HomeMy WebLinkAboutBuffalo Run TIS 07-28-2020
2880 Technology Boulevard West • Bozeman, MT 59718
(406) 587-0721 • www.m-m.net
Traffic Impact Study
Buffalo Run Site Development
Bozeman, Gallatin County, Montana July 2020
Prepared For:
Yellowstone Investment Group, PLLC PO Box 697 Evergreen, CO 80437 MMI Project No. 6475.002.00
Traffic Impact Study
Buffalo Run Site Development | Bozeman, Montana
Table of Contents | i
Table of Contents
Purpose of Report and Study Objectives ................................... 1
Proposed Development ........................ 1
Development Description ................................ 1
Development Horizon ...................................... 1
Existing Area Conditions ...................... 4
Study Area ...................................................... 4
Area of Influence.................................... 4
Study Area Land Use ............................. 4
Transportation Network ................................... 4
Study Area Roadway ............................. 4
Fowler Lane .............................................. 4
Study Area Intersections ........................ 6
South 27th Avenue & Kurk Drive .............. 6
Fowler Lane & Blackwood Road ............... 6
Existing Study Area
Transportation System ........................... 7
Traffic Volumes ...................................... 7
South 27th Avenue & Kurk Drive .............. 8
Fowler Lane & Blackwood Road ............... 9
Estimated 2020 Existing Traffic Volumes .. 9
Pedestrians & Bicyclists ......................... 9
Transit Service ....................................... 9
Projected Traffic.................................... 9
Subdivision Traffic .......................................... 9
Development Trip Generation ................ 9
Development Trip Distribution .............. 11
Trip Assignment ................................... 12
Pedestrians & Bicyclists ................................ 12
Transit Service.............................................. 12
Non-Site Traffic............................................. 12
Method of Projection ............................ 12
Total Traffic .................................................. 16
Transportation Analyses .................... 16
Methodologies .............................................. 16
Study Scenarios ................................... 16
Analysis Methodologies ....................... 16
Two-Way Stop-Controlled (TWSC) Intersections .............................. 18
All-Way Stop-Controlled (AWSC) Intersections .............................. 18
Capacity & Level of Service Analyses ........... 18
Findings ............................................... 18
Need for Any Improvements ......................... 18
Pedestrians & Bicyclists ................................ 22
Transit Service.............................................. 22
Conclusions & Recommendations ... 22
Interior Roadways & Intersections ................ 22
Pedestrian & Bicyclist Connectivity ............... 23
Traffic Control Guidance ............................... 23
References ........................................... 24
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Buffalo Run Site Development | Bozeman, Montana
ii | Appendices
Appendices
Appendix A
Level of Service Concepts, Analysis Methodologies, & Standards of Significance
Appendix B
Trip Generation Analyses
Appendix C
Capacity & Level of Service Analyses
C-1: Estimated 2020 Current Daily Traffic
C-2: Estimated 2025 Background Traffic
C-3: Estimated 2025 Total Traffic
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List of Figures & Tables | iii
List of Figures
Figure 1: Proposed Development Location ....................................................................................... 2
Figure 2: Proposed Site Layout .......................................................................................................... 3
Figure 3: Existing Study Area Intersections Traffic Control ............................................................. 7
Figure 4: Estimated Current Daily Traffic ......................................................................................... 11
Figure 5: Primary Trip Distribution ................................................................................................... 12
Figure 6: Buffalo Run Site Development Traffic Assignment ......................................................... 14
Figure 7: Estimated 2025 Background Traffic ................................................................................. 15
Figure 8: Estimated 2025 Total Traffic.............................................................................................. 17
Figure 9: Traffic Operations Summary for Estimated 2020 Current Daily Traffic .......................... 19
Figure 10: Traffic Operations Summary for Estimated 2025 Background Traffic ......................... 20
Figure 11: Traffic Operations Summary for Estimated 2025 Total Traffic ..................................... 21
List of Tables
Table 1: Estimated Trip Generation Summary for Meadow Creek Subdivision Lots Contributing to South 27th Avenue & Kurk Drive.............................................................................. 8
Table 2: Estimated Buffalo Run Site Development Trip Generation Summary ............................. 11
Traffic Impact Study
for
Buffalo Run Site Development
Bozeman, Gallatin County, Montana
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Purpose of Report and Study Objectives
This traffic impact study summarizes the potential impacts from the proposed Buffalo Run site
development to be located in Bozeman, Gallatin County, Montana. The information presented in this
report is intended to evaluate the safety and operational aspects of the area transportation system,
providing guidance with respect to its short- and long term function, under existing conditions as well as
with estimated impacts from the proposed development.
