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Home My WebLink AboutGallatin County Mitigation Plan July 2012 GALLATIN COUNTY HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN July 2012 July 22, 2008 Photo Courtesy Joe Shaw, MSU July 2012 ii Gallatin County Hazard Mitigation Plan Table of Contents 1. ADOPTION DOCUMENTATION ...................................................................................................................................... I 2. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................................... 2-1 3. PLANNING PROCESS ................................................................................................................................................. 3-1 4. RISK ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................................................................... 4-1 HAZARD PROFILES ....................................................................................................................................................... 4-33 AVALANCHE AND LANDSLIDE ............................................................................................................................................ 4-34 AVIATION ACCIDENT ........................................................................................................................................................ 4-44 COMMUNICABLE DISEASE AND BIOTERRORISM ............................................................................................................... 4-50 DAM FAILURE .................................................................................................................................................................. 4-54 DROUGHT ........................................................................................................................................................................ 4-61 EARTHQUAKE .................................................................................................................................................................. 4-66 FLOODING ....................................................................................................................................................................... 4-75 GROUND TRANSPORTATION ACCIDENT .......................................................................................................................... 4-85 HAZARDOUS MATERIALS RELEASE................................................................................................................................... 4-88 RAILROAD ACCIDENT ....................................................................................................................................................... 4-94 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WIND AND TORNADOES ..................................................................................................... 4-100 TERRORISM, CIVIL UNREST, AND VIOLENCE .................................................................................................................... 4-110 UTILITY OUTAGE ............................................................................................................................................................ 4-115 VOLCANO ....................................................................................................................................................................... 4-117 WILDFIRE ....................................................................................................................................................................... 4-122 WINTER STORMS AND EXTENDED COLD ......................................................................................................................... 4-126 5. MITIGATION STRATEGY ............................................................................................................................................ 5-1 APPENDIX A – 2006 STRATEGIES ................................................................................................................................... 6-1 APPENDIX B ................................................................................................................................................................... 7-1 APPENDIX B ................................................................................................................................................................... 8-1 1. Adoption Documentation July 2012 2-1 2. Introduction Gallatin County, the cities of Bozeman, Belgrade, and Three Forks and the town of West Yellowstone, Montana are taking the steps necessary to become disaster resistant communities. Through their initiative, they have developed this plan jointly to meet the requirements of the Interim Final Rule published in the Federal Register on February 26, 2002 at 44 CFR Part 201 as part of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. The initial planning document was funded by Montana Disaster and Emergency Services through a Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency Pre-Disaster Mitigation grant. The plan’s intent is to assist the communities in making financial decisions for mitigation projects and clarify actions that can be taken through additional funding. Hopefully through the planning process, the communities have become more aware of their hazards and will continue to take a proactive approach to disaster prevention. Gallatin County is located in south central Montana as shown in Map 2.1. According to the 2010 US Census data, Gallatin County has a population of 89,513 and an area of 2,631 square miles. Within Gallatin County, 37,280 of the residents live within the city limits of Bozeman covering approximately 13 square miles. The City of Belgrade has a population of 7,389 , The Town of West Yellowstone is 1,271, the Town Of Manhattan, 1,520, and the City of Three Forks at 1,869. Two other significant areas of population density exist in unincorporated areas, Big Sky with a resident population of 2,308 and Four Corners coming in around 3,146. Map 2.1 Gallatin County’s Location Within Montana Gallatin County Location in Northwestern United States 0 50 100 15025 Miles Legend ^_Capital Cities Interstate Highways Rivers Lakes State Boundaries Gallatin County ^_ ^_ ^_^_ ^_ ^_ ^_ ^_ ^_ ^_ Canada Pacific Ocean Montana Idaho Oregon Wyoming Nevada Washington Utah California Nebraska South Dakota Colorado North Dakota Boise Salem Helena Olympia Cheyenne Carson City Salt Lake City -120° -120° -110° -110° 40 ° 50 ° Central Meridian: -961st Std Parallel: 20 2nd Std Parallel: 60Latitude of Origin: 40 Albers Projection Gallatin County July 2012 2-2 Gallatin County offers a wide variety of sights and outdoor activities including hunting, fishing, cross country skiing, swimming in hot springs, horseback riding, and camping trips. Wildlife abounds throughout the county. Bozeman, the county seat, is also known as one of the gateway communities to Yellowstone National Park. Major scenic roadways include U.S. Highway 191 from Belgrade south to West Yellowstone. Interstate 90 runs through Gallatin County from 10 miles east of Bozeman to Three Forks and runs parallel to the tracks that once carried hundreds of passengers on the Northern Pacific Railroad. Of course, the scenic and well traveled roadways also include access to many other less traveled portions of the county. The Gallatin River flows through Gallatin County from the top of the Gallatin Canyon through Belgrade and on to Manhattan and Three Forks where it flows into the headwaters of the Missouri River. Gallatin County is bordered by Meagher County to the north, Park County to the east, Jefferson and Broadwater Counties to the northwest, Madison County to the west and Yellowstone Park to the southeast. The elevation ranges from approximately 4,000 to 10,700 feet. Much of the Yellowstone River basin was inhabited by the Crow Indians until the expedition of Lewis and Clark traveled through in the early 1800’s. In the decades that followed, the region was explored by trappers, gold diggers, and early settlers. Yellowstone National Park became the nation’s first national park in 1872. The Northern Pacific Railroad, completed in the 1880’s, increased the population in Gallatin County from 1880 to 1890. Steady growth has brought the population to what it is today. The climate of Gallatin County varies greatly. Table 2.2 shows the variations between four stations in the county. Figure 2.3 & 2.4 show when the precipitation typically falls during the year. Table 2.2 Weather Statistics from Across Gallatin County1 Montana State University 1892-2010 Belgrade 1941-2010 Trident 1922-2009 West Yellowstone 1924-1996 Minimum Temperature -43 °F -46 °F -55 °F -66 °F Maximum Temperature 105 °F 106 °F 109 °F 97 °F Average # of Days Temperature goes Below Freezing 182 days 200 days 172.2 days 270.7 days Average Annual Precipitation (liquid equivalent) 18.51 inches 14.04 inches 12.53 inches 21.56 inches Lowest Annual Precipitation 10.54 inches 8.65 inches 6.42 inches 15.68 inches Highest Annual Precipitation 25.57 inches 20.04 inches 20.96 inches 29.32 inches Average Annual Snowfall 85.7 inches 47.1 inches 28.5 inches 160.1 inches Highest Annual Snowfall 159.5 inches 87.4 inches 75 inches 276.1 inches 1 Western Regional Climate Center, November 2011 . http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/ July 2012 2-3 Figure 2.3 Average Total Monthly Precipitation for Belgrade Airport Figure 2.4 Average Total Monthly Precipitation for West Yellowstone Gallatin County covers over 2,500 square miles of mountain lands varying in topography and climate from temperate river valleys to snow-capped peaks and open ranch lands. Nearly half of all the land in Gallatin County is under public ownership by the USDA Forest Service, State of Montana, Bureau of Land Management or the National Park Service. Gallatin County is large and diverse, featuring everything from the spectacular scenery of Yellowstone National Park (our first National Park) to lush farmland, and a growing economy of high-tech industries. Skiers, outdoor enthusiasts, wildlife watchers, mothers and fathers, business owners, vacationers, ranchers, retirees, students and many others have grown to love Gallatin County's boundless opportunities. July 2012 2-4 The mountainous terrain of Gallatin County, ranging in elevation from approximately 4,000 feet to 10,700 feet (Wilson Peak), and its proximity to an active volcanic caldera, also presents geologic and terrain related hazards. The mountainous forests can spark large wildfires, and occasionally avalanches and landslides, while the active seismic area to the south makes Gallatin County prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. These hazards are all formidable problems in Gallatin County. Despite its natural beauty, manmade hazards also exist in Gallatin County. The major US interstate, active railways, airports, and fixed facilities put Gallatin County at risk for transportation accidents and hazardous material releases. Dam failure, utility outages, terrorism, civil unrest, violence, communicable disease, bioterrorism, and urban fire all have the potential to affect Gallatin County. Gallatin County, Bozeman, Belgrade, Three Forks, Manhattan and West Yellowstone hope this plan identifies those hazards that most greatly threaten the communities and outlines solutions to mitigate future damages. Additional hazards may exist that are not apparent to the local government or residents, and certainly, hazards can occur in unexpected ways. Although any and all hazards cannot be fully mitigated, this plan will attempt to help the communities understand the hazards better and become more disaster resistant. July 2012 3-1 3. Planning Process The planning process used in developing this Hazard Mitigation Plan attempted to maximize community input and utilize a wide variety of informational resources. The planning process began in January 2001 with an advertised public meeting that was held to kick off the original Project Impact efforts. Over the past several years Project Impact has gone away and the Gallatin County All Hazards All Discipline group (AHAD) has moved forward with this project. Project Impact was a natural starting point for our pre-disaster mitigation efforts. This project created several committees that specifically were designed to address our pre-disaster mitigation needs. The AHAD consists of representatives from emergency management, fire services, medical and health services, law enforcement, media, public individuals, voluntary organizations, and government administration. This already active committee was determined to be an excellent core group because of its broad representation. The incorporated jurisdictions in Gallatin County are represented on the AHAD primarily through their local responder individuals as well as others. The Gallatin Count HAZUS study that is used in this report also had significant involvement from many organizations. A list of individuals that were involved in this report or one of its many accompanying studies as well as documentation of the newspaper notices can be found in Appendix A. Attendance records can be found in Appendix B. The first public meeting on March 14, 2001 was advertised through public notice in the Bozeman Daily Chronicle newspaper and press releases were sent to local radio stations, television stations, print media offices, Chambers of Commerce, and hospitals. Several members attending the first meeting had been contacted by one of these outlets. This first public meeting introduced the attendees to the planning process. The group then identified the primary hazards in the county and participants were surveyed on their individual hazard prioritizations. Sub-committee groups were formed to look at the specific hazards and vulnerabilities and met over the next several months to discuss their particular hazard focus. Many public meetings were held for our Project Impact efforts throughout 2002 and 2003. Attendees identified and prioritized hazards specific to Gallatin County and identified each of the critical facilities. Attendees at these meetings were valuable in identifying critical facilities and hazard experts. Additional meetings were held throughout 2004 and 2005 with the AHAD group for the purposes of identifying critical facilities, reviewing draft sections, and developin g mitigation strategies. Once draft sections were completed, they were distributed over e-mail for review. The full draft of this plan was posted on the DES website to solicit public review and comment. Final public requests soliciting comments on the full draft plan were completed in February 2006. These requests and the location of the final drafts were advertised in the Bozeman Daily Chronicle newspaper as well. Copies of this advertisement can be found in Appendix A. The plan has been annually reviewed in compliance with the Maintenance Section of the document and will continue to be in future years. Since 2006 the Hazard Mitigation Plan has been periodically reviewed by the AHAD group at regularly scheduled meetings. AHAD meetings are publically posted open meetings held at a set time and day each month. For the 5 year revision, two public meetings were also held with stakeholders. Both meetings were advertised as public meetings in the Bozeman Daily Chronicle in accordance with July 2012 3-2 public notice laws 1 month prior to each meeting. Hardcopy invitations for each meeting were sent to interested parties requesting their participation. The first meeting was held on August 18th, 2011 at the Bozeman Public Library. The second meeting was held on January 9th, 2012 at the Bozeman Public Library. A variety of interested parties participated at the two public meetings and some entities provided feedback in written form. At the beginning of the revision process a mitigation plan review website was setup to explain the process and post draft versions as they were developed. Public notice of the revision was also posted on ReadyGallatin.com. The Town of Manhattan has chosen not to participate in the revision of this plan and will no longer be a signatory. July 2012 4-1 4. Risk Assessment This all hazard risk assessment serves as a single source for hazard information in Gallatin County. Other plans may be referenced and remain vital hazard documents, but each hazard has its own profile in this plan. As more data becomes available and disasters occur, the individual hazard profiles can be expanded or new hazards can be added. This summary of hazards identifies and describes the hazards that threaten Gallatin County, including Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan, Three Forks and West Yellowstone, and determines the values at risk from those hazards. The risk assessment is the cornerstone of the mitigation strategy and provides the basis for many of the proposed actions. Hazard Identification Gallatin County is exposed to many hazards. The hazards were identified and profiled through several different means. Hazards were initially identified by participants in the first public meeting. Participants included government, the private sector, and the public. Then, a history of past events was gathered and possible future events were recognized through internet research, available GIS data, archives research, public meetings, subject matter experts, and an examination of existing plans. These hazards were validated and updated at a public meeting on August 18, 2011. Gallatin County Emergency Management worked on updating the statistical data contained herein section 4 between the August 18, 2011 and January 9, 2012 meetings. Tables and charts in which more recent data was available were updated and is reflected in the footnotes. The hazards (in alphabetical order) have been identified as follows in Table 4.1. The level of detail for each hazard is based on the relative risk of each hazard to the communities and is limited by the amount of data available. Table 4.1 Hazards Identified in Gallatin County, Montana Hazard Jurisdiction How Identified Why Identified Avalanche and Landslide Gallatin County State DES Website Historical records from the Avalanche.org database Colorado Avalanche Information Center Montana Hazard/Vulnerability Analysis, 1989 USGS National Landslide Study Montana Department of Transportation District 2 Priorities Public meeting input 2005 HAZUS Study Mountainous terrain exists that may be prone to avalanches and landslides The county has frequent avalanches involving the population Priority landslide areas exist along roadways in the county The county has areas of landslide incidences and susceptibility based on a USGS study 2005 HAZUS Study identified significant areas of landslide risk Aviation Accident Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Research of NTSB database Public meeting input The county has three airports Long history of incidents, some with casualties Second busiest airport in the State located in Gallatin County July 2012 4-2 Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website Public meeting input Local Health Department Large number of livestock areas History of an influenza outbreak The area is highly traveled by tourists Rapid disease spread potential through urban areas Table 4.1 (continued) Hazards Identified in Gallatin County, Montana Hazard Jurisdiction How Identified Why Identified Dam Failure Gallatin All Incorporated Cities and Towns National Inventory of Dams website Dam Emergency Action Plans Several high hazard dams and several significant hazard dams exist in the county Drought Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Montana Drought Advisory Committee website National Drought Mitigation Center website Data from the Western Regional Climate Center State DES website NOAA Paleoclimatology Program website Public meeting input Frequent historical drought events USDA Disaster Declarations Relationship to wildfire danger Impact to agricultural community Impact on natural resources and tourism Earthquake Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology publication and website USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project website University of Utah Seismograph Stations website USGS National Earthquake Information Center website 2005 HAZUS Study History of nearby earthquakes greater than 6.0 magnitude Proximity to the active geological region of Yellowstone National Gallatin 2005 HAZUS scenarios defined a significant hazard Flooding Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns FEMA Flood Insurance Study and Rate Maps Gallatin County DES documents History of flooding Large areas of identified floodplain in developed areas Ground Transportation Accident Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Public meeting input Subject matter expert input Fire department records Heavily traveled Interstate 90 and Highway 191 traverse the county Hazardous Materials Release Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Gallatin County Hazardous Material Plan State of Montana Hazardous Materials Plan Public meeting input Fire department records Fixed facilities exist in the county that house hazardous materials Regular interstate, highway, and railroad traffic transport hazardous materials History of hazardous material releases Railroad Accident Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Federal Railroad Administration database Public meeting input Active railroad exists in the county and passes through Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan and Three Forks Several accidents have occurred in the past Potential exists for a large hazardous July 2012 4-3 materials release from a railroad accident Table 4.1 (continued) Hazards Identified in Gallatin County, Montana Hazard Jurisdiction How Identified Why Identified Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns National Climatic Data Center database National Weather Service website Subject matter experts Severe thunderstorms, some causing damage, have occurred in recent history Terrorism, Civil Unrest, and Violence Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Centers for Disease Control website Gallatin County Emergency Operations Plan Southern Poverty Law Center website Anti-Defamation League website Heightened alert since September 11, 2001 Small scale incidents have occurred in Gallatin County Proximity to Yellowstone National Park and National Forest lands Utility Outage Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Public meeting input Subject matter experts Dependence of population on utility services Volcano Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Yellowstone Volcano Observatory Montana Disaster and Emergency Services Proximity to active volcanic caldera History of ash fall over the county Wildfire Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Gallatin County records DNRC records USFS records Mountainous, forested, and flammable terrain exists throughout the county History of significant wildfires, both forest and grass fires Growth in the wildland/urban interface Winter Storms and Extended Cold Gallatin County All Incorporated Cities and Towns Western Regional Climate Center database Public meeting input History of road closures due to winter conditions Potential for power outages during a cold spell Assets and Community Inventory An important piece of assessing the risk of the communities to the studied hazards is to recognize what assets are more vulnerable to those hazards than others. Identifying the assets in the communities is the first step in assessing the vulnerabilities to those assets. In many cases, once important facilities are identified, they can then be prioritized for mitigation. Examples of community assets include the population, critical facilities, July 2012 4-4 government (publicly owned) facilities, businesses, residences, structures housing vulnerable populations, road and utility infrastructure, natural resources, and the economy. The most important facilities typically protect the continuity of government, the safety of the population, or the economy. Critical Facilities Two different types of critical facilities exist, those that are necessary to maintain essential community services, and those that house vulnerable populations. Those facilities that are considered vital to the community such as law enforcement, fire services, health services, communications, and other government services have been identified as critical facilities. Examples of facilities housing particularly vulnerable populations include elderly housing, schools, and jails. These facilities were identified at public meetings and through additional research and plan documents. The tables that follow specify the critical facilities and locations of vulnerable populations. Time and resource constraints prohibited the collection of all values for all structures. Future development of this plan may allow for a more in-depth analysis. Some of the critical facilities have been GPS mapped by the Gallatin County GIS Department. A full sized map showing the critical facility and vulnerable population locations can be found in the Gallatin County Disaster and Emergency Services Office. Table 4.2 Critical Facilities – Local Government/Law Enforcement Name Address Replacement Value Law & Justice Center 615 S. 16th Bozeman Gallatin County Courthouse 311 West Main Bozeman Bozeman City Hall 121 North Rouse Bozeman Gallatin County Fairgrounds 901 North Black Bozeman Montana State University Police Roy Huffman Building, 7th & Kagy, Bozeman 1492000 Gallatin County Coordination Center 219 East Tamarack Bozeman Gallatin County Emergency Communications Center 1705 Vaquero Parkway Bozeman Belgrade City Hall 91 E. Central Belgrade 1600000 Manhattan City Hall 120 West Main Manhattan 225000 Three Forks City Office 206 Main Three Forks West Yellowstone Police 124 Yellowstone Avenue West Yellowstone July 2012 4-5 Table 4.3 Critical Facilities - Fire and EMS Stations Name Address Replacement Value Bozeman Fire Department Station #1 34 N. Rouse Bozeman 646000 Bozeman Fire Department Station #2 410 S. 19th Bozeman 263000 Bozeman Fire Department Station #3 1705 Vaquero Parkway, Bozeman Amsterdam Volunteer Fire 7170 Church Hill Rd. Amsterdam 150000 Central Valley Fire #1 205 E. Main Belgrade 1000000 Central Valley Fire #2 3650 Springhill Rd. Belgrade 750000 Central Valley Fire #3 275 Ice Center Rd. Bozeman 300000 Central Valley Fire #4 13500 Springhill Rd Belgrade Central Valley Fire #5 9600 Walker Rd Belgrade Bridger Canyon Volunteer Fire 8081 Bridger Canyon Rd. Bozeman Fort Ellis Fire 3725 Bozeman Trail Rd. Bozeman 100000 Gallatin Gateway Fire 320 Webb Street Gallatin Gateway Manhattan Fire 222 E. Main Manhattan Rae Fire Service Area 5400 Gooch Hill Rd Bozeman Sourdough Fire 4541 S. 3rd Bozeman Rae/Sourdough Fire 10200 Cottonwood Rd. Bozeman Springhill Fire Service Area 9600 Walker Rd. Belgrade Three Forks Fire 13 E. Date St. Three Forks 100000 West Yellowstone Fire 400 Yellowstone Ave. West Yellowstone Willow Creek Volunteer Fire 107 Main Willow Creek 90000 Gallatin Canyon Fire Station 910 Big Sky Spur Rd. Big Sky Gallatin Canyon Fire Station #1 2735 Aspen Dr. Big Sky 500000 Reese Creek Fire Station 13695 Springhill Rd. Belgrade 10000 July 2012 4-6 Gallatin River Ranch Fire Equestrian Center Loop Manhattan 130000 Gallatin Field Fire Station 780 Gallatin Field Rd. Belgrade 156000 Clarkston Fire Service Station 12455 Clarkston Rd. Three Forks 100000 July 2012 4-7 Name Address Replacement Value Bridger Canyon Fire Department 8081 Bridger Canyon Rd. Bozeman 250000 Northside Rural Fire 22500 Hebgen Lake Rd. West Yellowstone 80000 Airport Crash Fire Rescue 625 Yellowstone Airport Rd., West Yellowstone July 2012 4-8 Table 4.4 Critical Facilities – Hospitals and Clinics Name Address Replacement Value Bozeman Deaconess Hospital 915 Highland Bozeman Gallatin Community Clinic 214 E. Mendenhall Bozeman 376000 Gallatin County Health Department 12 N. 3rd Bozeman Medical Clinic of Big Sky 68 Beaverhead Drive Big Sky 3000000 Kurtz, Curt MD 8707 Jackrabbit Belgrade 954000 Three Rivers Clinic 16 S. Railway Three Forks Allergy & Asthma Consultants PC 2055 N. 22nd Ave Bozeman 724000 Family Holistic 2581 Butch Cassidy Bozeman 127000 Belgrade Clinic PLLP 33 W. Main Belgrade 1400000 Belgrade Urgent Care 403 W. Main Belgrade 340000 Manhattan Medical Services 207 S. 6th St Manhattan 79000 Nature’s Wisdom 9202 River Road Bozeman 104000 Bridger Mountain Physical Therapy 851 Bridger Drive Bozeman Kreitzburg, Susan 4979 Durston Rd. Bozeman 207000 Bridger Eye Center and Optical 1500 N. 19th Bozeman 828000 Rocky Mountain Natural Health 702 N. 19th Ave. Bozeman 737000 Bozeman Medical Arts Center 300 N. Willson Bozeman 1474000 Gallatin Mental Health Center 301 N. Willson Ave. Bozeman 267000 Gallatin Valley Natural Medicine 317 E. Mendenhall Bozeman 222000 Bozeman Deaconess Outpatient Services 120 N. 19th #D Bozeman 506000 Family Doctors Urgent Care 120 N. 19th Bozeman Family Dermatology Center 2409 W. Main St, Bldg 1 Bozeman 812000 Bozeman Urgent Care 1006 W. Main Bozeman 912000 Alcohol and Drug Services of Gallatin County 502 S. 19th Bozeman 2019000 Rogers Dermatology Clinic 1727 W. College Street Bozeman 289000 Hapcic, Karl MD 2619 W. College Street Bozeman 182000 Cottonwood Clinic 612 E. Main Bozeman 588000 July 2012 4-9 Table 4.4 Critical Facilities – Hospitals and Clinics (cont.) Name Address Replacement Value Highland Park 905-931 Highland Boulevard Bozeman 20400000 Bridger Orthopedic 1450 Ellis Bozeman 7000000 Swingle Health Center MSU Bozeman 3681000 Bozeman MRI 2150 Analysis Dr. Bozeman 558000 Yellowstone Family Medical 11 S. Electric West Yellowstone 500000 Alpine Physicians Health Center 613 W. Lamme Bozeman Bridger Creek Family Health 316 E. Babcock Bozeman Table 4.5 Critical Facilities – Transportation Name Address Replacement Value Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport 850 Gallatin Field Rd. Belgrade Yellowstone Airport 625 Yellowstone Airport Rd. West Yellowstone Pogreba Field 1680 Airport Road Three Forks Montana Rail Link 99 Northern Pacific Ave. Belgrade Greyhound Bus 1025 East Main Bozeman Karst Stage 6 Gallatin Field Rd. Belgrade Greyhound Bus 2 S. Main Three Forks Buffalo Bus Lines Inc 415 Yellowstone West Yellowstone Table 4.6 Critical Facilities – Utility and Infrastructure Services Name Address Replacement Value Northwestern Energy 129 Quinn Creek Rd Bozeman Qwest S. Willson Ave. Bozeman Gallatin County Landfill Logan Bozeman Vehicle Maintenance 1812 North Rouse Bozeman 1400000 Gallatin County Road Dept. 201 W. Tamarack Bozeman Bozeman Waste Water Treatment Plant Springhill Road Bozeman Water Treatment Plant 7022 Sourdough Canyon Road Manhattan Public Works 107 S. 7th Manhattan Three Forks City Shop 308 1 Ave East Three Forks 5000000 July 2012 4-10 Table 4.6 Critical Facilities – Utility and Infrastructure Services (cont.) Name Address Replacement Value West Yellowstone Public Works 314 Yellowstone Ave. West Yellowstone 350000 Belgrade Public Works Belgrade West Yellowstone Public Works 314 Yellowstone Ave. West Yellowstone 350000 Bozeman Lyman Water Treatment Story Mill Road Bozeman Hilltop Water Tank & Communications Site Kenyon Drive Bozeman Sourdough Road Reservoir Sourdough Road Table 4.7 Critical Facilities – State Government Name Address Replacement Value Montana Highway Patrol 91 E. Central #A Belgrade Montana National Guard HQ 350 Airport Road Belgrade Fish, Wildlife & Parks 1400 S. 19th Bozeman Public Health & Human Services 220 West Lamme #2E Bozeman Department of Transportation 907 N. Rouse Bozeman Montana DNRC 2273 Boothill Court Table 4.8 Critical Facilities – Federal Government Name Address Replacement Value US Forest Service 3710 Fallon #C Bozeman US Post Office 209 Grizzly Avenue West Yellowstone US Post Office 32 E. Babcock Bozeman US Post Office 5711 E. Baxter Lane Bozeman US Post Office 9 Frontage Road Three Forks US Post Office 96 N. Weaver Belgrade US Post Office 201 E. Railroad Manhattan US Post Office 4 Rabel Lane Gallatin Gateway July 2012 4-11 Table 4.9 Vulnerable Populations – Assisted Living/Senior Housing Name Address Replacement Value Evergreen Healthcare 321 N. 5th Bozeman 1628000 Bear Creek Respite Care 1002 E. Kagy Bozeman 139000 Birchwood At Hillcrest 1201 Highland Blvd. Bozeman 13777000 Bozeman Adult Day Center 807 N. Tracy Bozeman 1000000 Highgate Senior Living 2219 W. Oak Bozeman 4892000 SpringMeadows 3175 Graf Bozeman Generations Assisted Living 700 Minnesota Belgrade 201000 Open Arms Elder Care 505 Minnesota Belgrade 250000 Our Home Elderly Care 190 Milestone Dr. Belgrade Century Village 100 Hamilton Court Manhattan Pathways Personal Care Home 622 Main Three Forks 124000 Edgewood Vista Adult Day Care 1011 Cardinal Drive Belgrade 578000 Dutch Hearth 991 Pache Rd. Belgrade 146000 Church Hill Retirement Home 6151 Shady Rest Church Hill 1500000 Mercy Manor 5830 Sypes Canyon Rd Bozeman 234000 Gallatin Rest Home 1221 W. Durston Bozeman Mountain View Care Center 205 N. Tracy Bozeman 1939000 Aspen Pointe at Hillcrest 1201 Highland Blvd. Bozeman High Country Care 8659 Haggerty Lane Bozeman 169000 Hamilton House 9430 Haggerty Lane Bozeman 132000 Darlinton Manor 606 N. 5th Avenue Bozeman Legion Villa 1215 W. Durston Bozeman July 2012 4-12 Table 4.10 Vulnerable Populations – Schools Name Address Replacement Value Manhattan Elementary 416 N. Broadway Manhattan Manhattan High School 416 N. Broadway Manhattan Chief Joseph Middle School 309 N. 11th Bozeman 17000000 Emily Dickinson School 2435 Annie Street Bozeman 7000000 Hawthorne School 114 N. Rouse Bozeman 5000000 Hyalite School 3600 W. Babcock Bozeman Irving School 611 S. 8th Bozeman Longfellow School 516 S. Tracy Bozeman Morning Star School 830 Arnold Bozeman Sacajawea Middle School 3525 South 3rd Bozeman 12000000 Whittier School 511 N. 5th Bozeman 5000000 Bozeman High School 205 N. 11th Bozeman 44000000 Willow Creek School Willow Creek Springhill School 602 Springhill Community Rd. Belgrade 121000 Cottonwood School 13233 Cottonwood School Bozeman Three Forks Elementary 212 East Neal Three Forks Three Forks High School 210 East Neal Three Forks 12000000 Pass Creek School 3747 Pass Creek Rd. Belgrade Monforton School 6001 Monforton School Rd. Bozeman Gallatin Gateway School Gallatin Gateway Anderson