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HomeMy WebLinkAbout15- HDR_COB_DroughtManagementPlan_01Proposal 2015 Drought Management Plan City of Bozeman Water Conservation Division September 4, 2015 September 4, 2015 Lain Leoniak, JD, CLIA City of Bozeman Water Conservation Center P.O. Box 1230 Bozeman, MT 5971-1230 RE: CITY OF BOZEMAN 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN Dear Ms. Leoniak, The City of Bozeman (COB) has taken a diligent step towards developing a reliable and resilient water supply system to serve its rapidly growing community. The development of a definitive Drought Management Plan (DMP) will enable Bozeman to be proactive to the risk posed by drought to the region and provide the city with the necessary information to make informed decisions regarding drought mitigation and response. The COB’s goals for the DMP project are to obtain the following:  A firm understanding of how current and projected conditions, such as precipitation variability and climate change will impact water supply reliability.  A fresh perspective in assessing water supply reliability and risk .  A DMP that will set the stage for attaining local and regional water supply resiliency so that the COB can insure future sustainable community growth. HDR Engineering is well-established in Montana with offices in Missoula, Billings, and Bozeman. We have a history of successfully working with the COB on community issues through a strong technical presence and good communication. We have assembled a multi-disciplinary team that will deliver an in-depth and scientifically defensible DMP that will be technically sound, yet be easy to use and understand. Selecting HDR will provide the COB with the following key benefits to deliver your project goals: LOCAL PRESENCE WITH STRONG LEADERSHIP TO COMMUNICATE AND DELIVER HDR’s project manager, Daniel March, brings 27 years of experience and proven success in water resources and planning in Montana and the Pacific Northwest. His experience will provide the COB with keen insights into local and regional water supply/resource issues. hdrinc.com 682 South Ferguson Ave., Suite 1, Bozeman MT 59718-6491T 406.577.5015 MONTANA WATER RESOURCES EXPERIENCED TEAM The HDR Team includes Ben Fennelly and Matt Peterson who have performed Hydrologic analysis using statistical parameters throughout the region and specifically for the cities of Missoula, Billings, and Bozeman. They both have a strong knowledge of local water resources, particularly concerning surface water flows. SPECIALIZED RESOURCES HDR’s team of experts include senior hydro-meteorologist Michael McMahon, who, in addition to his 30 years as an atmospheric scientist, is HDR’s climate change and resiliency lead scientist; Nathan Clements, hydro-meteorologist and senior GIS analyst, will provide web content and GIS analysis for the DMP; Blaine Dwyer, HDR’s national integrated water supply planning director will provide oversight and guidance for this critical project. At the conclusion of this project, the COB will have received a clear and concise DMP that will remain as an iterative tool backed by technically sound science that can be expanded and adjusted over time as the COB grows and its needs change. We look forward to partnering with you on this critical project. If you have any questions or comments, please contact Daniel March at 406-577-5015 or Ben Fennelly at 406-577-5019. Sincerely, HDR Engineering, Inc. Daniel March, PE, CFM Michael McMahon, ENV SP Project Manager/ Senior Hydro-Meteorolgist/ Senior Water Project Engineer Water Business Group Climate Change and Resilency Lead hdrinc.com 682 South Ferguson Ave., Suite 1, Bozeman MT 59718-6491T 406.577.5015 01 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan Project Understanding Combining recognized local water resources knowledge with national technical expertise to evaluate water reliability from a fresh perspective with the purpose of developing a tool tailored to meet the City of Bozeman’s needs, now, and into the future. The City of Bozeman (COB) is taking a progressive step towards water supply resiliency by expressing the need for an up-to-date and definitive Drought Management Plan (DMP) as part of the city’s Integrated Water Resources Plan. As stated by the COB in the Request for Proposals (RFP), this is the most efficient and cost-effective approach to developing a reliable and resilient water supply system to serve Bozeman’s growing community. This DMP study will analyze and synthesize hydro-meteorological data from the planning area and beyond in order to develop a plan that will enable the COB to maintain a level of service under adverse conditions that the residents of Bozeman have come to expect as part of their everyday lives. With recent findings in climate change research and the projection of increased variability in precipitation and runoff, the city wants a reassessment of drought risk and the development of robust mitigation strategies that will lead to proactive response actions. HDR has a thorough understanding of the challenges facing the development of this DMP and has developed a winning approach to help the COB meet the objectives of the project. Figure 1 presents our understanding of the key project challenges. Our approach provides the COB with a fresh perspective to the project while addressing issues with innovative solutions. PHOTO BY FEETYOUWEAR 02 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan Project Approach Task 1 Historic Analysis and Drought Monitoring Task 2 Vulnerability Assessment Task 3 Mitigation and Adaptation Actions Task 4 Response Actions — On Varying Time Scales Goal An operational, web-based DMP defining data input, drought status, detailing decision support, and assigning roles and responsibilities. Task 5 Administrative Framework — A Workshop Task 6 Finalization of DMP and Development of Web-Based Interface and Update Process We believe that the Operational and Administrative Framework (Task 5) elements of this project will be the key to the project’s success, so we are proposing a workshop to achieve buy-in and a complete level of understanding from project stakeholders. Figure 1, shown below, illustrates our overall approach to completing the project. This workshop will be facilitated by our project manager and includes presentations and discussion with our technical experts. This workshop, anticipated at the 90% completion level, will serve to provide COB decision makers with a thorough understanding of the scientific analysis and complexities of risks to water supplies, and, hopefully, elicit their input and commitment to the finalization and implementation of the DMP. Task 1 > Drought Monitoring and Data Analysis Drought risks facing the region of Southwestern Montana can be broken into three distinct conditions:  Occasional short droughts of varying severity lasting for a few months to a few years.  