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HomeMy WebLinkAbout15- Element BozemanProposal_Final PROPOSAL TO THE CITY OF BOZEMAN 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN RESPECTFULLY SUBMITTED BY ELEMENT Water Consulting P.O. Box 140785 Denver, CO 80214 303.481.2365 www.elementwaterinc.com September 8, 2015 CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 1 I. UNDERSTANDING AND PROJECT APPROACH Drought is created by a deficiency in water supply over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage. Rarely predictable, droughts often arrive with very little warning and once in a drought, it is never certain when it will end. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts, and wildfires, adding further uncertainty. The City of Bozeman (“COB”) has unique water assets with a finite water supply, inevitably facing dry periods that can last years. The City is growing both in population and in economic opportunity, and it is essential that it ensure there is sufficient water to meet community needs now and into the indefinite future. COB clearly recognizes the importance of planning for uncertainty associated with drought and climate change. Providing a reliable water supply requires preparing for water shortages and the most efficient and cost- effective programs result from planning in advance. Preparing a Drought Management Plan is a critical step toward minimizing the adverse impacts from drought by identifying drought indicators and specifying response actions that should be taken. COB completed an Integrated Water Resources Plan (IWRP) in 2013,1 which helps guide its water management policies and practices. The IWRP found that a future water supply shortage (water balance gap) could occur in the 30 to 50 year planning period under moderate and high growth projections, and it recommends initiating a water conservation program to help address the potential future gap. The IWRP also includes some suggested drought response actions, providing a foundation upon which to build a Drought Management Plan. Conservation, water supply, and drought management planning are the pillars of water resiliency. The COB 2015 Drought Management Plan will specifically address how COB will recognize droughts in the early stages, identify vulnerabilities, and develop mitigation and response actions to reduce potential impacts from future drought. The Plan will also create an operational and administrative framework for implementing the Plan, declaring drought stages, and updating the Plan into the future. The core challenges of this project relate to uncertainty. ELEMENT Water Consulting, teaming with WaterDM (the ELEMENT Team), is eager to assist COB in defining water supply objectives which will guide the long-term water management strategies to prepare for and respond to this uncertainty. Developing strategies for water supply management, customer demand management, and internal utility operations are all necessary in sustaining a drought-resilient system. The ELEMENT Team works with water providers across the United States to evaluate water demands and supplies, prepare water demand management plans, and develop innovative solutions to address uncertainty such as drought. We specialize in the core skills needed to assist COB in developing its first 1 City of Bozeman Integrated Water Resources Plan, 2013. Available at: https://www.bozeman.net/Smarty/media/Public_Works/Water%20Conservation/pdf/IWRP-Bozeman.pdf Source: http://deq.mt.gov/ClimateChange/ NaturalResources/Water/Drought.mcpx CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 2 Drought Management Plan, and positioning COB for future monitoring and actions needed to respond to varying levels of drought into the future. Additional recommendations on the approach are provided below. II. PROPOSED WORK PLAN The fundamental approach of the ELEMENT Team is to:  Work with the COB to establish clear objectives for the Drought Management Plan.  Apply our experience in assessing historic drought and vulnerability to establish drought indicators and a staged response plan with monitoring and on-going assessment.  Provide an implementation plan that leaves COB prepared for drought management. The preliminary scope of work included in the RFP includes a six-step planning and implementation process, which are included as the Plan Development Task below. Recommendations for each planning step, along with a project management and report task, are provided below. PROJECT MANAGEMENT & ADMINISTRATION This task will extend throughout the duration of the project and is critical to its overall success of the project. Close communication, regular project meetings, and rigorous project management are essential for a successful project. We recommend at least three project meetings, including a kickoff meeting, mid-project, and draft plan review. We are also available to assist with stakeholder meetings and council presentations as needed. Regular day-to-day communication will be conducted via telephone, email, and we have had great success in using web conferencing to communicate remotely on technical issues with clients as far as the east coast – allowing different parties to simultaneously view the same chart or table of data. PLAN DEVELOPMENT The Request for Proposal included six elements for the 2015 Drought Management Plan, and a preliminary scope of work that follows these elements. We provide information on our project approach under each task below. Additionally, we recommend that an initial task be added to address the stakeholder process and to develop objectives and principles that will inform the staged drought response actions (Figure 1). A Drought Management Team (DMT) should be formed at the onset, with involvement in preparing the Plan, and will ultimately oversee implementation of the Plan. It will likely include some combination of the city manager, director of public works, finance director, conservation manager, water utility clerk, and communications/ customer services. It