HomeMy WebLinkAbout03-25-24 Public Comment - W. Swearingen - Declining Population Growth Rates in Gallatin CountyFrom:Will Swearingen
To:Agenda
Cc:will Swearingen
Subject:[EXTERNAL]Declining Population Growth Rates in Gallatin County
Date:Saturday, March 23, 2024 3:04:44 PM
Attachments:US Census Bureau 2024, Growth of Gallatin County, MT.xlsxDeclining Growth Rates. Montana"s Largest Counties.pdf
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Dear City Commissioners,
I’ve just become aware of new US Census Bureau data (published March 2024) that shows that the population
growth rate in Montana has significantly declined over the past few years. According to these data, growth in
Gallatin County declined from a peak rate of 3.8% in 2016 to 1.2% in 2023. Projecting forward, if this lower rate
prevails in the future, Gallatin County would have approximately 155,000 residents in 2040.
I attended Mayor Cunningham’s excellent State of the City Address at the Emerson Center where he showed a
graphic that indicated that Gallatin County is expected to have well over 200,000 residents by 2040. This suggests
an annual growth rate of at least 3%. I didn’t see a source on the relevant graphic. I’m wondering, what is the source
of the city's growth data?
Given that the city is continually making important decisions on new developments, infrastructure, water resources,
etc., it is critically important to have accurate, up-to-date population growth information. If the lower growth rate is
accurate, it should help give the city some welcome breathing room to handle future growth.
Attached is a valuable graphic from MT Free Press as well as an Excel spreadsheet containing the US Census
Bureau’s growth figures for Montana for the 2020 to 2023 period.
Respectfully,
Will Swearingen
D
2020 2021 2022 2023
Montana 1,084,244 1,087,211 1,106,366 1,122,878 1,132,812
.Beaverhead County, Montana 9,374 9,382 9,553 9,747 9,885
.Big Horn County, Montana 13,125 13,080 12,893 12,826 12,751
.Blaine County, Montana 7,044 7,007 7,003 6,972 6,899
.Broadwater County, Montana 6,775 6,860 7,323 7,771 8,032
.Carbon County, Montana 10,471 10,505 10,889 11,236 11,419
.Carter County, Montana 1,411 1,404 1,413 1,403 1,418
.Cascade County, Montana 84,409 84,407 84,551 85,001 84,900
.Chouteau County, Montana 5,898 5,899 5,921 5,908 5,847
.Custer County, Montana 11,869 11,866 11,961 12,000 11,985
.Daniels County, Montana 1,657 1,654 1,671 1,645 1,633
.Dawson County, Montana 8,944 8,924 8,858 8,807 8,810
.Deer Lodge County, Montana 9,424 9,420 9,518 9,544 9,673
.Fallon County, Montana 3,049 3,029 3,011 3,050 2,994
.Fergus County, Montana 11,447 11,475 11,622 11,672 11,772
.Flathead County, Montana 104,354 104,876 108,769 111,885 113,679
.Gallatin County, Montana 118,958 119,597 123,098 124,938 126,409
.Garfield County, Montana 1,172 1,172 1,208 1,218 1,211
.Glacier County, Montana 13,777 13,745 13,724 13,650 13,609
.Golden Valley County, Montana 824 821 815 826 835
.Granite County, Montana 3,310 3,312 3,360 3,497 3,595
.Hill County, Montana 16,311 16,271 16,220 16,118 16,276
.Jefferson County, Montana 12,082 12,142 12,468 12,831 13,048
.Judith Basin County, Montana 2,016 2,020 2,038 2,079 2,093
.Lake County, Montana 31,142 31,258 32,090 32,853 33,338
.Lewis and Clark County, Montana 70,970 71,177 72,507 73,784 75,011
.Liberty County, Montana 1,956 1,954 1,933 1,974 1,974
Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties in Montana: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023
Geographic Area
Population Estimate (as of July 1)April 1, 2020
Estimates Base
Gallatin County MT
= 1.2% growth, July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023
At 1.2% growth rate, will have 154,827 residents in 2040
Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties in Montana: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023
.Lincoln County, Montana 19,672 19,734 20,582 21,510 21,895
.McCone County, Montana 1,726 1,728 1,709 1,711 1,676
.Madison County, Montana 8,627 8,661 8,953 9,252 9,521
.Meagher County, Montana 1,924 1,920 1,958 2,026 2,071
.Mineral County, Montana 4,531 4,568 4,859 5,020 5,090
.Missoula County, Montana 117,927 118,347 119,841 121,011 121,849
.Musselshell County, Montana 4,737 4,750 4,908 5,169 5,308
.Park County, Montana 17,190 17,223 17,515 17,753 17,903
.Petroleum County, Montana 495 499 518 521 554
.Phillips County, Montana 4,220 4,213 4,210 4,228 4,249
.Pondera County, Montana 5,903 5,878 6,018 6,092 6,125
.Powder River County, Montana 1,697 1,696 1,710 1,732 1,743
.Powell County, Montana 6,945 6,942 7,025 7,078 7,133
.Prairie County, Montana 1,091 1,091 1,097 1,108 1,112
.Ravalli County, Montana 44,171 44,411 46,084 47,177 47,738
.Richland County, Montana 11,494 11,534 11,329 11,230 11,173
.Roosevelt County, Montana 10,798 10,801 10,788 10,537 10,319
.Rosebud County, Montana 8,335 8,309 8,086 8,152 8,160
.Sanders County, Montana 12,398 12,458 12,944 13,384 13,684
.Sheridan County, Montana 3,546 3,540 3,576 3,555 3,498
.Silver Bow County, Montana 35,132 35,210 35,502 35,947 36,360
.Stillwater County, Montana 8,964 9,003 9,024 9,169 9,173
.Sweet Grass County, Montana 3,677 3,670 3,702 3,727 3,763
.Teton County, Montana 6,226 6,252 6,275 6,346 6,430
.Toole County, Montana 4,975 4,972 4,992 5,077 5,133
.Treasure County, Montana 760 759 768 754 772
.Valley County, Montana 7,576 7,556 7,560 7,542 7,474
.Wheatland County, Montana 2,070 2,076 2,042 2,038 2,057
.Wibaux County, Montana 937 935 936 927 910
.Yellowstone County, Montana 164,731 165,218 167,438 169,870 170,843
Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties in Montana: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023
Vintage 2023 data products are associated with Data Management System projects P-6000042, P-7501659, and P-7527355. The U.S. Census Bureau reviewed these data products for
unauthorized disclosure of confidential information and approved the disclosure avoidance practices applied to this release (CBDRB-FY24-0085).
Note: The estimates are developed from a base that integrates the 2020 Census, Vintage 2020 estimates, and 2020 Demographic Analysis estimates. For population estimates
methodology statements, see https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. All geographic boundaries for the 2023 population estimates
series are as of January 1, 2023.
Suggested Citation:
Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties in Montana: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023 (CO-EST2023-POP-30)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
Release Date: March 2024