HomeMy WebLinkAboutBozeman MT Pop and Housing Forecast_8-14-25
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
DRAFT REPORT
Prepared for: Prepared by:
City of Bozeman Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
August 14, 2025
EPS #253073
Table of Contents
1. Introduction and Summary of Findings 1
Summary of Findings .............................................................................................................................................................. 1
Forecast Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................... 4
2. Demographic Trends 14
Population ................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Households .............................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Housing Units ......................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Household Size Factors ...................................................................................................................................................... 27
3. Employment Trends 30
Employment ............................................................................................................................................................................ 30
Industry Trends ..................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Industry Trends by Location ............................................................................................................................................. 39
4. Market Trends 40
Multi-Household Market Trends .................................................................................................................................... 40
Office Trends .......................................................................................................................................................................... 43
5. Baseline 20-Year Forecast 45
Employment Forecast ......................................................................................................................................................... 45
Population Forecast ............................................................................................................................................................. 46
Housing Demand Forecast ................................................................................................................................................ 49
6. Amenity Driven 20-Year Forecast 51
Employment Forecast ......................................................................................................................................................... 51
Population Forecast ............................................................................................................................................................. 52
Housing Demand Forecast ................................................................................................................................................ 54
7. Constrained City 20-Year Forecast 57
Employment Forecast ......................................................................................................................................................... 57
Population Forecast ............................................................................................................................................................. 58
Housing Demand Forecast ................................................................................................................................................ 61
List of Tables
Table 1. Gallatin County Forecasts, Summary Table ...................................................................................................... 2
Table 2. City of Bozeman Forecasts, Summary Table ..................................................................................................... 3
Table 3. Total Employees Living and Working in Gallatin County, 2025-2045 .................................................... 8
Table 4. Tri-County Population Trends, 2010-2023 ................................................................................................... 14
Table 5. Gallatin County Subareas Population Trends, 2010-2023 ...................................................................... 15
Table 6. Comparison Cities in Population, 2010-2023 ............................................................................................... 15
Table 7. Tri-County Household Trends, 2010-2023 ................................................................................................... 16
Table 8. Gallatin County Subareas Household Trends, 2010-2023 ...................................................................... 17
Table 9. Comparison Cities in Households, 2010-2023 ............................................................................................. 17
Table 10. Tri-County Housing Unit Trends, 2010-2023 ............................................................................................... 18
Table 11. Gallatin County Subareas Housing Unit Trends, 2010-2023 .................................................................. 19
Table 12. Comparison Cities in Housing Units, 2010-2023 ........................................................................................ 19
Table 13. Tri-County Total Vacant Units, 2010-2023 ................................................................................................... 20
Table 14. Gallatin County Subareas Vacant Unit Trends, 2010-2023 .................................................................... 22
Table 15. Tri-County Population to Housing Unit Ratio, 2010-2023 ...................................................................... 29
Table 16. Gallatin County Subareas Population to Housing Unit Ratio, 2010-2023 ......................................... 29
Table 17. Tri-County Total Covered Employment Trends, 2010-2024 .................................................................. 30
Table 18. Gallatin County Subareas Total Covered Employment Trends, 2010-2024 ..................................... 31
Table 19. Comparison Cites in Total Employment, 2010-2024 ................................................................................. 31
Table 20. Gallatin County Employment by NAICS, 2010-2024 ................................................................................. 32
Table 21. Gallatin County Wages by NAICS, 2010-2024 ............................................................................................. 34
Table 22. Bozeman Employment by NAICS, 2010-2024 .............................................................................................. 35
Table 23. Bozeman Wages by NAICS, 2010-2024 .......................................................................................................... 37
Table 24. Percent of Gallatin County Employees by NAICS in Bozeman, 2010-2024 ...................................... 39
Table 25. Multi-Household Inventory (Units), 2010-2025 Q2 ................................................................................... 40
Table 26. Office Inventory (Sq. Ft.), 2010-2025 Q2 ....................................................................................................... 43
Table 27. Baseline Employment Forecast 2025-2045 .................................................................................................. 45
Table 28. Baseline Population Forecast 2025-2045 ..................................................................................................... 46
Table 29. Baseline Service Population Forecast 2025-2045 ...................................................................................... 47
Table 30. Baseline Population Forecast, Subareas 2025-2045 ................................................................................. 48
Table 31. Baseline Housing Demand Forecast, Gallatin County ............................................................................... 49
Table 32. Baseline Housing Demand Forecast, The Triangle Area 2025-2045 .................................................. 50
Table 33. Amenity-Driven Employment Forecast, 2025-2045 .................................................................................. 51
Table 34. Amenity-Driven Population Forecast, 2025-2045 ..................................................................................... 52
Table 35. Amenity-Driven Service Population Forecast 2025-2045 ....................................................................... 52
Table 36. Amenity-Driven Population Forecast, Subareas, 2025-2045 ................................................................ 53
Table 37. Amenity-Driven Housing Unit Demand Forecast, 2025-2045 ............................................................... 54
Table 38. Amenity-Driven Housing Unit Demand Forecast, The Triangle Area, 2025-2045 ......................... 56
Table 39. Constrained City Employment Forecast 2025-2045 ................................................................................. 57
Table 40. Constrained City Population Forecast 2025-2045 .................................................................................... 58
Table 41. Constrained City Service Population Forecast 2025-2045 ..................................................................... 58
Table 42. Forecasted Change in Population Growth Capture, 2025-2045 ........................................................... 59
Table 43. Constrained City Population Forecast, Subareas 2025-2045 ................................................................ 60
Table 44. Share of County Population by Subarea, 2025-2045 ................................................................................ 60
Table 45. Constrained City Housing Unit Demand Forecast 2025-2045 .............................................................. 61
Table 46. Constrained City Housing Unit Demand Forecast, The Triangle Area 2025-2045 ........................ 62
Table 47. City of Belgrade Forecasts, Summary Table ..................................................................................................... 2
Table 48. Four Corners CDP Forecasts, Summary Table ................................................................................................ 3
List of Figures
Figure 1. Regional Map ................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Figure 2. Gallatin County Subareas Map .............................................................................................................................. 5
Figure 3. Gallatin County Employment Forecast Summary, 2010-2045 .................................................................. 7
Figure 4. Gallatin County Population Forecast Summary, 2010-2045 ..................................................................... 9
Figure 5. Gallatin County Total Housing Units Forecast Summary, 2010-2045 ................................................ 10
Figure 6. Bozeman Total Jobs Forecast Summary, 2010-2045 ................................................................................. 11
Figure 7. Bozeman Total Population Forecast Summary, 2010-2045 .................................................................... 12
Figure 8. Bozeman Total Housing Units Forecast Summary, 2010-2045 ............................................................. 13
Figure 9. Tri-County Vacant Unit Types, 2010 to 2023 ............................................................................................... 21
Figure 10. Gallatin County Subareas Vacant by Type, 2010 to 2023 ........................................................................ 23
Figure 11. Tri-County Vacancy Rates, 2010-2023 ........................................................................................................... 24
Figure 12. Gallatin County Subareas Vacancy Rates, 2010-2023 .............................................................................. 25
Figure 13. Comparison Cities Vacancy Rates, 2010-2023 ............................................................................................ 26
Figure 14. Tri-County Household Size Trends, 2000-2023 .......................................................................................... 27
Figure 15. Gallatin County Subareas Household Size Trends, 2000-2023 ............................................................. 28
Figure 16. Gallatin County Change in Employment by NAICS, 2010-2024 ............................................................ 33
Figure 17. Bozeman Change in Employment by NAICS, 2010-2024 ......................................................................... 36
Figure 18. Top 5 Employment Industries in Gallatin County, 2024 ........................................................................... 38
Figure 19. Bozeman Multi-Household Average Rent per Unit, 2010-2025 Q2 .................................................... 41
Figure 20. Gallatin County Multi-Household Vacancy Rate and Deliveries (Units), 2010-2025 Q2............ 42
Figure 21. Office Gross Rent per Sq. Ft., 2010-2025 Q2 ................................................................................................ 43
Figure 22. Office Vacancy Rates, 2010-2025 Q2 ............................................................................................................. 44
Figure 23. Office Remote Worker Trends 2010-2023 ................................................................................................... 44
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 1 Introduction and Summary of Findings
1. Introduction and Summary of Findings
The City of Bozeman hired Economic & Planning Systems (EPS) to prepare a
population and housing forecast for the City of Bozeman and surrounding Gallatin
County. The 20-year forecast scenarios use population, housing, and employment
data to generate a projection. Three scenarios were developed to show a range of
future possibilities in Bozeman and Gallatin County over the next twenty years.
These scenarios include a Baseline scenario based on historic growth trends, an
Amenity-Driven scenario based on potential demographic changes in Gallatin
County, and a Constrained City scenario that assumes that changes in land use
policy or infrastructure limits reduce the amount of growth the City can
accommodate. The purpose of these scenarios is to show how population and
housing demand are affected by complex market conditions.
Summary of Findings
Based on the three forecast scenarios conducted, there is a range of results. These
findings are summarized below.
1. If current growth trends continue, Gallatin County will gain 64,000 residents, and
Bozeman will gain 28,800 residents from 2025 to 2045.
In the Baseline scenario, Gallatin County is forecast to have 194,000 residents
by 2045. Bozeman is forecast to have 87,400 residents, representing nearly
half of Gallatin County’s total population. The forecasts are based on the
relationships between job growth, labor force demand, and the resulting
housing demand. This analysis shows the relationship between job growth and
the housing supply needed to support the labor force needed to maintain
economic growth.
2. If Gallatin County were to develop with more second homes and have more part-
time residents over the next twenty years, it will gain 27,400 housing units with
4,900 units being second homes.
In the Amenity Driven scenario, Gallatin County is forecast to have a total of
87,000 housing units by 2045. 11,400 units, or approximately 13.1 percent, are
forecast to be either vacant homes or second homes. This results in a forecast
population of 181,500 residents in 2045, with 81,800 residents in Bozeman.
High housing costs may slow population growth in the City but may not slow
housing demand due to the external factors of additional part-time residents
and remote workers.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 2 Introduction and Summary of Findings
3. If Bozeman were to become constrained in its development potential due to cost
and land availability, it would only gain 19,600 residents from 2025 to 2045.
In the Constrained City scenario, Bozeman’s forecast 2045 population is
78,300 residents, with growth slowing to approximately 500 new residents per
year by the forecast sunset year. The reduction of growth in the City implies
that other areas would need to “make up” for some of this to keep up with labor
force demand. Many areas of Gallatin County, including in some municipalities,
lack adequate infrastructure to accommodate significant growth.
4. By 2045, Gallatin County is forecast to have 135,000 jobs, 181,500 to 194,000
residents, and demand for 83,200 to 88,900 housing units between all three
scenarios.
As shown in the summary table below (Table 1), Gallatin County is forecast to
add 44,500 jobs, 51,500 to 64,000 residents, and have demand for an
additional 23,600 to 29,300 housing units between 2025 and 2045.
Table 1. Gallatin County Forecasts, Summary Table
Gallatin County 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Jobs
Baseline 90,500 101,300 114,100 125,300 135,000 44,500 2,225 2.0%
Amenity Driven 90,500 101,300 114,100 125,300 135,000 44,500 2,225 2.0%
City Constrained 90,500 101,300 114,100 125,300 135,000 44,500 2,225 2.0%
Population
Baseline 130,000 145,500 163,800 180,000 194,000 64,000 3,200 2.0%
Amenity Driven 130,000 143,200 158,700 171,300 181,500 51,500 2,575 1.7%
City Constrained 130,000 143,200 158,700 171,300 181,500 51,500 2,575 1.7%
Total Housing Unit Demand
Baseline 59,600 66,700 75,200 82,500 88,900 29,300 1,465 2.0%
Amenity Driven 59,600 66,400 74,400 81,200 87,000 27,400 1,370 1.9%
City Constrained 59,600 65,700 72,700 78,600 83,200 23,600 1,180 1.7%
Occupied Housing Units
Baseline 54,200 60,600 68,300 75,000 80,800 26,600 1,330 2.0%
Amenity Driven 54,200 59,700 66,100 71,400 75,600 21,400 1,070 1.7%
City Constrained 54,200 59,700 66,100 71,400 75,600 21,400 1,070 1.7%
Vacant and Second Homes
Baseline 5,400 6,100 6,900 7,500 8,100 2,700 135 2.0%
Amenity Driven 5,400 6,700 8,300 9,800 11,400 6,000 300 3.8%
City Constrained 5,400 6,000 6,600 7,200 7,600 2,200 110 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 3 Introduction and Summary of Findings
5. By 2045, Bozeman is forecast to have 79,300 jobs, 78,300 to 87,400 residents,
and demand for 38,300 to 42,700 housing units between all three scenarios.
As shown in the summary table below (Table 2), Bozeman is forecast to add
26,100 jobs, 19,600 to 28,800 residents, and have demand for an additional
9,700 to 14,100 housing units between 2025 and 2045.