is also common for drought planning to include a public stakeholder process, which may be implemented through an advisory committee. COB may have already initiated this process, otherwise we will work with COB to determine what is most appropriate for this project. •Form Drought Management Team •Determine Stakeholder & Public Processes •Define Objectives & Principles DEFINE PLAN OBJECTIVES (recommended) •Assess Historic Drought Impact •Assess Future Vulnerability •Develop Mitigation and Response Strategies •Define Drought Stages, Triggers, & Response Targets PERFORM ASSESSMENT (RFP Tasks 1 -4) •Monitoring Drought Indicators •Drought Declaration, Staged Response, and Enforcement •Revenue Impacts •Monitoring Plan Effectiveness, Review, and Update IMPLEMENTATION (RFP Tasks 1, 5, 6) Figure 1. Recommended Planning Approach. CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 3 Along with forming the DMT, an initial critical step is to define the Plan objectives and principles. Most often, drought management plans prioritize health and safety and essential indoor uses, but each community has a unique set of goals, values, and local economic drivers when it comes to prioritizing supply for outdoor uses, businesses, new construction, etc. COB may have sufficient information from the IWRP to define objectives; the ELEMENT Team will work with COB to prepare a clear set of objectives that will be used in developing the mitigation and response strategies. While Figure 1 provides a slightly modified list and sequence of tasks that we’d like to discuss with COB based on our experience preparing similar plans, for this proposal, we have provided our understanding and approach within the draft task list provided in the RFP. Task 1: Drought Monitoring Throughout the planning process, the ELEMENT Team will work with COB staff to establish a data and information monitoring framework for establishing current drought status and the probability of drought in the near future. This will include identifying metrics and triggers that define the stages of drought in Bozeman. Much of the information needed for this task was compiled and analyzed as part of the 2013 IWRP and it is likely that other data are routinely collected and analyzed under other planning processes. We will review these with COB staff to identify data sources, gaps, and develop methods for ongoing drought- related data collection and analysis. Data management is critical as COB must regularly evaluate water supply and demand conditions both prior to and particularly during a drought to determine if additional response actions are needed. The ELEMENT Team recommends developing a drought-planning database to track critical metrics and data and will coordinate with COB on the development of this tool. Drought conditions change frequently. By tracking the ongoing supply and demand impacts, before and during drought, the City will be able to adapt and adjust the drought response strategy as needed to meet changing conditions on-the- ground. A proactive, data and metrics-focused approach is essential to ensure sufficient water supply and minimize costly reactive drought responses. A variety of indicators and triggers will be considered in developing the drought stages for COB. After reviewing the data and conducting the vulnerability assessment in Task 2, the ELEMENT Team will work with COB staff to establish a basis for identifying drought indicators that are used to identify trigger points, which inform when to move Figure 2. Example Drought Indicator and Response Stages used by Denver Water (Source: 2014 Denver Water Drought Response Plan). CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 4 between stages. It is common to use three to five drought stages. The initial plan included in the IWRP includes 3 Tiers, based upon a combination of demands, the US Drought Monitor declaration, streamflow, and weather forecasts. In predominantly surface water supplied systems that rely on significant regulating storage, reservoir water levels often provide a good indication of drought status. As shown in Figure 2, the reservoir level becomes the threshold for declaring different levels of drought. Given that COB’s mountain stream water supply is supplemented by Middle Creek Reservoir, storage level may become part of the drought indicator for Bozeman. Information gleaned from Task 2 will also be important for developing drought stages, corresponding trigger points, response actions and targets. It is critical that these be clearly defined and documented, as there is often pressure to delay in declaring a higher drought stage.2 The parameters used to determine the trigger points need to be assessed frequently and be made readily available to decision makers in a timely manner. This is further addressed in Task 5 below. Task 2: Vulnerability Assessment How vulnerable is COB to drought? In this task, the ELEMENT Team will review the real risks and potential impacts drought poses to critical City resources. This thorough vulnerability assessment will help guide development of response and mitigation actions. This task includes a review of prior water supply reliability planning efforts and potential drought impacts. The water shortage scenarios prepared for the IWRP will be reviewed and expanded, as needed, to reflect the reliable yield under a repeat of the worst historical drought with an adjustment for future uncertainty and variability associated with climate change. A review of the current COB water supply and the firm yield analyses completed for the IWRP will be used to create a reasonable definition of the amount of acceptable quality water that will likely be available in a typical year and under drought and climate change impacts, as well as the indicators for each condition. A review of historical monthly water use data for each customer class over the past five years or more will be used to establish the normal monthly and seasonal water demands. Some additional analysis of the raw data may be needed, if not