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HomeMy WebLinkAboutFINAL 2024 Enrollment Memo for District 7 Board Agenda DATE: November 11, 2024 TO: Board of Trustees All Administrators FROM: Lacy Clark, Director of Business Services RE: 2024 Enrollment Count and Future Projections Overview of Current Enrollment Trends Enrollment in Bozeman Public Schools for the 2024-2025 academic year increased by 22 students, bringing the total to 7,408. This represents a 0.30% increase from October 1, 2023, and sets a new all-time high enrollment count for the District. The breakdown of enrollment by school level is as follows: • PreK-5 Elementary: 3,060 students • 6-8 Middle School: 1,566 students • 9-12 High School: 2,782 students While overall enrollment has increased, there are some notable trends: • PreK-5: An increase of 7 students was recorded, largely attributed to the addition of the Bozeman Reads Early Learning Center, which enrolled 34 additional students for a total of 72 students. Excluding this addition, K-5 enrollment decreased by 27 students. Particularly large reductions occurred in 1st, 2nd, and 4th grades, leading to an overall loss of 82 students at those grade levels. • 6-8 Middle School: Enrollment decreased by 24 students. • 9-12 High School: Enrollment increased by 39 students, continuing the trend of growth in high school enrollment for the 14th consecutive year. However, this marks the smallest increase since 2019. Key Highlights and Observations • Kindergarten Enrollment: Kindergarten enrollment increased by 19 students in 2024, following a decline of 47 students in the prior year. Despite this increase, Kindergarten enrollment remains near 15-year lows, with 463 students in the current class. The recent trend in local hospital births shows a continued decline in the birth rate from 2017 to 2020, with a notable rebound in 2021. Given the smaller birth cohorts through 2020, it is anticipated that Kindergarten classes will remain smaller through the 2025-2026 school year before rebounding. Lacy Clark Director of Business Services District Clerk Voice: (406) 522-6045 Fax: (406) 522-6050 Lacy.Clark@bsd7.org Bozeman Public Schools 404 West Main, P.O. Box 520 Bozeman, MT 59771-0520 www.bsd7.org • PreK-5 Enrollment Trends: Overall PreK-5 enrollment saw an increase of 7 students, primarily driven by the new Bozeman Reads Early Learning Center. Excluding this addition, there was a net decrease of 27 students in grades K-5. The smallest class sizes are found in Kindergarten and 1st grade, with enrollments of 463 and 457 students, respectively. As these smaller classes progress through the District, it is expected that K-5 enrollment will continue to decline over the next few years. o School-Specific Trends: • Meadowlark, Hyalite, and Irving saw the largest reductions in student enrollment, with a combined loss of 51 students. • Morning Star experienced an overall increase of 36 students, again largely due to the addition of four Bozeman Reads Early Literacy classrooms there. However, K-5 enrollment at Morning Star decreased by 36 students due to a drop in enrollment in grades K-5. • Emily Dickinson now has the highest K-5 enrollment, with 529 students, a record for the school. • Middle School Enrollment: The 