Extended, multi-year droughts such as those that have affected the southwestern states and California in the last decade.  Climate change effects that create a permanent shift towards longer, more frequent, or more severe droughts. Figure 1 > HDR’s Workplan HDR’s Workplan focuses on a robust and scientifically based assessment through collaborative partnership between COB staff, local HDR staff, and our national technical experts. 03 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan Secondary and/or drought-like conditions may exist in this region as a result of wildfire within the watersheds of the planning area. These “emergency conditions” will be included within this project work as an additional risk, as wildfires are often a consequence of drought. Task 1A HDR proposes to begin the drought monitoring process with an historic climatological data analysis of the seasonal variation of precipitation, temperature, streamflows, evapotranspiration, reservoir and groundwater levels, and records of drought and flood. A preliminary investigation of these data show a viable precipitation period of record (POR) from June 20, 1880 to present within the planning area. This data analysis will require some commitment from city staff to assist in obtaining local data, especially older hydrological data, that may not be able to be obtained elsewhere. This analysis will serve the following purposes for the development of an effective DMP:  It will serve as a baseline for benchmarking varying levels of drought and their anticipated impacts.  It will be used to identify potential data gaps that may need additional monitoring within the planning area (i.e. groundwater monitoring) to satisfy the needs of the DMP.  It can be utilized to correlate current or future conditions to historic periods of drought to provide a chronological template for identifying drought triggers for the DMP. The analysis of the historic record of these variables will lead to the establishment of a database for drought monitoring data that will be open-ended for the ingest and analysis of future field data. This task will serve the purpose of providing an expandable repository for drought information that is readily available to all users, while enabling the establishment of drought triggers through historic analysis for both a real-time and predictive assessment. Drought is an insidious risk that means different things to different people. Quantifying what constitutes a drought through data acquisition and analysis is key to developing effective drought triggers to promote a pro-active response; however, there is an additional qualitative aspect to drought that requires some consideration. HDR proposes to utilize its Bozeman staff to query local stakeholders regarding their perception of what constitutes a drought and to incorporate these findings to help temper the identification of drought triggers. Task 1B Once the historic analysis is complete, drought triggers will be developed that can be used as benchmarks for monitoring through the collection of field data from federal, state, and local city monitoring sites. Drought monitoring data will include all the same resources used in the historic analysis, if they are still current, as well as any new monitoring sites derived through the gap analysis identified as a result of the historic analysis (Task 1A). Drought monitoring data will include, but will not be limited to, information from Hyalite Reservoir levels, Bozeman Creek streamflows, Lyman Creek streamflows, precipitation totals from the region, groundwater, and snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Hyalite and Bozeman Creek watersheds. During the course of this project, HDR will work to develop the means to improve data collection and processing so that the DMP can be not only a tool for determining actions, but also a data repository for information that will be queried to trigger near- term drought response. Task 1C In 2005, HDR developed a Drought Mitigation Plan for Flathead Lake and Kerr Dam in the northwestern corner of MT for the Bureau of Indian Affairs that is still in use today. This project utilized a unique predictive technique to further refine and improve on the accuracy of drought recognition. This technique relied on the integration of widely accepted climatic-scale information (Multi-variate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index – MEI) into a correlation analysis with identified outcomes regarding drought management. This climatic information was used as a predictive indicator for observed seasonal stream flow volume for specific basins within the region. HDR proposes to incorporate lessons learned from this study to enhance the predictive capabilities of the DMP for the COB. This task will entail correlating monthly values for the MEI from 1950 to present with historic streamflows from the planning region for the same time period. As we learned through our work on the Flathead DMP, this type of hydro-climate analysis will provide significant insight and forewarning of the likelihood of a drought beginning as early as October of the preceding water year. This correlation analysis will become an additional predictive component for the DMP for the COB. A flow chart schematic utilized in this project appears in Figure 2. The Flathead Precipitation and Runoff Index (FPRI) in Figure 2 is a means for integrating current precipitation and SWE values into the process of drought forecast guidance. This will be changed to Bozeman Precipitation Runoff Index when used within this predictive tool for the COB. 04 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan Possible DMP (Monitor)MEI > 0.50 FPRI Jan < 2300 No DMP Anticipated No DMP Anticipated FPRI Jan < 2300 2300 < FPRI Jan < 3100 FPRI Jan > 3100 Possible DMP (Monitor) No DMP Anticipated Invoke DMP No DMP Anticipated Invoke DMP Figure 2 > Early January Schema Schema for forecast decision support for DMP for Flathead Lake, MT utilizing hydro-climate indices as predictive indicators for potential drought during the spring and summer following an early January analysis of the situation. YES NO YES NO MEI < -0.50 YES NO DELIVERABLES An iterative climatological database of drought information and qualitative feedback will be developed and incorporated into the final deliverable as detailed in Task 6. This database will provide the basis for determining drought triggers, while