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Home My WebLink About01-26-24 Public Comment - A. Shchemelinin - Climate Plan Questions regarding Bozeman Climate Plan After the city of Bozeman passed a resolution to join the Climate Mayors Network in 2017 and enforced covid regulations in 2020, Bozeman residents experienced a decline in the quality of life, economic losses, and a serious mental health crisis. I'm unsure whether Ms. Meyer had time to read the questions I emailed yesterday, but I have a little bit different questions: • Where can we find Bozeman's total estimated CO2 emission compared with 44 million tons of CO2 per year emitted by Yellowstone? Could you demonstrate that 100% clean electricity in Bozeman will noticeably impact the total emissions in the area? • Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resiliency Strategy with 100% model agreement estimates that the average annual temperature under the stabilization emissions scenario will, between 2040 and 2069, increase by 4.5° and by 6° for the business-as-usual scenario. Would these researchers be willing to forecast the 2024 agriculture season? Accurate forecasts will have a substantial positive economic impact and will be greatly appreciated. • The same document foresees, "Sea-level rise in coastal communities in the United States is predicted to increase net migration to Gallatin County up to an estimated 50,000 people." Would the researchers who estimated migrations caused by Sea-level rise give the estimated migration caused by illegal immigration and by C40 cities proposed The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5° Celsius World? • Do you have reliable informational sources proving that C40's recommendations to reduce meat consumption to 16 kilos with an ambitious target of zero kilos per person, dairy consumption of 90 to zero kilos per person, private vehicles of 190 to none per one thousand people, and airplane flights to 1 short-haul flight every two to three years per person will positively impact Bozeman's economy? • In 2023 Montana saw an 87% increase in fentanyl trafficking. In July, officials in Bozeman arrested 18 individuals charged with patronizing a prostitute, distribution of dangerous drugs, and sexual trafficking. Can you provide the evidence that climate change and the lack of racial diversity in Bozeman should be a matter of more significant concern than cartels operating in Bozeman and that two Bozeman teachers were recently arrested for child sexual exploitation? • As Bozeman plans to produce 100% net clean energy by 2030, what are the estimated costs of redesigning Bozeman homes from gas and firewood heaters to electricity? • As heating energy outages in Bozeman may cause life-threatening conditions, the reliability of energy sources is crucial. Where can we find information on backup emergency generators that use clean energy? Bozeman Climate Plan Climate change is real. The climate naturally changes with the global evolution of the universe. Sun activity increases, and CO2 emissions from volcanoes become weaker. In addition to it, climate changes due to its evolution, and these changes can be sudden and catastrophic, This climate effect was introduced by mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz in 1963 and is well-known and called the "Lorenz attractor." Such sudden climate changes have happened multiple times throughout the history of the Earth. The best-documented example is the Little Ice Age. It started at the end of 14th century and lasted until the 19th century and appeared to be caused by massive volcanic eruptions. To become a true "leader in addressing climate change," Bozeman must achieve noticeable improvements in preparedness for natural disasters, the residents' physical and mental health, and quality of life.Yet, after the city of Bozeman passed a resolution to join the Climate Mayors in 2017 and enforced covid regulations in 2020, the city experienced a drastic decline in the quality of life, significant economic losses, and an unprecedented mental health crisis.According