School 10040 Cottonwood Road Bozeman 23000 LaMotte School 841 Bear Canyon Rd. Bozeman Martha Fox Heck School 308 N. Broadway Belgrade 3000000 Quaw Elementary 91 Southview Avenue Belgrade 4000000 Belgrade Intermediate School 421 Spooner Road Belgrade 4000000 Belgrade Middle School 400 Triple Crown Belgrade 3000000 Belgrade High School 303 North Hoffman Belgrade 20000000 Malmborg School 375 Jackson Creek Rd. Bozeman West Yellowstone Elementary 500 Delacy 4500000 July 2012 4-13 West Yellowstone Table 4.10 Vulnerable Populations – Schools (continued) Name Address Replacement Value West Yellowstone High School 500 Delacy West Yellowstone Ophir School 45465 Gallatin Road Gallatin Gateway Amsterdam School 6360 Camp Creek Road Manhattan 700000 Mount Ellis Academy 3641 Bozeman Trail Road Bozeman Manhattan Christian 8000 Churchill Road Manhattan Headwaters Academy 418 West Garfield Bozeman Heritage Christian 4310 Durston Bozeman Gallatin-Madison Cooperative 21000 Frontage Rd. Belgrade Bozeman Christian School 1935 Nelson Rd. Belgrade 180000 Ridge View Elementary 117 Green Belt Dr. Belgrade 3500000 Willow Creek Public School 407 Main Street Willow Creek 2500000 Great Beginnings Montessori 5860 Springhill Rd. Bozeman Pallas Athenas Montessori 4113 E. Valley Center Rd. Bozeman Sourdough Montessori School 4310 Sourdough Rd. Bozeman 127000 Greenwood Academy 2015 Wheat Drive Bozeman Learning Circle Montessori 3001 W. Villard Bozeman 450000 Learning Circle Montessori 516 W. Cleveland Bozeman Bridger Alternative High School 404 W. Main Bozeman 17000000 Highland Montessori 111 Highland Blvd Bozeman World Family School 120 E. Story Bozeman 80000 Petra Academy 100 Discovery Drive Bozeman Carden School 111 Arrowhead Trail Bozeman Goodfriends Montessori 1572 Cobb Hill Rd Bozeman July 2012 4-14 Table 4.11 Vulnerable Populations – Child Care/Day Care/Preschools Name Address Replacement Value All Children’s Center Belgrade Ark Child Care Center 403 W. Central Belgrade Little Lambs Child Development Center 308 Al Drive Belgrade Building Blocks Academy 301 S. 19th Bozeman Children’s Development Center 804 S. Willson Bozeman The Children’s Place 1705 W. Kagy Bozeman Goodfriends Montessori 1572 Cobb Hill Rd. Bozeman Great Beginnings Montessori 5860 Springhill Rd. Bozeman Greenwood Academy 2015 Wheat Drive Bozeman Head Start 32 S. Tracy Bozeman Highland Montessori Highland Boulevard Bozeman Learning Circle 516 W. Cleveland Bozeman Little People’s Academy 1612 W. Babcock Bozeman Methodist Preschool 121 S. Willson Bozeman Manhattan Christian Preschool 415 W. Beall Bozeman Montana Kids 1105 Campbell Road Bozeman MSU Child Development Center Herrick Hall Bozeman Pallas Athena’s Montessori 4113 E. Valley Center Bozeman Pilgrim Preschool 2118 S. 3rd Bozeman Sourdough Montessori 4310 Sourdough Rd. Bozeman Southwood Child Care 1805 South Tracy Bozeman Sunshine Day Care 401 N. Grand Bozeman Teddy Bear Express 411 Arnold Bozeman Almost Home Child Care 1440 Bobcat Drive Bozeman Little Geysers Child Care 603 Yellowstone Ave West Yellowstone July 2012 4-15 Map 4.13 Gallatin County Critical Facilities and Vulnerable Populations ®q ®q ®q ®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q ®q ®q ®q ®q - 0 8 16 24 324 Miles Legend Wase Water Lift Station Electrical substation Public water well Elder_care Shelter ®q Airport Bridge Bus station Haz_mat Military School Medical_Care Police Station Operations Center Fire Station Oil Pipeline Public water Waste Water Highway_segment Railway_segment July 2012 4-16 Map 4.14 Bozeman Area Critical Facilities and Vulnerable Populations ®q ®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q ®q - 0 0.75 1.5 2.25 30.375 Miles Legend Wase Water Lift Station Electrical substation Public water well Elder_care Shelter ®q Airport / Helipad Bridge Bus station Haz_mat Military School Medical_Care Police Station Operations Center Fire Station Oil Pipeline Public water Waste Water Highway_segment Railway_segment July 2012 4-17 Map 4.15 Belgrade Area Critical Facilities and Vulnerable Populations ®q ®q ®q®q®q ®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q®q ®q ®q ®q - 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80.1 Miles Legend Wase Water Lift Station Electrical substation Public water well Elder_care Shelter ®q Airport / Helipad Bridge Bus station Haz_mat Military School Medical_Care Police Station Operations Center Fire Station Oil Pipeline Public water Waste Water Highway_segment Railway_segment July 2012 4-18 Map 4.16 Manhattan Area Critical Facilities and Vulnerable Populations - 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.40.05 Miles Legend Wase Water Lift Station Electrical substation Public water well Elder_care Shelter ®q Airport / Helipad Bridge Bus station Haz_mat Military School Medical_Care Police Station Operations Center Fire Station Oil Pipeline Public water Waste Water Highway_segment Railway_segment July 2012 4-19 Map 4.17 Three Forks Area Critical Facilities and Vulnerable Populations ®q -0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.40.05 Miles Legend Wase Water Lift Station Electrical substation Public water well Elder_care Shelter ®q Airport / Helipad Bridge Bus station Haz_mat Military School Medical_Care Police Station Operations Center Fire Station Oil Pipeline Public water Waste Water Highway_segment Railway_segment July 2012 4-20 Map 4.18 West Yellowstone Area Critical Facilities and Vulnerable Populations ®q - 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80.1 Miles Legend Wase Water Lift Station Electrical substation Public water well Elder_care Shelter ®q Airport / Helipad Bridge Bus station Haz_mat Military School Medical_Care Police Station Operations Center Fire Station Oil Pipeline Public water Waste Water Highway_segment Railway_segment July 2012 4-21 Buildings In addition to the critical facilities, residences, businesses, and other facilities are vulnerable to hazards. Based on 2010 US Census Data, the population of Gallatin County is 89,513 with 40,448 housing units, including 16,761 in Bozeman, 3,154 in Belgrade, 574 in Manhattan, 758 in Three Forks and 819 in West Yellowstone. The median value of those owner-occupied housing units is $277,300 for Gallatin County. Table 4.19 2006-2010 American Community Survey Data2 Gallatin County Manhattan Belgrade Bozeman Three Forks West Yellowstone Subject Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate H1. HOUSING OCCUPANCY AND TENURE Universe: Total housing units Total housing units 40,448 574 3,154 16,761 758 819 Occupied housing units 35,753 519 2,928 15,423 700 487 Owner-occupied 22,286 364 1,775 6,962 517 247 Renter-occupied 13,467 155 1,153 8,461 183 240 Average household owner-occupied 2.47 2.86 2.49 2.27 2.21 2.24 Average household renter-occupied 2.13 2.3 2.46 1.98 1.97 2.27 Vacant housing units 4,695 55 226 1,338 58 332 For Sale 471 10 0 255 8 0 For Rent 625 9 57 294 0 124 Seasonal, Recreational, or Occasional 2,179 20 44 138 18 101 Total Owner Units 22,757 374 1,775 7,217 525 247 Homeowner vacancy rate 2.1 2.7 0.0 3.5 1.5 0.0 Total Rental Units 14,092 164 1,210 8,755 183 364 Rental vacancy rate 4.4 5.5 4.7 3.4 0.0 34.1 People living in owned homes 55,096 1,040 4,416 15,785 1,143 554 People living in rental homes 28,658 356 2,831 16,767 360 546 2 Missouri Census Data Center, December 2011. http://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acsprofilemenu.html July 2012 4-22 H2. UNITS IN STRUCTURE Universe: Total housing units (including Vacant) Total housing units 40,448 574 3,154 16,761 758 819 Single Family Units 26,787 450 1,916 8,664 496 399 Single Unit, detached 24,493 430 1,758 7,108 493 388 Single Unit, attached 2,294 20 158 1,556 3 11 Duplexes 2,250 38 203 1,467 28 52 3 or 4 units 3,572 23 386 2,451 16 53 5 to 9 units 1,772 0 135 1,415 47 60 10 to 19 units 1,547 9 211 1,061 0 85 20 or more units 1,076 3 24 973 0 72 Mobile home 3,418 51 279 730 162 84 Boat, RV, van, etc. 26 0 0 0 9 14 Mobile Homes Per 1000 HUs 85 89 88 44 214 103 H3. YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT Universe: Total housing units Total housing units 40,448 574 3,154 16,761 758 819 Built 2005 or later 3,446 13 125 2,022 11 11 Built 2000 to 2004 6,747 16 598 2,869 49 61 Built 1990 to 1999 8,629 185 881 2,516 231 258 Built 1980 to 1989 5,362 71 314 1,823 30 141 Built 1970 to 1979 7,165 107 702 2,646 115 144 Built 1960 to 1969 2,192 18 216 1,009 35 43 Built 1950 to 1959 1,739 40 62 1,029 26 71 Built 1940 to 1949 1,072 36 0 613 15 39 Built 1939 or earlier 4,096 88 256 2,234 246 51 Using this census data, the total value of residential structures in Gallatin County can be estimated at $11,216,230,400.00 (40,448 housing units * $277,300/unit)3. Structures in Gallatin County are continuously in the process of being mapped into a Geographic Information System. This dataset was used in vulnerability assessments where useful. As this dataset is completed, potential loss sections can be updated. Another database used to analyze vulnerabilities was the Montana Department of Revenue’s Computer Assisted Mass Appraisal System (CAMA). This database shows the parcels of land and the associated taxable land and building values. Map 4.20 shows the mapped structures in Gallatin County. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s HAZUS- MH loss estimation software gives the building stock in Gallatin County a replacement value of $4,269,000.00. 3 2006-2010 US Census ACS Data. December 2011 July 2012 4-23 Map 4.20 Gallatin County Mapped Structures July 2012 4-24 Infrastructure In terms of infrastructure, very limited data exists outlining the specific infrastructure within the county. Electric transmission and natural gas lines are operated by Northwestern Energy and telephone lines are operated by Qwest. Many cellular telephone towers are present and are owned by various entities. For security purposes, mapping of the electric, communications, and natural gas infrastructure is not provided. The major roadways in Gallatin County and most of the roads and bridges within the incorporated areas as well as a good portion of the outlying areas are paved. Public and community water supplies are common throughout Gallatin County. Table 4.6 in the Critical Facilities section lists the major water systems in the county for the larger communities. Many subdivisions and housing developments additionally have their own systems based on demand and water quality control needs. Several major regional electric transmission lines traverse Gallatin County. The Yellowstone Pipeline, a major pipeline transporting refined petroleum products from Billings, Montana to Spokane, Washington crosses the northern half of the county. Economy The Gallatin County economy is driven by the tourism associated with Yellowstone National Park and outdoor recreation. Table 4.21 shows the 1997 Economic Census data for Gallatin County. Table 4.21 2007 Economic Census Data for Gallatin County, Montana4* Description Number of Establishments Sales, Receipts, or Shipments ($1000) Retail Trade 621 1,791,758 Manufacturing 188 512,617 Accommodation & Food Service 376 325,789 Wholesale trade 127 508,818 Health Care and social assistance 349 329,991 Other services (except public administration) 245 133,352 Professional, scientific, and technical services 641 307,532 Real estate, rental & leasing 361 193,627 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 120 80,325 Administrative, support, waste management and remediation services 255 90,712 Education Services 44 16,205 *Note, not all industries are published at the county level. 4 US Census Bureau, 2007 Economic Census July 2012 4-25 Land Use and Future Development Gallatin County is just one of many counties in Montana experiencing community growth and the regular creation of subdivisions. Gallatin County’s current land use is a wide variety of agricultural, forest, and residential uses. Map 4.22 shows the government land ownership in the county. Map 4.23 shows the general land use. Map 4.22 Public Lands in Gallatin County July 2012 4-26 Map 4.23 Gallatin County Land Cover Growth Policy At the time of this plan’s development, a countywide growth policy was in place and had been adopted in April of 2003. A growth policy is required by Montana law for changes to be made to zoning and development regulations. The growth policies do not have July 2012 4-27 regulatory authority but guide community development regulations and ultimately replace comprehensive plans. The Gallatin County Growth Policy applies to the parts of Gallatin County that are not within the jurisdictions of the City of Bozeman or the City of Belgrade, Town of West Yellowstone, Town Of Manhattan, or the City of Three Forks. The document “outlines mechanisms and processes to provide for the management of future development growth in Gallatin County. Because of increasing demand and rising land values, it is assumed that growth will continue and that land previously used for agriculture or other purposes will continue to be developed. The growth policy provides a framework for guiding how that development occurs.”5 The following are descriptions of the various areas in Gallatin County, as summarized from the growth policy: The Montana Annexation and Planning Statutes allow for the creation of two types of rural zoning: Part 1, or 101 and Part 2, or 201 zoning districts. As of adoption of the Gallatin County Growth Policy, there were twenty 101 zoning districts and two 201 zoning districts in the county, with a number of additional districts in the works. 101 Planning and Zoning Districts Bear Canyon – adopted May 28, 1987 Bozeman Pass – adopted May 16, 2006 Bridger Canyon – adopted October 26, 1971 East Gallatin – adopted June 26, 2006 Four Corners – adopted September 16, 2009 Gallatin Canyon / Big Sky – adopted July 30, 1996 Hebgen Lake – adopted November 1977 Hyalite – adopted March 1988 North Gallatin Canyon – adopted December 16, 2009 Reese Creek – adopted June 21, 2006 River Rock – adopted October 4,1978 South Cottonwood Canyon – adopted June 21, 2005 South Gallatin – adopted February 10, 1994 Springhill – adopted July 20, 1992 Sypes Canyon 1 – adopted April 13, 1979 Sypes Canyon 2 – adopted May 24, 1979 Trail Creek – adopted July 24, 1991 Wheatland Hills – adopted March 1979 Zoning District 1 – adopted June 22, 1970 Zoning District 6 – adopted June 13, 1979 201 Zoning Districts Gallatin County / Bozeman Area (the “donut”) – adopted July 27, 1999 Middle Cottonwood – February 1, 1996 The Gallatin County Planning Board’s jurisdiction presently extends into the un-zoned areas of the county, outside the jurisdictional areas of Belgrade, Bozeman, Manhattan, Three Forks and West Yellowstone, and inside the 201 zoning districts. In the past, the County Commissioners have expressed a preference for 201 zoning to maintain review by 5 Gallatin County Growth Plan, Adopted April 15, 2003. July 2012 4-28 the citizen-led Planning Board, and to prompt review under the Gallatin County Plan or Growth Policy. Review under the Growth Policy is intended to provide continuity with countywide planning efforts, and to avoid effects of exclusionary zoning. This preference for 201 zoning is currently under debate, due to statutory limitations of Part 2 zoning in regulating oil and gas development. Regardless of the outcome, the County recognizes the importance of reviewing proposed zoning districts in a comprehensive fashion, taking into account the effect of such districts on the larger community, and specifically compliance under the Growth Policy. Vision and goals adopted in the Growth Policy show some support for mitigation measures. Section 3.14 “Health and Safety” specifically recognizes the need for mitigation measures to take place. Goal 1 of section 3.14 is to “Protect Human Life and Property from Natural Hazards.” Policies in place are as follows: Gallatin County Growth Policy Section 3.14, Goal 1: Protect Human Life and Property From Natural Hazards, Policies: 1. Encourage development in natural hazard areas to mitigate the potential hazard(s). 2. Encourage development on steep slopes to mitigate potential hazards. a. Prohibit development and road building on slopes greater than 25 percent. b. Support the use of covenants that provide appropriate engineering to mitigate safety concerns of development in areas with potential and demonstrated unstable slopes and soils. c. Encourage development to address emergency services access and driveway standards. 3. Restrict development in flood hazard areas to protect property and life from flooding. Encourage compliance with the Floodplain Regulations and the standards developed by the Department of Health. a. Encourage development to protect neighboring properties and communities from potential flood hazards associated with new development. 4. Discourage development in areas prone to wildland fire to protect property and life from fires. a. Encourage mitigation of fire hazards, including creation of defensible space for each structure, prior to final plat. b. Encourage reduction of fire fuel loads. 5. Encourage development to demonstrate geologically or seismically unstable areas to mitigate potential hazards. Overall, the growth policy supports hazard mitigation through the following goals, objectives, and implementation measures: the retention of agricultural lands through voluntary conservation easements and land preservation programs, measures to ensure development are compatible with public safety needs, and conservation of surface and ground water and quality. Specific to fire, the policy emphasizes the provision of a reasonable level of fire protection for residents and property owners through defensible space, consideration of water supplies and response times, fuels mapping, and other programs. July 2012 4-29 Section 4.6 of the County Growth Policy stresses “Intergovernmental Coordination”. The Growth Policy consists of many interrelated elements. Intergovernmental coordination provides an opportunity to ensure that policies developed for the Growth Policy are coordinated between Gallatin County and Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan, Three Forks and West Yellowstone. Coordination between governments includes both informal and formal strategies. The Growth Policy also stipulates that all Subdivisions must conform to state and local requirements, specifically the “Gallatin County Subdivision Regulations”. When evaluating subdivisions the governing body can deny a subdivision if adverse impacts associated with the development are not appropriately mitigated, including but not limited to: Creation of potential man-made hazards (e.g. development in wildland residential interface fire areas) Demonstration of freedom from natural hazards (e.g. wildfire, flooding, steep slopes) Existing potential man-made hazards (e.g. high pressure gas lines, lack of fire protection, cumulative impacts) Subdivisions are also required to go through an extensive Flood Hazard Evaluation. Specifically it is the purpose of these regulations to: Restrict or prohibit uses which are dangerous to health, safety or property in times of flood, or cause increased flood heights or velocities; Require that uses vulnerable to floods, including public facilities which serve such uses, be provided with flood protection at the time of initial construction; Identify lands unsuitable for certain development purposes because of flood hazards; Minimize the need for rescue and relief efforts associated with flooding and generally undertaken at the expense of the general public; Insure that potential buyers are notified that property is within a 100-year floodplain and subject to the provisions of these regulations; and, Insure that those who occupy 100-year floodplains assure responsibility for their actions. The Gallatin County Growth Policy is accompanied by a Land Use Diagram that shows current land uses, with an eye focused on the future. This diagram is not a zoning map. Instead, it is a visual representation of trends to date, how the county has grown and how we may expect it to keep growing. City of Bozeman 2020 Community Plan The planning area for the Bozeman 2020 Community Plan covers the City of Bozeman, as well as a quarter- to one-mile area around the City. The City of Bozeman is approximately thirteen square miles in size (8,309.8 acres), and the planning area is 38.71 square miles (24,772.3 acres) in size (including the City of Bozeman). Over the past decade, a significant amount of land has been annexed to the City. Because population growth is July 2012 4-30 expected to continue, the annexation of land to the City can also be expected to continue. To ensure that the City grows in a logical and orderly manner, it is important that the Community Plan include land use designations for areas that can reasonably be expected to annex to the City during the next 20 years. These land use designations for areas outside the City of Bozeman are not binding until the land is annexed. The map on the following page is a representation of future land uses. July 2012 4-31 Section 8.3.5 of the Bozeman 2020 Plan relates specifically to floodplains and local programs. The following paragraphs are excerpts from the plan. “Local: At the local level, several programs are in place to protect floodplains, including the following: Bozeman Zoning Ordinance. Chapter 18.44 of the Bozeman Zoning Ordinance regulates the Flood Hazard District. These regulations apply to floodplains as identified in the National Flood Insurance Program study of 1988. Chapter 18.44 adopts State of Montana Regulations as set forth in Chapter 5 of Title 76 of the Montana Code Annotated. According to Chapter 18.44, any activities or uses that require the issuance of a permit, including the expansion or alteration of such uses, shall not be initiated, established, or undertaken until a permit has been issued by the floodplain administrator (the City Engineer). Bozeman Area Subdivision Regulations. Chapter 16.24 of the Bozeman Area Subdivision Regulations describes Flood Hazard Evaluation. This Chapter states: “If any portion of a proposed subdivision is within 2,000 horizontal feet and less than 20 vertical feet of a live stream draining an area of 25 square miles or more, and no official floodway delineation or floodway studies of the stream have been made, the sub divider shall submit survey data to the Water Resources Division, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, to delineate the 100-year floodway frequency.” The following survey data must be submitted to the Water Resources Division: contours, benchmark, cross sections, foot mark, bridges, water surfaces, profiles, and location. Elevation Requirements. Any structures must be constructed a specified elevation above the 100-year floodplain elevation. For example, the City of Bozeman currently requires that all structures be at least two feet above the 100-year floodplain elevation.” The remainder of the chapter 8 looks at geologic and other hazards that the City of Bozeman faces. City of Belgrade The Belgrade Zoning Ordinance was adopted on May 5, 2003, and contains some opportunity for future mitigation measures. It is important to note that the Belgrade Planning Department is closely tied to the County Planning Department and has established the Belgrade City County Planning Board to develop a growth policy and serve in an advisory capacity to the two governing bodies. The Belgrade Subdivision Regulations were adopted by City Ordinance No. 2004-1 and provide opportunity for mitigation measures within section 9 – Environmental Assessment and Section 10 – Flood Hazard Evaluation. The Town of West Yellowstone July 2012 4-32 The Town of West Yellowstone enforces the International Building Code within the town limits. The Building Official also serves on the Planning Board. The Planning Board is composed of community volunteers who make recommendations to the Town Council regarding land use, zoning, subdivisions, variance applications, and conditional use applications. Vulnerability Assessment Methodology The vulnerability assessment methodology used a combination of GIS analysis techniques and best estimates. Some hazards have digital data depicting the degree of risk across the countywide area and some do not. Where possible, the digital data was used. Otherwise, a plausible scenario was created, and based on community values, potential losses were estimated. The Gallatin County GIS department has created a GPS database of the critical facilities. These facilities were identified by the All Hazards All Discipline Group, our version of the Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC). Gallatin County GIS is also in the process of updating a detailed database of the structures in the county. Such a large undertaking takes time, and therefore, the structure layer that is ideal for assessing the vulnerability of community assets is not yet completed. Preliminary structure locations were used, where possible, to show the relationship of structures to hazard areas. Otherwise, the Montana Department of Revenue Computer Assisted Mass Appraisal System (CAMA) system was used to delineate what parcels of land had taxable structures on them. The CAMA data is also limited by the fact that it does not cover all of the county areas, nor does it locate where the structure or structures are on a given parcel. This database, however, does provide structure values for the parcels. Whenever possible, the hazard area was overlaid on the structure/parcel data to determine the number of structures and the structure values that lie within that hazard area. In most cases, the dollar values are multiplied by a damage factor since many events will not result in a complete loss of all structures. Frequently, only parts of the hazard area are affected or structures don’t suffer a complete loss and may have only minor damage. These figures, of course, will only represent estimates but are based on current hazard data. Whenever possible, losses were estimated based on factors listed in the FEMA publication, State and Local Mitigation Planning How-to Guide: Understanding Your Risks. The population impacts were qualitatively assessed based on the percentage of the population estimated to have residences in the hazard area and the general warning time that could be expected. The loss of life and possible injuries are difficult to determine and would be dependent on the time of day, event location, and hazard specific circumstances. The vulnerability of future development was determined through a comparison of the high risk areas for each hazard and the expected growth for those areas. Resources such as the county growth policy, subdivision regulations, and population estimates were used where possible. The impact of future development was also determined based on the ability to mitigate damages during the planning and construction phases of the development and the community provisions in place to do so. July 2012 4-33 Hazard Profiles July 2012 4-34 AVALANCHE and LANDSLIDE Description Avalanches and landslides are similar in nature such that both occur when a material on the surface of the earth cannot be supported any longer and gives way to gravity. In the case of an avalanche, the substance is snow, and for a landslide, the substance is mud, rock, or other geologic material. Both can occur rapidly with little warning. When snow accumulations on a slope cannot be supported any longer, the snow support structure may break and fall creating an avalanche. The subsequent rush of unsupported snow can bury and move things in its path. The majority of avalanches do not cause any damage; occasionally however, people and property may fall in their paths. According to the Montana Disaster and Emergency Services website, “If it is assumed that an accumulation of snow is possible anywhere in Montana, then we can evaluate the potential for hazard solely on the basis of terrain characteristics. The most important factor by far is terrain steepness. Wet snow avalanches can start on slopes of 20 degrees or less, but the optimum slope angle for avalanche starting zones is 25-45 degrees. Slopes steeper than 45 degrees will not normally retain enough snow to generate large avalanches, but they may produce small sluffs that trigger major avalanches on the slopes below. Therefore, all slopes of 20 degrees and greater should be considered as potential avalanche sites.”6 In the case of landslides, some move slowly and cause damage gradually, whereas others move so rapidly that they can destroy property and take lives suddenly and unexpectedly. Gravity is the force driving landslide movement. Factors that allow the force of gravity to overcome the resistance of earth material to landslide movement include: saturation by water, steepening of slopes by erosion or construction, alternate freezing and thawing, earthquake shaking, and volcanic eruptions. Landslides are typically associated with periods of heavy rainfall or rapid snow melt and tend to worsen the effects of flooding that often accompanies these events. In areas burned by forest and brush fires, a lower threshold of precipitation may initiate landslides.7 6 Montana Disaster and Emergency Services, http://dma.mt.gov/des/Avalanche.asp#Avalanche 7 Federal Emergency Management Agency, www.fema.gov. July 2012 4-35 February 16, 2010. Saddle Peak Avalanche.8 History The history of avalanches in Gallatin County is much more pronounced than that of landslides. Both, however, have occurred. Table 4.24 outlines the impacts of avalanches since 1995. Note that avalanches are a normal occurrence in Gallatin County and typically do not cause significant damages. The only concerns here are when people or property lie in the path. Table 4.24 Gallatin County Avalanches Impacting the Population 1998-20039 DATE LOCATION DETAILS 4/10/2011 Lionhead 1 skier triggered, caught, not buried 3/17/2011 Bridger 1 skier triggered, caught, not buried 2/14/2011 Bridger 1 skier triggered, caught, killed 2/6/2011 Bridger 2 skier triggered, 1 caught, partially buried and injured 1/6/2011 N. Madison 1 skier triggered, caught, not buried 4/14/2010 N. Madison 2 snowmobilers caught, 1 partially, 1 full buried, 1 killed 2/15/2010 Lionhead 1 snomowbile triggered, full buried recovered 1/6/2010 Bridger Range 1 skier triggered slide, 1 partially buried, no injuries 1/3/2010 N. Gallatin 1 skier triggeredm, caught buried 12/13/2009 Big Sky Lenin 2 skiers caught, 1 partially buried 12/12/2009 N. Gallatin 2 skier triggered, 2 caught, 1 partially buried 12/10/2009 N. Gallatin 2 climbers, caught, not buried 12/10/2009 N. Gallatin 1 climber, caught, partially buried, killed 11/12/2009 Bridgers 1 skier triggered, caught, buried to chest 03/23/09 N. Gallatin Range 1 skier triggered, caught, injured 03/18/09 Bridger Range 1 skier triggered, caught, not buried, injured 03/07/09 Bridger Range 2 skier triggered, caught, partially buried 03/05/09 N. Madison Range 1 snowmobiler and cornice triggered, caught, partially buried 02/11/09 Two Top 1 snowmobiler triggered, caught, partially buried, injured 01/16/09 S. Madison Range 1 snowmobiler triggered 01/11/09 N. Gallatin Range 2 skiers triggered, caught, partially buried 8 www.mtavalanche.com. Photo Courtesy of Brad Coffey. 