HomeMy WebLinkAboutGallatin County Planning and Coordination Committee District 7- 20231
MEMO
TO: Gallatin County Planning Coordination Committee
FROM: Mike Waterman, Executive Director of Business and Operations, Bozeman Public
Schools
DATE: June 14, 2023
SUBJECT: SCHOOL ROUNDTABLE INFORMATION
Thank you for the invitation to this meeting; unfortunately, scheduling conflicts will prevent District staff
from attending. The following memo addresses the two topics on your agenda—enrollment and capital
projects—from the Bozeman School District’s perspective.
STUDENT ENROLLMENT HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS
Enrollment is the primary factor for determining school district spending authority under Montana law.
The Bozeman community continues to grow, and the District’s enrollment projections play a key role in
both short- and long-term budget decisions.
Enrollment History
Bozeman has enjoyed a long period of sustained enrollment growth–and the accompanying budget
increases that go with it. However, enrollment trends have changed significantly in recent years and our
school enrollment growth no longer mirrors our community growth. Following are the highlights of our
most recent (October 2022) enrollment count:
• On a Districtwide basis, then, enrollment continued to grow. We reached a new all-time high of
enrollment in 2022: 7,282 students K-12:
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The overall enrollment growth is not spread evenly among our grade bands and a deeper dive
reveals some very noteworthy trends.
• K-5 enrollment in Bozeman decreased for the third time in the last four years and remains 180
students below its pre-pandemic peak. While all buildings rebounded partially after the COVID-
19 pandemic in 2020, Irving and Morning Star have not regained their pre-pandemic enrollment
numbers.
Additionally, all buildings were not impacted equally by the pandemic. For example,
Meadowlark—for several years, our largest elementary—is down 42 students from its pre-
pandemic peak. It is now our third largest elementary building behind Emily Dickinson and
Hyalite. Enrollment at Irving also continues to decrease with only 184 students, down from 198
in 2021. Irving is by far our smallest building—nearly one-third smaller than the next smallest
school (Whitter). Interestingly, Hyalite and Longfellow have both grown and have continued to
grow, even through the pandemic years.
Overall, the total K-5 enrollment of 3,055 students is approximately where it was in 2015—two
years after Meadowlark Elementary opened:
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• Middle School enrollment also decreased this year. With only three grade levels, middle school
enrollment tends to remain relatively consistent from year to year. Middle school boundaries
changed several years ago to account for the facility expansion at Sacajawea Middle
School. These boundary changes caused a notable redistribution of middle school
enrollment. As a result of those changes, SMS remains the larger building, with 78 more
students than Chief Joseph Middle School:
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100
200
300
400
500
600
StudentsK-5 Enrollment by Building
October 1
2020 2021 2022
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100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Chief Joseph MS Sacajawea MS Bozeman Online Charter
SchoolStudentsMiddle School Enrollment by Building
October 1
2020 2021 2022
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• High School enrollment increased for the twelfth consecutive year. This year, the increase was
121 students—5.1%—to bring the total enrollment to 2,630 students, another all-time
high. The enrollment growth at the High School level was larger than the decreases at the
Elementary and Middle School levels, and is alone responsible for the District’s overall growth.
2022 marks the second year with two fully operational high schools in the Bozeman School
District. During the planning process for the second building, great care was taken to ensure
enrollments at the buildings would be as similar as possible. It appears this effort was largely
successful: Gallatin High School currently has 72 more students than Bozeman High School, a
consistency not enjoyed by any other Montana community with multiple AA high schools:
The changing landscape of enrollment is not unique to Bozeman. K-12 enrollment decreased this past
year in both the Belgrade and Manhattan Public School District’s by 19 and 35 students,
respectively. This year, total enrollment in Gallatin County–including all public, home, and private
schools–is down 109 students from last year’s peak, ending a decades long string of growth:
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Bozeman HS Gallatin HSStudentsHigh School Enrollment by Building
October 1
2020 2021 2022
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Enrollment Projections
The Bozeman School District uses Cohort Survival Ratios to project future enrollment. This methodology
involves tracking what percentage of students in a given grade progress to the next grade the next year.
These percentages are averaged over a given number of years, and this average growth rate is applied
to the current year enrollment to project future enrollment. The District currently averages cohort
survival rates over 3, 5, and 10 years. The District then compares the results and determines which
version should serve as the official projection.