previously prepared, such as an investigation of the relationship between outdoor water use for landscaping, irrigated area, and precipitation. The ELEMENT Team regularly prepares similar analyses for water demand and supply planning, and we are experts in analyzing and interpreting this type of information. This step also includes an evaluation of historic drought mitigation measures, response strategies, and their effectiveness, which are often invaluable for future planning. Task 3: Mitigation Actions This task will identify, evaluate, and prioritize the actions needed to develop long-term resiliency to drought. Drought mitigation is a long-term strategy involving actions implemented prior to a drought to avoid and/or reduce potential future drought impacts and it is one of the best courses of action for increasing resiliency. Some strategies serve as both mitigation and response (see Table 1), and the 2 American Water Works Association, 2011. Drought Preparedness and Response, M60 Manual of Water Supply Practices. CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 5 distinction between them depends on the timing and how COB intends to implement the actions.3 The more COB invests in mitigation actions, the less harsh the response actions will be. The future water balance gap should also become smaller through the effectiveness of the mitigation measures. Through the IWRP planning process, it was determined that water conservation should be the cornerstone of the City’s water management program. Conservation strategies that result in an ongoing reduction in water demand can provide long-term drought mitigation benefits and are often the most cost-effective mitigation alternative. The conservation program was intended to focus on improving the efficiency of the distribution system (e.g. water loss control), encouraging non-potable irrigation, and instituting regulatory measures to encourage water- use efficiency in new development. The ELEMENT Team has significant experience in assisting water utilities with water loss audits and in developing programs to improve urban landscaping practices to use water more efficiently. Often justified by the avoided costs, long-term demand reductions are often supported through conservation-oriented water rates and pricing.4 The IWRP concluded that Bozeman should also work to expand its supply by acquiring additional water rights, optimizing the use of existing water rights, expanding storage, and developing a new well field. Such activities should also include drought- and conservation-related customer outreach and a public education and awareness strategy. Fundamentally, drought resiliency can only be obtained through a supply increase, decrease in demands, and reduction of losses. Our team will identify steps in all three areas and perform a cost- benefit analysis to identify the best value for COB.5 This should incorporate drought pricing and a strategy for reduced revenue loss. Task 4: Response Actions Once in a drought, clear and effective response actions must be taken to ensure sufficient water supply is available to meet critical needs. This task will define a clear set of well-understood and readily implementable drought response actions that can be expeditiously put into place. The ELEMENT Team will work with COB staff to identify and screen demand-side and supply-side drought response measures for each drought stage. Screening will include prior experience and results, technical feasibility, projected amount of water supply savings, cost effectiveness, impacts to the community and businesses, public acceptance, emergency response, and any other objectives identified related to water quality 3 Colorado Water Conservation Board, 2010. Municipal Drought Management Plan Guidance Document. 4 Alliance for Water Efficiency, 2014. Considerations for Drought Planning in a Changing World. 5 Water Research Foundation, 2015. Drought Management in a Changing Climate: Using Cost-Benefit Analyses to Assist Drinking Water Utilities, Web Report #4546. Table 1. Examples of Mitigation and Response Strategies. MITIGATION AND REPSONSE STRATEGIES LONG-TERM MITIGATION SHORT-TERM RESPONSE Build new facilities to enhance supplies X Enforce outdoor water use restrictions X Increase use of recycled/reclaimed water X X Improve accuracy of runoff and water supply forecasts X Install water saving fixtures, toilets, and/or appliances X Repair leaks in water distribution system X X Require car washes to install water recycling technology X X Reduce street cleaning X Reduce water distribution system pressure X Withdraw from drought reserves X CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 6 concerns, environmental sensitivity, etc. As shown in Table 2, a “watch” stage often includes voluntary conservation with the next stage moving into more intensive public outreach and mandatory restrictions (that should be supported by the City’s operating rules and municipal code), taking into account the objectives defined initially. These response measures will describe the actions necessary for the City and customers to take to reduce water demand and enhance water supplies during each individual drought stage, and the corresponding response targets that can be used to monitor effectiveness. A public drought education plan will be included such as using press releases to bring drought to the attention of customers. Task 5: Operational and Administrative Framework Before and during a drought, the roles and responsibilities of COB officials, staff, and citizens in taking responsive actions must be clearly established. Advance planning for operational and administrative functions during a drought is a frequently over-looked/under-emphasized aspect of the planning process, which can lead to costly delays in implementation at critical moments. The ELEMENT Team understands the importance of creating a clear and effective operational framework within the COB to enact the provision of the Drought Management Plan and through this task, will