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HomeMy WebLinkAboutEconomic Impacts of the PT Land Development Bozeman MT 05262016 Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development Bozeman Montana For: Conducted By: May 2016 Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development, Bozeman Montana 2 Contents Page Economic Impact Highlights 3 Approach & Methodology 4 Key Terms & Assumptions 4 Impact Summary Findings 5 Construction Impacts 7 Operations Impacts 9 Firm Description 11 Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development, Bozeman Montana 3 PT Land Development Economic Impact Highlights Summary • The economic activity generated by the PT Land Development will support from 290 to 1,477 jobs in the Bozeman economy each year. • In dollar terms, the PT Land Development will add from $13.4 million to $50.2 million in income to the local economy each year. • Total economic output generated by the PT Land Development, will range from $38.5 million to $127.4 million each year. • Tax revenues will total from $4 million to $15.7 million annually. Construction • Construction activity will support from 139 to 290 jobs each year, generate between $6.4 and $13.4 million in income, raise economic output $18.5 to $38.4 million and generate annual tax revenues of $1.9 to $4 million. Operations • Early operations will support 544 jobs annually in the Bozeman economy, generate $17.6 million in income dollars each year and raise total annual economic output by $47.3 million. Total tax revenues will increase by $6.3 million annually; $2.4 million state & local and $3.9 million Federal. • On-going operations will annually support 1,337 jobs in the Bozeman economy, generate $43.8 million in income dollars each year and raise total annual economic output by $108.9 million. On-going operations will generate tax revenues of $13.7 million annually; $4.4 million state & local and $9.3 million Federal. Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development, Bozeman Montana 4 Approach & Methodology This analysis focuses on the likely economic impacts to occur in the Bozeman MT economy as a result of the construction and operation of the PT Land Development. The analysis examines the two developmental phases and post construction on-going operations. The study conservatively examines the impacts that are realistic under the current economic environment in Bozeman MT economy. The economic modeling and subsequent industry and household linkages are established from the structure of the area’s existing economy. To measure economic impacts as they flow through the local economy, the IMPLAN® system was employed. IMPLAN® is an input-output model that is comprised of software and regional data sets. The overriding objective of the model is to measure the full economic impact to a location as a result of a specific economic activity. The model is built upon a matrix detailing the input-output relationships among industries and consumers and tracks new spending though the local economy. The primary matrix structure is derived from the National Bureau of Economic Analysis’s National Benchmark Input-Output Model. Impacts (defined below) help describe how the additional activity generated by the PT Land Development will move its way through the Bozeman economy. Key Terms & Assumptions Term Definition Direct impact The impact caused by the initial change or new purchases. Indirect impact The cycle of local business-to-business spending as it works its way backward through the local supply chain due to the direct impact, plus forward spending by local households of the income earned from the initial activity. Total impact Sum of direct and indirect impacts. Employment The annual average of monthly jobs in that industry. Income All forms of employment income, including wages, benefits and proprietor Income. Output The gross value of industry production (total sales or gross margins). Hotel Activity 200 rooms, ADR of $150 at 75 percent occupancy. Estimated visitor spending derived from Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research, University of Montana - Missoula 1 Retail & Office Activity Activity proportioned across retail categories (restaurants, clothing & clothing accessories, sporting goods and health/personal care) and office categories (legal, accounting, marketing, office administration, business support, architectural, consulting and financial activities). Estimated sales based on Triple Net Lease comprising 12 percent of total sales. Local Economy Gallatin County, Montana2 1 Grau, Kara, "2015 Nonresident Visitation, Expenditures & Economic Impact Estimates." (2016). Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research. http://scholarworks.umt.edu/itrr_pubs/333 2 Modeling utilized most current, 2014, economic structure of Gallatin County MT, IMPLAN Group, LLC, Huntersville, NC Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development, Bozeman Montana 5 PT Land Development Impact Summary Findings The planned PT Land Development in Bozeman Montana will impact the local economy over two development phases and via continued on-going operations when built-out. Phase 1 (Years 1 and 2) includes initial design, infrastructure and construction activity in both years; with hotel operations and 63,500 gross square feet (GSF) of retail and office activity in Year 2. Phase 2 (years 3, 4 and 5) includes continuing construction activity, on-going hotel, retail and office activity from Year 2, plus 223,000 GSF of additional retail and office activity (presented fully in Year 5). On-going operations include total hotel, retail and office economic activities. Annually, economic activity generated by the PT Land Development will support from 290 to 1,477 jobs in the Bozeman economy (Figure 1 and Table 1). Post-construction on-going operations will support 1,337 jobs each year. In dollar terms, the PT Land Development will add from $13.5 million to $50.2 million in income to the local economy each year. Post-construction on-going operations will add $43.8 million in labor income annually. Total economic output, or the gross value of industry production generated by the PT Land Development, will range from $38.4 million to $127.4 million each year. Post- construction on-going operations will generate $108.9 million in additional economic output annually. Tax revenues will rise from $4 million to $15.7 million annually through the development phases; with on-going operations contributing $13.7 million each year. Figure 1 PT Land Development Annual Jobs Supported (Construction & Operations) 190 588 490 490 1,063 971 100 256 203 203 414 367 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Year-One Year-Two Year-Three Year-Four Year-Five On-GoingOperations Indirect Jobs Direct Jobs Phase 1 Phase 2 Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development, Bozeman Montana 6 Table 1 PT Land Development Economic Impact Summary (Construction & Operations) Phase 1 Phase 2 On-Going Operations Year-One Year-Two Year-Three Year-Four Year-Five Jobs Supported Direct 190 588 490 490 1,063 971 Indirect 100 256 203 203 414 367 Total Jobs 290 844 693 693 1,477 1,337 Income Generated Direct $9,214,759 $21,002,018 $16,223,158 $16,223,158 $34,293,383 $29,857,484 Indirect $4,238,842 $10,108,976 $7,880,655 $7,880,655 $15,959,652 $13,949,131 Total Income $13,453,601 $31,110,994 $24,103,814 $24,103,814 $50,253,036 $43,806,615 Economic Output Direct $25,537,501 $53,993,269 $40,839,101 $40,839,101 $76,580,944 $64,197,611 Indirect $12,921,499 $31,858,528 $25,091,571 $25,091,571 $50,885,382 $44,730,840 Total Output $38,459,000 $85,851,797 $65,930,672 $65,930,672 $127,466,326 $108,928,451 Tax Revenues State & Local $1,187,789 $3,582,780 $2,968,938 $2,968,938 $5,000,518 $4,426,571 Federal $2,884,120 $6,805,675 $5,306,140 $5,306,140 $10,731,820 $9,347,236 Total Tax Revenues $4,071,909 $10,388,455 $8,275,078 $8,275,078 $15,732,338 $13,773,807 Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development, Bozeman Montana 7 PT Land Development Construction Impacts Phase 1 (Years 1 and 2) construction activity includes initial design, infrastructure work, hotel construction and development of 42,500 GSF of Retail space and 21,000 GSF of Office Space. Phase 1 construction activity will annually support 290 jobs in the Bozeman economy; 190 directly and another 100 indirectly (Figure 2 and Table 2). The construction activity will generate $13.4 million in income dollars each year and raise total annual economic output by $38.4 million. Total tax revenues will increase by $4 million annually; $1.2 million state & local and $2.8 million Federal. Phase 2 (Years 3, 4 and 5) construction activity includes an additional 149,000 GSF of retail space and 74,000 GSF of Office