Moderate Low High Moderate Moderate (19) Railroad Accident Moderate Low Moderate Low Moderate (18) Hazardous Materials Releas Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (18) Aviation Accident Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate (16) Ground Transportation Acci Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (16) Community Resilience Low Moderate Moderate High Moderate (13) 4 -5 Hazard Probability of Occurrence Property Impa Population Impa Economic Impa Relative Overa Risk (Score) Violence Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (13) Avalanche and Landslide Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) Dam Failure Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (12) Volcano Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (12) Civil Unrest Low Low Moderate Moderate Low (10) Urban Conflagration Low Low Low Moderate Low (7) Terrorism Low Low Low Low Low (6) Table 4-20. Big Sky Hazard Summary (District 2) Hazard Probability of Occurrence Property Impa Population Impa Economic Impa Relative Over Risk (Score) Wildfire High High High High High (52) Limited Access High Moderate High High High (35) Critical Infrastructure Disrup Moderate Moderate High Moderate High (35) Ground Transportation Acci High Low Moderate Moderate High (32) Mass Casualty Incident High Low Moderate Moderate High (30) Hazardous Materials Releas High Low Moderate Moderate High (30) Drought Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (29) Earthquake Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (28) Urban Conflagration Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (28) Severe Weather Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (28) Avalanche and Landslide High Low Moderate Low Moderate (27) Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism Moderate Low High Moderate Moderate (23) Environmental Hazards Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (21) Flooding Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) Civil Unrest Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) Volcano Low High Moderate High Low (15) Dam Failure Moderate Low Low Moderate Low (14) Aviation Accident Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) Violence Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) Terrorism Low Low Low Moderate Low (7) 4 -6 Table 4-21. Bozeman Hazard Summary (District 3) Hazard Probability of Occurrence Property Impact Population Impact Economic Impact Relative Overa Risk (Score) Drought High Moderate High Moderate High (42) Severe Weather High Moderate High Moderate High (37) Wildfire High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (36) Critical Infrastructure Disrupti Moderate Moderate High Moderate High (34) Environmental Hazards High Moderate High Moderate High (34) Earthquake Moderate High High High High (34) Flooding High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (33) Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism Moderate Low High High High (28) Cyber Security Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (24) Hazardous Materials Release Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (22) Ground Transportation Acciden High Low Low Low Moderate (20) Urban Conflagration Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) Civil Unrest Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) Avalanche and Landslide High Low Low Low Moderate (18) Dam Failure Low High High Moderate Moderate (17) Railroad Accident Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (16) Channel Migration Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (15) Mass Casualty Incident Moderate Low Moderate Low Moderate (15) Violence Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (15) Volcano Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (12) Aviation Accident Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) Active Killer Low Low Low Low Low (11) Terrorism Low Low Moderate Moderate Low (10) Table 4-22. Manhattan and Three Forks Hazard Summary (District 5) Hazard Probability o Occurrence Property Impa Population Impa Economic Impa Relative Overa Risk (Score) Drought High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (37) Severe Weather High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (37) Wildfire High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (36) Flooding High Moderate Moderate Moderate High (30) Environmental Hazards High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (28) Earthquake Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate (28) Critical Infrastructure Disrup Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (25) Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (24) Opioid Addiction High Low Moderate Low Moderate (24) 4 -7 Hazard Probability o Occurrence Property Impa Population Impa Economic Impa Relative Overa Risk (Score) Hazardous Materials Releas Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (23) Violence Moderate Low Moderate Low Moderate (23) Mental Health High Low Low Low Moderate (22) Ground Transportation Acci High Low Low Low Moderate (21) Urban Conflagration Moderate Moderate Low Low Moderate (18) Aviation Accident Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (17) Active Shooter Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (16) Dam Failure Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (15) Railroad Accident Moderate Low Low Low Moderate (14) Volcano Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (13) Civil Unrest Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) Terrorism Low Low Moderate Low Low (9) Avalanche and Landslide Low Low Low Low Low (6) Table 4-23. West Yellowstone Hazard Summary (District 1) Hazard Probability o Occurrence Property Impa Population Impa Economic Impa Relative Overa Risk (Score) Wildfire High High High High High (49) Earthquake High High High High High (48) Critical Infrastructure Disrup High Moderate High High High (47) Severe Weather High Moderate High Moderate High (45) Ground Transportation Acci High Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (30) Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism Moderate Low High High Moderate (30) Cyber Security High Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (29) Terrorism Moderate Moderate Moderate High Moderate (26) Hazard Materials Release Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (24) Urban Conflagration Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (23) Civil Unrest Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (21) Environmental Hazards Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) Drought Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (19) Violence Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate (19) Aviation Accident Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) Volcano Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low (12) Avalanche and Landslide Moderate Low Low Low Low (12) Dam Failure Low Low Low Moderate Low (7) Flooding Low Low Low Low Low (6) 5 -1 5.0 MITIGATION STRATEGY Hazard mitigation, as defined by the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000, is any sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate the long -term risk to human life and property from hazards. The development of a mitigation strategy allows the community to create a vision for preventing future disasters, establish a common set of mitigation goals, prioritize actions, and evaluate the succe ss of such actions. The Gallatin County Mitigation Strategy is based on the results of the risk assessment and recommendations by knowledgeable community members through the All Hazards All Discipline (AHAD) Group and public meetings. The overarching mission of this mitigatio n strategy is to: / Reduce or prevent losses from disasters . Rather than wait until a disaster occurs, Gallatin County, the City of Bozeman, the City of Belgrade, the City of Three Forks, the Town of West Yellowstone, and the Town of Manhattan, have developed this strategy to move in a proactive direction in disaste r prevention. All losses cannot be entirely mitigated, however, some actions can be taken, as funding and opportunities arise, that may reduce the impacts of disasters and eventually save taxpayers’ money. The mitigation actions were developed based on dir ect input from the community and prioritized through a multi -step process. 5.1 GOALS AND OBJECTIVES Goals were defined for the purpose of this HMP update as broad -based, public policy statements that: / Represent basic desires of the community; / Encompass all aspects of community, public and private; / Are non-specific, refer ring to the quality (not the quantity) of the outcome; / Are future-oriented, and thus achievable in the future; and / Are time-independent, meaning they are not scheduled events. Goals are stated without regard for implementation ; that is, implementation cost, schedule, and means are not considered. Goals are defined before considering how to accomplish them so that the goals are not dependent on the means of achievement. Goal statements form the b asis for objectives and actions that will be used as conduit s to achieve the goals. Objectives define strategies to attain the goals and are more specific and measurable. Mitigation actions are specific actions that help achieve the goals and objectives of the plan. To facilitate the update of this plan, stakeholders reviewed the list of goals from the 201 2 Gallatin County HMP. This review was completed to ensure that the updated mitigation strategy represented a logical progression of the mitigation strat egies and implementation plans developed in previous versions of the HMP (2006, 2012). Stakeholders could use, combine, or revise the goal statements provided or develop new ones, keeping the risk assessment in mind. All six of the goal statements from the 2012 HMP were retained, with minor revisions to the exact wording for some of the goal statements . Two additional goal statements were added to address potential impacts from Severe Weather and Drought , and Critical Infrastructure Disruption . 5 -2 The following list of goals and objectives was reviewed and finalized during a regular AHAD meeting on June 26, 2018. Goal 1: Reduce Impact s from Wildfire Objective 1.1: Reduce private losses in the Wildland -Urban Interface (WUI). Objective 1.2: Increase understanding of the wildfire hazard areas. Objective 1.3: Assist property owners in completing mitigation measures. Goal 2: Reduce Impacts from Severe Weather and Drought Objective 2.1: Improve weather forecasting capabilities and information d istribution. Objective 2.2: Support coordination with state and local drought management initiatives. Goal 3: Reduce Impacts from Earthquakes Objective 3.1: Implement property protection projects to reduce impacts from earthquakes. Objective 3.2: Conduct mapping, analysis, and planning projects to reduce impacts from earthquakes. Goal 4: Reduce Impacts from Critical Infrastructure Disruption Objective 4.1: Implement projects to reduce impacts from critical infrastructure disruption. Objective 4.2: Improve emergency services communication and resiliency. Objective 4.3: Provide measures that enhance the confidentiality, integrity and availability of Cyber-data and information. Goal 5: Reduce Impacts from Flooding Objective 5.1: Implement property protection projects to reduce impacts from flooding. Objective 5.2: Conduct planning. analysis, and mapping projects to reduce impacts from flooding. Objective 5.3: Implement prevention projects to reduce impacts from flooding. Objective 5.4: Provide public education and awareness to reduce impacts from flooding. Goal 6: Reduce Losses from a Transportation or Hazardous Materials Accident Objective 6.1: Enhance emergency services to mitigate impacts from transportation or HAZMAT accident. Goal 7: Prevent Significant Loss of Life from Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism Objective 7.1: Provide public education and awareness to reduce impacts from communicable disease. Objective 7.2: Provide state and local governments with antid ote supplies. Goal 8: Promote All-Hazard Mitigation Measures Objective 8.1: Provide public education, awareness, and treatment to reduce impacts from all hazards. Objective 8.2: Enhance inter-jurisdictional coordination. Objective 8.3: Increase and enhance mental health system. Objective 8.4: Conduct training to address violence and public attacks. 5 -3 5.2 ACTION IDENTIFICATION AND PRIORITIZATION For each objective in the county’s risk mitigation strategy, one or more projects are proposed as a means of achieving the objective. In general, the types of mitigation actions can be placed in one of the following categories, which originate from the National Flood Insurance Program’s Community Rating System: / Prevention: Administrative or regulatory actions or processes that influence the way land and buildings are developed and built. / Property protection: Actions that involve the modification of existing buildings or structures to protect them from a hazard or remove them from the hazard area. / Struct ural: Actions that involve the construction of structures to reduce the impact of a hazard. / Natural resource protection: Actions that, in addition to minimizing hazard losses, also preserve or restore the functions of natural systems. / Emergency services: Actions that protect people and property during and immediately after a disaster or hazard event. / Public information/education and awareness: Actions to inform and educate citizens, elected officials, and property owners about the hazards and potential ways to mitigate them. Each of the proposed projects has value, however, time and financial constraints do not permit all the proposed actions to be implemented immediately. By prioritizing the actions, the most critical and cost- effective projects can be achieved in the short term. The prioritization of the projects serves as a guide for choosing and funding projects; however, depending on the funding sources, some actions may be best accomplished outside the priorities established in this HMP. To ensure that community goals and other factors are considered when prioritizing projects, a prioritization model that uses the following factors has been developed: cost (including management costs), feasibility (politically, socially, and environmentally), popula tion benefit, property benefit, and hazard rating. Each of the factors was ranked low, moderate, or high for each of the projects. The methods used to assign a category and the associated score can be generally defined as follows: Cost: 3 Score: Low: < $10,000 (including management) 2 Score: Moderate : $10,000 to $50,000 1 Score: High: > $50,000 Feasibility: 3 Score: High – high community support (politically, socially, environmentally) 2 Score: Moderate – mixed community support 1 Score: Low – minimal community support Population Benefit: 3 Score: High: > 50% of population benefits (existing or future) 2 Score: Moderate : 5 to 50% of population benefits 1 Score: Low: < 5% of population benefits 5 -4 Property Benefit: 3 Score: High: > 50% of property benefits (existing or future) 2 Score: Moderate : 5 to 50% of property benefits 1 Score: Low: < 5% of property benefits Hazard Rating: 3 Score: High (from risk assessment summary) 2 Score: Moderate 1 Score: Low Table 5 -1 provides a list of id entified projects for the 2018 HMP update, and prioritization scoring for each project . Documentation of changes in the list of projects , from the 2012 HMP to this 2018 HMP update, is provided after each goal, and summarized in Section 5.2.1 . Table 5-1. Goals, Objectives, and Prioritized Mitigation Actions (Projects) Goal 1: Reduce Impacts from Wildfire Objective Project Cost Feasibil Populati Benefit Proper Benef Hazar Rating Score Objective 1.1: Reduce private losses in the Wildland -Urban Interface (WUI). Expand implementation of Fire Adapted Community Programs for communities in WUI interface and intermix areas with high fire exposure such as Bridger Canyon, Bozeman Pass, Bear Canyon, Clarkston, Big Sky and West Yellowstone. 3 3 2 2 3 13 Develop standard Defensible Space Requirements for the county utilizing home defense zones in alignment with DNRC. 3 2 2 2 3 12 Review and update Subdivision Regulations for wildfire risk in all communities. 3 1 3 2 3 12 Research sustainable approaches for county wide Fuels Reduction program to support the communities in intermix areas along the Bridger, Gallatin and Madison Ranges. 1 1 3 2 3 10 Objective 1.2: Increase understanding of the wildfire hazard areas. Maintain current Fire Fuels Mapping with integration of CWPP revision with Hazard 3 3 3 2 3 14 5 -5 Mitigation Plan to ensure a 5 year update cycle. Provide wildland fire statistics to DNRC monthly to maintain accurate wildfire history database for Gallatin County. 3 3 2 2 3 13 Objective 1.3: Assist property owners in completing mitigation measures. Establish mitigation position to support Individual WUI Assessments across the county. 2 3 2 2 3 12 Research methods to establish and maintain a homeowner fuels reduction program. 1 2 1 2 3 9 Nearly all the projects for Goal 1 were retained in this update. Project prioritization scores were adjusted slightly to reflect changes in project status or partial completion. Each of these projects represents an ongoing activity that requires periodic attention as fuel levels change, wildland areas are developed, and fire incidents occur. A notable exclusion in the updated project list is the CWPP which was updated and included as an Attachment to this HMP update. Goal 2: Reduce Impacts from Severe Weather and Drought Objective Project Cost Feasibil Populati Benefit Proper Benef Hazar Rating Score Objective 2.1: Improve weather forecasting capabilities and information distribution. Monitor opportunities to establish local radar to support e nhanced weather forecasts in the Gallatin Valley and Gallatin Canyon. 1 3 3 2 3 12 Continue supporting annual severe weather education and preparedness program rotating among all communities. 1 3 3 2 3 12 Objective 2.2: Support coordination with state and local drought management initiatives. City of Bozeman – Continue expansion of d rought Communication and Outreach Program. 1 3 2 2 3 11 City of Bozeman – Continue expansion of W ater Use Education . 1 3 3 3 3 13 City of Bozeman – Continue research and implementation of a quifer 3 1 2 2 3 11 5 -6 Storage and Recovery project . This is a new goal in the HMP to address impacts resulting from severe weather and drought. Enhanced weather forecasts and Severe weather education and preparedness were retained as projects from the previous plan as ongoing efforts. Three new projects were identified to address drought management, education and comm./outreach. Goal 3: Reduce Impacts from Earthquakes Objective Project Cost Feasibil Populati Benefit Proper Benef Hazar Rating Score Objective 3.1: Implement Property Protection Projects to Reduce Impacts from Earthquakes Continue education and distribution of mitigation opportunities for c ritical facilities tie downs in older communities such as Belgrade, Bozeman, Manhattan and Three Forks. 1 1 3 3 3 11 Continue education and distribution of mitigation opportunities for Critical facilities retrofits in all communities. 1 1 3 3 3 11 Continue education and distribution of mitigation opportunities for anchoring transformers and generators at critical facilities. 2 3 2 2 3 12 Expansion joints for utilities 1 1 3 2 3 10 Objective 3.2: Conduct Mapping / Analysis / Planning Projects to Reduce Impacts from Earthquakes Continue Earthquake retrofit education and expansion of online tools. 3 3 3 3 3 15 Research earthquake retrofit financial incentives to offset local match requirements. 2 1 3 2 3 11 Support c ommercial structures seismic surveys . 1 1 3 3 3 11 Conduct seismic bridge inspections . 1 1 3 3 3 11 Each of the projects for Goal 3 (Goal 2 in previous HMP) was retained in this HMP update, with minor adjustments to the prioritization. Given the age and condition of certain critical infrastructure, these projects are viewed as ongoing efforts. 5 -7 Goal 4: Reduce Impacts from Critical Infrastructure Disruption Objective Project Cost Feasibil Populati Benefit Proper Benef Hazar Rating Score Objective 4.1 : Implement Projects to Reduce Impacts from Critical Infrastructure Disruption Develop tools to support p rioritization and Harden ing of Critical Infrastructure to support continuity of operations for all jurisdiction. 1 1 2 3 3 10 Objective 4.2: Improve Emergency Services Communication and Resiliency. Expand education on vulnerability and importance of Critical Infrastructure Backup Systems (Facilities and Communication) to increase all agencies continuity of operation. 2 2 3 2 3 12 Objective 4.3: Provide Measures that Enhance the Confidentiality, Integrity and Availability of Cyber -data and Information Improve the awareness and understanding of cybersecurity risk to all jurisdictions. 2 2 3 2 3 12 This is a new goal in the HMP to reduce impacts resulting from critical infrastructure disruption. Two projects are retained from the previous HMP (Prioritize/Harden critical infrastructure and Critical infrastructure backup systems ). A new project was added to address cybersecurity concerns. Goal 5: Reduce Impacts from Flooding Objective Project Cost Feasibil Populati Benefit Proper Benef Hazar Rating Score Objective 5.1: Implement Property Protection Projects to Reduce Impacts from Flooding Expand knowledge of Woody Debris Removal process from Rivers for Big Sky, Gallatin Gateway, Belgrade and Three Forks. 2 1 2 1 2 8 Develop and implement Bank Stabilization and Flood Control Projects in mapped floodplains such as Three Forks. 1 1 2 2 2 8 Continued support for Stormwater Management 2 2 3 2 2 11 5 -8 projects in Bozeman, Belgrade and Manhattan. Research and implement projects to mitigate exposure to Critical Facilities . 1 1 2 1 2 7 Objective 5.2: Conduct Planning / Analysis / Mapping Projects to Reduce Impacts from Flooding Support c hannel Migration Zone (CMZ) Mapping projects on the Gallatin, Madison and Jefferson Rivers and their tributaries. 2 2 2 2 2 10 Alternative Flood Mitigation Measures Study 2 1 2 2 2 9 Review and update Dam Failure Mapping with modern models for Big Sky, Belgrade, Gallatin Gateway, Four Corners, Willow Creek and Three Forks. 1 2 2 2 2 9 Objective 5.3: Implement Prevention Projects to Reduce Impacts from Flooding Develop and maintain Floodplain Regulations for mapped floodplains in Gallatin County, Bozeman, Belgrade and Three Forks. 3 1 2 2 2 10 Research Buy- out/Relocation Feasibility options for any repetitive loss properties. 1 1 1 2 2 7 Objective 5.4: Provide Public Education and Awareness to Reduce Impacts from Flooding Continue annual education campaign on f lood insurance education . 3 3 3 2 2 13 All projects re t ained from the previous HMP (Goal 3), and one new project was added : Channel Migration Zone (CMZ) Mapping . Dam failure (breach) mapping project(s) are included, although inundation mapping for all high -hazard dams located within Gallatin County, or located outside the county but having significant flood impacts within the county, has been completed. Pr oject prioritization was adjusted accordingly. 5 -9 Goal 6: Reduce Losses from a Transportation or Hazardous Materials Accident Objective Project Cost Feasibil Populati Benefit Proper Benef Hazar Rating Score Objective 6.1: Enhance Emergency Services to Mitigate Impacts from Transportation or HAZMAT Accident Develop Emergency/Evacuation Transportation Plan for communities. 2 3 3 2 2 12 Continue use and support of EPlan for Fixed Site Mapping (TIER) for all communities in the County. 3 2 2 2 2 11 Develop, train and equip. emergency responders for dealing with Mass Casualty Incidents (MCIs) with buildout of regional response plan and equipment. 3 2 3 2 2 12 Two projects were retained from the previous HMP (Goal 4), and a new project added to address Mass Casualty Incidents . Goal 7: Prevent Significant Loss of Life from Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism Objective Project Cost Feasibil Populati Benefit Proper Benef Hazar Rating Score Objective 7.1: Provide Public Education and Awareness to Reduce Impacts from Communicable Disease Promote public education on preventing communicable disease 3 3 3 1 2 12 Continue providing training to Health Dept. on incident response. 2 2 3 1 2 10 Development and sustainment of Medical Surveillance System . 3 2 3 1 2 11 Objective 7.2: Provide State and local governments with antidote supplies Continue review and sustainment of Chempack program for the region. 3 2 3 1 2 11 Two projects were retained from the previous HMP (Goal 5), Medical Surveillance System andChempack Plan . Two new projects were added to : 1) address public education on preventing communicable disease and, 2) provide training to Public Health Dept. staff . 5 -10 Goal 8: Promote All-Hazard Mitigation Measures Objective Project Cost Feasibil Populati Benefit Proper Benef Hazar Rating Score Objective 8.1: Provide Public Education, Awareness and Treatment to Reduce Impacts from All Hazards Continue sustainment and expansion of Community Notification System with residents and for internal use by organizations. 2 3 3 3 3 14 Continue promotion of overall Community Preparedness Program in the County and all 5 cities. 2 3 3 3 2 13 Evaluate expansion and continue sustainment of Early Warning System for Dams (Middle Creek in place). 1 2 3 2 2 10 Objective 8.2: Enhance Inter -jurisdictional Coordination Improve health care system communication in county. 2 2 3 1 2 10 Improve emergency response coordination between Gallatin /Madison Counties in Big Sky Area . 2 2 2 2 2 10 Objective 8.3: Increase and enhance mental health system Expand and sustain mental health treatment facilities throughout the county. 2 3 3 1 2 11 Objective 8.4 : Training to address violence and public attacks Provide training and programs to support response to Active Killer / Shooter events . 2 3 3 2 2 12 This goal had the most change in projects from the previous HMP (Goal 6). Critical Infrastructure projects were moved to their own grouping under Goal 4: Reduce Impacts from Critical Infrastructure Disruption . The Emergency Alert System was renamed Community Notification System . The Severe weather preparedness project was moved to Goal 2: Reduce Impacts from Severe Weather and Drought . Updated HAZUS analysis is removed as it was completed as part of this HMP update .. Enhanced weather forecasting and NOAA weather radios were both deleted. New projects include: Early Warning System for Dams , Improve Coordination between Gallatin/Madison Counites , Provide and support mental health treatment facilities , and Provide training to address Active Killer / Shooter events . 5 -11 5.2.1 SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO MITIGATION ACTIONS Many of the projects in Goal 1 – Reduce Impacts from Wildfire , remained the same in the HMP update. These activities are primarily ongoing projects that needs to be addressed on a recurring basis as fuels grow, houses are built, and new incidents occur. The CWPP, which has been updated and made an Attachment to this HMP update, is meant to be a “living” document that needs to be updated frequently along with the wildfire history database. Goal 2 - Reduce Impacts from Severe Weather and Drought , was broken-out as a separate goal for this HMP update. Two projects aimed at improving weather forecast ing and enhanced distribution of severe weather information were retained from the previous HMP. Three new projects were added to support the City of Bozeman’s drought management program via communication and outreach, water use education, and aquifer stor age and recovery. The projects i n Goal 3 – Reduce Impacts from Earthquakes , remained the same as t hese are viewed as ongoing effor ts given the age of the infrastructure and buildings in the county. * Note that this was Goal 2 in the 2012 HMP . Goal 4 – Reduce Impacts from Critical Infrastructure Disruption , was added as a separate goal in this HMP update. Two projects were retained from the previous HMP to address critical infrastructure by hardening assets and developing backup systems for critical infras tructure to improve operational continuity of critical facilities and increase overall disaster resiliency. Projects to address impacts from flooding were all retained from the previous HMP under Goal 5 (Goal 3 in 2012 HMP ). A specific project for Three Forks under Objective 5.1 has been identified to redirect a newly identified split flow in the Jefferson River through channelization and increasing conveyance structures to return the flow to the Jefferson River. One new pro ject was added to support Channel Migration Zones (CMZ) mapping, which can be used as a land management tool to help assess river channel migration potential and determine relative risk to infrastructure and real property. Goal 6 – Reduce Losses from a Transportation or Hazardous Materials Accident , retained projects from the 2012 HMP to develop emergency transportation and evacuation plans and to map facilities (fixed sites) where hazardous materials are located via TIER reporting. A new project was add ed to provide training and equipment to first responders and emergency personnel to address Mass Casualty Incidents (MCIs). * Note that this was Goal 4 in the 2012 HMP . Two projects were retained from the previous HMP to prevent significant loss of life r esulting f rom Communicable Disease or Bioterrorism (Goal 7). Two new projects were added to address public education on preventing communicable diseas e and provide training to Public Health Dep artment staff. * Note that this was Goal 5 in the 2012 HMP . 5 -12 Goal 8 – Promote All-hazard Mitigation Measures , projects were changed the most between the 2012 and 2018 plans . Universal Power Supplies for Communications was removed as that issue has largely been resolved. The Emergency Alert System Plan was retained however the name has been changed to Community Notification System. This is a mass notification product provided by Everbridge (www.everbridge.com ) that officials in Gallatin County can use to provide urgent information to the community. The project for an Early Warning System on Middle Creek (Hyalite) Dam was broadened to all high-hazard dams located in the county or located outside the county but have a significant breach inundation effect in the cou nty. Other new projects were added to support Community Preparedness , improve Coordination between Gallatin & Madison Counties in Big Sky, provide and support Mental Health Treatment Facilities , and provide training to address Active Killer / Shooter incid ents . 5.3 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN This section outlines development of the final mitigation implementation plan. The implementation plan consists of the specific projects, or actions, designed to meet the plan’s goals. Over time the implementation of these projects will be tracked as a measure of demonstrated progress on meeting the plan’s goals. 5.3.1 PROGRESS ON PREVIOUS MITIGATION ACTIONS Gallatin County and communities within the five planning districts/jurisdictions ha ve been successful in implementing actions identified in the 201 2 HMP Mitigation Strategy, thus working steadily towards meeting the plan goals. The 2012 HMP mitigation strategy contained 31 separate mitigation actions for Gallatin County and/or the incorporated cities and towns within the county . Roughly two -thirds of the mitigation actions identified (21 of 31) have been either fully or partially completed since 2012 . Some highlights of project implementation for each goal in the 2012 HMP include: Prevent Losses from Wildfires (Goal 1, 20 12 HMP): / Fire Adapted Communities’ resources are widely available across the county from multiple sources including: GCEM, Gallatin Valley Land Trust, MSU -Extension, and USFS Custer Gallatin NF. / Gallatin County Subdivision Regulations (March 5, 2019), Appendix I.7 & I.8, include s standards and requirements for subdivisions proposed in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) that address: site access and evacuation, water supply, vegetation management, defensible space, fuel loading, and fuel breaks/greenbelts. Examples of WUI Covenants are also provided. / Several local wildfire mitigation organizations have been developed in West Yellowstone and Big Sky areas in concert with FireSafe Montana to address fuels reduction projects. / The CWPP has been updated and provided as an integral Attachment to this HMP update. Within the CWPP, fire fuels mapping, historic wildfire mapping, and Relative Wildfire Hazard and WUI maps have all been provided or updated. / Gallatin County researching the addition of a Preparedness and Mitigation Manager position. 5 -13 Reduce Potential Losses from Earthquake s (Goal 2, 2012 HMP): / GCEM provided educational campaign on ReadyGallatin.com to provide information on earthquakes and community resources for prepare dness. / Discussion topic at AHAD meetings to increase awareness of funding available for seismic retrofits and equipment tie -downs via the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP). / Using funding from a FEMA grant, s tructural upgrades were made in the summers of 2013 and 2014 to the buildings that make up the Creative Arts Complex at the MSU-Bozeman campus. Built in 1974, the Creative Arts Complex consists of Haynes, Cheever and Howard Halls and houses the College of Arts and Architecture, School of Art and the School of Music, and College of Agriculture and Technology Education programs, as well as campus Registrar-scheduled classrooms and lecture/performance halls . More information on this project can be found in the MSU Annex (Annex A), which is part of this HMP update. Reduce Damages f rom Flooding (Goal 3, 2012 HMP): / Gallatin County Planning Department website http://gallatincomt.virtualtownhall.net /Planning continues to include links to several publications relevant to flood insurance. / Staff from Gallatin County, City of Bozeman, and Montana DNRC conducted public mailings and open houses in March of 2018 related to the revised preliminary flood stud y for the West Gallatin River. Flood insurance was discussed with attendees at the open house. / Staff from Gallatin County, City of Bozeman, and Montana DNRC along with a local insurance agent held a class for area realtors in October of 2017 and flood ins urance was discussed at length. / Gallatin County continues to work on designing and permitting a new bridge to replace the existing Nixon Gulch Bridge, critical infrastructure that crosses the Gallatin River. / Gallatin County applied for grant funding to rep lace Meridian Bridge across the Jefferson River, another important piece of transportation infrastructure. / Channel Migration Zone (CMZ) studies were completed on the Gallatin, East Gallatin, Madison, and Jefferson rivers, highlighting additional hazards th at residents of those areas should be made aware of, as well as hazards that should be considered as part of infrastructure planning processes. / The dam inundation maps for Middle Creek Dam have been updated and published along with a study. / Gallatin County Road and Bridge Department as well as public works staff from municipal governments continue to inspect and maintain culverts and other stream crossings as part of their regular operations – this includes debris removal. / A large beaver dam was identified in late summer 2017 at Mystic Lake. This structure presents a flood concern in the Bozeman Creek drainage due to the amount of water impounded behind the beaver dam. Multiple government agencies collaborated on this project to remove the hazard. / Public education related to the preliminary flood studies for the West Gallatin River and Bozeman Creek (and its tributaries) continues. These studies use current information and modern technology to identify areas that may be prone to flood risk. 5 -14 / LiDAR data was acquired in several areas of Gallatin County (Bear Creek, East Gallatin River, Gallatin River, Madison River, Jefferson River) to facilitate future flood studies that will take place over the next several years. / As part of these floodplain map updates, Gallatin County and the City of Bozeman have also begun to review their local floodplain management ordinances and will carefully consider whether requirements that exceed the Montana minimum standards are appropriate to enact within their communities. / Gallatin County, City of Bozeman, City of Belgrade, City of Three Forks, and the Town of Manhattan remain participants in the NFIP. / Gallatin County continues to provide a Map Information Service to help inform the public of flood related hazards that could jeopardize life and property and continues to make floodplain-related information available through publicly accessible , interactive mappers. / Hydrologic study conducted for Madison and Jefferson Rivers for update of FEMA Floodplain Maps in Three Forks. Based on results of new the FEMA flood study, Three Forks will pursue flood mitigation work near the frontage road (HWY 2) to redirect a newly identified split flow from the J efferson River. The work may include channelization and increasing conveyance structures to allow flows to return to the J efferson River prior to entering into the City’s limits. The City of Three Forks is currently working with Great West Engineering to design the project. Reduce Losses from a Transportation or Hazardous Materials Accident (Goal 4 , 2012 HMP): / Gallatin County GIS completed a 911 Structure Mapping project to re -address non-compliant structures to State of Montana standards and Enhanced 911 National Emergency Numbering Association guidelines. / A Mass Casualty Incident (MCI) Plan was completed by Gallatin County in 2014 and updated in November 2017. Prevent Significant Loss of Life from Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism (Goal 5 , 2012 HMP): / Continued work on Chempack Plan education within Gallatin County. / Medical Surveillance system is currently in use. / Gallatin City -County Health Department Strategic Plan prepared (J uly 1, 2017 – June 30, 2020). Promote All -hazards Mitigation Measures (Goal 6 , 2012 HMP): / Updated HAZUS analyses completed as part of this HMP update. / Numerous resources for emergency and disaster preparedness are readily available from ReadyGallatin.com or HealthyGallatin.org. / Deployed the Community Notification System, a mass notification product provided by Everbridge to provide urgent information to the community. / Gallatin and Madison Counties researching consolidation of emergency management, hazmat and fire warden programs in the Big Sky area. 5 -15 5.3.2 MITIGATION IMPLEMENTATION PLAN The results of the 2018 project identification and prioritization meetings are summarized below in Table 5 -2 . Forty projects that scored 10 or higher are shown in the table and ranked by priority score. Where applicable, notes regarding status of project implementation are provided. Table 5-2 Implementation Plan for Mitigation Actions in Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities/Towns Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Fundin g Priority Score Notes - Status Continue Earthquake retrofit education and expansion of online tools. (Objective 3.2) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management FEMA 15 / Educational campaign on ReadyGallatin.com / Discussion topic at AHAD meetings to inform junior taxing districts of HMGP Maintain current Fire Fuels Mapping with integration of CWPP revision with Hazard Mitigation Plan to ensure a 5 year update cycle. (Objective 1.2) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, DNRC, Forest Service, GIS DNRC, FEMA 1 4 / Continue sustainment and expansion of Community Notification System with residents and for internal use by organizations. (Objective 8.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities (Bozeman) Emergency Management, 911. HR, IT FEMA, General Fund 1 4 / Developed local area p lan in 2011, Gallatin County / Implemented Community Notification System (Everbridge) Expand implementation of Fire Adapted Community Programs for communities in WUI interface and intermix areas with high fire exposure such as Bridger Canyon, Bozeman Pass, Bear Canyon, Clarkston, Big Sky and West Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities (West Yellowstone) Fire Service, Emergency Management, DNRC DNRC, FEMA, General Fund 13 5 -16 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Fundin g Priority Score Notes - Status Yellowstone (Objective 1.1) Provide wildland fire statistics to DNRC monthly to maintain accurate wildfire history database for Gallatin County. (Objective 1.2) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, 911 , DNRC DNRC 1 3 / Provided monthly Continue expansion of Water Use Education. (Objective 2.2) City of Bozeman Public Works Dept. Water Conservation U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) WaterSMART grants 13 Continue promotion of overall Community Preparedness Program in the County and all 5 cities. (Objective 8.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, Elected Officials FEMA 13 Continue annual education campaign on flood insurance education. (Objective 5.4) Gallatin County and Bozeman, Belgrade, Three Forks Emergency Management, Floodplain Managers FEMA 13 Develop standard Defensible Space Requirements for the county utilizing home defense zones in alignment with DNRC. (Objective 1.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Planning, Fire Service DNRC 12 Review and update Subdivision Regulations for wildfire risk in all communities. (Objective 1.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Planning, Fire Service Fees 12 5 -17 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Fundin g Priority Score Notes - Status Establish mitigation position to support Individual WUI Assessments across the county. (Objective 1.3) Gallatin County Emergency Management, Fire Service DNRC , FEMA 12 Continue supporting annual severe weather education and preparedness program rotating among all communities. (Objective 2.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, NWS NWS 12 Monitor opportunities to establish local radar to support enhance d weather forecasts in the Gallatin Valley and Gallatin Canyon. (Objective 2.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, NWS , Airport NWS , FAA, 12 Continue education and distribution of mitigation opportunities for anchoring transformers and generators at critical facilities. (Objective 3.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facilities FEMA 12 Expand education on vulnerability and importance of Critical Infrastructure Backup Systems (Facilities and Communication) to increase all agencies continuity of Gallatin County and Incorporate d Cities IT, 911, Facilities FEMA, General Fund 12 5 -18 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Fundin g Priority Score Notes - Status operation. (Facilities/Comm.) Ops. Continuity . (Objective 4.2) Improve the awareness and understanding of cybersecurity risk to all jurisdictions. (Objective 4.3) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities IT FEMA 12 Develop Emergency/Evac uation Transportation Plan for communities. (Objective 6.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management FEMA, General Fund 1 2 Develop, train and equip. emergency responders for dealing with Mass Casualty Incidents (MCIs) with buildout of regional response plan and equipment (Objective 6.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, Fire Service, Emergency Medical Services, Hospitals DOT FEMA 12 Promote public education on preventing communicable disease. (Objective 7.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Department U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Svc. NIH CDC 12 Provide training and programs to support response to Active Killer / Shooter events. (Objective 8.4) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Law Enforcement Health Department Medical Facilities U.S. Dept. of Justice 12 Continue expansion of drought Communication and Outreach Program. (Objective 2.2) City of Bozeman Public Works Water Conservation FEMA U.S. Dept. of Agriculture 1 1 Continue research and City of Bozeman Public Works Water Conservation USBR WaterSMART 1 1 5 -19 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Fundin g Priority Score Notes - Status implementation of aquifer Storage and Recovery project. (Objective 2.2) Continue education and distribution of mitigation opportunities for critical facilities tie downs in older communities such as Belgrade, Bozeman, Manhattan and Three Forks. (Objective 3.1) Belgrade, Bozeman, Manhattan, Three Forks Facilities FEMA 11 Continue education and distribution of mitigation opportunities for Critical facilities retrofits in all communities. (Objective 3.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facilities FEMA 11 Research earthquake retrofit financial incentives to offset local match requirements. (Objective 3.2) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management MT DES 11 Support commercial structures seismic surveys. (Objective 3.2) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facilities FEMA 11 Conduct Seismic Bridge Inspections . (Objective 3.2) Gallatin County Road and Bridge DOT 11 / Gallatin County in process of developing bridge replacement program for out of specification bridges Continue use and support of EPlan for Fixed Site Mapping Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management DEQ PHMSA 11 5 -20 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Fundin g Priority Score Notes - Status (TIER) for all communities in the County. (Objective 6.1) Continue review and sustainment of Chempack program for the region. (Objective 7.2) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Dept. DPPHS CDC 11 / Working on education of Chempack program within Gallatin County Development and sustainment of Medical Surveillance System. (Objective 7.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Dept. Medical Facilities DPPHS 11 Expand and sustain mental health treatment facilities throughout the county. (Objective 8.3) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Department, Law Enforcement DPPHS 11 Research sustainable approaches for county wide Fuels Reduction program to support the communities in intermix areas along the Bridger, Gallatin and Madison Ranges. (Objective 1.1) Gallatin County Emergency Management FEMA DNRC 10 Expansion J oint for Utilities . (Objective 3.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Public Works, Facilities FEMA 10 Develop tools to support prioritization and Hardening of Critical Infrastructure to support continuity of operations for all Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities IT, 911, Facilities FEMA, General Fund 1 0 5 -21 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Fundin g Priority Score Notes - Status jurisdiction. (Objective 4.1) Support channel Migration Zone (CMZ) Mapping projects on the Gallatin, Madison and Jefferson Rivers and their tributaries . (Objective 5.2) Gallatin County, Three Forks GIS Dept., Floodplain Managers FEMA DNRC 10 Develop and maintain Floodplain Regulations for mapped floodplains in Gallatin County, Bozeman, Belgrade and Three Forks. (Objective 5.3) Gallatin County, Bozeman, Belgrade, Three Forks Floodplain Managers DNRC 10 Continue providing training to Health Dept. on incident response. (Objective 7.1) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Dept. DPHHS 10 Evaluate expansion and continue sustainment of Early Warning System for Dams (Middle Creek in place). (Objective 8.1) Gallatin County, Belgrade, Three Forks Emergency Management FEMA DNRC 10 Improve emergency response coordination between Gallatin/Madison Counties in Big Sky Area. Gallatin and Madison Counties Emergency Management FEMA 10 Develop and implement Bank Stabilization and Flood Control Projects in mapped floodplains such as Three Forks. Gallatin County, Three Forks FEMA 8 Jefferson River – Three Forks Project 5 -22 5.4 EXISTING PROGRAMS The approval of this plan recognizes the role of mitigation in Gallatin County, Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan, Three Forks and West Yellowstone. Through adoption of this plan by the political subdivisions, the hazard information and recommendations presented in this plan will be available for incorporation into current and future planning initiatives by each jurisdiction, particularly growth policies, capital improvement plans, zoning regulations, and subdivision regulations. It is recognized that this document is not a regulating plan, but rather a consolidated look at hazards present in communities that each community can utilize to further prepare themselves with. All planning departments participated in the development of this plan. Several jurisdictions had planning documents under development concurrently (see section 3.6) with this plan and worked to ensure the plans were aligned. It is not perceived by stakeholders that development since the 2012 plan has altered the overall risk present anyplace in the County. All areas of the County face multiple hazards, many of which require significant work to mitigate to any measurable degree. 5.4.1 GROWTH POLICIES Agencies within Gallatin County recognize the substantial growth within the County and the associated challenges that come with that. It is understood that the political subdivisions adopting this plan will utilize this plan as a reference when developing, updating and implementing their growth policies. The Hazard Mitigation Plan provides a community ranking of hazards present in the communities for the political subdivisions to utilize in growth related decisions. 5.4.2 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PLANS Agencies within Gallatin County that utilize a capital improvement plan are encouraged to compare their capital assets against the hazards identified in this plan. Ideally, capital infrastructure with significant exposure to an identified hazard will be identified as such. High exposure infrastructure should then be evaluated for mitigations to reduce that exposure, methods to fund the mitigation and sc heduled for implementation. 5.4.3 ZONING REGULATIONS In areas where zoning exists, zoning boards are expected to evaluate land use designations against the identified hazards in this plan. Ideally, when a designated land use presents significant exposure between its intended use and an identified hazard, consideration should be given during zoning review on the designated land use. 5 -23 5.4.4 SUBDIVISION REGULATIONS The political subdivisions adopting this plan are expected to utilize the hazards identified in this pla n when developing their subdivision review process. Ideally, applicants will demonstrate in their subdivision application how they are mitigating exposure to significant hazards. It’s expected that this step is an established part of the subdivision application and review process. 5.4.5 ADDITIONAL SUPPORT The All Hazards All Discipline (AHAD) group is a standing committee with regular meetings open to anyone with the primary mission of preparing our communities for disasters. Additional support for mitigation will be encouraged by the participating jurisdictions planning departments through building codes, subdivision review, and land use permits. The many organizations devoted to sustainable communities and the protection of natural resources will be encouraged to use this plan and support its goals. Hazard specific resources are available through many organizations. Gallatin County Emergency Management (readygallatin.com) serves as a cleaning house for connecting requests for assistance with the correct technical resource. 