HomeMy WebLinkAboutMT Employment Projections - Job Growth from 2023-2033Montana
Employment Projections
Job Growth from 2023-2033
Montana Employment Projections
Job Growth from 2023 to 2033
SEPTEMBER 2024
State of Montana
Greg Gianforte, Governor
Montana Department of Labor & Industry
Sarah Swanson, Commissioner
Created by:
Data & Operations Bureau
Nick Holom, Senior Economist
Amy Watson, State Economist
Olivia Hayes, Economist
For more information contact:
Data & Operations Bureau
P.O. Box 1728
Helena, MT 59624-1728
(406) 444-4100
lmi.mt.gov
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 2
Table of Contents and Select Figures
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 3
About Employment Projections ..................................................................................................................................... 5
Overview of Montana’s 2023-2033 Projections ........................................................................................................... 6
Industry Growth ............................................................................................................................................................. 8
Occupational Demand ................................................................................................................................................ 10
Figure 5: Annual Projected Demand by Occupation Group, 2023-2033 .......................................................... 11
Figure 6: Top Ten Occupations by Total Openings, 2023-2033 ........................................................................ 12
Occupational Demand – High Wage Jobs ................................................................................................................... 13
Figure 7: Top Ten Occupations Earning Between $45,000-$65,000, 2023-2033 ........................................... 14
Figure 8: Top Ten Occupations Earning Over $65,000, 2023-2033 ................................................................. 15
Occupational Demand – Education Level ................................................................................................................... 16
Figure 9: Job Openings by Minimum Education Level, 2023-2033 .................................................................. 17
Figure 11: Top Ten Occupations Requiring a Bachelor's Degree or Higher, 2023-2033 ................................... 19
Figure 12: Top Ten Occupations Requiring Some Postsecondary Education, but Less Than a Bachelor's
Degree, 2023-2033 ........................................................................................................................................... 20
Figure 13: Top Ten Occupations Earning Over $45,000 that Require a High School Education or Less,
2023-2033 ........................................................................................................................................................ 21
Figure 14: Top Ten Occupations Requiring an Advanced Degree, 2023-2033 ................................................. 22
Healthcare Occupations in High Demand ................................................................................................................... 23
Figure 15: Top Ten Healthcare Occupations, 2023-2033 ................................................................................. 23
Occupational Demand – STEM .................................................................................................................................... 24
Figure 16: Top Ten STEM Occupations Montana, 2023-2033 .......................................................................... 24
Occupational Demand - Apprenticeships ................................................................................................................... 25
Figure 17: Top Ten Occupations with Apprenticeships in Montana, 2023-2033 .............................................. 25
Figure 18: Top Ten U.S. Apprenticeable Occupations Not Yet Apprenticed in Montana, 2023-2033............... 26
Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................. 27
Appendix A - Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 28
Employment Projections ..................................................................................................................................... 28
Appendix B – Accuracy of Past Forecasts ................................................................................................................... 30
Figure 19: MTDLI Total Employment Error .......................................................................................................... 30
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 3
Executive Summary
The Montana Department of Labor & Industry (MTDLI) strives to empower Montanans through work and opportunity.
Employment projections offer essential insights into future occupational skills, helping align educational programs
and training with market demands. This guidance benefits employers, educational institutions, and job seekers.
Montana's job market has shown strong resilience, adding over 18,000 jobs in 2022, a state record. Growth
moderated in 2023, adding 8,600 jobs, aligning with long-term trends. Despite projected slower growth due to
worker shortages and low unemployment, Montana's employment is expected to exceed 600,000 by 2033. MTDLI
forecasts an annual addition of 6,400 jobs (1.1% growth) through 2033, with higher in-migration rates offsetting
some workforce constraints from the aging population.
Highlights include:
• Total employment is projected to grow by 1.1% annually through 2033, resulting in approximately 6,400 new
jobs each year. Although this represents a slower growth rate compared to recent years, it aligns with the
state's long-term trend and exceeds the national average for employment growth.
• Labor force participation rates are projected to decline by one percentage point to 62% over the next ten years
due to an aging population.
• The state's working-age population is anticipated to grow by 1.3% annually, reaching 1,030,000 by 2033. In-
migration is the primary factor driving this growth, which helps counterbalance the decline in labor force
participation rates.
• Healthcare is expected to add the most jobs over the next decade, with an average of 1,310 new positions
each year. This growth is driven by increased in-migration and an aging population, both of which boost
demand for healthcare services.
• Construction employment is projected to grow at the fastest rate through 2033, with an average annual growth
rate of 2.3%. This expansion is fueled by population growth and increased infrastructure investments.
• The Northwest (includes Missoula and Kalispell) region and Southwest region (includes Bozeman, Helena, and
Butte) are expected to have strong job growth, fueled by population increases and expansion in various sectors
such as construction, healthcare, and professional services (Figure 1). Forecasts of growth in the South-Central
region are steady, supported by sectors like healthcare and construction, despite challenges in mining. North-
Central (Great Falls) and Eastern regions are forecasted to have moderate job growth, both stabilizing after
economic fluctuations.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 4
FIGURE 1: Montana Projection Regions with Average Annual Growth Rates
Source: Montana Department of Labor & Industry Employment Projections, 2022-2033.
Montana is projected to see significant demand for workers over the next decade, with over 71,590 job openings
annually through 2033. Most openings (51%) will come from turnover, while 40% will result from retirements and
labor force exits. The remaining 9% of openings will come from job growth. The state's aging population and
increased retirements contribute to this demand.
Occupational Demand Highlights:
•High-Demand Occupations: Food preparation and serving, office and administrative support, and sales.
•Growth-Driven Occupations: Computer and mathematical fields, healthcare occupations, and construction
occupations.
•For those planning their careers, high-demand, high-paying occupations include:
o Earning Between $45,000-$65,000: Truck drivers, carpenters, and electricians.
o Earning Over $65,000: General and operations managers, registered nurses, and medical and health
services managers.
•STEM Growth: Top roles include support specialists, software developers, and health services managers.
•Apprenticeship Expansion: High-wage, high demand occupations include electricians, plumbing, truck drivers,
accountants, and chefs.
The Montana Department of Labor & Industry (MTDLI) projects a promising yet measured growth environment for
the state's job market over the next decade. Montana is well-positioned to continue its trend of robust employment
growth. Despite challenges such as an aging population and worker shortages, the state’s proactive measures and
high in-migration rates help mitigate these issues. Significant opportunities will arise in healthcare, construction,
and various high-demand occupations, presenting a diverse array of career paths for Montanans.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 5
About Employment Projections
Every year, the Montana Department of Labor & Industry (MTDLI) produces employment projections in conjunction
with the U.S. Department of Labor to be used by a variety of groups and individuals to help plan workforce
development. Employment projections are produced over a two-year and ten-year time frame, by industry and
occupation, as well as for the state and five sub-state regions. The five substate regions are shown in Figure 1.