Proposed Development
Development Description
The proposed Buffalo Run site development is to be located in Bozeman, Gallatin County, Montana on
the north half of the southwest quarter of the southwest quarter of Section 23, Township 2 South,
Range 5 East, Principal Meridian of Montana. Generally, the property is bordered by Fowler Lane to the
west, portions of Meadow Creek Subdivision to the east, and agricultural lands to the north and south.
The development location is depicted in Figure 1 on the following page. The proposed site layout is shown
in Figure 2 on page 3.
The proposed project is to include 288 residential condominium units and a community building that is
for the private use of residents and their invited guests. The proposed Buffalo Run site development is
estimated to generate a total of 2,138 average weekday trips as well as 130 and 151 trips during the
average weekday AM and PM peak hours, respectively. Access to and from the proposed development
include connections to Kurk Drive and South 31st Avenue.
Development Horizon
Full build-out and occupancy of the proposed development is estimated to occur over the course of the
next five (5) years based on current development trends in the area and the size of the proposed project.
Therefore, this study will assess any impacts the developments may have on the area transportation
system through the year 2025.
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Figure 1: Proposed Development Location
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Figure 2: Proposed Site Layout
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Existing Area Conditions
Study Area
Area of Influence
The transportation impacts from a development are largely dependent on its location and size as well as
the characteristics of the surrounding transportation system. The significant impacts to the adjacent
transportation system will generally be within a limited area from the site. The proposed Buffalo Run
residential condominium project is not significantly large in size from a traffic generation standpoint,
having fewer than 200 estimated trips during both the weekday AM and PM peak hours. Therefore, it is
not anticipated that the development would have significant impacts beyond the proposed site accesses
and key intersections within proximity to the proposed project.
Study Area Land Use
Presently, the proposed site is a single-family residence with some agricultural use. As stated previously,
the property is bordered by Fowler Lane to the west, portions of Meadow Creek Subdivision to the east,
and agricultural lands to the north and south. Across Fowler Lane to the west from the proposed
development is existing agricultural land.
Transportation Network
The study area focuses on key intersections in the vicinity (within ½ mile of the site) of the proposed
development. The traffic study analyzed the intersection of Fowler Lane & Blackwood Road because it
is a key intersection within ½ mile. It should be noted, the current plan does not contemplate connecting
to Fowler. The roadways and intersections included within this traffic impact study update are noted
below:
Study Area Roadway
Fowler Lane
Within the project study area, Fowler Lane is classified as a minor arterial roadway by the Bozeman
Transportation Master Plan dated April 25, 2017 that was prepared by Robert Peccia & Associates and
Alta Planning + Design. Presently, the segment adjacent to the proposed Buffalo Run site development
is currently a two-lane, gravel roadway. It has a surface width of approximately 24 feet, which includes a
single travel lane in each direction, northbound and southbound. The roadway links South 19th Road to
the south and Stucky Road to the north. The posted speed limit on Fowler Lane within the study area is
35 mph.
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Study Area Intersections
South 27th Avenue & Kurk Drive
Fowler Lane & Blackwood Road
South 27th Avenue & Kurk Drive
The existing intersection of South 27th Avenue and Kurk Drive has the characteristics described in the
following:
All-Way Stop-Controlled Intersection
Southbound (from the north) approach only includes the east half of the full collector roadway width for South 27th Avenue due to right-of-way constraints. The west half of the roadway may be completed in the future as development occurs adjacent to that segment.
