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HomeMy WebLinkAbout11-29-18 Public Comment - T. Wisco (with Norton Ranch) - Community Plan UpdateFrom:Tammy Wisco To:Chris Saunders Cc:Kevin Spencer (kspencer@ksstone.com) Subject:Norton Ranch: Community Plan Update Date:Thursday, November 29, 2018 5:02:50 PM Attachments:Norton Ranch - Bozeman Cover Letter.PDFExhibit A. Land Use Mapping.pdfExhibit B. Norton Ranch Planning Memo.pdfExhibit C. Bozeman Retail Analysis Report.pdfExhibit D. Bozeman Benefits & Retail Trends.pdf Chris, Please find attached several documents supporting Norton Ranch’s request for a CommunityPlan map change to community commercial mixed use: 1. Cover Letter 2. Exhibit A - Mapping3. Exhibit B - Planning Memo 4. Exhibit C - Leland Consulting Group Retail Analysis5. Exhibit D - Leland Consulting Group Community Benefits & Retail Trends We realize that the Community Plan update will include new goals and policies; we are happy to address these as they become available. Please let me know if you have any questions. We understand this is the start of aconversation; we are ready to discuss more details when the timing is right for you and your staff. Tammy Tammy Wisco, PE, AICP, MPA | RETIA CONSULT, LLC c. 210 896 3432 P.O. Box 831, Bend, OR 97709 \NORTON RANCI{ HOMES November 29,2018 City of Bozeman Planning Division ATTN: Chris Saunders 12L N Rouse Avenue Bozeman, MT 59715 Dear Mr. Saunders, Norton Ranch understands that the City is currently going through a process to update the Community Plan to guide future growth and development within the City. We appreciate the Plan's purpose to integrate the community's concerns and expressions on how the City should grow and develop and we provide this letter as public and property owner input to the future plan. Norton Ranch reached out to the property owner to the immediate east to determine whether it would be prudent to include the adjacent property in this request. However, since that property is already designated Community Commercial Mixed Use in the Community Plan, there did not appear to be a need to include that property in the request at this time. We request that The Plan be updated to include the designation of Community Commercial Mixed Use for the 68.9 acres shown as the remainder lot R4 of Phase 4 of the Norton Ranch Homes development, as shown in Exhibit A. As discussed in the accompanying narrative, this designation will provide the opportunity for the development of a commercial node to serve the west Bozeman residential area, including rural areas outside the City. This will promote livability through reduced vehicle miles traveled by providing needed services closer to residences. Enclosed in this package are several exhibits supporting this request: Exhibit A Exhibit B Exhibit C Exhibit D Maps of Subject Property - Existing and Proposed, C&H Engineering & Surveying Planning Memo, Retia Consult Retail Analysis, Leland Consulting Group Community Benefits & Retail Trends, Leland Consulting Group We are happy to provide further details to support this request and expect to have ongoing conversations with City staff over the next months. lf you have any questions, please call me at 54L.815.7858. si ncer 6goz6 NE LOWER MEADOW DRME, SUITE z3o - BEND, OR g77oL I g4r.7z8.og78 NORTONRANCHHOMES.COM Kevin Exhibit B - Norton Ranch Community Plan Amendment Request, Planning Memo RETIA CONSULT, LLC c. 210 896 3432 P.O. Box 831, Bend, OR 97709 1 To: City of Bozeman, Planning Division From: Tammy Wisco, PE, AICP, Retia Consult Date: November 29, 2018 RE: Norton Ranch Community Plan Designation This planning memo is provided in support of the Norton Ranch request for a Community Plan map change during the City’s 2019 update. The request is to change the Norton Ranch land highlighted in Exhibit A-3 to community commercial mixed use. Although this is not a formal land use application, but rather public input to a City process, the City’s criteria and questions for a growth policy amendment have been utilized as a framework for this memo. Similarly, goals and policies of the 2009 Community Plan have been utilized to address the questions, as it is the best information available at this time. Understanding that the 2019 Community Plan will include revised goals and policies, we are happy to provide responses to those policies when they are available. Does the proposed amendment cure a deficiency in the growth policy or result in an improved growth policy which better responds to the needs of the general community? How? The 2009 Community Plan likely did not foresee the rapid rate at which residential and school district growth would occur in West Bozeman1. This rapid expansion has resulted in a West Bozeman residential area lacking a walkable and bikeable commercial core. The responses herein demonstrate support for the proposed designation change, based on existing Community Plan goals and objectives that are focused on complete neighborhoods, with commercial cores, mixed uses and multi-modal transportation options. The proposed amendment both cures a deficiency in the growth policy and results in an improved growth policy due to the rapidly changing circumstances in West Bozeman. The subject properties can serve as a much needed commercial center for both the surrounding residential lands within the city, as well as the rural lands to the west. While the 2009 Community Plan moves away from linear commercial zoning, the subject properties’ location along Huffine will facilitate a commercial center setting due to its ability to serve both urban and rural lands by providing walkable connections to the urban lands to the north and short drive distances for the rural lands to the west. At the suggestion of the City, the Leland Consulting Group was contracted to complete a market analysis for the subject site, specifically focused on a grocery-anchored retail commercial center. As noted by the Leland Consulting Group (Exhibit C), “given the subject property’s location at the western edge of Bozeman, and the lack of significant competition to the west and south, any prospective grocery-anchored center at that site would likely serve a geographically very large territory.” Further, on page 22, the Leland Group notes: For the West Bozeman Retail Market Area, three retail categories appear to be currently leaking spending to stores outside the area: Food & Beverage (grocery), Foodservice & Drinking (restaurants/bars), and Health & Personal Care. Taken together, leaked spending in these three categories amounts to just over $25,000,000. 1 The West Bozeman Retail Market Area growth rate was nearly double that of the City from 2010 to 2014, at 5.4% vs. the city’s 2.8%. Additionally, the West Bozeman area grew much faster than Gallatin County between 2000 and 2010 (West Bozeman grew by 74 percent while Gallatin County grew by 32 percent.) West Bozeman Retail Analysis, Leland Consulting Group, July 2016. Exhibit B - Norton Ranch Community Plan Amendment Request, Planning Memo RETIA CONSULT, LLC c. 210 896 3432 P.O. Box 831, Bend, OR 97709 2 These market analysis results showing significant loss of spending to other areas directly relates to planning concepts in the Community Plan, indicating that local residents in the planning area are traveling outside the area for commercial services. This travel for services results in traffic, wear and tear on roadways, air pollution, and limited opportunity for a walkable/bikeable community. By creating a commercial center adjacent to the residential community as proposed in this request, travel time can be reduced for West Bozeman residents, and a walkable/bikeable neighborhood becomes possible. Does the proposed amendment create inconsistencies within the growth policy, either between the goals and the map or between goals? Why not? If inconsistencies are identified then additional