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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSummit Housing 1 of 2 TO: Community Affordable Housing Advisory Board FROM: Wendy Thomas, Community Development Director SUBJECT: Summit Housing, Inc., request for financial support from the Community Housing Fund for the payment of$18,010 in impact fees for the construction of 42 affordable rental units serving seniors at or below 60% AMI units on property located on the southwest corner of 27th Avenue and Turbulence Lane. MEETING DATE: October 14, 2015 RECOMMENDED MOTION: I move to recommend the City Commission authorize the use of$18, 010 in Community Housing Funds for the payment of impact fees for the Summit Housing Inc., Low Income Housing Tax Credit(LIHTC) development of 42 rental housing units for senior households earning 60% or less of Area Median Income (AMI). BACKGROUND: Summit Housing, Inc., has submitted a request for the City's financial support of the group's construction of an affordable apartment building, with 42 units affordable to senior households earning 60% or less of area median household income. On September 28, 2015 the City Commission approved a letter of support for the LIHTC application. The Community Housing Fund has $50,000 for the payment of impact fees for the development of affordable rental housing for FY 2016. The City Commission will be acting upon a request by REACH, Inc., for the allocation of approximately $32,000 for the development of six affordable units on October 5, 2015. The Community Affordable Housing Advisory Board (CAHAB) reviewed this item at their September, 2015 meeting and voted unanimously to recommend to the City Commission to allocate the funds for the REACH project. Summit Housing is requesting the remainder of the funding be allocated to their proposed development. The developer requested partial funding for the impact fees for the proposed development. The proposed project will move the community further toward the five year goal of creating 200 multi-family affordable rentals. 1.4. Build rental Goal: Over five years,build and rent 200 multifamily units using the federal housing with Low-Income Tax Credit(LIHTC)and other federal subsidies to make rents below-market affordable to households with incomes from 30%to 60%of AMI.The City will rate rents encourage and support projects that meet the City's criteria for quality and affordability.Encourage the inclusion of supportive housing units where feasible. Implementers: For-profit and potentially nonprofit developers. Considerations: The City should assist nonprofit and for-profit developers in seeking federal HOME and CDBG subsidies,as well as assistance from the City's Workforce Housing Fund,to make some units affordable at 30%and 40%AMI. The City will use the evaluation criteria in Appendix B to determine whether to endorse applications for LIHTC,HOME and CDBG,to provide assistance from Workforce Housing Fund and sponsor HOME and CDBG applications to the State of Montana. Based on the Action Plan,the community goal between 2012 and 2016 is to create 200 multi- family units using LIHTC to make rents affordable to households earning between 30 and 60% AMI. This project will address housing needs for senior households earning 60% or less of AMI. We now have the following rental housing projects seeking approval or under construction: Project Name Units Status Stonerid e Apartments 48 Under construction Larkspur Commons A is 136 Seeking site plan approval REACH A is 6 Site plan approved Rose Park Apts 42 Seeking tax credit approval The Affordable Housing Action Plan 2012-2016 recommends that the Green Building standards outlined in Appendix C be required of applicants requesting funds. If this funding request is approved, during the review process for the site plan a condition of approval will require the green building requirements of the Action Plan will be met. The Action Plan states that an evaluation criteria be used to determine if an application should be supported. In 2014, the City Commission approved the application and scoring sheet recommended for use by CAHAB. You will find the scoring sheet as an attachment to this report. Attachments: Scoring Sheet Summit Housing Application Letter of Support from City of Bozeman r 283 W Front Street, Suite 1 ''%,� Missoula,MT 59802 Summit Phone(406) 5410999 I:%ousiu Fax(406) 541-0997 Groian, Int. September 10th,2015 Bozeman City Commission 121 N. Rouse Bozeman MT 59771-1230 RE: Rose Park Apartments-Letter of Support,Reduction of Impact Fees for Affordable Housing Dear Bozeman City Commission: Summit Housing Group is intending on submitting an application for tax credits for a 42 unit senior development in the West Winds Subdivision to the MBOH in early October. We are requesting that the City Commission provide a letter of support for this much needed project,as well as a reduction in impact fees provided by the city's affordable housing fund. All units will be rented to senior households at or below 60%AMI. If you have any questions please contact me at:(406)541-0999 x 233 Sincere1 , Rusty Snow Full criteria for City support of Affordable Housing Activities can be found in Appendix B of ths;ituaei�aa�t^a Affordable Housing Action Plan for 2012-2016:http://www.bozeman.net/Smarty/files/51/513668ad-f9e9-4ff7- a 5a b-21953d 79856f.odf Financial Support: Financial support is based upon funding availability and meeting eligibility criteria in Appendix B. Projects anticipating a need for financial support should contact the City as early as possible to ascertain the availability of funding. Ranking Process: Requests will be evaluated to determine if they meet the threshold requirements outlined in Appendix B;those meeting threshold requirements will be scored by city staff according to the following criteria: • Review of market study—20 points G To what extent do the market study and other available data demonstrate a need for the proposed project? • Review of financial data-20 points 12 Sources, uses and budget forecasts will be evaluated for reasonableness and long-term project susta inability. • Capacity of development team—20 points 1E) Do the team and key staff have experience with this type of project? How has the applicant performed in the past? Has the developer made previous requests to the City or State Department of Commerce to restructure commitments made on similar projects? _ • Project Affordability —20points lProposed rents/sales prices will be evaluated for the populations to be served to determine the extent to which the proposed project meets the City's most critical affordable housing needs. • Inclusion of units for lower income households(earning less than 30%AMI for rental housing, earning less than 60%for ownership housing)—up to 20 points The City has an interest in promoting the development of units for households earning less than 30%of the area median income in rental developments and less than 60%AMI in ownership developments, as these levels represent the households that are most difficult to serve.The City will reward 5 points per unit(for up to 4 units)directed to households earning less than the outlined AMI levels for rental and ownership projects. City of Bozeman Affordable Housing Support Application Project Name: _F_ ��1 Developer(s): '�JlVtltl'1 City of Bozeman Application for City Support of Affordable Housing Activities Applicability: These criteria apply to proposals for use of City funds for affordable housing activities and requests for formal City endorsement of projects for the purposes of obtaining federal, state and private grants and tax incentives. All project and program proposals will be reviewed by City staff or their delegates and recommendations made by the Community Affordable Housing Advisory Committee. Final decisions will be made by the City Commission.The City may support applications through a letter of support to a funder,grant sponsorship(for HOME and CDBG sources),and/or direct funding support. Evaluation Criteria: To provide funding or a letter of support for a project,the City must receive and evaluate the following data. 1. Market data. This will consist of credible and detailed market data,waiting list data or other information indicating demand for the proposed housing or services. 2. Project financial data. This will consist of a detail project development budget showing all proposed sources and uses of capital financing. If the project will provide rental or supportive housing, an operating budget forecasting revenues and expenses over at least 10 years must be provided. For projects in which supportive services are crucial,the operating budget must include forecasts of proposed revenue and forecast expenses for these services. 3. Capacity of project or program team.The project's proposer must identify all key firms and individuals involved in the project or program and provide resumes and corporate qualifications indicating their capacity to carry out the program. Exceptions to this requirement may be made by City staff for proposers who have successfully operated similar programs or developed similar projects previously in Bozeman. For a new program, resumes must be provided for the organization's chief executive and the program manager. For development projects, resumes or corporate qualifications statements must be provided for the developer,the individual proposed as project manager,architect,and building contractor. Eligible Activities and Funding Criteria: Funding from the Workforce Housing Fund or other City sources may be provided,at the City's sole discretion and with the recommendation of the CAHAB for those activities outlined in Appendix B. Periodically,the City and CAHAB may solicit concept proposals from housing programs and housing developers.They may also accept unsolicited proposals from nonprofit and for-profit organizations. Deadline for requests: Applications are accepted on an annual,rolling basis.Applicants are advised to communicate with City staff as early as possible in the development of their project.Developers of LIHTC properties must submit their request for support from the City along with the required information 45 days before applications are due to the Montana Board of Housing. Criteria for Support: City of Bozeman Low Income Housing Tax Credit Request for Support Project Name: Rose Park Apartments, LP Developer(s): Summit Housing Group, Inc., HRDC Non-profit