prepare a blueprint for internal City action before, during, and after a drought. Based on the experience of water utilities that have been through drought, the establishment of an internal DMT to coordinate the overall response is essential. The DMT begins work before a drought is declared, reviewing detailed information on weather forecast conditions and other drought indicators, supply, operations, customer questions, enforcement and more. The framework developed in this task will identify the key members of the DMT as well as the responsible party for each action necessary to monitor and respond to drought, along with a communications plan which lays out the series of actions to implement from the onset through the recovery from a drought. The City Manager will ultimately be responsible for making recommendations for declaring drought and the corresponding drought stage to the City Council; the DMT helps ensure that COB shares information as quickly as possible and acts on any steps needed to assure smooth operations. An example would be if the City found it needed to educate customers in a service area about a main break repair process, or if the City found unusual operations and usage patterns for the level of restrictions - which might be a tip to strengthen both education and enforcement in that area. Key internal utility operations during a drought include: information sharing; coordination between water resources, conservation, and customer service staff; emergency operations; distribution and collection; water quality; legal; and public relations. Table 2. Example Response Actions Used by Denver Water (Source: 2014 Denver Water Drought Response Plan). Drought Watch Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 (Customer Outreach) (Mandatory Restrictions) (Ban on Lawn Watering) (Rationing) Turf grass Maximum of three days/week of customer’s choice. Maximum of three days/week of customer’s choice. Two days/week per mandatory schedule based on customer class and address. No watering allowed. No watering allowed. New seed and sod Allowed with exemption sign for establishment. Allowed with exemption sign for establishment. Allowed with exemption sign for establishment. No watering allowed. No watering allowed. New plantings Allowed Allowed Allowed Not allowed Not allowed Denver Water sod replacement program Allowed Allowed No installations from June through August.Not allowed Not allowed Element Normal Outdoor watering and irrigation CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 7 Implementation of the drought management plan will require an action plan for: preparing a drought declaration protocol; implementation and enforcement of the staged drought response program; revenue planning; and monitoring of the drought response effort. Ordinances and billing rate structures may need to be updated. Task 6: Plan Update Process A drought is not a static event and the Drought Management Plan should not be a static document but instead must include a process for continual evaluation and improvement. This task will establish a formal processes to monitor, evaluate, and update the Plan. Future updates may include changes to drought indicators, triggers, and stages, as COB gains more experience through monitoring and updating its supply and demand projections. The Bureau of Reclamation projects that climate change could increase temperature by 5 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit during the 21st century, reduce mean annual basin runoff by as much as 9.7%, and increase the trend of moisture falling as rain instead of snow.6 These models are continuously being updated and downscaled to better understand local impacts. Supply and demand projections and drought monitoring will become more sophisticated as refined information regarding climate change impacts becomes available in the upcoming years. FINAL PLAN The information from the Plan Development Task will be used to prepare the 2015 COB Drought Management Plan. The ELEMENT Team will provide a draft plan outline to COB in advance for feedback prior to preparing the Plan. We have budgeted for 2 sets of revisions prior to the public review process, one revision to incorporate public comments, and a final revision to incorporate City Council comments. The ELEMENT Team can assist COB in establishing and completing the required public review process and can be available to attend stakeholder, decision maker, and public meetings in support of the Plan upon request. SCHEDULE AND BUDGET The ELEMENT Team will work diligently to ensure that this project is completed on time and within the negotiated budget, and that the final products fully meet or exceed the expectations of the COB. The ELEMENT Team is available and prepared to begin work on this project immediately upon acceptance of this proposal and execution of an agreeable contract. We recommend a project kickoff meeting within the first week of the project, at which time the goals, objectives, DMT, and other stakeholder processes will be identified. While no dataset is ever complete or perfect, the availability and quality of data will control the critical path of the project schedule. Therefore, we will provide the COB a list of data needs prior to being under contract to facilitate having a productive kickoff meeting. We will quickly identify any data gaps and produce a data completion plan. The ELEMENT Team has successful experience using this approach in numerous projects. We have also had great success working with clients in similar efforts both face-to-face and through web/ teleconferencing. We will identify the most effective communication methods with the COB during the kickoff meeting, and begin setting subtask deadlines to ensure the project stays on task and within budget. 