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HomeMy WebLinkAbout01-31-22 Public comment - J. Morice - Agenda Action Item J.1_ South 3rd_Gallatin County Housing Report 2021From:Julien Morice To:Agenda Subject:Public comment: Agenda Action Item J.1/ South 3rd/Gallatin County Housing Report 2021 Date:Monday, January 31, 2022 2:58:13 PM Attachments:report.pdf CAUTION: This email originated from outside of the organization. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe. Dear Mayor and Commissioners, I have included the Gallatin County Annual Housing Report for your review. Thank you. https://gallatin-public.stats.showingtime.com/docs/ann/x/report?src=page Julien Morice / Principal j@ironwoodd.com / 406-581-9999 Ironwood, Inc. 212 N. BroadwayBozeman, MT 59715 www.ironwoodd.com Ironwood Inc. Proprietary: The information in this document and all attachment(s) is confidential information of Ironwood Inc. and may be legally privileged. It is intended only for the use of the addressee(s) listed. Any dissemination, or copying of this document or any of its attachment(s) without the prior written permission of Ironwood Inc. is strictly prohibited. If you have received this document or any of its attachment(s) in error, please immediately notify the sender by telephone at the number above and return the original document and any attachment(s) to Ironwood Inc. Annual Report for Gallatin County RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE IN GALLATIN COUNTY Table of Contents 3 Quick Facts 5 Property Type Review 6 New Construction Review 7 Price Range Review 8 Area Overviews 9 Area Historical Median Prices Current as of January 10, 2022. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2021 ShowingTime. | 2 2021 Annual Report for Gallatin County  Fervent buyer demand, driven by pandemic-induced changes to housing needs and preferences, reached extraordinary levels in 2021. The inventory of homes for sale remained low, as home seller activity did not rise proportionally to meet this demand. New construction activity, while strong, remains limited by a combination of material and labor shortages, rising material costs, and a regulatory and operational environment that makes it difficult to scale quickly.  The strong seller’s market of 2020 continued and even strengthened in 2021, with inventory levels remaining low and multiple offer situations common across much of the housing market both locally and nationally. Multiple offers again drove prices significantly higher for the year.   Sales: Pending sales decreased 14.7 percent, finishing 2021 at 2,679. Closed sales were down 7.6 percent to end the year at 2,742. Listings: Comparing 2021 to the prior year, the number of homes available for sale was lower by 41.9 percent. There were 157 active listings at the end of 2021. New listings decreased by 8.5 percent to finish the year at 2,892. New Construction: Nationwide, builder activity was strong but remained constrained by material availability, a tight labor market, and cost increases. Construction of new housing units are still well below levels experts believe are necessary for an adequate supply. Locally, months of supply ended 2021 at 1.4 months for new construction.  RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE IN GALLATIN COUNTY Prices: Home prices were up compared to last year. The overall median sales price increased 36.2 percent to $599,000 for the year. Single Family home prices were up 30.5 percent compared to last year, and Townhouse-Condo home prices were up 32.8 percent. List Price Received: Sellers received, on average, 100.5 percent of their list price at sale, up 1.5 percent from 2020. The 2021 housing market was once again strong both locally and nationally. Inventory shortages and high buyer demand continued to push home prices higher, with multiple offers on a limited number of homes the common theme in most market segments.   This year looks to continue the trends seen in the last 18 months, pushing home prices higher still.  