partner(if applicable): HRDC Project Address: TBD Tschache Lane—at the corner of Thomas Drive and Tschache Lane Number of Buildings: 1 residential Number of Units: 42-Senior Amount of Credits being requested: $658,750 Affordability Period:45 years Proposed Unit Mix: # baths #at 30% #at 40% #at 50% #at 60% AMI or less AMI or less AMI or less AMI or less Studio 113R 1 bath 3 13 8 21313 2 bath 2 13 3 TOTAL at rent level TOTAL#of Units 5 26 11 Proposed Rents: 30%AMI 40%AMI 50%AMI 60%AMI or less or less or less or less Studio 1BR 429 557 626 21313 515 669 738 Narrative responses Provide a brief description of the proposed project. Include information regarding project location, number of units, type of units, development/unit amenities and any other information you would like the city to consider. Rose Park Apartments Proiect Information Rose Park Apartments is located at the eastern half of Lot 5 Block 8,West Winds Major Subdivision, Phases 2A and 213, Plat J-445 which is at the corner of Thomas Drive and Tschache Lane. The site, which is already owned by Summit Housing Group, Inc. is currently vacant but does have all utilities and infrastructure in place. With the infrastructure and flat topography of the site, construction of proposed development will be cost effective. Additionally, the site is already zoned R-3 for multifamily and under the PUD and conditional use permit for the West Winds Major subdivision the site has been specifically set aside for the development of affordable housing. All units will target Bozeman families and will consist of thirty (24)one bedroom units at 750SF and eighteen(18)two bedroom units at 950SF. The community will also contain a 1200SF community room which will include an office, computer room. The site is located less than half a mile from 19`h Avenue which has multiple desirable services and off site amenities for the resident in our community. These include: • Smith Food and Drugs • Lowe's and Home Depot • Access to several convenience stores • Access to numerous retail stores • Access to numerous banking centers • Rose Park • Sage Learning Center • US Post Office Indoor Amenities Amenities are those elements in a home that are not essential but are provided to increase the efficiency, comfort, or aesthetic appearance of the apartment s. Specific amenities include: • High efficiency windows • High quality flooring in living spaces and hallways • Carpeting in all bedrooms • ENERGY STAR Washer in each unit • Dryer in each unit • ENERGY STAR lighting • ENERGY STAR appliances • Low-Flow shower heads and toilet fixtures • Energy efficient HVAC systems • Handicap accessible units Additional Amenities As you walk through the site you will find indoor and outdoor amenities that will provide entertainment in a safe, secure, natural environment. Please see additional amenities below: Outdoor Areas • Picnic areas with Pavilions with gazebos • Playground • Community Garden Community Amenities • Computer room with high speed internet • Community room In our conceptual plan we believe the project presents a rich communal environment that celebrate the moments of arrival,the transitions from collective activity to privacy, and the discovery of common interest and chance encounters. The encouragement of social interaction and sense of place are achieved through architecture, site layout and interior and exterior amenities. Financing Summit Housing Group, Inc.'s finance team will be directly involved with the financing for the project from inception. The finance team will be responsible for all financial analysis and coordination with the lender and equity investors, and the development team to determine the most effective financing plan for this project. Our finance team will update and sensitize project finance models so that as market conditions change, decisions can be made to adjust our plan accordingly. To this end, the financing team will negotiate all business points, terms and guarantees for the financing approach and will also provide the required due diligence to bring the project to closing. Once the project is closed and construction commences, the financing team will remain involved throughout the construction period. The finance team will work with the development team to monitor construction progress and construction draws and will interface with lenders and equity providers to ensure that funding occurs as needed keeping the project moving forward. Financial Assumptions • Approximately $5,003,158 in hard construction costs with$250,158 in Contingency • Total annual operating expenses=$134,981 of which$12,600 or$300/unit is replacement reserve • The property will cover all resident water, sewer and waste disposal expenses • We will have a manager at our Stoneridge Apartments (currently under construction). Operations would also include a maintenance employee. • Financing assumes $6,069,984 in Tax Credit Equity, a$5,425,000 construction loan, a $1,116,674 permanent loan, a reduction of city impact fees of$193,079 and no Deferred Developer Fee. • Federal Tax Credit Price of$0.92 per credit • Rent and expense growth rates are underwritten and 2% and 3 %respectively • 7%vacancy rate Describe how the proposed project meets or exceeds the Green Building standards outlined in Appendix C of the City of Bozeman Affordable Housing Action Plan. Sustainable Design Sustainable design practices are utilized on all of Summit Housing Groups,Inc.'s new communities. Whether our design calls for certain building materials, building components, building systems or even the building locations,we strive to utilize new technologies and building practices to ensure our communities have little impact on the environment. These sustainable building practices also create long term financial benefits for residents and the community as a whole. Our design will incorporate the following sustainable design and construction standards: All appliances and equipment will reduce energy consumption by installing only EnergyStar products. All lighting fixture will also be EnergyStar product and will have either compact florescent or other high- efficiency bulbs. Water heaters will carry an efficiency rating of.93 or better will be well-insulated to reduce heat loss. Water conservation devices will be installed through the community and will meet the following standards: • Showerheads—3.0 gpm(gallons per minute) or less • Kitchen and bathroom faucets—2.75 gpm or less • Toilets— 1.6 gallon per flush or less Additionally the insulation of all hot water supply and heating pipes will carry an R-3 value or higher. Seal all exposed hot air duct joints and add insulating wraps with an R-3 value or higher. Our design will assure good indoor air quality by designing our community using the following Green Building Standards: • Provide local mechanical exhaust ventilation to the outdoors in each bathroom and kitchen. • In addition, all bathroom ventilation fans shall be ENERGY STAR qualified unless multiple bathrooms are exhausted with a multi-port fan. • Conventional clothes dryers shall be vented to the outdoors. Electric condensing dryers are • not vented and shall be plumbed to a drain according to the manufacturer's instructions. Value Engineering Strategy Our Construction Management Team will endeavor to create value engineering options to further increase project cost savings that can be utilized toward project enhancements and site amenities without compromising the quality of the development. This effort will require a design/build approach during the early stages of the construction plans and specifications with the architect, engineers and general contractor. Construction Phase Beyond the design phase and permitting, we will hold construction meetings that will include the Owner, Architect and Contractor (OAC). OAC meetings are held monthly. OAC meetings are an open forum for all field observations, requests for information, change order review, value engineering, material selections, trouble-shooting and interaction with all respective disciplines to achieve maximum efficiency during construction. Summit Housing Group,Inc. and the general contractor will utilize the OAC meeting as a tool to further enhance the construction process and maintain scheduled milestones. During the Construction Phase we will also coordinate the following meetings with our Development Team: • Manage monthly OAC meetings • Coordinate bank inspector reviews during construction • Conduct construction testing(i.e. concrete, soil, asphalt) • Coordinate with local building inspectors • Sustainable design meetings Asset Management The finance team will act as asset manager during lease-up until stabilization is achieved. We will organize the necessary documents to obtain cost certification and 8609 completion and convert the construction loan to permanent financing. Additionally during this time period, the financing team will interface with property management to prepare an appropriate management plan for the project including pre-leasing and lease-up goals along with the marketing and lease-up budgets to support the overall plan. Summit Housing Group, Inc. has formed a team of firms that are experts in their fields. Each of our partners has strong experience and relationships on a variety of projects resulting in a partnership that understands how its members work, what they require and how to ensure deadlines are met. This team is committed to the success of this project. Explain how the proposed project is in support of the City of Bozeman's Affordable Housing plan and serves a target income group identified by the plan. The City of Bozeman's affordable housing plan looks to increase and preserve the supply of affordable housing by building 200 affordable family rental units between 2012 and 2016. This community would add 42 senior units to Bozeman a on a site that is already designated for affordable housing. Over the last 10 years the following transactions Low Income Housing Tax Credit developments have been awarded by the Montana Board of Housing: 1. 2004 Bridger Apartments 46 2. 2005 Baxter Apartments 48 3. 2012 Haggerty Lane Apartments 11 4. 