HomeMy WebLinkAbout2022-2023 Enrollment Memo Bozeman School District 7 Lacy Clark
Bozeman Public Schools Director of Business Services
404 West Main, P.O. Box 520 District Clerk
Bozeman, MT 59771-0520 Voice: (406)522-6045
www.bsd7.org Fax: (406)522-6050
Lacy.Clark@bsd7.org
DATE: November 14, 2022
TO: Board of Trustees
All Administrators
FROM: Lacy Clark, Director of Business Services
RE: 2022 Enrollment Count and Future Projections
Enrollment for Bozeman Public Schools increased by 65 students to 7,282 from October 1, 2021 to October 1, 2022—a
0.9% increase.
The K-5 elementary, 6-8 middle school, and 9-12 high school total enrollments are 3,055, 1,597, and 2,630, respectively.
While the K-8 elementary saw a decrease in enrollment, the high school numbers once again are new record highs. The
K-5 decrease is the second drop in enrollment in the last three years. In 2021 the K-5 elementary gained back some of
the enrollment that was lost from the COVID pandemic. However, the 2022 numbers decreased by 15 students from
last year's count. As a result, K-5 enrollment remains approximately where it was in 2015.
Additional highlights of this year's enrollment count include:
• Kindergarten enrollment decreased 22 students—this comes after an increase of 100 students in 2021-2022,
presumably due to the pandemic. While the decrease this year was not large, it is a substantially lower number
than the District has seen since 2015, omitting the pandemic enrollment counts.
This year's Kindergartners were likely born around 2017. 2017 was the first of a 4-year decrease in hospital births.
The birth rate at the hospital increased in 2021 when they produced a record number of deliveries. With the
significantly birth rate decrease from 2017-2020, it will likely mean smaller Kindergarten classes through 2024.
• K-5 enrollment saw a small decrease of 15 students. While the majority of grade levels have maintained or grown
since 2020, the decreased size of the Kindergarten class makes up the total loss in enrollment. While all buildings
rebounded partially after a very significant decrease 2020, again presumably due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Irving
and Morning Star have not regained their pre-pandemic enrollment numbers. Overall, the total K-5 enrollment of
3,055 students is approximately where it was in 2015—two years after Meadowlark Elementary opened.
Additionally, all buildings were not impacted equally by the pandemic. For example, Meadowlark—for several
years, our largest elementary—is down 42 students from its pre-pandemic peak. It is now our third largest
elementary building behind Emily Dickinson and Hyalite. Enrollment at Irving also continues to decrease with only
184 students, down from 198 in 2021. Irving is by far our smallest building—nearly one-third smaller than the next
smallest school (Whitter). Interestingly, Hyalite and Longfellow have both grown and have continued to grow, even
through the pandemic years.
• 6-8 middle school enrollment decreased by 41 students in total. As you may recall, middle school boundaries
changed several years ago to account for the facility expansion at Sacajawea Middle School. These boundary
changes caused a notable redistribution of middle school enrollment. As a result of those changes, SMS remains
the larger building, with 78 more students than Chief Joseph Middle School.
• Bozeman Online Charter School (BOCS) registered 108 students in its first year. With the 2022 enrollment, there
was a decrease of 64 total students from the BOCS. K-5 amounted to 40 of those, and middle school enrollment
accounted for 24. It is noted that the majority of those students did return to one of the district's physical K-8
locations. Therefore, the decrease specifically to that school does not constitute the loss of those students to other
educational opportunities outside of the district.
• 9-12 high school enrollment increased for the twelfth consecutive year. This year, the increase was 121 students-
5.05%—to bring the total enrollment to 2,630 students, another all-time high. The previous enrollment record-
2,509 students—was set last year. High school enrollment will likely continue to grow for at least one more year
before levelling off.
2022 marks the second year with two fully operational high schools in the Bozeman School District. During the
planning process for the second building, great care was taken to ensure enrollments at the buildings would be as
similar as possible. While Gallatin High School currently has 72 more students than Bozeman High School, neither
High School are near their functional capacity, and with enrollment anticipated to level off in the next year, both
should remain well within their enrollment limits.
Each year, the District projects future enrollment. Following are the projected enrollment counts for October 2022
that were made last year compared to this year's actual enrollment:
Level Projected 2022 Actual 2022 Variance
Enrollment Enrollment
Elementary K-5 3,079 3,055 -24
Middle School 6-8 1,614 1,597 -17
Elementary Subtotal 4,693 4,652 -41
High School 9-12 2,637 2,630 -7
K-12 Total 7,330 7,282 -48
Overall, the District's margin of error on the 2022 projections was 0.65%. Excluding the pandemic years, this margin of
error is in line with prior year projections.
Projected enrollments for October 2023 through 2032 are calculated on a three-, five-and ten-year cohort survival (CSR)
bases, and are included in this report. The Kindergarten projections are based on live birth data and census data, and are
the same for each CSR projection. This year, administration recommends using the 10-year CSR for the District's official
2023-24 enrollment projections. Based on that model, projected enrollment for October 2023 is:
2022-23 Projected
Enrollment
K-5 3,067
6-8 1,559
9-12 2,667
Total 7 292
Since the Montana legislature will be in session in 2023, the district anticipates there may be changes to parts of our
state's public education funding structure. As a result, the 2023-24 budgets will be based on these enrollment counts
and the legislative outcomes.