changes must be provided to remove the inconsistencies. Is the proposed amendment consistent with the overall intent of the growth policy? How? As shown in Exhibit A-1, the property immediately adjacent to the east of the subject property is already designated Community Commercial Mixed Use. The proposed Community Plan map change for the subject property would align with this adjacent property, with no conflict in the map. In fact, the consistency of future zoning between these adjacent properties would help the development of the adjacent property by potentially providing improved access. To the immediate north, the properties are designated residential and are largely developed. As acknowledged in the 2009 Community Plan and is expected to be a priority in the 2019 update, the City desires to locate commercial centers near residential areas to reduce traffic and improve the livability of the community. The requested Community Plan change for the subject property directly supports this goal by providing a commercial area that is walkable and bikeable from the existing neighborhoods. The proposed Community Plan map change to Community Commercial Mixed Use for Norton Ranch aligns strongly with the 2009 Community Plan intent, as noted in the following responses. While the 2009 Plan is expected to be replaced by the 2019 update, it is anticipated that the general intent of these goals will remain. Community Plan, p 3-12: Community Commercial Mixed Use provides “basic employment and services necessary for a vibrant community… in a center-based land use pattern...” RESPONSE: The rapid growth of West Bozeman has seen largely residential development at its western reach. The area surrounding the subject properties does not include a commercial center and, as confirmed in the Leland Retail Analysis, residents are leaving the area for commercial services. The subject properties can also serve as a center for commercial services for the rural lands west of the city. Community Plan, p 3-12: “Community Commercial Mixed Use areas are integrated with significant transportation corridors…” RESPONSE: The subject property is located immediately adjacent to Huffine, a principal arterial. The property will be bisected by the future extension of N Laurel Parkway, a collector. Additionally, the residential neighborhoods to the north have been constructed with multiple collectors and local streets for connectivity and pedestrian/bicycle facilities on the streets and through the neighborhoods. As a result, the subject property’s transportation corridors are ideal to support Community Commercial Mixed Use. Exhibit B - Norton Ranch Community Plan Amendment Request, Planning Memo RETIA CONSULT, LLC c. 210 896 3432 P.O. Box 831, Bend, OR 97709 3 Community Plan, p 3-12: “High density residential areas are expected in close proximity [to community commercial mixed use]…” RESPONSE: West Bozeman has grown dramatically in the last ten years, with substantial residential development and schools surrounding the subject property. The adjacent properties to the north include numerous apartments, high density single family and standard single family. These solely residential areas extend greater than a mile (approx 6700 feet) to the north, all the way to Oak Street. Pedestrian and bicycle amenities are integrated into the fabric of the adjacent communities, providing several methods of non-automobile transportation to the subject properties. Does the proposed amendment adversely affect the community as a whole or significant portion by: i. Significantly altering acceptable existing and future land use patterns, as defined in the text and maps of the plan? How does it not? As noted throughout this memo, the proposed Community Plan map change supports the land use patterns by providing a commercial center in the fast-growing West Bozeman. Additionally, the presence of a commercial center at the western city limit will provide easier access for rural residents, further reducing travel time. This integration of commercial and residential land uses can result in decreased travel time, thereby decreasing traffic congestion and air pollution. ii. Requiring unmitigated larger and more expensive improvements to streets, water, sewer, or other public facilities or services and which, therefore, may impact development of other lands? How does it not? iii. Adversely impacting existing uses because of unmitigated greater than anticipated impacts on facilities and services? How does it not? The proposed Norton Ranch Community Plan map change will not result in unmitigated larger and more expensive improvements to public facilities. Norton Ranch (both residential and commercial areas) includes public street easements for Fallon Street, Babcock Street (collector), and Laurel Parkway (collector). The easements are consistent with the grid network developed as part of the City of Bozeman’s 2017 Transportation Master Plan. Norton Ranch has developed these streets at appropriate street standards within the completed phases of the project. Babcock Street has been constructed to a full collector standard from Cottonwood Road, through the full development, to its current terminus at the western extent of the property. Laurel Parkway has been developed as a full collector standard with landscaped median from Babcock Street to May Fly Street. Fallon Street has been constructed as a local street from Cottonwood Road to Stone Fly Drive. This street system grid will support the Community Plan map change to Community Commercial Mixed Use by providing a direct collector connection to Huffine Lane (major arterial) via Laurel Parkway, a collector connection to Cottonwood Road (minor arterial) via Babcock Street, and a collector connection to Durston Road (minor arterial) via Laurel Parkway. Adequate water main infrastructure and pressure exist to supply the proposed Community Plan map change to Community Commercial Mixed Use as well as future developments on adjacent properties. A 12” transmission water main has been installed down Babcock Street to service this development and future projects in the surrounding properties. A 12” water main will be installed in Laurel Parkway south of May Fly Street as identified in the City of Bozeman’s 2016 Water Facility Plan. These 12” transmission mains will provide adequate pressure and capacity for the proposed Community Plan map change to Community Commercial Mixed Use. Eight (8) inch water Exhibit B - Norton Ranch Community Plan Amendment Request, Planning Memo RETIA CONSULT, LLC c. 210 896 3432 P.O. Box 831, Bend, OR 97709 4 distribution mains will be installed off of the 12” transmission mains to provide service to the internal commercial/residential projects. The entire Norton Ranch development (residential zones and proposed commercial districts) is appropriately set up for conveying wastewater from the development to the City’s Wastewater Treatment Plant. A 15” interceptor sewer main was installed down Laurel Parkway to the Norton lift station. The lift station was designed to handle a wide range of wastewater flows from the minimal flows with the initial phases of the development to the full development of the property. The lift station will provide adequate capacity for the proposed Community Plan map change to Community Commercial Mixed Use. Two sanitary sewer force mains (4” and 6” diameter) were installed to be able to manage the wide range of wastewater flows while maintaining minimum scour velocities within the lines. Downstream from the development, the Norton East Ranch outfall diversion and the Davis Lane lift station are scheduled on the Capital Improvements Plan to open up sanitary sewer capacity for the Baxter Creek and Cattail Creek wastewater drainage basins, which include the entire Norton East Ranch property. The Norton Ranch property (including the area proposed with this Community