2015 Stoneridge Apartments 48 The following are the guiding principles for the City of Bozeman's Affordable Housing Plan: All residents should have access to decent and affordable housing. Rose Park Apartments will provide senior residents with quality, safe, and decent housing at rates that are and will continue to be affordable. Successful delivery of affordable housing should not be measured only by sale prices and rents, but its performance in terms of minimizing energy use and maintenance costs. Summit Housing Group, Inc. uses sustainable design and high quality building products to ensure that residents and our communities as a whole minimize energy use and reduce ongoing maintenance cost. There is no single home price or rent benchmark that defines "affordable"housing." Rose Park Apartments will provide units to Bozeman families that have an income level of 40%, 50% and 60% of the Area Median Income. The Low Income Housing Tax Credit Program does have guidelines and maximum rent levels that are based on the resident's income level. When setting our rents we take into consideration not only the LIHTC Program maximum rent level, but also research the market place to ensure our rents can be obtained. Rose Park Apartments has a 23% market advantage over the current market rate rents. Affordability for residents of various incomes levels should be based on ability to pay, since affordability is a function of both housing costs and income. Similarly to the answer above our rent levels are not only set by LIHTC maximum rent levels but also consider what residents from specific income levels are able to pay for rent. Additionally, our sustainable design does help the financial burden considerably for our residents. The solutions to providing affordable housing should involve using diverse approaches and mechanisms. Summit Housing Group, Inc. continually looks to better the lives of our residents by looking at our past developments and studying areas that we could improve our design, and become more cost efficient, which in turn provides a better quality of housing and amenities for our residents. Sustainable design, efficient use of land and innovative building practices are the key to providing quality affordable housing. Availability of housing for residents of all income levels is essential for attracting and retaining the employers that provide the jobs that are essential to the community's prosperity. Summit Housing Group, Inc. could not agree more and are dedicated to providing quality housing at affordable rents to each community we develop an apartment complex. Rose Park Apartments will provide this quality housing. Economic viability is the lifeblood of any successful community and employment is one of the keys to growth and maintaining the community's economic viability. Economic growth can be measured in part by the number of additional jobs created within a community. In the initial construction phases, Summit Housing Group, Inc. will create countless jobs as subcontractors construct the apartment complex. After completion, ongoing employment will be created through the operational phase of the developments. The ongoing operations from the developments will create jobs such as property managers, assistant property managers,maintenance staff, extermination, cleaning services, and repair contractors. Provision of Community and Supportive Services Programs benefiting residents with families: Through our partnership with HRDC, our residents will receive a tailored social service plan to address specific social issues within our community. These services will empower residents,nurture family values,facilitate community partnerships, and foster a supportive environment that cultivates economic growth and stability. This service plan will advocate self-sufficiency by offering social, economic, and educational services to residents that will aid them in unlocking their potential for growth and prosperity. Some of the programs Summit Housing Group,Inc. has utilized in the past are: Adult Literacy; Computer Classes;English/Spanish instruction; GED preparation; Job Training/Preparation;Budgeting; Communication Skills; Conflict Resolution; Fire and Personal Safety Awareness; Substance Abuse; Tax Assistance; and Time and Stress Management. How will your firm ensure that the long-term management of the project will 1) provide adequate funding for project sustainability, and 2) be responsive to the needs of low-income residents? Summit Housing Group,Inc.'s internal underwriting standards are constantly adjusting to the market place based on tax credit pricing, interest rates, operational cost and construction cost. Since we own and manage all 832 of our units,we have the benefit of having detailed historical information on development cost and operational cost. This information allows us to accurately budget our development cost but also us to conservatively set our operational budget and permanent debt amount so that the community will have continued financial health. The Montana Board of Housing and our Equity partners in the transaction will require both replacement reserves and operating deficit reserves. Rose Park Apartments, LP will accrue $300 per unit or$12,600 for replacement reserves annually and will be used to replace any broken or damaged building components. This reserve is in addition to the $786 per unit or$33,000 we budget annually for general repairs and maintenance. The operating deficit reserve consists of four months of operating expense, debt service and replacement reserves and will equal approximately $90,000. This operating deficit reserve is put in place to cover any shortfalls or expense overruns that might occur due to unforeseen circumstances. If the operating deficit reserve is utilized during a calendar year it must be replenished at year end at the owner's expense. For each unit type: proposed rent,# of bedrooms,# of bathrooms, rent level(AMI targets) Income Level # of units Gross Max Rent Utility All. Mkt. Adj. Prop. Rent 1-BR @ 40% 3 515 86 429 2-BR @ 40% 2 618 103 515 TOTAL @ 40% 4 11.90% 1-BR @ 50% 13 643 86 557 2-BR @ 50% 13 800 103 669 TOTAL @ 50% 26 61.90% 1-BR @ 60% 8 772 86 (60) 626 2-BR @ 60% 3 927 103 (86) 738 TOTAL @ 60% 12 25.53% Total LIHTC units 42 Mgrs. Unit 0 BR MGR unit TOTAL UNITS 42 Unit Sq. Ft. 1 Bedroom with 1 Baths 750 SF 2 Bedroom with 2 Baths 950 SF List of development team, including relevant experience in developing/owning similar projects. Please attach resumes for key staff and firm principals. Developer: Summit Housing Group,Inc. 283 W. Front Street, Suite 1 Missoula,MT 59802 Ph: 406-541-0999 ext. 233 Fax: 406-541-0997 Contact: Rusty Snow rusty a,summithousinggroup.com www.summithousinggroup.com Architect: Encompass Architecture, PLLC 1535 Liberty Lane, Suite 11013 Missoula, MT 59808 Ph: 406-880-2841 Contact: Jenn Clary J ennRwencompassdesignin.c.com General Contractor: Oakwood Construction Co. 2380 Science Parkway Suite 101 Okemos,MI 48864 Ph: 517-347-1980 Fax: 517-347-0968 Contact: Bernie Aulgur oakwoodcompanies(a-)gmail.com http://www.oak.ce Civil Engineer: JKC Engineering 111 West 2nd Street, Suite 420 Casper,WY 82601 Ph: 307-265-4601 Fax: 307-265-4672 Contact: Lewis James lewis a,jkcengineering com htt-o://www.jkcengineering.com Property Management: Highland Property Management,Inc. 283 W. Front Street, Suite 1 Missoula,MT 59802 Ph: 406-541-0999 ext, 224 Fax: 406-541-0997 Contact: Casey Overland caseynhighland-propertymanagement.com http://www,highland-proi)ertymanagement.com/ I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Rose Park Apartments-Bozeman,Montana Client Summit Housing Group, Inc. 283 W. Front Street Suite 1 Missoula, Montana 59802 Summary of Subject Property The proposed Rose Park Apartments to be located in Bozeman, Montana will be a forty- two (42) unit LIHTC senior community. The subject property is located on the west of N. 27`h Avenue, between Turbulence Lane (on the north) & Tschache Lane (on the south), in the northwestern part of the City of Bozeman, Gallatin County, State of Montana. The City of Bozeman is located in the southwest part of Montana and is the State's 4t' most populous city. All major services are available in Bozeman including a regional shopping mall, big box retailers including Walmart, Costco and Target, banking, grocery stores, education (public and private), and a regional hospital. The City is also home to Montana State University. Rose Park senior apartments will include one (1)three story building with an elevator. Twenty-four(24) of the units will be one bedroom one bath @ 750 S.F., with the remaining eighteen (18) units being two bedroom two bath @ 980 S.F. Five (5) of the units will be designated for households at the 40 %AMI level, with twenty-six(26) units at 50%and eleven (11) units will be at 60 %AMI. The proposed project will include a community room with kitchen, computer room and an exercise room, as well as a BBQ area w/tables and covered parking. Unit amenities will include all kitchen appliances including a refrigerator, range, dishwasher, disposal and microwave, as well as washer/dryers in the units, air conditioning, carpets, blinds, a patio/balcony and additional storage. Purpose of Study The purpose of this study is to show continued need and demand for affordable senior rental units in the Bozeman, Montana area. This study will establish the position of the subject project, Rose Park Apartments within both the conventional multi-family rental market, as well as the existing affordable housing market. Conclusion It is our opinion in looking at all of the factors in this study, that the proposed Rose Park Apartments will fill a very strong need in the Bozeman area, that is for affordable rental units for very low to low income seniors. The subject will provide good quality affordable housing with rents running from 40 to 60 %below market. This will be accomplished while offering a strong unit and project based amenities. The subject parcel is well located in a mainly residential area of single family homes, attached single family and new good quality apartments. The proposed site is however just a few blocks west of 17`" Avenue, location of many area services including Costco, Target, Home Depot, Lowes and many other retail and commercial businesses including grocery stores and banks. In looking at other areas of the Bozeman rental market, it is clear that there is also a need for affordable family housing, with existing projects being fully occupied and including wait lists. There is however a new 48 unit family tax credit community that is under construction just east of the subject that will help the need for affordable family units. The vacancy rate at market rate projects is also very