also becoming a repository for new monitoring data that will be used for decision making. DATA COLLECTION, DEVELOPMENT, AND ACCESS HDR will provide a definitive process for drought monitoring data collection, database development, and data access. This process will allow the COB to access the necessary data to confirm near-term drought situations through the use of the identifying metrics and triggers established in Task 1A that will be used to elicit mitigation and response actions. PREDICTIVE TOOL A predictive tool will be developed that will enable the COB to use the most recent hydro-climate data provided by the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory (esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/ mei) to make their own predictive analysis of the potential for future drought conditions. This information will be compared to forecast data, shown in Figure 3, from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to develop an understanding of an extended forecast outlook for drought within the planning area. 05 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan Task 2 > Vulnerability Assessment Although lack of precipitation and streamflow, which can be identified through drought monitoring, are indicative of a drought situation, other immediate threats such as wildfire and accidental contamination or long-term threats like climate change within the COB watersheds can also produce the same consequences as a traditional drought. Therefore, HDR proposes to investigate not only vulnerability to drought, but also to other possible threats within the system, which will lead to their own mitigation actions in Task 3. System vulnerabilities will be identified through a rigorous analysis of historic droughts and associated climatic data (Task 1), an analysis of immediate hazard events (i.e. wildfire), and from the long-term risk associated with climate change, as well as through a theoretical exercise drawing from the institutional knowledge and data from the COB system operators. “What if?” scenarios will be explored and, if possible, modeled to make quantifiable judgments regarding vulnerability (e.g. what if a fast-moving wildfire was to claim the Bozeman Creek watershed?). A vulnerability assessment will be developed that quantifies the level of risk presented by known hazards to the system. These system components may include, but are not limited to assessment of vulnerability of watersheds, facilities, pump stations, wells, streams and reservoirs/lakes. In order to facilitate a vulnerability assessment of long-term climate risk, HDR’s climate change expert, Michael McMahon, will examine previous climate change projections and analyses developed using the SimClim tool that can be made available by the COB. These analyses will be used to develop future drought scenarios to be utilized in alongside historic analyses developed in Task 1A to develop the necessary components of Tasks 2, 3 and 4 based on these climate change data and projections. DELIVERABLES In order to address and identify the vulnerabilities associated with the risk presented by drought, climate change, and other hazards in the planning area, HDR proposes to evaluate system vulnerabilities through the use of a risk matrix. This matrix will become the basis for what constitutes an identified risk that could trigger a specific level of drought/hazard declaration and proactive response. This matrix will include all threats to water supply on one axis, while identifying the quantified levels of vulnerability on the other axis. Each cell within this matrix will be used to describe the response actions determined in Task 4, as well as providing a guide to determining mitigation planning in Task 3. Although this matrix will be accompanied by supporting documentation, it will be designed to provide a quick and user- friendly methodology for determining and driving response actions (Task 4). Task 3 > Mitigation Actions A mixed tool kit is necessary to provide mitigating capabilities for drought conditions. Short droughts can typically be addressed by short-term curtailment and limited supply or operational enhancements; while more frequent, severe and long-lasting droughts could require continued cultural changes in water usage together with larger-scale supply and infrastructure improvements. The development of mitigation actions within the DMP will begin with a review of drought response actions that have been implemented by municipal water utilities in drought-affected Figure 3 > Data Comparison CPC three-month outlook for precipitation probability valid for September, October, and November of 2015. Vulnerability = (Exposure + Sensitivity) - Adaptive Capacity Risk = Threats x Vulnerabilities x Consequences 06 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan areas such as Texas, California, and Australia. Our team will then determine the efficiency of these actions as they apply to the DMP for the COB. This information will be compared with existing drought response within the COB’s Integrated Water Resources Plan to help expand the “tool kit” for drought mitigation options. This tool kit will include, but will not be limited to; an improved regional definition of drought triggers, modification or expansion of water curtailment strategies, potential infrastructure options, and ways to improve the effectiveness of actual implementation of strategies during a drought. DELIVERABLES Once all drought mitigation actions have been identified and evaluated, they will be prioritized according to their anticipated effectiveness against varying drought scenarios and their estimated cost-to-benefit ratio to achieve that effectiveness. This analysis and report will become part of the DMP documentation. Historically, this process has proven that residents of impacted regions are surprisingly more resilient than first perceived, and, thus, the necessity of large scale infrastructure options for mitigation becomes less likely, except in the most extreme scenarios. Task 4 > Response Actions Response actions, once defined, become the guiding principles for a community’s actions during a drought. They are a road map for what to do and when. They are designed to elicit the statement “Stick with the plan” during drought management situations. The mitigation actions taken in Task 3 are designed to improve the capabilities of the response actions identified, evaluated and prioritized in Task 4. Drought triggers developed through analysis of classification of what constitutes a certain level of drought in Task 1 will be used to identify vulnerabilities in Task 2, which will lead to a protocol for mitigating actions