5.4.6 TECHNICAL RESOURCES MAP RESOURCES Map products change weekly in many cases. Real time online maps are available below. Gallatin County Mapper http://webapps.gallatin.mt.gov/mappers/ Bozeman Community Development Map https://gisweb.bozeman.net/Html5Viewer/?viewer=plannin g Bozeman Floodplain Map https://gisweb.bozeman.net/Html5Viewer/?viewer=floodpl ain Gallatin County Floodplain Map http://gis.gallatin.mt.gov/floodplainmap/viewer/ Belgrade Zoning Map http://ci.belgrade.mt.us/planning/zoning_map.pdf Planning Coordination Committee http://gis.gallatin.mt.gov/webmaps/?map=PCC&lat=45.720 00&lon=-111.13900&scale=288895&l4=-1&l3=-1 Manhattan Zoning Map https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57fd10961b631b05cf 5bee3e/t/58f68567d1758e4e9eb05571/1492551021221/4.1 2.17+Manhattan+Zone+Map.png Three Forks Floodplain https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search?AddressQuery=three%2 0forks%2C%20mt#searchresultsanchor 5 -24 PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT RESOURCES Organization Phone Web Gallatin County Planning Department (406) 582-3130 https://gallatincomt.virtualtownhall.net/planning-community- development Belgrade Planning Departmen (406) 388-3783 http://ci.belgrade.mt.us/planning/ Bozeman Planning Departme (406) 582-2260 https://www.bozeman.net/government/planning Manhattan Building Department (406) 284-3235 http://www.townofmanhattan.com/building-zoning Three Forks Zoning & Plannin (406) 285-3431 https://www.threeforksmontana.us/zoning-planning Town of West Yellowstone (406) 646-7795 https://www.townofwestyellowstone.com/government ents/administration-finance/ MITIGATION RESOURCES Floodplains / http://dnrc.mt.gov/divisions/water/operations/floodplain- management / https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-management / https://www.readygallatin.com/community- resources/preparedness-information/flooding-in-gallatin- county/ Wildfire / http://dnrc.mt.gov/divisions/forestry/fire-and- aviation/fire-prevention-and-preparedness/home-fire- risk / https://www.readygallatin.com/community- resources/preparedness-information/wildfire-in-gallatin- county/ Earthquakes / https://www.readygallatin.com/community- resources/preparedness-information/montana-is- earthquake-country/ Hazardous Materials / https://www.readygallatin.com/community- resources/preparedness-information/hazardous- materials/ Violent Attacks / https://www.readygallatin.com/community- resources/preparedness-information/active-shooter- response/ 6 -1 6.0 PLAN MAINTENANCE PROCEDURES As with all plans, the periodic plan updates are required to maintain relevance. The Gallatin County AHAD group is ultimately responsible for ensuring this plan is kept up to date. The AHAD group meets bi-monthly and is responsible for coordinating emergency planning issues for the county and communities. Given the broad representation of agencies and jurisdictions, this committee is a good fit, has many members that participated in the plan development. All AHAD group meetings are open to the public. 6.1 PLAN MONITORING, EVALUATION, AND UPDATES This plan will be maintained by Gallatin County Emergency Management and the AHAD group. This group has representatives from local public safety departments and private entities , a ll of whom were active in the development of this plan. The HMP will be reviewed annually at one of the AHAD meetings . During this meeting, the AHAD group will review the goals, objectives, and projects, as needed, such as when a mitigation grant application opportunity exists, to determine if the actions for which funding exist are proceeding as planned and if new projects should be initiated. The AHAD group will review any new risk information and modify the plan as indicated by the emergence of new vulnerabilities. Review of ongo ing projects will be conducted to determine their status, their practicality, and which actions should be revised. If needed, site visits will be conducted, and/or relevant state or federal program specialists will be invited to speak to the AHAD group and local officials regarding mitigation opportunities. Should federal mitigation grants be received, it is the responsibility of the jurisdiction and/or agency receiving the grant to meet all reporting requirements, unless alternative arrangements have been made. Annual updates should be made, and AHAD group approval may then take place at a subsequent meeting. As hazard information is added or updated, events occur, and projects are completed, the plan will be updated. Each year, a notice of approval will be sent to Montana Disaster & Emergency Services by Gallatin County Emergency Management, and if major changes take place, a revised version of the plan will also be submitted. Every five years, an update to the plan will be submitted to Montana Disaster & Emergency Services (MT -DES) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Regiona l Office for their approval. The next formal submission will occur in 2024 . To provide enough time for a full update before this plan expires, the following schedule is recommended: / Hazard Mitigation Planning Grant Application Preparations: late -2021 / Hazard Mitigation Planning Grant Application: early -2022 / Contracting for Professional or Technical Services (if needed): May-J uly 2022 / Plan Reviews and Modifications: September 2022 - December 2023 / Montana DES and FEMA Reviews: March-June 2024 / Final Revisions and Adoption: August 2024 / Final Plan Approval: September 2024 To facilitate the update process, annual updates to the plan are recommended. Table 6 -1 shows the schedule of plan updates. All jurisdictions must participate in the plan update process for the plan to remain approvable for each jurisdiction. 6 -2 Table 6-1. Schedule of Plan Updates Plan Section Post- Disaste Annuall Every 5 Years Annual Report to Montana DES X X Adoption Documentation X X X Introduction X Planning Process X X X Hazard Identification X X Critical Facilities X Buildings X Infrastructure X Economy X Land Use and Future Development X Vulnerability Assessment Methodology X Hazard Profiles X X X Risk Assessment Summary X Goals, Objectives, and Proposed Actions X X X Action Prioritization X X X Implementation Plan X X X Plan Maintenance Procedures X 6.2 PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT Public involvement is an integral component of this plan. To encourage continued participation, comments can be directed to the Gallatin County All Hazards All Discipline (AHAD) Chairperson. This committee can be reached through Gallatin County Emergency Management at: Gallatin County Emergency Management 219 E Tamarack Bozeman, MT 59715 406-5 48-0111 Comments will be considered during the annual review of this plan. The public is also encouraged to attend the annual plan review meeting. If needed, a special AHAD subcommittee will be developed to hold public meetings and coordinate plan changes and comments . ANNEX A MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY - BOZEMAN April 2019 Montana state university Gallatin county, montana Hazard mitigation plan update Photo Credit: Montana State University MSU ANNEX TOC-1 -A TABLE OF CONTENTS – ANNEX A 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 6-1-1 A 2.0 PLANNING PROCESS ....................................................................................................................................................... 2-1 A 2.1 Project Stakeholders ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 2-1 A 2.2 Existing Plans, Studies, and Policies ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 2-1 A 3.0 CAMPUS PROFILE ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 3-1 A 3.1 Campus Overview ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................3-1 A 3.2 Campus Populations ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .............3-2 A 3.3 Campus Economy ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................3-3 A 3.4 Critical and Vu lnerable Resources and Values ................................ ................................ ................................ ..............................3-4 A 3.4.1 Campus Buildings ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...3-4 A 3.4.2 Critical Facilities and Services ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .............3-4 A 3.4.3 Critical Infrastructure ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................3-8 A 3.4.4 Soc ial and Academic Assets ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 3-9 A 4.0 RISK ASSESSMENT/HAZARD PROFILES ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 4-1 A 4.1 Active Killer (Shooter) ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............4-1 A 4.1.1 Description and History ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................4-1 A 4.1.2 Probability and Magnitude ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................4-3 A 4.1.3 Vulnerabilities ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........4-3 A MSU ANNEX TOC-2 -A 4.1.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-3 A 4.2 Communicable Disease .......................................................................................................................................................................4-3 A 4.2.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-3 A 4.2.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-4 A 4.2.3 Vulnerability .............................................................................................................................................................................4-4 A 4.2.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-4 A 4.3 Critical Infrastructure Disruption .......................................................................................................................................................4-5 A 4.3.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-5 A 4.3.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-5 A 4.3.3 Vulnerabilities ..........................................................................................................................................................................4-5 A 4.3.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-5 A 4.4 Cyber Threats ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4-6 A 4.4.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-6 A 4.4.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-7 A 4.4.3 Vulnerabilities ..........................................................................................................................................................................4-7 A 4.4.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-7 A 4.5 Earthquake ..............................................................................................................................................................................................4-7 A 4.5.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-7 A 4.5.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-8 A 4.5.3 Vulnerabilities ..........................................................................................................................................................................4-8 A 4.5.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-8 A 4.6 Environmental Hazards ........................................................................................................................................................................4-9 A 4.6.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-9 A 4.6.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-9 A 4.6.3 Vulnerability .............................................................................................................................................................................4-9 A 4.6.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-9 A 4.7 Hazardous Material Incidents .............................................................................................................................................................4-10 A 4.7.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-10 A 4.7.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-11 A 4.7.3 Vulnerabilities ..........................................................................................................................................................................4-11 A 4.7.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-12 A 4.8 Regulatory Compliance Risk ...............................................................................................................................................................4-12 A 4.8.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-12 A 4.8.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-12 A 4.8.3 Vulnerabilities ..........................................................................................................................................................................4-13 A 4.8.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-13 A 4.9 Severe Weather ......................................................................................................................................................................................4-13 A 4.9.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-13 A 4.9.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-15 A MSU ANNEX TOC-3 -A 4.9.3 Vulnerability .............................................................................................................................................................................4-15 A 4.9.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-16 A 4.10 Structure Fire ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4-16 A 4.10.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-16 A 4.10.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-19 A 4.10.3 Vulnerabilities ..........................................................................................................................................................................4-19 A 4.10.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-20 A 4.11 Terrorism, Civil Unrest and Violence .................................................................................................................................................4-21 A 4.11.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-21 A 4.11.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-21 A 4.11.3 Vulnerabilities ..........................................................................................................................................................................4-21 A 4.11.4 Overall Hazard Profiles ..........................................................................................................................................................4-22 A 4.12 Volcanic Eruption ..................................................................................................................................................................................4-22 A 4.12.1 Description and History ........................................................................................................................................................4-22 A 4.12.2 Probability and Magnitude ...................................................................................................................................................4-22 A 4.12.3 Vulnerability .............................................................................................................................................................................4-22 A 4.12.4 Overall Hazard Profile ............................................................................................................................................................4-23 A 4.13 Future Development .............................................................................................................................................................................4-23 A 5.0 MITIGATION STRATEGIES ............................................................................................................................................... 5-1 A 5.1 Goals, Objectives, and Proposed Actions ........................................................................................................................................5-1 A 5.1.1 Creative Arts Complex Seismic Retrofit ............................................................................................................................5-3 A 5.2 Project Ranking and Prioritization .....................................................................................................................................................5-5 A 5.3 Project Implementation........................................................................................................................................................................5-11 A 5.4 Potential Funding Sources ..................................................................................................................................................................5-18 A 5.5 Legal Framework ....................................................................................................................................................................................5-18 A 5.6 Capability Assessment .........................................................................................................................................................................5-19 A 5.6.1 MSU-Bozeman .........................................................................................................................................................................5-19 A 5.6.2 University Services .................................................................................................................................................................5-20 A 5.6.3 Campus Planning, Design and Construction ..................................................................................................................5-20 A 5.6.4 Emergency Management .....................................................................................................................................................5-20 A 5.6.5 Montana Department of Administration, Architecture and Engineering Division .................................................5-21 A 5.6.6 Gallatin County Emergency Management, All Hazards All Discipline (AHAD) Group ...........................................5-21 A 5.6.7 Gallatin County Public Health..............................................................................................................................................5-21 A 6.0 PLAN MAINTENANCE PROCEDURES .............................................................................................................................. 6-1 A 6.1 Monitoring, Evaluating, and Updating The Plan ............................................................................................................................6-1 A 6.1.1 Process Used Previously .......................................................................................................................................................6-1 A 6.1.2 Future Planning Process .......................................................................................................................................................6-1 A 6.2 Implementation through Existing Programs ..................................................................................................................................6-2 A 6.3 Continued Public Involvement ...........................................................................................................................................................6-2 A MSU ANNEX TOC-4 -A LIST OF TABLES – ANNEX A Table 4 -1. Hazardous Material Incidents at MSU -Bozeman ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................. 4-10 A Table 4 -2. Severe Summer Weather at MSU-Bozeman ..................................................................................................................................... 4-14 A Table 4 -3. MSU-Bozeman Fire Log (Montana State University, 2018) .......................................................................................................... 4-17 A Table 5 -1. Mitigation Project Cost-Benefit Matrix ............................................................................................................................................... 5-5 A Table 5 -2. MSU-Bozeman Mitigation Strategy: Project Ranking and Responsible Departments .......................................................... 5-6 A Table 5 -3. MSU-Bozeman Mitigation Strategy: Progress Made, Planned Activities, Status and Funding Sources ........................... 5-12 A LIST OF ACRONYMS – ANNEX A A&E Architecture and Engineering (Division) AHAD All Hazards All Discipline ASMSU Associated Students of Montana State University BAT Behavioral Assessment Team BIT Behavioral Intervention Team CDCP Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CPDC Campus Planning, Design and Construction CPS Counseling and Psychological Services DDOS Distributed Denial of Service DHS Department of Homeland Security DMA Disaster Mitigation Act DPHHS Department of Public Health and Human Services EM Emergency Management EOP Emergency Operations Plan EPCRA Emergency Planning and Community Right-to -Know Act ERP Emergency Response Plan FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency GIS Geographic Information System HCP Hazard Communication Plan HMGP Hazard Mitigation Grants Program HMP Hazard Mitigation Plan HVAC Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning IT Information Te chnology LEPC Local Emergency Planning Committee MDEQ Montana Department of Environmental Quality MDES Montana Disaster and Emergency Services MDOA Montana Department of Administration MOR Museum of the Rockies MSU Montana State University MUS Monta na University System MSU ANNEX TOC-5 -A LIST OF ACRONYMS – ANNEX A (continued) NAMI National Alliance on Mental Illness NCDC National Climatic Data Center NCES National Center for Education Statistics NACUBO National Association of College and University Business NFPA National Fire Protection Association NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration OEM Office of Emergency Management OSHA Occupational Safety and Health Administration PBX Private Branch Exchange PCIIS Property Casualty Insurance Information S ystem PDM Pre-Disaster Mitigation PDMC Pre-Disaster Mitigation Competitive RMF Records Management Facility SRM Safety and Risk Management SUB Strand (Student) Union Building TAT Threat Assessment Team UHC Unified Health Committee UPD University Po lice Department UIT University Information Technology USGS United States Geological Survey MSU ANNEX 1-1 A 1.0 INTRODUCTION In the last decade, disasters have affected university and college campuses in the United States with high frequency, sometimes causing death and injury, but always imposing monetary losses and disruption of the institution’s teaching, research, and public service. Depending on the degree of severity, natural, human-cause d or technological disasters can result in loss of educational time for students and economic hardship for the university and community. Damage to campus buildings and infrastructure and interruption to the institutional mission lead to significant losses that can be measured by faculty and student departures, decreases in research funding, and increases in insurance premiums. The effects from natural, human-caused and technological hazards directly impact the safety and well-being of university faculty, staff and students. While most hazards cannot be eliminated, the effects and losses can be substantially reduced through comprehensive pre-disaster planning and mitigation actions. Montana State University (MSU), working in conjunction with Montana Disaster and Emergency Services (MDES) and RESPEC prepared this 2018 update to their Pre -Disaster Mitigation (PDM) Plan, which is presented as an Annex to the 2018 Gallatin County Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) update. This Annex details the hazards, vulnerabilities, and mitigation opportunities specific to MSU. This Annex is intended to append and supplement the Gallatin County HMP and is not designed to be a standalone document. MSU ANNEX 2-1 A 2.0 PLANNING PROCESS The MSU Annex generally followed the planning process outlined in Section 2.0 of the Gallatin County HMP. Any instances in which the Annex deviated from the Gallatin County HMP planning process are noted in the sections below. 2.1 PROJECT STAKEHOLDERS The MSU Annex planning process was initiated by preparing a list of individual stakeholders whose input was needed to help develop the Annex. Participants included various university employees, as well as members of City and County organizations. Stakeholders participated in the planning process by attending public meetings, reviewing the draft Annex, and/or reading correspondence sent to be aware of progress on the project. Persons and entities on the stakeholders list received a variety of information during the planning process, inc luding documents for review, meeting notifications, and mitigation strategy documents. A meeting to conduct hazard identification, analysis, and overall r isk a ssessment for the MSU Annex was conducted on April 25, 2018; a list of stakeholder attendees at this meeting can be found in Appendix C. Many of these stakeholders also participated in the countywide HMP update process. 2.2 EXISTING PLANS, STUDIES, AND POLICIES At the initiation of the 2018 Annex process, all new planning documents, studies, reports, and MSU policies relevant to hazard mitigation were reviewed and incorporated into this Annex, where possible. These documents included: / Pre-Disaster Mitigation Plan (2013 Update), Montana State University - Bozeman / MSU-Bozeman Emergency Operations Plan (EOP) (2014) / MSU-Bozeman Emergency Management Policy (2016) / MSU-Bozeman Seismic Studies / Snow Removal Policy / Cold Weather Precautions Policy / Occupancy/Vacancy of Laboratories Policy / Chemical Safety Program / Waste Disposal Guidelines / Hazardous Material Policy / Hazard Communication Plan (HCP) / Residence Hall Security Policy / Pre-Fire Planning Policy / Fire Protection Equipment Impairment Testing Policy MSU ANNEX 3-1 A 3.0 CAMPUS PROFILE Universities are small communities within a community. Effective hazard mitigation must consider the programs offered, research activities, size, location, the distribution of the campus community and its dynamic population composed of students, faculty, staff and a variety of visitors. Visitors and students, especially freshman, are often unfamiliar with the community and the potential hazards that can occur. The dynamic and diverse population on campus and the functions of the campus present a unique challenge in hazard mitigation and awareness. 3.1 CAMPUS OVERVIEW MSU-Bozeman, the state’s largest university, is located within Gallatin County and partially within the city limits of Bozeman. Founded in 1893, MSU-Bozeman is a doctorial and research institution as well as a four- year public institution offering more than 225 academic programs at the certificate, baccalaureate, master’s, and doctoral levels (MSU, 2018a). Organizationally, MSU-Bozeman consists of over 100 individual departments and business entities, each having specific roles vital to the instructional, research and residence functions of the university. MSU-Bozeman’s students, faculty, staff and visitors comprise a daily population of 14,000 to 18,000 throughout the academic year. Special events can attract from 6,000 to 23 ,000 attendees on a regular basis. MSU-Bozeman is situated on 969 acres of land at 4,900 feet elevation. The campus consists of approximately 120 major buildings which comprise over 5 million square feet with a total replacement value of over $1.5 billion, including more than 40 classroom, research and administrative buildings, 11 residence halls (a 12th residence hall will open in Fall 2020), two residence dining halls, approximately 675 family dwelling units, a student fitness center, The Museum of the Rockies (MOR), the Strand Union Building (SUB) which serves as the center of campus activities, and public events venues such as the Brick Breeden Fieldhouse, Bobcat Stadium and Reynolds Recital Hall (MSU, 2018b). MSU-Bozeman is headed by a President, Provost and four Vice Presidents (Academic Affairs; Research, Creativity and Technology Transfer; Administration and Finance; and Student Success). Each academic college is headed by a dean. Administrative officers head up non-academic departments on campus. F aculty consists of academic instructors and professors. Non-academic positions consist of staff. The Associated Students of MSU-Bozeman (ASMSU) provide the student government. MSU-Bozeman is located in a seismically active area of the northern Rocky Mountains approximately 60 miles north of Yellowstone National Park. Weather exposures range from potentially severe cold and heavy snowfalls in winter to summer highs in the low 100°s with potentially severe thunderstorms including high winds and hail. Mo st of the occupied areas of campus are outside the 100-year flood zone and not susceptible to flooding (FEMA, 2011). MSU ANNEX 3-2 A MSU-Bozeman Campus, May 2019. Photo courtesy M. Rotar. 3.2 CAMPUS POPULATIONS In the fall of 2018, 16,902 students were enrolled at MSU-Bozeman (MSU, 2018c). Out-of-state and in- state students accounted for 35 and 60 percent, respectively. International students (5 percent) came from 76 countries. Fall semester generally begins the third week in August and ends the second week in December. Spring semester generally begins the second week in January and ends the first week in May. Summer session generally begins during the third week in May and ends during the first week in August. Summer session is divided into four, four-week sessions. Populations on campus are dynamic. Occupancy in buildings and residence halls varies based on the time of day and day of the week, and from semester to semester. Most students are on the campus between the hours of 8:00 am and 5:00 pm. Daytime populations are spread out among all buildings. Large lecture halls are located in Gaines Hall, Leon H. J ohnson Hall and Norm Asbjornson Hall. Night classes occur between 5:00 pm and 10:00 pm and have lower attendance than day classes. Faculty and staff are dispersed in various buildings around campus and generally have offices within their own departments. Administration is generally located in Montana Hall. MSU ANNEX 3-3 A MSU-Bozeman employs 3,214 permanent faculty and sta ff, and 620 graduate teaching and research assistants. Of the 3,214 permanent employees, 2,429 are full -time and 785 are part-time. There are 1,300 total faculty of which 829 are full -time and 471 are part -time and department heads. Classified, professiona l, and service staff number 1,914 (MSU, 2018c). Visitors come to tour the campus, visit students, visit the MOR, and attend various cultural and athletic activities on campus. Athletic events such as football and basketball games often have a high attenda nce of students and visitors. The majority (about 60 percent) of MSU -Bozeman’s population resides off -campus in non -university housing. Students of all ages reside in the residence halls, however, most students living on campus are freshman. All students taking six or more credit hours, with less than 30 credit hours accomplished in a residence hall setting, are required to live in university -owned residence halls. Exemptions from this policy include marriage, physical custody of a dependent child, living with a family member, and other circumstances. Family housing consists of apartments and houses. Family housing is leased with priority given to students with dependents (MSU, 2018d). 3.3 CAMPUS ECONOMY The Montana University System (MUS) plays a vital role for Montana’s economy due to direct spending by the institution’s faculty, staff and students and the attraction of dollars to the state. The MUS directly and indirectly generates more than $1 billion in personal income, and is responsible for over 13,000 jobs, both within the MUS and due to the system’s wider impact (MUS, 2018). As the state’s land grant institution, MSU-Bozeman’s agricultural and outreach missions impact the entire state both economically and culturally. MSU-Bozeman is one of the top 100 research institutions in the country with annual research spending of $126 million in the 2018 fiscal year (MSU, 2018e). MSU-Bozeman is an important contributor to the economy of Gallatin County. The community and the university are mutually dependent on each other economically. Numerous local businesses serve the university and local merchants depend upon business from staff and students. The loss of MSU- Bozeman’s ability to function or provide services would have a significant impact on Bozeman and the surrounding region. Immediate impacts from university closure would be the loss of jobs and local sales. Long-term losses would include loss of tuition and research dollars and loss of the university’s contribution of professional workers to the regional economy. As a vital component of the economy of Bozeman, Gallatin County and the State of Montana, the loss of MSU-Bozeman’s ability to function or provide services would have a devastating impact on the region. Furthermore, loss of research activities and services provided by MSU -Bozeman would have significant negative impacts for the state and nation for many years. MSU-Bozeman is the largest employer in Gallatin County and is the dominant economic component of the region’s economy. MSU-Bozeman’s total economic contribution to the state economy in 2010 was estimated at approximately $750 million (MSU, 2010). MSU ANNEX 3-4 A 3.4 CRITICAL AND VULNERABLE RESOURCES AND VALUES Resources for the campus include assets such as facilities and infrastructure necessary for the university to conduct operations and provide services. Resources can be housed on campus or in the community. Values include academic, historical and cultural assets. 3.4.1 CAMPUS BUILDINGS Buildings are an important asset to the campus. Their vulnerability depends upon characteristics such as size, age, building materials and construction quality. Other vulnerability factors include building value, historic value, building contents, occupancy, and whether hazardous materials are stored in them. 3.4.2 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND SERVICES Critical facilities and services are defined as facilities and services that are essential or critical to campus operations on a daily basis and after an emergency. Examples include shelters, medical care facilities, emergency services (police, fire ambulance), information storage, communications, and utilities. ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES AND CAMPUS RECORDS Administrative offices are primarily located in Montana Hall. Offices for the MSU President and three Vice Presidents are located in Montana Hall, as are the Admissions Office, Business Office, Registrar’s Office, and Financial Aid Office. Administrative and academic records are stored in Montana Hall. Student health records are stored electronically in servers maintained by UIT in MSU’s data center. Archived administrative, academic and employment records are stored in the Facilities Services’ Records Management Facility (RMF) (a metal building approximately 6,000 gross square feet complete with a fire suppression system), located of S. Fifth Avenue within the Facilities Services compound. Building records, including original construction drawings, as -builts and contract documents, in paper and digital form, are stored in the RMF. Records stored in Montana Hall and the RMF are vulnerable to destruction in the event of a fire or disaster. Montana Hall is equipped with a fire alarm but does not have a fire suppression system. Facilities Services provides storage units for rent by MSU departments. Currently there are 148 rental storage units in the Facilities Services compound. These units may contain records and material vulnerable to destruction from a disaster event. OFFICE OF RESEARCH COMPLIANCE The Office of Research Compliance (ORC) oversees University programs designed to ensure compliance with federal, state, and local regulations for research, creates and supports an environment that furthers the ethical and responsible conduct of research, including the Conflict of Interest Management Program and the Research Integrity Verification Program. The office is also responsible for outreach within laboratories and various campus entities to ensure compliance and safety standard are maintained. ORC is located in Montana Hall within the center of campus. ORC provides oversight of the Univers ity Radiation program, Biosafety program, radiation waste, bio- waste, laser safety, x-ray safety, and biohazardous waste. The University has autoclaves in 10 different buildings and access to one incinerator, which are all used for biohazardous waste disposal. In addition, biohazardous and radiological waste can be stored within the Safety and Risk Management Building at the corner of Garfield and Research Drive. MSU ANNEX 3-5 A SAFETY AND RISK MANAGEMENT The Safety and Risk Management (SRM) Office helps protect MSU's people, property and assets by providing support and expertise in the areas of risk a ssessment and mitigation strategies; MSU W orkers' C ompensation and Stay -at-Work/Return-to-W ork (SAW/RTW) programs and policy; Property/Casualty Insurance programs and loss control; Occupational Health & Safety programs; Industrial Hygiene programs; C hemical and H azardous W aste programs; Electronic Waste and universal waste programs ; Biowaste program; Fire & Life Safety; EHS policy and training. The SRM office is located adjacent to campus in the Advanced Technology Park at the corner of Garfield and Research Drive. SRM provides hazardous waste disposal services for the university. It provides information/assistance for compliance with other state and federal environmental regulations, as well as institutional policy, laboratory inspections, chemical hygiene plan templates and reviews, and laboratory safety training. UNIVERSITY HEALTH PARTNERS University Health Partners is located in the Swingle Health Center, adjacent to the SUB. Programs include basic medical services, including lab, pharmacy, x -ray, nutrition, allergy shots and a travel clinic; dental services including regular cleanings and hygiene, restorative care (fillings, crowns, etc.) and urgent care; an Office of Health Advancement offering an environmental approach to a balanced lifestyle, health and well-being; and Counseling & Psychological Services (CPS). All health care matters beyond what University Health Partners can provide are handled by Bozeman Health Deaconess Hospital. CPS is the university's resource for mental health issues. They provide counseling to MSU students and educational and preventive outreach, consultation, and crisis management to students, faculty and staff. The CPS staff is comprised of licensed psychologists and counselors who are available to students in crisis and for staff to consult with about at-ris k students. Students who are in crisis are seen on a walk-in basis, and CPS staff is available for after-hours crisis management or consultation as part of their 24 -hour on-call service during the academic year. UNIVERSITY POLICE DEPARTMENT MSU-Bozeman operates its own statutorily authorized police department comprised of state -certified, sworn personnel, and is staffed on a 24/7/365 basis. The University Police Department operates the campus 911 center and maintains a Mutual Aid/Memorandum of Understanding with the City of Bozeman which authorizes the University Police Department to operate within the city’s jurisdiction. The University Police Department is located in the Huffman Building on the corner of South 7 th Ave. and Kagy Bouleva rd. To enhance the safety and security of the campus community, 10 blue light emergency phones were installed on the MSU campus in J anuary of 2009. Each phone has an emergency button and an information button. When the emergency button is depressed, the blue strobe light is activated and the phone connects with the 911 emergency line at the Gallatin County 911 center, putting the caller in contact with a 911 dispatcher. Any time the emergency button is depressed, officers are dispatched to the activated blue light phone location. When the information button is depressed, the phone connects to a non- emergency phone line at the university police department for general information. MSU ANNEX 3-6 A A new, similarly named smartphone app calle d AppArmor brings the functionality of the blue light phones to cell phones as an added level of security both on and off campus ( AppArmor , 2019). AppArmor works by bridging two common issues when making emergency calls on a college campus. The first is that, when calling emergency services, cell phones aren’t always that accurate. Unlike a landline, which is associated with the address of the account holder, a cellphone’s location depends on the nearest cell tower of a caller, often giving just a general location. AppArmor uses Wi-Fi or cellular data to provi de your location data when you make an emergency call with the app. This gives far more accurate information about where you are, and therefore provides first responders with a better idea of where they need to go. Contracted security monitors building fi re alarms, laboratory equipment , environmental controls, and computer lab equipment intrusion detection . EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MSU-Bozeman is committed to protecting the lives, safety, and welfare of its campus and community members. The MSU Office of Emergency Management (OEM) is charged with improving the University’s readiness for potential emergencies; protecting and preserving its intellectual property, physical assets and facilities; establishing requirements for tasked organizations to develop plans a nd execute annual training exercises; and ensuring the continuity of operations of essential services. The OEM maintains MSU-Bozeman’s Emergency Operations Plan (EOP) and the MSU Alert system, both of which are described below. The EOP provides a framework in which MSU-Bozeman, along with its officials, units, departments, offices, and campus community, can work to prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from the effects of emergencies and disasters. Recognizing the impracticality of developing and maintaining individual plans for every possible emergency, the EOP provides general guidelines for responding to emergency events by activating decision processes, gathering decision-makers, and marshaling resources to address University emergencies. The EOP is intended to be a dynamic document that establishes a framework to guide effective response to emergencies, minimizes the impacts of emergencies, maximizes the effectiveness of university resources and that is scalable, flexible, and adaptable enough to apply to a broad range of emergencies. MSU Alert is a notification system to deliver critical information to MSU students, faculty and staff in the event of an emergency. The system delivers emergency messages through text messaging to mobile phones and e-mails, as well as voice messages to personal phones. In 2018, MSU entered into a partnership with Gallatin County to produce a fortified and integrated emergency notification system powered by Everbridge. This partnership allows enhanced communications between MSU and Gallatin County during the time of a life -threatening emergency. Previously, MSU Alerts were only sent regarding issues within the immediate university property lines. The upgraded system now allows users to receive emergency notifications of events occurring within Gallatin County that could affect the MSU community. Two types of notifications, emergency notifications and timely warnings, are provided to students, faculty, and staff at MSU. The MSU Alert system only provides emergency notifications. Members of the MSU community currently receive timely warnings to their employee or student email and will continue to do so. Please see below for additional details about the types of notifications. MSU ANNEX 3-7 A • Emergency Notifications: issued when a potential on-going threat which could cause immediate harm to the health and safety of students, faculty, and staff exists. Being that these notifications are time sensitive and crucial they are distributed via a text message alert, voice calls, and emails. • Timely Warnings: issued to notify students, faculty, and staff when a serious crime has occurred with the potential to be repeated or on -going, in accordance with the Clery Act . These notifications are sent via email. Contact information that is in the MSU Alert system is only to be used for emergency alerting purposes. User’s information will never be sold for commercial use. Only emergency notifications will be sent through the MSU Alert system. The system will never send spam. A test of the system will be conducted once each semester. SHELTERS AND RESIDENCE HALLS The SUB is identified as the main shelter for the campus community. If sheltering needs arose, MSU- Bozeman students would have priority to use the on-campus facilities before the general public. Grace Bible Church on S. 19 th Ave. is the nearest off-campus emergency shelter to the MSU-Bozeman campus. MSU-Bozeman’s residence hall facilities and other campus housing serve approximately 4,200 on- campus residents. All residence halls are non-smoking and have sprinklers for fire suppression. There are several housing facilities on campus for graduate students, family housing and guests of the MSU- Bozeman campus. UNIVERSITY SERVICES MSU-Bozeman includes approximately 5 million square feet of academic, research and residential building space in 120 buildings with a replacement value of over $1.5 billion (MSU, 2018f). University Services provides maintenance for approximately 2.5 million square feet of academic space, 2 million square feet of housing, 200 acres of landscaped grounds, and roughly 25 miles of sidewalk. University Services employs approximately 200 full-time employees and 60 temporary/student employees. University Services consists of seven service management areas including: Campus Planning; Design & Construction; Engineering & Utilities ; Facilities Service ; Mail Services and Passports; Safety & Risk Management; and Space Planning & Management. Functions that oc cur within these work management areas include custodial services; landscape and grounds maintenance; waste management and recycling; snow removal; horticulture management and inventory; vehicle and equipment machine repair shop; accounting; budgeting; computer system operation; campus motor pool; central campus stores; long-term campus storage management; campus maintenance, repairs, maintenance and renovation in building trades including electrical, plumbing, carpentry, locksmith, painting, sheet metal and general contractor services; engineering services; utilities management; central heating plant operation; preventive maintenance; refrigeration and air conditioning repairs, maintenance, and renovation; heating and ventilation repair, maintenance, and renovation; energy grant program management; campus master planning; capital construction project management; long range building program management; maintenance, repair, and renovation planning and design services; contract administration; architectural ser vices; work control management; project scheduling; estimating services; work order management; manpower planning; elevator repair maintenance and renovation; asbestos removal; radio communications; archives, building records, and personnel records management; and contract documentation. MSU ANNEX 3-8 A In the event of a disaster, University Services would ensure that the infrastructure of the campus was maintained. In the event of a severe storm or earthquake that left debris behind, University Services would be responsib le for clean-up using both in-house and contracted resources. During severe winter events, Facilities Services and Parking Services are responsible for snow removal on campus. University Services would be responsible for shutting down a building’s heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system in the event of a chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons attack or accidental toxic release. University Services is responsible for helping departments secure shelving and other non -structural hazard mitigation activities. 3.4.3 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Campus infrastructure includes systems that are essential for campus activities, administrative operations, maintaining many types of campus experiments, and the ability of the campus to communicate. MSU-Bozeman owns, operates, maintains and distributes its own utility systems including primary electricity, natural gas, steam and condensate, water and sewer, and communications and data systems. Determining location, condition and vulnerability of utilities and communications systems needed for campus operations is important for mitigation of potential damages and overall hazard risk. UNDERGROUND TUNNELS Central campus utilities are served through an underground utility tunnel network comprised of approximately 8,000 linear feet of main and lateral tunnels. Underground tunnels on the MSU-Bozeman campus were completed in the summer of 2001 and have a modern seismic design. The tunnels service the central campus core buildings. Five percent of the total electrical and 50 percent of data and communications are run through the tunnel system. Steam and condensate, compressed air, domestic water and irrigation water are also run through the tunnels. Select authorized employees have access to the tunnel systems. The tunnels are secured and alarmed to prevent unauthorized access. Fire alarms and emergency sirens cannot be heard in the tunnels making them a vulnerable location in the event of a disaster. A linear antenna inside the tunnel provides direct communications to workmen’s two -way radios. CENTRAL HEATING PLANT The central heating plant on campus provides steam heat to the entire campus except for family housing. Steam from the plant either goes through pipes in the underground tunnels or is dispersed through buried piping. There is an emergency electrical generator for the heating plant which allows heat to be provided to buildings during power outages; however, heat distribution equipment in individual buildings may be affected by a power interruption to that building. The plant has been seismically retrofitted to protect against earthquake damage. ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS Electricity and natural gas are provided to the campus by NorthWestern Energy. Electrical service enters the campus at one central point and is fed from the Bozeman Southside Substation at the northwest corner of College and South 11th Avenue. A small portion of the south part of campus is fed from the Sourdough Substation. Electrical lines are all underground on campus. Power outages can occur on campus if damage occurs to above-ground power lines or poles in Bozeman. Power outages have been caused by heavy snow, ice storms, car accidents, broken tree limbs and high winds. Earthquakes also have the potential to down power lines. Generators on campus power emergency lighting in some buildings. Natural gas lines are laid out in zones, each having an emergency shut off valve. MSU ANNEX 3-9 A INFORMATION SYSTEMS, TELEPHONE, COMMUNICATIONS AND INTERNET MSU-Bozeman’s University Information Technology (UIT) provides information technology services to MSU-Bozeman, MSU-Billings, MSU -Northern and the College of Technology at Great Falls. Specific to MSU-Bozeman, UIT supports the following critical operations relative to hazard mitigation and response: / Data Network / Campus Communications & Wiring / Campus Telephone Communications / Enterprise Administrative Applications / Desktop Support and maintenance / Classroom Technology / Service Desk / Security / IT Governance Services supporting these critical areas are managed and coordinated ac ross personnel assets that are both centralized (UIT) and embedded (multiple departments). Many of the mission critical applications and technology services exist in the cloud – either hosted or dependent upon cloud-based vendors and third parties. Other s ervices are maintained, managed and coordinated across two data centers that exist on the MSU-Bozeman campus. Data centers presently exist in the AJ M J ohnson Hall building, and the Renne Library building on campus, and are managed, monitored and sustained by UIT. IT Community personnel are located across multiple departments and buildings across the MSU- Bozeman Campus. UIT, the central unit for information technology services, resides at two locations – CFT5, located to the s outh of the MSU-Bozeman campus ; Nopper 910, located to the west of the MSU- Bozeman Academic campus in the MSU Innovation Campus, and Renne Library, located on campus. Telecommunications infrastructure is managed by UIT Telephone Services. Data Network infrastructure is managed by UIT Infrastructure Services. Both IT services facilitate communications and response for applications and personnel. Electronic mail is a cloud -based service, managed and by UIT personnel, yet hosted in the Microsoft Azure cloud environment. WATER AND SEWER W ater and sewer services are provided to MSU-Bozeman by the City of Bozeman. Primary sources of water are Lyman Creek in the Bridger Mountains, Sourdough Creek and the Hyalite Creek Reservoir in the Gallatin Mountains. Some water lines on campus are located in the tunnel systems. A disruption in water services to campus would cause loss of potable water, sanitary services and loss of steam production from the heating plant in turn causing loss of heat. Students residing on campus would be at the greatest ris k if the water system on campus was disrupted or compromised. 