low at 0.2 %with two of the ten project surveyed including a wait list. Renters in the Bozeman area currently have very few options, and in most cases, simply have to take what's available (if anything), with no choice of floor or location in the complex. The one existing senior tax credit community is 100 %occupied and includes a wait list of names. While we have not included specific information, we also talked to the managers of two low income senior projects, Darlington Manor and Legion Villa, both of who were full with both including wait lists. All of the project managers at existing income restricted projects expressed their support for a new senior development and did not feel it would have any real effect on their project. Bob Ballard with the local HRDC office, also noted that the wait list for section 8 vouchers increased from 1,740 in August 2013 just under 2,000 at the present time. Since December 2010, rents in the area have increased from 16 to 21 % and in fact, average rents have increased by 7 to 11 % since July 2014. The highest increases came at the area's two bedroom two bath units, which increased by 11 %over the past 12 months These higher rental rates are making it increasingly difficult for very low to low income seniors (and families) to find good quality affordable rental units in the City. As the population of the Bozeman area increases over the next 2 - 3 years, we would expect rents to continue to climb as demand grows. This will make the subject's below-market rents even more attractive, especially given its strong location and amenity package. Taking into account all of the information in this study, we feel that this proposed project should prove very successful if built as planned. The subject is located in one of the fastest growing cities in the State, with the population of Bozeman continuing to increase at a good rate. Over the past four years (2010 - 2014), Bozeman's population increased by 7,795 or 8.7 %or 2.2 % annually. In fact, over the past year(2013 - 2014), the City's population increased by a very strong 4.6 %, more than double the average annual increase from 2010 to 2014. Those increases over the past four years, ranked Bozeman 2"'by total increase and also 2nd by percentage increase among all cities in the State with a population of 3,000 or more. The senior population is by far the fastest growing segment of that population, increasing by 4.4 %annually over the past five years (2010 -2015). Appropriate Development Type As indicated in this market study, several main points show that this development is appropriate for the market. First of all there is an indicated demand for 84 additional units, with 281 eligible senior households currently in the market area. With the current vacancy rate for existing competitive senior units at 0 %, it is clear the area needs a new project. With just one competitive project in the City (which is full), we don't anticipate the subject will have a negative effect on existing projects in the area. Secondly, after discussions with managers of existing senior projects in the City as well as HRDC,the biggest need in Bozeman for senior is for 1 & 2 bedroom units,which is contained in the subject. Thirdly, given the very high rental increases in the area over the past several years, the proposed project's rent range, will be very attractive (and affordable)to potential renters. Absorption When looking at the potential lease up of a project it is always helpful to look at the recent lease up of a similar project in the area. The last senior tax credit project to open was the 61 unit Bridger Peaks Apartments which opened in 206. However, in looking at all of the factors in this report and taking into account its strong location and below-market rents, we feel the subject will lease at a rate of about 20 -24 units per month with stable occupancy achieved in three months. IL PROJECT DESCRIPTION a. Description of Market Area We have determined that the primary market area will be the entire City of Bozeman. Over the years that we have been completing market studies for affordable housing, we have learned that potential residents are typically willing to relocate to different areas of a given city in order to find quality affordable housing. That is especially true for seniors. For conventional housing or market rate apartments, potential residents are more likely to stay in certain areas, near work or certain schools, etc. The subject parcel is located in the northwestern part of the City of Bozeman. This area of the City includes a mix of newer residential uses as well as a high number of retail businesses including Costco, Target, Lowes and Home Depot. Additionally, there are grocery stores, banks, hotels and smaller retail businesses in this part of the City. Most of these businesses are located along 19"'Avenue,just a few blocks east of the subject's location on 27"'Avenue. Bozeman is the State's 41' most populous City with all services available. The market area also has a good mix of both single family and multi-family units including apartment rentals and condominiums. According to the 2010 Census there were 17,464 total housing units in the City of Bozeman, an increase of 5,820 from the 2000 Census total of 11,644. In addition, when looking at the building permits issued since the April 2010 Census through May 2015, approximately 2,223 housing units have been added for an estimated total of 19,687. Over the past three years, (2012 - 2014),the City has permitted a very high 2,062 residential units (single and multi-family), an annual average of 687 units, with another 189 though May 2015. The average age of housing in Bozeman is very new with 55.7 %being built after 1990 and 74.6 % since 1970. b. Site Amenities Property Address: TBD - Tschache Lane Property Identification: West Winds Major Subdivision NW 1/4 of Section 02 Township 02S Range 05E Geo-Code - 06079802242010000 (portion of) Land Area: 1.89 acres Zoning Classification: The subject parcel is currently zoned R-3 /PUD Lot Description The proposed lot is level and is cleared of all trees. Surrounding uses: The subject parcel is located in a mainly residential area of new attached and detached single family homes and apartments. A new family tax credit project is under construction directly east of the proposed site with Vacant R-4 zoned land (multi-family) farther east across 271" Avenue. New duplex and attached single family homes are to the north, west and south, with newly built market rate apartment community farther to the south along N. 27'h Avenue. Access &Visibility: The site will be accessed off of N. 27"Avenue at either Tschache Lane or Turbulence Lanes. There will be no problems with access and visibility to the site Inspection Date: The site was personally visited by Property Dynamics on September 11, 2015 SITE PICTURES SITE LOOKING SOUTH ALONG EAST BORDER SITE LOOKING WEST ALONG TURBULENCE LANE 1 ' A SITE LOOKING SOUTH ALONG WEST BORDER SITE LOOKING NORTH ALONG WEST BORDER Rpm Jill SITE LOOKING EAST ALONG TSCHACHE LANE NEIGHBORHOOD PICTURES SINGLE FAMILY HOMES TO NORTH ACROSS TURBULENCE DUPLEXES TO WEST SINGLE FAMILY HOMES TO SOUTH NEIGHBORHOOD SERVICES Distances to Site: 1. 0.1 Bus Stop -Proposed(N. 271"Avenue & Tschache Ln)* 2. 0.1 Rose Park 3. 0.3 Post Office 4. 0.4 Town Pump/Conoco Convenience Store 5. 0.6 Mountain West Bank 6. 0.6 Smiths Grocery/pharmacy, Heritage Bank, Gap & 16 additional stores 7. 0.7 Fire Station 8. 1.2 Target, Ross, Etc. 9. 1.3 Family Doctors Urgent Care 10. 1.4 Costco 11. 2.3 Senior Center 12. 3.4 Library 13. 4.6 Hospital * A city bus stop(Streamline) is at N. 271"Avenue& Tschache Ln. It is currently available along 19", 0.3 miles from the proposed location Distances calculated along dedicated roads - actual driving miles Distances calculated by Property Dynamics c. Description of Improvements The proposed Rose Park Senior Apartments will include forty-two (42), one and two bedroom tax credit units, with the following mix: i. Unit Mix,Unit Amenities, Common Amenities Proposed Unit Mix: Sq. Ft. 24 - One bedroom one bath units @ 750 S.F. 18 - Two bedroom two bath units @ 950 S.F. 42 Unit Amenities: Refrigerator Range (oven/stove) Dishwasher Disposal Microwave Washer/dryer Air conditioning Ceiling fans Blinds Carpets Patio/balcony Extra storage Common Area Amenities: Community room with: Kitchen Computer room Exercise room Elevator Controlled entry BBQ area w/tables Covered parking Parking Space: 45 Utilities: Heat Source: Gas Tenant Paid: Electric/gas/phone/cable Owner Paid Utilities: Water/sewer/trash Expect Date of Market Entry April 2017 Proposed Rents/Income Levels Utility Mkt. Gross Rent Allowance Adjust. Net Rent 3 - One bdrm units @ 40/49 %of Median $ 515.00 $ 86.00 $ 0.00 $429.00 14 - One bdrm units @ 50/55 %of Median $ 643.00 $ 86.00 $ 0.00 $ 557.00 7 - One bdrm units @ 60 %of Median $ 772.00 $ 86.00 $ 60.00 $ 626.00 2 - Two bdrm units @ 40/49 %of Median $ 618.00 $ 103.00 $ 0.00 $ 515.00 12 - Two bdrm units @ 50155 %of Median $ 772.00 $ 103.00 $ 0.00 $ 669.00 4 - Two bdrm units @ 60%of Median $ 927.00 $ 103.00 $ 86.00 $ 738.00 42 - Total units Units by Income Rangy 40 %Units - 5 50 %Units -26 60 %Units- 11 Projected Income: 3 - One bedroom units @$ 429.00= $ 1,287.00 x 12 months= $ 15,444.00 14- One bedroom units @$ 557.00= $ 7,798.00 x 12 months= $ 93,576.00 7 - One bedroom units @ $ 626.00= $ 4,382.00 x 12 months= $ 52,584.00 2 - Two bedroom units @ $ 515.00= $ 1,030.00 x 12 months= $ 12,360.00 12 - Two bedroom units @ $ 669.00= $ 8,028.00 x 12 months= $ 96,336.00 4 - Two bedroom units @ $ 738.00 = $ 2,952.00 x 12 months= $ 35,424.00 42 - Total $25,477.00 x 12 months= $ 305,724.00 Less 7 %Vacancy & Collection Loss $ (21,401.00) Annual Forecasted Revenue $ 284,323.00 ii. Comparison to Market Rate Projects The subject Rose Park senior apartments will be very similar to existing market rate projects in the City in terms of condition and finishes. The ten market rate projects surveyed were a mix of older communities to newly built(within the past few years), and all would be considered as in good condition. We should note that at one of the market rate projects surveyed, Castlebar,the majority of units (65) are tax credit, with just 7 units at market. The ten projects surveyed included 1,008 units for an average of 101 units. The projects however ranged in size from 24 to 161 units and compared to 136 at the subject. Project Amenities The