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HomeMy WebLinkAboutHVS Proposed Hotel ConvCtr Market Study - Bozeman, MT - 4.13.2018 FINAL ... MARKET STUDY Proposed Hotel and Convention Center BOZEMAN, MONTANA SUBMITTED TO:EXISTING Mr. Brit Fontenot City of Bozeman 121 North Rouse Avenue Bozeman, Montana, 59715 +1 (406) 582-2258 PREPARED BY: HVS Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting 205 West Randolph, Suite 1650 Chicago, Illinois 60606 +1 (312) 587-9900 October 1, 2014 April 13, 2018 Mr. Brit Fontenot City of Bozeman 121 North Rouse Avenue Bozeman, Montana, 59715 +1 (406) 582-2258 bfontenot@BOZEMAN.NET Re: Proposed Hotel and Convention Center Bozeman, Montana Dear Mr. Fontenot: Attached you will find our Market Study of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center in Bozeman, Montana. We certify that we have no undisclosed interest in the property, and our employment and compensation are not contingent upon our findings. This study is subject to the comments made throughout this report and to all assumptions and limiting conditions set forth herein. It has been a pleasure working with you. Please let us if you have any questions. Sincerely, HVS Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting Tom Hazinski Managing Director Brian Harris Director 205 West Randolph Suite 1650 Chicago, Illinois 60606 +1 312-587-9900 +1 312-488-3631 FAX www.hvs.com Atlanta Boston Boulder Chicago Dallas Denver Las Vegas Mexico City Miami Nassau New York Newport San Francisco Toronto Vancouver Washington Athens Buenos Aires Dubai Hong Kong Lima London Madrid Mumbai New Delhi Sao Paulo Shanghai Singapore Table of Contents SECTION TITLE PAGE 1. Summary of Salient Data and Conclusions 4 2. Nature of the Assignment 12 3. Bozeman Market Overview 17 4. Convention Center Development Recommendations 26 5. Supply and Demand Analysis 45 6. Average Rate Analysis 66 7. Projection of Income and Expense 69 8. Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions 86 9. Certification 89 i. Penetration Explanation 90 April 13, 2018 Summary of Salient Data and Conclusions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 4 1. Summary of Salient Data and Conclusions The City of Bozeman, Montana engaged HVS Convention, Sports, and Entertainment Facilities Consulting (“HVS”) to conduct a Market Study of a proposed hotel and convention center (“Proposed Hotel and Convention Center”). The study will allow the City to strategically plan the growth of the convention and hospitality markets in Bozeman. For the purpose of this study, HVS assumes a focus service/extended stay hotel with an attached convention center will open on January 1, 2020. The 120-room focus-service hotel features a restaurant, a lounge, 16,000 square feet of meeting space, a business center, an exercise room, and market pantry. The 80-room extended-stay hotel features a breakfast area, a business center, an exercise room, a market pantry, and a guest laundry room. Shared facilities include an indoor pool and whirlpool. The convention center would include 16,000 square feet of rentable function space. This study employs the methodology illustrated in the figure below. FIGURE 1-1 MARKET STUDY METHODOLOGY Research Potential Competitive Hotels Comparable Hotel Operating Data Proposed Hotel Market Penetration Occupancy and ADR Forecasts by Market Segment Estimate of Proposed Hotel Financial Operations Market ADR and Occupancy Estimates Inflation and Market Growth Assumptions Economic Indicators Competitive Set Analysis Induced Demand Unaccommodated Demand Room Supply Changes Subject of the Study Methodology April 13, 2018 Summary of Salient Data and Conclusions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 5 HVS 1) analyzed the historical performance of a competitive set of hotels, 2) estimated the amounts of induced and unaccommodated demand in the market, and 3) researched potential changes in room supply. Based on these hotel market trends and economic and demographic indicators of future changes in hotel demand, HVS projected the future performance of a competitive set of hotel properties. Through a market penetration analysis, we estimated the average daily room rate and occupancy of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center in each of three market segments—commercial, meeting & group, and leisure. An estimate of average daily room rates and occupancies generates a projection of room revenues, which, when combined with the operating data on comparable hotels, yields a ten-year estimate of financial operations. The methodology used to develop this study is based on the market research and valuation techniques set forth in the textbooks authored by Hospitality Valuation Services for the American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and the Appraisal Institute, entitled The Valuation of Hotels and Motels,1 Hotels, Motels and Restaurants: Valuations and Market Studies,2 The Computerized Income Approach to Hotel/Motel Market Studies and Valuations,3 Hotels and Motels: A Guide to Market Analysis, Investment Analysis, and Valuations,4 and Hotels and Motels – Valuations and Market Studies.5 All information was collected and analyzed by the staff of HVS Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting. The effective date of the report is April 13, 2018. Tom Hazinski inspected the possible sites for the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center on February 7th and 8th, 2018. The ownership of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center was not determined as of the date of this study. The property would be subject to franchise and marketing fees estimated at 7.6% of gross revenues. Details pertaining to management terms were not yet determined at the time of this report; however, we assume that the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center will be managed by a professional hotel-operating company, with fees deducted at rates consistent with 1 Stephen Rushmore, The Valuation of Hotels and Motels. (Chicago: American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers, 1978). 2 Stephen Rushmore, Hotels, Motels and Restaurants: Valuations and Market Studies. (Chicago: American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers, 1983). 3 Stephen Rushmore, The Computerized Income Approach to Hotel/Motel Market Studies and Valuations. (Chicago: American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers, 1990). 4 Stephen Rushmore, Hotels and Motels: A Guide to Market Analysis, Investment Analysis, and Valuations (Chicago: Appraisal Institute, 1992). 5 Stephen Rushmore and Erich Baum, Hotels and Motels – Valuations and Market Studies. (Chicago: Appraisal Institute, 2001). Pertinent Dates Ownership, Franchise, and Management Assumptions April 13, 2018 Summary of Salient Data and Conclusions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 6 current market standards. We have assumed a market-appropriate total management fee of 3.0% of total revenues in our study. The following figure provides a long-term perspective on the supply and demand trends for a set of competitive hotels selected by HVS, with data provided by STR. HVS selected these hotels based on their potential to compete with the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. FIGURE 1-2 HISTORICAL COMPETITIVE HOTELS TRENDS 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ADR RevPAR Occupancy Source: STR The following figure reflects our estimates of operating data for hotels in the primary and weighted secondary competitors for the years 2015 through 2017. Revenue per available room, (“RevPAR”) is a common hotel industry performance metric, calculated by multiplying the occupancy rate by ADR and provides a combined measure of rate and occupancy. FIGURE 1-3 WEIGHTED HISTORICAL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND PRICE TRENDS Year Accommodated Room Nights Room Nights Available Competitive Hotels Occupancy Competitive Hotels ADR Competitive Hotels RevPAR Amount 2015 256,000 364,000 70.3%$113.51 $79.83 2016 281,000 379,000 74.1%$115.35 $85.52 2017 318,000 426,000 74.6%$122.13 $91.17 Percent Change 2016 9.8%4.1%5.4%1.6%7.1% 2017 13.2%12.4%0.7%5.9%6.6% Summary of Hotel Market Trends April 13, 2018 Summary of Salient Data and Conclusions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 7 Since 2015, accommodated room nights increased by 24.2%, while the number of available room nights increased with a 17% change. As a result, market occupancy increased (6.1%) during the same period. Average daily room rate grew (7.6%) since 2014. The combined effect of changes in occupancy and ADR caused RevPAR to grow (14.2%) over the three-year period analyzed here. HVS also examined the recent changes in the competitive hotels over the last 12 months as reported to STR, shown in the following figure. FIGURE 1-4 UNWEIGHTED HISTORICAL 12 MONTH DEMAND TRENDS Month Room Sales Prior Year Room Sales Change Feb-17 25,024 23,706 1,318 5.6% Mar-17 28,599 27,935 664 2.4% Apr-17 25,348 25,555 -207 -0.8% May-17 29,965 29,638 327 1.1% Jun-17 36,127 32,572 3,555 10.9% Jul-17 38,167 36,327 1,840 5.1% Aug-17 38,050 35,881 2,169 6.0% Sep-17 35,138 33,885 1,253 3.7% Oct-17 30,055 29,366 689 2.3% Nov-17 23,316 21,068 2,248 10.7% Dec-17 25,251 23,468 1,783 7.6% Jan-18 25,911 24,168 1,743 7.2% 12 Month Total 360,951 343,569 17,382 5.1% Percentage Source: STR Demand data from STR showed very strong growth over the last 12 months for demand within the competitive set. A major factor in the increase in demand is the introduction of new hotels within the competitive set. To forecast the occupancy of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center, HVS performed a market penetration analysis of three market segments. The following figure summarizes estimates of accommodated room night demand by market segment, assuming the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center begins operation in 2020. Most Recent Twelve Months Demand Summary of Forecast Occupancy and Average Rate April 13, 2018 Summary of Salient Data and Conclusions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 8 FIGURE 1-5 PROPOSED HOTEL AND CONVENTION CENTER ESTIMATED ROOM NIGHT ABSORPTION BY MARKET SEGMENT 2020 2021 2022 2023 Available Room Nights 73,000 73,000 73,000 73,000 Absorption by Segment Commercial 22,200 23,000 23,400 23,600 Meeting and Group 11,100 11,900 12,100 12,300 Leisure 19,200 19,700 20,100 20,200 Total Absorption 52,500 54,600 55,600 56,100 Projected Occupancy 72%75%76%76% Percent Segmentation Commercial 42%42%42%42% Meeting and Group 21%22%22%22% Leisure 37%36%36%36% In a stabilized year of demand (2022), the property could absorb room nights and achieve a stabilized occupancy level of 76%. We positioned the average daily room rate in the base year 2017 at $170.00 for the focus-service hotel and $145.00 for the extended-stay hotel. This rate would grow with inflation and in proportion to the rate growth in the competitive set. The positioned average daily rate is prior to the discount of 3% in 2020 and 1% in 2021 as the hotel is stabilizing in the market. The figure below compares the estimated average daily rate of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center with that of the competitive hotels. April 13, 2018 Summary of Salient Data and Conclusions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 9 FIGURE 1-6 COMPETITIVE HOTELS & PROPOSED HOTEL AND CONVENTION CENTER AVERAGE RATE FORECAST Base Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Competitive Hotels $122 $126 $129 $132 $135 $139 $142 $146 $150 Proposed Hotel $0 $0 $0 $152 $159 $165 $169 $173 $178 Competitive Hotels Proposed Hotel HVS supports its estimates of revenue and expense levels using comparable operations or trends specific to this market. The following figure presents the HVS forecast of income and expense for the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center in the first stabilized year of operation. Summary of Forecast Income and Expense Statement April 13, 2018 Summary of Salient Data and Conclusions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 10 FIGURE 1-7 FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN THE STABILIZED YEAR (2022) STATISTICS Number of Rooms 200 Occupied Room Nights 55,480 Occupancy 76% Average Rate $181.90 RevPAR $138.25 $000 % of Gross Operating Revenue Rooms $10,092 81.8% Food 1,695 13.7% Beverage 377 3.1% Other Operated Departments 122 1.0% Miscellaneous Income 50 0.4% Total Operating Revenues $12,336 100% Departmental Expense* Rooms $2,321 23.0% Food & Beverage 1,450 70.0% Other Operated Departments 84 68.5% Total Expenses $3,855 31.3% Departmental Income $8,481 68.7% Undistributed Operating Expense Administrative & General $973 7.9% Marketing 670 5.4% Franchise Fee 940 7.6% Prop. Operations & Maint.389 3.2% Utilities 353 2.9% Info & Telecom Systems 57 0.5% Total Expense $3,382 27.4% Gross House Profit $5,099 41.3% Management Fee 370 3.0% Income Before Non-Opr. Inc. & Exp.$4,729 38.3% Non-Operating Income & Expense Property Taxes $308 2.5% Insurance 81 0.7% Reserve for Replacement 493 4.0% Total Expense 883 7.2% EBITDA Less Reserve $3,846 31.2%0.0% *Departmental expense ratios are calculated as a percentage of departmental revenue. April 13, 2018 Summary of Salient Data and Conclusions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 11 The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center is expected to stabilize at a profitable level. Please refer to the Projection of Income and Expense chapter of our report for a detailed explanation of the methodology used in deriving this forecast. An extraordinary assumption is one which relates directly to the subject hotel development and which, if found to be false, could alter our opinions or conclusions. Extraordinary assumptions presume as fact otherwise uncertain information about physical, legal, or economic characteristics of the subject property, or about conditions external to the property such as market conditions or trends, or about the integrity of data used in an analysis. An extraordinary assumption may be used in an analysis only if it is required to develop credible options and conclusions; a reasonable basis exists for the assumption, use of the extraordinary assumption results in a credible analysis. HVS discloses the use of any extraordinary assumption. In addition to the normal hotel development assumptions that would apply to any hotel, the projections of the subject hotel’s occupancy and rates are dependent on a number of extraordinary assumptions. • The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would be located at a site in/near downtown Bozeman. • The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would be developed with the amount of meeting space shown in this study. • The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would be developed as a dual- branded property. • The Convention Center would be developed and operated as a single entity with the hotel. Our analysis does not address unforeseeable events that could alter the proposed project and the market conditions reflected in the analyses; we assume that no significant changes, other than those anticipated and explained in this report, would take place from the date of inspection to the date of this report. Our findings are subject to all the assumptions and limiting conditions described herein. The reader should contact the authors with any questions after reading the report. Extraordinary Assumptions April 13, 2018 Nature of the Assignment Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 12 2. Nature of the Assignment The suitability of the land for the operation of a lodging facility is an important consideration affecting the economic viability of a property and its ultimate marketability. The site for the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center will be proximate to downtown Bozeman. The specific site was not selected as of the date of this study. The key site characteristics that affect the viability of a hotel property include its capacity to accommodate the project, accessibility, visibility, and supporting road and utility infrastructure. The ownership of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center was not determined as of the date of this study. For purposes of this study, we have assumed the property would enter into a franchise agreement with a national brand and utilize a professional third-party manager. Destination appeal is a critical factor in choosing a site. Facilities alone do not create a competitive advantage. The vitality of the neighborhood surrounding a hotel create destination appeal. It is important to analyze the site with respect to regional and local transportation routes and demand generators, including ease of access. The City of Bozeman is readily accessible to a variety of local and county roads, as well as state and interstate, which are illustrated on the following map. Site Ownership, Franchise, and Management Assumptions Access and Visibility April 13, 2018 Nature of the Assignment Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 13 REGIONAL ACCESS LOCAL ACCESS Once a site is selected, it will need to be examined for any nuisance or hazards. Nuisances and Hazards April 13, 2018 Nature of the Assignment Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 14 Once a site is selected, the flood zone will need to be examined for suitability of a hotel. Once a site is selected, the zoning will need to be examined for suitability of a hotel. Once a site is selected, the easements and encroachments will need to be examined for suitability of a hotel. The quality of a lodging facility's physical improvements has a direct influence on marketability, occupancy, and average room rate. The design and functionality of the structure can also affect operating efficiency and overall profitability. HVS assumes that the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center will be a focus- service/extended stay dual-branded property and with the finish typical of a first- class hotel. The hotel’s facility is expected to be of high quality, conforming at a minimum to the brand specific guidelines set forth by the operator that is chosen for the hotel. Our forecast assumes that the property will be maintained in a competitive condition, undergoing regular renovations of soft goods and case goods funded primarily by a reserve for replacement. For this analysis, we assume that the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would be financed sometime in 2018 and after a one year design and construction period, the hotel would open on January 1, 2020. The following figure summarizes the facilities that will be available at the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. Flood Zone Zoning Easements and Encroachments Description of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center April 13, 2018 Nature of the Assignment Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 15 FIGURE 2-1 PROPOSED HOTEL AND CONVENTION CENTER FACILITIES Guestroom Configuration Rooms Focus-Service Hotel Rooms Extended-Stay Hotel Total Rooms Proposed Hotel Kings 60 0 60 Queen/Queen 54 0 54 Suites 6 0 6 Studio Suites 0 70 70 One Bedroom Suites 0 10 10 Total (ADA-Compliant per Local code)120 80 200 Food & Beverage Facilities Seating Capacity Seating Capacity Seating Capacity Dining 60 0 60 Lounge 36 0 36 Complimentary Service Area 0 48 48 Convention Center Square Feet Square Feet Square Feet Ballroom 10,000 0 10,000 