3.4.4 SOCIAL AND ACADEMIC ASSETS Academic, historic and cultural resources housed on campus are considered priority assets. The following section describes these campus resources. MSU ANNEX 3-10 A HISTORIC BUILDINGS Preserving and maintaining historic buildings on campus preserves a part of the University’s past and adds to the atmosphere of the campus environment by preserving architecture. Construction materials and techniques used during the late 19th and early 20th century cause historical buildings to be more at risk for earthquakes. Although many buildings on the MSU-Bozeman campus are eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places, as of 2018 none are so classified. The Montana Antiquities Act requires state agencies to report restoration and maintenance expenditures to preserve Heritage Properties, including buildings over 50 years of age, structures, landscapes, and prehistoric elements above and below the ground. The fir st Heritage Report was filed in February 2012. CAMPUS RESEARCH MSU-Bozeman is ranked as one of the top research universities in the U.S. with grant and contract- sponsored research that totaled $126 million in the 2018 fiscal year, 75.4 percent of which were federal funds competitively won by researchers (MSU, 2018e). The Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching recognizes MSU-Bozeman as one of 108 research universities with "very high research activity." As a land grant university, MSU-Bozeman has a long tradition of supporting basic and applied research and creative activity. MSU-Bozeman currently holds 75 patents for innovations and processes developed through faculty research, with many additional patents pending, and has over 250 license and option agreements with private firms, many of which are with Montana companies. Although research equipment can be fiscally recovered, intellectual research and time accumulated on research projects cannot be fiscally recovered in the event of a disaster. Research that involves refrigeration or heat (such as vegetation in the plant growth center) is vulnerable to power outages. Research projects are also vulnerable to earthquakes and structure fire. Buildings where research takes place on the MSU-Bozeman campus include: Barnard Hall, Norm Asbjornson Hall, Cobleigh Hall, Roberts Hall, Chemistry/Biochemistry Research Building, Traphagen Hall, Gaines Hall, Lewis Hall, Animal Resources Building, Leon H. Johnson Hall, Faculty Court, and leased space in the Advanced Technology Park. MUSEUM OF THE ROCKIES The Museum of the Rockies is a division of MSU -Bozeman and reports to the Provost. Students, faculty, and visiting scholars use its collections and exhibits for classes, research, and programs. Some museum curators teach on campus and some MSU-Bozeman professors hold adjunct appointments at the museum. Operating revenues are earned from admissions, programs, memberships, and the museum store. Additional support is provided by The Museum of the Rockies, Inc., a private non-profit corporation. Funds for the origina l buildings and the 1989 expansion were provided by private sources. The museum offers a variety of educational programs for people of all ages including tours, classes, lectures, field trips, field schools, and special events. MSU ANNEX 3-11 A The museum is accredited by the American Association of Museums. It attracted 196,201 visitors in 2017 from across the U.S. (MOR, 2018). The prehistory and history of the northern Rocky Mountain region are told through a series of permanent exhibits. Three galleries feature tempor ary and traveling exhibitions related to the region. The museum also houses the world -class Taylor Planetarium which hosts a variety of presentations including feature shows for children and adults, the majority of which are original productions, as well a s school programs, live narrated night sky programs, and laser shows. SPECIAL COLLECTIONS The Renne Library, constructed in 1949 and expanded in 1996, accommodates more than 880,000 volumes and houses special collections, manuscripts and archives (MSU, 2018g). Special Collections and manuscripts are located on the second floor and Archives are housed on the fourth floor. Special Collections include documents and memorabilia from the career of Montana’s U.S. Senator Burton K. Wheeler, the Merrill G. Burlingame Special Collection, the Yellowstone National Park Collection and the Trout and Salmonid Collection. The Renne Library is designated as an institutional digital repository including scholar works and special collections. The Merrill G. Burlingame Special Collections serve Montana State University libraries as the preferred repository for primary and secondary source material on specific topics related to Montana, the geographic and economic region, as well as the history and published records of the Unive rsity. Special collections are constantly observed by staff and are kept locked. The library’s general collections are valued at $17 million and the Special Collections (books and manuscripts) valued at $117.9 million. G eneral building contents of the library are valued at $34.2 million. The library was renovated in 2001 which included seismic enhancements and installation of modern fire suppression equipment including both wet and dry systems. The library staff keeps rolls of plastic sheeting on hand thro ughout the stacks to minimize damage to the books from the sprinklers. ATHLETICS AND CAMPUS EVENTS Athletic and cultural events on campus draw attendance from the student population and the community. High attendance at athletic events presents an increased risk of human loss should a catastrophic incident occur. Major athletic facilities on campus include the Brick Breeden Fieldhouse/Max Worthington Arena, Shroyer Gym, and Bobcat Stadium. Should an emergency or disaster occur during an athletic or cultural event, patrons would be directed by the intercom for instructions or actions to take. MSU- Bozeman campus guests are provided the opportunity to utilize the MSU Alert system to receive emergency notifications. The Brick Breeden Fieldhouse/Max Worthington Arena opened in 1958 as the premiere college basketball and all-purpose facility in the Northwest. When it opened, the facility was the largest clear span timber dome structure in existence, and the second -largest b uilding of its type in the U.S. The fieldhouse underwent a major renovation in 1998, at a cost of over $15 million, to replace seats, expand concession and ticket office facilities, and add a new entrance on the south side of the building. Today, the Brick Breeden Fieldhouse hosts several sports including basketball, track and field, and volleyball. Concerts, trade events, and rodeos are also hosted at the fieldhouse. The current maximum capacity of the facility is 8,000. MSU ANNEX 3-12 A Bobc at Stadium , constructed in 197 3, is a multi -purpose stadium that is home to the MSU Bobcats football team. The stadium underwent $9.2 million in renovations prior to the 1998 football season which included new concession stands and restrooms, a new north end -zone complex, dressing faci lities for teams and officials, a new grandstand with 38 sky suites, an indoor stadium club, a corporate entertaining area, and press facilities. A new south end zone added in 2011 increased stadium seating to its current 17,777 capacity. The stadium is a multi-functional facility and hosts concerts and other events in addition to football games. When the facility is used for concerts, capacity increases to about 22,000. Bobcat Stadium is on the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s national list of critic al infrastructure. The list is used to determine what sites need protection from terrorist attacks. Shroyer Gymnasium , built in 1973, is the primary women’s volleyball facility at MSU -Bozeman and is also regularly used as a concert venue. The capacity of the gymnasium varies from 1,400 to 1,600 depending on the configuration. Shroyer Gym connects the Brick Breeden Fieldhouse to the Marga Hosaeus Health and Physical Education Center, which houses a swimming pool, two gymnasiums, a state -of-the -art student wellness center, along with handball and racquetball courts. The hub of student activities is the Student Union at the SUB with services including the MSU -Bozeman Bookstore, Exit Gallery, KGLT radio station, Procrastinator Theater, numerous eateries, meeting rooms, conference services, offices for student government, student activities and special support programs. Cultural events for the general public occur throughout the year at the MSU-Bozeman campus and are generally held in conference rooms in the SUB . LANDSCAPING Campus landscapes and exterior spaces are a fundamental piece of MSU’s social, aesthetic, cultural, and facilities infrastructure. They serve as spaces for gathering, outdoor classrooms and recreation. MSU has a Landscape Master Plan to provide a framework for planning, design, development, and maintenance of the exterior spaces of the MSU-Bozeman campus. In general, every tree on campus is assessed and maintained on a 7-year rotational schedule. Special considerations are given to younger trees (< 20 years), trees with high target risks, trees interacting with infrastructure including sight lines, lighting and signage, and documented hazard trees. Trees are maintained to maximize health and habit increasing their ability to withstand natural pressures and potentially increase tree longevity while increasing safety and reducing impacts on facilities operations and infrastructure. MSU-Bozeman has a Tree Care Plan that addresses emergencies with regard to pruning. Emergency response addresses safety first and accessibility second. Once these critical needs are met a systematic, emergency specific plan is developed and implemented. Safety would include people, equipment (generators, HVAC, etc), buildings, and pedestrian and vehicle circulation routes. Clean up and restoration begins after critical needs are met. MSU ANNEX 4-1 A 4.0 RISK ASSESSMENT/HAZARD PROFILES Hazards considered during the planning process included natural, biological, human-made, and technological. Hazards for the MSU Annex were reviewed by stakeholders and the consultant. Hazards identified at present include (in alphabetical order): / Active Killer / Communicable Disease / Critical Infrastructure Disruption / Cyber Threats / Earthquakes / Environmental Hazards / Hazardous Material Incidents / Regulatory Compliance Risk / Severe Weather / Structure Fire / Terrorism, Civil Unrest, and Violence / Volcanic Eruption Identified hazards were ranked for their probability of occurrence and the impacts that would result to the population, property, and economy should the hazard occur. The hazard occurrence probability and each of the potential impact categories were assigned numeric values of 1 (Low), 2 (Moderate), or 3 (High). A weighting method was then applied to the hazard impact values by multiplying the population impact value by 3, the property impact value by 2, and the economy impact value by 1. A final risk value is assigned to each hazard by taking the sum of weighted impact values and multiplying by the hazard probability value. Each of the identified hazards includes a risk assessment table at the end of the hazard profile which summarizes the relative overall risk value. The total numeric risk values are classified as High (value: 28 and higher), Moderate (value: 19 – 27), and Low (value: below 19). The calculated numeric risk value is provided in parentheses following the descriptive risk value (Low, Moderate, High). 4.1 ACTIVE KILLER (SHOOTER) 4.1.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY According to the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), an active shooter is “an individual engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area; in most cases, active shooters use firearm(s) and there is no pattern or method to their selection of victims.” (US DHS, 2008). Active killers —most often in the form of active shooters —have been an increasingly prevalent threat facing universities and schools across the county. According to the FBI, there were 250 active shooter incidents in the U.S. between 2000 and 2017, with over half (128) of the incidents occurring in the last six years of that time frame (2012 – 2017) (FBI, 2018). MSU ANNEX 4-2 A The Virginia Tech Massacre was a school shooting that took place on April 16, 2007, on the campus of Virginia Tech. Seung-Hui Cho, a senior at Virginia Tech, shot and killed 32 people and wounded 17 others in two separate attacks, approximately two hours apart, before committing suicide. Cho had previously been diagnosed with a severe anxiety disorder. The attacks received international media coverage and drew widespread criticism of U.S. gun culture. It sparked intense debate about gun violence, gun laws, gaps in the U.S. system for treating mental health issues, the perpetrator's state of mind, the responsibility of college administrations, privacy laws, and other issues. The Virginia Tech Review Panel, a state-appointed body assigned to review the incident, criticized Virginia Tech administrators for failing to take action that might have reduce d the number of casualties. The panel's report also reviewed gun laws and pointed out gaps in mental health care as well as privacy laws that left Cho's deteriorating condition in college untreated. The aftermath of the shootings at Virginia Tech focused renewed attention on how colleges and universities deal with campus safety and security issues. Beyond traditional measures to protect students, employees, and property, safety and security efforts undertaken by higher education institutions now must also address the possibility of terrorist actions, such as bomb threats and threats of physical violence against campus research facilities, individual faculty, and administrators. A survey conducted by the National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI) (2 012) found that among college students, 73% had experienced some type of mental health crisis while at college. The National Campus Safety and Security Project (National Association of College and University Business Officers – NACUBO, 2008) addressed the ability of colleges and universities to assess mental health issues and threats on campus. About 76 percent of public four-year college and university respondents said that a behavioral assessment team (BAT) exists on their campus. An additional 13 percent of respondents reported their campus was developing such a team. A BAT deals with matters of crisis, disturbing behavior, and medical and psychiatric situations of individual students, faculty, and/or staff in order to determine needs and appropriate responses. Fewer than half of the respondents reported that their campus had a threat assessment team (TAT). A TAT assists in assessing threatening situations and developing risk abatement plans that minimize the potential risk for violence. Mental health services are available at virtually all public four-year colleges and universities through the health center or a separate counseling center. More than 60 percent of public four-year institutions reported the availability of a campus hotline to assist staff, faculty, and students with behavioral and mental health issues. About two -thirds of respondents said a protocol exists to address the needs of troubled faculty and staff. MSU-Bozeman currently has a Behavioral Intervention Team (BIT) that consists of vario us professionals responsible for identifying, assessing, and responding to serious concerns and/or disruptive behavior by students who may threaten the health or safety of the campus community. The university’s Active Shooter Preparedness training does inc lude the Run, Hide, Fight response protocol. From MSU Office of Emergency management website – Active Shooter MSU ANNEX 4-3 A 4.1.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE School shootings comprise a majority of active killer events. In 2017, there were 64 incidents of gunfire on school grounds, none of which occurred in Montana or its neighboring states (Everytown, 2018). The most recent data available indicates there approximately 140,000 educational institutions in the United States, including public, private, and post-secondary schools (NCES, 2018). Using these statistics, the probability of any one school experiencing an active shooter in a given year is approximately 0.05%, if risk is assumed to be uniform across all schools. Given the increasing trend of active shooter incidents, it is likely the probability will increase with time. The magnitude of an event can vary significantly, depending on the type of attack and the ability of responders to control the situation. With an event of significant magnitude, local resources would rapidly be overwhelmed. Though resources from Bozeman, Gallatin County, and even surrounding counties can be called in, the time to mobilize resources is quite long compared to how quickly active killer incidents develop and escalate. 4.1.3 VULNERABILITIES The greatest risk in an active killer incident is to life. All students, faculty, staff, and visitors on-campus during the attack would be at risk. The effects would be particularly dramatic in a large-scale event, as local resources would quickly be overwhelmed. In the aftermath of such an event, economic losses could be seen should enrollment drop in response. This could result in economic hardships for students and staff, as an unexpected drop in revenue may require increased tuition and decreased payroll spending. 4.1.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Active Killer Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) 4.2 COMMUNICABLE DISEASE 4.2.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY Communicable diseases, sometimes called infectious diseases, are illnesses caused by organisms such as bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites. Sometimes the illness is not due to the organism itself, but rather a toxin that the organism produces after it has been intro duced into a human host. Communicable disease may be transmitted (spread) from one infected person to another, from an animal to a human, from an animal to an animal, or from some inanimate object (doorknobs, tabletops, etc.) to an individual. A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. Human diseases, particularly epidemics, are possible throughout the nation. The Montana Communicable Disease Annual Report summarizes and highlights the diseases and outbreaks investigated by the DPHHS Communicable Disease and Epidemiology Section and local health jurisdictions and partners (DPHHS, 2017). MSU ANNEX 4-4 A Communicable disease is a concern for campuses across the nation. With students coming from all over the country and internationally, the chances for disease spread increases. Communal living in residence halls also increases the risk of communicable disease. Residential and social circumstances in the college environment create a high -risk environment for transmission or exposure if an outbreak were to occur. The most seriou s communicable disease on U.S. campuses is meningococcal disease. Meningococcal disease is a potentially life -threatening bacterial infection. The disease is most commonly expressed as either meningococcal meningitis, an inflammation of the membranes surro unding the brain and spinal cord, or meningococcemia, a presence of bacteria in the blood. It is estimated that 100 to 125 cases of meningococcal disease occur annually on college campuses and 5 to 15 students die as a result. The disease can result in per manent brain damage, hearing loss, learning disability, limb amputation, kidney failure or death. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP) reports that freshman living in residence halls are the highest risk group and are six times more l ikely than any other risk group to contract meningococcal disease (CDCP, 2018). 4.2.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE The probability of an epidemic that could significantly affect the MSU -Bozeman campus is difficult to assess based on history, current data and the rapid advancement in medical science. However, based on the Gallatin County communicable disease statistics, this hazard a probability rating of “moderate”. The magnitude of a communicable disease outbreak varies from common viral outbreaks to widespread bacterial infection. Almost any communicable disease that enters the regional population could overwhelm local health resources as would any rapidly spreading bioterrorism event for which there is no available vaccine or containment capability. 4.2.3 VULNERABILITY A major communicable disease outbreak on campus would have direct impacts to the health of students, staff, and faculty. The percentage of the campus population affected by an outbreak and the number of fatalities would be highly dependent on the disease itself and amount of advanced warning of a possible outbreak. A major communicable disease outbreak could also disrupt the ability of MSU-Bozeman to conduct classes. In the case of a severe outbreak event, the campus could potentially reduce academic and/or business services. This could result in a significant economic impact to the students, faculty, and staff and the region. MSU-Bozeman is included within the Gallatin County Pandemic Plan and coordinates regularly with local health officials through the Unified Health Committee (UHC). An immunization policy is in effect and applicable for all new and returning students at MSU-Bozeman. For students born after December 31, 1956, proof of two separate doses of measles and rubella immunization is required before students can register for courses. This policy is in effect at all units of the MUS. 4.2.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Communicable Disease Moderate Low Moderate Low Low (18) MSU ANNEX 4-5 A 4.3 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DISRUPTION 4.3.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY Critical infrastructure disruption can be caused by almost any hazard, but they can also occur because of human error or equipment failures. Electric, gas, telephone, and water are all important services to the campus that could become problematic should a long -term outage occur. Daily operation of the campus is dependent on a variety of services, including human resources, student records, administration, information technology, among many others. Should the structures of systems these services rely on fail, disruption would be immediately felt across the campus. Critical infrastructure disruption can be caused by many hazard events. Anything from an earthquake to a terrorist event could cause infrastructure or services to be interrupted. Hazards that can rapidly compromise utility systems include earthquakes, severe summer weather, and severe winter weather. A wildfire in the region could disrupt the power supply if a major transmission line was burned and damaged. Vehicle accidents are possibly the most likely hazard to occur in the instance of electrical failure. 4.3.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE MSU has not experienced any critical infrastructure disruptions that can be considered disastrous. The probability of a major disruption to critical infrastructure in Ga llatin County, the City of Bozeman, and on the MSU-Bozeman campus is certainly possible and considered to be moderate. 4.3.3 VULNERABILITIES Potential utility interruption modes of failure caused by natural and man-made hazards include, but are not limited to: / Remote (off-campus) electrical grid failure / Campus primary electrical failure / Remote failure of natural gas distribution or transmission / Failure of backup heating fuel system / Loss of city water / Loss of sanitary sewer service Other modes of failure exist, but these are primary to the function of the entire campus. In the event of loss of electricity or heat source during the winter, campus could be rendered uninhabitable and the property damage and lost research could be very extensive. Critical campus facilities and services are vulnerable to utility outages. Some critical campus facilities do have back -up generators in case of an electricity outage. Others, however, may have limited functionality following an event due to a utility failure. Facilities and services are also vulnerable to structure failures. Any disruption of critical campus facilities and services is expected to have an adverse economic impact on the university. Without services such as heated shelters, food, and drinking water, the campus po pulation could suffer. Significant casualties would not be expected since these services could be available in a nearby community. N ecessary sheltering and feeding provisions would occur to protect population. Significant relocations of vulnerable populations and disruption of normal campus lifestyles would be expected. 4.3.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaste Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Critical Infrastructure Disrup Moderate Moderate High Moderate High (30) MSU ANNEX 4-6 A 4.4 CYBER THREATS 4.4.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY The broad reach of cyberspace is integral to educational institutions and is used daily to aid in communication and operations. This dependency leaves MSU vulnerable to interruption of service or functionality, which can be threatened during a cyber-attack. In many cases even a small, isolated attack can have widespread effects and cause major disruptions. A cyberattack is malicious and deliberate attempt by an individual or organization to breach the information system of another individual or organization. Usually, the attacker seeks some type of benefit from disrupting the victim’s network. Cyberattacks affect individuals, businesses, academic institutions and governmental agencies every day. The number of cyberattacks is escalating rapidly, having increased by nearly 400% between January 2016 and October 2017 (Cisco, 2018). The following are common types of cyberattacks: / Malware: A term used to describe malicious software, including spyware, ransomware, viruses, and worms. Malware breaches a network through a vulnerability, typically when a user clicks a dangerous link or email attachment that then installs risky software. Once inside the system, malware can do the following: / Blocks access to key components of the network (ransomware) / Installs malware or additional harmful software / Covertly obtains information by transmitting data from the hard drive (spyware) / Disrupts certain components and renders the system inoperable / Phishing: Phishing is the practice of sending fraudulent communications that appear to come from a reputable source. It is usually done through email. The goal is to steal sensitive data like credit card and login information, or to install malware on the victim’s machine. Phishing starts with a fraudulent email or other communication that is designed to lure a victim. The message is made to look as though it comes from a trusted sender. If it fools the victim, he or she is coaxed into providing confidential information, often on a scam website. Sometimes malware is also downloaded onto the target’s computer. / Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS): A distributed-denial-of-service, or DDoS, attack is the bombardment of simultaneous data requests to a central server. The attacker generates these requests from multiple compromised systems. In doing so, the attacker hopes to exhaust the target’s Internet bandwidth and RAM. The ultimate goal is to crash the target’s system and disrupt its business. / Man-in-the -middle: Man-in-the -middle (MitM) attacks, also known as eavesdropping attacks, occur when attackers insert themselves into a two -party transaction. Once the attackers interrupt the traffic, they can filter and steal data. MSU ANNEX 4-7 A Two common points of entry for MitM attacks: 1. On unsecure public Wi-Fi, attackers can insert themselves between a visitor’s device and the network. Without knowing, the visitor passes all information through the attacker. 2. Once malware has breached a device an attacker can install software to process all the victim’s information. / SQL Injection: A Structured Query Language (SQL) injection occurs when an attacker inserts malicious code into a server that uses SQL and forces the server to reveal information it normally would not. An attacker could carry out a SQL injection simply by submitting malicious code into a vulnerable website search box. / Zero -day exploit: A zero-day exploit hits after a network vulnerability is announced but before a patch or solution is implemented. Attackers target the disclosed vulnerability during this window of time. Zero-day vulnerability threat detection requires constant awareness. MSU and its students are regularly targeted in small-scale cyberattacks, including malware, ransomware, and phishing scams. No major attacks have occurred, though recent history indicates that universities are particularly vulnerable to attacks. In the past few years, institutions such as Harvard University, Penn State University, and the University of Maryland, among many others, have been targets of cyberattacks which resulted in significant data breaches. 4.4.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE As noted previously, small-scale cyberattacks occur every day, while significant attacks that result in extensive damage are rare. Universities are attractive targets for cyber-criminals, due to the large amount of personal data in their possession. Thus, the probability of a major incident is considered high. 4.4.3 VULNERABILITIES The students, faculty, alumni, and any individuals associated with Montana State University are most vulnerable during a cyberattack. Most university attacks attempt to access databases containing personal information, such as names, birthdates, and Social Security numbers. This stolen information can be used to commit identity theft, which financially damages the victim. Infrastructure, critical facilities, and critical services such as human resources and payroll can also be affected, if attacks target their systems. 4.4.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Cyber Threats Moderate Moderate High Moderate High (30) 4.5 EARTHQUAKE 4.5.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY An earthquake is ground shaking and radiated seismic energy caused most commonly by a sudden slip on a fault, volcanic or magmatic activity, or other sudden stress changes in the earth. An earthquake of magnitude 8 or larger on the Richter Scale is termed a great earthquake. Fortunately, Montana has not experienced a great earthquake in recorded history. MSU ANNEX 4-8 A 4.5.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE A significant seismic event would directly affect campus buildings and utilities and those in the surrounding community. The amount of damage would be related to the location and intensity of the earthquake and each building’s ability to withstand the impacts. The population would have little and mostly likely no warning prior to an earthquake, so the impact to that population could be great depending on the magnitude of the event. 4.5.3 VULNERABILITIES In the worst-case scenario, an earthquake could cause serious structural damage or cause a building to collapse. Architectural damage may occur to nonbearing walls/partitions, exterior wall panels, veneer and finishes, mechanical penthouses, access floors, appendages and ornaments. Non-secured objects and building contents such as file cabinets, art and other valuable objects, laboratory equipment, bookcases, and computer and communication equipment can fall during an earthquake causing property damage or injury/fatality. Most earthquake -related injuries result from collapsing walls, flying glass, and falling objects, or people trying to move more than a few feet during the shaking. Severe earthquakes can also damage non-flexible utilities such as natural gas, sewer, and water mains. Fire is the most common hazard to follow an earthquake due to broken gas lines. Earthquakes may disrupt emergency systems and falsely set off fire alarms and fire sprinkler systems. Water damage from broken water lines and sprinklers is another hazard following an earthquake. Earthquakes have the potential of causing hazardous materials incidents, not only from stored laboratory equipment, but from storage tanks and other materials used for campus operations. Buildings that predate current seismic code requirements are at risk to severe earthquake damage. MSU-Bozeman officials are very aware of the potential impacts from earthquakes. In 2003, an 80-yearold 170-foot-tall, unreinforced brick smokestack was removed in order to prevent a potential collapse. The smokestack, designed in 1922 and considered a landmark, had the potential to shut down the entire university for up to a year if it collapsed. Chunks of the stack could have pierced the high-pressure boilers below that provide heat to the entire campus, causing a huge steam explosion. Dorms, classrooms and dining halls would freeze, students would be sent home, tuition money refunded, and MSU-Bozeman would be out of business for months (“Smokestack Must Come Down, MSU Officials Explain”, Bozeman Daily Chronicle, January 25, 2003). In 2001, the Renne Library was renovated which included seismic enhancements. Other campus buildings which have undergone seismic retrofits include Hamilton Hall (partial), Montana Hall (partial), Heating Plant, SUB, Plew Building, Brick Breeden Fieldhouse, and the Marga Hosaeus Fitness Center. In 2012, MSU-Bozeman received a $2.2 million grant from FEMA to seismically retrofit the Creative Arts Complex (Cheever, Haynes, and Howard Halls). Within the 2018 -2019 Governor’s Executive Budget, Long Range Building Program, MSU-Bozeman is requesting $4,000,000 to conduct seismic upgrades that would stabilize the 3 rd and 4 th floors in Hamilton Hall. 4.5.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Earthquake Moderate High Moderate Moderate High (28) MSU ANNEX 4-9 A 4.6 ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS 4.6.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY Research and teaching institutions such as MSU-Bozeman are faced with unique hazards, due to the variety of hazardous materials and equipment used on campus. Examples include lasers, experimental electrical systems, equipment which releases radiation, and hazardous materials (detailed in the Hazardous Material Incidents section). Furthermore, many labs on campus utilize equipment which operates at high temperatures, is used to cut hard materials, or operates under a high-pressure system. Proper safety training is crucial for individuals who use or work near this equipment, though training does not guarantee an incident won’t occur. Other environmental hazards which effect the County overall may also occur on campus. These hazards include contaminated drinking water, lead poisoning due to drinking water distribution systems or paint, carbon monoxide poisoning, reduced air quality due to wildfire, and mold, among others outlined in the County HMP. 4.6.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE No major incidents involving enviro nmental hazards have been recorded at MSU-Bozeman, though the potential certainly exists, considering the frequency with which potentially dangerous equipment is used. The magnitude of an incident will vary depending on the nature of the hazard or equipme nt. MSU -Bozeman has well documented safety protocols and response plans. Thus, the magnitude of an event is expected to be limited. 4.6.3 VULNERABILITY In most incidents the primary impact is to human life and health. MSU continually refines its safety plans and makes every effort to ensure labs are outfitted with safety equipment to prevent and minimize incidents. Depending on the type of hazard, damage to buildings and infrastructure is possible. Smoke pollution from fires can damage HVAC equipment, a laser accident may weaken the structural integrity of building, and contaminated water may corrode pipes. Any inc ident has the potential to impact the economic wellbeing of MSU-Bozeman, should the event attract publicity and cause students to become concerned for their safety. 4.6.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Environmental Hazard Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) MSU ANNEX 4-10 A 4.7 HAZARDOUS MATERIAL INCIDENTS 4.7.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY Hazardous materials are used and stored throughout the campus and can include petroleum products, laboratory chemicals, batteries, and compressed gas cylinders. Waste materials generated from labs and research may be hazardous and can include infectious wa ste, radiological waste, photographic and x-ray fixer waste, and chromatography waste. Building renovations also have hazardous material concerns associated with asbestos, lead-based paint, and mold. Most chemicals are stored on sturdy shelves with lips fo r protection against spillage from minor earthquakes. Petroleum storage is centralized and has secondary containment. A hazardous material release is the contamination of the environment (i.e., air, water, soil) by any material that because of its quantity, concentration, or physical or chemical characteristics threatens human health, the environment, or property. Hazardous material incidents that have occurred at MSU-Bozeman are listed in Table 4-1 below. Table 4-1. Hazardous Material Incidents at MSU-Bozeman Date Comments 9/1994 Students were evacuated from Gaines Hall when smoke came from the hazardous waste collection center in the building’s basement. It was determined to not be a health danger (MSU Ready to Move Hazardous Waste , Bozeman Daily Chronicle, November 25, 1997). 2/17/2000 A student suffered minor burns and blisters on hi s elbow, lower legs and ankles when the bottom fell out of a gallon jug containing sulfuric acid. The student was treated and released at the Student Health Center. Emergency showers in the chemistry labs prevented further injury. The Bozeman Fire Departme nt’s Hazardous Materials team dispensed a neutralizer on the spill for cleanup to occur (MSU Student Suffers Burns in Organic Chemistry Lab Spill , Bozeman Daily Chronicle). 5/25/2000 An MSU-Bozeman janitor found a reddish -brown liquid covering the floors in three basement rooms in the Cooley Building which houses biology labs. The Bozeman Fire Department’s Hazardous Materials team was called in to assist in the identification of the substance (Chemical Spill Causes Stir at MSU , Bozeman Daily Chronicle). 10/18/2001 A manager at the MSU -Bozeman food service in Hapner Hall found a package of tomatoes covered with a white powder. The Bozeman Fire Department’s Hazardous Material team was called to determine whether a health concern existed. (MSU Food Service Workers Get Scare , Bozeman Daily Chronicle). 11/17/2010 One of MSU’s largest buildings was closed after it was discovered than workers had been removing ceiling tiles for three weeks without proper precautions to prevent the possible release of asbestos. (Asbestos Scare Closes MSU’s Leon Johnson Hall, Bozeman Daily Chronicle). 4/30/2018 MSU’s Native American studies office was closed after an employee opened a letter and immediately became dizzy and nauseated. (FBI, police investigate suspicious letter to MSU , Bozeman Daily Chronicle). MSU ANNEX 4-11 A MSU-Bozeman has developed a comprehensive hazardous materials management program to assist all laboratory and non -laboratory chemical and chemical product users in meeting the waste disposal and regulation guidelines adopted by the Montana Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ). The SRM provides hazardous waste disposal services for the university. SRM provides information/assistance for compliance with other state and federal environmental or chemical use regulations as well as laboratory inspection guidelines, chemical hygiene p lans, and laboratory safety training. MSU-Bozeman has a p rogram that outlines the requirements and responsibilities associated with the Occupancy/Vacancy of Laboratories on the MSU campus. Adherence to the guidelines is necessary to ensure the quality of laboratory facilities is maintained and to prevent hazardous material incidents. MSU also has a Chemical Safety Program, Waste Disposal Guidelines, and a Hazardous Material Policy. Waste containers are picked up regularly for disposal by a third-party vendor. SRM does not charge departments for hazardous waste disposal. It is an essential service that supports teaching, research, and the operation of the university. However, chemical users have the responsibility to purchase and manage chemicals in a pruden t manner. Responsible parties are charged for unusually dangerous or expensive chemical disposal problems resulting from unwarranted purchasing, excessive quantities of chemicals, or poor management/storage of chemicals. MSU-Bozeman has a Hazard Communication Plan, to ensure compliance with the updated OSHA Hazard Communication Standard, 29 CFR 1910.1200. The standard requires that all employees who work with Hazardous Chemicals (cleaning and industrial chemicals, laboratory chemicals, solvents or acids, mechanical fluids, etc.) be trained. MSU provides a 90 -minute Hazard Communication course, every 3 -4 weeks between February and December, which outlines the risks of exposure to chemicals , and the mitigating steps to work safely. Equivalent training is avai lable online The Bozeman Fire Department staffs one of six regional hazardous materials response teams in the state. The City of Bozeman and Gallatin County have partnered to provide Level A hazardous materials response and assist MSU-Bozeman as needed. 4.7.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE Hazardous materials incidents can cause death, serious injury, long-lasting health effects, and damage to campus property. The magnitude of any hazardous material event would depend on the amount and material spilled. Due to the number of hazardous materials events which have occurred at the MSU- Bozeman campus, but lack of major incidents, the probability of future events is rated as “moderate”. 4.7.3 VULNERABILITIES The Emergency Planning and Community Right-to -Know Act (EPCRA) was enacted in 1986 to inform communities and citizens of chemical hazards in their areas. Sections 311 and 312 of EPCRA require businesses to report the locations and quantities of chemicals stored on-site to state and local governments in order to help communities prepare to respond to chemical spills and similar emergencies. MSU ANNEX 4-12 A The volume and type of hazardous materials that flow into, are stored, and flow through communities will determine exposure to a potential release of hazardous materials. An accidental or intentional release of materials could produce a health hazard to those in the immediate area, downwind, and/or downstream. HVAC systems, if not properly shut down or controlled during a hazardous material event, have the potential to distri bute hazardous material fumes throughout the building. Proper use of a building’s HVAC system during both indoor and outdoor hazardous material releases can greatly reduce the impact of an event (Berkeley Lab, 2004). 4.7.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Hazardous Material Incidents Moderate Low Moderate Low Low (18) 4.8 REGULATORY COMPLIANCE RISK 4.8.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY Universities are regulated under a variety of authorities. MSU-Bozeman must ensure it is complying to a myriad of regulations, including federal, civil rights, privacy and information security, international, environmental, and financial. Ensuring compliance is a monumental task, especially as regulat ions are subject to frequent change. A recent study found that regulatory compliance accounts for 3 to 11 percent of higher education institutions’ operating expenses (Vanderbilt University, 2015). It should be noted maintaining compliance is not enough i n many cases to ensure the university follows best practices to protect the health and safety of its many students, staff, and other participants. The Virginia Tech shooting, detailed in the Active Killer Section (4.1), offers an example of such a scenario . In the aftermath of the shooting, many criticized the university for its perceived failings before and during the incident, despite evidence the university followed all applicable regulations at the time. Maintaining compliance and ensuring best safety practices requires proactive planning and coordination across campus. MSU -Bozeman strives to meet these ideals through a variety of mechanisms, including multi-disciplinary teams. 4.8.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE Failure to maintain compliance could have disastro us effects on the university. In extreme cases, the university could be forced to close. In other cases, the university may lose accreditation, thereby severely eroding the usefulness of the degrees it confers. In less extreme scenarios, the university may be faced with fines and other penalties. As regulatory and operational complexity increases so does the likelihood of an accidental lapse in compliance. In the near-term, the probability is considered moderate, due to the large number of rules and regulations to which the university must comply. MSU ANNEX 4-13 A 4.8.3 VULNERABILITIES Regulatory compliance failures have the greatest impact on human health, safety, and quality of life, as well as the economic feasibility of the university. Students, staff, and faculty rely on university to ensure a safe environment. Additionally, students choose MSU-Bozeman with the expectation they will receive a quality education which will serve them well throughout the rest of their life. Failing to meet regulations associated with these factors therefore negatively impacts students. MSU-Bozeman would be financially vulnerable, should a regulatory compliance failure occur. The university is dependent on tuition and federal, state, and local monies to maintain operation. Should a failure cause any one of these financial sources to become interrupted or rescinded, the university may not be able to continue to operate effectively. 4.8.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Regulatory Compliance Risk Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) 4.9 SEVERE WEATHER 4.9.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY Severe weather encompasses both summer and winter weather events, which are detailed in the sections below. SEVERE SUMMER WEATHER Severe summer weather includes thunderstorms, wind, hail, lightning, tornadoes, and microbursts that typically occur between May and October of each year. MSU-Bozeman has experienced severe summer weather in the past, most recently in the form of a severe hail event in 2010 which caused significant damage to campus buildings. This event is described below. June 30, 2010: A large hailstorm stuck Bozeman and the Gallatin Valley on June 30, 2010. Golf ball-sized hail started pounding Bozeman around 4:00pm and continued to fall for about a half hour. The MSU campus was directly in the path of the hailstorm, which bombarded building, cars and people with hailstones up to 2.5 inches across. The hail broke 800 to 1,000 windows on campus. Windows located on west- and south-facing walls suffered the most damage. Most of the windows on the west side of Roberts Hall were broken, along with numerous windows in the North and South Hedges, two of the university’s high-rise residence halls. The hailstorm resulted in over $60 million in damages from repair to windows, roofs and tree damage on the campus and elsewhere in Gallatin County. The total damage at MSU-Bozeman was $8,864,985 including the amount reimbursed by insurance. Additional severe summer weather events on the MSU-Bozeman campus are presented in Table 4-2. Except as otherwise noted, the source of this data is from the Montana Department of Administration (MDOA), Risk Management and Tort Defense, Property Casualty Insurance Information System (PCIIS). MSU ANNEX 4-14 A Table 4-2. Severe Summer Weather at MSU-Bozeman Date Comments Undated A violent thunderstorm caused a breach in an asbestos remediation project in Roberts Hall on the MSU-Bozeman campus (2007 PDM Plan Public Meeting). 5/5/1995 The Animal Science Building on the MSU -Bozeman campus sustained $7,081in damages due to lightning. 6/16/1995 Thunderstorm winds blew part of the roof off the city fairgrounds grandstand. Roof damage was also reported at the Fine Arts Center on the MSU -Bozeman campus. A gust of 68 mph was recorded at the National Weather Service office in Bozeman (NCDC, 2013). 7/29/1995 Two buildings on campus sustained wind damage. 8/25/1995 Lightning hit the Chemistry Building on the MSU -Bozeman campus causing $4,420 in damages. 5/31/1997 High winds caused $6,436 in damages to the tennis bubble on the MSU -Bozeman campus. 7/3/1998 A hailstorm caused $48,112 in property damage to a campus building. 6/8/1999 Wind caused roof damage to a campus building. 8/4/1999 Lightning damaged phone equipment on the MSU -Bozeman campus causing $17,680 in damages. 8/29/1999 The stadium scoreboard on the MSU -Bozeman campus was damaged by lightning. 9/24/1999 High winds caused $3,517 in damages to the campus tennis bubble. 8/4/2000 A campus radio transmitter was struck by lightning causing $9,499 in damages. 9/1/2000 High winds caused a tree to fall onto Traphagen Hall causing $12,705 in damages. 4/20/2001 High winds caused $24,655 in roof damage to a campus building. 6/30/2001 A storage trailer on campus was damaged by hail. 7/28/2001 A transformer and power pole on campus was damaged by high winds. 6/21/2002 Lightning caused a campus fire alar m system to malfunction causing $5,736 in damages. 9/12/2003 A tent on campus sustained $11,800 in damages due to high winds. 5/13/2007 Hail caused $64,146 in roof damage to greenhouse panels. 5/17/2007 Fencing blow over at tennis courts causing $12,980 in damages. 7/4/2008 Lightning caused $5,795 in damage to electrical and phone systems on campus. 7/18/2008 Hail caused a broken greenhouse panel. 7/22/2008 Major rain/hail event flooded campus causing $250,000 in property damage. 8/29/2011 Power outage from storm caused $600 in damages to autoclave. SEVERE WINTER WEATHER Severe winter weather includes several weather conditions that occur from late fall through early spring (November through April). Winter storms have the potential to destroy property and kill livestock and people. Winter storms may be categorized as sleet, ice storms or freezing rain, heavy snowfall or blizzards, and low temperatures. Blizzards are most commonly connected with blowing snow and low visibility. Winter also brings sustained straight-line winds that can be well over 50 mph. MSU ANNEX 4-15 A 4.9.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE Summer storms, snowstorms and bitterly cold temperatures are common occurrences in the City of Bozeman and MSU campus and generally do not cause any problems. Severe summer weather affects areas with significant tree stands, as well as areas with exposed property, major infrastructure, and aboveground utility lines. Severe hailstorms can also cause considerable damage to buildings and automobiles, but rarely result in loss of life. Blizzards can occur and overwhelm the ability to keep roads passable. Heavy snow and ice events also have the potential to bring down power lines and trees. Extreme wind chill temperatures may harm residents if unprotected outdoors or if heating mechanisms are disrupted. The history of severe weather events in the City of Bozeman, Gallatin County, and on the MSU-Bozeman campus indicate that they occur more than once per year. Therefore, the probability of this hazard occurring in the future is rated as “high”. 