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HomeMy WebLinkAboutNational Vital Statistics Reports Volume 74, Number 3, March 6, 2025National VitalStatistics Reports Volume 74, Number 3 March 6, 2025 Effects of Age-specific Fertility Trends on Overall Fertility Trends: United States, 1990–2023 by Anne K. Driscoll, Ph.D., and Brady E. Hamilton, Ph.D. Abstract Objectives—This report examines the role of age-specific trends in fertility rates in the decline in the number of births and of general fertility rates (GFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs). Methods—Data are from the National Center for Health Statistics’ National Vital Statistics System birth data files from 1990 through 2023. To estimate the role of changes in age- specific fertility rates on total births, GFRs, and TFRs from 1990 through 2023, 1990 rates for each maternal age category were kept constant and applied to all subsequent years to produce adjusted totals and rates. Results—The actual number of U.S. births declined 14% from 1990 to 2023, the GFR declined 23%, and the TFR declined 22%. Due to declines in birth rates among females younger than age 30, holding their 1990 birth rates constant resulted in higher adjusted GFRs, TFRs, and number of births in 2023 than the actual rates and numbers. Due to increases in birth rates to women age 30 and older, holding their 1990 birth rates constant would have led to lower adjusted GFRs, TFRs, and number of births in 2023 than the actual rates and numbers. The magnitude of the decrease in birth rates among females younger than 30 was greater than the magnitude of the increase in rates among women 30 and older, resulting in declining overall fertility rates. These age-specific changes in birth rates resulted in changing maternal age distributions—in 1990, females younger than 30 accounted for 7 in 10 births (69.8%), while in 2023, they accounted for less than 1 in 2 (48.6%). Summary—The decline in fertility rates over the past few decades results from declining rates among females younger than 30 coupled with smaller increases in rates among older women. Keywords: maternal age • general fertility rate • total fertility rate • birth rate • replacement level • National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) Introduction Births and fertility rates have been declining in the United States over recent decades. Since 1990, the U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) declined from about the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman—the fertility level needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next—to 1.62 births per woman in 2023 (1–3). This trend, like fertility trends in other industrialized countries, has prompted discussion about both the reasons for the decline and the challenges it poses to the U.S. economy and society (4,5). This report examines the role of changes in age-specific fertility rates in the decline of overall fertility rates. Methods Data for this analysis are from the National Center for Health Statistics’ National Vital Statistics System birth data files from 1990, the most recent peak for general fertility rates (GFRs) and TFRs, through 2023 (6). Birth certificate data are based on 100% of births registered in the 50 states and the District of Columbia (3). Populations used to calculate fertility rates are based on counts enumerated as of April 1 for census years 1990, 2000, and 2010, and estimated as of April 1, 2020, and July 1 for all other years (3,7). Several measures of birth trends were calculated for 1990– 2023. First, numbers of births, both overall and by maternal age and the percent distributions of births by maternal age, are presented from 1990 through 2023. Second, GFRs (the number of births in a given year divided by the number of females ages 15–44) are presented. Third, age-specific birth rates, which are computed by dividing the number of births to women in 5-year age groups in a given year by the number of women in that age group, are presented. Finally, TFRs for a given year (the average number of children expected to be born to a woman over her lifetime if she was to experience the same age-specific birth rates for that year) are presented. TFRs are the sum of NCHS reports can be downloaded from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/index.htm. 2 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 6, 2025 age-specific fertility rates multiplied by five, the number of years in the age group. For the number of births, GFRs and TFRs, both actual (unadjusted) and adjusted numbers and rates are presented for each maternal 5-year age group. To estimate the role of changes in birth rates in each age category on total births, GFRs, and TFRs, 1990 age-specific birth rates were applied to all subsequent years to produce a set of adjusted totals and rates for each year. For example, the adjusted GFR testing the effect of changing birth rates for women ages 20–24 applied the 1990 birth rate for this age group to the population of the age group for each subsequent year. The resulting adjusted number of births for the age group was incorporated into the calculation of the adjusted GFR. Similarly, a