Eastbound Approach (From the West) – (1) Left / Through / Right Turn Lane
Existing Available Queue Storage = ±150 ft (Measured to South 28th Avenue)
Westbound Approach (From the East) – (1) Left / Through / Right Turn Lane
Existing Available Queue Storage = ±100 ft (Measured to South 26th Avenue)
Northbound Approach (From the South) – (1) Left and (1) Through / Right Turn Lane
Existing Left Turn Lane Available Queue Storage = ±100 ft
Existing Through / Right Turn Lane Queue Storage = ±700 ft (Measured to Meah Lane)
Southbound Approach (From the North) – (1) Left / Through / Right Turn Lane
Existing Available Queue Storage = ±860 ft (Measured to Golden Sun Drive)
Fowler Lane & Blackwood Road
The intersection of Fowler Lane and Blackwood Road has the following characteristics:
Stop-Controlled, T-Intersection
Stop-Control on the Eastbound (From the West), Blackwood Road Approach
Eastbound Approach (From the West) – (1) Left / Right Turn Lane
Existing Available Queue Storage = ±100 ft (Measured to Driveway on North Side of Blackwood Road)
Northbound Approach (From the South) – (1) Through / Left Turn Lane
Existing Available Queue Storage = ±300 ft (Measured to Driveway on East Side of Fowler Lane)
Southbound Approach (From the North) – (1) Through / Right Turn Lane
Existing Available Queue Storage = ±575 ft (Measured to Driveway on East Side of Fowler Lane)
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Existing Study Area Transportation System
The existing study area roadways and intersections described above are shown in Figure 3 below.
Included within the figure is the existing traffic control at each of the study area intersections as well as
the traffic lane configurations.
Figure 3: Existing Study Area Intersections Traffic Control
Traffic Volumes
Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, reliable counts of existing traffic volumes
within the study area were not able to be obtained at the time of this study. Therefore, traffic data for the
study area intersections were developed through vehicle trip generation projections and previous traffic
modeling efforts. Specifically, estimated existing traffic volumes were developed for the study area
intersections as described in the following sections.
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South 27th Avenue & Kurk Drive
Due to the arrangement of streets within Meadow Creek Subdivision and limited access to South 19th
Avenue, a total of 109 dwelling units that included the following blocks and lots within Meadow Creek
Subdivision, Phases 1, 1A, and 1B were estimated to contribute vehicular traffic to the intersection of
South 27th Avenue and Kurk Drive:
Block 9 | Lots 13 and 22-33 Block 12 | Lots 1-14
Block 10 | Lots 1-6, 7B, 8B, 9B, 10B-1, 11A-1, and 12-26 Block 13 | Lots 1-16
Block 11 | Lots 1-16 Block 14 | Lots 1-22
For the existing intersection of South 27th Avenue and Kurk Drive, estimated existing traffic data was
derived from trip generation estimates for the lots noted above within Meadow Creek Subdivision using
trip generation rates found in Trip Generation, 10th Edition published by the Institute of Transportation
Engineers (ITE). Average vehicle trip ends (Trip ends are defined as a single or one-directional travel
movement with either the origin or the destination of the trip inside the study site.) were estimated based
on dwelling units using Land Use Code 210 – Single-Family Detached Housing and Land Use Code 220
– Multifamily Housing : Low-Rise. The total estimated trip generation for the proposed development is
provided in Table 1 below. Analyses are summarized in Appendix B.
Table 1: Estimated Trip Generation Summary for Meadow Creek Subdivision Lots Contributing to South 27th Avenue & Kurk Drive
Land Use Units Average Weekday Trips Average Weekday, AM Peak Hour Trips Average Weekday, PM Peak Hour Trips
Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total
Single-Family Detached Housing 106 549 549 1,098 20 60 80 67 40 107
Multifamily Housing: Low-Rise (Condominium / Townhouse) 3 11 11 22 0 2 2 1 1 2
Totals 109 560 560 1,120 20 62 82 68 41 109
Units = Dwelling Units
Each of the lots within Meadow Creek Subdivision included as part of the analyses are projected to utilize
South 27th Avenue and Kurk Drive for access to South 19th Avenue. Based on their location, each lot
was modeled on the transportation network within Meadow Creek Subdivision in the study area to arrive
at estimated average weekday traffic volumes for the intersection of South 27th Avenue and Kurk Drive
for the AM and PM peak hours.