6-8 middle school level experienced a decrease of 24 students. The current 8th grade class, is the largest grade in the K-8 cohort which accounts for 551 students. With smaller 5th grade cohorts expected to move into middle school in the coming years, middle school enrollment is projected to continue declining. • High School Enrollment: High school enrollment increased by 39 students, continuing the trend of growth over the past fourteen years. This marks a new record high of 2,782 students. While enrollment continued to rise, Gallatin High School saw a decline of 43 students, as new high school enrollees were registered at Bozeman High School. Bozeman High now has 1,345 students – an increase of 82 students over last year. This enrollment dramatically impacted the enrollment balance leaving difference of just 92 students between the two schools—down significantly from the 217-student difference recorded in October 2023. Enrollment Projections and Trends Projected enrollment for the 2024-2025 academic year was made last year and compared to actual enrollment data for October 2024. The overall variance between projected and actual enrollment is small, with a margin of error of just 1.3%— slightly up from the previous year’s margin of 1.29%. Level Projected 2024 Enrollment Actual 2024 Enrollment Variance Elementary K-5 2,981 3,060 +79 Middle School 6-8 1,572 1,566 -6 Elementary Subtotal 4,553 4,626 +73 High School 9-12 2,760 2,782 +22 K-12 Total 7,313 7,408 +95 For 2025-2026, enrollment projections were calculated on a three-, five-, and ten-year cohort survival (CSR) bases, and are included in this report. The Kindergarten projections are based on live birth data and census data, and are the same for each CSR projection. This year, for the District’s official 2025-26 enrollment projections, Administration recommends using the 3-year CSR for grades PreK-12. Based on that model, projected enrollment for October 2025 is: PreK-5: 3,042 6-8: 1,564 9-12: 2,814 Total: 7,420 The District also plans to expand the Bozeman Reads Early Literacy program by adding two more classrooms at Morning Star Elementary, bringing the total number to six classrooms for the 2025-2026 school year. This expansion is expected to increase PreK enrollment to 108 students, with a class size of 18 students per room. Conclusion and Considerations for the Future Bozeman Public Schools continued to experience minimal overall growth in total enrollment, though there are shifts within specific grade levels and schools. Smaller cohort sizes, particularly in the lower elementary grades, may lead to decreased enrollment in the coming years. Additionally, potential changes resulting from the upcoming legislative session could impact future enrollment patterns. These factors are difficult to predict at this time and may introduce unforeseen variables into the district’s projections. The District will continue to monitor these trends and adjust its planning as necessary. Bozeman Public Schools Enrollment Comparison 10/1/... 