As mortgage rates are likely to continue to rise over the year as well, housing affordability will remain an important factor to watch.  Spanish Peaks Mtn. Club + 47.5%Broadwater County + 33.1% Deer Lodge County + 36.7%Spanish Peaks Mtn. Club + 31.7% Greater Manhattan + 33.3%Greater Manhattan + 27.6% Madison County + 25.6%Livingston City Limits + 22.8% Broadwater County + 20.8%Madison County + 22.2% Big Sky Meadow Village - 20.8%Belgrade - 18.8% Bozeman Main to Kagy - 22.7%Bozeman South of Kagy - 22.3% Bozeman North of Main / East of 19th - 24.2%Sweet Grass County - 23.6% Bozeman South of Kagy - 27.6%Bozeman Main to Kagy - 32.1% Moonlight Basin - 46.5%Moonlight Basin - 50.6% Broadwater County + 65.5%Bozeman North of Main / West of 19th + 84.1% Bozeman North of Main / East of 19th + 53.5%Deer Lodge County + 45.9% Madison County + 31.1%Butte + 29.5% Jefferson County + 26.9%Silver Bow County + 27.4% Butte + 20.6%Bozeman City Limits + 23.4% Spanish Peaks Mtn. Club - 25.6%Broadwater County - 29.4% Bozeman Main to Kagy - 27.9%Broadwater County - 29.4% Sweet Grass County - 29.3%Jefferson County - 30.0% Bozeman South of Kagy - 30.1%Spanish Peaks Mtn. Club - 35.0% Moonlight Basin - 43.1%Livingston City Limits - 43.6% Quick Facts 2021 Annual Report for Gallatin County Current as of January 10, 2022. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2021 ShowingTime. | 3 Bottom 5 Areas: Change in Closed Sales from 2020 Bottom 5 Areas: Change in Homes for Sale from 2020 Top 5 Areas: Change in Pending Sales from 2020 Bottom 5 Areas: Change in Pending Sales from 2020 Top 5 Areas: Change in Closed Sales from 2020 Top 5 Areas: Change in Inventory of Homes for Sale from 2020 Bottom 5 Areas: Change in New Listings from 2020 Top 5 Areas: Change in New Listings from 2020 At the end of the year. 680 613 702 270 157 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2,446 2,470 2,444 2,969 2,742 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2,427 2,409 2,475 3,142 2,679 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2,982 2,911 3,144 3,161 2,892 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 New Listings Pending Sales -2.4%+ 8.0%+ 0.5% Closed Sales Inventory of Homes for Sale -8.5%-0.7%+ 2.7%+ 26.9%-14.7% + 1.0%-1.1%+ 21.5%-7.6%-9.9%+ 14.5%-61.5%-41.9% Sweet Grass County +77.8%Greater Three Forks +118.6% Bozeman Main to Kagy +51.7%Bozeman Main to Kagy +46.4% Greater Three Forks +43.2%Belgrade +43.9% Belgrade +37.6%Bozeman South of Kagy +35.2% Moonlight Basin +36.5%Bozeman City Limits +34.6% Greater Manhattan +15.6%Deer Lodge County +16.5% Butte +13.9%Butte +16.4% Silver Bow County +13.4%Moonlight Basin +12.6% Greater Big Sky +9.4%Greater Big Sky +5.7% Deer Lodge County +7.1%Big Sky Mountain +5.7% Jefferson County +72.7%Big Sky Meadow Village +3.0% Bozeman Main to Kagy +25.0%Deer Lodge County +1.9% Sweet Grass County +19.2%Big Sky Mountain +1.9% Belgrade 0.0%Bozeman North of Main / West of 19th +1.7% Belgrade 0.0%West Yellowstone +1.7% Butte - 56.3%Jefferson County +0.9% Greater Big Sky - 56.4%Moonlight Basin +0.5% Deer Lodge County - 57.1%Beaverhead County +0.3% Big Sky Meadow Village - 78.8%Greater Manhattan +0.3% Bozeman North of Main / East of 19th - 80.0%Spanish Peaks Mtn. Club - 0.4% 2021 Annual Report for Gallatin County Quick Facts Top 5 Areas: Change in Median Sales Price from 2020 Top 5 Areas: Change in Avg. Sales Price from 2020 Bottom 5 Areas: Change in Median Sales Price from 2020 Bottom 5 Areas: Change in Avg. Sales Price from 2020 Current as of January 10, 2022. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2021 ShowingTime. | 4 Bottom 5 Areas: Change in Months Supply from 2020 Bottom 5 Areas: Change in Pct. of List Price Received from 2020 Top 5 Areas: Change in Months Supply from 2020 Top 5 Areas: Change in Pct. of List Price Received from 2020 $331,000 $372,750 $396,000 $439,900 $599,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 98.5%98.4%98.4% 99.0% 100.5% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3.4 3.1 3.4 1.0 0.7 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 $435,638 $494,372 $536,949 $673,954 $856,582 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Median Sales Price Average Sales Price +12.6%+6.2%+11.1% Months Supply of Inventory Percent of List Price Received +36.2%+13.5%+8.6%+25.5%+27.1% -8.8%+9.7%-70.6%-30.0%-0.1%0.0%+0.6%+1.5% Top Areas: Condo/Townhouse Market Share in 2021 Big Sky Mountain 89.4% Big Sky Meadow Village 82.8% Moonlight Basin 78.0% Greater Big Sky 74.4% Bozeman North of Main / West of 19th 56.6% Bozeman North of Main / East of 19th 54.9% Bozeman City Limits 53.8% Bozeman Main to Kagy 47.6% Spanish Peaks Mtn. Club 44.8% Bozeman South of Kagy 44.7% Gallatin County 40.6% Livingston City Limits 34.1% Belgrade 26.5% Park County 26.3% Bozeman Areas Outside City Limits 14.1% Property Type Review 0.8 0.6 Average Months Supply Condo/Townhouse Average Months Supply Single Family 2021 Annual Report for Gallatin County Current as of January 10, 2022. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2021 ShowingTime. | 5 One-Year Change in Price Single Family One-Year Change in Price Condo/Townhouse Pct. of List Price Received Single Family Pct. of List Price Received Condo/Townhouse + 30.5%+ 32.8%100.1%101.0% 98.3%98.9%98.3%98.7%98.4%98.6%98.9%99.2%100.1%101.0% Single Family Condo/Townhouse 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 $375K $260K $419K $296K $440K $319K $525K $335K $685K $445K Single Family Condo/Townhouse 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 1-2017 1-2018 1-2019 1-2020 1-2021 Residential Condominium Months Supply of Inventory Median Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Spanish Peaks Mtn. Club 58.6% Moonlight Basin 46.3% Broadwater County 40.1% Bozeman South of Kagy 33.3% Bozeman South of Kagy 33.3% Bozeman North of Main / East of 19th 32.6% Big Sky Meadow Village 31.2% Greater Big Sky 29.6% Park County 26.3% Bozeman North of Main / West of 19th 23.9% Bozeman City Limits 23.4% Gallatin County 19.7% Big Sky Mountain 19.5% Belgrade 14.6% Bozeman Areas Outside City Limits 14.4% Current as of January 10, 2022. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2021 ShowingTime. | 6 100.5% Year-End Months Supply New Construction Year-End Months Supply Previously Owned Pct. of Orig. Price Received New Construction Pct. of Orig. Price Received Previously Owned This chart uses a rolling 12-month average for each data point. 100.4% Peak of New Construction Inventory Drop in New Construction Inventory from Peak 1.4 0.6 2021 Annual Report for Gallatin County New Construction Review Oct '19 276 Top Areas: New Construction Market Share in 2021 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1-2017 1-2018 1-2019 1-2020 1-2021 4.1 3.1 3.8 2.8 6.3 2.6 1.2 0.91.4 0.6 New Construction Previously Owned 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 96.5% 97.0% 97.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0% 99.5% 100.0% 100.5% 101.0% 1-2017 1-2018 1-2019 1-2020 1-2021 New Construction Previously Owned New Construction Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory Percent of List Price Received 2021 Annual Report for Gallatin County Current as of January 10, 2022. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2021 ShowingTime. | 7 Price Range with Shortest Average Days on Market Price Range with Longest Average Days on Market of Homes for Sale at Year End Priced $198,999 or Less One-Year Change in Homes for Sale Priced $198,999 or Less $449,000 or More + 38.9%$198,999 or Less - 76.7% Share of Homes for Sale $198,999 or Less Days on Market Until Sale by Price Range Price Range Review $199,000 to $288,999 $198,999 or Less 0.6% Price Range with the Most Closed Sales Price Range with Strongest One-Year Change in Sales: $449,000 or More Price Range with the Fewest Closed Sales Price Range with Weakest One-Year Change in Sales: $199,000 to $288,999 - 90.9% 436 25 34 34 $198,999 or Less $199,000 to $288,999 $289,000 to $448,999 $449,000 or More 62 363 1,112 907 50 331 1,141 1,447 13 77 642 2,010 $198,999 or Less $199,000 to $288,999 $289,000 to $448,999 $449,000 or More 2019 2020 2021 Closed Sales by Price Range 