6 Bureau of Reclamation, 2011. Missouri River Basin Report Fact Sheet. CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 8 We estimate this project will take approximately six months to complete, depending on the stakeholder review process, if the COB is able to provide the data required for the Plan within the first couple weeks of October. If work commences in early October, it will be completed no later than March 31, 2016. Table 3 provides a sample schedule. Our proposal meets the requirements set out in the RFP and our team is committed to completing this project for a price of $50,195 (see Table 4). This estimate is based on our current understanding of the project and our proposed approach. We look forward to further discussing this approach with the COB, and potentially refining our scope and cost proposal based upon further input, depending on the stakeholder and public review process. As small businesses that specialize in these exact services, the ELEMENT Water and WaterDM team bring you the expertise and flexibility to complete the project to your satisfaction within the budget. Table 4. Proposed Project Costs. TASK PERSON HOURS TOTAL $ AMOUNT Courtney ($165/hr) Welsh ($130/hr) Mayer ($175/hr) Project Management & Admin. 32 6 10 $7,810 Plan Development Task 1: Drought Monitoring 24 40 2 $9,510 Task 2: Vulnerability Assessment 8 16 12 $5,500 Task 3: Mitigation Actions 6 10 16 $5,090 Task 4: Response Actions 16 20 8 $6,640 Task 5: Operational & Admin Framework 12 8 2 $3,370 Task 6: Plan Update Process 6 12 1 $2,725 Prepare Final Plan 20 40 6 $9,550 TOTAL 124 152 57 $50,195 Table 5. Workload Projection (Staff Hours). ITEM 4th QTR, 2015 1st QTR, 2016 Total 1560 1560 Workload 1092 780 Availability 468 780 As identified in Table 5, we have availability to complete the project and could even complete it within the next few months based on the hours scoped in Table 4, however the planning process will likely require a longer schedule. Task 1: Drought Monitoring Task 2: Vulnerability Assessment Task 3: Mitigation Actions Task 4: Response Actions Task 5: Operational & Admin Framework Task 6: Plan Update Process Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16TASK Plan DevelopmentProject Management & Admin. Prepare Final Plan Draft Plan ReviewFinal Draft ReviewFinal Plan AdoptionTable 3. Proposed Project Schedule. CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 9 COB STAFF INVOLVEMENT A drought plan provides the framework for an ongoing process that will be used by COB staff to implement routine monitoring, make determinations about moving to different drought stages, and provide guidance for engaging stakeholders. It is important that the COB be closely involved in creating the Plan, and empowered to implement the Plan without heavy reliance on consultants. Our objective is to focus interactions with COB staff on critical input and decision points, which we will achieve by being highly organized and prepared in our requests for COB resources through use of data request forms and regular project status reports. The majority of COB staff time will be involved in the project meetings, providing input on the drought triggers and stages, providing feedback on the recommended mitigation and response actions, and reviewing the draft report. It is difficult to project the number of hours until we better understand the utility structure, but we are committed to consolidating requests from staff so that their involvement is as efficient as possible. PRIOR WORK HISTORY Our team members are experts at assessing water supplies, forecasting urban demands, and performing scenario based planning assessments. We are well prepared to develop and incorporate supply and demand forecasts that include impacts from future variability caused by drought and climate change, and to identify and evaluate adaptive strategies. Additional information on our prior work history is included in Section IV below. III. QUALIFICATIONS OF KEY INDIVIDUALS ELEMENT Water Consulting is partnering with WaterDM to provide a uniquely qualified team of technical experts who have successfully provided innovative water conservation/demand management, water supply, and drought planning services to public and private entities for over two decades. Our team is comprised of professionals highly qualified in all of the disciplines needed to prepare COB’s Drought Management Plan. We have worked together on numerous projects and have a proven ability to accomplish challenging tasks effectively. ELEMENT will be the prime consultant, with WaterDM contractually functioning as the sub-consultant to ELEMENT and this relationship will be seamless for the project. Beorn Courtney, P.E. of ELEMENT will be the Project Manager, responsible for directing and coordinating all work on the project as well as providing technical contributions. She is a highly skilled project manager supported by an exceptional team including Matthew Welsh, P.H. of ELEMENT and Peter Mayer, P.E. of WaterDM, both of whom specialize in water supply and demand planning. A brief overview of each team members’ qualifications and capabilities are presented below, with a more detailed description included in the resumes provided at the end of this proposal. Beorn Courtney, P.E. has a broad range of integrated water resources planning experience including supply and demand management, water rights investigations, consumptive use and river basin modeling, and the nexus between water and land use planning. She is skilled at program management, working with stakeholders, and developing strategies to prepare for uncertainty. Source: Municipal Drought Management Plan Guidance Document, CWCB (2010). CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 10 Matthew Welsh, P.H. has surface and ground water resources experience in Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Oregon. He excels at data management, performing water availability evaluations, and providing quality control for complex analyses. Matt will apply these skills to developing the drought indicators, triggers, stages, and response actions. Peter Mayer P.E. is an internationally recognized expert in water demand research and analysis, demand forecasting, and demand management who has worked with utilities