in Task 3, that will then become action items for inclusion at the forefront of the DMP in Task 4. HDR will develop a lookup table of response actions based on drought conditions identified and quantified through the first three tasks of this project. This lookup table will provide definitive guidance for drought management in such a way as to ensure understanding and promote proactive response. Users will be directed to the appropriate response actions through a step-by-step process drawing from the analysis and preparation provided by the other tasks. Much like a slow moving flood response plan, users will be directed to take the most optimally efficient action based on information developed through a rigorous scientific and engineering analysis of risk. DELIVERABLES A lookup table of response actions, including emergency response, that will be dictated by the other decision support processes within the DMP (i.e. monitoring, vulnerability assessment, and mitigation actions). Task 5 > Operational and Administrative Framework – A Workshop HDR views the operational and administrative framework as the engine that will drive success for the DMP. Developing consensus on decision making and the roles and responsibilities of city staff are as important as the strong technical analysis and strategic planning that will go into the work done in Tasks 1-4. In order to efficiently and openly address these issues, HDR proposes a 4 hour workshop at the COB offices that will call upon all stakeholders deemed necessary by the COB to attend and participate in. The workshop will occur at the 90% project completion milestone (a working copy of the DMP is complete) and will include a roles and responsibilities discussion as well as a test of the DMP with a theoretical drought scenario. This component of Task 5 will require 4 hours of time with city staff and other stakeholders on a date, time and place chosen through conversation with the COB PM and City’s Water Conservation Specialist. DELIVERABLES The HDR project manager, Daniel March, and technical expert, Michael McMahon will lead the workshop facilitation and develop the theoretical drought scenario to challenge those in attendance to test their ability to follow the DMP through its decision making/initiating process. It is the intent of HDR that this workshop will yield firm, informed decisions regarding the development of the operational and administrative framework that will implement the DMP for the COB. Task 6 > Plan Update Process – A Web-Based Platform No DMP is complete without the means or ability to motivate action. The COB already has a well-established and functional website that utilizes the internet to communicate to its staff and community. HDR proposes to provide the COB with the capability for having a web-based DMP, which will become an online operational and administrative tool for the DMP’s fit and 07 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan function within the community. Web-based plans enable all stakeholders to have instantaneous drought status updates, as well as their individual roles and responsibilities (including the community), and a detailed view of the procedures that they need to follow in order to take action. HDR envisions a web link off of the main page that will include the ability to identify and evaluate current drought conditions (drought monitoring), predict the potential for future drought conditions (drought monitoring), identify and detail mitigation plans and plan progress, initiate response actions, and be open ended so that future plan updates will require only the use of the city’s webmaster. One of the biggest issues with a hard copy plan or document is that updating that document becomes cumbersome and inefficient. A web-based plan can be controlled, managed and updated as often as possible or according to a fixed schedule (recommended) to insure that this public facing plan has all the utility and power to mobilize that it is intended to have. DELIVERABLES HDR’s GIS Analyst/Webmaster, Philippe Willis, will work with the COB webmaster to develop web content and integrate the DMP into the COB website. A hard copy of all the DMP materials will still exist, but the web interface is envisioned as the “working copy” of the plan. Figure 4 > Schedule Task Description NTP Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Project Management  Task 1 - Drought Monitoring and Data Analysis Task 2 - Vulnerability Assessment Task 3 - Mitigating Actions Task 4 - Response Actions Task 5 - Operational and Administrative Framework - A Workshop Task 6 - Plan Update Process - A Web-based Platform Deliverables - Report associated with each task and a final, web-based, interactive DMP Our Team We believe that the way we work can add meaning and value to the world. That ideas inspire positive change. That coloring outside the lines can illuminate fresh perspectives. And that small details yield important realizations. HDR is consistently ranked among the top firms by leading industry publications, including Engineering News-Record and Architectural Record. Our responsive approach builds highly collaborative, cross-company teams that open new doors and solve tough problems for clients. We specialize in engineering, architecture, environmental and construction services. While we are most well-known for adding beauty and structure to communities through high-performance buildings and smart infrastructure, we provide much more than that. We create an unshakable foundation for progress because our multidisciplinary teams also include scientists, economists, builders, analysts and artists. HDR has partnered with clients to shape communities and push the boundaries of what’s possible since 1917. With nearly 10,000 employees, working in 225 locations around the world, we push open the doors to what’s possible each and every day. 08 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan Daniel has more than 26 years of professional experience in the areas of hydrological/ hydraulic analysis, environmental site assessments, stream channel design, stream channel restoration/reconstruction, stream bank stabilization, erosion/flood/sediments control measures, floodplain analysis and mapping, wetland design, water balance, sediment ponds, stormwater conveyance systems, water-supply-system design, wastewater treatment, septic-system design, mine reclamation, and environmental permitting. He has also been involved in projects dealing with the requirements of the Montana Comprehensive Environmental Cleanup and Responsibility Act; the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act; the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act; and remedial investigations/feasibility studies. 