HomeMy WebLinkAbout007 Oxbow PH2 Traffic Analysis
October 15, 2024
Mr. Adam Schlegel
Cushing Terrel
411 E Main St #101
Bozeman, MT 59715
Reference: Traffic Analysis – Cottonwood Subdivision, Phase 2
Project No. 24481
Dear Adam:
The purpose of this letter is to provide a response to comments received from the City
of Bozeman regarding Phase 2 of Cottonwood Subdivision located in Bozeman,
Montana. Traffic impacts for this development were previously evaluated in the
Cottonwood Subdivision TIS (February 2018) and the Cottonwood Subdivision TIS Update
(January 2021), completed by Marvin & Associates.
Future Traffic Projections Comparison
It was requested that future traffic projections in the original report be compared to
updated current volume data from MDT’s count station on Cottonwood Road, located
south of Alpha Drive. In the original TIS from 2018, Cottonwood Road was reported to
have an average weekday traffic volume of 4,950 vehicles south of Huffine Lane. With
these volumes, the study area intersections operated at LOS C or better, with minimal
queueing.
In the 2018 TIS, it was assumed that 155 apartment units and 42 townhouses would
be built in Phase 1 of Cottonwood Subdivision, and 184 apartments and 146
townhouses would be built in a future phase. Multifamily Housing (Low-Rise) – Land
Use 220 and Multifamily Housing (Mid-Rise) – Land Use 221 were used to calculate
trip projections for apartment units and townhouses, respectively. After pedestrian
and bicycle trip reductions were calculated, the trip generation analysis resulted in a
projected average weekday traffic of 3,394 vehicle trips generated from the
development.
An average annual growth rate of three percent was calculated in the 2018 study,
which was based on traffic projections from ten potential developments within the
study area that were considered based on discussions with City of Bozeman staff.
Existing traffic volumes from 2018 were combined with background growth and
weekday traffic generated from Cottonwood Subdivision, resulting in a 2033 weekday
traffic projection of 10,500 vehicles on Cottonwood Road south of Huffine Lane. The
Mr. Adam Schlegel
October 15, 2024
Page 2
northbound and southbound approaches at the Huffine Lane/Cottonwood Road
intersection were projected to operate at LOS D during the PM peak period in the
Future scenario (year 2033). All remaining intersections were projected to operate at
LOS C or better during both peak periods in the Future scenario (year 2033).
The Cottonwood Subdivision TIS update from 2021 assumed construction of 104
apartment units, a fitness center, a clubhouse, and a coffee shop in Phase 1, and 188
apartment units in a future phase (now Phase 2). Multifamily Housing (Low-Rise) –
Land Use 220, Health/Fitness Club – Land Use 492, Recreational Community Center –
Land Use 495, and Coffee/Donut Shop without Drive-Through – Land Use 936 were
used to calculate trip projections for the apartment units, fitness center, clubhouse,
and coffee shop, respectively. After pedestrian and bicycle trip reductions were
calculated, the trip generation analysis projected a total external trip generation of
2,591 average weekday vehicle trips for Phase 1 and Phase 2 combined.
Phase 1 of the development has been built, and the number of apartment units
planned for Phase 2 has decreased from 188 to 164 units. This 12.7 percent reduction
in apartment units will result in a lesser impact on traffic operations within the study
area. Phase 2 is now projected to generate 1,199 average weekday trips. Some
reductions due to internal capture and alternate modes of transportation may be
present, although they have not been accounted for in this analysis.
An analysis of historical MDT traffic data from MDT’s count station on Cottonwood
Road south of Huffine Lane (16-3A-019) showed a current AADT of 5,521 vehicles and
an average annual growth rate of 3.3 percent over the last five years. This growth rate
was applied to current traffic data and combined with the projected average weekday
traffic generated from the 164 units in Phase 2 of Cottonwood Subdivision to
calculate 2033 traffic volumes on Cottonwood Road. This calculation resulted in a
projected weekday traffic volume of 10,200 vehicles on Cottonwood Road south of
Huffine Lane.
This updated 2033 traffic volume projection assumes that all of Phase 1 was
constructed at the time of the most recent MDT traffic data on Cottonwood Road. The
value of 10,200 vehicles is less than the 2033 traffic volume on Cottonwood Road
projected in the original TIS of 10,500 vehicles. Therefore, study area intersections are
unlikely to operate at worse conditions than initially projected.
Mr. Adam Schlegel
October 15, 2024
Page 3
Pedestrian Access
Comments received from the City of Bozeman also requested an evaluation of
pedestrian crossings along Cottonwood Road at Alpha Drive, Garfield Street, and Loyal
Drive for potential safety enhancements. The MDT pedestrian crossing treatment
selection matrix and MUTCD pedestrian hybrid beacon (PHB), also commonly known
as a High intensity Activated crossWalK (HAWK), guidelines were therefore evaluated.