4.9.3 VULNERABILITY Structures, utilities, and vehicles are most at risk from severe weather. Windstorms can break power poles and damage roofs. Windstorms can uproot trees and break large limbs potentially causing damage to surrounding structures when they fall. Large amounts of debris left in the path of a windstorm can block routes potentially delay emergency response vehicles. Severe hailstorms also cause considerable damage to buildings and automobiles, but rarely result in loss of life. Damages from hailstorms in Gallatin County have included broken windows on homes, power outages, and vehicular damages. Large windows are vulnerable to shattering during hailstorms causing property damage and personal injury. Hailstorms accompanied by high winds can cause more severe damage than hail alone. Damage to siding and roofing often occurs during severe hailstorms. Buildings with asphalt shingles are the most vulnerable to hail damage whereas those with tile shingles or metal roofs are considered hail-resistant. Structures at MSU-Bozeman are constructed to withstand reasonable snow loads. The greatest risk to MSU-Bozeman during winter weather events are loss of power and the potential for frozen pipes during extended extreme cold temperatures. Frozen water lines would hinder the steam plant’s ability to provide heat to campus buildings creating an exposure hazard. Frozen water lines during extreme cold spells may also hinder firefighting efforts on campus. Since winter storms and cold spells typically do not cause major structural damage, the greatest threat to the population is the potential for utility failure during a cold spell. Although cold temperatures and snow are normal in Bozeman, handling the extremes can go beyond the capabilities of the community. Should the temperatures drop below -15 F for over 30 days, or several feet of snow fall in a short period of time, the magnitude of frozen water pipes and sewer lines or impassable streets could result in disastrous conditions for many people. If power lines were to fail due to snow/ice load, winds, or any other complicating factor, the situation would be compounded. Sheltering of the campus population could present significant logistical problems when maintained over a period of more than a day. Transportation, communication, energy (electric, natural gas, and vehicle fuels), shelter supplies, medical care, food availability and preparation, and sanitation issues all become exceedingly difficult to manage in extreme weather conditions. Local government resources could be quickly overwhelmed. Mutual aid and state aid might be hard to receive due to the regional impact of this kind of event. MSU ANNEX 4-16 A According to the MSU Facilities Services manual, there are over 25 miles (18 acres) of sidewalks that must be cleared after each snow event, nearly five miles of streets that need snow removal and traction treatment, some 200 building entries need to be shoveled, and there is only one crew centered around a single shift for snow rem oval—it is not a 24-hour operation. According to Facilities Services’ Snow Removal Policy, each semester, disabled students are asked to identify the routes that they take to reach their classes on campus maps. Landscape and Grounds then makes every effort to make sure that those routes are given top priority in the snow removal process. Equal in priority, and often coinciding with the disabled routes, are the main pedestrian and vehicular circulation routes. Particular attention is given to known problem areas, such as hills or places where melt water forms ponds which turn to ice, and these are checked periodically throughout the shift. To help make the campus paved surfaces as safe as possible, street sanding operations take place three to four times pe r day when icy conditions exist. Sidewalks are sanded about half as frequently as are the street intersections. During particularly icy conditions, all sidewalks are sanded twice per day, and problem areas are sanded more often. Even when weather and surface conditions are relatively static, street intersections and sidewalks are checked for excessively slippery conditions several times daily. Safety and Risk Management has a Cold Weather Precautions Policy designed as a preventative measure to reduce risks of property damage to MSU buildings resulting from periods of cold and snowy weather. In general, the trigger point for inspection and cold weather prevention activities is < 20 F. The policy places responsibility for extra notification to occupants prior to significant cold weather events with SRM. SRM is responsible for confirming with the various user groups, Facilities Services, Residence Life, Family Housing, and Sports Facilities, their cold weather procedures will be adhered to prior to winter and s ignificant cold weather events. Procedures for implementing precautionary cold weather measures vary dependent on the facility and its use. In general, this policy reminds users to look at the building envelope for weather tightness, and also to check for clear and functional drainage systems, functional louvers and dampers, drained and/or antifreeze protected water systems, functional heating systems, extra portable heaters if necessary, and proper signage to make sure occupants remember to leave items like doors to unheated spaces, and fume hood sashes, partially open. 4.9.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Severe Weather High Moderate High Low High (42) 4.10 STRUCTURE FIRE 4.10.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY Structure fires have many causes including smoking, arson, industrial accidents, electrical malfunctions, laboratory accidents, and lightning. Fires also occur as a secondary effect of an earthquake when inflexible gas lines rupture . A large fire has the potential to cause high casualties and can result in secondary impacts such as hazardous material release and damaged utilities. Older buildings that were constructed without fire evacuation routes are at a higher risk for casualties . MSU ANNEX 4-17 A Residence halls are at the highest risk to structural fire due to students living near each other and being engaged in activities that can cause fires. Residence hall fires are often ignited by faulty appliances, lamps, overloaded outlets, smoking, cooking or candles. According to the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), the number of reported fires in dormitories increased 23 percent from 3,200 in 1980 to 4,180 in 2015. Since 2003, annual estimates have ranged from a low of 3,350 fires to a high of 4,230 in 2014. During the five-year period 2011 -2015, U.S. fire departments responded to an estimated annual average of 4,100 structure fires in dormitories, fraternities, sororities, and barracks. These fires caused an annual average of 35 injuries, and $14 million in property damage. Structure fires in dormitories, fraternities, and soro rities are more common during the evening hours between 5 - 9 pm, and on weekends. More than two -thirds (72%) of these fires began in the kitchen or cooking area. Only 7% of fires in these properties began in the bedroom, but these fires accounted for almo st one-quarter of the injuries. (NFPA, 2017). Fire safety is essential in protecting a campus community from injuries, deaths, business interruption, and property damage resulting from fires. To standardize the information an institution publishes on fire safety, the U.S. Department of Education requires all universities that maintain on -campus student housing facilities and receive federal funding to publish an annual fire safety report, maintain a fire log, and report fire statistics to the Secretary of Education. The MSU-Bozeman fire report is provided in Table 4-3. Table 4-3. MSU-Bozeman Fire Log (Montana State University, 2018) Date Location Comments 10/5/2010 South Hedges Hall A burned piece of paper was taped to the South Hedges south elevator. 4/5/2010 Roskie Hall A cigarette butt had burned a hole in a garbage can located on the 5 th floor. 1/16/2010 Roskie Hall A corner of a door decoration on the fifth floor was singed as was part of the door. 3/9/2010 Roskie Hall There was a small burn on a door decoration on the sixth floor. 3/17/2010 Johnstone Center A student possession had caught on fire and burned a hole in the carpet. 10/26/2011 Langford Hall A singed poster was found on the exterior of the building. 1/23/2012 South Hedges Hall Staff member discovered a singed door decoration during routine rounds. 2/7/2012 Roskie Hall Student employee observed a resident’s attempt to light a doorknob on fire. 1/29/2012 North Hedges Hall A student staff member found a trash can outside the building with a melted bag inside. 2/15/2012 Roskie Hall Staff members discovered a signed door decoration during routine rounds. 3/4/2012 Peter Koch Tower There was a small stovetop fire. 3/6/2012 North Hedges Hall Staff members discovered a si ng ed door decoration during routine rounds. 3/7/2012 North Hedges Hall Staff members discovered a singed door decoration during routine rounds. MSU ANNEX 4-18 A Date Location Comments 3/24/2012 North Hedges Hall Staff members discovered a poster with a singed corner during routine rounds. 4/5/2012 North Hedges Hall Staff members discovered black smoke marks inside east and west elevators. 4/10/2012 North Hedges Hall Staff members discovered black smoke marks inside an elevator. 4/15/2012 North Hedges Hall Staff members discovered a poster with a singed corner during routine rounds. 9/14/2012 Quad A Staff members discovered a partially bur ned poster during routine rounds. 10/8/2012 Roskie Hall There was a stove top fire in the kitchen. 10/16/2012 South Hedges Staff members discovered a singed poster on a door. 11/11/2012 Roskie Hall Staff members discovered burned posters on the 3 rd floor during routine rounds. 11/25/2012 North Hedges Hall Staff members discovered a poster on the 6 th floor with a burned corner during routine rounds. 11/27/2012 North Hedges Hall Staff members discovered a poster on the 6 th floor with a burned corner during routine rounds. 11/30/212 North Hedges Hall Staff members discovered a burned door decoration on the 5 th floor during routine rounds. 12/10/2012 Roskie Hall A staff member on the third floor found burn marks in the ceiling by the elevator. 12/12/2012 Roskie Hall Several items were found to be burned on the 2 nd floor. 1/25/2013 Roskie Hall A staff member found the bulletin board between the elevators on the 3 rd floor singed. 1/27/2013 Roskie Hall A staff member noticed “FEALTH” burned into the ceiling in the 3 rd floor public area. 2/7/2013 Roskie Hall “S” burned into the ceiling in the 8 th /9 th pink stairwell. 4/1/2013 Roskie Hall “Murica” burned into the ceiling of the blue 3 rd floor stairwell. 10/4/2013 Quad F Two residents burned a piece of paper in the hallway. 11/3/2013 Langford Hall Resident started small grease fire in oven. It was extinguished before staff responded. 11/18/2013 South Hedges Hall Burnt poster on the SE door of the South B athroom of 11th floor, the door was burnt as well. Burnt paper in the fire extinguisher box of the SE hallway of 11th floor. Burn marks on the ceiling surrounding a particle detector in the south end of 11th floor. 2/12/2014 South Hedges 11th Floor SE Bathroom, Poster Burned. 4/27/2014 Quad B dumpster Residents put hot coals in dumpster after BBQ event and caught the dumpster on fire melting the dumpster lid. 7/2/2014 Madison Hall Pizza boxes in kitchen oven caught fire. Residents put it out with the fire extinguisher. MSU ANNEX 4-19 A Date Location Comments 11/9/2014 Johnstone Center Resident had poster on his door with a burned corner. 12/4/2014 Langford Hall A small explosion in a resident room as a result of a flammable substance from an aerosol can being exposed to an open flame from a BIC lighter. 2/2/2015 Johnstone Center Burnt corner of a poster in 2nd Floor main stairwell of Pryor Wing. 3/1/2015 Freshmen Apartments Freshman Apartment 101A had outside door decoration that was half burned. 8/14/2015 Roskie Hall Burn holes in ceiling tiles of 6th Floor Teen Pods. Specific Date of incident is unknown. 10/21/2015 Roskie Hall Poster located in 2nd floor stairwell had a one -inch triangular burn at bottom middle of sign. 11/1/2015 Freshmen Apartments A minor fire outside apartment building 113 (West Julia Martin) in the back seat of a vehicle. The cause of fire was undetermined. 1/1/2016 Langford Hall Burned rubber strip and painted wall. 2/6/2016 Langford Hall Langford Hall Room 211 had outside door decorations that were burned, and door/carpet had scorch marks. 3/5/2016 Madison Hall Grease on tin foil covering stove top burner caught fire. Resident put it out with the fire extinguisher. 5/2/2016 South Hedges Hall Burned corner of poster on 8 th floor. 11/7/2016 Freshmen Apartments Apartment had a couch set on fire by a burning paper towel under it. Undetermined who set the fire, but the residents put it out before it could do any damage to the building. 1/18/2017 Freshmen Apartments Pillow was placed on electric stove causing a fire in Freshman Apartment 113A. 7/26/2017 Paisley Court Stove top fire – food caught fire in pan and singed wall. Tenant put out fire with extinguisher. 4.10.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE Most campus fires are small and are confined to burning contents within a building without sustaining major damage to the building itself. This does not however, preclude the possibility of a large-scale structure fire on the MSU-Bozeman campus. As such, the probability of future events is rated as moderate. 4.10.3 VULNERABILITIES Existence of building sprinkler systems are the primary factor that determines the vulnerability from and overall impact of structural fires. All residence halls on campus have fire suppression systems in place. Numerous older buildings on campus do not have sprinklers and are at risk to structure fire. MSU- Bozeman has centralized gas shutoff valves for each zone on campus which decreases the risk of fire on the campus. MSU ANNEX 4-20 A Most buildings on campus have fire and smoke det ection alarm systems. Campus buildings are inspected for fire and life safety on a periodic basis . All hydrants on campus have upgraded fire department connections and are flow tested annually. Fire drills are routinely practiced. Within the residence hal ls, fire drills are conducted in each building at the beginning of each academic period. Fire drills are unannounced and assist in the educational process for students and staff alike. Fire evacuation procedures are outlined on the campus website. Residen t Assistants explain the evacuation procedures to residents at the first -floor meeting of each academic semester, including discussion of evacuation plans posted at each floor exit door. Residents are directed to exit through the nearest safe exit route/st airwell and are informed of the exterior hall meeting location for students. Students are required to evacuate any residence hall immediately upon the sound of an alarm and may not re -enter until authorized by University personnel. During the alarm, front desk personnel document the fire alarm and evacuation progress. Residence Life Senior Staff members facilitate the fire panel and direct residence life staff during the alarm. Residents are not permitted to re -enter until Residence Life staff, fire depart ment personnel, and/or University Police give authorization. All residence halls are equipped with portable fire extinguishers and Resident Assistants attend and complete fire extinguishing training and fire evacuation simulation each academic year. In family and graduate housing, tenants are required to attend a check -in appointment within one week of their move into their apartment. During this meeting, tenants are given instructions on responding to a fire. A Fire Safety Brochure is delivered to all t enants during the week of welcome (September 1 -15). This provides information for new tenants and a refresher for existing tenants. “Exit Drills in the Home” education materials provided by NFPA are provided to the tenants. In addition, a Safety Fair is he ld within first two weeks of fall semester, featuring fire safety along with a variety of other safety related topics. MSU-Bozeman has two policies to mitigate the effects of structure fire, both involving oversight by the MSU Fire Marshal. The Pre -Fire Planning Policy indicates that Emergency Response Plans (ERP), available for all the assembly, academic, dormitories and research buildings at MSU, are reviewed during the spring and summer every year and that occupant training in the form of fire drills is conducted annually. The Fire Protection Equipment Impairment Testing Policy oversees, testing and maintenance scheduling, record keeping, maintenance, and repair of MSU’s fire protection equipment by properly certified and licensed individuals. This equip ment includes: alarm panels, associated indicating devices, detection devices, occupant notification devices, and fire doors; water -based fire sprinkler systems; fire pumps; clean agent extinguishing systems; dry chemical fixed extinguishing systems; porta ble fire extinguishers; kitchen hood extinguishing systems; standpipes and hose connections; and, fire hydrants. 4.10.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Structure Fire Moderate Moderate Low Low Low (16) MSU ANNEX 4-21 A 4.11 TERRORISM, CIVIL UNREST AND VIOLENCE 4.11.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY Terrorism, civil unrest, and violence are human caused hazards that are intentional and often planned. Terrorism events that could potentially affect the campus are cyber-attacks, armed attacks, car bombs, or a chemical, biological, or nuclear attack. Terrorists might also target large public gatherings, such as campus sporting events. MSU University Police are proactive in assessing vulnerabilities and threats to student and staff safety on campus and enforce both law and university policy on campus and within university jurisdiction in the surrounding community. Initiatives by university police designed to foster individual safety and protect property inc lude organizing, training and supervising a Student Security group. Student Security provides additional "eyes and ears" for university police as they patrol parking lots and other areas of the campus during hours of darkness and provide escorts for persons requesting such from university buildings to residences and personal transportation. University police have installed surveillance cameras for residence hall parking lots which have resulted in an increase in property crimes solved, and an anonymous tele phone tip line allows any person to report a crime or suspected crime at any time. University police officers receive special training in investigative techniques, and detectives are specially trained in sexual assault response and investigation. Violence on college campuses is common. The U.S. Department of Justice indicates that college students ages 18 to 24 experienced violence at average annual rates lower than those for non-students in the same age group (61 per 1,000 students versus 75 per 1,000 non-students). Except for rape/sexual assault, average annual rates were lower for students than for non-students for each type of violent crime measured (robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault). Rates of rape/sexual assault for the two groups did not differ statistically. In recent years, hate crimes have occurred on many college campuses. Hate crimes occur when a perpetrator targets a victim because of his or her perceived membership in a certain social group. Examples of such groups include but are not limited to racial group, religion, sexual orientation, ethnicity or gender identity. Incidents may involve physical assault, damage to property, bullying, harassment, verbal abuse or insults, or offensive graffiti or letters (hate mail). 4.11.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE The effects of terrorism can vary significantly from loss of life and injuries to property damage and disruptions in services such as electricity, water supply, public transportation, and communications. There is a lack of history of local terrorism, though minor acts of violence are frequent on campuses. Due to these factors, the probability of an incident of terrorism, civil unrest, or violence is considered “moderate.” 4.11.3 VULNERABILITIES The origins and targets for terrorism and civil unrest are difficult to predict. Individuals or groups that feel oppressed on any issue can resort to violent acts to inflict harm and damage to gain publicity or affect MSU ANNEX 4-22 A policy. The locations of these attacks can occur anywhere but often the symbols that represen t a threat to their cause are often the target. Terrorist attacks have the potential to affect structures, infrastructure, and human life. If a large explosion was to occur on campus the effects could be devastating. This is especially true if an attack w as planned to coincide with an event that concentrated a large population in a single structure. MSU-Bozeman currently checks student identification for building access after class hours. The Residence Hall Security Policy describes the specific security policies for each of the residence halls, including policies pertaining to lock -down, escort requirements and check -in policies. MSU-Bozeman has a policy for reporting suspicious activity and a policy for bomb threats. 4.11.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILES Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Terrorism, Civil Unrest a Violence Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate (20) 4.12 VOLCANIC ERUPTION 4.12.1 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORY Volcanic eruption is generally not a major concern in Montana due to the relatively low probability (compared with other hazards) of events in any given year. However, Montana is within a region that has significant potential for volcanic activity. The distribution of ash from a violent eruption i s a function of the weather, particularly wind direction and speed and atmospheric stability, and the duration of the eruption. As the prevailing wind in the mid - latitudes of the northern hemisphere is generally from the west, ash would typically be spread eastward from a volcanic eruption. Exceptions to this rule do, however, occur. Ash fall, because of its potential widespread distribution, offers some significant volcanic hazards. 4.12.2 PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE There are no active volcanoes in Gallatin County but an eruption hundreds of miles away can cause volcanic ash to be deposited on the MSU -Bozeman campus potentially causing health impacts and property damage. Due to the low frequency of large volcanic eruptions nearby, the probability is considered “low .” 4.12.3 VULNERABILITY Volcanic ash can cause failure of electronic components, interrupt telephone and radio communications, and cause internal combustion engines to stall. Airborne particles of volcanic ash can pose a health risk to people with respiratory con ditions. Volcanic ash has the following effects (USGS, 2003): / Short-circuits and failure of electronic components, especially high -voltage / circuits and transformers (wet ash conducts electricity). / Eruption clouds and ashfall commonly interrupt or prevent telephone and radio communications. MSU ANNEX 4-23 A / Volcanic ash can cause internal-combustion engines to stall by clogging air filters and damaging moving parts. Engines of jet aircraft have suddenly failed after flying through clouds of even thinly dispersed ash. / Roads, highways, and airport runways can be made treacherous or impassable because ash is slippery and may reduce visibility to near zero. Cars driving faster than 5 miles per hour on ash- covered roads stir up thick clouds of ash, reducing visibility and causing accidents. / Ash also clogs filters used in air-ventilation systems to the point that airflow often stops completely, causing equipment to overheat. / Crop damage can range from negligible to severe, depending on the thickness of ash, type and maturity of plants, and timing of subsequent rainfall. / Like airborne particles from dust storms, forest fires, and air pollution, volcanic ash poses a health risk, especially to children, the elderly, and people with cardiac or respiratory conditions, such as asthma, chronic bronchitis, and emphysema. 4.12.4 OVERALL HAZARD PROFILE Probability of Major Disaster Property Impac Population Impact Economic Impac Overall Risk Volcanic Eruption Low High High Moderate Low (17) 4.13 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Land use and development trends at MSU -Bozeman include the construction of new buildings to respond to campus needs, and upgrading buildings, infrastructure and critical facilities to better protect life safety, address environmental concerns and minimize property dama ge from hazard events. MSU -Bozeman follows Engineering Guidelines (MSU, 2018h) when planning new buildings. Hazard mitigation is integrated into these guidelines and standards to reduce the effects of hazards on new buildings and infrastructure. Much future development is planned for the MSU-Bozeman campus. The Long-Range Building Plan for the MSU-Bozeman campus can be viewed at http://www.montana.edu/lrcdp/. The plan outlines the planning process, and outlines development projects planned for completion within the next 25 years. MSU ANNEX 5-1 A 5.0 MITIGATION STRATEGIES Hazard mitigation, as defined by DMA 2000, is any sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate the long - term risk to human life and property from hazards. The development of a mitigation strategy allows the campus to create a vision for preventing future disasters, establish a set of mitigation goals, prioritize actions, and evaluate the success of such actions. Specific mitigation goals and projects were developed for the MSU-Bozeman campus in 2007 in conjunction with a Hazard Profile Survey, public meeting and stakeholder interviews. A matrix developed for project ranking, emphasizing cost-benefit and input from the campus Advisory Committee, was used to determine project priority. A mitigation action plan was developed as part of the 2013 MSU -PDM Plan update to capture progress made towards project implementation and planned activities to accomplish the high-priority mitigation projects. This 2018 Annex to the county’s HMP update provides a 5-year update of project implementation since 2013, and it describes and prioritizes new projects to be considered for implementation to mitigate identified hazards. A description of the goals and objectives that were identified to mitigate natural, human-made and technological hazards, and a summary of the changes made (additions, deletions, etc.) to the mitigation project list, follows. Project implementation and the legal framework to support these proposed actions are discussed at the conclusion of this section. 5.1 GOALS, OBJECTIVES, AND PROPOSED ACTIONS The goals describe the overall direction that MSU-Bozeman can take to work toward mitigating risk from natural, human-made and technological hazards. The 10 primary goals included in the 2013 MSU-PDM Plan update are retained in the 2018 Annex. The 2013 Plan update focused on the existing mitigation strategy established in the original 2007 PDM Plan, with an emphasis on planned implementation of the high-priority projects. No new objectives were added to the 2018 Annex, however two of the mitigation objectives from the 2013 update have been deleted in the 2018 Annex because the projects included for those objectives have been completed. The deleted objectives, and projects completed under those objectives include: / Objective 3.2: Protect Academic Research and Reduce Loss of Intellectual Property. - Project 3.2.1: Establish policy for management of research documentation. (completed; HYALITE Computer and Storage Cluster installed in December 2014 ) / Objective 6.1: Ensure Protection for Hazardous Materials from Hazard Events. - Project 6.1.1: Maintain detailed inventory/database and centralized data management of hazardous chemicals on campus a nd create GIS layer. (completed; the data inventory system is implemented and went “live” in Fall 2018 ) MSU ANNEX 5-2 A This 2018 Annex updates the 2013 Plan’s mitigation strategy with several new projects identified as well as deletion of mitigation projects that have be en completed. The following is a list of new projects identified under existing objectives: - Project 1.3.4: Install Waterbugs in research buildings and other critical locations to detect water breaks and leaks. - Project 1.3.5: Install Central Heating P lant back-up fuel storage replacement. - Project 5.1.17: Protect IT systems from all hazards by utilizing cloud-based storage; develop cloud -based phone bank for use during disasters. - Project 5.1.18: Identify critical university assets and develop a Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP). - Project 5.1.19: Replacement of various back-up generators; includes Central Heating Plant back- up generator. - Project 5.1.20: Develop centralized primary electric generators. - Project 5.2.5: Develop Campus Evacuation Procedure. - Project 5.2.6: Procure vehicle for animal transport during evacuation. - Project 5.3.8: Update and improve the existing Emergency Operations Plan (EOP). - Project 8.1.3: Identify and procure cameras for campus. Several other projects that appeared in the 2013 MSU-PDM Plan update have either been completed or will not be pursued further as mitigation projects. These include: - Project 1.2.2: Develop a campus -wide strategy to implement non-structural mitigation practices. - P roject 1.3.2: Develop plans to prevent water damage to voice and data electronic equipment and cabling. - Project 2.1.2: Consider alternate fire suppression for central library and computer facilities. - Project 3.1.2: Establish off-site storage for tape backup of IT and Telecommunications systems. - Project 3.1.3: Implement digital archiving by securing necessary equipment. - Project 5.1.2: Inventory and prioritize water and sewer lines that need to be upgraded. - Project 5.1.7: Prioritize buildings f or emergency generators and install pigtail connections for mobile generator. - Project 5.1.8: Obtain at least three mobile generators for campus critical facilities. - Project 5.1.11: Evaluate campus buildings for suitability as emergency shelters. - Project 5.1.14: Create a GIS layer of campus utilities and tie into City system - Project 5.1.17: Protect IT systems from all hazards by utilizing cloud-based storage; develop cloud-based phone bank for use during disasters. - Project 5.1.18: Identify critical university assets and develop a Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP). MSU ANNEX 5-3 A - Project 5.1.19: Replacement of various back -up generators; includes Central Heating Plant back-up generator. - Project 5.1.20: Develop centralized primary electric generators. - Project 5.2.3: Install signage marking evacuation routes from campus buildings. - Project 5.2.5: Develop Campus Evacuation Procedure. - Project 5.2.6: Procure vehicle for animal transport during evacuation. - Project 5.3.3: Develop University-wide post-disaster recovery plan. - Project 5.3.5: Conduct training exercises on a regular basis. - Project 5.3.7: Develop Utilities Continuity Plan. - Project 5.3.8: Update and improve the existing Emergency Operations Plan (EOP). - Project 6.1.2: Establish protection/security of fuel storage facility. - Project 6.1.3: Identify specific non -structural mitigation projects for hazardous materials. - Project 7.1.6: Maintain Emergency Disaster and Recovery Instructions in the MSU -Bozeman Telephone Directory. - Project 8.1.1: Install enhanced building security (card access, cameras, blue light emergency telephone). - Project 8.1.3: Identify and procure cameras for campus. - Project 10.1.1: Conduct landscape inventory to evaluate potential vuln erabilities. - Project 10.1.2: Develop standards for tree/landscape maintenance. 5.1.1 CREATIVE ARTS COMPLEX SEISMIC RETROFIT The Creative Arts Complex Seismic Retrofit is a significant mitigation project that was completed on the MSU-Bozeman campus since the 2 013 PDM update in 2013. Built in 1974, the Creative Arts Complex consists of Haynes, Cheever and Howard Halls and houses the College of Arts and Architecture, School of Art and the School of Music, and College of Agriculture and Technology Education programs, as well as campus Registrar-scheduled classrooms and lecture/performance halls. These three concrete frame buildings (see photos, below) were all designed and built simultaneously, and as such have very similar structural systems. The buildings are in good condition but were constructed prior to the current day modern seismic building codes, and the upgrades to be constructed within this project were for the purpose of improving their structural performance during a major seismic event. Construction wa s completed in the summer of 2013 for Howard and Cheever Hall's, and summer of 2014 for Haynes Hall. The reason for phasing the seismic project over two summers was to accommodate the fall school schedule as this project involves a tremendous amount of demolition in and around the buildings. The structural elements that were added to the buildings included complete removal and replacement of interior CMU walls, addition of CMU walls next to existing walls, grade beams with helical piers and the addition of interior and exterior steel brace frames. MSU ANNEX 5-4 A Phase I (Howard and Cheever): completed summer 2013; Phase II (Haynes Hall): completed end of summer 2014. MSU ANNEX 5-5 A 5.2 PROJECT RANKING AND PRIORITIZATION Each of the proposed projects has value; however, due to time and financial constraints it is not possible to implement all projects immediately. Project prioritization allows the most critical and cost-effective actions to be realized in the short term. A cost-benefit matrix was developed to rank the mitigatio n projects using the following criteria. Each project was assigned a “high”, “medium”, or “low” rank for population protected, property protected, services impacted, project feasibility and cost: / Population Protected: A “high” rank means more than 50 percent of the campus population would be protected by implementation of the mitigation strategy; a “medium” rank means 20 to 50 percent of campus population would be protected; and, a “low” rank means less than 20 percent of the campus population would be protected. / Property Protected: A “high” rank means greater than $500,000 worth of property would be protected through implementation of the mitigation strategy; “medium” means $100,000 to $500,000 worth of property would be protected; and, “low” means less than $100,000 worth of property would be protected. / Services Impacted: A “high” rank represents that continuity of campus services would be maintained on greater than 50 percent of the campus by implementation of the mitigation strategy; a “medium” rank represents 20 to 50 percent of campus services would be maintained; and, a “low” rank represents less than 20 percent of the campus services would be maintained. / Project Feasibility: A “high” rank means technology is available and implementation is likely; a “medium” rank means technology may be available, but implementation could be difficult; and, a “low” rank means no technology is available or implementation would be unlikely. / Project Cost: A “high” rank means the mitigation project would cost more than $500 ,000; a “medium” rank means the project cost would be between $100,000 and $500,000; and, “low” means the project would cost less than $100,000. The matrix was completed by assigning each rank a numeric value as presented in Table 5-1. Table 5-1. Mitigation Project Cost-Benefit Matrix Population Protected Property Protected Services Impacted Project Feasibility Cost High 5 5 5 5 1 Medium 3 3 3 3 3 Low 1 1 1 1 5 The overall cost-benefit was calculated by summing the total score for each project. Table 5-2 presents the 2018 MSU Annex mitigation strategy showing project cost -benefit scores. The stakeholder group determined project priority based on the need for the project. The prioritization of the projects serves as a guide for choosing and funding projects; however, depending on the funding sources, some actions may be best achieved outside the priorities established here. MSU ANNEX 5-6 A Table 5-2. MSU-Bozeman Mitigation Strategy: Project Ranking and Responsible Departments Goal Objective Project Hazard(s) Mitigated Hi g h -Me d i u m - Lo w S c o r e Nu m e r i c S c o r e Ca m p u s P r i o r i t y Sc h e d u l e / S t a t u s Responsible Department Goal 1: Reduce or Prevent Losses from Earthquake Hazard Objective 1.1: Prevent and/or Reduce Structural Damage on Campus 1.1.1 Complete Tier 2 evaluation of campus buildings. Earthquakes Medium 21 Medium Ongoing (evals. continuing, starting with worst case) Campus Planning, Design & Construction (CPDC) 1.1.2 Develop proposals and secure funding to complete retrofit projects for buildings that qualify for FEMA funding. Earthquakes Medium 21 Medium Ongoing (Miller Dining Hall retrofit completed in 2013) CPDC 1.1.3 Implement risk reduction measures into future buildings and/or additions on campus. Earthquakes Medium 21 High Ongoing (all new const. to meet seismic life- safety) CPDC 1.1.4 Develop GIS layer of building risk reduction attributes, including utility layers. Earthquakes Medium 17 High Short-term (not started; possible joint project w/City) CPDC, Emergency Management (EM) 1.1.5 Implement building code upgrades on existing concerns identified in Long Range Building Plan, Strategic Plan, LRCDP, Capital Projects Database and FCI Reports as they relate to life safety issues. Earthquakes Medium 17 High Ongoing (building code upgrades are being accounted for in the Long- Range Building Plan) CPDC 1.1.6 Plan for potential earthquake damage to utilities located in utility tunnels. Earthquakes Medium 21 High Mid-term (not started) Facilities Services Objective 1.2: Protect Students and Building Contents through Implementation of Non- Structural Mitigation Projects 1.2.1 Protect IT systems from seismic hazard by implementing nonstructural mitigation projects. Earthquakes High 25 Medium Ongoing (Cloud-based strategies are being explored to improve disaster resilience and operations continuity) University Information Technology (UIT) Objective 1.3: Prevent Fire and other Secondary Effects from Earthquakes 1.3.1 Install seismic shut-off valves on buildings with natural gas. Earthquakes, Structure Fire High 25 High Ongoing (buildings w/o shutoff valves to be upgraded as funding is available) Facilities Services 1.3.4 Install Waterbugs in research buildings and other critical locations to detect water breaks and leaks. Earthquakes, Severe Weather Medium 19 High Mid-term (not started) Safety & Risk Management (SRM) 1.3.5 Install Central Heating Plant back-up fuel storage replacement. Earthquakes, Structure Fire, Hazardous Material Incidents, Terrorism Medium 19 Medium Long-term (not started) Facilities Services MSU ANNEX 5-7 A Goal Objective Project Hazard(s) Mitigated Hi g h -Me d i u m - Lo w S c o r e Nu m e r i c S c o r e Ca m p u s P r i o r i t y Sc h e d u l e / S t a t u s Responsible Department Goal 2: Reduce or Prevent Losses from Structural Fire Associated with Earthquake Hazard Objective 2.1: Reduce Loss of Human Life and Building Contents from Structural Fire 2.1.1 Install sprinklers and alarm/ detection systems for all campus buildings that aren’t currently equipped. Structure Fire, Earthquakes Medium 19 High Ongoing (as funding is available, vulnerable buildings are outfitted) Facilities Services 2.1.3 Consider relocating critical services, such as computer facilities, from building basements. Structure Fire, Earthquakes Medium 21 Medium Mid-term Facilities Services, UIT Goal 3: Protect Campus Records from Losses Associated with All Hazards Objective 3.1: Implement Digital Archiving and Storage of Campus Records 3.1.1 Develop protocol for digital imaging of all university records. All Hazards Medium 15 Medium Ongoing (Spring 2018 Document Management Program went digital) Admin. & Finance 3.1.4 Establish off-site backup server for Banner system. All Hazards Medium 21 High Ongoing (Cloud-based backup is in place. Migration of entire ERP to Cloud is ongoing). UIT Goal 4: Protect Assets, Collections, and Building Contents from All Hazards Objective 4.1: Safeguard Records, Documents, Specimens, Collections 4.1.1 Establish secure and climate-controlled storage of important documents and artwork. All Hazards Low 13 High Long-term Museum of the Rockies (MOR) 4.1.2 Determine proper storage of museum holdings and academic assets. All Hazards Medium 17 High Long-term MOR, various Departments Goal 5: Implement Mitigation Strategies to Enhance Campus Disaster Preparedness Objective 5.1: Implement Projects to Maintain Continuity of Operations 5.1.1 Establish redundant system and physical protection for all utilities. All Hazards Medium 21 Medium Ongoing (primary electrical protection underway; upgrades as funding is available) Facilities Services 5.1.4 Establish redundant communication systems as needed for existing buildings, new construction and remodel projects. All Hazards Medium 21 Medium Ongoing (status unknown) UIT 5.1.5 Establish off-site computing and telecommunications resources for disaster recovery. All Hazards Medium 21 Medium Mid-term (status unknown; should be addressed in upcoming Continuity of Operations Plan, 2019) UIT 5.1.6 Establish arrangements with other universities to share computing and telecommunications resources during disasters. All Hazards High 25 Medium Mid-term (not started; some discussion has occurred with UM and MSU-Billings for DR- based ERP systems). UIT 5.1.10 Establish a policy for housing students displaced from campus during disaster. All Hazards Medium 19 High Long-term (not started; this activity will be addressed through the Continuity of Ops. Plan) EM, Auxiliary Services, American Red Cross 5.1.12 Coordinate with other agencies for use of facilities to maintain continuity of campus operations. All Hazards Medium 21 High Ongoing (to be explored further via the Continuity of Ops. Plan and with City) Facilities Services, City of Bozeman MSU ANNEX 5-8 A Goal Objective Project Hazard(s) Mitigated Hi g h -Me d i u m - Lo w S c o r e Nu m e r i c S c o r e Ca m p u s P r i o r i t y Sc h e d u l e / S t a t u s Responsible Department Goal 5: Implement Mitigation Strategies to Enhance Campus Disaster Preparedness Objective 5.1: Implement Projects to Maintain Continuity of Operations 5.1.13 Develop a plan for satellite voice and data services and acquire the services and equipment. All Hazards Medium 21 High Ongoing (modifications to the OBE required, continuing discussion) UIT 5.1.15 Get HAM radio station connected to the emergency power generation grid. All Hazards Medium 21 High Long-term (unknown status; will likely not pursue further) EM 5.1.16 Develop an alternate water source for the campus. All Hazards Medium 19 Medium On Going (Have discussed bringing an on campus well up to standard as a potential alternate water source. No physical measures have yet to be taken and the project is not prioritized. Could end up being a joint endeavor with the city through Continuity of Ops. Plan) Facilities Services 5.1.17 Protect IT systems from all hazards by utilizing cloud-based storage and develop cloud-based phone bank for use during disasters. All Hazards High 23 High Short-term (some cloud- based systems are already in place; expand where funding is available) UIT 5.1.18 Identify critical university assets and develop a Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP). All Hazards High 25 High Short-term (pursue a joint COOP with the community EM 5.1.19 Replacement of various back-up generators; includes Central Heating Plant back-up generator. All Hazards Medium 19 Medium Mid-term Facilities Services 5.1.20 Develop centralized primary electric generators. All Hazards Medium 19 Medium Long-term (generators to be purchased and installed as funding is available) Facilities Services Objective 5.2: Implement Projects to Enhance Evacuation and Emergency Sheltering 5.2.4 Procure and install back-up power generators for designated shelters on campus. All Hazards Medium 13 Medium Ongoing (generators to be purchased and installed as funding is available) Facilities Services 5.2.5 Develop Campus Evacuation Procedure. All Hazards High 21 Medium Mid-term (not started) EM 5.2.6 Procure vehicle for animal transport during evacuation. All Hazards Medium 17 Medium Short-term Animal Resource Center (ARC) Objective 5.3: Conduct Planning/Training Activities to Enhance Preparedness 5.3.1 Update the existing Emergency Response Manual All Hazards Medium 21 High Ongoing (Emergency Ops. Plan is due for update and will include updated information via annexes) EM 5.3.2 Develop University-wide business continuity and post-disaster recovery plan, including providing IT and Telecommunications services. All Hazards Medium 21 Medium Ongoing (Process started in Fall 2018; this project will be a joint effort with local communities) EM, UIT, University Police (UP), and various other Departments MSU ANNEX 5-9 A Goal Objective Project Hazard(s) Mitigated Hi g h -Me d i u m - Lo w S c o r e Nu m e r i c S c o r e Ca m p u s P r i o r i t y Sc h e d u l e / S t a t u s Responsible Department Goal 5: Implement Mitigation Strategies to Enhance Campus Disaster Preparedness Objective 5.3: Conduct Planning/Training Activities to Enhance Preparedness 5.3.4 Appoint and train Campus Emergency Response Teams to respond to disasters on campus. All Hazards Medium 21 High Ongoing (Campus EOC members are trained quarterly via table-top exercises. In Spring 2018, training provided by TEEX. Trainings will continue) EM, various other Departments, City of Bozeman, Gallatin County 5.3.6 Identify hazard risks at each MSU- Bozeman Agricultural Experiment station and determine whether covered by the county HMP. All Hazards Low 13 Medium Long-term (status unknown) Director of Montana Agricultural Experiment Stations 5.3.7 Update and improve the existing Emergency Operations Plan (EOP). All Hazards Medium 21 High Short-term (not started) EM Goal 7: Enhance Campus Awareness on Hazard Mitigation Objective 7.1: Provide Public Outreach on All Hazards 7.1.1 Develop public awareness information campaign for incoming and current students focusing on natural hazards and what students can do to reduce their risk. All Hazards High 25 High Ongoing (not started) Auxiliary Services, Office of Student Success 7.1.2 Develop webpage with a safety forum regarding disasters and what to do to reduce risk. All Hazards High 25 High Short-term (the current EM webpage provides some of this information) Auxiliary Services, EM 7.1.4 Develop and exercise drills to evacuate buildings in case of fire, earthquakes or other disasters. All Hazards Medium 17 Medium Ongoing (the MSU Fire Marshal holds fire drills in buildings throughout the year) EM, SRM 7.1.5 Develop awareness campaign for visitors/short term programs. All Hazards Low 13 High Short-term (not started) University Communications, Conference Services, Auxiliary Services, Residence Life 7.1.7 Develop an Emergency Communications Plan for families of students, staff and faculty. All Hazards Medium 17 High Ongoing (not started; should be prioritized) University Comm., Conf. Services, Auxiliary Services, Residence Life, American Red Cross Goal 8: Mitigate the Terrorism Hazard on Campus Objective 8.1: Implement Techniques to Ensure Safety through Enhanced Security on Campus 8.1.2 Exercise Active Shooter training. Terrorism-Violence Medium 17 High Ongoing (Active Shooter training is completed by UP Officers on at least an annual basis). EM, UP 8.1.3 Identify and procure cameras for campus. Terrorism, Hazardous Material Incidents High 25 High Short-term (not started). UP Goal 9: Enhance Early Warning Systems on Campus Objective 9.1: Implement Techniques to Alert Campus Population of Pending Hazard Events 9.1.1 Install early warning systems such as voice mail, sirens, “Giant Voice”, monitors, website links, alternative websites, and voice-automated notification systems. All Hazards High 23 High Ongoing (implementation & integration with Gallatin County for improved MSU Alert system) EM, University Communications, UP MSU ANNEX 5 -10 A Goal Objective Project Hazard(s) Mitigated Hi g h -Me d i u m - Lo w S c o r e Nu m e r i c S c o r e Ca m p u s P r i o r i t y Sc h e d u l e / S t a t u s Responsible Department Goal 10: Reduce Vulnerability of Campus Buildings from Severe Weather Objective 10.1: Minimize Impacts to Campus Operations from Trees and Landscaping 10.1.3 Install building system utility shutoff valves and drain lines to reduce potential damage from freeze up. Severe Weather Medium 17 Low Ongoing (implement as funding is available and problems are identified) Facilities Services Notes: ARC = Animal Resource Center; COOP = Continuity of Operations Plan; CPDC = Campus Planning, Design & Construction; EM = Emergency Management; MOR = Museum of the Rockies; MUS = Montana University System; SRM = Safety & Risk Management; UIT = University Information Technology; UP = University Police MSU ANNEX 5 -11 A 5.3 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION The stakeholder committee reviewed the projects and assigned a corresponding department responsible for its implementation. Cooperating organizations for project implementation may include campus programs, utility companies, and city or county agencies tha t are capable of, or responsible for, implementing activities and programs. The stakeholder committee identified a schedule for implementation and potential funding sources. The schedule for implementation included several categories including: / Ongoing: P rojects that are part of the university’s emergency management program / Short -term: Projects to be completed within 1 -2 years / Mid -term: Projects to be completed within 3 -4 years / Long -term: Projects to be completed in 5 or more years Table 5-3 presents project implementation details including: progress made since the 2013 MSU -PDM Plan was adopted, planned activities for the next five years, completed and deleted mitigation projects , and potential funding sources. MSU’s Emergency Management Coordinator will be responsible for mitigation project administration. MSU ANNEX 5 -12 A Table 5-3. MSU-Bozeman Mitigation Strategy: Progress Made, Planned Activities, Status and Funding Sources [ = project completed = project deleted = new p Hazard Mitigation Action/Project Status Progress Made Planned Activities Funding Earthquake 1.1.1 Complete Tier 2 evaluation of campus buildings. Ongoing Identified as a Long-Range Building Plan project for 2014-2015 Biennium. $750,000 to complete Tier 2 evaluations of 30 major buildings. Proceed with plan when funded. FEMA Grant, State A&E Earthquake 1.1.2 Develop proposals and secure funding to complete retrofit projects for buildings that qualify for FEMA funding. Ongoing $2.2 million FEMA award for seismic retrofit of Creative Arts Complex Submit additional grants. MSU operating budget, FEMA grant Earthquake 1.1.3 Implement risk reduction measures into future buildings and/or additions on campus. Ongoing Completed for new construction Included in all new construction. MSU operating budget Earthquake 1.1.4 Develop GIS layer of building risk reduction attributes, including utility layers. Not yet implemented No progress to report 2014-2015 project with EM. MSU operating budget Earthquake 1.1.5 Implement building code upgrades on existing concerns identified in Long Range Building Plan, Strategic Plan, LRCDP, Capital Projects Database and FCI Reports as they relate to life safety issues. Ongoing Seismic improvements on three buildings (Creative Arts Complex) and others are underway Seismic improvements to 3 dining halls and others are planned. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget Earthquake 1.1.6 Plan for potential earthquake damage to utilities located in utility tunnels. Partial progress No progress to report. Seismic evaluation of tunnels when funding received. MSU operating budget Earthquake 1.2.1 Protect IT systems from seismic hazard by implementing nonstructural mitigation projects. Partial progress Partial progress - AJM done, Renne partial. Retrofit existing server racks with bracing. MSU operating budget, FEMA grant Earthquake 1.2.2 Develop a campus-wide strategy to implement non-structural mitigation practices. Delete No progress to report. Nothing planned at this time. MSU operating budget Earthquake, Structure Fire 1.3.1 Install seismic shut-off valves on buildings with natural gas. Ongoing; Partially complete Shut-off valves have been installed on some buildings. Continue with project in collaboration with utilities. MSU operating budget, utility company (in-kind) Earthquake, Structure Fire 1.3.2 Develop plans to prevent water damage to voice and data electronic equipment and cabling. Delete No progress to report Get equipment out of basements as per Project 2.1.3. MSU operating budget Earthquake, Structure Fire 1.3.3 Install alternate fire suppression equipment in Telecommunications Rooms around campus. Not yet implemented No progress to report No near-term activities planned. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget Earthquake, Severe Weather 1.3.4 Install Waterbugs in research buildings and other critical locations to detect water breaks and leaks. Not yet implemented New project Facilities with costly equipment and research activities to be prioritized. MSU operating budget Earthquakes, Structure Fire, Hazardous Material Incidents, Terrorism 1.3.5 Install Central Heating Plant back-up fuel storage replacement. Not yet implemented New project Replace propane tank outside of Heating Plant to mitigate explosion potential from natural or human-made hazard. MSU operating budget, FEMA grant MSU ANNEX 5 -13 A Hazard Mitigation Action/Project Status Progress Made Planned Activities Funding Structure Fire, Earthquake 2.1.1 Install sprinklers and alarm/ detection systems for all campus buildings that aren’t currently equipped. Ongoing New construction and renovations projects (2 floors in Leon Johnson Hall and addition to Linfield Hall) received sprinklers. Upgrades in all new construction. Montana University System appropriation Structure Fire, Earthquake 2.1.2 Consider alternate fire suppression for central library and computer facilities. Complete FM-200 in AJM Halon replacement in Renne to be investigated. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget Structure Fire, Earthquake 2.1.3 Consider relocating critical services, such as computer facilities, from building basements. Partial progress No progress to report Investigate new or off-site data center locations. To be addressed through the Continuity of Operations process. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 3.1.1 Develop protocol for digital imaging of all university records. Ongoing; partial progress Hired records clerk. Develop implementation plan for converting to digital. MSU operating budget All Hazards 3.1.2 Establish off-site storage for tape backup of IT and Telecommunications systems. Complete Initial off-site backup storage of production ERP data complete. Offsite storage to be part of any future backup initiatives. MSU operating budget All Hazards 3.1.3 Implement digital archiving by securing necessary equipment. Complete Electronic Document Management (EDMW) initiative beginning. Investigate options in conjunction with EDMW initiative. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 3.1.4 Establish off-site backup server for Banner system. Not yet implemented No progress to report Investigate options (co-location facility or other MSU campus) Montana University System appropriation All Hazards 3.2.1 Establish policy for management of research documentation. Complete No progress to report Newly forming Center for Research computing and Library staff to investigate. MSU operating budget All Hazards 4.1.1 Establish secure and climate-controlled storage of important documents and artwork. Partial progress No progress to report. Museum of the Rockies is fundraising for this purpose. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 4.1.2 Determine proper storage of Museum holdings and academic assets. Partially complete Museum of the Rockies has completed this. Partially progress with Academic assets. Departments working on this. MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.1.1 Establish redundant system and physical protection for all utilities. Ongoing; partial progress Primary electrical protection underway. Backup heating fuel project being assessed. Centralized emergency generator being assessed. Construct new utilities feed from Northwestern Energy in secondary location to provide system redundancy. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.1.2 Inventory and prioritize water and sewer lines that need to be upgraded. Complete Master plan developed that prioritized water and sewer upgrades. Implementation of the plan. MSU operating budget, City of Bozeman (in-kind) All Hazards 5.1.4 Establish redundant communication systems as needed for existing buildings, new construction and remodel projects. Partial progress Redundant fiber plant and backup ISP in progress (6/13). Redundant data network core underway. Redundant paths and equipment being implemented. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget MSU ANNEX 5 -14 A Hazard Mitigation Action/Project Status Progress Made Planned Activities Funding All Hazards 5.1.5 Establish off-site computing and telecommunications resources for disaster recovery. Not yet implemented No progress to report Investigate options (co-location facility or other MSU campus) Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.1.6 Establish arrangements with other universities to share computing and telecommunications resources during disasters. Not yet implemented No progress to report Initial discussions with MSU campuses and U of M underway. MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.1.7 Prioritize buildings for emergency generators and install pigtail connections for mobile generator. Complete All essential buildings have back-up generators or connections. N/A MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.1.8 Obtain at least three mobile generators for campus critical facilities. Delete No progress to report Implement as funding secured. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.1.10 Establish a policy for housing students displaced from campus during disaster. Partial progress No progress to report EM will coordinate with partners to establish policy. MSU operating budget, Red Cross (in- kind) All Hazards 5.1.11 Evaluate campus buildings for suitability as emergency shelters. Complete SUB identified as a potential shelter. Fieldhouse identifies as a potential Point of Dispensing (POD). Activities will be planned in accordance with Emergency Response Plan. MSU operating budget, Red Cross (in- kind) All Hazards 5.1.12 Coordinate with other agencies for use of facilities to maintain continuity of campus operations. Not yet implemented Will be addressed in Emergency Response Plan which is currently underway. Activities will be planned in accordance with Emergency Response Plan. MSU operating budget, City of Bozeman/Gallatin County (in-kind) All Hazards 5.1.13 Develop a plan for satellite voice and data services and acquire the services and equipment. Not yet implemented No progress to report No near-term activities planned. Will re- evaluate viability/need for this. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.1.14 Create a GIS layer of campus utilities and tie into City system Delete No progress to report Redundant with Project 1.1.4 MSU operating budget, City of Bozeman (in-kind) All Hazards 5.1.15 Get HAM radio station connected to the emergency power generation grid. Not yet implemented No progress to report Assess whether HAM station is on back- up. If not, determine how connections will be made. MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.1.16 Develop an alternate water source for the campus. Not yet implemented No progress to report Developing plan with City of Bozeman. Consultant to evaluate University as district for impact fees. MSU operating budget, City of Bozeman All Hazards 5.1.17 Protect IT systems from all hazards by utilizing cloud-based storage; develop cloud- based phone bank for use during disasters. Partial progress New project. Some cloud-based systems are already in place; expand where funding is available. Investigate use of a virtual phone bank that could be utilized anywhere during a disaster. Will reduce overloading of phone lines. MSU operating budget. All Hazards 5.1.18 Identify critical university assets and develop a Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP). Not yet implemented New project. MSU will pursue a joint COOP with the community (City of Bozeman/Gallatin Co.) MSU operating budget, City of Bozeman, Gallatin Co. MSU ANNEX 5 -15 A Hazard Mitigation Action/Project Status Progress Made Planned Activities Funding All Hazards 5.1.19 Replacement of various back-up generators; includes Central Heating Plant back-up generator. Not yet implemented New project. Various back-up generators are in need of replacement due to age and potential failure issues. MSU operating budget, FEMA grant All Hazards 5.1.20 Develop centralized primary electric generators. Not yet implemented New project. Construct bank of electrical generators at a centralized location that is disaster resilient (DR). MSU operating budget, FEMA grant All Hazards 5.2.3 Install signage marking evacuation routes from campus buildings. Complete Signage is provided in buildings depicting fire escape routes. Continue to include with renovations and new projects. MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.2.4 Procure and install back-up power generators for designated shelters on campus. Not yet implemented No progress to report Implement when funded. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.2.5 Develop Campus Evacuation Procedure. Not yet implemented New project. Explore how to safely evacuate individuals from campus when deemed necessary. Identify evacuation routes, transportation needs, sheltering needs. MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.2.6 Procure vehicle for animal transport during evacuation. Not yet implemented New project. Procure vehicle to move non-human primates in the event of a campus evacuation and/or an evacuation of the Animal Resource Center (ARC) MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.3.1 Update the existing Emergency Response Manual Partial progress An EM position was approved 3/2013. Contractor selected. Contractor and committee updating plan. EM position to be filled 12/2013. Contractor to complete plan by spring 2014 MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.3.2 Develop University-wide business continuity and post-disaster recovery plan, including providing IT and Telecommunications services. Partial progress Incomplete partial plan - in need of refinement. Recently formed EMTF includes Business Continuity Committee ramping up summer 2013. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.3.3 Develop University-wide post-disaster recovery plan. Delete This project has been combined with Project 5.3.2 None Montana University System (MUS) appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.3.4 Appoint and train Campus Emergency Response Teams to respond to disasters on campus. Partial progress An Emergency response Coordinator position was approved 3/2013. Emergency response planning committee underway EM position to be filled 12/2013. EM position will determine implementation. MSU operating budget, Gallatin County (in-kind) All Hazards 5.3.5 Conduct training exercises on a regular basis. Delete N/A Redundant with project 7.1.4 N/A All Hazards 5.3.6 Identify hazard risks at each MSU- Bozeman Agricultural Experiment station and determine whether covered by county HMP. Not yet implemented No progress to report No planned activities. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget All Hazards 5.3.7 Develop Utilities Continuity Plan. Delete N/A This project is redundant with Project 5.3.2. MSU operating budget MSU ANNEX 5 -16 A Hazard Mitigation Action/Project Status Progress Made Planned Activities Funding All Hazards 5.3.8 Update and improve the existing Emergency Operations Plan (EOP). Not yet implemented New project. EOP needs to be updated with annex- specific instructions to address all hazards. MUS appropriation, MSU operating budget Hazardous Material Incidents 6.1.1 Maintain detailed inventory/database and centralized data management of hazardous chemicals on campus and create GIS layer. Complete The data inventory system is implemented and went live in Fall 2018. N/A MSU operating budget Hazardous Material Incidents 6.1.2 Establish protection/security of fuel storage facility. Complete Fuel storage facility has been fenced. N/A MSU operating budget Hazardous Material Incidents 6.1.3 Identify specific non-structural mitigation projects for hazardous materials. Complete Centralized all large quantity academic use chemicals into approved chemical storage facility. Facilities maintenance operations centralized chemicals in new storage facility in isolated location. N/A MSU operating budget All Hazards 7.1.1 Develop public awareness information campaign for incoming and current students focusing on natural hazards and what students can do to reduce their own risk. Ongoing No progress to report for Student Success. Student Success has no activities planned for implementation. MSU operating budget All Hazards 7.1.2 Develop webpage with a safety forum regarding disasters and what to do to reduce risk. Not yet implemented No progress to report Done in consultation with new Emergency Management coordinator. MSU operating budget All Hazards 7.1.4 Develop and exercise drills to evacuate buildings in case of fire, earthquakes or other disasters. Ongoing Ongoing fire and evacuation drills. Participate in Rocky Mountain Shake- out. MSU operating budget, Gallatin County (in-kind) All Hazards 7.1.5 Develop awareness campaign for visitors/short term programs. Not yet implemented No progress to report Review what this would entail. MSU operating budget All Hazards 7.1.6 Maintain Emergency Disaster and Recovery Instructions in the MSU-Bozeman Telephone Directory. Delete MSU no longer produces a telephone directory. Development of Emergency Disaster and Recovery Instruction. MSU operating budget All Hazards 7.1.7 Develop an Emergency Communication Plan for families of students, staff and faculty. Not yet implemented Progress has been made in outlining what to communicate and how. Hiring of Emergency Management coordinator and discussions of emergency framework. MSU operating budget Terrorism-Violence 8.1.1 Install enhanced building security (card access, cameras, blue light emergency telephone). Complete Targeted areas completed (blue light system installed throughout campus, card access for all residence halls). N/A Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget Terrorism-Violence 8.1.2 Exercise Active Shooter training. Ongoing University Police conducted an Active Shooter training event in August 2018. Coordinate training with EM and Campus Police. MSU operating budget Terrorism, Hazardous Material Incidents 8.1.3 Identify and procure cameras for campus. Not yet implemented New project Would allow additional surveillance of campus during disasters and/or acts of terrorism. MSU operating budget, FEMA grant MSU ANNEX 5 -17 A Hazard Mitigation Action/Project Status Progress Made Planned Activities Funding All Hazards 9.1.1 Install early warning systems such voice mail, sirens, website links, alternative websites, and voice automated notification systems. Ongoing; partial progress Partial Progress; MSU Alert Cell phone Text Messaging, email, website, social media in place as of June 2013. Continued refinement of current electronic communications and training. Montana University System appropriation, MSU operating budget Severe Summer & Winter Weather 10.1.1 Conduct landscape inventory to evaluate potential vulnerabilities. Complete; update as needed Landscape inventory complete via GIS. Continue to update as needed as campus changes. MSU operating budget Severe Summer & Winter Weather 10.1.2 Develop standards for tree/landscape maintenance. Complete Tree/landscape maintenance standards have been developed. N/A MSU operating budget Severe Weather 10.1.3 Install building system utility shutoff valves and drain lines to reduce potential damage from freeze up. Partially Complete Some buildings completed in accordance with implementation plan. Continue to implement the plan. MSU operating budget MSU ANNEX 5 -18 A 5.4 POTENTIAL FUNDING SOURCES Funding for mitigation projects listed in this plan may be available from federal and state programs, appropriations from the university system, in-kind services from local government and non-profit organizations, and/or businesses which hire MSU-Bozeman graduates, alumni organizations and utility companies . Some programs may require MSU to apply through Montana DES, Montana A&E or City of Bozeman/Gallatin County for funding. Potential funding sources are summarized below. FEMA, Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP). The HMGP provides grants to States, Indian Tribes, local governments, and private non -profit organizations to implement long -term hazard mitigation measures after a major disaster declaration. The purpose of the HMGP is to reduce the loss of life and prope rty due to natural disasters and to enable mitigation measures to be implemented during the immediate recovery from a disaster. The HMGP is authorized under Section 404 of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act. HMGP provides 7 5/25 cost -share funding. FEMA, Pre-Disaster Mitigation Competitive (PDMC) Grant Program. The PDM program provides funds to states, territories, and local governments, communities, and universities for hazard mitigation planning and the implementation of mitigation projects prior to a disaster event. Funding these plans and projects reduces overall risks to the population and structures, while also reducing reliance on funding from actual disaster declarations. PDMC grants are awarded on a competitive basi s and without reference to state allocations, quotas, or other formula -based allocation of funds. PDMC provides 75/25 cost -share funding. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Enhances the ability of states, and local jurisdictions, and other regional authorities in the preparation, prevention, and response to terrorist attacks and other disasters, by distributing grant funds. Localities can use grants for planning, equipment, training and exercise needs. These grants include but are not limited to areas o f Critical Infrastructure Protection Equipment and Training for First Responders, and Homeland Security Grants. Hazardous Materials Emergency Preparedness Grants. Grant funds will be passed through to local emergency management offices and HazMat teams h aving functional and active LEPC groups. 5.5 LEGAL FRAMEWORK Several federal, state and local regulations, policies and plans form the legal framework available to implement the MSU-Bozeman hazard mitigation goals and projects. Federal / Federal Civil Defense Act of 1950 / Public Law 96 -342, The Improved Civil Defense Act of 1980 / Public Law 91 -606, Disaster Relief Act / Public Law 93 -288, The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief Act of 1974 / Presidential Executive Order 11988, Floodplain Management / Presidential Executive Order 11990, Protection of Wetlands MSU ANNEX 5 -19 A State of Montana / Montana Code Annotated, Title 10, Chapter 3, Disaster and Emergency Services / Montana Code Annotated, Title 76, Chapter 5, Flood Plain and Floodway Management / Montana Code Annotated, Title 50, Chapte r 60, Building Construction Standards / Montana Code Annotated, Title 76, Chapter 2, Planning and Zoning Gallatin County / Gallatin County Hazard Mitigation Plan / Gallatin County Municipal Code City of Bozeman / City of Bozeman Municipal Code MSU-Bozeman / Strategic Plan / Long Range Building Plan / Capital Equipment Plan / Emergency Response Plan / MSU-Bozeman Safety Policy / Pandemic Plan / Hazard Communication Program –OSHA / Job Descriptions for Safety Committee members 5.6 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT MSU-Bozeman’s capabilities to implement mitigation projects include planners, engineers, scientists, emergency managers, GIS personnel, and financial and administrative professionals. Available resources and expertise within the City of Bozeman, Gallatin County and the State of Montana enhance MSU’s capabilities for resiliency. These resources collectively have the responsibility to maintain MSU-Bozeman as a disaster-resistant university. The goals and objectives used to mitigate natural and technological hazards builds on the campus’ existing capabilities. 5.6.1 MSU-BOZEMAN MSU’s Emergency Manager will provide overall coordination of hazard mitigation on campus. In-house capabilities to implement mitigation projects are generally within the offices of Safety and Risk Management and Facilities Services, as described below. MSU ANNEX 5 -20 A 5.6.2 UNIVERSITY SERVICES University Services maintains MSU’s academic, research, housing and auxiliary facilities, which house classrooms, auditoriums, laboratories, student residences, athletic events venues, food service operations, etc. University Services consists of the following service management areas: / Environmental Services: Landscape, Grounds & Irrigation, Custodial, Solid Waste Disposal, Recycling / Engineering & Utilities: Utility Infrastructure, Heat Plant Operations Energy Management, Engineering Services / Business Management: Budget & Accounting, Information Systems, Real Estate / General Operations: Work Control, Preventive Maintenance, Stores/Purchasing, Facilities Safety, Mail Services / Campus Maintenance: Maintenance Trades University Services functions that pertain to emergency response and pre-disaster mitigation include: / Landscape and grounds maintenance / Repair, maintenance and renovation of campus facilities / Repair, maintenance and upgrades of campus utilities / Central heating plant operations / Preventive maintenance / Excavation and waste management 5.6.3 CAMPUS PLANNING, DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION Campus Planning, Design & Construction (CPDC) manages the planning, design and construction efforts for new structures, renovations, major maintenance projects and infrastructure projects. CPDC includes architectural services, campus master planning, space management, capital construction planning, and historic preservation. CPDC functions that pertain to emergency response and pre -disaster mitigation include: / Managing structural analysis and design / Campus ADA planning / Building plans records and archives / Liaison with the external design community, contractors and other state agencies 5.6.4 EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT The Office of Emergency Management, within the University Police Department, is charged with the following: / Coordinate and implement plans for emergency preparedness, disaster mitigation, emergency response, recovery, and continuity of o perations efforts for the MSU-Bozeman campus. / Plan, coordinate and conduct emergency management exercises on an annual basis, including at least one live exercise and one tabletop exercise each year. MSU ANNEX 5 -21 A / Conduct training in emergency management, planning and preparedness for key University administrators and departmental directors at the University and across all campuses in the MSU system. / Assist university departments with identifying key indicators that influence potential business impacts and help identify processes and procedures to improve response plans and business resilience. / Research opportunities and apply for federal funding for emergency management related needs and administer and report on the progress of such grants. 5.6.5 MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ADMINISTRATION, ARCHITECTURE AND ENGINEERING DIVISION The Montana Department of Administration, Architecture and Engineering Division (A&E) serves and assists the Montana University System in the design and construction of facilities, repairs and alterations of existing facilities, and planning for their needs. The State of Montana has adopted High Performance Design Standards for the construction, renovation, and maintenance of public buildings in the state. These standards have been developed to improve the capac ity of the state to design, build, and operate high- performance and resilient buildings. The resiliency factor includes design to mitigate the effect of natural hazards and man-made disasters. The A&E Division functions in partnership with the universities to procure and execute design and construction projects related to state owned facilities. 5.6.6 GALLATIN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, ALL HAZARDS ALL DISCIPLINE (AHAD) GROUP The mission of the Gallatin County All Hazards All Discipline (AHAD) group is to provide resources and guidance to the community through education, coordination and assistance in disaster response planning, as well as to assure public health and safety. They do not function in actual emergency situations, but attempt to identify and ca talogue potential hazards, identify available resources, and mitigate hazards when feasible. The AHAD consists of representatives from businesses, local government, emergency responders and citizen groups located in the City of Bozeman and Gallatin County. Bi-monthly meetings are held. MSU-Bozeman is an active participant in the County AHAD group. The Emergency Management Coordinator and Police Dept. Captain regularly attend AHAD meetings and are active members. 5.6.7 GALLATIN COUNTY PUBLIC HEALTH MSU-Bozeman pa rticipates in and hosts various planning sessions and tabletop exercises with Gallatin County Public Health office. The result of the cooperation was the formation of a county Unified Health Command with MSU Health Services as one leg of a triangular organization including the Public Health Office and the Department of Public Health and Human Services. MSU ANNEX 6-1 A 6.0 PLAN MAINTENANCE PROCEDURES The Plan maintenance section of this document details the forma l process that will ensure that the MSU- Bozeman Annex remains an active and relevant document. The maintenance process includes a schedule for monitoring and evaluating the Annex and producing a revision every five years. This section describes how MSU -Bozeman will integrate public participation throughout the maintenance process. Also included in this section is an explanation of how MSU-Bozeman intends to incorporate the mitigation strategies outlined in this Annex into existing planning mechanisms and po licies. 6.1 MONITORING, EVALUATING, AND UPDATING THE PLAN 6.1.1 PROCESS USED PREVIOUSLY The MSU-Bozeman PDM Plan was to be reviewed every two years, or as deemed necessary by knowledge of new hazards, vulnerabilities, or other pertinent reasons. The purpose of the review was to determine whether a Plan update was needed prior to the scheduled five-year update, identify new mitigation projects, and/or evaluate the effectiveness of existing policies relating to mitigation. No new hazards or vulnerabilities came up since the MSU-Bozeman PDM Plan was adopted in 2007, no new mitigation projects were deemed necessary, and current policies did not need revision. As such, the MSU-Bozeman PDM Plan was not reviewed or evaluated during the interim, with one exception. The PDM P lan was reviewed in response to a grant application submitted to FEMA in 2010 for a seismic retrofit of the Creative Arts Complex. The Plan review was necessary at that time to ensure the grant application was aligned with a mitigation action described in the Plan. When Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) planning funds became available in 2011 due to a Presidential flood disaster (DR -1996), MSU-Bozeman decided to request funding to update their Plan. A HMGP planning grant application was prepared, submitted and subsequently awarded for the plan update their PDM Plan. A contractor was hired to facilitate with the planning process over an 18 -month period. The update process involved a kick-off meeting, planning forums, and a public meeting where the Advisory Committee and community stakeholders exchanged ideas on hazard vulnerability and mitigation actions. The draft plan was available for public review on the project website and comments received were integrated into a revised draft document. The revised draft was posted on the project website for final comment and submitted to the Montana State Hazard Mitigation Officer and FEMA for acceptance. Additional comments were addressed in a final version of the Plan that was adopted by the President of Montana State University. 6.1.2 FUTURE PLANNING PROCESS The MSU-Bozeman PDM Advisory Committee will continue to meet on an as -needed basis to monitor and evaluate the Annex and to determine whether an update is needed sooner than five years. The Committee will discuss progress made towards implementing the high priority mitigation actions and determine whether grants should be prepared to secure mitigation project funding. MSU ANNEX 6-2 A The MSU Emergency Management Coordinator will be responsible for the next five -year Annex update. One year prior to the expiration of the current plan, a grant application will be prepared to secure funding through FEMA’s HMGP or PDM grant programs. If FEMA funding is unavailable, MSU -Bozeman will update the Annex in-house using university resource s. Annex development, review, and adoption will be similar to the process used for the 2018 PDM Plan update. 6.2 IMPLEMENTATION THROUGH EXISTING PROGRAMS MSU-Bozeman will have the opportunity to implement hazard mitigation projects through existing programs and policies. Campus stakeholders will work with the MSU -Bozeman PDM Advisory Committee to ensure hazard mitigation projects are consistent with planning goals and integrate them, where appropriate. The university currently uses a Strategic Plan and Long-Range Building Plan to guide and control campus development and maintenance of existing facilities. The university will require that hazards be addressed in these plans; specifically, that life and property be protected from natural disasters and man-caused hazards. The PDM Advisory Committee will conduct periodic reviews of campus plans and policies to ensure that hazard mitigation is being incorporated where appropriate. Campus capital improvements will also contribute to the goals in the Annex. The PDM Advisory Committee will work with capital improvement planners to ensure that high-hazard areas are being considered for low risk uses. Meetings of the MSU-Bozeman PDM Advisory Committee will provide an opportunity to report back on the progress made on the integration of mitigation planning elements into campus planning documents and procedures. 6.3 CONTINUED PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT MSU-Bozeman is dedicated to involving the campus population and community stakeholders in review and update of the HMP Annex. The campus population and stakeholders will have many opportunities to provide feedback. The Annex will be available on the campus website and a hard copy will available at the library. The MSU Emergency Management Coordinator will be responsible for keeping track of comments on the Annex and implementing comments where possible. Future comments on the MSU-Bozeman HMP Annex should be addressed to: Emergency Management Coordinator Montana State University P.O. Box 170510 Bozeman, MT 59717-0510 A public meeting will be held at the start of the five -year update to provide the campus population and community stakeholders a forum through which they can express ideas and opinions about the Annex. The MSU Emergency Management Coordinator will be responsible for using campus resources to publicize the public meeting and maintain public involvement via the campus newspaper and website. APPENDIX A APPENDIX A REFERENCES APPENDIX A AppArmor, 2019. The Unified mass Notification System. Accessed Website: https://unifiednotifications.apparmor.com . April 2019. Avalanches.org, 2018. “U.S. Avalanche Accident Reports.” Retrieved from: avalanche.org, October 2018, URL: http://www.avalanche.org/accidents.php Berkeley Lab. 2004. 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Accessed Website: https://www.museumoftherockies.org/uploads/2017_Museum_of_the_Rockies_Annual_Report_.pdf MSU. 201 0. Montana State University, Economic Impact Report, December 2010. 36 p. MSU. 2018a. Montana State University website, Office of Planning & Analysis, Quick F acts: 2017-2018. http://www.montana.edu/opa/facts/quick.html#Programs MSU. 2018b. Montana State University website, Campus Planning, Design & Construction, Quick Facts February 2017. http://www.montana.edu/pdc/about/quick -facts.html MSU. 2018c. Montana State University website, Office of Planning & Analysis, Quick Facts: 2017 -2018. http://www.montana.edu/opa/facts/quick.html#Full MSU. 2018d . Montana State University website, Residence Life & Culinary Services: 2017-2018. https://www.montana.edu/reslife/halls/ MSU. 2018e. Montana State University website, Office of Planning & Analysis, Quick Facts: 2017 -2018. http://www.montana.edu/opa/facts/quick.html#Research MSU. 2018f. Montana State University website, Office of Planning & Analysis, 2018. http://www.montana.edu/university -services/fs/index.html MSU. 2018g. Montana State University website. MSU Library, About Us – Statistical Profile FY 2018. http:// www.lib.montana.edu/about/statprofile.html MSU. 2018h. Montana State University – Bozeman, Engineering Guidelines. Revision 08/20/2018. URL: http://www.montana.edu/university -services/engineeringutilities/documents/MSU - Bozeman%20Engineering%20Guidelines%20 -%208.20.18.pdf MUS. 2018. Montana University System website, Data and Reports, 2017. https://mus.edu/data/dataindex.asp . NACUBO. 2008. Results of the National Campus Safety and Security Projec t. 2008. NAMI. 2008. Mental Health by the Numbers. National Alliance on Mental Illness. URL: https://www.nami.org/learn -more/mental -health-by-the-numbers National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). 2013. Storm Events Database. URL: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ APPENDIX A National Climatic Data Center, 2017. “Local Storm Reports.” National Centers for Environmental Information, retrieved September 2018, fro m http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html National Inventory of Dams, 2017. “The National Inventory of Dams (NID).” US Army Corps of Engineers, Retrieved December 2017 from: http://nid.usace.army.mil/cm_apex/f?p=838:7:0::NO NCES. 2018. National Center for Education Statistics “Fast Facts.” Accessed website: https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=84 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2018. “Historic Palmer Drought Indices,” National Centers for Environmental Information, retrieved from: www.ncdc.noaa.gov , February 2018, URL: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp -and-precip/drought/historical -palmers/psi/190001 -201812 National Park Service, 2018. National Register of Historic Places, Retrieved from: www.nps.gov , October 2018, URL: https://www.nps.gov/subjects/nationalregister/index.htm National Transportation Safety Board, 2017. “Aviation Accident Database and Synopses.” Retrieved from: ntsb.gov, Sept. 2018, URL: https://www.ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/index.aspx Natural Resources Conservation Service – National Water & Climate Center, 2017. Climate Data, Retrieved from: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/climate/index.html , February 2018. National Weath er Service . 2013. Warning and Advisory Criteria. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. URL: http://www.weather.gov/ NFPA. 2017 . Structure Fires in Dormitories, Fraternities, Sororities and Barracks. Augus t 2017. Accessed website:: https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News -and-Research/Fire-statistics -and-reports/Building-and- life -safety/osdorms.pdf NISVS, 2010. “National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey.” Retrieved from: cdc.gov , May 2018, URL: https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/pdf/nisvs_report2010 -a.pdf Sanderson Stewart, 2014. “Gallatin Triangle Planning Study,” Recommendations for Regional Planning Cooperation for Gallatin County, City of Belgrade, and City of Bozeman, September 17, 2014. Sivakumar, M and Wilhite, D., 2002. “Drought preparedness and drought management.” Retrieved from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/26 7362571_Drought_preparedness_and_drought_management , May 2018. US Census, 2018a. “US Census Bureau, Quick Facts, Gallatin County, Montana ” Retrieved from: www.census.gov, May 2019 , URL : https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/gallatincountymontana US Census, 2018b. “Selected Housing Characteristics.” 2013-2017 American Community Survey, 5 -Year Estimates, Retrieved from factfinder.census.gov, September 2018, URL: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_17_5YR_DP04&pr odType=table APPENDIX A USDA, 2012. Census of Agriculture, Gallatin County, Montana, Retrieved from: www.nass.usda.gov , September 2018, URL: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2012/Online_Resources/County_Profiles/Montana/cp30 031.pdf USDA, 2018. “Disaster Design ation Information: State and County Level Records of Disaster Designation Information Made by the US Secretary of Agriculture.” Retrieved May 2018, from https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs -and-services/disaster -assistance-program/disaster -designation - information/index US DHS. 2008. “Active Shooter: How to Respond.” Published by U.S. Department of Homeland Security, October 2008. US Drought Monitor, 201 9 . “Map Archive.” Retrieved from: https://droughtmonitor.un l.edu/, May 2019. US Forest Service, 2018. National Avalanche Center, Retrieved from: www.avalanche.org , December 2018. US Geological Survey, 2005. “Fact Sheet 2005-3024, Steam Explosions, Earthquakes, and Volcanic Eruptions – What’s in Yellowstone’s Future?” US Geological Survey, 1976. “The Hebgen Lake, Montana Earthquake of August 17, 1959.” Geological Survey, US Department of the Interior National Park Service, US Department of the Interior Coast and Geodetic Survey, US Department of Commerce, Forest Service, US Department of Agriculture, Retrieved from: https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/0435/report.pdf , October 2018. US Geological Survey, 2017. earthquake.usgs.gov, Retrieved October 2018, URL: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ Vanderbilt University. 2015. “The Cost of Federal Regulatory Compliance in Higher Education: A Multi - Institutional Stud y.” An assessment of federal regulatory compliance costs at 13 institutions in FY 2013 - 2014. Published October 2015. Western Regional Climate Center, 2017. “Cooperative Climatological Data Summaries.” Retrieved from wrcc.dri.edu , September 2017, URL: https://wrcc.dri.edu/Climate/west_coop_summaries.php Wong et al., 2005. “Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for the State of Montana.” Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology, Special Publication 117. APPENDIX B APPENDIX B LIST OF PROJECT STAKEHOLDERS Stakeholder participation Invitation letters Public meeting announcements (community letters & e- mail invitations) Legal notice confirmation Plan comment and feedback solicitation (VIA e-mail & GCEM webpage) APPENDIX B List of Project Stakeholders for the 2018 Gallatin County HMP Update Name Organization Participation Charles Locke American Medical Response, Administration Supervisor Meetings Andy Egstad American Medical Response, Project Manager Susan Spanjol American Red Cross of Montana, Co -Chair Meetings Linda Skelton Amsterdam School, District Clerk Dan Sheil Big Sky Fire Department Meeting Stephen Pruiett Big Sky Fire Department, Captain Meeting Seth Barker Big Sky Fire Department, Captain Meetings William Farhat Big Sky Fire Department, Fire Chief Meeting Kristin Drain Big Sky Resort Tax District Meeting Michael Scholz Big Sky Resort Tax District Meeting Mike Unruh Big Sky Resort, Mountain Operations Manager Meeting Greg Megaard Bozeman Fire, Deputy Fire Chief Meetings Mike Maltaverne Bozeman Fire, Deputy Fire Chief Meetings Rich McLane Bozeman Police, Deputy Police Chief (retired) Jim Veltkamp Bozeman Police, Patrol Captain Meeting Steve Crawford Bozeman Police, Police Chief Meeting Cory Klumb Bozeman Police, Police Detective Captain Meeting Mike Koehnke Broadwater County Disaster and Emergency Services, Coordinator Meeting Ed Shindoll Broadwater County Rural Fire Department, Fire Chief Meeting Wynn Meehan Broadwater County Sheriff’s Office, Sheriff Meeting Brandon Harris Broadwater County Sheriff’s Office, Undersheriff Meeting Ron Lindroth Central Valley Fire District, Chief Meetings Jane Arntzen Schumacher Child Care Connections Meeting Jason Karp City of Belgrade, Planning Meeting Cyndy Andrus City of Bozeman, Mayor Craig Woolard City of Bozeman, Public Works Meeting Natalie Meyer City of Bozeman, Sustainability Manager Meeting Eric Campbell City of Bozeman, Water Treatment Plan Superintendent Meeting Crystal Turner City of Three Forks, City Clerk Denny Nelson City of Three Forks, City Council Meeting Kelly Smith City of Three Forks, City Treasurer APPENDIX B Name Organization Participation Steven Hamilton City of Three Forks, Mayor Meeting Scott Newell City of West Yellowstone, Police Chief Meeting Buck Taylor Community Health Partners, Director of Community Development and Administration Meeting Fred Jones Custer Gallatin National Forest, District Fire Management Officer Meeting Jessianne Wright Explore Big Sky, Reporter Meetings Bryan Connelley Fire Out Consulting, Owner Meeting Betty Kalakay Gallatin City -County Health Department, Emergency Response Coordinator Meetings Matt Kelley Gallatin City -County Health Department, Health Officer Mary Hendrix Gallatin Conservation District, District Administrator Meeting Steve White Gallatin County Commission, Chairman Sarah Gracey Gallatin County Commission, Clerk Don Seifert Gallatin County Commission, Commissioner Joe Skinner Gallatin County Commission, Commissioner Patrick Lonergan Gallatin County Emergency Management, Director Meetings, Data, Document Review Don Wilson Gallatin County Search and Rescue, HAM Radio Operator Meeting Kelly Brandon Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office Mike Gavagan Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office, Deputy Sheriff Meeting Don Peterson Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office, Detective Jake Wagner Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office, Patrol Brandon Kelly Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office, Sergeant Meeting Jim Anderson Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office, Sergeant Dan McDonough Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office, Sheriff’s Deputy Meeting Dan Springer Gallatin County Sherriff’s Office, Undersheriff Meeting Bill Brownell Gallatin County, Bridge and Road Superintendent Jim Doar Gallatin County, County Administrator Meeting Jeremy Kopp Gallatin County, Detective Sergeant Meeting Frank Dougher Gallatin County, GIS Supervisor Data Jenny Connelley Gallatin County, GIS Technician Data Chris Scott Gallatin County, Planner Meeting Sean O’Callaghan Gallatin County, Planning Director and Floodplain Administer Meetings APPENDIX B Name Organization Participation Jeremiah Hillier Gallatin Gateway Rural Fire, Captain Tammy Swinney Gallatin Local Water Quality District, District Manager Doug Chabot Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center, Director Megan Syner Great Falls National Weather Service, Meteorologist Meeting Arin Peters Great Falls National Weather Service, Senior Service Hydrologist Meeting Shane Grube Hebgen Basin Rural Fire District, Chief Meetings Jason Brey Hebgen Lake Ranger District, District Ranger Meetings Mary Martin HOPE Animal-Assisted Crisis Response Meeting Dave Hamilton Lewis and Clark County Fire, Assistant Fire Chief Audrey Ulmen Manhattan Fire, Secretary and Captain/Medical Officer Meeting Stephene Kamerman Mental Health Local Advisory Council, Assistant Kerri Strasheim Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, Regional Manager Meeting Craig Campbell Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, Unit Manager Meetings Paul McCauley Montana Department of Transportati on Meeting Kyle DeMars Montana Department of Transportation, Maintenance Chief Bob Fry Montana Disaster and Emergency Services, Field Officer Meetings James Jessop Montana Disaster and Emergency Services, Field Officer Meetings Nadene Wadsworth Montana Disaster and Emergency Services, State Hazard Mitigation Officer Meeting, Document Review Sam Sheppard Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Supervisor (retired) Mark Wilfore Montana Highway Patrol, Captain Glen Barcus Montana Highway Patrol, Sergeant Pat McCarthy Montana Highway Patrol, Sergeant Pat McLaughlin Montana Highway Patrol, Sergeant Steven Doner Montana State University Police, Captain Meeting Ryan Brickman Montana State University, Chemical Safety Officer Meeting Hayley Tuggle Montana State University, Emergency Management Coordinator Meetings, Data Dominique Woodham Montana State University, MSU Extension Natural Resource Agent Meeting APPENDIX B Name Organization Participation Randy Stephens Montana State University, University Architect Meeting Madison Boone Montana State University, Program Director Institute on Ecosystems Meeting Christopher Mahony Natural Resource Conservation Service, District Conservationist Meetings Justin Meissner Natural Resource Conservation Service, District Conservationist Meeting Tyler Martindale Natural Resources Conservation Service, Area Engineer Meeting Kyle Ecker Northwestern Energy, Supervisor of Operations Planning Keith Bast Phillips 66 Yellowstone Pipeline Meeting Jeff Myers REACH Air Medical Services, Flight Nurse and Medical Crew Lead Meeting Linda Racicot Red Cross Meeting Jessica Haas Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Ecologist Meetings, Data Dustin Tetrault Ruby Valley Hospital, Paramedic Meeting Scott Sanders Stockman Bank, Senior Vice President Christina Powell The Help Center, Co -Director Meeting Becky Arbuckle Three Forks Area Ambulance, Crew Supervisor Justin Mitchell Three Forks resident Jessica Puckett Three Rivers Medical Clinic, Doctor Meeting Dennis Hengel Town of Manhattan, Chief of Police Meeting Steve Gonzales Town of Manhattan, City Council Meeting Pam Humphrey Town of Manhattan, Clerk/Treasurer Meeting Jeff McAllister Town of Manhattan, Public Works Meeting Steven Kurk Town of Manhattan, Public Works Meeting Dan Sabolsky Town of West Yellowstone, Town Manager Meetings Marianne Baumberger US Forest Service, Bozeman and Hebgen Lake Ranger Districts Meeting Corey Lewellen US Forest Service, District Ranger Meetings Don Helmbrecht US Forest Service, Fire Analyst Meeting Todd Erdody US Forest Service, Fire Ecologist Meetings, Data Marysue Costello West Yellowstone Chamber of Commerce, Executive Director Meeting Keith Aune Three Forks Fire, Chief Meetings Pete Stock Willow Creek Rural Fire Department, Captain of Three Forks Area Ambulance APPENDIX B Name Organization Participation George Reich Willow Creek Rural Fire Department, Fire Chief Meetings Jason Manley Yellowstone Club, Fire Meeting Todd Opperman Yellowstone National Park, Deputy FMO Meetings John Cataldo Yellowstone National Park, Fire and Aviation Management Officer APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B 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APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX B APPENDIX C APPENDIX C MEETING ATTENDANCE RECORDS APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C No t e : T h i s m e e t i n g d i d n o t o c c u r , a s n o s t a k e h o l d e r s o r m e m b e r s o f t h e p u b l i c a t t e n d e d . APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C Ga l l a t i n C o u n t y A l l H a z a r d s A l l D i s c i p l i n e s G r o u p 10 / 2 6 / 2 0 1 7 APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C APPENDIX C List of Stakeholders for the 2018 Montana State University PDM Plan Update (includes list of meeting attendees at April 25, 2018 hazard identification , analysis, and risk assessment meeting) APPENDIX D APPENDIX D SUMMARY OF PLAN CHANGES APPENDIX D 2018 PLAN CHANGES The 2012 Gallatin County HMP was updated to reflect current conditions, hazards , and the prioritization of hazards to inform an accurate risk assessment. Data, maps, and figures were updated based on recent, available information, and hazards were discretized geographically to reflect varying vulnerability throughout the c ounty. Changes were made to the document format to improve plan organization and readability. Specific plan changes are outlined in the sections below. Executive Summary / An E xecutive S ummary was added. / A summary table of the hazards identified and prioritized (low, moderate, high) during the update process is included. Section 1.0 – Intr oduction / The Introduction section was updated using the introduction from the previous plan (Section 2.0, 2012 HMP) as a basis . / Sections outlining the purpose, authority, background, and scope of the plan were added. / Maps and data were updated. Section 2 .0 – Planning Process and Methodologies / The Planning Process section (Section 3.0, 2012 HMP), and a portion of the Risk Assessment section (Section 4.0 , 2012 HMP), were combined and updated to create Section 2.0 of the HMP update. / Information was added to describe the 2018 planning process, including descriptions of the planning team and stakeholders, community changes including delineation of five community districts across the county , a brief summary of plan changes, jurisdiction participation and schedule of meetings , public participation, incorporation of existing information, and plan adoption. / Information regarding risk assessment methodologies used in hazard profiles was added. / A section was added to document exis ting local plans, studies, and reports which were incorporated into the plan. Chapter 3.0 – Risk Assessment and Community Inventory / The Risk Assessment section (Section 4.0 , 2012 HMP) in the previous plan was used as a basis to create Section 3.0. / The critical facilities list was updated through internet research and stakeholder input. / The critical facilities GIS and mapping was updated. / Information was added and updated regarding critical infrastructure. / Updated HAZUS information was incorporated. / The Future Development section was updated to include updated plans and estimates. Chapter 4.0 – Risk Assessment/Hazard Profiles / New studies and data were incorporated into the hazard profiles. / Mapping was updated in the hazard profiles. / The hazard history and pro bability were updated in each hazard profile. APPENDIX D / HAZUS data was updated and expanded upon, where possible. / Hazard rankings were updated to reflect current probabilities, vulnerabilities, and community prioritization. The rankings were broken down across the County geographically. Chapter 5.0 – Mitigation Strategy / The Mitigation Goals, Objectives, and Proposed Actions were updated, as needed. Two new goals were added. / The Implementation Plan was updated to reflect new project rankings . Several projects were deleted based on their completion since the previous plan. New projects were added based on changes in hazard prioritization. / A summary of changes to M itigation A ctions is provided / A summary of progress on completing mitigation actions from the previous HMP (2012) is provided. / D etail was added to address the ability of the jurisdictions to leverage and expand upon existing policies and programs. Chapter 6.0 – Plan Maintenance Procedures / Edited the maintenance plan to reflect planning for the next required update and added a recommended update timeline. Appendix A / Updated the References cited in the plan (includes references cited in Annex A ). Appendix B / Updated the invited stakeholders list for the 2018 HMP. Also includes stakeholder participa tion invitation letters; community letters and e -mail notices for public meetings; legal notice order confirmation; and e - mail announcements and GCEM webpage postings used to solicit comments and feedback for draft versions of the HMP . Appendix C / Added 2018 meeting attendance records (includes a meeting held as part of the planning process for the MSU-Bozeman PDM update – Annex A). Appendix D / Updated the changes in the 2018 HMP update. Appendix E / Review comments and input received from project stakeholders and public. Appendix F / Provided the FEMA Approval documentation (i.e., Approval Letter) / Include d the Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool (LMPRT) Appendix G / Updated and included documentation of plan adoption by local jurisdictions . APPENDIX E APPENDIX E PUBLIC AND STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS APPENDIX F APPENDIX F FEMA APPROVAL DOCUMENTATION 1. FEMA APPROVAL LETTER 2. LOCAL MITIGATION PLAN REVIEW TOOL APPENDIX G APPENDIX G LOCAL PLAN ADOPTION DOCUMENTATION ATTACHMENT 1 GALLATIN COUNTY COMMUNITY WILDFIRE PROTECTION PLAN (CWPP) 2018 UPDATE Community Wildfire Protection Plan Gallatin County, Montana Photos courtesy: Gallatin County Emergency Management PREPARED FOR Gallatin County 311 W. Main Street Bozeman, MT 59715 JUNE 2019 Gallatin County TOC-1 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 1-1 2 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 PURPOSE ................................................