50% Availability Daniel March PROJECT MANAGER/ SENIOR WATER PROJECT ENGINEER Ben Fennelly WATER RESOURCES ENGINEER Ben has over 11 years of experience performing a wide range of hydrologic and hydraulic investigations. His studies and designs have embodied hydrologic probabilities involving peak flow and flood volume frequency analyses, including the regional analyses of statistical parameters and coincident flow analyses. His investigations have included urban stormwater management, wetland and stream design, floodplain analyses, flood mitigation design, highway drainage, and construction management. 30% Availability Matthew Peterson WATER RESOURCES ENGINEER Matt has a variety of skills and experience within the water resources field, including hydraulic and hydrologic modeling, design, fieldwork, technical writing, permitting assistance, and construction administration. Project work includes hydrologic model development, flood damage reduction facility design, storm sewer modeling and design, culvert and bridge hydraulic analyses, civil site plan design, and flood protection system recertification. Matt is experienced in working FEMA and the US Army Corps of Engineers. 20% Availability Nate Clements METEOROLOGIST/ SENIOR GIS ANALYST Nate’s experience includes precipitation and flood forecasting while applying hydro-meteorological solutions to Site Specific/ Probable Maximum Precipitation, radar-rainfall reconstructions, and design storms. Nathan also functions as a senior GIS analyst and has experience is in spatial analysis, data management, and overall map design. He has project experience in atmospheric sciences, transportation engineering, water/water resource engineering, and soil contamination analysis for the EPA. 50% Availability Philippe Willis GIS ANALYST Philippe has 7 years of experience in GIS programming using spatial data for web/mobile development for internet content. He has a strong understanding of web components (HTML, CSS, JavaScript) and mobile development iOS (iPhone/ iPad), and server/database. He is has a working knowledge of several programming languages including python, VB.net, C#, JavaScript, Objective-C, and Swift. 60% Availability Michael has 30 years of experience as a dedicated scientist and project manager. The concentration of his body of work has been focused on understanding and communicating the interactions of the Land-Atmosphere nexus. His projects and research include climate change impact analysis, quantification, adaptation and drought management and planning, flood warning, monitoring, response and outreach, EIR/EIS documentation for climate change, and GIS mapping for climate change adaptation strategies. He has an active role in the climate science community as part of the Western States Water Council, Western Governors Association and the Florida Climate Institute, as well as work with the American Water Works Association’s National Climate Assessment Development and Technical Advisory Workgroup. 50% Availability Michael McMahon SENIOR HYDRO-METEOROLOGIST/ CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESILIENCY LEAD 09 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan Flathead Lake BIA Drought Mitigation Plan FLATHEAD LAKE, MT Montana’s Flathead Lake is the largest freshwater lake west of the Mississippi River and a significant bellwether of regional economic and environmental health. Each spring and summer the lake is refreshed with melting snow. Each winter its level recedes. When snow pack is light, runoff is below normal and the lake misses its target level. In drought years competing influences – lower-than-average inflows and downstream flow requirements – further deprive the lake of water making it even more difficult to hit its target level. Low-flow years can also dent Flathead’s earning power, estimated at $300 million a year, and damage Northwestern Montana’s economy. HDR was hired to develop a DMP for Flathead Lake, taking into account the area’s stakeholders. HDR assessed the cause and effect of extreme meteorological and hydrological drought in the basin. In the process, we examined the relationship among precipitation, climatic and physical factors during the peak spring-summer runoff season. HDR hydro-climate based forecasts produce a 75 percent correct forecast from October to December and a 90 percent or better correct forecast from January to April of both drought conditions and flood threat due to runoff. The forecast verified fairly well, with an error margin of less than five percent in a period ending four months before runoff. Phase II of the project further refined the accuracy of proactive drought recognition. These results were combined with parallel HDR efforts in modeling, economic analysis and environmental impact to test and develop DMP options. Paleo-climatological data was analyzed to provide insight on the frequency and severity of drought periods in the past 400 years Project Experience Project Highlights Developed innovative prediction tool based on hydro-climate indices to provide a six-month forecast of low-yield/ drought runoff years Examining centuries- old climate records to predict frequency and description of extreme drought Conducted unique analysis linking climatic indicators and actual seasonal stream flow 10 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan Central Puget Sound Water Forum (CPSWF): Water Supply Resiliency Project CENTRAL PUGET SOUND, WA In order to address the water supply resiliency needs of the CPSWF, HDR developed a holistic, big picture approach for considering long-term resiliency planning. Risks to water supplies from earthquakes, climate change, drought, and water quality are being considered in this ongoing project. Managing resiliency actions, engaging stakeholders and achieving risk reduction that is cost efficient is being accomplished by conducting a life-cycle of activities designed to produce enduring, resilient planning over the long-term. The details of this process include: Discover and Assess Threats are identified and quantified utilizing scientific analysis and engineering models. Risks and vulnerabilities to the system are analyzed so that failure modes and consequences can be determined to aid and inform decision making. Strategize and Plan Once the risks and vulnerabilities have been identified, a long term resiliency plan can be developed that can optimize value while securing a resilient future. Social, economic, and environmental concerns are coordinated to arrive at a balanced solution. Re-imagine and Redesign Lessons learned and strategies developed within