Table 2. City of Bozeman Forecasts, Summary Table
Bozeman 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Jobs
Baseline 53,200 59,500 67,000 73,600 79,300 26,100 1,305 2.0%
Amenity Driven 53,200 59,500 67,000 73,600 79,300 26,100 1,305 2.0%
City Constrained 53,200 59,500 67,000 73,600 79,300 26,100 1,305 2.0%
Population
Baseline 58,600 65,500 73,800 81,100 87,400 28,800 1,440 2.0%
Amenity Driven 58,600 64,500 71,500 77,200 81,800 23,200 1,160 1.7%
City Constrained 58,700 64,800 71,000 75,400 78,300 19,600 980 1.5%
Total Housing Unit Demand
Baseline 28,600 32,000 36,000 39,600 42,700 14,100 705 2.0%
Amenity Driven 28,600 32,000 35,700 39,200 42,000 13,400 670 1.9%
City Constrained 28,600 31,700 34,600 36,700 38,300 9,700 485 1.5%
Occupied Housing Units
Baseline 26,800 29,900 33,700 37,000 39,900 13,100 655 2.0%
Amenity Driven 26,800 29,500 32,600 35,300 37,400 10,600 530 1.7%
City Constrained 26,800 29,600 32,400 34,400 35,800 9,000 450 1.5%
Vacant and Second Homes
Baseline 1,800 2,100 2,300 2,600 2,800 1,000 50 2.2%
Amenity Driven 1,800 2,500 3,100 3,900 4,600 2,800 140 4.8%
City Constrained 1,800 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,500 700 35 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
Forecast 2025-2045 Change
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4 Introduction and Summary of Findings
Forecast Methodology
To frame the forecasts, demographic and market trends were collected for the “Tri-
County” region, defined as Gallatin County, Broadwater County, and Park County
(Figure 1). Broadwater County and Park County are more sparsely populated than
Gallatin County but have had increased housing pressure in recent years due to
growth in Gallatin County. This issue is emphasized even more when the number of
second homes within Broadwater County and Park County is considered because it
limits the available housing supply to everyday residents. Data from the Tri-County
region is used throughout this analysis to inform the forecast model scenarios.
Figure 1. Regional Map
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 5 Introduction and Summary of Findings
Of particular relevance to the forecast scenarios are the recent demographic and
market trends within Gallatin County. To show the recent changes in different
geographies within Gallatin County, EPS selected six different geographies—
Bozeman, Belgrade, Three Forks, Manhattan, Four Corners CDP (Census-
Designated Place), and Big Sky CDP (Figure 2). The analysis of these individual
subareas is then used to inform the forecast scenario inputs.
Figure 2. Gallatin County Subareas Map
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 6 Introduction and Summary of Findings
Once the recent demographic and market data was analyzed, three different
forecast scenarios were developed—a baseline scenario, an amenity-driven
scenario, and a constrained city scenario. Each scenario is described in detail
below.
Baseline Scenario
The Baseline Scenario forecasts the number of employees living and working in
Gallatin County. The forecast relies on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) covered employment data
(wage and salary jobs), which is escalated using a year-over-year growth rate that
starts at 3.0 percent and tapers to 1.5 percent by the end of the forecast period.
Each year covered employment is adjusted up to account for for sole proprietors
using a constant factor to derive a total jobs figure. Using the total jobs subtotal,
multiple job holders and in-commuters are subtracted using constant factors for
each. The number of employees living and working in Gallatin County is used to
estimate population through a constant employment to population ratio. From
there, County wide housing unit demand is forecasted by applying a constant
population per housing unit factor. At each stage of the forecast, totals for
population and housing unit demand are ascribed to each subarea using the 2024
share of the County total.
Amenity-Driven Scenario
The rationale for this scenario is that rising housing costs, and the growing appeal
of this region to part-time residents, second homeowners, and remote workers
contributes to rising housing costs and reductions in homes available for full-time
residents. As a result, commuting from lower cost areas needs to increase to meet
the labor force demand.
The Amenity-Driven scenario follows the same methodology as the baseline with
adjustments made to the in-commuters and part-time residences factor. Here,
these factors are escalated over the course of the forecast period for both Gallatin
County and the Triangle Subareas, where applicable. For Gallatin County, the in-
commuters factor increases from 6.0 percent to 12.0 percent and the part-time
residence factor increased from 5.0 percent to 10.0 percent. For the subareas, the
part-time residence factor is increased by four times the base year rate by the end
of the forecast period. Belgrade has its rate imputed.
Constrained City Scenario
The methodology for the Constrained City scenario differs from the previous two.
This scenario assumes that Bozeman is no longer capturing as much growth for the
region due to several factors such as cost and land capacity. If Bozeman has less
growth, the regional demand for housing must go elsewhere.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7 Introduction and Summary of Findings
Here, the County employment and County population forecasts are unchanged
from the Amenity-Driven scenario. However, the allocation of population to each
subarea is done using the share of County growth for the period 2000 to 2024
rather than a base year static percentage. Over the forecast period, Bozeman’s
growth capture of County population is reduced from 49.7 percent to 25.0 percent.
As a result, the surrounding communities increase in population and housing unit
demand.
Forecast Summary
Gallatin County
The results of the forecast scenarios varied depending on the scenario and type of
forecast. For Gallatin County jobs, all three scenarios have the same forecast, with
total jobs increasing from 87,815 jobs in 2024 to 135,000 jobs in 2045 (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Gallatin County Employment Forecast Summary, 2010-2045
From this total jobs forecast, the total employees living and working in Gallatin
County is then generated. It results in different totals for two of the three
scenarios, as shown in Table 3. This is due to a slow increase in the in-commuter
rate for both the Amenity-Driven and Constrained City scenarios, resulting in a
lower total amount of employees living and working in Gallatin County. In the
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 8 Introduction and Summary of Findings
Baseline scenario, 38,400 employees are added from 2025 to 2045. In the
Amenity-Driven and Constrained City scenarios, 30,900 employees are added
from 2025 to 2045.
Table 3. Total Employees Living and Working in Gallatin County, 2025-2045
Based on the total employees living and working in Gallatin County, a population
forecast is derived from a population to employee factor. In the Baseline scenario,
this results in the total population increasing by 67,016 residents, from 126,984 in
2024 to 194,000 in 2045 (Figure 4). For the Amenity-Driven and Constrained City
scenarios, total population increases by 54,516 residents from 2024 to 2045.
Gallatin County 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Employees Living & Working in G.C.
Baseline 78,000 87,300 98,300 108,000 116,400 38,400 1,920 2.0%
Amenity Driven 78,000 85,900 95,200 102,800 108,900 30,900 1,545 1.7%
City Constrained 78,000 85,900 95,200 102,800 108,900 30,900 1,545 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\253073-Bozeman MT Population and Housing Forecast\Models\[253073- Employment and Housing Demand 8-13-25.xlsx]T - Live Work Emp
Forecast 2025-2045 Change
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 9 Introduction and Summary of Findings
Figure 4. Gallatin County Population Forecast Summary, 2010-2045
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 10 Introduction and Summary of Findings
From the forecast population, the total housing units needed to support that
population is calculated using average household size, market vacancy rate, and a
part-time residence adjustment. The Baseline scenario uses historic factors, the
Amenity Driven scenario uses a slightly higher market vacancy rate and a gradually
increasing part-time residence factor, and the Constrained City scenario uses a
slighlty higher market vacancy rate but keeps the part-time residence factor the
same as in the Baseline Scenario. This results in three different ranges of
forecasted housing demand from 2024 to 2045, with 31,500 units needed in the
Baseline scenario, 29,600 units needed in the Amenity Driven scenario, and 25,800
units needed in the Constrained City scenario (Figure 5).
Figure 5. Gallatin County Total Housing Units Forecast Summary, 2010-2045
City of Bozeman
The results for the City of Bozeman follow the same methodology previously
described, with Bozeman receiving total jobs in all three scenarios based on its
current share of total jobs. From 2024 to 2045, Bozeman is forecast to add 27,720
jobs, increasing from 51,580 jobs in 2024 to 79,300 jobs in 2045 (Figure 6).
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 11 Introduction and Summary of Findings
Figure 6. Bozeman Total Jobs Forecast Summary, 2010-2045
The total amount of employees living and working in Gallatin County is
apportioned to Bozeman based on each scenario. In the Amenity-Driven and
Constrained City scenarios, this results in a lower forecasted population growth
from 2025 to 2045 compared to the Baseline scenario. In the Amenity Driven
scenario, this is due to the increased number of second homes, whereas in the
Constrained City scenario it is due to Bozeman taking on a smaller share of the
population growth within Gallatin County (Figure 7). The result of each scenario is
as follows:
• Baseline Scenario – the population is forecast to increase by 29,506
residents from 2024 to 2045, increasing from 57,894 residents to 87,400
residents.
• Amenity Driven Scenario – the population is forecast to increase by 23,906
residents from 2024 to 2045, increasing from 57,894 residents to 81,800
residents.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 12 Introduction and Summary of Findings
• Constrained City Scenario – the population is forecast to increase by
20,406 residents from 2024 to 2045, increasing from 57,894 residents to
78,300 residents.
Figure 7. Bozeman Total Population Forecast Summary, 2010-2045
The Constrained City scenario has the lowest total population growth forecast and
the lowest housing unit demand forecast within the City of Bozeman. For the
Constrained City scenario, this total demand is 10,700 housing units (Figure 8).
The Amenity Driven scenario is forecast to have demand for 14,400 housing units
from 2024 to 2045. In the Baseline scenario, this total demand is 15,100 housing
units.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 13 Introduction and Summary of Findings
Figure 8. Bozeman Total Housing Units Forecast Summary, 2010-2045
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 14 Demographic Trends
2. Demographic Trends
This chapter provides an analysis of the recent population, household, and housing
unit trends in Gallatin County, Park County, and Broadwater County. This analysis
also includes an in-depth analysis of Gallatin County and its subareas (i.e.,
Bozeman, Belgrade, Four Corners, etc.).
Population
Both the Tri-County region (Gallatin, Broadwater, and Park counties) and portions
of Gallatin County have seen rapid growth over the last ten to fifteen years. To
better understand where growth has occurred, population growth is analyzed
below for both the region and for subareas within Gallatin County.
Regional Trends
The Tri-County region had a total population of 146,988 in 2023. Gallatin County
was by far the largest with 122,194 residents in 2023 (Table 4). Between 2010 and
2023 the region added 36,277 residents per year and grew at an average annual
rate of 2.3 percent. Most of the growth was concentrated in Gallatin County, which
captured 90.2 percent of regional population growth from 2010 to 2023.
Table 4. Tri-County Population Trends, 2010-2023
Gallatin County Subareas
Within Gallatin County, a total of 32,681 residents were added from 2010 to 2023
(Table 5). Over half of this growth (54.3 percent) was in the City of Bozeman, which
gained 17,762 residents. This results in an average annual growth rate of 3.0
percent. Two subareas, Belgrade and Four Corners, had a higher average annual
growth rate than Bozeman during this period. Their average annual growth rates
were 3.4 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.
Growth
Population 2010 2020 2023 Change Ann. # Ann. %Capture
Tri-County
Gallatin County 89,513 118,960 122,194 32,681 2,514 2.4% 90.2%
Park County 15,636 17,191 17,484 1,848 80 0.5% 5.1%
Broadwater County 5,612 6,774 7,310 1,698 74 2.2% 4.7%
Total 110,761 142,925 146,988 36,227 1,575 2.3% 100.0%
Source: US Census ACS 5 - Year Estimates and Decennial Census
2010-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 15 Demographic Trends
Table 5. Gallatin County Subareas Population Trends, 2010-2023
Comparison Cities
When compared to some other cities in the Western United States, Bozeman’s
average annual population growth rate is second to that of Meridian (a suburb of
Boise, Idaho). Bozeman’s average annual growth rate from 2010 to 2023 was 3.0
percent (Table 6). During the same period, Meridian’s was 4.0 percent. Out of the
peer communities in Montana, Bozeman gained the most residents during this
period (17,762 residents), closely followed by Billings (14,151 residents).
Table 6. Comparison Cities in Population, 2010-2023
Growth
Population 2010 2020 2023 Change Ann. # Ann. %Capture
Gallatin County
Belgrade 7,389 10,460 11,425 4,036 310 3.4% 12.3%
Bozeman 37,280 53,293 55,042 17,762 1,366 3.0% 54.3%
Four Corners CDP 3,146 5,901 5,562 2,416 186 4.5% 7.4%
Manhattan 1,520 2,086 2,149 629 48 2.7% 1.9%
Three Forks 1,869 1,989 2,034 165 13 0.7% 0.5%
Unincorporated 38,309 45,231 45,982 7,673 590 1.4% 23.5%
Total 89,513 118,960 122,194 32,681 2,514 2.4% 100.0%
Source: US Census ACS 5 - Year Estimates and Decennial Census
2010-2023
Description 2010 2015 2020 2023 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Total Population
Bozeman, MT 37,280 40,319 53,293 55,042 17,762 1,366 3.0%
Missoula, MT 66,788 69,190 73,489 75,600 8,812 678 1.0%
Kalispell, MT 19,927 21,142 24,558 26,830 6,903 531 2.3%
Billings, MT 104,170 108,134 117,116 118,321 14,151 1,089 1.0%
Boise, ID 205,671 214,196 235,684 235,701 30,030 2,310 1.1%
Meridian, ID 75,092 84,018 117,635 124,865 49,773 3,829 4.0%
Fort Collins, CO 143,986 153,292 169,810 169,705 25,719 1,978 1.3%
Boulder, CO 97,385 103,919 108,250 106,274 8,889 684 0.7%
Bend, OR 76,639 81,780 99,178 101,472 24,833 1,910 2.2%
Source: U.S. Census Decennial Census; U.S. Census ACS 5-year estimates; Economic & Planning Systems
2010-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 16 Demographic Trends
Households
Household trends both within the region and within Gallatin County are similar to
the population trends from 2010 to 2023. While minimal, some of the differences
are related to differing household sizes between geographies.
