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HomeMy WebLinkAbout11 - Traffic Impact Study - South University District Ph 1 TRAFFIC IMPACT STUDY -' PRELIMINARY REPORT T for SOUTH UNIVERSITY DISTRICT PHASE I DEVELOPMENT L Bozeman, Montana Prepared for STAHLY ENGINEERING r t a Prepared by MARVIN & ASSOCIATES 1300 North Transtech Way Billings, MT 59102 TRAFFIC IMPACT STUDY PRELIMINARY REPORT for SOUTH UNIVERSITY DISTRICT PHASE 1 DEVELOPMENT Bozeman, Montana Prepared for STAHLY ENGINEERING Prepared by Z=: � MARVIN & ASSOCIATES 1300 North Transtech Way Billings, MT 59102 November 8, 2011 P.T.O.E. # 259 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE INTRODUCTION 1 PROPOSED SITE DEVELOPMENT 1 EXISTING CONDITIONS 2 Streets & Intersections 2 Existing Traffic Volumes 3 Existing Capacity 6 DEVELOPMENT TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS 7 Trip Generations 7 Trip Distribution 11 Traffic Assignment 11 TRAFFIC IMPACTS 13 Existing Plus Development Traffic Volumes 13 Capacity 15 Future Traffic 16 Future Capacity 18 CONCLUSIONS 19 APPENDIX A—TRAFFIC VOLUMES APPENDIX B — CAPACITY CALCULATIONS LIST OF TABLES PAGE Table 1. Existing (2011) Peak Hour capacity Analysis Summary 6 Table 2. Vehicular Trip Generation Rate Research Summary 8 Table 3. Trip Generation South University District 10 Table 4. Existing (2011) Plus Site Traffic Peak Hour Capacity Analysis Summary 15 Table 4. Year 2015 Traffic Plus Site — Peak Hour Capacity Analysis Summary 18 LIST OF FIGURES PAGE Figure 1. Existing (May 2011) Traffic Volume Counts 4 Figure 2. 2011 AWT & Existing Peak Design Hour Traffic Projections 5 Figure 3. South University District Phase 1 — Full Development Traffic Assignment 12 Figure 4. Existing Peak Design Hour Traffic Plus Phase 1 Full Development Traffic 14 Figure 5. Year 2015 Design Hour Traffic Plus Phase 1 Full Development Traffic 17 ii Marvin &Associates South University District Phase 1 Development TIS MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 INTRODUCTION The following narratives serve as a summary report of operational impacts that could be associated with the proposed Phase 1 development of the South University Way Subdivision. The narrative figures and attachments encompass all of the intersections that would potentially be impacted by Phase 1 development, with the primary focus being centered on the intersection of Kagy and South11th Avenue. PROPOSED SITE DEVELOPMENT The proposed development property would be located south of Kagy Boulevard with the northern boundary parallel to Stadium Drive; the eastern boundary located along an extension of University Way; the southern boundary along an extension of Stucky Road from the west; and the western boundary along an internal subdivision street. This property is Phase 1, Lot 1 of a large tract of land east of South 19th Avenue and south of Kagy Boulevard that would eventually be developed at some point in the future. The property is currently zoned as "Residential Emphasis Mixed Use. Phase 1 development will accommodate approximately 480 resident units (bedrooms) contained within an apartment complex on 10.77 acres. In addition to the apartment complex, there would be two residences for occupation by facility staff. Also within the Phase 1 property boundary, it is anticipated that complimentary commercial buildings totaling 22,000 square feet of floor area will be built on 1.82 acres of Phase 1 land at some future date. This Traffic Impact Study (TIS) addresses potential impacts associated with full development of both residential and commercial land uses within the Phase 1 property boundary. Access to the property will initially be served by University Way (extension of S. 11th Avenue). In future development phases, it has been proposed that Stucky Road be connected to University Way, which would provide an alternative access to the Phase 1 property. The Traffic Impact Study addresses potential impacts to South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 1 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 the adjacent street system based upon the initial access conditions that only includes the University Way connection to Kagy Boulevard. EXISTING CONDITIONS Streets & Intersections Potentially impacted intersections located within a mile of the proposed development site are Kagy Boulevard intersections with: S. 19th Avenue, S. 11th Avenue, and S. 7th Avenue. The intersection of S. 19th Avenue and Stucky Road would have minimal potential for impacts associated with the planned access connection to Kagy Boulevard via University Way, but the S. 19th Avenue and Stucky intersection