to city documents, city commissioners understand that "awareness and education" are essential for successfully implementing sustainability and climate change plans. I have a few questions which I believe the city should answer: 1. Climate Mayors Network was established in 2014. Can you name cities in the network where climate initiatives improved residents' quality of life and created a more equitable and inclusive environment for all? 2. Yellowstone emits about 44 million tons of carbon dioxide per year. Where can we find Bozeman's total estimated CO2 emission compared with Yellowstone? Could you demonstrate that "clean electricity" in Bozeman will impact the climate in the area? 3. China and India are the major producers of greenhouse gas emissions and global pollution. China doesn't plan to become carbon neutral until at least 2060 (India by 2070.)Where can we find the data on how Climate Mayor's initiatives reduce global emissions and how much money it costs Bozeman residents? 4. Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resiliency Strategy with 100% model agreement estimates that the average annual temperature under the stabilization emissions scenario will increase by 4.5°F between 2040 and 2069 (+6°F for business as usual scenario.) National Centers for Environmental Information calculated Montana's trend for 1996 to 2023 as +0.3°F/Decade, or+0.9°F total, and +0.S*F/Decade (2.4°F total) from 1971 to 2000.Would you kindly provide the link to the documents and the names of the researchers who provided you with +4.5°F and +6°F estimates?Would these researchers be willing to forecast the 2024 agriculture season with a 100% model agreement?Accurate forecasts will have a substantial positive economic impact and will be greatly appreciated. 5. The same document foresees, "Sea-level rise in coastal communities in the United States is predicted to increase net migration to Gallatin County up to an estimated 50,000 people... " Currently, the migration to Gallatin County is caused mainly by people escaping socialism and by illegal immigrants.Would the researchers who estimated migrations caused by Sea-level rise give the estimated numbers of people fleeing to Bozeman to escape the disastrous economic failures of socialism? 6. Where can we find a conceptual design of technology and proof of the reliability of clean energy sources that would allow Bozeman to produce 100% net clean energy by 2030?What are the estimated costs of redesigning Bozeman homes from gas-operated heaters to electricity? 7. As heating energy outages in Bozeman may cause life-threatening conditions, the reliability of energy sources is crucial. Where can we find documentation of backup emergency generators necessary for critical infrastructure protection that use 'clean energyT 8. So far, the city keeps silent about cartels operating in Bozeman and about the fact that two Bozeman teachers were recently convicted of child sexual exploitation. Can you provide the evidence that climate change and the lack of diversity in Bozeman should be matters of more significant concern for Bozeman residents than drugs and crime? 9. By now, it's common knowledge that lockdowns, school closures, forced masks, and vaccinations caused much harm and didn't provide any benefits. What are the city commissioners' positions on enforcing these regulations despite all the factual evidence provided to them by residents?What are the proposed solutions to reverse the damage? Resources: 1. Yellowstone Park Emits Tons of Carbon Dioxide, Study Finds: https•//www nytimes com/1997/12/26/us/yellowstone-park-emits-tons-of-carbon-dioxide-study- finds.html 2. Was the Little Ice Age Triggered by Massive Volcanic Eruptions?: https:Hwww.