2024 Increase Grade 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (Decrease) Pre-K -Bozeman Reads 21 31 36 29 40 31 35 39 38 72 34 K - Regular Full Time 525 552 497 504 547 421 517 491 444 463 19 1 525 531 544 509 505 483 488 520 497 457 (40) 2 528 542 521 545 510 465 503 488 534 509 (25) 3 484 546 538 539 552 478 509 523 507 527 20 4 532 483 557 550 523 510 489 503 520 503 (17) 5 443 530 492 559 548 504 529 491 513 529 16 Pre K-5 Total 3,058 3,215 3,185 3,235 3,225 2,892 3,070 3,055 3,053 3,060 7 6 489 462 551 493 572 538 520 527 503 513 10 7 490 489 482 555 490 553 542 520 547 502 (45) 8 493 489 502 488 564 483 576 550 540 551 11 6-8 Total 1,472 1,440 1,535 1,536 1,626 1,574 1,638 1,597 1,590 1,566 (24) Pre K-8 Total 4,530 4,655 4,720 4,771 4,851 4,466 4,708 4,652 4,643 4,626 (17) 9 526 590 585 605 601 703 666 727 726 693 (33) 10 537 526 565 554 586 595 694 646 718 735 17 11 496 512 501 550 544 571 602 658 638 699 61 12 437 490 517 515 529 529 547 599 661 655 (6) 9-12 Total 1,996 2,118 2,168 2,224 2,260 2,398 2,509 2,630 2,743 2,782 39 Pre K-12 Total 6,526 6,773 6,888 6,995 7,111 6,864 7,217 7,282 7,386 7,408 22 2024 Increase School 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (Decrease) Emily Dickinson 452 483 478 528 519 480 518 519 525 529 4 Hawthorne 338 355 355 349 363 315 344 348 333 348 15 Hyalite 437 476 457 472 476 439 477 510 537 518 (19) Irving 275 273 272 266 254 219 198 184 184 173 (11) Longfellow 335 322 319 325 309 268 275 297 271 288 17 Meadowlark 435 505 529 530 537 493 486 495 509 488 (21) Morning Star 494 496 499 493 487 433 440 424 422 458 36 Whittier 292 305 276 272 280 245 263 249 259 258 (1) Bozeman Online Charter School - - - - - - 69 29 13 - (13) PreK - 5 Total 3,058 3,215 3,185 3,235 3,225 2,892 3,070 3,055 3,053 3,060 7 Chief Joseph MS 769 758 786 749 763 742 748 752 758 754 (4) Sacajawea MS 703 682 749 787 863 832 851 830 813 812 (1) Bozeman Online Charter School - - - - - - 39 15 19 - (19) 6-8 Total 1,472 1,440 1,535 1,536 1,626 1,574 1,638 1,597 1,590 1,566 (24) Pre K - 8 Total 4,530 4,655 4,720 4,771 4,851 4,466 4,708 4,652 4,643 4,626 (17) Bozeman HS/BCA 1,996 2,118 2,168 2,224 2,260 1,468 1,233 1,279 1,263 1,345 82 Gallatin HS - - - - - 930 1,276 1,351 1,480 1,437 (43) 9-12 Total 1,996 2,118 2,168 2,224 2,260 2,398 2,509 2,630 2,743 2,782 39 Pre K - 12 Total 6,526 6,773 6,888 6,995 7,111 6,864 7,217 7,282 7,386 7,408 22 Bozeman Public Schools Enrollment Comparison 10/1... 2024 Increase Grade 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (Decrease) Pre K-5 3,058 3,215 3,185 3,235 3,225 2,892 3,070 3,055 3,053 3,060 7 6-8 1,472 1,440 1,535 1,536 1,626 1,574 1,638 1,597 1,590 1,566 (24) K-8 4,530 4,655 4,720 4,771 4,851 4,466 4,708 4,652 4,643 4,626 (17) 9-12 1,996 2,118 2,168 2,224 2,260 2,398 2,509 2,630 2,743 2,782 39 Pre K-12 Total 6,526 6,773 6,888 6,995 7,111 6,864 7,217 7,282 7,386 7,408 22 GradeCSR20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034Pre-K (Bzn Reads) - 21 31 36 29 40 31 35 39 38 72 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 5-yr old K 101.50% 504 521 497 504 547 421 517 491 444 463 446 490 497 504 512 520 528 536 544 552 1 101.58% 525 531 544 509 505 483 488 520 497 457 470 453 498 505 512 520 528 536 544 553 2 101.70% 528 542 521 545 510 465 503 488 534 509 465 478 461 506 514 521 529 537 545 553 3 102.19% 484 546 538 539 552 478 509 523 507 527 520 475 488 471 517 525 532 541 549 557 4 99.15% 532 483 557 550 523 510 489 503 520 503 523 516 471 484 467 513 521 