subject Rose Park Apartments will include a community room w/kitchen, computer and exercise area, as well as a BBQ area w/tables and covered parking. On average, existing market rate projects in Bozeman would be considered as about equal to the subject in terms of project based amenities, with the exception of the three newest projects in the area. Of the ten market rate projects surveyed, five included laundry facilities, a community room and fitness center,with four including BBQ/picnic areas, extra storage and a children's play area, with three including a business center, garages and a pool or spa. As noted, three of the projects in our survey would be superior to the subject when comparing project amenities. Those three projects are Mountain View, Trout Meadows and the newly built Sundance at Baxter. Those include a business center, fitness center and community room, with Trout Meadows and Sundance including a pool and spa. Rents at those three projects are among the highest in the area and well above the proposed rents at Rose Park. Unit Amenities The subject will include all basic kitchen appliances including refrigerator, range, dishwasher, disposal and microwave as well as a washer/dryer in the unit, floor coverings, blinds, air conditioning, a patio/balcony and additional storage.At the market rate projects surveyed, all ten included carpets, blinds, all basic kitchen appliances with nine of the ten including a dishwasher and/or disposal. Six included a microwave and patio or balcony(three w/outside storage),with four including washer/dryers in the units and ceiling fan. Two included washer/dryer hookups, AC and walk-in closets. We would rate unit features at the subject as slightly superior on average to these ten projects. Unit Size Comparison Range Avera e Subject One bedroom one bath 530 - 854 S.F. 674 S.F. 750 S.F. Two bedroom one bath 725 - 950 S.F. 851 S.F. NA Two bedroom two bath 900 - 1,100 S.F. 1,010 S.F. 950 S.F. The one bedroom unit size at the subject is about 11 % larger on average than the ten market rate projects surveyed for this study. The two bedroom two bath units are slightly smaller(by 6%), but well within the range of existing projects. iii. Comparison to Other Rent Restricted Projects In the market area there is just one existing senior tax credit community, the 61 unit Bridger Peaks Apartments. Additionally,there are six family projects with 344 units. All of the existing projects including family and senior are in good condition and would be comparable to the subject in terms of overall condition. Project Amenities The subject Rose Park Apartments will include a community room w/kitchen, computer and exercise area, as well as a BBQ area w/tables and covered parking. The one competitive senior project, Bridger Peaks includes controlled entry, a community room w/kitchen, as well as a common patio. We would rate the subject, as superior to Bridger Peaks when comparing project amenities. At five of the six existing family projects, all included a community room, laundry facilities, a BBQ/picnic area and a children's play area, with one including a business center, basketball court and bike racks. The sixth project, the 11 unit Haggerty Lane, includes a play area,BBQ/picnic area and bike racks. On average the subject would be about equal to these six existing family projects. Unit Amenities The subject will include all basic kitchen appliances including dishwasher, disposal and microwave as well as washer/dryers in the units, floor coverings, blinds, air conditioning, a patio/balcony and additional storage. Bridger Peaks includes all basic kitchen appliances including a dishwasher and disposal, as well as AC and carpets/blinds. At the six family projects, all included all appliances including a dishwasher and/or disposal, carpets and blinds. Two included a patio/balcony, air conditioning with one including washer/dryer hookups. None of the existing projects include washer/dryers or microwaves, as does the subject. Unit Size Comparison Range Average Subject One bdrm one bath 440 - 750 S.F. 573 S.F. 750 S.F. Two bdrm two bath 800 S.F. 800 S.F. 980 S.F. The subject's one bedroom one bath units are much larger on average than existing competitive units in the market area(by 31 %). The two bedroom units are about 22 % larger, although we should note that there is just one project that has two bedroom with two bath units and that unit is actually 1'/2 bath. All of these units sizes are from the area's six family projects. The manager at the one senior project, Bridger Peaks did not know the size of units. III. MARKET AREA ECONOMY a. Delineation of Market Area We have determined that the primary market area will be entire City of Bozeman. Over the years that we have been completing market studies for affordable housing, we have learned that potential residents are typically willing to relocate to different areas of a given city in order to find quality affordable housing. For conventional housing or market rate apartments, potential residents are more likely to stay in certain areas, near work or certain schools, etc. This market area was determined in part after discussions with managers of existing income restricted family projects in the City, as well as with HRDC in Bozeman. b. Population and Household Trends Gallatin County With a 2014 Census estimated population of 97,308, Gallatin County is the State's 3`d most populous County, following only Yellowstone (City of Billings) and Missoula County (City of Missoula). Growth in Gallatin County has been very strong and steady over the past 24 years (1990 - 2014), with its population increasing by 46,845 or 92.8 %, a very good 3.9%annual rate of growth. The majority of that growth occurred between 2000 and 2010, when its population increased by 21,682 or 32.0 %, or 3.2 %annually, and compared to growth of 17,368 or 34.3 % or 3.4 %per year on average between 1990 and 2000. More recently between 2010 and 2014, the County population increased by 7,795 or 8.7 %, from 89,513 in 2010 to 97,308 in 2014, a good 2.2 %per year on average. Over the past four years (2010 - 2014), Gallatin was the State's 2"d fastest growing County by overall increase, following only Yellowstone County. The County also ranked tied for 4"'by percentage increase over the past four years. City of Bozeman -Market Area According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the 2014 estimated population for the City of Bozeman was 41,660, making it the State's 4th most populous city and largest of Gallatin County's five incorporated cities. The City of Bozeman has also enjoyed very strong population growth over at least the past 24 years (1990 - 2014), with its population increasing by 19,000 or 83.4 %or a very good 3.5 %per year on average. The majority of that growth, like Gallatin County, occurred from 2000 to 2010,when its population increased by 9,777 or 35.5 % or a very good 3.6% annually. That increase compared to growth of 4,848 or 21.4 %or 2.1 %per year on average between 1990 and 2000. Over the past four years (2010 to 2014), Bozeman's population increased by 4,374 or 11.7 % or 2.9 % annually, from 37,286 in 2010 to 41,660 in 2014. We should also note that over the past year(2013 -2014), the City's population increased by 4.6 %, well above the past four year average of 2.9 %. From 2010 to 2014, Bozeman had the 2°1 largest overall numeric increase of any city in the State, following only the City of Billings. In addition, the City also ranked 2"by percentage increase over the same period(among cities with a population 3,000 or more). In 2014, the City of Bozeman population made up 42.8 %of the entire Gallatin County population, up from 40.6 % in 2000. Nielsen is projecting an increase of 7.0 % or 1.4%annually over the next 5 years (2015 - 2020). That projection seems quite low, especially given increases over the past 2 - 3 years. As noted, from 2013 to 2014, the Census has estimated an increase of 4.6%. We should note that the 2015 estimate for Bozeman from Nielsen is 41,138, compared to the 2014 estimate from the Census of 41,660. In 2015 according to Nielsen, 17.6 %of the population was under age 18, while 17.8 % were age 55+ and 9.2 %were age 65+. The median age in 2015 is 29.9, compared to 28.2 in 2010. By race, 92.6 %were White, 2.3 %were Asian or Pacific Islander, 2.3 % were of Two or More Races and 3.2 %were of Hispanic Ancestry. Senior Population Over the past five years (2010 - 2015), the age 55+population in the market area has increased by 1,326 or 22.1 % or 4.4 %per year on average. That is more than double the increase of 2.1 % for the general population over the same period. Between 2010 and 2015,the age 65+population grew by 773 or 25.6 %, a 5.1 %annual rate of growth, again well above the increase for the general population. Nielsen is projecting that the number of seniors (age 55+) in the City/market are will increase by 937 over the next five years, from 7,337 in 2015 to 8,274 in 2020. That is an increase of 12.8 % or 2.6 % annually and compared to projected growth of 1.4 %per year on average for the general population. Over the next five years, the age 65+population is projected to increase by 993 or 26 % or 5 %annually. It is very clear that the senior population has been, and will continue to be,the fastest growing segment of the population in the Bozeman area. Households According to Nielsen/Ribbon, in 2015 there are 17,857 total households in the market area, an increase of 2,131 or 13.6% from the 2010 Census figure of 15,726. That was an annual average increase of 426 households and compared to growth of 503 annually between 2000 and 2010. Of the total existing households in the market area in 2015, 12,865 or 72.0 %were non-senior, with the remaining 4,992 or 28.0%being age eligible seniors (55+). In 2015, renter tenure for all households in the market area was a very high 54.2%, with senior renter tenure at 28.1 %. So: 28.1 %x 4,992 (existing senior households)= 1,403 total senior renter tenure households in 2015. Nielsen has projected that by the year 2020,the total number of households will grow to 19,337, an increase of 1,480 or 8.3 %from the 2015 estimate, an annual average increase of 296 new households. Of the new households entering the market area over the next five years, Ribbon is projecting that 579 or 116 annually will be senior. Of those,they are projecting that 295 or 59 per year on average will be renter tenure. Economic