HomeMy WebLinkAbout03-26-20 Public Comment - K. Stoops - Why aren't we on lockdown_From:Chris Mehl
To:Agenda
Subject:FW: Why aren"t we on lockdown?
Date:Wednesday, March 25, 2020 7:41:17 PM
Chris Mehl
Mayor, City of Bozemancmehl@bozeman.net406.581.4992________________________________________From: webadmin@bozeman.net [webadmin@bozeman.net]Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2020 7:27 PMTo: Chris MehlSubject: Why aren't we on lockdown?
Message submitted from the <City Of Bozeman> website.
Site Visitor Name: Kira StoopsSite Visitor Email: kirastoops@gmail.com
There are 85 staffed hospital beds at Bozeman Deaconess.
Coronavirus has an infection rate of 20-40% of the population.
And a hospitalization rate of 20% of those infected.
So at the most conservative end...if 20% of Gallatin County's 108,000 residents get this, that's 21,600 infectees.
And if 20% of them are hospitalized, that's 4,320 hospitalized people.
Right now, this is expected to peak and die out over the next few months.
Conservatively again...that's about 1000 people needing hospitalization every month...with 85 beds. If everyone'sthere for about 2 weeks, then it's 500 people competing for 85 staffed beds.
Of course, viruses don't evenly space their cases like that...the hospitalizations will glom up together, painting amuch worse picture. And of course, there's all the other non-corona hospitalizations, too.
At that point, even if we bolster our resources, we'll get to make some hard choices about who gets any care, right?Like...most of us won't. When that scenario unfolded in Italy, the fatality rate shot up to 9%. That's about 10kGallatin County residents.
Even if we just look at your voter base here in Bozeman...there are 46,000 Bozemanites, and at the world averagedeath rate of 4%, that would be 1840 Bozemanites corking off.
My understanding is that our best chance of avoiding this scenario isn't just closing businesses and schools (whichI'm glad we've done!) but going into lockdown to prevent rapid transmission, space the cases out more evenly, andallow time for resources to mobilize.
Given all that, I'm hoping you can explain to me, and every other resident of Bozeman, why we aren't on lockdownnow? I personally am...but it only works if we all do it, right?--
Kira Stoops
406.600.4117