Meeting Space 5,000 0 5,000 Boardrooms 1,000 0 1,000 Total 16,000 0 16,000 Amenities & Services Indoor Pool Indoor Whirlpool Fitness Center Business Center Market Pantry Guest Laundry Room Infrastructure Parking Spaces 300 Elevators 3 Guest Life Safety Systems Sprinklers, Smoke Detectors For this study, we assume the following: • The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would offer a well-designed, functional layout of support areas and guestrooms. • The hotel staff would be adequately trained to allow for a successful opening. • Pre-marketing efforts would have introduced the product to major local accounts at least six months in advance of the opening date. • The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would meet all pertinent codes and brand standards. April 13, 2018 Nature of the Assignment Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 16 • The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would be fully open and operational on the assumed opening date and would meet all local building codes and brand standards. • Construction would not create any environmental hazards. • The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would fully comply with the Americans with Disabilities Act. Construction Cost The project is in the preliminary stages of development. After its opening, the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would require ongoing upgrades and periodic renovations to maintain its competitive level in this market. These costs should be adequately funded by the forecasted reserve for replacement, as long as the hotel’s staff employs a successful, ongoing maintenance program. Capital Expenditures April 13, 2018 Bozeman Market Overivew Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 17 3. Bozeman Market Overview HVS explored economic and demographic factors that affect the level of lodging demand in the market including population, income, employment, retail sales, business presence, major tourism attractions, and transportation access. We relied on third party data sources to review historical trends and provide forecasts of the rate of growth or decline of the local economy. We also assessed whether the neighborhood surrounding the subject site would support the development of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. This market overview provides a framework for projections of lodging demand and revenue growth in the local market. Our analysis of the outlook for this specific market also considers the broader context of the national economy. The U.S. economy expanded during the last three years, with a relatively low point in growth occurring during the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, as well as the first quarter of 2017. Most recently, the U.S. economy expanded by 3.1% and 3.0% in the second and third quarters of 2017, respectively. The recent acceleration reflected strong personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending. National Economic Trends April 13, 2018 Bozeman Market Overivew Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 18 FIGURE 3-1 UNITED STATES GDP GROWTH RATES US GDP Change 2010 Q1 1.6 Q2 3.9 Q3 2.8 Q4 2.8 2011 Q1 -1.3 Q2 3.2 Q3 0.8 Q4 4.6 2012 Q1 2.3 Q2 1.6 Q3 2.5 Q4 0.1 2013 Q1 1.9 Q2 1.1 Q3 3.1 Q4 4.0 2014 Q1 -1.2 Q2 4.0 Q3 5.0 Q4 2.0 2015 Q1 3.2 Q2 2.7 Q3 1.6 Q4 0.5 2016 Q1 0.6 Q2 2.2 Q3 2.8 Q4 1.8 2017 Q1 1.2 Q2 3.1 Q3 3.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. economic growth continues to support expansion of lodging demand. In 2017, demand growth through November registered 2.7%, stronger than the 1.6% level recorded in 2016. The economic growth, low unemployment, higher levels of personal income, and stability in the U.S. economy as of early 2018 is helping to maintain strong interest in hotel investments by a diverse array of market participants. The market area is the City of Bozeman and the surrounding area as shown on the map below. Market Area Definition April 13, 2018 Bozeman Market Overivew Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 19 MAP OF MARKET AREA HVS used the Complete Economic and Demographic Data Source published by Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., a well-regarded forecasting service based in Washington, D.C. as a source of economic and demographic data. Using a database containing more than 900 variables for each county in the nation, Woods & Poole employs a sophisticated regional model to forecast economic and demographic trends. Census data and information published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis provide the basis for historical statistics. Woods & Poole formulates the projections, and all dollar amounts have been adjusted for inflation, thus reflecting real change. The following figure summarizes these data. Economic and Demographic Review April 13, 2018 Bozeman Market Overivew Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 20 FIGURE 3-2 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC DATA SUMMARY Economic Indicator/Area Beginning Amount 2000 2010 2018 2025 Ending Amount Resident Population (millions) Gallatin County 0.07 0.12 2.3% State of Montana 0.90 1.13 0.9% United States 282.16 352.57 0.9% Per-Capita Personal Income* (thousands) Gallatin County $31.30 $44.8 1.2% State of Montana $28.38 $43.1 1.5% United States $36.81 $49.9 1.5% W&P Wealth Index Gallatin County $95.86 $100.77 -0.3% State of Montana $82.07 $90.56 0.0% United States $100.00 $100.00 0.0% Food and Beverage Sales* (billions) Gallatin County $0.13 $0.30 3.3% State of Montana $1.27 $2.30 2.0% United States $368.83 $664.41 1.9% Total Retail Sales* (billions) Gallatin County $1.31 $2.67 2.8% State of Montana $12.76 $20.50 1.5% United States $3,902.83 $5,578.47 1.5% * Inflation Adjusted Estimated Annual Compound Change 2018 to 2025 Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. Note that Headwaters Economics, an independent, nonprofit research group located in Bozeman, projects stronger residential population growth. The characteristics of an area's workforce indicate the type and amount of transient visitation likely to be generated by local businesses. Sectors such as finance, insurance, and real estate (“FIRE”); wholesale trade; and services produce a considerable number of visitors who are not particularly rate-sensitive. The government sector often generates transient room nights, but per-diem reimbursement allowances often limit the accommodations selection to budget and mid-priced lodging facilities. Contributions from manufacturing, construction, transportation, communications and public utilities (“TCPU”) employers can also be important, depending on the company type. Workforce Characteristics April 13, 2018 Bozeman Market Overivew Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 21 The following figure shows the estimated change in employment in the top ten sectors in the county workforce distribution by the various business sectors in 2000, 2010, and 2018, and a forecast for 2025. FIGURE 3-3 TOP TEN EMPLOYMENT SECTORS IN GALLATIN COUNTY Sector/Geographic Area Employment Beginning Amount (thousands) 2000 2010 2018 2025 Ending Amount (thousands) Gallatin County Retail Trade 7.1 11.7 State And Local Government 7.6 11.2 Accommodation And Food Services 5.1 9.5 Construction 4.8 9.3 Professional And Technical Services 3.6 8.7 Health Care And Social Assistance 3.5 8.3 Real Estate And Rental And Lease 2.4 5.2 Other Services, Except Public Administration 2.6 4.7 Manufacturing 3.0 4.2 Administrative And Waste Services 1.6 3.6 Other 9.9 18.7 Total Gallatin County 51.1 95.2 U.S.165,371 217,671 Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. Gallatin County is currently in a growth phase, with all ten top employment sectors expected to continue to grow. Growth in tourism visitation should drive more accommodation, food service, and retail sales. The following figure presents historical unemployment rates for the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center’s market area. Unemployment Statistics April 13, 2018 Bozeman Market Overivew Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 22 FIGURE 3-4 UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS Year City State Country 2007 2.4 %3.6 %4.6 % 2008 3.9 5.1 5.8 2009 6.1 6.8 9.3 2010 6.0 7.3 9.6 2011 5.4 6.9 8.9 2012 4.6 6.0 8.1 2013 3.8 5.4(d)7.4 2014 3.0 4.7(d)6.2 2015 2.7 4.2(d)5.3 2016 2.5 4.1(d)4.9 Recent Month - Dec 2016 2.4 %4.3 %4.7 % 2017 2.7 4.2 4.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The figure below shows the larger employers in the region. FIGURE 3-5 MAJOR AREA EMPLOYERS Rank Firm Number of Employees 1 Montana State University 1,000 + 2 School District #7 1,000 + 3 Bozeman Deaconess Hospital 1,000 + 4 Belgrade School District 500 - 999 5 City of Bozeman 250 - 499 6 Department of Agriculture 250 - 499 7 Gallatin County 250 - 499 8 Oracle America 250 - 499 9 Town Pump Convenience Services 250 - 499 10 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.250 - 499 Source: City of Bozeman The following bullet points highlight major demand generators for this market: • With over 16,000 students, Montana State University (MSU) is an important anchor within the local economy and serves as the region's largest employer. MSU also features an Innovation Campus that is highly recognized. Top research departments include immunology, chemistry and biochemistry, transportation, physics, and land resources and Major Business and Industry April 13, 2018 Bozeman Market Overivew Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 23 environmental sciences. A majority of the funding for these departments comes from the National Institutes of Health; Departments of Energy, Defense, and Agriculture; and private sources. In January 2017, a proposal was submitted for a 40-acre research park at MSU, which would include multiple buildings, specialized labs, and research offices. The project is still in the very early stages of planning. Recently completed projects at MSU include a new parking structure and residence hall, while current construction projects include a new dining hall and College of Engineering Building. Enrollment at MSU has increased year-over-year since 2007. • Oracle is a major employer in the Bozeman market and is the area's largest employer within the high technology industry. In 2011, Oracle acquired Rightnow Technologies, one of Bozeman's largest employers. In addition, Bozeman has reportedly experienced a surge in technology start-ups, as former Oracle employees reach the end of their non-compete agreements. • The healthcare sector also plays an important role in the local economy. Bozeman Health is the city's largest private employer with over 1,800 employees; the system encompasses two hospitals, several specialty treatment centers, and a network of physicians, urgent-care clinics, and outpatient and assisted living facilities. The new Belgrade Medical Center, which is part of Bozeman Health, opened in October 2016 and features 20 medical providers, physical therapy, urgent care services, and laboratory services. The 37,000-square-foot facility cost approximately $10 million to build. In 2016, Bozeman Health Deaconess Hospital earned a three-year accreditation from DNV GL-Healthcare, which indicates that the facilities and staff meet patient-safety standards set forth by the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The economic base is diverse in this market, with strong employers in the technology, healthcare, and education sectors. The City of Bozeman is also anchored by the tourism industry due to its proximity to two national parks, several ski resorts, and renowned trout fishing. As a result, agencies within the U.S. Department of Agriculture, particularly the Forest Service, also have a presence in Bozeman. Increased tourism levels, expansions at MSU, and continued growth within the high technology industry should support the local economy going forward. Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport at Gallatin Field is a public-use airport located eight miles northwest of Downtown Bozeman in Belgrade, Montana. In 2011, the airport completed an expansion project that increased the size of the facility by 130,000 square feet. Three new gates, a third baggage carousel, and additional retail outlets were added as part of the $16-million expansion. In 2012, Airport Traffic April 13, 2018 Bozeman Market Overivew Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 24 international flights were allowed after a U.S. Customs and Border Patrol facility opened. FIGURE 3-6 AIRPORT PASSENGERS BOZEMAN YELLOWSTONE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT Year Passenger Traffic Annual Percentage Change 2008 702,000 2009 683,000 -2.7% 2010 728,000 6.6% 2011 796,000 9.3% 2012 867,000 8.9% 2013 885,000 2.1% 2014 967,000 9.3% 2015 1,021,000 5.6% 2016 1,107,000 8.4% 2017 1,200,000 8.4% Source: Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport continues to experience strong growth in passenger counts, with 314,205 passengers through March of 2018, a 14.4% increase from the same period in 2017. The market benefits from a variety of tourist and leisure attractions in the area. The peak season for tourism in this area is from May to September. During other times of the year, weekend demand comprises travelers passing through en route to other destinations, people visiting friends or relatives, and other similar weekend demand generators. Primary attractions in the area include the following: • Yellowstone National Park is a 3,500-square-mile wilderness recreation area that spreads across Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho, and the park is located less than 100 miles to the south of Bozeman. The park features dramatic canyons, alpine rivers, lush forests, hot springs, and gushing geysers, as well as hundreds of animal species. One of the most famous attractions in the park is Old Faithful, which was the first geyser in the park to receive a name in 1870. The park has seen significant increases in visitation over the last several years, particularly due to improving economic conditions and the National Park Service Centennial, which was in 2016. Tourist Attractions April 13, 2018 Bozeman Market Overivew Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 25 • In addition to Yellowstone, the greater region offers an abundance of outdoor activities. Additionally, the City of Bozeman is proximate to several national forests. Among the most popular activities are rafting, hiking, world-renowned trout-fishing, and skiing. Major ski resorts in the area include Big Ski Resort, Bridger Bowl Ski Area, and the Yellowstone Club, which is a private club. • Museum of the Rockies is recognized as one of the world's finest research and history museums; it is known for its extensive display of dinosaur fossils, including a full-scale T-Rex skeleton. The museum is accredited by the American Alliance of Museums and is a member of the Association of Science-Technology Centers Travel Passport. • Montana State University is located in Bozeman and is host to many athletic and special events throughout the year. Move-in week, Parents' Weekend, and graduation events also draw thousands of visitors to the city annually. Additionally, Downtown Bozeman is a primary shopping and entertainment destination, also offering numerous restaurants and bars. April 13, 2018 Bozeman Market Overivew Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 26 YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK This section discussed a wide variety of economic indicators for Bozeman. The city is experiencing a period of economic strength and expansion, led by the education, technology, and tourism sectors. The outlook for the market area is positive. Conclusion April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 27 4. Convention Center Development Recommendations This analysis of comparable venues provides a basis for developing program recommendations and forecasts of event demand. HVS compared the function spaces, adjacent hotel capacities, and characteristics of the markets relevant to the success of a convention center. Event planners select host cities for their events based on the overall package that a city may offer. Bozeman competes with other cities in the State of Montana and throughout the western U.S. for a share of association, corporate, and other group meeting business. Several factors determine a city’s overall strength and potential in the meetings market. These factors include the attributes of the convention facilities, lodging supply, the economic and demographic profile of the community, transportation access, tourism amenities, and overall destination appeal. HVS analyzed two sets of venues: • convention and conference centers in the state of Montana which may compete with the proposed venue in Bozeman, and • convention and conference centers in the northwest U.S. metropolitan markets with small- to medium-sized population bases which may compete with the proposed venue in Bozeman. The venues are listed in the figure below along with their location and the total amount of rentable function space. April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 28 FIGURE 4-1 COMPARABLE VENUES Name of Venue Location Montana Convention Centers Proposed Billings Conference Center Billings, MT 66,000 Proposed Missoula Conference Center Missoula, MT 25,500 Proposed Bozeman Conference Center Bozeman, MT 20,000 Montana State Strand Union Building Bozeman, MT 17,858 Hilton Garden Inn Missoula Missoula, MT 15,581 Helena Civic Center Helena, MT 10,730 Regional Convention Centers Bismarck Event Center Bismarck, ND 115,911 Rushmore Plaza Civic Center Rapid City, SD 89,755 Boise Centre Boise, ID 63,773 Casper Events Center Casper, WY 30,896 Yakima Convention Center Yakima, WA 30,367 Wenatchee Convention Center Wenatchee, WA 24,852 Great Falls Civic Center Great Falls, MT 23,938 Red Lion Hotel and Convention Center Billings, MT 21,898 Radisson Hotel Cheyenne Cheyenne, WY 19,116 Montana State Strand Union Building Bozeman, MT 17,858 Fairmont Hot Springs Resort Butte, MT 14,310 Lander Community & Convention Center Lander, WY 10,887 Hilton Garden Inn Kalispell Kalispell, MT 10,250 Marian H. Rochelle Gateway Center Laramie, WY 10,000 Sources: Respective Venues Total Function Space Critical for several types of events such as conventions, tradeshows, and consumer shows, the amount and quality of exhibition space determines the size and type of events that a venue can accommodate. A comparison of the exhibition space available at each of the selected comparable facilities provides an indication of the appropriate amount of space for Bozeman. Several fairgrounds and sports venues throughout the state of Montana and the region offer exhibition space. HVS excludes these venues from this analysis, because they would not compete for conventions which, typically require exhibit, ballroom, and meeting space under one roof. Exhibition Space Assessment April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 29 FIGURE 4-2 TOTAL EXHIBITION SPACE IN COMPARABLE VENUES Regional Convention Centers sf Bismarck Event Center Bismarck 100,000 Rushmore Plaza Civic Center Rapid City 64,449 Casper Events Center Casper 24,064 Wenatchee Convention Center Wenatchee 7,506 Boise Centre Boise 0 Red Lion Hotel and Convention Center Billings 0 Radisson Hotel Cheyenne Cheyenne 0 Montana State Strand Union Building Bozeman 0 Yakima Convention Center Yakima 0 Great Falls Civic Center Great Falls 