Employment forecasts are an estimate of the future demand for workers based on historical employment data and
the knowledge that is available at the time of the forecast. Because the economy is constantly changing, the
forecasts are not going to be exactly right. Instead, projections should be viewed as the most likely employment
growth outcome given the current knowledge and information about the economy. Additionally, projections focus on
long-term employment growth, rather than short-term and temporary fluctuations in the business cycle. Therefore,
employment forecasts are published as a linear average over the two-year and ten-year period, even though the
underlying forecast may include variations from that trend.
This report provides a broad overview of this year’s statewide and regional projections along with commonly
requested tables of high-demand jobs by specific categories (such as jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree, jobs that
pay higher than $65,000, and apprenticeable jobs). For detailed information on methodology, see Appendix A. For
information of past forecast accuracy, see Appendix B.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 6
Overview of Montana’s 2023-2033 Projections
Montana's job market has shown remarkable resilience and growth over the past few years. In 2022, Montana
added over 18,000 jobs, marking a record high for the state. Following the pandemic recession in 2020,
employment grew by over 3.5% per year in 2021 and 2022. This notable growth was driven by the rehiring of laid-
off individuals and a higher-than-normal influx of out-of-state workers, facilitated by remote work policies. Looking
forward, employment growth is projected to continue at a moderated rate due to a shortage of available workers
and persistently low unemployment rates. Despite a slowdown in growth, total employment in Montana is projected
to surpass 600,000 by 2033.
Figure 2 illustrates the historical and projected employment from 2000 to 2033. MTDLI projects the state will add
an average of approximately 6,350 jobs per year through 2033, translating to 1.1% employment growth annually.
Employment growth is anticipated in the near term, driven by higher in-migration rates and a significant increase in
job openings following the pandemic recession. Long-run growth is primarily constrained by tight labor markets;
however, positive migration trends will help offset some of the workforce supply constraints caused by the state’s
aging population.
All regions of Montana are projected to experience employment growth over the next decade, although the extent of
growth will vary (Figure 3). The Southwest region, which includes Bozeman, Helena, and Butte, is forecasted to have
the highest annual growth, adding approximately 2,730 jobs per year at a growth rate of 1.5%. This growth is
supported by a strong influx of population and job gains across various industries, including construction, retail
trade, accommodation and food service, and professional services. Total employment in this region is projected to
grow by 13% by 2033 compared to 2023 levels.
The Northwest region, encompassing Missoula and Kalispell, is expected to have the second-highest growth rate,
with an annual increase of 2,070 jobs at a growth rate of 1.2%. Similar to the southwest, this region benefits from a
strong population influx and diverse job creation across multiple sectors.
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026202820302032PopulationLabor Force\EmploymentFIGURE 2: Total Employment, Payroll Employment, Labor Force and Working Age Population
Population (16 and Up) Total Employment
Payroll Employment Labor Force
Source:MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033.
Projected
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 7
Employment in the South-Central region, including Billings, is projected to grow by 0.9%, translating to an annual
addition of 1,090 jobs. Despite challenges such as the retirement of Colstrip units 1 and 2 and a decrease in
mining and utilities industry wages, the region is expected to see growth in healthcare, construction, and leisure
activities.
The Eastern region, which experienced a boom-and-bust cycle due to the Bakken oilfields, is now stabilizing.
Employment is projected to grow modestly by 0.4%, adding approximately 160 jobs per year. The North-Central
region is also expected to see moderate growth, with an annual increase of 300 jobs at a growth rate of 0.4%.
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033FIGURE 3: Regional Employment Indexed to 2023
Southwest North Central South Central EasternMontana Northwest
Projected
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 8
Industry Growth
Montana's employment landscape is set to evolve significantly over the next decade. Projected employment growth
rates by industry reveal a dynamic job market, with some sectors poised for robust expansion and others facing
challenges. Total employment, including self-employed workers, is projected to grow more slowly than payroll
employment as a tight labor market raises wages, drawing some self-employed workers into payroll jobs.
Key Industry Projections:
•Construction is expected to be the largest contributor to job creation in Montana until 2033. The construction
sector is projected to maintain a 10-year average of 930 jobs added annually through 2033 (Figure 4). This
growth is driven by increased demand for residential construction projects due to Montana's high population
growth, particularly in the northwest and southwest regions. Additionally, government outlays for infrastructure
are expected to further stimulate construction employment.
•Healthcare and social assistance, while struggling through the pandemic, is anticipated to grow steadily. The
sector is projected to add 1,440 jobs annually from 2023 to 2025 and 1,310 jobs per year through 2033,
reflecting a growth rate of 1.6%. Despite challenges such as nursing home closures and healthcare worker
burnout, demand for healthcare services remains high due to an aging population.
•Professional and technical services have shown remarkable growth over the past decade, emerging as one of
Montana's fastest-growing industries. The sector is projected to add 430 jobs annually from 2023 to 2025 and
510 jobs per year through 2033. The ability of professionals to work remotely has shielded the industry from the
negative impacts of the pandemic and facilitated migration to Montana. The continued evolution of remote work
practices and technological innovations is expected to further bolster this sector's growth.
•Accommodation and food services face challenges in maintaining past growth rates, with a projected growth
rate of 1.2% compared to 2.1% previously. The industry is expected to add 540 jobs annually from 2023 to
2025 and 740 jobs per year through 2033. Workforce shortages and competition for limited workers,
exacerbated by the industry's traditionally lower wages, are key factors limiting growth.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 9
FIGURE 4: Montana Compounding Annual Employment Growth, Historic and Projected
Industry
2021-
2023
Growth
Rate
2023-
2025
Growth
Rate
2023-
2025
Annual Job
Growth
2013-
2023
Growth
Rate
2023-
2033
Growth
Rate
2023-
2033
Annual Job
Growth
Healthcare 2.0% 1.9% 1,440 1.5% 1.6% 1,310
Construction 5.5% 2.1% 800 4.4% 2.3% 930
Accommodation & Food 5.4% 0.9% 540 2.1% 1.2% 740
Professional & Technical 6.0% 1.5% 430 3.5% 1.7% 510
Retail Trade 1.8% 0.6% 400 1.1% 0.6% 370
Manufacturing 1.1% 0.9% 200 1.7% 1.2% 290
Wholesale Trade 4.0% 1.6% 300 1.0% 1.1% 220
Other 2.9% 1.0% 190 1.2% 1.1% 210
Local Government 1.7% 1.0% 210 1.2% 0.9% 200
Admin & Support Services 4.1% 0.6% 130 1.8% 0.7% 160
Agriculture 3.0% 1.9% 130 3.7% 1.9% 140
Finance 2.0% 0.7% 110 1.3% 0.8% 140
Arts & Entertainment 1.8% 0.9% 110 1.2% 1.0% 130
Transportation & Warehousing 0.0% 0.7% 120 0.8% 0.6% 110
Education 1.9% 0.3% 120 0.3% 0.3% 100
Real Estate 3.8% 0.4% 30 2.8% 0.9% 60
Management -3.7% 3.0% 60 0.7% 1.6% 40
Mining 4.5% 1.4% 100 -2.7% 0.5% 30
State Government -0.4% 0.6% 70 0.0% 0.2% 30
Utilities 1.8% 0.6% 20 -0.9% 0.3% 10
Federal Government 2.7% 0.0% 0 0.8% 0.0% 0
Postal Service -2.4% 0.7% 10 -0.6% 0.1% 0
Information -0.1% -1.1% -60 -2.1% -0.4% -20
Payroll Employment 2.9% 1.1% 5,630 1.5% 1.1% 5,730
Total Employment 2.5% 1.0% 5,340 1.4% 1.1% 6,350
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033.