across the North America. He will support the project in the areas of water demand management and drought response, benefit-cost analysis, and developing drought mitigation and response actions. Our team has been partnering on water management research and planning projects for over 18 years and Beorn and Peter recently completed the Water Conservation Strategies section of the Colorado Statewide Water Supply Initiative (SWSI) together in 2011. The Team is currently working on an evaluation for the City of Arvada, Colorado that entails projecting future water demand under various build-out conditions and evaluating the yield of the City’s water supplies to meet future demand through a significant drought period with potential for climate change. These projects are described in more detail in Section IV below. The following is a brief overview of other relevant projects completed for a variety of utility sizes, geographical settings, and unique situations such as influences from transient populations (e.g. tourism) and industry like snowmaking. Roaring Fork, Colorado. ELEMENT and WaterDM developed four municipal water efficiency plans for providers and a regional water efficiency plan for the Roaring Fork watershed. This project is the first of its kind, creating regional collaboration to reduce municipal demands and improve resiliency. City of Walsenburg, Colorado. ELEMENT staff have provided services to the City of Walsenburg for over 15 years, including water rights accounting for a system of five reservoirs. Water supply and drought monitoring updates are regularly provided to the City for operational/revenue decisions. Animas-La Plata, Colorado. ELEMENT provides services to the Animas-La Plata Op., Maintenance & Replacement Assoc. which operates of an off-channel reservoir with tribal, state, federal, and local interests. Services include modeling supply conditions and yields under varying future conditions. Hilton Head PSD, South Carolina. ELEMENT and WaterDM prepared a water demand management plan for the Hilton Head Public Service District. Demand management measures focused on reducing potable irrigation demands and improving the efficiency of the distribution system. An economic analysis evaluated the deferred costs and net value of selected efficiency measures. NYC Water Board. ELEMENT and WaterDM are preparing demand management plans for wholesale customers served by the New York City Water Board. A primary objective is to reduce 2019 demands by at least 5% in advance of infrastructure upgrades with potential supply interruptions. Dominion Water and Sanitation District. ELEMENT staff have provided services to Dominion for over 10 years as it creates water supply, wastewater, and stormwater management systems for a 3,400 acre master-planned community. Services include creating water demand management specifications, water budgets, rates and tap fees, and a non-potable water reuse plan. CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 11 IV. REFERENCES AND EXAMPLES OF WORK PRODUCED The following two projects provide examples of work the ELEMENT Team personnel assigned to the COB Drought Management Plan have completed together within the past five years under similar contracts as the COB Drought Management Plan. We strongly encourage you to contact our references for these and any of our other projects, as we find that our strong client working relationships are an important aspect of our successes in providing exceptional technical products. WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND STUDY City of Arvada, Colorado Mr. Jim Sullivan, PE Director of Utilities 720.898.7760 jim-s@arvada.org The ELEMENT and WaterDM team is finalizing an evaluation for the City of Arvada that projects future water demand under various build-out conditions and evaluates the yield of the City’s water supplies to meet future demand through a significant drought period. An additional objective is to evaluate the potential variability in supply and demand conditions in response to climate change. To accomplish the Study objectives, a scenario-based planning and analysis approach was implemented, enabling a range of possible water supply and demand futures to be explored. Colorado’s Draft Water Plan and other planning studies such as the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study encourage a scenario planning approach when investigating uncertainties in future supplies and demands. This process includes identifying the key driving forces, separately analyzing impacts on supplies and demands, then combining scenarios and ultimately preparing strategies to prepare for the range of possible futures. The project included a significant data collection and review effort, a rigorous analysis and assessment of Arvada’s water supply and demands, and a set of recommendations to update Arvada’s water supply and demand planning tools. MUNICIPAL AND INDUSTRIAL CONSERVATION STRATEGIES FOR SWSI Colorado Water Conservation Board Ms. Rebecca Mitchell Ms. Veva Deheza CWCB Section Chief Deputy Director , NOAA/NIDIS (former CWCB Section Chief) 303.866.3441x3217 303.497.3431 rebecca.mitchell@state.co.us veva.deheza@noaa.gov 156615811596161116261641165616711686170117161731174617611776179118061821183618511866188118961911192619411956197119862001Reconstructed Streamflow (AF/yr)Using reconstructed streamflow data from tree-ring models provides a larger window into the past and an opportunity to assess a longer period of hydrologic variability than is available through more recent gaged records. CITY OF BOZEMAN PROPOSAL FOR 2015 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 PAGE 12 Beorn Courtney and Peter Mayer prepared water demand forecasts for the urban sectors across Colorado as part of Colorado’s Statewide Water Supply Initiative (SWSI) 2010, prepared for the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB). Components of these forecasts have been integrated into Colorado’s Draft Water Plan, the Basin Implementation Plan process, and utilized