0 Hilton Garden Inn Kalispell Kalispell 0 Fairmont Hot Springs Resort Butte 0 Marian H. Rochelle Gateway Center Laramie 0 Lander Community & Convention Center Lander 0 Average 49,005 . None of the comparable venues in Montana offer dedicated exhibition space. Where exhibit space is required, these venues use multi-purpose space, a ballroom, or pre- function areas. As noted above, fairgrounds and sports arenas are the only venues in Montana that offer exhibit space. Of the regional competitors, only a small number offer a large exhibit hall for events. A convention center in Bozeman would compete for conventions with venues of various sizes throughout the northwestern U.S. and those with exhibit halls offer relatively modest amounts of exhibition space. The comparable facilities demonstrate that a dedicated exhibit hall as part of the proposed convention center is not necessary in Bozeman. In addition to social events (such as weddings and fundraisers) that host banquets, several other types of events, such as conventions and tradeshows, typically require food services in a ballroom setting. General assemblies at conventions and tradeshows use a ballroom with a theater or banquet set-up. As facility operators attempt to grow food service revenues at their facilities and event planners seek a higher level of service for their attendees, the size of the ballroom often determines a venue’s event size capacity. The figure below compares the amounts of available banquet space in the competitive venues. Ballroom Space Assessment April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 30 FIGURE 4-3 BALLROOM SPACE IN COMPETITIVE VENUES Montana Convention Centers sf # divisions Proposed Billings Conference Center Billings 40,000 3 Proposed Missoula Conference Center Missoula 17,500 na Proposed Bozeman Conference Center Bozeman 15,000 5 Hilton Garden Inn Missoula Missoula 13,195 7 Montana State Strand Union Building Bozeman 13,010 4 Helena Civic Center Helena 10,730 1 Average 18,239 4 Regional Convention Centers sf # divisions Boise Centre Boise 38,101 9 Yakima Convention Center Yakima 23,568 8 Great Falls Civic Center Great Falls 15,300 1 Rushmore Plaza Civic Center Rapid City 15,264 4 Montana State Strand Union Building Bozeman 13,010 4 Red Lion Hotel and Convention Center Billings 11,484 7 Wenatchee Convention Center Wenatchee 10,080 2 Lander Community & Convention Center Lander 9,387 1 Hilton Garden Inn Kalispell Kalispell 8,550 4 Radisson Hotel Cheyenne Cheyenne 8,100 3 Marian H. Rochelle Gateway Center Laramie 8,000 5 Fairmont Hot Springs Resort Butte 5,696 3 Casper Events Center Casper 3,820 1 Bismarck Event Center Bismarck 0 0 Average 13,105 4 Sources: Respective Venues Ballrooms in competitive convention centers range from approximately 4,000 to 40,000 square feet. Many competitive convention centers recognize the importance of a large, flexible ballroom and use movable walls to create multiple potential room configurations. Meeting rooms can accommodate sub-groups as they break out of larger general sessions at conventions and tradeshows. Additionally, these smaller rooms can support self-contained meetings, training sessions, seminars, classes, and a variety of small meeting functions. A facility’s meeting rooms are often its most frequently used function spaces. Generally, convention centers should offer meeting space proportionate to the amount of exhibition and ballroom space available at the facility. However, the optimum amount of meeting space can vary depending on a facility’s target market. The following figure presents a comparison of available meeting space in the competitive venues. Meeting/Break-out Room Assessment April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 31 FIGURE 4-4 MEETING SPACE IN COMPARABLE VENUES Montana Convention Centers sf # rooms Proposed Billings Conference Center Billings 26,000 14 Proposed Missoula Conference Center Missoula 8,000 0 Proposed Bozeman Conference Center Bozeman 5,000 5 Montana State Strand Union Building Bozeman 4,848 7 Hilton Garden Inn Missoula Missoula 2,386 6 Helena Civic Center Helena 0 0 Average 9,247 8 Regional Convention Centers sf # rooms Boise Centre Boise 25,672 17 Bismarck Event Center Bismarck 15,911 0 Radisson Hotel Cheyenne Cheyenne 11,016 8 Red Lion Hotel and Convention Center Billings 10,414 11 Rushmore Plaza Civic Center Rapid City 10,042 10 Great Falls Civic Center Great Falls 8,638 5 Fairmont Hot Springs Resort Butte 8,614 5 Wenatchee Convention Center Wenatchee 7,212 14 Yakima Convention Center Yakima 6,799 8 Montana State Strand Union Building Bozeman 4,848 7 Casper Events Center Casper 3,012 4 Marian H. Rochelle Gateway Center Laramie 2,000 5 Hilton Garden Inn Kalispell Kalispell 1,700 5 Lander Community & Convention Center Lander 1,500 3 Average 8,384 8 Sources: Respective Venues Meeting space in competitive venues ranges from approximately 1,500 to 26,000 square feet. Several venues house large amounts of meeting space and a greater number of meeting rooms, increasing their ability to host larger events and simultaneous smaller functions. As the competitive landscape is constantly shifting, many cities have considered new or expanded convention center developments. The following list of developments shows that only some attempts to develop new venues or expand existing venues have been successful. Some projects remain in an early planning stage. • After voters rejected a $90 million expansion in 2012, the Bismarck Event Center completed a scaled-down expansion in 2015 which doubled the size of its exhibit hall to 100,000 square feet. Changes in Competitive Venue Supply April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 32 • In 2015, voters rejected a $180 million expansion of the Rushmore Plaza Civic Center. There are no immediate plans to upgrade their convention center spaces. • Completed in 2017, an expansion to the Boise Centre nearly doubled its function space, adding a new facility, Boise Centre East, housing a 36,000 square-foot ballroom and 8 new meeting rooms. • Fargo is currently evaluating several options to develop a new Fargo Convention Center. • Yakima, Washington is currently evaluating an expansion of the Yakima Convention Center that would approximately double its size, including a new 51,000 square foot exhibit hall. A construction cost of $50 million came in $20 million higher than initial estimates. • Kennewick, Washington is hoping to add 50,000 square feet to the Three Rivers Convention Center along with other improvements to its public facilities. A proposal to add 0.2% sales tax to fund improvements will be on an August 2018 ballot. A similar effort failed to win a majority in 2016. • Missoula has recently announced plans for a mixed-use development, including a 10-story hotel building and 60,000 gross square foot conference center. Developers hope to break ground by late 2019. • Casper, Wyoming is evaluating the development of a new hotel conference center with up to 20,000 square feet of function space. The quality and proximity of hotel supply represents one of the most important selection factors for facility users. To attract out-of-town groups, an adequate supply of nearby hotel rooms should support the lodging needs of delegates, exhibitors, and other attendees. Event planners consider proximity and connectivity as critical factors when evaluating the overall hotel package. The number of rooms offered at adjacent or connected hotels is a key point of comparison. Other important factors include hotel brands, service levels, building conditions, management, ease of access, and available meeting and banquet spaces in these hotels. The figure below compares the number adjacent hotel rooms in the comparable venues. Adjacent Hotel Capacity April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 33 FIGURE 4-5 ADJACENT HOTEL ROOMS IN COMPARABLE VENUES Montana Convention Centers Proposed Bozeman Conference Center Bozeman 200 Hilton Garden Inn Missoula Missoula 146 Montana State Strand Union Building Bozeman 0 Helena Civic Center Helena 0 Proposed Missoula Conference Center Missoula 0 Proposed Billings Conference Center Billings 0 Average 173 Regional Convention Centers Boise Centre Boise 254 Radisson Hotel Cheyenne Cheyenne 245 Red Lion Hotel and Convention Center Billings 236 Fairmont Hot Springs Resort Butte 153 Wenatchee Convention Center Wenatchee 147 Hilton Garden Inn Kalispell Kalispell 144 Rushmore Plaza Civic Center Rapid City 0 Montana State Strand Union Building Bozeman 0 Casper Events Center Casper 0 Yakima Convention Center Yakima 0 Great Falls Civic Center Great Falls 0 Marian H. Rochelle Gateway Center Laramie 0 Lander Community & Convention Center Lander 0 Bismarck Event Center Bismarck 0 Average 197 Sources: Respective Venues The Hilton Garden Inn in Missoula is the only existing state competitor with an adjacent hotel property. Regionally, adjacent hotel room capacity ranges from 144 to 254 rooms. Bozeman would have a competitive advantage with 200 rooms adjacent to the convention center. City-wide convention events require the use of multiple hotels to accommodate convention attendees. The overall number of hotel rooms in the market provides and indicator of capacity to provide adequate room blocks for large events. The figure below shows the city-wide number of hotel rooms in comparable markets. City-Wide Hotel Supply April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 34 FIGURE 4-6 CITY-WIDE HOTEL ROOMS IN COMPARABLE MARKETS Destination Name City-wide Hotel Rooms Boise City, ID 5,510 Billings City, MT 4,840 Rapid City, SD 4,758 Fargo City, ND 4,631 Missoula City, MT 3,158 Bismarck City, ND 3,119 Cheyenne City, WY 2,797 Bozeman City, MT 2,396 Casper City, WY 2,344 Great Falls City, MT 2,283 Yakima City, WA 2,115 Kalispell City, MT 1,885 Helena City, MT 1,647 Laramie City, WY 1,402 Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 1,313 Wenatchee City, WA 1,187 With approximately 2,400 hotel rooms, Bozeman has a median capacity for city- wide events. Transportation links, including airports, play a critical role in the success of convention centers that target regional and national user groups. As one of the best indicators of an airport’s ability to enhance a convention center’s draw, air service capacity, generally measured as total annual passenger volume, indicates the relative convenience of a destination. The following figure presents 2017 passenger traffic data as measured by enplanements, for the primary airports serving the competitive markets. Air Service Capacity April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 35 FIGURE 4-7 ANNUAL AIRPORT ENPLANEMENTS City Airport Name Enplanements Boise Boise Airport 3,231,000 Bozeman Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport 1,200,000 Billings Billings Logan International Airport 833,000 Fargo Hector International Airport 788,000 Missoula Missoula International Airport 773,000 Rapid City Rapid City Regional Airport 596,000 Bismarck Bismarck Municipal Airport 544,000 Kalispell Glacier Park International Airport 539,000 Great Falls Great Falls International Airport 346,000 Helena Helena Regional Airport 210,000 Casper Natrona County International Airport 187,000 Laramie Natrona County International Airport 187,000 Lander Natrona County International Airport 187,000 Yakima Yakima Air Terminal-McAllister Field 144,000 Wenatchee Pangborn Memorial Airport 119,000 Butte Gunnison-Crested Butte Regional Airport 66,000 Cheyenne Cheyenne Regional Airport 4,000 Bozeman’s air access has surpassed all instate competitors and is second to Boise among regional destinations. Event planners primarily choose to place their events in a destination and secondarily in a venue. The availability of amenities that support tourist visitation and overall attractiveness of a destination play important roles event planner decisions. HVS used Esri Business Analyst Online (“Esri”) to compare the suitability of Bozeman as an event destination to competitive cities. Esri is a well-regarded forecasting service that applies geographic information system technology (“GIS”) to produce extensive demographic, consumer spending, and business data analyses. Esri employs a sophisticated location-based model to forecast economic and demographic trends. Esri models rely on U.S. census data, the American Community Survey, and other primary research. Using ESRI data, HVS ranked Bozeman on nine indicators of destination quality. • 2017 Total Population - Local area population data can provide evidence of a community’s overall size, ability to support public services and visitor amenities, and potential demand for local events. • 2017-2022 Annual Population Growth (%) – The projected annual percent growth in population indicates whether and how much the destination’s economy is likely to grow. Destination Analysis April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 36 • 2017 Median Household Income - Median household income provides an overall measure of community's well-being. It indicates a community’s ability to support and sustain a venue and its surrounding neighborhood and market. • 2017-2022 Annual Median Household Income Growth – The growth in median household income indicates the prospect for the future economic health of the destination. • Number of Businesses – The number of businesses indicates the level of corporate and industry presence. The density and breadth of a city’s corporate base indicates demand potential in the meetings industry. Businesses generate demand for conventions, conferences, training, and other industry-specific events. • Number of Employees – Employment levels indicate the overall size of the economy and its ability to support group meeting and tourist visitation. • Hotel and Lodging Sales – The quality and proximity of hotel supply represents one of the most important selection factors for facility users in recent years. To attract out-of-town groups, an adequate supply of nearby hotel rooms should support the lodging needs of delegates, exhibitors, and other attendees. Hotel and lodging sales indicates the presence and quality of lodging supply. • Food Service and Drinking Establishment Businesses– Total sales of food service and drinking establishments measures the presence of restaurants, bars and other outlets that support local and tourism visitation. • Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Businesses – Arts, entertainment and recreation business enhance the quality and attractiveness of a destination. The figures below rank Bozeman among the competitive cities on each of the criteria describe above. April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 37 FIGURE 4-8 COMPARABLE DESTINATION ANALYSIS 2017 Total Population 2017-2022 Annual Population Growth (%) Boise City, ID 225,405 Fargo City, ND 125,362 Billings City, MT 115,030 Yakima City, WA 94,112 Rapid City, SD 74,789 Bismarck City, ND 72,334 Missoula City, MT 71,840 Cheyenne City, WY 64,676 Casper City, WY 61,295 Great Falls City, MT 59,030 Bozeman City, MT 45,356 Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 34,740 Wenatchee City, WA 33,687 Laramie City, WY 33,191 Helena City, MT 29,788 Kalispell City, MT 21,558 Lander City, WY 7,412 2017-2022 Annual Population Growth (%)2017 Median Household Income Bozeman City, MT 2.42% Fargo City, ND 2.32% Bismarck City, ND 2.28% Boise City, ID 1.41% Rapid City, SD 1.34% Casper City, WY 1.28% Billings City, MT 1.18% Kalispell City, MT 1.13% Laramie City, WY 1.03% Missoula City, MT 1.02% Cheyenne City, WY 0.87% Wenatchee City, WA 0.81% Helena City, MT 0.71% Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 0.36% Yakima City, WA 0.35% Great Falls City, MT 0.20% Lander City, WY -0.54% 2017 Median Household Income Casper City, WY 57,358 Bismarck City, ND 55,919 Cheyenne City, WY 54,177 Lander City, WY 53,343 Boise City, ID 52,179 Billings City, MT 52,033 Helena City, MT 50,843 Fargo City, ND 50,798 Wenatchee City, WA 48,844 Rapid City, SD 48,513 Bozeman City, MT 46,776 Great Falls City, MT 44,677 Yakima City, WA 44,153 Laramie City, WY 42,329 Kalispell City, MT 42,145 Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 41,679 Missoula City, MT 41,197 2017-2022 Annual Median Household Income Growth Number of Businesses Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 4.88% Kalispell City, MT 4.75% Bozeman City, MT 4.37% Helena City, MT 3.49% Rapid City, SD 3.26% Bismarck City, ND 3.18% Fargo City, ND 3.11% Missoula City, MT 2.70% Great Falls City, MT 2.19% Casper City, WY 2.00% Cheyenne City, WY 1.69% Billings City, MT 1.54% Wenatchee City, WA 1.47% Yakima City, WA 1.42% Boise City, ID 1.12% Laramie City, WY 0.51% Lander City, WY 0.12% April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 38 Number of Businesses Number of Employees Boise City, ID 10,533 Billings City, MT 6,357 Fargo City, ND 6,003 Missoula City, MT 4,602 Bismarck City, ND 4,129 Rapid City, SD 4,092 Yakima City, WA 3,756 Cheyenne City, WY 3,246 Casper City, WY 3,011 Bozeman City, MT 2,981 Great Falls City, MT 2,878 Helena City, MT 2,569 Kalispell City, MT 1,817 Wenatchee City, WA 1,749 Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 1,722 Laramie City, WY 1,322 Lander City, WY 529 Number of Employees Hotel and Lodging Sales Boise City, ID 167,479 Fargo City, ND 107,714 Billings City, MT 86,797 Bismarck City, ND 62,043 Rapid City, SD 58,024 Missoula City, MT 56,600 Yakima City, WA 49,632 Cheyenne City, WY 45,733 Helena City, MT 37,696 Great Falls City, MT 37,155 Bozeman City, MT 36,717 Casper City, WY 33,089 Kalispell City, MT 24,524 Wenatchee City, WA 22,855 Laramie City, WY 19,054 Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 18,771 Lander City, WY 5,670 Hotel and Lodging Sales Food Service and Drinking Establishment Sales Rapid City, SD 138,844 Fargo City, ND 133,413 Cheyenne City, WY 131,937 Billings City, MT 123,820 Missoula City, MT 79,630 Boise City, ID 78,101 Bismarck City, ND 64,161 Casper City, WY 57,198 Bozeman City, MT 43,013 Kalispell City, MT 40,403 Yakima City, WA 39,507 Helena City, MT 37,715 Great Falls City, MT 35,087 Laramie City, WY 27,344 Wenatchee City, WA 26,419 Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 20,990 Lander City, WY 5,074 Food Service and Drinking Establishment Sales Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Businesses Boise City, ID 460,715 Fargo City, ND 386,268 Billings City, MT 290,494 Missoula City, MT 272,637 Rapid City, SD 217,281 Bismarck City, ND 191,227 Cheyenne City, WY 163,699 Bozeman City, MT 163,015 Yakima City, WA 145,136 Great Falls City, MT 139,432 Casper City, WY 130,034 Helena City, MT 95,911 Kalispell City, MT 78,572 Laramie City, WY 76,319 Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 66,292 Wenatchee City, WA 62,847 Lander City, WY 16,629 April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 39 Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Businesses Boise City, ID 193 Billings City, MT 173 Fargo City, ND 138 Missoula City, MT 123 Rapid City, SD 103 Great Falls City, MT 76 Cheyenne City, WY 73 Bozeman City, MT 69 Bismarck City, ND 58 Yakima City, WA 58 Casper City, WY 57 Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 53 Helena City, MT 52 Kalispell City, MT 36 Wenatchee City, WA 22 Laramie City, WY 20 Lander City, WY 16 While the Bozeman population ranks in the bottom third of destination, it has the highest projected population growth, which indicates long-term future growth as a meetings destination. Similarly, median household income is below the median, but promises