Regional Trends
The Tri-County Region gained a total of 14,969 households from 2010 to 2023
(Table 7). One notable difference from the population trends is that Park County
captured 6.3 percent of the total household growth from 2010 to 2023, compared
to 5.1 percent of the total population growth during the same period (Table 4). This
suggests Park County’s new households are smaller in household size.
Table 7. Tri-County Household Trends, 2010-2023
Gallatin County Subareas
Gallatin County gained a total of 13,481 households from 2010 to 2023 (Table 8).
54.6 percent of the households gained during this period were in Bozeman (7,356
households). Compared to population trends, Four Corners CDP had a larger share
of population growth (7.4 percent) compared to household growth (6.0 percent)
from 2010 to 2023, suggesting that the new households were larger in household
size.
Growth
Households 2010 2020 2023 Change Ann. # Ann. %Capture
Tri-County
Gallatin County 36,550 47,117 50,031 13,481 1,037 2.4% 90.1%
Park County 7,310 7,997 8,257 947 73 0.9% 6.3%
Broadwater County 2,347 2,795 2,888 541 42 1.6% 3.6%
Total 46,207 57,909 61,176 14,969 1,151 2.2% 100.0%
Source: US Census ACS 5 - Year Estimates and Decennial Census
2010-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 17 Demographic Trends
Table 8. Gallatin County Subareas Household Trends, 2010-2023
Comparison Cities
Compared to some peer cities in the Western United States, Bozeman had the
second highest average annual household growth rate from 2010 to 2023, which
was 3.0 percent (Table 9). The peer city with the highest average annual growth
rate during this period was Meridian, with a rate of 4.6 percent. Some peer
communities that were close in average annual growth rate include Bend (2.4
percent rate) and Kalispell (2.0 percent rate).
Table 9. Comparison Cities in Households, 2010-2023
Growth
Households 2010 2020 2023 Change Ann. # Ann. %Capture
Gallatin County
Belgrade 2,965 4,102 4,727 1,762 136 3.7% 13.1%
Bozeman 15,775 21,735 23,131 7,356 566 3.0% 54.6%
Four Corners CDP 1,228 2,196 2,038 810 62 4.0% 6.0%
Manhattan 622 803 894 272 21 2.8% 2.0%
Three Forks 758 822 879 121 9 1.1% 0.9%
Unincorporated 15,202 17,459 18,362 3,160 243 1.5% 23.4%
Total 36,550 47,117 50,031 13,481 1,037 2.4% 100.0%
Source: US Census ACS 5 - Year Estimates and Decennial Census
2010-2023
Description 2010 2015 2020 2023 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Total Households
Bozeman, MT 15,775 16,573 21,735 23,131 7,356 566 3.0%
Missoula, MT 29,081 29,860 32,816 33,958 4,877 375 1.2%
Kalispell, MT 8,638 8,608 10,297 11,108 2,470 190 2.0%
Billings, MT 43,945 44,092 49,441 50,340 6,395 492 1.1%
Boise, ID 85,704 86,916 97,456 99,616 13,912 1,070 1.2%
Meridian, ID 25,302 29,499 41,230 45,486 20,184 1,553 4.6%
Fort Collins, CO 57,829 58,918 67,731 70,782 12,953 996 1.6%
Boulder, CO 41,302 42,165 43,565 43,825 2,523 194 0.5%
Bend, OR 31,790 33,396 40,969 43,278 11,488 884 2.4%
Source: U.S. Census Decennial Census; U.S. Census ACS 5-year estimates; Economic & Planning Systems
2010-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 18 Demographic Trends
Housing Units
While housing unit trends mostly mirror that of household and population, it is
important to understand a community’s current housing stock. To accommodate
the robust growth that the region has seen, housing units have also spiked in recent
years.
Regional Trends
Within the Tri-County Region, Gallatin County has accounted for 91.7 percent of
the total housing unit growth from 2010 to 2023 (Table 10)—a total of 15,141
housing units. Broadwater County increased its housing unit supply by nearly one-
third, increasing its total units from 2,175 in 2010 to 3,164 in 2023. Meanwhile,
Park County had minimal growth, only gaining a total of 382 housing units from
2010 to 2023.
Table 10. Tri-County Housing Unit Trends, 2010-2023
Gallatin County Subareas
Consistent with population and household trends, Bozeman captured 53.4 percent
of the total housing unit growth from 2010 to 2023 (Table 11). This is followed by
Unincorporated Gallatin County, which gained a total of 3,894 housing units,
accounting for 25.7 percent of the total growth. The area with the highest average
annual growth rate during this period was Four Corners CDP, which had an
average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent.
Growth
Housing Units 2010 2020 2023 Change Ann. # Ann. %Capture
Tri-County
Gallatin County 40,448 51,011 55,589 15,141 1,165 2.5% 91.7%
Park County 9,215 9,657 9,597 382 29 0.3% 2.3%
Broadwater County 2,175 2,740 3,164 989 76 2.9% 6.0%
Total 51,838 63,408 68,350 16,512 1,270 2.1% 100.0%
Source: US Census ACS 5 - Year Estimates and Decennial Census
2010-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 19 Demographic Trends
Table 11. Gallatin County Subareas Housing Unit Trends, 2010-2023
Comparison Cities
From 2010 to 2023, Bozeman gained 7,382 housing units, which is higher than all
peer Montana communities (Table 12). This results in an average annual growth
rate of 2.7 percent, which is second to Meridian (4.4 percent) for being the highest
rate during this period. The City with the smallest average annual growth rate in
housing units from 2010 to 2023 was Boulder, which had a rate of 0.5 percent and
only gained a total of 3,196 housing units.
Table 12. Comparison Cities in Housing Units, 2010-2023
Growth
Housing Units 2010 2020 2023 Change Ann. # Ann. %Capture
Gallatin County
Belgrade 3,154 3,640 4,858 1,704 131 3.4% 11.3%
Bozeman 16,761 22,057 24,846 8,085 622 3.1% 53.4%
Four Corners CDP 1,211 1,957 2,197 986 76 4.7% 6.5%
Manhattan 574 806 909 335 26 3.6% 2.2%
Three Forks 758 898 895 137 11 1.3% 0.9%
Unincorporated 17,990 21,653 21,884 3,894 300 1.5% 25.7%
Total 40,448 51,011 55,589 15,141 1,165 2.5% 100.0%
Source: US Census ACS 5 - Year Estimates and Decennial Census
2010-2023
Description 2010 2015 2020 2023 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Total Housing Units
Bozeman, MT 17,464 18,293 23,535 24,846 7,382 568 2.7%
Missoula, MT 30,682 31,668 34,747 36,310 5,628 433 1.3%
Kalispell, MT 9,379 9,406 10,894 11,650 2,271 175 1.7%
Billings, MT 46,317 47,044 52,643 53,537 7,220 555 1.1%
Boise, ID 92,700 92,167 102,295 104,833 12,133 933 1.0%
Meridian, ID 26,674 30,222 43,627 46,672 19,998 1,538 4.4%
Fort Collins, CO 60,503 61,139 71,625 73,332 12,829 987 1.5%
Boulder, CO 43,479 44,578 46,289 46,675 3,196 246 0.5%
Bend, OR 36,110 36,579 44,449 46,712 10,602 816 2.0%
Source: U.S. Census Decennial Census; U.S. Census ACS 5-year estimates; Economic & Planning Systems
Z \Sh d\P j t \DEN\253073 B MT P l ti d H i F t\D t \[253073 C C it 7 28 25 l ]T HU
2010-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 20 Demographic Trends
Vacant and Part-Time Resident Housing Units
Regional Trends
Total vacant units in the Tri-County Region have stayed around the same amount
since 2010, suggesting that new inventory, when built, is filled. One noteworthy
trend is that Gallatin County had an increase of 863 vacant units from 2010 to
2023, with the majority (722 units) being attributed to part-time residents (Table
13). Meanwhile, Park County saw a reduction of 892 vacant units during the same
period, suggesting there may be increasing outward pressure from Gallatin County
primary residents on Park County.
Table 13. Tri-County Total Vacant Units, 2010-2023
While the total number of vacant units in Gallatin County has increased, their total
share of housing units has decreased by 1.6 percentage points, from 11.6 percent
in 2010 to 10.0 percent in 2023 (Figure 9). Part-time vacant units accounted for
5.2 percentage points of this rate in 2023, compared to 5.4 percentage points in
2010. Park County and Broadwater County have seen more significant decreases
in their total vacancy rate from 2010 to 2023, decreasing from 24.2 percent to
14.0 percent and 13.7 percent to 8.7 percent, respectively. Part-time vacancies
make up a larger share of vacancies in both Park and Broadwater Counties,
suggesting a larger presence of second homes.
Growth
Vacant Units 2010 2020 2023 Change Ann. # Ann. %Capture
Tri-County
Gallatin County 4,695 5,724 5,558 863 66 1.3% 77.5%
Park County 2,232 1,696 1,340 -892 -69 -3.8% 18.7%
Broadwater County 297 304 276 -21 -2 -0.6%3.8%
Total 7,224 7,724 7,174 -50 -4 -0.1% 100.0%
Source: US Census ACS 5 - Year Estimates and Decennial Census
2010-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 21 Demographic Trends
Figure 9. Tri-County Vacant Unit Types, 2010 to 2023
Gallatin County Subareas
Within Gallatin County, the majority of vacant units gained (609 total units) from
2010 to 2023 have been in unincorporated Gallatin County (Table 14). This
aacounts for 70.6 percent of the total vacant units gained during this period. This is
followed by Bozeman, which gained 377 vacant units from 2010 to 2023. With the
exception of Four Corners, the surrounding geograhies saw a decrease in vacant
units, suggesting a tightening of the housing market surrounding Bozeman.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 22 Demographic Trends
Table 14. Gallatin County Subareas Vacant Unit Trends, 2010-2023
Within Gallatin County, both Bozeman and Four Corners have seen part-time
vacancies account for a larger portion of vacant units from 2010 to 2023. In 2010
8.0 percent of housing units were vacant. Of total housing units, 0.8 percent were
part-time vacant (Figure 10). In 2023, part-time vacancies increased to 1.9 percent
of total housing stock. In Four Corners, this change is more pronounced. Part-time
vacancies increased by 3.0 percentage points from 0.9 percent in 2010 to 3.9
percent in 2023.
Meanwhile, both Belgrade and all other areas within Gallatin County have seen
their share of part-time vacancies decrease. In 2023, Belgrade had a part-time
vacancy rate of 0 percent. The part-time vacancy rate in all other communities
within Gallatin County decreased by 3.2 percentage points, from 13.4 percent in
2010 to 10.2 percent in 2023.
Growth
Vacant Units 2010 2020 2023 Change Ann. # Ann. %Capture
Gallatin County
Belgrade 226 89 131 -95 -7 -4.1% -11.0%
Big Sky CDP 1,661 2,450 2,025 364 28 1.5% 42.2%
Bozeman 1,338 1,600 1,715 377 29 1.9% 43.7%
Four Corners CDP 105 117 159 54 4 3.2% 6.3%
Manhattan 55 25 15 -40 -3 -9.5% -4.6%
Three Forks 58 64 16 -42 -3 -9.4% -4.9%
Unincorporated 1,252 1,379 1,497 245 19 1.4%28.4%
Total 4,695 5,724 5,558 863 66 1.3% 100.0%
Source: US Census ACS 5 - Year Estimates and Decennial Census
2010-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 23 Demographic Trends
Figure 10. Gallatin County Subareas Vacant by Type, 2010 to 2023
Vacancy Rate Trends
Regional Trends
The overall vacancy rates in the Tri-County region have declined substantially from
2010 to 2023, suggesting a tightening of the housing market. Park County had the
largest decrease, dropping from a vacancy rate of 24.2 percent in 2010 to 14.0
percent in 2023 (Figure 11). Broadwater County’s vacancy rate dropped from 13.7
percent to 8.7 percent over the same period. In Gallatin County, the vacancy rate
dropped by 1.6 percentage points from 11.6 percent in 2010 to 10.0 percent in
2023.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 24 Demographic Trends
Figure 11. Tri-County Vacancy Rates, 2010-2023
Gallatin County Subareas
Within Gallatin County, Bozeman, Belgrade, and Four Corners CDP have all seen a
decrease in their vacancy rates from 2010 to 2023. Bozeman’s overall vacancy rate
decreased by 1.1 percentage points from 2010 to 2023, decreasing from 8.0
percent in 2010 to 6.9 percent in 2023 (Figure 12). Currently, Belgrade has an
extremely low vacancy rate of 2.7 percent—it has remained at or below 5 percent
since 2019. Four Corners CDP has seen its rate drop by 1.5 percentage points,
decreasing from 8.7 percent in 2010 to 7.2 percent in 2023. The remainder of
Gallatin County has not seen much change in vacancy.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 25 Demographic Trends
Figure 12. Gallatin County Subareas Vacancy Rates, 2010-2023
Comparison Cities
When looking at peer cities across the Western United States, 2023 vacancy rates
range from 2.5 percent (Meridian) to 7.4 percent (Bend) (Figure 13). Bozeman falls
on the higher end of this range, with a vacancy rate of 6.9 percent in 2023. While
on the higher end currently, Bozeman’s vacancy rate has dropped 2.8 percentage
points since 2010, when it had a vacancy rate of 9.7 percent. In addition, the
average vacancy rate for all peer cities in 2023 was 5.4 percent, down from 7.0
percent in 2010.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 26 Demographic Trends
Figure 13. Comparison Cities Vacancy Rates, 2010-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 27 Demographic Trends
Household Size Factors
Regional Trends
Within the Tri-County area, household sizes have remained relatively similar from
2000 to 2023. Park County had the largest drop in household size from 2000 to
2023, decreasing from 2.27 persons per household to 2.08 persons per household
(Figure 14). Gallatin County’s household size also decreased from 2000 to 2023,
going from 2.46 persons per household to 2.35 persons per household. Meanwhile,
Broadwater County saw a slight increase in household size from 2000 to 2023,
going from 2.48 persons per household to 2.51 persons per household.