9 Information compiled from the Avalanche.org database, www.avalanche.org, includes information documented by the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center, the Bozeman Daily Chronicle, and the Associated Press. July 2012 4-36 01/10/09 N. Madison Range 1 snowmobile triggered, 2 caught, 1 partial burial, 1 full burial 12/30/08 N. Madison Range 1 skier caught 12/30/08 Pilot Creek 1 skier triggered slide 12/26/08 N. Madison Range 1 skiers caught, not buried, not injured 02/15/08 N. Madison Range 5 snowmobiler triggered, 5 caught and partially buried 01/29/08 N. Madison Range 2 snowboarder triggered, caught, not buried 01/27/08 N. Gallatin Range 1 dog triggered, caught, uninjured 01/27/08 S. Gallatin Range 1 skier triggered, caught, partially buried 01/20/08 Beehive Basin 1 skier triggered, caught, buried, killed 01/17/08 N. Madison Range 1 skier triggered, caught, buried, recovered 01/12/08 N. Gallatin Range 1 snowmobiler triggered, caught, buried, recovered 01/09/08 S. Madison Range 1 snowmobiler triggered, caught, not buried 01/06/08 S. Madison Range 1 skier triggered, caught, not buried 01/05/08 Bangtail Range 1 snowmobiler triggered, caught, partially buried 01/02/08 Lionhead 1 snowmobiler triggered, caught, partially buried 12/22/07 Saddle Peak 1 skier triggered, not caught 12/22/07 N. Madison Range 1 skier triggered, caught, partially buried 04/02/07 N. Gallatin Range 1 skier triggered, caught, not buried 03/03/07 N. Madison Range 1 skier triggered, caught, buried and killed 03/01/07 Bridger Range 2 skier triggered, 1 caught, not buried 02/18/07 Bridgers 1 skier triggered, caught, not buried 02/13/07 Bridger Range 2 snowboarders triggered, caught, not buried 02/10/07 Bridger Range 1 skier caught 01/02/07 Mt Jefferson 2 snowmobilers triggered, caught, 1 fully buried and killed 12/28/06 S. Madison Range 2 snowmobilers caught, 1 partially buried, 1 fully buried and killed 12/25/06 N. Madison Range 1 skier triggered, caught, partially buried 12/16/06 Big Sky 1 in-area skier triggered, caught, partially buried 10/22/06 Bridger Bowl 1 skier triggered, caught, not buried 03/27/06 Bridger Range 1 skier triggered, caught, uninjured 03/05/06 Two Top 1 snowmobiler triggered, caught, uninjured 02/13/06 Yellow Mt. 1 skier triggered, caught, uninjured 02/11/06 Big Sky 1 skier triggered, caught, uninjured 01/01/06 Lionhead 1 snowmobiler triggered, caught, uninjured 12/18/05 Madison Range 1 skier triggered, caught, uninjured 11/08/05 Moonlight Basin 1 skier + 1 dog caught; skier buried, uninjured 10/30/04 Sphinx 2 climbers triggered, caught, partially buried and killed 02/16/04 Saddle Peak 1 skier triggered, caught, not injured 12/15/03 Madison Range 1 skier triggered, caught, fully buried, not injured 11/22/03 Beehive Basin 1 snowboard triggerred, caught, partially buried 03/27/03 Bridgers 1 skier caught, fully buried 02/14/03 Bacon Rind 2 skiers caught 02/09/03 Taylor Fork 2 snowmobiler caught 01/28/03 Bridgers 5 skier triggered, 3 caught 01/27/03 Bridgers 2 skier triggered, 1 caught 01/07/03 Big Sky 1 patroller caught, not buried 12/22/02 Bridgers 1 skier caught, partially buried 03/24/02 Lionhead area 1 snowmobiler triggerred, caught, buried and killed 03/22/02 Lionhead area 1 snowmobiler triggerred, caught, partially buried 03/17/02 Madison Range 1 skier triggerred, caught 01/31/02 Lionhead area 1 snowmobiler triggerred, caught, buried, uninjured 01/05/02 Bridger Range 1 skier triggerred, caught July 2012 4-37 12/30/01 Bridger Range 1 skier triggerred, caught 12/16/01 Madison Range 1 skier triggerred, caught 12/16/01 Lionhead area 1 skier triggerred, caught 12/02/01 Madison Range 1 skier triggerred, caught 10/13/01 Bridger Range 1 skier triggerred, caught 4/4/01 Flathead Pass 1 skier caught, buried, and killed 4/4/01 Truman Gulch 2 skiers caught, carried, partially buried. I injured 2/24/01 Absorka/Beartooth Snowmobiler burial, located by transceiver 2/4/01 Hyalite 1 snowboarder caught and buried in roadside terrain trap 12/25/00 Lionhead 1 snowmobiler caught buried and rescued 11/26/99 Lone Mountain 2 Skiers caught, 1 buried and killed 1/23/99 MacAtee Basin, south of Big Sky Snowmobiler survives avalanche 11/11/97 Bridger Bowl, MT 1 skier caught, partially buried, and injured 3/9/96 West Yellowstone, MT 1 snowmobiler buried and killed 2/25/96 West Yellowstone, MT 1 snowmobiler buried and killed 10 10 Colorado Avalanche Information Center, avalanche.state.co.us July 2012 4-38 Since 1995, 11 people have been killed or injured by avalanches in Gallatin County with numerous additional injuries and close calls. Montana’s rate in the previous graph is increasing due to heavier use of snowmobiles in the backcountry. Significant landslides have not been documented in Gallatin County, however, small ones are generally known to have occurred in numerous locations. Despite the numerous relatively minor incidents in Gallatin County from avalanches and landslides, none were declared state or federal disasters. Probability The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has compiled statistics on a statewide basis on avalanche fatalities. Montana ranks fifth in the nation with over 50 fatalities from 1950/51 to 2000/01. The top three activities being undertaken at the time of an avalanche were climbing, backcountry skiing, and snowmobiling. Ratings have not been compiled for counties within Montana, however, the historical databases show that Gallatin County is one of the more vulnerable counties in the state from avalanche, particularly in the West Yellowstone and Gallatin Canyon areas. The history of significant incidents noted in Table 4.24 demonstrates that the population is most vulnerable to avalanches during the months of December, January, February, and March. Landslides have an even lower probability of creating a disaster based on a very limited history of events. Should landslides occur in this area, they typically do not affect life or property. The probability of a damaging landslide could greatly increase if development were to occur in landslide prone areas. Wildfire burn areas also greatl y increase the probability of a landslide triggered by precipitation. The probability of an avalanche or landslide to cause enough damage for a county, state, or federal disaster is considered low based on the historical record. Mapping A map titled Vulnerability to Avalanches in Montana published in the Montana Hazard/Vulnerability Analysis from 1987 shows the very general areas within Montana that are considered vulnerable to avalanches. Map 4.25 shows an electronically scanned version of the legend and map zoomed to Gallatin County. Although somewhat difficult to read, the map shows the southern half and northeast corner of Gallatin County to be at greatest risk for avalanches. These areas coincide with the mountainous regions of the county. Map 4.25 Gallatin County Avalanche Vulnerability11 July 2012 4-39 Landslides, due to their site specific nature, are another hazard difficult to map. A national map has been produced by the US Geological Survey as part of a study. This study, USGS Open-File Report 97-289 by Jonathan W. Godt, looked at incidence and susceptibility of landslides on a nationwide basis. Therefore, the areas identified are general and not exact on the county scale. The Gallatin County HAZUS project undertaken in 2005 looked at landslide susceptibility. Two data layers made up of information from the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology and another layer from FEMA were combined to make the Gallatin County Landslide Hazard Area Map depicted in map 4.26. July 2012 4-40 Map 4.26 Gallatin County Landslide Hazard Areas July 2012 4-41 The Montana Department of Transportation, District 2 has mapped the priority areas for landslide mitigation. The determination of priorities was based on an inventory of landslides and their proximity to state highways. Gallatin County, the southeastern section of Map 4.27, has several Priority 2 and 3 areas. Map 4.27 Montana Department of Transportation, District 2 Landslide Priority Areas Associated Hazards and Other Factors Avalanches often occur independently from other hazards but can occasionally be linked to significant winter storms and high wind events. During years of heavy snowfall and increased incidence of avalanches, a rapid snowmelt can then lead to flooding. Landslides can be linked to several different hazards. Following a wildfire, the burnt area can often be very prone to landslides, particularly when combined with heavy rainfall. In fact, given enough rainfall, landslides and the associated mudflows can occur almost anywhere and are typically partnered with flash flooding off of mountainous areas. The massive Hebgen Lake landslide in nearby Madison County was triggered by a strong earthquake. This potential also exists in Gallatin County. July 2012 4-42 Vulnerability Critical Facilities Critical facilities in Gallatin County historically have not suffered losses or been threatened by avalanches or landslides. Not that a critical facility could not be impacted, but the probability is very low. Most facilities are located outside of steep slope areas. The primary exceptions are roadways and communications equipment. Some sections of state highways and county roads are known to have possible landslide hazards, as shown in Map 4.27. Typically, communications equipment, such as radio towers, are located on mountain peaks and are somewhat protected, but not immune to, avalanches and landslides due to their locations near the peaks. Potential losses to roadways and communications equipment could easily total into the hundreds of thousands of dollars, but the probability of such an event is considered low. Potential Losses Like critical facilities, potential losses to other structures are considered low. Most avalanche and landslide prone areas are located on federal or state lands and do not have significant numbers of structures. Therefore, the potential loss to structures is low. The potential for economic losses is more likely yet probably not significant. An avalanche or landslide could destroy an area designated for logging, however, such an event may also create fallen timber for harvesting. With tourism being a very large part of the regional economy, severe avalanche seasons could have an impact on the snowmobiling economy. Although the potential for economic losses exists, the potential is not considered significant. Potential Population Impacts Based on records since 1996, an average of .93 people are killed by avalanches in Gallatin County each year12. This figure shows that the greatest losses from avalanches are to human life. Fortunately, with advisories being issued by centers, such as the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center, some warning does exist as to the potential for avalanches. Training also educates outdoor enthusiasts on the signs of avalanche danger. The potential for population impacts from avalanches, especially when compared to other hazards, is still considered low. In relation to landslides, the National Weather Service issues flash flood warnings during periods of rainfall or snow melt that have a high likelihood of causing flash flooding. Such flooding and rapid runoff may trigger land and mud slides. Without any documentation supporting any deaths or injuries from landslides in Gallatin County, this potential is also considered low. Impact of Future Development Fortunately, most of the avalanche and landslide prone areas in Gallatin County are within publicly owned lands. Should development on private land coincide with avalanche or 12 Based on data from Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. December 2011. July 2012 4-43 landslide areas, however, the impact of future development could have negative consequences on life and property. Therefore, development should be restricted or require geotechnical studies on slopes greater than 20%. Data Limitations The data on avalanche and landslide hazards in Gallatin County is quite limited. These hazards are not expected to seriously threaten the community, and therefore, have not been studied thoroughly. The data that does is exist is either on a national, not county-wide, scale or is old and somewhat obsolete. Avalanches and landslides are such site specific events that pinpointing specific vulnerable areas is quite difficult and costly. Therefore, this hazard profile is general in nature and could be more specific if better data is ever compiled. Regardless, individual property owners are encouraged to consider these hazards specific to their site. July 2012 4-44 AVIATION ACCIDENT Description Aviation accidents can occur for a multitude of reasons from mechanical failure to poor weather conditions to intentional causes. Accidents can vary from small single engine aircraft to large commercial jets. The location of the accident, such as a remote area versus a populated location, also plays an important role in the amount of destruction caused. Gallatin County has one large and two smaller airports – Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport, located in Belgrade, is the largest of the three and the second busiest airport in the State of Montana. Progreba Field, is located in Three Forks and primarily serves smaller single engine aircraft. West Yellowstone Airport is located near West Yellowstone and is primarily used in the summer months for tourism to Yellowstone Park and as a base station for fixed and rotor wing wildland firefighting aircraft. Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport is a full service commercial airport serving the needs of travelers in the region. Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport also has a significant cargo capacity and private ancillary services. In 2010 the airport served 72,787 tower operations and handled 2 million pounds of cargo. There are 279 aircraft based at Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport with 159 hanger doors. In 2010 there were 396,000 passenger boardings with five major airlines averaging 25 commercial flights each day. The longest of the paved runways is 9000 feet long and there are two other runways, one paved and one turf. Large passenger aircraft serving these airports and passing over the region often fly over Gallatin County. Small aircraft accidents may be relatively minor in nature involving none or few casualties, whereas a large commercial aircraft could create a mass casualty incident requiring outside assistance. In addition to established airports and fixed wing traffic, helicopters and other aircraft can be found in most other areas of the county. An active wildfire season increases spotting and suppression activities by air and heliports may be set up in many locations. Other locations, such as Bozeman Deaconess Hospital, have frequent helicopter traffic conducting medical transports. There are three private rotor wing services in the county and several Gallatin County residents have their own personal aircraft operating to and from their property. 2007 Gallatin Field Tri Annual Full Scale Exercise.13 13 Photo courtesy of unknown photographer. July 2012 4-45 History Table 4.28 briefly summarizes the accident reports filed by the National Transportation Safety Board as occurring in Gallatin County and near the 5 incorporated cities and towns. Table 4.28 NTSB Incident Report Summary for Gallatin County, Montana14 Event Date Location Make / Model Reg. Number Event Severity 10/3/09 BOZEMAN, MT Piper PA-20 N1544A Nonfatal 11/26/08 BOZEMAN, MT Boeing 777 N862DA Incident 6/24/07 BOZEMAN, MT Cessna 170A N1316D Nonfatal 6/24/2004 BOZEMAN, MT Cessna 185F N4585F Nonfatal 3/31/2004 BOZEMAN, MT Cessna 305A N5210G Nonfatal 11/5/2002 BOZEMAN, MT Riddell (Lancair) IV-P N41RJ Fatal(1) 6/26/2001 BOZEMAN, MT Piper PA-38-112 N9341T Nonfatal 6/26/2001 BOZEMAN, MT Cessna 172M N80830 Nonfatal 3/4/2001 BOZEMAN, MT Avia Stroitel AC-5m N1635M Nonfatal 2/8/2001 BOZEMAN, MT Piper PA-12 N7940H Nonfatal 3/4/2000 BOZEMAN, MT Cessna 180H N9907V Nonfatal 10/20/1999 BOZEMAN, MT Piper PA-24-250 N8078P Nonfatal 2/15/1998 BOZEMAN, MT Piper PA-17 N4835H Nonfatal 12/7/1997 BOZEMAN, MT Pitts S-2B N693SB Fatal(3) 12/7/1997 BOZEMAN, MT Cessna P206A N2664X Fatal(3) 8/25/1996 BOZEMAN, MT Forney F-1 N7551C Nonfatal 11/25/1995 BOZEMAN, MT Beech C24R N3729T Fatal(2) 3/18/1995 BOZEMAN, MT BERGFALKE II-55 N5924 Nonfatal 9/10/1994 BOZEMAN, MT I.C.A. Brasov IS-28B2 N28KG Nonfatal 6/25/1993 BOZEMAN, MT CESSNA 180 N8047Z Nonfatal 12/9/1990 BOZEMAN, MT BEECH 3NM N9159B Nonfatal 5/3/1989 BOZEMAN, MT PIPER PA-18-150 N9858D Nonfatal 8/13/1987 BOZEMAN, MT GREAT LAKES 2T-1A N313Y Fatal(1) 11/3/1986 BOZEMAN, MT CESSNA 172M N3263B Fatal(3) 3/14/1986 BOZEMAN, MT CESSNA A185F N4984Q Nonfatal 12/6/1985 BOZEMAN, MT HELIO H-391B N4101D Nonfatal 7/22/1983 BOZEMAN, MT CESSNA T188C N2834J Nonfatal 1/11/1982 BOZEMAN, MT PIPER PA-28-140 N7273J Nonfatal 10/13/1978 BOZEMAN, MT PIPER PA-18S N302T Fatal(2) 2/17/1977 BOZEMAN, MT CESSNA 172 N12752 Nonfatal 10/5/1975 BOZEMAN, MT AERONCA 7AC N84885 Nonfatal 10/2/1975 BOZEMAN, MT MAULE M5210C N51598 Nonfatal 10/15/1973 BOZEMAN, MT CESSNA 182 N5673B Nonfatal 11/22/1967 BOZEMAN, MT AERO COMDR 520 N2625B Nonfatal 5/15/1967 BOZEMAN, MT CESSNA 182J N3598F Fatal(5) 4/22/1965 BOZEMAN, MT BEECHCRAFT C-35 N20420 Nonfatal 14 Information derived from the National Transportation Safety Board aviation accident database: http://www.ntsb.gov/ July 2012 4-46 Table 4.28b NTSB Incident Report Summary for Belgrade, Montana Event Date Location Make / Model Reg. Number Event Severity 8/30/10 BELGRADE, MT Cessna 182C N8957T Fatal(1) 2/6/07 BELGRADE, MT Beechcraft 200 N45MF Fatal(3) 8/2/06 BELGRADE, MT Cessna 180A N7955V Nonfatal 4/14/06 BELGRADE, MT Cessna 425 N701QR Fatal(1) 11/29/2005 BELGRADE, MT Cessna 425 N701QR Fatal(1) 12/4/04 BELGRADE, MT Cirrus N1159C Fatal(3) 12/4/2004 BELGRADE, MT Cirrus Design Corp. SR22 N1159C Fatal(3) 7/31/2002 BELGRADE, MT Blanik L-13 N70741 Nonfatal 8/21/1999 BELGRADE, MT Cessna 180A N5359D Nonfatal 6/17/1999 BELGRADE, MT Let L-13 N70741 Nonfatal 8/3/1996 BELGRADE, MT Grumman-Schweizer G-164A N9853 Nonfatal 3/18/1994 BELGRADE, MT CESSNA 182G N2399R Nonfatal 8/11/1991 BELGRADE, MT BEECH V35B N18307 Nonfatal 8/12/1990 BELGRADE, MT BOEING 727-224 N69735 Incident 6/3/1990 BELGRADE, MT PIPER PA-38-112 N9375T Nonfatal 4/4/1987 BELGRADE, MT BOEING A75L3 N5084N Nonfatal 9/11/1984 BELGRADE, MT CESSNA 140 N2628N Nonfatal 4/12/1981 BELGRADE, MT CESSNA 175 N9428B Nonfatal 5/21/1979 BELGRADE, MT SCORPION II N133RW Nonfatal 10/8/1978 BELGRADE, MT PIPER PA-28 N43481 Nonfatal 7/28/1978 BELGRADE, MT CESSNA 180E N2666Y Nonfatal 6/30/1978 BELGRADE, MT CESSNA 210L N22195 Fatal(2) 4/15/1978 BELGRADE, MT CESSNA 305A N5240G Nonfatal 10/20/1977 BELGRADE, MT CESSNA 310G N8984Z Nonfatal 7/26/1973 BELGRADE, MT SCHWEIZER 2-33 N7758S Nonfatal 6/27/1973 BELGRADE, MT PIPER PA-25 N6441Z Nonfatal 6/22/1973 BELGRADE, MT PIPER PA-25 N6530Z Nonfatal Table 4.28c NTSB Incident Report Summary for Manhattan, Montana Event Date Location Make / Model Reg. Number Event Severity 1/3/1985 MANHATTAN, MT POLLIWAGEN 2 PLACE N13954 Fatal(1) 10/2/1982 MANHATTAN, MT SCORPION 133 N133RW Nonfatal Table 4.28d NTSB Incident Report Summary for Three Forks, Montana Event Date Location Make / Model Reg. Number Event Severity 1/15/11 THREE FORKS, MT Bell 206B3 N78BR Nonfatal 1/18/09 THREE FORKS, MT Ryan Nanon N4443K Nonfatal 4/3/08 THREE FORKS, MT Piper PA-22/20 N1139C Nonfatal 7/29/07 THREE FORKS, MT Hughes 269C N428MS Nonfatal 3/16/2000 THREE FORKS, MT Piper PA-18-150 N2873Z Nonfatal 9/2/1993 THREE FORKS, MT CESSNA A188B N21861 Nonfatal 8/1/1992 THREE FORKS, MT BOEING B-75 N5176N Nonfatal 3/21/1990 THREE FORKS, MT CESSNA 172M N80830 Nonfatal 2/5/1984 THREE FORKS, MT MAULE M-4S N9832M Nonfatal 9/27/1979 THREE FORKS, MT CESSNA 172K N84445 Nonfatal 5/17/1976 THREE FORKS, MT CESSNA 188B N4810Q Nonfatal 5/5/1976 THREE FORKS, MT CESSNA 150 N18119 Nonfatal 6/30/1970 THREE FORKS, MT PIPER PA-32 N4193W Nonfatal 8/30/1969 THREE FORKS, MT CESSNA 195 N9369A Nonfatal 6/19/1966 THREE FORKS, MT CESSNA 182 N6235A Nonfatal July 2012 4-47 Table 4.28e NTSB Incident Report Summary for West Yellowstone, Montana Event Date Location Make / Model Regist. Number Event Severity 10/5/1998 BIG SKY, MT Aerospatiale SA-315B N5803J Nonfatal 5/16/1987 BIG SKY, MT CESSNA 170B N1979C Nonfatal 7/1/1979 BIG SKY, MT BELLANCA 7GCBC N6397V Fatal(2) Probability As the historical record demonstrates, the probability for a private, small aircraft accident is much greater than one involving a large commercial jet in Gallatin County. Although an incident involving a commercial passenger flight and mass casualties cannot be ruled out, the probability is considered low. Statistics compiled based on NTSB incident reports can be found in Table 4.29. Table 4.30 shows the number of incidents by 10-year periods. Table 4.29 Summary by Location of NTSB Reported Accidents for Gallatin County Location Number of Incidents Fatalities Bozeman 36 20 Belgrade 26 11 Manhattan 2 1 Three Forks 15 0 West Yellowstone / Big Sky area 3 2 TOTAL 82 34 Table 4.30 Summary by 10-year Periods of NTSB Reported Accidents for Gallatin County Period Number of Incidents Fatalities 1965-1974 10 5 1975-1984 20 6 1985-1994 18 5 1995-2004 23 13 AVERAGE 17.75 7.25 Based on these statistics for Gallatin County over a forty year period (1965-2005), a ten- year average can be derived. In an average ten-year period, 17.75 incidents causing damage can be expected involving 7.25 fatalities. Unfortunately, the number of incidents appears to be increasing somewhat. Mapping The statistics show that incidents occur both on and off airport facilities. Therefore, determining hazard areas based on airport locations would only be minimally beneficial, would not show all hazard areas, and therefore, will not be completed here. Associated Hazards and Other Factors July 2012 4-48 The hazard of aviation accidents can involve multiple factors. The two most significant include the location of the accident and the cargo on board. The location of an aviation accident will determine the significance of ground casualties and damages. An aircraft accident in a populated downtown area has a much greater potential for additional casualties and property damage than one that occurs in a remote part of the county. The location also affects the ability of responders to get to the crash site. The mountainous terrain in Gallatin County can make rescues and recovery difficult, particularly during inclement weather. The cargo is an important factor if such cargo would create a hazardous material release or increased fire hazard. Should the contents of the aircraft be hazardous, the situation would need to be treated not only as an aviation accident but also as a contaminated site. The possibility of an aviation accident as an intentional act cannot be ruled out, in which case, the accident site would also become a crime scene and possibly involve mass casualties. Any hazard that involves aircraft in the response or recovery could have an aircraft accident as an associated hazard. The helicopter crash during the Fridley Fire in adjacent Park County in 2001 is an example, where a firefighting helicopter crashed during bucket operations. Other possibilities include supply aircraft hauling recovery materials following an earthquake or flood. Vulnerability Critical Facilities All critical facilities in Gallatin County are considered to be at risk from aircraft accidents. Given the nature of historical events and the probability of a specific facility being hit, the overall vulnerability of any given critical facility is considered very low. Bozeman Deaconess Hospital, however, has been identified as a facility at an increased risk because of the helicopter medical transport operations conducted there. The landing pad for the helicopters is very close to active patient areas of the hospital and the potential for an accident damaging the hospital is somewhat greater. The only infrastructures that can be considered at a slightly higher risk are the tall communications towers and power lines. Again, however, the likelihood of this type of infrastructure coinciding with a crash site is considered low. Potential Losses In most aviation accidents in Gallatin County, the losses are limited to the people on board and the aircraft itself. Should an accident occur in a developed area, structural losses in the neighborhood of $286,000 (2 homes x $143,000/average home) plus ground casualties could be found. A large commercial jet in a developed area could potentially destroy an entire city block for a loss of roughly $1,500,000 (assuming 10 or so structures were destroyed). Additional losses, including potential economic losses, could result from the response and recovery efforts during a mass casualty incident of this magnitude. Potential Population Impacts July 2012 4-49 The population impacts are going to be directly related to the type of aircraft involved, the number of people on board, the location of the accident, and the number of people in the area of the crash site. Typically, with aircraft accidents, very little warning exists so the population would be unaware until after the event occurred. Impact of Future Development Due to the somewhat random location of aircraft accidents, the impact of future development is generally the same regardless of where that development occurs, with the possible exception of in the immediate vicinity of the airport. Therefore, the impact of future development is considered minimal. Data Limitations The National Transportation Safety Board keeps very detailed records of damaging aircraft incidents. These records allow for in-depth analysis of individual accidents. The randomness of aircraft accidents, however, limits the usefulness of such information in determining the potential for losses and areas of greatest hazard. Data outlining the number of aircraft passing over Gallatin County and the areas they typically traverse would help to quantify the potential for additional major accidents. Yellowstone Gateway International Airport, 201015 15 Photo Courtesy of Patrick Lonergan July 2012 4-50 COMMUNICABLE DISEASE and BIOTERRORISM Description Disease can be devastating to a community through its population or its economy. Human diseases when on an epidemic scale can lead to high infection rates in the population. Depending on the disease, quarantines and mass fatalities may result. Highly contagious diseases are the most threatening to the community, and even if the mortality rate is low in the general population, such as with influenza, the disease can be highly hazardous for the elderly, children, and those with suppressed immune systems. Humans are not the only disease concern. Contagious animal and plant diseases could distress the agricultural community. In such a situation, food supplies and the economy would be threatened, depending on the disease and animal or plant affected. Known livestock and animal diseases such as Foot and Mouth, Chronic Wasting, Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE or Mad Cow Disease), West Nile, and Brucellosis, among others, could have damaging effects on the livestock population.16 Diseases can be transported in a number of ways including naturally and intentionally. Naturally occurring diseases, some of which may not have even formed yet, could infect the population or agriculture with little notice. Others, such as influenza, may be particularly severe in any given year. Terrorists could use biological agents as a method of attack on both our population and food supplies. Regional Hazardous Materials Response Team Training in Big Timber, 2009.17 History Diseases are a part of everyday life. When they significantly impact the population, however, actions are taken to prevent additional infection. Most recently, a statewide measles outbreak in 1988 was noted by the Gallatin County Health Department. Fortunately, very significant events have not occurred in Gallatin County in recent history, but in the early 1900’s the Spanish influenza reached epidemic levels. After World War I, 16 Montana Department of Livestock, http://www.discoveringmontana.com/liv/. 17 Photo courtesy of Patrick Lonergan. July 2012 4-51 the Spanish influenza caused 9.9 deaths per 1,000 people in the State of Montana from 1918-1919.18 Probability The probability of an epidemic in Gallatin County is rather difficult to assess based on history and current data. Medicine has improved significantly over the past 50 years and continues to do so every day. Given the urban nature of Bozeman, the probability of rapid infection is somewhat greater than more rural parts of the county and state. The probability of an epidemic infecting humans, animals, or plants is considered moderate. Given relatively rapid worldwide airline travel and the large influx of tourists to Yellowstone National Park through Gallatin County, International Studies at Montana State University, a disease originating in another part of the world could easily travel unknowingly to Gallatin County, thus increasing the probability of new diseases in this region as compared to other parts of the state. Mapping The communicable disease and bioterrorism hazard is somewhat uniform across the county. The urban areas may be slightly more vulnerable to the rapid spread of disease in humans; however, the more rural areas are more vulnerable for animal and plant diseases. Therefore, mapping does not enhance this hazard profile. Associated Hazards and Other Factors Other disasters such as those that result in the loss or contamination of potable water or sanitary services may result in an increased probability of disease. Often following a large scale disaster, disease is a primary concern. The time of year and weather conditions may also be a factor in the development of an epidemic. A bioterrorism event may be tied to or done in conjunction with a larger scale terrorism event. Vulnerability Critical Facilities In general, Critical facilities are not structurally threatened by communicable disease and bioterrorism, however, their accessibility and function can be lost. Contamination of a critical facility could render the facility non-functional until decontamination or the threat has passed. For this reason, all critical facilities are assumed to be at risk from communicable disease and bioterrorism. As with any human biological event, the hospitals and health service providers would most likely discover a threat and possibly become the first contaminated. The public water systems are also potentially at risk to communicable diseases and bioterrorism. 18 Brainerd, Elizabeth and Mark V. Siegler. The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic. June 2002. July 2012 4-52 Potential Losses Potential loss from communicable disease and bioterrorism, in addition to the obvious population impacts (discussed in the next section), is to the economy. Human, animal, or plant diseases may all have a significant impact on the Gallatin County economy, particularly tourism or agriculture. A human quarantine or highly publicized event may affect sales in the community through tourism and resident services, resulting in long term economic impacts. Animal or plant diseases nationwide could have an overarching effect on the national economy. More directly, however, Gallatin County has 1071 farms totaling nearly 776,868 acres. In the 2007 Agriculture Census, market value of products sold from agriculture was $95,148,000 with $47,244,000 from livestock sales in Gallatin County. At the start of 2004, Gallatin County had 52,350 head of cattle, 5,025 sheep, and hundreds of chickens for agriculture purposes.19 This income and livestock could be lost in a severe animal disease outbreak. 19 2007 Agriculture Census July 2012 4-53 Potential Population Impacts The entire Gallatin County population of 75,637 is at risk for contracting disease. The urban nature of Bozeman makes it more vulnerable to rapidly spreading and highly contagious diseases than more rural parts of the county. The number of fatalities in the county would depend on the mortality rate and the percentage of the population affected. The ability to control the spread of disease would be dependent on the contagiousness of the disease, movement of the population, and the warning time involved. Impact of Future Development Future development would not be directly impacted by communicable disease and bioterrorism, but any additional residents would be at risk for disease. Data Limitations Disease is a difficult hazard for which to provide specific vulnerabilities. For a disease to have a major impact, it first has to enter the community and then spread. That starting point, how the disease progresses, and preventive actions taken will determine the eventual outcome. The data and analysis are limited by these outside factors. July 2012 4-54 DAM FAILURE Description Dams have been placed around Montana for many reasons including recreation, flood control, irrigation, water supply, hydroelectricity, and mining. Dams are built and owned by a variety of entities such as private individuals, businesses, and government. They come in all shapes and sizes from small earthen dams to large concrete structures. The structural integrity of a dam depends on its design, maintenance, and weather/drainage situation. Problems arise when a dam fails and people and/or property lie in its inundation area. Dams can fail for a variety of reasons including poor maintenance, overwhelming weather and flow conditions, or by an intentional act. Dam failure can be compared to riverine or flash flooding in the area downstream from the dam, and sometimes for long distances from the dam, depending on the amount of water retained and the drainage area. Others may be located in areas that result in little if any damages during a failure. Hazard ratings are given to dams for emergency management planning purposes. These ratings, high, significant, and low, are based on the potential for loss of life and property damage from the failure of the dam, not the condition or probability of the dam failing. Definitions, as accepted by the Interagency Committee on Dam Safet y, are as follows: Low Hazard Potential Dams assigned the low hazard potential classification are those where failure or misoperation results in no probable loss of human life and low economic and/or environmental loss. Losses are principally limited to the owner’s property. Significant Hazard Potential Dams assigned the significant hazard potential classification are those dams where failure or misoperation results in no probable loss of human life but can cause economic loss, environment damage, disruption of lifeline facilities, or impact other concerns. Significant hazard potential classification dams are often located in predominantly rural or agricultural areas but could be located in areas with population and significant infrastructure. High Hazard Potential Dams assigned the high hazard potential classification are those where failure or misoperation will probably cause loss of human life. Gallatin County has six high hazard dams, one significant hazard dam, and three low hazard dams as shown in Table 4.31. July 2012 4-55 Table 4.31 Dams in Gallatin County, Montana20 Dam Name River NID Height (feet) NID Storage (acre-ft) Drainage Area (sq. mi) Year Finished Hazard Owner Big Sky Middle Fk West Fk Gallatin River 52 225 5 1973 H Boyne, USA Golden Meadow Meadow Creek 24 189 1974 L Higgins Brothers Pacabo Darlington Ditch 8 70 1956 L Harry Gillingham Middle Creek Middle Creek 125 12790 28 1951 H State of Montana Green Hollow Creek Green Hollow Creek 45 300 4 1990 H Turner Enterprises Real Close Duck Creek 15 83 1963 L Rupert D. Koelza Big Sky Waste Water 1 Offstream 23 N/A 1997 H Big Sky County WSD Big Sky Waste Water 3 Offstream 22 N/A 1997 H Big Sky County WSD Kistner Hardy South Fork Muddy Creek 20 340 1945 S Robert Weyerhauser Hebgen Madison River 88 525620 905 1915 H PPL Montana Hyalite Reservoir, 2011. 