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm 3. Explosive volcanism as a key driver of the late Paleozonic ice age: https•Hpubs geoscienceworld or / sa/geology/article/47/7/600/570317/Explosive-volcanism-as- a-key-driver-of-the-late 4. Statewide Time Series Montana Maximum Temperatures: https•//www ncei noaa gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/24/ tmax/ytd/l/1895-2023?trend=true&trend base=l0&begtrendyear=2000&endtrendyear=2023 5. Statewide Time Series Montana Average Temperatures: 6. htti2s•//www ncei noaa gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/24/ tavg/all/7/1895-2023?trend=true&trend base=l0&begtrendyear=1971&endtrendyear=2023 7. Volitalie emissions and gas geochemistry of Hot Spring Basin,Yellowstone National Park: https:Hwww usgs gov/publications/volatile-emissions-and-gas-geochemistry-hot-spring-basin- yellowstone-national-park-usa l Climate Vision Through leadership and collaboration, the City of Bozeman will advance innovative solutions to cultivate a more equitable and resilient low-carbon future for current and future generations. Guiding Principles Bozeman will be a leader in addressing climate change by: • Adopting bold targets for emissions reduction and renewable energy. • Seeking innovative, actionable solutions to mitigate climate change. • Weaving sustainability and resilience into decision-making processes. • Pursuing partnerships with other municipalities and our utility provider. • Inviting all Bozeman residents to join us, including current and future leaders. Mitigation and Resiliency Goals The Bozeman Climate Plan adopted bold emission mitigation targets to set a pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050, starting with significantly reducing emissions in the next five years, then transitioning to 100% net clean electricity within 10 .years. Pesiliency goals are paired with the mitigation goals to address the impacts of climate change identified in the 2019 City of Bozeman Vulnerability Assessment and Resiliency Strategy, Resiliency Goals Conserve natural 26% emissions resources reduction by Carbon 2025 neutral Ibelow 2008) by 2050 Protect human Strengthen infrastructure to withstand natural health hazards 100%net clean electricity le ztl tl Mitigate property Increase social by and economic lo55es cohesion Cross-Cutting 'Topics Threes c,ros�--cjutting topics are infused throughout the entire plan: equity, health grid well- L-)eing, and City of Bozeman assets. Lach component of this plan was developed within tho context of these three topics, highlighting their importance and relevance to each focus area. Equity Human Health City Assets &Well-Being .) MAN" 5 City Suslalnabllity Table 1.Under the stabilization emissions scenario(RCP 4.5),the difference,or change,projected from historical conditions(1971-2000)to mid- century(2040-2069)and end-of-century(2070-2099)thirty year averages for Southwest Montana. - — — ----- RCP 4.5 (2040-2069) RCP 4.5 (2070-2099) Model Agrccment_ Average annual temperature +4.5°F +5.6°F 100% Average daily summer maximum +4.5"F +6.5"F 100% temperature Average number of days above 90°F +25 days +29 days 100% Average number of freeze free days +30 days +41 days 100% above 32°F Average annual precipitation' +0.9 inch/year +1.1 inch/year 85%2/90%3 Change in summer precipitation _ 0.1 inch/month_ -0.1 inch/month Table 2.Under the business-as-usual emissions scenario(RCP 8.5),the difference,or change,projected from historical conditions(1971-2000)to mid-century(2040-2069)and end-of-century(2070-2099)thirty-year averages for Southwest Montana. RCP 8.5 (2040-2069) RCP 8. (7070-2099) Model A rv(,i l ill Average annual temperature +6.0°F +9.8°F 100% Average daily summer maximum o temperature +6.0°F +11.8°F 100/o Average number of days above 90°F +33 days +54 days 100% Average number of freeze free days +41 days +70 days 100% above 32°F Average annual precipitation' +1.2 inch/year +1.7 inch/year i 85%5/100%6 j Change in summer precipitation -0.1 inch/month -0.1 inch/month 65% As characterized in the modeled scenarios,average and annual seasonal temperatures in Montana have been increasing since the mid-20th century and are predicted to continue to increase through the century.Likewise,in the modeled scenarios,the timing of precipitation (e.g.,winter versus spring and summer)and the form in which it will occur(e.g.,rain versus snow) is anticipated to shift.This combination of increasingly