by the Interbasin Compact Committee to broaden the dialog about water. An economic analysis was included, representing the cost for utilities to implement the various municipal and industrial conservation strategies. The team assisted the CWCB in stakeholder outreach and addressing input received through a technical advisory committee, stakeholder, and public review processes. Our team was recently selected as part of the consultant team to prepare the SWSI 2016 update to develop demand and supply forecasts for Colorado that include impacts from future variability caused by drought and climate change, and to identify and evaluate adaptive strategies. Our team has a notable history of working for the CWCB on other water demand, conservation, and drought planning efforts including the Colorado Best Practices Guidebook for Municipal Water Conservation, numerous CWCB-approved water conservation plans, Guidelines for water use reporting, reviewing other states’ drought planning efforts, and providing recommendations for Colorado’s Drought Toolbox. V. NON-DISCRIMINATION AFFIRMATION FORM VI. RESUMES (attached) ELEMENT Water Consulting, Inc. ELEMENT Water Consulting, Inc. Indoor Residential , 33% Indoor Non- Residential, 22% Outdoor Single-Family Residential, 17% Outdoor Multi-Family Residential, 2% Outdoor Non- Residential, 13% Water Loss, 13% Medium Water Saving Strategy Excerpt from SWSI 2010 Report. PAGE 13 PROFILE Beorn is a licensed professional engineer with 19 years of experience in a broad range of water resources planning and policy topics including integrated water resources planning, water conservation and demand management planning, water rights investigations, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses, consumptive use and river basin modeling, environmental permitting, and the nexus between water and land use planning. She is skilled at developing and maintaining client relationships, providing technical services and oversight, engaging stakeholders, and providing program management including large multi-disciplined team coordination. Beorn has served as project manager for a variety of state, municipal, and private clients. She has provided expert witness testimony in water court and briefings to the Colorado legislature regarding innovative water demand management and supply strategies. She is a leader in implementing innovative and practical solutions for water resource challenges as evidenced by her involvement in Colorado’s first rainwater harvesting pilot program and in using supply and demand management strategies to support resilient water systems that are prepared for future uncertainty. REPRESENTATIVE PROJECTS  City of Arvada Water Supply and Demand Analysis (ongoing)  Integrated Water Resources Planning for Dominion Water and Sanitation District (ongoing)  Water Demand Management Planning for Sterling Ranch (ongoing)  Water Rights Engineering for Animas La-Plata Operation, Maintenance & Replacement Association (ongoing)  Water Rights Engineering for City of Walsenburg Water Rights (ongoing)  Municipal Water Efficiency Plans for Aspen, Basalt, Carbondale, and Glenwood Springs (2015)  Roaring Fork Regional Water Efficiency Plan (2015)  Colorado’s Guidelines for Reporting of Water Use and Conservation Data (2012)  2010 Municipal and Industrial Water Conservation Strategies for Colorado’s Statewide Water Supply Initiative (2011)  Colorado’s Guidelines for the Rainwater Harvesting Pilot Project Program (2010)  Recommendations to support the Colorado Water Conservation Board Drought Toolbox (2009) Beorn Courtney, P.E. President Water Resources Engineer ELEMENT Water Consulting www.elementwaterinc.com PUBLICATIONS SWSI 2010 Municipal and Industrial Water Conservation Strategies. Prepared for the Colorado Water Conservation Board, by Aquacraft, Inc. with Headwaters Corporation. Holistic Approach to Sustainable Water Management in Northwest Douglas County. Prepared for the Colorado Water Conservation Board, et al. by Leonard Rice Engineers, Inc. with Meurer and Associates and Ryley Carlock & Applewhite. PROFESSIONAL INVOLVEMENT AWRA Colorado Section Scholarship Committee CO Foundation for Water Education Water Leaders Program CO Water Conservation Board Water Conservation Technical Advisory Group Colorado WaterWise Council EDUCATION & CERTIFICATION Professional Engineer State of Colorado Number 35810 2001 M.S., Water Resources Engineering University of Colorado at Boulder 1996—1997 B.S., Chemical Engineering University of Colorado at Boulder 1991—1995 PAGE 14 PROFILE Mr. Welsh is a certified professional hydrologist with expertise in western water rights, water supply, and water efficiency planning. He has extensive experience with water conservation and efficiency planning, including municipal supply and demand planning under climate change and drought conditions, water efficiency planning with demand management, and the integration of land use and water resources issues for project scales ranging from regional initiatives to smaller land development. Mr. Welsh has extensive experience with surface and ground water rights in Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Oregon, and appreciates the complexities of water issues in Montana from a brief period spent residing in the state. Surface water hydrology expertise includes runoff and availability analyses, historical use evaluations for change of use applications, and quantifying transfer potential. Groundwater expertise includes modeling of lagged depletions from well pumping and aquifer evaluations including groundwater recharge and aquifer storage and recovery projects. REPRESENTATIVE PROJECTS City of Arvada, Colorado Water Supply and Demand Analysis Applying scenario planning to provide water supply and demand projections under a variety of potential future drought and climate conditions. Determining water supply yields under historical drought periods dating back to the 1500s using reconstructed streamflow records. Updating the City’s water supply planning model