21 History There are no known accidental dam breaks in the history of Gallatin County. Several dams have purposely been breached for various reasons in the past. The most recent was the Mystic Lake Dam in Sourdough Canyon, this dam was breached as a mitigation measure to prevent a future failure. The Mystic Lake Dam was a water retention dam for the City of Bozeman water supply. Probability The probability of dam failure in Gallatin County is considered moderate. A fair number of dams do exist in the county. Several are listed as high hazard dams; however the probability of those dams breaking is considered low. High or significant hazard dams are the most probable to cause damages, and none are known to be unstable. The Montana 20 National Inventory of Dams, http://crunch.tec.army.mil/nid/webpages/nid.cfm. 21 Photo courtesy of Patrick Lonergan & Summit Air Ambulance. July 2012 4-56 Department of Natural Resources keeps an assessment of dams not meeting safety standards. The Hyalite Dam poses a significant life and property risk when the number of structures, critical facilities and transportation routes in the inundation area are evaluated. Therefore, Gallatin County has the possibility of a significant dam break but the probability is considered low. Mapping The locations and hazard assignment of dams in Gallatin County can be found on Map 4.32a. Several dams are not shown on this map because they are not actually located in Gallatin County; however they have a direct and immediate impact on the county. Map 4.32b is the Hyalite inundation map. Inundation mapping for the Hyalite, Hebgen, and Big Sky dams exist in their Emergency Action Plans. These maps can be found in the Gallatin County Disaster and Emergency Services office. Madison Dam Damage, 201022 22 Photo courtesy of Chris Mumme, Madison County July 2012 4-57 Map 4.32a Dam Locations and Hazard Ratings in Gallatin County, Montana / Legend High Low Significant July 2012 4-58 Map 4.32b Hyalite Inundation Map, Gallatin County, MT (On file with Gallatin Emer. Mgmt.) July 2012 4-59 Associated Hazards and Other Factors Dam failure is most often associated with other hazards. Rarely do dams just crumble and break without some other underlying cause. Heavy rainfall or high water levels from rapid snowmelt are typically a contributing factor in a dam failure. In this scenario, flooding may already be occurring, in which case, a dam failure would aggravate the situation. Dams have also broken as a side effect of significant earthquakes. Most dams in Gallatin County have not been seismically assessed. Dam failure as a terrorist act has also been proposed by many agencies evaluating our homeland security. Vulnerability Critical Facilities Many of the Gallatin County critical facilities are located within the dam failure inundation areas. During a failure, these facilities could be expected to be significantly impacted. Several roadways may become impassible, making travel to critical facilities more difficult. Potential Losses A break of the Hyalite dam would have significant catastrophic effects on Gallatin County. Approximately 1,868 residential structures, including 40 multi-family structures, 181 commercial structures, 2 fire stations, 3 schools and 22 other classified structures are affected by this scenario. Along with the structures, Interstate 90 is inundated in two places, Highway 191 is susceptible to significant damage in multiple locations, the City of Belgrade is effectively turned into an island, the airport is inaccessible, and the railroad is broken in several places. 1 hour after a total failure a 54 foot high wall of water and debris is forecasted to reach the mouth of Hyalite Canyon. Three hours later the water reaches Four Corners at approximately 12 feet high. Along with the significant human losses this scenario would be a catastrophic economic event for Gallatin County and the State of Montana. Potential Population Impacts With any flooding or dam failure event, the loss of life is always possible. As with flash flooding, the warning time for a dam failure can be fairly short, but some warning does exist. The Hyalite Dam, of all the dams in Gallatin County, poses the greatest risk to lives. This dam currently has no early warning system. July 2012 4-60 Impact of Future Development The areas of Manhattan, Belgrade and Four Corners near where the inundation areas are located in Gallatin County are currently rural, agricultural areas, experiencing some of the largest growth in the county. Growth can be expected to continue in these areas. Eventually, without consideration of dam failure during the planning process, future development could place residences and business in the hazard areas. Data Limitations Readily available digital data outlining the inundation areas of high hazard dams would allow for a slightly more detailed analysis of potential losses and mapping in this plan. Otherwise, the studies and mapping of the dam hazard are thoroughly outlined in the individual Emergency Action Plans. To estimate the losses from a dam break, the average damage to the structures and critical facilities impacted was estimated to be 30% since many structures may have little damage while others may be complete losses. A loss ratio specific to dam failure would allow for a more accurate loss estimation. July 2012 4-61 DROUGHT Description Drought is an insidious hazard of nature. Although it has scores of definitions, it originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually a season or more. This deficiency results in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Drought should be considered relative to some long-term average condition of balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration (i.e., evaporation + transpiration) in a particular area, a condition often perceived as “normal”. It is also related to the timing (i.e., principal season of occurrence, delays in the start of the rainy season, occurrence of rains in relation to principal crop growth stages) and the effectiveness (i.e., rainfall intensity, number of rainfall events) of the rains. Other climatic factors such as high temperature, high wind, and low relative humidity are often associated with it in many regions of the world and can significantly aggravate its severity.23 Droughts can range from minor to severe, short-term to long-term with a variety of determining factors such as precipitation, soil moisture, and tree moisture. A minor, short- term drought can slip by unnoticed while a long-term severe drought can impact the agricultural economy, natural resources such as fish populations, and even public water supplies. In Montana, drought conditions have also been associated with grasshopper infestations and blight. Montana is known for its arid climate and Gallatin County is no exception. The region has been in drought for the past several years based on climate information, drought indices such as the Palmer Index, and drought monitoring at the national level. Figure 4.33 shows the drought status of the United States in January 2005. Note that Gallatin County is located in the “severe” drought intensity. The State of Montana has a Drought Advisory Committee and a State Drought Plan in place to address this hazard. Historical weather records show that Bozeman temperatures can get as high as 109ºF in the summer with extremely low humidity’s and high winds. Such dry, hot conditions exacerbate drought conditions during periods of low precipitation. 23 National Drought Mitigation Center, http://www.drought.unl.edu/index.htm. July 2012 4-62 Figure 4.33 National Drought Conditions in December 2011 July 2012 4-63 History Drought has a long history in Gallatin County and all of Montana. Paleoclimate studies show extreme periods of drought hundreds of years ago. The periods of 200-370 A.D., 700-850 A.D., and 1000-1200 A.D. are identified as long-term periods of drought in the Northern Great Plains. With the development of a more detailed weather monitoring network, climate records generally date back 100 years in Montana. Based on data from Montana Disaster and Emergency Services, Gallatin County has been in drought several times over the past decade. Table 4.34 identifies and describes these periods. Table 4.34 Gallatin County Drought Periods since 19006 Time Period Description 1930’s The “Dust Bowl” created erosion problems and dust storms throughout the state. Mid 1950’s Extended period of reduced rainfall in Eastern and Central Montana. 1960’s (1961 and 1966 specifically) Entire state affected, although the impact of this drought was lessened through better conservation practices such as strip cropping. 1970’s By May 1977, over 250,000 acres of Montana farmland was damaged by wind. The State of Montana began taking protective measures due to critically low hydroelectric power supplies. 1985 USDA drought disaster declaration. A typical 2,500 acre farm lost more than $100,000 in equity. The state agriculture industry lost nearly $3 billion in equity. 2000-2005 Statewide drought disaster designations in 2000, 2001, and 2002. In 2004, Gallatin County was given a USDA Secretarial Disaster Designation. Most protective measures were conducted at the county level. Probability The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Paleoclimatology Program studies drought by analyzing records from tree rings, lake and dune sediments, archaeological remains, historical documents, and other environmental indicators to obtain a broader picture of the frequency of droughts in the United States. According to their research, “…paleoclimatic data suggest that droughts as s evere as the 1950’s drought have occurred in central North America several times a century over the past 300-400 years, and thus we should expect (and plan for) similar droughts in the future. The paleoclimatic record also indicates that droughts of a much greater duration than any in the 20th century have occurred in parts of North America as recently as 500 years ago.”24 Based on this research, the 1950’s drought situation could be expected approximately once every 50 years or a 24 National Climatic Data Center, Paleoclimatology Branch, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html. July 2012 4-64 20% chance every ten years. An extreme drought, worse than the 1930’s “Dust Bowl,” has an approximate probability of occurring once every 500 years or a 2% chance of occurring each decade. Mapping Drought is regional hazard, and therefore, mapping at the county level is not appropriate here. The county is assumed to have the same risk countywide. Mapping of the current drought status is published by the US Drought Monitor weekly and the Montana Drought Advisory Committee monthly from March through October. Associated Hazards and Other Factors Drought is most commonly associated with wildfire in Gallatin County. Dry conditions contribute to lower moisture content in the trees and plants that provide fuel for wildfires. An initial look at the driest years show that they do not directly coincide with severe wildfire seasons, however, the effects of drought can carry into the long term. One season of severely low precipitation may not be enough for extreme fire behavior; however, followed by several seasons of below normal precipitation, the conditions can contribute to an increased probability for significant wildfires. Drought often kills trees and plants that then become very dry fuels for wildfires years later. Short-term drought conditions can prime grasses on non-irrigated lands for grass fires and long-term drought conditions can additionally impact the heavier timber fuels for forest fires. Counter intuitively, in mountainous areas, such as those found in Gallatin County, drought can quickly be followed by flash flooding. Dry soils are not as permeable to water, particularly if the vegetation has been killed, and therefore, heavy rains run off faster than on moist soils with green vegetation and can more easily lead to flash flooding. Blight and grasshopper infestations have a greater probability of occurring in drought conditions. Besides the hydrologic and agricultural impacts, drought can lead to severe dust storms and soil erosion affecting the population and non-agriculture economies. Additional concerns include the water temperatures for fish populations, wildlife health, changes in plant ecology, hydroelectric power supplies, and public water sources. Vulnerability Critical Facilities Generally, critical facilities are not affected directly by drought. Infrastructure relying on the water supply is the primary exception. If the water supply for public drinking water and sewer systems was threatened, those losses could total millions of dollars should equipment be damaged or outside water need to be shipped into the county. The probability of a drought of that significance is considered low. Potential Losses July 2012 4-65 The most probable losses from drought are to the economy. Drought significantly impacts the agricultural economy and can additionally impact tourism. Gallatin County totaled over $41,000,000 in crop sales during 2002. Crops are very directly affected by drought and this economy could potentially be lost if drought conditions persist for a period of time. Crops aren’t the only aspect of agriculture affected by drought. Livestock can also be impacted. The pasture and food supply available to the animals is directly related to drought conditions. With over $35,000,000 in livestock sales in 2002, this larger agriculture economy is additionally threatened by drought. Natural resources, and therefore tourism, are influenced by drought. As river and stream levels drop, fish populations and other natural resources are impacted. With fishing and river recreational activities a very important part of the tourism industry in Gallatin County, those aspects of the economy can be threatened during extended periods of drought. Potential Population Impacts Since drought evolves slowly over time, the population has ample time to prepare for its effects and is warned accordingly. The greatest direct threat to the population from drought is through the drinking water supply. Should a drought affect the water available for public water systems or individual wells, the availability of clean drinking water could be compromised. This situation would require emergency actions and could possibly overwhelm the local government and financial resources. Impact of Future Development Future development’s greatest impact on the drought hazard would be through possibly limiting ground water resources. Fortunately, public systems, individual wells, and septic systems are carefully monitored and regulated by Montana Department of Environmental Quality. Therefore, the impact of future development with respect to drought is considered low. Data Limitations The greatest data limitation with drought is the inability to pinpoint the start and end of drought periods and the associated correlation with economic losses. An online database of historical USDA drought declarations and the associated losses would prove beneficial in documenting the effects of drought and directing mitigation activities. July 2012 4-66 EARTHQUAKE Description One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe earthquake and its terrible aftereffects. An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time. For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release the accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. If the earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause many deaths and injuries and extensive property damage.25 Montana is the fourth ranked state in the United States for seismicity and has many faults, primarily in the mountainous parts of the state. Yellowstone National Park, within and to the south of Gallatin County, is an active geothermal area with approximately 2,000 earthquakes each year. The Intermountain Seismic Belt, shown in Figure 4.35, demonstrates the active seismic areas of the state. Gallatin County lies in the middle of the most active areas and has experienced many significant earthquakes. Earthquakes can damage property and infrastructure very rapidly and significantly with little warning, severely impacting those close to the epicenter and being felt for hundreds of miles. 1959 Hebgen Lake Earthquake.26 25 US Geological Survey, http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/earthq1/intro.html. 26 USGS. ID. Hadley, J.B. 2ct July 2012 4-67 Figure 4.35a Quaternary Faults in Western Montana27 27 Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology, Special Publication 117, 2005. Plate 2a July 2012 4-68 Figure 4.35b 2% Probability of Exceedence in 50 Years28 28 Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology, Special Publication 117, 2005. Plate 17 July 2012 4-69 History Since 1900, sixteen earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater have occurred within 100 miles of Gallatin County. Table 4.36 shows the list of these earthquakes. Table 4.36 Earthquakes Magnitude 5.5 or greater within 100 miles of Gallatin County, Montana29 Date Approximate Location Magnitude 6/28/1925 Clarkston 6.6 2/16/1929 Lombard 5.6 10/12/1935 Helena 5.9 10/19/1935 Helena 6.3 10/31/1935 Helena 6.0 11/23/1947 Virginia City 6.1 8/18/1959 Hebgen Lake 7.5 8/18/1959 Hebgen Lake 6.5 8/18/1959 Hebgen Lake 6.0 8/18/1959 Hebgen Lake 5.6 8/18/1959 Hebgen Lake 6.3 8/19/1959 Hebgen Lake 6.0 10/21/1964 Hebgen Lake 5.6 6/30/1975 Yellowstone Gallatin 5.9 12/8/1976 Yellowstone Gallatin 5.5 7/25/2005 Dillon 5.6 The closest of these earthquakes to southern Gallatin County were the Hebgen Lake and Yellowstone Park earthquakes, and to northern Gallatin County, the Clarkston and Lombard earthquakes. The Clarkston earthquake caused relatively light damages due to the rural nature of the area at that time. Most of the damages were confined to Manhattan, Logan, Three Forks, and Lombard in Gallatin and Broadwater Counties. The earthquake was felt from the North Dakota line to Washington and from the Canadian border to central Wyoming. Un- reinforced brick structures suffered the greatest damages. Bozeman felt five distinct shocks. Pavement and buildings sustained cracks up to an inch wide. Mines in Jardine in neighboring Park County were feared to have been damaged. Bozeman police reported the tower of a high building swaying with many people fainting and rushing to the streets. A train from Livingston was sent to rescue passengers from trains trapped by landslides near Lombard. In Clyde Park in Park County, the stock of tinware at Jack O’Leary’s store fell off the shelves.30 The initial Hebgen Lake earthquake on August 18, 1959 is the most significant earthquake to have occurred in the region over the past 100 years. This magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred about 30 miles from Gardiner and about 70 miles from Bozeman. This surface 29 Stickney, Michael et al. Quaternary Faults and Seismicity in Western Montana. Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology Special Publication 114, 2000. 30 University of Utah, http://www.seis.utah.edu/lqthreat/nehrp_htm/1925clar/n1925cl1.shtml#misbes . July 2012 4-70 rupturing earthquake changed the geology of the Hebgen Lake area and triggered a major landslide (80 million tons of rock). The result was the creation of a new lake, Earthquake Lake, on the Madison River and State Highway 287 was buried. Twenty-eight people were killed and roadway and timber damages totaled over $11 million. The quake was felt in 8 states and 3 Canadian provinces. 31 The North Entrance to Yellowstone National Park did have some landslides blocking roadways, but all were cleared within 2 days. Also damaged was the Golden Gate just above Mammoth Hot Springs near Gallatin County. Damages in the park were estimated at about $2 million. Probability Earthquakes when large and damaging are infrequent events. Gallatin County experiences many small earthquakes every month, but they are undetectable except by instrumentation. The mapping section that follows outlines some of the probabilities used in earthquake modeling as it varies throughout the county. Depending on the earthquake magnitude, recurrence intervals for Western Montana, including Gallatin County, are currently being developed. The geography of Gallatin County is such that it lies within several categories of seismic source zones. The most active of which is the Northern Intermountain Seismic Belt to the north and west. This region is estimated to recurrence rate of 3.84 years for a magnitude 5 or greater earthquake, 22.6 years for a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake, and 133 years for a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake. Mapping Gallatin County has undertaken a significant HAZUS-MH study looking specifically at earthquakes in the area. Two quake scenarios were used to study the effects in the County, a magnitude 6.5 on the Bridger fault which runs along the base of the Bridger Mountains and a magnitude 7.5 on the Madison Fault to simulate the effects on the current building stock, critical infrastructure and economy. The HAZUS project was completed in August of 2005 as part of this Pre-Disaster Mitigation Plan and the detailed results are on file in the Gallatin County Emergency Management Office. Much of the data in this section of the PDM plan comes from the HAZUS report. Map 4.37 shows the soils susceptibility to ground shaking in Gallatin County. Full scale maps are available with the HAZUS report. 31 US Geological Survey, http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/states/montana/montana_history.html. July 2012 4-71 Map 4.37 Soil Susceptibility to Ground Shaking in Gallatin County July 2012 4-72 History has shown that significant earthquakes (up to magnitude 6.5) may occur anywhere throughout the Intermountain Seismic Belt, even in areas where young faults are not recognized. Examples of damaging earthquakes for which no known surface fault was recognized include the 1925 Clarkston earthquake (magnitude 6.6) and the 1935 Helena earthquakes (magnitude 6.3-5.9). Associated Hazards and Other Factors The seismic action of earthquakes often triggers other events. Landslides are quite common in Montana with large earthquakes. During the winter, avalanches can also be triggered. An associated map showing areas prone to these two hazards is shown in the Avalanche and Landslide section of this plan. Dam breaks and landslides on waterways may cause flooding. The rupture of gas lines can result in large scale urban fires, particularly if power outages or broken water mains disrupt water supplies. Any number of additional incidents may occur due to the failure of infrastructure such as hazardous material spills and large scale transportation accidents. All of these associated factors contribute to the severity of the earthquake event. Vulnerability Critical Facilities Since the probability and likely strength of an earthquake varies across the county, the threat to critical facilities can be assessed based on their geographic locations. Structural assessments of the individual facilities would further determine the seismic stability of that structure. Based on geography, however, the critical facilities and vulnerable populations near the fault lines can be considered the most vulnerable. All critical facilities are at risk from earthquakes in Gallatin County. In addition, un-reinforced masonry construction is particularly vulnerable to seismic shaking. Therefore, any critical facilities with, or within close proximity to un-reinforced masonry can be considered at greatest risk. Potential Losses Earthquake damages can be difficult to predict and assess without detailed structure information or a damage model. Fortunately, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has developed loss estimate software for earthquakes (HAZUS). This model uses national databases to estimate the earthquake losses from a particular event at the census block, tract, or county level. Although the default data provided with the model is far from accurate, the model provides a general estimate of what earthquake losses may occur and the magnitude of such. Because of this general data Gallatin County spent a significant portion of its project time with HAZUS to gather broader more accurate data. Results were significantly improved due to this data acquisition. For this plan we will use the 7.5 Madison Fault for our data since this is a worst case scenario and is comparable to the Hebgen Lake quake. HAZUS estimates that there are 25 thousand buildings in the region which have an aggregate total replacement value of $4,369,000,000.00. In terms of building construction July 2012 4-73 types found in the region, wood frame construction makes up 81% of the building inventory. HAZUS breaks critical facilities into two groups: essential facilities and high potential loss facilities. Essential facilities include hospitals, medical clinics, schools, fire stations, police stations and emergency operations facilities. High potential loss facilities include dams, levees, military installations, and hazardous materials sites. For essential facilities, there are 41 hospitals in the region with a total bed capacity of 108 beds. There are 60 schools, 30 fire stations, 6 police stations, and 2 emergency operations centers. With respect to high potential loss facilities, there are 8 dams identified within the region. Of these, 5 of the dams are classified as high hazard. The inventory includes 157 hazmat sites, and one military facility. There are seven transportation systems that include highways, railways, light rail, bus and airports. There are six utility systems that include potable water, waste water, natural gas, crude and refined oil, electric power and communications. These items are considered as lifeline inventory and are valued at over $72,000,000.00. This inventory includes 1604 kilometers of highways, 320 bridges, and 2,286 kilometers of pipes. The following is the expected damage to structures in the two scenarios; Magnitude 6.5 on Bridger Fault  Structure Damages: - Complete: structure - Extensive: structures - Moderate: structures - Slight: structures  Casualties requiring medical attention based on time of day; o 2AM - 597 o 2PM - 487 o 5PM - 490 Magnitude 7.5 on Madison fault  Structure Damages: - Complete: 1,622 structures - Extensive: 1,341structures - Moderate: 2,408 structures - Slight: 3,820 structures  Casualties requiring medical attention based on time of day; o 2AM – 412 o 2PM – 495 o 5PM - 430 Many structures, including critical facilities, within Gallatin County have not been seismically assessed. Depending on the construction, those homes, businesses, and critical facilities may not be structured to withstand seismic shaking. Downtown Bozeman also has a number of unreinforced masonry buildings that house businesses. July 2012 4-74 Potential Population Impacts The population would have little or most likely no warning prior to an earthquake. Most casualties in a large earthquake in Gallatin County would be anticipated with building collapse, roadway failures, falling objects, and landslides. The number of actual casualties will be dependent on a variety of factors including proximity to the epicenter, time of day, and magnitude, among others. Impact of Future Development Any future development in Gallatin County is at risk for earthquake damages. Fortunately, construction standards for seismic stability have improved over the past 100 years. Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan, Three Forks, and West Yellowstone are the only jurisdictions within Gallatin County that have a building code and inspection program. Other areas of the county are under the state building code that for most single family homes is only subject to electrical, plumbing, and septic inspections. Much of the new Gallatin County construction is taking place in the areas near the identified and active Faults. Should an earthquake occur on these faults, the future development that occurs will be in the highest hazard area. Data Limitations Since earthquakes are a relatively rare event, perhaps the greatest challenge is understanding the true probability and damages possible. More research is needed in identifying fault areas and developing digital data for use in the HAZUS modules. Improving the modeling and assessing individual facilities will allow for a more accurate vulnerability assessment. 6.75 magnitude Clarkston Valley Earthquake, Three Forks Church, 192532 32 J.T. Pardee, Courtesy of U.S. Geological Survey July 2012 4-75 FLOODING Description Flooding is the inundation of a normally dry area with water. Riverine flooding occurs on rivers, creeks, and streams as water levels rise be it from excessive precipitation, rapid snowmelt, dam failure, or ice jams. Unlike riverine flooding, flash flooding can happen anywhere. As the name implies, flash flooding happens quickly after intense rains, dam or ice jam breaks, or rapid runoff in mountainous or recently burned areas. Urban flooding is the result of development and the ground’s decreased ability to absorb the rainfall. Flooding from groundwater does not typically result in floodwaters at the surface, but occasionally basements and crawlspaces can be flooded by excessive groundwater. Flooding is different from most other hazards in that riverine flooding problems are managed through a national insurance system called the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) under the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Gallatin County, Cities of Bozeman, Belgrade, and Three Forks are all NFIP participants. FEMA conducts a Flood Insurance Study (FIS) of a region to identify the community's risk levels. The FIS includes statistical data for river flow, rainfall, topographic surveys, as well as hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. After examining the FIS data, FEMA creates Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) delineating the different areas of flood risk. Land areas that are at high risk for flooding are called Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), or floodplains.33 These maps are certainly not all inclusive and other flood prone areas may exist. Montana is currently undergoing a map modernization process. The FIRM maps in Gallatin County were recently digitized and the new digital FIRMs went into effect on September 2, 2011. 2011 FEMA FIRM Map34 33 Federal Emergency Management Agency. National Flood Insurance Program, www.floodsmart.gov. 34 Panel 802 of 1725 30031C0802D July 2012 4-76 Flooding in Gallatin County normally occurs during periods of excessive rainfall or snowmelt. The mountainous terrain in Gallatin County is a contributing factor in flash flood and rapid snowmelt problems. Gallatin County has been experiencing both rapid growth and drought for more than five years. The last significant flooding event was in 1997. The Federal Emergency Management Agency currently lists one structure in Gallatin County as being a repetitive loss property for flooding. Since then there has been a steady increase in the amount of development near streams and rivers. Associated with this development are concerns for public health and safety when the next flooding event occurs. The Montana Floodplain and Floodway Management Act (Montana Code Annotated, Title 76, Chapter 5) requires political subdivisions to adopt land use regulations that regulate the use and development of property within the regulated floodways and floodplains. Gallatin County Floodplain Regulations were adopted in 1984 and amended in 1999 and 2011. The regulations are administered through the Gallatin County Planning Department. A task force, called the Gallatin Water Resources Task Force, was put together in May of 2005 to look at water related issues in Gallatin County. The Task Force discussed floodplain issues several times and reviewed the proposed amendments to the Gallatin County Floodplain Regulations. A common concern was the lack of accurate maps of the areas within floodplains in the county. The Task Force discussed a number of technical reasons for the inaccuracy of floodplain maps. While it is clear that everyone would like to have better information on where floodplains are located, there are a lot of differing views on how floodplains should be managed. Task Force members did generally agree that the current methods used to map floodplains in Gallatin County are inappropriate. The Gallatin County Floodplain Regulations are based on flood studies adopted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The FEMA flood studies include maps showing the delineated floodways and floodplains. It is important to understand that these FEMA floodplain maps were developed to assist FEMA with determining insurance rates for flood insurance. While the maps are a useful tool, they were not created specifically for regulatory use. For regulatory purposes in Gallatin County, the FEMA floodplain maps may not accurately show if a property is within what is defined as the “jurisdictional 100- year floodplain boundary”. The jurisdictional 100-year floodplain boundary is defined as the point where the base-flood elevation (determined from the flood-profile sheets of the regulatory flood study adopted by FEMA) intersects the natural ground surface. The lower West Gallatin River consists of several distinct active channels in many areas. This type of river system is referred to as an anabranching river system. In this type of river, channels separate from a main channel and then rejoin the main channel downstream. It is distinguished from a braided river system where there are multiple, shallow, co-mingling channels within the confines of a main channel. The multiple shallow channels are typically separated by low relief sand and gravel bars. The important characteristic of the anabranching lower West Gallatin River is that the channels are very active and migrate over a wide area. Aerial photographs of the lower West Gallatin River show this very clearly. The locations of active channels today are probably significantly different in some areas than the locations when the FEMA floodplain studies were completed. July 2012 4-77 Anabranching on Gallatin River.35 35 Photo courtesy of Montana DNRC, unknown photographer. July 2012 4-78 National Flood Insurance Loss Statistics 1978-2012.36 Total Closed Open CWOP TOTAL COMMUNITY NAME Losses Losses Losses Losses PAYMENTS BILLINGS, CITY OF 72 50 0 22 275,204.70 BLAINE COUNTY* 40 30 0 10 50,810.15 BOZEMAN, CITY OF 35 26 0 9 183,990.35 BROADUS, TOWN OF 11 10 0 1 34,429.00 BROADWATER COUNTY* 2 1 0 1 6,500.47 BUTTE-SILVER BOW COUNTY 8 5 0 3 8,244.84 CARBON COUNTY * 32 29 0 3 290,244.39 CASCADE COUNTY * 142 99 0 43 308,475.59 DEER LODGE, CITY OF 19 16 0 3 67,221.40 EAST HELENA, CITY OF 3 2 0 1 14,454.41 FERGUS COUNTY * 6 5 0 1 111,140.02 FLATHEAD COUNTY* 91 64 0 27 309,170.10 GALLATIN COUNTY * 24 17 0 7 110,458.79 GREAT FALLS, CITY OF 73 53 0 20 132,845.76 JEFFERSON COUNTY * 4 4 0 0 4,997.44 KALISPELL, CITY OF 9 4 0 5 11,085.22 LAUREL, CITY OF 17 11 0 6 98,833.49 LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTY 38 27 0 11 144,503.64 LEWISTOWN, CITY OF 15 8 0 7 124,601.29 LIVINGSTON, CITY OF 12 9 0 3 67,718.81 MADISON COUNTY* 1 1 0 0 13,023.36 MILES CITY, CITY OF 146 108 1 37 398,441.80 MISSOULA COUNTY* 102 77 2 23 494,718.83 MISSOULA, CITY OF 25 18 0 7 53,191.46 PARK COUNTY* 97 80 0 17 700,420.18 STILLWATER COUNTY* 17 10 0 7 53,946.30 SWEET GRASS COUNTY * 21 19 0 2 378,110.27 THREE FORKS, CITY OF 3 0 0 3 0 TOWNSEND, CITY OF 2 2 0 0 13,604.09 VALLEY COUNTY* 225 193 1 31 1,330,512.94 YELLOWSTONE COUNTY * 102 80 0 22 579,366.86 TOTAL FOR MONTANA 1834 1385 5 444 9,578,669.05 **Sampling of Montana Jurisdictions. Visit URL in footnotes for full listing. 