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1-2017 1-2018 1-2019 1-2020 1-2021 Total Closed Sales Change from 2020 Percent New Construction Percent Condominium New Listings Months Supply Pct. of List Price Received Beaverhead County 143 +7.5%5.6%1.4%147 1.8 96.5% Belgrade 540 -13.7%13.5%26.5%573 0.3 101.1% Big Sky Meadow Village 157 +1.9%24.6%82.8%133 0.7 99.6% Big Sky Mountain 113 +18.9%15.5%89.4%110 2.5 98.6% Bozeman Areas Outside City Limits 548 -8.5%11.0%14.1%611 2.5 98.6% Bozeman City Limits 1,120 -8.0%22.5%53.8%1,136 0.3 101.2% Bozeman Main to Kagy 147 -27.9%1.9%47.6%180 0.3 101.2% Bozeman North of Main / East of 19th 175 +53.5%30.3%54.9%138 0.3 100.2% Bozeman North of Main / West of 19th 675 -6.8%23.0%56.6%687 0.3 100.2% Bozeman South of Kagy 123 -30.1%32.8%44.7%131 0.1 100.7% Broadwater County 182 +65.5%18.4%0.5%192 0.1 100.7% Greater Big Sky 371 -3.4%20.9%74.4%369 1.7 98.6% Greater Manhattan 104 +19.5%9.1%11.5%132 1.7 98.6% Greater Three Forks 57 -8.1%2.6%0.0%70 0.6 99.7% Jefferson County 66 +26.9%3.1%0.0%79 0.6 99.7% Livingston City Limits 261 +19.2%28.7%34.1%291 0.7 100.6% Madison County 211 +31.1%3.3%2.4%255 0.7 100.6% Park County 346 +15.3%21.0%26.3%413 0.9 99.7% Sweet Grass County 41 -29.3%0.0%0.0%49 0.9 99.7% West Yellowstone 28 +7.7%0.0%7.1%31 1.6 96.7% Moonlight Basin 41 -43.1%34.5%78.0%38 1.6 96.7% Spanish Peaks Mtn. Club 29 -25.6%30.9%44.8%59 2.6 98.9% Deer Lodge County 146 +19.7%0.0%0.0%164 2.6 98.9% Butte 615 +20.6%4.5%6.5%634 0.7 98.9% Silver Bow County 644 +20.4%4.3%6.2%682 0.7 98.9% Gallatin County 2,742 -7.6%16.7%40.6%2,892 0.7 100.5% Area Overviews Current as of January 10, 2022. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2021 ShowingTime. | 8 2021 Annual Report for Gallatin County 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Change From 2020 Change From 2017 Beaverhead County $190,250 $176,000 $170,000 $205,000 $291,000 + 42.0%+ 53.0% Belgrade $269,000 $289,950 $319,900 $341,150 $469,500 + 37.6%+ 74.5% Big Sky Meadow Village $425,000 $525,500 $506,000 $749,500 $915,000 + 22.1%+ 115.3% Big Sky Mountain $288,000 $570,000 $517,000 $750,000 $957,000 + 27.6%+ 232.3% Bozeman Areas Outside City Limits $425,000 $465,000 $506,500 $625,000 $779,500 + 24.7%+ 83.4% Bozeman City Limits $329,825 $375,000 $399,900 $420,000 $560,000 + 33.3%+ 69.8% Bozeman Main to Kagy $429,000 $451,450 $458,600 $445,000 $675,000 + 51.7%+ 57.3% Bozeman North of Main / East of 19th $427,500 $479,000 $495,000 $556,445 $689,000 + 23.8%+ 61.2% Bozeman North of Main / West of 19th $309,981 $340,000 $365,000 $389,500 $501,000 + 28.6%+ 61.6% Bozeman South of Kagy $423,300 $497,000 $482,500 $585,000 $724,000 + 23.8%+ 71.0% Broadwater County $269,000 $277,450 $307,500 $346,758 $439,500 + 26.7%+ 63.4% Greater Big Sky $517,000 $690,000 $699,000 $1,096,550 $1,200,000 + 9.4%+ 132.1% Greater Manhattan $292,000 $379,000 $408,000 $519,000 $600,000 + 15.6%+ 105.5% Greater Three Forks $239,900 $234,000 $282,000 $303,750 $435,000 + 43.2%+ 81.3% Jefferson County $189,000 $265,950 $220,000 $285,000 $367,500 + 28.9%+ 94.4% Livingston City Limits $215,671 $254,850 $284,000 $300,000 $369,000 + 23.0%+ 71.1% Madison County $244,250 $299,000 $320,000 $377,000 $495,000 + 31.3%+ 102.7% Park County $247,500 $274,000 $296,500 $325,000 $399,999 + 23.1%+ 61.6% Sweet Grass County $189,750 $237,500 $189,500 $225,000 $400,000 + 77.8%+ 110.8% West Yellowstone $307,000 $335,000 $386,000 $424,500 $537,250 + 26.6%+ 75.0% Moonlight Basin $1,187,500 $1,392,405 $1,925,000 $2,197,500 $3,000,000 + 36.5%+ 152.6% Spanish Peaks Mtn. Club $2,445,500 $2,560,500 $3,400,000 $3,375,000 $4,300,000 + 27.4%+ 75.8% Deer Lodge County $111,250 $128,000 $145,000 $155,500 $166,500 + 7.1%+ 49.7% Butte $130,500 $153,100 $150,000 $180,000 $205,000 + 13.9%+ 57.1% Silver Bow County $131,000 $154,000 $151,000 $185,000 $209,875 + 13.4%+ 60.2% Gallatin County $331,000 $372,750 $396,000 $439,900 $599,000 + 36.2%+ 81.0% Area Historical Median Prices Current as of January 10, 2022. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2021 ShowingTime. | 9 2021 Annual Report for Gallatin County