to grow at 4.4% annually. Business presence, employment, and total sales fall within the mid-range of competitive cities. Reflecting its status as a tourism destination, Bozeman generates median hotel and lodging sales, which reflect seasonal occupancy and lower average daily room rates than larger cities. Bozeman offers a median level of good service and drinking establishments. Aggregating the rank on each of the destination criteria, Esri calculates an overall score for each destination. The figure below shows the overall rank of Bozeman among the competitive cities. Summary of Destination Indicators Destination Ranking April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 40 FIGURE 4-9 AGGREGATE RANK ON ALL DESTINATION CRITERIA Rank City Name Total Score 1 Boise City, ID 0.79 2 Fargo City, ND 0.71 3 Billings City, MT 0.61 4 Rapid City, SD 0.52 5 Bismarck City, ND 0.51 6 Cheyenne City, WY 0.44 7 Missoula City, MT 0.42 8 Bozeman City, MT 0.42 9 Casper City, WY 0.39 10 Helena City, MT 0.32 11 Yakima City, WA 0.28 12 Kalispell City, MT 0.27 13 Great Falls City, MT 0.27 14 Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 0.23 15 Wenatchee City, WA 0.21 16 Laramie City, WY 0.14 17 Lander City, WY 0.08 Among Montana cities, Bozeman ranks below Billings, is comparable to Missoula, and above Helena. It ranks in the median of all competitive cities. This assessment of destination appeal is based on certain objective criteria, but it does not assess the quality and attractiveness of the built environment. Compared to many destinations of similar size, Bozeman offers a more vibrant urban environment. The beauty of the surrounding natural environment and its proximity to ski resorts and Yellowstone National Park also distinguishes Bozeman from its competition. When analyzed in the context of the overall market characteristics, a study of comparable cities and venues indicates the appropriate building program for the proposed convention center. HVS concludes that Bozeman’s growing economy and tourism base warrants the development of new convention center space. When compared to the Montana market, the function spaces should be average in size and offer the maximum flexibility to event planners. But, the building program should not include a large dedicated exhibition space. The proximity of the attached dual- branded hotel will provide Bozeman with a competitive advantage over many of its competitors. Building Program Recommendations April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 41 HVS recommends the new proposed convention facility include a total of approximately 16,000 square feet of function space comprised of the following: FIGURE 4-10 BUILDING PROGRAM RECOMMENDATIONS Theatre Banquet Classroom Ballroom 10,000 1,110 570 690 Sub-Divisions Division 1 3,333 370 190 230 Division 2 3,333 370 190 230 Division 3 3,333 370 190 230 Meeting Rooms 5,000 560 290 340 Meeting Room Block 1 3,000 330 170 210 Divisions (3)1,000 110 60 70 Meeting Room Block 2 2,000 220 110 140 Divisions (3)667 70 40 50 Board Rooms (2)500 60 30 30 TOTAL FUNCTION SPACE 16,000 Capacities Total Area (SF)Event Space While site constraints and other design issues will affect the final layout of the ballroom space, HVS recommends that it be configured for maximum flexibility as shown in the figure below. Multi-Purpose/ Ballroom April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 42 RECOMMENDED MULTI-PURPOSE/BALLROOM CONFIGURATION Wrapping pre-function space around three sides of the ballroom allows maximum flexibility for events. Movable walls would allow for up to five divisions in the ballroom. A service corridor would separate back of house operations from attendee access. To allow for maximum flexibility as light exhibit, banquet, and meeting space, the multi-purpose ballroom should be carpeted with durable wall finishes and ceilings heights suitable for exhibit and banquet events. The ballroom should have convenient access to a main lobby and other pre-function spaces which are either stand-alone or shared with other function spaces. Service access should be such that each division of the multi-purpose hall has independent access allowing an event to take place in one division while another is being serviced for a separate event. Meeting space provides breakout space for larger conference and convention events and supports stand-alone meetings, as well as food and beverage functions. Meeting room blocks in areas should maintain a separation of attendee and service access. Pre-Function Area Service Corridor Attendee Entrance Service Entrance Movable Wall Meeting Spaces April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 43 We recommend 5,000 square feet of function space in two meeting room blocks of 3,000 and 2,000 square feet. Movable walls would allow each meeting room to divide into three sections. In addition to the function spaces provided above, the gross floor area included in the proposed convention center would include the following elements: • Lobby and Pre-function Areas – A well-appointed lobby and pre- function areas should provide event planners areas for greeting and registration, social gatherings, and well-defined public access to the multipurpose ballroom and meeting rooms. This space is also appropriate for stand-alone receptions, meals, and other community events. FIGURE 4-11 Event Space Frontage (ft) Depth (ft) Floor Area (sf) Ballroom 94 30 2,828 Meeting Rooms 67 20 1,333 Total Prefunction 4,162 • Circulation – Circulation space should provide for the movement of attendees into and through the venue. These areas would include and hallways, connecting walkways, and bridges as required. Depending on the concept plan, these areas could also include vertical circulation (stairwells, elevators, and escalators). • Service access – Service corridors should provide non-public access to the event hall and meeting rooms as well as connection to the facility’s loading docks, mechanical rooms, and storage. FIGURE 4-12 Event Space Back of House (ft) Depth (ft) Floor Area (sf) Ballroom 94 15 1,414 Meeting Rooms 67 15 1,000 Total 2,414 • Drop-off zone – The venue should have a well-defined vehicular drop- off area and pedestrian access solely for the uses of event attendees. Ancillary and Support Spaces April 13, 2018 Convention Center Development Recommendations Proposed Hotel & Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 44 • Loading areas – Service access separate from the drop-off zone, truck docks, and waste disposal areas necessary to support the venue. • Kitchen – Further investigation should determine the extent to which the main production kitchens could also serve the needs of the venue. At a minimum, the space should incorporate a pantry kitchen capable of accommodating [a single meal of 1,200 guests]. • Storage – Adequate and convenient equipment storage is important to the efficient operation of the facility. • Facility Operations – Spaces needed to support the facility’s physical plant, including HVAC, plumbing, electrical and fire protection systems. • Parking – the on-site capacity for parking should be determined in view of the amount of available off-site parking that could service the Convention Center. FIGURE 4-13 Support Space Total Area (SF)Notes FUNCTION SPACE 16,000 SUPPORT SPACE Prefunction Areas 4,200 Lineal feet of frontage times depth of pre-function space General Circulation 3,400 15%of total function space, pre function, and support spaces Service Corridors 2,400 Lineal feet of back of house times depth of corridor Kitchen/Commissary 2,600 16%of total Function space Public Restrooms 1,600 10%of total function space Administrative & Show Offices 1,500 One show office and administrative space Storage 2,500 10%of total function space, pre function, and support spaces Mechanical/Electrical Equipment 4,000 25%of total function space SUB-TOTAL SUPPORT SPACE 22,200 GROSS BUILDING FLOOR AREA 38,200 A more precise determination of the floor areas would require a concept plan created by a design firm that illustrates how the proposed venue alterations would fit on the site. The process of concept planning would likely require adjustments to the recommended floor areas. April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 45 5. Supply and Demand Analysis The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center’s local lodging market is most directly affected by the supply and demand trends within the immediate area. Other factors affecting the local market include changes in population, income, corporate offices, and communications technology. Changes in the national lodging market indirectly affect the local markets. HVS reviewed national lodging trends to provide a context for the forecast of the supply and demand for the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center’s competitive set. Smith Travel Research (“STR”) is an independent research firm that compiles data on the lodging industry. Figure 5-1 presents annual U.S. hotel occupancy and average rate data since 1987. Figure 5-2 illustrates hotel performance, categorized by geography, price point, type of location, and chain scale. RevPAR, the product of occupancy and average rate, provides a combined measure of rate and occupancy. The figure below shows the hotel occupancy, average rate, and RevPAR trends for the U.S. FIGURE 5-1 U.S. OCCUPANCY, AVERAGE RATE, AND REVPAR TRENDS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 ADR RevPAR Occupancy Source: STR National Hotel Market Trends April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 46 Following the significant RevPAR decline experienced during the last recession, demand growth resumed in 2010, led by select markets that had recorded growth trends in the fourth quarter of 2009. A return of business travel and some group activity contributed to these positive trends. The resurgence in demand was partly fueled by the significant price discounts that were widely available in the first half of 2010. These discounting policies were largely phased out in the latter half of the year, balancing much of the early rate loss. Demand growth remained strong, but decelerated from 2011 through 2013, increasing at rates of 4.7%, 2.8%, and 2.0%, respectively. Demand growth then surged to 4.0% in 2014, driven by a strong economy, a robust oil and gas sector, and limited new supply, among other factors. By 2014, occupancy had surpassed the 64% mark. Average rate rebounded similarly during this time, bracketing 4.0% annual gains from 2011 through 2014. In 2015, demand growth continued to outpace supply growth, a relationship that has been in place since 2010. With a 2.9% increase in room nights, the nation's occupancy level reached a record high of 65.4% in 2015. Supply growth intensified modestly in 2015 (at 1.1%), following annual supply growth levels of 0.7% and 0.9% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Average rate posted another strong year of growth, at 4.7% in 2015, in pace with the annual growth of the last four years. Robust job growth, heightened group and leisure travel, and waning price- sensitivity all contributed to the gains. In 2016, occupancy showed virtually no change, as demand growth kept pace with supply additions. Occupancy then moved even higher in 2017, to a new peak of 65.9%. Average rate increased roughly 3% and 2% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. By year-end 2017, the net change in RevPAR was 3.0%, reflecting a healthy lodging market overall. Year-to- date statistics through February 2018 show this trend continuing, with a 0.6-point occupancy increase, while average rate increased by just over $2.00, resulting in a 3.2% upward change in RevPAR. April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 47 FIGURE 5-2 COMPARISON OF U.S. REVPAR FEBRUARY 2018 VERSUS 2017 Hotel Type 2018 RevPAR Percent Change from 2017 United States $72.30 3.2% Region Pacific $109.48 3.4% South Atlantic 80.65 3.0% Mountain 76.41 1.2% Middle Atlantic 76.39 5.4% New England 64.23 3.6% West South Central 60.43 3.0% East North Central 47.75 3.5% East South Central 46.41 1.3% West North Central 44.41 6.0% Class Luxury $191.76 3.7% Upper-Upscale 117.07 0.9% Upscale 89.22 2.2% Upper-Midscale 64.36 2.9% Midscale 45.92 3.6% Economy 34.57 5.0% Location Resort $127.54 3.7% Urban 103.25 0.9% Airport 80.39 2.2% Suburban 63.35 2.9% Small Metro/Town 44.08 3.6% Interstate 37.98 5.0% Chain Scale Luxury $234.36 4.4% Upper-Upscale 121.66 0.9% Upscale 90.99 2.0% Independents 67.54 3.8% Upper-Midscale 62.88 2.9% Midscale 41.70 3.4% Economy 29.61 5.1% Source: STR - February 2018 Lodging Review The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center’s local lodging market is most directly affected by the supply and demand trends within the immediate area. April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 48 HVS selected a list of local hotels that would compete on a primary or secondary basis with the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. Seven properties would compete with the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center on a primary basis and seven properties on a secondary basis, for a total of 14 competitors. We weighted the room count of each secondary competitor based on its projected competitiveness. The following map illustrates the location of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center and its future primary and secondary competitors. MAP OF COMPETITION BY HVS Defining the Competitive Set April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 49 HVS relied on STR data and market research to determine the room count of each hotel. The weighted competitive set currently includes 801 rooms in primary competitors and 530 rooms in the secondary competitors. We applied competitive weights to the secondary competitors as shown in the figure below for a weighted room count of 367. FIGURE 5-3 THE WEIGHTED COMPETITIVE SET Hotel Number of Rooms Competitive Level Weighted Room Count Primary Competitors Holiday Inn Bozeman 177 100%177 Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 123 100%123 Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 120 100%120 Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 115 100%115 Element Bozeman 104 100%104 Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 102 100%102 SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 60 100%60 Sub-total 801 801 Secondary Competitors Comfort Inn 121 80%97 Comfort Suites 80 80%64 Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites West 86 70%60 Country Inn & Suites By Carlson 79 60%47 Hampton Inn 70 60%42 Fairfield Inn by Marriott 56 60%34 Lark Bozeman 38 60%23 Sub-total 530 367 Totals 1,331 1,168 Sources: STR and HVS Our survey of the primarily competitive hotels in the local market shows a range of lodging types and facilities. We inspected and evaluated each competitor. The figure below presents a summary of operating performance for the primary competitors for the past two years. Primary Competitors April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 50 FIGURE 5-4 PERFORMANCE OF THE PRIMARY COMPETITIVE SET Property Rooms ADR RevPAR ADR RevPAR Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 120 65 - 70 %$105 - $110 $70 - $75 55 - 60 %$100 - $105 $60 - $65 Element Bozeman 104 85 - 90 150 - 160 130 - 140 80 - 85 160 - 170 140 - 150 Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 123 75 - 80 130 - 140 105 - 110 75 - 80 130 - 140 105 - 110 Holiday Inn Bozeman 177 80 - 85 85 - 90 65 - 70 80 - 85 85 - 90 70 - 75 Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 102 75 - 80 140 - 150 105 - 110 75 - 80 140 - 150 110 - 115 Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 115 70 - 75 125 - 130 90 - 95 75 - 80 125 - 130 95 - 100 SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 60 — — — 75 - 80 150 - 160 115 - 120 Totals 801 77.2%$117 $90 77.1%$125 $97 Estimated 2016 Estimated 2017 Occ.Occ. Sources: STR and HVS HVS ranked the primary competitors on four criteria related to the attractiveness of the property to potential customers. 1. Access – the ease with which customers can gain vehicular or pedestrian access to the property. Simple and direct access routes are rated higher than more complicated routes. 2. Visibility – is particularly important to hotels that attract walk-in customers who do not have prior reservations. Signage and building facades typically provide visibility. 3. Neighborhood – means the quality of the surrounding neighborhood, the compatibility of adjacent land uses, and the perceived safety of the neighborhood. 4. Physical condition – refers to the overall physical condition of the hotel. Based on an inspection of each property, HVS rated the physical condition of each hotel in comparison to other hotels of a similar scale or class. Each criterion was rated from one to five, with one indicating very poor compliance with the criteria and five meaning excellent compliance. The figure below summarizes the results of the rankings for each criterion and shows an aggregate rating that is the average of all criteria. April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 51 FIGURE 5-5 RANK OF PRIMARY COMPETITORS ON CUSTOMER SELECTION CRITERIA* Access Access Visibility Neighbor- hood Physical Condition Aggregate Rating Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 4 5 5 4 4.50 Element Bozeman 4 5 5 4 4.50 Proposed Headquarters Hotel 4 4 4 5 4.25 SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 4 4 4 4 4.00 Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 4 4 4 4 4.00 Holiday Inn Bozeman 4 4 4 4 4.00 Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 4 4 4 3 3.75 Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 4 3 4 3 3.50 *Ranked on a Scale of 1 to 5 where: 1 = Very Poor, 2 = Poor, 3 = Average, 4 = Good, 5 = Excellent The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center customer selection criteria rankings are above average compared to the primary competitors. The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center ranks well on physical condition due to new construction. The visibility and neighborhood rank could change based on the site selected by the developer. We also reviewed other area lodging facilities to determine whether any may compete with the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center on a secondary basis. The room count of each secondary competitor has been weighted based on its assumed degree of competitiveness with the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. By assigning degrees of competitiveness, we can assess how the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center and its future competitors may react to various changes in the market, including new supply, changes to demand generators, and renovations or franchise changes of existing supply. We identified seven hotels that would compete with the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center on a secondary level. The Comfort Inn, the Comfort Suites, Country Inn & Suites By Carlson, Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Hampton Inn, and Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites West are anticipated to be competitive by location and quality; however the lack of significant meeting space, dining facilities, or type of hotel causes them to be secondary competitors. The Lark Bozeman is the only luxury hotel in the market, which makes it a secondary competitor due to superior quality. The following figure sets forth the pertinent operating