527 536 544 5 101.38% 443 530 492 559 548 504 529 491 513 529 510 530 523 477 491 473 520 528 534 543 PreK-5 Total 3,037 3,184 3,185 3,235 3,225 2,892 3,070 3,055 3,053 3,060 3,042 3,050 3,046 3,055 3,121 3,180 3,266 3,313 3,360 3,410 6 100.69% 489 462 551 493 572 538 520 527 503 513 533 514 534 527 480 494 476 524 532 538 7 101.20% 490 489 482 555 490 553 542 520 547 502 519 539 520 540 533 486 500 482 530 538 8 102.02% 493 489 502 488 564 483 576 550 540 551 512 529 550 530 551 544 496 510 492 541 6-8 Total 1,472 1,440 1,535 1,536 1,626 1,574 1,638 1,597 1,590 1,566 1,564 1,582 1,604 1,597 1,564 1,524 1,472 1,516 1,554 1,617 PreK-8 Total 4,509 4,624 4,720 4,771 4,851 4,466 4,708 4,652 4,643 4,626 4,606 4,632 4,650 4,652 4,685 4,704 4,738 4,829 4,914 5,027 9 128.85% 526 590 585 605 601 703 666 727 726 693 710 660 682 709 683 710 701 639 657 634 10 99.00% 537 526 565 554 586 595 694 646 718 735 686 703 653 675 702 676 703 694 633 650 11 96.98% 496 512 501 550 544 571 602 658 638 699 713 665 682 633 655 681 656 682 673 614 12 100.87% 437 490 517 515 529 529 547 599 661 655 705 719 671 688 639 661 687 662 688 679 9-12 Total 1,996 2,118 2,168 2,224 2,260 2,398 2,509 2,630 2,743 2,782 2,814 2,747 2,688 2,705 2,679 2,728 2,747 2,677 2,651 2,577 PreK-12 Total 6,505 6,742 6,888 6,995 7,111 6,864 7,217 7,282 7,386 7,408 7,420 7,379 7,338 7,357 7,364 7,432 7,485 7,506 7,565 7,604 # Change 6,505 237 146 107 116 (247) 353 65 104 22 12 (41) (41) 19 7 68 53 21 59 39 % Change 3.35% 3.64% 2.17% 1.55% 1.66% -3.47% 5.14% 0.90% 1.43% 0.30% 0.16% -0.55% -0.56% 0.26% 0.10% 0.92% 0.71% 0.28% 0.79% 0.52% Avg. CSR 102.85%Bozeman Public SchoolsEnrollment ProjectionsCohort Survival Calculated over 3 Years for all grade bandsOctober 1,Projected Enrollment 11/6/2024GradeCSR201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320344-yr old K - 21 31 36 29 40 31 35 39 38 72 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 5-yr old K 101.50% 504 521 497 504 547 421 517 491 444 463 446490497 504 512 520 528 536 544 552 1 101.79% 525 531 544 509 505 483 488 520 497 457 471 454 499 506 513 521 529 537 546 554 2 100.27% 528 542 521 545 510 465 503 488 534 509 458 473 455 500 507 514 522 530 538 547 3 101.95% 484 546 538 539 552 478 509 523 507 527 519 467 482 464 510 517 524 532 540 548 4 98.43% 532 483 557 550 523 510 489 503 520 503 519 511 460 474 457 502 509 516 524 532 5100.84%443 530 492 559 548 504 529 491 513 529 507 523 515 464 478 461 506 513 520 528 PreK-5 Total3,037 3,184 3,185 3,235 3,225 2,892 3,070 3,055 3,053 3,060 3,028 3,026 3,016 3,020 3,085 3,143 3,226 3,272 3,320 3,369 6 100.68% 489 462 551 493 572 538 520 527 503 513 533 511 527 519 467 481 464 509 517 524 7 100.20% 490 489 482 555 490 553 542 520 547 502 514 534 512 528 520 468 482 465 510 518 8101.76%493 489 502 488 564 483 576 550 540 551 511 523 543 521 537 529 476 490 473 519 6-8 Total1,472 1,440 1,535 1,536 1,626 1,574 1,638 1,597 1,590 1,566 1,557 1,568 1,582 1,568 1,524 1,478 1,422 1,464 1,500 1,561 PreK-8 Total 4,509 4,624 4,720 4,771 4,851 4,466 4,708 4,652 4,643 4,626 4,586 4,594 4,598 4,588 4,609 4,621 4,648 4,736 4,820 4,930 9 129.82% 526 590 585 605 601 703 666 727 726 693 715 663 679 705 676 697 687 618 636 614 10 98.94% 537 526 565 554 586 595 694 646 718 