Montana's job market is poised for diverse growth across various sectors. The construction, healthcare, and
professional and technical services sectors are expected to drive significant job creation, reflecting broader
economic trends and the evolving demands of Montana's growing population. Meanwhile, challenges in the
accommodation and food services sector highlight the ongoing competition for skilled workers and the impact of
wage levels on industry growth. By understanding these projections, Montana can better align its workforce
development efforts to meet future economic needs.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 10
Occupational Demand
In the next decade, Montana is projected to have an annual total of 71,590 job openings, with new jobs accounting
for 9% of the total. The majority of projected job openings are due to worker movement between occupations. Half
of all job openings, 51% or roughly 36,320, are due to workers transferring to a new occupation, leaving behind an
open position in the occupation that was left. Another 40% of job openings will be due to workers exiting the labor
force, for reasons such as retirement or enrolling in school.
The largest occupational group in terms of total openings is food preparation and serving-related occupations,
reflecting the large number of jobs in these roles and the higher turnover experienced by lower-wage jobs (Figure 5).
This group is expected to have 11,600 annual openings with a median wage of $28,280. High turnover rates
contribute to the significant number of openings in this category.
Office and administrative support occupations rank second, with 7,680 annual openings and a median wage of
$40,900. This is followed by sales and related occupations, which have 7,430 annual openings and a median
wage of $36,520. Both categories are characterized by a high volume of jobs and notable turnover rates.
Certain occupation groups have a higher proportion of job
openings due to growth rather than turnover, indicating
increasing demand for relevant skills. These include:
•Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations:
21% of openings due to growth, with 2,520 annual
openings and a median wage of $77,910.
•Construction and Extraction Occupations: 18% of
openings due to growth, with 4,370 annual openings
and a median wage of $56,960.
•Legal Occupations: 18% of openings due to growth,
with 400 annual openings and a median wage of
$71,270.
•Computer and Mathematical Occupations: 16% of
openings due to growth, with 1,480 annual openings
and a median wage of $79,990.
•Architecture and Engineering Occupations: 15% of openings due to growth, with 810 annual openings and a
median wage of $76,890.
Sources of Job Openings
New Jobs refer to jobs from growth in
employment.
Exits refer to people who leave their job and
exit the labor force, such as to retire or to
enroll in school.
Transfers are workers who leave one
occupation for a different occupation, like a
career change or promotion.
Total Openings are the number of annual job
openings from exits, transfers, and new jobs.
This methodology changed in 2016, see bls.gov
for more information.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 11
FIGURE 5: Annual Projected Demand by Occupation Group, 2023-2033
Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Group New
Jobs Exits Transfers Total
Openings
MT Median
Wage
1 Food Preparation and Serving Related 670 4,840 6,090 11,600 $28,280
2 Office and Administrative Support 150 3,630 3,900 7,680 $40,900
3 Sales and Related 320 3,240 3,860 7,430 $36,520
4 Transportation and Material Moving 530 2,270 3,150 5,950 $42,240
5 Construction and Extraction 800 1,450 2,120 4,370 $56,960
6 Healthcare Support 480 1,620 1,810 3,900 $36,410
7 Management 490 1,230 1,680 3,400 $93,850
8 Building/Grounds Cleaning Maintenance 210 1,480 1,660 3,350 $35,890
9 Personal Care and Service 200 1,030 1,630 2,870 $31,160
10 Business and Financial Operations 360 940 1,450 2,750 $64,290
11 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 320 1,030 1,320 2,670 $50,240
12 Educational Instruction and Library 140 1,280 1,240 2,650 $48,950
13 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 540 1,130 860 2,520 $77,910
14 Production 190 950 1,300 2,440 $44,720
15 Computer and Mathematical 240 460 780 1,480 $79,990
16 Community and Social Service 180 440 560 1,180 $46,040
17 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 100 380 640 1,110 $40,470
18 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports,
and Media 100 410 570 1,080 $45,980
19 Protective Service 60 460 520 1,030 $52,350
20 Life, Physical, and Social Science 80 190 630 910 $63,110
21 Architecture and Engineering 120 300 400 810 $76,890
22 Legal 70 160 170 400 $71,270
Total, All 6,350 28,920 36,320 71,590 $45,690
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 12
Montana's job market is characterized by a high
demand for positions that generally require
minimal formal education and on-the-job training.
Figure 6 highlights the top ten detailed
occupations with the most job openings projected
from 2023 to 2033. These occupations are
crucial for the state's economy, employing large
numbers of people despite their lower wages and
higher turnover rates due to the minimal skill
requirements.
FIGURE 6: Top Ten Occupations by Total Openings, 2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work Exp New
Jobs Exits Transfers Total
Openings
MT Median
Wage
1 Fast Food and
Counter Workers <HSE ST OJT 170 1,880 2,010 4,060 $28,250
2 Retail Salespersons <HSE ST OJT 110 1,060 1,280 2,460 $33,660
3 Cashiers <HSE ST OJT -20 1,160 1,170 2,310 $29,360
4 Home Health and
Personal Care Aides HSE ST OJT 280 840 700 1,830 $30,740
5 Waiters and
Waitresses <HSE ST OJT 50 720 1,020 1,790 $20,990
6 Stockers and Order
Fillers HSE ST OJT 140 580 900 1,620 $37,220
7 Office Clerks, General HSE ST OJT 30 750 720 1,500 $40,480
8
Janitors and
Cleaners, Except
Maids and
Housekeeping
Cleaners
<HSE ST OJT 70 650 650 1,380 $36,510
9 Cooks, Restaurant <HSE MT OJT 210 530 630 1,370 $34,880
10 Bartenders <HSE ST OJT 90 370 800 1,270 $21,880
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033. Notes: <HSE = less than high school diploma; HSE = High school diploma or
equivalent; ST OJT = short-term on-the-job training; MT OJT = medium-term on-the-job training.
The education and work experience listed is the
minimum required to enter the profession as
determined by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics. For occupations without a clear path to
entry, the BLS determines the typical path based on the
current minimum qualifications of workers filling those
positions. At these minimums, the worker will likely be
earning less than the average wage for the industry.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 13
Fast food and counter workers top the list with 4,060 annual openings and a median wage of $28,250. This role
requires less than a high school education and short-term on-the-job training. The high turnover in this occupation
is indicative of the entry-level nature of the job and its lower pay.
Retail salespersons follow closely with 2,460 annual openings and a median wage of $33,660. This occupation
also requires short-term on-the-job training, making it accessible to a broad demographic.
Cashiers are the third most in-demand occupation, with 2,310 annual openings and a median wage of $29,360.
The demand for cashiers remains high despite advancements in automated checkout technologies.