set of adjusted TFRs was calculated for each year by replacing the current age-specific birth rate for a given age group with the 1990 rate and calculating the resulting TFR. Results Trends in number of actual births The total number of U.S. births declined 14% from 1990 to 2023 (from 4,158,212 to 3,596,017) (Table 1, Figure 1). During this period, births to females younger than age 30 declined, while those to women 30 and older increased. Births to females younger than 20 declined 73% from 1990 to 2023, the steepest percentage decline of all age groups, equal to 390,740 fewer births. Women ages 20–24 had 476,760 fewer births in 2023 than in 1990, a 44% decline, while those ages 25–29 had 290,541 fewer births, a 23% decline. The number of births increased for women age 30 and older. Women ages 30–34 had 211,989 more births in 2023 than those in 1990, a 24% increase. Women ages 35–39 had 287,048 more births in 2023 than in 1990, a 90% increase, while those age 40 and older had 96,809 more births in 2023 in 1990, a 193% increase. As a result of these changes, teen births declined from 1 in 8 births in 1990 (12.8%) to 1 in 25 births in 2023 (4.0%) (Table 1, Figure 2). Women ages 20–24 accounted for 26.3% of births in 1990 and 17.2% in 2023. Women ages 25–29 accounted for 30.7% in 1990 and 27.4% in 2023. The percentage of births to women ages 30–34 increased from 21.3% to 30.5%, the percentage of births to women ages 35–39 more than doubled from 7.6% to 16.8%, and births to women age 40 and older increased from 1.2% to 4.1% in 2023. In 1990, women 30 and older accounted for 3 in 10 births (30.2%); in 2023, they accounted for just over one-half (51.4%). Trends in actual age-specific fertility rates Birth rates for females ages 10–14 declined from 1.4 births per 1,000 females in 1990 to 0.2 in 2023; for females ages 15–19, the rate declined 78% from 59.9 to 13.1 (Table 2). Figure 1. Number of births, by maternal age group: United States, 1990–2023 SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System, natality data file.Number of births (millions)0 1 2 3 4 5 20232020201520102005200019951990 Younger than 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and older National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 6, 2025 3 Age-specific birth rates also declined for women ages 20–24 and 25–29, who had the highest age-specific birth rates in 1990 (116.5 and 120.2, respectively). The rate declined 51% for women ages 20–24 to 57.7 in 2023, and 24% for ages 25–29 to 91.0 in 2023. Conversely, rates increased for all older age groups from 1990 to 2023. The rate for women ages 30–34 increased 17% from 80.8 to 94.3, the highest age-specific rates in 2023. The rate for women ages 35–39 increased 71% from 31.7 to 54.3. The rates for women ages 40–44 and 45 and older increased from 5.5 to 12.5 (127% increase) and from 0.2 to 1.1 (450% increase), respectively, in 2023. As a result of these overall changes in age-specific birth rates, the general fertility rate fell from 70.9 in 1990 to 54.5 in 2023, a 23% decline. Trends in adjusted GFRs As previously noted, the actual GFR declined 23% from 1990 to 2023 (Table 3, Figure 3). When 1990 birth rates for females younger than age 30 were held constant, adjusted GFRs fell less than the actual GFR. If the 1990 birth rate was held constant for teenagers and for women ages 20–24 and 25–29, the adjusted 2023 GFRs (62.3, 64.0, and 59.3, respectively) would have been 9% to 17% higher than the actual GFR of 54.5. Conversely, when 1990 birth rates for women age 30 and older were held constant, adjusted GFRs declined more than the actual GFR. If 1990 birth rates for women ages 30–34, 35–39, and 40 and older were held constant, the adjusted 2023 GFRs (52.1, 50.7, and 53.2, respectively) would have been 2% to 7% lower than the actual 2023 GFR. Trends in adjusted TFRs In 1990, the actual total fertility rate was 2.08, slightly below the replacement level of 2.10. The rate declined 22% to 1.62 in 2023, further below replacement level (Table 4, Figure 4). When the birth rates of females younger than age 30 were held constant at 1990 levels, adjusted 2023 TFRs were higher than the actual TFR. Holding 1990 birth rates constant for females younger than 20 and for women ages 20–24 and 25–29 resulted in adjusted 2023 TFRs of 1.86, 1.91, and 1.77, respectively, 9% to 18% higher compared with the actual 2023 TFR of 1.62. Conversely, when the birth rates of women age 30 and older were held constant at 1990 levels, the 2023 adjusted TFRs were lower than the actual TFR. Holding 1990 birth rates constant for women ages 30–34, 35–39, and 40 and older resulted in adjusted 2023 TFRs of 1.55, 1.51, and 1.58, respectively, or 2% to 7% lower than the actual 2023 TFR. Trends in adjusted number of births The United States recorded 562,195 fewer total births in 2023 than in 1990 (Tables 1 and 5). Applying the 1990 birth rates of females younger than age 30 to all subsequent years would Figure 2. Percentage of births, by maternal age group: United States, 1990–2023 SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System, natality data file.Percent0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 