Space. Phase 2 construction activity will annually support 139 jobs in the Bozeman economy; 92 directly and another 47 indirectly. The construction activity will generate $6.4 million in income dollars each year and raise total annual economic output by $18.5 million. Total tax revenues will increase by $1.9 million annually; nearly $600 thousand state & local and $1.3 million Federal. Figure 2 PT Land Development Construction- Annual Jobs Supported 190 190 92 92 92 100 100 47 47 47 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Year-One Year-Two Year-Three Year-Four Year-Five Indirect Jobs Direct Jobs Phase 1 Phase 2 Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development, Bozeman Montana 8 Table 2 PT Land Development Construction Economic Impacts Phase 1 Phase 2 Year-One Year-Two Year-Three Year-Four Year-Five Jobs Supported Direct 190 190 92 92 92 Indirect 100 100 47 47 47 Total Jobs 290 290 139 139 139 Income Generated Direct $9,214,759 $9,214,759 $4,435,899 $4,435,899 $4,435,899 Indirect $4,238,842 $4,238,842 $2,010,521 $2,010,521 $2,010,521 Total Income $13,453,601 $13,453,601 $6,446,421 $6,446,421 $6,446,421 Economic Output Direct $25,537,501 $25,537,501 $12,383,333 $12,383,333 $12,383,333 Indirect $12,921,499 $12,921,499 $6,154,542 $6,154,542 $6,154,542 Total Output $38,459,000 $38,459,000 $18,537,875 $18,537,875 $18,537,875 Tax Revenues Generated State & Local $1,187,789 $1,187,789 $573,947 $573,947 $573,947 Federal $2,884,120 $2,884,120 $1,384,585 $1,384,585 $1,384,585 Total Tax Revenues $4,071,909 $4,071,909 $1,958,532 $1,958,532 $1,958,532 Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development, Bozeman Montana 9 PT Land Development Operations Impacts Phase 1 (Years 1 and 2) operations includes the economic activity generated from a 200 room hotel and businesses occupying 42,500 GSF of Retail space and 21,000 GSF of Office Space. No operations are expected in Year 1. Year 2 operations will annually support 544 jobs in the Bozeman economy; 398 directly and another 156 indirectly (Figure 3 and Table 3). Operations will generate $17.6 million in income dollars each year and raise total annual economic output by $47.3 million. Total tax revenues will increase by $6.3 million annually; $2.4 million state & local and $3.9 million Federal. Phase 2 (Years 3, 4 and 5) impacts conservatively estimate continuing operations from Year 2 into Years 3 and 4. Occupancy of the additional 149,000 GSF of retail space and 74,000 GSF of Office Space is estimated to occur by Year 5. Although earlier occupancies may occur in Years 3 or 4, for reporting simplicity full occupancy is condensed into Year 5; which then reflects PL Development’s complete on- going economic impacts in the Bozeman economy. Year 5 (on-going) operations will annually support 1,337 jobs in the Bozeman economy; 971 directly and another 367 indirectly. Operations will generate $43.8 million in income dollars each year and raise total annual economic output by $108.9 million. Total tax revenues will increase by $13.7 million annually; $4.4 million state & local and $9.3 million Federal. Figure 3 PT Land Development Operations- Annual Jobs Supported 398 398 398 971156156156 367 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Year-Two Year-Three Year-Four Year-Five On-Going Indirect Jobs Direct Jobs Phase 1 Phase 2 Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development, Bozeman Montana 10 Table 3 PT Land Development Operations Economic Impacts Phase 1 Phase 2 Year-Two Year-Three Year-Four On-Going Year-Five Jobs Supported Direct 398 398 398 971 Indirect 156 156 156 367 Total Jobs 554 554 554 1,337 Income Generated Direct $11,787,259 $11,787,259 $11,787,259 $29,857,484 Indirect $5,870,134 $5,870,134 $5,870,134 $13,949,131 Total Income $17,657,393 $17,657,393 $17,657,393 $43,806,615 Economic Output Direct $28,455,768 $28,455,768 $28,455,768 $64,197,611 Indirect $18,937,029 $18,937,029 $18,937,029 $44,730,840 Total Output $47,392,797 $47,392,797 $47,392,797 $108,928,451 Tax Revenues Generated State & Local $2,394,991 $2,394,991 $2,394,991 $4,426,571 Federal $3,921,555 $3,921,555 $3,921,555 $9,347,236 Total Tax Revenues $6,316,546 $6,316,546 $6,316,546 $13,773,807 Economic Impacts of the PT Land Development, Bozeman Montana 11 SYNEVA Economics, LLC has prepared this report for the sole use of the Client. 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