characteristics of the combined secondary competitors. Secondary Competitors April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 52 FIGURE 5-6 RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE SECONDARY COMPETITIVE SET Property Number of Rooms Weighting Weighted Rooms ADR RevPAR ADR RevPAR Comfort Inn 121 80%97 60 - 65 %$85 - $90 $50 - $55 60 - 65 %$85 - $90 $50 - $55 Comfort Suites 80 80%64 75 - 80 110 - 115 85 - 90 75 - 80 115 - 120 85 - 90 Country Inn & Suites By Carlson 79 60%47 65 - 70 110 - 115 75 - 80 65 - 70 110 - 115 75 - 80 Fairfield Inn by Marriott 56 60%34 55 - 60 115 - 120 65 - 70 55 - 60 120 - 125 70 - 75 Hampton Inn 70 60%42 75 - 80 115 - 120 85 - 90 70 - 75 120 - 125 90 - 95 Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites 86 70%60 65 - 70 110 - 115 75 - 80 65 - 70 115 - 120 80 - 85 Lark Bozeman 38 60%23 65 - 70 200 - 210 140 - 150 65 - 70 210 - 220 140 - 150 Totals 530 367 68.4%$112 $77 68.9%$114 $79 Estimated 2016 Occ. Estimated 2017 Occ. The figure below summarizes aggregate competitive set performance in the base year. Performance analyses include guest room count, occupancy rate, average daily room rate (“ADR”), and revenue per available room, (“RevPAR”). RevPAR, a common hotel industry performance metric, is the product of occupancy rate and ADR. Since 2017 was the most recent complete year of available data at the time of this study, we used it as the base year of our analysis. Historical Supply and Demand Data April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 53 FIGURE 5-7 THE WEIGHTED COMPETITIVE SET HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE Room Count Secondary Competitors 367 Holiday Inn Bozeman 177 Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 123 Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 120 Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 115 Element Bozeman 104 Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 102 SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 90 Occupancy Element Bozeman 80 - 85% Holiday Inn Bozeman 80 - 85% Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 75 - 80% Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 75 - 80% Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 75 - 80% SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 75 - 80% Secondary Competitors 69% Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 55 - 60% ADR Element Bozeman $160 - $170 SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman $150 - $160 Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman $140 - $150 Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman $130 - $140 Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman $125 - $130 Secondary Competitors $114 Best Western Plus GranTree Inn $100 - $105 Holiday Inn Bozeman $85 - $90 RevPAR Element Bozeman $140 - $150 SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman $115 - $120 Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman $110 - $115 Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman $105 - $110 Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman $95 - $100 Secondary Competitors $79 Holiday Inn Bozeman $70 - $75 Best Western Plus GranTree Inn $60 - $65 Sources: STR and HVS The figure below shows year-to-date through January occupancy and average daily room rates compared to the prior year for the competitive hotels. April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 54 FIGURE 5-8 YEAR-TO-DATE THROUGH JANUARY 2017 2018 Percent Change Occupancy 61.3%61.4%0.1% ADR $90.71 $90.55 -0.2% Room Night Demand 24,168 25,911 7.2% Source: STR The competitive hotel’s occupancy did not materially change, and ADR did not materially change over the 2017 levels. Room night demand grew as the additional room night supply from the recently opened Springhill Suites was absorbed by the market. Market penetration measures how an individual hotel property performs in comparison to the market as a whole. Occupancy penetration is the occupancy of the hotel divided by the market occupancy. Yield penetration is the RevPAR of a hotel divided by the RevPAR of the market. A penetration factor greater than one indicates a property is performing better than the market. A penetration factor less than one indicates that a property is underperforming in the market. The following figure shows occupancy and yield penetrations of the hotels in the competitive set. Occupancy and Yield Penetration April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 55 FIGURE 5-9 OCCUPANCY AND YIELD PENETRATION Occupancy Penetration Element Bozeman 110 - 120% Holiday Inn Bozeman 110 - 120% Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 100 - 110% Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 100 - 110% Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 100 - 110% SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 100 - 110% Secondary Competitors 92% Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 75 - 80% Yield Penetration Element Bozeman 150 - 160% SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 120 - 130% Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 120 - 130% Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 110 - 120% Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 100 - 110% Secondary Competitors 86% Holiday Inn Bozeman 75 - 80% Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 60 - 65% Sources: STR and HVS The hotel market shows significant seasonal variation, with summer displaying the highest average daily rates and occupancy and winter with the lowest average daily rates and occupancy, as shown in the following figure. FIGURE 5-10 SEASONALITY GRAPH OF THE WEIGHTED COMPETITIVE SET $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Occupancy ADR Source: STR Seasonality April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 56 Group demand is strongest in the spring and fall months, and tourists drive transient demand during its peak in the summer months. STR data have certain limitations. Hotels are occasionally added to or removed from the sample and not every property reports data in a consistent and timely manner; these factors can influence the overall quality of the information by skewing the results. These inconsistencies may also cause the STR data to differ from the results of our competitive survey. Nonetheless, STR data provide the best indication of aggregate growth or decline in existing supply and demand; thus, these trends have been considered in our analysis. The figure below shows the historical performance of the competitive set including the occupancy rates, ADR, and RevPAR. FIGURE 5-11 HISTORICAL ROOM NIGHT DEMAND, ADR, AND REVPAR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ADR RevPAR Occupancy Source: STR These data reflect an overall market occupancy level of 73.9% in 2017, an increase from 73.7% for 2016. The overall average occupancy level for the period shown in the above figure was 68%. The economic downturn of 2008 through 2010 resulted in lower demand and occupancy rates in the market. Occupancy increased in 2011, and 2012, but fell modestly in 2013. Growth returned in 2014 and continued through 2017. The overall market average rate increased to $123.99 in 2017 from $118.55 for 2016. The average rate across to the period was $103.21 but has fluctuated from a low of $89.58 to a high of $123.99 from 2008 to 2017. Rates have been increasing from 2010 levels including growth in 2017, which had the highest rate from 2008 to 2017. These occupancy and average rate trends resulted in a RevPAR level of $91.65 in 2017. Historical Market Performance April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 57 A review of the trends in occupancy, average rate, and RevPAR by the night of the week over the past three fiscal years provides some insight into the impact that the current economic conditions have had on the competitive lodging market. The figure below shows the data provided by Smith Travel Research. FIGURE 5-12 OCCUPANCY AND AVERAGE RATE BY DAY OF WEEK $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Occupancy ADR Source: STR Leisure travelers and non-business-related groups generate high occupancy on Friday and Saturday nights. Commercial travel generates strong demand on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights. The peak rate is on Friday and Saturday nights, which is not typical for most hotel markets, where peak rates often correspond to high midweek demand. New hotels may affect the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center’s operating performance. The figures below summarize our assumptions regarding new supply. FIGURE 5-13 NEW SUPPLY Year Proposed Property Competitive Weight Proposed Rooms Weighted Room Count Cumulative Weighted Room Count 2019 Residence Inn 100%105 105 105 2020 Focus-Service Dual Branded Hotel 100%120 120 225 2020 Extended-Stay Dual Branded Hotel 100%80 80 305 2021 Home2Suites 100%105 105 410 2021 Soft Brand Hotel 40%75 30 440 Weekly Patterns of Lodging Demand Supply Changes April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 58 FIGURE 5-14 EXPANDING HOTELS Year Property Competitive Weight Proposed Expansion Weighted Room Count 2019 Lark Bozeman 60%24 14 Other potential new hotels were not factored directly into our analysis due to their location, market orientation, and size. Though not directly competitive, new hotel supply could affect absorption of room night demand in the competitive set. The Bozeman area will experience substantial growth in room supply. While we have taken reasonable steps to investigate proposed hotel projects and their status, due to the nature of real estate development, it is impossible to determine with certainty every hotel that would open in the future. Future improvement in market conditions would raise the risk of increased competition. Our forecasts reflect this risk. The following figure presents data on the performance of the weighted competitive set. HVS estimated performance results and in some cases weighted data on secondary competitors. In this respect, this information differs from the previously presented STR data. FIGURE 5-15 WEIGHTED COMPETITIVE SET RECENT MARKET PERFORMANCE Year Accommodated Room Nights Room Nights Available Competitive Hotels Occupancy Competitive Hotels ADR Competitive Hotels RevPAR Amount 2015 256,000 364,000 70.3%$113.51 $79.83 2016 281,000 379,000 74.1%$115.35 $85.52 2017 318,000 426,000 74.6%$122.13 $91.17 Percent Change 2016 9.8%4.1%5.4%1.6%7.1% 2017 13.2%12.4%0.7%5.9%6.6% For the purpose of the demand analysis, the overall market is divided into three segments based on the nature of travel. Based on our fieldwork and knowledge of the local lodging market, we estimate the 2017 distribution of accommodated room night demand as shown in the figure below. Demand Demand Analysis Using Market Segmentation April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 59 FIGURE 5-16 ACCOMMODATED ROOM NIGHT DEMAND Market Segment Room Nights Commercial 150,021 47% Leisure 110,237 35% Meeting and Group 57,349 18% Total 317,607 100% Percent of Total Demand The commercial segment is the largest, generating 47% of total room night demand. Next, we discuss the individual market segments. Commercial demand (47% of total demand) is mainly individual business people passing through the subject market or visiting area businesses, in addition to high- volume corporate accounts generated by local firms. Brand loyalty (particularly frequent-traveler programs), as well as location and convenience with respect to businesses and amenities, influence lodging choices in this segment. Companies typically designate hotels as “preferred” accommodations in return for more favorable rates. Commercial demand is strongest Monday through Thursday nights, declines significantly on Friday and Saturday, and increases somewhat on Sunday night. In markets where the weekday occupancy often exceeds 90%, some unaccommodated commercial demand is likely to be present. It is relatively constant throughout the year, with marginal declines in late December and during other holiday periods. Primary commercial demand generators for this market include major corporate offices in the area, as well as the government sector, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Additionally, construction companies, Montana State University, and healthcare practitioners visiting Bozeman Health Deaconess Hospital generate high levels of demand within this market. Continued growth in the market from high-tech companies, as well as the continued increase in enrollment at MSU, should support growth within this segment in the near term. Leisure demand (35% of total demand) is from individuals and families spending time in an area or passing through en route to other destinations. Travel purposes include sightseeing, recreation, or visiting friends and relatives. Leisure demand also includes room nights booked through Internet sites such as Expedia, hotels.com, and Priceline; however, leisure may not be the purpose of the stay. This demand may also include business travelers and group and convention attendees who use these channels to take advantage of any discounts that may be available on these sites. Leisure demand is strongest Friday and Saturday nights and all week during holiday periods and the summer months. These peak periods Commercial Demand Leisure Demand April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 60 represent the inverse of commercial visitation trends, underscoring the stabilizing effect of capturing weekend and summer tourist travel. Future leisure demand is related to the overall economic health of the region and the nation. Trends showing changes in state and regional unemployment and disposable personal income correlate strongly with leisure travel levels. The typical length of stay ranges from one to four days, depending on the destination and travel purpose, and the rate of double occupancy typically ranges from 1.8 to 2.5 people per room. Price sensitivity tends to vary with the product type. All-suite properties with inclusive food and beverage would tend to drive strong leisure room rates while highway properties with limited amenities typically offer more discounted leisure room rates. Leisure demand for this market is primarily generated by Yellowstone National Park, as well as by those visiting friends and family in the area. Bozeman is considered the closest major city to the park, which is located less than 100 miles to the south. Leisure demand is also generated by the numerous outdoor activities for tourists to take advantage of, such as rafting, hiking, fishing, and skiing. We expect growth to occur within this segment in the near term, as nonstop flights to the market allow for additional visitors over the shoulder periods and economic conditions remain strong. The meeting and group demand (18% of total demand) include meetings, seminars, conventions, trade shows, and similar gatherings of ten or more people. Peak convention demand typically occurs in the spring and fall. Although there are numerous classifications within the meeting and group segment, the primary categories considered in this analysis are corporate groups, associations, and SMERFE (social, military, ethnic, religious, fraternal, and educational) groups. Corporate groups typically meet during the business week most commonly in the spring and fall months. These groups often are the most profitable for hotels, as they typically pay higher rates and usually generate ancillary revenues including food, beverage, and banquet revenue. SMERFE groups are typically price-sensitive and tend to meet on weekends or during the summer months or holiday season when greater discounts are usually available. They generate limited ancillary revenues. The profile and revenue potential of associations varies depending on the group and the purpose of their meeting or event. Meeting and group demand in Bozeman is generated by many sources, with corporate groups being the most prevalent. The same companies that create commercial demand also generate group demand through training activities and social corporate events. MSU generates large amounts of group demand twice a year for graduation, as well as in the fall during football season for home games. High school and collegiate sports tournaments, such as the All Class Volleyball Meeting and Group Demand April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 61 Tournament and Class A Boys and Girls Basketball Tournament, annually sell out the market. Additionally, SMERFE groups and social events, such as weddings and family reunions, also contribute to this demand segment. We expect growth to occur within this segment in the near term. The purpose of segmenting the lodging market is to define each major type of demand, identify customer characteristics, and estimate future growth trends. HVS determines the size of the existing competitive set of hotels. Next, HVS allocates room night demand into market segments. HVS applies growth rates to determine the level of future demand. HVS based demand growth rate estimates on interviews with hotel managers, assessment of data on occupancy trends, economic and demographic data, and identification of demand generators. The figure below shows estimated growth rates by market segment. FIGURE 5-17 ESTIMATED ANNUAL GROWTH RATES BY MARKET SEGMENT Segment 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Average Commercial 2.5%5.0%5.0%4.0%2.5%1.5%3.4% Meeting and Group 2.0%3.0%10.0%5.0%2.5%1.5%4.0% Leisure 2.5%5.0%5.0%4.0%2.5%1.5%3.4% Weighted Overall Change 2.4%4.6%5.9%4.2%2.5%1.5%3.5% Latent demand reflects potential room night demand that has not been realized by the existing competitive supply. Unaccommodated demand and induced demand make up latent demand. Unaccommodated demand refers to individuals who are unable to secure accommodations in the market because all the local hotels are filled. These travelers must defer their trips, settle for less desirable accommodations, or stay in properties located outside the market area. Because this demand did not yield occupied room nights, it is not included in the estimate of historically accommodated room night demand. If additional lodging facilities are expected to enter the market, it is reasonable to assume that these guests would be able to secure hotel rooms in the future, and it is, therefore, necessary to quantify this demand. The seasonality of the market indicates that although year-end occupancy may not average more than 70%, the market sells out many nights during the year indicating unaccommodated demand. The primary source of unaccommodated demand is the popular summer season, which has historically had the highest Estimated Demand Growth by Market Segment Latent Demand Unaccommodated Demand April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 62 occupancy rates. The following figure presents our estimate of unaccommodated demand in the subject market. FIGURE 5-18 UNACCOMMODATED DEMAND ESTIMATE Market Segment Total Room Nights % of Total Leisure 110,237 15.1%16,649 Meeting and Group 57,349 7.3%4,162 Total 317,607 6.6%20,812 Room Nights Utilizing monthly and weekly peak demand and sell-out trends, we estimate that 6.6% of the base-year demand is unaccommodated. Induced demand represents the additional room nights that are expected to be attracted to the market following the introduction of a new demand generator. Situations that can result in induced demand include the opening of a new manufacturing plant, the