20232020201520102005200019951990 40 and older 35–39 30–34 25–29 20–24 Younger than 20 4 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 6, 2025 have resulted in more births in 2023 than actually occurred. If 1990 birth rates for teenagers and for women ages 20–24 and 25–29 were applied to all subsequent years, the result would have been 517,143, 627,758, and 316,697 more births, respectively, in 2023. Conversely, holding the 1990 birth rates of women age 30 and older constant would have resulted in fewer births in 2023 than actually occurred. If 1990 rates for women ages 30–34 and 35–39 were applied to all subsequent years, the result would have been 157,470 and 251,412 fewer total births, respectively, in 2023. If the 1990 rate for women age 40 and older was applied, the result would have been 85,195 fewer births in 2023. Summary The total number of births in the United States declined 14% from 1990 to 2023. During the same period, the GFR declined 23% and the TFR declined 22%. Declining birth rates of females younger than age 30 drove the decline in overall fertility rates and number of births, while rising rates for women 30 and older only partially compensated for the decline in fertility rates of younger women. Because the declines in birth rates of younger women, who account for the majority of births, outweighed the increases in rates of women age 30 and older, the overall GFR, TFR, and number of births declined. If birth rates for females younger than 30 had not declined from their 1990 levels, GFRs, TFRs, and the number of births in 2023 would have been higher. Conversely, if birth rates for women 30 and older had not risen from their 1990 levels, the result would have been 85,000 to 251,000 fewer births in 2023 as well as lower GFRs and TFRs. The trends for younger and older women also resulted in a shift in the age distribution of women giving birth over the study period. In 1990, 7 in 10 births were to females younger than 30 (69.8%), 4 in 10 were to females younger than 25 (39.1%), and 1 in 8 were to females younger than 20 (12.8%). By 2023, females younger than 30 accounted for fewer than 1 in 2 births (48.6%), females younger than 25 accounted for 1 in 5 (21.2%), and females younger than 20 accounted for 1 in 20 (4.0%). To illustrate the effect of trends in age-specific rates on overall fertility trends, note that these analyses rely on the creation of hypothetical fertility trends. In particular, holding the birth rates of younger women constant does not account for how a birth, or its absence, might affect subsequent fertility at older ages. Delay in the timing of a birth results in a mix of postponed and foregone fertility. In some cases, women shift their childbearing to older ages, increasing births and fertility rates for older women without resulting in a difference in final total fertility. In other cases, births that would have occurred during earlier years of women’s lives do not occur in later years, resulting in lower final fertility. NOTE: Adjusted general fertility rates apply 1990 fertility rates for the specified age group to populations in subsequent years.SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System, natality data file.General fertility rate0 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 20232020201520102005200019951990 Younger than 20 20–24 25–29 35–39 30–34 40 and older Actual general fertility rate Figure 3. Actual and adjusted general fertility rates: United States, 1990–2023 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 6, 2025 5 Figure 4. Actual and adjusted total fertility rates: United States, 1990–2023 NOTE: Adjusted total fertility rates apply 1990 fertility rates for the specified age group to populations in subsequent years. SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System, natality data file.Total fertility rateReplacement fertility rate 0 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 20232020201520102005200019951990 25–29 40 and older Actual general fertility rate 20–24 Youngerthan 20 35–39 30–34 In summary, the decline in fertility rates over the past few decades results from declining rates among females younger than 30 that are offset somewhat by smaller increases in rates among older women. References 1. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World population policies 2021: Policies related to fertility. UN DESA/POP/2021/TR/NO.1. 2021. 2. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital statistics of the United States, 1990, vol 1, natality. 1994. 3. Osterman MJK, Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Driscoll AK, Valenzuela CP. Births: Final data for 2023. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 74, no 1. 2025 [Forthcoming]. 4. Kearney MS, Levine PB, Pardue LW. The puzzle of falling US birth rates since the Great Recession. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 29286. 2021. 5. Reznik GL, Shoffner D, Weaver DA. Coping with the demographic challenge: Fewer children and living longer. Social Security Bulletin; vol 66 no 4. 2007. Available from: https://www.ssa.gov/ policy/docs/ssb/v66n4/v66n4p37.html. 6. Osterman MJK, Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Driscoll AK, Valenzuela CP. Births: Final data for 2022. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 73, no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2024. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc:145588. 7. National Center for Health Statistics. User guide to the 2022 natality public use file. Available from: https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/ Health_Statistics/NCHS/Dataset_Documentation/DVS/natality/ UserGuide2022.pdf. List of Detailed Tables 1. Number and percentage of births, by maternal age: United States, 1990–2023 .......................... 6 2. General and age-specific birth rates: United States, 1990–2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 3. Actual and adjusted general fertility rates: United States, 1990–2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 4. Actual and adjusted total fertility rates: United States, 1990–2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 5. Actual and adjusted number of births: United States, 1990–2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 6 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 6, 2025 Table 1. Number and percentage of births, by maternal age: United States, 1990–2023 Year Number of births Percent distribution Total Younger than 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and older Younger than 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and older 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,158,212 533,483 1,093,730 1,277,108 886,063 317,583 50,245 12.8 26.3 30.7 21.3 7.6 1.21991. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,110,907 531,591 1,089,692 1,219,965 884,862 330,993 53,804 12.9 26.5 29.7 21.5 8.1 1.3 1992. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,065,014 517,635 1,070,490 1,179,264 895,271 344,644 57,710 12.7 26.3 29.0 22.0 8.5 1.4 1993. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,000,240 513,647 1,038,127 1,128,862 901,151 357,053 61,400 12.8 26.0 28.2 22.5 8.9 1.5 1994. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,952,767 518,389 1,001,418 1,088,845 906,498 371,608 66,009 13.1 25.3 27.5 22.9 9.4 1.71995. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,899,589 512,115 965,547 1,063,539 904,666 383,745 69,977 13.1 24.8 27.3 23.2 9.8 1.8 1996. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,891,494 502,725 945,210 1,071,287 897,913 399,510 74,849 12.9 24.3 27.5 23.1 10.3 1.9 1997. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,880,894 493,341 942,048 1,069,436 886,798 409,710 79,561 12.7 24.3 27.6 22.9 10.6 2.1 1998. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,941,553 494,357 965,122 1,083,010 889,365 424,890 84,809 12.5 24.5 27.5 22.6 10.8 2.21999. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,959,417 485,104 981,929 1,078,252 892,400 434,294 87,438 12.3 24.8 27.2 22.5 11.0 2.2 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,058,814 477,509 1,017,806 1,087,547 929,278 452,057 94,617 11.8 25.1 26.8 22.9 11.1 2.3 2001. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,025,933 453,725 1,021,627 1,058,265 942,697 451,723 97,896 11.3 25.4 26.3 23.4 11.2 2.4 2002. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,021,726 432,808 1,022,106 1,060,391 951,219 453,927 101,275 10.8 25.4 26.4 23.7 11.3 2.52003. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,089,950 421,241 1,032,305 1,086,366 975,546 467,642 106,850 10.3 25.2 26.6 23.9 11.4 2.6 2004. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,112,052 422,043 1,034,454 1,104,485 965,663 475,606 109,801 10.3 25.2 26.9 23.5 11.6 2.7 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,138,349 421,315 1,040,388 1,131,596 950,691 483,156 111,203 10.2 25.1 27.3 23.0 11.7 2.7 2006. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,265,555 441,832 1,080,437 1,181,899 950,258 498,616 112,513 10.4 25.3 27.7 22.3 11.7 2.62007. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,316,233 451,094 1,082,354 1,208,408 961,931 499,914 112,532 10.5 25.1 28.0 22.3 11.6 2.6 2008. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,247,694 440,522 1,052,184 1,195,774 956,716 488,875 113,623 10.4 24.8 28.2 22.5 11.5 2.7 2009. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,130,665 414,831 1,005,982 1,166,787 955,246 474,103 113,716 10.0 24.4 28.2 23.1 11.5 2.8 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,999,386 372,175 951,688 1,133,713 962,170 464,870 114,770 9.3 23.8 28.3 24.1 11.6 2.92011. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,953,590 333,746 925,200 1,127,583 986,682 463,849 116,530 8.4 23.4 28.5 25.0 11.7 2.9 2012. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,952,841 309,060 916,811 1,123,900 1,013,416 472,318 117,336 7.8 23.2 28.4 25.6 11.9 3.0 2013. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,932,181 276,203 896,745 1,120,777 1,036,927 483,873 117,656 7.0 22.8 28.5 26.4 12.3 3.0 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,988,076 251,847 882,567 1,145,392 1,081,058 508,748 118,464 6.3 22.1 28.7 27.1 12.8 3.0 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,978,497 232,215 850,509 1,152,311 1,094,693 527,996 120,773 5.8 21.4 29.0 27.5 13.3 3.0 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,945,875 212,062 803,978 1,149,122 1,111,042 547,488 122,183 5.4 20.4 29.1 28.2 13.9 3.1 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,855,500 196,294 764,780 1,123,577 1,091,917 554,796 124,136 5.1 19.8 29.1 28.3 14.4 3.2 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,791,712 181,607 726,175 1,099,491 1,090,697 566,786 126,956 4.8 19.2 29.0 28.8 14.9 3.3 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,747,540 173,461 704,342 1,078,097 1,089,281 572,598 129,761 4.6 18.8 28.8 29.1 15.3 3.5 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,613,647 159,808 665,595 1,024,402 1,069,984 564,059 129,799 4.4 18.4 28.3 29.6 15.6 3.6 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,664,292 148,850 648,484 1,023,989 1,115,055 592,179 135,735 4.1 17.7 27.9 30.4 16.2 3.7 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,667,758 145,614 638,685 1,013,417 1,118,787 606,598 144,657 4.0 17.4 27.6 30.5 16.5 3.9 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,596,017 142,743 616,970 986,567 1,098,052 604,631 147,054 4.0 17.2 27.4 30.5 16.8 4.1 Change from 1990 to 2023 . . . . . . . . -562,195 -390,740 -476,760 -290,541 211,989 287,048 96,809 … … … … … … Percent change from 1990 to 2023 -14 -73 -44 -23 24 90 193 … … … … … … … Category not applicable. SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System, natality data file. National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 6, 2025 7 Table 2. General and age-specific birth rates: United States, 1990–2023 Year General fertility rate Age-specific birth rate 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45 and older 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.9 1.4 59.9 116.5 120.2 80.8 31.7 5.5 0.21991. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.3 1.4 61.8 115.3 117.2 79.2 31.9 5.5 0.2 1992. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68.4 1.4 60.3 113.7 115.7 79.6 32.3 5.9 0.3 1993. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.0 1.4 59.0 111.3 113.2 79.9 32.7 6.1 0.3 1994. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.9 1.4 58.2 109.2 111.0 80.4 33.4 6.4 0.31995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64.6 1.3 56.0 107.5 108.8 81.1 34.0 6.6 0.3 1996. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64.1 1.2 53.5 107.8 108.6 82.1 34.9 6.8 0.3 1997. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.6 1.1 51.3 107.3 108.3 83.0 35.7 7.1 0.4 1998. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64.3 1.0 50.3 108.4 110.2 85.2 36.9 7.4 0.41999. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64.4 0.9 48.8 107.9 111.2 87.1 37.8 7.4 0.4 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.9 0.9 47.7 109.7 113.5 91.2 39.7 8.0 0.5 2001. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.1 0.8 45.0 105.6 113.8 91.8 40.5 8.1 0.5 2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.0 0.7 42.6 103.1 114.7 92.6 41.6 8.3 0.52003. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.1 0.6 41.1 102.3 116.7 95.7 43.9 8.7 0.5 2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.4 0.6 40.5 101.5 116.5 96.2 45.5 9.0 0.5 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.7 0.6 39.7 101.8 116.5 96.7 46.4 9.1 0.6 2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68.6 0.6 41.1 105.5 118.0 98.9 47.5 9.4 0.62007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.3 0.6 41.5 105.4 118.1 100.6 47.6 9.6 0.6 2008. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68.1 0.6 40.2 101.8 115.0 99.4 46.8 9.9 0.7 2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.2 0.5 37.9 96.2 111.5 97.5 46.1 10.0 0.7 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64.1 0.4 34.2 90.0 108.3 96.5 45.9 10.2 0.72011. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.2 0.4 31.3 85.3 107.2 96.5 47.2 10.3 0.7 2012. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.0 0.4 29.4 83.1 106.5 97.3 48.3 10.4 0.7 2013. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62.5 0.3 26.5 80.7 105.5 98.0 49.3 10.4 0.8 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62.9 0.3 24.2 79.0 105.8 100.8 51.0 10.6 0.8 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62.5 0.2 22.3 76.8 104.3 101.5 51.8 11.0 0.8 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62.0 0.2 20.3 73.8 102.1 102.7 52.7 11.4 0.9 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60.3 0.2 18.8 71.0 98.0 100.3 52.3 11.6 0.9 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.1 0.2 17.4 68.0 95.3 99.7 52.6 11.8 0.9 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58.3 0.2 16.7 66.6 93.7 98.3 52.8 12.0 0.9 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.7 0.2 15.0 63.3 90.9 94.9 51.3 11.8 0.9 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56.3 0.2 13.9 61.5 93.0 97.6 53.7 12.0 0.9 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56.0 0.2 13.6 57.5 93.5 97.5 55.3 12.6 1.1 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.5 0.2 13.1 57.7 91.0 94.3 54.3 12.5 1.1 Change from 1990 to 2023 . . . . . . . . . . -16.4 -1.2 -46.8 -58.8 -29.2 13.5 22.6 7.0 0.9 Percent change from 1990 to 2023 . . . . . . -23 -86 -78 -51 -24 17 71 127 450 NOTES: The general fertility rate is the number of births per 1,000 females ages 15–44. The age-specific birth rate is the number of births per 1,000 females in a given age group. SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System, natality data file. 8 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 6, 2025 Table 3. Actual and adjusted general fertility rates: United States, 1990–2023 Year Actual GFR Adjusted GFR1 Younger than 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and older 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70.9 70.9 70.9 70.9 70.9 70.9 70.91991. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69.3 69.1 69.5 69.8 69.6 69.3 69.3 1992. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68.4 68.4 68.9 69.2 68.6 68.3 68.4 1993. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67.0 67.1 67.8 68.2 67.2 66.8 66.9 1994. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65.9 66.1 67.0 67.4 65.9 65.5 65.71995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64.6 65.2 65.9 66.4 64.5 64.2 64.4 1996. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64.1 65.1 65.4 66.0 63.9 63.5 63.9 1997. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63.6 65.0 64.9 65.5 63.2 62.8 63.3 1998. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64.3 65.8 65.4 65.9 63.5 63.3 63.91999. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64.4 66.3 65.7 65.8 63.4 63.3 64.0 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65.9 67.9 66.9 67.0 64.2 64.4 65.4 2001. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65.1 67.6 66.9 66.1 63.3 63.6 64.6 2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65.0 67.9 67.2 65.8 63.1 63.3 64.42003. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66.1 69.3 68.4 66.6 63.6 64.0 65.4 2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66.4 69.7 68.8 66.9 63.9 64.0 65.6 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66.7 70.2 69.1 67.2 64.2 64.2 65.9 2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68.6 71.9 70.4 68.9 65.8 65.9 67.82007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69.3 72.6 71.1 69.6 66.2 66.6 68.5 2008. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68.1 71.7 70.6 69.0 65.2 65.6 67.3 2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66.2 70.2 69.6 67.7 63.6 63.9 65.4 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64.1 68.7 68.6 66.1 61.6 61.8 63.62011. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63.2 68.2 68.6 65.4 60.7 60.8 62.3 2012. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63.0 68.2 68.9 65.3 60.3 60.4 62.1 2013. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62.5 68.1 68.8 65.0 59.6 59.7 61.6 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62.9 68.9 69.6 65.4 59.6 59.9 62.0 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62.5 68.8 69.5 65.3 59.0 59.3 61.6 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62.0 68.6 69.3 65.2 58.3 58.6 61.0 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60.3 67.1 67.9 64.3 57.0 56.9 59.2 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59.1 66.1 67.1 63.6 55.9 55.6 58.0 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58.3 65.4 66.4 63.0 55.2 54.7 57.1 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55.7 63.3 64.7 61.3 53.5 52.6 54.9 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56.3 63.9 65.2 60.9 53.4 52.6 55.1 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56.0 63.6 66.0 60.4 53.0 52.0 54.7 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54.5 62.3 64.0 59.3 52.1 50.7 53.2 Change from 1990 to 2023 . . . .-16.4 -8.6 -6.9 -11.6 -18.8 -20.2 -17.7 Percent change from1990 to 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-23 0 -10 0 -27 -29 -25Difference from 2023 actual GFR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .…7.8 9.5 4.8 -2.4 -3.8 -1.3 Percent difference from 2023 actual GFR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .…14 17 9 -4 -7 -2 … Category not applicable.1Adjusted rates apply 1990 fertility rates of the specified age group to the population in subsequent years. NOTE: GFR is general fertility rate, which is the number of births per 1,000 females ages 15–44. SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System, natality data file. National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 6, 2025 9 Table 4. Actual and adjusted total fertility rates: United States, 1990–2023 Year Actual TFR Adjusted TFR1 Younger than 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and older 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.081991. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.06 2.05 2.07 2.08 2.07 2.06 2.06 1992. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.05 2.04 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.04 2.04 1993. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02 2.02 2.05 2.05 2.02 2.01 2.02 1994. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.00 2.01 2.04 2.05 2.00 1.99 2.001995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.98 2.00 2.02 2.03 1.98 1.97 1.97 1996. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.98 2.01 2.02 2.03 1.97 1.96 1.97 1997. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.97 2.02 2.02 2.03 1.96 1.95 1.96 1998. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.00 2.05 2.04 2.05 1.98 1.97 1.991999. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.01 2.07 2.05 2.05 1.98 1.98 2.00 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.06 2.12 2.09 2.09 2.00 2.02 2.04 2001. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.03 2.11 2.09 2.07 1.98 1.99 2.02 2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02 2.11 2.08 2.05 1.96 1.96 2.002003. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.05 2.15 2.11 2.07 1.97 1.98 2.03 2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.05 2.15 2.12 2.07 1.97 1.98 2.03 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.06 2.16 2.12 2.08 1.98 1.98 2.03 2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.11 2.21 2.15 2.12 2.02 2.02 2.082007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12 2.22 2.17 2.14 2.03 2.04 2.10 2008. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.07 2.17 2.15 2.11 1.99 2.01 2.06 2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.00 2.12 2.11 2.06 1.92 1.93 1.98 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.93 2.06 2.06 1.99 1.85 1.86 1.912011. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.89 2.04 2.05 1.96 1.82 1.82 1.87 2012. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.88 2.04 2.05 1.95 1.80 1.80 1.85 2013. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.86 2.03 2.04 1.93 1.77 1.77 1.83 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.86 2.05 2.05 1.93 1.76 1.77 1.83 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.84 2.04 2.04 1.92 1.74 1.74 1.81 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82 2.02 2.03 1.91 1.71 1.72 1.79 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.77 1.98 1.99 1.88 1.67 1.66 1.73 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.73 1.95 1.97 1.85 1.64 1.63 1.69 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.71 1.93 1.96 1.84 1.62 1.60 1.67 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.64 1.87 1.91 1.79 1.57 1.54 1.61 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.66 1.90 1.94 1.80 1.58 1.55 1.63 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.66 1.89 1.95 1.79 1.57 1.54 1.62 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.62 1.86 1.91 1.77 1.55 1.51 1.58 Change from 1990 to 2023 . . . .-0.46 -0.22 -0.17 -0.31 -0.53 -0.57 -0.50 Percent change from 1990 to 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-22 -11 -8 -15 -25 -27 -24Difference from actual 2023 TFR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .… 0.24 0.29 0.15 -0.07 -0.11 -0.04 Percent difference from actual 2023 TFR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .…15 18 9 -4 -7 -2 … Category not applicable.1Adjusted rates apply 1990 fertility rates of the specified age group to the population in subsequent years. NOTE: TFR is total fertility rate, which is the average number of children expected to be born to women over their lifetimes. SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System, natality data file. 10 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 6, 2025 Table 5. Actual and adjusted number of births: United States, 1990–2023 Year Actual births Adjusted number of births1 Younger than 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and older 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,158,212 4,158,212 4,158,212 4,158,212 4,158,212 4,158,212 4,158,2121991. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,110,907 4,095,036 4,122,317 4,142,389 4,128,897 4,108,603 4,110,775 1992. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,065,014 4,062,311 4,091,555 4,110,668 4,078,582 4,058,260 4,061,204 1993. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,000,240 4,008,292 4,048,798 4,070,149 4,010,533 3,989,405 3,993,894 1994. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,952,767 3,967,823 4,019,394 4,042,730 3,957,120 3,933,660 3,943,2671995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,899,589 3,935,442 3,980,903 4,010,717 3,896,513 3,873,803 3,887,669 1996. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,891,494 3,952,710 3,968,031 4,005,961 3,877,498 3,854,442 3,876,302 1997. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,880,894 3,965,501 3,961,824 3,998,920 3,857,826 3,835,417 3,862,504 1998. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,941,553 4,038,225 4,013,423 4,039,791 3,895,672 3,881,194 3,919,2841999. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,959,417 4,072,829 4,037,477 4,046,620 3,895,146 3,888,854 3,935,552 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,058,814 4,184,066 4,121,684 4,123,093 3,952,776 3,967,756 4,028,458 2001. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,025,933 4,180,075 4,131,671 4,085,902 3,912,562 3,927,396 3,993,393 2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,021,726 4,201,353 4,154,863 4,073,015 3,900,339 3,913,438 3,986,0562003. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,089,950 4,287,517 4,233,564 4,122,298 3,938,064 3,960,233 4,048,810 2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,112,052 4,318,173 4,264,808 4,146,952 3,957,714 3,967,816 4,068,081 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,138,349 4,356,566 4,288,918 4,174,201 3,982,338 3,985,241 4,092,413 2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,265,555 4,472,868 4,377,936 4,287,390 4,091,940 4,099,455 4,217,1532007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,316,233 4,522,184 4,430,353 4,337,382 4,126,696 4,149,259 4,266,505 2008. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,247,694 4,468,552 4,400,069 4,301,223 4,068,749 4,089,698 4,195,551 2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,130,665 4,377,152 4,343,205 4,221,996 3,967,304 3,982,824 4,077,286 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,999,386 4,284,474 4,279,315 4,123,717 3,842,436 3,855,879 3,966,6492011. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,953,590 4,264,462 4,291,382 4,090,304 3,793,335 3,801,447 3,897,444 2012. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,952,841 4,280,754 4,321,462 4,097,464 3,781,126 3,790,346 3,895,842 2013. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,932,181 4,287,850 4,330,505 4,087,966 3,750,342 3,759,554 3,874,356 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,988,076 4,366,386 4,407,134 4,144,035 3,773,173 3,795,752 3,928,767 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,978,497 4,378,056 4,417,813 4,154,655 3,755,305 3,773,878 3,915,846 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,945,875 4,366,609 4,410,578 4,150,134 3,708,935 3,727,987 3,880,366 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,855,500 4,292,286 4,345,366 4,110,404 3,642,936 3,637,232 3,787,878 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,791,712 4,242,721 4,308,829 4,079,680 3,585,302 3,566,443 3,721,396 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,747,540 4,205,838 4,274,392 4,052,277 3,553,256 3,518,969 3,674,921 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,613,647 4,083,016 4,178,514 3,954,250 3,454,210 3,394,824 3,541,965 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,664,292 4,161,533 4,244,971 3,964,116 3,472,646 3,421,938 3,588,347 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,667,758 4,168,577 4,322,665 3,957,360 3,475,853 3,408,771 3,583,409 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,596,017 4,113,160 4,223,775 3,912,714 3,438,547 3,344,605 3,510,822 Change from 1990 to 2023 . . . .-562,195 -45,052 65,563 -245,498 -719,665 -813,607 -647,390 Percent change from 1990 to 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-14 -1 2 -6 -17 -20 -16Difference from actual 2023 births . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .…517,143 627,758 316,697 -157,470 -251,412 -85,195 Percent difference from actual 2023 births . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .…14 18 9 -4 -7 -2 …Category not applicable. 1Adjusted birth numbers apply 1990 fertility rates for the specified age group to the population in subsequent years. SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System, natality data file. FIRST CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID CDC/NCHS PERMIT NO. G-284 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics 3311 Toledo Road, Room 4551, MS P08 Hyattsville, MD 20782–2064 OFFICIAL BUSINESS PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 6, 2025 For more NCHS NVSRs, visit: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/nvsr.htm. For e-mail updates on NCHS publication releases, subscribe online at: . For questions or general information about NCHS: Tel: 1–800–CDC–INFO (1–800–232–4636) • TTY: 1–888–232–6348 Internet: • Online request form: • CS321097 Suggested citation Driscoll AK, Hamilton BE. Effects of age- specific fertility trends on overall fertility trends: United States, 1990–2023. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 74 no 3. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2025. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc/174576. Contents Abstract .......................................................1Introduction ....................................................1Methods .......................................................1Results ........................................................2Trends in number of actual births .................................2Trends in actual age-specific fertility rates ...........................2Trends in adjusted GFRs .........................................3Trends in adjusted TFRs .........................................3Trends in adjusted number of births ...............................3Summary ......................................................4References .....................................................5List of Detailed Tables ............................................5 Copyright information All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated. National Center for Health Statistics Brian C. Moyer, Ph.D., Director Amy M. Branum, Ph.D., Associate Director for Science Division of Vital Statistics Paul D. Sutton, Ph.D., Director Andrés A. Berruti, Ph.D., M.A., Associate Director for Science https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/updates/ https://www.cdc.gov/nchs https://www.cdc.gov/info