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HomeMy WebLinkAbout19- Water Utility System Cost of Service and Rate Design Study City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 1 TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM To: Kristin Donald, Finance Director The City of Bozeman From: Shawn Gaddie, PE AE2S Nexus Re: The City of Bozeman Water Utility System Cost of Service and Rate Design Study Date: July 31, 2019 INTRODUCTION The City of Bozeman (the City) retained AE2S Nexus to complete a Water Utility System Cost of Service and Rate Design Study (Study). In addition to reviewing the existing rate structure to address general equitability and revenue adequacy goals, the goal of the study was to provide a comprehensive review of the water system financial plan, including rates, capital and debt financing, and asset renewal and replacement reserve funding. The focus of the study was to develop an approach that would fully fund system expenses, including operations and maintenance (O&M), equipment repair and replacement, and capital. Further, the intent of the study was to accomplish full cost recovery based on the application of a justifiable and equitable rate-setting approach. Specifically, the City’s objectives for completion of the study included the following: • Analyze and discuss the impact of existing and future capital improvements and water supply acquisition; • Assess revenue needs for the five-year planning period beginning 7/1/2018 (FY2019 – 2023), to include adequate coverage for operations and maintenance, capital projects, and program activities and debt service; • Analyze existing rate and fee structures and recommend alternatives based on findings; • Advise the City on industry-accepted methodologies for allocating costs to the various customer classes, provide a breakdown of these expenses, and show how they relate to providing water services; • Examine current user classes and current rate approaches; • Evaluate existing rate structure with regard to changing patterns of consumption, growth in customer base, annual revenues from rates, price elasticity of consumption, demands on rate revenue and the effects of conservation on annual revenues; • Examine adequacy of reserves for operating revenues and capital projects to determine sufficient levels to offset low consumption/revenue years while also reducing spikes in annual rate increases; • Examine the City’s use of debt financing for capital improvements and make recommendations related to its uses and limitations relative to maintaining a proper balance for debt coverage and rate stabilization over this five-year period; City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 2 • Recommend a structure designed to cover all costs of that customer’s service plus return a reasonable margin for proper operating reserves, capital improvements, adequate supplies, and contributions to general administrative costs; and • Evaluate potential Drought Contingency Reserve funding approaches for consideration by the City. To meet the City’s objectives, AE2S Nexus completed a study consisting of the following components: • Develop Test Year Revenue Requirements; • Complete Cost of Service Analysis (COSA); • Evaluate Rate Design Alternatives; • Cost and Fee Benchmarking; • Project Five-Year Revenue Adequacy based on Recommended Rate Design; and • Document Results and Recommendations. Throughout the Study, AE2S Nexus and the City met via videoconference or teleconference to discuss assumptions and intermediate results. In addition, AE2S Nexus gave a presentation to the Bozeman City Commission on August 20, 2018, to introduce the study methodology, provide preliminary recommendations, and solicit direction on policy issues that would impact final rate recommendations. To assist the Commission in understanding the basis of the study recommendations, AE2S Nexus developed policy papers on key topics for review and discussion. AE2S Nexus provided a second presentation to the City Commission on January 28, 2019, to provide updated results and information and gather policy direction on key issues. The final results and recommendations were delivered to the City Commission on April 15, 2019. This Technical Memorandum summarizes the assumptions, analysis, results, and recommendations for the Study. Additional deliverables, including progress meeting and Commission meeting slides, finalized rate models and policy papers have been provided under separate cover. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 3 SYSTEM DESCRIPTION, CUSTOMER USAGE, AND RATE STRUCTURE System Overview The City’s water system consists of two water production facilities, six pressure zones, 22 pressure regulating facilities, two booster stations, four finished water storage reservoirs, 2,448 fire hydrants, and approximately 271 miles of transmission and distribution pipelines. The Sourdough water treatment plant went online in 2014 and is a state-of-the-art membrane facility with a total capacity of 22 million gallons per day (MGD). Raw water is supplied by Middle Creek, Middle Creek Reservoir, Sourdough Creek, and Lyman Creek. Prior to pumping to the distribution system, the raw water is treated in one of two water production facilities, the Lyman Creek Water Treatment Plant or the Sourdough Canyon Water Treatment Plant. Total estimated available capacity from the Lyman Creek Water Treatment Plant is 3.74 MGD. Customers and Usage The water system serves approximately 13,400 accounts and billed an average of 5.24 MGD in 2017. Total average consumption for the facility is estimated at 5.73 MGD when accounting for unbilled water use associated with parks and system water loss. Currently, six customer classes are designated within the rate schedule: Single Family, Multi-Family, Commercial, Government, Montana State University (MSU), and Industrial. In addition, Low-Income Residential users are included in the Single Family class. Per the water rate resolution, users that qualify under the State’s Low Income Property Tax Assistance Program receive a credit equal to the monthly water service charge on their utility bill. All customer classes are billed based on metered water usage as measured in units of one hundred cubic feet (CCF). Table 1 summarizes the existing water customer accounts by user type. The City has seen exceptional growth over the last decade. From 2013 to 2017, as shown in Table 1, customer accounts increased by 2,244, equating to an average of 4.7 percent growth per year over that period. Figure 1 is a graphical depiction of billed flow as tracked by the City for users, grouped as Single Family, Multi-Family, Commercial, Government, MSU, and Industrial. Table 1: Customer Accounts by User Type, 2013 - 2017 Users 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Single Family 8,083 8,366 8,714 8,995 9,784 Multi Family 1,960 2,022 2,090 2,159 2,339 Government 51 52 50 51 55 MSU 17 17 18 18 23 Commercial 1,043 1,062 1,081 1,103 1,196 Industrial 1 1 1 1 2 Total 11,155 11,520 11,954 12,327 13,399 Annual Increase in Meters 365 434 373 1,072 City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 4 Figure 1: Historical Billed Flow, in one hundred cubic feet (CCF) Table 2 summarizes billed flow for the past five years. On a system-wide basis, annual billed flow has increased from 2.2 million CCF (2014) to 2.6 million CCF (2017). However, historical flows per account in Table 3 illustrate the City’s conservation efforts. Annual city-wide consumption has increased, but each user class has seen a decrease in use per account from 2013 to 2017. These decreases are largely attributed to the City’s conservation efforts and the implementation of conservation rates. Increased consumption to the overall user class is attributed to new users in the system. Water sales in 2017 were assumed to reflect a representative year and were utilized as the test year for the COSA. Table 2: Historical Billed Flow (CCF), 2013 – 2017 Total Billed Flow Summary (CCF) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Test Year (MGD) Single Family 904,763 841,117 932,458 979,068 1,018,564 2.09 Multi-Family 544,818 540,782 557,643 578,246 615,966 1.26 Government 52,320 53,597 52,393 54,917 69,110 0.14 MSU 221,574 205,881 211,511 215,438 220,752 0.45 Commercial 601,371 562,078 594,706 579,606 604,163 1.24 Industrial 21,909 24,920 29,965 25,845 30,346 0.06 Total 2,346,755 2,228,375 2,378,676 2,433,120 2,558,901 5.24 Table 3: Historical Annual Flow per Account (CCF), 2013 – 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Single Family 111.9 100.5 107.0 108.8 104.1 Multi Family 278.0 267.4 266.8 267.8 263.3 Commercial 576.6 529.3 550.1 525.5 505.2 - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 Single Family Multi Family Government MSU Commercial Industrial Historical Annual Flow by User Class (in CCF) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 5 Irrigation and Peak Day Usage To evaluate how best to allocate costs associated with peak day use, average daily irrigation demand was calculated based on the difference between average summer and average winter daily demands at the water plants. The maximum day irrigation demand for the system was calculated as the difference between the recorded maximum day demand for both water treatment plants combined less the average winter daily demand. The irrigation peaking factor for the system was then calculated by dividing the maximum day irrigation demand by the average day irrigation demand, yielding a value of 1.43 based on the average of data from 2011 through 2017. Maximum irrigation flow for each user class was calculated as the difference between the maximum month use and the winter average for each user class. Table 4 summarizes maximum irrigation flow for the past five years. Table 4: Maximum Irrigation Flow (CCF/day), 2013 – 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Test Year (MGD) Single Family 4,411 4,632 4,184 4,948 5,442 4.07 Multi-Family 992 1,056 957 996 1,299 0.97 Government 344 317 319 353 428 0.32 MSU 312 191 65 95 254 0.19 Commercial 1,336 1,326 1,530 1,368 1,737 1.30 Industrial 93 25 19 7 41 0.03 City Park Irrigation 0.17 Total 7,488 7,547 7,074 7,767 9,201 7.05 Unmetered Park Irrigation The City provides unmetered irrigation to a number of parks across the community. This unmetered usage is estimated to be 17.5 million gallons annually or an average of 48,000 gallons per day across 20.86 acres. Bulk Water Usage In addition to providing metered water use to connections inside and outside of the City, bulk water sales are available from a fill station located at the vehicle maintenance shop. Total bulk purchases in 2017 equated to 2.17 billion gallons. The current charge of $5.05 per thousand gallons for bulk water provides an approximate 14.55 percent rate of return on bulk water sales. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 6 EXISTING RATE STRUCTURE The City’s FY18 water rate structure consists of: • A Fixed Monthly Service Charge that varies by meter size; and • A Volumetric Rate: o Inclining Block Tiered for Single Family/Low Income Residential users; and o Constant Block Rate for all others. The volumetric rates are charged per 100 cubic feet (CCF) of water use. The FY18 fixed charges and volumetric rates are shown in Tables 5 and 6, respectively. In October 2018, rate adjustments of three percent for Fixed Rates and five percent for volumetric rates were adopted. The FY19 rates are also shown in Tables 5 and 6. The City also provides water to certain users at special rates as shown in Table 7. Table 5: Monthly Fixed Service Charge Structure Meter Size FY18 Rate FY19 Rate 5/8” $15.70 $16.17 1” $20.80 $21.42 1-1/2” $32.73 $33.71 2” $47.59 $49.02 3” $82.26 $84.73 4” $131.92 $135.88 6” $245.85 $253.23 8” $388.73 $400.39 Table 6: Volumetric Rate Structure Class FY18 Rate ($/CCF) FY19 Rate ($/CCF) Single Family and Low-Income Residential 0-8 CCF $2.55 $2.68 8-15 CCF $2.75 $2.89 Over 15 CCF $3.24 $3.40 Multi-Family $1.96 $2.06 Government $1.78 $1.87 MSU $2.22 $2.33 Commercial $1.78 $1.81 Industrial $1.72 $1.81 City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 7 Table 7: 2018 Miscellaneous Rates Customers FY18 Rate Single Family – Flat Rate $68.62/month City Park Irrigation $1,921/acre/year Fire Protection $164,561.70/year Bulk, non-potable $5.05/1,000 gallons City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 8 TEST YEAR REVENUE REQUIREMENTS AND REVENUES To represent a typical year of operations and capital expenditures within the COSA analysis, Test Year revenue requirements were calculated using the cash needs approach. The cash needs approach accounts for Operation and Maintenance (O&M) expenses, debt service principal and capital funded through rates (in lieu of depreciation), and debt service interest expense. Total Test Year 2018 revenue requirements are shown in Table 8, where lines 1 through 12 reflect the City’s FY18 budget and lines 13 and 14 are based on the average annual planned rate-funded capital expenditures and debt service payment, respectively, for the period of 2019 through 2023. The adjustments for budget Divisions 4010, 4020, and 4025 represent the portion of costs associated with other City Departments, covered by transfers from each Department. Table 8: Summary of Test Year 2018 Revenue Requirements Water 2018 Budget Adjustment Adjusted 2018 1. Division: 4010 – Public Services Administration $237,997 $ (207,771) $30,226 2. Division: 4020 – Engineering $563,696 $ (492,107) $71,590 3. Division: 4025 – GIS $696,710 $ (608,228) $88,482 4. Division: 4610 – Water Plant Operations $2,860,555 $ - $2,860,555 5. Division: 4640 – Water Conservation $519,439 $ - $519,439 6. Division: 5010 – Water Operations $2,039,038 $ - $2,039,038 7. Division: 5020 – Utility Locates $105,450 $ - $105,450 8. Division: 5030 – Water Services $45,000 $ - $45,000 9. Division: 5040 – Water Construction $ - $ - $ - 10. Division: 5060 – Meter Reading $577,962 $ - $577,962 11. Division: 5070 – Hydrants $80,000 $ - $80,000 12. Division: 5080 – Water Valves $17,500 $ - $17,500 13. Average Annual Rate-Funded Capital (2019-2023) $1,873,887 $1,873,887 14. Average Annual Debt Service (2019-2023) $2,517,915 $2,517,915 Total $7,743,347 $3,083,697 $10,827,044 Table 9 summarizes the funding sources to be used for the Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) through 2023. Existing and proposed debt service is shown in Table 10. Table 9: Capital Improvement Plan FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 Rate Revenue $3,517,200 $3,132,557 $1,942,500 $1,446,380 $1,479,500 $1,368,500 State Revolving Fund (SRF) Loan $ - $ - $600,000 $10,000,000 $1,750,000 $4,000,000 Revenue Bonds $ - $ - $4,320,000 $8,000,000 $ - $ - R&R Reserve Fund $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Impact Fees $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Total $3,517,200 $3,132,557 $6,862,500 $19,446,380 $3,229,500 $5,368,500 2019-2023 Average Rate-Funded Capital $1,873,887 City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 9 Table 10: Existing and Proposed Debt Service Existing Debt Service 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 SRF Series 2011A $440,000 $452,987 $466,494 $481,039 $495,584 $510,649 SRF Series 2011B $407,000 $419,013 $431,506 $444,961 $458,416 $472,352 Annual Interest $310,000 $293,630 $276,060 $257,960 $239,310 $220,310 Proposed Debt Service FY 2017 Series – SRF $160,112 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 FY 2020 Series – Bond $- $- $- $290,372 $290,372 $290,372 FY 2020 Series – SRF $- $- $- $40,329 $40,329 $40,329 FY 2021 Series – Bond $- $- $- $- $607,630 $607,630 FY 2021 Series – SRF $- $- $- $- $672,157 $672,157 FY 2022 Series – SRF $- $- $- $- $- $117,627 Total Debt Service $1,317,112 $1,765,630 $1,774,060 $2,114,661 $3,403,798 $3,531,426 2019-2023 Average $2,517,915 Rate Revenues Table 11 summarizes the Test Year 2018 rate revenues based on FY18 rates and projected FY18 accounts and water sales. Table 11: Summary of Test Year Rate Revenues User Class Test Year Revenue Single Family Residential $4,527,851 Multi-Family Residential $1,733,758 Government $156,400 MSU $511,959 Commercial $1,369,418 Industrial $49,587 City Park Irrigation $40,072 Fire Protection $164,562 Total $8,553,607 City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 10 COST OF SERVICE ANALYSIS (COSA) Following the initial step of developing Test Year Revenue Requirements, the COSA process follows standard industry methodology. The approach used in this analysis follows recommended industry practices outlined in the American Water Work Association (AWWA) Principles of Water Rates, Fees and Charges Manual of Water Supply Practices (M1). This includes the following steps: 1. Cost Functionalization; 2. Cost Classification; and 3. Cost Allocation. Cost Functionalization Test Year budget line items were categorized into functional components based on the purpose of each revenue requirement. The City’s Water budget contains the subdivisions shown in Table 8. Based on a detailed review of the line item budget and discussion with City staff, it was found that the existing budget subdivisions can be further categorized into the following functions for the purpose of the COSA: • Administration: Includes all costs associated with the Public Services Administration, Engineering, and GIS subdivisions and a portion of Rate-Funded Capital. • Meters: Includes all costs associated with the Meter Reading subdivision. • Treatment – Fixed: Includes all costs associated with the Water Plant operations other than chemicals and electricity. • Treatment – Variable: Includes chemicals and electricity associated with Water Plant Operations. • Transmission/Distribution: Includes a portion of the Water Operations, Utility Locates, and Water Valves subdivisions. Functionalization as transmission or distribution is based on the percentage of inch-miles of pipe equal to or greater than 12-inch (transmission) and less than 12-inch (distribution). • Hydrants: Includes all costs associated with the Hydrants subdivision. • Conservation: Includes all costs associated with the Water Conservation subdivision. • Debt: Includes all principal and interest payments associated with the water utility. • Capital: Includes costs for infrastructure, improvements, and rate-funded capital. Functionalization is based on the breakdown of planned projects for 2019 through 2023. The resulting functionalization percentages are provided in Table 12 and the total resulting functionalized revenue requirements are shown in Table 13. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 11 Table 12: COSA Functionalization Percentages Function Ad m i n i s t r a t i v e Tr e a t m e n t – Fi x e d Tr e a t m e n t – Va r i a b l e Tr a n s m i s s i o n Di s t r i b u t i o n St o r a g e Pu m p i n g – Fi x e d Pu m p i n g – Va r i a b l e As s i g n e d Hy d r a n t Co n s e r v a t i o n Me t e r To t a l Administrative 100% 100% Meter 100% 100% Treatment – Fixed 100% 100% Treatment – Variable 100% 100% Transmission / Distribution 38% 62% 100% Storage 100% 100% Pumping – Fixed 100% 100% Pumping – Variable 100% 100% Hydrant 100% 100% Conservation 100% 100% Debt 100% 100% Capital 6.2% 19.9% 74.0% 100% Table 13: Functionalized Test Year Revenue Requirements User Class Functionalized Revenue Requirements Administrative $305,807 Treatment – Fixed $5,414,870 Treatment – Variable $336,000 Transmission $840,323 Distribution $2,752,643 Assigned Hydrant $80,000 Conservation $519,439 Meter $577,962 Total $10,827,044 Cost Classification Classification of the functionalized costs was based on whether the costs were associated with number of customers served, amount of water pumped and distributed, amount of water treated, or design parameters for treatment and distribution components. Classifications of each cost function is described below. Classification percentages are presented in Table 14 and the total classified costs are presented in Table 15. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 12 • Administration: Costs are classified 100 percent into the Customer classification. • Treatment – Fixed: This expense is associated with meeting maximum day/irrigation demands as well as average day usage. Based on total available system capacity of 25.74 MGD and a Test Year average day of 5.24, Treatment-Fixed costs were classified 20.4 percent as Commodity (5.24/25.47) and 79.6 percent as Capacity. • Treatment – Variable: This expense varies directly with water usage and is assigned as a 100 percent Commodity cost. • Transmission: Like the Treatment – Fixed classification, this expense is associated with meeting maximum day/irrigation demands as well as average day usage and is split between Commodity at 20.4 percent and Capacity at 79.6 percent. • Distribution: Classified similar to Treatment – Fixed and Transmission with a portion of capacity allocation designated as fire protection. The fire protection portion was determined based on fire flow and fire storage capacity design standards. • Assigned Hydrant: This cost is classified 100 percent to Assigned Hydrant classification. • Conservation: Costs are classified 100 percent to the Conservation classification. • Meter: Costs are classified 100 percent to the Meter classification. Table 14: Classification Percentages Function Classification - % Cu s t o m e r Co m m o d i t y Ca p a c i t y As s i g n e d Hy d r a n t Fi r e Pr o t e c t i o n Co n s e r v a t i o n Me t e r Administration 100% Treatment – Fixed 20.4% 79.6% Treatment – Variable 100.0% Transmission 20.4% 79.6% Distribution 20.4% 60.5% 19.1% Assigned Hydrant 100.0% Conservation 100.0% Meter 100.0% City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 13 Table 15: Classified Test Year Revenue Requirements Function Classification - $ Cu s t o m e r Co m m o d i t y Ca p a c i t y As s i g n e d Hy d r a n t Fi r e Pr o t e c t i o n Co n s e r v a t i o n Me t e r Administration $305,807 Treatment – Fixed $1,102,997 $4,311,873 Treatment – Variable $336,000 Transmission $171,172 $669,151 Distribution $560,707 $1,665,539 $526,397 Assigned Hydrant $80,000 Conservation $519,439 Meter $577,962 Total $305,807 $2,170,876 $6,646,563 $80,000 $526,397 $519,439 $577,962 Cost Allocation The final step in the COSA was to allocate the classified costs to the user types identified below: • Single Family; • Multi-Family; • Commercial; • Government; • MSU; • Industrial; and • City Park Irrigation. The allocation basis for each classification of cost is outlined below, with detailed cost allocation presented in Tables 16 through 21. It should be noted that due to rounding, the sum or values or direct multiplication of values in tables may vary slightly from the reported values. • Customer: Allocated based on the number of equivalent meters, as calculated using the equivalent meter cost basis developed by the AWWA. The application of equivalent meter ratios recognizes that these costs vary depending on considerations such as size of service pipe, materials used, locations of meters, etc. • Meter: Allocation based on the total number of actual meters for all user classes. • Supply, Treatment, Transmission, Distribution – Commodity: Allocated based on proportionate share of actual average day flow to all user classes. • Supply, Treatment, Transmission, Distribution – Capacity: Allocated based on proportionate share of maximum day flow to all user classes. • Assigned Hydrants and Fire Protection: Allocation based on proportionate share of equivalent connections. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 14 • Conservation: Allocation based on proportionate share of allocated capacity of system represented as maximum irrigation day flows in MGD to all user classes as presented in Table 4. Table 16: Customer Cost Allocation # of Equivalent Meters % Share Total Single Family 9,835 62.9% $192,349 Multi-Family 3,275 21.0% $64,061 Government 153 1.0% $2,991 MSU 248 1.6% $4,852 Commercial 2,111 13.5% $41,282 Industrial 14 0.1% $272 City Park Irrigation 0.0% $ - Total 15,636 100.0% $305,807 Table 17: Meter Cost Allocation # of Meters % Share Total Single Family 9,784 73.0% $422,030 Multi-Family 2,339 17.5% $100,892 Government 55 0.4% $2,373 MSU 23 0.2% $992 Commercial 1,196 8.9% $51,589 Industrial 2 0.01% $86 City Park Irrigation 0.0% $ - Total 13,399 100.0% $577,962 Table 18: Commodity Cost Allocation – Supply, Treatment, Transmission, Distribution Average Day Flow (MGD) % Share Total Single Family 2.26 39.5% $857,676 Multi-Family 1.37 23.9% $518,670 Government 0.16 2.7% $58,194 MSU 0.49 8.6% $185,883 Commercial 1.34 23.4% $508,732 Industrial 0.06 1.1% $23,577 City Park Irrigation 0.05 0.8% $18,144 Total 5.73 100.0% $2,170,876 City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 15 Table 19: Capacity Cost Allocation – Supply, Treatment, Transmission, Distribution Maximum Flow (MGD) % Share Total Single Family 12.54 48.7% $3,238,658 Multi-Family 4.96 19.3% $1,280,726 Government 0.92 3.6% $237,990 MSU 1.66 6.4% $428,585 Commercial 5.40 21.0% $1,393,548 Industrial 0.09 0.4% $24,025 City Park Irrigation 0.17 0.6% $43,031 Total 25.74 100.0% $6,646,563 Table 20: Cost Allocation – Assigned Hydrant and Fire Protection Equivalent Connections % Share Total Single Family 9,835 62.9% $381,418 Multi-Family 3,275 21.0% $127,029 Government 153 1.0% $5,930 MSU 248 1.6% $9,622 Commercial 2,111 13.5% $81,859 Industrial 14 0.1% $539 City Park Irrigation 0 0.0% $ - Total 15,636 100.0% $606,397 Table 21: Cost Allocation – Conservation Design Flow (MGD) % Share Total Single Family 4.07 57.7% $299,921 Multi-Family 0.97 13.8% $71,603 Government 0.32 4.6% $23,615 MSU 0.19 2.7% $13,998 Commercial 1.30 18.4% $95,750 Industrial 0.03 0.4% $2,271 City Park Irrigation 0.17 2.4% $12,281 Total 7.05 100.0% $519,439 City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 16 COSA RESULTS SUMMARY Table 22 presents the COSA results for all user classes served by the City. The results of the COSA are then compared to Test Year Revenue (estimated revenue at existing rates) collections to assess equitability of the existing rates for each user class (Table 11). A comparison of cost versus revenue share percentages for each user class is shown in Table 23. The percent difference is calculated as the cost percentage minus the revenue percentage, divided by the cost percentage. A percent difference with +/- five percent is generally considered to be within an acceptable range. Where the percent difference is greater than +/- five percent, revision to the rates and/or structure are deemed appropriate to improve the cost-revenue relationship between user classes. Table 22: COSA Results Summary Total Allocated Cost Percent of Cost Single Family $5,392,051 49.8% Multi-Family $2,162,982 20.0% Government $331,091 3.0% MSU $643,933 5.9% Commercial $2,172,759 20.1% Industrial $50,771 0.5% City Park Irrigation $73,457 0.7% Total $10,827,044 100.0% Table 23: Cost versus Revenue Percentage Comparison Percent of Cost Percent of Revenue % Difference Single Family 49.8% 54.0% +8.4% Multi-Family 20.0% 20.7% +3.5% Government 3.0% 1.8% -39.0% MSU 5.9% 6.1% +2.6% Commercial 20.1% 16.3% -18.7% Industrial 0.5% 0.6% +26.1% City Park Irrigation 0.7% 0.5% -29.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% The results of the Water COSA indicate that, based on the methodology applied in this analysis, there is some disparity between the user classes under the existing rate configuration. In particular, on a percentage basis: • The Government class is contributing revenue sizably less than its cost; • The Commercial class is contributing revenue less than its cost; • The Industrial class is contributing revenue greater than its cost; and City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 17 • The City Park class is contributing revenue less than its cost. It should be noted that the results of this analysis regarding differences by class are relatively consistent with the last Cost of Service analysis performed for the City in 2008. To correct cost service inequities moving forward, user class-specific adjustments to the volumetric rates are required. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 18 RATE DESIGN The results of the COSA presented in Tables 22 and 23, as well as Revenue Adequacy goals, were considered when reviewing potential rate design options. Rate Design was focused on each component of the rate structure, including the following: • Monthly Fixed Service Charge; • Volumetric Rate per CCF: o Base Rate per CCF; and o Drought Contingency Rate per CCF; and • Bulk Water Rates. Water Utility Monthly Fixed Charge Rate Design It is generally recommended that a utility recover revenue requirements associated with Meter and Customer costs, as well as a portion of debt, through the fixed charge. The City’s existing structure was found to adequately meet those revenue requirements. Fixed charges provide a more stable revenue stream than volumetric charges. To avoid compromising the existing fixed revenue stream for the utility, a revenue-neutral approach was taken. The fixed charge rate design was based on the AWWA meter equivalent ratios to more equitably align the fixed charges by meter size. Table 24 shows the actual FY18 monthly charges by meter size, the calculated ratio of each charge to the charge for a 5/8-inch meter, and recalculated FY18 meter charges based on the AWWA recommended equivalent meter ratios. The larger meter sizes required the biggest adjustment to bring them in line with the AWWA meter ratios. Table 24: Rate Design – Monthly Fixed Service Charge (FY18) Meter Size FY18 Monthly Service Charge FY18 Ratio to 5/8” Meter AWWA Recommended Equivalent Meter Ratio FY18 Monthly Service Charge Based on AWWA Ratios % Change 5/8” $15.70 1.0 1.0 $15.30 -2.5% 1” $20.80 1.3 1.4 $21.42 +3.0% 1-1/2” $32.73 2.1 1.8 $27.54 -15.9% 2” $47.59 3.0 2.9 $44.37 -6.8% 3” $82.26 5.2 11 $168.30 +104.6% 4” $131.92 8.4 14 $214.20 +62.4% 6” $245.85 15.7 21 $321.30 +30.7% 8” $388.73 24.8 29 $443.70 +14.1% City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 19 Conservation Rates – Single Family Residential Volumetric Rate Design In 2014, the City completed an Integrated Water Resource Plan (IWRP) to identify future water supply needs and outline recommendations for meeting those needs. The City identified water conservation as the most important component in managing the City’s future water supply. The commissioning of a water rate study to evaluate and recommend conservation-based water rates was a key component of the IWRP Implementation Plan. A key component to any successful water conservation program is the adoption of a conservation-based rate structure to send appropriate pricing signals for inefficient use of water and to ultimately increase water use efficiency over time. The conservation-based rates will apply specifically to the Single Family residential user class. Single Family residential was selected because it is the largest user class within Bozeman’s water system and has the greatest conservation potential, with approximately 70 percent of the Single Family residential summer use going to lawns and landscapes. Single Family (and Low-Income Residential) users are charged for water use based on a three- tier inclining block rate structure, as previously shown in Table 6. All other customer classes pay for water use based on a single volumetric rate. To address conservation goals of the City, rate design efforts were specifically focused on tiered residential water use. Rate design involved the consideration of scenarios with three and four tiers, with the tiers defined follows: • Tier 1 – Essential Use; • Tier 2 – Responsible Outdoor Use; • Tier 3 – Inefficient Outdoor Use; and • Tier 4 – Irresponsible Use/Penalty Tier. The AWWA M1 Manual defines essential use as “The quantity of water needed to meet basic human needs, including drinking water for survival, basic hygiene and sanitation purposes, and household needs such as preparing food.” Based on that definition, this study estimated essential water use through the review of winter consumption data when outdoor use is negligible. Analysis of winter consumption data indicates that a typical Single Family residential user consumes approximately 4.67 CCF per month for essential use. Based on a representative property size of 8,100 square feet and an average impervious area of 53 percent, a prudent lawn watering value was determined to be 19.0 CCF per month. This matched well with analysis provided by City staff that showed that current consumption data for users irrigating was 19.3 CCF per month for June through September. As a result, 19 CCF per month was identified as an appropriate value for responsible outdoor use. For the purposes of this study, excessive or irresponsible use was defined as outdoor water use in excess of 2.0 times the typical Single Family outdoor water use required for turfgrass during the peak irrigation month of July, when conditions are exceptionally hot and dry. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 20 Water Use While a property size of 8,100 square feet was referenced in the discussion of how responsible outdoor use was defined, it was noted during the course of the study that property sizes in the City have changed dramatically over the years. To aid in developing volumes for the inclining block tiers based on the definitions above and to understand the impact of changing block sizes from the existing structure, water use was evaluated by residential property age. The age cohorts evaluated included pre-1950s, 1950 to 1988, 1988 to 1990, and post-1990. The findings of that evaluation were as follows: • Newer lots sizes are trending downward; • Outdoor water use for newer lots is trending up significantly, due to irrigation systems; and • Indoor water use for newer lots is trending down due to high efficiency appliances. Figure 2 illustrates the average outdoor, average summer, and average indoor use per account for each age cohort. The line on Figure 2 indicates the average parcel size for each cohort. Table 25 provides further detail on water use statistics by property age. Figure 2: Residential Use per Account vs Parcel Size by Age Cohort Pre-1950 1950 to 1988 1988 to 2009 Post-2009 Pa r c e l S i z e ( s q . f t . ) Wa t e r U s e ( H C F ) 0 5 10 15 20 25 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 9,500 8,500 7,500 11,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 2017 Residential Use vs. Parcel Size Avg. Outdoor Avg. Summer Avg. Winter Avg. Parcel Size City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 21 Table 25: Summary of Water Use Statistics by Age Cohort From the data in Table 25, the following conclusions can be made: • A Tier 1 size of 6 CCF would be sufficient to provide for indoor water use; • A Tier 1 size of 6 CCF would also provide for minor outdoor water use, especially in newer developments; • Due to irrigation system installations, newer developments would be most impacted by changes to existing Tiers 2 and 3; and • A Tier 2 upper limit of 25 CCF would provide adequate efficient outdoor water use for most residential properties. Water Use Considerations for Tier Sizing Table 26 summarizes the existing tiered rate structure for Single Family users. Table 26: FY18 Single Family Residential Volumetric Rate Structure Tier Size (CCF) FY18 $/CCF Tier 1 0 - 8 $2.55 Tier 2 8.01 – 15 $2.75 Tier 3 In excess of 15 $3.24 The primary consideration in the development of water use tiers is the affordability of both essential and responsible outdoor use. The amount of indoor water use required for basic living purposes is sometimes referred to as “Lifeline” water use and can be of particular concern for fixed income users. Age Grouping Pre-1950 1950 to 1988 1988 to 2009 Post-2009 Total Count 1377 1850 3605 2186 % of Total 15%21%40%24% Average Winter 5.0 5.8 5.1 3.8 Upper Quartile 4.4 5.2 4.9 3.6 Median 4.8 5.5 5.1 3.8 Lower Quartile 5.6 6.4 5.3 3.9 Average Summer 11.3 14.8 21.7 22.0 Upper Quartile 10.1 12.5 19.4 20.3 Median 11.0 13.6 21.3 22.8 Lower Quartile 12.5 17.5 24.4 23.0 Winter Usage Summary Summer Usage Summary Winter vs. Summer Water Usage by Age Grouping City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 22 In the tier pricing of each alternative, focus is placed on the ability to maintain a water rate in the first tier that is affordable for this first block of usage where there is little ability for customers to reduce usage. Regarding Responsible outdoor use, when striving for conservation, it is appropriate to charge more for outdoor water use than for indoor water use. The following bullets summarize the observations related to the existing tier structure in terms of potential effectiveness in balancing affordability, conservation, and revenue generation. Rate design alternatives were then developed to provide improvements in these areas. • Tier 1 – The current size of this tier appears to be larger than necessary when considering essential use data. The City of Bozeman’s average residential winter water use per account (i.e. when outdoor water use is negligible) is 4.67 CCF, which suggests quite a bit of outdoor water use is likely being charged at the Tier 1 rate. • Tier 2 – The purpose of the tiered pricing is to promote efficient outdoor water consumption. The rate for this tier appears to provide a minimal pricing signal, with an increase factor of only 1.08 ($2.75/$2.55) over the Tier 1 rate. It is recommended that this first step be established closer to a 1.25 increase factor over the Tier 1 pricing. Additionally, based on an analysis of typical residential lot size and irrigable area, it is recommended that the City consider expanding this tier size to provide a more appropriate volume for the responsible irrigation based on vegetative cover practices and climatic conditions in the Bozeman region. • Tier 3 – This tier also appears to provide a less than adequate price signal. With an increase factor of 1.18 ($3.24/$2.75), this price signal is greater than that from Tier 1 to Tier 2, but still appears to be inadequate for the third or final tier of the rate structure where the goal is to persuade the customer to make better outdoor water use decisions and curb usage back to Tier 2 levels. Effective price signals for a third tier that is meant to address inefficient outdoor water use practices often are seen in the range of a 1.25 to 1.50 factor of increase over Tier 2. Moreover, the review of successful conservation rates from around the region supports the creation of a fourth tier to definitively distinguish inefficient water use from excessive water use. • Beyond Tier 3 – In the existing rate structure, there is no current consideration for excessive use pricing of large volume residential consumers. The most effective conservation rate structures provide a clear distinction between residential consumers with inefficient water use and those with excessive water use well outside the scope of reasonable consumption. A fourth tier increase factor of at least 1.50 is recommended to make this distinction and send a clear price signal to those users putting excess strain on the system. Volumetric Rate Design Alternatives The primary goal of each of the alternatives was not to eliminate outdoor use, but to reduce inefficient use and eliminate excessive use on the water system from the Single Family residential customer class. With a tiered conservation-based rate structure, the best way to do this is to establish appropriate pricing signals as outdoor usage increases from responsible to inefficient to excessive. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 23 Another goal is to maintain equal revenue generation within the first three tiers, with the intention that excessive usage in Tier 4 will eventually be eliminated over time as customers realize the effect of pricing on their water use at this level. Before Tier 4 usage is eliminated, the City can direct the revenue generated from this Tier towards a specific use such as the drought reserve or other water conservation initiatives, if desired. An additional consideration is the relationship between tier size and volumetric rate required as water usage increases in each block. The volumetric rate for each tier is directly related to the size of the tier and the total water sales anticipated within that tier. This is especially important when considering the affordability of the essential use tier (Tier 1). As the size of Tier 1 increases, so does the required rate for this tier. This is primarily driven by the increase in the total water sales projected to be generated from the first Tier as its size increases. Therefore, for all alternatives presented, the Tier 1 size (and associated rate required) was established at or below the existing Tier 1 size. With these goals and considerations in mind, Table 27 summarizes the current rate structure and three alternative structures that were developed for consideration as potential approaches to limit inefficient outdoor water use. Figure 3 represents the structures of the proposed alternatives as related to total annual consumption for a recent year (2017) for the Single Family residential customer class. Table 27: Summary of Volumetric Tiered Rate Structure Alternatives City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 24 Figure 3: Comparison of Tier Structure Alternatives Analysis of Potential Rate Structures In evaluating rate design alternatives, three important characteristics were considered: 1) Tier sizing; 2) Price signal adequacy; and 3) Appropriate increase between the tiers. Tier sizing was primarily established based on essential and responsible outdoor use data specific to the City of Bozeman. The pricing signal and increase factors applied in the development of alternatives were based on the professional experience of the project team in developing successful conservation rate structures for other communities in Montana and across the region. The anticipated effectiveness of each rate structure alternative in reducing consumption and generating appropriate revenue was evaluated through the use of a probabilistic water sales forecasting model. The forecasting model allows for simulations to be run considering multiple factors that could affect water demand such as weather, growth, and pricing structure. Figure 4 indicates the model simulation results regarding the projected decline in water sales as compared to the existing structure for the Single Family user class for each of the presented alternatives. The results illustrated in Figure 4 were developed using a probabilistic revenue forecasting model developed by the Alliance for Water Efficiency. This tool utilizes 15 to 90 years of rainfall and maximum temperature data, along with standard price elasticity values, to evaluate the potential revenue risk associated with a change to the rate structure and pricing configuration. The discussion that follows summarizes observations for each alternative structure in consideration of the review of the effectiveness of the existing rate structure and the results projected from the water sales forecasting analysis. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 25 Figure 4: Forecasted Reduction in Water Sales by Alternative Alternative 1: Model results project that Alternative 1 is likely to provide the least effective conservation results as compared to the current rate structure. This result was not unexpected considering that, of the three alternatives analyzed, this is the only one that does not provide a fourth penalty tier for excessive use. • Tier 1: Alternative 1 decreases essential use to 6 CCF, smaller than the current tier size of 8 CCF. This decrease in tier size also lowers the projected total water use to be sold in this tier, resulting in lower rates for this tier. • Tier 2: This tier is appropriately sized, based on the responsible outdoor water use defined in the analysis of Single Family residential billing records. The increase factor of 1.25 ($3.00/$2.40) is the least aggressive of the alternatives but does send a reasonable price signal for responsible outdoor use. • Tier 3: The price signal from Tier 2 to 3 is equal to the price signal from Tier 1 to 2. This increase factor appears to be insufficient to adequately deter inefficient and excessive usage. With inefficient and excessive consumption bundled under one rate in the third tier, this structure acts in a similar fashion to the City’s current rate, as reflected in the minor 0.8 percent forecasted reduction shown in Figure 4. Alternative 2: While not the most aggressive alternative considered for tier pricing and tier size compression, at a projected 6.8 percent reduction in water use, this alternative is projected to be effective in reducing inefficient and excessive outdoor consumption without unnecessary limitations to outdoor water use. • Tier 1: Like Alternative 1, Alternative 2 defines essential use at consumption up to 6 CCF, less than the current structure. This savings is reflected in the decreased rate of $2.40 per CCF. • Tier 2: This tier is sized to accurately reflect the typical responsible outdoor use of 19 CCF. This alternative also provides a greater price signal than the existing structure or Alternative 1, with an increase factor of 1.35 ($3.24/$2.40) over Tier 1. 0.8% 6.8% 7.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Forecasted Reduction in Water Sales Single Family and Low Income Residential City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 26 • Tier 3: Alternative 2 is projected to have a more effective conservation structure due to its differentiation between inefficient and excessive water use. Tier 3 sizing of 30 CCF appears to provide a sufficient volume of outdoor use and provides an increase factor of 1.40 ($4.54/$3.24) over Tier 2. • Tier 4: Excessive use under Alternative 2 is defined as all use over 55 CCF (6+19+30). With this 4th tier and an increase factor of 1.50 ($6.81/$4.54), this alternative sends a much stronger price signal for excessive use as compared to the existing structure and Alternative 1. Alternative 3: Alternative 3 was the most aggressive conservation rate structure considered with regard to tier pricing steps and tier compression. While Alterative 3 has forecasted greater water use reduction than Alternatives 1 and 2, it does not appear to be significantly more effective than Alternative 2. In comparison to Alternative 2, Alternative 3 reduces the Tier 3 size by 9 CCF, while only improving the expected consumption reduction by 0.6 percent, as indicated in Figure 4. • Tier 1: Alternative 3 treats all water use up to 8 CCF (Tier 1) as essential water use. By expanding volume in the first tier from 6 CCF (Tier 1 limit for Alternatives 1 and 2) to 8 CCF, expected water sales in Tier 1 increase by greater than 60 percent, while flow in Tiers 2 and 3 are expected to decrease by 50 and 30 percent, respectively. The reduction in water sales at the higher Tier 2 and Tier 3 rates would force a higher rate at Tier 1 as compared to Alternative 1 and 2, directly impacting essential water use pricing. • Tier 2: Similar to Alternatives 1 and 2, Alternative 3 Tier 2 sizing is established at 19 CCF. This alternative has the highest Tier 2 increase factor at 1.40 ($3.57/$2.55). This tier covers up to 27 CCF rather than the 25 CCF as found in Alternatives 1 and 2 due to the expanded size of Tier 1. • Tier 3: Alternative 3 limits the inefficient water use (Tier 3) to 46 CCF, in comparison to the Alternative 2 cap of 55 CCF. As stated, this creates the most significant compression of the Tiers 1-3 for any of the alternatives considered, which as a result creates the highest pricing required of any alternative in Tiers 1-3. • Tier 4: The rate for this tier sends the same price signal as the Alternative 2 pricing step for excessive outdoor use with the increase factor of 1.50 ($7.76/$5.18). Based on extensive analysis by City staff and the AE2S Nexus project team, Alternative 2 was the approach recommended to the City Commission. This rate configuration was approved by the Commission on April 15, 2019. Multi-Family Residential and Non-Residential Volumetric Rate Design Under the current constant block rate design for all user classes other than Single Family Residential, the City has the ability to make cost of service-based adjustments by varying the annual rate adjustments to each class. As a result, no rate design recommendations were made for these user classes. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 27 Bulk Water Rates As part of the Study, the City desired an understanding of the COSA-based rate associated with the sale of bulk water. To calculate a bulk rate based only on use of the supply, treatment, and transmission system, the Test Year COSA was adapted to reflect revenue requirements based the industry standard Utility method versus the Cash method. Under the Utility method, capital revenue requirements are represented by depreciation and a return on rate base. Based on the location of the fill station, it was assumed that costs associated with the supply, treatment and transmission components of the system were applicable costs for bulk water, as well as costs associated with the bulk fill station. Table 28 summarizes the results of the bulk rate calculations. The top portion of the table establishes the rate base while the bottom calculates the weighted average costs of capital and the minimum return on the rate base for bulk water. Table 28: Determining Bulk Water Base Rate and Current Return Rate A Total Return on Rate Base $2,622,501 Total Rate Base $130,304,525 12.5% of Working Capital $804,405 Work in Progress $2,940,891 B Total Book Value $134,049,821 Total % Return (A/B) 1.96% C Weighted Average Costs of Capital (WACC) 2.09% Minimum Return on Rate Base for Bulk (B+C) 4.04% As shown above in Table 28, a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) equal to 2.09 percent was calculated. This value is used as the differential between the return on rate base charged to inside users versus outside users. Using the utility method with cash differential to calculate the total return on rate base, the inside users are charged a return on rate base of 1.96 percent and the bulk rate would be based on a minimum of 4.04 percent return on the applicable rate base. Table 29 shows potential bulk rates at varying rates of return. The City currently charges $5.05 per thousand gallons, which equates to a rate of return of 14.55 percent. A rate of return value of 15 percent is recommended, which would result in a calculated rate of $5.15 per thousand gallons. Table 29: Bulk Rates at Varying Rates of Return Return Rate (%) Return on Rate Base O&M + Depreciation Total Cost to Bulk Users Calculated Rate ($/kgal) 3.00% $1,458 $3,887 $5,345 $2.46 5.00% $2,430 $3,887 $6,317 $2.91 10.00% $4,860 $3,887 $8,747 $4.03 14.55% $7,073 $3,887 $10,960 $5.05 15.00% $7,290 $3,887 $11,177 $5.15 * kgal = thousand gallons City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 28 City Park Irrigation Rates As an additional part of the Study, the City desired an understanding of the cost associated with irrigating City Parks. At an assumed irrigable area of 20.86 acres, the results of the COSA suggest the cost of irrigating City Parks is approximately $3,500 per acre per year. This is almost twice the current charge of $1,921 per acre. However, the City noted that some areas are irrigated using non-potable water, and that changes are being made to irrigation in some of these areas. As a result, it is reasonable to reassess the actual potable water usage to City Parks once these changes have been completed. Overall, the cost associated with irrigation of City Parks was less than one percent of overall revenue requirements. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 29 DROUGHT RATES In 2017, the City completed its Drought Management Plan (DMP), outlining the City’s vulnerability to drought, describing ways to mitigate that vulnerability, and providing a drought response strategy. The DMP outlines the City’s drought related characteristics below: “Chronic drought is a part of the Gallatin Valley’s history and is of particular concern to the City of Bozeman as the City has experienced rapid growth in recent decades. The impact of drought on Bozeman is further compounded by its location in the headwaters of the Gallatin River watershed, the susceptibility of the City’s source waters to drought conditions, and limited water storage.” The DMP ultimately recommended a four-stage drought response plan with defined system-wide water reduction targets. Table 30 summarizes the stages and associated targets at each stage: Table 30: Drought Response Plan Targets Drought Stage Stage 1: Drought Watch Stage 2: Drought Advisory Stage 3: Drought Warning Stage 4: Drought Emergency System-Wide Water Reduction Target 10% 20% 30% 40% In short, the recommended responses are as follows: Stage 1 – Drought Watch asks for increased communication on dry conditions; Stage 2 – Drought Advisory implements mandatory watering restrictions; Stage 3 – Drought Warning prohibits lawn watering; and Stage 4 – Drought Emergency rations water supplies for essential uses. Per the recommendations of the DMP, the City is proposing drought rates and formation of a drought reserve to address these vulnerabilities and to ensure the financial stability of the water utility in the event of a drought. The drought rates and reserve will serve two key functions: 1) Reducing water use in times of drought; and 2) Maintaining adequate revenues without extreme rate increases once water use is reduced. Drought Surcharge Rates The primary goal of a drought rate structure is to encourage conservation through increased rates in the event of a drought and to supplement lost revenue from watering restrictions. Drought rates are different from the regular rate structures for water service in that they are temporary in nature. When considering the design of drought rates, it is common practice to tie the drought declaration/stage to the criteria for implementing and removing drought rates. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 30 To meet the DMP’s reduction goals, the City has decided to implement a class-based volumetric surcharge. A class-based volumetric surcharge incorporates an increasing block surcharge tied to the varying reduction abilities of each user class. This method is often considered a more effective drought surcharge when compared to other surcharge alternatives available such as a common fixed charge increase or an equivalent volumetric surcharge for all customers. A key consideration in the development of a class-based volumetric surcharge structure is the ability of each class to reduce non-essential water use. To determine the total water use reduction potential by class, the project team reviewed detailed winter versus summer water use records. Table 31 shows the estimated maximum outdoor water use reduction potential for each class based on this review of winter versus summer consumption for each class. Table 31: Estimated Maximum Water Use Reduction Potential on Non-Essential Outdoor Use Total Single Family Residential 50% Multi-Family Residential 16% Government 54% MSU 14% Commercial 28% Industrial < 5% Estimated Overall Reduction 33% In reviewing the total system-wide reduction potential indicated in Table 31, another key consideration was that even with the elimination of all estimated outdoor water consumption, the overall estimated reduction would not achieve a target of 40 percent for a Stage 4 Drought Emergency. Considering estimated reduction potential by class on outdoor water use restrictions/additional reduction potential to be achieved from targeted Drought Response Measures, the reduction targets by Class and Stage as presented in Table 32 were determined to achieve the total Stage Reduction Targets. Table 32: Water Use Reduction Targets by Stage and Class Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Single Family 10.0% 20.0% 50.0% 55.0% Multi-Family Residential 10.0% 16.0% 16.0% 26.0% Government 10.0% 20.0% 55.0% 60.0% MSU 10.0% 14.0% 14.0% 24.0% Commercial 10.0% 20.0% 27.0% 36.0% Industrial 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 20.0% Estimated Overall Reduction 10.0% 18.4% 33.0% 40.4% Stage Reduction Target 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 31 Considering the reduction targets by class and the guiding principles as outlined in the City’s DMP, a proposed configuration of drought surcharge rate adjustments was developed and are presented in Table 33. The strategy in Table 33 was developed to align with the following surcharge pricing goals: • Surcharge Pricing Goal #1: Drought rate pricing signals should be developed in a manner that carefully considers the cost of water for essential uses. • Surcharge Pricing Goal #2: Drought rates should match the severity of the drought and drought response measures. Specifically, Tiers 2-4 are significantly increased to penalize outdoor water use after the lawn water ban is established in Stage 3 and Stage 4 droughts. • Surcharge Pricing Goal #3: Drought rates should be established to replace, as much as possible, the anticipated revenue lost from water use reduction in each class. Table 33: Drought Rate Increases by Stage and Class Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Single Family/Low-Income Residential Tier 1 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 25.0% Tier 2 10.8% 29.0% 100.0% 200.0% Tier 3 10.8% 29.1% 100.0% 200.0% Tier 4 10.8% 29.1% 100.0% 200.0% Multi-Family Residential 11.1% 19.0% 19.0% 25.0% Government 11.1% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% MSU 11.1% 16.3% 16.3% 25.0% Commercial 11.1% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% Industrial 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% Table 34 outlines the process used to develop the surcharge increase by class and stage in order to align with the stated pricing goals. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 32 Table 34: Drought Stage and User Class Surcharge Rate Design Summary User Class (Estimated Max Reduction from Outdoor Use) Pricing Goal #1: Essential Use Impacts Pricing Goal #2: Drought Surcharge Aligned w/ Drought Severity Pricing Goal #3: Replacement of Lost Revenue from Water Sales Reductions Single Family and Low-Income Residential (50%) To minimize impacts to essential use pricing, the largest increases were applied to Tiers 2-4 for outdoor consumption. In addition, the maximum surcharge was capped at 25% for Tier 1 essential use. Stage 1 and 2 surcharges established in Tiers 2-4 to curb outdoor water use to reduction goal. Stage 3 and Stage 4 surcharges established to eliminate/significantly penalize all outdoor water use in Tiers 2- 4. Stage 1 and 2 surcharges established to replace anticipated lost revenue from water use reduction. Stage 3 and Stage 4 restrictions are expected to result in significant loss in revenue from this class in Tiers 2-4. Additionally, surcharge cap on Tier 1 increase is not high enough to replace all anticipated revenue loss from higher Tier use. Multi-Family (16%) Maximum surcharge is capped at 25% in Stage 4. Stage 1 surcharge established to curb outdoor water use. Stage 2, Stage 3, and Stage 4 surcharges established to eliminate nearly all outdoor use. Stage 1-3 surcharges established to replace lost revenue from water reduction. With water use reduction target of 26% by Stage 4, the surcharge cap of 25% prevents full revenue replacement. Government (54%) Maximum surcharge is capped at 25% by Stage 2. Similar to Single Family Stage 1 and Stage 2 surcharges established to curb outdoor water use to reduction goal and Stage 3 and Stage 4 surcharges established to eliminate nearly all outdoor water use. Stage 1 and 2 surcharges established to replace lost revenue from water reduction. With water use reduction target of 60% by Stage 4, the surcharge cap of 25% prevents full revenue replacement. MSU (14%) Maximum surcharge is capped at 25% in Stage 4. Stage 1 surcharge established to curb outdoor water use to reduction goal. Stage 2, Stage 3, and Stage 4 surcharges established to eliminate outdoor water use. With maximum reduction target of 24%, Stage 1-4 surcharges anticipated to replace all revenue loss (i.e. reduction target never exceeds surcharge increase cap). Commercial (28%) Maximum surcharge is capped at 25% by Stage 2. Similar to Single Family Stage 1 and Stage 2 surcharges curb outdoor water use to reduction goal. Stage 3 and Stage 4 surcharges established to eliminate nearly all outdoor water use. Stage 1 and 2 surcharges established to replace lost revenue from water reduction. With water use reduction target of 36% by Stage 4, the surcharge cap of 25% prevents full revenue replacement. Industrial (<5%) Primarily one customer with very limited current outdoor water use and limited ability to reduce, maximum surcharge was capped at 11.1% by Stage 1. At 10% total reduction target, Stages 1-3 surcharges established to eliminate all outdoor water use. Stage 1-3 surcharges established to replace anticipated lost revenue from water reduction. With further rationing anticipated in Stage 4, cap of 11.1% insufficient to replace anticipated revenue loss. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 33 Drought Reserve Funding Without the presence of surcharge caps and drought reserves to offset revenue loss, the one-time surcharge rate increases and affordability implications are anticipated to be significant. To establish a mechanism to offset these affordability concerns, the project team modeled the use of a drought reserve in combination with the capped surcharge increases for each class. Drought rates and the drought reserve are mutually-supporting and an effective drought management plan will utilize both resources in the event of a drought. Droughts may last months, one year, or multiple years and the City will not know the full extent of the drought until it has ended. For that reason, it was recommended that the City consider funding a drought reserve to a target amount ahead of a drought in order to draw upon the reserve in the time of need. As noted in Table 34, the rate adjustments for Stage 1 and Stage 2 are expected to adequately replace anticipated revenue losses under Stage 1 and Stage 2 drought conditions. However, the rate caps outlined in Table 34 are anticipated to prevent most of the customer classes from fully recovering lost revenues during Stage 3 and Stage 4. To maintain financial stability in the face of decreasing revenues during these drought stages, it was recommended that the City consider establishing a policy identifying target drought reserves and how the reserve should be implemented in the event of a drought. After soliciting input from City staff and the Commission, a Drought Contingency Reserve target equal to one year’s revenue short fall based on Stage 3 reductions was recommended. The revenue shortfall analysis estimates that with a 25 percent surcharge rate cap in place, one year of a Stage 3 drought would create a revenue shortfall of approximately $2.2 million. The Reserve will be funded by drought contingency surcharges over a ten-year period. Table 35 shows the calculations for the Drought Reserve Funding Target. Table 35: One-Year Funding Target Calculation Revenue Target $6,426,838 Projected Revenue – Stage 3 Drought $4,226,746 Revenue Surplus/(Shortfall) ($2,200,092) One-Year Target $2,200,092 Ten Years of Water Sales (CCF) 27,594,709 The City chose to fund the drought reserve with a common volumetric surcharge applied to all units of water. This method is perceived as fair and equitable by users and is relatively simple to implement. The final recommended drought surcharge rates are shown in Table 36. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 34 Table 36: Recommended Drought Surcharge Rates, $/CCF 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Single Family/Low-Income Residential Tier 1 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 Tier 2 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 Tier 3 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 Tier 4 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 Multi-Family Residential $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 Commercial $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 Government $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 MSU $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 Industrial $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 35 REVENUE ADEQUACY Revenue adequacy is evaluated to determine the short-term and long-term adequacy of the existing rates, and to propose potential rate adjustments to ensure that the existing rates and any proposed changes do not negatively impact the City’s financial position in the future. This section summarizes background pertaining to projected revenue requirements, the assumptions used to evaluate revenue adequacy, specific recommendations for FY20 rates, and projected rates for 2020 through 2023 for the City’s Water Utility. Financial Model and Assumptions A multi-year financial model was developed for the City. The model was built using the City’s current operations and funding policies based upon financial information provided by the staff. The model was used to project the net revenue requirements (total revenue requirements less miscellaneous operating and non-operating revenue), revenue generated from proposed rates, and the corresponding revenue surplus or deficiency. Since there is obvious uncertainty associated with projecting into the future, it is recommended that the rate assumptions should be re- evaluated and updated on an annual basis in conjunction with budget and capital planning. The revenue adequacy assumptions are noted below: O&M Assumptions • 2018 Budget as a basis. • Three (3) percent annual index rate for General Inflation. • Five (5) percent annual index rate for Chemicals and Power. • Four (4) percent annual index for Flow-related Cost. • Five (5) percent annual index for Labor. Capital Assumptions • Annual capital expenditure projections were based on the provided Capital Improvements Plan (CIP) for 2019-2023. Annual cash-funded amounts include: o 2019: $3,132,557 o 2020: $1,942,500 o 2021: $1,446,380 o 2022: $1,479,500 o 2023: $1,368,500 Debt Assumptions • Existing Debt: Approximately $15.76 million outstanding principal on State Revolving Fund (SRF) Loans. • Coverage: The SRF loans require 110 percent coverage annually. • Future Debt to be Repaid with Utility Revenues: Future revenue requirements account for the following planned debt issuances as listed in the CIP. o 2020: $600,000 for Sourdough Tank Inspection and Improvements; o 2021: $10,000,000 for Lyman Tank and Transmission Main Construction; o 2022: $1,750,000 for PRV Phase 1 Mechanical and Structural Upgrades; and o 2023: $4,000,000 for Hyalite Dam and Reservoir Optimization Improvements. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 36 • Future Debt to be Repaid with Impact Fee Revenues: Future revenue requirements account for the following planned debt issuances as listed in the CIP: o 2020: $4,320,000 for Sourdough Transmission Main Replacement; and o 2021: $8,000,000 for a Well Field project. Reserve Assumptions • Operating Reserve: Funded to a targeted level of 90 days O&M expense based on existing reserve policies (FY19 Target is $1,590,159). Revenue sources include rate revenue and miscellaneous income. Reserve funds would meet rate revenue shortfalls and unplanned O&M expenditures. Any revenues in excess of target would be transferred to other reserve funds until such a time as all reserve funds are funded at target levels. • Renewal/Replacement Reserve: Funded to the five-year target level based on projected renewal deficiency using Weibull Analysis for horizontal (pipeline) infrastructure and adjusted annual depreciation values reflecting future replacement values for above ground assets. The sum of these two values yields total annual adjusted depreciation and represents the minimum recommended annual capital investment/reinvestment in the system. To account for planned investment through rate-funded capital and debt service principal payments, these values are then subtracted from the total adjusted depreciation to determine if additional annual contribution to capital reserves is required. Table 37 summarizes the estimation of annual contribution to capital renewal/replacement reserves. For FY20 through FY23, Table 37 shows that the City’s planned contributions through the CIP and debt repayment exceed the estimated adjusted annual depreciation. Table 37: Projected Minimum Renewal/Replacement Reserve Contributions FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 Adjusted Depreciation (for Vertical Assets) $2,105,411 $2,421,007 $2,493,637 $2,728,446 $3,276,966 $3,375,275 Forecasted Renewal and Replacement (Weibull Analysis – for Horizontal Assets) $202,361 $202,361 $272,229 $272,229 $272,229 $272,229 Total Adjusted Depreciation $2,307,772 $2,623,368 $2,765,866 $3,000,675 $3,549,195 $3,647,504 Rate-Funded CIP $743,454 $980,273 $2,032,382 $2,178,736 $1,741,546 $1,877,664 Debt Service Principal $1,143,461 $1,175,873 $1,209,470 $1,429,027 $2,140,405 $2,268,488 Additional Capital Contribution $420,857 $467,222 $ - $ - $ - $ - • Debt Service Reserve: Funded to a target level of one-year total debt service payment based upon bond covenants (FY19 Target is $1,774,060). Contributions include transfers in from the Operating Reserve. Reserve fund usage is limited to debt service payments only. • Drought Contingency Reserve: Funded to a target level of one year of revenue deficiency in five years (FY23 Target is $1,100,046). Contributions only include revenues from Drought Contingency Rates. • Rate Stabilization Reserve: Funded to a floating target level based on cash-funded capital needs. Contributions include transfers in from Operating Reserve. Reserve funds would be used for unplanned capital investment and to minimize the need for sporadic rate increase due to large CIP items. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 37 Revenue Assumptions • Fixed Rate Revenue: Revenue generated from the fixed rates was based on the number of meter connections by size in 2018. Beginning in 2019 and for future years, Single Family meters were increased by 3.8 percent annually, Multi Family by 3.1 percent annually, and Commercial by 1.7 percent annually. Government, MSU, and Industrial meter counts were held constant. • Volumetric Rate Revenue: Revenue generated from volumetric rates was based on projected year-end water sales for 2018. Beginning in 2019, Single Family/Low-Income Residential flows were increased by 2.55 percent annually, Multi-Family by 3.01 percent annually, MSU by 2.55 percent annually, and Commercial by 1.67 percent annually. Government and Industrial flows were held constant. • All other miscellaneous income was held constant through the study period. Utility Cash Balance Assumptions • The projected Operating Reserve balance at the end of FY18 is $1,542,708. • The projected Bond Covenant Reserve balance at the end of FY18 is $1,765,630. • The projected Renewal/Replacement Reserve balance at the end of FY18 is $460,857. • The projected Rate Stabilization Reserve balance at the end of FY18 is $6,841,367. Revenue Adequacy Model Projections The evaluation of the Water Utility revenue adequacy entailed development of two (2) primary rate model scenarios: • Baseline Scenario – This model reflects increasing O&M expenses, growth of both flow and meters, and the incorporation of the CIP, but holds rates at the current (2018) level throughout the five-year planning period. This is the “do nothing” scenario and serves to illustrate the effect that delaying necessary utility rate increases may have on utility finances. • Rate Adjustment Scenario – In addition to the adjustments to revenue requirements, flow, and meters noted for the Baseline Scenario, this model incorporates recommended adjustments to the utility rates and projects utility finances over the five-year planning period based on the recommended rate adjustments. In addition to overall revenue adequacy, the rate adjustments account for cost of service-based adjustments, reserve balances and targets, and debt service coverage. The Baseline and Rate Adjustment Scenario revenue adequacy models were developed to extend through the year 2028 but are shown in the following tables through 2023. It should be noted that revenue and expense requirements for any utility can vary significantly over the course of five years. It is recommended that the City review and update the model on an annual basis to make adjustments to the rate plan for the coming year, as appropriate. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 38 Revenue Adequacy Results Baseline Scenario Under the Baseline Scenario, in which no rate increases are applied but annual revenue requirements grow, a revenue deficiency exists in all years. The results of the Baseline Scenario are summarized in Table 38 and Figure 5. Under this scenario, the objective of funding a self- sufficient Water Utility is not met. This approach is not recommended. Table 38: Baseline Revenue Adequacy Results 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 O&M $6,448,979 $6,700,279 $6,962,833 $7,237,163 $7,523,818 Rate Funded Capital $3,132,557 $1,942,500 $1,446,380 $1,479,500 $1,368,500 Debt Repayment $1,765,630 $1,774,060 $2,114,661 $3,403,798 $3,531,426 Total Revenue Requirements $11,347,166 $10,416,839 $10,523,874 $12,120,461 $12,423,744 Fixed Rate Revenue $3,034,655 $3,134,305 $3,237,436 $3,344,173 $3,454,644 Volumetric Rate Revenue $5,083,891 $5,289,739 $5,416,757 $5,548,315 $5,683,427 Impact Fee Revenue for Debt Payment $600,000 $600,000 $861,335 $1,468,965 $1,468,965 Miscellaneous Revenue $223,403 $223,403 $223,403 $223,403 $223,403 Total Revenue $8,941,949 $9,247,448 $9,738,931 $10,584,856 $10,830,439 Operating Surplus/(Deficiency) ($3,348,775) ($2,176,082) ($1,918,556) ($3,223,905) ($3,420,530) Operating Reserve Balance $1,590,159 $1,652,124 $1,716,863 $1,447,908 $0 Repair/Replacement Reserve Balance $1,023,558 $2,070,249 $1,394,279 $0 $0 Bond Reserve Balance $1,774,060 $2,114,661 $3,403,798 $3,531,426 $3,386,029 Rate Stabilization Reserve $4,081,497 $1,462,849 $0 $0 $0 Drought Contingency Reserve $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Figure 5: Baseline Revenue Adequacy Results 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% $- $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 $14,000,000 $16,000,000 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Projected Water Fund Balances Bond Covenant Reserve Account Operations and Maintenance Reserve Account Renewal/Replacement Reserve Account Drought Contingency Reserve Rate Stabilization Reserve Account Operating and Bond Reserve Target Stacked Reserve Target Bond Reserve Target Drought Contingency Reserve Target Aggregate Rate Increase City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 39 Rate Adjustment Scenario To address the objectives of meeting revenue requirements, building target reserve levels, and equitably