was included in the TIS analysis to serve as a baseline for future phased development traffic impact assessments. Kagy Boulevard is currently a three lane street with bike lanes in both directions. Kagy Boulevard extends from a termini point just west of S. 19th Avenue, past the MSU campus, to rural areas east of Bozeman. S. 19th Avenue extends from a point several miles south of the Kagy Boulevard intersection to an intersection with Interstate 90, on the northern end of Bozeman. South 9th Avenue has various lane combinations along its length. At its intersection with Kagy Boulevard, it provides two thru lanes in each direction with opposing left-turns lanes and additional right-turn lanes on the northbound and westbound approaches. South 11th Avenue extends from its intersection with Kagy Boulevard north, thru the MSU campus, to an intersection with Main Street. It currently operates with one lane for each direction of travel and includes bikes lanes on either side. At its intersection with Kagy Boulevard it accommodates a separate left-turn lane and a thru/right-turn lane on the southbound approach. The northbound approach to that intersection is University Way, which has the same lane configuration as the southbound approach. South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 2 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 South 7th Avenue extends from a point south of Kagy Boulevard to West Grant Street, approximately 0.35 miles north of Kagy. South 7th Avenue serves as a secondary access to surface parking lots, south of the MSU Student Union Building. In that capacity, travel demands are confined to a series of short term traffic surges throughout the day as classes change and events begin and end. The northbound approach to this intersection serves to access corporate offices with a finite demand in the am, pm, and noon hours. The southbound approach has a separate right-turn lane and a thru/left-turn lane, while the northbound approach has a single lane approach. A marked pedestrian crossing of Kagy Boulevard exists on the west side of the intersection. Existing Traffic Volumes Electronic traffic counters were used to count traffic on all approaches to South 11th Avenue and Kagy Boulevard in 2008 as a part of the traffic signal warrant study for that intersection. An hourly summary of traffic volumes from those counts can be found in the appendix. In order to update traffic counts, peak am and pm hour counts were taken in the first week of May 2011 at four key intersections and the results of those counts are illustrated in Figure 1. It should be noted that the peak am hour of traffic at the study intersections occurs between 8:00 and 9:00 am, which is one hour later than the average peak am hour at most intersections within the urban area. Since the turning movement counts were taken on different days of the week, a traffic count balancing routine was used to equalize the traffic demands to a common base. This routine determined that the Monday count at the intersection of Kagy Boulevard and S. 11th Avenue was approximately 8% lower than the counts at the adjacent intersections. Therefore, the Kagy and S. 11th Avenue volumes were adjusted upward and all other counts were rounded-up to the nearest 5 vehicles. Figure 2 illustrates the adjusted counts that represent the existing (2011) am and pm design hour volumes that were used as the baseline for capacity calculations within this study. South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 3 MARVIN$ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 anuawy 41A I � r 3E ��la I• v c��ia I IL I 40 N enwwr LP11'Q AnM A"mMun o �w It I � O N N v C �eM r r y d r ao in M 11101 d �f� A anwntl 401'4 p South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 4 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 OOLIC 40-------► r 009 o w •nuawV 4LL Ma „ c O d 40 IL 3 C d _ I 006 GRUOAV *LL•S 40 009'U Aam A+anun D1 I " nI`—'-tea 161, o III Boa-----. ,I I, II >8 $ a II II f� Leo jIII 94 e of IroIF r I. � I I r I„ .