expansion of a convention center, or the addition of a new hotel with a distinct chain affiliation or unique facilities. Induced demand has been accounted for in general market growth rates. Using historical room night demand as a starting point and applying the previously discussed assumptions, HVS estimated room night demand in the competitive set by market segment as shown in the figure below. FIGURE 5-19 ROOM NIGHT DEMAND BY MARKET SEGMENT Market Segment Room Nights Commercial 150,021 47% Leisure 110,237 35% Meeting and Group 57,349 18% Total 317,607 100% Percent of Total Demand Four variables make up accommodated demand: 1) base demand—sources currently generating room nights, 2) previously unaccommodated demand absorbed due to growth in room supply, and 3) induced demand that is new to the market. These estimates are adjusted by 4) residual demand—the estimated number of room nights not accommodated due to supply constraints. The figure below breaks down room night demand by these sources. Induced Demand Accommodated Demand and Market- wide Occupancy April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 63 FIGURE 5-20 ANNUAL ROOM NIGHT DEMAND BY SOURCE Source 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Base Accommodated 318,000 325,000 340,000 360,000 375,000 385,000 391,000 391,000 Previously Unaccommodated 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 26,000 26,000 Total Available Demand 339,000 346,000 361,000 381,000 396,000 406,000 417,000 417,000 (Less Residual Demand)(21,000)(20,000)(21,000)(8,000)(1,000)0 (2,000)(2,000) Total Accommodated Demand 318,000 326,000 340,000 373,000 395,000 406,000 415,000 415,000 Accommodated Demand Change 13.1%2.7%4.9%9.9%6.2%2.7%1.2%0.0% Available Room Night Change 12.5%2.5%6.3%19.1%8.9%0.0%0.0%0.0% Marketwide Occupancy 74%75%74%68%66%68%69%69% Over the projection period, room night demand is estimated to grow at a compound average annual rate of 5.3%. HVS used these demand projections to forecast the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center's occupancy and average rate. Along with average rate results, the occupancy levels achieved by the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would be the foundation of the property's financial performance. To a certain degree, management can manipulate the level of occupancy. For example, hotel operators may choose to lower rates in an effort to maximize occupancy. Our forecasts reflect an operating strategy that we believe would be implemented by a typical professional hotel management team to achieve an optimal mix of occupancy and average rate. The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center's forecasted market share and occupancy levels are based upon its anticipated competitive position within the market, as quantified by its penetration rate. The penetration rate is the ratio of a property's market share to its fair share. A hotel achieves a fair share when its share of occupied room nights equals its share of available room nights. HVS analyzed the market penetration of each of the properties in the competitive set. The following figure ranks the market penetration of each hotel by market segment. Projections of Occupancy and Average Rate Penetration Rate Analysis Market Penetration April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 64 FIGURE 5-21 HISTORICAL OCCUPANCY PENETRATION RATES Commercial Penetration Element Bozeman 143% Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 112% Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 112% Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 109% Secondary Competition 109% Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 94% SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 86% Holiday Inn Bozeman 44% Meeting and Group Penetration Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 134% Element Bozeman 126% Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 115% Secondary Competition 106% Holiday Inn Bozeman 104% Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 59% Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 59% SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 57% Leisure Penetration Holiday Inn Bozeman 203% SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 147% Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 122% Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 122% Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 89% Element Bozeman 69% Secondary Competition 63% Best Western Plus GranTree Inn 35% The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would over penetrate the commercial segment due to new build, high quality, and the extended-stay portion of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would over-penetrate the meeting and group segment due to the largest amount of meeting space in the market. The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center will over penetrate the leisure segment due to the quality of the hotel and large room size in the extended-stay portion of the property. The figure below shows our estimates of market penetration of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. April 13, 2018 Supply and Demand Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 65 FIGURE 5-22 OCCUPANCY PENETRATION OF THE PROPOSED HOTEL AND CONVENTION CENTER Meeting and Group 131% Leisure 108% Commercial 107% We estimate that the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would achieve 111.9% overall occupancy penetration in a stabilized year of operation (2022). As is typical of new hotels, it may take several years to ramp-up to its stabilized occupancy level. HVS assumes a three-year ramp up, after the opening of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. At stabilization in 2022, the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center could achieve an occupancy rate as shown in the figure below. FIGURE 5-23 PROPOSED HOTEL AND CONVENTION CENTER ROOM NIGHT ABSORPTION AND OCCUPANCY ESTIMATES 2020 2021 2022 2023 Available Room Nights 73,000 73,000 73,000 73,000 Absorption by Segment Commercial 22,200 23,000 23,400 23,600 Meeting and Group 11,100 11,900 12,100 12,300 Leisure 19,200 19,700 20,100 20,200 Total Absorption 52,500 54,600 55,600 56,100 Projected Occupancy 72%75%76%76% Percent Segmentation Commercial 42%42%42%42% Meeting and Group 21%22%22%22% Leisure 37%36%36%36% The stabilized occupancy reflects the anticipated results of the property over its remaining economic life, given all changes in the life cycle of the hotel. Thus, the stabilized occupancy excludes from consideration any abnormal relationship between supply and demand, as well as any nonrecurring conditions that may result in unusually high or low occupancies. Although the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center may operate at occupancies above this stabilized level, new competition, and temporary economic downturns could force the occupancy below our stabilized projection. April 13, 2018 Average Rate Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 66 6. Average Rate Analysis The average rate is calculated by dividing the total rooms revenue achieved during a specified period by the number of rooms sold during the same period. The projected average rate and the anticipated occupancy percentage are used to forecast rooms revenue, which in turn provides the basis for estimating most other income and expense categories. Although average rate and occupancy are highly correlated, one cannot project occupancy without making specific assumptions regarding average rate. Revenue per available room (“RevPAR”) reflects a property's ability to maximize rooms revenue. The following figure summarizes the historical average rate and the RevPAR of the subject property’s future primary competitors. FIGURE 6-1 BASE-YEAR AVERAGE RATE AND REVPAR OF THE COMPETITORS Property 2017 Average Room Rate ADR Penetration RevPAR RevPAR Penetration Best Western Plus GranTree Inn $100 - $105 82%$60.00 66% Element Bozeman 160 - 170 138%142.80 157% Hilton Garden Inn Bozeman 130 - 140 113%106.26 117% Holiday Inn Bozeman 85 - 90 70%70.13 77% Homewood Suites by Hilton Bozeman 140 - 150 116%112.18 123% Residence Inn by Marriott Bozeman 125 - 130 103%99.54 109% SpringHill Suites by Marriott Bozeman 150 - 160 125%116.28 128% Average - Primary Competitors $125.40 103%$96.64 106% Average - Secondary Competitors 114.13 93%78.58 86% Overall Average $122.13 $90.97 The defined primary competitive market realized an overall average rate of $125.40 in the 2017 base year, improving from the 2016 level of $117.06. The following figure illustrates the assumed projected average rate and the growth rates for the proposed focus-service hotel. As a context for the average rate growth factors, note that we have applied a base underlying inflation rate of 2.5% annually throughout our projection period. The projected ADR for the focus-service hotel is prior to the discount of 3% in 2021 and 1% in 2022 during the stabilization period. Average Rate Analysis Competitive Position April 13, 2018 Average Rate Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 67 FIGURE 6-2 COMPETITIVE HOTELS AND PROPOSED HOTEL AND CONVENTION CENTER AVERAGE RATE FORECAST FOCUS- SERVICE HOTEL Year Focus- Service Extended- Stay Average Rate Base Year 74.5 %— $122.13 — — $170.00 $145.00 $160.00 1.310 % 2018 74.6 3.0 %125.79 — 3.0 %175.10 149.35 164.80 1.310 2019 73.6 2.5 128.94 — 2.5 179.48 153.08 168.92 1.310 2020 67.9 2.5 132.16 72.0 %2.5 183.96 156.91 173.14 1.310 2021 66.2 2.5 135.47 75.0 2.5 188.56 160.83 177.47 1.310 2022 67.9 2.5 138.85 76.0 2.5 193.28 164.85 181.91 1.310 2023 68.7 2.5 142.32 76.0 2.5 198.11 168.98 186.46 1.310 2024 68.7 2.5 145.88 76.0 2.5 203.06 173.20 191.12 1.310 Occupancy Competitive Hotels (Calendar Year)Proposed Focus-Service Hotel Rates (Calendar Year) Average Rate Growth Average Rate Penetration Average Rate Growth Average Rate Occupancy A 3.0% rate of change is expected for the subject property's 2017 base year room rate in 2018 supported by the 4.6% increase in ADR in 2017, and 4.9% average annual increase over the last five years. HVS projects growth rates of 2.5% and 2.5% in 2019 and 2020, respectively as the market absorbs recent increases supply and projected increases in supply. The proposed focus-service hotel would achieve a stabilized penetration rate of 131.0% by the stabilized period. The following figure illustrates the assumed projected average rate and the growth rates for the proposed extended-stay hotel. As a context for the average rate growth factors, note that we have applied a base underlying inflation rate of 2.5% annually throughout our projection period. The projected ADR for the extended- stay hotel is prior to the discount of 3% in 2021 and 1% in 2022 during the stabilization period. April 13, 2018 Average Rate Analysis Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 68 FIGURE 6-3 COMPETITIVE HOTELS AND PROPOSED HOTEL AND CONVENTION CENTER AVERAGE RATE FORECAST EXTENDED- STAY SERVICE Year Focus- Service Extended- Stay Average Rate Base Year 74.5 %— $122.13 — — $170.00 $145.00 $160.00 1.310 % 2018 74.6 3.0 %125.79 — 3.0 %175.10 149.35 164.80 1.310 2019 73.6 2.5 128.94 — 2.5 179.48 153.08 168.92 1.310 2020 67.9 2.5 132.16 72.0 %2.5 183.96 156.91 173.14 1.310 2021 66.2 2.5 135.47 75.0 2.5 188.56 160.83 177.47 1.310 2022 67.9 2.5 138.85 76.0 2.5 193.28 164.85 181.91 1.310 2023 68.7 2.5 142.32 76.0 2.5 198.11 168.98 186.46 1.310 2024 68.7 2.5 145.88 76.0 2.5 203.06 173.20 191.12 1.310 Occupancy Competitive Hotels (Calendar Year)Proposed Focus-Service Hotel Rates (Calendar Year) Average Rate Growth Average Rate Penetration Average Rate Growth Average Rate Occupancy A 3.0% rate of change is expected for the subject property's 2017 base year room rate in 2018 supported by the 4.6% increase in ADR in 2017, and 4.9% average annual increase over the last five years. HVS projects growth rates of 2.5% and 2.5% in 2019 and 2020, respectively as the market absorbs recent increases supply and projected increases in supply. The proposed extended-stay hotel would achieve a stabilized penetration rate of 1.187% by the stabilized period. April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 69 7. Projection of Income and Expense HVS used its forecast of room night demand and average rates to calculate the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center’s room revenue. HVS forecast the income and expenses for the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. The number of guests drives other revenue sources of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center such as food, beverages, and telephone income. Many expense levels also vary with occupancy. We assume operation would begin on January 1, 2020. The forecast of income and expense is first estimated in the base year then expressed in current dollars for each operating year. The stabilized year reflects the anticipated operating results of the property over its remaining economic life. Thus, income and expense estimates from the stabilized year forward exclude from consideration any abnormal relationship between supply and demand, as well as any nonrecurring conditions that may result in unusual revenues or expenses. The projections of income and expense for the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center rely on comparable operating statements from the HVS database. We carefully selected comparable operating statements based on similarities with the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center including room count, property type, location in urban markets, amounts of function space, occupancy rates, and average daily room rates. A full year’s data on each property is available within the last three years. The following figure shows the room count, occupancy, average rate, and RevPAR of the comparable hotel properties and compares them with the focus-service hotel side of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. Methodology April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 70 FIGURE 7-1 OVERVIEW OF COMPARABLE OPERATING STATEMENTS FOCUS-SERVICE HOTEL Comp A Comp B Comp C Comp D Comp E Subject Hotel Year 2016/17 2016/17 2016 2015/16 2015/16 * Number of Rooms: 80 to 110 110 to 140 130 to 160 210 to 270 220 to 280 120 Meeting Space 3,333 0 4,200 0 20,000 17,500 Occupied Rooms: 30,532 35,748 35,335 53,742 63,720 33,288 Occupancy: 85%80%67%61%69%76% Average Rate: $147 $135 $126 $110 $145 $171 RevPAR:$126 $107 $84 $67 $100 $130 *A stabilized year of operation. Dollar amounts shown in 2017 dollars. Sources: Respective Venues and HVS Further analysis of the comparable hotels provides benchmarks used in our forecast of income and expense. The three most common measures of industry performance: ratio to sales (“RTS”), amounts per available room (“PAR”), and amounts per occupied room night (“POR”) are used to present the financial data. The following figures compares our forecasts for the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center to the comparable properties on each of these metrics. April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 71 FIGURE 7-2 COMPARABLE OPERATING STATEMENTS--RATIO TO SALES FOCUS-SERVICE HOTEL RANK - PERCENTAGES 1 2 3 4 5 6 REVENUE Rooms 91.4 83.7 82.8 78.0 74.6 67.5 Food & Beverage 29.3 24.0 20.9 16.0 15.7 7.3 Other Operated Departments 3.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 Miscellaneous Income 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES Rooms 24.0 23.6 23.0 21.3 20.8 19.7 Food & Beverage 86.2 82.4 70.5 70.0 61.1 45.2 Other Operated Departments 87.1 76.9 76.1 70.0 36.8 0.0 OPERATING EXPENSES Administrative & General 11.1 9.3 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.3 Info. and Telecom. Systems 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 Marketing 11.9 11.8 9.2 6.7 6.5 6.0 Franchise Fee 7.8 7.1 6.3 4.7 4.6 2.7 Property Operations & Maintenance 6.0 4.1 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 Utilities 5.1 3.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 Total Operating Expenses 39.3 31.1 30.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 HOUSE PROFIT 45.8 43.7 41.7 39.5 38.1 30.4 indicates position of Proposed Hotel indicates position of comparable hotels Information and telecom systems have only recently been separated from general and administrative expenses. Comparable properties not showing an information and telecom system expense included those costs in general and administrative expenses. April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 72 FIGURE 7-3 AMOUNTS PER AVAILABLE ROOM FOCUS-SERVICE HOTEL RANK - INCOME PER ROOM 1 2 3 4 5 6 REVENUE Rooms 47,388 45,832 39,099 36,552 30,782 24,394 Food & Beverage 15,874 15,257 7,324 6,524 5,939 3,659 Other Operated Departments 1,746 624 408 367 272 0 Miscellaneous Income 642 277 25 1 0 0 DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES Rooms 11,023 10,899 8,623 8,141 6,071 5,190 Food & Beverage 10,680 7,175 6,038 4,186 3,984 3,154 Other Operated Departments 642 437 320 311 209 0 OPERATING EXPENSES Administrative & General 4,500 4,332 3,718 3,476 3,177 2,519 Info. and Telecom. Systems 376 278 250 241 165 158 Marketing 5,920 4,999 3,800 3,727 3,148 2,423 Franchise Fee 4,502 3,657 2,330 2,286 1,465 1,463 Property Operations & Maintenance 2,044 1,925 1,869 1,800 1,637 1,134 Utilities 2,012 1,600 1,588 1,295 1,227 957 Total Operating Expenses 16,452 15,031 14,516 14,106 12,289 9,603 HOUSE PROFIT 25,078 23,625 20,926 17,793 16,983 9,502 indicates position of Proposed Hotel FIGURE 7-4 AMOUNTS PER OCCUPIED ROOM NIGHT FOCUS-SERVICE HOTEL RANK - PER OCCUPIED ROOM 1 2 3 4 5 6 REVENUE Rooms 171 147 145 135 126 110 Food & Beverage 63 55 29 25 24 12 Other Operated Departments 7 2 2 2 1 0 Miscellaneous Income 2 1 0 0 0 0 DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES Rooms 39 35 34 28 25 23 Food & Beverage 39 28 21 18 17 10 Other Operated Departments 3 2 1 1 1 0 OPERATING EXPENSES Administrative & General 16 16 15 15 10 10 Info. and Telecom. Systems 1 1 1 1 1 1 Marketing 20 19 17 14 11 10 Franchise Fee 16 13 10 7 7 6 Property Operations & Maintenance 8 7 7 6 6 5 Utilities 8 7 6 4 4 4 Total Operating Expenses 59 56 56 50 48 39 HOUSE PROFIT 93 90 70 67 61 43 indicates position of Proposed Hotel April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 73 The following figure shows the room count, occupancy, average rate, and RevPAR of the comparable hotel properties and compares them with the extended-stay hotel side of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. FIGURE 7-5 OVERVIEW OF COMPARABLE OPERATING STATEMENTS EXTENDED-STAY HOTEL Comp A Comp B Comp C Comp D Comp E Subject Hotel Year 2016 2016/17 2016 2015/16 2015/16 * Number of Rooms: 60 to 80 80 to 110 80 to 100 70 to 100 80 to 110 80 Meeting Space 350 518 675 0 900 0 Occupied Rooms: 19,604 28,852 25,720 21,678 28,128 22,192 Occupancy: 75%86%79%72%79%76% Average Rate: $146 $120 $135 $138 $114 $146 RevPAR:$109 $103 $106 $99 $90 $111 *A stabilized year of operation. Dollar amounts shown in 2017 dollars. Sources: Respective Venues and HVS Further analysis of the comparable hotels provides benchmarks used in our forecast of income and expense. The three most common measures of industry performance: ratio to sales (“RTS”), amounts per available room (“PAR”), and amounts per occupied room night (“POR”) are used to present the financial data. The following figures compares our forecasts for the extended-stay hotel to the comparable properties on each of these metrics. April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 74 FIGURE 7-6 COMPARABLE OPERATING STATEMENTS--RATIO TO SALES EXTENDED-STAY HOTEL RANK - PERCENTAGES 1 2 3 4 5 6 REVENUE Rooms 99.0 98.8 98.6 98.6 98.6 97.8 Other Operated Departments 2.