735 686 708 656 672 698 669 690 680 611 629 11 97.91% 496 512 501 550 544 571 602 658 638 699 720 671 693 642 658 683 655 676 666 598 1299.13%437 490 517 515 529 529 547 599 661 655 693 713 665 687 636 652 677 649 670 660 9-12 Total 1,996 2,118 2,168 2,224 2,260 2,398 2,509 2,630 2,743 2,782 2,814 2,755 2,693 2,706 2,668 2,701 2,709 2,623 2,583 2,501 PreK-12 Total6,505 6,742 6,888 6,995 7,111 6,864 7,217 7,282 7,386 7,408 7,399 7,349 7,291 7,294 7,277 7,322 7,357 7,359 7,403 7,431 # Change 6,505 237 146 107 116 (247) 353 65 104 22 (9) (50) (58) 3 (17) 45 35 2 44 28 % Change 3.35% 3.64% 2.17% 1.55% 1.66% -3.47% 5.14% 0.90% 1.43% 0.30% -0.12% -0.68% -0.79% 0.04% -0.23% 0.62% 0.48% 0.03% 0.60% 0.38% Avg. CSR 102.56%Bozeman Public SchoolsEnrollment ProjectionsCohort Survival Calculated over 5 YearsOctober 1,Projected Enrollment GradeCSR2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320344-yr old K - - 21 31 36 29 40 31 35 39 38 72 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 5-yr old K 101.50% 520 504 521 497 504 547 421 517 491 444 463 446490497 504 512 520 528 536 544 552 1 102.23% 521 525 531 544 509 505 483 488 520 497 457 473 456 501 508 515 523 532 540 548 556 2 100.44% 463 528 542 521 545 510 465 503 488 534 509 459 475 458 503 510 517 525 534 542 550 3 102.17% 513 484 546 538 539 552 478 509 523 507 527 520 469 485 468 514 521 528 536 546 554 4 99.69% 445 532 483 557 550 523 510 489 503 520 503 525 518 468 484 467 512 519 526 534 544 5 100.53% 484 443 530 492 559 548 504 529 491 513 529 506 528 521 470 487 469 515 522 529 537 PreK-5 Total 2,946 3,037 3,184 3,185 3,235 3,225 2,892 3,070 3,055 3,053 3,060 3,037 3,044 3,038 3,045 3,113 3,170 3,255 3,302 3,351 3,401 6 101.52% 469 489 462 551 493 572 538 520 527 503 513 537 514 536 529 477 494 476 523 530 537 7 100.99% 493 490 489 482 555 490 553 542 520 547 502 518 542 519 541 534 482 499 481 528 535 8 101.41% 413 493 489 502 488 564 483 576 550 540 551 509 525 550 526 549 542 489 506 488 535 6-8 Total 1,375 1,472 1,440 1,535 1,536 1,626 1,574 1,638 1,597 1,590 1,566 1,564 1,581 1,605 1,596 1,560 1,518 1,464 1,510 1,546 1,607 PreK-8 Total 4,321 4,509 4,624 4,720 4,771 4,851 4,466 4,708 4,652 4,643 4,626 4,601 4,625 4,643 4,641 4,673 4,688 4,719 4,812 4,897 5,008 9 125.94% 543 526 590 585 605 601 703 666 727 726 693 694 641 661 693 662 691 683 616 637 615 10 98.09% 522 537 526 565 554 586 595 694 646 718 735 680 681 629 648 680 649 678 670 604 625 11 97.07% 449 496 512 501 550 544 571 602 658 638 699 713 660 661 611 629 660 630 658 650 586 12 99.17% 459 437 490 517 515 529 529 547 599 661 655 693 707 655 656 606 624 655 625 653 645 9-12 Total 1,973 1,996 2,118 2,168 2,224 2,260 2,398 2,509 2,630 2,743 2,782 2,780 2,689 2,606 2,608 2,577 2,624 2,646 2,569 2,544 2,471 PreK-12 Total 6,294 6,505 6,742 6,888 6,995 7,111 6,864 7,217 7,282 7,386 7,408 7,381 7,314 7,249 7,249 7,250 7,312 7,365 7,381 7,441 7,479 # Change 108 211 237 146 107 116 (247) 353 65 104 22 (27) (67) (65) - 1 62 53 16 60 38 % Change 1.75% 3.35% 3.64% 2.17% 1.55% 1.66% -3.47% 5.14% 0.90% 1.43% 0.30% -0.36% -0.91% -0.89% 0.00% 0.01% 0.86% 0.72% 0.22% 0.81% 0.51% Avg. CSR 102.37%Bozeman Public SchoolsEnrollment ProjectionsCohort Survival Calculated over 10 YearsOctober 1,Projected Enrollment