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 MISSION .................................................................................................................................. 2-1 2.3 RECENT FEDERAL INITIATIVES AND LEGISLATION .................................................................. 2-2 2.4 RELATIONSHIPS TO OTHER PLANS, POLICIES, AND REGULATIONS ......................................... 2-3 2.5 CWPP UPDATE PROCESS ......................................................................................................... 2-5 3 GALLATIN COUNTY LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ............................................................................. 3-1 3.1 OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................. 3-1 3.2 DEMOGRAPHICS ..................................................................................................................... 3-4 3.3 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE .................................................................................................... 3-6 3.4 CLIMATE AND TEMPERATURE ................................................................................................ 3-6 3.4.1 Wind ............................................................................................................................. 3-7 3.5 VEGETATION ........................................................................................................................... 3-7 3.5.1 Fire Adapted Landscape ............................................................................................... 3-7 3.6 WILDLAND-URBAN INTERFACE ............................................................................................... 3-5 3.6.1 Wildland Urban Interface Planning Areas .................................................................... 3-6 3.6.2 Wildland Urban Interface Risk in the West .................................................................. 3-11 3.7 FIRE WEATHER ........................................................................................................................ 3-11 3.8 WILDFIRE HISTORY .................................................................................................................. 3-13 4 WILDFIRE RISK ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................. 4-1 4.1 OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................. 4-1 4.2 LANDSCAPE LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT .................................................................................... 4-1 4.2.1 Wildfire Simulation and Mapping................................................................................. 4-2 4.2.2 Susceptibility and Risk .................................................................................................. 4-5 4.2.3 Improve Risk Assessment Information ......................................................................... 4-8 4.2.4 Risk Assessment Summary ........................................................................................... 4-9 5 A COHESIVE STRATEGY APPROACH IN GALLATIN COUNTY ...................................................... 5-1 5.1 OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................. 5-1 5.1.1 Objectives ..................................................................................................................... 5-1 Gallatin County TOC-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 5.2 RESTORING AND MAINTAINING RESILIENT LANDSCAPES IN GALLATIN COUNTY .................. 5-2 5.2.1 Ecology/Ecosystem-Based Fire Management .............................................................. 5-2 5.2.2 Fuel Treatments for Landscapes (Public and Private) .................................................. 5-3 5.2.3 Prescribed Fire .............................................................................................................. 5-4 5.2.4 Post-Fire Effects and Recovery ..................................................................................... 5-5 5.3 PROMOTING A FIRE-ADAPTED GALLATIN COUNTY ................................................................ 5-5 5.3.1 Community Values ....................................................................................................... 5-2 5.3.2 Community Development and Growth Trends ............................................................ 5-2 5.3.3 Increasing Community Fire Adaptation and Reducing Structural Ignitability .............. 5-3 5.4 INCREASING WILDFIRE RESPONSE THROUGHOUT GALLATIN COUNTY .................................. 5-6 5.4.1 Emergency Preparedness/ Evacuation ......................................................................... 5-7 5.4.2 Ready, Set, Go! Program .............................................................................................. 5-7 5.4.3 Primary Stakeholders and Response Areas .................................................................. 5-7 5.4.4 Additional Stakeholders ............................................................................................... 5-2 5.4.5 Suppression Responsibilities ........................................................................................ 5-2 5.4.6 Interagency Agreements .............................................................................................. 5-3 5.4.7 Current Suppression Challenges and Limitations ......................................................... 5-3 5.4.8 Improving Response ..................................................................................................... 5-4 6 CWPP ACTION PLAN ............................................................................................................. 6-1 6.1 OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................. 6-1 6.2 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT ................................................................................................ 6-1 6.2.1 Residents and Homeowners ......................................................................................... 6-1 6.2.2 Fire and Emergency Responders .................................................................................. 6-1 6.2.3 Civic and Community Leaders ...................................................................................... 6-1 6.2.4 Forest and Land Managers ........................................................................................... 6-1 6.3 ACTION PLAN .......................................................................................................................... 6-4 6.4 PLAN UPDATES AND MAINTENANCE ...................................................................................... 6-7 Gallatin County TOC-3 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan LIST OF TABLES Table 3-1. Overview of Key Demographics in Gallatin County, Montana. ............................................. 3-4 Table 3-2. Gallatin County Climate Statistics. ........................................................................................ 3-7 Table 3-3. Forested and non-forested vegetation cover types. ............................................................. 3-8 Table 3-4. Designated WUI Area by Fire District/Service Area and Gallatin County Rural Fire (County Fire) .................................................................................................................................. 3-10 Table 3-5. Designated WUI Area on Federal, State, and Municipal Property ........................................ 3-10 Table 5-1. Proposed and Recently Completed USFS Fuels Reduction Projects (USFS, Custer- Gallatin N.F. 1) ............................................................................................................................... 5-3 Table 5-2. Proposed and Recently Completed Fuels Reduction Projects on State and Municipal Land ............................................................................................................................................... 5-4 Table 5-3. List of fire departments, districts, and service areas in Gallatin County. ............................. 5-2 Table 6-1. Overview of CWPP Stakeholder Roles .................................................................................. 6-2 Table 6-2. Action Plan ............................................................................................................................ 6-4 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3 -1. Gallatin County Location ........................................................................................................................................... 3-1 Figure 3 -2. Gallatin County Features ............................................................................................................................................ 3-2 Figure 3 -3. Gallatin County Land Ownership .............................................................................................................................. 3-3 Figure 3 -4. Gallatin County Structure Density. ........................................................................................................................... 3-5 Figure 3 -5. Vegetation Cover Map (LANDFIRE) .......................................................................................................................... 3-3 Figure 3 -6. Vegetation Type Map (LANDFIRE) ............................................................................................................................ 3-4 Figure 3 -7. Gallatin County Wildland-Urban Interface ............................................................................................................. 3-7 Figure 3 -8. Critical Infrastructure Wildland-Urban Interface ............................................................................................... 3-8 Figure 3 -9. Gallatin County Fire Districts & Service Areas ....................................................................................................... 3-9 Figure 3 -10. Graphs of Energy Release Component (ERC) for CGNF-Bozeman/Hebgen Lake Ranger Districts (2008 – 2018) [USFS, National Wildfire Coordinating Group-NWCG, Fire Danger Working Team] .................... 3-12 Figure 3 -11. Location and Fire Size Class of Wildfires in Gallatin County, 2008 -2018 .................................................... 3-15 Figure 4 -1. Relative Wildfire Likelihood for Gallatin County .................................................................................................... 4-3 Figure 4 -2. Annual Burn Probability – National Scale for Gallatin County............................................................................ 4-4 Figure 4 -3. Burn Intensity based on Potential Flame Length for Gallatin County. ............................................................. 4-6 Figure 4 -4. Relative Wildfire Hazard for Gallatin County. ......................................................................................................... 4-7 Figure 5 -1. Change in home construction within Gallatin County, 1990 - 2016 (Headwaters Economics, 2018). ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5-3 Figure 5 -2 Ready, Set, Go! Infographic. ...................................................................................................................................... 5-7 Gallatin County TOC-4 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan LIST OF ACRONYMS ACS American Community Survey (US Census Bureau) BLM Bureau of Land Management BP Burn Probability BTU British Thermal Unit BZC Bozeman Interagency Dispatch Center CFL Conditional Flame Length CFR Code of Federal Regulations CGNF Custer-Gallatin National Forest CWPP Community Wildfire Protection Plan DNRC Department of Natural Resources and Conservation ERC Energy Release Component FACLN Fire Adapted Communities Learning Network FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FLAME Federal Land Assistance, Management, and Enhancement (Act, 2009) HFI Healthy Forests Initiative (2002) HFRA Healthy Forests Restoration Act (2013) HMP Hazard Mitigation Plan MAC Multi-Agency Coordinating Group MCA Montana Code Annotated MSA Metropolitan Statistical Area NEPA National Environmental Policy Act NIFC National Interagency Fire Center NPS National Park Service NRCG Northern Rockies Coordinating Group NWCG National Wildfire Coordinating Group PSA Predictive Service Area PSAP Public Safety Answering Point RAWS Remote Automated Weather Station RMRS Rocky Mountain Research Station USDA United States Department of Agriculture USEPA United States Environmental Protection Agency USFS United States Forest Service USGS United States Geological Survey WFDSS Wildland Fire Decision Support System WRCC Western Regional Climate Center WUI Wildland-Urban Interface Gallatin County 1-1 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) are documents that are designed by a local group of stakeholders who are invested in the wildland fire threat to their area. The group of stakeholders typically consists of representatives from local fire districts; local, state, and federal land management agencies (e.g., U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, Montana DNRC); and private property owners and managers. Each of these representatives bring different perspectives regarding strategies to manage and mitigate risks associated with wildland fire. The Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA) of 2003 provides incentives for federal agencies charged with forest and land management to collaborate with local communities as they develop hazardous fuel reduction projects. In turn, the HFRA provides communities an opportunity to influence where and how federal agencies implement fuel reduction projects on federal lands and how and where federal funds can be leveraged for projects on non-federal and private lands. The minimum requirements for a CWPP as described in the HFRA are: / A CWPP must be collaboratively developed by local and state government representatives, in consultation with federal agencies and other interested parties. / A CWPP must identify and prioritize areas for hazardous fuel reduction treatments and recommend the types and methods of treatment that will protect one or more at risk communities and essential infrastructure. / A CWPP must recommend measures that homeowners and communities can take to reduce the ignitability of structures throughout the area. The HFRA also requires that three governing entities must mutually agree to the final contents of a CWPP: / Applicable local governments (i.e., Gallatin County, incorporated cities/towns); / Local fire departments, districts or fire service areas; and / The state agency responsible for forest management (i.e., Montana Dept. of Natural Resources and Conservation - DNRC). The initial CWPP for Gallatin County was completed in 2006. The goals of the 2006 CWPP were to: / Protect life and human safety / Prevent or limit the loss of property / Restore and preserve our forest ecology Significant informational products and recommendations included in the 2006 CWPP included: / Definition and delineation (mapping) of the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) / Development of a WUI Risk Analysis Model / Ongoing review and update of subdivision regulations applicable to WUI areas and risks / Increased public education and outreach regarding the CWPP and WUI planning / Identification, planning and development of mitigation projects on private property Gallatin County 1-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan In the dozen years since completion of the 2006 CWPP, the population in Gallatin County has continued to grow at a rapid rate. Construction of new homes and housing subdivisions, roads, and other infrastructure, some of which has occurred in WUI areas, plays a significant role in how communities plan for wildland fire including prioritization of actions to mitigate risk. This update to the Gallatin County CWPP expands on the information and mapping contained in the 2006 plan and provides more detailed spatial analyses of relative wildfire probability, intensity and overall hazard or risk across the county. Specific items of note within this 2018 CWPP update include: / Refined definition of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) for Gallatin County; / An updated risk and hazard assessment; / New action table and maintenance plan; / Refreshed content to align with national policy and strategies. This update was collaboratively developed by many stakeholders representing different areas of expertise and perspectives. Upon adoption of this CWPP update, stakeholders — including the public — are ready to launch into the critical phase of implementation to ensure that Gallatin County increases its capacity for resilient landscapes, fire adapted communities, and efficient response capabilities. Gallatin County 2-1 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 2 INTRODUCTION The concept of community-based forest planning and management is neither novel nor new. Gallatin County communities and residents have been reminded by several recent wildfires of the need to engage in comprehensive forest planning and prioritization. These fires have included the Flaming Arrow fire (2009) in Bridger Canyon, the Bear Trap fire (2012) along the Madison River, the Bean Canyon Fire (2012) west of Maudlow, the Millie fire (2012) in the Storm Castle Creek drainage southwest of Bozeman, the Cottonwood Gulch (2015) and Horseshoe (2018) fires in the Clarkston-Horseshoe Hills area, the Maple fire (2016) in the northwest corner of Yellowstone National Park, and the Bacon Rind fire (2018) within the Custer-Gallatin National Forest and Yellowstone National Park, along Highway 191 south of Big Sky. This document includes a review of Gallatin County’s past fire history and describes current conditions and status of human development that affect fire probability, severity, and risk. This plan addresses risks to health, safety and property, and provides a comprehensive strategy to improve resiliency to wildfire. 2.1 PURPOSE The purpose of the Gallatin County CWPP is to accomplish the following goals: / Protect lives and property from wildland fires / Foster personal responsibility for taking preventive actions regarding wildland fire / Improve public understanding of the risks associated with living in a fire-adapted ecosystem / Increase the community’s ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from wildland fires / Restore fire-adapted ecosystems / Create and maintain fire-adapted communities / Improve fire resilience of the landscape while protection other social, economic, and ecological values 2.2 MISSION The overall mission of the Gallatin County CWPP is to protect against loss of life, property, and natural resources as the result of wildland fire. The CWPP is structured to accomplish this mission and it continues to serve as a leading document in providing direction and guidance to persons seeking to protect both the human and natural resources within Gallatin County. Photo Credit: ABC/FOX Montana The Horseshoe Fire burns east of Clarkston on the afternoon of Sept. 10, 2018. Gallatin County 2-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Wildland fire is a natural and necessary component of forest ecosystems across the country. Southwest Montana is no exception. Historically, wildland fires have shaped the forests valued by residents and visitors. Forests and other wildlands in Gallatin County, however, are now significantly altered due to past forest management practices, fire prevention efforts, modern fire suppression activities, residential development, and a general lack of large-scale fires. These activities have resulted in overgrown forests— some with closed canopies and all with abundant ladder fuels that dramatically increase the chances of large wildland fires that burn intensely and cause catastrophic losses. Gallatin County has experienced high rates of population growth and home building within the last 20 years, which has led to increased residential development into forested areas and other wildlands, creating more wildland-urban interface/intermix (WUI) areas. A resulting increase in risk to life and property presents a challenge for fire protection, fire prevention, and law enforcement agencies. While reducing and managing risk of high-intensity wildfire is a primary purpose of this plan, prescribed forest and wildland management for hazardous fuels reduction and fire resilience is only one objective. Residents and visitors desire healthy, fire-resilient forests and wildlands that provide habitat for wildlife, recreational opportunities, and scenic beauty. By establishing more fire-adapted communities that integrate efforts on both public and private property, overall fire-resiliency of the landscape improves, along with fire response outcomes that are more predictable and successful. This CWPP update outlines the revised priorities, strategies, and action plan for fuels reduction treatments in the WUI and post-fire recovery. Recommendations are provided for reducing structural vulnerability and creating defensible spaces in communities and other areas at risk. With this revision, the Gallatin County CWPP delivers current information and methodologies for fuels reduction, education, and other projects to decrease the overall risk of loss from wildland fire. This is a “living” document, to be updated periodically to reflect new data, proposed projects and landscape management techniques. 2.3 RECENT FEDERAL INITIATIVES AND LEGISLATION The Healthy Forests Initiative (HFI) was established by the federal government in 2002 to improve regulatory processes and ensure more timely decisions, greater efficiency, and better results in reducing the risk of high-intensity wildfire. This initiative allowed forest management agencies, for the first time, to expedite the documentation process for reducing hazardous fuels on public lands. The U.S. Congress passed historical, bi-partisan legislation, The Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA), in 2003. This legislation expands the initial effort under the HFI and directs federal agencies to collaborate with communities in developing CWPPs which include the identification and prioritization of areas needing hazardous fuels treatment. It further provides opportunities and authority for federal agencies to expedite the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process for fuels reduction projects on federal lands. The act also requires that 50% of funding allocated to fuels projects be used in the WUI. The development and implementation of this CWPP gives the communities of Gallatin County the opportunity to participate in determining where federal agencies place their fuels reduction efforts. With a CWPP in place, Gallatin County, community groups, and other stakeholders can apply for federal grants Gallatin County 2-3 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan to treat hazardous fuels and address special concerns to reduce the risk of catastrophic loss as a result of wildland fire. Congress passed the Federal Land Assistance, Management, and Enhancement (FLAME) Act in 2009 and called for a National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy (Cohesive Strategy) to address wildland fire-related issues across the nation in a collaborative, cohesive manner. The Cohesive Strategy was finalized in 2014 and represents the evolution of a national fire policy: / To safely and effectively extinguish fire, when needed; use fire where allowable; manage our natural resources; and, as a Nation, live with wildland fire / The primary, national goals identified as necessary to achieving the vision are: » Resilient Landscapes: Landscapes across all jurisdictions are resilient to fire-related disturbances in accordance with management objectives. » Fire-Adapted Communities: Human populations and infrastructure can withstand a wildfire without loss of life and property. » Wildfire Response: All jurisdictions participate in making and implementing safe, effective, efficient, risk-based wildfire management decisions. 2.4 RELATIONSHIPS TO OTHER PLANS, POLICIES, AND REGULATIONS This CWPP includes compatibility with Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requirements for a Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP), while also adhering to the guidelines proposed in the National Fire Plan, and HFRA. This CWPP has been prepared in compliance with: / The National Fire Plan: A Collaborative Approach for Reducing Wildland Fire Risks to Communities and the Environment, 10-Year Comprehensive Strategy Implementation Plan (USDA 2006) / HFRA / FEMA Region 8 guidelines for a Local Hazard Mitigation Plan as defined in 44 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Parts 201 and 206, and as related to a fire mitigation plan chapter of a Multi- Hazard Mitigation Plan / National Association of State Foresters: Guidance on identification and prioritizing of treatments between communities (2003). The objective of combining these complementary guidelines is to facilitate an integrated wildland fire risk assessment, identify pre-hazard mitigation activities, and prioritize activities and efforts to achieve the protection of people, structures, the environment, and significant infrastructure in Gallatin County while facilitating new opportunities for pre- disaster mitigation funding and cooperation. Building a collaborative and cooperative environment with the local fire districts, community-based organizations, local governments, and the public land management agencies has been the first step in reducing the risk of loss from wildland fire. The importance of collaboration with neighboring counties and jurisdictions and understanding goals of their CWPPs is recognized by Gallatin County and is referenced throughout this CWPP as documentation of collaborative efforts to maximize hazardous fuels reduction efforts in the area. Gallatin County 2-4 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Several local plans, policies and regulations are referenced within this CWPP update. This locally based guidance and information was used in development of the CWPP to ensure that consistent and cohesive wildfire management and mitigation strategies are presented. The most frequently referenced plans and policy documents include: Gallatin County Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) The 2018 update to the Gallatin County HMP is being completed in tandem with the CWPP update. The CWPP will become an Attachment to the updated HMP. Information on population trends, critical facilities and infrastructure, housing stock, and land use are incorporated into the CWPP. Wildfire is identified as a high-priority hazard in the HMP and data regarding wildfire history, risk, and vulnerability are presented. The mitigation strategy in the HMP includes goals and objectives aimed at preventing losses from wildfires and reducing wildfire risk within the WUI. Growth Policies and Regulations The Gallatin County Growth Policy (and accompanying Resource Documents) was adopted in April 2003 as the document intended to help guide future growth and land development in the county. It is the community’s hope, and the County’s commitment, that growth occur in a coordinated, logical, and cost- effective manner that minimizes unplanned, costly sprawl. The growth policy is used to guide land use decisions, and decisions relative to the provision of public facilities and services as well as the conservation and protection of environmentally sensitive lands. The County is currently engaged in an update of the Growth Policy with an expected completion date of 2021. The City of Bozeman’s Community Plan (Growth Policy) was adopted in June 2009. The Plan defines the city’s goals and objectives for growth, provides maps and text that describe the characteristics and features of jurisdictional areas, and presents a timetable for implementing elements within the growth policy. Chapter 13 of the plan discusses the city’s planning efforts for disaster prevention and response, with wildfire listed as one of the natural hazards present in the Bozeman area. The Community Plan is currently being updated with completion anticipated in 2019. Other long-range growth and planning policy and study documents include the Belgrade Growth Policy (2006) and the Gallatin Triangle Planning Study (Sanderson Stewart, 2014), which includes recommendations for regional planning cooperation between Gallatin County and the cities of Belgrade and Bozeman. The City of Bozeman has also recently completed (April 2019) a Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resiliency Strategy document which aims to guide the City in its preparations for the effects of climate change and build resilience in delivering services to its residents. Subdivision and zoning regulations at both the county and municipal (Belgrade, Bozeman) levels provide additional tools for potential future implementation of risk reduction actions presented in this CWPP. Other Local CWPPs The purpose of this CWPP is to complement other local CWPPs that may be prepared by jurisdictions with the county (e.g., cities, towns, fire districts, homeowner’s associations), or by adjacent counties including Broadwater, Madison, Meagher and Park. CWPPs prepared at different scales can prioritize risk mitigation activities that are focused on specific areas. Gallatin County 2-5 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 2.5 CWPP UPDATE PROCESS The current Gallatin County CWPP was completed in 2006. Continued efforts have been made by local, state, and federal agencies to reduce the threat of high-intensity wildland fires through landowner education as well as fuels reduction activities on both public and private lands. In addition, private landowners have responded enthusiastically to community defensible space initiatives and recommendations to reduce hazardous fuels on their own properties. Preparation of a CWPP follows a three-step process of development, adoption, and implementation: / During development, communication is initiated between resource agencies, local community representatives, private organizations and other stakeholders to discuss and mutually agree on wildfire risk reduction goals and strategies. / The adopted plan provides an informative and action-oriented framework to guide implementation of mitigation actions and projects. / Through ongoing and long-term actions, stakeholders work to achieve the goals set forth in the CWPP and suggest adjustments to improve actions, when necessary. Photo Credit: M. Rotar West Yellowstone, Montana looking to the east into Yellowstone National Park. Gallatin County 3-1 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 3 GALLATIN COUNTY LOCAL ENVIRONMENT 3.1 OVERVIEW Gallatin County is located in southwest Montana as shown in Figure 1, with an area of approximately 2,631 square miles and elevations ranging from approximately 4,000 to 10,700 feet. Gallatin County is bordered by Meagher County to the northeast, Park County to the east, Jefferson and Broadwater Counties to the northwest, Madison County to the southwest, and Yellowstone National Park and the state of Wyoming to the southeast. The state of Idaho borders the far southwest corner of Gallatin County. The City of Bozeman is the county seat and largest city. Other incorporated communities include the cities of Belgrade and Three Forks, and the Towns of Manhattan and West Yellowstone. The communities of Big Sky, Four Corners, and Gallatin Gateway and Willow Creek represent other population centers. Figure 3-1. Gallatin County Location Figure 2 shows the general features in the county. The Gallatin Valley is a dominant feature in the northern portion of the county, bisected south to north by the Gallatin River and covering a land area of approximately 400 square miles. The valley is bordered by the Bridger Mountain range to the northeast, the Gallatin Mountains to the south and the Horseshoe Hills to the north. The Madison and Jefferson River valleys occupy the western extent of the county, with the three rivers (Gallatin, Jefferson, Madison) meeting northeast of Three Forks to form the headwaters of the Missouri River. The southern portion of Gallatin County 3-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan the county is dominated by the Gallatin River drainage and canyon running from south to north. Peaks of the Gallatin Range are located on either side of the canyon. At the far southern end of the county, the Madison River enters the county from the east and Yellowstone National Park, flowing into Hebgen Lake and then Quake Lake. The Town of West Yellowstone is located at the southern end of the county and is adjacent to one of the four main entrances to Yellowstone Park. Figure 3-2. Gallatin County Features Gallatin County 3-3 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Gallatin County has varied land use, with nearly half of the land area under public ownership by the U.S. Forest Service, State of Montana, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) or the National Park Service. Both urban and rural communities are present, with individual residences and farms interspersed. Significant population growth and accompanying land development is occurring in several areas within the Figure 3- 3 shows the land ownership in the county. Figure 3-3. Gallatin County Land Ownership Gallatin County 3-4 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 3.2 DEMOGRAPHICS Gallatin County, and particularly the City of Bozeman, is growing rapidly. Between 2000 and 2018, the county’s population increased by almost 65% from 67,831 to 111,876 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2018). This represents an average annual growth rate of 2.8%. In 2018, the City of Bozeman was ranked as the fastest growing micropolitan area (cities under 50,000 population) in the U.S. (POLICOM, 2018). Bozeman’s estimated population in 2018 is 48,532 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2018), and by 2020 it is expected the population will eclipse 50,000, thus making the city and a large portion of Gallatin County the state’s fourth Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The other incorporated communities in Gallatin County include: Belgrade (2018 pop. est. 8,993), Manhattan (2018 pop. est. 1,822), Three Forks (2018 pop. est. 2,053), and West Yellowstone (2018 pop. est. 1,382). Other census-designated places in the county include Big Sky (pop. 2,904, 2017 ACS 5-yr population est.), Gallatin Gateway-Four Corners (pop. 4,943, 2017 ACS 5-yr population est.), and Willow Creek (pop. 207, ACS 5-yr population est.). Table 3-1 provides a snapshot of several key demographics within Gallatin County. Table 3-1. Overview of Key Demographics in Gallatin County, Montana. Demographic Magnitude / Quantity of Key Statistic Notes Population (2018 est. 1) 111,876 residents Population has increased by 22,363 residents (25%) since 2010 Projected Population (2040 est. 2) 122,432 – 177,477 residents A steady increase in population is forecast through 2040, however estimates vary considerably based on different modeling scenarios, which is to be expected as future population trends are estimations at best Population Density 43 persons / square mile Average population density for Montana is 6.8 persons per square mile 3 Median Age 4 33.4 years Total Number of Housing Units 5 51,011 units Median Household Income 5 $59,397 Workforce Employment (2016) 5 45,778 persons Poverty Rate 4 13.0% 1 U.S. Census Bureau Data, population estimate July 1, 2018. 2 MT Dept. of Commerce, Census and Economic Information Center (sourced by eREMI) – low projection; Belgrade Long-Range Transportation Plan (sourced by Woods and Poole Economics) – high projection. 3 2018 Economic Profile – Population Trends, Prospera Business Network, Bozeman. 4 U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS). 5 U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts, July 1, 2018 (site accessed 5/28/2019). While Gallatin County’s population density is substantially greater than the average population density in Montana, it varies widely across the county. The City of Bozeman’s population density was 1,950 persons per square mile in 2010 (U.S. Census, 2018). Outside of Bozeman and the county’s other incorporated cities and towns, and census-designated places, the average population density in the county is approximately 13 persons per square mile. Figure 3-4 illustrates the distribution of structure density patterns across the county (based on address point data). Structure density can be used as a surrogate to represent population density given the strong correlation between population and the built environment. Gallatin County 3-5 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 3-4. Gallatin County Structure Density. Gallatin County 3-6 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 3.3 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Critical Infrastructure is a critical component of planning for, and responding to, wildfires in Gallatin County. By default, utility distribution systems, communications infrastructure, watersheds, primary egress routes and other human-made attributes that prevent their failure, are critical to the continued operation of the community and considered critical infrastructure. This plan captures and identifies some, but not all critical infrastructure. This is because some critical infrastructure’s details are considered sensitive and not for public distribution, while accurate and complete data may not exist for other infrastructure. We also recognize that new infrastructure is continually being added and may not be captured until the next update of this plan. Regardless of whether a specific piece of human-made infrastructure is listed in this plan, if its continued operation is vital to the continuity and/or safety of our community, it should be considered critical infrastructure and treated as such in mitigation, planning and response activities. The Community recognizes the importance of mapping as much critical infrastructure as possible and the important relationship it plays in connection to our mapped Wildland-Urban Interface. The County intends to develop a Critical Infrastructure Wildland-Urban Interface layer to be utilized in conjunction with the other mapped Wildland-Urban Interface areas. Implementation of this Critical Infrastructure WUI layer was not able to be completed prior to initiation of the State and Federal review process of this Plan. The County intends to add this data layer prior to the final adoption process. 3.4 CLIMATE AND TEMPERATURE The Gallatin Valley, which occupies a substantial portion of the northern half of Gallatin County, experiences a dry continental climate. A gradient of average annual precipitation extends from west to east across the valley, with Three Forks at the west end receiving an average of 12 inches per year, and the foothills along the Bridger and Gallatin Mountains at the east and south end of the valley receiving an average of up to 25 inches of precipitation. The fertile soils of the valley are very conducive to agricultural production, and indeed the principal economic driver as the valley was settled in the 1860s was agriculture. This continues to the present, although light industry, recreation and tourism have steadily increased over the last century, reducing the footprint that agriculture has on the valley today. Beyond the Gallatin Valley, the county is dominated primarily by higher elevation mountain ranges and smaller intervening valleys. The Horseshoe Hills in the far northwest area of the county is characterized by a steppe environment. The higher, mountainous areas range from the montane, through subalpine to alpine ecosystems. As expected, these higher elevation areas are substantially cooler than the valley floors and receive significantly greater amounts of precipitation, primarily as snow during the winter season. Table 3-2 (Western Regional Climate Center, 2017) provides a summary of climatic data for Gallatin County. Gallatin County 3-7 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Table 3-2. Gallatin County Climate Statistics. Montana State University 1982 - 2016 Belgrade (Bozema- Yellowstone Int’l Airport) 1941 - 2016 Trident 1922 - 2016 West Yellowston 1924 - 2013 Annual Average Max . Daily Temp . 55.2°F 56.0°F 60.2°F 50.3°F Annual Average Min . Daily Temp. 31.2°F 28.2°F 32.0°F 19.6°F Annual Average Total Precip. 18.48 inches 13.92 inches 12.43 inches 21.56 inches Annual Average Total Snow 86.0 inches 47.0 inches 28.5 inches 160.10 inche s Highest Temperature Recorded 105°F (7/31/1892) 106°F (7/6/2007) 109°F (7/22/1931) 97°F (7/19/1936) Lowest Temperature Record - 43°F (2/8/1936) - 46°F (1/26/1957) - 55°F (12/31/1927) - 66°F (2/9/1933) Annual Average Number of D Dropping Below Freezing 181.7 days 199.3 days 172.2 days 270.7 days Annual Average Number of Staying Below Freezing 48.0 days 51.9 days 33.6 days 87.8 days Annual Average Number of Reaching 90°F or Higher 7.4 days 19.8 days 31.3 days 2.2 days Highest Annual Precipitation 25.57 in . (1997) 20.04 in . (1969) 20.96 in . (1997 ) 29.32 in . ( 1955 ) Lowest Annual Precipitation 10.54 i n. ( 1934 ) 8.65 in . (1961 ) 6.42 in . ( 1974 ) 15.68 in . (1934 ) 1-Day Maximum Precipitatio 2.68 in . (5/7/19 88) 2.14 in. (6/ 25/1969) 2.00 in . (5/ 25/1980 ) 2.70 in . (6/ 17/1925 ) Highest Annual Snowfall 1 159.5 in. (1975) 87.4 in. (1955) 75.0 in. (1989) 276.1 in. (1994) 1 Based on a calendar year, not a snowfall season. 3.4.1 Wind Wind plays an important role in the fire environment and extent of fire spread across all landscapes found in Gallatin County. The prevailing winds that influence fire spread originate from the southwest, pushing fire movement in the northeasterly direction. During extreme weather events, the montane landscapes experience high, hot and dry winds originating from the easterly direction, which can cause unpredictable fire behavior situations. Strong winds are associated with cold fronts and thunderstorms, resulting in drastic, erratic shifts in wind direction and strong downdraft wind activity. Winds gust in excess of 40-70 mph are not uncommon with cold fronts and thunderstorms in this area. 3.5 VEGETATION 3.5.1 Fire Adapted Landscape The forested areas in Gallatin County exhibit a variety of fire regimes, depending on forest type and elevation. Cycles of frequent, low-intensity fire could be found at the lowest elevations, while mid to high elevations exhibited less frequent fire at moderate to high intensity. Over a century of successful fire suppression activities and excessive fuels build-up has altered the historical fire regime intensity and severity, primarily in the lower to mid elevation forest types. The most recent forest assessment for the CGNF indicates a trend of more extreme disturbance events (large-scale fires) with longer durations due to anticipated warmer and drier climatic changes and increased horizontal and vertical fuel accumulations (USFS 2017). 3.5.1.1 Forest Vegetation USFS Region 1 classification for existing vegetation includes dominance types, which represents broad species groups of dominant vegetation (Milburn et al. 2015, Reid et al. 2016). Dominance types are classified by broad groups of existing vegetation called Region 1 cover types. Unlike potential vegetation, Gallatin County 3-8 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan which is relatively static, cover type changes through time based on successional pathways and disturbances. Presence and distribution of cover types is important to understanding ecosystem diversity and function across the CGNF. The vegetation cover types that occur on the CGNF and representation within each analysis landscape are described in Table 3-3 (from CGNF Forest Plan Revision, USFS 2017). Forested areas tend to be on steeper terrain intermingled with grass and shrubs providing an abundance of ladder fuels which leads to horizontal and vertical fuel continuity. These factors, when combined with arid and windy conditions characteristic of the region, can result in high intensity fires with large flame length and fire brands that may spot long distances. Rates of fire spread tend to be lower than those in the grasslands; however, intensities can escalate dramatically, especially under the effect of slope and wind. Such fires present significant control issues for suppression resources and can result in large wildland fires. Table 3-3. Forested and non-forested vegetation cover types. Cover Type Description Non-Forested Includes non-forest dominated cover types: grass, dry shrub, riparian grass/shrub. These are further defined and discussed in the non-forested assessment (Reid 2016). Ponderosa Pine This cover type includes sites dominated by ponderosa pine, juniper, or limber pine. A minor component of Douglas-fir can be present. Ponderosa pine is an early seral, shade intolerant, fire resistant species that is found on a narrow elevation band between non-forested ecotones and Douglas-fir. This type usually grows on the warm dry forested habitat type group, but also on hot dry and moderately warm and dry. Dry Douglas-fir Dry sites dominated by Douglas-fir, with potential components of ponderosa pine, limber, or juniper. Douglas-fir is one of the most common species on the montane landscapes of Gallatin County. It is moderately shade and drought-tolerant, which enables it to function as both an early and late seral species. This type occurs commonly on warm dry, moderately warm dry, and moderately warm moderately dry habitat type group. Mixed Mesic Conifer Sites dominated by Douglas-fir which can be mixed with lodgepole pine, and/or subalpine fir/spruce. This type is found on more moist and productive sites than the dry Douglas-fir type. This cover type is found most commonly on cool moderately dry to moist habitat type groups but can also occur on cool moist types or moderately warm moderately dry. Lodgepole Pine Sites dominated by lodgepole pine with minor components of other species. Lodgepole pine is a very abundant species on the montane landscapes of Gallatin County, growing under a wide range of conditions. Where dominant it is often single-storied. Without disturbance it succeeds to Douglas fir, spruce, and/or subalpine fir. This cover type can occur on multiple habitat type groups, most commonly cool moderately dry to moist. Aspen/Hardwood Areas dominated by aspen, cottonwood, and birch, often with shrubs such as willow and alder. This type often occurs in association with riparian and moist upland areas. Without disturbance, conifers will eventually dominate. This cover type can be found in almost all habitat type groups. Spruce/fir Subalpine fir and/or Engelmann spruce dominate, with minor components of other species. These are often climax forests. Where these shade-tolerant climax species have become dominant, stands are usually multilayered and dense. This cover type can occur on any of the habitat types in the broad cool moist or cold potential vegetation groups Whitebark pine The whitebark pine cover type occurs at the high elevations, commonly on the cold habitat type group (where it is perpetuated by disturbance) or timberline habitat type group (where it is the most dominant). Alpine larch is a potential component but is not known to occur in Gallatin County. Minor components of subalpine fir, spruce, Douglas-fir, limber pine, or lodgepole pine may occur. Whitebark is a shade intolerant, moderately fire-resistant species. Ongoing mortality due to the exotic blister rust fungus has reduced its extent. USFS 2017, Custer Gallatin National Forest, Forest Plan Revision Assessment, Final Fire Report, Prepared by J. Shea, February 2017. Milburn et. al., 2015, USFS Region 1, Existing and Potential Vegetation Groupings used for Broad-level Analysis and Monitoring, Nov. 2015. Reid et. al., 2016, Vegetation grouping for the CGNF Plan Revision and Metadata for Adjustments made to VMap, 2016. Gallatin County 3-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 3.5.1.2 Rangeland Vegetation (CGNF Forest Plan Revision, Non-forested Terrestrial Ecosystems Report, USFS 2017). A variety of grasslands are associated moist (mesic) and drier (xeric) shrublands in varying patterns across the landscape. Mesic shrublands are often associated with coniferous forests and occur as large landscape patches on moister sites (e.g., northeast facing slopes) or in smaller patches in grasslands. Because of the moisture regime, these shrublands can be very productive and therefore favored by wildlife. Grasslands occur mostly on areas too dry to support trees, although a few are found on soils at mid to high elevations that are too wet during the growing season for tree growth. In the forest zone between the upper and lower timberline, areas dominated by shrubs, forbs and grasses typically include one or more of the following characteristics: convex or well-drained landforms, thin or poorly developed soils that usually are quite dry, and high winds. Fires or landslides open-up the forests in some areas, allowing early successional herbaceous and shrubby stages to flourish for a time. Above treeline in the alpine zone, the climate is too severe for trees. Grass cover type is estimated to be about 11 to 32 percent of the montane units using Region 1 existing vegetation database data. Shrublands have deeper, more developed soils and more available moisture. In the montane units, shrublands are mostly dominated by mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata vaseyana) with some lower elevations dominated by Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata wyomingensis). Bitterbrush (Purshia tridentata) is found on the Hebgen Lake unit on mid to lower slope positions of south and west-facing exposures. Shrubby cinquefoil is found in moist sagebrush communities and occasionally on the fringes of wet or moist meadows at higher elevations. Willow-dominated shrublands (Salix spp.) are common in riparian areas and wet meadows. Mountain big sagebrush generally occupies open dry sites at elevations below montane forests where winters are cold and dry, spring and early summer months receive most precipitation, and drier conditions are expected from mid-summer through the fall (Welch 2005). Sagebrush steppe vegetation, dominated by mountain big sagebrush, is also characterized by the presence of native forbs and cool season perennial bunch grasses (for example, Agropyron, Festuca, Koeleria, Poa, Stipa). Without periodic fire, sagebrush reaches an uncharacteristic old-growth form with increased height, woody stems, and thick accumulations of leaves – all highly flammable with fire behavior that is very similar to crown fires in larger conifers. Introduction of annuals, especially cheat grass, has increased fuel loads so that fire carries easily, increasing the potential for significant and dangerous fire behavior. 