HomeMy WebLinkAbout2022-2023 Enrollment Memo Bozeman School District 7
DATE: November 14, 2022 TO: Board of Trustees All Administrators FROM: Lacy Clark, Director of Business Services RE: 2022 Enrollment Count and Future Projections Enrollment for Bozeman Public Schools increased by 65 students to 7,282 from October 1, 2021 to October 1, 2022—a 0.9% increase. The K-5 elementary, 6-8 middle school, and 9-12 high school total enrollments are 3,055, 1,597, and 2,630, respectively. While the K-8 elementary saw a decrease in enrollment, the high school numbers once again are new record highs. The K-5 decrease is the second drop in enrollment in the last three years. In 2021 the K-5 elementary gained back some of the enrollment that was lost from the COVID pandemic. However, the 2022 numbers decreased by 15 students from last year’s count. As a result, K-5 enrollment remains approximately where it was in 2015. Additional highlights of this year’s enrollment count include:
• Kindergarten enrollment decreased 22 students—this comes after an increase of 100 students in 2021-2022, presumably due to the pandemic. While the decrease this year was not large, it is a substantially lower number than the District has seen since 2015, omitting the pandemic enrollment counts. This year’s Kindergartners were likely born around 2017. 2017 was the first of a 4-year decrease in hospital births. The birth rate at the hospital increased in 2021 when they produced a record number of deliveries. With the significantly birth rate decrease from 2017-2020, it will likely mean smaller Kindergarten classes through 2024.
• K-5 enrollment saw a small decrease of 15 students. While the majority of grade levels have maintained or grown since 2020, the decreased size of the Kindergarten class makes up the total loss in enrollment. While all buildings rebounded partially after a very significant decrease 2020, again presumably due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Irving and Morning Star have not regained their pre-pandemic enrollment numbers. Overall, the total K-5 enrollment of 3,055 students is approximately where it was in 2015—two years after Meadowlark Elementary opened. Additionally, all buildings were not impacted equally by the pandemic. For example, Meadowlark—for several years, our largest elementary—is down 42 students from its pre-pandemic peak. It is now our third largest elementary building behind Emily Dickinson and Hyalite. Enrollment at Irving also continues to decrease with only 184 students, down from 198 in 2021. Irving is by far our smallest building—nearly one-third smaller than the next smallest school (Whitter). Interestingly, Hyalite and Longfellow have both grown and have continued to grow, even through the pandemic years.
• 6-8 middle school enrollment decreased by 41 students in total. As you may recall, middle school boundaries changed several years ago to account for the facility expansion at Sacajawea Middle School. These boundary
Lacy Clark Director of Business Services District Clerk Voice: (406) 522-6045 Fax: (406) 522-6050 Lacy.Clark@bsd7.org
Bozeman Public Schools 404 West Main, P.O. Box 520 Bozeman, MT 59771-0520 www.bsd7.org
changes caused a notable redistribution of middle school enrollment. As a result of those changes, SMS remains the larger building, with 78 more students than Chief Joseph Middle School.
• Bozeman Online Charter School (BOCS) registered 108 students in its first year. With the 2022 enrollment, there was a decrease of 64 total students from the BOCS. K-5 amounted to 40 of those, and middle school enrollment accounted for 24. It is noted that the majority of those students did return to one of the district’s physical K-8 locations. Therefore, the decrease specifically to that school does not constitute the loss of those students to other educational opportunities outside of the district.
• 9-12 high school enrollment increased for the twelfth consecutive year. This year, the increase was 121 students—5.05%—to bring the total enrollment to 2,630 students, another all-time high. The previous enrollment record—2,509 students—was set last year. High school enrollment will likely continue to grow for at least one more year before levelling off. 2022 marks the second year with two fully operational high schools in the Bozeman School District. During the planning process for the second building, great care was taken to ensure enrollments at the buildings would be as similar as possible. While Gallatin High School currently has 72 more students than Bozeman High School, neither High School are near their functional capacity, and with enrollment anticipated to level off in the next year, both should remain well within their enrollment limits. Each year, the District projects future enrollment. Following are the projected enrollment counts for October 2022 that were made last year compared to this year’s actual enrollment:
Level Projected 2022 Enrollment Actual 2022 Enrollment Variance
Elementary K-5 3,079 3,055 -24
Middle School 6-8 1,614 1,597 -17
Elementary Subtotal 4,693 4,652 -41
High School 9-12 2,637 2,630 -7
K-12 Total 7,330 7,282 -48
Overall, the District’s margin of error on the 2022 projections was 0.65%. Excluding the pandemic years, this margin of error is in line with prior year projections.
Projected enrollments for October 2023 through 2032 are calculated on a three-, five- and ten-year cohort survival (CSR) bases, and are included in this report. The Kindergarten projections are based on live birth data and census data, and are the same for each CSR projection. This year, administration recommends using the 10-year CSR for the District’s official 2023-24 enrollment projections. Based on that model, projected enrollment for October 2023 is:
2022-23 Projected Enrollment
K-5 3,067 6-8 1,559 9-12 2,667
Total 7,292
Since the Montana legislature will be in session in 2023, the district anticipates there may be changes to parts of our state’s public education funding structure. As a result, the 2023-24 budgets will be based on these enrollment counts and the legislative outcomes.