to reflect droughts of varying duration and intensity and coupling supply and demand forecasts to assess the potential for supply shortages. City of Walsenburg, Colorado Provide a variety of water consulting services as related to the City’s water rights portfolio, including technical support of water rights applications and substitute water supply plans. Ongoing services include historical use analyses for change of use cases, negotiating with objectors, water rights accounting, and monitoring drought and supply conditions. Sterling Ranch/Dominion Water and Sanitation District Provide water efficiency and rainwater harvesting consulting services to assist with the implementation of the integrated water resources plan. Services include developing the water demand management program, builder specifications, outdoor water budgets, and conservation-oriented water rates and tap fees. Provide water supply planning services related to raw water, rainwater harvesting, wastewater, and reuse operations, including cost-benefit analyses of infrastructure options. Town of Castle Rock, Colorado Water and Land Use Planning Worked with private landowners, landscape architects, and Town planning/utilities departments to create new mechanisms for incentivizing residential and commercial demand management within land use plans for new developments. Water efficiency measures and programs supported reduced water dedication requirements and fees for two projects. PUBLICATIONS Causes of Post-Fire Runoff and Erosion: the Roles of Soil Water Repellency, Surface Cover, and Soil Sealing, 2009 (co-author). Soil Science Society of America Journal 73(4): 1393-1407. Sediment Production and Delivery from Forest Roads and Off-Highway Vehicle Trails, 2008. MS Thesis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO. PROFESSIONAL INVOLVEMENT Colorado Ground Water Association Former Director, Secretary, and Membership Chair AWRA, Colorado Section Colorado Water Wise Council EDUCATION & CERTIFICATION Professional Hydrologist American Institute of Hydrology No. 11-H-3014 2011 M.S., Watershed Science Colorado State University, Ft. Collins 2005—2007 Outstanding Graduate Student in Watershed Science Award B.S., Environmental Studies Geology & Business minors University of Oregon, Eugene 1998—2002 Cum Laude & Dept. Honors Matthew Welsh, P.H. Associate Hydrologist ELEMENT Water Consulting www.elementwaterinc.com PAGE 15 PROFILE Peter Mayer, Principal and Founder of WaterDM, is a professional engineer who has dedicated his career to advancing the science of water efficiency and demand management. For more than 20 years Peter’s work has focused on studying urban water use patterns, water demand forecasting, water loss control, evaluating water conservation measures and programs, preparing water conservation plans and conducting water supply and demand scenario analysis. Since 2001 Peter has edited an online water efficiency newsletter for the Alliance for Water Efficiency and AWWA. Peter chaired the subcommittee that prepared the new 3rd edition of AWWA’s M22 Sizing of Water Service Lines and Meters manual. He is a four time winner of “Best Paper” awards from the AWWA Journal and ASCE. In 2013, Peter founded WaterDM – Water Demand Management, a consulting firm focused on working with utilities to develop conservation planning, drought response, water budgets, and information systems designed to educate and inform water utilities and customers alike. WaterDM’s clients include: the New York City Water Board, Hilton Head PSD, the Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the Cities of Greeley, Louisville, Fort Collins, Aspen, Glenwood Springs, Carbondale, and Basalt. SELECTED PROJECTS  NYC Regional Conservation Planning, NYC Water Board, (2014-present)  Hilton Head PSD Water Demand Management Study (2015)  City of Arvada Water Supply and Demand Study (2014 – present)  Roaring Fork Regional Conservation Planning, CWCB, (2014-2015)  Senior Technical Advisor, Web Content Manager, Alliance for Water Efficiency (2007-present)  Residential End Uses of Water Study Update, Water Research Foundation (2010-2015)  Best Practices Guide for Colorado Water Conservation (2010)  Evaluation of California Weather-Based “Smart” Irrigation Controller Programs (2005-2009)  Water Conservation: Customer Behavior and Effective Communications (2006 – 2009)  Water Budgets and Rate Structures – Innovative Management Tools (2006)  National Multiple Family Submetering and Allocation Billing Program Study, (2002-2004)  Commercial and Institutional End Uses of Water, AWWARF (1998-2000) Residential End Uses of Water Study, AWWARF, (1996-1999) Peter Mayer, P.E. Principal WaterDM 1339 Hawthorn Ave. Boulder, CO 80304 720-318-4232 peter.mayer@waterdm.com SELECTED PUBLICATIONS Mayer, P.W. et. al. 2014. Conservation Efforts Limit Rate Increases for Colorado Utility. Journal of the American Water Works Association. April 2014, 106:4. Denver, Colorado. Suero F., P.W. Mayer, and D. Rosenberg. 2012. Estimating and Verifying United States Households’ Potential to Conserve Water. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 138(3), 299–306. Mayer, P.W., et. al. 2010. Improving Urban Irrigation Efficiency By Using Weather-Based “Smart” Controllers. Journal of the American Water Works Association. February 2010. Vol. 102, No. 2. Mayer, P.W. et. al. 2008. Water Budgets and Rate Structures: Innovative Management Tools. Journal of the American Water Works Association. May 2008. Vol. 100, No. 5. Mayer, P.W., et. al. 2006. Third-party Billing of Multifamily Customers Presents New Challenges to Water Providers. Journal AWWA. August 2006, Vol. 98, No. 8. Mayer, P.W., et. al. 1999. Residential End Uses of Water. American Water Works Association Research Foundation, Denver, Colorado. AFFILIATIONS American Water Works Association American Water Resources Assoc. Alliance for Water Efficiency American Society of Civil Engineers EDUCATION Master of Science, 1995, University of Colorado, Boulder. Bachelor of Arts, 1986, Oberlin College.