36 http://bsa.nfipstat.com/reports/1040.htm July 2012 4-79 Map 4.39 Flood Hazard Areas in Gallatin County, Montana July 2012 4-80 History Gallatin County has not had a large history of flooding. The latest significant flooding event occurred in 1997 as a result of a warm spell in mid January. Table 4.40 lists some of the historical flooding events, this data is gathered from the Flood Insurance Studies for the un-incorporated areas of Gallatin County, the City of Bozeman, and the City of Three Forks. Flood flows on the streams studied in detail are caused primarily by snowmelt or snowmelt and rain during April, May, and June. Flooding can also be caused by ice jams forming in the winter. This problem is especially prevalent on the Madison River. Table 4.40 Gallatin County Historical Flood Events. Date Location Cause April 1893 Bozeman Creek Rainfall/Warm Temps April 1937 Bozeman Creek Rainfall/Warm Temps April 1947 Bozeman Creek Chinook Wind April 1948 Bozeman Creek Heavy Snow/Warm Temps July 1958 Bozeman Creek Rain Event August 1958 Bozeman Creek Rain Event March 1960 Bozeman Creek Warm Winds/ Rapid Snow Melt June 1969 Bozeman Creek Rain Event May 1970 Bozeman Creek Warm Winds/ Rapid Snow Melt January 1974 Bozeman Creek Warm Winds/ Rapid Snow Melt June 1975 Bozeman Creek Warm Winds/ Rapid Snow Melt April 1977 Bozeman Creek Warm Winds/ Rapid Snow Melt Mar-Apr 1952 West Gallatin Rapid Snow Melt June 1959 West Gallatin Rapid Snow Melt February 1963 West Gallatin Warm Temps/Ice Jams May – June 1970 West Gallatin High Water June – July 1971 West Gallatin High Water June 1974 West Gallatin Rapid Snow Melt 1899 Jefferson Rapid Snow Melt 1908 Jefferson Rapid Snow Melt 1927 Jefferson Rapid Snow Melt 1948 Jefferson Rapid Snow Melt 1949 Madison Ice Jam January 1997 West Gallatin / Bozeman Creek Rapid Snow Melt / Warm Temps May 2008 Flooding along Gallatin River tributaries Rapid Snow Melt with rain July 2012 4-81 Probability Flooding probabilities are shown through the mapping of the floodplain. The 100-year floodplain has a 1% probability of being exceeded in any given year. Recent drought years may have taken an emphasis off flooding concerns, but the probability remains that some degree of flooding can be expected once every decade. Probabilities are often measured in exceedance probabilities using discharges (in cubic feet per second) at various locations. Table 4.41 shows the discharges for the stream gauges in and around Gallatin County. Table 4.41 Peak Discharges and Exceedance Probabilities for Streams in Gallatin County Location Probability of Exceedance 1% 100-year event 2% 50-year event 10% 10-year event Bozeman Creek at Nash Rd. 765 cfs 642 cfs 405 cfs Bridger Creek 1260 cfs 1090 cfs 725 cfs East Gallatin 3300 cfs 2950 cfs 2190 cfs West Gallatin at Sheds Bridge 12150 cfs 11200 cfs 8700 cfs West Gallatin at Interstate 90 12350 cfs 11400 cfs 8850 cfs Jefferson at Three Forks 27600 cfs 25000 cfs 18300 cfs Madison at Three Forks 12000 cfs 10800 cfs 8000 cfs Mapping In addition to the floodplain mapping shown in Map 4.39, paper maps exist showing the 100-year floodplain in other parts of the county. Since FEMA has not completed the digital version of the FIRM maps for our county, future mapping efforts are inaccurate at best. Should updated mapping take place, more detailed information can be gathered and mapping can be used to show the relationship of critical facilities and structures to the floodplain. Associated Hazards and Other Factors Excessive rainfall and heavy snows associated with flooding, both riverine and flash, can be related to other hazards. Landslides and mudslides are often attributed to saturated soils and flooding. Flood conditions in and around dams can also be a factor in causing dam failures. During the summer, severe thunderstorms can bring heavy rain, especially if they are slow moving, along with wind, hail, and tornadoes. Often the runoff causes sediment problems in addition to the flooding. These additional hazards can be factors during flood events. One of the factors mitigating flooding is a levee on both sides of the river near Three Forks. July 2012 4-82 Vulnerability Critical Facilities An analysis of the floodplain shows several critical facilities are in the 100-year floodplain. A GIS analysis using the Gallatin County version of the digitized FIRM maps floodplain data and the critical facilities database identifies the facilities estimated in the 100-year floodplain or historic flood areas. A significant limitation with this approach is that the datasets are inexact and the results should only be used for planning purposes, not actual flood zone determinations. This approach essentially identifies the critical facilities at greatest risk from flooding. Ultimately, these critical facilities can be expected to lose their functionality and sustain damages during a major flood. 2008 Flooding37 37 Photo courtesy of Patrick Lonergan July 2012 4-83 Table 4.42 Critical Infrastructure near Flood Prone Areas Since the 100-year floodplain maps are not available in digital format, a buffer of 1,000 feet was created around the larger creeks and streams and a buffer of 100 feet was created around the smaller creeks and streams. Although the actual floodplain widens and constricts depending on the topography, this methodology produces a preliminary estimate of critical facilities that may be at risk for flooding. Legend Elder_care Shelter Bridge School Medical_Care Police Fire Station Railway river / July 2012 4-84 The vulnerabilities to flash flooding are harder to quantify without specific hazard data. In Montana, however, flash flooding has been known to be most problematic to public infrastructure such as roads. Flash flood events can wash out roadways in Gallatin County. Specific critical facilities have not been identified as more susceptible to flash flooding but those structures near creeks and streams and in gulches are most vulnerable. Potential Losses Without accurate digital FIRM Maps, it is not possible to accurately map and determine how many structures are at risk to a potential flooding event. Past history has shown that the primary losses have generally focused around the agricultural industry. Considering that a good portion of the lands near and in mapped floodplains are agricultural in nature we can assume that this trend will continue. Ultimately more accurate and useable digital data is needed to begin to project the potential losses due to flooding in Gallatin County. Potential Population Impacts Due to the terrain and hazard areas in Gallatin County, the population is considered to be at moderate risk for riverine and flash flooding. Some warning does exist, particularly with riverine flooding, but rapidly occurring events may leave the population unprepared and in a dangerous situation. The impacts from flash flooding could be even greater in areas downstream of wildfire burn areas. Flash flooding often occurs without warning. It is not possible to estimate the population in the floodplains at this time due to the aforementioned data limitations. The population in flash flood areas is unknown as flash flood can occur almost anywhere. Impact of Future Development Gallatin County has stringent floodplain regulations that are enforced. The floodplain regulations are in place to promote the public health, safety and general welfare, to minimize flood losses in areas subject to flood hazards and to promote wise use of the floodplain. These regulations were updated as recently as December of 1999. Data Limitations The greatest limitation when analyzing the flood risk in Gallatin County is a lack of digital floodplain mapping and the mapping that does exist is old and outdated. These data limitations prohibit a detailed study of the potential losses from any given flood. Historical records also often lack definitive figures on the damages to private property. The HAZUS-MH program is limited in its accuracy for flood losses due to the limitations in the default data, but more importantly because of its incompatibility with most common versions of software and operating systems. Should these limitations be overcome, a more accurate estimate of flood losses will be determined using HAZUS-MH in future updates of this PDM Plan. July 2012 4-85 GROUND TRANSPORTATION ACCIDENT Description In Gallatin County, a ground transportation accident, for the purposes of this plan, includes any large scale vehicular accident involving mass casualties. The most likely locations for an incident of this magnitude would be on Interstate 90 or on Highway 191. Interstate 90 crosses Northern Gallatin County in an east-west direction. This Interstate is widely used by large trucks, area residents, and distance travelers. Highway 191, south of the Interstate, connects Interstate 90 to West Yellowstone and Yellowstone National Park and is used by tourists visiting the park, local residents, and as a shipping route to the park and points south into Wyoming and Idaho. History Many motor vehicle accidents occur each year in Gallatin County, and occasionally fatalities do occur, but a major incident requiring a significant emergency response only occurs on occasion. In early 2006, local firefighters recall a two-car accident on Highway 191 south of Belgrade, in which 4 individuals lost their lives. The section of highway between Four Corners and West Yellowstone is considered one of the most fatal in the state. Several years ago a tour bus crashed on Interstate 90 resulting in over 40 individuals being transported to the hospital for evaluation and treatment. Probability The probability of a major ground transportation accident is considered moderate based on the historical occurrence and recent call increases. Fire Departments in Gallatin County have seen a significant jump in the number of motor vehicle responses in the 1980’s to where we are today. Therefore, despite a relatively low history of major ground transportation accidents, the increase in motor vehicle accident responses by the local fire departments leads to the assumption that the probability of a major ground transportation accident is increasing. The probability of a large wreck with mass casualties is further increased during the frequent snow storms, periods of poor visibility with blowing snow or smoke, and during times of heavy tourist traffic. 2006 Accident in Gallatin Canyon38 38 Courtesy Bozeman Fire Department, unknown photographer July 2012 4-86 Mapping Map 4.50 shows the major highways and the secondary roadways in Gallatin County. Map 4.50 Gallatin County Highways and Secondary Roads July 2012 4-87 Associated Hazards and Other Factors The additional hazards associated with a ground transportation accident are the obvious concerns for hazardous material releases. Any ground transportation accident involving the transport of hazardous materials increases the complexity and potential damages from that accident. Some hazards may even cause the accident such as winter storms, wildfires, earthquakes, and strong winds. Almost any hazard can cause or magnify a ground transportation mass casualty incident. Vulnerability Critical Facilities The critical facilities are not anticipated to be impacted by a ground transportation accident. A critical facility could be damaged or made inaccessible from the impact of an accident, but the likelihood is considered low and uniform throughout the county. Potential Losses Potential losses from a ground transportation accident include vehicular losses, property damages, and roadway damage. Should vehicle fluids or hazardous materials seep into a water supply, that water body would also be threatened. Typically, most losses from a ground transportation accident are covered by insurance. Should the incident be large enough, the largest expenditures would probably be in responding agency costs. Potential Population Impacts Population losses are highly likely in ground transportation accidents. A ground transportation accident has the potential to kill and injure large numbers of people. Any accident involving a bus or many vehicles has the potential for casualties numbering from 10 to 100. Therefore, the potential for large population losses is considered moderate. Impact of Future Development Future development, except for the associated increase in vehicles in the area, will not impact or will just slightly increase the probability of a large ground transportation accident. Otherwise, the specific locations of where development occurs should not significantly affect the vulnerabilities from this hazard. Data Limitations Without much history of ground transportation accidents with mass casualties in Gallatin County, the ability to assign a probability and possible losses to this hazard is difficult. This hazard profile will always remain somewhat general unless a detailed transportation study is conducted countywide. July 2012 4-88 HAZARDOUS MATERIALS RELEASE Description A hazardous material release is the contamination of the environment (i.e. air, water, soil) by any material that because of its quantity, concentration, or physical or chemical characteristics threatens human health, the environment, or property. An accidental or intentional release of materials could produce a health hazard to those in the immediate area, downwind, and/or downstream. A hazardous material release can come from a fixed facility or via its transportation through the area. The Gallatin County Hazardous Material Plan, dated April 2009, lists and rates some of the most frequently encountered hazardous materials in the county. Please refer to that plan for the full listing of hazardous material fixed facilities. Those identified as high hazard can be found in Table 4.51. For security reasons the specific locations have not been listed in this plan. Table 4.51 High Hazard Hazardous Materials39 Materials Aluminum Sulfate Methanol Sodium Hydrosulfide Sulfuric Acid Sodium Hydroxide Phenol Chlorine Sulfur Dioxide Sodium Chlorate Sodium Chloride Anhydrous Sodium Sulfide Sodium Solution Waste Acetone Acetylene Anhydrous Ammonia Hydrogen Sulfide Ethanol LP Gas Butane Magnesium Scrap Herbicide Compounds Potassium Permanganate Hydrochloric Acid Ammonium Nitrate Antiknock Compounds Fuel Oils Propane Electrolyte Acid Phosphoric Fertilizer 39 Gallatin County Hazardous Material Plan, 2009. July 2012 4-89 A major fuel pipeline, the Yellowstone Pipeline, runs through northern Gallatin County, just north of Bozeman and Interstate 90. This pipeline transports refined petroleum products between Billings, MT and Spokane, WA. Should an explosion or leak occur on this pipeline, a large hazardous material release of the fuel and/or fumes could result and threaten the population and property. The most likely locations for a transportation-related hazardous materials release are on Interstate 90, Highway 191, or the active railways. Interstate 90 crosses northern Gallatin County in an east-west direction. This Interstate is widely used by vehicles transporting hazardous materials. Highway 191, south of the Interstate, connects Interstate 90 to Yellowstone National Park and is used as a shipping route to the park and points south into Wyoming and Idaho. For the most part, the railroad parallels Interstate 90, except for where it goes through the City of Bozeman. Only the east-west railroad sections are currently active with an additional short section used south through Bozeman, and one north to Trident and south again to Willow Creek. The railroad is owned and operated by Montana Rail Link. If a transportation-related release occurred near populated areas or water supplies, serious human impacts could result. HazMat Team Response to Yellowstone National Park, 7/4/10.40 History Historically, incidents have been small enough to prevent a large evacuation and long-term impacts however, hazardous materials incidents do occur in Gallatin County. Small Hazmat type calls occur regularly, usually involving a petroleum product such as diesel fuel or gasoline. Probability 40 Photo courtesy of Patrick Lonergan. July 2012 4-90 The probability of a hazardous materials release can only be realistically assessed qualitatively. The history of events in Gallatin County is moderate with sporadic events over the past 20 years, none of which have resulted in a disaster declaration. The exposure, however, is high with Interstate 90 and an active railroad passing within close proximity to critical facilities and Bozeman. The probability of a significant release is considered greater along the railroad since the US Department of Transportation regulates hazardous materials on commercial vehicles, has specific regulations regarding mixed loads and amounts, and provides enforcement, whereas, the railroad system does not have as extensive control measures. Therefore, the probability of a hazardous materials release that would require a significant government and public response is considered high. Mapping As with many hazards, the degree of risk to a particular area is hard to quantify, however, data layers from our 2005 HAZUS earthquake study were used to visually show the areas that have concentrations of hazardous materials and areas that would most likely be affected in a hazardous materials incident. Of course, the entire County is at some risk for a hazardous material release, but the areas shown in Map 4.52 are at the greatest risk given their proximity to areas where hazardous materials can typically be found. July 2012 4-91 Map 4.52 Hazardous Materials Transportation Buffer Zones Associated Hazards and Other Factors %defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc %defgc%defgc%defgc %defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc%defgc %defgc %defgc / Legend Highways %defgc Haz_mat 0 10 20 30 405 Miles July 2012 4-92 Hazardous material releases can be accidental or intentional. Accidental causes can be due to a ground, air, or railroad accident. Almost any other hazard event may also lead to a hazardous material release. Destruction of a facility or transportation infrastructure may lead to a hazardous material release. Examples include earthquake, flooding, wildfire, avalanche, landslide, dam failure, severe thunderstorm, tornado, wind, structure fire, or even a volcano. Intentional releases may be related to terrorism or a domestic disturbance. A hazardous material release, if severe enough, could lead to civil unrest, a fiery explosion, or utility failure. Hazardous material releases could very likely aggravate almost any other hazard. Vulnerability Critical Facilities The buffers around the highways and railways represent the areas that have an enhanced risk for a hazardous materials release. Two buffer zones were established, 0.25 miles and 0.50 miles from the route. These buffer zones were chosen based on minimum evacuation radii that would be established for a typical hazardous substance release. Of course, the actual evacuation zone for an event is highly dependent on many factors including wind speed, wind direction, material released, and quantity released. Like many of the other hazards, the hazard area in an actual event will not involve the entire area at risk, but more likely only a small section of the identified area, and therefore, a small percentage of the critical facilities. Based on these buffer zones, it was determined that a good portion of the Gallatin County critical infrastructure is at greatest risk. Since the Interstate 90 and the Montana Rail Link corridor hauls more hazardous materials than the other transportation routes, the highest risk can be assumed to be in that area. Potential Losses Generally the only structures affected by a hazardous materials release are the structures that house the material on a daily basis. Fortunately, unless an explosion is present with the release, structures are typically not damaged in a hazardous materials release. A large scale release in an area with numerous structures will put those structures and their contents at risk, however the structure itself will generally make it through the event unharmed. Potential Population Impacts The population impacts from a hazardous materials release are more significant than the potential structure losses. Depending on the material, the health impacts to the public can be long and short term. Should a release occur in Bozeman, the population impacts would be much greater than if one occurred in a more rural area. In a hazardous materials release, those in the immediate area would have little to no warning, whereas, the population in the dispersion path may have some time to evacuate, depending on the weather conditions and material released. July 2012 4-93 Many factors will determine the true hazard area in a transportation related hazardous material release. The worst case scenario would be a release along the railroad near any of the populated areas. Given this scenario, a conservative estimate of 1,000 structures could be directly affected and/or evacuated. With an estimated 2.5 people per structures (and possibly higher for downtown Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan or Three Forks), approximately 2,500 people would be at greatest risk in such an event. Impact of Future Development Much of the future development currently occurring is off of the major road and rail networks in the county. The potential, however, does exist for development of agricultural lands bordering the highways and railroad, particularly in the unincorporated parts of Gallatin County. Very few restrictions are in place to prevent development in these areas. Data Limitations Understanding when, where, and what substances are mostly likely to be released in a hazardous materials incident is the greatest limitation in analyzing this hazard. Hazardous substances pass through Gallatin County with such regularity and without incident that fully describing how a release may occur and what population and structures may be affected is not possible. A study of the number and types of hazardous materials passing through Gallatin County would help better frame this profile. A complete database of hazardous materials sites would also allow for more accurate estimates of potential losses and population impacts. Digital mapping of the fixed facilities would allow for a more detailed analysis of vulnerabilities from a release at those facilities. July 2012 4-94 RAILROAD ACCIDENT Description Montana Rail Link (MRL) operates on a railroad that crosses Gallatin County in an east-west direction, roughly parallel to Interstate 90, and passes through the Cities of Bozeman, Belgrade, and Three Forks and the Town of Manhattan. MRL is a Federal Railroad Administration Class II regional railroad with more than 900 miles of track serving 100 stations in the states of Montana, Idaho and Washington, and employs approximately 1,000 people. They operate a fleet of more than 2,100 freight cars and 120 locomotives.41 MRL connects with Spokane, Washington, the Burlington Northern & Santa Fe Railway (BNSF) at Laurel and Helena, Montana, the Montana Western Railway at Garrison, Montana, and the Union Pacific Railroad at Sandpoint, Idaho. 2011 Train derailment in Bozeman.42 History The railroads in Gallatin County were operated by Burlington Northern Railroad from 1970 to 1987 until Montana Rail Link assumed control of the route through southern Montana. Table 4.53 outlines the accidents in Gallatin County documented by the Federal Railroad Administration since 1975. 41 Montana Rail Link, http://www.montanarail.com/, 2005. 42 Photo courtesy of Travis Munter. July 2012 4-95 Table 4.53 Railroad Accidents in Gallatin County, Montana43 Date Reportable Damage $ Casualties 2-13-2005 151,000 0 06-02-2005 35,000 1 Inj 10-12-2004 10,000 0 08-15-2002 450,000 0 11-08-2002 262,000 2 Inj 02-27-2001 18,000 0 03-31-2001 23,000 0 10-25-2001 24,227 0 07-09-1998 30,000 2 Inj 12-05-1997 25,500 0 09-02-1996 11,600 0 10-29-1996 52,000 0 02-08-1993 170,000 0 06-28-1993 22,500 0 10-08-1992 15,000 0 01-09-1991 23,000 0 03-16-1991 288,000 0 07-05-1991 155,000 0 12-29-1991 7,300 0 01-26-1989 8,000 0 03-09-1989 79,500 0 05-26-1989 18,000 0 11-08-1989 202,000 0 05-22-1988 12,500 0 05-25-1988 56,000 0 07-19-1988 11,000 0 10-05-1988 35,500 0 12-19-1988 251,700 0 09-01-1987 743,970 2 Inj 05-09-1986 70,000 0 04-13-1985 58,500 0 11-24-1985 25,500 0 11-30-1985 162,000 0 12-14-1985 191,800 0 06-10-1984 5,400 0 08-05-1984 97,200 0 10-24-1984 34,000 0 12-04-1984 25,300 0 11-02-1983 13,200 0 09-01-1982 72,000 0 01-28-1981 5,720 0 43 Federal Railroad Administration, Office of Safety Analysis, http://safetydata.fra.dot.gov/officeofsafety/Default.asp. July 2012 4-96 05-14-1979 45,350 0 09-10-1979 10,588 0 02-18-1978 4,000 0 02-26-1978 12,740 0 04-20-1978 21,340 0 07-15-1978 3,800 0 12-07-1978 2,850 0 03-10-1977 9,100 0 03-28-1977 3,540 0 05-18-1977 24,700 0 07-05-1977 41,040 0 03-12-1976 19,500 0 06-06-1976 25,000 0 09-25-1976 6,674 0 10-22-1976 7,250 0 12-27-1976 17,895 0 02-22-1975 68,122 0 06-07-1975 52,515 0 06-13-1975 18,484 0 07-01-1975 4,550 0 10-09-1975 24,015 0 Probability Since 1975, 52 railroad accidents have occurred resulting in $4,478,558 in track and equipment damages and 7 injuries. Using this historical record, on average, a railroad accident occurs 1.73 times per year (52 accidents / 30 years) in Gallatin County. The average accident causes $86,126.00 ($4,478,558 / 52 accidents) in damage. Obviously incidents do not follow averages, and therefore, the maximum and minimum damages over the past 30 years should be noted. Another important consideration in a railroad accident is the release of hazardous materials. The historical record shows this has only occurred twice in the past thirty years, but the potential certainly exists as demonstrated by the number of hazardous material cars involved, but not damaged, in railroad accidents. Mapping Map 4.54 shows the railroad sections in Gallatin County. Map 4.54 Railroads in Gallatin County, Montana July 2012 4-97 Associated Hazards and Other Factors A railroad accident is hazardous to those in close proximity to and inside the train due to physical impacts, but others may be threatened by associated hazards. A hazardous material release is the most probable associated hazard. Those effects are described in detail in the hazardous materials hazard profile. Almost any other hazard could also cause a railroad accident. Weather conditions can damage tracks or affect the locomotives and cars. For example, strong winds can blow cars from the tracks; winter storms, cold weather, and hot weather can warp tracks; avalanches, landslides, and flooding can cover rail routes; hail and tornadoes can damage cars; and fog and smoke can limit visibility. An earthquake or volcano could also damage tracks or equipment. The possibility that a train could be used in a terrorist attack cannot be ruled out. All of these associated hazards increase the probability of a railroad accident occurring. Vulnerability / Legend Railway_segment 0 10 20 30 405 Miles July 2012 4-98 Critical Facilities Gallatin County critical facilities are not to be considered at enhanced risk from a railroad accident. Certainly, the associated hazards may threaten the facilities, but the accident itself should not directly impact the critical facilities. All critical facilities and vulnerable populations are more than 250 feet from the tracks. Potential Losses Most of the losses from a railroad accident are paid for by Montana Rail Link or their insurance. Potential community losses are most probable to infrastructure such as roadways. Should a derailment occur on a state, county, or city road, that road could be unusable for several days or weeks. Staff time in coordinating the clean up or response could be considered additional railroad accident losses. In terms of structures that could be impacted by a derailment, a limited amount are within 250 feet of the railroad. Most accidents would probably only impact one or two structures Damages could vary in the hundreds of thousands of dollars depending on the structure or structures impacted. Potential Population Impacts Since the active railroad in Gallatin County no longer serves passengers, the potential for high casualties from the impact of a railroad accident is low. The potential certainly exists, however, for casualties to railroad workers and those in the general vicinity, especially since the trains pass through the center of three towns. The potential for large population impacts is considered low, however, particularly when considering the historical record of only 7 injuries over the past 30 years and 52 accidents. July 2012 4-99 Impact of Future Development Future development should have little to no impact on the railroad accident hazard. Most development is occurring in areas away from the railroad’s immediate impact area. Little restrictions are in place, however, to prevent such development. Data Limitations The data on the railroad hazard in Gallatin County is based on Federal Railroad Administration records. This data is sufficient in calculating the occurrence over the past 30 years. Where the data is not useful is in determining the probability of a large-scale accident involving hazardous materials. An analysis of the current railroad weaknesses, numbers and types of materials transported, and areas with the greatest potential for derailment would enhance this profile. Such information, however, would not necessarily be included in a public plan. July 2012 4-100 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WIND and TORNADOES Description Thunderstorms in Montana develop when moisture in the air rises, often from daytime ground heating, an unstable atmospheric condition, synoptic front, or by terrain uplift, and cools higher in the atmosphere, condensing into rain droplets or ice crystals. The cloud grows as these conditions continue and the atmospheric instability allows. Lightning can be produced, with or without rain, as a charge builds up in the cloud. With the right atmospheric conditions, updrafts and downdrafts form in the thunderstorm structure. These strong updrafts and downdrafts can produce hail, strong straight-line winds, and even tornadoes. Hail is produced when a super cooled droplet collects a layer of ice and continues to grow, sustained by the updraft. Once the hail stone cannot be held up any longer by the updraft, it falls to the ground. Gallatin County regularly has small, pea-sized hail, but larger stones to the size of quarters or larger are possible. Strong straight-line winds, sometimes stronger than tornadoes at over 100 mph, occur when air is carried into a storm updraft, cools rapidly, and comes rushing to the ground. Cold air is denser than warm air, and therefore, wants to fall to the surface. On warm summer days, when the cold air can no longer be supported up by the storm’s updraft, the air crashes to the ground in the form of strong winds. These winds are forced horizontally when they reach the ground and can cause significant damage. Tornadoes form when the right amount of shear is present in the atmosphere and causes the updraft and downdraft to rotate. A funnel cloud is the rotating column of air extending out of a cloud base, but not yet touching the ground. The funnel cloud does not become a tornado until it touches the ground. Once in contact with the surface, it can create great damage over a small area. Although rare, they can and do occur in south central Montana. A severe thunderstorm is defined by the National Weather Service as a thunderstorm that produces wind gusts at or greater than 58 mph (50 kts), hail ¾” or larger, and/or tornadoes. Although not considered severe by definition, lightning and heavy rain can also accompany thunderstorms. The severe conditions are often the events that can directly cause widespread damage. Strong winds, hail, and tornadoes have capability to damage structures, infrastructure, crops, livestock, and vehicles. July 2012 4-101 2008 Summer Hail Storm at Montana State University.44 History Hail and strong winds frequently occur in thunderstorms in Gallatin County as documented in Tables 4.55 45 Table 4.55 Severe Weather Recorded in Gallatin County, Montana Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD 1 GALLATIN 6/7/1958 1530 Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0 0 2 GALLATIN 6/7/1958 1530 Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0 0 3 GALLATIN 6/7/1958 1530 Hail 1.25 in. 0 0 0 0 4 GALLATIN 6/7/1958 1530 Hail 1.25 in. 0 0 0 0 5 GALLATIN 7/9/1958 1610 Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 6 GALLATIN 7/9/1958 1610 Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 7 GALLATIN 6/3/1959 1503 Tstm Wind 62 kts. 0 0 0 0 8 GALLATIN 6/19/1959 1945 Tstm Wind 72 kts. 0 0 0 0 9 GALLATIN 6/15/1960 1035 Tornado F1 0 0 3K 0 10 GALLATIN 5/13/1964 1600 Tstm Wind 63 kts. 0 0 0 0 11 GALLATIN 7/14/1964 1600 Tstm Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0 0 12 GALLATIN 6/16/1965 1315 Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0 0 13 GALLATIN 8/11/1965 1610 Hail 1.50 in. 0 0 0 0 14 GALLATIN 7/21/1967 1630 Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0 0 15 GALLATIN 6/13/1968 1200 Tstm Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0 0 16 GALLATIN 6/26/1970 1747 Tstm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0 0 17 GALLATIN 6/27/1970 1705 Tstm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0 0 18 GALLATIN 6/27/1970 1730 Tstm Wind 92 kts. 0 0 0 0 19 GALLATIN 6/27/1970 1735 Tstm Wind 0 kts. 0 0 0 0 20 GALLATIN 6/27/1970 1803 Tstm Wind 59 kts. 0 0 0 0 44 Photo courtesy of Patrick Lonergan. 