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Fowler Lane & Blackwood Road
Estimated existing traffic data for the intersection of Fowler Lane and Blackwood Road was derived from
modeling completed as part of the Transportation Planning Study for South 27th Avenue & the Montana
State University Innovation Campus prepared by Morrison-Maierle in June 2014. This data was derived
from historic traffic counts and modeling completed as part of previous Bozeman area transportation
planning efforts. To arrive at estimated 2020 traffic volumes for the average weekday, AM and PM peak
hours estimated average annual traffic growth rate (AGR) percentages were applied to the model
volumes as follows:
Fowler Lane | Estimated AGR = 14% (Estimated due to short timeframe and recent subdivision development in the area.)
Blackwood Road | Estimated AGR = 2%
Estimated 2020 Existing Traffic Volumes
The estimated 2020 existing turning movement volumes at the study area intersections are summarized
in Figure 4 on the following page.
Pedestrians & Bicyclists
Within the study area, there are no specific facilities for pedestrians or bicyclists along Fowler Lane. There
are existing sidewalks within Meadow Creek Subdivision for use by pedestrians. There are no specific
facilities for bicyclists within the study area portions of Meadow Creek Subdivision at this time.
Transit Service
Streamline transit service is currently free for all passengers, which creates an incentive for transit
ridership. Streamline does not currently offer any routes that provide service within close vicinity or
adjacent to the proposed Buffalo Run site development.
Projected Traffic
Subdivision Traffic
Development Trip Generation
Trip generation rates found in Trip Generation, 10th Edition were also used for estimating Buffalo Run
site development traffic. Average vehicle trip ends were estimated based on dwelling units using Land
Use Code 220 – Multifamily Housing : Low-Rise. The total estimated trip generation for the proposed
development is provided in Table 2 on page 11. Analyses are summarized in Appendix B.
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Figure 4: Estimated Current Daily Traffic
Table 2: Estimated Buffalo Run Site Development Trip Generation Summary
Land Use Units Average Weekday Trips Average Weekday, AM Peak Hour Trips Average Weekday, PM Peak Hour Trips
Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total
Multifamily Housing: Low-Rise (Residential Condominium) 288 1,069 1,069 2,138 30 100 130 95 56 151
Units = Dwelling Units
Development Trip Distribution
Trip distribution is the process of identifying the probable destinations, directions, and traffic routes that
development related traffic will likely affect. Various methods are available for estimating trip distribution,
including the analogy, trip distribution model, area of influence, origin-destination (O-D), and surrogate
data methods. This study utilizes the O-D method. Considering the existing transportation network, it is
anticipated that drivers will primarily utilize Kurk Drive and South 27th Avenue to access South 19th
Avenue. This is reflected in the trip distribution for the proposed development shown in Figure 5 below.
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Figure 5: Primary Trip Distribution
Trip Assignment
The assignment of development related traffic provides the information necessary to determine the level
of site related impacts to the area roadway system and intersections. It involves determining the volume
of traffic and its movements within the transportation system. At a minimum, trip assignment must also
consider route choice, how the existing transportation system functions, and travel times to and from the
site. The resulting traffic assignment at the study area intersections for the Buffalo Run site development
is shown in Figure 6 on the following page.
Pedestrians & Bicyclists
Boulevard style sidewalks are proposed to be included on both sides of interior roadways as well as
sidewalks adjacent to the curb where angle or perpendicular parking is included within Buffalo Run.
These improvements would link to the sidewalk network on the adjacent street system in Meadow Creek
Subdivision. Other than provisions for bicycle parking as required by the City of Bozeman, no other
specific facilities for bicyclists are currently proposed.
Transit Service
No specific improvements are proposed with the Buffalo Run development for transit service.
Non-Site Traffic
Method of Projection
In order to more accurately reflect the potential impacts from development generated traffic it is necessary
to develop an estimate of non-site related traffic growth during the analysis period. Three primary means
are typically used to estimate growth of non-site generated traffic, including the build-up method, the use
of transportation plans or models, as well as the trends or growth rate method.
The build-up method takes into account traffic growth due to approved or anticipated to be approved
developments in the study area. Transportation plans or models typically provide estimates for traffic
volumes for approximately 20 years into the future. The trends or growth rate method involves evaluating
the historic traffic growth rates within a study area. The underlying assumption with this method is that
historic growth trends will remain approximately the same and continue in the future. Estimated
background traffic volumes for the year 2025 were established by using the trends or growth rate method.