warmer days with variable precipitation results in interrelated,indirect local climate impacts.For example,decreased snowpack may lead to more severe droughts in the summer and a susceptibility to wildfire risk in the watershed.This type of direct impact will have a broad range of additional,indirect effects on the local and regional economic and social systems.The heightened susceptibility to wildfire could reduce the amount and quality of water available along with damaging ecosystems and infrastructure,limiting city-wide services available to address the impacts. Therefore,the local outdoor and tourist economy could be compromised along with considerations to public health. Another indirect consequence of climate change is human migration caused by sea level rise and other extreme weather shocks and stressors.Sea-level rise in coastal communities in the United States is predicted to increase net-migration to Gallatin County up to an estimated 50,000 people by the end of the century,exacerbating Bozeman's existing challenge of rapid population growth (Hauer,2017). 1 Interannual variability projected to range from-0.5 inch/year to+1.5 inch/year(<_80% model agreement). 2 85%model agreement for RCP 4.5(2040-2069). 3 90%model agreement for RCP 4.5 (2070-2099). 4Interannual variability projected to range from-0.4 inch/year to+1.9 inch/year(>_80%model agreement). 5 85%model agreement for RCP 8.5 (2040-2069). 6 100%model agreement for RCP 8.5(2070-2099). 41111,1. 14,511 Food:Consumption interventions Clothing and textiles: belly Rrld+±ilyd hea tLYdq'Ibtdle-d consumption interventions n>r,sa lie l...A);+.in;troa nl tanld Iim ,bldy matlok" (Wni Inlerrantulna that could rMdnrb lifita11111pnitp•l aidd eknk1''Ikianh born Oothln, and tevnlet acro"Catl 01W, IebH 3 .uriylian�nter�t•ni�unt Ier lane _d :,rmi-d e�y ne IN 2010 TWO< ipny)MtNltnr MtyfVpninlnt Ivr 16 kg 0 k8 SiryrvlSN any lzildsa dH9 N3R:MA1 Of olyit pqr purspfl ury7t sOtriUmph.,m UNr YBs7Ni �® AMBITIOVS TARGET IN 2030 mlfarvianuna IsC araglariyd �� kg ni fhmu Mylor f..hanTej JOY rpn9gnlpbpn(anik of !fairy rgn59mVlipn(nulk pr vm dwlibod In niula rdgrtvatWy ydlnvalynl)Vyr dyllvptivey yt)oiVolyn11 Vgr q .i',rui pgrypu Vyr ygaf!' VWW"pgr yygf Reduce number 41 clothing J and Textile items nqw I,h)lhing i4gmy Vgr nyi r•Ipl hmi,0;1n;pi,r Vyr57n pqr Ygar UvrS.n Lnir'vso� 2,500 kcal 2,500 kcal per per,pn per day Per person per day Heduee Wane In the supply 50% 75 70 50% chain redmahan ill supply Chain leduuIon❑n,ufiply Oww Ncauan huaaehatd waxM 0% wAtha waSlo rdduellon in huu,ehold KmO1e111 toad wand fund waxle 50% 75% Ate•-;d supply cluiln waste reduction in supply reduction in supply chain food waste Chain food waste Private transport: 5.7.1 consumption interventions Aviation:consumption N y J v w intervention c on,urnpl�on InlyrvynliynT havy bean IAyq .a t r, n,r,dull d I reduce rrnwumpuan•basyd I ':h �.� ,• ,�.. ...,J! ,. �..,v Yhij study modelled two intgrventluris for nr i rq front prlvatg IroniUort arro)S f,40 rd i,e.. ., r • reducing ronSumpllpn grni551hn5 from avrafipn td:•i.;!y;gi,n nr Tgbly ;jcrn5'i✓o cifiV5.a1 5ygn in Tablq 0 Tabh 5 Tebh li u>9nlp4ern mL;wrnri7nz tvr pnwie Pgniiumptign IntItmornionS lot rran...porr and anaaaared Cartels, aviation and asiociated targets (OftqV%qP1;GNT.UtT A%I61TiQL'5 TARGET PROGRESSIVE TARGET INTERVENT ON rIN 190 0 1 1 Mduce nlvneneMp veh-tles per 1,000 people„ private vehicles Reduce number of flights short•haul return Ihk+h in h l Shull•haul raisin (less than 1500 km)Every i (less than 150 km)every 2 years per person" 9 years Ver pqr>on 20-year SO-year 58% 10096 VotI.tlm bfchnra 1lfytia if body iy Ixr hwy lifgtiniq fr Of vyhic. of VVII.Vly sgo4ulobly jlVIAoll ;y5t a6i(dq siriNrinn lyhyll Intgripr)n (l;hyll)f InWrir.,rj 3e±tahlably yvl�hyn fllyl Iuyl adoptyl(w ethyl Ipyl adVUly)for ntiigr yoUly nly(lT low r.arhnrf 5quivolyn)lyw fgrhnolop nr luov'• lyr,hnulo"nl luo) t 1 6f,ilm l,il afflclyh!:y 50% ryrlilr httn in V3q of mglol and VI,r5tii,ma1190015 C O0 IA •V - tt0� H 4c IL c to 0>1 ao L nw. 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