the initial steps are focused to render a tailored application for water supply resiliency to climate change. All options are weighed against a triple- bottom line to test and evaluate their efficacy. Respond and Execute System continuity will inevitably be tested by natural hazards or long term risks such as climate change. Disaster response and recovery planning are essential to resiliency. Control and Adapt Once a threat has been encountered, post-event analysis will identify additional controls and adaptation strategies to begin the iterative process of resiliency anew. Project Goal The goal of this phase of the project is to reach the re-imagine and redesign phase of this holistic plan for water supply resiliency. Each risk area has established its own quantification and threat monitoring methodologies, and has begun planning and strategizing mitigation/ adaptation options. A workshop that will integrate these findings among risk team members will be the next objective within this project. 11 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan Figure 5 > Project Experience Matrix Projects Completed on Budget Completed on Time Drought Management Planning Water Resources Planning Water Management Planning Bozeman Storm Water Facilities Plan  Central Puget Sound Water Supply Resiliency Study - Current  Irvine Ranch WD Water Supply Reliability Study - Current  Flathead Lake, MT Drought Mitigation Plan  Montana State University Storm Water Facility Plan  Bozeman Creek and Tributaries Floodplain Restudy  City of Kalispell, MT Water Supply Vulnerability Assessment  Costilla County, CO Drought Mitigation Plan  Fairfax County, VA Flood Response Plan  Central Utah WCD Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply  Colorado River WCD Water Supply Forecasting  References Paul Fleming SEATTLE PUBLIC UTILITIES - CLIMATE RESILIENCY GROUP P: 206.684.7626 E: Paul.Felming@Seatle.gov 700 5th Ave. Seattle, WA 98124 Brian Heaston, PE CITY OF BOZEMAN - ENGINEERING P: 406.582.2280 E: BHeaston@BOZEMAN.net 20 E. Olive St. P.O. Box 1230 Bozeman, MT 59771 Siroky Laurence, PE, CFM MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND CONSERVATION P: 406.444.6816 E: LSiroky@mt.gov 1424 9th Ave. P.O. Box 201601 Helena, MT 59620-1601 Marcie Murnion GALLATIN COUNTY CONSERVATION DISTRICT P: 406.282.4350 E: Marcie@gallatincd.org 120 S. 5th St., Suite B104 P.O. Box 569 Manhattan, MT 59741 12 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan City of Billings/Yellowstone County, West Billings Flood Hazard Study - Phase I Billings, MT Role: Project Manager. Daniel was responsible for all aspects of the project encompassing 20 square miles of residential and farmland west of the city of Billings. Study purpose was to prepare a planning tool by defining flood hazards associated with the 1-percent- annual-chance (“100-year”) flooding in an area dominated with drain and irrigation ditches. Project components included: 1) data collection and construction of 2’countour map using conventional and LiDAR technology; 2) create database for 200+ hydraulic structures (culverts and bridges) recording elevation, materials, location, slope, etc. 3) construct 1D/2D hydrology/hydraulic model using XPSWMM two-dimensional module. Model included development of hydrographs of 20+ sub basins, open channel/closed conduit 1-dimensional modeling (100+ individual culvert/bridges, note that not all culverts included in the hydraulic structure inventory were used in the computer models); 2-dimensional modeling of flows leaving the 1-dimensional portion of the model (20+ square miles). 4) Mapping of existing 50-, and 100- year floodplains. 5) Presentation of project findings to the public. EDUCATION Master of Science, Civil Engineering (Hydraulics), Colorado State University, 1993 Bachelor of Science, Civil Engineering, Montana State University, Bozeman, 1987 REGISTRATIONS Certified Floodplain Manager, United States National Registration Professional Engineer - Civil, Montana, United States, No. 9687 PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) American Water Resources Association (AWRA) Association of Montana Floodplain Managers (AMFM) Association of State Floodplain Managers (ASFPM) INDUSTRY TENURE 26 Years Daniel March, pe, cfm Project Manager/Senior Water Project Engineer Daniel has more than 26 years of professional experience in the areas of hydrological/hydraulic analysis, environmental site assessments, stream channel design, stream channel restoration/reconstruction, stream bank stabilization, erosion/flood/sediments control measures, floodplain analysis and mapping, wetland design, water balance, sediment ponds, stormwater conveyance systems, landfill design and monitoring, hazardous waste investigations, fuel-spill investigations and remediation, water-supply-system design, wastewater treatment, septic-system design, mine reclamation, and environmental permitting. He has also been involved in projects dealing with the requirements of the Montana Comprehensive Environmental Cleanup and Responsibility Act (CECRA); the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA); the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA); and remedial investigations/feasibility studies (RI/FS). Gallatin County Conservation District, 310 Permit Inspections and Technical Adviser Gallatin County, MT Role: Project Engineer. Daniel acted as the Conservation District Board’s technical adviser for proposed stream projects within Gallatin County for 10 years. Work included review of applications for permits under the Montana Natural Streambed and Land Preservation Act including: design review, construction plans review, monthly site inspections, education of applicant/landowner, advise Board concerning potential project modifications and conditions for 310 permits approval. City of Billings/Yellowstone County, West Billings Flood/Ground Water Recharge Mitigation - Phase II Billings, MT Role: Project Manager/Lead Engineer. Daniel conducted an investigation of mitigation options for concerns defined during Phase I, plus concerns associated with reduction in flood irrigation and the resulting drop in local groundwater table. Project components included: 1) Model and map existing 10-, 50-, 100- and 500- year floodplains along with water surface profiles for the main channel. 