3.5.1.3 Noxious Weeds Noxious weeds and cheat grass are found across Gallatin County and present yearly challenges for residents, agricultural users, and fire suppression agencies. Cheat grass, introduced invasive annuals and other noxious weeds typically occur where the ground has been disturbed to create roads, paths, or other plantings. Once established, they return perennially and can reach heights of three feet or more creating an easily ignitable fuel bed once they dry out during summer months. Fires that occur in this type of fuel spread quickly and can direct fire to other fuels such as trees or structures. Cheatgrass provides a flammable link in the brush and forests vegetation types. It cures early in the fire season and ignites readily during dry periods because of its very fine structure that responds readily to changes in the atmospheric moisture, tendency to accumulate litter, and invasive nature. Cheatgrass promotes more frequent fires by increasing the biomass and horizontal continuity of fine fuels that persist during the summer lightning season. Its expansion has dramatically changed fire regimes and plant communities over vast areas of western rangelands by creating an environment where fires are easily ignited, spread rapidly, cover large areas, and occur frequently. Fire in these habitats can have severe effects on native species of plants and animals. USFS 2017, Custer Gallatin National Forest, Forest Plan Revision Assessment, Final Non-forested Terrestrial Ecosystems Report, Prepared by Kim Reid, February 2017. Welch, 2005, Getting Acquainted with Big Sagebrush, In: Big Sagebrush: A sea fragmented into lakes, ponds, and puddles. Gen. Tech. Report, RMRS-GTR-144. Fort Collins, CO: USDA-USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station: 1-46. Gallatin County 3-3 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 3-5. Vegetation Cover Map (LANDFIRE) Gallatin County 3-4 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 3-6. Vegetation Type Map (LANDFIRE) Gallatin County 3-5 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 3.6 WILDLAND-URBAN INTERFACE This 2018 Gallatin County CWPP update defines the concept of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) as: “Any area where the combination of human development and vegetation have a potential to result in negative impacts from wildfire on the community.” As a means of comparison, the 2017 Montana Code Annotated (MCA), Title 76. Land Resources and Use, Chapter 13. Timber Resources, Part 1. Protection of Forest Resources, has the following definition: (16) "The line, area, or zone where structures and other human development meet or intermingle with undeveloped wildland or vegetative fuels.” and, the Gallatin County Subdivision Regulations (2014) include the following definition: “An area where improved property and wildland fuels are both present.” The formal definition of WUI is found in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) and describes conditions under which vegetation and structures meet or intermix. This definition uses levels of structure density or population density to subdivide WUI into Interface and Intermix categories. Interface refers to areas where structures directly border wildland fuels, but there is a clear line of demarcation between developed and wildland areas. Intermix refers to areas where structures are scattered throughout a wildland area. While the CFR guidelines for structure density are helpful, the definitions are still vague in terms of geographically defining WUI with a set of mappable criteria. This CWPP generally adopts the approach used by the U.S. Forest Service in mapping WUI for the conterminous U.S. from 2010 U.S. Census data. Based on Federal Register definitions, this approach combines structure density data and landcover data depicting wildland vegetation to map the categories of WUI. For the Gallatin County WUI mapping, structure density was derived from county-level address point data, instead of structure density numbers at the census block polygon level used in the national mapping work. As a means of connecting WUI mapping to fire behavior modeling included in this CWPP, any areas mapped as having burnable wildland fuels for the purposes of modeling were considered to be wildland vegetation for the purposes of WUI. An important difference between the WUI mapping criteria adopted in this CWPP and the criteria used for national WUI mapping is the use of a lower structure density threshold to define WUI. In the Federal Register and the national WUI mapping, areas must have at least 6.18 structures per square kilometer (1 per 40 acres) to be considered WUI. This leaves out sparsely populated areas with less than this density from the defined WUI area. As a conservative approximation of where future development could occur and recognizing that fire protection efforts are often undertaken for any structure regardless of density, the decision was made to include all areas with structure density greater than zero in the spatial definition of WUI for Gallatin County. The spatial criteria for mapping WUI in this Gallatin County CWPP are: 1. WUI Intermix = Areas with structure density > 0, and ≥ 50% cover of wildland vegetation within a 40-acre radius. These are places where structures and wildland vegetation are interspersed. 2. WUI Interface = Areas with structure density > 0, and < 50% cover of wildland vegetation within a 40-acre radius, located within 1.5 miles of a large, contiguous Gallatin County 3-6 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan area of wildland vegetation (i.e., > 1,235 acres with ≥ 75% wildland vegetation). These are developed areas with less cover of natural vegetation, but within a distance where embers from wildfire in adjacent wildlands could cause wildfire impacts. 3. Non-WUI Inhabited = Areas with structure density > 0, and < 50% cover of wildland vegetation within a 40-acre radius, located further than 1.5 miles from a large, contiguous area of wildland vegetation. These are developed areas far enough from wildland vegetation that they have reduced likelihood of wildfire impacts. 4. Non-WUI Uninhabited = Areas with structure density = 0. These are areas with burnable fuels and no development. A map of the WUI for Gallatin County based on these criteria is shown in Figure 3-7. The WUI map was completed by developing mapping for: (1) “at-risk communities”, as defined in the Federal Register based on structure densities, and applying methods developed by the SILVS lab (USFS – RMRS). https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2001/01/04/01-52/urban-wildland-interface-communities- within-the-vicinity-of-federal-lands-that-are-at-high-risk-from, and (2) the area surrounding the at-risk communities (using spatial criteria as defined above) https://www.fs.fed.us/projects/hfi/field- guide/web/page22.php. The total designated WUI area within Gallatin County (as shown on Figure 3-7) is 1,100,017 acres, of which 753,342 acres is Intermix, and 246,765 acres is Interface. Additional high-value resources and assets that were included in the WUI mapping include the following: 1. Designated travel/egress routes with a 0.5-mile buffer on either side. 2. Other areas designated as “at-risk” (USFS-CGNF) including FS buildings, high-value recreation areas and communication sites. These assets were buffered in the same manner as the structure address points. 3. Municipal watersheds, including Bozeman, Lyman Springs and Whiskey Springs (West Yellowstone). 3.6.1 Wildland Urban Interface Planning Areas The Gallatin County CWPP is multi-jurisdictional and addresses all lands and ownership within the boundaries of the plan area. Primary fire protection and suppression on the majority of private lands across the county are provided by local fire districts/service areas or Gallatin County Rural Fire (“County Fire”), which provides fire protection and suppression on most private lands outside of organized fire protection agencies, under a Cooperative Fire Control Agreement with the State of Montana ([“DNRC Co-op Plan”], Gallatin County, 2015) (Figure 3-8 shows the jurisdictional boundaries for the 15 local fire districts/service areas within the county. Note that three fire jurisdictions extend outside of the county boundary (Big Sky, Three Forks, and Willow Creek). All federal lands (USFS-CGNF and Yellowstone National Park) are under wildfire protection from their respective agencies. In addition, USFS provides wildland fire protection on BLM lands (Montana Cooperative Fire Management and Stafford Act Response Agreement, 2011); and on state land on behalf of the DNRC, under an agreement known as protection offset. USFS also provides primary response/protection on some privately-owned forest parcels that are within a designated wildland fire protection district (pursuant to Title 76, Chapter 13, Part 2, MCA), and “Affidavit Land”, where wildland fire protection is requested by the landowner via assessment (USFS-CGNF, 2016). As the designated protecting agency, the USFS has primary wildland suppression responsibility on Affidavit lands; however, structure fire suppression remains the sole responsibility of DNRC, County Fire or local fire districts. Gallatin County, 2015, Rural Fire Protection Operating Plan. USFS-CGNF, 2016, Fire Management Plan, Chapter 4, pages 24-32. Gallatin County 3-7 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 3-7. Gallatin County Wildland-Urban Interface Gallatin County 3-8 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 3-8. Critical Infrastructure Wildland-Urban Interface Gallatin County 3-9 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 3-9. Gallatin County Fire Districts & Service Areas Gallatin County 3-10 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Table 3-4 provides a breakdown of WUI area located within each fire district/service area jurisdiction, and Table 3-5 provides a listing of WUI area on federal and state-owned lands. Table 3-4. Designated WUI Area by Fire District/Service Area and Gallatin County Rural Fire (County Fire) Fire District or Service Area WUI Area (Acres / % of total) Description Amsterdam 44,604 / 79% primarily cropland, bench/draw terrain (Camp Ck. Hills, Madison Plateau) Big Sky 32,751 / 88% mid-elev. meadows, steep forested/mountain terrain, Gallatin R. canyon Bozeman 12,169 / 95% urban Gallatin Valley, Bridger/Bangtail foothills, Bozeman Ck./E. Gallatin R. Bridger Canyon 25,855 / 99% E. flank of Bridger range, Bridger canyon (broad valley), W. flank of Bangtails Central Valley 116,559 / 99% rural/urban Gallatin Valley, cropland, W. flank Bridger range, Dry Creek hills Clarkston 15,333 / 100% Missouri River valley, Horseshoe Hills Fort Ellis 37,244 / 96% southeast Gallatin Valley, Mt. Ellis, Bear Canyon, Bozeman Pass, Trail Creek Gallatin Gateway 58,300 / 86% Gallatin R./Canyon (Lava Lake to mouth), S. Cottonwood canyon, High Flat Gallatin River Ranch 7,475 / 100% Gallatin River, Horseshoe Hills Hebgen Basin 64,572 / 51% southern Madison range, Hebgen Lake, Quake Lake Hyalite 29,366 / 100% Middle Ck., mouths of Hyalite, Leverich & Sourdough canyons, Triple Tree bench Manhattan 33,032 / 88% primarily cropland, Gallatin/E. Gallatin Rivers, Camp Creek Sedan 29,701 / 92% northeast flank of Bridger range, north Bangtail Mountains Three Forks 85,097 / 79% cropland, Gallatin/Madison/Jefferson R., Madison R. valley/bluffs, Camp Ck. Hills Willow Creek 50,847 / 67% Jefferson River valley, Madison plateau County Fire 141,033 / 53% mainly northern extent of County (Clarkston, Horseshoe Hills, N. Dry Creek, Maudlow, N. Bridgers, Norris Rd., Madison R. valley, and isolated land parcels N & E of Bozeman) Table 3-5. Designated WUI Area on Federal, State, and Municipal Property Agency or Department WUI Area (Acres) Description U.S. Forest Service, CGNF 255,124 Bridger and Bangtail ranges, Gallatin, Hyalite & Madison ranges U.S. Bureau of Land Management 3,549 Dry Creek Hills, Horseshoe Hills, Madison Plateau, other U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 174 Bozeman Fish Technology center, other National Park Service 13,227 Yellowstone National Park FEDERAL LAND TOTAL 272,075 State of Montana 149 various property within county Montana State Trust Lands 32,041 distributed throughout county Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks 4,385 Region 3 headquarters, various fishing access sites Montana University System 2,062 MSU-Bozeman, Post agronomy farm, Ft. Ellis research farm Montana Dept. of Transportation 156 Nelson Rd. maintenance facility, various sand storage areas MT-DNRC State Water Projects 73 Hyalite Reservoir Gallatin County 1,144 various county infrastructure, road/bridge dept., Logan landfill Municipal (incorporated cities/towns) 4,197 Belgrade, Bozeman, Manhattan, Three Forks, W. Yellowstone STATE/MUNICIPAL TOTAL 44,207 Gallatin County 3-11 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 3.6.2 Wildland Urban Interface Risk in the West According to a customized report prepared using the Economic Profile System (Headwaters Economics, 2019), Gallatin County ranks in the 73rd and 88th percentile, respectively, of existing WUI risk (amount of forested land where homes have already been built next to public lands), and future WUI risk (the area of undeveloped, forested private land bordering fire-prone public lands) throughout the West (413 western counties) in 2010. A higher percentile represents a greater relative risk, with the 100th percentile being the highest. Within the entire state of Montana, Gallatin County ranks in the 82nd percentile for existing risk, and 88th percentile for future potential risk, based on 2010 data. While home construction is not the only contributor to the rising cost of fighting fires, it is an important factor and one that is expected to rise with continued development, particularly in the absence of proper land use planning. A warming climate is likely to exacerbate these costs even further, continuing or even increasing the established risk rankings. 3.7 FIRE WEATHER Fire weather is a combination of conditions that set the stage for the rapid spread of wildfires. The critical weather metrics that determine fire weather severity include temperature, relative humidity, winds, and atmospheric instability. Fire behavior specialists utilize specific indices that combine multiple weather parameters to predict the potential for fire ignition, spread rate, and heat release. The Energy Release Component (ERC) is a number related to the available energy (BTU) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. Daily variations in ERC are due to changes in moisture content of the various fuels present, both live and dead. The ERC for fuel model G (short-needle, heavy dead) is often used in predictions of fire danger and large fire activity. The ERC-G has been shown to be strongly correlated with area burned in the western United States (Riley et al. 2013). Predictive Service Areas (PSAs) which integrate weather data from several Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) are delineated to predict fuels and fire danger for given regions. The CGNF-Bozeman/Hebgen Lake Ranger Districts are within PSA-NR12, covering forested areas south of the Gallatin Valley to the southern extent of the county. Figure 3-9 provides two graphs showing maximum, average and 83rd percentile ERC values over 11 years (2008 – 2018), and ERC traces for the 2008 and 2012 fire seasons. ERC values greater than 83% indicate potential for large fire growth. The average (blue line) plot shows a typical pattern of low ERC values in the spring, rising steadily through initial snow melt and green-up in April and May, then falling in late-May into June due to higher precipitation amounts that are common during that period. Dry, summer conditions begin to prevail in late-June and ERC values increase rapidly, typically exceeding the 83% threshold between mid-July and mid-September. Periodic fall moisture, coupled with steadily decreasing solar insolation, results in rapidly decreasing ERC values in late-September through early November, and diminished potential for wildfire. Notably, the maximum plot (black line), which represents the maximum ERC recorded for a particular date during the 11-year period, shows that ERC values can exceed 83% in early-May and remain above that threshold as late as November. The years 2008 and 2012 are significant during the 11-year period, representing very different fire seasons. 2008 was a relatively mild fire season with less than two months where ERC values exceeded 83%. Conversely, 2012 saw nearly four months where ERC values exceeded 83%; the Millie Fire occurred in late- August of 2012 with ERC values at the 98%-level of the 11-year period (2008 – 2018). Headwater Economics, A Profile of Development and the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). Generated for Gallatin County, MT using the Economic Profile System (EPS), April 2019. EPS Data Sources: Gude, P.H., Rasker, R. and van den Noort, J. 2008. Potential for Future Development on Fire-prone Lands. Journal of Forestry 106(4):198-205; U.S. Department of Commerce, 2011. TIGER/Line 2010 Census Blocks and 2010 Summary File 1, Washington, D.C. Riley, K., et al., 2013, The relationship of large fire occurrence with drought and fire danger indices in the western USA, 1984-2008: the role of temporal scale. Gallatin County 3-12 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 3-10. Graphs of Energy Release Component (ERC) for CGNF-Bozeman/Hebgen Lake Ranger Districts (2008 – 2018) [USFS, National Wildfire Coordinating Group-NWCG, Fire Danger Working Team] Gallatin County 3-13 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 3.8 WILDFIRE HISTORY Gallatin County has a long history of wildfires from small to large. The extent of damages often depends on the proximity to the WUI, fire spread rates, and the effectiveness of suppression and mitigation measures. The history of wildfires can be difficult to compile because the various firefighting entities involved and a variety of recordkeeping measures over the years. The following list chronicles several of the critical / severe wildfire events that have occurred in the county over the last 30 years. June – November 1988 - Greater Yellowstone Fires. Numerous fires throughout Yellowstone National Park raged through the entire summer and well into the fall of 1988. Some of these fires extended into portions of Gallatin County. The fires covered 2.3 million acres, employed an estimated 25,000 firefighters, and cost nearly $120 million for fire suppression. One firefighter, and one pilot, were killed and structure losses were estimated at $3 million, mostly within Yellowstone National Park. August 2001 – Fridley Fire. Lightning ignited the Fridley Fire on August 19 near Fridley Creek in the Custer- Gallatin National Forest. The fire doubled in size on August 22 and displayed "extreme" behavior on August 23, when high winds caused it to double in size again. Montana Executive Order 20-01, issued on August 25, 2001, declared a state of emergency in Gallatin County and other locations across the state and mobilized state resources and the National Guard to fight the wildfires. On August 31, three members of a firefighting helicopter crew were killed on a maintenance flight when a bucket line tangled with a rotor, causing the helicopter to crash three miles south of Emigrant in Park County. The Fridley Fire was contained on September 13, 2001. In all, 26,373 acres burned from this fire and firefighting costs totaled over $11 million with 1,261 personnel, 50 pieces of heavy equipment, and 14 helicopters used. Fortunately, no structures were lost. This was a significant fire for Gallatin County because the City of Bozeman watershed, which is the primary the drinking water supply for th city, was threatened. September 2001 - Purdy Fire. Following the Fridley Fire by just a few weeks, the Purdy Fire ignited on September 26th in the upper Wilson Creek drainage southeast of Gallatin Gateway. By September 28, the fire had burned over 4,000 acres and caused the evacuation of over 50 homes. September 2009 - Flaming Arrow Fire. Winds re-ignited the remnants of a controlled burn into a fast- moving grass fire in the Flaming Arrow subdivision just south of Bridger Bowl. The fire burned mostly on private land and threatened about 25 homes. The fire was 100 percent contained after burning approximately 250 acres over a four-day period. June 2012 - Bear Trap Fire. A human-caused fire that was later determined to be arson, burned 15,500 acres in the Bear Trap Canyon area along the Madison River west of Bozeman. The estimated value of property lost in the fire, including one home, crops, pastures, fences, a vehicle, eight horses and electrical transmission lines totaled more than $3.8 million. Approximately $1.25 million was spent in suppression costs and involved over 200 firefighters. August – September 2012 – Millie Fire. Burned 10,515 acres in the Storm Castle Creek drainage, approximately 20 miles southwest of Bozeman. The fire was not fully contained for nearly one month, and initially threatened to cross over into the Hyalite Creek drainage where it could potentially have affected a drinking water source for the City of Bozeman as well as other impacts to the heavily used Hyalite Reservoir recreation area. The fire caused closures of Hyalite Canyon, Leverich Canyon, and Sourdough Canyon (Bozeman Creek) for much of its duration. Gallatin County 3-14 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan October 2015 - Cottonwood Gulch Fire. This fire was accidentally started by a landowner’s vehicle in the Cottonwood Gulch area north of Manhattan. The fire burned approximately 8,300 acres and one outbuilding before being fully contained. August 2016 -Maple Fire. The Maple Fire was detected on the evening of August 8, 2016 by smoke jumper aircraft flying over Yellowstone. The cause was determined to be lightning. The southwest perimeter of the fire burned within 3.5 miles of West Yellowstone. Over 230 personnel were assigned to the fire at its peak. The fire burned over 45,000 acres of timber and short grass. While the Maple Fire threatened a small portion of Gallatin County, including West Yellowstone and areas immediate north along Highway 191, it did not burn any land within the county. July – October 2018 – Bacon Rind Fire. The Bacon Rind Fire was detected on July 20th and continued to burn for over two months at varied intensity. The 5,232-acre fire was located approximately 20 miles south of Big Sky along the west side of Highway 191, within both Yellowstone National Park and CGNF-Lee Metcalf Wilderness, in an area that had not burned in the last 150 years. There are numerous meadows and forest breaks in the fire area, which, along with favorable weather and climatic conditions and lack of drought, reduced the potential of strong fire behavior and spread. The incident management approach allowed the fire to potentially clean out dead and downed trees and help restore a healthy ecosystem. Post-fire conditions will be conducive to new growth and create great habitat for wildlife, while reducing the potential for a future large fire. September 2018 - Horseshoe Fire. This fire burned 1,223 acres in the Horseshoe Hills east of Clarkston. The fire began on Monday afternoon, Sept. 10th and was declared 100% contained on Saturday, Sept. 15th. Several structures were lost to this fire including three primary residences, two secondary residences, and several outbuildings [GCEM website, Horseshoe Fire Update, 9/14/18 – 9:30am]. Within the last decade (2008-2018), the vast majority of wildfires in Gallatin County were less than 10 acres in size (Class C and smaller, NWCG). In fact, there were only five fires larger than 1,000 acres (Class F, NWCG) in the county during this period: Millie Fire (2012), Bean Canyon Fire (2012), Cottonwood Gulch Fire (2015), Bacon Rind Fire (2018), and Horseshoe Fire (2018). There were, however, five additional fires that exceeded 1,000 acres in size just outside the county boundary: Bear Trap 2 Fire (Madison County, 2012; the east boundary of this fire extended into Gallatin County), Copper City Fire (Broadwater County, 2013), Eustis Fire (Broadwater County, 2015), Fawn Fire (Yellowstone National Park, 2016), and Maple Fire (Yellowstone National Park, 2016). Figure 3-10 provides a map of wildfire history in Gallatin County for the period 2008-2018. Some of these mapped events are not actually wildfires but rather local incidents that became extended fire events (e.g., Bear Trap Fire, 2012). Generally, across the CGNF land base, which includes Gallatin County, less than five percent of unplanned ignitions grow into larger fires (Class F: 1,000 acres or more, but less than 5,000 acres; and Class G: 5,000 acres or more), primarily due to extreme weather and wind conditions driving fire growth. Many occurrences of the smaller fire sizes (0.1 acre – 10 acres) shown on Figure 3-10 were not actual wildfires but rather unplanned ignitions that were reported by USFS and/or contained by initial attack resources, as documented by USFS-CGNF in the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS). The National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG), Glossary of Terms, Accessed from website April, 2019: https://www.nwcg.gov/term/glossary/size-class-of-fire Gallatin County 3-15 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 3-11. Location and Fire Size Class of Wildfires in Gallatin County, 2008-2018 15000 – 50000 acres 2008-2018 (2008-2015) Gallatin County 4-1 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 4 WILDFIRE RISK ASSESSMENT 4.1 OVERVIEW Wildfire risk is a measure of both the probability and consequences of uncertain future wildfire events (Thompson et al., 2016). For any location within Gallatin County, wildfire risk depends on the likelihood of a fire occurring there, the expected intensity of the fire, and the vulnerability of resources or assets of value at that location. Fire scientists describe these three components of risk using a triangle where the sides are likelihood, intensity, and susceptibility. These three factors, and the resultant wildfire risk, vary across the county. This section of the CWPP describes tools currently used to assess wildfire risk in Gallatin County. The results of the risk assessment provide spatial context and inform where different wildfire management and mitigation strategies are most effective. Components of the wildfire risk triangle (from Scott et al., 2013 With an understanding of the components that contribute to wildfire risk and application of a coordinated and collaborative planning effort, Gallatin County and other stakeholders can take steps to influence each side of the risk triangle in different ways. For example, prevention measures that reduce human-caused fires can reduce the likelihood of fire occurrence, particularly in areas of human activity. Vegetation treatments focused on reducing fuel loads can reduce the intensity of fires that do occur, and efforts to reduce the flammability of building materials and increase defensible space around structures and communities can reduce susceptibility of homes and other structures to wildfire. 4.2 LANDSCAPE LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT The methodology used for wildfire risk analysis utilizes data that is representative of landscape-scale processes. Maps of fire likelihood and intensity can be used together to represent relative wildfire hazard for a given location. Computer simulation modeling of hypothetical wildfires provides a sound and scientifically defensible means of mapping wildfire likelihood and potential intensity. Fire models use weather data from long-term stations in the county, along with detailed spatial data depicting topography and aspects of vegetation that characterize wildland fuels to simulate fire spread across the landscape from semi-random ignition points. Simulations can be run for a plethora of statistically possible weather scenarios and thousands of iterations of a whole fire season using a model called FSim (Finney et al., 2011). Thompson, M.P., T. Zimmerman, D. Mindar, and M. Taber. 2016. Risk Terminology Primer: Basic Principles and a Glossary for the Wildland Fire Management Community. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-349. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/50912 Scott, J.H., M.P. Thompson, and D.E. Calkin. 2013. A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-315. https://www.fs.fed.us/rmrs/publications/wildfire-risk-assessment-framework-land-and-resource-management Finney, Mark A.; McHugh, Charles W.; Grenfell, Isaac C.; Riley, Karin L.; Short, Karen C. 2011. A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 25: 973- 1000. https://www.fs.fed.us/rmrs/publications/simulation-probabilistic-wildfire-risk-components-continental-united-states Gallatin County 4-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan The outputs from FSim include maps of the annual probability of fire occurrence and the most likely intensity at a very fine scale. This information can be used to support decisions related to wildfire suppression, fuel management planning, and resource allocation decisions. It is also critical for developing land and resource management plans. 4.2.1 Wildfire Simulation and Mapping A regional, landscape-level risk analysis, completed by Pyrologix LLC (Gilbertson-Day, J., et al., 2017) using the Fsim model, was utilized to evaluate wildfire likelihood and intensity. Specific results of this modeling work for Gallatin County were made available for use in this CWPP by USFS Region 1 (Jessica Haas, personal comm.). The raw outputs from the model are raster, or pixel-based, datasets that divide the landscape into evenly sized square cells, each 180 meters (583 ft) on a side. To summarize the raster FSim results and the corresponding fire hazard indices to a common mapping unit, fine-scale watershed polygons, referred to as catchments, were utilized from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and US Geological Survey (USGS) National Hydrography Dataset Plus, version 2 (https://www.epa.gov/waterdata/nhdplus-national-hydrography-dataset-plus). Displaying the results by summary polygons improves data understanding and allows for broad-scale patterns to emerge that may otherwise be missed in raw pixel datasets. There are 4,864 catchments that intersect the Gallatin County boundary plus the extra-county areas included to capture the Big Sky, Three Forks and Willow Creek fire jurisdictions. The resulting catchment and partial catchment summary unit polygons range in size from 0.0009 to 96.39 km2, and average 1.67 km2. 4.2.1.1 Fire Likelihood Fire likelihood, or burn probability (BP), is the Fsim-modeled annual likelihood that a wildfire will burn a given point or location. It is calculated as the number of times a given pixel burns during a simulation divided by the total number of iterations and represents a true annual burn probability that considers all possible weather scenarios. This methodology provides a long-term perspective on the relative likelihood of fire for any location in the county in any given year. To produce a map of relative wildfire likelihood for Gallatin County, the average BP for each catchment was calculated, and those averages were classified those into four classes of low, moderate, high and very high (Figure 4-1). The classes are relative to the distribution of catchment averages only within Gallatin County and are based on quartiles. Therefore, the high and very high classes represent all catchments with an average BP value above the county median. The average BP for catchments ranges from 0 to 0.0098, with a mean of 0.0021. Thus, a given catchment has about a 1 in 476 chance of burning in any given year. In general, wildfire likelihood is highest on forested, middle- to upper-elevation sites including: 1) the east flank of the Bridger Mountains across Bridger Canyon to the east and into the Bangtail Mountains; 2) the Gallatin Front along the south end of the Gallatin Valley; and 3) the southern portion of the county, including the Gallatin and Madison ranges and areas around Big Sky, extending south to Hebgen Basin and the area southwest of West Yellowstone. Areas with low burn probability include: 1) irrigated agricultural lands within the Gallatin Valley, predominantly south of I-90; 2) small areas above treeline in the Hyalite Mountains and Spanish Peaks; and 3) part of Hebgen Basin, particularly the northeast side of Hebgen Lake. Gilbertson-Day, J., Scott, J.H., Vogler, K.C., and Brough, A. 2017. Northern Region Wildfire Risk Assessment: methods and results. Internal report to USFS Region 1; unpublished. Gallatin County 4-3 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 4-1. Relative Wildfire Likelihood for Gallatin County Low (< 0.0010) Mod. (0.0010 – 0.0021) High (0.0021 – 0.0042) V. High (0.0042-0.0098) Relative Wildfire Likeliho Gallatin County 4-4 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan It is important to restate that the four wildfire likelihood classes represent a relative distribution within the county. When mapped on a standard national scale for burn probability (Figure 4-2), it is apparent that the entire county has a low to moderate burn probability (mean BP values < 0.01 for all catchments). Figure 4-2. Annual Burn Probability – National Scale for Gallatin County Gallatin County 4-5 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 4.2.1.2 Fire Intensity The FSim model can be used to distribute burn probability into wildfire intensity levels and generate probability estimates of a specific flame length class when fire burns a given pixel. Conditional Flame Length (CFL) represents the average fire intensity for each pixel from many simulated fires. An averaged CFL value is calculated for each catchment from individual, pixel-level CFL values. The map of relative wildfire intensity for the county was created by grouping the averaged catchment CFLs into four classes (Figure 4-3). In this case, the classes are based on standard flame length categories of 0 to 2 feet, 2 to 4 feet, 4 to 6 feet, and 6 feet and greater. The average flame lengths for catchments range from 0 to 41 feet, with a mean of 3.87 feet. Areas with the highest potential fire intensity in the county are primarily mid-elevation watersheds with higher fuel loads. Within Gallatin County these areas include: the Clarkston/Horseshoe Hills; much of the Bridger Mountain range, Bridger Canyon, and the Bangtail Mountains; Bear, Hyalite and Sourdough Canyons south of Bozeman; Trail Creek Rd. area; and portions of the Madison and Gallatin ranges south of Big Sky. Conversely, high elevation areas generally have lower fire intensity due to lesser fuel loads (e.g., areas at or above treeline), and maintenance of higher soil and vegetation moisture levels into the summer season. Most of the Gallatin Valley also exhibits lower fire intensity due to limited fuel loads (brush, grasses) and the presence of large areas of irrigated crops. 4.2.1.3 Relative Wildfire Hazard The likelihood and intensity sides of the wildfire risk triangle can be integrated to represent wildfire hazard. Thus, relative wildfire hazard is calculated by multiplying burn probability by the conditional flame length. Hazard values were determined at the pixel scale and then summarized by determining an average hazard value for each catchment. Following a similar approach as fire likelihood, the average hazard values for catchments were grouped into four classes based on quartiles of the hazard distribution across the county. The actual numeric values of hazard are less directly interpretable than BP or CFL, however they do provide a relative measure of fire hazard at a landscape scale. Figure 4-4 provides a map of relative wildfire hazard for Gallatin County. When comparing all three wildfire risk mapping products, the influence of both fire likelihood and fire intensity are evident in the relative wildfire hazard map. Similar to the likelihood mapping, the greatest wildfire hazard is found in the mid- to upper-elevation, forested areas of the county including: Horseshoe Hills; nearly the entire Bridger Mountain range, Bridger Canyon, and Bangtail Mountains; the Gallatin Front and Trail Ck. area south/southeast of Bozeman; and most of the county from the Big Sky area south, with the exception of some areas immediately surrounding Hebgen Lake. 4.2.2 Susceptibility and Risk Information about susceptibility (or vulnerability) of specific assets is more difficult to map. The Fsim analysis completed by Pyrologix does not provide enough information to adequately represent the susceptibility of communities to wildfire. This analysis did develop abstract estimates of susceptibility (known as response functions) for a variety of natural resources and built assets, but the focus of that assessment was on setting land management and wildfire management priorities on national forest lands. Gallatin County 4-6 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 4-3. Burn Intensity based on Potential Flame Length for Gallatin County. Gallatin County 4-7 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 4-4. Relative Wildfire Hazard for Gallatin County. Gallatin County 4-8 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan The response functions developed in that analysis estimated negative impacts to communities at all levels of fire intensity, but these impacts are vaguely defined and not specific for different types of structures. While this information provides some insights into wildfire risk, it does not facilitate a thorough mapping of risk across the county. In future efforts, susceptibility could be evaluated at multiple scales to facilitate calculation of wildfire risk metrics in and around developed areas in the county. At a community or neighborhood scale, factors similar to those used in the Pyrologix assessment could be used to develop community-level susceptibility ratings. The rating areas could be watersheds, like the catchments used to determine and map fire hazard indices; however, the areas could be more meaningful if they represent community or neighborhood boundaries used for planning and fire response purposes. Within each rating area, factors such as ingress/egress, distance to nearest fire station (or average response time), local water supply (e.g., streams, lakes, storage tanks/hydrants), and structure density could inform integrated ratings of community susceptibility to wildfire of different intensities. At the parcel level, assessments of individual structures that evaluate factors such as building materials, defensible space, and fuel loads on the property can inform susceptibility at a much finer scale. As with broader scale assessments, susceptibility ratings at the parcel scale should consider wildfire of different intensity levels. The Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation (DNRC) has developed a program using software developed for the state of Montana by the Intterra Group (Situation Analyst) which may be useful to fire districts in supporting this task. Combined with susceptibility information at either of the scales described above, the likelihood and intensity data can be used to calculate relative wildfire risk to entire communities or individual parcels. With spatial data for all three sides of the wildfire risk triangle, a metric called Net Value Change can be calculated that accounts for the risk posed by wildfire at different intensities for any location on the landscape. At the community or landscape scale, the Net Value Change metric, and the component information used to calculate it, can support the prioritization and planning of specific community-level mitigation through vegetation management and local land use planning and policy. At the parcel scale, the same information can support landowners in making the right decisions to make their property fire safe. 4.2.3 Improve Risk Assessment Information The importance of high quality, current risk assessment information is critical to the success of this planning effort. Data used in the risk assessment must have adequate quality and resolution to facilitate accurate modeling of the risks. Assessment of wildfire risk also requires detailed, accurate information on development patterns in the WUI, changes in fire suppression resources and methods, and the effects of recent fires. The following steps should be taken to improve the risk assessment analysis and information: 1. Resulting landscape changes from the 2018 wildfire season should be incorporated into an updated wildfire risk assessment. This would require extensive field work and data analysis. 2. Compile parcel-level assessment data to inform and complete risk assessment, increase first responder information, and encourage public engagement. Parcel-level assessment data would not only provide the susceptibility information required for a complete risk assessment, but also provide valuable information for fire districts and residents to guide private property mitigation efforts. http://dnrc.mt.gov/divisions/forestry/fire-and-aviation/fire-prevention-and-preparedness/home-fire-risk Gallatin County 4-9 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 4.2.4 Risk Assessment Summary The 2017 wildfire season was one of the worst fire seasons in Montana history, with the highest number of acres burned in over a century. In 2017, a total of 1,366,498 acres burned in Montana (NIFC, 2018, www.nifc.gov). Gallatin County was fortunate in 2017 and did not experience a major wildfire that season. Nonetheless, fuels mapping should be updated to facilitate analysis of current wildfire risk based on the most recent information. Gallatin County 5-1 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 5 A COHESIVE STRATEGY APPROACH IN GALLATIN COUNTY 5.1 OVERVIEW The National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy “Cohesive Strategy” (USDA, USDOI, 2014) is a strategic push to work collaboratively among all stakeholders and across all landscapes, using best science, to make meaningful progress towards the three goals: / Resilient Landscapes / Fire-Adapted Communities / Safe and Effective Wildfire Response The planning process for this CWPP includes integration with the National Fire Plan, HFRA, Disaster Mitigation Act, and Cohesive Strategy, all of which promote local collaborative processes. Goals for restoring resilient landscapes, improving wildland fire response, and creating fire-adapted communities must work within the bounds of local budgets, personnel, and equipment. The efforts and success of the Gallatin County CWPP hinge on the funding and expertise of the local fire management districts and agencies as well as the cooperative efforts of landowners to empower local communities and citizens to pursue and implement projects that protect people, property, and infrastructure from wildland fire without diminishing the private property rights of land/asset owners within Gallatin County. The guiding principle for this strategy is: to engage Gallatin County residents, communities, businesses, non-profits, and local, state, and federal governments to empower each other to prepare for wildfire through: / Community engagement and develop awareness of community roles in preparing for wildfire; / Effective administration of wildfire hazard mitigation grant programs that leverage additional resources for implementation; / Hazard risk assessments; and, / Strategic, efficient, and effective fuels treatments. 5.1.1 Objectives The following objectives are presented to define the Cohesive Strategy in Gallatin County and provide a roadmap for implementation. 1. Engage citizens in the challenges of wildfire preparedness in Gallatin County using the tools and guiding principles set forth by the Fire Adapted Communities Learning Network (FACLN). 2. Seek out, encourage, and empower local community leaders in the wildfire preparedness roles of business, fire response, homeowners, land managers, and local government at multiple scales across Gallatin County. The Cohesive Strategy’s Vision for the next century is: To safely and effectively extinguish fire when needed; use fire where allowable; manage our natural resources; and as a nation, to live with wildland fire. Gallatin County 5-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 3. Determine areas at risk to wildfire and establish/prioritize mitigation projects that utilize both conventional and alternative treatment methods to protect people, homes, infrastructure, state and federal listed species, and natural resources throughout Gallatin County. 4. Improve the ability of fire departments/districts/service areas to provide emergency fire response for the residents of Gallatin County through improved resources, training, and equipment. 5. Through strategic planning, develop and implement policies or protection measures that discourage further unmitigated development in high fire risk areas. 6. Implement vegetation management and other types of projects that promote the natural fire regime appropriate to the location for the benefit of the ecosystem and to lessen the risk of uncharacteristic wildland fire occurrences. 7. Promote recognition and utilization of the Gallatin County CWPP, empower local leadership and help leverage resources and opportunities to achieve shared goals without reducing the autonomy of individual communities and residents. 8. Provide direction through specific wildland fire prevention or protection action items to all members of the community to encourage individual responsibility including residents and homeowners, fire and emergency responders, forest and land managers, civic and community leaders, and designers and developers. Each of the following sections provides an overview of the topic, local information, and strategies and resources to address the goal. Specific actions are provided in the Action Table (Section 6.3). 5.2 RESTORING AND MAINTAINING RESILIENT LANDSCAPES IN GALLATIN COUNTY Through fire suppression and human development, coupled with a changing climate, the interaction of terrestrial ecosystems and wildland fire has been significantly altered over time. Restoring landscapes to a resilient state and promoting fire’s natural role in ecosystems where appropriate must be an integral part of increasing the county’s resilience to wildfire and becoming fire-adapted. An ecosystem-based approach to fire management that incorporates prescribed fire, mechanical thinning, and other vegetation management practices in overall land management planning objectives is important to both achieve desired fire effects and mitigate undesirable fire effects on the ecosystem and the built environment. Post- wildfire recovery is an important component in resiliency to ensure that any negative fire effects that impact the ecosystem and community can be minimized. With a diverse land ownership across the county, restorative land management will require a collaborative effort among multiple stakeholders. 5.2.1 Ecology/Ecosystem-Based Fire Management Restoration and maintenance strategies should align with the Cohesive Strategy, as outlined below, and integrate the following goals: / Where allowed and feasible, manage wildfire for resource objectives and ecological purposes to restore and maintain fire-adapted ecosystems and achieve fire-resilient landscapes, including the importance of the high-intensity fire regime component. / Restore forest processes that are currently under-represented in the landscape, compared to historical conditions, including low- and mixed-severity fire regimes. Gallatin County 5-3 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan / Maintain and promote the growth of specific large tree species, which are also under- represented, across the landscape. / Control and eradicate invasive and noxious weeds. 5.2.2 Fuel Treatments for Landscapes (Public and Private) Healthy, thriving ecosystems are less vulnerable to extreme wildfires that can devastate watersheds, destroy wildlife habitat, and risk lives. Healthy ecosystems can adapt to climate change, invasive species, and insect infestations. In many areas, aggressive fire suppression has limited the extent wildland fires leaving forests and grasslands crowded with flammable vegetation. Climate change has made fire seasons longer and droughts and insect infestations worse. Entire landscapes are now vulnerable to devastating, extreme wildfires. Thinning, prescribed fires, and managing naturally caused wildfires to achieve natural resource management objectives can help prevent extreme wildfires with minimal impacts to air quality while smoke from extreme wildfires may pose significant risks to public health and safety. The USFS is working with partners to restore healthy, resilient, fire-adapted ecosystems. Restoring ecosystems includes thinning crowded forests and using prescribed fire to prevent the buildup of flammable vegetation that feeds extreme wildfires. Assessments of more than 1,400 fuel treatments since 2006 have shown that they are effective in reducing both the cost and damage from wildfires. In certain locations, when and where conditions are right, naturally caused wildfires can be managed to perform their natural role in controlling fuel buildup, rejuvenating vegetation, and restoring ecosystems that benefit from fire. Table 5-1 provides a list of proposed and recently completed USFS fuels reduction projects in Gallatin County. The USFS will continue to work with partners to identify additional areas for fuels treatment that meet the goals of this CWPP. Table 5-1. Proposed and Recently Completed USFS Fuels Reduction Projects (USFS, Custer-Gallatin N.F. 1) Project Name Proposed Areas (Acres) Legal Location Burn (Y/N) Implementation Date Gallatin Canyon East 2022 South Plateau 2021 North Bridgers Forest Health Project 2,560 T1N, R6E & R7E; T1S, R6E & R7E Y July 2019 Bozeman Municipal Watershed Project 4,700 T3S, R5E & R6E Y late-2019 (tentative), continue 5 – 12 yrs. North Hebgen Multiple Resource Project 5,900 T11S, R4E & R5E; T12S, R4E & R5E; T13S, R5E N begin 2019, continue for 8 – 12 years Lonesome Wood Vegetation Mgmt. 2 Project 2,575 T11S, R3E; T12S, R3E; T12S, R4E; T13S, R4E Y (potential on 325 ac.) began 2017, to continue for 6 - 8 years Rendezvous Ski Trails Forest Thinning Project 250 T13S, R5E; T14S, R5E N 2015 (fall) – 2018 (fall) South Bridger Interface Project 250 T1N, R7E; T1S, R7E N 2015 (completed) Hebgen Basin Fuels Reduction Project 1,610 T12S, R5E; T13S, R5E Y 2011 (completed) 1 Accessed from Custer-Gallatin National Forest Project Archive list on Jan. 8, 2019. URL: https://www.fs.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsinternet/cs/projects/custergallatin/landmanagement/projects?archive=1&sortby=1 Gallatin County 5-4 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Lands owned and managed by state (DNRC) and municipal (City of Bozeman) entities have also been proposed for forest health and fuels reduction projects. Table 5-2 provides a list of proposed and recently completed projects on state and municipal land. Table 5-2. Proposed and Recently Completed Fuels Reduction Projects on State and Municipal Land Project Name Proposed Areas (Acres) Legal Location Burn (Y/N) Implementation Date Limestone West Timber Sale Project (DNRC-Bozeman Unit) 448 (proposed in Final EIS, modified Alternative A) T2S, R6E; T3S, R6E N Conservation license and 25-year logging deferral issued by DNRC in April 2019, effectively cancelling the project Bear Canyon Timber Sale Project (DNRC-Bozeman Unit) 674 T2S, R6E; T3S, R6E N 2011 Sourdough Creek Municipal Watershed Fuels Management Project (City of Bozeman) 400 T3S, R6E N 2019 The 2006 Gallatin County CWPP recommended that fuels mitigation work be conducted on private property, and suggested the county identify landowners that are willing to create defensible space or a general wildfire mitigation area as a demonstration project. It was further suggested that efforts be coordinated with the CGNF and the DNRC. No specific areas or projects were identified on privately-owner lands; however, moving forward the following general fuel treatment guidance is recommended: / Design and prioritize fuel treatments (prescribed fire and mechanical treatments) to reduce fire intensity, structure ignition, and negative wildfire impacts to identified assets. / Where feasible, implement strategically placed fuel treatments to interrupt fire spread across landscapes. / Use and expand fuel treatments involving mechanical, biological, or chemical methods where economically feasible and sustainable, and where they align with landowner objectives. / Reduce the risk of wildfire by removing fuels, especially small-diameter trees, while maintaining forest structure to protect ecosystem components. 