Plan map change) also has guaranteed sanitary sewer allocations as detailed in the Wastewater Collection System Agreement (January 2014). The Norton East Ranch Subdivision has been planned and developed to provide adequate streets, water, sanitary sewer and public facilities to serve the proposed Community Plan map change to Community Commercial Mixed Use as well as development in the surrounding areas. All utilities (water, sewer, power, gas, cable) are readily available for the entire development.2 iv. Negatively affecting the livability of the area of the health and safety of residents? How does it not? The proposed Community Plan designation amendment for the subject property will do the opposite - it will improve the livability of the area and health and safety of residents by providing opportunity for community commercial mixed-uses that are walkable and bikeable from residential neighborhoods, a repeated goal within the 2009 Community Plan. Strong population growth in West Bozeman, combined with lack of retail centers increases travel into the city, increasing traffic and air pollution. In an effort to reduce travel distances and increase alternate modes of transport, a plan amendment to community commercial mixed use is desirable at this location in West Bozeman. The existing integration of pedestrian and bicycle facilities into the existing surrounding residential areas will provide alternative mode connectivity to the proposed Community Commercial Mixed Use areas. The 2009 Community Plan emphasizes the importance of the city’s livability, noting that the 2007 Citizen Survey identified Bozeman’s weaknesses, which threaten the city’s livability. These weaknesses were identified as: • Too much growth • Traffic congestion • Drugs • Taxes • Weeds, homelessness, unsupervised youth 2 Infrastructure summary provided by C&H Engineering & Surveying, Bozeman. Exhibit B - Norton Ranch Community Plan Amendment Request, Planning Memo RETIA CONSULT, LLC c. 210 896 3432 P.O. Box 831, Bend, OR 97709 5 The proposed Community Plan map change from residential to community commercial mixed use for the subject properties will provide an opportunity to reduce travel times for residents in West Bozeman and rural areas to the west, thereby reducing traffic congestion. It also keeps the commercial activity within the city limits, reducing the need or potential market for commercial growth expansion outside of the city. While weeds, drugs and homelessness/unsupervised youth may not be a direct land use issue, the infusion of active commercial areas with vibrant walkable street fronts does improve visibility and discourage unwanted behavior in these areas. The 2009 Community Plan highlights the importance of public health and safety, with a focus on provision of adequate public services (water, wastewater, transportation). While the 2009 Community Plan will be replaced by the 2019 Community Plan, the intent to protect public health and safety is presumed to still be paramount. As noted above, significant and adequate public services have been provided to the subject property through the development of the adjacent residential neighborhood and are available to serve a community commercial mixed use area. The 2009 Community Plan also addresses public health and safety through the design of neighborhoods, emphasizing the importance of multi-modal options, such as walking and biking: “Community Plan 15.3.6 Public Health and Safety Subdivision design should encourage physical activity and a healthy community.” Community Plan 3.5 Future Land Use Map: “The health and well-being of Bozeman’s residents are impacted by how the community is planned and built. Development patterns affect dependency on motor vehicles. Communities that provide options for living close to work and services, as well as the choice to walk or bike as part of normal daily life can facilitate mental and physical health.” These statements highlight the importance of commercial centers within walkable and bikeable distances from residential areas. The proposed change from a residential designation to a commercial designation will provide the opportunity for a commercial center for the rapidly growing West Bozeman residential area, providing options for living close to work and services. The 2009 Community Plan supports this approach in numerous goals and objectives, with the rationale that “Good neighborhoods allow choices in housing, recreation, modes of transportation, options for commerce, work, and entertainment while providing a healthy environment and a sense of place and identity that residents can call home.” “Goal C-2: Community Circulation — Create a circulation system both vehicular and pedestrian that is fully connected, integrated, and designed for ease of use.” “Goal C-3: Neighborhood Design – New neighborhoods shall be pedestrian oriented, contain a variety of housing types and densities, contain parks and other public spaces, have a commercial center and defined boundaries.” “Objective C-3.4: Create neighborhood Commercial Centers that will provide uses to meet consumer demands from surrounding Residential Districts for everyday goods and services, and will be a pedestrian oriented place that serves as a focal point for the surrounding neighborhoods.” Exhibit B - Norton Ranch Community Plan Amendment Request, Planning Memo RETIA CONSULT, LLC c. 210 896 3432 P.O. Box 831, Bend, OR 97709 6 In addition to the retail market analysis, the Leland Consulting Group completed an analysis of community benefits and retail trends for the subject property (July 2016, Exhibit D). The report concluded that the conversion of the subject site to retail use as part of a broader mixed-use site plan, other community benefits should be encouraged, such as: • Reduced traffic congestion • Improved access to food • Supporting active transportation • Access to walkable commercial designation The study concluded by noting that “a walkable retail center at the subject site will not only meet market demand, but provide community benefits that align with City of Bozeman goals and objectives to increase active transportation and community health.” The City of Bozeman’s Community Plan notes that neighborhood commercial centers should be within ½ mile of residential areas in order to encourage alternative modes of transportation use and reduction of automobile congestion. The Leland Group notes that having local shopping areas near the places people live and work is an essential aspect of walkability. Figure 3 of Exhibit C shows half mile radii around existing grocery-anchored retail centers within the city. The map demonstrates a dearth of these resources in West Bozeman, as existing and future residential areas to the north and south of the subject site are not within convenient walking or biking to existing commercial centers for routine shopping goods. The Leland Group further notes the need for reasonable access to fresh and nutritious food. Figure 4 of Exhibit C demonstrates that there is no significant standard grocery store serving West Bozeman and the nearby Four Corners community. This creates additional traffic through and from West Bozeman to more central areas of the city. The Plan change of the subject site to community commercial mixed use would support a zone change that could allow a grocery retail and commercial mixed uses. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP People Places Prosperity Revitalizing Downtowns Creating Partnerships Targeting Real Estate Success Shaping Financial Strategies Strengthening Community Enabling Sustainability & Livability Making Cities Work 610 SW Alder Street Suite 1008 Portland Oregon 97205-3611 503.222.1600 www.lelandconsulting.com Memorandum Date July 28, 2016 To Kevin Spencer From Alisa Pyszka, Senior Associate Ted Kamp, Senior Associate Subject West Bozeman Retail Analysis Project Bozeman GPA-ZC EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City of Bozeman has proposed that a 75-acre site in the western portion of the city be considered for plan amendments and zone changes resulting in increased overall site acreage designated for commercial (and, specifically, retail) uses. This analysis focuses on projecting the market viability of retail development on the subject property based on retail supply and demand conditions across a broader West Bozeman Retail Market Area1, existing and future demographic factors, and an evaluation of the study area/site. We conclude that grocery-anchored neighborhood/community scale retail is viable to some extent now, due to pent-up demand and limited competition on the west side, and that market support will grow considerably over the next ten to 20 years driven by the projected increase in West Bozeman Retail Market Area households (and, to a lesser extent, by growth in visitor spending). Under reasonable market assumptions, the subject property could support absorb approximately 235,000 to 364,000 square feet of new retail space by 2036, requiring from 27 to 42 parcel acres zoned for retail use. This subject property absorption represents up to a 40 percent capture rate (market share) of future West Bozeman Retail Market Area grocery demand for grocery retail, and up to 26 percent capture of Market Area demand across all retail categories. The subject property is, in fact, geographically well-positioned, relative to both competing centers and to sources of rooftop and traffic-based demand, to attract significant retail development in the near-term. Over the longer term, however, the existing land use and zoning entitlements appear potentially inadequate for supporting the otherwise-attainable commercial build-out potential of the site – suggesting the need for additional acreage designated for retail use. 1 A custom trade area boundary defined later in this document and illustrated in Figure 4 LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 2 INTRODUCTION The City of Bozeman is experiencing strong population growth across the community. Along with growth comes an increase in automobile traffic and congestion. In an effort to reduce travel distances and encourage alternative modes of transportation, the City has proposed that property in the western portion of the city is considered for a plan amendment and zone change from residential to commercial use. The specific site under consideration is located at the northwest corner of the intersection of Huffine Lane and Advance Drive and is approximately 75 acres in size. Figure 1: Subject Property The subject property is currently designated in the comprehensive plan for future residential use (RD) on the north and west three-quarters of the study area and Business Park (BP) of the southeast one-quarter only. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 3 Figure 2: Future Land Use (As Currently Designated) LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 4 Figure 3: Half-mile Radii Around Existing Grocery-Anchored Retail Centers LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 5 RETAIL ANALYSIS West Bozeman Retail Market Area A grocery-anchored neighborhood or community shopping center typically has a market area (encompassing most competition and rooftop demand) with a radius of between 1.5 and 3.0 miles in most urban and suburban settings. Any actual market area is unlikely to be a perfect circle, of course, as it may be influenced by drive times, physical and cultural barriers, competitive options, etc. Given the subject property’s location at the western edge of Bozeman, and the lack of significant competition to the west and south, any prospective grocery-anchored center at that site would likely serve a geographically very large territory2. The present analysis and demand estimates contained in this report use a market area definition encompassing a 133 square mile semi-rural area generally include the western portion of Bozeman (generally west of 19th Street) and extending located to the west and southwest of the city of Bozeman. The vast majority of customer rooftops will be located within a much tighter area extending just beyond Four Corners. This market area definition is necessarily generalized at this stage of analysis, given the site’s potential to attract a range of different possible anchor tenants. In reality, the geographic reach of market area “draw” varies substantially depending on the specific store brand and product offering, store size, and future competition. Usually, larger stores tend to have broader market areas, but even a small store can have a very wide reach given a sufficiently differentiated offering or strong loyalty base (e.g. Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s). The boundary outlined in red in Figure 4, is a custom market area intended to encompass the most likely sources of demand and competition for retail development contemplated for the subject site. Referred to in this analysis as the West Bozeman Retail Market Area, this geography serves as the basis for generating demographic comparisons and future demand estimates shown in this report. 2 Actually a fairly common phenomenon for Montana and other Mountain West markets. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 6 Figure 4 - Subject Site and West Bozeman Retail Market Area Population and Household Growth West Bozeman is a rapidly growing semi-rural area that encompasses a portion of the city of Bozeman to the east, the developing area of Four Corners to the west, and an expanse of land north and south along State Highway 85. Since the year 2000, the area has grown by over 74 percent and continues to be a target for investment and development. Subject Site Retail Market Area Boundary Retail Employment LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 7 Figure 5: Existing Household Density LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 8 Figure 6: 2010 to 2014 Household Growth While post-recession residential growth has been more concentrated within the City of Bozeman itself, as shown in Figure 6, the rate of population growth for the West Bozeman Retail Market Area – taken as a whole – has been considerably more steep. Note that the map highlights the northern and eastern extents of the Market Area, given the relatively sparsely populated western and southern portions. Figure 7 shows estimates for standing population in 2010 versus 2014 for the Retail Market Area, the City of Bozeman, and Gallatin County overall. In gaining just over 5,500 residents over that 4-year span, the Retail Market Area showed an annualized growth rate of 5.4%, versus 2.8 percent citywide and 2.1% countywide. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 9 Figure 7: Population Growth Comparison, 2010-2014 Source: Prospera Business Network 2015 Economic Profile of Gallatin & Park Counties; City of Bozeman; and Leland Consulting Group For the 20-year retail demand analysis in this report, Leland Consulting Group uses a forward-looking annual growth rate of 4.5%. While lower than the recent post-recession growth rate shown above, it represents a more realistic blended rate, taking into account business cycle uncertainties and a now larger base amount of existing households. For purposes of comparison, the Montana State Demographer, using eREMI forecasting methodology, projects a 1.45% annual growth rate for Gallatin County overall between 2015 and 2025 – also a substantial tempering relative to the 2010-2014 historical rate. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 10 Other Demographic Factors Figure 8 - Population by Age Comparison (2015) Source: ESRI, Leland Consulting Group, 2015 Figure 10 above shows the age distribution comparison between the West Bozeman Area and larger geographies. Generally, the area’s population skews younger, with the largest age cohort between the ages of 15 and 34. The presence of Montana State University in south central Bozeman is a major reason for the observed skew towards younger residents, along with the area’s appeal as a scenic and active recreational hub. As with most other areas in the U.S., Montana will experience waves of growth in Baby-Boomer and Millennial segments in the coming decade. The latter group, now aged primarily in their 20s, will move into prime grocery-shopping age by 2025 as many begin to establish families. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% >15 15 - 34 35 -54 55 - 74 75+ West Bozeman Area City of Bozeman Gallatin County Montana USA LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 11 Figure 9 - Households by Income (2015) Source: ESRI, Leland Consulting Group, 2015 Market Area income levels skew higher than national and state averages. The market area has a greater percentage of households within each income group above $50,000 per year, with the exception of very highest income category (those earning more than $150,000 annually), where the market area is surpassed by both the county and Nation. The area’s median income is $59,000 which is over $10,000 more than the median income at the state level and within the city of Bozeman overall. Figure 10 gives an illustration the geographic distribution of affluence, based the percent of residents who earn more than $3,600 per month in wages. Note the pockets of higher wage workers in south Bozeman, parts of the west side and much of the area’s unincorporated land. The area around Montana State University shows up as being low wage on average, but this tends to understate the spending power of college students (as their sources of disposable income tend to be supplemented by family support and higher use of personal credit). 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% < $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $74,999 $75,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 + West Bozeman Area City of Bozeman Gallatin County Montana USA LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 12 Figure 10: Area Residents by Wages LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 13 Figure 11 - Education (2015) Source: ESRI, Leland Consulting Group, 2015 The West Bozeman Area has a highly educated population. Over 32 percent of the area’s population have a bachelor’s degree and over 15 percent have graduate/professional degrees. These rates are much higher than that education levels at the state level and national level. 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35% Less than 9th Grade 9th - 12th Grade, No Diploma High School Graduate GED/Alternative Credential Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree West Bozeman Area City of Bozeman Gallatin County Montana USA LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 14 Figure 12 - Household Size (2015) Source: ESRI, Leland Consulting Group, 2015 The West Bozeman Area has average household size levels. 64 percent of the area’s population live in 1 or 2 person households. This compares to that national average of 60 percent, but is lower than the city of Bozeman at 70 percent. Lifestyle Segments Tapestry segments are a series of demographic categories (also called psychographic profiles) developed by ESRI, a national third-party demographic information provider. Tapestry segments can give a more nuanced understanding of West Bozeman’s unique demographic characteristics by describing a population based on its lifestyles, attitudes, purchasing patterns, and interests. The benefit of Tapestry segments is that they go beyond raw numbers to describe groups of people in everyday language, combining data from many sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor, and other private sector data sources. The figure below provides a brief overview of the top five segments in the West Bozeman area by percentage of households. West Bozeman’s top five Tapestries, that together represent 96.4 percent of the area’s population, are highlighted below. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1 2 3 4+ West Bozeman Area City of Bozeman Gallatin County Montana USA LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 15 Rank Tapestry Segment Percent West Bozeman Households Percent U.S. Households 1 Emerald City 53.5% 1.4% 2 College Towns 18% 0.9% 3 Middleburg 13.2% 2.8% 4 Green Acres 6.6% 3.2% 5 The Great Outdoors 5.1% 1.6% Source: ESRI, 2016 The following descriptions explain in brief detail characteristics that define each of West Bozeman’s top five Tapestries. Each description provides insight regarding the rental, home ownership and income distribution indicated in the above figures. Emerald City (53.5 percent) - Young, mobile, and more likely to rent. This group is well connected to the internet, and prefer organic foods and environmentally friendly purchases. Incomes are around the national median. These households are well educated, travel frequently, and spend entertainment dollars on music and art College Towns (18 percent) – Young, thrifty spending, renters. This group is digitally connected, but have limited incomes. The overwhelming majority of these households are renters. They prefer pedestrian and bike friendly areas, as well as a connection to local entertainment, and the outdoors. Middleburg (13.2 percent) – Conservative, family- oriented households living in semirural subdivisions. They are thrifty and willing to carry some debt, but already investing in their futures. They prefer American-made products and travel within the United States. Somewhat younger than the population at large, their average age is 35 years and average household size is 2.73 people. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 16 Green Acres (6.6 percent) – Avid do-it-yourselfers who enjoy country living and self-reliance. They are invested in maintaining and remodeling their homes and yards, often turning some of the land into gardens. They enjoy outdoor recreation and are generally conservative in their outlook. Their average age is 43 years and average household size is 2.69 people. The Great Outdoors (5.1 percent) – Educated empty nesters living an active but modest lifestyle. These households are DIY oriented and prefer to be working in their gardens or out on their land. They’re generally more educated than the overall population and despite their age, prefer to work during typically early retirement years. West Bozeman Demographic Snapshot  The West Bozeman area grew at a much faster rate than Gallatin County as a whole, between 2000 and 2010. During this period the West Bozeman area grew by 74 percent, and the Gallatin County grew by 32 percent.  West Bozeman has a slightly higher than average percentage of its population living in one or two- person households. 64 percent of the population in the West Bozeman area live in one or two person households. This compares to the national average of 60 percent, but is lower than the City of Bozeman’s figure of 70 percent.  The West Bozeman area’s average household size is in line with the state of Montana as a whole. The West Bozeman area’s average household size is 2.34 compared to 2.35 for all of Montana.  The West Bozeman area’s population is generally younger than the State’s with the largest age group being Millennials, ages 15 to 34. The median age for the area is 30, compared to 32 for Gallatin County, and 39 for the state of Montana  The West Bozeman area’s median household income is much higher than both the State and the city of Bozeman’s median incomes. The West Bozeman area has a median income of $59,000, compared to the city of Bozeman at $46,000, and the state of Montana at $47,000.  About 37 percent of housing units in the West Bozeman area are renter occupied. This is higher than the State’s rate of only 27 percent renters.  