Figure 14. Tri-County Household Size Trends, 2000-2023
Gallatin County Subareas
Within Gallatin County, the average household size has decreased from 2.47
persons per household in 2000 to 2.40 persons per household in 2023 (Figure 15).
During this period, Belgrade had the largest decrease, decreasing from 2.67
persons per household to 2.41 persons per household. The only community to see
an increase in household size during this period was Four Corners CDP, which
increased its average household size from 2.29 persons per household in 2000 to
2.73 persons per household in 2023.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 28 Demographic Trends
Figure 15. Gallatin County Subareas Household Size Trends, 2000-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 29 Demographic Trends
Population to Housing Unit Ratio
Population to Housing Ratio is a factor that is used in the forecasts to help
determine housing unit demand. It is calculated by dividing the total population by
total housing units.
Regional Trends
Within the Tri-County region, the average population to housing unit ratio in 2023
was 2.15 persons per housing unit (Table 15). The lowest was Park County, with
1.82 persons per housing unit, followed by Gallatin County (2.20 persons per
housing unit) and Broadwater County (2.31 persons per housing unit).
Table 15. Tri-County Population to Housing Unit Ratio, 2010-2023
Gallatin County Subareas
Within Gallatin County, Manhattan and Three Forks have both seen large
decreases in their population to housing unit ratio from 2010 to 2023. Manhattan’s
ratio decreased from 2.65 persons per housing unit to 2.36 persons per housing
unit and Three Forks’ ratio decreased from 2.47 persons per housing unit to 2.27
persons per housing unit (Table 16).
Table 16. Gallatin County Subareas Population to Housing Unit Ratio, 2010-2023
Pop. to Housing Units 2010 2020 2023
Tri-County
Gallatin County 2.21 2.33 2.20
Park County 1.70 1.78 1.82
Broadwater County 2.58 2.47 2.31
Total 2.14 2.25 2.15
Source: US Census ACS 5 - Year Estimates and Decennial Census
Pop. to Housing Units 2010 2020 2023
Gallatin County
Belgrade 2.34 2.87 2.35
Bozeman 2.22 2.42 2.22
Four Corners CDP 2.60 3.02 2.53
Manhattan 2.65 2.59 2.36
Three Forks 2.47 2.21 2.27
Unincorporated 2.13 2.09 2.10
Total 2.21 2.33 2.20
Source: US Census ACS 5 - Year Estimates and Decennial Census
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 30 Employment Trends
3. Employment Trends
This chapter provides an analysis of the employment trends in Gallatin County,
Park County, and Broadwater County. In addition to the Tri-County region this
chapter covers trends of Gallatin County and its subareas.
Employment
The Tri-County region and the Gallatin County Subareas have experienced rapid
employment growth since 2010. Much of the growth has been concentrated in
Gallatin County and Bozeman.
Regional Trends
The Tri-County region had 81,877 covered employees in 2024 (a “covered
employee” is an employee whose job is subject to state and federal unemployment
insurance laws and thus “covered” by the QCEW survey). In 2024, Gallatin County
accounted for 89.0 percent of the region’s jobs. Since 2010, the region added
32,900 jobs growing at an annual rate of 3.7 percent. 93.3 percent of total
employment growth came from Gallatin County during this period (Table 17).
Employment growth outpaced population growth over the past fifteen years. The
compound annual growth rate for employment, 3.7 percent, was 1.5 percentage
points higher than population and household growth. The effect of this is a tighter
labor market with low unemployment and high wage growth.
Table 17. Tri-County Total Covered Employment Trends, 2010-2024
Gallatin County Subareas
Gallatin County added 30,696 employees between 2010 and 2024 (Table 18).
Bozeman accounted for 53.6 percent of the growth, adding 16,446 jobs. Four
Corners CDP and Manhattan grew the fastest, with compound annual growth rates
of 5.9 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively.
Growth
Covered Employment 2010 2020 2024 Change Ann. # Ann. %Capture
Tri-County
Gallatin County 42,483 59,024 73,179 30,696 2,193 4.0% 93.3%
Park County 5,172 5,798 7,208 2,036 145 2.4% 6.2%
Broadwater County 1,322 1,336 1,490 168 12 0.9% 0.5%
Total 48,977 66,158 81,877 32,900 2,350 3.7% 100.0%
Source: Jobs EQ, BLS QCEW
2010-2024
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 31 Employment Trends
Table 18. Gallatin County Subareas Total Covered Employment Trends, 2010-2024
Comparison Cities
When compared to other cities in the Western United States, Bozeman had strong
employment growth from 2010 to 2023. Bozeman added a total of 16,446
employees, which equates to an average annual growth rate of 3.5 percent (Table
19). This employment data includes those that are self-employed (i.e., covered
employees and self-employed workers). This rate is second to that of Meridian,
which had an average annual growth rate of 5.2 percent. Other communities that
had similar growth in employment include Bend, with an average annual growth
rate of 3.0 percent, and Fort Collins, with an average annual growth rate of 2.0
percent.
Table 19. Comparison Cites in Total Employment, 2010-2024
Growth
Covered Employment 2010 2020 2024 Change Ann. # Ann. %Capture
Gallatin County
Belgrade 2,712 3,477 4,455 1,743 125 3.6% 5.7%
Bozeman 26,538 35,746 42,983 16,446 1,175 3.5% 53.6%
Four Corners CDP 2,023 3,704 4,449 2,426 173 5.8% 7.9%
Manhattan 339 622 790 451 32 6.2% 1.5%
Three Forks 402 471 620 218 16 3.1% 0.7%
Unincorporated 10,470 15,004 19,882 9,412 672 4.7% 30.7%
Total 42,483 59,024 73,179 30,696 2,193 4.0% 100.0%
Source: Jobs EQ, BLS QCEW
2010-2024
Description 2010 2015 2020 2024 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Total Employees
Bozeman, MT 28,839 34,105 38,162 45,538 16,699 1,193 3.3%
Missoula, MT 48,592 51,843 52,663 57,900 9,308 665 1.3%
Kalispell, MT 20,315 19,702 20,961 23,594 3,279 234 1.1%
Billings, MT 67,724 69,472 68,719 75,518 7,794 557 0.8%
Boise, ID 152,414 160,187 176,425 195,194 42,780 3,056 1.8%
Meridian, ID 31,291 40,379 52,998 63,732 32,441 2,317 5.2%
Fort Collins, CO 78,189 88,937 94,107 102,996 24,807 1,772 2.0%
Boulder, CO 88,070 94,053 98,055 101,355 13,285 949 1.0%
Bend, OR 43,490 52,627 58,344 65,607 22,117 1,580 3.0%
Source: JobsEQ; Economic & Planning Systems
2010-2024
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 32 Employment Trends
Industry Trends
In 2024, the Accommodation and Food Services and Retail Trade industries were
the two largest employers in the County (Table 22). The Construction and
Administrative Servicies industries accounted for 15 percent of County jobs.
Table 20. Gallatin County Employment by NAICS, 2010-2024
Employment 2010 2020 2024 Change Ann. # Ann. %
Gallatin County
Unclassified 1 14 169 167 12 40.7%
Admin. and Waste Services 1,209 2,268 2,916 1,707 122 6.5%
Construction 3,402 6,485 8,080 4,678 334 6.4%
Management 141 233 324 183 13 6.1%
Accomm./Food Services 5,322 6,912 11,474 6,152 439 5.6%
Ag./Forestry/Fishing 483 699 929 446 32 4.8%
Other (ex. Public Admin.)1,471 2,322 2,821 1,350 96 4.8%
Health Care 4,098 6,076 7,681 3,583 256 4.6%
Arts/Rec.1,250 1,468 2,321 1,071 76 4.5%
Prof./Tech Services 3,098 4,831 5,516 2,419 173 4.2%
Real Estate 856 1,196 1,508 652 47 4.1%
Wholesale Trade 1,348 1,822 2,334 986 70 4.0%
Manufacturing 2,243 3,599 3,579 1,336 95 3.4%
Finance 1,312 1,639 1,943 631 45 2.8%
Retail Trade 6,547 8,189 9,402 2,854 204 2.6%
Utilities 117 149 161 43 3 2.3%
Transport./Warehousing 1,146 1,532 1,561 415 30 2.2%
Information 559 698 703 144 10 1.7%
Education 5,942 6,836 7,417 1,475 105 1.6%
Public Admin.1,736 1,867 2,127 392 28 1.5%
Mining 202 188 213 11 1 0.4%
Total 42,483 59,024 73,179 30,696 2,193 4.0%
Source: Jobs EQ; Economic & Planning Systems
2010-2024
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 33 Employment Trends
Between 2010 and 2024, Gallatin County added 30,696 jobs corresponding to an
annual growth rate of 4.0 percent. The Construction and Administration Support
Services industries grew the fastest, at an annual rate of 6.5 percent and 6.4
percent respectively (excluding unclassified). Over the same period, the
Accomodation and Food Services and Construction industries added the most jobs,
growing by 6,152 and 4,678 jobs, respectively (Figure 16). Together, these two
industries accounted for 35.3 percent of job growth. Industries that had the least
growth from 2010 to 2024 include Mining (11 new employees), Utilites (43 new
employees), and Information (144 new employees).
Figure 16. Gallatin County Change in Employment by NAICS, 2010-2024
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 34 Employment Trends
The average annual wage in Gallatin County was $63,922 in 2024, up from
$33,762 in 2010 (Table 21). Between 2010 and 2024, average wages grew at an
average annual rate of 4.7 percent. The highest earning industries were
Professional Services, Finance, Information, and Utilities. The Accommodation and
Food Services and Information industries grew the fastest (excluding Unclassified),
with average annual wages increasing by an average annual rate of 7.3 percent and
6.8 percent, respectively.
Table 21. Gallatin County Wages by NAICS, 2010-2024
Wages 2010 2020 2024 Change Ann. # Ann. %
Gallatin County
Unclassified $20,213 $58,230 $85,354 $65,141 $4,653 10.8%
Accomm./Food Services $15,184 $24,985 $40,800 $25,616 $1,830 7.3%
Information $39,954 $79,388 $100,649 $60,694 $4,335 6.8%
Admin. and Waste Services $25,954 $38,015 $57,786 $31,832 $2,274 5.9%
Real Estate $31,094 $55,601 $67,768 $36,674 $2,620 5.7%
Prof./Tech Services $54,283 $83,691 $113,449 $59,166 $4,226 5.4%
Wholesale Trade $42,934 $67,790 $88,323 $45,389 $3,242 5.3%
Retail Trade $22,748 $37,609 $46,781 $24,033 $1,717 5.3%
Construction $37,175 $58,096 $76,017 $38,842 $2,774 5.2%
Other (ex. Public Admin.)$25,453 $38,270 $51,208 $25,756 $1,840 5.1%
Finance $56,295 $90,255 $108,156 $51,861 $3,704 4.8%
Ag./Forestry/Fishing $24,638 $39,335 $46,806 $22,168 $1,583 4.7%
Transport./Warehousing $31,884 $45,692 $57,948 $26,064 $1,862 4.4%
Manufacturing $37,321 $52,421 $67,137 $29,817 $2,130 4.3%
Public Admin.$45,388 $61,186 $80,273 $34,886 $2,492 4.2%
Health Care $38,274 $55,587 $63,242 $24,968 $1,783 3.7%
Management $50,089 $74,969 $81,559 $31,470 $2,248 3.5%
Mining $60,046 $85,960 $96,727 $36,681 $2,620 3.5%
Education $35,514 $48,507 $56,344 $20,831 $1,488 3.4%
Arts/Rec.$23,727 $30,778 $34,723 $10,997 $785 2.8%
Utilities $70,117 $91,516 $97,677 $27,560 $1,969 2.4%
Total $33,762 $50,849 $63,922 $30,160 $2,154 4.7%
Source: Jobs EQ; Economic & Planning Systems
2010-2024
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 35 Employment Trends
In 2024, Tourism related industries comprise the top industries in Bozeman (Table
22). The Accommodation and Food Services industry had 7,191 employees in 2024,
followed by Health Care (6,388 employees), and Retail Trade (6,148 employees).
Education is a significant employer in Bozeman with a total of 5,570 employees in
2024, a large share of which is due to Montana State University. In total, Bozeman
had 42,893 employees in 2024.