Home health and personal care aides, who play a crucial role in supporting Montana's aging population, have
1,830 annual openings and a median wage of $30,740. This occupation requires a high school diploma and short-
term on-the-job training, offering a pathway into the healthcare field.
Waiters and waitresses rank fifth with 1,790 annual openings and the lowest median wage among the top ten at
$20,990. This job is often a starting point for individuals entering the workforce, especially in the hospitality sector.
Other notable occupations include stockers and order fillers with 1,620 annual openings and a median wage of
$37,220, and office clerks who have the highest median wage among the top ten at $40,480 and 1,500 annual
openings. Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners, and restaurant cooks are also in high
demand, offering median wages of $36,510 and $34,880, respectively. Lastly, bartenders have 1,270 annual
openings with a median wage of $21,880.
Occupational Demand – High Wage Jobs
Montanans planning for their first career or considering a career change can benefit from exploring high-demand
occupations with high pay. Figures 7 and 8 illustrate the occupations that offer competitive wages and have
significant projected openings over the next decade.
Figure 7 shows the top occupations in Montana paying between $45,000 and $65,000 annually. These roles often
require more work experience or post-secondary education. The most in-demand job in this wage bracket is heavy
and tractor-trailer truck drivers, with 980 annual openings and a median wage of $56,610. This occupation typically
requires postsecondary non-degree awards and short-term on-the-job training.
Other high-paying occupations in this category include various skilled trades. Carpenters have 670 annual openings
with a median wage of $50,340, while electricians have 380 annual openings with a median wage of $64,590.
These trades often require completion of an apprenticeship program.
Notably, only two of the top ten occupations in this wage range require education beyond high school. Business
operations specialists and computer user support specialists highlight the importance of technical and
administrative skills, offering median wages of $63,960 and $50,890, respectively.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 14
FIGURE 7: Top Ten Occupations Earning Between $45,000-$65,000, 2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp
New
Jobs Exits Total
Openings
MT Median
Wage
1 Heavy and Tractor-
Trailer Truck Drivers PS ND ST OJT 100 390 500 980 $56,610
2 Construction
Laborers <HSE ST OJT 150 220 330 700 $47,590
3 Carpenters HSE Appren 130 230 310 670 $50,340
4
First-Line Supervisors
of Retail Sales
Workers
HSE <5 yrs 30 240 370 640 $47,480
5 Computer User
Support Specialists SC AS MT OJT 60 210 350 620 $50,890
6
Sales
Representatives,
Wholesale and
Manufacturing,
Except Technical and
Scientific Products
HSE MT OJT 50 150 250 460 $57,470
7
First-Line Supervisors
of Office and
Administrative
Support Workers
HSE <5 yrs 10 190 240 440 $59,230
8
Operating Engineers
and Other
Construction
Equipment Operators
HSE MT OJT 80 140 220 430 $58,550
9 Business Operations
Specialists, All Other Bach 40 150 230 410 $63,960
10 Electricians HSE Appren 80 120 190 380 $64,590
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033. Notes: <HSE = less than high school diploma; HSE = High school diploma or
equivalent; SC AS = Some college or Associate's; PS ND = Postsecondary no degree; Appren = Apprenticeship; Bach = Bach degree; ST OJT =
short-term on-the-job training; MT OJT = medium-term on-the-job training; LT OJT = medium-term on-the-job training; <5 yrs = less than five
years of experience.
Transfers
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 15
Figure 8 highlights occupations in Montana with median wages over $65,000. These high-wage roles are critical for
attracting talent and supporting economic growth. While most in-demand occupations in this wage range require a
bachelor’s degree or higher, there are notable exceptions that underscore the value of technical skills and
experience in specific trades.
FIGURE 8: Top Ten Occupations Earning Over $65,000, 2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp
MT Median
Wage
1 General and
Operations Managers Bach 5+ yrs 130 260 570 970 $84,990
2 Registered Nurses Bach 130 380 230 740 $79,170
3
First-Line Supervisors
of Construction
Trades and Extraction
Workers
HSE 5+ yrs 130 210 290 640 $76,130
4 Accountants and
Auditors Bach 60 140 210 400 $67,190
5 Managers, All Other Bach <5 yrs 50 110 150 310 $100,920
6 Medical and Health
Services Managers Bach <5 yrs 90 80 110 270 $102,910
7 Plumbers, Pipefitters,
and Steamfitters HSE Appren 50 80 140 270 $77,520
8
First-Line Supervisors
of Mechanics,
Installers, and
Repairers
HSE <5 yrs 30 110 120 260 $73,320
9
Market Research
Analysts and
Marketing Specialists
Bach 40 60 120 230 $69,380
10 Software Developers Bach 80 40 90 220 $109,270
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033. Notes: HSE = High school diploma or equivalent; Appren = Apprenticeship; Bach =
Bach degree; 5+ yrs = five or more years of experience; <5 yrs = less than five years of experience.
At the top of the list are general and operations managers, with 970 annual openings and a median wage of
$84,990. This role typically requires a bachelor's degree and over five years of work experience. Registered nurses
follow closely, with 740 annual openings and a median wage of $79,170, reflecting the high demand for healthcare
professionals.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 16
First-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers, who oversee construction projects and ensure
safety and efficiency, have 640 annual openings and command a median wage of $76,130. This role usually
requires a high school diploma and significant field experience. Accountants and auditors, essential for maintaining
financial accuracy and compliance, have 400 annual openings and a median wage of $67,190.
Medical and health services managers, requiring a bachelor's degree and less than five years of experience, have
270 annual openings and offer a median wage of $102,910. Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters have 270
annual openings with a median wage of $77,520, requiring a high school diploma and apprenticeship training.
Managers in various other roles, requiring a bachelor's degree and less than five years of experience, have 310
annual openings with a median wage of $100,920. First-line supervisors of mechanics, installers, and repairers,
with 260 annual openings and a median wage of $73,320, typically need a high school diploma and less than five
years of experience.
Market research analysts and marketing specialists, requiring a bachelor's degree, have 230 annual openings and a
median wage of $69,380. Software developers, offering 220 annual openings and a high median wage of
$109,270, highlight the demand for advanced technical skills in the state.
Occupational Demand – Education Level
Most of Montana’s projected job openings are in occupations that do not require post-secondary education. These
jobs often offer lower pay and have high turnover rates as workers gain skills and advance in their careers to longer-
term, more stable employment. Figure 9 illustrates that worker demand and average wages vary significantly based
on the minimum education required for the occupation.
Over the next decade, it is projected that 72% of all job openings (51,190 per year) will be in jobs requiring a high
school education or less. Specifically, 24,030 annual openings will be for roles requiring less than a high school
education, with an average annual wage of $34,564. Additionally, 27,160 annual openings will be for positions
requiring a high school diploma, with an average annual wage of $49,320.
Occupations that require some post-secondary education but less than a bachelor's degree account for another
8,290 annual openings. These include roles requiring postsecondary non-degree awards and associate degrees,
with average wages of $50,815 and $51,060, respectively. Another 10,290 annual openings will be in occupations
that require a bachelor’s degree, offering a significantly higher average wage of $81,267.