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 Miscellaneous Income 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES Rooms 24.8 23.0 22.9 21.8 21.0 18.9 Other Operated Departments 96.2 65.6 65.0 38.1 37.6 0.0 OPERATING EXPENSES Administrative & General 13.7 10.3 9.8 7.9 7.8 6.7 Info. and Telecom. Systems 3.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 Marketing 5.8 5.3 4.9 4.2 4.1 2.8 Franchise Fee 8.9 8.9 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.9 Property Operations & Maintenance 7.8 6.3 4.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 Utilities 4.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.0 Total Operating Expenses 42.7 36.5 31.0 30.1 27.4 26.9 HOUSE PROFIT 53.3 51.1 47.2 45.7 37.6 36.3 indicates position of Proposed Hotel indicates position of comparable hotels Information and telecom systems have only recently been separated from general and administrative expenses. Comparable properties not showing an information and telecom system expense included those costs in general and administrative expenses. April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 75 FIGURE 7-7 AMOUNTS PER AVAILABLE ROOM EXTENDED-STAY HOTEL RANK - INCOME PER ROOM 1 2 3 4 5 6 REVENUE Rooms 40,419 39,800 38,912 37,533 36,163 32,831 Other Operated Departments 842 568 416 402 323 263 Miscellaneous Income 174 139 138 0 0 0 DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES Rooms 9,889 9,296 8,910 7,587 7,143 7,107 Other Operated Departments 547 317 270 172 123 0 OPERATING EXPENSES Administrative & General 5,011 4,158 4,000 3,090 2,991 2,236 Info. and Telecom. Systems 1,402 656 553 535 250 190 Marketing 2,336 2,078 1,789 1,700 1,399 1,068 Franchise Fee 3,637 3,584 3,201 3,113 2,893 2,648 Property Operations & Maintenance 2,844 2,529 1,801 1,600 1,414 1,262 Utilities 1,721 1,500 1,478 1,322 1,199 1,179 Total Operating Expenses 15,659 14,741 12,687 11,814 10,531 8,935 HOUSE PROFIT 20,420 18,720 18,590 16,981 15,191 13,290 indicates position of Proposed Hotel indicates position of comparable hotels April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 76 FIGURE 7-8 AMOUNTS PER OCCUPIED ROOM NIGHT EXTENDED-STAY HOTEL RANK - PER OCCUPIED ROOM 1 2 3 4 5 6 REVENUE Rooms 146 146 138 135 120 114 Other Operated Departments 3 2 2 1 1 1 Miscellaneous Income 1 1 0 0 0 0 DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES Rooms 36 34 31 29 25 23 Other Operated Departments 2 1 1 1 0 0 OPERATING EXPENSES Administrative & General 19 15 14 11 10 8 Info. and Telecom. Systems 5 2 2 2 1 1 Marketing 9 7 7 6 5 3 Franchise Fee 13 13 11 11 10 9 Property Operations & Maintenance 11 9 6 6 5 4 Utilities 7 5 5 4 4 4 Total Operating Expenses 60 54 46 41 34 31 HOUSE PROFIT 67 65 64 59 56 51 indicates position of Proposed Hotel indicates position of comparable hotels HVS uses a fixed and variable component model to project a lodging facility's revenue and expense levels. The following figure illustrates the revenue and expense categories that can be projected using this fixed and variable component model. Fixed and Variable Component Analysis April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 77 FIGURE 7-9 RANGE OF FIXED AND VARIABLE RATIOS Category Index of Variability Revenues Food 25 - 50 %50 - 75 %Occupancy 25 % Beverage 0 - 30 70 - 100 Occupancy 25 Other 30 - 70 30 - 70 Occupancy 70 Rentals & Other Income 30 - 70 30 - 70 Occupancy 70 Departmental Expenses Rooms 50 - 70 30 - 50 Revenue 60 Food & Beverage 35 - 60 40 - 65 Revenue 60 Other 30 - 70 30 - 70 Beverage Revenue 70 Undistributed Operating Expenses Administrative & General 65 - 85 15 - 35 Other 75 Marketing 65 - 85 15 - 35 Other 75 Prop. Operations & Maint.55 - 75 25 - 45 Occupancy 75 Utilities 75 - 95 5 - 25 Occupancy 75 Percent Fixed Percent Variable Fixed Ratio The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would reach a stabilized level of operation in 2022. The forecast is based on calendar years beginning 2020, expressed in inflated dollars for each year. The individual performance of the focus-service hotel and the extended-stay hotel have been combined in the forecast of income and expenses presented next. The estimated number of occupied room nights and the average daily room rate determine room revenue in any given year. The Proposed Hotel and Convention Center would stabilize at an occupancy level of 76%, with an average daily rate of $181.90 in 2022. Following the stabilized year, the subject property’s average rate would increase with the rate of inflation. Food and beverage revenue is generated by a hotel's restaurants, lounges, coffee shops, snack bars, banquet rooms, and room service. In addition to providing a source of revenue, these outlets serve as an amenity that assists in the sale of guestrooms. In the case of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center, the food and beverage department will include restaurant and lounge; moreover, meeting space is expected to span 16,000 square feet. Although food and beverage revenue vary directly with changes in occupancy, the portion generated by banquet sales and outside capture is relatively fixed. We project food and beverage revenue to be $37.34 per occupied room for hotel food service by the stabilized year. Forecast of Income and Expense Rooms Food and Beverage Revenue April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 78 Other operated departments include any major or minor operated department other than rooms and food and beverage. Telephone revenue and expense is now considered a component of other operated departments. Based on our review of operations with a similar other department operations, we have determined an appropriate revenue level for the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center at 1.0% of gross revenues. The in-room movie, and game charges will generate the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center’s rentals and other income revenue. Based on our review of operations with a similar extent of offerings, we determined an appropriate revenue level for the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center at 0.4% of gross revenues. Rooms expense consists of items related to the sale and upkeep of guestrooms and public space. Salaries, wages, and employee benefits account for a substantial portion of this category. Although payroll varies somewhat with occupancy and managers can scale the level of service staff on hand to meet an expected occupancy level, much of a hotel's payroll is fixed. Hotel operations require a base level of front desk personnel, housekeepers, and supervisors at all times. As a result, salaries, wages, and employee benefits are only moderately sensitive to changes in occupancy. The rooms department is projected to average 23.0% of department revenues by the first stabilized year. Food and beverage departmental expenses consist of items necessary for the primary operation of a hotel's food and banquet facilities. Most of the cost of food and beverage sales and related payroll vary with the level of food revenues; however, this departmental operation has a fixed component. We have projected a stabilized expense ratio of 70.0% in the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center for hotel food & beverage. Other operated departments expense includes all expenses for the divisions associated in these categories. The other operated departments expense would average 68.5% of department revenues in the first stabilized year of 2022. In 2022, department level expenses average 31.3% of gross revenues, which would generate a department income of $8.48 million. Administrative and general expense includes the salaries and wages of all administrative personnel not directly associated with a particular department. Other costs include management and operation of the property. These expenses would average 7.9% of gross revenues in the first stabilized year of 2022. Other Operated Departments Revenue Rentals & Other Income Department Expenses Undistributed Operating Expenses April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 79 Information and telecommunications systems expense consists of all costs associated with a hotel’s technology infrastructure. This includes the costs of cell phones, administrative call and Internet services, and complimentary call and Internet services. Expenses in this category are typically organized by type of technology, or the area benefitting from the technology solution. These expenses would average 0.5% of gross revenues in the first stabilized year of 2022. Marketing expense consists of costs associated with advertising, sales, and promotion; these activities focus on attracting and retaining customers. Marketing creates an image, develops customer awareness, and stimulate patronage of a property's various facilities. Management controls the level of marketing expenditures. These expenses would average 5.4% of gross revenues by the first stabilized year of 2022. Property operations and maintenance expenditures maintain the functionality and appearance of the property. Management has certain discretion over this expense category due to the ability to delay certain maintenance. These expenses would average 3.2% of gross revenues in the first stabilized year of 2022 The consumption of various utilities by a lodging facility takes several forms, including water and space heating, air conditioning, lighting, cooking fuel, and other miscellaneous power requirements. The most common sources of hotel utilities are electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and steam. This category also includes the cost of water service. These expenses would average 2.9% of gross revenues in the first stabilized year of 2022. Undistributed operating expenses are expected to average 27.4% of gross revenues by the stabilized year of 2022, which generates a house profit of $5.10 million or 41.3% of gross revenues. Franchise and brand marketing fees for the focus-service hotel are 5.50% for the franchise fee and 4.00% for the marketing fee of gross room revenues. Franchise and brand marketing fees for the extended-stay hotel are 5.50% for the franchise fee and 3.50% for the marketing fee of gross room revenues. Franchise and brand marketing fees will depend on the selected brand and may vary from the previously discussed fees. The management fee is expected to average 3.0% of gross revenues. Property taxes are estimated at 2.5% of gross revenues. This estimate will need to be confirmed once a site is selected, a brand determined, and a construction budget has been established. Franchise and Management Fees Property Taxes April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 80 The insurance expense covers the hotel and its contents against damage or destruction by fire, weather, sprinkler leakage, boiler explosion, plate glass breakage, and so forth. General insurance costs also include premiums relating to liability, fidelity, and theft coverage. Insurance rates consider many factors, including building design and construction, fire detection and extinguishing equipment, fire district, distance from the firehouse, and the area's fire experience. Insurance and related expenses projected at 0.7% of gross revenues. The reserve for replacement for furniture, fixtures, and equipment are essential to the operation of a lodging facility, and their quality often influences a property's class. The furniture, fixtures, and equipment of a hotel experience heavy use and must be replaced at regular intervals. The reserve for replacement expenses projected at of gross revenues. The reserve for replacement expenses is ramped up due to new construction, with 2% of gross revenues in year one of operations, 3% in year two, and 4.0% thereafter The following figure presents a detailed forecast for the first five years of operation, including amounts per available room and per occupied room. The forecasts pertain to years beginning January 1, 2020, in inflated dollars for each year. Insurance Reserve for Replacement Summary of Projections April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 81 FIGURE 7-10 Focus-Service Hotel 5 Year Pro Forma (000’s) 2020 (Calendar Year)2021 Stabilized 2023 2024 Number of Rooms:120 120 120 120 120 Occupancy:72%75%76%76%76% Average Rate:$178.45 $186.68 $193.28 $198.11 $203.06 RevPAR:$128.48 $140.01 $146.89 $150.56 $154.33 Days Open:365 365 365 365 365 Occupied Rooms:31,536 %Gross PAR POR 32,850 %Gross PAR POR 33,288 %Gross PAR POR 33,288 %Gross PAR POR 33,288 %Gross PAR POR OPERATING REVENUE Rooms $5,627 73.7 %$46,892 $178.43 $6,132 74.3 %$51,100 $186.67 $6,434 74.6 %$53,617 $193.28 $6,595 74.6 %$54,958 $198.12 $6,760 74.6 %$56,333 $203.08 Food 1,549 20.3 12,912 49.13 1,637 19.8 13,643 49.84 1,695 19.6 14,123 50.91 1,737 19.6 14,476 52.19 1,781 19.6 14,838 53.49 Beverage 348 4.6 2,899 11.03 365 4.4 3,039 11.10 377 4.4 3,139 11.31 386 4.4 3,217 11.60 396 4.4 3,297 11.89 Other Operated Departments 79 1.0 662 2.52 82 1.0 686 2.51 85 1.0 706 2.55 87 1.0 724 2.61 89 1.0 742 2.67 Miscellaneous Income 35 0.5 294 1.12 37 0.4 305 1.11 38 0.4 314 1.13 39 0.4 322 1.16 40 0.4 330 1.19 Total Operating Revenues 7,639 100.0 63,658 242.23 8,253 100.0 68,773 251.23 8,628 100.0 71,899 259.19 8,844 100.0 73,697 265.67 9,065 100.0 75,541 272.32 DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES * Rooms 1,379 24.5 11,490 43.72 1,436 23.4 11,967 43.72 1,480 23.0 12,331 44.45 1,517 23.0 12,640 45.57 1,555 23.0 12,956 46.70 Food & Beverage 1,357 71.5 11,306 43.02 1,409 70.4 11,739 42.88 1,450 70.0 12,083 43.56 1,486 70.0 12,385 44.65 1,523 70.0 12,695 45.76 Other Operated Departments 56 70.8 468 1.78 58 70.2 482 1.76 59 70.0 494 1.78 61 70.0 507 1.83 62 70.0 519 1.87 Total Expenses 2,792 36.5 23,265 88.53 2,903 35.2 24,188 88.36 2,989 34.6 24,909 89.80 3,064 34.6 25,532 92.04 3,140 34.6 26,170 94.34 DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 4,847 63.5 40,394 153.71 5,350 64.8 44,586 162.87 5,639 65.4 46,989 169.39 5,780 65.4 48,165 173.63 5,924 65.4 49,371 177.98 UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES Administrative & General 571 7.5 4,761 18.12 593 7.2 4,943 18.06 611 7.1 5,091 18.35 626 7.1 5,219 18.81 642 7.1 5,349 19.28 Info & Telecom Systems 32 0.4 265 1.01 33 0.4 275 1.00 34 0.4 283 1.02 35 0.4 290 1.05 36 0.4 297 1.07 Marketing 482 6.3 4,021 15.30 501 6.1 4,174 15.25 516 6.0 4,299 15.50 529 6.0 4,407 15.89 542 6.0 4,517 16.28 Franchise Fee 535 7.0 4,455 16.95 583 7.1 4,855 17.73 611 7.1 5,094 18.36 627 7.1 5,221 18.82 642 7.1 5,352 19.29 Prop. Operations & Maint.229 3.0 1,905 7.25 237 2.9 1,977 7.22 244 2.8 2,037 7.34 250 2.8 2,087 7.53 257 2.8 2,140 7.71 Utilities 203 2.7 1,693 6.44 211 2.6 1,757 6.42 217 2.5 1,810 6.53 223 2.5 1,856 6.69 228 2.5 1,902 6.86 Total Expenses 2,052 26.9 17,099 65.07 2,158 26.3 17,981 65.68 2,234 25.9 18,614 67.10 2,290 25.9 19,080 68.78 2,347 25.9 19,557 70.50 GROSS HOUSE PROFIT 2,795 36.6 23,295 88.64 3,193 38.5 26,605 97.19 3,405 39.5 28,375 102.29 3,490 39.5 29,086 104.85 3,578 39.5 29,814 107.48 Management Fee 229 3.0 1,910 7.27 248 3.0 2,063 7.54 259 3.0 2,157 7.78 265 3.0 2,211 7.97 272 3.0 2,266 8.17 INCOME BEFORE NON-OPR. INC. & EXP.2,566 33.6 21,385 81.37 2,945 35.5 24,542 89.65 3,146 36.5 26,219 94.52 3,225 36.5 26,875 96.88 3,306 36.5 27,548 99.31 NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSE Property Taxes 191 2.5 1,591 6.06 206 2.5 1,719 6.28 216 2.5 1,797 6.48 221 2.5 1,842 6.64 227 2.5 1,888 6.81 Insurance 39 0.5 323 1.23 40 0.5 331 1.21 41 0.5 339 1.22 42 0.5 348 1.25 43 0.5 357 1.29 Reserve for Replacement 153 2.0 1,273 4.84 248 3.0 2,063 7.54 345 4.0 2,876 10.37 354 4.0 2,948 10.63 363 4.0 3,022 10.89 Total Expenses 383 5.0 3,188 12.13 494 6.0 4,114 15.03 602 7.0 5,013 18.07 617 7.0 5,138 18.52 632 7.0 5,267 18.99 EBITDA LESS RESERVE $2,184 28.6 %$18,197 $69.24 $2,451 29.5 %$20,428 $74.62 $2,545 29.5 %$21,206 $76.44 $2,608 29.5 %$21,737 $78.36 $2,674 29.5 %$22,281 $80.32 *Departmental expenses are expressed as a percentage of departmental revenues. April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 82 FIGURE 7-11 Extended-Stay Hotel 5 Year Pro Forma (000’s) 2020 (Calendar Year)2021 Stabilized 2023 2024 Number of Rooms:80 80 80 80 80 Occupancy:72%75%76%76%76% Average Rate:$152.20 $159.23 $164.85 $168.98 $173.20 RevPAR:$109.59 $119.42 $125.29 $128.42 $131.63 Days Open:365 365 365 365 365 Occupied Rooms:21,024 %Gross PAR POR 21,900 %Gross PAR POR 22,192 %Gross PAR POR 22,192 %Gross PAR POR 22,192 %Gross PAR POR OPERATING REVENUE Rooms $3,200 98.6 %$40,000 $152.21 $3,487 98.6 %$43,588 $159.22 $3,658 98.6 %$45,725 $164.83 $3,750 98.6 %$46,875 $168.98 $3,844 98.6 %$48,050 $173.22 Other Operated Departments 35 1.1 441 1.68 37 1.0 457 1.67 38 1.0 471 1.70 39 1.0 483 1.74 40 1.0 495 1.78 Miscellaneous Income 12 0.4 147 0.56 12 0.3 152 0.56 13 0.3 157 0.57 13 0.3 161 0.58 13 0.3 165 0.59 Total Operating Revenues 3,247 100.0 40,588 154.44 3,536 100.0 44,197 161.45 3,708 100.0 46,353 167.10 3,801 100.0 47,518 171.30 3,897 100.0 48,709 175.59 DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES * Rooms 784 24.5 9,800 37.29 817 23.4 10,207 37.29 841 23.0 10,518 37.92 862 23.0 10,781 38.86 884 23.0 11,051 39.84 Other Operated Departments 23 65.7 290 1.10 24 65.2 298 1.09 24 65.0 306 1.10 25 65.0 314 1.13 26 65.0 321 1.16 Total Expenses 807 24.9 10,090 38.40 840 23.8 10,506 38.38 866 23.4 10,824 39.02 888 23.3 11,095 40.00 910 23.3 11,372 41.00 DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 2,440 75.1 30,498 116.05 2,695 76.2 33,692 123.08 2,842 76.6 35,529 128.08 2,914 76.7 36,424 131.30 2,987 76.7 37,337 134.60 UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES Administrative & General 293 9.0 3,656 13.91 351 9.9 4,390 16.04 362 9.8 4,525 16.31 371 9.8 4,639 16.72 380 9.8 4,755 17.14 Info & Telecom Systems 18 0.6 229 0.87 22 0.6 274 1.00 23 0.6 283 1.02 23 0.6 290 1.05 24 0.6 297 1.07 Marketing 124 3.8 1,554 5.91 149 4.2 1,866 6.82 154 4.1 1,923 6.93 158 4.1 1,971 7.11 162 4.1 2,021 7.28 Franchise Fee 288 8.9 3,600 13.70 314 8.9 3,923 14.33 329 8.9 4,115 14.84 338 8.9 4,219 15.21 346 8.9 4,325 15.59 Prop. Operations & Maint.117 3.6 1,463 5.57 140 4.0 1,756 6.41 145 3.9 1,810 6.53 148 3.9 1,856 6.69 152 3.9 1,902 6.86 Utilities 110 3.4 1,371 5.22 132 3.7 1,646 6.01 136 3.7 1,697 6.12 139 3.7 1,740 6.27 143 3.7 1,783 6.43 Total Expenses 950 29.3 11,873 45.18 1,108 31.3 13,855 50.61 1,148 31.0 14,354 51.75 1,177 31.0 14,714 53.04 1,207 31.0 15,082 54.37 GROSS HOUSE PROFIT 1,490 45.8 18,625 70.87 1,587 44.9 19,836 72.46 1,694 45.6 21,174 76.33 1,737 45.7 21,710 78.26 1,780 45.7 22,255 80.23 Management Fee 97 3.0 1,218 4.63 106 3.0 1,326 4.84 111 3.0 1,391 5.01 114 3.0 1,426 5.14 117 3.0 1,461 5.27 INCOME BEFORE NON-OPR. INC. & EXP.1,393 42.8 17,407 66.24 1,481 41.9 18,510 67.62 1,583 42.6 19,784 71.32 1,623 42.7 20,284 73.12 1,664 42.7 20,794 74.96 NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSE Property Taxes 81 2.5 1,015 3.86 88 2.5 1,105 4.04 93 2.5 1,159 4.18 95 2.5 1,188 4.28 97 2.5 1,218 4.39 Insurance 39 1.2 485 1.84 40 1.1 497 1.81 41 1.1 509 1.84 42 1.1 522 1.88 43 1.1 535 1.93 Reserve for Replacement 65 2.0 812 3.09 106 3.0 1,326 4.84 148 4.0 1,854 6.68 152 4.0 1,901 6.85 156 4.0 1,948 7.02 Total Expenses 185 5.7 2,311 8.79 234 6.6 2,928 10.69 