5.2.3 Prescribed Fire Prescribed fire is a planned fire used to meet management objectives. Following many years of fire exclusion, an ecosystem that needs periodic fire becomes unhealthy. Trees are stressed by overcrowding; fire-dependent species disappear; and flammable fuels build up and become hazardous. The right fire at the right place at the right time: / Reduces hazardous fuels, protecting human communities from extreme fires; / Minimizes the spread of pest insects and disease; / Removes unwanted species that threaten species native to an ecosystem; / Provides forage for game; / Improves habitat for threatened and endangered species; / Recycles nutrients back to the soil; and / Promotes the growth of trees, wildflowers, and other plants. Gallatin County 5-5 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan The USFS manages prescribed fires and even some wildfires to benefit natural resources and reduce the risk of unwanted wildfires in the future. The agency also uses hand tools and machines to thin overgrown sites in preparation for the eventual return of fire. 5.2.4 Post-Fire Effects and Recovery Several post-fire outcomes can result from either wildfire or prescribed burn events. Prescribed fire planning goals and objectives are typically defined by desired ecosystem or hazard reduction results. These goals and objectives should be clearly stated in the prescribed fire plan and a monitoring program should be in place to measure the post-fire conditions. Wildfire events can result in significant post-fire impacts – both positive and negative. Risk assessments can provide guidance in anticipating post-wildfire impacts, mitigating these impacts before a fire occurs and reducing recovery efforts. The development of a post-wildfire recovery plan, based on the anticipated impacts, can help the communities affected become more resilient to wildfire. 5.3 PROMOTING A FIRE-ADAPTED GALLATIN COUNTY Promoting fire-adapted communities focuses on preventing, preparing for, and protecting lives and properties during wildfire events and ensuring a full recovery. The National Wildfire Coordinating Group defines a fire-adapted community as “A human community consisting of informed and prepared citizens collaboratively planning and taking action to safely coexist with wildland fire.” More fully, a fire-adapted community is a knowledgeable, engaged community where actions of residents and agencies in relation to infrastructure, buildings, landscaping and the surrounding ecosystem lessen the need for extensive protection actions and enable the community to safely accept fire as part of the surrounding landscape. There are many paths to becoming fire-adapted, such as through education, mitigation, policies, and regulations. Fire-adapted communities may implement established national programs, such as Firewise USA TM and Ready, Set, Go!, develop a CWPP, enhance local capacity, conduct fuel reduction and forest management activities, and use codes and ordinances to regulate development in fire-prone areas. In Gallatin County, the Montana State University (MSU) Extension office administers several projects that are targeted at creating fire-adapted communities and provides information, materials and short-courses designed to reduce wildfire risk and promote forest stewardship. Wildfire Preparedness Kits are available to provide individuals and agricultural producers with several resources regarding preparing for, responding to, and recovering from wildfire. Through education, fire-adapted communities realize that living with wildfire is an ongoing process, not an event, and continually work in their areas to manage vegetation, improve response for first responders, and be ready to evacuate at any time. Gallatin County 5-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan The more actions a community takes, the more fire-adapted it becomes. However, because communities have limited resources, strategic identification of actions is necessary to best leverage fire adaptation at the local level. Promoting a fire-adapted Gallatin County also requires alignment with activities for restoring resilient landscapes and improving wildfire response. 5.3.1 Community Values Gallatin County has many community values that could be vulnerable to wildfire. These values at risk, which should be considered when devising plans for fire-adapted communities, include: / Homes, businesses, and commercial areas; / Communication and power generation facilities and power transmission lines; / Transportation corridors and airports; / Community water supply areas (watersheds), creeks, rivers, and lakes; / Forested areas and open space; / Aquatic and terrestrial wildlife; / Air quality, public health and life safety; / Local, state, and federal recreational lands; / Historic sites and cultural areas; and, / Critical infrastructure and facilities (i.e., hospitals, schools, etc.). Gallatin County’s values at risk are further detailed in other local plans, including the 2018 update to the county’s Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP), which is the parent document to this CWPP. The Gallatin County Growth Policy and the City of Bozeman Community Plan discuss local values at risk, including public infrastructure, parks, trails, wildlife, fisheries and cultural resources. 5.3.2 Community Development and Growth Trends Over the last decade, Gallatin County has experienced unprecedented growth, resulting in rapid changes in land use, ownership, and development patterns. The county’s population has increased 25% between 2010 and 2018 (U.S. Census, 2019), and it has more than doubled since 1990. To address current and anticipated changes, the county must consider how wildfire can be further integrated into planning and development decisions. The following examples of growth trends and patterns highlight these issues: / Transition of agricultural, forest and riparian lands to developed land is expanding the WUI. Development that is proposed in hazardous areas (as shown on the wildfire hazard maps) should incorporate strategies that reduce risk to structures and life safety. / Continued growth in seasonal and second-home markets, particularly in amenity and/or vacation-driven areas, including Big Sky, Bridger Canyon/Brackett Creek, Jackson Creek, Hebgen Basin, and edges of the Gallatin Valley (Gateway, Hyalite/Sourdough Canyon areas, Bear Canyon and Springhill area), can affect how stakeholders plan for local response needs and resources. Community outreach and engagement with part-time residents and visitors must accommodate unique considerations such as seasonal schedules, population changes, or varying levels of awareness regarding wildfire concerns. Gallatin County 5-3 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Figure 5-1 (Headwaters Economics, 2018) shows changes in home construction within Gallatin County from 1990 – 2016. A quick review of these maps shows that home construction has increased substantially not only near population centers, but also in less-developed areas such as Big Sky, Bridger Canyon, and the Clarkston area. In the five-year period (2013-2018), the number of building inspections within the City of Bozeman more than doubled from 18,627 to 37,583 (City of Bozeman, 2019). This substantial increase in building activity within Bozeman is indicative of continued outward expansion of the city towards undeveloped lands and, due to potential increases in the building approval process timeline within city limits, may also result in increased development pressure in more rural areas of the county. Figure 5-1. Change in home construction within Gallatin County, 1990- 2016 (Headwaters Economics, 2018). 5.3.3 Increasing Community Fire Adaptation and Reducing Structural Ignitability Recent and future development changes, combined with an increase in wildfire risk, highlight the need for Gallatin County to develop strategies to plan for and adapt to wildfire. Strategies must consider a range of current and future community values, including existing and new homes, vulnerable populations, critical facilities and infrastructure, recreational amenities, and businesses. Strategies can take the form of new policies and regulations, education and outreach activities, or other actions that encourage community members to prepare for, and adapt to, future wildfire events. Headwaters Economics, 2018, Gallatin County’s Economy, Growth, and Open Space. https://headwaterseconomics.org/wp- content/uploads/Report-Gallatin-Countys-Economy.pdf. Accessed April 2019. 1990-2016 Gallatin County 5-4 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan The following strategies are focused on leveraging existing county documents and programs to increase their visibility across the county. The actions listed are also captured in the Action Table (Section 6.3). 5.3.3.1 Promote Implementation of WUI Policies and Regulations Important county and city planning documents already incorporate wildfire topics into their goals and actions, including the Gallatin County Growth Policy, City of Bozeman Community Plan, Belgrade Growth Policy, Gallatin Triangle Planning Study, and the 2018 update to the Gallatin County HMP. For example: / The Gallatin County Growth Policy, Chapter 3.14, Goal #1: Protect Human Life and Property from Natural Hazards, includes a policy to, “Consider the adopted Gallatin County Community Wildfire Protection Plan when reviewing development proposals.” Development is discouraged in areas prone to wildland fire, and mitigation of fire hazards such as creation of defensible space for each structure is encouraged prior to final plat approval. Section 5.2 of the Growth Policy also provides guidelines for the Evaluation of Subdivisions According to Primary Criteria, one of which includes the proposed subdivision’s susceptibility to wildfire. / The Bozeman Community Plan (2009) mentions the potential for increased risk of wildfire due to climate change. Appendix G: Environmental Quality and Critical Lands includes a section that discusses the WUI (Section G.1.8). It promotes an understanding of fire behavior, including fire intensity, vegetation characteristics, and building materials, and the need to keep these factors in mind when building structures in wildfire-prone areas. References are provided for preparing a CWPP. The Bozeman Fire Department coordinates with other fire departments in the valley through mutual aid agreements to address issues of regional concern such as the WUI. The City of Bozeman has been a participating jurisdiction in hazard mitigation planning and preparation of a countywide HMP since the initial plan was completed in 2006. The City was also a key participant in development of the initial Gallatin County CWPP in 2006. The Community Plan describes how planning mechanisms, such as subdivision regulations, can address future development parameters including defensible space, access, and water supply. Local codes also provide improved opportunities for public health, first- responder and community safety, and welfare. / The 2018 HMP update contains a goal to Reduce Impacts from Wildfire (Goal 1). The objectives under Goal 1 focus on: 1) reducing private losses in the WUI, 2) increasing the understanding of wildfire hazard areas, and 3) assisting property owners in completing mitigation measures. Specific projects identified include: 1) fuels mapping and reduction, 2) conducting individual WUI assessments, 3) developing defensible space requirements and subdivision regulations for wildfire/WUI areas, and 4) creating fire-adapted communities through implementation of programs such as Firewise. This CWPP update (2018) has been closely tied to the 2018 HMP update and is designated as an official Attachment (Attachment A) to the HMP. This CWPP leverages existing HMP goals to advance risk reduction by providing more detailed implementation guidance. CWPP actions are designed to build on current WUI community actions in the Growth Policies/Plans and 2018 HMP update. Specific CWPP actions to address development include: 1. Update the Gallatin County Growth Policy land use maps and local area plans, as needed and appropriate, using wildfire hazard area information to steer growth away from more hazardous areas. Gallatin County 5-5 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan / Incorporating tools such as the updated WUI map and wildfire hazard assessment maps during growth policy updates and implementation ensures consistency of information among plans and informs future policy decisions. 2. Utilize zoning and zoning districts to implement land use map updates and guide growth to more appropriate areas and away from more hazardous areas. / Using proactive strategies to guiding growth to appropriate locations helps reduce risk to future neighborhoods and homes. 3. Utilize land conservation tools such as the open space bond to buffer developed areas from wildfire. / Creating land buffers between development and the natural environment makes it easier to manage vegetation near homes and neighborhoods and protect these homes during future wildfire events. 4. Adopt development/subdivision regulations that require best possible hazard mitigation to protect communities, neighborhoods, fire professionals, and properties/structures in the event of a wildfire. Propose updated development regulations that incorporate best practices, including changes to building code, zoning code, and subdivision regulations. / Evaluating the effectiveness of regulatory tools, such as the building code, subdivision regulations, and zoning regulations, helps determine whether additional fire protection measures are necessary at each applicable scale. This could include exploring the adoption of a wildland-urban interface code. The county risk assessment can be used to further inform this action. 5.3.3.2 Promote Wildfire Mitigation Strategy Education and Outreach Mitigation strategies are often most accepted when the public and stakeholders understand their effectiveness. For example, scientific tests on building construction identify which types of materials are most effective during ember storms. When the public understands this information, they are more likely to see the value in supporting building codes that include ignition-resistant construction requirements. Mitigation strategies are also effective in addressing existing development through education and outreach activities to help increase awareness and motivate voluntary actions. Activities can target residents and landowners, youth, industry professionals, and elected officials. Many education and outreach efforts are already underway by local, state, and federal stakeholders. For example, many of the local fire departments/districts host a variety of community outreach functions during the year (e.g., barbeques, pancake breakfasts) where a wide range of educational materials regarding wildfire preparation and safety are often available. Outside experts from various local (Gallatin County Extension), state (DNRC), and federal (USFS) agencies are often available at these functions to provide additional outreach to the public. These activities and types of information available can include: / Conducting free property assessments to help residents identify hazards; / Displaying up-to-date maps that show wildfire hazard areas and the WUI; / Providing current fire season forecasts or updates on any active wildfire events; / Promoting participation in Fire-Adapted Community programs to encourage neighborhood activities and local recognition; Gallatin County 5-6 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan / Delivering Ready, Set, Go! program messages to residents to help them prepare for wildfires and evacuations; and, / Working with local schools on youth education programs. Both the HMP update and various Growth Policy/Planning documents can also be used to message and promote the use of educational materials to residents and landowners in hazardous areas. Specific CWPP actions to enhance outreach and education include: 1. Engage with industry professionals on mitigation programs, activities, and opportunities to improve public education and outreach across neighborhoods and communities. / Many industry professionals, including insurance agents, realtors, developers, and builders, can play a critical part in understanding their role in educating other audiences in community fire adaptations. Working with these groups by providing specific resources and messaging materials can accelerate local efforts to reduce wildfire risk. 2. Update County Extension and Emergency Management websites with best practice wildfire education resources and materials. / Gallatin County Extension and Emergency Management can post the latest wildfire planning, protection and mitigation resources in the form of informational brochures, interactive maps that highlight local risk, educational videos, or other guides to help the public learn more about wildfire. Topics may include home construction and landscaping techniques, evacuation planning and preparedness, and parcel-level risk assessments. 3. Promote having neighborhoods and communities develop mitigation activities and evacuation plans through programs such as Firewise USA and Ready, Set, Go! / Risk reduction happens at multiple scales. Neighborhoods are encouraged to engage in mitigation planning. This can be through participation in national programs, such as Firewise USA or Ready, Set, Go! (supported through local agencies), and the development of local CWPPs or similar fire plans. 5.4 INCREASING WILDFIRE RESPONSE THROUGHOUT GALLATIN COUNTY The multiple agencies responsible for fire suppression have developed an excellent network of interagency support and cooperation. Generally, suppression resources have been able to respond to wildland fire occurrences with adequate resources using this system. However, some concern is expressed over the ability of this system to sustain itself in the face of climate change and the current trend of decreasing volunteer capacity, aging firefighters, and decreasing budgets. In addition to fire suppression resources available within the fire protection districts, seasonal wildland firefighters are available through USFS, DNRC, and the National Park Service (NPS). These resources are trained and equipped to fight wildland fire only; unlike the fire protection district resources, they are not trained or equipped to fight a structure fire. Gallatin County 5-7 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 5.4.1 Emergency Preparedness/ Evacuation Emergency evacuation procedures are the responsibility of local law enforcement agencies. During a wildfire, the Incident Commander (in coordination and with the approval of the agencies having jurisdiction) will recommend evacuation. Routes and locations of shelters/centers depend on fire location and numbers of affected individuals, and so must be made on a case-by-case basis at the time of the incident. 5.4.2 Ready, Set, Go! Program The Ready, Set, Go! Program seeks to develop and improve the dialogue between fire departments and the residents they serve. The program helps the fire service teach individuals who live in high-risk wildland fire areas—and the WUI—how to best prepare themselves and their properties against wildland fire threats. The program’s tenets help residents be Ready with preparedness understanding, be Set with situational awareness when fire season begins, and to Go early, when necessary, as fire threatens. The Ready, Set, Go! Program works in complementary and collaborative fashion with the Fire Adapted Communities Coalition and existing wildland fire public education efforts and amplifies their message to individuals about emergency preparedness and evacuation. Ready, Set, Go! provides educational and outreach materials to limited English speakers, standardizing the message and ensuring that information is accurate across languages. Figure 5-2 Ready, Set, Go! Infographic. 5.4.3 Primary Stakeholders and Response Areas 5.4.3.1 Fire Departments, Districts and Service Areas Most communities within Gallatin County are within the jurisdiction of one of the legally recognized, community-based rural fire districts, fire service areas, or a municipal fire department (refer to Table 5-3). Within the WUI Intermix areas there is often concurrent fire protection, with a local fire agency and the USFS both having jurisdiction. Of the 15 fire protection agencies across Gallatin County, only the Bozeman Fire Department has an all-paid staff. Big Sky, Central Valley, Hebgen Basin and Hyalite fire districts have a mix of paid and volunteer firefighters. The other districts rely completely on citizen volunteers to respond to structure fires, wildland fires, and other emergencies such as medical calls and vehicle accidents on the interstate or secondary roads within each jurisdiction. Gallatin County 5-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Table 5-3. List of fire departments, districts, and service areas in Gallatin County. Fire Dept., District or Service Area Communities Served Response Area (acres) Amsterdam Amsterdam, Churchill, Camp Ck. Road, area north of Hwy. 84 (MM 17-26) 56,795 Big Sky Big Sky Meadow/Mtn. Village, Moonlight/Spanish Peaks Clubs, Hwy. 191 (MM 43-61) 37,293 (incl. area in Madison Co.) Bozeman within city limits of Bozeman, I-90 (MM 304-309), Montana State University 12,873 Bridger Canyon Bridger Canyon (Hwy. 86 MM 4-17), Bridger Bowl, parts of Jackson Ck/Brackett Ck Rds. 26,071 Central Valley City of Belgrade, Hwy. 85 (Jackrabbit Ln.), I-90 (MM 292-304), Springhill/Rocky Mt. Rd., Gallatin R. (4 Corners-Central Park), E. Gallatin R. (Riverside-Dry Ck.), Dry Creek Rd., Bozeman-Yellowstone International Airport 117,718 Clarkston Clarkston, E. side of Missouri R. (Eustis north to Lombard), west side of Horseshoe Hills 15,333 Fort Ellis I-90 E. of Bozeman (MM 309-322), Bozeman Trail Rd., Bear & Kelly Canyon, Trail Ck Rd. 38,810 Gallatin Gateway Gallatin Gateway, Hwy. 191 (MM 61-Four Corners), area south of Hwy. 84 (MM 20-29), Cottonwood Rd. east from Hwy. 191 to Cottonwood Canyon, portions of Gooch Hill Rd. 67,917 Gallatin River Ranch residential ranch community in Horseshoe Hills, north side of Gallatin/E. Gallatin Rivers 7,475 Hebgen Basin W. Yellowstone, Hebgen & Quake Lakes basin with approx. borders of Hwy. 20 (south), Hwy 191 (east), Township 10-11S line (north), Madison Co. (west), & Idaho (southwest) 126,666 Hyalite areas south/west of Bozeman, from Triple Tree to Four Corners; also responds into Sourdough/Leverich/Hyalite Canyons and numerous county “islands” within Bozeman 29,431 Manhattan Town of Manhattan, I-90 (MM 283-292), Gallatin R./E. Gallatin R. north of T1N/T1S line 37,597 Sedan Sedan, Hwy. 86 (MM 22-31[Park County line]), east side of Flathead Pass 32,248 Three Forks City of Three Forks, Madison R. valley south to Black’s Ford, Headwaters St. Park, I-90 (MM 272-283), Note: district extends NW into Broadwater County from T3N to south 108,403 (incl. area in Broadwater Co.) Willow Creek Willow Creek, south/east side of Jefferson R., Sappington Jct., Note: district extends NW into Jefferson County 75,510 (incl. area in Jefferson Co.) County Fire All lands (private and state) outside of local fire districts/service areas or a municipal department, and which is not protected by the federal government (USFS or NPS) 268,344 5.4.4 Additional Stakeholders In addition to fire suppression resources available within the fire protection districts, wildland firefighters are available through the USFS and NPS. These resources are trained and equipped to fight wildland fire only; unlike the fire protection district resources, they are not trained or equipped to fight a structure fire. 5.4.5 Suppression Responsibilities When an unplanned wildland fire (wildfire) is discovered in Gallatin County, a fire response crew from a local fire response jurisdiction or a USFS ranger district may respond, depending on its location. The Gallatin County 911 Communications Center is the Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP) for the county. For wildfire incidents occurring on federal lands, the Bozeman Interagency Dispatch Center (BZC) leads communication with response resources. Each dispatch center utilizes the “closest forces” concept in wildland fire dispatch. This allows for the closest suppression resource to be sent, regardless of boundaries or jurisdictional responsibilities. This arrangement is particularly helpful at either end of the federally recognized fire season (typically mid-June through mid-September). When wildfires start early, as they did in 2000 (the first wildfire occurred on March 15), federal fire crews are not yet employed so it is the community-based firefighter who is often first on scene. Gallatin County 5-3 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 5.4.6 Interagency Agreements Through pre-established mutual aid agreements, all fire suppression resources in Gallatin County are authorized to leave their jurisdictional boundaries to aid a requesting agency partner. In addition, Montana statute allows these resources to assist throughout the state when needed/possible. This is primarily accomplished through the South Central Montana Zone Multi-Agency Coordinating Group (MAC), within the Northern Rockies Coordinating Group (NRCG), which allows all responsible jurisdictional agencies to coordinate resources and priorities throughout the South-Central Montana Zone during fire season. The South Central Zone MAC Group consists of representatives from: / CGNF; / National Park Service; / Gallatin County Fire Warden; / Montana DNRC; and, / Park County (MT). Automatic mutual aid agreements are also utilized between most Gallatin County agencies sharing boundaries. These agreements are triggered by verbal request, typically at the time of first dispatch. 5.4.7 Current Suppression Challenges and Limitations 5.4.7.1 Areas without Organized Fire Response Approximately 268,300 acres of private land in Gallatin County are located outside of an organized fire protection agency (i.e., local fire district or service area), a DNRC-mandated wildland fire protection district, or Affidavit lands. Under the terms of a cooperative agreement between the county commissioners and the State of Montana, the county has assumed fire suppression responsibility in these areas from the State. The County Fire Warden and Rural Fire Chief (one-and-the-same for purposes of this CWPP) is responsible for coordinating response to wildland fires that occur within these areas and has historically relied on mutual aid from adjacent fire districts and/or MT DNRC, through the Cooperative Fire Control Program (Co-op Program). Lands without fire protection are located throughout Gallatin County (Rural Fire Protection Operating Plan, 2015). Some of the larger examples include the following areas, where specific Response Plans have been developed: Spanish Creek, Norris, Horseshoe, Maudlow, Sedan, and islands of unprotected land surrounded by, or adjacent to, Bozeman city limits (primarily off Griffin and Bridger Drives). 5.4.7.2 Volunteer Firefighter Capacity The current national trend of a decreasing and aging pool of volunteer firefighters has been expressed as an increasing local concern for most department that rely on volunteer responders. Most departments can currently function adequately when faced with in-district emergencies. However, as county and regional wildland fires grow in frequency and size—increasing the need for solid mutual and automatic aid support—and compounded with the demand of other year-round response commitments (medical calls, structure fires, rescues, motor vehicle accidents)—the majority of these departments are unable to provide support to the desired level. Gallatin County 5-4 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 5.4.7.3 Response Area Commitment Many of the local fire jurisdictions are responsible for significant response areas, some extending into neighboring counties and many with multiple communities or values at risk. There is some concern regarding the capacity during heavy, multiple fire load scenarios that these resources are relied upon for mutual aid will be over-committed. 5.4.8 Improving Response Specific CWPP actions to improve wildfire response capabilities are: 1. Promote and support fire departments/districts to increase capacity and funding. Stakeholders and all levels of government should work together in developing a coordinated approach to increasing capacity and funding with respect to wildfire response. 2. Develop local Pre-Suppression Plans (“Pre-Plans”) to improve wildfire response effectiveness and strategy. A Pre-Plan is an intelligence packet that assists incident commanders, operations section chiefs, structural protection specialists, division supervisors, group supervisors, taskforce leaders, and strike team leaders in formulating a plan based on current conditions, forecast weather conditions, locations and maps of fixed resources (e.g., water supply, safety zones), and listings of additional resources and contact information. The main objective of the plans is to have a well-thought out strategy based on the conditions and deployment of resources before the fire occurs. Wildland firefighting and structural protection/defense requires judgment based on many years of actual firefighting experience, and must be responsive to actual, on the ground conditions. No amount of classroom training or simulations can prepare an individual for the leadership required during large, fast-moving fires, but preparing the available information in ways that can facilitate that leadership is key to effective wildfire response. Gallatin County 6-1 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 6 CWPP ACTION PLAN 6.1 OVERVIEW This chapter of the document focuses on putting the CWPP into action. The first section provides an overview of stakeholders associated with this CWPP to promote an understanding of the roles and responsibilities for each entity. The second section provides an action plan to guide stakeholder implementation activities. This ensures the CWPP process continues to move forward in a meaningful way. Finally, additional guidance on plan maintenance outlines key considerations to ensure the plan stays current and is updated regularly, so that it remains relevant into the future. 6.2 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT Each stakeholder in the CWPP shares a role, whether it be agency-, landowner-, or non-governmental organization-affiliated. The success of this CWPP requires the participation of all stakeholders to engage in understanding of their role and taking appropriate actions. 6.2.1 Residents and Homeowners Gallatin County’s local fire protection agencies cannot always protect everyone from wildfire, especially if homeowners haven’t taken responsibility for ensuring firefighters can safely work in the area. By creating a defensible space around individual homes and communities, reducing hazardous fuels in the surrounding area, and ensuring that access routes will support fire apparatus, homeowners can greatly increase the likelihood that their property will survive a wildland fire event. It is imperative that homeowners work with their neighbors and communities to increase safety and reduce risk for the greater protection of all. 6.2.2 Fire and Emergency Responders There are several resource and capability enhancements identified by the fire and emergency responders in Gallatin County that are related to response and treatment of defensible space, egress/ingress, capacity, equipment, and planning efforts (see Appendix A: Fire District and Department CWPP Surveys). Implementation of response action items will rely on either the isolated efforts of the rural fire districts or a concerted effort by Gallatin County to achieve equitable enhancements across all districts. 6.2.3 Civic and Community Leaders Wildfire mitigation efforts must be supported by a set of policies and regulations, where appropriate, as well as guidelines at the county and community levels that maintain a solid foundation for safety and consistency. They must also be supported by the public infrastructure, economy, and value system. Critical infrastructure refers to the communications, transportation, power lines, and water supply that service a region or a surrounding area. All these components are important to southwest Montana and to Gallatin County specifically. These critical networks are, by definition, a part of the WUI in the protection of people, structures, infrastructure, and unique ecosystems. Without supporting infrastructure, a community’s structures may be protected, but the economy and way of life lost. 6.2.4 Forest and Land Managers There are many land management issues associated with wildfire that can have lasting effects on natural resources as well as communities and local economy. In addition to the immediate responsibility of wildfire suppression, land managers at all levels; local, state, and Federal, must also be aware of and plan for the Gallatin County 6-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan long-term impacts and implications of wildland fire on the landscape. Undeveloped private and public lands serve many purposes and are highly valued for their ability to provide habitat for animals, recreational and hunting opportunities, timber resources, etc. Wildfire affects each of these values in different ways some of which are very direct such as loss of timber assets, but some are subtle and take place over long periods of time such as the loss of native seed sources due to repeated burning. Increasing cohesiveness of land management across boundary jurisdictions will reduce risk and increase efficiency. Table 6-1 identifies roles that community members at the local, state, and federal levels play in Gallatin County’s resilience to wildfire and risk reduction. Table 6-1. Overview of CWPP Stakeholder Roles Stakeholder Group Overview of Roles City, County, and Local Partners Elected Officials / Gallatin County Commission has jurisdiction and power to represent the county and has care of county property, management, and business concerns. / Gallatin County Sheriff is an elected position that has responsibility to enforce state and county laws and statutes. / The Bozeman city commission, and the city and town councils and mayors of Belgrade, Manhattan, Three Forks, and West Yellowstone are elected to represent citizens of those jurisdictions. Gallatin County Planning Department / County Planning and Community Development is responsible for long-range planning, administration of subdivision, zoning, and floodplain regulations, and coordination of community and economic development efforts. Local Fire Depts. and Fire Districts/Service Areas / Responsible for community fire response and protection services for local jurisdictions across Gallatin County. Gallatin County Rural Fire (“County Fire”) / Responsible for fire response and protection services on county lands that are outside of local fire agency (local fire dept./district/service area) or federal jurisdiction. Gallatin County Emergency Management / Coordinates interagency emergency response within Gallatin County and provides outreach, planning, and training for “all hazards” and all phases of emergency management – mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Gallatin City-County Health Department / Protects and promotes the health of county citizens and the environment, including air quality. Gallatin County residents, landowners, and community organizations / Responsible for personal property and engaging in community projects. / Community councils participate in planning process by facilitating communication between communities and local government. / Includes private landowners; and citizens/entities with large land holdings (e.g., Turner, Yellowstone Club) Gallatin County 6-3 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Non-governmental stakeholders / Includes stakeholders from Southwest Montana Building Industry Association, Gallatin Association of Realtors, and other industry professionals. / Volunteer organizations, resource conservation groups (e.g., Gallatin Conservation District, Greater Gallatin Watershed Council, Gallatin River Task Force), community development groups (e.g., HRDC, Big Sky Community Organization), Chambers of Commerce, utilities (Northwestern Energy), Gallatin Valley Land Trust, university partners, and other business entities. MSU Extension – Gallatin County / MSU Extension – Forestry, Natural Resources / Fire Adapted Communities Learning Network State Partners Montana Dept. of Natural Resources & Conservation / Protects lives, property, and natural resources from wildfire by providing safe and effective services to Montana’s citizens as well as leadership, coordination, and resources to the state’s wildfire organizations. FireSafe Montana / Private, non-profit organization coordinates and supports a statewide coalition of diverse interests working together to help Montanans make their homes, neighborhoods, and communities fire safe. Federal Partners U.S. Forest Service (USFS) / Manages land in Gallatin County within Custer- Gallatin National Forest (CGNF), Bozeman and Hebgen Ranger Districts, and a small portion of the Helena National Forest (HNF), Townsend Ranger District, in the northernmost extent of the county. Also manages USFS lands bordering Gallatin County: in Park County (CGNF, Bozeman, Gardiner and Yellowstone Ranger Districts); in Broadwater County (HNF, Townsend Ranger District); in Madison County (CGNF, Bozeman Ranger District, and Beaverhead- Deer Lodge National Forest, Madison Ranger District), and in Idaho (Caribou-Targhee National Forest, Ashton/Island Park Ranger District). U.S. Dept. of Interior, Bureau of Land Management / Manages public lands out of the Butte Field Office. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service / Administers environmental stewardship programs and services to guide conservation, development and management of national fish and wildlife resources. National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park / Manages land within Yellowstone National Park, a portion of which is located in southern Gallatin County. Gallatin County 6-4 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 6.3 ACTION PLAN The proposed action plan consists of categories that correspond to the three emphasis areas of the Cohesive Strategy, including 1) fire adapted communities; 2) fire resilient landscapes; and 3) response. Natural vegetation and habitat restoration activities are incorporated into fuels reduction projects. As part of the Cohesive Strategy and intent of the CWPP, an additional category was added, 4) Risk Assessment. Recommendations are organized into categories and listed in order of priority. Projects that address human safety issues will be of a higher priority than projects that benefit homes. No home is worth a life. Creation of a proactive, knowledgeable community through education and outreach was identified as one of the most important tools to be included in the plan. The objective of this portion of the plan is to provide information to landowners and visitors to increase knowledge and understanding of fire related issues. The creation and maintenance of fire resilient landscapes, both around homes and across the landscape, is also a priority. Implementing defensible space around homes is a priority for fuels reduction, as well as fuels reduction across the general landscape. The following Action Plan (Table 6-2) captures actions listed throughout this CWPP. Each action has a proposed lead(s) responsible for advancing the action, a priority level for implementation, a desired timeframe for completion, and any additional notes relevant to support the action. Many actions may relate to one another. Table 6-2. Action Plan Action Lead(s) Priority Timeframe Notes Risk Assessment 1. Develop the Gallatin County Risk Assessment, including WUI mapping. County, USFS High 2019 (as part of CWPP update) 2. Compile parcel-level assessment data to inform and complete risk assessment, increase first-responder information and encourage public engagement Fire Districts, County High 2020/ongoing / Utilize Situation Analyst Montana system for standardization 3. Creation of a Cohesive Strategy Working Group (CSWG) in Gallatin County USFS, Custer Gallatin Working Group (CGWG), Gallatin Forest Partnership High 2020 4. Update risk assessment information annually to include changing development patterns, changes in fire suppression resources and methods, effects of recent fires, and other information to facilitate risk modeling and project prioritization CSWG Medium Initiate in 2021 / A high-quality, current risk assessment is important to facilitate good decision making. Annual updates would aid in project planning, depending on data availability, and staff and financial resources. Gallatin County 6-5 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Action Lead(s) Priority Timeframe Notes Resilient Landscapes 5. Review and identify priority landscapes, and design and prioritize potential treatment options, to reduce fire intensity, structure ignition, and negative wildfire impacts to identified assets. CSWG High 2021 / To follow after creation of CSWG 6. Advance prescribed fire activities. CSWG Medium 2022 Fire Adapted Communities 7. Update County Growth Policy and land use map and local area plans, as needed and appropriate, using wildfire hazard information to steer growth away from more hazardous areas. County Planning High To occur according to Planning Dept. timelines for Growth Policy updates / Update growth policies and develop future land use maps and local area plans, using wildfire hazard information to steer growth away from more hazardous areas 8. Implement land use map updates using zoning to guide growth to more appropriate areas and away from more hazardous areas County Planning Medium Occurs in conjunction with land use mapping updates 9. Use land conservation tools such as the open space bond to buffer developed areas from wildfire. County Planning Medium Ongoing (dependent on availability of Open Space funds) 10. Adopt development regulations that require best possible hazard mitigation to protect communities, neighborhoods, fire professionals, and properties/structures, in the event of a wildfire. Propose development regulations that incorporate best practices, including changes to building code, zoning code, or subdivision regulations. County Planning Medium Timeframe based on future growth and development patterns / Consider inclusion of structural building or WUI codes in the County Growth Policy update that is currently in progress 11. Engage with industry professionals on mitigation programs, activities, and opportunities to improve public education and outreach across neighborhoods and communities. County Planning, All Hazard All Discipline (AHAD) Group Medium Initiate in 2020 / Engage realtors, insurers, developers, and builders to provide info. on fire-safe const. and landscaping Gallatin County 6-6 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Action Lead(s) Priority Timeframe Notes 12. Update GCEM website with wildfire education, resources and material. GCEM Medium Ongoing 13. Promote neighborhood and community development activities and evacuation plans through programs such as Fire Adapted Communities and Ready, Set, Go! GCEM High Ongoing / Meet with and provide neighborhood groups with risk assessments, educational materials, and fuels reduction cost-sharing to assess conditions and assist with improvement and mitigation at the neighborhood scale 14. Apply for and administer cost-sharing grants to assist private landowners with fuels reduction, structural improvements, and other projects designed to lessen risk from wildfire. CSWG Medium / Work with private landowners on fuels reduction and ‘hardening’ of homes with fire resistant roofing, siding, vents, and other improvements to reduce loss potential Improved Response 15. Promote and support local fire districts to increase capacity, funding opportunities, and volunteer firefighter recruitment and retention. GCEM High Ongoing / Provide support through County Fire Program with RFA and other financial programs 16. Develop pre-suppression action plans – Improve response by planning wildfire suppression tactics, first responder and community safety and preparedness. County Fire, local fire districts High Ongoing (several pre- plans are already in- place) / Develop fire district-level wildfire pre- plans for Incident Management teams and local fire response Gallatin County 6-7 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Action Lead(s) Priority Timeframe Notes 17. Improve response by widening and/or resurfacing roads or adding second egress to communities that have only one egress/ingress route. Local RIDs, HOAs/subdivisions High Based on available funding and scheduled maintenance activities / Identify communities’ egress/ingress on a case by case basis and recommend actions to improve road access and provide safer response Refer to Appendix A for CWPP questionnaire responses regarding egress/ingress issues 18. Improve response by implementing addressing at a neighborhood level Local communities, neighborhoods, and fire districts 19. Establish, maintain, and update wildland fire response agreements (mutual aid) between the county, local fire districts, and state and federal agencies. GCEM, County Fire, local fire districts Medium Ongoing 6.4 PLAN UPDATES AND MAINTENANCE The continuous nature of implementing the Action Plan makes this CWPP a living document. Different stakeholders will be meeting at various times to discuss and implement applicable actions—some of which may take months or years to complete, while others could be ongoing. An annual review of the action plan with lead stakeholders, as identified in the Action Plan, will help further coordinate and re-evaluate the status of actions. More significant updates should occur on an as-needed basis, such as following significant fire seasons. A major update to this CWPP should be anticipated on a five-year cycle to coincide with the next Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) update. This increases the efficiency of stakeholder participation and further links content between both plans. The major CWPP update will include: / Review of all content to confirm accuracy of information, such as recent wildfire history, changes to demographics and land ownership, relevance of Cohesive Strategy themes, fire response areas, and more; / Re-assessment of risk inputs based on changes to the local environment; / Confirmation of participating stakeholders, stakeholder roles, and signatories; and, / Updated Action Plan based on revised content, updated risk assessment, and stakeholder interests. Importantly, keeping the plan updated also helps share successes with other stakeholders and community members as Gallatin County increases its capacity for resilient landscapes, fire adapted communities, and efficient response capabilities. Gallatin County A-1 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Appendix A: Stakeholder and Public Engagement during CWPP Update Process Gallatin County A-2 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan The CWPP update began in September 2017 and occurred over the course of 20 months. During this update process, two separate CWPP drafts were shared with stakeholders and the public via the Gallatin County Emergency Management (GCEM) website. Input and comments were requested from the public. The process was coordinated by the project consultant, RESPEC, who worked with the GCEM Director, Mr. Patrick Lonergan, to develop the document. The CWPP update occurred concurrently with the 5-year update of the Gallatin County Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP), and many of the stakeholder meetings and presentations addressed content and planning for both the CWPP and HMP updates. This appendix provides an overview of the CWPP engagement process. Initial Stakeholder Outreach (September 2017) An initial set of 120 stakeholders were contacted to inform them about the CWPP and HMP updates and invite their participation in the update process. Stakeholders represented county and city departments, local elected offices, federal and state agencies, fire departments/districts/service areas, and nonprofit organizations. Stakeholder Kick-Off Meetings (October 2017) Stakeholders had the opportunity to meet face-to-face with representatives from the project consultant, Mr. Mike Rotar and Ms. Libby Ellwood of RESPEC, at kick-off meetings held at seven different locations across Gallatin County, October 12 – 24, 2017. Meeting locations included: Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan, Three Forks, West Yellowstone, Big Sky, and Gallatin Gateway. A kick-off presentation of the project was also provided at the bi-monthly, All Hazards All Discipline (AHAD) meeting in Bozeman on October 26, 2017. The purpose of the kick-off meetings was to introduce the update process for the two documents. Specific to the CWPP, discussion focused on the value of CWPPs and their local application, guiding documents and legislation, and status of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) mapping in the county. Approximately 40 different stakeholders attended one or more of these kickoff meetings. Stakeholder Meeting, AHAD Group (June 27, 2018) A presentation describing progress with the CWPP update was given by RESPEC at a regular AHAD meeting on June 27, 2018. The primary purpose of this meeting was to discuss several topics specific to CWPP development, including WUI definitions, and review of several wildfire risk assessment mapping products. These risk assessment maps (Wildfire Intensity, Probability, and Relative Hazard) are developed based on existing physical parameters (weather data, topography, and vegetation) combined with computer simulation of fire starts and potential growth development. The resulting output and mapping provide spatial context and information regarding where different wildfire management and mitigation strategies are likely to be most effective. 15 stakeholders attended this meeting. Stakeholder Webinar, WUI Discussion (November 27, 2018) A webinar was held to discuss an initial draft of the WUI Mapping with stakeholders. WUI mapping was presented and the methodology for developing the map was explained. A further refined map of the Relative Wildfire Hazard was also presented. Approximately 12 stakeholders attended this webinar. Gallatin County A-3 June 2019 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Public Review and Comment Period (January - June 2019) Initial drafts of both the CWPP and HMP documents were made available for public and stakeholder review in early January 2019. Draft documents were posted to the GCEM website and comments and comments and input requested. A final draft of the combined document (HMP update, with CWPP update included as an Attachment) were made available for public and stakeholder review in late May 2019. Documents were posted to the GCEM website and input and comments requested from the public. Stakeholder Meeting (January 22, 2019) A presentation describing progress with the HMP and CWPP updates was provided by RESPEC on January 22, 2019. For the CWPP update topics included a final review of the WUI definition to be used, draft final WUI mapping and wildfire hazard mapping, and including WUI definitions, and a discussion of the Cohesive Strategy approach to be used to develop the CWPP Action Plan. A schedule was presented that outlined milestones throughout the coming months for completion of the document updates. A CWPP Questionnaire was developed and sent to all local fire departments/districts/service areas to solicit input regarding identification of existing conditions within their jurisdictions, and to identify strategies for mitigation of wildland fire risk and to improve response capabilities. Copies of the returned questionnaires are provided in this Appendix. 12 stakeholders attended this meeting. CWPP Questionnaires were returned by 5 local fire jurisdictions, and by the Custer-Gallatin National Forest NOTE: Comments received during the public review and comment period in June 2019 will be reviewed, and incorporated into the CWPP update, as appropriate, prior to final CWPP adoption.