recovering costs from user classes, the rate projections shown in Table 39 were developed. Based on the implementation of the rate recommendations in Table 39, Table 40 summarizes the overall projected revenue adequacy, including the coverage requirement to be achieved. Note that the FY19 rates in Table 39 were implemented while the study was in progress, in October 2018. Figure 6 illustrates the projected revenues and expenses through 2023, and Figure 7 depicts projected reserve fund cash balances through the same period. Table 39: Rate Adjustment Scenario Rate Structure Projections 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Monthly Service Charge 5/8” $16.17 $16.17 $16.17 $16.17 $16.17 1” $21.42 $22.64 $22.64 $22.64 $22.64 1-1/2” $33.71 $29.11 $29.11 $29.11 $29.11 2” $49.02 $46.89 $46.89 $46.89 $46.89 3” $84.73 $117.33 $137.51 $157.69 $177.87 4” $135.88 $172.08 $190.18 $208.28 $226.38 6” $253.23 $287.75 $305.03 $322.30 $339.57 8” $400.39 $427.79 $441.51 $455.22 $468.93 Flow Charge ($/CCF) Single Family and Low-Income Tier 1 $2.68 $2.40 $2.40 $2.40 $2.40 Tier 2 $2.89 $3.27 $3.30 $3.33 $3.36 Tier 3 $3.40 $4.59 $4.64 $4.69 $4.74 Tier 4 $ - $6.88 $6.95 $7.02 $7.09 Multi-Family $2.06 $2.10 $2.14 $2.18 $2.22 Government $1.87 $2.24 $2.69 $3.23 $3.88 MSU $2.33 $2.42 $2.52 $2.62 $2.72 Commercial $1.81 $1.95 $2.11 $2.28 $2.46 Industrial $1.81 $1.81 $1.81 $1.81 $1.81 City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 40 Table 40: Rate Adjustment Scenario Revenue Adequacy Results 2019 2020 2021 2024 2023 O&M $6,448,979 $6,700,279 $6,962,833 $7,237,163 $7,523,818 Rate Funded Capital $3,132,557 $1,942,500 $1,446,380 $1,479,500 $1,368,500 Transfer to Drought Reserve $187,854 $202,081 $206,849 $211,793 $216,871 Transfer to Capital Reserve $467,222 $0 $0 $0 $0 Debt Repayment $1,165,630 $1,174,060 $1,253,327 $1,934,834 $2,062,461 Total Revenue Requirements $11,402,242 $10,018,920 $9,869,389 $10,863,290 $11,171,650 Fixed Rate Revenue $3,125,695 $3,247,844 $3,374,440 $3,505,567 $3,641,389 Volumetric Rate Revenue $5,469,187 $6,658,878 $7,020,455 $7,407,976 $7,822,554 Drought Surcharge $187,854 $202,081 $206,849 $211,793 $216,871 Miscellaneous Revenue $223,403 $223,403 $223,403 $223,403 $223,403 Total Revenue $9,006,139 $10,332,206 $10,825,147 $11,348,739 $11,904,218 Operating Surplus/(Deficiency) ($2,396,103) $313,285 $955,759 $485,449 $732,567 Debt Service Coverage 168% 227% 214% 158% 159% Operating Reserve Balance $1,590,159 $1,652,124 $1,716,863 $1,784,506 $1,855,188 Repair/Replacement Reserve Balance $968,079 $1,008,079 $1,048,079 $1,088,079 $1,128,079 Bond Reserve Balance $1,774,060 $2,114,661 $3,403,798 $3,531,426 $3,810,789 Rate Stabilization Reserve $4,349,383 $4,220,102 $3,781,985 $4,032,163 $4,374,685 Drought Contingency Reserve $187,854 $389,935 $596,784 $808,577 $1,025,448 Figure 6: Projected Revenues and Revenue Requirements – Rate Adjustment Scenario 4.2% 16.6% 2.2%2.3%2.4% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% $0 $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 $14,000,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Revenues vs. Total Expenses Total Revenues Total Revenue Requirements Aggregate Rate Increase City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 41 Figure 7: Projected Water Fund Cash Balances $- $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 $14,000,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Projected Water Fund Balances Bond Covenant Reserve Account Operations and Maintenance Reserve Account Renewal/Replacement Reserve Account Drought Contingency Reserve Rate Stabilization Reserve Account Operating and Bond Reserve Target Stacked Reserve Target Bond Reserve Target Drought Contingency Reserve Target City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 42 2019 Water Bill Impacts To provide perspective on the magnitude of the rate projections in Table 39, bill impacts based on 2019 rate recommendations have been estimated for average water use values specific to each type of user. Table 41 presents the projected 2019 monthly bills for the amount of water listed compared to the monthly charge at existing rates. The dollar and percentage value of the monthly increase is also presented. Table 41: Projected Monthly Bill at Recommended Rates Monthly Bill at FY19 Rates FY20 Monthly Bill at Recommended Rates Monthly $ Change % Change Single Family 3 CCF, 5/8” Meter $24.21 $23.61 ($0.60) -2.5% 8 CCF, 5/8” Meter $37.61 $37.75 $0.14 +0.4% 20 CCF, 5/8” Meter $74.84 $77.95 $3.11 +4.2% 30 CCF, 5/8” Meter $108.84 $118.05 $9.21 +8.5% 60 CCF, 5/8” Meter $210.84 $269.20 $58.36 +27.7% Multi-Family 6 CCF, 5/8” Meter $28.53 $29.25 $0.72 +2.5% Commercial 24 CCF, 1” Meter $64.86 $71.36 $6.49 +10.0% Government 24 CCF, 2” Meter $93.90 $100.65 $6.76 +7.2% MSU 24 CCF, 1.5” Meter $89.63 $89.11 ($0.53) -0.6% Industrial 24 CCF, 2” Meter $92.46 $92.25 ($0.20) -0.2% Cost of Service Alignment Table 42 summarizes the projected COSA difference between cost and revenue percentages for the rate adjustment scenario. The goal is to achieve a percent difference +/- five to ten percent. The projected percent difference for each user class over the planning period is shown in the lower half of the table. The actual percent difference values will vary, but the projections generally show a movement in the direction of correcting any cost of service disparity for all user classes. The green shading indicates when the cost versus revenue percent difference is expected to fall within the +/- five to 10 percent goal. City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 43 Table 42: Projected COSA Differences Target 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Percent of Revenue: Single Family Residential 49.8% 51.6% 56.1% 55.3% 54.5% 53.7% Multi-Family Residential 20.0% 22.3% 19.8% 19.8% 19.8% 19.7% Commercial 20.1% 17.2% 15.9% 16.5% 17.2% 17.9% Government 3.0% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.6% MSU 5.9% 6.5% 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% 5.6% Industrial 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Total 100.00% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Percent Difference from Target Single Family Residential 2.9% 11.9% 10.3% 8.7% 7.1% Multi-Family Residential 10.9% -1.5% -1.7% -1.9% -2.2% Commercial -14.8% -21.2% -18.0% -14.8% -11.5% Government -40.8% -40.3% -33.2% -25.1% -15.9% MSU 7.5% -3.1% -3.8% -4.7% -5.8% Industrial 30.8% 13.9% 10.8% 7.8% 4.7% City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 44 RECOMMENDATIONS As described in this memorandum, the following changes to the rate structure are recommended: • Monthly Service Charges: Adopt the FY20 service charges in Table 39 and work to gradually bring the charges by meter size into alignment with the AWWA equivalent meter factors. • Single Family Inclining Block Rate Structure: Adopt the four-tiered including block approach identified and described as Alternative 2 on pages 19 through 26. Adopt the FY20 rates in Table 39. • All user classes other than Single Family Residential: Implement the rates in Table 39 and apply COSA-based volumetric rate adjustments over time to remedy existing inequities between the user classes. • Drought Reserve Surcharge: Adopt a surcharge of $0.08 per CCF for all metered water sales to fund a Drought Contingency reserve. • Bulk Water Rate: Consider adjusting this rate to $5.15 per thousand gallons in FY20. This represents a two percent increase. • City Park Irrigation: Re-evaluate the cost of this service once existing irrigation projects are complete and a better estimate of acreage irrigated with potable water is developed. In addition to the rate recommendations above, the following general recommendations were developed in conjunction with completion of the Water Rate Study. • Review Water Revenue Adequacy Annually. The City has undertaken this project to obtain a financial tool to assist in management financial health of the Water Utility. Although the projections herein contain proposed rate adjustments through 2023, a change in actual revenues or expenses from those projected could significantly impact the Utility. As a result, it is strongly recommended that the City closely monitor revenues and expenses as compared to those projected in the rate model, adjusting as necessary, and update the projected rate adjustments based on the desired objective of achieving consistent revenue adequacy and meeting cash reserve target balances. • Strive to Correct Cost of Service Inequities. Implementing the recommended changes to the water rates over time will allow a gradual cost of service correction. The model calculates COSA percentages for each year and the City should monitor those results and consider COSA when making changes to the future rates. • Set Target Levels and Fund Reserves. It is recommended that the City establish and maintain the reserves noted below. Target levels are recommended as the minimum balance, but for the purpose of this analysis, Operating and Capital Reserve funds were capped at the recommended level to push excess reserves into a Rate Stabilization fund. Once all funds are fully funded at the target level, additional funds could be added at the City’s discretion. o Operating Reserves: Target = 90 days of operating expenses (approximately $1,590,159 in 2019). o Bond Covenant Reserve: 1 Year Total Payment per Bond Covenants (approximately $1,774,060 in 2019). City of Bozeman: Water Utility System Cost of Service & Rate Design Study 45 o Renewal/Replacement Reserve: Annual contribution based on minimum calculated renewal/replacement contribution needs. o Rate Stabilization Reserve: Target = Floating Target Based on reinvestment projections and programmed Rate-Funded Capital and Debt Principal repayment. o Drought Contingency Reserves: 5-Year Target = 1 Year Stage 3 Drought, 10-Year Target = 2 Year Stage 3 Drought (approximately $1,100,046 in 2023 and $2,200,092 in 2028). • Develop Drought Rate and Reserve Implementation Policies. It is recommended that the City establish policies outlining the utilization of the drought reserve and setting a maximum surcharge increase target for essential use. The City should approve a policy to utilize the drought reserve to offset revenue shortfalls during Stage 3 and Stage 4 droughts. The City should also develop a policy outlining the maximum surcharge target for essential use to address potential affordability issues. • Monitor Near-Term Revenue Stability. Recommended increases to water rates may result in changes to water usage. Conservative water usage growth has been assumed in the analysis, but it will be important to make adjustments to the assumptions as actual usage information becomes available. Therefore, the City should closely monitor revenue stability.