45 National Climatic Data Center, Local Storm Reports, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html. July 2012 4-102 Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD 21 GALLATIN 7/29/1970 1638 Tstm Wind 73 kts. 0 0 0 0 22 GALLATIN 8/3/1971 1809 Tstm Wind 59 kts. 0 0 0 0 23 GALLATIN 6/29/1973 1736 Tstm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0 0 24 GALLATIN 8/13/1973 2000 Tstm Wind 55 kts. 0 0 0 0 25 GALLATIN 8/23/1973 1900 Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0 0 26 GALLATIN 8/23/1973 1900 Tstm Wind 60 kts. 0 0 0 0 27 GALLATIN 8/7/1975 1030 Hail 1.50 in. 0 0 0 0 28 GALLATIN 9/15/1977 1700 Tstm Wind 75 kts. 0 0 0 0 29 GALLATIN 7/6/1981 1300 Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 30 GALLATIN 7/6/1983 1700 Tstm Wind 0 kts. 0 0 0 0 31 GALLATIN 7/7/1983 1650 Tstm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0 0 32 GALLATIN 8/6/1984 1708 Tstm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0 0 33 GALLATIN 8/24/1984 1700 Tstm Wind 54 kts. 0 0 0 0 34 GALLATIN 7/18/1985 1745 Tstm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0 0 35 GALLATIN 8/23/1986 1742 Tstm Wind 56 kts. 0 0 0 0 36 GALLATIN 7/15/1987 1800 Tstm Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0 0 37 GALLATIN 5/13/1988 1530 Tstm Wind 55 kts. 0 0 0 0 38 GALLATIN 6/21/1988 1530 Hail 2.25 in. 0 0 0 0 39 GALLATIN 7/28/1989 1847 Tstm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0 0 40 GALLATIN 9/17/1989 1700 Tstm Wind 57 kts. 0 0 0 0 41 GALLATIN 8/18/1990 1500 Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 42 GALLATIN 5/18/1991 1800 Tstm Wind 0 kts. 0 0 0 0 43 GALLATIN 6/23/1991 2000 Hail 1.25 in. 0 0 0 0 44 GALLATIN 6/29/1992 1500 Tstm Wind 0 kts. 0 0 0 0 45 MTZ001>068 2/23/1994 400 Winter Storm N/A 0 0 5.0M 0 46 MTZ001>068 5/15/1994 1530 Thunderstorm Winds 0 kts. 0 0 500K 0 47 Nr Trident 5/17/1994 1115 Tornado F0 0 0 0 0 48 Near Bozeman 6/3/1994 1715 Lightning N/A 0 1 0 0 49 Bozemen 7/5/1994 1940 Thunderstorm Winds 0 kts. 0 0 50K 0 50 MTZ001>068 8/1/1994 0 Drought N/A 0 0 0 0 51 MTZ001>068 8/1/1994 0 Wildfire N/A 0 0 5.0M 0 52 MTZ001>068 8/22/1994 1815 High Winds 60 kts. 0 0 0 0 53 Montana 9/1/1994 0 Forest Fires N/A 0 0 5.0M 500K 54 Bozeman 8/6/1995 1355 Thunderstorm Winds 51 kts. 0 0 0 0 55 Bozeman 8/26/1995 1733 Thunderstorm Winds 53 kts. 0 0 0 0 56 Bozeman 6/18/1997 5:00 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 57 Bozeman 7/2/1997 2:55 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0 58 Bozeman 7/2/1997 3:18 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0 59 Bozeman 9/11/1997 5:30 PM Hail 0.88 in. 0 0 0 0 60 Bozeman 5/26/1998 2:00 PM Tstm Wind 65 kts. 0 0 0 0 61 Three Forks 7/2/1998 8:00 PM Tstm Wind 55 kts. 0 0 0 0 62 Bozeman 7/3/1998 6:00 PM Hail 1.75 in. 0 0 0 0 63 Three Forks 7/4/1998 3:08 PM Hail 1.75 in. 0 0 0 0 64 Bozeman 7/4/1998 3:44 PM Hail 1.75 in. 0 0 0 0 65 Bozeman 7/11/1998 2:30 PM Tstm Wind/hail 55 kts. 0 0 0 0 July 2012 4-103 Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD 66 Manhattan 8/16/1998 2:10 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 67 Bozeman 6/17/1999 4:30 PM Lightning N/A 1 0 0 0 68 (wey)west Yellowston 6/18/1999 7:30 PM Hail 1.50 in. 0 0 0 0 69 Bozeman 6/19/1999 4:15 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 70 Belgrade 6/21/1999 2:10 PM Hail 1.50 in. 0 0 0 0 71 Maudlow 7/3/2000 1:00 PM Tstm Wind/hail 0 kts. 0 0 25K 0 72 Belgrade 8/15/2000 3:00 PM Wild/forest Fire N/A 0 3 160K 0 73 Maudlow 8/18/2000 3:20 PM Hail 1.50 in. 0 0 0 0 74 Belgrade 9/1/2000 12:00 AM Wild/forest Fire N/A 0 3 160K 0 75 MTZ055 11/29/2000 5:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 76 MTZ055 12/9/2000 8:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 77 MTZ055 12/15/2000 11:55 AM Blizzard N/A 0 0 0 0 78 MTZ055 12/25/2000 4:00 PM Avalanche N/A 0 1 0 0 79 MTZ055 12/29/2000 8:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 80 MTZ055 1/20/2001 12:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 81 MTZ055 2/5/2001 12:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 82 MTZ055 2/19/2001 4:00 PM Avalanche N/A 0 1 0 0 83 MTZ055 3/27/2001 6:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 84 MTZ055 3/27/2001 8:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 85 MTZ055 4/8/2001 9:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 86 MTZ055 4/20/2001 3:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 87 MTZ055 4/20/2001 3:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 88 MTZ055 4/30/2001 8:10 PM High Wind 57 kts. 0 0 6K 0 89 Bozeman 6/2/2001 1:10 PM Tstm Wind 61 kts. 0 0 0 0 90 MTZ055 6/13/2001 2:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 91 MTZ055 6/13/2001 12:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 92 MTZ055 6/13/2001 12:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 354K 0 93 Maudlow 7/13/2001 2:10 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 94 Maudlow 7/20/2001 4:42 PM Hail 1.50 in. 0 0 0 0 95 MTZ055 11/25/2001 6:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 96 MTZ055 11/28/2001 2:30 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 97 MTZ055 12/13/2001 5:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 98 MTZ055 12/28/2001 3:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 99 MTZ008 - 015 - 055 1/21/2002 6:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 100 MTZ008 - 012>013 - 015 - 050>051 - 053>055 1/26/2002 4:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 101 MTZ012>015 - 044 - 046 - 049>052 - 054>055 2/23/2002 4:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 102 MTZ012 - 015 - 050>053 - 055 2/28/2002 12:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 103 MTZ008>009 - 014>015 - 048 - 055 3/5/2002 12:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 104 MTZ009>010 - 012>015 - 044>046 - 048>050 - 052 - 054>055 5/22/2002 10:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 105 Big Sky 5/30/2002 8:00 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 106 Bozeman 6/29/2002 12:15 PM Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0 0 107 Big Sky 6/29/2002 12:40 PM Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0 0 108 Three Forks 8/4/2002 3:40 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 109 MTZ014>015 - 052 - 055 10/29/2002 9:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 110 MTZ008 - 012 - 015 - 050>051 - 054>055 1/14/2003 12:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 July 2012 4-104 Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD 111 MTZ014>015 - 052>055 1/22/2003 5:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 112 MTZ009 - 014>015 - 048 - 055 2/1/2003 12:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 113 MTZ008 - 011 - 047 - 055 2/24/2003 8:00 AM Extreme Cold/wind Chill N/A 0 0 0 0 114 MTZ011 - 014 - 047 - 055 3/12/2003 12:00 PM Flood N/A 0 0 750K 0 115 MTZ015 - 053>055 3/26/2003 6:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 116 MTZ012 - 050>051 - 054>055 4/18/2003 3:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 117 MTZ008 - 015 - 055 5/30/2003 5:00 AM Flood N/A 0 0 0 0 118 MTZ055 6/1/2003 12:00 AM Flood N/A 0 0 0 0 119 Trident 7/8/2003 10:15 AM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 120 Belgrade 8/5/2003 7:44 PM Tstm Wind 54 kts. 0 0 0 0 121 West Yellowstone 8/20/2003 6:00 PM Wildfire N/A 0 0 0 0 122 West Yellowstone 9/1/2003 12:00 AM Wildfire N/A 0 0 0 0 123 West Yellowstone 9/3/2003 3:17 PM Dust Devil N/A 0 0 3K 0 124 MTZ052 - 055 - 055 11/11/2003 3:00 PM High Wind 53 kts. 0 0 0 0 125 MTZ055 12/6/2003 10:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 126 MTZ008>009 - 014 - 048 - 055 12/13/2003 9:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 127 MTZ012>013 - 015 - 047 - 050>051 - 054>055 12/26/2003 8:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 128 MTZ008>009 - 012>014 - 047>048 - 050 - 052>055 1/1/2004 12:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 129 (wey)west Yellowston 7/4/2004 6:25 PM Hail 1.25 in. 0 0 0 0 130 Belgrade 8/4/2004 5:08 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0 0 131 MTZ012 - 050 - 054>055 11/24/2004 11:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 132 MTZ008 - 012 - 015 - 050>055 12/29/2004 6:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 133 MTZ008>009 - 055 1/8/2005 10:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 134 MTZ014>015 - 052>055 1/13/2005 12:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 135 MTZ009 - 012>015 - 044 - 046>047 - 051 - 054>055 3/17/2005 9:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 136 MTZ012 - 015 - 050>055 4/18/2005 2:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 137 MTZ014>015 - 052 - 054>055 4/27/2005 6:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0 0 138 MTZ008 - 014>015 - 052>055 11/8/2005 9:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 139 MTZ015 - 055 1/15/2006 5:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 140 MTZ015 - 055 1/31/2006 8:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 141 MTZ012 - 050>051 - 055 3/19/2006 10:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 142 MTZ008>009 - 014 - 048 - 052 - 055 4/6/2006 7:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 143 Logan 5/21/2006 5:00 AM Flood N/A 0 0 0 0 144 MTZ009 - 015 - 054>055 5/27/2006 4:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0 0 145 Bozeman 6/4/2006 3:37 PM Tstm Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0 0 146 Bozeman 7/12/2006 3:19 PM Tstm Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0 0 147 Bozeman 7/15/2006 5:41 PM Tstm Wind 56 kts. 0 0 0 0 148 Bozeman 8/16/2006 3:39 PM Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0 0 149 MTZ055 12/13/2006 14:00 PM High Wind 52 kts. 1 0 0K 0K 150 MTZ055 12/27/2006 22:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 151 MTZ055 1/6/2007 12:20 PM High Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 152 Bozeman 2/5/2007 16:00 PM Flood N/A 0 0 0K 0K 153 MTZ055 2/16/2007 12:15 AM High Wind 54 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 154 MTZ055 2/23/2007 10:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 155 Bozeman 3/12/2007 10:00 AM Flood N/A 0 0 0K 0K July 2012 4-105 Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD 156 MTZ015 - 055 4/2/2007 5:23 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 157 Bozeman 5/10/2007 13:40 PM Hail 0.88 in. 0 0 0K 0K 158 Matthews 5/10/2007 13:40 PM Hail 0.88 in. 0 0 0K 0K 159 Bozeman 5/13/2007 14:17 PM Hail 1.25 in. 0 0 0K 0K 160 Bozeman 5/13/2007 14:20 PM Hail 1.25 in. 0 0 0K 0K 161 Bozeman 5/13/2007 14:25 PM Hail 1.50 in. 0 0 0K 0K 162 Bozeman 5/23/2007 10:30 AM Funnel Cloud N/A 0 0 0K 0K 163 MTZ015 - 052 - 055 6/6/2007 3:31 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 164 Bozeman 6/20/2007 16:30 PM Thunderstorm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 3K 0K 165 Belgrade 7/7/2007 16:41 PM Thunderstorm Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 166 Belgrade 8/10/2007 13:56 PM Thunderstorm Wind 53 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 167 Big Sky 8/10/2007 14:00 PM Thunderstorm Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 168 Bozeman 8/10/2007 14:09 PM Thunderstorm Wind 59 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 169 MTZ015 - 055 11/19/2007 13:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 170 MTZ015 - 055 12/2/2007 21:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 171 MTZ015 - 055 12/2/2007 21:00 PM High Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 172 MTZ055 12/24/2007 6:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 173 MTZ055 1/4/2008 13:56 PM High Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 174 MTZ055 1/4/2008 20:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 175 MTZ055 1/19/2008 21:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 176 MTZ055 1/27/2008 15:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 177 MTZ055 3/4/2008 8:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 178 MTZ015 - 055 4/7/2008 19:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 179 MTZ055 4/7/2008 19:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 180 MTZ008 - 015 - 055 4/15/2008 11:00 AM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 181 Gallatin Gateway 5/20/2008 18:20 PM Thunderstorm Wind 56 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 182 Bozeman 5/23/2008 12:00 AM Flood N/A 0 0 0K 0K 183 Bozeman 5/24/2008 16:30 PM Flood N/A 0 0 0K 0K 184 Bozeman 6/10/2008 10:50 AM Hail 0.88 in. 0 0 0K 0K 185 MTZ008 - 015 - 052 - 055 6/11/2008 12:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 186 Clarkston 6/22/2008 16:49 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K 187 Bozeman 7/18/2008 14:55 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K 188 Bozeman 7/22/2008 14:11 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K 189 Bozeman 7/22/2008 15:15 PM Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0K 0K 190 Bozeman 7/22/2008 16:04 PM Flash Flood N/A 0 0 0K 0K 191 Bozeman 7/22/2008 17:05 PM Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0K 0K 192 Bozeman 7/22/2008 17:15 PM Hail 1.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K 193 Bozeman 7/22/2008 17:20 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K 194 Bozeman 7/22/2008 17:20 PM Thunderstorm Wind 58 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 195 Belgrade 7/22/2008 17:22 PM Thunderstorm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 196 Bozeman 7/22/2008 17:25 PM Hail 0.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K 197 Bozeman 7/22/2008 17:25 PM Hail 1.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K 198 Big Sky 8/9/2008 18:03 PM Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0K 0K 199 MTZ008 - 015 - 050 - 055 10/10/2008 12:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 200 MTZ055 11/13/2008 12:57 PM High Wind 53 kts. 0 0 0K 0K July 2012 4-106 Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD 201 MTZ050 - 055 12/13/2008 5:00 AM Blizzard N/A 0 0 0K 0K 202 MTZ055 3/5/2009 13:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 203 MTZ055 3/15/2009 23:56 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 204 MTZ055 4/14/2009 11:37 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 205 MTZ055 4/23/2009 21:15 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 206 Belgrade 6/25/2009 17:01 PM Thunderstorm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 207 MTZ015 - 055 11/11/2009 16:42 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 208 MTZ014 - 050 - 054 - 055 12/12/2009 12:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 209 MTZ055 1/4/2010 20:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 210 MTZ055 1/22/2010 8:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 211 MTZ055 3/18/2010 18:00 PM Heavy Snow N/A 0 0 0K 0K 212 MTZ055 3/30/2010 17:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 213 MTZ055 4/6/2010 12:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 214 MTZ055 4/8/2010 13:35 PM High Wind 55 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 215 MTZ055 4/28/2010 6:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 216 MTZ055 5/3/2010 13:15 PM High Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 217 MTZ008 - 015 - 052 - 055 5/5/2010 14:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 218 Bozeman 6/30/2010 13:41 PM Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0K 0K 219 Bozeman 6/30/2010 13:47 PM Hail 1.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K 220 Belgrade 6/30/2010 14:12 PM Hail 2.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K 221 Bozeman 6/30/2010 15:00 PM Hail 1.50 in. 0 0 0K 0K 222 Bozeman 6/30/2010 15:00 PM Hail 2.00 in. 0 0 0K 0K 223 Gallatin Gateway 6/30/2010 15:00 PM Hail 1.25 in. 0 0 0K 0K 224 Bozeman 6/30/2010 15:03 PM Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 60.0M 0K 225 Bozeman 6/30/2010 15:05 PM Hail 1.75 in. 0 0 0K 0K 226 Three Forks 7/27/2010 15:05 PM Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0K 0K 227 Gallatin Gateway 7/31/2010 17:00 PM Hail 1.50 in. 0 0 0K 0K 228 Bozeman 8/1/2010 16:35 PM Thunderstorm Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 229 MTZ055 10/26/2010 13:07 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 230 MTZ055 11/18/2010 6:15 AM High Wind 52 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 231 MTZ055 11/18/2010 8:35 AM High Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 232 MTZ055 11/18/2010 9:35 AM High Wind 55 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 233 MTZ015 - 055 11/18/2010 12:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 234 MTZ055 11/18/2010 21:24 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 235 MTZ008 - 015 - 050 - 052 - 055 11/22/2010 6:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 236 MTZ008 - 015 - 055 11/23/2010 6:59 AM Blizzard N/A 0 0 0K 0K 237 MTZ009 - 012>015 - 048 - 050>052 - 055 2/6/2011 19:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 238 MTZ009 - 048 - 055 2/16/2011 4:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 239 MTZ009 - 055 2/22/2011 3:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 240 MTZ055 3/10/2011 16:04 PM High Wind 65 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 241 MTZ011 - 045 - 047 - 051 - 055 3/21/2011 8:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 242 MTZ051 - 055 4/18/2011 17:00 PM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 243 MTZ009 - 048 - 052 - 054 - 055 4/29/2011 4:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 244 MTZ008 - 052 - 055 5/9/2011 3:00 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 245 MTZ055 5/14/2011 19:36 PM High Wind 54 kts. 0 0 0K 0K July 2012 4-107 Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD 246 MTZ008 - 015 - 054 - 055 5/29/2011 3:24 AM Winter Storm N/A 0 0 0K 0K 247 Logan 6/6/2011 15:55 PM Hail 1.50 in. 0 0 0K 0K 248 Bozeman 6/12/2011 19:05 PM Hail 1.00 in. 0 0 0K 0K 249 Big Sky 6/23/2011 16:04 PM Thunderstorm Wind 51 kts. 0 0 0K 0K 250 (bzn)gallatin Fld Bo 7/25/2011 17:35 PM Thunderstorm Wind 50 kts. 0 0 0K 0K Despite a lack of significant tornadoes in Gallatin County’s weather records, in nearby Yellowstone National Park just to the south, an F4 tornado (207-260 mph) formed on July 21, 1987. The Teton- Yellowstone Tornado, as it was named, was 1.5 miles (2.5 km) wide and traveled for 24 miles (39.2 km). The tornado crossed the Continental Divide at an elevation of 10,072 feet (3.070 m).46 Tornadoes like the Teton-Yellowstone Tornado are rare but possible in places like Gallatin County, Montana. More likely in Gallatin County are smaller, shorter lived, yet damaging tornadoes. Probability The history of hail and strong thunderstorm winds in Gallatin County shows that both are fairly frequent. The data presented in the history is based on reports received by the National Weather Service in Great Falls, MT. Often, unless the event is noticed by a trained spotter or emergency official, the event will go unreported. Therefore, many events may not have been reported or noted by observers and the statistics represent only those events that have been documented. Mapping Severe thunderstorms can occur anywhere in Gallatin County. Due to the sporadic population centers in Gallatin County, mapping the locations of historical events would show where events have been spotted and reported from, but would not necessarily depict the hazard level from severe thunderstorms. Infrequently traveled areas may have a larger concentration of severe thunderstorm events, but because of the low population, events have gone unreported. Therefore, the risk is assumed to be the same countywide. Associated Hazards and Other Factors Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can be associated with other hazards. Lightning can spark wildfire or urban fires, especially when coupled with strong winds, and heavy rains can cause flash flooding. These hazards can also contribute to ground or aircraft accidents if they interfere with travel. Fortunately, most pilots are trained to recognize hazardous weather conditions such as severe thunderstorms. Particularly severe thunderstorms can also lead to widespread power and communications failures. Vulnerability 46 Fujita, T. Theodore. The Teton-Yellowstone Tornado of 21 July 1987. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 117, No. 9, pp. 1913-1940. March 24, 1989. July 2012 4-108 Critical Facilities All critical facilities and vulnerable populations are considered to have the same vulnerability to severe thunderstorms, unless specific reinforcements have been made to protect them from strong winds. Infrastructure, namely power lines, are primarily vulnerable to high winds and falling trees. Power systems are the most likely infrastructure to fail during a severe thunderstorm. Communications towers may also topple under strong winds or large hail. Infrastructure at a reduced risk from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes include those utilities located underground or within reinforced structures. Potential Losses With the entire county at risk from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, estimates of damages are hard to determine. Realistically, an event involving a tornado or severe thunderstorm would most likely significantly affect only a small area. If that area, however, was in a developed part of the county, 10- 20 homes could be damaged. Vehicles damaged by hail or falling debris would be additional losses. Potential losses could also include losses to agriculture. Livestock and crops can be significantly damaged by large hail and strong winds, and therefore, result in diminished profits. Potential Population Impacts The National Weather Service in Great Falls, MT warns for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes when recognized on Doppler radar or by other means. The warnings are broadcast over NOAA weather radio and may be transmitted over television scrolls and cable networks such as the Weather Channel. Some events have 15-20 minutes warning time and others have little to no warning. Depending on the effectiveness of the warning reaching the population, those at greatest risk may or may not receive the warning and take precautionary measures. A NOAA weather radio transmitter is located in Bozeman, and those with specially built receivers can be alerted to weather hazards rapidly. The numerous campgrounds in the National Forests become particularly vulnerable populations if the warnings are not received. Depending on the significance of the storm, much of the population can be at risk if they do not take appropriate action. Impact of Future Development Future development will likely have little effect on the vulnerability to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The risk is assumed to be uniform countywide, and therefore, the location of development does not increase or reduce the risk necessarily. Development and population growth may in fact improve the television and radio technology available to residents, and therefore, improve the warning capabilities. Data Limitations Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can be such isolated events that the vulnerability to a particular area can be hard to determine. Weather data is often limited by the observations taken, and severe July 2012 4-109 thunderstorm and tornado events are only recorded if reported to the National Weather Service. An in- depth study specific to Gallatin County would need to be conducted to further develop this hazard profile. Historic lightning data may also pinpoint the areas that receive the most thunderstorms. 2010 Wind Event in West Yellowstone47 47 Photo courtesy of Bob Radcliffe, Civil Air Patrol July 2012 4-110 TERRORISM, CIVIL UNREST, and VIOLENCE Description Terrorism, civil unrest, and violence are human caused hazards that are intentional and often planned. Terrorism, both domestic and international, is a violent act done to try and influence government or the population of some political or social objective. Terrorist acts can come in many recognized forms or may be more subtle using nontraditional methods. The primary recognized forms of terrorism are chemical, explosive, biological, radiological, and cyber. Chemical terrorism is the use of chemical agents to poison, kill, or incapacitate the population. Chemical agents can be broken into five different categories: nerve agents, vesicants, cyanide, pulmonary agents, and incapacitating agents. Known nerve agents include tabun, sarin, soman, GF, and VX, and can cause a variety of conditions affecting the central nervous system either through vapor or liquid form. Vesicants cause blisters on the skin and can damage eyes, airways, and other tissues and organs. Vesicant agents include sulfur mustard, Lewisite, and phosgene oxime. Cyanides can be in solid salt or volatile liquid format, or when combined with acid, a vapor or gas. Their absorption can cause everything from nausea to death, depending on the amount absorbed. Pulmonary agents such as phosgene and perfluroroisobutylene cause pulmonary edema usually hours after exposure. Incapacitating agents produce reversible disturbances with the central nervous system and cognitive abilities and include the agent BZ.48 Terrorism using explosive and incendiary devices includes bombs and any other technique that creates an explosive, destructive effect. Bombs can take many forms from a car bomb to a mail bomb to any suspicious package. They can be remotely detonated using a variety of devices or directly detonated in the case of a suicide bomb. Bioterrorism is the use of biological agents to infect the population or animals with disease. The agents/diseases that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention consider the highest priority due to their threat to the population and national security include anthrax, botulism, plague, smallpox, tularemia, and viral hemorrhagic fevers.49 Bioterrorism could also be used against our livestock population and agricultural plants. The following are select animal diseases identified by the USDA as a severe threat to livestock and human health: Avian Influenza, Exotic Newcastle Disease, Nipah, Hendra, Eastern Equine Encephalitis, Venezuelan Equine Encephalomyelitis, Foot and Mouth Disease, Rift Valley Fever, Rinderpest, African Swine Fever, and Classical Swine Fever. Those plant diseases identified by the USDA as a severe threat to plants are: Soybean Rust, Southern Bacteria Wilt, Plum Pox, Downy Mildew of Corn, Brown Stripe Downey Mildew of Maize, Potato Wart, Bacterial Leaf Streak of Rice, Citrus Greening, and Pierce’s Disease.50 Radiological terrorism involves the use of radiological dispersal devices or nuclear facilities to attack the population. Exposure to radiation can cause radiation sickness, long-term illness, and even death. Terrorism experts fear the use of explosive and radiological devices in the form of a “dirty bomb” to 48 Sidell, Frederick R., M.D. Chemical Agent Terrorism. http://www.nbc-med.org/SiteContent/MedRef/OnlineRef/Other/chagter.html. 49 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, http://www.cdc.gov/. 50 US Government Accountability Office. Homeland Security: Much Is Being Done to Protect Agriculture from a Terrorist Attack, but Important Challenges Remain. March 2005. July 2012 4-111 attack the population. As with chemical and biological events, radiological incidents present contamination challenges for first responders. Cyber terrorism is the attack or hijack of the information technology infrastructure that is critical to the U.S. economy through financial networks, government systems, mass media, or other systems. Any cyber attack that creates national unrest or instability would be considered cyber terrorism. Civil unrest and violence typically occur on a smaller scale when large groups, organizations, or distraught individuals take action with potentially disastrous or disruptive results. Civil unrest can be the product of another event that creates panic in the community. Violence can be small scale, such as domestic violence, or larger and require significant government response, as is profiled in this plan. Montana has traditionally attracted activist/extremist individuals and groups because of its low population and large geographic area. Groups active in Montana vary from white supremacists to single issue groups, such as environmental extremists. These groups are attracted to the state and many of them view Montana as their “home" or safe haven. Because of these views, they commit their illegal activities outside of the state. An example of this would be the Unabomber, Ted Kaczynski. Kaczynski advocated the destruction of technology and the protection of the environment. The Unabomber was responsible for sixteen bombings and three deaths around the United States. Another example, The World Church of the Creator, which is a white supremacist group with a national following, advocates a “Racial Holy War” against minorities. This group has their national meeting in Superior, Montana once a year. Members of this group have been responsible for numerous homicides in the United States. Groups such as the Phineas Priesthood of Spokane, WA have used western Montana as a place to hide. The anti-government group, the Freemen, conducted an eighty-one day standoff with law enforcement in eastern Montana. At the conclusion it was determined they were a “refuge” for individuals around the country involved in criminal anti-government activity. Several of these individuals had spoken about military type action against the current government. Many other organizations besides these that have the potential to use violence exist in parts of Montana and across the country. Recently, the National Alliance, the largest neo-Nazi organization in the United States, has conducted leafleting campaigns in Southwest Montana and is trying to establish a presence in our communities. This organization has been tied to violent acts throughout the country. Eco-terrorism is a growing domestic terrorism concern that has been noted in the western United States. The FBI defines eco-terrorism as the use or threatened use of violence of a criminal nature against innocent victims or property by an environmentally-oriented, sub national group for environmental-political reasons, or aimed at an audience beyond the target, often of a symbolic nature. Organizations identified by the FBI as having terrorist cells include the Animal Liberation Front (ALF) and the Earth Liberation Front (ELF). Although supporting organizations generally advocate peaceful demonstrations, the FBI estimates that the ALF/ELF have committed more than 600 criminal acts in the United States from 1996-2001, resulting in damages in excess of $43 million. The most destructive acts committed by the ALF/ELF involve arson. Many of these attacks have occurred in nearby states July 2012 4-112 such as Washington, Oregon, Utah, Idaho, and Colorado51. One of the goals of these organizations is to preserve undeveloped lands. With the natural resources that exist in Gallatin County and the potential for future development, this type of terrorism is considered the most likely in Gallatin County. Special Response Team during 2009 Presidential visit.52 History Fortunately, Gallatin County has not been the target of any major terrorist attacks. Some small local level events have required a minimal local government response. Probability With very little experience and data locally on this hazard, a specific probability for future terrorism, civil unrest, and violence is hard to determine. Based on the historical record and the terrorism threat present for the area, the probability of a large scale terrorism, civil unrest, or violence event is considered low. Mapping The City of Bozeman is the most populous part of Gallatin County. This area, with close proximity to hazardous material facilities and government buildings, could be considered the area at greatest risk for terrorism. Domestic and international terrorism can be hard to predict, and therefore, specific targets are not easily identified. National parks are also considered potential terrorist targets, and therefore, Yellowstone National Park to the south puts Gallatin County communities, particularly West Yellowstone, in close proximity to this potential hazard area. Associated Hazards and Other Factors 51 Testimony of James F. Jarboe, Domestic Terrorism Section Chief, Counterterrorism Division, FBI Before the House Resources Committee, Subcommittee on Forests and Forest Health. The Threat of Eco-Terrorism. February 12, 2002. 