2) Perform feasibility study for mitigation of flood hazards and ground water recharge due to reduction in flood irrigation; 3) Work with Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) to customize mitigation options; 4) Model flood mitigation options using XPSWMM 2D hydraulic model; 5) Model groundwater recharge options; 6) Present preliminary results through a series of public meetings; 7) Develop and model preferred alternative based on public input and TAC discussions; and 8) Develop 30% design plans for preferred mitigation alternative. The design plans will be used to guide development and to secure funding for final design and construction of the preferred alternative. Relevant Experience 13 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan DANIEL MARCHContinued Clean Water Services, Bethany Creek Enhancement Pilot Project Oregon This pilot project focuses on reducing flow to limit channel degradation, floodplain disconnection, and erosion potential by maximizing stormwater detention within a natural wetland along the Bethany Creek corridor near NW Kaiser Road. The HDR Team is incorporating the use of natural features, landscape, and vegetation along with stormwater structures. The team will also quantify how changes in land use and stormwater runoff might affect the system. Steps implemented here will serve as a model for future efforts. Big Pipestone Ditch Company, Ditch Evaluation Jefferson County, MT Role: Project Technical Advisor. Feasibility study for infrastructure improvements along the Pipestone Ditch for the Pipestone Ditch Company. The purpose of the study was to locate and quantify areas of surface water loss, and assess options for reducing water loss. Several alternatives were evaluated, including: 1) lining portions of the ditch, 2) replacing the open ditch with a gravity-flow pipeline, and 3) combination of a pipeline and utilization of another ditch to convey water to a new holding reservoir. Socio-economic benefits, including complete cost analyses, were evaluated for each proposed alternative. Confidential Client, Rogers Coulee Dam Design, Cascade County, MT Role: Project Manager. Daniel managed the relocation/replacement of a failed earthen dam for a private landowner. Project included: construction of flowing artesian well for water source; relocation of failed dam based on geologic constraints; design, plans and specifications for 20’ high earthen dam including primary and emergency spillways; design of shallow wetland habit for waterfowl nesting; design of deep water bays for fish overwintering; survey of site prior to construction and construction layout; construction oversight. In addition to creating approximately 20 acres of open water/shallow wetlands, the project converted an ephemeral drainage into a perennial stream, revitalizing over two miles of channel. Montana Department of Transportation, Alkali Lake Wetland Mitigation Design Blackfeet Reservation, MT Role: Engineering Manager. Daniel was responsible for all phases of wetland mitigation design at a 175-acre MDT mitigation site on the Blackfeet Indian Reservation in Pondera County, Montana. Tasks included extensive agency coordination; baseline wetland delineation and functional assessment; soil and water sampling; wetland mitigation design; plans, specifications, and estimates (PS&E) plan package production; and environmental documentation. The project also included design of two irrigation diversion structures and two miles of pipeline to facilitate water delivery to the site. The project was on the fast track and under intense scrutiny, and all project deliverable deadlines were met or exceeded. Avista Corp, Graves Creek Channel Restoration Project Sanders County, MT Role: Project Manager/Lead Engineer. Graves Creek is considered as one of the four most important bull trout streams found in the lower Clark Fork River system and also supports a population of westslope cutthroat trout. Bull trout are list as threatened under the Endangered Species Act and westslope cutthroat trout are considered a species of special concern in Montana. Past logging in the upper watershed and in riparian areas of Graves Creek has altered the duration and magnitude of run-off events and has degraded channel and floodplain conditions. These changes have resulted in the loss of fish habitat, especially the quantity and quality of pool habitat. The project stabilized 400 feet of eroding terrace by excavating to the bankfull elevation to create a floodplain surface, constructed three large woody debris jams, re-shaping the channel to an appropriate dimension, pattern and profile and vegetating the constructed floodplain bench. The project created holding water for bull trout staging while waiting for fall rains to raise water levels for upstream passage and spawning. 14 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan Bureau of Indian Affairs, BIA Flathead Drought Mitigation Plan (DMP) Montana Preformed key functions of data analysis and research in support of developing a Drought Mitigation Plan in the Flathead Lake basin of NW Montana/SE British Columbia. Research was centered on the identification of climatic/ ancillary parameters to develop a proactive response to be implemented in the DMP. Results included a detailed examination of precipitation/runoff cycles, runoff timing and intensity and the connection of these results to climate indexes. Results led to the creation of an objective set of guidelines to implement the DMP intended to balance the needs of hydropower (Kerr Dam), recreation, the environment and water supply. Bay-Delta Conservation Plan EIS/EIR-Climate Change California Role: Senior Climate Change Task Leader/ Lead Author. The high-profile Bay-Delta Conservation Plan (BDCP) EIS/EIR addressed all environmental issues that could impact the Bay-Delta region of California (total impacted area ~43,000 sq. miles) as a result of future significant changes in the earth’s climate as they related to the BDCP. This portion of the project, which will eventually result in a $30B tunnel/pipeline and widespread conservation measures in the Bay-Delta region, focused on the impacts of climate change on the project and the impact of the project on climate change. EDUCATION Bachelor of Science, Meteorology, San Jose State University REGISTRATIONS ISI Envision Sustainability Professional PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS American Meteorological Society Institute for Sustainable Infrastructure Association of State Floodplain Managers Florida Climate Institute Association of State Dam Safety Officers American Water Works Association–CC&S TAW Western Governors Association Rockefeller Foundation INDUSTRY TENURE 30 Years Michael McMahon, env sp Senior Water Project Engineer Michael has 30 years of experience as a dedicated scientist and project manager. The concentration of his body of work has been focused on understanding and communicating the interactions of the Land-Atmosphere nexus. His projects and research include climate