No significant traffic growth is estimated within Meadow Creek Subdivision. Traffic growth estimates on
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Fowler Lane and Blackwood Road utilized AGR values of fourteen percent (14%) and five percent (5%),
respectively. The estimated 2025 background traffic volumes are shown in Figure 7 on page 15.
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Figure 6: Buffalo Run Site Development Traffic Assignment
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Figure 7: Estimated 2025 Background Traffic
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Total Traffic
Vehicular traffic generated from the proposed Buffalo Run site development was combined with
estimated 2025 background traffic volumes to arrive at the estimated 2025 total traffic volumes evaluated
as a part of this study, which are shown in Figure 8 on the following page.
Transportation Analyses
Methodologies
This section documents the methodologies and assumptions used to conduct the traffic impact analyses
for the Buffalo Run site development. Study methodology and analyses are based on ITE’s
Recommended Practices for Transportation Impact Analyses for Site Development. These analyses are
used to determine the project’s conformance with City of Bozeman, Gallatin County, and Montana
Department of Transportation (MDT) policies and evaluate whether the proposed development’s impacts
are perceptible to the average driver.
Study Scenarios
This study presents analyses of the following scenarios:
Estimated Existing Conditions
Estimated 2025 Background Traffic
Estimated 2025 Total Traffic
Analysis Methodologies
Transportation system operating conditions are typically described in terms of “level of service”. Level of
service (LOS) is the performance measure used to evaluate the cumulative effects of such things as
travel speed, traffic volumes, roadway and intersection capacity, travel delay, and traffic interruptions.
Operating conditions are designated as LOS A through LOS F, which represents the most favorable to
the least favorable operating conditions.
Level of service for intersections is determined by control delay. Control delay is defined as the total
elapsed time from when a vehicle stops at the end of a queue to the time the vehicle departs from the
stop line. The total elapsed time includes the time required for the vehicle to travel from the last-in-queue
position to the first-in-queue position, including deceleration of vehicles from the free flow speed to the
speed of vehicles in the queue. Appendix A lists the delay/LOS criteria listed in the Highway Capacity
Manual, 6th Edition | A Guide for Multimodal Mobility Analysis (HCM) published by the Transportation
Research Board (TRB) for unsignalized intersections.
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Figure 8: Estimated 2025 Total Traffic
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Two-Way Stop-Controlled (TWSC) Intersections
Two-way stop-controlled (TWSC) intersection capacity and level of service analyses were performed
using HCS TWSC Version 7.4 developed and maintained by the McTrans Center at the University of
Florida. TWSC intersection analyses are based on Chapter 20 of the HCM. The HCM methodology for
evaluating TWSC intersections is based on gap acceptance and conflicting traffic for vehicles stopped
on the minor street approaches. The critical gap (or minimum acceptable gap) is defined as the minimum
time interval in the major street traffic stream that allows entry for one minor street vehicle. Average
control delay and LOS for the “worst approach” are reported. LOS is not defined for the whole intersection.
All-Way Stop-Controlled (AWSC) Intersections
All-way stop-controlled (AWSC) intersection capacity and level of service analyses were performed using
HCS AWSC Version 7.4 also developed and maintained by the McTrans Center. AWSC intersection
analyses are based on Chapter 21 of the HCM. The HCM methodology for evaluating AWSC
intersections is based on traffic conditions on each of the approaches to the intersection as well as driver
perception and consensus. Average control delay and LOS for each approach and the whole intersection
are reported.
Capacity & Level of Service Analyses
Capacity and level of service analyses were performed for the study area intersections for each of the
study scenarios. Detailed results of the analyses are provided in Appendix C and are summarized in the
following figures:
Figure 9: Traffic Operations Summary for Estimated 2020 Current Daily Traffic – Page 19
Figure 10: Traffic Operations Summary for Estimated 2025 Background Traffic – Page 20
Figure 11: Traffic Operations Summary for Estimated 2025 Total Traffic – Page 21
Findings
Need for Any Improvements
Capacity and level of service analyses for traffic conditions based on estimated 2020 existing, 2025
background, and 2025 total traffic conditions identified that each of the study area intersections is
projected to function at LOS A for both the weekday, AM and PM peak periods. Therefore, no additional
improvements are necessary to mitigate projected traffic operations with the development of the
proposed Buffalo Run site development.