Only 2% of annual job openings will be in occupations requiring a degree beyond a bachelor's degree, but these
roles offer the highest wages. Occupations requiring a master’s degree have 900 annual openings with an average
wage of $82,274, while those requiring a professional or doctoral degree have 860 annual openings with an
average wage of $130,255.
Wages increase with education level, highlighting the financial benefits of higher education. The average wage for
occupations requiring a high school education is $49,320, while occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree offer an
average wage of $81,267. For roles requiring a master’s degree, the average wage rises to $82,274, and for those
needing a professional or doctoral degree, the average wage is $130,255.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 17
FIGURE 9: Job Openings by Minimum Education Level, 2023-2033
Annual Openings
Minimum Education New Jobs Exits Transfers Total Openings MT Average Annual Wage
<HSE 1,400 10,310 12,320 24,030 $34,564
HSE 2,370 10,860 13,940 27,160 $49,320
PS ND 470 1,700 2,230 4,400 $50,815
SC AS 270 1,650 1,970 3,890 $51,060
Bach 1,440 3,660 5,190 10,290 $81,267
Master 180 340 380 900 $82,274
Phd or Prof 190 410 260 860 $130,255
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033. Notes: <HSE = less than high school diploma; HSE = High school diploma or
equivalent; SC AS = Some college or Associate's; PS ND = Postsecondary no degree; Appren = Apprenticeship; Bach = Bach degree; Master
= Master’s degree; PhD or Prof = Doctoral or professional degree.
Montana's occupational distribution by minimum education is expected to remain consistent over time. Jobs
requiring a high school education or less are expected to make up approximately 62% of employment in 2023 and
2033 (Figure 10). There is more turnover in lower-wage, lower-education occupations, which accounts for the larger
share of openings (72%) compared to employment (62%). In 2033, it is expected that more than 38% of workers
will require some post-secondary education.
34%
24%
24%
38%
38%
38%
6%
6%
6%
5%
7%
6%
14%
20%
21%
1%
2%
2%
1%
3%
3%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Annual Openings
2023 Employment
2033 Employment
FIGURE 10:Employment and Job Openings By Minimum Education
<HSE HSE PS ND SC AS Bach Master Phd or Prof
Source:MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 18
Using minimum education requirements for workforce planning should be approached with caution. While they may
indicate the lowest level of training needed to enter an occupation, additional education and training is often
necessary to progress in a career and achieve mastery of job duties. A survey of the typical education of workers in
many occupations shows that workers tend to have higher levels of education than the minimum requirements
suggest.1 Employers who hire workers at the minimum level should expect to provide further training to bring these
employees up to the productivity levels of the current and previous workforce. Minimum education requirements
suggest that only 36% of jobs require education beyond a high school degree, though 59% of workers who fill
occupations have an education beyond a high school degree.
Workforce planners prioritize jobs that require postsecondary education due to the extensive preparation and
training involved. Higher education levels generally result in higher wages and improved productivity, which can
significantly benefit Montana's economy. Figure 11 highlights the top occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree or
higher.
General and operations managers are the most in-demand, with 970 annual openings and a median wage of
$84,990. This role typically requires a bachelor's degree and over five years of work experience. Registered nurses
follow closely, with 740 annual openings and a median wage of $79,170, reflecting the high demand for healthcare
professionals.
Accountants and auditors have 400 annual openings and offer a median wage of $67,190. This occupation
requires a bachelor's degree and is crucial for maintaining financial accuracy and compliance in various industries.
Another significant role is that of business operations specialists, with 410 annual openings and a median wage of
$63,960, demonstrating the need for expertise in improving organizational efficiency.
Medical and health services managers, requiring a bachelor's degree and less than five years of experience, have
270 annual openings and the highest median wage in this list at $102,910. This role is vital for overseeing
healthcare facilities and ensuring efficient operations.
1 Based on occupational employment and O*NET Typical Education Survey.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 19
FIGURE 11: Top Ten Occupations Requiring a Bachelor's Degree or Higher, 2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp
New
Jobs Exits Transfers Total
Openings
MT Median
Wage
1 General and Operations
Managers Bach 5+ yrs 130 260 570 970 $84,990
2 Registered Nurses Bach 130 380 230 740 $79,170
3 Business Operations
Specialists, All Other Bach 40 150 230 410 $63,960
4 Accountants and
Auditors Bach 60 140 210 400 $67,190
5
Elementary School
Teachers, Except
Special Education
Bach 20 160 150 330 $61,080
6 Managers, All Other Bach <5 yrs 50 110 150 310 $100,920
7 Medical and Health
Services Managers Bach <5 yrs 90 80 110 270 $102,910
8
Secondary School
Teachers, Except
Special Ed & CTE
Bach 10 110 130 250 $52,730
9
Substance Abuse,
Behavioral Disorder,
and Mental Health
Counselors
Bach 60 80 110 250 $52,490
10 Coaches and Scouts Bach 20 90 120 230 $41,740
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033. Notes: Bach = Bach degree; 5+ yrs = five or more years of experience; <5 yrs = less
than five years of experience.
For individuals willing to pursue post-secondary education without committing to the four years typically required for
a bachelor's degree, many lucrative occupations are available. These roles often require some college education, an
associate's degree, or specialized training programs. Figure 12 highlights the top ten occupations in Montana that
require some postsecondary education but less than a bachelor's degree, projected from 2023 to 2033.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 20
FIGURE 12: Top Ten Occupations Requiring Some Postsecondary Education, but Less Than a Bachelor's Degree,
2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp
New
Jobs Exits Transfers Total
Openings
MT Median
Wage
1
Bookkeeping,
Accounting, and
Auditing Clerks
SC AS MT OJT 30 610 480 1,120 $42,710
2 Heavy and Tractor-
Trailer Truck Drivers PS ND ST OJT 100 390 500 980 $56,610
3 Nursing Assistants PS ND 60 360 440 860 $37,970
4 Computer User
Support Specialists SC AS MT OJT 60 210 350 620 $50,890
5
Teaching Assistants,
Except
Postsecondary
SC AS 10 250 260 520 $33,800
6 Medical Assistants PS ND 50 110 180 340 $44,040
7
Automotive Service
Technicians and
Mechanics
PS ND ST OJT 30 100 150 280 $48,790
8 Dental Assistants PS ND 20 90 140 250 $44,400
9
Hairdressers,
Hairstylists, and
Cosmetologists
PS ND 30 100 120 250 $34,830
10
Forest and
Conservation
Technicians
SC AS 0 40 140 190 $51,880
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033. Notes: SC AS = Some college or Associate's; PS ND = Postsecondary no degree; ST OJT
= short-term on-the-job training; MT OJT = medium-term on-the-job training.
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks are the most in-demand in this category, requiring medium-term on-
the-job training and offering 1,120 annual openings with a median wage of $42,710. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck
drivers also see high demand, with 980 annual openings and a median wage of $56,610, making it one of the
highest-paying occupations in this category.
Another notable occupation is computer user support specialists, which requires some college or an associate's
degree and medium-term on-the-job training, with 620 annual openings and a median wage of $50,890. Similarly,
automotive service technicians and mechanics have 280 annual openings and offer a median wage of $48,790,
reflecting the consistent demand for skilled trades in the automotive industry.
