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HomeMy WebLinkAbout11-05-20 Public Comment - L. Kirk - gallatin county COVID comments Enviromin, Inc. 524 Professional Drive Bozeman, MT 59718 406-581-8261 www.enviromininc.com 5 November 2020 Mr. Matt Kelley, Health Officer Gallatin City-County Health Board Bozeman MT 59715 Dear Mr. Kelley and members of the Board: Thank you for the invitation to comment on the proposed limits to reduce the spread of coronavirus in the Gallatin Valley. I live in the county at 29 Aspenwood Drive, and run a biogeochemistry laboratory at 524 Professional Drive in Bozeman. By limiting the size of group gatherings, limiting patron capacity in bars, restaurants and other high risk settings such as gyms, and changing closing times by 2.5 hours, you will certainly accomplish some reduction in exposure while minimizing opposition to public health initiatives. This is clearly a politically measured proposal, but do you really think it will accomplish sufficient reduction in cases before the escalating growth overwhelms our public health resources? The Gallatin City-County Health Department is right to be frightened by the exponential growth in cases over the past 6 weeks, during which time the 7-day average has skyrocketed from 6.9 cases per day to a shocking 110.9 cases per day on Nov 2. Six of the 10 deaths in our county have occurred in the past 3 weeks. Testing and tracing resources are already so overwhelmed that the hotline is advising individuals who are symptomatic - in a community with widespread transmission - to forego testing if they do not know that they have been directly exposed. For example, one of our employees was told not to test 10 days ago, because she was not aware (yet) that she had been exposed through her husband’s workplace. She did not learn of the outbreak at that company until days later. She was not told to quarantine. She thus returned to her work with persistent symptoms consistent with coronavirus, where she exposed other members of our staff before we identified the problem and sent her for testing and quarantine. We are told we will now have to wait 7 to 10 days for results that potentially affect 5 other individuals. If she had gone for testing 10 days ago, we would now know how to manage this possible exposure. I only just now, a day later, received a call from Sheryl in your department. In fact, by taking her call I missed your deadline by 20 minutes – I hope you will consider my thoughts regardless. Grown adults are having public temper tantrums when they are expected to wear a mask as required under Montana’s mask mandate, even at the hospital, and the lack of enforcement has only enabled more of the same immature behavior. By all measures, things are indeed spiraling out of control and we all need help. I took the time to plot the 7-day averages reported for the period from September 16 to November 2, and fit an exponential function to the data that have been reported. Figure 1, based on the data you have reported, show that we are very close to much more rapid escalation in case numbers, which will quickly increase hospitalizations and sadly, deaths in our community. The orange line shows that it is indeed time to act in a big way. I have some questions: 1. What change in rising cases do you anticipate can result from your proposed action? How much will these measures reduce exposures? by 10%? Gallatin City-County Public Health Department 5 November 2020 Enviromin 5 November 2020 | Page 2 20%? With rampant community transmission, is seems unlikely that more than 20% reduction will be achieved. The purple line in Figure 1 projects daily cases based on an assumed 20% reduction in the rate of case growth. While better than nothing, this strategy will still leave us with hundreds of additional daily cases than we have now as we celebrate Thanksgiving and send MSU students home to their families. 2. What metrics will you use to assess the success of this proposal? On what timeline will you determine whether additional restrictions are needed? 3. The proposed new rules might be more useful if the Mask Mandate was effectively enforced at the same time. There is essentially NO enforcement of this rule at present. How do you propose to enforce these new rules? Will this be an enforced public mandate or merely another recommendation? 4. Would it not be more helpful to consider a full shutdown for a limited period of time, to allow for a substantial reduction in case numbers and growth? We observed better than 90% reduction in cases during the March shutdown. Governments all over the world are acting now to do this – and no one likes it much there either. One full month would be ideal, but even 3 weeks – until Thanksgiving when MSU students will leave for home and we all hope to have some semblance of a holiday – would be a much more meaningful strategy to suppress this growth in cases as we head into the year-end holiday season. I have also projected cases under an assumed 80% reduction in cases, which would vastly improve our outlook (see the yellow line). 5. Do you think this plan is perhaps a bit too little, and a bit too late, given the rapid and exponential growth in cases? As a microbiologist, I can tell you that it will take a major step change to significantly alter the exponential growth in cases we are experiencing. Yes, our nation promises “liberty AND justice for all.” There is nothing just about uncontrolled spread of this virus as a result of those who demand their freedoms. We have seen all too well – across the world - what political solutions to public health management of COVID produce. I strongly encourage the board to immediately enforce the mask mandate and initiate a full shutdown. Anything less will result in unnecessary contagion and death. Thank you for your attention. Dr. Lisa Kirk, Principal Biogeochemist Gallatin City-County Public Health Department 5 November 2020 Enviromin 5 November 2020 | Page 3 Figure 1. Model of Case Growth and Possible Reduction y = 11.003e0.0502x R² = 0.9306 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 20 40 60 80 100 1207-day avg Daily No. CasesDays after September 16 2020 Gallatin County 7-day average Coronavirus cases after 9/16 to present, projecting to Christmas 2020 reported projected with 20% reduction 11/5 with 80% reduction Expon. (reported) Nov 2 Thanksgiving Day 198 cases Christmas Day 1665 cases Thanksgiving Day 408 cases Christmas Day 610 cases