change impact analysis, quantification, adaptation and drought management and planning, flood warning, monitoring, response and outreach, EIR/EIS documentation for climate change, and GIS mapping for climate change adaptation strategies. He has specific expertise in the communication of risk as it pertains to the social, environmental, and economic aspects of our ecosystems. He has an active role in the climate science community as part of the Western States Water Council, Western Governors Association and the Florida Climate Institute, as well as work with the American Water Works Association’s National Climate Assessment Development and Technical Advisory Workgroup. Central Puget Sound Water Forum, Water Supply Resiliency Program Management Washington Role: Climate Science Lead. This ongoing project to facilitate forum adaptation strategies to water system risks from climate change, water quality, drought, and earthquake is providing the opportunity to interact at all levels of governance for this alliance made up of Seattle Public Utilities, Cascade Water, Tacoma Water and the City of Everett. Strategy sessions have taken place to vet infrastructure solutions to risks identified during the initial meetings of each risk task group. The project is looking at the impact of future climate scenarios on water supply infrastructure planning with the mitigation actions intended to be a component of these decision making outcomes. Irvine Ranch Water District Water Reliability Study California Role: Climate Change/Drought Management Lead. This Water Reliability Study will reanalyze and supplement the District’s 2008 Draft Water Reliability Study, focusing on the District’s ability to maintain a minimum level of service under various emergency scenarios, based on a rigorous and transparent probability of risk analysis. With the potential for emergency conditions to be more severe than historic data could predict, an update to the 2008 Study is warranted. With recent findings in climate change research and the projected reliability of imported water sources, it is prudent that the District reassesses its definition of risk and level of service expectations, and develops improved and robust mitigation strategies. Relevant Experience 15 City of Bozeman | 2015 Drought Management Plan MICHAEL McMAHONContinued Costilla County Drought Mitigation Plan Colorado Role: Senior Hydro-Meteorologist. An assessment of the impacts and threats of natural hazards was performed for Costilla County, Colorado, which is located immediately north of the New Mexico/Colorado state line, in the eastern portion of the San Luis Valley. The results of the analysis indicated that the hazards and impacts associated with drought were identified as one of, if not the most critical natural hazard threat to the County. County of Fairfax, Fairfax Flood Warning and Response System Virgina Role: Project Manager/Senior Hydro- meteorologist. Flood response, monitoring and signalization system design to develop a flood detection network for three politically sensitive basins just to the west of the Washington D.C. Metro area. Project included water depth monitors, rain gages and stream gages. Signalization from this equipment was developed as part of a communication chain that allowed the county, through a 48 page flood response plan that our team developed to efficiently direct emergency response to a flooding event. Directed a 4-hour flood response tabletop exercise that included 20 participants from city/county management, police, fire, federal sector, and health management. Colorado River Water Conservation District, Water Supply Forecasting Colorado Role: Senior Hydro-Meteorologist. HDR worked to understand the needs of CRWCD, including where it was deficient in water supply estimates. HDR developed a water supply forecasting tool that has enabled CRWCD to provide more water for the benefit of recreational interests, endangered fish and irrigators. HDR studied the relationship between temperature anomalies (the difference from average) in the Pacific Ocean, snowpack evaporation, and runoff in developing CRWCDs new forecasting tool. The use of these long-range hydro-climate forecasts provides a risk assessment of future droughts and floods in the specific basins affecting the supply of water from within CRWCDs boundaries. Central Utah Water Conservancy District, Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply Study Utah Role: Climate Science Lead. HDR is performing a detailed evaluation of the impacts of potential climate change on the water supply of the Central Utah Water Conservancy District. The study includes review of climate change predictions for the Central Utah, Colorado River, and Great Basin watershed areas; evaluation of critical water supply factors related to climate; adjustment of water supply factors to account for climate impacts; projection of impacted water supply; and development of recommendations for District actions to protect supplies from risk. California Department of Water Resources, Bay Delta Conservation Plan (BDCP), Environmental Services - Task Order 14 Water Resources California Role: Senior Atmospheric Scientist/ Lead Author/Task Leader. The BDCP is a habitat conservation planning and environmental permitting process with the co-equal objectives to restore habitat for Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta fisheries and provide reliable water supplies to thousands of acres of agriculture and millions of Californians. Responsible for evaluating the impact of climate change either from man- made interaction (greenhouse gas emissions [GHGs]) or natural variability. Analyzed current Global Climate Model output with statistical or dynamic downscaling, and multi-decadal variability due to changes in the global energy budget (hydro-climate indices).Provided climate change quantification utilizing the latest output from Global Climate Models and analyzed cyclical trends in natural climate variability. These quantifications for changes in temperature, precipitation, flooding and drought, snowpack, snowmelt timing, evapotranspiration, and other parameters were used to develop an impact analysis and climate change hydrology for potential changes in climate for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta system. City of Bozeman | Drought Management Plan HDR Engineering, Inc. HDR Engineering, Inc. For more information: Daniel March Project Manager/ Senior Water Project Engineer 682 South Ferguson Ave., Suite 1Bozeman, MT 59718-6491 406.577.5015 hdrinc.com We practice increased use of sustainable materials and reduction of material use. © 2015 HDR, Inc., all rights reserved.