Many in-demand occupations in Montana only require a high school diploma or less and still offer high wages.
These positions often require some level of prior work experience, one month to one year of on-the-job training, or a
registered apprenticeship credential. Figure 13 illustrates the top occupations that earn $45,000 or more and
require a high school diploma or less.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 21
FIGURE 13: Top Ten Occupations Earning Over $45,000 that Require a High School Education or Less, 2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp
New
Jobs Exits Transfers Total
Openings
MT Median
Wage
1 Construction Laborers <HSE ST OJT 150 220 330 700 $47,590
2 Carpenters HSE Appren 130 230 310 670 $50,340
3 First-Line Supervisors
of Retail Sales Workers HSE <5 yrs 30 240 370 640 $47,480
4
First-Line Supervisors
of Construction Trades
and Extraction Workers
HSE 5+ yrs 130 210 290 640 $76,130
5
Sales Reps, Wholesale
and Manufacturing,
Except Technical and
Scientific Products
HSE MT OJT 50 150 250 460 $57,470
6
First-Line Supervisors
of Office and Admin
Support Workers
HSE <5 yrs 10 190 240 440 $59,230
7
Operating Engineers
and Other Construction
Equipment Operators
HSE MT OJT 80 140 220 430 $58,550
8 Electricians HSE Appren 80 120 190 380 $64,590
9 Plumbers, Pipefitters,
and Steamfitters HSE Appren 50 80 140 270 $77,520
10 Logging Equipment
Operators HSE MT OJT 30 80 160 270 $50,360
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections. 2023-2033. Notes: <HSE = less than high school diploma; HSE = High school diploma or
equivalent; Appren = Apprenticeship; ST OJT = short-term on-the-job training; MT OJT = medium-term on-the-job training; 5+ yrs = five or
more years of experience; <5 yrs = less than five years of experience.
Construction laborers top the list with 700 annual openings and a median wage of $47,590. This role requires
short-term on-the-job training and offers significant employment opportunities. Carpenters, part of Montana’s
registered apprentice program, have 670 annual openings and a median wage of $50,340, reflecting the demand
for skilled trades in the construction industry. Similarly, electricians and plumbers, both requiring apprenticeship
training, have 380 and 270 annual openings, respectively, with median wages of $64,590 for electricians and
$77,520 for plumbers.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 22
Supervisory roles also feature prominently among high-wage occupations. First-line supervisors of retail sales
workers have 640 annual openings and a median wage of $47,480, while first-line supervisors of construction
trades and extraction workers enjoy a median wage of $76,130 with 640 annual openings. These positions typically
require several years of work experience in addition to a high school diploma.
Obtaining an advanced degree can lead to significant wage gains and open up opportunities in high-demand fields.
Montana offers numerous such opportunities, particularly in healthcare, legal, and educational sectors. Figure 14
highlights the top ten occupations requiring an advanced degree by projected annual openings from 2023 to 2033.
FIGURE 14: Top Ten Occupations Requiring an Advanced Degree, 2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp
New
Jobs Exits Transfers Total
Openings
MT Median
Wage
1 Lawyers Phd or
Prof 40 70 40 160 $94,770
2 Nurse Practitioners Master 50 20 20 100 $127,570
3 Physical Therapists Phd or
Prof 30 30 20 90 $85,020
4 Healthcare Social
Workers Master Intern 10 30 40 80 $58,060
5 Physician Assistants Master 30 20 20 70 $131,340
6 Pharmacists Phd or
Prof 10 30 20 70 $133,480
7 Education
Administrators, K-12 Master 5+ yrs 0 20 30 60 $98,490
8 Librarians and Media
Collections Specialists Master 0 30 20 60 $59,970
9 Ed, Guidance, Career
Counselors & Advisors Master 0 20 30 60 $59,860
10 Health Teachers,
Postsecondary
Phd or
Prof <5 yrs 10 20 20 50 $101,860
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033. Notes: Intern = Internship; Master = Master’s degree; PhD or Prof = Doctoral or
professional degree; 5+ yrs = five or more years of experience; <5 yrs = less than five years of experience.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 23
Lawyers lead the list with 160 annual openings and a median wage of $94,770. This profession typically requires a
professional degree and provides a solid return on investment in education. Nurse practitioners, who need a
master's degree, are also in high demand, with 100 annual openings and a median wage of $127,570. This role
offers a substantial wage premium for advanced education and plays a critical part in the healthcare system.
Physical therapists, requiring a professional degree, have 90 annual openings and a median wage of $85,020,
reflecting the growing need for rehabilitation services in an aging population. Physician assistants and pharmacists,
both requiring master's or professional degrees, also offer lucrative wages at $131,340 and $133,480,
respectively.
Healthcare Occupations in High Demand
Making up 15% of payroll employment, healthcare and social assistance is Montana’s largest industry by
employment and is expected to see significant growth from 2023 to 2033. The two main factors driving the
increased demand for healthcare workers are Montana's aging population and continued in-migration. Montana’s
healthcare industry is projected to add 1,310 new jobs per year, on average, over the next decade. Figure 15
illustrates the top 10 healthcare occupations by the number of annual openings.
FIGURE 15: Top Ten Healthcare Occupations, 2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp
New
Jobs Exits Transfers Total
Openings
MT Median
Wage
1 Home Health and
Personal Care Aides HSE ST OJT 280 840 700 1,830 $30,740
2 Nursing Assistants PS ND 60 360 440 860 $37,970
3 Registered Nurses Bach 130 380 230 740 $79,170
4 Medical Assistants PS ND 50 110 180 340 $44,040
5 Dental Assistants PS ND 20 90 140 250 $44,400
6 Licensed Practical and
Vocational Nurses PS ND 30 90 80 190 $55,840
7
Veterinary Assistants
and Laboratory Animal
Caretakers
HSE ST OJT 20 40 90 150 $35,490
8 Pharmacy Technicians HSE MT OJT 20 60 70 150 $43,050
9 Massage Therapists PS ND 20 40 40 100 $59,400
10 Nurse Practitioners Master 50 20 20 100 $127,570
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033. Notes: HSE = High school diploma or equivalent; PS ND = Postsecondary no degree;
Bach = Bach degree; Master = Master’s degree; ST OJT = short-term on-the-job training; MT OJT = medium-term on-the-job training.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 24
The occupation with the most openings is home health and personal care aides, requiring a high school education
and short-term on-the-job training, with 1,830 annual openings and a median wage of $30,740. Other key
occupations include nursing assistants, with 860 annual openings and a median wage of $37,970, and registered
nurses, with 740 annual openings and a median wage of $79,170. Many top healthcare occupations require some
post-secondary education, but not necessarily a bachelor's degree.