Table 22. Bozeman Employment by NAICS, 2010-2024
Employment 2010 2020 2024 Change Ann. # Ann. %
Bozeman
Unclassified 1 6 77 76 5 39.2%
Accomm./Food Services 3,035 4,321 7,191 4,156 297 6.4%
Management 132 222 294 162 12 5.9%
Construction 1,272 2,235 2,817 1,545 110 5.8%
Admin. and Waste Services 570 1,009 1,190 620 44 5.4%
Prof./Tech Services 1,803 2,968 3,397 1,594 114 4.6%
Other (ex. Public Admin.)967 1,458 1,793 826 59 4.5%
Health Care 3,489 5,176 6,388 2,900 207 4.4%
Arts/Rec.502 841 877 376 27 4.1%
Mining 16 6 27 12 1 4.1%
Wholesale Trade 618 795 944 326 23 3.1%
Manufacturing 961 1,543 1,434 473 34 2.9%
Ag./Forestry/Fishing 67 47 100 33 2 2.9%
Finance 969 1,182 1,416 446 32 2.7%
Real Estate 435 552 595 160 11 2.3%
Utilities 77 98 101 24 2 2.0%
Retail Trade 4,826 5,585 6,148 1,322 94 1.7%
Education 4,486 5,121 5,570 1,084 77 1.6%
Public Admin.1,389 1,403 1,638 249 18 1.2%
Transport./Warehousing 514 631 570 56 4 0.7%
Information 411 545 417 6 0 0.1%
Total 26,538 35,746 42,983 16,446 1,175 3.5%
Source: Jobs EQ; Economic & Planning Systems
2010-2024
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 36 Employment Trends
Between 2010 and 2024 Bozeman added 16,446 jobs, growing at an average
annual rate of 3.5 percent. One of the fastest growing industries in Bozeman was
Professional and Technical Services, which added 1,594 jobs and grew at an
average annual rate of 4.6 percent. By annual percentage growth, it was the fifth
fastest growing industry (excluding unclassified). Bozeman’s expanding
professional services sector reflects the transition from a retail and
accommodations-based economy to a service-oriented one. Over the same period,
the Accommodation and Food Services and Health Care industries added the most
jobs, growing by 4,156 and 2,900 jobs, respectively (Figure 17). Together, these
two industries accounted for 42.9 percent of job growth.
Figure 17. Bozeman Change in Employment by NAICS, 2010-2024
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 37 Employment Trends
The average annual wage in Bozeman was $64,102 in 2024, up from $34,200 in
2010, representing a 4.6 percent average annual increase (Table 23). The
Professional Services, Finance, Utilities, and Information industries paid the
highest wages in 2024, with each averaging over $100,000. The Accommodation
and Food Services and Information sectors experienced the highest average annual
wage growth, increasing by 7.3 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively.
Table 23. Bozeman Wages by NAICS, 2010-2024
Wages 2010 2020 2024 Change Ann. # Ann. %
Bozeman
Unclassified $20,237 $58,255 $85,354 $65,117 $4,651 10.8%
Accomm./Food Services $15,104 $24,880 $40,695 $25,591 $1,828 7.3%
Information $40,082 $79,668 $100,825 $60,743 $4,339 6.8%
Real Estate $31,264 $55,845 $69,650 $38,386 $2,742 5.9%
Admin. and Waste Services $25,992 $37,900 $57,683 $31,691 $2,264 5.9%
Prof./Tech Services $54,369 $83,848 $113,790 $59,421 $4,244 5.4%
Retail Trade $22,730 $37,617 $46,769 $24,038 $1,717 5.3%
Wholesale Trade $42,963 $67,781 $88,210 $45,247 $3,232 5.3%
Construction $37,287 $58,022 $75,937 $38,650 $2,761 5.2%
Other (ex. Public Admin.)$25,448 $38,453 $51,439 $25,991 $1,857 5.2%
Finance $56,269 $90,247 $108,180 $51,911 $3,708 4.8%
Ag./Forestry/Fishing $24,249 $37,159 $45,837 $21,588 $1,542 4.7%
Transport./Warehousing $30,194 $42,937 $54,453 $24,259 $1,733 4.3%
Manufacturing $37,305 $52,463 $66,981 $29,677 $2,120 4.3%
Public Admin.$44,321 $60,099 $78,665 $34,344 $2,453 4.2%
Health Care $38,389 $55,723 $63,357 $24,969 $1,783 3.6%
Mining $60,212 $85,233 $98,378 $38,166 $2,726 3.6%
Management $50,089 $74,969 $81,555 $31,466 $2,248 3.5%
Education $36,330 $49,872 $57,383 $21,052 $1,504 3.3%
Arts/Rec.$23,942 $30,559 $34,768 $10,825 $773 2.7%
Utilities $76,453 $99,466 $103,853 $27,400 $1,957 2.2%
Total $34,200 $51,113 $64,102 $29,902 $2,136 4.6%
Source: Jobs EQ; Economic & Planning Systems
2010-2024
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 38 Employment Trends
The top five industries by employment in Gallatin County and Bozeman’s total
share of such industries is shown in Figure 18. The Accommodations and Food
services and Retail Trade industries are relatively evenly split between the City
and County. The Construction industry is concentrated in the County; of the 8,080
employees in Construction, 65.1 percent (5,264) are in the County. Jobs in the
Health Care and Education industries are clustered in the City. For those
industries, 83.2 percent and 75.1 percent of County-wide jobs are located in
Bozeman.
Figure 18. Top 5 Employment Industries in Gallatin County, 2024
Impact of AI
The impact of artificial intelligence on Bozeman’s economy is hard to quantify,
however, some industries may be more exposed to the effects of AI than others.
The Information industry, which includes subsectors such as Software Publishers
and Data Processing Services, may be at risk due to advances in AI. In addition, the
Professional Services industry, one of Bozeman’s fastest growing sectors, may also
be disproportionately exposed. The Professional Services industry includes
subsectors such as Legal Services, Accounting Services, and Computer Services.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 39 Employment Trends
Industry Trends by Location
In 2010, 62.5 percent of Gallatin County employees worked within Bozeman city
limits (Table 24). In 2024, 58.7 percent worked within city limits, a 3.7 percentage
point decrease. The annual job growth rate for Gallatin County has outpaced
growth in Bozeman by 0.5 percentage points since 2010, thus a decreasing share of
county jobs are within the city. Of the 21 2-digit NAICS industries, 18 lost a portion
of total employment share to the County. The Information and Real Estate
industries have seen the largest share of employment lost to the County, with a
decrease of14.1 percentage points and 11.4 percentage points in the City,
respectively. Only the Accommodation and Food Services, Mining, and
Professional Services industries became more concentrated in Bozeman from
2010 to 2024.
Table 24. Percent of Gallatin County Employees by NAICS in Bozeman, 2010-2024
Employment 2010 2020 2024 Change
% of Employees in Bozeman
Accomm./Food Services 57.0% 62.5% 62.7% 5.6%
Mining 7.8% 3.4% 12.8% 5.1%
Prof./Tech Services 58.2% 61.4% 61.6% 3.4%
Education 75.5% 74.9% 75.1% -0.4%
Finance 73.9% 72.1% 72.8% -1.0%
Health Care 85.1% 85.2% 83.2% -2.0%
Other (ex. Public Admin.)65.7% 62.8% 63.5% -2.2%
Arts/Rec.40.1% 57.3% 37.8% -2.3%
Utilities 65.3% 65.6% 62.8% -2.5%
Construction 37.4% 34.5% 34.9% -2.5%
Management 93.5% 95.3% 90.9% -2.6%
Manufacturing 42.8% 42.9% 40.1% -2.8%
Public Admin.80.0% 75.2% 77.0% -3.0%
Ag./Forestry/Fishing 13.9% 6.7% 10.7% -3.2%
Wholesale Trade 45.8% 43.7% 40.4% -5.4%
Admin. and Waste Services 47.2% 44.5% 40.8% -6.4%
Unclassified 53.3% 46.2% 45.8% -7.5%
Transport./Warehousing 44.8% 41.2% 36.5% -8.3%
Retail Trade 73.7% 68.2% 65.4% -8.3%
Real Estate 50.8% 46.2% 39.5% -11.4%
Information 73.5% 78.0% 59.4% -14.1%
Total 62.5% 60.6% 58.7%-3.7%
Source: Jobs EQ; Economic & Planning Systems
2010-2024Bozeman
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 40 Market Trends
4. Market Trends
This chapter describes the recent market trends for Multi-Household and office
product types in Gallatin County. This includes an analysis of inventory, rental
rates, and vacancy.
Multi-Household Market Trends
Gallatin County had 11,805 and Bozeman had 9,796 Multi-Household housing
units as of Q2 2025 (Table 25). Since 2010, the County added 6,627 Multi-
Household units corresponding to a 5.6 percent annual average growth rate.
Meanwhile, the City added 5,900 Multi-Household units, which equates to a 6.3
percent annual average growth rate. As of Q2 2025, 83.0 percent of units are in
Bozeman, 7.8 percentage points higher than 2010.
Table 25. Multi-Household Inventory (Units), 2010-2025 Q2
2010 2015 2020 2025
Description 2010 2015 2020 2025 Q2 Change Ann. # Ann. %
Inventory (Units)
Bozeman 3,896 4,386 5,833 9,796 5,900 393 6.3%
Gallatin County 5,178 5,681 7,168 11,805 6,627 442 5.6%
Bozeman % of G.C.75.2% 77.2% 81.4% 83.0%
Source: CoStar; Economic & Planning Systems
2010-2025 Q2
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 41 Market Trends
In Bozeman, the average Multi-Household effective rent is $2,150 per month as of
Q2 2025. Effective rent is representative of the average rent paid over the term by
a tenant adjusted downward for concessions paid for by the landlord (e.g., free
month rent, moving expenses, etc.). Average effective rent per unit peaked in 2022
and has since declined (Figure 19).
In recent years, the gap between average effective rent per unit and average asking
rent per unit has widened. In Q2 2025, the gap between average effective rent per
unit and average asking rent per unit was $44. In 2022, when rental rates peaked,
the gap was $17. Overall, decreasing rental rates could be tied to several market
factors including deliveries, growth trends, and regional market conditions.
Figure 19. Bozeman Multi-Household Average Rent per Unit, 2010-2025 Q2
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 42 Market Trends
Bozeman added 1,324 Multi-Household units in 2024, the last full year with data
(Figure 20). That marked a third straight year of increasing unit deliveries,
beginning in 2022. Vacancy rates trend positively with unit deliveries as units are
often vacant for some time after delivery. As a result, the Multi-Household vacancy
rate has increased year-over-year with delivered units. Based on CoStar data, the
vacancy rate was 20.0 percent as of Q2 2025.
Figure 20. Gallatin County Multi-Household Vacancy Rate and Deliveries (Units), 2010-2025 Q2
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 43 Market Trends
Office Trends
Bozeman had 3.9 million square feet of office space compared to 4.3 million square
feet in Gallatin County as of Q2 2025 (Table 26). Since 2010, Bozeman has added
1.2 million compared to 1.3 million square feet in the County. Bozeman and
Gallatin County have increased their inventory at an annual average rate of 2.4
percent during this period.
Table 26. Office Inventory (Sq. Ft.), 2010-2025 Q2
In 2025 Q2, gross rent was $35.18 per square foot in the City and $34.43 per
square foot in Gallatin County (Figure 21). Rental rates have been growing
consistently since 2010, increasing by approximately $23 per square foot, or
approximately a 191.7 percent increase between 2010 and 2024.
Figure 21. Office Gross Rent per Sq. Ft., 2010-2025 Q2
In Q2 2025, Bozeman’s office vacancy rate was 4.8 percent and the County’s was
6.6 percent (Figure 22). Both current vacancy rates are the highest in the last
fifteen years. In addition, the gap between the current vacancy rate in Bozeman
and Gallatin County is the highest in the last fifteen years. This gap is 1.8
percentage points.
2010 2010 2020 2025
Description 2010 2015 2020 2025 Q2 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Inventory (Sq. Ft.)
Bozeman 2,694,597 2,810,740 3,643,722 3,865,720 1,171,123 78,075 2.4%
Gallatin County 2,985,746 3,181,264 4,047,793 4,269,791 1,284,045 85,603 2.4%
Bozeman % of Gallatin County 90.2% 88.4% 90.0% 90.5%
Source: CoStar; Economic & Planning Systems
Z \Sh d\P j t \DEN\233073 B MT 2025Q2 M k t U d t \D t \[233073 C i l R l E t t 6 23 2025 l ]T Offi S
2010-2025 Q2
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 44 Market Trends
Figure 22. Office Vacancy Rates, 2010-2025 Q2
Remote Workers
Remote work peaked in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic altering
work patterns (Figure 23). Since then, the share of workers working remotely has
decreased, however it remains above pre-pandemic levels. As of 2023, 14.9
percent of Gallatin County workers work remotely. Four Corners CDP has the
highest rate of remote work with 17.3 percent of remote workers. This is followed
by Bozeman at 15.0 percent, and Manhattan at 14.5 percent. Communities such as
Belgrade and Three Forks have marginally lower rates (9.4 percent and 9.1
percent, respectively).
Figure 23. Office Remote Worker Trends 2010-2023
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 45 Baseline 20-Year Forecast
5. Baseline 20-Year Forecast
This chapter outlines a baseline 20-year forecast for employment, population, and
housing demand within Gallatin County. The projection uses employment growth
as a basis to determine population growth and housing demand.