While not exact, historical projections have proven very accurate and reliable over time. Historically,
the District’s biggest challenge regarding enrollment projections remains accurately forecasting the
number of incoming kindergartners. Our current methodology involves a hybrid of live-birth data from
Bozeman Deaconess Hospital, Gallatin County, state and county populations trends available from the
Montana Department of Health and Human Services, and US Census data.
This year, the District is using the 10-year cohort survival rate projections as its official 2023-24
Elementary and High School enrollment projections. A graph of that official count (solid lines) and
projection (dashed lines) is presented below:
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K-12 Enrollment - All Schools 13,499 13,845 14,258 14,804 15,318 15,598 16,037 16,283 16,654 16,545
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Gallatin County K-12 School Enrollment
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As you can see from the graph, the District expects enrollment at all grade bands to remain level into the
foreseeable future. Several factors are taken into consideration when determining why the population
of the county is growing while District enrollment is anticipated to stagnate:
• Live Birth Rate – The Bozeman School District tracks birth rates at Bozeman Health because
those babies become our Kindergarten classes +/- 5 years into the future. The 2023-24
kindergarten class will generally be comprised of students born in 2018—which was in the midst
of a four-year decline in birth rate at Bozeman Health.
Although Bozeman Health saw a record number of lives births in 2021 (1300 births), it was a
one-year anomaly, and the birth rate subsequently decreased in 2022 to 1,202. Bozeman Health
confirmed that although the Bozeman community seems to be growing at a rapid pace, they are
seeing a decreasing number of anticipated pregnancies within the Bozeman Health system.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Bozeman Schools
Enrollment History (solid lines) and Projections (dashed lines)
Elementary (Grades K-5)Middle School (Grades 6-8)High School (Grades 9-12)K-12 Total
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The declining local birth rate leads the District to anticipate smaller kindergarten classes into the
foreseeable future.
• Cost of living – While the local housing market has skyrocketed in recent years, local salary costs
have not kept pace. As a result, the community is seeing younger families move out of the area
because of the affordability, which results in fewer students for the School District.
By all accounts, Gallatin County’s growth is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. However,
the demographic of the population moving into the greater Bozeman area is not one that includes school
age children. While Bozeman has many things to offer—bountiful outdoor recreational opportunities,
the natural beauty of the area, proximity to two major ski resorts and to Yellowstone National Park—the
cost of living is preventing younger, school aged families from relocating to the area.
While a certain amount of skepticism should always accompany projections, the HB203 approved by the
2023 Legislature makes our current projections particularly tentative. HB203 provides that students can
attend a school district outside of their district of residence beginning in 2045-25. Unlike many of the
surrounding schools, the Bozeman School District traditionally has not opened its doors to nonresident
students due to our rapid growth. The District does not have a model to predict how our enrollment
might change when open enrollment becomes effective in the 2024-25 school year.
1,139
1,206
1,255 1,295 1,271
1,185 1,149 1,139
1,300
1,202
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Bozeman Deaconess Hospital Live Births
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CAPITAL PROJECTS
Schools are funded based on historical enrollment. As a result, we are reactive to enrollment shifts—
not drivers of them.
As recently as five years ago, enrollment projections indicated our eight existing elementary buildings
would be full by now and we would be in the midst of constructing our ninth K-5 building to
accommodate that growth. As indicated above, our enrollment has changed dramatically and no
additional buildings are anticipated for the foreseeable future:
Our historic growth ensures that facility planning remains high on our list of priorities, and the District
has planned very well for future buildings. The District currently owns undeveloped properties:
• North 27th Avenue and Catamount. 12 acres, balance of bus barn site
• Patterson Road. 30 acres, potential future elementary site
• Durston and Cottonwood. 9 acres, currently under MOU with City of Bozeman for West Side
Community Center
• Cottonwood and Stucky. 57 acres for possible future high school site.
• Kimberwicke and Arabian. 2 acres, likely to be sold in the near future
• Baxter and Davis. 20 acres, potential future elementary site
• Red Mountain and Knowles Peak. 10 acres, potential future elementary site
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
StudentsBozeman Public Schools
Enrollment vs. Functional Capacity
Elementary Enrollment (Grades K-5)Elementary Building Capacity
Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6-8)Middle School Building Capacity
High School Enrollment (Grades 9-12)High School Building Capacity
Projected Actual
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Additional details are available here.
Each year, the District’s Board of Trustees adopts a Capital Projects plan. This year’s document is
available here. Although it does not include any new construction, the District does intend to continue
to invest in facility maintenance and upgrades facilities as needed.
Please contact me at (406) 522-6097 or mike.waterman@bsd7.org if you have questions or need
additional information.
Mike