Occupational Demand – STEM
The STEM field (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) is one of the most rapidly growing and highest-
paying areas of the economy. Jobs in STEM will be vital to Montana’s economic growth. Projected openings for
Montana’s top STEM occupations are shown in Figure 16. These occupations include healthcare roles, computer-
related jobs, and engineering positions. Notable computer occupations topping the list include computer user
support specialists, with 620 annual openings and a median wage of $50,890, and software developers, with 220
annual openings and a median wage of $109,270. Other significant occupations include medical and health
services managers, with 270 annual openings and a median wage of $102,910, civil engineers, with 140 annual
openings and a median wage of $80,140, and nurse practitioners, with 100 annual openings and a median wage
of $127,570.
FIGURE 16: Top Ten STEM Occupations Montana, 2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp
New
Jobs Exits Transfers Total
Openings
MT Median
Wage
1 Registered Nurses Bach 130 380 230 740 $79,170
2 Computer User Support
Specialists SC AS MT OJT 60 210 350 620 $50,890
3 Medical and Health
Services Managers Bach <5 yrs 90 80 110 270 $102,910
4 Software Developers Bach 80 40 90 220 $109,270
5 Forest and Conservation
Techs SC AS 0 40 140 190 $51,880
6 Licensed Practical and
Vocational Nurses PS ND 30 90 80 190 $55,840
7 Computer Network
Support Specialists SC AS MT OJT 20 60 100 180 $59,240
8 Civil Engineers Bach 20 40 70 140 $80,140
9 Nurse Practitioners Master 50 20 20 100 $127,570
10 Dental Hygienists SC AS 20 50 20 90 $90,210
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033. Notes: SC AS = Some college or Associate's; PS ND = Postsecondary no degree; Bach
= Bach degree; Master = Master’s degree; MT OJT = medium-term on-the-job training; <5 yrs = less than five years of experience.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 25
Occupational Demand - Apprenticeships
Apprenticeships are a crucial and expanding training model for building a skilled workforce in Montana. The state's
apprenticeship program continues to train workers for skilled, high-wage jobs through partnerships with business
sponsors across the state. Figure 17 highlights the top ten apprenticeable occupations by projected annual
openings from 2023 to 2033. While not every position is currently filled through apprenticeships, these occupations
have significant potential for apprenticeship training. The leading occupations include restaurant cooks,
bookkeeping and accounting clerks, and heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers.
FIGURE 17: Top Ten Occupations with Apprenticeships in Montana, 2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp
New
Jobs Exits Transfers Total
Openings
MT Median
Wage
1 Cooks, Restaurant <HSE MT OJT 210 530 630 1,370 $34,880
2
Bookkeeping,
Accounting, and
Auditing Clerks
SC AS MT OJT 30 610 480 1,120 $42,710
3 Heavy and Tractor-
Trailer Truck Drivers PS ND ST OJT 100 390 500 980 $56,610
4 Nursing Assistants PS ND 60 360 440 860 $37,970
5 Registered Nurses Bach 130 380 230 740 $79,170
6 Construction Laborers <HSE ST OJT 150 220 330 700 $47,590
7 Carpenters HSE Appren 130 230 310 670 $50,340
8 Computer User
Support Specialists SC AS MT OJT 60 210 350 620 $50,890
9
Maintenance and
Repair Workers,
General
HSE MT OJT 60 250 260 570 $42,000
10 Childcare Workers HSE ST OJT 20 210 270 490 $29,090
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections, 2023-2033. Notes: <HSE = less than high school diploma; HSE = High school diploma or
equivalent; SC AS = Some college or Associate's; PS ND = Postsecondary no degree; Appren = Apprenticeship; Bach = Bach degree; ST OJT =
short-term on-the-job training; MT OJT = medium-term on-the-job training.
Apprenticeship continues to grow in popularity in Montana, providing valuable training for high-wage, high-demand
occupations. However, there is still significant potential for expansion into other lucrative fields that currently lack
apprenticeship programs. Figure 18 highlights the top ten apprenticeable occupations in the U.S. that are not yet
apprenticed in Montana but offer median wages above $45,000.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 26
The most in-demand occupation is general and operations managers, with 970 annual openings and a median
wage of $84,990. This is followed by first-line supervisors of retail sales workers, with 640 annual openings and a
median wage of $47,480, and accountants and auditors, with 400 annual openings and a median wage of
$67,190.
FIGURE 18: Top Ten U.S. Apprenticeable Occupations Not Yet Apprenticed in Montana, 2023-2033
Minimum
Requirements Annual Openings
Rank Occupation Educ Work
Exp
New
Jobs Exits Transfers Total
Openings
MT
Median
Wage
1 General and Operations
Managers Bach 5+ yrs 130 260 570 970 $84,990
2 First-Line Supervisors of
Retail Sales Workers HSE <5 yrs 30 240 370 640 $47,480
3 Accountants and
Auditors Bach 60 140 210 400 $67,190
4
First-Line Supervisors of
Mechanics, Installers,
and Repairers
HSE <5 yrs 30 110 120 260 $73,320
5
Market Research
Analysts and Marketing
Specialists
Bach 40 60 120 230 $69,380
6 Human Resources
Specialists Bach 30 70 130 220 $58,560
7 Software Developers Bach 80 40 90 220 $109,270
8 Food Service Managers HSE ST OJT 20 60 120 200 $59,740
8 Management Analysts Bach <5 yrs 30 70 90 200 $78,660
10 Project Management
Specialists Bach 40 50 100 180 $79,160
Source: MTDLI Employment Projections. 2023-2033. Notes: HSE = High school diploma or equivalent; Bach = Bach degree; ST OJT = short-
term on-the-job training; 5+ yrs = five or more years of experience; <5 yrs = less than five years of experience.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 27
Conclusion
Montana's labor market will continue to experience robust demand for workers, driven by long-term employment
growth and significant labor force exits due to an aging population. This publication from the Montana Department
of Labor & Industry outlines critical occupations projected to be in high demand and identifies key areas for
workforce training. It serves as an essential guide for individuals considering a career change or starting their career
journey, offering valuable insights to make informed decisions and explore pathways to well-paying, in-demand
jobs. For a more interactive experience with the projections data, visit our projections dashboard at
lmi.mt.gov/Projections.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 28
Appendix A - Methodology
The Data and Operations Bureau of the Montana Department of Labor & Industry produces projections of
employment growth by industry and occupation. The Department uses the methodologies recommended by the U.S.
Department of Labor, ensuring accurate and consistent methodology across timelines and the most updated
practices used among states.
Employment Projections
The employment projections are produced as a part of a contract with the Employment and Training Administration
of the U.S. Department of Labor using the nationally recommended methodology for employment forecasts and the
programs provided by the Projections Managing Partnership. The employment projections are published on the state
labor market information website at lmi.mt.gov, and are also published nationally on the Employment and Training
Administration’s website at projectionscentral.com.
The projections are based on historic employment data from January 1990 to December 2023. The primary data
source for the Montana industry employment projections is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
(QCEW), which is published jointly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Montana Department of Labor &
Industry. The QCEW covers payroll employment in Montana and is considered the most accurate data source
because it is an actual count of employment from the wage records reported to Unemployment Insurance. The
QCEW data is aggregated into the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industries. For
Montana’s statewide and regional forecasts industry employment projections, two-digit NAICS industries are used.
