HomeMy WebLinkAboutPape plan commentsWhere we are now:A vast number poorly-educated "educated" people elect a similarly under-educated slew of politicalrepresentatives who, whether through action, inaction, or appointment will not, in any way fulfill their sworn,fiduciary duty to act in service of the needs of their entire constituency. This interdependent pairing ofmisbegotten electeds and their electors "religiously" choose arbitrary or adjacent belief to any actualknowledge. As such, we have become a nation governed by those who cannot be reasoned with because theycannot reason and who were in turn elected by those who have abdicated their right to actually know.Jerry Pape
Bozeman City Plaiiiiing BoardCommentary on the Growth PolicyTuesday, October 15,2019[A very rough draft]A proper Growth Policy is meant to address aU aspects of municipal growth or lack thereof, in aresponsive, dynamic way. The document should be the parent document to any other document used inthe governance of the municipality.The general structure of such a responsive document should be:Intentions - Wliat we want for die comnumityIntentions shoiild address both concerns of the day, concerns on the horizon, and concerns foreseeable,and otherwise for the length of the plan.Metrics - Wliat we wUl ineasiire to track progress or regress in die acconiplishment of dieIntentionsEvery intention should be measured by at least one metric and thereby comprise at least as many metricsas there are intentions.Targets - Tlie muneric goal; or die acceptable nuiuina & maxuna for an IntentionWhile the establishment of some targets may require significant metrics collection, it is crucial toremember that it is difficult to hit a target that doesn't exist. In contrast, certain targets are rapidlycalculable, for example, if we know that our budget is $ 180M, we know that we need to derive thisnumber in the form of property taxes, grants, and fees. In addition, as budgets are yearly, but a GrowthPlan has a much longer horizon, we must look toward reserves and capital improvement projects over alonger period. There are two essential factors, thai can grow or shrink, in Growth Policy:1) Tax Base2) TaxesBecause there are limits on how much a city can tax its citizens, it is paramount to prioritize control andpredicdvity, where possible, of the growth or shrinkage of the tax base.Historically, Bozeman has generated aspirational Growth Policies (the list of things we wanted, but thatwe rarely grounded in financial reality) that have little connection to the functional minima needed for thetown lo thrive. In fact, there is no mention of either Tax-Base or Tax-Based Thinking in this or pastGrowth Policies; and given that the whole town mns on Property Taxes this is a gross inadequacy of thedocument.Bozeman City Planniftg BoardVery Rough DraftPage 1 of 3
Let us consider a hypothetical simation wherein a Tax Base Growth minima must exist and that minima is2.85% growth of the tax base per annum. N.B. This is not analogous to population increase, because notaJl population increases result in increased direct tax payers. In our hypothetical simation, if our growthfalls below this number for a significant period of time (such as an economic correction/recession) it islikely that we wiU have to raise taxes to meet our future financial obligations. Conversely, if the Tax BaseGrowth exceeds this number, it might be possible to reduce various taxes and fees, such as impact fees.This is especially tme if the right type of growth occurs (business/commercial vs pure residential). Withreasonable extrapolation, it should be easy to see that an influx of 350 $45-65K+ per year incomeearners (i.e. Billings Clinic), buying salary-proportional housing could be very beneficial to the tax basecompared to an additional 350 people commuting to or renting in Bozeman every day. Not to mentionthe overall tax base impact of the employer's facilities.Further, it should be noted that as the Economic Development Policy is meant to be a primary driver ofsustainable tax base growth, Econ Dev policies must align with Growth Policy Intentions and Targets.Today, we have shaped a somewhat more intentional growth policy, and though we have developedmdimentary metrics, our plan lacks Targets, Alternatives, and Impact Analysis.Altemadves— Wliat we wiU do if the targets are not met in some fracdoii of die Growdi Policy'sapplicability periodIf within a reasonable timeframe it appears that an intention is not likely to meet its target then the planmust contain one or more alternatives that can be tried in order to get the Intention back on track. Usingthe aforementioned example, what do we if the Tax Base Growth fell lo .5% per annum? Once ourreserves were spent, how would we meet our continued maintenance obligations and cost increases forCity Services to maintain our deified Quality of Living?Impact Aiialysis—Tlie facts about the potential costs aiid logistical impacts that om- proposed plaiiwill cause diat are owed to die citizensThe Growth Policy is a quasi-legislarive document that is lied directly to municipal code, in this casethrough the obligation to create the UDC with direct accountability lo the Growth Policy. As such, wemust carefully consider the short and long-term impacts of our proposed ten-year plan prior to finalizingit. We must ask ourselves:• How does the plan directly address prominent issues of the day, that is those issues on our doorstepright now (affordable housing, workforce capacity, etc)• How does the plan prepare for prominent issues clearly visible on our horizon (water availability,workforce skUls deficiencies, etc)• How does the plan speculate on the issues beyond the horizon (street maintenance costs, water/sewerinfrastmcture moratorium, etc)At the end, we must ask "Did we make it harder/easier, more costly/less costly, and who do we benefitor disbenefitwith our proposed plan?"Bozeman City Planning BoardVery Rough DraftPage 2 of 3
Until we can both provide the structure and impact analysis described herein, we cannot morally orethically consider ourselves to have discharged our fiduciary duty to the citizens ofBozeman.With all due sincerity, on behalf of the citizens ofBozeman & Callatin County,Jerry PapeCounty-Appointee to the Bozeman City Planning BoardRealtor/BrokerFounding Director, Northern Rocky Mountain Economic Development DistrictMember, APABowman City Planning BoardVery Rough DraftPage 3 of 3