Employment Forecast
The baseline employment forecast is constructed by projecting covered jobs (wage
and salary jobs “covered” by unemployment insurance) with a year-over-year
growth rate of 3.0 percent that tapers down to 1.5 percent over a twenty-year
period (Table 27). QCEW covered jobs excludes sole proprietors and includes
multiple job holders. To account for this, a constant 20.0 percent proprietor factor,
based on Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, is added to the number of
covered employees resulting in total jobs. Multiple job holders and in-commuters
are estimated with constant 8.3 percent and 6.0 percent factors derived from
Census data. The multiple job holder and in-commuter counts are subtracted from
total jobs to get the number of employees living and working in Gallatin County.
As shown, the model projects the number of employees living and working in
Gallatin County to increase by 38,400 workers between 2025 and 2045, or an
average of 1,920 per year. This total employment increase represents 49.2 percent
of the total estimated employees in 2025.
Table 27. Baseline Employment Forecast 2025-2045
2024 Base Year
Gallatin County Factor Estimate 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Growth Rate 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5%
Total Covered Jobs 73,200 75,400 84,400 95,100 104,400 112,500 37,100 1,855 2.0%
Plus Proprietors 20.0%14,600 15,100 16,900 19,000 20,900 22,500 7,400 370 2.0%
Total Jobs 87,800 90,500 101,300 114,100 125,300 135,000 44,500 2,225 2.0%
Less Multiple Job Holders 8.3%-7,300 -7,500 -8,400 -9,500 -10,400 -11,200 -3,700 -185 2.0%
Total Employees 80,500 83,000 92,900 104,600 114,900 123,800 40,800 2,040 2.0%
Less In-Commuters 6.0%-5,300 -5,000 -5,600 -6,300 -6,900 -7,400 -2,400 -120 2.0%
Employees Living/Working in G.C.75,200 78,000 87,300 98,300 108,000 116,400 38,400 1,920 2.0%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 46 Baseline 20-Year Forecast
Population Forecast
The population forecast connects employment growth to population growth using
an employment to population ratio constructed by EPS (Table 28). Typically, the
employment to population ratio is expressed as the ratio of total employment to
the population over the age of sixteen. The employment to population ratio uses
the total population as the denominator, thus the factor ratio is lower than the
Census or BLS estimate but allows employment to be converted into total
population as the labor force participation rate only includes people in the labor
force 16 and older.
Over the twenty-year forecast period, Gallatin County is expected to add 64,000
residents, or 3,200 residents per year. This total population increase represents
49.2 percent of the total estimated population in 2025.
Table 28. Baseline Population Forecast 2025-2045
Base Year
Gallatin County Factor 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Total Employees 75,200 78,000 87,300 98,300 108,000 116,400 38,400 1,920 2.0%
Employment to Population Ratio 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60
Total Population 125,300 130,000 145,500 163,800 180,000 194,000 64,000 3,200 2.0%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 47 Baseline 20-Year Forecast
Service Population
Service population represents the total residential population plus the total daily
in-commuters into Gallatin County. In Gallatin County, 6.0 percent of the total
employees in-commute from outside of Gallatin County (Table 29). In 2024, this
represents 2,300 people, resulting in an estimated service population of 132,300
people. By 2045, Gallatin County is forecast to have a service population of
197,500 people, with a total of 3,500 in-commuters. This information can be useful
to emergency response services and other services that serve residents and non-
residents.
Table 29. Baseline Service Population Forecast 2025-2045
Base Year
Gallatin County 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Total Population 125,300 130,000 145,500 163,800 180,000 194,000 64,000 3,200 2.0%
Total Employees 75,200 78,000 87,300 98,300 108,000 116,400 38,400 1,920 2.0%
In-Commuters 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
In-Commuters Weight 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
In-Commuters Impact 2,300 2,300 2,600 2,900 3,200 3,500 1,200 60 2.1%
Total Service Population 127,600 132,300 148,100 166,700 183,200 197,500 65,200 3,260 2.0%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 48 Baseline 20-Year Forecast
Population by Subareas
The 2024 share of Gallatin County population by area was used to allocate
population to the relevant subareas. This was held constant throughout the
baseline model. Over the forecast period, Bozeman, which accounted for 45.0
percent of County population in 2024, is forecasted to grow to 87,400 residents by
2045 (Table 30). A total of 28,800 residents are forecast to move into the city
during this period. This is followed by Unincorporated Gallatin County, which is
forecast to gain 22,800 residents, and Belgrade, which is forecast to gain 5,900
residents during the forecast period.
Table 30. Baseline Population Forecast, Subareas 2025-2045
Base Year
Areas 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
% of County
Belgrade 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3%
Big Sky CDP 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Bozeman 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0%
Four Corners CDP 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
Manhattan 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Three Forks 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Uninc./Remainder 35.7%35.7%35.7%35.7%35.7%35.7%
Total (Gallatin County)100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Population
Belgrade 11,700 12,200 13,600 15,300 16,800 18,100 5,900 295 2.0%
Big Sky CDP 2,400 2,500 2,800 3,200 3,500 3,800 1,300 65 2.1%
Bozeman 56,400 58,600 65,500 73,800 81,100 87,400 28,800 1,440 2.0%
Four Corners CDP 5,700 5,900 6,600 7,500 8,200 8,800 2,900 145 2.0%
Manhattan 2,200 2,300 2,600 2,900 3,200 3,400 1,100 55 2.0%
Three Forks 2,100 2,200 2,400 2,700 3,000 3,200 1,000 50 1.9%
Uninc./Remainder 44,700 46,400 51,900 58,400 64,200 69,200 22,800 1,140 2.0%
Total (Gallatin County)125,300 130,000 145,500 163,800 180,000 194,000 64,000 3,200 2.0%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 49 Baseline 20-Year Forecast
Housing Demand Forecast
The housing demand forecast connects population growth to housing demand.
Using a constant household size factor of 2.40 people per household the number of
occupied housing units is estimated (Table 31). Further adjustments are made for
market vacancies and second homes using constant factors for each. When added
to occupied housing units, the resulting sum is an estimate for total housing unit
demand.
Gallatin County
Housing unit demand in the baseline model is projected to increase consistently
with employment and population growth. In Gallatin County, there is expected to
be demand for 29,300 housing units from 2025 to 2045. Of the total units for
2045, 4.4 percent, or 3,900 units, are vacant, and 4.8 percent, or 4,200 units, are
part-time residences. The remainder (80,800 units) are forecast to be occupied
permanently.
Table 31. Baseline Housing Demand Forecast, Gallatin County
Triangle Area
The housing unit demand forecast for the Triangle area follows the same
methodology as Gallatin County. The model factors are adjusted to reflect the
unique demographic and market conditions in each of the Triangle subareas (Table
32). By the forecast sunset year, Bozeman is expected to have additional demand
for 13,100 occupied housing units, which represents 79.4 percent of the occupied
housing demand over the twenty-year forecast period. From 2025 to 2045,
Belgrade is forecast to have demand for an additional 2,400 housing units, bringing
its demand from 5,100 in 2025 to 7,500 units in 2045. Meanwhile, Four Corners
CDP has the lowest housing demand with a total of 1,000 new housing units in
demand over the twenty-year period.
Base Year
Gallatin County 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Average HH Size 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40
Market Vacancy 4.8%4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
Part-Time Residence Adjustment 5.2%5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
Gallatin County Population 125,300 130,000 145,500 163,800 180,000 194,000 64,000 3,200 2.0%
Average HH Size 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40
Occupied Housing Units 52,200 54,200 60,600 68,300 75,000 80,800 26,600 1,330 2.0%
Market Vacancy 2,500 2,600 2,900 3,300 3,600 3,900 1,300 65 2.0%
Part-Time Residence Adjustment 2,700 2,800 3,200 3,600 3,900 4,200 1,400 70 2.0%
Total Housing Unit Demand 57,400 59,600 66,700 75,200 82,500 88,900 29,300 1,465 2.0%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
Z \Sh d\P j t \DEN\253073 B MT P l ti d H i F t\M d l \[253073 E l t d H i D d 8 13 25 l ]T G ll ti HU F t
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 50 Baseline 20-Year Forecast
Table 32. Baseline Housing Demand Forecast, The Triangle Area 2025-2045
Base Year
Areas 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Average Household Size
Belgrade 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41
Bozeman 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19
Four Corners CDP 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73
Market Vacancy
Belgrade 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
Bozeman 5.02% 5.02% 5.02% 5.02% 5.02% 5.02%
Four Corners CDP 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32%
Second Homes
Belgrade 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Bozeman 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88%
Four Corners CDP 3.91% 3.91% 3.91% 3.91% 3.91% 3.91%
Population
Belgrade 11,700 12,200 13,600 15,300 16,800 18,100 5,900 295 2.0%
Bozeman 56,400 58,600 65,500 73,800 81,100 87,400 28,800 1,440 2.0%
Four Corners CDP 5,700 5,900 6,600 7,500 8,200 8,800 2,900 145 2.0%
Triangle Area 73,800 76,700 85,700 96,600 106,100 114,300 37,600 1,880 2.0%
Occupied Housing Units
Belgrade 4,900 5,100 5,600 6,300 7,000 7,500 2,400 120 1.9%
Bozeman 25,800 26,800 29,900 33,700 37,000 39,900 13,100 655 2.0%
Four Corners CDP 2,100 2,200 2,400 2,700 3,000 3,200 1,000 50 1.9%
Triangle Area 32,800 34,100 37,900 42,700 47,000 50,600 16,500 825 2.0%
Vacancy Adjustment
Belgrade 100 100 200 200 200 200 100 5 3.5%
Bozeman 1,300 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,000 700 35 2.2%
Four Corners CDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 0.0%
Triangle Area 1,500 1,500 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,300 800 40 2.2%
Second Home Adjustment
Belgrade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---
Bozeman 500 500 600 600 700 800 300 15 2.4%
Four Corners CDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 0.0%
Triangle Area 600 600 700 700 800 900 300 15 2.0%
Total Housing Unit Demand
Belgrade 5,000 5,200 5,800 6,500 7,200 7,700 2,500 125 2.0%
Bozeman 27,600 28,600 32,000 36,000 39,600 42,700 14,100 705 2.0%
Four Corners CDP 2,300 2,400 2,600 2,900 3,200 3,400 1,000 50 1.8%
Triangle Area 34,900 36,200 40,400 45,400 50,000 53,800 17,600 880 2.0%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 51 Amenity Driven 20-Year Forecast
6. Amenity Driven 20-Year Forecast
This chapter outlines the Amenity-Driven forecast for housing demand. In this
scenario, the share of part-time residences, or second homes, is increased from five
percent to ten percent over the 20-year period. In addition, the in-commuter factor
is increased from six percent to twelve percent over the twenty-year period.
Employment Forecast
The employment forecast for the Amenity-Driven model is constructed in a
comparable manner to the Baseline forecast (Table 33). Covered employment is
factored into total jobs using the same constant sole proprietor factor. The multiple
job holders’ factor is equivalent to the Baseline forecast and is also held constant
throughout the forecast period. The commuting factor is adjusted to reflect a
scenario where in-commuting increases from six percent to twelve percent over
the twenty-year period.
As shown below, the model projects the number of employees living and working in
Gallatin County to increase by 30,900 workers between 2025 and 2045, or an
average of 1,545 per year. This is an increase of 39.6 percent of total employees
living and working in Gallatin County.
Table 33. Amenity-Driven Employment Forecast, 2025-2045
2024 Base Year
Gallatin County Factor Estimate 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Growth Rate 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5%
In-Commuters 6.0% 7.5% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0%
Total Covered Jobs 73,200 75,400 84,400 95,100 104,400 112,500 37,100 1,855 2.0%
Plus Proprietors 20.0%14,600 15,100 16,900 19,000 20,900 22,500 7,400 370 2.0%
Total Jobs 87,800 90,500 101,300 114,100 125,300 135,000 44,500 2,225 2.0%
Less Multiple Job Holders 8.3%-7,300 -7,500 -8,400 -9,500 -10,400 -11,200 -3,700 -185 2.0%
Total Employees 80,500 83,000 92,900 104,600 114,900 123,800 40,800 2,040 2.0%
Less In-Commuters -5,300 -5,000 -7,000 -9,400 -12,100 -14,900 -9,900 -495 5.6%
Tot. Employees Living/Working in GC 75,200 78,000 85,900 95,200 102,800 108,900 30,900 1,545 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
Forecast 2025-2045 Change
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 52 Amenity Driven 20-Year Forecast
Population Forecast
The population forecast connects employment growth to population growth using
an employment to population ratio constructed by EPS (Table 34). Over the
twenty-year forecast period, Gallatin County is expected to add 51,500 residents,
or 2,575 residents per year. This total population growth represents 39.6 percent
of the 2025 estimated population. Compared to the Baseline Scenario, Gallatin
County is forecast to grow by 12,500 fewer residents due to less people living and
working in Gallatin County, based on increased in-commuting employees over the
twenty-year period.