Marked crosswalks with refuge islands and advanced yield markings are currently
present at the Alpha Drive and Garfield Street intersections. There is no crosswalk at
the Loyal Drive intersection and the nearest crosswalk is located approximately 600-
feet north, at the Garfield Street intersection; therefore, a crosswalk should be
considered at Loyal Drive if a refuge island could be implemented to reduce the
crosswalk length and conflicting vehicular volume. However, the existing auxiliary
left-turn lanes make a refuge island unviable at the Loyal Drive intersection in its
current configuration. If a crosswalk were installed at this location, one of the left-
turn lanes should be removed and replaced with a refuge island.
For a crosswalk across a five-lane facility with a raised median, a speed limit of 45-
mph, and AADT between 8,000 and 11,000 vehicles, the MDT matrix recommends
consideration of an E-level treatment, which could include marked crosswalks with
enhancements such as traffic calming, refuge islands, advanced yield markings,
flashing beacons, or other high visibility treatments. The matrix also suggests the
consideration of curb extensions and raised crosswalks. However, curb extensions
and raised crosswalks are not recommended at this location due to the current
speed limit along the corridor. As the existing crossings at Garfield Street and Alphas
Drive currently provide a median refuge island, further treatments may not be
necessary, but installation of additional markings or a flashing beacon may further
improve safety. If daily traffic volumes on Cottonwood Road within the study area
exceed 11,000 vehicles, which is likely to happen as traffic continues to increase on
Cottonwood Road, the MDT matrix recommends consideration of an A-level
treatment, which could include pedestrian-actuated beacons or a pedestrian signal.
Both rectangular rapid flashing beacons (RRFBs) and HAWKs are considered
pedestrian-actuated beacons. An A-level treatment is warranted for traffic levels
above 11,000 vehicles regardless of the presence of a median refuge island.
The MDT matrix is intended to be applied after following a flow-chart which includes
a provision that a treatment should be selected if pedestrian volumes meet a
minimum of 14 pedestrians per hour for speed limits at 45-mph. However, it is also
noted that consideration may be given for latent demand, where crossings would
occur if an appropriate crossing were present, and that the limits may be reduced
Mr. Adam Schlegel
October 15, 2024
Page 4
based on engineering judgment. For mid-block crossings, the flow-chart
recommends 300-foot spacing from the nearest marked or controlled crossing but
notes that this distance is approximate and may be reduced based on engineering
judgment or where the crossing is on the path of a larger activity generator. Current
pedestrian volumes were not collected for this analysis, but it is likely that some
pedestrian demand will be present due to the volume of development ongoing on
either side of Cottonwood Road.
MUTCD HAWK guidelines show that a HAWK signal is not projected to be warranted at
the Alpha Drive and Garfield Street intersections in 2033 due to the existing refuge
island, which reduces the crosswalk length. At least 20 pedestrians crossing the
major street per hour would be required to warrant a HAWK at the Loyal Drive
intersection with existing geometry (no refuge island) and 2033 projected volumes. A
HAWK would not be warranted if a median refuge were to be installed at the Loyal
Drive intersection, thereby reducing the crosswalk length and the major street
conflicting vehicle volume.
MUTCD standards for the installation of RRFBs have yet to be developed, but the City
of Boulder, CO Pedestrian Crossing Treatment Guidelines document, published in
November 2011, provides a minimum pedestrian crossing value of 20 pedestrians per
hour as guidance for RRFB installation.
Although pedestrian activity was not recorded at the study intersections, pedestrian
and bike mode trips were projected to be generated by the site. The updated TIS from
2021 projected a high of 16 pedestrian and bike trips to occur in the AM peak period.
The majority of the pedestrian trips are projected to be generated from Phase 1 of the
development, which includes a fitness center, a clubhouse, and a coffee shop.
The analysis shows that Phase 2 of Cottonwood Subdivision is now projected to
generate less vehicle trips than what was projected in previous reports. Therefore,
this change should not present a negative impact on the transportation system
within the study area. In combination with evaluation of pedestrian crosswalk
volumes, consideration should be given to lowering the speed limit on Cottonwood
Road within the study area and/or installing RRFBs at the intersections with marked
crosswalks if daily volumes exceed the 11,000-vehicle threshold that dictates
different treatment recommendations from the MDT matrix. If a crosswalk is desired
at the Loyal Drive intersection, a pedestrian refuge island should be provided.
Mr. Adam Schlegel
October 15, 2024
Page 5
If you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to contact me at 406-922-4326
or astoltzfus@sabell.com.
Sincerely,
Audrey Stoltzfus, PE, RSP1
Project Engineer
ROFT/ars
P:\24481_Cottonwood_Sub_Ph_2_10.15.2024