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Figure 9: Traffic Operations Summary for Estimated 2020 Current Daily Traffic
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Figure 10: Traffic Operations Summary for Estimated 2025 Background Traffic
PROJECT
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engineerssurveyorsplannersscientists
2880 Technology Boulevard West
Bozeman, MT 59718
Phone: (406) 587-0721
Fax: (406) 922-6702
FIG. 11:ESTIMATED 2020 TOTAL TRAFFIC LOS
SCALE:1" = 500'
WEEKDAY PM
PEAK HOUR
APPROACH LOS
A
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LEGEND
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WEEKDAY AM
PEAK HOUR
APPROACH LOS
A A
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A
A
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Pedestrians & Bicyclists
Within the study area, there are no specific facilities for pedestrians or bicyclists along Fowler Lane. There
are existing sidewalks within Meadow Creek Subdivision for use by pedestrians. There are no specific
facilities for bicyclists within the study area portions of Meadow Creek Subdivision at this time.
Boulevard style sidewalks are proposed to be included on both sides of interior roadways as well as
sidewalks adjacent to the curb where angle or perpendicular parking is included within Buffalo Run.
These improvements would link to the sidewalk network on the adjacent street system in Meadow Creek
Subdivision. Other than provisions for bicycle parking as required by the City of Bozeman, no other
specific facilities for bicyclists are currently proposed.
Transit Service
Streamline transit service is currently free for all passengers, which creates an incentive for transit
ridership. Streamline does not currently offer any routes that provide service within close vicinity or
adjacent to the proposed Buffalo Run site development. No specific improvements are proposed with the
Buffalo Run site development for transit service.
Conclusions & Recommendations
Analysis of trip generation estimates, site circulation, and traffic operations reveal that the proposed
Buffalo Run site development is projected to have limited impact on the area transportation system as
currently proposed through the Bozeman Transportation Master Plan. If the below improvements are
implemented as recommended, any impacts resulting from the proposed development should operate
safely and efficiently. All traffic control improvements should be installed in accordance with City of
Bozeman and the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices standards.
Interior Roadways & Intersections
Driveways should be installed in accordance with the City of Bozeman’s design standards.
Driveways and internal drive aisles need to be designed for the appropriate vehicles that may access the facility, including emergency and solid waste vehicles.
Adequate sight distance must be preserved at driveways, internal intersections, and crosswalks for driver, pedestrian, and bicyclist safety in accordance with City of Bozeman and American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) standards.
Stop control should be installed on the westbound site approaches at their intersection with Fowler Lane.
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Pedestrian & Bicyclist Connectivity
Sidewalk and/or trail improvements should be constructed to City of Bozeman standards, at a minimum.
Traffic Control Guidance
All traffic control improvements should be installed in accordance with Montana Department of Transportation, City of Bozeman, and the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices standards.
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References
1. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. (2011). A Policy on Geometric
Design of Highways and Streets. Washington, DC: Author.
2. Institute of Transportation Engineers. (2005). Transportation Impact Analyses for Site
Development: An ITE Proposed Recommended Practice. Washington, DC: Author.
3. Institute of Transportation Engineers. (September 2017). Trip Generation, 10th Edition.
Washington, DC: Author.
4. Institute of Transportation Engineers. (June 2004). Trip Generation Handbook: An ITE
Recommended Practice. Washington, DC: Author.
5. Morrison-Maierle. (June 2014). Transportation Planning Study: South 27th Avenue and the
Montana State University Innovation Campus. Bozeman, MT: Author.
6. Robert Peccia & Associates and Alta Planning + Design. (April 25, 2017). Bozeman Transportation
Master Plan. Bozeman, MT: City of Bozeman.
7. Transportation Research Board. (2016). Highway Capacity Manual, 6th Edition: A Guide for
Multimodal Mobility Analysis. Washington, DC: Author.
8. United States Department of Transportation – Federal Highway Administration. (May 2012).
Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices for Streets and Highways, 2009 Edition with Revision
Numbers 1 and 2. Washington DC: Author.