Table 34. Amenity-Driven Population Forecast, 2025-2045
Service Population
Service population represents the total residential population plus the total daily
in-commuters into Gallatin County. Currently, 6.0 percent of the total employees
in-commute from outside of Gallatin County (Table 35). This represents 2,300
people, resulting in an estimated service population of 132,300 people. By 2045,
the in-commuter rate doubled to 12.0 percent resulting in a forecast service
population of 188,000 people, with a total of 6,500 in-commuters. The total
number of in-commuters is nearly doubled compared to the Baseline forecast due
to an increase in the in-commuting factor. In the Baseline scenario, a total of 3,500
in-commuters are forecasted by 2045. In this scenario, 6,500 in-commuters are
forecasted by 2045.
Table 35. Amenity-Driven Service Population Forecast 2025-2045
Base Year
Gallatin County Factor 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Total Employees 75,200 78,000 85,900 95,200 102,800 108,900 30,900 1,545 1.7%
Employment to Population Ratio 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60
Total Population 125,300 130,000 143,200 158,700 171,300 181,500 51,500 2,575 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
Base Year
Gallatin County 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Total Population 125,300 130,000 143,200 158,700 171,300 181,500 51,500 2,575 1.7%
Total Employees 75,200 78,000 85,900 95,200 102,800 108,900 30,900 1,545 1.7%
In-Commuters 6.0% 6.0% 7.5% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0%
In-Commuters Weight 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
In-Commuters Impact 2,300 2,300 3,200 4,300 5,400 6,500 4,200 210 5.3%
Total Service Population 127,600 132,300 146,400 163,000 176,700 188,000 55,700 2,785 1.8%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 53 Amenity Driven 20-Year Forecast
Population by Subareas
The 2024 share of Gallatin County population by area was used to allocate
population to the relevant subareas. This was held constant throughout the
Amenity-Driven model. Over the forecast period, Bozeman, which accounted for
45.0 percent of County population in 2024, is forecasted to grow to 81,800
residents by 2045 (Table 36). A total of 23,200 residents are forecast to move into
the city during this period. This is followed by Unincorporated Gallatin County,
which is forecast to gain 18,400 residents, and Belgrade, which is forecast to gain
4,800 residents during the forecast period.
Compared to the Baseline scenario, Gallatin County is forecast to add 12,500
fewer residents. Bozeman, which added 28,800 residents in the baseline model,
projects to add 23,200 residents, a difference of 5,600 residents. The increase in
the County commuting factor from 6.0 percent to 12.0 percent drives population
growth out of Gallatin County and its subareas.
Table 36. Amenity-Driven Population Forecast, Subareas, 2025-2045
Base Year
Areas 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Belgrade 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3%
Big Sky CDP 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Bozeman 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0%
Four Corners CDP 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
Manhattan 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Three Forks 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Uninc./Remainder 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7%
Total (Gallatin County)100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Belgrade 11,700 12,200 13,400 14,800 16,000 17,000 4,800 240 1.7%
Big Sky CDP 2,400 2,500 2,800 3,100 3,300 3,500 1,000 50 1.7%
Bozeman 56,400 58,600 64,500 71,500 77,200 81,800 23,200 1,160 1.7%
Four Corners CDP 5,700 5,900 6,500 7,200 7,800 8,300 2,400 120 1.7%
Manhattan 2,200 2,300 2,500 2,800 3,000 3,200 900 45 1.7%
Three Forks 2,100 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,900 3,000 800 40 1.6%
Uninc./Remainder 44,700 46,400 51,100 56,600 61,100 64,800 18,400 920 1.7%
Total (Gallatin County)125,300 130,000 143,200 158,700 171,300 181,500 51,500 2,575 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 54 Amenity Driven 20-Year Forecast
Housing Demand Forecast
The housing demand forecast connects population growth to housing unit demand.
Using a constant household size factor of 2.40 people per household the number of
occupied housing units is estimated (Table 37). Further adjustments are made for
market vacancies using a constant factor. The part-time residence adjustment is
adjusted to reflect a scenario where the part-time residence rate increases from
five percent to ten percent over the forecast period. When added to occupied
housing units, the resulting sum is an estimate for total housing unit demand.
Gallatin County
In Gallatin County, there is expected to be demand for 27,400 housing units from
2025 to 2045, bringing the total demand to 87,000 units (Table 37). Of this, 4.4
percent, or 3,800 units, are vacant, and 8.7 percent, or 7,600 units, are part-time
residences. The remainder, 75,600 units, are forecast to be occupied permanently.
Compared to the Baseline model, the higher part-time residence rate results in
demand for 3,400 additional part-time residences. Additionally, the increase in in-
commuting employees results in demand for 5,200 fewer occupied housing units
and 2,400 fewer total housing units.
Table 37. Amenity-Driven Housing Unit Demand Forecast, 2025-2045
Triangle Area
The housing unit demand forecast for the Triangle area follows the same
methodology as Gallatin County. The model factors are adjusted to reflect the
unique demographic and market conditions in each of the Triangle subareas (Table
38). For the Amenity-Driven forecast, the part-time residence factor is gradually
increased over the twenty-year period based on geography. This is done to
represent an increase in second homes within this scenario. For Belgrade, the part-
time residence factor is estimated as the census estimate for part-time residences
was zero percent in 2023.
Base Year
Gallatin County 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Average HH Size 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40
Market Vacancy 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Part-Time Residence Adjustment 5.0% 5.0% 6.3% 7.5% 8.8% 10.0%
Gallatin County Population 125,300 130,000 143,200 158,700 171,300 181,500 51,500 2,575 1.7%
Average HH Size 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40
Occupied Housing Units 52,200 54,200 59,700 66,100 71,400 75,600 21,400 1,070 1.7%
Market Vacancy 2,600 2,700 3,000 3,300 3,600 3,800 1,100 55 1.7%
Part-Time Residence Adjustment 2,600 2,700 3,700 5,000 6,200 7,600 4,900 245 5.3%
Total Housing Unit Demand 57,400 59,600 66,400 74,400 81,200 87,000 27,400 1,370 1.9%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 55 Amenity Driven 20-Year Forecast
By the forecast sunset year, Bozeman is expected to have additional demand for
10,600 occupied housing units, which represents 79.1 percent of the change in
total housing demand over the twenty-year forecast period. From 2025 to 2045,
Belgrade is forecast to have demand for an additional 2,000 occupied housing
units, bringing its demand from 5,100 units in 2025 to 7,100 units in 2045.
Meanwhile, Four Corners CDP has the lowest occupied housing unit demand with
a total of 800 new occupied housing units in demand over the twenty-year period.
Each subarea that comprises the Triangle Area is expected to lose housing unit
demand and gain part-time residence demand compared to the baseline forecast.
Occupied housing unit demand falls by 3,100 units and part-time residence
demand increases by 2,800 units. Total housing unit demand is relatively
unchanged, falling by 400 units as losses in occupied housing unit demand are
made up for by a rise in demand for second homes.
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 56 Amenity Driven 20-Year Forecast
Table 38. Amenity-Driven Housing Unit Demand Forecast, The Triangle Area, 2025-2045
Base Year
Areas 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Average Household Size
Belgrade 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41
Bozeman 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19
Four Corners CDP 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73
Market Vacancy
Belgrade 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
Bozeman 5.02% 5.02% 5.02% 5.02% 5.02% 5.02%
Four Corners CDP 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32%
Second Homes
Belgrade 0.00% 0.00% 1.79% 3.57% 5.36% 7.14%
Bozeman 1.88% 1.88% 3.23% 4.57% 5.92% 7.27%
Four Corners CDP 3.91% 3.91% 6.71% 9.51% 12.30% 15.10%
Population
Belgrade 11,700 12,200 13,400 14,800 16,000 17,000 4,800 240 1.7%
Bozeman 56,400 58,600 64,500 71,500 77,200 81,800 23,200 1,160 1.7%
Four Corners CDP 5,700 5,900 6,500 7,200 7,800 8,300 2,400 120 1.7%
Triangle Area 73,800 76,700 84,400 93,500 101,000 107,100 30,400 1,520 1.7%
Occupied Housing Units
Belgrade 4,900 5,100 5,600 6,100 6,600 7,100 2,000 100 1.7%
Bozeman 25,800 26,800 29,500 32,600 35,300 37,400 10,600 530 1.7%
Four Corners CDP 2,100 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,900 3,000 800 40 1.6%
Triangle Area 32,800 34,100 37,500 41,300 44,800 47,500 13,400 670 1.7%
Vacancy Adjustment
Belgrade 100 100 200 200 200 200 100 5 3.5%
Bozeman 1,300 1,300 1,500 1,600 1,800 1,900 600 30 1.9%
Four Corners CDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 0.0%
Triangle Area 1,500 1,500 1,800 1,900 2,100 2,200 700 35 1.9%
Part-Time Residence Adjustment
Belgrade 0 0 100 200 400 500 500 25 ---
Bozeman 500 500 1,000 1,500 2,100 2,700 2,200 110 8.8%
Four Corners CDP 100 100 200 200 400 500 400 20 8.4%
Triangle Area 600 600 1,300 1,900 2,900 3,700 3,100 155 9.5%
Total Housing Unit Demand
Belgrade 5,000 5,200 5,900 6,500 7,200 7,800 2,600 130 2.0%
Bozeman 27,600 28,600 32,000 35,700 39,200 42,000 13,400 670 1.9%
Four Corners CDP 2,300 2,400 2,700 2,900 3,400 3,600 1,200 60 2.0%
Triangle Area 34,900 36,200 40,600 45,100 49,800 53,400 17,200 860 2.0%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 Change
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 57 Constrained City 20-Year Forecast
7. Constrained City 20-Year Forecast
This chapter outlines the Constrained City forecast. In this scenario, Bozeman
captures a decreasing share of Gallatin County population. Starting at 50 percent
growth capture and tapering down to 26 percent by 2045. In addition, the Gallatin
County in-commuter factor is increased from six percent to twelve percent over
the twenty-year period. As a result, Bozeman’s share of County population
decreases while the other Gallatin County subareas see accelerated population
growth.
Employment Forecast
The employment forecast for the Constrained City model is constructed the same
as the Amenity-Driven forecast (Table 39). Covered employment is factored into
total jobs using the same sole proprietor factor. The multiple job holders’ factor is
equivalent to the baseline forecast and is held constant throughout the forecast
period. The commuting factor is adjusted to reflect a scenario where in-commuting
increases from six percent to twelve percent over the twenty-year period.
As shown below, the model projects the number of employees living and working in
Gallatin County to increase by 30,900 workers between 2025 and 2045, or an
average of 1,545 per year. From 2025 to 2045, this is an increase of 39.6 percent of
total employees living and working in Gallatin County.
Table 39. Constrained City Employment Forecast 2025-2045
2024 Base Year
Gallatin County Factor Estimate 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Growth Rate 3.0%3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5%
In-Commuters 6.0% 7.5% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0%
Total Covered Jobs 73,200 75,400 84,400 95,100 104,400 112,500 37,100 1,855 2.0%
Plus Proprietors 20.0%14,600 15,100 16,900 19,000 20,900 22,500 7,400 370 2.0%
Total Jobs 87,800 90,500 101,300 114,100 125,300 135,000 44,500 2,225 2.0%
Less Multiple Job Holders 8.3%-7,300 -7,500 -8,400 -9,500 -10,400 -11,200 -3,700 -185 2.0%
Total Employees 80,500 83,000 92,900 104,600 114,900 123,800 40,800 2,040 2.0%
Less In-Commuters 6.0%-5,300 -5,000 -7,000 -9,400 -12,100 -14,900 -9,900 -495 5.6%
Tot. Employees Living/Working in GC 75,200 78,000 85,900 95,200 102,800 108,900 30,900 1,545 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
Forecast 2025-2045 Change
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 58 Constrained City 20-Year Forecast
Population Forecast
The population forecast connects employment growth to population growth using
an employment to population ratio constructed by EPS (Table 40).Over the
twenty-year forecast period, Gallatin County is expected to add 51,500 residents,
or 2,575 residents per year. This growth rate represents 39.6 percent of the 2025
estimated population. The methodology for the constrained city population
forecast is unchanged from the Amenity-Driven forecast. Compared to the
Baseline Forecast, the increase in the commuting factor results in 12,500 fewer
jobs added over the forecast period.
Table 40. Constrained City Population Forecast 2025-2045
Service Population
Service population represents the total residential population plus the total daily
in-commuters into Gallatin County. In Gallatin County, 6.0 percent of the total
employees in-commute from outside of Gallatin County (Table 41). In 2024, this
represents 2,300 people, resulting in an estimated service population of 127,600
people. By 2045, the in-commuter adjustment is doubled to 12.0 percent resulting
in a forecast service population of 188,000 people, with a total of 6,500 in-
commuters. Compared to the Baseline scenario, the increased in-commuting factor
results in a service population decrease of 9,500 over the forecast period.