Overview Employment in the City of Bozeman was unchanged from 2009 and 2010, before increasing every year since. Between 2010 and 2014, employment in Bozeman increased by 3,661 or 17.9 %, a very strong 4.5 % annually. We should note that between 2013 and 2014, employment was up by 4.5 %, after an increase of 6.8 % from 2012 to 2013. The latest monthly figure available for employment is from July 2015, which showed total employment at 26,722, an increase of 1,098 or 4.3 %when compared to the July 2014 figure. In Gallatin County, employment has increased every year since 2010, growing by 6,492 or 13.3 %or 3.3 %per year on average. Like Bozeman, employment in the County was up substantially from 2012 to 2014, increasing by 10.9 %or 5.45 %per year on average. Again,the latest monthly figure available for employment is from July 2015, which showed total employment in Gallatin County at 61,267, a very good increase of 2,518 or 4.3 %when compared to the July 2014 figure. Over the past 10 years, the unemployment rate for the City and County have remained below both State and National averages. Between 2005 and 2014, the County unemployment rate averaged 4.5 %, compared to 4.1 % for the City of Bozeman, 5.4 % for the State and 7.0%for the National average. The unemployment rate in both Bozeman and Gallatin County has decreased every year since decade highs in 2009, dropping from 6.1 %to 3.1 % in 2014 in Bozeman, and from 7.0 %to 3.5 %in 2014 in Gallatin County. The latest monthly figure available is from July 2015, which showed the unemployment rate in the County at 2.5 %, down from 2.9% in July 2014. In the City of Bozeman, the rate dropped from 2.8 %in July 2014 to 2.5 % in July 2015. Overall, we would rate economic conditions in the County as very good. Total employment in the County increased by 4.5 % in both Bozeman and Gallatin County from 2013 to 2014 and was up by 4.3 % in both areas when comparing July 2015 to July 2014. The unemployment rate has decreased every year in both areas (City & County) since 2009 and dropped from 4.1 % in 2013 to 3.5 % in 2014 in the County, and from 3.8 % in 2013 to 3.1 % in 2014 in Bozeman. In addition, the rates were down in both areas when comparing the latest monthly figures available. MARKET AREA PROFILE-CITY OF BOZEMAN Population: Change %Chanize 2000(Census) 27,043 2010(Census) 37,280 10,237 37.9% 2015 (Estimate) 41,138 3,858 10.3 % 2020(Projection) 44,003 2,865 7.0% Population by Race: 2010 2015 2020 White 93.6% 92.6% 91.4% Black 0.5 % 0.8% 1.2% American Indian 1.1 % 1.5 % 1.8% Asian or Pacific Islander 2.0% 2.3 % 2.6% Other Race 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.8% Two or More races 2.1 % 2.3 % 2.4% Hispanic Ancestry 2.9% 3.2 % 3.5 % Population by Age: 0- 17 15.7% 17.6% 18.4% 18-24 27.8% 22.1 % 17.2 % 25 -34 20.4% 21.1 % 20.9 % 35 -44 10.6% 12.6% 14.9% 45 - 54 9.4% 8.7% 9.8 % 55 - 64 8.0 % 8.6% 7.9% 65- 74 3.7 % 5.1 % 6.7 % 75&Older 4.4% 4.1 % 4.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Median Age- 28.2 29.9 31.9 Households: Change %of Change 2000(Census) 10,699 2010(Census) 15,726 5,027 47.0% 2015 (Estimate) 17,857 2,131 13.6% 2020(Projection) 19,337 1,480 8.3 % 2015 2020 Non-Senior Households 12,865 72.0% 13,766 71.2% Senior Households(55+) 4,992 28.0% 5,571 28.8% 17,857 100.0% 19,337 100.0% 2015 %Households With 1 person 35.0% With 2 persons 35.5 % With 3 persons 16.2% With 4 persons 9.2% With 5 persons 2.9% With 6 persons 0.8% With 7+persons 0.3 % Average Household Size-2.13 2015 Housing Units: Total Housing Units 19,493 Occupied Housing Units 17,857 -91.6% Owner Occupied 7,814 -45.8% Renter Occupied 9,298 - 54.2% Vacant Housing Units 1,636 - 9.2% 2015 -Units in Structure: One unit detached 42.5 % One unit attached 9.1 % Two units 8.5 % Three-Four 14.7% Five-Nineteen 13.9% Twenty-Forty-nine 2.6% Fifty or more 3.3 % Mobile Homes 5.4% Other 0.0% Household Income: 2000 2015 2020 $ 0- $ 14,999 2,077 19.4% 2,253 12.6% 2,056 10.6% $ 15,000- $24,999 1,939 18.2% 2,297 12.9% 2,148 11.1 % $25,000- $34,999 1,735 16.2% 2,224 12.5 % 2,246 11.6% $35,000-$49,999 1,956 18.3 % 2,328 13.0% 2,419 12.5 % $ 50,000- $74,999 1,717 16.1 % 3,189 18.0% 3,361 17.4% $ 75,000-$99,999 708 6.6% 2,115 11.8% 2,356 12.2 % $ 100,000+ 549 5.1 % 2,451 19.3 % 4,751 24.6% 10,681 100.0% 17,857 100.0% 19,337 100.0% Median Household Income $32,634 $48,882 $ 55,947 Average Household Income $40,637 $69,548 $78,731 Source:Nielsen 03/28/15 Households by Income Market Area Renter Households by Household Size-2015 Senior 55+Households 1-Person 2-Persons 3+Persons $ 0- 10,000 78 20 4 $ 10,000-20,000 190 47 10 $20,000-30,000 65 62 17 $30,000-40,000 115 64 10 $40,000- 50,000 90 67 8 $ 50,000-60,000 69 26 13 $60,000+ 221 149 78 Totals 828 435 140 Renter Households by Household Size-2017* Senior 55+Households 1-Person 2-Persons3+Persons $0- 10,000 81 23 7 $ 10,000-20,000 188 47 10 $20,000-30,000 71 69 16 $30,000-40,000 123 74 10 $40,000- 50,000 96 66 8 $ 50,000-60,000 74 28 15 $60,000+ 267 169 79 Totals 900 476 145 * For the 2017 figures,we have pro-rated the difference between 2015 and 2020 Renter Households by Household Size-2020 Senior 55+Households 1-Persons 2-Persons 3+Persons $0- 10,000 86 27 11 $ 10,000-20,000 186 47 9 $20,000-30,000 79 79 15 $30,000-40,000 135 88 10 $40,000- 50,000 104 64 8 $ 50,000-60,000 81 31 18 $60,000+ 336 202 82 Totals 1,007 538 153 Source:Ribbon Demographics C. I lousing I -ends Housing Units - City of Bozeman According to the City of Bozeman Planner, Tara Hastie, there are currently several small market rate apartment projects in planning. Those projects include about 50 - 60 total units. Additionally, the number of single family homes permitted in the City has increased significantly over the past few years, especially in 2013. Since 2012, the City has permitted over 1,000 new homes and another 1,050 multi-family units. Ms. Hastie noted that there are a large number of sub-division and PUD's planned over the next several years. That will increase the number of single family (attached and detached)homes in the Bozeman area. Some of those PUD's will also include a multi-family element. Housing Units - City of Bozeman According to the 2010 Census, there were 17,464 total housing units in the City of Bozeman, an increase of 5,820 from the 2000 Census total of 11,644. In addition, when looking at the building permits issued from the 04/2010 Census through July 2015, approximately 2,358 housing units have been added for an estimated total of 19,822. The average age of housing in Bozeman is very new with 56.0 %being built after 1990 and 75.1 % since 1970. Conversely, 18.5 %were built prior to 1960 and 9.8 %before 1940. Sub-standard and Rent Overburden Renter Housing nits Lacking Complete Plumbing Facilities - 17 or 0.2 % Over Crowded - more than 1.01 persons per room - 186 or 2.1 % Rent Overburden - paying more than 35 %of household income to rent- 3,242 or 36.6 % paying more than 50%of household income to rent-2,069 or 23.3 % Source: U.S. Census - 2011-2013 American Community Survey (3-Year Estimates) Building Permits Between 2005 and 2014, the City of Bozeman issued permits for 5,136 new residential units (single&multi-family). Of that total, 2,459 or 47.9 %were single family, with the remaining 2,677 or 52.1 %being multi-family units. Over the past ten years the City has averaged about 268 multi-family units per year, with the majority of those units permitted in the early to middle part of the decade, and in 2013 and 2014. From 2005 to 2007 the City permitted 1,369 multi-family units or 456 new units annually, compared to just 72 per year on average from 2008 to 2011. Over the past three years (2012-2014), the number of multi-family permits issued has increased strongly averaging 350 per year(1,050 total). From 2005 to 2014, Bozeman has averaged a very good 246 single family permits annually, again with the majority of those being issued from 2005 to 2007 and 2012 to 2014. In 2014, the City permitted 295 single family homes, down from the 432 permitted in 2013. Through July 2015,the City has permitted another 178 single family and 146 multi-family units. d. Supply and Demand Analysis i. Market Rate Supply 1. Existing In 2015 the market area included 9,681 or 54.2 %rental units out of the total 17,857 occupied housing units. These units include all types of rental housing including mobile homes, single family homes and apartment complexes. The Bozeman area has a very high number of rentals due mainly to the student population at Montana State University. In 2015, duplex units in the market area made up 8.5 % or 1,655 units of the total, while 3 -4 unit buildings made up 14.7% or 2,865 units and structures with 5 or more units made up 19.8 % of the total or 3,864 units. In total, there are 8,384 multi-family units in the market area. Keep in mind that many of these are owner occupied condominium units. In looking at current vacancy rate of 0.2 %, it is clear that there is a severe shortage of market rate units in the City. The ten multi-family rental projects surveyed in the Bozeman area were a mix of older projects (built in the 1970's to 1980's), to newly built(2000 to 2015). That is very similar to the overall rental market in the City. There are a good number of older projects in the City, with most being in good condition. Additionally,there were a large number of projects built over the past 8 - 10 years. As noted, since 2005 the City has permitted 2,677 multi-family units. We should note that some of these units are restricted to the student population at MSU, although the majority of rentals are open to anyone. In the market area there is also a good variety of unit sizes (1, 2, 3 and 4 bedrooms), with the majority of projects being 1 - 3 story garden style communities. The majority of these units are flats, although there are several townhome style units in the City. 2. Potential/Developing At the present time according to Tara Hastie,with the City of Bozeman Planning Department, there are several smaller market rate multi-family projects in planning in the City. Those projects include from 10 -20 units each for a total of 50 - 60 units. ii. Market Rate Demand 1. Vacancy Rates, Incentives Rental Vacancy Our latest survey of the Bozeman area includes ten (10) market rate projects with 1,008 total units, an average complex size of 101 units and compared to 136 at the subject(note that while the Castlebar Apartments includes just 7 market rate units,the entire complex