52 Unknown photographer. July 2012 4-113 Any hazard that can be “created” can be the result of terrorism, civil unrest, or intentional violence. For example, dam failure can be the result of a terrorist act of compromising the dam. Other examples include communicable disease, aviation, ground, and railroad accidents, hazardous materials release, utility failure, wildfire, and urban fire. All of these hazards could be the result of a terrorist act if intentionally triggered. Vulnerability Critical Facilities Critical facilities in Gallatin County would be considered to be at greatest risk from terrorism, civil unrest, and violence. Often, terrorists target facilities that are highly important for government services and community stability or are particularly vulnerable. Threat data is not specific enough to identify what facilities are most vulnerable, and therefore, all critical facilities are considered to have the same risk countywide. Those facilities with barriers, security, and other forms of protection could be considered to be at lower risk. Most facilities in Gallatin County, however, do not have those protections. Potential Losses Residential structure losses are possible from terrorism, civil unrest, and violence but are not likely. Often the losses are at critical facilities or to the population. Looting, however, can be commonly found in association with these types of events. Therefore, this hazard places both the population and property at risk. Urban areas, places of public gathering, and important government or economic assets are generally going to be the areas of greatest risk. Should an event occur, the losses would likely be moderate. Potential Population Impacts The effects of terrorism, civil unrest, and violence are usually felt by the population. The greatest risk is to human lives during times of unrest. Terrorists typically try to make a dramatic impact that will generate media interest. Attacking the population through a large loss of life is a common tactic. Therefore, the greatest vulnerability from terrorism is to human life and the economy. Impact of Future Development Development should have little to no impact on the terrorism, civil unrest, and violence threat. The exception would be the increase in population and the associated increase of potential losses to life and property within the county. With larger communities around, however, development should have little effect in this regard. Given the goals of eco-terrorists, however, future development could serve as the basis for an event over controversial development. Data Limitations July 2012 4-114 Since terrorism, civil unrest, and violence are such isolated events and little history exists in Gallatin County, the probability and potential losses are difficult to quantify. Therefore, generalities have been made to estimate where potential losses could be. Site specific surveys would allow for an analysis of weaknesses of critical facilities, infrastructure, and vulnerable populations to terrorism, civil unrest, and violent incidents. July 2012 4-115 UTILITY OUTAGE Description Utility outages can be caused by almost any of the hazards described in this risk assessment, but they can also occur because of human error or equipment failures. Electric, gas, telephone, and water are all important services that could become problematic should a long term outage occur. Electricity is used to power many homes in Gallatin County, to pump wells, and run heating systems, even if electricity is not the primary fuel source. Therefore, if electricity was lost for a long period of time, many residents could be without heat, water, and other appliances. Vulnerable populations needing powered medical equipment would be additionally threatened by a long term power outage. Natural gas is used as a heat source for many residents in the northern half of Gallatin County. Should that utility be lost in the winter months, the concerns associated with extended cold could be significant. Telephone services are most critical for 911 communications, and the rapid dispatch of needed emergency services. Cell phones would also be lost if telephone service went down. Many of the larger communities in Gallatin County have public water supplies. Should those services be lost, many citizens would be without water and possibly sewer services. Any of these disruptions can be handled in a short time frame, but can quickly become problematic in long term situations. History Gallatin County has not had any significant utility outages that can be considered disastrous. Probability Due to the lack of major historical events, the probability of a major utility outage in Gallatin County is considered low. As growth occurs, however, the ability of many of the utility systems to keep up with the increased demand may increase the probability of a long-term outage. Mapping Many of the public utility features in Gallatin County have yet to be mapped and those that have been mapped are withheld for system security purposes. Mapping is maintained by the entity managing the utility. Associated Hazards and Other Factors Utility failures can be caused by many of the hazards described in these profiles. Anything from an earthquake to a terrorist event could cause utilities to fail. Events that utility systems are particularl y vulnerable to include earthquakes, floods, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, winter storms, wildfires, and dam breaks. July 2012 4-116 Vulnerability Critical Facilities Critical facilities are vulnerable to utility outages. Some critical facilities do have back-up generators in case of an electricity outage. Most emergency services facilities, to include the 911 dispatch center and the emergency operations center have back up power. Others, however, may have limited functionality following an event due to a utility failure. Potential Losses Utility failures typically do not impact structures directly. A long-term utility outage during extended cold could result in a large number of frozen water pipes inside homes and businesses. Most often, economic losses occur during long-term utility outages. These losses would be most felt by businesses that require electricity or water to operate. Potential Population Impacts Without services such as heated shelters, food, and drinking water, the population could suffer. Significant casualties would not be expected since these services could be available in a nearby community. If not, necessary sheltering and feeding provisions would be made to protect the population. Significant relocations of vulnerable populations and disruption of normal lifestyles would be expected. Impact of Future Development Future development is not expected to have significant impact on this hazard. Increased populations add to the challenges of managing a long term utility outage but would not increase the damages necessarily. Data Limitations Since long term utility outages are not a normal event for Gallatin County, understanding the specific problems and concerns of this hazard are the greatest limitation. Studies of each of the critical facilities would allow for a more in-depth discussion of their vulnerabilities. July 2012 4-117 VOLCANO Description Active volcanoes are not known to be present in Gallatin County, but past eruptions have affected the county and possibility of an eruption in nearby Yellowstone National Park is always present. The active volcanic areas in the Cascade Range such as Mount St. Helens, Mount Rainer, and Mount Hood are to the west of Gallatin County and are within the reasonable range of ash fall with the usual upper atmospheric wind patterns. Theoretically, these volcanoes could deposit ash several inches thick over Gallatin County and any large eruption could change the weather patterns experienced globally. The Yellowstone Caldera, one of the world’s largest active volcanic systems, has produced several giant volcanic eruptions in the past few million years, as well as many smaller eruptions and steam explosions. Although no eruptions of lava or volcanic ash have occurred for many thousands of years, future eruptions are likely. Over the next few hundred years, hazards will most likely be limited to ongoing geyser and hot-spring activity, occasional steam explosions, and moderate to large earthquakes. To better understand Yellowstone’s volcano and earthquake hazards and to help protect the public, the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Utah, and Yellowstone National Park formed the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, which continuously monitors activity in the region.53 If a large caldera-forming eruption were to occur at Yellowstone, its effects would be worldwide. Thick ash deposits would bury vast areas of the United States, and injection of huge volumes of volcanic gases into the atmosphere could drastically affect global climate. Fortunately, the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low. Any renewed volcanic activity at Yellowstone would most likely take the form of non-explosive lava eruptions. An eruption of lava could cause widespread havoc in the Park, including fires and the loss of roads and facilities, but more distant areas such as Bozeman would probably remain largely unaffected.53 53 US Geological Survey. Fact Sheet 2005-3024, Steam Explosions, Earthquakes, and Volcanic Eruptions – What’s in Yellowstone’s Future?. 2005. July 2012 4-118 Bunsen Peak, Yellowstone volcano remnant.54 History In May 1980, the eruption of Mount St. Helens sent ash high into the atmosphere. Approximately a half an inch of ash fell across Gallatin County. Historical studies have shown that ash from Glacier Peak 11,200 years ago and Mount Mazama 6,600 years ago also fell in Gallatin County.11 The Yellowstone region has produced three exceedingly large volcanic eruptions in the past 2.1 million years. In each of these cataclysmic events, enormous volumes of magma erupted at the surface and into the atmosphere as mixtures of red-hot pumice, volcanic ash (small, jagged fragments of volcanic glass and rock), and gas that spread as pyroclastic (“fire-broken”) flows in all directions. Rapid withdrawal of such large volumes of magma from the subsurface then caused the ground to collapse, swallowing overlying mountains and creating broad cauldron-shaped volcanic depressions called “calderas.”53 54 Photo courtesy of USGS. ID. Stacy, J.R. 665. July 2012 4-119 Probability Volcanic eruptions are rare events when considered in comparison to other hazards measured on the 100-year scale. The Montana Hazard/Vulnerability Analysis from 1987 estimates the return period of substantial volcanic ash fallout in Gallatin County to generally once every 5,000-8,000 years.11 Scientists evaluate natural-hazard levels by combining their knowledge of the frequency and the severity of hazardous events. In the Yellowstone region, damaging hydrothermal explosions and earthquakes can occur several times a century. Lava flows and small volcanic eruptions occur only rarely - none in the past 70,000 years. Massive caldera-forming eruptions, though the most potentially devastating of Yellowstone’s hazards, are extremely rare - only three have occurred in the past several million years. U.S. Geological Survey, University of Utah, and National Gallatin Service scientists with the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) see no evidence that another such cataclysmic eruption will occur at Yellowstone in the foreseeable future. Recurrence intervals of these events are neither regular nor predictable.53 Figure 4.61 shows the probability of the various events that can occur in Yellowstone National Park. Figure 4.61 USGS Graphic Depicting Recurrence Intervals for Geological Events in Yellowstone National Gallatin53 Mapping The areas affected by volcanic eruptions are dependent on the type of eruption and the prevailing wind direction. In an actual event, models would be used to predict the areas that would receive ash and other effects from the volcano. Therefore, mapping hazard areas would be broad generalizations and will not be completed here. The county is assumed to have the same risk countywide for a Cascade Range eruption and decreasing risk from south to north for a Yellowstone eruption. July 2012 4-120 Associated Hazards and Other Factors Volcanoes, a geological feature, are closely related to earthquake activit y. Often eruptions are preceded by earthquake activity as magma moves below the surface. The two events are usually closely linked and monitored. Other factors that become important during a volcanic eruption include wind speed, direction, and rainfall. The wind speed and direction will dictate when and where ash falls. Dry ash is manageable, but when combined with rainfall, the ash becomes glue-like and much more difficult to control. Vulnerability Critical Facilities All critical facilities are at risk from volcanic eruptions. The impact on the facilities will depend on the amount of ash that falls and the ability to remove it. Significant amounts of ash have the potential to clog air systems and shut down facilities. Given enough wet, heavy ash, the potential exists for roofs to fail. Infrastructure exposed to the ash fall, such as power systems, could be brought down by the ash as well. The removal of ash from government facilities and infrastructure could potentially create costs beyond the community’s capabilities. Therefore, all critical facilities and vulnerable populations are vulnerable to ash fall. Potential Losses During Mount St. Helens’ 1980 eruption, the greatest costs came from the difficult task of removing volcanic ash. The greatest threat is not necessarily to people or residences but to property such as vehicles and equipment. The volcanic dust is corrosive to metals and without proper removal can certainly cause damages to public and private property. In a Yellowstone eruption, the potential for heavy, wet ash could threaten structures by collapsing roofs. The probability of an event of this magnitude is very low. The economy, particularly the tourist economy, could be severely affected should an eruption occur or be imminent. Potential Population Impacts Light ash fall does not significantly impact the population if those with respiratory sensitivities remain indoors. Ash fall conditions that exist for several days, however, could lead to significant health problems for many in Gallatin County. The extremely rare major Yellowstone eruption could lead to deaths to those close to the Park from pyroclastic flows and extreme amounts of falling ash. The degree of population impacts will greatly vary depending on the type of event. Impact of Future Development Future development will have little to no effect on the volcano hazard. Any new development will be exposed to the volcano hazards of Gallatin County and increase the population and property values at risk. July 2012 4-121 Data Limitations Volcanic eruptions that affect Gallatin County are so extremely rare that documenting the potential impacts and probability is very limited. Continued study of the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic areas will hopefully allow scientists, and therefore emergency managers, to better understand this hazard. July 2012 4-122 WILDFIRE Description Wildland fires are a part of nature in the mountainous, forested areas and arid grasslands of Montana. Gallatin County has both broad areas of National Forests and dry open fields. Forest fires can travel quickly through the crowns of trees or spread along the forest floor. Grass fires are common in non- irrigated fields and open areas scattered with sage brush and native grasses due to the arid climate during almost any season but winter. Both types of wildfires are often aggravated by the exceptionally windy conditions in parts of the county. A wildland fire can be categorized as either an uncontrolled fire in a forested/heavily vegetated area or in a grass/brush area. Both types of wildfires have the potential to destroy structures and natural resources while producing heavy amounts of smoke. Wildfires can be caused by any flame source but are most often triggered by lightning, human carelessness, arson, or train sparks. Once triggered, the ambient conditions dictate whether the fire will spread. Moist, cool, calm conditions or low fuels will suppress the fire, whereas dry, warm, windy conditions or heavy fuels will contribute to fire spread. The natural environment has evolved to live with fire. New growth occurs in a matter of a few years and some species require fire to grow. Problems with wildfire occur when combined with the human environment. People and structures near wildfires are threatened unless adequately protected through evacuation or mitigation. Most structures are flammable, and therefore, are threatened when wildfire approaches. In addition, a significant loss of life could occur with residents who do not evacuate, firefighters, and others who are in the wildfire area. Infrastructure such as electric transmission lines, fuel tanks, and radio transmission towers are not often equipped to withstand the heat from a wildfire. Timber resources, animal habitats, and waterways can all be damaged leading to negative economic and environmental impacts. The area where human development meets undeveloped, vegetative lands is called the wildland/urban interface (WUI). Gallatin County is regularly threatened by wildfires because of the terrain, climate conditions, and fuels present. Gallatin County has a large area of government owned lands, national forests in particular. Parts of the Gallatin National Forest, and Yellowstone National Park are within the Gallatin County borders. The US Bureau of Land Management manages many parcels of land within the county as well. Fuels in Gallatin County range from dense timber stands in varying terrain to native grasslands. Douglas fir, lodge pole pine, Engelmann spruce, sagebrush, rough fescue, and other grasses make up many of the wildland fuels in the county. Periods of drought, disease, insect infestations, and low fire activity or mitigation may all lead to an increase in hazardous fuels. History Gallatin County has a long history of wildfires from small to large. The extent of damages often depends on the proximity to the human interface, fire spread rates, and the effectiveness of suppression and mitigation measures. The history of wildfires can be difficult to compile because the various July 2012 4-123 firefighting entities involved and a variety of recordkeeping measures over the years. Below are listed several of the critical / severe wildfires. 1988. The Greater Yellowstone Fires of 1988, including some areas extending into Gallatin County, covered 2.3 million acres, employed an estimated 25,000 firefighters, and cost nearly $120 million for fire suppression. One firefighter and one pilot were killed and structure losses were estimated at $3 million, mostly within Yellowstone National Park.55 August 2001. Lightning ignited the Fridley Fire on August 19 near Fridley Creek in the Gallatin National Forest. The fire doubled in size on August 22 and displayed "extreme" behavior on August 23, when high winds caused it to double in size again. Montana Executive Order 20-01, issued on August 25, 2001, declared a state of emergency in Gallatin County and other locations across the state and mobilized state resources and the National Guard to fight the wildfires. On August 31, three members of a firefighting helicopter crew were killed on a maintenance flight when a bucket line tangled with a rotor, causing the helicopter to crash three miles south of Emigrant in Park County. The Fridley Fire was contained on September 13, 2001. In all, 26,373 acres burned from this fire and firefighting costs totaled over $11 million with 1,261 personnel, 50 pieces of heavy equipment, and 14 helicopters used. Fortunately, no structures were lost.56 This was a significant fire for Gallatin County because the City of Bozeman Water Shed, the drinking water supply, was threatened. Probability The probability of wildland fires to occur in Gallatin County is considered to be high. As Gallatin County continues to grow and more and more of the population begins to recreate in our national forests, the potential for fire starts increases. Combine this with the normal natural causes of fire such as lightning, and Gallatin County can expect to see significant fires in the future. Associated Hazards and Other Factors As if a raging wildfire isn’t bad enough, the charred ground and thick smoke plumes it produces can create other hazards. The heavy smoke produced by a wildfire can cause unhealthy air conditions that may affect those with respiratory problems and otherwise healthy people. The air conditions are often monitored and alerts may be issued. Smoky conditions can also lead to poor visibility and an increased probability of ground transportation or aircraft accidents. Besides air pollution, water pollution may also occur during and after a wildfire. Many watersheds in wildland areas serve as the public water supplies for area communities. Should a significant wildfire pass through the area, pollution of the watershed can occur. With vegetation removed and the ground seared from a wildfire, the area also becomes more prone to flash floods and landslides because of the ground’s reduced ability to hold water. 55 Yellowstone Gallatin Net, http://www.yellowstoneGallatinnet.com/history/fires.php. 56 Pacific Biodiversity Institute, http://www.pacificbio.org/Projects/Fire2001/fridley.pdf. July 2012 4-124 Vulnerability Critical Facilities Critical facilities set in wildland areas can be particularly problematic during fir es. Fortunately, none of the critical facilities identified for Gallatin County interface with the wildlands. Electric and communications infrastructure, however, including the major regional electric transmission lines and public safety communications sites, can be found in forested, wildland areas. This infrastructure is highly vulnerable to wildland fire without mitigation. Potential Losses Wildfires have the greatest potential to substantially burn National Forests and National Park acreage, however, private residences become threatened when the fire enters the wildland/urban interface. Gallatin County has many wildland/urban interface areas that may be threatened should a wildfire encroach. The Community Wildfire Protection Plan, currently being written, will have an accurate assessment of the hazard areas and potential losses from this hazard. A wildfire damage factor is rather difficult to determine because any actual losses will be highly dependent on the fire characteristics and its location. Not all areas will be affected by one wildfire. Losses in the area of the WUI fire, however, could have a high loss rate. Although the primary concern is to structures and the interface residents, most of the costs associated with fires, come from firefighting efforts in suppression costs. Additional losses to natural resources, water supplies, air quality, and the economy are also typically found. As past events have shown, infrastructure such as power transmission lines can be threatened. Wildfires can also have a significant impact on the regional economy with the loss of timber, natural resources, recreational opportunities, and tourism, all of which are of particular importance in Gallatin County. Potential Population Impacts Using the estimate of 79 structures affected in a major wildfire from the Potential Losses section, roughly 150 people would live in the affected area (79 structures x 1.9 people/structure). In many cases, residents can be evacuated before the fire moves into their area. Some residents, however, may choose to remain in the evacuated area, or a rapidly spreading fire may not allow enough time for a formal evacuation. Firefighters can be particularly threatened during wildfires. Advances in firefighter safety and technology have improved firefighting efforts, however, the potential for loss of life and injuries still exists. For these reasons, the impact on the population can be considered moderate. Impact of Future Development The wildland/urban interface is a very popular place to live as national trends show. More and more homes are being placed in this interface, particularly in Montana, and Gallatin County is no exception. Development in the hazard areas has increased in recent years and has amplified the vulnerabilities in the unincorporated parts of Gallatin County significantly. Regulating growth in these areas is a July 2012 4-125 delicate balance between protecting private property rights and promoting public safety. The county growth policy recognizes the wildfire threat and emphasizes defensible space, inspection of new development, water supplies, fuels mapping, and Firewise type programs. These recommendations may be incorporated into the Gallatin County Subdivision Regulations in the future. The Gallatin County Fire Council is currently working toward revised fire regulations. Data Limitations The wildland/urban interface can be defined in many ways to include areas of flammable grasses or steep slopes. For the purposes of this analysis, areas with the potential for crown fires defined the interface. A more detailed study, using field analysis techniques, would allow for better WUI and potential loss estimates. Fuels mapping would further define the areas at greatest risk. A comprehensive, countywide wildland fire digital historical database encompassing all firefighting agencies that includes data on start location, cause, area burned, suppression costs, and damages would prove highly beneficial in advancing the assessment of this hazard. Gallatin County is currently writing a Community Wildfire Protection Plan that will better outline the wildfire hazard. July 2012 4-126 WINTER STORMS and EXTENDED COLD Description Snow storms and bitterly cold temperatures are common occurrences in Gallatin County and generally do not cause any problems as residents are used to winter weather and are prepared for it. Snow falls regularly during all seasons, except summer, and roads become slippery quite often. Residents understand that this is part of living in Montana. Sometimes, however, blizzards can occur and overwhelm the ability to keep roads passable. Heavy snow and ice events, particularly late season events, have the potential to bring down power lines and trees. The extreme wind chills, often dropping below zero, may harm residents if unprotected outdoors or if heating mechanisms are disrupted. Table 4.73 lists the various National Weather Service winter weather warning criteria for Gallatin County. Table 4.73 NWS Winter Weather Warning Criteria Warning Type Criteria Blizzard Warning Heavy snow or blowing snow (visibility less than 1/4 of a mile) and sustained winds or frequent wind gusts of 35 mph or more are expected for a period of several hours. Heavy Snow Warning Snowfall of at least 6 inches in 12 hours or 8 inches in 24 hours is expected. In the mountains above 6000 feet, snowfall of at least 8 inches in 12 hours or 12 inches in 24 hours. Winter Storm Warning Heavy snow and windy conditions, not meeting the blizzard warning criteria, are imminent or have a very high probability of occurring. A winter storm warning indicates a decent chance that the event will pose a threat to life and/or property. Winter Storm Watch Blizzard conditions, heavy snow, significant freezing rain, and/or heavy sleet are possible but its occurrence, location, and/or timing are still uncertain. Winter storm watches are typically issued 12 to 48 hours before an event is expected to begin. Winter Weather Advisory Winter weather is imminent or has a very high probability of occurrence, but the expected hazard does not meet warning criteria. Conditions are expected to cause significant inconvenience and, if caution is not exercised, could lead to situations that may threaten life and/or property. Examples of winter weather advisory conditions include visibility 1/4 mile or less, an ice accumulation which makes surfaces hazardous, and/or snow of 2-5" in 12 hours. Winter Storm Outlook Alert the public of the potential for a significant winter storm, in a 48 hour or beyond time span. Wind Chill Warning Wind chill temperatures of -40ºF or colder and winds of 10 mph or greater are expected for 6 hours or more. Wind Chill Advisory Wind chill temperatures of -20ºF or colder and winds of 10 mph or greater are expected for 6 hours or more. July 2012 4-127 History Table 4.55 in the severe storms profile shows the winter weather records for Gallatin County. Probability The probability of winter storms each season is almost a certainty. The probability of an event that overwhelms the community capabilities, though, is harder to determine. To date, Gallatin County has not had any winter weather events that have lead to a Presidential Disaster Declaration, but such an event is certainly possible and cannot be overlooked. Since significant winter weather is a common occurrence, the probability of a disastrous event is considered moderate. Mapping Across the county, Gallatin County is vulnerable to winter weather. Therefore, the risk assumed to be the same countywide. Associated Hazards and Other Factors Winter storms and extended cold can be associated with many other hazards. In particular, ground transportation accidents are associated. Interstate 90 and other roadways can become hazardous very quickly during winter storms. Such incidents normally involve passenger vehicles, however, an incident involving a commercial vehicle transporting hazardous materials or a vulnerable population such as a school bus is also possible. Any hazard that causes a utility outage, such as an earthquake, during an extended cold period would present sheltering and cold weather exposure challenges. When combined with wind, blizzard conditions can quickly result. Urban firefighting efforts may also be more challenging during extreme cold temperatures due to frozen water lines. Heavy snow can alleviate drought conditions and improve forest health, thus decreasing the wildfire threat, but in doing so can often increase the probability of avalanches and riverine flooding during springtime. Vulnerability Critical Facilities All critical facilities are assumed to have the same vulnerability from winter storms and cold temperatures. Those facilities with back-up generators are better equipped to handle a winter storm situation should the power go out. Otherwise, all are designed to withstand winter storms but may not be able to provide heat if electricity service is lost. Potential Losses Snow in Gallatin County generally does not cause the communities to shut down or disrupt activities. Occasionally, though, extreme winter weather conditions can cause problems. The most common incident in these conditions are motor vehicle accidents due to poor road conditions. These losses are July 2012 4-128 usually covered by insurance. Losses to structures are usually minimal. Most structures are built to withstand reasonable snow loads in this region. Potential Population Impacts Since winter storms and cold spells typically do not cause major structural damage, the greatest threat to the population is the potential for utility failure during a cold spell. Although cold temperatures and snow are normal for Gallatin County, extremes can exist that would go beyond the capabilities of the community to handle. Should the temperatures drop below -15 for several weeks or several feet of snow fall in a short period of time, the magnitude of frozen water pipes and sewer lines or impassable streets could result in disastrous conditions for many people. If power lines were to fail due to snow/ice load, winds, or any other complicating factor, the situation would be compounded. In the event power or other utilities were disrupted, many homes could be without heat or water. With temperatures frequently dropping below zero in a typical winter, an event where heating systems failed could send many residents to shelters for protection. Other residents may try to heat their homes through alternative measures, and thereby, increase the chance for structure fires or carbon monoxide poisoning. Sheltering of community members would present significant logistical problems when maintained over a period of more than a day. Transportation, communication, energy (electric, natural gas, and vehicle fuels), shelter supplies, medical care, food availability and preparation, and sanitation issues all become exceedingly difficult to manage in extreme weather conditions. Local government resources could be quickly overwhelmed. Mutual aid and state aid might be hard to receive due to the regional impact of this kind of event. Impact of Future Development Future development should have little to no impact from winter storms and extended cold weather. The most significant challenge may be, as homes go up in more remote parts of the county, to access those residents should sheltering or emergency services be needed in an extreme event. Data Limitations Since major winter weather incidents occur frequently, but typically do not cause damages, the biggest data limitation is in understanding the magnitude of an event that begins to cause problems and the associated impacts that challenge the local government. Records outlining the winter weather conditions (snow depth, temperature, wind, snowfall rates, water content, and duration) and the problems (number of accidents, condition of roadways, and services needed) would increase the local understanding of this hazard. July 2012 4-129 Risk Assessment Summary This risk assessment represents an approximate history and estimated vulnerabilities to the communities from the hazards identified. As with any assessment involving natural or man-made hazards, all potential events may not be represented here and an actual incident may occur in a vastly different way than described. This assessment, however, will be used, where possible, to minimize damages from these events in the future. Every type of event is different, ranging from population to property to economic impacts. Incidents have different probabilities and magnitudes even within hazards. For example, a small earthquake will be different than a large earthquake and a moderate flood will be different from both of those. In an attempt to rate hazards and prioritize mitigation activities, a summary of the impacts from an event is presented in Table 4.74. For more information on these determinations, see the individual hazard profiles. Table 4.74 Summary of Hazards for Gallatin County, Montana Hazard Probability of Major Disaster Property Impact Population Impact Economic Impact Future Development Impact Relative Overall Risk Wildfire High High High Moderate Moderate High Earthquake High High High High Moderate High Hazardous Materials Release High Moderate High High Moderate High Flooding Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Communicable Disease and Bioterrorism Moderate Low High High Low Moderate Drought Moderate Moderate Low High Moderate Moderate Winter Storms and Extended Cold Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Utility Outage Moderate Low High Moderate Low Moderate Severe Thunderstorms Wind and Tornadoes Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Ground Transportation Incident Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Dam Failure High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Terrorism Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Railroad Accident Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Volcano Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Urban Conflagration Moderate High Moderate High Moderate Moderate Avalanche and Landslide Moderate Low Moderate Low Low Low Aviation Accident Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Low , Civil Unrest, and Violence Low Moderate low Moderate Low Low July 2012 5-1 5. Mitigation Strategy Hazard mitigation, as defined by the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000, is any sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate the long-term risk to human life and property from hazards. The development of a mitigation strategy allows the community to create a vision for preventing future disasters, establish a common set of mitigation goals, prioritize actions, and evaluate the success of such actions. The Gallatin County Mitigation Strategy is based on the results of the risk assessment and recommendations by knowledgeable community members through the All Hazards All Discipline Group and public meetings. The overarching mission of this mitigation strategy is to: Reduce or prevent losses from disasters. Rather than wait until a disaster occurs, Gallatin