Table 41. Constrained City Service Population Forecast 2025-2045
Base Year
Gallatin County Factor 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Total Employees 75,200 78,000 85,900 95,200 102,800 108,900 30,900 1,545 1.7%
Employment to Population Ratio 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60
Total Population 125,300 130,000 143,200 158,700 171,300 181,500 51,500 2,575 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
Base Year
Gallatin County 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Total Population 125,300 130,000 143,200 158,700 171,300 181,500 51,500 2,575 1.7%
Total Employees 75,200 78,000 85,900 95,200 102,800 108,900 30,900 1,545 1.7%
In-Commuters 6.0% 6.0% 7.5% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0%
In-Commuters Weight 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
In-Commuters Impact 2,300 2,300 3,200 4,300 5,400 6,500 4,200 210 5.3%
Total Service Population 127,600 132,300 146,400 163,000 176,700 188,000 55,700 2,785 1.8%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 59 Constrained City 20-Year Forecast
Population Growth by Subareas
The Constrained City scenario forecasts population growth by subarea using a
different methodology than the Baseline and Amenity-Driven scenarios. The first
two forecast scenarios use the static 2024 ratio of subarea population to county
population to allocate growth to each subarea. In the constrained city, population
growth is allocated to each subarea using the share of Gallatin County population
growth between 2000 and 2024 (Table 42). The yearly County population growth
is assigned to each subarea by multiplying the growth capture estimate by the year
over year change in forecasted population growth. Over the twenty-year forecast
period Bozeman’s share of County growth is reduced from 49.7 percent to 26.2
percent. Simultaneously, the other subareas have increased growth capture such
that each year’s forecasted growth capture continues to sum to 100.0 percent.
Table 42. Forecasted Change in Population Growth Capture, 2025-2045
2000-2024 Growth
Gallatin County Subareas Capture Estimate 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Belgrade 9.3% 10.4% 11.6% 12.8% 14.0% 15.2%
Big Sky CDP 2.0% 2.2% 3.1% 4.0% 4.9% 5.9%
Bozeman 45.0% 49.7% 43.8% 38.0% 32.1% 26.2%
Four Corners CDP 4.6% 7.0% 7.9% 8.8% 9.7% 10.6%
Manhattan 1.8% 1.4% 2.3% 3.2% 4.0% 4.9%
Three Forks 1.7% 0.6% 1.4% 2.3% 3.2% 4.1%
Uninc./Remainder 35.7% 28.8% 29.9% 31.0% 32.0% 33.1%
Total (Gallatin County)100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Belgrade 0.24%488 347 345 251 334 -154 -8 -1.9%
Big Sky CDP 0.19%101 93 109 89 129 28 1 1.2%
Bozeman -1.18%2,338 1,315 1,025 577 576 -1,762 -88 -6.8%
Four Corners CDP 0.18%330 238 238 175 234 -96 -5 -1.7%
Manhattan 0.18%65 68 85 73 108 43 2 2.6%
Three Forks 0.18%26 43 63 58 91 65 3 6.5%
Uninc./Remainder 0.22%1,352 896 836 577 729 -623 -31 -3.0%
G.C. YoY Population Change 4,700 3,000 2,700 1,800 2,200 -2,500 -125 -3.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
Share of Forecast Change 2025-2045
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 60 Constrained City 20-Year Forecast
The growth is then added to the base year population estimate and each
subsequent year in the forecast (Table 43) . Over the forecast period, Bozeman is
forecasted to grow to 78,300 residents by 2045. A total of 19,600 residents are
forecast to move into the city during this period. This is followed by
Unincorporated Gallatin County, which is forecast to gain 15,800 residents, and
Belgrade, which is forecast to gain 6,700 residents during the forecast period.
Compared to the Baseline scenario, Bozeman is forecast to gain 9,200 less
residents, while the other subareas are forecast to gain 2,700 less residents, largely
due to the increased in-commuting factor. Despite gaining fewer residents over the
forecast period, the annual average growth rate for the subareas are all above that
of Bozeman, ranging from 3.0 percent to 1.5 percent average annual growth.
Table 43. Constrained City Population Forecast, Subareas 2025-2045
As a result of Bozeman’s declining share of County-wide population growth
capture, by 2045 the City is expected to make up 43.1 percent of Gallatin County,
2.1 percentage points less than at the start of the forecast period (Table 44). The
other subareas are forecast to proportionally increase their share of County
population.
Table 44. Share of County Population by Subarea, 2025-2045
2000-2024 Growth
Gallatin County Subareas Capture Estimate 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Belgrade 11,700 12,200 13,700 15,600 17,400 18,900 6,700 335 2.2%
Big Sky CDP 2,400 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2,000 100 3.0%
Bozeman 56,400 58,700 64,800 71,000 75,400 78,300 19,600 980 1.5%
Four Corners CDP 5,700 6,000 7,000 8,400 9,600 10,600 4,600 230 2.9%
Manhattan 2,200 2,300 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1,700 85 2.8%
Three Forks 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,600 3,100 3,600 1,500 75 2.7%
Uninc./Remainder 44,700 46,100 49,900 54,600 58,600 61,900 15,800 790 1.5%
Total (Gallatin County)125,200 129,900 143,000 158,700 171,600 181,800 51,900 2,595 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
Forecast 2025-2045
2024 Base Year Growth
Gallatin County Subareas Capture Estimate 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Belgrade 9.3% 9.4% 9.6% 9.8% 10.1% 10.4%
Big Sky CDP 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5%
Bozeman 45.0% 45.2% 45.3% 44.7% 43.9% 43.1%
Four Corners CDP 4.6% 4.6% 4.9% 5.3% 5.6% 5.8%
Manhattan 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2%
Three Forks 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%
Uninc./Remainder 35.7% 35.5% 34.9% 34.4% 34.1% 34.0%
Total (Gallatin County)100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
Share of Forecast Pop
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 61 Constrained City 20-Year Forecast
Housing Demand Forecast
The housing demand forecast connects population growth to housing demand.
Using a constant household size factor of 2.40 people per household, the number
of occupied housing units is estimated (Table 45). No adjustments are made to the
market vacancy and part-time residence rates, which are held constant throughout
the forecast period.
Gallatin County
In Gallatin County, there is expected to be demand for an additional 22,800
housing units from 2025 to 2045, bringing the total demand to 83,200 (Table 45).
Of this, 4.7 percent, or 3,800 units, are vacant, and 4.7 percent, or 3,800 units, are
part-time residences. The remainder, 75,600 units, are forecast to be occupied
permanently. Compared to the Baseline model, the increase in the in-commuter
rate results in demand for 5,700 fewer total housing units and 5,200 fewer
occupied housing units. Further adjustments are made for market vacancies and
part-time residences using a constant factor.
Table 45. Constrained City Housing Unit Demand Forecast 2025-2045
Triangle Area
The housing unit demand forecast for the Triangle area follows the same
methodology as Gallatin County. The model factors are adjusted to reflect the
unique demographic and market conditions in each of the Triangle subareas (Table
46). By the forecast sunset year, Bozeman is expected to have additional demand
for 9,000 occupied housing units, which represents 67.1 percent of the total
occupied housing demand in the Triangle Area—a rate that is much lower than the
first two scenarios.
From 2025 to 2045, Belgrade is forecast to have demand for an additional 2,700
occupied housing units. Meanwhile, Four Corners CDP has the lowest occupied
housing demand with a total of 1,700 occupied housing units in demand over the
twenty-year period. Compared to the Baseline scenario, total housing unit demand
Base Year
Gallatin County 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Average HH Size 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40
Market Vacancy 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Part-Time Residence Adjustment 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Gallatin County Population 125,300 130,000 143,200 158,700 171,300 181,500 51,500 2,575 1.7%
Occupied Housing Units 52,200 54,200 59,700 66,100 71,400 75,600 21,400 1,070 1.7%
Market Vacancy 2,600 2,700 3,000 3,300 3,600 3,800 1,100 55 1.7%
Part-Time Residence Adjustment 2,600 2,700 3,000 3,300 3,600 3,800 1,100 55 1.7%
Total Housing Unit Demand 57,400 59,600 65,700 72,700 78,600 83,200 23,600 1,180 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 62 Constrained City 20-Year Forecast
is forecast to decrease by 3,300 total units and 3,100 occupied units as growth in
Belgrade and Four Corners CDP accelerates. The forecast for additional housing
needs in Bozeman under the Constrained City scenario shows 4,100 fewer
occupied units and 4,400 fewer units than in the Baseline scenario.
Table 46. Constrained City Housing Unit Demand Forecast, The Triangle Area 2025-2045
Base Year
Areas 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Average Household Size
Belgrade 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41
Bozeman 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19
Four Corners CDP 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73
Market Vacancy
Belgrade 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
Bozeman 5.02% 5.02% 5.02% 5.02% 5.02% 5.02%
Four Corners CDP 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32%
Second Homes
Belgrade 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Bozeman 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88%
Four Corners CDP 3.91% 3.91% 3.91% 3.91% 3.91% 3.91%
Population
Belgrade 11,700 12,200 13,700 15,600 17,400 18,900 6,700 335 2.2%
Bozeman 56,400 58,700 64,800 71,000 75,400 78,300 19,600 980 1.5%
Four Corners CDP 5,700 6,000 7,000 8,400 9,600 10,600 4,600 230 2.9%
Triangle Area 73,800 76,900 85,500 95,000 102,400 107,800 30,900 1,545 1.7%
Occupied Housing Units
Belgrade 4,900 5,100 5,700 6,500 7,200 7,800 2,700 135 2.1%
Bozeman 25,800 26,800 29,600 32,400 34,400 35,800 9,000 450 1.5%
Four Corners CDP 2,100 2,200 2,600 3,100 3,500 3,900 1,700 85 2.9%
Triangle Area 32,800 34,100 37,900 42,000 45,100 47,500 13,400 670 1.7%
Vacancy Adjustment
Belgrade 100 100 200 200 200 200 100 5 3.5%
Bozeman 1,300 1,300 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 500 25 1.6%
Four Corners CDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 0.0%
Triangle Area 1,500 1,500 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 600 30 1.7%
Part-Time Residence Adjustment
Belgrade 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---
Bozeman 500 500 600 600 600 700 200 10 1.7%
Four Corners CDP 100 100 100 100 100 200 100 5 3.5%
Triangle Area 600 600 700 700 700 900 300 15 2.0%
Total Housing Unit Demand
Belgrade 5,000 5,200 5,900 6,700 7,400 8,000 2,800 140 2.2%
Bozeman 27,600 28,600 31,700 34,600 36,700 38,300 9,700 485 1.5%
Four Corners CDP 2,300 2,400 2,800 3,300 3,700 4,200 1,800 90 2.8%
Triangle Area 34,900 36,200 40,400 44,600 47,800 50,500 14,300 715 1.7%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 1 Constrained City 20-Year Forecast
Appendix
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 2 Constrained City 20-Year Forecast
Table 47. City of Belgrade Forecasts, Summary Table
Belgrade 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Jobs
Baseline 5,500 6,200 6,900 7,600 8,200 2,700 135 2.0%
Amenity Driven 5,500 6,200 6,900 7,600 8,200 2,700 135 2.0%
City Constrained 5,500 6,200 6,900 7,600 8,200 2,700 135 2.0%
Population
Baseline 12,200 13,600 15,300 16,800 18,100 5,900 295 2.0%
Amenity Driven 12,200 13,400 14,800 16,000 17,000 4,800 240 1.7%
City Constrained 12,200 13,700 15,600 17,400 18,900 6,700 335 2.2%
Total Housing Unit Demand
Baseline 5,200 5,800 6,500 7,200 7,700 2,500 125 2.0%
Amenity Driven 5,200 5,900 6,500 7,200 7,800 2,600 130 2.0%
City Constrained 5,200 5,900 6,700 7,400 8,000 2,800 140 2.2%
Occupied Housing Units
Baseline 5,100 5,600 6,300 7,000 7,500 2,400 120 1.9%
Amenity Driven 5,100 5,600 6,100 6,600 7,100 2,000 100 1.7%
City Constrained 5,100 5,700 6,500 7,200 7,800 2,700 135 2.1%
Vacant and Second Homes
Baseline 100 200 200 200 200 100 5 3.5%
Amenity Driven 100 300 400 600 700 600 30 10.2%
City Constrained 100 200 200 200 200 100 5 3.5%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
Forecast 2025-2045 Change
2025-2045 BOZEMAN POPULATION AND HOUSING FORECAST
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 3 Constrained City 20-Year Forecast
Table 48. Four Corners CDP Forecasts, Summary Table
Four Corners 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total Ann. # Ann. %
Jobs
Baseline 5,500 6,200 6,900 7,600 8,200 2,700 135 2.0%
Amenity Driven 5,500 6,200 6,900 7,600 8,200 2,700 135 2.0%
City Constrained 5,500 6,200 6,900 7,600 8,200 2,700 135 2.0%
Population
Baseline 5,900 6,600 7,500 8,200 8,800 2,900 145 2.0%
Amenity Driven 5,900 6,500 7,200 7,800 8,300 2,400 120 1.7%
City Constrained 6,000 7,000 8,400 9,600 10,600 4,600 230 2.9%
Total Housing Unit Demand
Baseline 2,400 2,600 2,900 3,200 3,400 1,000 50 1.8%
Amenity Driven 2,400 2,700 2,900 3,400 3,600 1,200 60 2.0%
City Constrained 2,400 2,800 3,300 3,700 4,200 1,800 90 2.8%
Occupied Housing Units
Baseline 2,200 2,400 2,700 3,000 3,200 1,000 50 1.9%
Amenity Driven 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,900 3,000 800 40 1.6%
City Constrained 2,200 2,600 3,100 3,500 3,900 1,700 85 2.9%
Vacant and Second Homes
Baseline 200 200 200 200 200 0 0 0.0%
Amenity Driven 200 300 300 500 600 400 20 5.6%
City Constrained 200 200 200 200 300 100 5 2.0%
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
2025-2045 ChangeForecast