is 72 units, with remaining units tax credit). The projects surveyed however ranged in size from 24 to 218 units. In this most recent survey, we found just two total vacancies for a 0.2 %vacancy rate. That compared 1.0% rate in July 2014 and a 0.0 %rate in a survey of nine of the ten projects in August 2013. In December 2011, the rate was at 1.3 %with ten total vacancies found. Of the two vacancies found in our current study, both were two bedrooms units. Only one of the market rate projects surveyed (Mountain View)was offering rental incentives, and that was $150 off the first month rent for their vacant unit. 2. Rent Trends Since December 2010, rents at the area's one bedroom units have increased by about 18 % on average, while two bedroom one bath rents increased by 21 %. Rents at the area's two bedroom two bath units saw the largest increase at 58 %, with three bedroom units increasing by 16 %. In fact, over the past 15 months (July 2014 to September 2015), rents have grown by 7 - 11 % on average. We have listed below a summary of rents we obtained in our rental survey of the Bozeman area. In addition,we have listed a"Net Adjusted Market Rent." We have taken into account, unit sizes, age of the project, comparable unit and project amenities. Proposed Averaize Market Rent Rose Park Rent Gan One bedroom one bath $ 807.00 $ 888.00 $429 - 626.00 30- 52 % Two bedroom one bath $ 923.00 $ 1,015.00 NA NA Two bedroom two bath $ 1,101.00 $ 1,100.00 $ 515 - 738.00 33 -53 % 3. Absorption We were not able to obtain any absorption information from existing market rate projects as none of the newer communities were willing to divulge that information. However, the manager at the newly opened Sundance at Baxter Apartments did comment that they were able to fill all 192 of her units as buildings were released. iii. Rent-Restricted Supply 1. Existiny, The market area consists of one Senior tax credit projects with 61 units. That project, like the subject is a 3 story elevator ed building with controlled entry. The City also includes several low income senior communities, all of which are 100 %occupied.. Additionally, there are eight income restricted family housing projects with 458 total units. Six of the family projects are family tax credit communities, with two low income government subsidized projects. The six tax credit projects include 344 total units and the two low income family projects including 114 units. Five of the six tax credit communities are two story garden style, with the sixth being a townhome project. Both of the low income government subsidized projects surveyed are also two story garden style. 2. Potential/Developing In 2014,the Montana Board of Housing funded a 48 unit family tax credit community, Stoneridge Apartments. This project includes 2 & 3 bedroom units at 40, 50 & 60 %of the area median income. Stoneridge is located at N. 27"Ave. & Turbulence Lane. The subject will be located on the western part of that lot iv. Rent-Restricted Demand 1. New Unit Demand Using the project's pre-determined income ranges,we have calculated on the following page that there is currently a need for an additional 689 rental units for non-senior households with incomes at 50 - 60 %of the area median income. We have also determined that by the projected opening in December 2016, that number will increase by 17 units for a total of 706. NEW UNIT ANNUAL DEMAND ESTIMATE *************************************************************************** DEMAND FROM EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS: 1. Number of existing senior households for 2015 in market area 4,992 2. Number of renter senior households - 28.1 %x 4,994= 1,403 3. Household Size Eligible (1 - 2 persons) - 90.02 %x 1,403 = 1,263 4. Number of income qualified renters 20.0 %x 1,263 = 252 ($ 14,709 - $ 32,940) 5. Movership/turnover rate - 48.9 % (Geographic Mobility for Bozeman 123 for renter tenure households - U.S. Census Bureau S0701) 6. Estimated demand from existing rental households 123 DEMAND FROM NEW HOUSEHOLD GROWTH: The figures above represent the total number of existing qualified households. If we look only at new demand from growth, we will use projected new households who will move into the market area by 2017 Demand from New Households for Tax Credit Units: 1. Estimated number of new non-senior 1-5 persons renter tenure households that will enter market area between 2015 & 2017 113 2. Annual demand - 1 year divided by 113 = 56 3. Number of income qualified households -20.0 %(percentage of households that fall into the predetermined income range - see Calculation of Eligible Households). So 20.0 %x 56 = 11 4. Estimated annual demand from new households 11 Total annual demand from existing and new renter households - 123+ 11 = 134 2. Vacancy Rates As noted, there is one existing competitive senior tax credit community,the 61 unit Bridger Peaks apartments. That project is fully occupied and include names on its wait list. We also surveyed the six existing tax credit projects in Bozeman with 344 units,with all being 100 %occupied, the same result as in our July 2014 and August 2013 surveys. . Lastly, we surveyed the two existing low income senior communities with 160 total units. Both projects were 100 %occupied and included wait lists, with and names. 3. Market Penetration Anal Calculation of Eligible Households For the purposes of this report we will calculate the number of eligible households based on income of 40 - 60 %AMI. The proposed Rose Park Senior apartment project to be located in Bozeman, Montana will include of 42 tax credit units. Unit mix with net rents: 3 - One bedroom one bath @ 40 %of Median $ 429.00 14 - One bedroom one bath @ 50 %of Median $ 557.00 7 -One bedroom one bath @ 60 %of Median $ 626.00 2 - Two bedroom two bath @ 40 %of Median $ 515.00 12 - Two bedroom two bath @ 50 % of Median $ 669.00 4 - Two bedroom two bath @ 60 %of Median $ 738.00 42 - Total units 2015 Income Limits - Gallatin County One Person $ 23,939 -49 % $24,050 - 50% $26,455 - 55 % $ 28,860 - 60 % Two Persons $ 27,324 -49% $27,450 - 50% $ 30,195 - 55 % $ 32,940 - 60% Source: Montana Board of Housing-Effective March 6, 2015 For purposes of this report we will make our calculations based on 1 person for the one bedroom units and 2 persons for the two bedroom units. Minimum Typically, for the calculation of number of eligible households for the tax credit units,we consider that prospective residents will spend no more than 30%of their income on housing. However, for a senior development,we will assume 35 %. It is our experience that seniors will pay a little more for good quality secure housing. One bedroom units @ 40 %_ $429.00 divided by .35 x 12 months=$ 14,709 One bedroom units @ 50 %_ $ 557.00 divided by .35 x 12 months= $ 19,097 One bedroom units @ 60 %_$ 626.00 divided by .35 x 12 months= $ 21,463 Two bedroom units @ 40%_ $ 515.00 divided by .35 x 12 months= $ 17,657 Two bedroom units @ 50 %_ $ 669.00 divided by .35 x 12 months= $22,937 Two bedroom units @ 60 %_ $ 738.00 divided by .35 x 12 months=$25,303 Qualifying Ranges One bedroom units @ 40%_ $ 14,709 to $23,939 (based on 1 person @ 49 %) One bedroom units @ 50%_ $ 19,097 to $ 26,455 (based on 1 person @ 50 %) One bedroom units @ 60 %_ $21,463 to $28,860 (based on I person @ 60 %) Two bedroom units @ 40%_ $ 17,657 to $27,324 (based on 2 persons @ 49 %) Two bedroom units @ 50%_ $22,937 to $ 30,195 (based on 2 persons @ 50 %) Two bedroom units @ 60 %_$ 25,303 to $ 32,940 (based on 2 persons @ 60 %) As to not double count households, we will narrow the income ranges Expanded Ranges One bedroom units @ 50 %_$ 14,709 to $ 20,960 One bedroom units @ 60 %_$ 20,960 to $ 25,660 One bedroom units @ 50 %_ $ 25,660 to $28,860 Two bedroom units @ 60%_$ 17,657 to $24,657 Two bedroom units @ 50 %_ $ 24,657 to $ 29,757 Two bedroom units @ 60%_ $29,757 to $ 32,940 Determining the Number of Eligible Households Although some of the potential residents will come from outside the market area, we have asked Nielsen/Ribbon Demographics to provide us with the number of households, as well as the incomes for the primary market area,which we have previously mentioned will be the City of Bozeman. The data we have received is based on 2015 figures, with income limits also from 2015. Eligibility for Tax Credit Units Step One -According to Nielsen/Ribbon, in 2015 the total number of households in the primary market area was 17,857. Of the total households, 4,992 or 30.0 %were senior(age 55+). Step Two - We will now determine the total eligible by tenure. While renter tenure for the market area in 2015 was 54.21 %, for seniors it was 28.1 %, so: 4,992 - Existing senior households in market area in 2015 x 28.1 % - Senior renter tenure = 1,403 - Senior households with renter tenure in the market area In the market area, there are 828 one person, age 55+households (one bedroom units) and 435 two person age 55+households (two bedrooms), for a total of 1,263 1 &2 person senior renter households Step Three - We will now calculate the total number of income eligible households. That is, the total number of the lowest to highest ranges of those households whose incomes range between $ 14,709 and $ 32,940. The number of non-senior households that fit the project's predetermined income range =20.0 %. 