282 7.6 3,522 12.70 289 7.6 3,611 13.02 296 7.6 3,701 13.34 EBITDA LESS RESERVE $1,208 37.1 %$15,096 $57.44 $1,247 35.3 %$15,583 $56.92 $1,301 35.0 %$16,262 $58.62 $1,334 35.1 %$16,674 $60.11 $1,367 35.1 %$17,093 $61.62 *Departmental expenses are expressed as a percentage of departmental revenues. April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 83 FIGURE 7-12 Combined Focus-Service/Extended-Stay Dual-Branded Hotel 5 Year Pro Forma (000’s) 2020 (Calendar Year)2021 Stabilized 2023 2024 Number of Rooms:200 200 200 200 200 Occupancy:72%75%76%76%76% Average Rate:$167.94 $175.69 $181.90 $186.46 $191.13 RevPAR:$120.92 $131.77 $138.25 $141.71 $145.26 Days Open:365 365 365 365 365 Occupied Rooms:52,560 %Gross PAR POR 54,750 %Gross PAR POR 55,480 %Gross PAR POR 55,480 %Gross PAR POR 55,480 %Gross PAR POR OPERATING REVENUE Rooms $8,827 81.1 %$44,135 $167.94 $9,619 81.6 %$48,095 $175.69 $10,092 81.8 %$50,460 $181.90 $10,345 81.8 %$51,725 $186.46 $10,604 81.8 %$53,020 $191.13 Food 1,549 14.2 7,747 29.48 1,637 13.9 8,186 29.90 1,695 13.7 8,474 30.55 1,737 13.7 8,686 31.31 1,781 13.7 8,903 32.09 Beverage 348 3.2 1,739 6.62 365 3.1 1,824 6.66 377 3.1 1,883 6.79 386 3.1 1,930 6.96 396 3.1 1,978 7.13 Other Operated Departments 115 1.1 573 2.18 119 1.0 595 2.17 122 1.0 612 2.21 125 1.0 627 2.26 129 1.0 643 2.32 Miscellaneous Income 47 0.4 235 0.90 49 0.4 244 0.89 50 0.4 251 0.91 51 0.4 257 0.93 53 0.4 264 0.95 Total Operating Revenues 10,886 100.0 54,430 207.12 11,789 100.0 58,943 215.32 12,336 100.0 61,680 222.35 12,645 100.0 63,226 227.92 12,962 100.0 64,808 233.63 DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES * Rooms 2,163 24.5 10,814 41.15 2,253 23.4 11,263 41.15 2,321 23.0 11,606 41.84 2,379 23.0 11,896 42.88 2,439 23.0 12,194 43.96 Food & Beverage 1,357 71.5 6,784 25.81 1,409 70.4 7,043 25.73 1,450 70.0 7,250 26.14 1,486 70.0 7,431 26.79 1,523 70.0 7,617 27.46 Other Operated Departments 79 69.2 397 1.51 82 68.7 408 1.49 84 68.5 419 1.51 86 68.5 429 1.55 88 68.5 440 1.59 Total Expenses 3,599 33.1 17,995 68.47 3,743 31.8 18,715 68.37 3,855 31.3 19,275 69.48 3,951 31.2 19,757 71.22 4,050 31.2 20,251 73.00 DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 7,287 66.9 36,435 138.64 8,046 68.2 40,228 146.95 8,481 68.7 42,405 152.87 8,694 68.8 43,469 156.70 8,911 68.8 44,557 160.62 UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES Administrative & General 864 7.9 4,319 16.44 944 8.0 4,722 17.25 973 7.9 4,865 17.54 997 7.9 4,987 17.98 1,022 7.9 5,111 18.43 Info & Telecom Systems 50 0.5 250 0.95 55 0.5 275 1.00 57 0.5 283 1.02 58 0.5 290 1.05 59 0.5 297 1.07 Marketing 607 5.6 3,034 11.55 650 5.5 3,251 11.87 670 5.4 3,349 12.07 687 5.4 3,433 12.37 704 5.4 3,519 12.68 Franchise Fee 823 7.6 4,113 15.65 896 7.6 4,482 16.37 940 7.6 4,702 16.95 964 7.6 4,820 17.38 988 7.6 4,941 17.81 Prop. Operations & Maint.346 3.2 1,728 6.57 378 3.2 1,889 6.90 389 3.2 1,946 7.02 399 3.2 1,995 7.19 409 3.2 2,045 7.37 Utilities 313 2.9 1,564 5.95 343 2.9 1,713 6.26 353 2.9 1,765 6.36 362 2.9 1,809 6.52 371 2.9 1,854 6.68 Total Expenses 3,002 27.7 15,009 57.11 3,266 27.7 16,331 59.66 3,382 27.5 16,910 60.96 3,467 27.5 17,333 62.48 3,553 27.5 17,767 64.05 GROSS HOUSE PROFIT 4,285 39.2 21,427 81.53 4,780 40.5 23,898 87.30 5,099 41.2 25,495 91.91 5,227 41.3 26,135 94.22 5,358 41.3 26,790 96.58 Management Fee 327 3.0 1,633 6.21 354 3.0 1,768 6.46 370 3.0 1,850 6.67 379 3.0 1,897 6.84 389 3.0 1,944 7.01 INCOME BEFORE NON-OPR. INC. & EXP.3,959 36.2 19,794 75.32 4,426 37.5 22,129 80.84 4,729 38.2 23,645 85.24 4,848 38.3 24,239 87.38 4,969 38.3 24,846 89.57 NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSE Property Taxes 272 2.5 1,361 5.18 295 2.5 1,474 5.38 308 2.5 1,542 5.56 316 2.5 1,581 5.70 324 2.5 1,620 5.84 Insurance 78 0.7 388 1.48 79 0.7 397 1.45 81 0.7 407 1.47 83 0.7 417 1.51 86 0.7 428 1.54 Reserve for Replacement 218 2.0 1,089 4.14 354 3.0 1,768 6.46 493 4.0 2,467 8.89 506 4.0 2,529 9.12 518 4.0 2,592 9.35 Total Expenses 567 5.2 2,837 10.80 728 6.2 3,639 13.29 883 7.2 4,417 15.92 905 7.2 4,527 16.32 928 7.2 4,640 16.73 EBITDA LESS RESERVE $3,391 31.0 %$16,957 $64.52 $3,698 31.3 %$18,490 $67.54 $3,846 31.0 %$19,228 $69.32 $3,942 31.1 %$19,711 $71.06 $4,041 31.1 %$20,206 $72.84 *Departmental expenses are expressed as a percentage of departmental revenues. Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting Chicago, Illinois April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 84 FIGURE 7-13 PROPOSED HOTEL AND CONVENTION CENTER FIRST STABILIZED YEAR (2022) Number of Rooms:200 Occupancy (Paid Rooms):76% Average Rate:$181.90 RevPAR:$138.25 Days Open:365 Occupied Rooms (Paid):55,480 (000's)PAR POR Operating Revenue Rooms $10,092 81.8 $50,460 $181.90 Food 1,695 13.7 8,474 30.55 Beverage 377 3.1 1,883 6.79 Other Operated Departments 122 1.0 612 2.21 Miscellaneous Income 50 0.4 251 0.91 Total Operating Revenues $12,336 100.0 $61,680 $222.35 Department Expenses Rooms $2,321 23.0 $11,606 $41.84 Food & Beverage 1,450 70.0 7,250 26.14 Other Operated Departments 84 68.5 419 1.51 Total Expenses $3,855 31.3 $19,275 $69.48 Departmental Income $8,481 68.7 $42,405 $152.87 Undistributed Operating Expense Administrative & General $973 7.9 $4,865 $17.54 Marketing 670 5.4 3,349 12.07 Franchise Fee 940 7.6 4,702 16.95 Prop. Operations & Maint.389 3.2 1,946 7.02 Utilities 353 2.9 1,765 6.36 Info & Telecom Systems 57 0.5 283 1.02 Total Expense $3,382 27.5 $16,910 $60.96 Gross House Profit $5,099 41.2 $25,495 $91.91 Management Fee $370 3.0 $1,850 $6.67 Income Before Non-Opr. Inc. & Exp.$4,729 38.2 $23,645 $85.24 Non-Operating Income & Expense Property Taxes $308 2.5 1,542 5.56 Insurance 81 0.7 $407 $1.47 Reserve for Replacement 493 4.0 2,467 8.89 Total Expense $883 7.2 $4,417 $15.92 EBITDA Less Reserve $3,846 31.0 $19,228 $69.32 *Departmental expenses are expressed as a percentage of departmental revenues. % of Gross Our analysis projects a profitable hotel operation. The stabilized operating revenue comprises primarily of rooms and food and beverage revenue, with a relatively small portion derived from other income sources. On the cost side, departmental expenses total 31.3% of revenue in a stabilized year, while undistributed operating expenses total 27.5% of total revenues; this assumes that Pro Forma Conclusion Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting Chicago, Illinois April 13, 2018 Projection of Income and Expense Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 85 the property would be operated competently by a well-known hotel operator. After a 3.0% of total revenues management fee, and 7.2% of total revenues in fixed expenses, a EBITDA less reserve ratio of 31.0% ($3.85 million) is forecast by 2022, the first stabilized year. Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting Chicago, Illinois April 13, 2018 Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 86 8. Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions 1. This report is to be used in whole and not in part. 2. All information, financial operating statements, estimates, and opinions obtained from parties not employed by HVS are assumed to be true and correct. We can assume no liability resulting from misinformation. 3. Unless noted, we assume that there are no encroachments, zoning violations, or building violations encumbering the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center. 4. The proposed facility is assumed to be in full compliance with all applicable federal, state, local, and private codes, laws, consents, licenses, and regulations (including a liquor license where appropriate). We assume that all licenses, permits, certificates, franchises, and so forth can be freely renewed or transferred to a purchaser. 5. We are not required to give testimony or attendance in court by reason of this analysis without previous arrangements, and only when our standard per- diem fees and travel costs are paid prior to the appearance. 6. If the reader is making a fiduciary or individual investment decision and has any questions concerning the material presented in this report, it is recommended that the reader contact us. 7. We take no responsibility for any events or circumstances that take place subsequent to the date of our report. 8. No responsibility is assumed for matters of a legal nature, nor do we render any opinion as to title, which is assumed to be marketable and free of any deed restrictions and easements. 9. We assume that there are no hidden or unapparent conditions of the sub-soil or structures, such as underground storage tanks, that would render the proposed property more or less valuable. No responsibility is assumed for these conditions or for any engineering that may be required to discover them. 10. We have not considered the presence of potentially hazardous materials such as asbestos, urea formaldehyde foam insulation, any form of toxic waste, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), pesticides, mold, or lead-based paints. The appraisers are not qualified to detect hazardous substances, and we urge the client to retain an expert in this field if desired. Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting Chicago, Illinois April 13, 2018 Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 87 11. The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) became effective on January 26, 1992. We have assumed that the proposed property will be designed in accordance with the various detailed requirements of the ADA. 12. We have made no survey of the subject site, and we assume no responsibility in connection with such matters. 13. The estimated operating results presented in this report are based on an evaluation of the overall economy and neither take into account nor make provision for the effect of any sharp rise or decline in local or national economic conditions. To the extent that wages and other operating expenses may advance during the economic life of the property, we expect that the prices of food, beverages, and services will be adjusted to at least offset those advances. We do not warrant that the estimates will be attained, but they have been prepared on the basis of information obtained during the course of this study. 14. The quality of a facility's on-site management has a direct effect on a property's economic performance. The demand and financial forecasts presented in this analysis assume responsible ownership and competent management. Any departure from this assumption may have a significant impact on the projected operating results. 15. We do not warrant our estimates. We use information obtained during our market research and are intended to reflect reasonable expectations. 16. Many of the figures presented in this report were generated using sophisticated computer models that make calculations based on numbers carried out to three or more decimal places. In the interest of simplicity, most numbers have been rounded. Thus, these figures may be subject to small rounding errors. 17. It is agreed that our liability to the client is limited to the amount of the fee paid as liquidated damages. Our responsibility is limited to the client and use of this report by third parties shall be solely at the risk of the client or third parties. The use of this report is also subject to the terms and conditions outlined in our engagement letter with the client. 18. Although this analysis employs various mathematical calculations, the final estimates are subjective and may be influenced by our experience and other factors not specifically outlined in this report. 19. HVS Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting prepared this report. All opinions, recommendations, and conclusions expressed during this assignment are rendered by the staff of this organization, as employees, rather than as individuals. Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting Chicago, Illinois April 13, 2018 Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 88 20. This report is set forth as a market study of the Proposed Hotel and Convention Center; this is not an appraisal report. Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting Chicago, Illinois April 13, 2018 Certification Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 89 9. Certification The undersigned certify that, to the best of our knowledge and belief: 1. the statements of fact presented in this report are true and correct; 2. the reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the reported assumptions and limiting conditions, and are our personal, impartial, and unbiased professional analyses, opinions, and conclusions; 3. we have no (or the specified) present or prospective interest in the property that is the subject of this report and no (or the specified) personal interest with respect to the parties involved; 4. we have no bias with respect to the property that is the subject of this report or to the parties involved with this assignment; 5. our engagement in this assignment was not contingent upon developing or reporting predetermined results; 6. our compensation for completing this assignment is not contingent upon the development or reporting of a predetermined value or direction in value that favors the cause of the client, the amount of the value opinion, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of a subsequent event directly related to the intended use of this analysis; and 7. Tom Hazinski and Brian Harris participated in the analysis. Tom Hazinski Managing Director, Convention-Sports-Entertainment Brian Harris Director, Convention-Sports-Entertainment Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting Chicago, Illinois April 13, 2018 Penetration Explaination Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 90 i. Penetration Explanation Let us illustrate the penetration adjustment with an example. A market has three existing hotels with the following operating statistics: BASE-YEAR OCCUPANCY AND PENETRATION LEVELS Based upon each hotel’s room count, market segmentation, and annual occupancy, the annual number of room nights accommodated in the market from each market segment can be quantified, as set forth below. MARKET-WIDE ROOM NIGHT DEMAND The following discussion will be based upon an analysis of the commercial market segment. The same methodology is applied for each market segment to derive an estimate of a hotel’s overall occupancy. The table below sets forth the commercial demand accommodated by each hotel. Each hotel’s commercial penetration factor is computed by: 1) calculating the hotel’s market share % of commercial demand (commercial room nights accommodated by subject hotel divided by total commercial room nights accommodated by all hotels) and 2) dividing the hotel’s commercial market share % by the hotel’s fair share %. Property Number of Rooms Fair Share Commercial Meeting and Group Leisure Occupancy Hotel A 100 23.5 %60 %20 %20 %75.0 %100.8 % Hotel B 125 29.4 70 10 20 65.0 87.4 Hotel C 200 47.1 30 60 10 80.0 107.5 Totals/Average 425 100.0 %47 %38 %15 %74.4 %100.0 % Penetration Market Segment Annual Room Night Demand Commercial 54,704 47.4 % Meeting and Group 43,481 37.7 Leisure 17,246 14.9 Total 115,431 100.0 % Percentage of Total Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting Chicago, Illinois April 13, 2018 Penetration Explaination Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 91 The following table sets forth each hotel’s fair share, commercial market share, and commercial penetration factor. COMMERCIAL SEGMENT PENETRATION FACTORS If a new 100-room hotel enters the market, the fair share of each hotel changes because of the new denominator, which has increased by the 100 rooms that have been added to the market. COMMERCIAL SEGMENT FAIR SHARE The new hotel’s penetration factor is projected for its first year of operation. It is estimated that the hotel would capture (penetrate) only 85% of its fair share as it establishes itself in the market. The new hotel’s market share and room night capture can be calculated based upon the hotel’s estimated penetration factor. When the market share of the existing hotels and that of the new hotel are added up, they no longer equal 100% because of the new hotel’s entry into the market. The market share of each hotel must be adjusted to reflect the change in the denominator that comprises the sum of each hotel’s market share. This adjustment can be mathematically calculated by dividing each hotel’s market share percentages by the new denominator of 97.1%. The resulting calculations reflect each hotel’s new adjusted market share. The sum of the adjusted market shares equals 100%, indicating that the adjustment has been successfully completed. Once the market shares have been calculated, the penetration factors can be recalculated (adjusted market share divided by fair share) to derive the adjusted penetration factors based upon the new hotel’s entry into the market. Note that each existing hotel’s penetration factor actually increases because the new hotel is capturing (penetrating) less than its fair share of demand. Property Number of Rooms Fair Share Commercial Capture Hotel A 100 23.5 %16,425 30.0 %127.6 % Hotel B 125 29.4 20,759 37.9 129.0 Hotel C 200 47.1 17,520 32.0 68.1 Totals/Average 425 100.0 %54,704 100.0 %100.0 % Commercial Penetration Commercial Market Share Property Number of Rooms Hotel A 100 19.0 % Hotel B 125 23.8 Hotel C 200 38.1 New Hotel 100 19.0 Total 525 100.0 % Fair Share Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting Chicago, Illinois April 13, 2018 Penetration Explaination Proposed Hotel and Convention Center – Bozeman, Montana 92 COMMERCIAL SEGMENT PROJECTIONS (YEAR 1) In its second year of operation, the new hotel is projected to penetrate above its fair share of demand. A penetration rate of 130% has been chosen, as the new hotel is expected to perform at a level commensurate with Hotel A and Hotel B in this market segment. The same calculations are performed to adjust market share and penetration factors. Note that now the penetration factors of the existing hotels decline below their original penetration rates because of the new hotel’s above-market penetration. Also, note that after the market share adjustment, the new hotel retains a penetration rate commensurate with Hotel A and Hotel B, though the penetration rates of all three hotels have declined by approximately nine percentage points because of the reapportionment of demand. Once the market shares of each hotel have been adjusted to reflect the entry of the new hotel into the market, the commercial room nights captured by each hotel may be projected by multiplying the hotel’s market share percentage by the total commercial room-night demand. This calculation is shown below. COMMERCIAL SEGMENT PROJECTIONS (YEAR 2) Property Number of Rooms Fair Share Hist./Proj. Penetration Factor Hist./Proj. Market Share Adjusted Market Share Adjusted Penetration Factor Projected Capture Hotel A 100 19.0 %127.6 %24.3 %25.0 %131.4 %13,688 Hotel B 125 23.8 129.0 30.7 31.6 132.8 17,299 Hotel C 200 38.1 68.1 25.9 26.7 70.1 14,600 New Hotel 100 19.0 85.0 16.2 16.7 87.5 9,117 Totals/Average 525 100.0 %97.1 %100.0 %54,704 Property Number of Rooms Fair Share Hist./Proj. Penetration Factor Hist./Proj. Market Share Adjusted Market Share Adjusted Penetration Factor Projected Capture Hotel A 100 19.0 %131.4 %25.0 %23.1 %121.5 %12,662 Hotel B 125 23.8 132.8 31.6 29.3 122.9 16,004 Hotel C 200 38.1 70.1 26.7 24.7 64.8 13,507 New Hotel 100 19.0 130.0 24.8 22.9 120.3 12,531 Totals/Average 525 100.0 %108.1 %100.0 %54,704