County, the City of Bozeman, the City of Belgrade, the City of Three Forks, the Town of West Yellowstone, and the Town Of Manhattan, have developed this strategy to move in a proactive direction in disaster prevention. All losses cannot be entirely mitigated, however, some actions can be taken, as funding and opportunities arise, that may reduce the impacts of disasters and eventually save taxpayers’ money. The mitigation actions were developed based on direct input from the community and prioritized through a multi-step process. Goals, Objectives, and Proposed Actions Goal 1: Prevent losses from wildfires. Objective 1.1: Reduce private losses in the wildland/urban interface. Promote Firewise type programs. Require defensible space and inspection of new development in the wildland urban interface. Revise subdivision regulations with a better focus on defensible space/maintenance and water supply requirements in the wildland/urban interface. Reduce fuels along ingress and egress roadways. Conduct fuels reduction along utility right-of-ways. Objective 1.2: Increase understanding of the wildfire hazard areas. Develop fuels mapping for public and private lands. Develop and maintain a Community Wildfire Protection Plan. Develop a centralized, countywide wildfire history database. Objective 1.3: Assist property owners in completing mitigation measures. Conduct individual WUI wildfire assessments. Encourage homeowners to reduce fuels around structures and create a fire defensible space. July 2012 5-2 Goal 2: Reduce potential losses from earthquakes. Objective 2.1: Prevent earthquake losses to critical facilities, vulnerable populations, and infrastructure. Tie down/secure objects in critical facilities and vulnerable population locations that could fall during an earthquake. Retrofit critical government facilities for earthquakes. Inspect key bridges for seismic stability. Anchor or stabilize electric transformers and generators for seismic motion during maintenance and new installations. Install expansion joints in underground utilities during new or replacement construction. Objective 2.2: Minimize private earthquake losses. Educate home and business owners on simple earthquake retrofits. Survey commercial structures for earthquake stability and recommend retrofits. Create a financial incentive program for major earthquake retrofits in the priority hazard areas. Goal 3: Reduce damages from flooding. Objective 3.1: Reduce losses to private property from flooding. Implement security measures at the dams to include early warning systems. Educate the public on flood insurance. Mitigate damages to critical infrastructure in the 100 year flood plain. Objective 3.2: Maximize the protection of life and property through government resources and services. Remove woody debris, as needed to protect public safety, but not excessively as such debris is important to ecological health. Consider where more restrictive regulations or prohibition of development in the floodplain may be necessary. Map floodplain areas and join the National Flood Insurance Program in the City of Belgrade, Town Of Manhattan, City of Three Forks. Objective 3.3: Provide the public with information and means to prevent private flood losses. Establish financial incentives for landowners to remove, modify, or replace obsolete and non- functioning flood control and bank stabilization structures. Conduct an analysis on the feasibility of a floodplain and floodway buyout and/or relocation program. Educate the public on flood insurance. Objective 3.4: Improve understanding of the flood hazard and mitigation measures. Secure digital flood plain mapping for all substantial rivers and streams in Gallatin County. Study alternative flood mitigation measures. Goal 4: Reduce losses from a transportation or hazardous materials accident. July 2012 5-3 Objective 4.1: Allow for emergency traffic and evacuation routes during a hazardous materials or ground transportation incident. Develop an emergency transportation plan that considers key roadways and intersections. Improve mapping of hazardous materials fixed site locations and common transportation routes. Goal 5: Prevent significant loss of life and illness from communicable disease and bioterrorism Objective 5.1: Improve ability to quickly identify communicable disease outbreaks or a bioterrorism incident Maintain surveillance system to rapidly identify communicable disease incidents and outbreaks Develop laboratory network contacts Objective 5.2: Increase ability to provide communicable disease information during an outbreak or bioterrorism incident Maintain system to provide frequent and effective communications to health care providers and other partners during a communicable disease incident or outbreak Maintain system to provide adequate public communication during an outbreak or significant disease event Objective 5.3: Reduce mortality and morbidity related to communicable disease Ensure communicable disease investigation and follow-up to contain communicable disease and limit mortality and morbidity Revise Chempack plan as needed Improve immunization rates for vaccine-preventable diseases Goal 6: Promote all-hazard mitigation measures. Objective 6.1: Ensure critical infrastructure is operational during disasters. Identify, prioritize, and harden infrastructure from damages during disasters. Install or designate back-up systems for critical infrastructure, including emergency communications systems. Install an uninterruptible power supplies on all Gallatin County Public Safety Communications Systems. Objective 6.2: Improve warning capabilities. Become a National Weather Service Storm Ready Community in the incorporated cities and towns. Develop an Emergency Alert System plan. Put NOAA Weather Radios transmitter in the West Yellowstone area and receivers in critical facilities and schools. Put Early warning on Hyalite Dam Develop evacuation plans for all communities. Objective 6.3: Increase emergency management and disaster service capabilities to prevent additional losses in a disaster. Develop a sheltering plan specific to utility failures. Install generators at critical facilities and vulnerable population locations. July 2012 5-4 Objective 6.4: Improve digital data for assessing all hazards. Develop GIS data that can be used with FEMA’s HAZUS loss estimated models specifically the flood module. July 2012 5-5 Action Prioritization Each of the proposed projects has value, however, time and financial constraints do not permit all of the proposed actions be implemented immediately. By prioritizing the actions, the most critical, cost effective projects can be achieved in the short term. The prioritization of the projects serves as a guide for choosing and funding projects, however, depending on the funding sources, some actions may be best achieved outside the priorities established here. To ensure that community goals and other factors are taken into account when prioritizing projects, a prioritization model that uses the following factors has been developed: cost (including management costs), feasibility (politically, socially, and environmentally), population benefit, property benefit, and hazard rating. Each of the factors was ranked low, moderate, or high for each of the projects. The methods used to assign a category and the associated score can be generally defined as follows: Cost: 3 Score Low: < $10,000 (including management) 2 Score Moderate: $10,000-$50,000 1 Score High: >$50,000 Feasibility: 1 Score Low (politically, socially, 2 Score Moderate environmentally) 3 Score High Population Benefit: 1 Score Low: < 5% of population to benefit (existing or future) 2 Score Moderate: 5%-50% of population to benefit 3 Score High: > 50% of population to benefit Property Benefit: 1 Score Low: < 5% of property to benefit (existing or future) 2 Score Moderate: 5%-50% of property to benefit 3 Score High: > 50% of property to benefit Hazard Rating: 1 Score Low (from risk assessment summary) 2 Score Moderate 3 Score High These scores and projects were updated during the January 9, 2012 public meeting. A summary of the scores for each of the proposed projects can be found in Table 5.1. July 2012 5-6 Table 5.1 Proposed Actions and Priority Scores for Gallatin County Goal 1: Prevent Losses from Wildfire Project Cost Feasibility Population Benefit Property Benefit Hazard Rating Score Fire Wise Programs 3 3 2 2 3 13 Defensible Space Requirements 3 1 2 2 3 11 Subdivision Regulations for Wildfire 3 1 2 2 3 11 Fuels Reduction on Roadways 1 1 3 1 3 9 Fuels reduction for Utilities 1 1 3 2 3 10 Fuels Mapping 3 3 2 2 3 13 Community Wildfire Protection Plan 3 3 3 2 3 14 Wildfire History Database 3 3 3 2 3 14 Individual WUI Assessments 1 3 2 2 3 11 Homeowner Fuels Reduction 1 3 2 2 3 11 Goal 2: Reduce potential losses from earthquakes Project Cost Feasibility Population Benefit Property Benefit Hazard Rating Score Critical facilities tie downs 1 1 3 3 3 11 Critical facilities retrofits 1 1 3 3 3 11 Seismic bridges inspections 1 1 3 3 3 11 Anchor transformers and generators 2 3 3 2 3 13 Expansion joints for utilities 1 1 3 3 3 11 Earthquake retrofit education 3 3 3 3 3 15 Commercial structures seismic surveys 1 1 3 3 3 11 Earthquake retrofits financial incentives 3 1 3 3 3 13 Many of the projects in Goal 1 remained the same in the update. These activities are primarily ongoing projects that needs to be addressed on a reoccurring basis as fuels grow, houses are built, and new incidents occur. While th e Community Wildfire Protection Plan is complete, it is a living document that needs to be updated frequently along with the Wildfire History Database. The projects is Goal 2 remained the same as we view this as an ongoing project with the age of the infrastructure and buildings in the county. July 2012 5-7 Table 5.1 (continued) Proposed Actions and Priority Scores for Gallatin County Goal 3: Reduce damages from flooding Project Cost Feasibility Population Benefit Property Benefit Hazard Ratings Score Dam Securit y 1 1 2 2 2 8 Flood insurance education 3 3 2 2 2 12 Critical Facilities Flood Mitigation 1 1 2 1 2 7 Woody debris removal from rivers 1 1 2 1 2 7 More restrictive floodplain regulations 3 1 2 2 2 10 NFIP mapping and participation 3 3 2 2 2 12 Flood control/stabilization improvement incentives 1 1 2 2 2 8 Buyout/relocation feasibility analysis 1 1 2 2 2 8 Alternative flood mitigation measures study 1 1 2 2 2 8 Goal 4: Reduce losses from a transportation or hazardous materials accident. Project Cost Feasibility Population Benefit Property Benefit Hazard Ratings Score Emergency transportation plan 2 2 3 3 3 13 Fixed site mapping (TIER) 3 2 3 3 3 14 Goal 5: Prevent significant loss of life from communicable disease and bioterrorism. Project Cost Feasibility Population Benefit Property Benefit Hazard Ratings Score Surveillance System 3 3 3 1 2 12 Medical stakeholders group 3 3 3 1 2 12 Health Care Communication 3 3 3 1 2 12 Chempack Plan 3 3 3 1 2 12 The Goal 3 projects remained the same in the update. Many of these items, while beneficial, are politically and financially cost prohibitive. No changes were made to Goal 4 and the projects remain the same. The projects in Goal 5 were completely updated to accurately reflect the health depar tments true focus. July 2012 5-8 Table 5.1 (continued) Proposed Actions and Priority Scores for Gallatin County Goal 6: Promote all-hazard mitigation measures. Project Cost Feasibility Population Benefit Property Benefit Hazard Ratings Score Prioritize and harden infrastructure 1 2 3 3 2 11 Critical infrastructure back- up systems (Facility & Comms) 1 3 3 3 2 12 NWS Storm Ready Community/ Severe Weather Preparedness 3 3 3 3 2 15 Emergency Alert System plan 3 3 3 3 2 15 NOAA weather radios in critical facilities, West 3 3 3 3 2 15 Early Warning on Dams 1 2 2 2 2 9 Utility failure sheltering plan 3 3 3 1 2 12 HAZUS GIS data development 3 2 3 3 2 13 Community Preparedness Program 2 3 3 3 2 13 Enhanced Weather Forecasting 1 2 3 3 2 11 The Goal 6 projects had the most changes. Universal Power Supplies for Communications was removed as that has largely been resolved. Emergency Alert System Plan was retained, however a local area plan is now in place for Gallatin County. Early Warning on Hyalite Dam was broadened to all dams as an early system in now installed on Hyalite Dam. Community Preparedness Program was a new project added to encourage an all encompassing public education program. Enhanced Weather Forecasting was also added to address the areas lack o f weather forecasting due to geography. July 2012 5-9 Implementation Plan Those actions that have received the highest scores will be given the highest priority. As funding or opportunities to initiate these projects come up, the higher priority activities can be prioritized even further with more detailed costs, benefits, and other criteria. The implementation strategy for the proposed actions can be found in Table 5.2. Table 5.2 Implementation Plan for Actions in Gallatin County, and Incorporated Cities Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Funding Priority Score Earthquake Retrofit Education Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management FEMA 15 Educational campaign on ReadyGallatin.com Discussion topic at LEPC meetings to inform junior taxing districts of HMGP Severe Weather Preparedness Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, Weather Service NWS, FEMA 15 Implementation of SkyWarn in Gallatin Gateway All towns and the county are recognized Storm Ready Communities Emergency Alert System Plan Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, 911, NWS, Broadcasters FEMA 15 Developed Local Area Plan in 2011 for Gallatin County Implemented in house ENDEC for local initiation of EAS for Gallatin County NOAA Weather Radio Distribution Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, NWS FEMA, NWS 15 All schools and government buildings have been provided weather radios (Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan, Three Forks, West Yellowstone, and in the County). Working towards funding for new sites and replacement of broken units throughout county. Add NOAA coverage to West Yellowstone and Big Sky. Fixed Site Mapping (TIER) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, DEQ DOT, FEMA 14 City of Bozeman Mobile Data Terminal and Pre Plan project for emergency responders Gallatin County GIS/ 911 Structure Mapping Project Community Wildfire Protection Plan Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities County Fire, DNRC DNRC 14 Gallatin County CWPP adopted by Gallatin County Wildfire History Database Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Service, DNRC DNRC 14 Anchor Transformers & Generators Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facilities FEMA 13 Gallatin County and West Yellowstone working on HMGP Generator Project Earthquake Retrofit Incentives Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Elected Officials FEMA 13 July 2012 5-10 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Funding Priority Score Fire Fuels Mapping Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities County Fire, DNRC, GIS DNRC 13 Fire Wise Programs Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Service, Emergency Management DNRC, Fire Safe Montana 13 Emergency Transportation Plan Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management DOT 13 HAZUS GIS Data Development Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities GIS FEMA 13 Community Preparedness Program Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management FEMA 13 Critical Infrastructure Backup Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facilities FEMA 12 Continued build out of communications backbone for high level of redundancy. Flood Insurance Education Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, Planning FEMA, NWS 12 Annual flood insurance education campaign in Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan, Three Forks, and West Yellowstone. NFIP Mapping and Participation Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Planning FEMA 12 Gallatin County, Bozeman, Belgrade, and Three Forks are NFIP Participants Surveillance System (medical) Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Department DPPHS 12 Medical Stakeholders Group Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Department DPPHS 12 Health Care Communication Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Department DPPHS 12 Radio system has been expanded to support health related communications between Bozeman, Belgrade, Manhattan, and Three Forks. Working to incorporate West Yellowstone. Radio system for communication with Bozeman Deaconess Hospital has been replaced and are working to enhance the usability of new system. Chempack Plan Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Department DPPHS, CDC 12 Working on education of Chempack program within Gallatin County. Defensible Space Requirements Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Planning, Fire Service DNRC 11 Subdivsion Regulations for wildfire Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Planning, Fire Service DNRC 11 July 2012 5-11 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Funding Priority Score Individual WUI Assessments Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Service DNRC 11 Homeowner Fuels Reduction Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Service DNRC 11 Several local wildfire mitigation organizations developed in West Yellowstone and Big Sky in concert with Fire Safe Montana. Annual wildfire mitigation education campaigns throughout the county. Critical Facility Tie Downs Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facilities FEMA 11 Critical Facility Retrofit Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facilities FEMA 11 Working with Bozeman, Belgrade, Three Forks, and West Yellowstone to utilize retrofit funding in remodels. Seismic Bridge Inspections Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Road and Bridge DOT 11 Gallatin County in process of developing bridge replacement program for out of specification bridges. Expansion Joint for Utilities Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Public Works, Facilities FEMA 11 Prioritize and Harden Infrastructure Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facilities FEMA 11 Enhanced Weather Forecast Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Emergency Management, NWS NWS 11 July 2012 5-12 Enabling Legislation The enabling legislation for the implementation of this plan specifically comes from Section 322, Mitigation Planning, of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, enacted by Section 104 of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (P.L. 106-390). The Interim Final Rule for this legislation was published in the Federal Register on February 26, 2002 at 44 CFR Part 201. Other legislation, orders, and plans that support the initiatives presented in this plan include: Presidential Executive Order 12898, Environmental Justice Presidential Executive Order 11988, Floodplain Management Presidential Executive Order 11990, Protection of Wetlands Montana Code Annotated, Title 10, Chapter 3, Disaster and Emergency Services Montana Code Annotated, Title 76, Chapter 5, Flood Plain and Floodway Management Montana Code Annotated, Title 50, Chapter 60, Building Construction Standards Montana Code Annotated, Title 76, Chapter 2, Planning and Zoning Gallatin County Growth Policy Gallatin County Subdivision Regulations Gallatin County and City of Bozeman Floodplain Ordinances City of Bozeman Building Code City-County Zoning Regulations City of Belgrade Subdivision Regulations City of Three Forks Zoning Regulations Town of West Yellowstone Zoning Regulations Existing Programs The approval of this plan shows that hazard mitigation is an important priority in Gallatin County, Bozeman, Belgrade, West Yellowstone, and Three Forks. As a priority, the hazard information and recommendations presented in this plan will be considered and incorporated into current and future planning initiatives, particularly growth policies, capital improvement plans, zoning regulations, and subdivision regulations. The Local Emergency Planning Committee is already active in the promotion of hazard mitigation and will continue to do so with the member agencies represented. Additional support for mitigation will be encouraged by the participating jurisdictions planning departments through building codes, subdivision review, and land use permits. The many organizations devoted to sustainable communities and the protection of natural resources will be encouraged to use this plan and support its goals. July 2012 6-1 6. Plan Maintenance Procedures Plan Monitoring, Evaluation, and Updates This plan is maintained by the Gallatin County LEPC. This committee has representatives from local public safety departments and private entities. All were active in the development of this plan. Annually at the September LEPC meeting, a public meeting will be held to review the plan. Notices will be posted in The Bozeman Chronicle newspaper. Annual updates should be made and committee approval may then take place at the October meeting or subsequent meetings. As hazard information is added or updated, events occur, and projects are completed, the plan will be updated. Each year, a notice of approval will be sent to Montana Disaster & Emergency Services by the Gallatin County LEPC Chairperson, and if major changes take place, a revised version of the plan will also be submitted. Every five years, the plan will be submitted to Montana Disaster & Emergency Services and the Federal Emergency Management Agency Regional Office for their approval. The next formal submission will occur in August 2010. Table 6.1 outlines the update schedule for the plan. Table 6.1 Gallatin County Schedule of Updates Plan Section Post-Disaster Annually Every 5 Years Annual Report to Montana DES X X Adoption Documentation X X X Introduction X Planning Process X X X Hazard Identification X X Critical Facilities X Buildings X Infrastructure X Economy X Land Use and Future Development X Vulnerability Assessment Methodology X Hazard Profiles X X X Risk Assessment Summary X Goals, Objectives, and Proposed Actions X X X Action Prioritization X X X Implementation Plan X X X Plan Maintenance Procedures X July 2012 6-2 Public Involvement An important aspect of this plan since its inception has been public involvement. To encourage continued participation, comments can be directed to the Gallatin County All Hazards All discipline (AHAD) Chairperson. This committee can be reached through Gallatin County Emergency Management at: Gallatin County Emergency Management Box 1230 Bozeman, MT 59771 406-582-2350 Comments will be considered during the annual review of this plan. The public is also encouraged to attend the annual plan review meeting. If needed, a special AHAD subcommittee will be developed to hold public meetings and coordinate plan changes and comments July 2012 7-1 Appendix A – 2006 Strategies . Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Funding Source(s) Priority Score Early Warning on Hyalite Dam Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities DES, NWS DNRC, FEMA, Homeland Security 13 Completed in 2011. Strategy maintained and expanded for warning systems on other dams. Score reduced to 9 due to lower risk from remaining dams. Critical facilities tie downs Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facility Managers/Owners Internal / FEMA/ Business 13 Received a decreased score of 11 in revision. Critical facilities retrofits Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facility Managers/Owners Internal / FEMA/ Business 12 Received a decreased score of 11 in revision. Seismic bridges inspections Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Bridge Managers/Owners Internal / FEMA/MDOT 12 Received a decreased score of 11 in revision. Anchor transformers and generators Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facility Managers/Owners Internal / FEMA/ Business 12 Received an increased score of 13 in revision. Projects currently underway. Expansion joints for utilities Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facility Managers/Owners Internal / FEMA/ Business 12 Received a reduced score of 11 in revision. Earthquake retrofit education Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities DES / Red Cross Internal / FEMA 12 Received an increased score of 15 in the revision. Reviewers felt education had the best rate of return on our investment. Currently part of education campaign. Flood insurance education Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Flood Plain Managers, DES, Insurance Agents Internal, DNRC, FEMA, Business 12 Maintained a 12 in the revision. Currently part of education campaign. More restrictive floodplain regulations Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Flood Plain Managers, Planning Departments Internal, DNRC, FEMA, Business 12 Received a decreased score of 10 in revision. Reviewers felt the feasibility of this was extremely low. Flood insurance education Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Flood Plain Managers Internal, DNRC, FEMA, Business 12 Maintained a 12 in the revision. Emergency transportation plan Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities MDOT, Roads, DES Internal Homeland Security FEMA 12 Received an increase to a 13 in the revision. July 2012 7-2 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Funding Source(s) Priority Score UPS for Comms Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities 911, DES Internal Homeland Security FEMA 12 Retitled to Critical Infrastructure backup systems to more accurately reflect the intent and combine communications and infrastructure. Many sites have been upgraded, some are currently being addressed with HMGP. Maintained a 12 in the revision. NWS Storm Ready Community Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities DES, NWS NWS, FEMA, Internal 12 Increased to a 15 during the revision. Reviewers felt this had a good return on effort. Currently in place and expanding Sky Warn training. Emergency Alert System plan Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities DES, NWS NWS, FEMA, Internal 12 Received an increase to 15 in the revision. Reviewers felt this was achievable and important. Completed and will be ready for revision soon. NOAA weather radios in critical facilities, West Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities DES, NWS NWS, FEMA, Internal 12 Received an increase to 15 in the revision. Reviewers thought this was important with NOAA being the EAS backbone in Montana and not having county wide coverage. Currently underway. Community Wildfire Protection Plan Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Departments DNRC 11 Was increased to a 14 in the revision. Commercial structures seismic surveys Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Managers/Owners Internal / FEMA/ Business 11 No change in revision. Earthquake retrofits financial incentives Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities DES Internal / FEMA 11 Received an increase to 13 in the revision. Critical Facilities Flood Mitigation Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facility Managers/Owners Internal / FEMA/ Business 11 Received a reduction to 7 during the revision. Woody debris removal from rivers Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Road Street Departments MDOT Internal, MDOT 11 Received a reduction to 7 during the revision. Individual WUI Assessments Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Departments DNRC 11 No change in revision. NFIP mapping and participation Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Flood Plain Managers Internal, DNRC, FEMA, Business 11 Received an increase to 12 during the revision. July 2012 7-3 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Funding Source(s) Priority Score Buyout/relocation feasibility analysis Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Flood Plain Managers Internal, DNRC, FEMA, Business 11 Received a reduction to 8 during the revision. Alternative flood mitigation measures study Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Flood Plain Managers Internal, DNRC, FEMA, Business 11 Received a reduction to 8 during the revision. Defensible Space Requirements Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Departments Owners Associations Planning Department Land Management Agencies 11 No change in revision. Prioritize and harden infrastructure Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities DES, Utilities, Internal Homeland Security FEMA 11 No change in revision. Critical infrastructure back-up systems Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facility Owners Internal Homeland Security FEMA 11 Merged with communications. Currently underway. Subdivision Regulations for Wildfire Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Departments Planning Department Land Mgmt Agencies DNRC, USFS, BLM, FEMA, Internal 11 No change in revision. Fuels Reduction on Roadways Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Departments Owners Associations Planning Department Land Mgmt Agencies DNRC 11 Decreased to 9 during revision. Fuels reduction for Utilities Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Departments Owners Associations Planning Department Land Management Agencies DNRC 11 Decreased to a 10 during revision. Fuels Mapping Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Departments Land Management Agencies DNRC 11 Increased to a 13 during revision. Fire Wise Programs Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Departments Owners Associations Planning Department Land Management Agencies Internal, DNRC, USFS, BLM, FEMA, Home Owners 11 Increased to a 13 during revision. July 2012 7-4 Project Description Jurisdiction Responsible Department/Partner Potential Funding Source(s) Priority Score Generators for critical facilities Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Facility Owners, DES Internal Homeland Security FEMA 11 Combined with critical infrastructure backup during revision. Currently underway. HAZUS GIS data development Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities GIS, DES Internal Homeland Security FEMA 11 Increased to 13 during revision. Dam Security Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Dam Owner Internal, FEMA 10 Decreased to a 8 during revision. Flood control/stabilization improvement incentives Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Flood Plain Managers Internal, DNRC, FEMA, Business 10 Decreased to an 8 during revision. Homeowner Fuels Reduction Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Departments Home Owners DNRC 10 Increased to an 11 during revision. Fixed site mapping Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities GIS, DES Internal Homeland Security FEMA 10 Increased to a 14 during revision. Disease prevention education Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Department, medical providers Internal Homeland Security FEMA 10 Removed. Medical stakeholders group Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Health Department, medical providers Internal Homeland Security FEMA 10 Increased to a 12 during the review. Utility failure sheltering plan Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities DES, Red Cross, Fire Departments Internal Homeland Security FEMA 10 Increased to a 12 during revision. Wildfire History Database Gallatin County and Incorporated Cities Fire Departments Land Management Agencies DNRC 8 Increased to a 14 during revision. Priority Increased Priority Decreased No Change Removed 8-1 Appendix B Public Meeting Documentation 8-2 8-3 Invitation List for 2011 Revision Process Belinda Van Nurden Park County Disaster and Emergency Services Rick Seidlitz Meagher County Disaster and Emergency Services Chris Mumme Madison County Disaster and Emergency Services Sally Buckles Jefferson County Office of Emergency Services Bill Fleiner Broadwater County Disaster and Emergency Services Bob Fry Montana Disaster and Emergency Services Kent Atwood Montana Disaster and Emergency Services Doug Chabot Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center Karl Birkeland USFS National Avalanche Center Ray Stocks Montana Department of Transportation Paul Schnieder Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport Betty Kalakay Gallatin City-County Health Department Lawrence Siroky Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation Ben Schott National Weather Service Michael Stickney Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology Henry Heasler Yellowstone Volcano Observatory Sean O'Callaghan Gallatin County Planning Department Lee Provance Gallatin County Road and Bridge Department Patrick Patterson Northwestern Energy Craig Campbell Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation Fred Jones Gallatin National Forest Joe Krish Yellowstone National Park Dave Hoekema Amsterdam Rural Fire District Jason Shrauger Bozeman Fire Department Kevin Strickler Central Valley Fire District Dan Astrom Bridger Canyon Fire District Mike Cech Fort Ellis Fire Service Area Seth Barker Big Sky Fire Department Jim Cashell Gallatin County Sheriff's Office Ben Hess Gallatin County 911 Mike Ulmen Manhattan Fire District Cooper Wade Gallatin Gateway Rural Fire District Scott Waldron Hebgen Basin Rural Fire District JD Engle Rae and Sourdough Fire Departments Bruce Felz Three Forks Fire District George Reich Willow Creek Fire District Ross Johnson Gallatin River Ranch Fire District Ron Price Bozeman Police Department EJ Clark Belgrade Police Department Dennis Hengel Manhattan Police Department Troy Burdick Three Forks Police Department 8-4 Rick Hixson Bozeman Engineering Division Joe Menicucci City of Belgrade Ray Noble City of Three Forks Jamie Greene Town of West Yellowstone Glenn Puffer Montana State University Joe Skinner Gallatin County Commission Steve White Gallatin County Commission Bill Murdock Gallatin County Commission Earl Mathers Gallatin County 8-5 8-6 8-7 8-8 8-9 8-10 8-11 8-12 8-13 8-14 8-15 8-16 8-17 8-18 8-19 8-20 10-1 Appendix B Meeting Attendance Records 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 10-10 10-11 10-12 10-13 10-14 10-15