The West Bozeman area’s population has higher educational levels than that of the state of Montana. Over 32 percent of the area’s population have a bachelor’s degree and over 15 percent have a graduate/professional degree, versus only 20 percent with a bachelors and 10 percent with a graduate/professional degree at the state level. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 17 Employment Growth 3.2% annually for City of Bozeman (LEHD) from 2004 to 2014 Total Employment 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008- 2014 2010- 2014 Gallatin County 49,081 45,324 45,043 46,419 47,718 50,315 55,533 6,452 10,490 Annualized Employment Growth -7.7% -0.6% 3.1% 2.8% 5.4% 10.4% 2.2% 5.4% Residential Building Permit Activity After an extended period of recessionary decline, Gallatin County has nearly regained its pre-2008 residential construction pace of 1,400 to 1,900 units annually. 723 616 683 761 1,930 1,681 1,750 1,411 506 391 398 387 739 1,349 1,191 1,496 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Gallatin County Annual Building Permits (units) LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 18 RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS Trade Area and Primary Competition Figure 13: Bozeman Supermarkets Grocery-anchored retail in the Bozeman area is currently more centered around proximity to major arterial and interstate access points, rather than strictly based on household densities. With the potential addition of an 85,000 Winco supermarket near the interstate, west of the 19th Avenue interchange, this mismatch between existing retail and existing rooftops will only be exacerbated. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 19 Table 1: Bozeman/Belgrade Market Supermarkets Name Location Est. Size (s.f.) Est. Yr. Built Notes Rosauer's SEC Huffine & Fowler 60,000 2007 Spokane-based chain; includes Huckleberry's Natural Market within store Albertson's University Square, SEC 23rd & Main 54,000 1980/2003 added 12,000 s.f. in 2003 remodel Albertson's Belgrade 48,000 1998 Safeway NEC 19th & Main 58,000 2011 closed location at 900 W Main to open this location at 19th & Main Smith's NEC 19th & Oak 54,000 2000 Walmart Supercenter SEC I-90 & 7th (at Oak) 80,000 2004 approx. grocery portion of 205,000 s.f. overall store Costco Valley Center, S of I-90 @ 19th 65,000 1997 approx. grocery portion of 125,000 s.f. overall club store W Main Co-op 9th & Main 13,000 1992/2002 expansion & remodel in 2002; full service but specialized in organic & local Downtown Co-op SWC Black & Main, downtown 5,000 2010 deli-focused expansion of W Main location CVS 19th & Main 12,000 2013 moved from location near 9th & Main Town & Country 1 block north of 19th & Main 22,000 1970 no-frills, warehouse-style local chain Town & Country Belgrade 20,000 2015 purchased Lee & Dad's grocery & remodeled in place Town & Country 11th & Lincoln, MSU adjacent 24,000 2010 scaled down from a planned 30,000 s.f. concept after considerable public debate Heeb's East Main Grocery Wallace & Main (to Highland & Main) 10,000 1960/2016* planned move to Highland & Main by late 2016, with expansion to 20,000 sf. WinCo (proposed) 19th & Cattail (near Target) 85,000 2017-18* preliminary planning review Roxy's Market Big Sky 17,000 2014 limited-service local Hungry Moose Market & Deli Big Sky 2,000 2005 more of a convenience store, but for years the only grocery option for the affluent and growing Big Sky area LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 20 Supermarket Commentary Rosauer’s – 60,000 s.f. full service grocery store located less than two miles to the east of the subject. 2007 construction with dedicated (internal) organic/natural section branded Huckleberry’s Natural Market. Spokane-based chain. Construction of other pads & key sites in this western-most community center stalled during the recession. Albertson’s – 54,000 s.f. full service national chain grocer located approximately 8 miles northwest of the subject site. Bozeman store is part of older University Square shopping center (1980), but expanded by 12,000 s.f. and remodeled in 2004 in anticipation of Walmart Supercenter competition. Belgrade store is slightly smaller, at 48,000 s.f. Safeway – 58,000 s.f. full service national chain located approximately three miles to the east of the subject site. Moved 9 blocks west in 2011 from original site at 900 W. Main. Town & Country – Montana-based grocer with approximately half-sized store formats. Full service, but limited selection/SKUs. Original store at 19th & Main with new Bozeman location adjacent to MSU at 11th & Lincoln. Recently purchased Lee & Dad’s grocery in Belgrade (2015) to remodel as Town & Country Walmart Supercenter – 205,000 s.f. big box grocery and department store located four miles to the northeast of the subject. Grocery portion is approximately 100,000 s.f. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 21 Costco – 100,000+ s.f. wholesale big box/club store located less than four miles north of the subject site at interstate location. Approximately 65,000 s.f. devoted to supermarket goods. Smiths – 50,000 s.f. traditional full-service grocery. Chain operated primarily in Western U.S. Located in Bridger Peaks shopping center with apparel and furnishings co-tenants. Co-op West Main – 13,000 s.f. specialty grocer located three miles to the east of the subject site. Local co-op membership model store with strong loyal following. Local/natural emphasis. Co-op Downtown – 5,000 s.f. upscale specialty grocer located four miles east of the subject in downtown Bozeman. This is a deli-oriented extension of the West Main primary store. Heeb’s – Longstanding 10,000 s.f. limited service neighborhood specialty grocer anchoring east Bozeman market. Heeb’s has announced plans to move from their current location at Main & Wallace several block further east to allow for an expansion to 20,000 s.f. (although this tenant could conceivably consider other, even west side, locations. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 22 Estimating Market Area-wide Retail Demand Future demand for new grocery-anchored retail space on the subject property can be estimated based several factors, including:  recapture-able existing spending leakage  new spending potential from anticipated household growth  growth in non-resident visitors/tourists When new demand from these sources is totaled across the Market Area as a whole, we then estimate the capture rate (or market share) that could be achieved by a project on the subject property, based in part on known planned & proposed projects and an evaluation of site characteristics. Recaptured Leakage First, the spending potential of households living within the identified Retail Market Area is compared to estimated actual sales from stores in that same area. In store categories where spending potential of Market Area households exceeds sales in the same area, spending is said to be leaking outside the Market Area (i.e. being spent at other stores outside the area). For the West Bozeman Retail Market Area, three retail categories appear to be currently leaking spending to stores outside the area: Food & Beverage (grocery), Foodservice & Drinking (restaurants/bars) and Health & Personal Care. Taken together, leaked spending in these three categories amounts to just over $25,000,000. This is summarized in Figure 14. For many categories such as apparel and electronics, these shopping patterns are base on the locations of major regional shopping centers and are unlikely to change much over time. More convenience-oriented daily shopping categories such as grocery and pharmacy, however, tend to see leakage diminish over time. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 23 Figure 14: Retail Market Area Spending Leakage Based on typical store sales per square foot, we estimate that this leakage alone could support approximately 25,000 s.f. in new retail within the Market Area (assuming 50% of grocery leakage and 20% of dining leakage could be recouped). New Spending Potential from Household Growth For faster-growing areas such as the West Bozeman Retail Market Area, household growth is typically the primary source of future projected retail demand. As discussed earlier, we project an increase in new Market Area households to be approximately 4.5% annualy over the next 10 years3. To calculate future demand potential from this growth, we assume that Market Area spending potential will increase at the same pace. The ten year increment in spending potential is then divided by expected average sales per square foot in each major retail category (excluding auto-related) to arrive at new square footage of market support. Current annual retail spending potential of West Bozeman Retail Market Area households, estimated at $370 million, is expected to reach $575 million over the next ten years (in constant 2015 inflation-adjusted dollars). This increase in spending potential should translate into market-wide demand for just over 600,000 square feet of new retail space over ten years (and 1.2 million square feet over 20 years) across major retail categories4. 3 After ten years, we assume a moderate slowing in the annual growth rate, such that growth from year 11 to year 20 proceeds at a linear (or “straight-line”) fashion, rather than continuing to increase exponentially. In other words, the absolute household growth between now and 2026 is assumed to occur again between 2027 and 2036. 4 This estimate excludes automotive retail categories but does include categories typically excluded from retail spending data (but often found in retail centers), such as medical/dental/chiropractic clinics, real estate and personal financial services, commercial banks, cinemas and fitness centers. $71 $45 $20$17.7 $5.2 $2.2 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 Food & Beverage (grocery) Foodservice & Drinking Places Health & Personal Care(in millions)Household Demand (Spending Potential) Current Leakage ($) LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 24 New Spending Potential from Visitor Growth The Bozeman economy is supported in part by retail and dining spending from non-resident tourists and other visitors. Leland Consulting Group conservatively estimates visitor spending to account for between 15% and 20% of all retail says in grocery, dining, sporting goods and miscellaneous retail categories. Presumably, this retail spending is already served by the standing retail inventory in the market. Over time, the volume of visitors is likely to increase at roughly the same rate as population growth. The added retail demand from visitors is thus added to the total market-wide demand, as shown in Figure 15. Figure 15: Market Area New Retail Demand by Source, per Decade Source: Leland Consulting Group, using data from ESRI and growth assumptions discussed earlier Added to the 1.2 million square feet of 20-year demand from household growth and 50,000+ square feet from recapturable leakage, the overall West Bozeman Retail Market Area could support up to 1.4 million square feet of total new retail demand by 2036. Estimated Subject Property Capture/Absorption The previous two charts showed demand at the overall West Bozeman Retail Market Area level. Despite its favorable site characteristics, the subject property will, of course, capture only a portion of the future retail development anticipated to occur across this large geography. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Furniture and Home Furnishings Building Material, Garden Equip Health and Personal Care Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book, Music Electronics and Appliance Clothing and Accessories Misc. Store Retailers Foodservice and Drinking Places Other (incl. cinema, prof./med. office, banks, etc.) Food and Beverage (grocery) General Merchandise square feet of new demand Household Growth Leakage Recapture New Visitor Demand LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 25 Based site known site factors including visibility, access, surrounding land uses, infrastructure and demographics (under an assumed zoning/land-use designation change), we estimate the following conservative and attainable absorption levels for the subject property, broken out by retail category. Category-specific capture levels are likely to vary considerably over time, as the center and surrounding area evolve. The overall total supportable square footage is less likely to vary substantially within the ten-year horizon considered here, barring unforeseen major changes in regional growth patterns. Table 2: 20-year Conservative and Attainable Subject Property Capture Market Area-wide Demand (s.f.) Conservative Subject Capture Rate 20-yr Conservative Capture (s.f.) Attainable Subject Capture Rate 20-yr Attainable Capture (s.f.) Food & Beverage (grocery) 240,000 30% 72,000 40% 96,000 General Merchandise 320,000 10% 32,000 20% 64,000 Foodservice & Drinking Places 167,000 20% 34,000 30% 50,000 Other (incl. cinema, prof./med. office, banks, etc.) 168,000 15% 24,000 25% 42,000 Health & Personal Care 75,000 30% 22,000 40% 30,000 Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book, Music 73,000 20% 14,000 30% 22,000 Misc. Store Retailers 100,000 10% 10,000 20% 20,000 Electronics & Appliance 80,000 10% 8,000 15% 12,000 Clothing & Accessories 80,000 10% 8,000 15% 12,000 Building Material, Garden Equip 67,000 10% 6,000 15% 10,000 Furniture & Home Furnishings 40,000 10% 4,000 15% 6,000 Total (of Non- Automotive Retail) 1,410,000 17% 234,000 26% 364,000 Caveats The difference between conservative and attainable estimates shown here is intended to account for currently unknown planned competitive projects in the Market Area, as well as potential variations is the design, construction, tenanting and marketing of development on the subject property. A potentially larger LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | West Bozeman Retail Analysis | 26 source of variation could come from the underlying household growth rate that is experienced in the west Bozeman market over the coming decade. Our use of a 4.5% annual growth rate for the next ten years is conservative relative to recent growth, but could potentially overstate demand under a scenario of prolonged regional or national recession, for instance. That said, growth in Bozeman prior to the 2008-2010 recession was routinely higher than 5% annually, especially on the west side. As such, the retail demand forecast used here could understate demand, should regional growth resume at pre-recession rates. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP People Places Prosperity Revitalizing Downtowns Creating Partnerships Targeting Real Estate Success Shaping Financial Strategies Strengthening Community Enabling Sustainability & Livability Making Cities Work 610 SW Alder Street Suite 1008 Portland Oregon 97205-3611 503.222.1600 www.lelandconsulting.com Memorandum Date July 28, 2016 To Kevin Spencer, Empire Construction From Alisa Pyszka, Senior Associate Ted Kamp, Senior Associate Subject Community Benefits and Retail Trends Project Bozeman GPA-ZC EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City of Bozeman has proposed that a portion of a 75-acre site in the western portion of the city is considered for a plan amendment and zone change from residential to commercial use. This memorandum provides information regarding the potential community benefits and current retail demand trends of a walkable commercial center that could be realized with the approval of the plan amendment and zone change. A separate retail analysis by Leland Consulting Group determines that there is a need for retail on the subject site based on market demand. In addition to strictly market-related real estate factors, conversion of the subject property to retail use (particularly a grocery- anchored neighborhood/community center), as part of a broader mixed-use site plan, should encourage other community benefits, such as: • Reduced traffic congestion • Improved access to food • Supporting active transportation • Access to walkable commercial destination Based on the following information, we believe that a walkable retail center at the subject site will not only meet market demand but provide community benefits that align with City of Bozeman goals and objectives to increase active transportation and community health. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | Community Benefits and Retail Trends | 2 COMMUNITY BENEFITS The City of Bozeman is experiencing strong population growth across the community. Along with growth comes an increase in automobile traffic and congestion. In an effort to reduce travel distances and encourage alternative modes of transportation, the City has proposed that property in the western portion of the city is considered for a plan amendment and zone change from residential to commercial use. The specific site under consideration is located at the northwest corner of the intersection of Huffine Lane and Advance Drive and is approximately 75 acres in size. Figure 1: Subject Property LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | Community Benefits and Retail Trends | 3 Figure 2: Current Land Use Designations The City is prepared to consider the plan amendment proposal for the following reasons. 1) Reduced Traffic Congestion: The City of Bozeman has determined that in order to reduce automobile congestion and encourage alternative modes of transportation use, neighborhood commercial centers should be within ½ mile of residential areas. This policy aligns with recent research that finds that 45 percent of daily trips, on average, are made for shopping and running errands; therefore encouraging walking as a preferred means of making those trips is an important strategy in reducing obesity and improving health. It is also important to reducing energy usage and carbon emissions. Researchers also argue that compact walkable settlement patterns are important as a strategy for reducing automobile travel and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. An essential aspect of walkability is having local shopping areas LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | Community Benefits and Retail Trends | 4 near the places people work and live. As illustrated in the following figure, existing and future residential areas to the north and south of the subject site are not within convenient walking or biking to existing commercial centers for routine shopping goods. Figure 3: Half-mile Radii around Existing Grocery-Anchored Retail Centers 2) Improved Access to Food: There is growing recognition of the need for equitable community access to fresh and nutritious food. As indicated in the following figure, there is no significant standard grocery store serving the west side of the city and the nearby Four Corners community, which has no grocery store at all. While much less densely populated, the surrounding unincorporated communities well to the west and south of Bozeman are similarly underserved. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | Community Benefits and Retail Trends | 5 Figure 4: Bozeman Supermarkets 3) Supporting Active Transportation: The subject site is adjacent to a dedicated and partially constructed bike route and trail system that surrounds and connects the site to surrounding residential and recreation areas that encourages alternative modes of travel. The proposed zone change will allow for a desired use that will leverage this infrastructure investment and serve the residents as intended. LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | Community Benefits and Retail Trends | 6 Figure 5: Site in Relation to Trails & Park/Open Space LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | Community Benefits and Retail Trends | 7 4) Access to Walkable Commercial Destination: If the commercial area is developed as a pedestrian oriented or “walkable” commercial center that leverages the trail systems, it will be a unique place serving an unmet need of the community. Currently the only type of environment that serves this type of experience is downtown Bozeman, which is on the east side of the city and is too far for alternative modes of travel from the west side of town. As indicated in Figure , there are adequate bike facilities within the northwest quadrant, however there are significantly less residents using alternative modes of transit as indicated in Figure 6. This missing walkable destination such as the downtown core or the university campus clearly impacts the incentive for residents to utilize alternative modes of transit in the northwest quadrant of town. Figure 6: Bike, Ped and Transit Commute by Census Tract LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Bozeman GPA-ZC | Community Benefits and Retail Trends | 8 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS Retail customers are increasingly demanding an experience and social interaction in order for them to choose to shop in traditional storefront environments over the internet. (You can’t buy a cup of coffee or check the quality of produce online.). Walkable commercial areas serve to provide the physical environment that enhances the traditional retail experience of a strip commercial center. Walkable Commercial Area A “walkable commercial area” usually means that it is possible for a significant fraction of patrons to arrive by some other mode than driving, and that they are in a welcome environment for strolling, meeting others and resting for a few moments. In short, they do not have to get in their car to visit store after store. In commercial terms, retail districts serving mainly nearby residents are usually referred to as “neighborhood shopping areas” or “community shopping areas,” depending upon their size and components. Industry standards for these types of commercial centers are defined by Urban Land Institute in the following Figure 7. The anticipated retail development that would occur, if the plan amendment and zone change is approved, would be up to approximately 364,000 square feet in size, which aligns with the industry standard for retail types that are “walkable”. Figure 7: Industry Definitions for Walkable Commercial Areas Neighborhood Shopping Center Anchors Supermarket and Drug Store Number of Stores 10 – 40 stores Total Retail Space 30,000 – 100,000 square feet Site Area 3 – 10 acres Market Area Population 10,000 – 30,000 people Market Area Radius 1 - 3 miles Community Shopping Center Anchors Junior Department or Discount Store Number of Stores 25 – 80 stores Total Retail Space 100,000 – 450,000 square feet Site Area 10 – 30 acres Market Area Population 30,000 – 75,000 Market Area Radius 3 – 8 miles Source: Urban Land Institute & International Council of Shopping Centers. (2008). Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers / The SCORE 2008. Washington, D.C.: Urban Land Institute. A “walkable commercial area” describes places with a diverse range of local-serving shops and services, where a substantial fraction of patrons arrive by walking, cycling or taking mass transit, where there are good pedestrian links to adjacent neighborhoods, and where pedestrians are treated well once they arrive. These areas often consist of grocery, restaurants, coffee shops and local services. Based on the above information, we believe that a walkable retail center at the subject site will not only meet market demand but provide community benefits that align with City of Bozeman goals and objectives to increase active transportation and community health.