All industries include only private employment except for the healthcare and education industries, which includes
both public and private employment. Therefore, the government industry includes all public employment except for
workers in the healthcare and education industries. The treatment of public healthcare and education employment
is consistent with national recommendations from the Employment and Training Administration of the U.S.
Department of Labor.
Industry forecasts are developed by comparing various functional forms of time series models, which use past
employment trends to predict employment in the future, with fit and analyst insight determining the appropriate
model. Fit is determined using historic data. Industry projections are compared against the Montana forecasts
developed by S&P Global and against other publicly available employment forecasts.
The total employment level is also estimated using a time series model. Data from the Local Area Unemployment
Statistics (LAUS) is used to produce the total employment projection. The LAUS data is a model-based estimate
that utilizes the national Current Population Survey to calculate the labor force and employment in Montana.
Conceptually, the difference between the LAUS total employment estimate and the QCEW payroll employment
number is the level of self-employment in Montana. Therefore, the difference between the two forecasts becomes
the forecast for self-employment in Montana. The total employment and payroll employment forecasts are
estimated using both a top-down and bottom-up approach with manual adjustment for internal consistency of
forecasts.
Once industry forecasts are finalized, the industry employment is disaggregated into occupations using a third data
source, the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES). The OES is a survey-based employment estimate that
categorizes employment by occupation. The OES provides staffing patterns for each industry, which are used to
disaggregate the industry projections into each occupation. For example, if registered nurses are currently 12% of
the healthcare industry and 3% of the education industry, the forecast for the occupation of registered nurses would
sum 12% of the expected employment in healthcare and 3% of the expected employment in education.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 29
However, this process is complicated by change factors, which adjust the staffing patterns for expected changes in
occupational mix in the upcoming ten years. The change factors are calculated at the national level by the Bureau
of Labor Statistics with some occupations edited at the state level to adapt to Montana’s economic conditions.
Change factors adjust the current staffing patterns for predicted changes in future business practices. For example,
if registered nurses comprise 12% of the healthcare industry in the current timeframe but are expected to comprise
14% of the healthcare industry in future years, the change factor would slowly change the amount of projected
healthcare employment dedicated to registered nurses over the ten-year time frame.
The self-employed staffing pattern is developed following the averages of the state and national occupational data
adjusted for the likelihood of the occupation being self-employed. The staffing pattern is automatically generated
using national and state level data but is also manually adjusted using analyst insight. Analysts base those
adjustments on self-employed occupation data from the Current Population Survey, data on farmers from the U.S.
Department of Agriculture, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s personal income accounts.
The Montana Department of Labor & Industry does not produce error ranges for the employment forecasts, although
greater consistency is one of the criteria used when selecting the appropriate time series model for each industry.
Some industries and occupations have stable growth paths that can be predicted with a great deal of certainty,
while other industries are more susceptible to changing economic conditions. Employment growth in retail trade has
continued a very steady pace over the last twenty years as Montana’s population has grown. The constant steady
growth gives greater confidence in the forecasted employment levels. In contrast, employment in the mining
industry varies considerably with changing global prices for oil, energy, and commodities. Price changes at the
global level are often difficult to predict, making the employment forecast for this industry uncertain.
Knowing about forecast uncertainty helps to interpret the employment forecasts more appropriately. As an example,
the 2023-2033 employment forecasts suggested there will be about 740 openings annually for registered nurses.
In comparison, we expect only 250 openings per year for dental assistants. While neither estimate is likely to be
correct, there is a greater demand for nurses than dental assistants (although both occupations are growing). The
greater demand for nurses will persist even if the economy undergoes a structural shift or experiences a large
recession. The relative demand of occupations is more stable and of greater certainty than the numerical demand.
Additional caveats are important to understand the projections as well. The employment projections do not account
for current unfilled positions, but for the new job openings that are expected in the future. For example, if there were
currently 500 unfilled openings for welders in Montana, and roughly 60 openings are expected next year, the worker
demand here only presents the 60 openings expected, not the total 520 openings available for workers in the next
year. In general, occupations with longer training times and faster expected growth will also be the occupations with
greater unfilled demand.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 30
Appendix B – Accuracy of Past Forecasts
Employment projections are updated annually as part of a contract with the Employment and Training
Administration of the U.S. Department of Labor. The use of nationally recommended methodologies ensures
accuracy and consistency across timelines, reflecting the most updated practices used among states. On average,
MTDLI’s total employment projection is off by approximately 2% after two years (Figure 19). Prior to the pandemic,
forecasts tended to overestimate employment. Following 2020, projections have been lower than actual
employment, likely due to unprecedented in-migration and the unexpectedly rapid recovery from the pandemic's
effects.
FIGURE 19: MTDLI Total Employment Error
2.1%1.9%
0.3%
-2.6%
0.8%
-3.4%-3.9%
-2.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2014 to
2016
2015 to
2017
2016 to
2018
2017 to
2019
2018 to
2020
2019 to
2021
2020 to
2022
2021 to
2023
Source: MTDLI Two-year projections 2014-2021.
Montana’s employment projection has been off by less than 1% a year later. As the economy has returned to more
stable growth post-pandemic, the total employment forecast for 2023 was off by just 0.67% (Figure 20). However,
many industries were under-projected as employment growth in 2023 continues to outpace expectations. This surge
in growth was partially due to high in-migration and the economy's unexpected resilience in the face of high
inflation and rising interest rates. Notable overperforming industries included healthcare, education, arts &
entertainment, wholesale trade, and professional and technical industries.
Montana Employment Projections 2023-2033 | 31
FIGURE 20: Accuracy of 2022-2032 Industry Forecasts in 2023
Industry
2022-2032
Projection for
2023
Actual
2023
Projection
Minus
Actual
%
Difference
(Absolute
Value)
Retail Trade 62,199 62,442 -243 0.39%
Professional & Technical 28,258 28,386 -128 0.45%
Other 18,713 18,828 -115 0.61%
Construction 37,162 36,814 348 0.95%
Admin & Support Services 20,786 21,012 -226 1.08%
Wholesale Trade 18,650 18,864 -214 1.13%
Agriculture 7,031 6,940 91 1.31%
Accommodation & Food 59,126 59,928 -802 1.34%
Local Government 21,325 21,643 -318 1.47%
Finance 17,327 17,063 264 1.55%
Healthcare 75,460 76,689 -1,229 1.60%
Education 40,118 40,780 -662 1.62%
Arts & Entertainment 12,314 12,528 -214 1.71%
Postal Service 1,961 1,996 -35 1.75%
Transportation & Warehousing 16,630 16,331 299 1.83%
Manufacturing 22,244 21,776 468 2.15%
Utilities 2,824 2,888 -64 2.22%
Information 5,744 5,603 141 2.52%
Real Estate 7,114 6,925 189 2.73%
Management 2,041 2,103 -62 2.95%
State Government 12,254 12,642 -388 3.07%
Federal Government 9,677 10,157 -480 4.73%
Mining 6,434 6,768 -334 4.93%
Payroll Employment 506,627 510,626 -3,999 0.78%
Total Employment 561,262 557,510 3,752 0.67%
Source: MTDLI QCEW and 2022-2032 Employment Projections