1,263 - Existing 1-2 person senior renter tenure households in 2015 x 20.0 % -Percentage of 2015 households with incomes between $ 14,709& $ 32,940 = 252 - Income eligible non-senior renter households Household Projection Between 2015 and 2020,Nielsen/Ribbon has projected that an additional 579 senior households will enter the market area. Of those,they have projected that 295 will be renter tenure, with 282 including 1 - 2 persons, an annual average increase of 56 one to two person senior renter households. Of those, we will assume that 0.0 % or 11 annually will also be income eligible. On the following page, we will calculate the number of eligible households by bedroom size: Eligibility bility for Three(3)One Bedroom Units cr.40/49%of Median: Monthly rent: $429.00 Income eligible range: $ 14,709 - 20,960 (minimum and maximum) Targeted group: Senior Households Total existing senior households: 4,992 Renter tenure: 28.1 %x 4,992 = 1,403 total eligible households with renter tenure Household size: (I persons) 59.0 %x 1,403 = 828 Financially eligible: 12.9 %x 828 = 107 eligible households ************************************************************************** Eligibility for Fourteen (14)One Bedroom Units Q 50/55 %of Median: Monthly rent: $ 557.00 Income eligible range: $ 20,960 - 25,660 (minimum and maximum) Targeted group: Senior Households Total existing senior households: 4,992 Renter tenure: 28.1 %x 4,992 = 1,403 total eligible households with renter tenure Household size: (I persons) 59.0 %x 1,403 = 828 Financially eligible: 3.74 %x 828 =31 eligible households *************************************************************************** Eligibility for Seven (7) One Bedroom Units @ 60 %of Median: Monthly rent: $ 626.00 Income eligible range: $ 25,660 - 28,860 (minimum and maximum) Targeted group: Senior Households Total existing senior households: 4,992 Renter tenure: 28.1 %x 4,992 = 1,403 total eligible households with renter tenure Household size: (1 persons) 59.0%x 1,403 = 828 Financially eligible: 2.54 %x 828 =21 eligible households *************************************************************************** Eligibility for Two (2) Two Bedroom Units (a,40/49 % of Median: Monthly rent: $ 515.00 Income eligible range: $ 17,657 - 24,657 (minimum and maximum) Targeted group: Senior Households Total existing senior households: 4,992 Renter tenure: 28.1 %x 4,992 = 1,403 total eligible households with renter tenure Household size: (I persons) 31.0%x 1,403 =435 Financially eligible: 9.2 %x 435 =40 eligible households Eli ig bility for Twelve (12)Two Bedroom Units a,50/55 %of Median: Monthly rent: $ 569.00 Income eligible range: $ 24,657 -29,757 (minimum and maximum) Targeted group: Senior Households Total existing senior households: 4,992 Renter tenure: 28.1 %x 4,992 = 1,403 total eligible households with renter tenure Household size: (I persons) 31.0 %x 1,403 =435 Financially eligible: 7.4 %x 435 =32eligible households :k:k x W:k W*;k�;k:k x;k:k W:k W x W;!::k ie:k:k W�e:k:k:�::F•�:N:is:k�::k:k*:k:k t;k:k:k ie:k:F•:k;k:k*:k�:r,.:�::{::�:.k:k%k;k*;(c;+,;{:1:f::k�::.,�:x,.::::k:k;t: Eligibility for Four(4) Two Bedroom Units 60%of Median: Monthly rent: $ 738.00 Income eligible range: $ 29,757 - 32,940 (minimum and maximum) Targeted group: Senior Households Total existing senior households: 4,992 Renter tenure: 28.1 %x 4,992 = 1,403 total eligible households with renter tenure Household size: (I persons) 31.0%x 1,403 =435 Financially eligible: 4.8 %x 435 =21 eligible households Summary of Eligible Households Proposed Eligible Capture Units Households Rate One bedroom units @ 40/49 % 3 107 2.8 % One bedroom units @ 50/55 % 14 31 45.2 % One bedroom units @ 60 % 7 21 33.3 % Total One bedroom units 24 159 15.1 % Two bedroom units @ 40/49 % 2 40 5.0 % Two bedroom units @ 50/55 % 12 32 37.5 % Two bedroom units @ 60% 4 21 19.0 % Total Two bedroom units 18 93 19.4 % Total Project 42 252 16.7 % Capture Rate Projected income eligible tenants who will move in the next year/proposed units Projected income eligible tenants who will move in the next year 252 Proposed units 42 Capture Rate 16.7 % Absorption Rate Proposed Units/existing LIH, market area units required Proposed/existing units (61/42) 103 LIH units Required 123 Absorption Rate 83.7 % Penetration Rate Existing LIH units/total eligible households Income &tenure eligible households 252 Existing competitive LIHTC Senior Units (40 - 60%) - 61 LIHTC units in planning/under construction (40, 50 & 60 %) 0 Total 191 Units Proposed 42 Penetration Rate 22.0 % 4. Project Absorption for Project Absorption In looking at the potential absorption of a project, it is always helpful to look at the recent success of similar project's opening in the market area. Unfortunately, no senior tax credit communities have opened since Bridger Peaks in 2004. However, in looking at all of the information in the study, it is our opinion that the subject will lease at a rate of 14 - 16 units per month with stable occupancy in 3 months. v. Analysis of Project's Special-Needs-NA vi. Conclusion: Proposed Project's Competitive Position vi. Conclusion -Proposed Project's Competitive Position In looking at all of the information in the study, it is our opinion that the subject will fill one of the biggest needs in the community,that is for affordable rental units for very low to low income senior. To be sure, there is also a need for low income units for families, although as noted,there is a 48 unit family tax credit project currently under construction, directly east of the subject location. The subject will provide good quality units, with a strong amenity package at rents well below market(30 - 53 %). At the one existing competitive project in the area, Bridger Peaks, all units were fully occupied. In addition is had a wait list of names. The project manager of Bridger Peaks was very supportive of a new senior development and felt that it would have no real affect on her project. She noted that she receive a good number of daily phone calls and personal site visits from persons looking for a unit, but who are in immediate need and choose not to be put on a wait list. Additionally, all existing low income senior projects (government subsidized), are also 100%occupied with all including long wait lists. We have determined using the subject's pre-determined income ranges, that there are currently 252 size, income and tenure eligible senior households in the market area. While the overall capture are on the high side, keep Taking all of these factors into consideration, we feel that there are more than enough households in the market area to support this proposed project. The population of Bozeman has increased at a very good rate since at least 1990 and in fact, over the past five years the City has increased by a very good 2.9 %per year on average, including a 4.6 % increase from 2013 to 2014. While projections indicate a slowing of that growth over the next five year,the City's population will continue to grow at a good rate. In looking at existing projects and taking into account the subject's strong location, we feel that the proposed Larkspur Commons will be very successful if built as planned. IV. COMPETITIVE RENTAL MARKET a. Description of Comparable Properties i. Analysis of Rents, including Amenities and Utilities: The subject Rose Park Senior will be very similar to existing market rate projects in the City in terms of condition and finishes. The ten market rate projects surveyed were a mix of older communities to newly built (within the past few months), and all would be considered as in good condition. We should note that at one of the market rate projects surveyed, Castlebar,the majority of units (65) are tax credit, with just 7 units at market rate. The ten projects surveyed included 1,008 units for an average of 101 units. The projects however ranged in size from 24 to 161 units and compared to 42 at the subject. Project Amenities The subject Rose Park Apartments will include a community room w/kitchen, computer and exercise area, as well as a BBQ area w/tables and covered parking. On average, existing market rate projects in Bozeman would be considered as about equal to the subject in terms of project based amenities, with the exception of the three newest projects in the area. Of the ten market rate projects surveyed, five included laundry facilities, a community room and fitness center, with four including BBQ/picnic areas, extra storage and a children's play area, with three including a business center, garages and a pool or spa. As noted, three of the projects in our survey would be superior to the subject when comparing project amenities. Those three projects are Mountain View, Trout Meadows and the newly built Sundance at Baxter. Those include a business center, fitness center and community room, with Trout Meadows and Sundance including a pool and spa. Rents at those three projects are among the highest in the area and well above the proposed rents at Rose Park. Unit Amenities The subject will include all basic kitchen appliances including refrigerator, range, dishwasher, disposal and microwave as well as a washer/dryer in the unit, floor coverings, blinds, air conditioning, a patio/balcony and additional storage. At the market rate projects surveyed, all ten included carpets, blinds, all basic kitchen appliances with nine of the ten including a dishwasher and/or disposal. Six included a microwave and patio or balcony (three w/outside storage),with four including washer/dryers in the units and ceiling fan. Two included washer/dryer hookups, AC and walk-in closets. We would rate unit features at the subject as slightly superior on average to these ten projects. Unit Size Comparison Range Average Subject One bedroom one bath 530 - 854 S.F. 674 S.F. 750 S.F. Two bedroom one bath 725 - 950 S.F. 851 S.F. NA Two bedroom two bath 900 - 1,100 S.F. 1,010 S.F. 980 S.F. The one bedroom unit size at the subject is about 11 % larger on average than the ten market rate projects surveyed for this study. The two bedroom two bath units are slightly smaller(by 3 %), but well within the range of existing projects. Comparison to Other Rent Restricted Projects In the market area there is just one existing senior tax credit community, the 61 unit Bridger Peaks Apartments. Additionally, there are six family projects with 344 units. All of the existing projects including family and senior are in good condition and would be comparable to the subject in terms of overall condition. Project Amenities The subject Rose Park Apartments will include a community room w/kitchen, computer and exercise area, as well as a BBQ area w/tables and covered parking. The one competitive senior project, Bridger Peaks includes controlled entry, a community room w/kitchen, as well as a common patio. We would rate the subject Rose Park, as superior to this project when comparing project amenities. At five of the six existing family projects, all included a community room, laundry facilities, a BBQ/picnic area and a children's play area, with one including a business center, basketball court and bike racks. The sixth project,the 11 unit Haggerty Lane, includes a play area, BBQ/picnic area and bike racks. On average the subject would be about equal to these six existing family projects. Unit Amenities The subject will include all basic kitchen appliances including dishwasher, disposal and microwave as well as washer/dryers in the units, floor coverings, blinds, air conditioning, a patio/balcony and additional storage. At the six family projects, all included all