-I�i rM 1� 0. II. I"I IN h „ • C4 io II OnUDAV 416L'S II II 1L 00611FL 009'OL 1 O 00919 � --- ; South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 5 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 Also shown in Figure 2, are the Average Weekday Traffic (AWT) volumes that were calculated using the 2011 turning movement counts and percentage variations extracted from the 2008 hourly traffic volume count data. Pedestrian volumes for each intersection are also noted in Figure 2. No bicycle traffic was noted during the counting periods. Existing Capacity Capacity calculations were completed for the three intersections on Kagy Boulevard that would have potential impacts associated with development of the site without a connection between University Way and S. 19th Avenue. Table 1. Existing(2011)Peak Hour Capacity Analysis Summary intetaeolloe MOI: Overall µS se EB We Intetsectl vomoM rou L TR L R L L TR Control Delay(alveh) 15.6 202 20.1 21.6 20.7 6.7 5.9 10.1 22.4 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS B C C C C A A B C 11 th Avenue AMHour VIC Ratio 0.55 0.04 002 0.33 017 0.12 0.40 0.06 0.79 Queue Length 95% 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 11.0 Movement Group L 1 R L TR L TR L R Control Delay(s/veh) 21.7 20.1 19.6 30.0 20.3 10.6 8.4 10.1 31.0 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS C C B C C B A B C 11 th Avenue PMHour VIC Ratio 0.75 0-17 0.07 0.72 0.21 019 0.49 0.02 0.90 Queue Length 95% 1.0 1.0 5.0 2,0 3.0 8.0 1.0 12.0 Movement Group L T R L TR LT R L T R Control Delay(sNeh) 16.3 34.0 13.9 14.7 21.7 5.7 241 24.0 27.0 24.2 16.3 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS B C B B C A C C C C B 19th Avenue AMHour VIC Ratio 0.44 0.16 022 0261 0.73 0.14 004 0.01 0.42 0.05 0.40 Queue Len fh 95% 2 5 2 14 2 1 1 3 2 3 Movement Group L T R L TR LT R L T R Control Delay(sNeh) 16.0 31.3 13.7 14.3 18.4 5.7 24.4 24.2 29.8 24.1 166 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS B C B B B A C C C C B 19th Avenue PMHour VIC Ratio 0.46 0.05 020 0.23 0.64 0.14 0.06 0.05 0.59 0.02 0.44 Queue Length(95Y.J 0 5 2 10 4 2 1 5 2 3 Movement Group LTR LT R L L Control Delay(s/veh) 18.5 20.3 13-9 9.3 8.3 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS C C B A A 71h Avenue AMHour VIC Ratio 0.05 0.04 0.09 0.06 0.03 Queue Length 95% 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 Movement Group L T- LT R L Control Delay(sNeh) 22.4 35.1 15.1 9.2 9.7 Kagv Boulevard&South LOS C E C A A 7thAvenue PMHour VIC Ratio 0.23 0.25 0.20 0.06 0.01 Queue Length 95% 0-9 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 Movement Group L T TR L R South 19th Avenue& Control Delay(sNeh) 8.6 6.5 6.7 17-9 16.4 Stucky Road LOS A A A A B B AMHour Queue 0.25 0.06 0.19 021 0-34 0.05 Queue Length 95% 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 Movement Group L T 7R L R South 19th Avenue& Control Delay(sNeh) 10.6 7.2 7.1 0.1 18.1 14.9 Stucky Road Los B A A A B B PMHour WC Ratio 0.38 0.09 0.13 0 29 0.54 0.05 ueue Len th 95% 1.0 2.0 40 5.0 1.0 Table 1, above, summarizes the results of those calculations using Delay, Level- of-service (LOS), Volume to Capacity (v/c) ratios, and Vehicle Queue projections as Measures of Effectiveness (MOE). All intersections, approaches and South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 6 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 movements currently operate at LOS "C" or better except for the southbound left/thru lane on South 7th Avenue, which operates at LOS "E" with 35.1 seconds delay per vehicle during the peak PM hour, or approximately 0.1 seconds longer than the cutoff for LOS "D". This approach lane only accommodates 35 vehicles during that hour of the day. DEVELOPMENT TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS Trip Generation The proposed apartment complex that would be constructed in Phase 1 is unlike any of the ITE Trip Generation Report land uses since it would be a cross between a Dormitory and a Mid-rise Apartment. The dwelling units in this development would actually be pods or bedrooms with common kitchen and laundry facilities on each floor or pod cluster. There would be one resident per pod or dwelling unit (bedroom) and one parking space per resident. In some respects this land use would be similar to a dormitory, except that this development would offer an independent life style with the ability to prepare meals on-site. The single occupancy and shared facilities would also make it different than a Mid-rise Apartment building, where more than one person can occupy each dwelling unit. An extensive search was completed to determine trip generation rates for college dormitories and only two case studies were found that would be representative of contemporary facilities. One study was for the New York State University at Oneonta. The traffic study was prepared by Delta Engineering for a new 200 bed dormitory facility. The trip generation rates were determined by collecting data from a similar facility at the University Of Albany, Empire Commons. The data collection only focused on the peak am and pm hours and comparisons were made to ITE Land Use Code 223 Mid-rise Apartments in their report. The other study was for Merrymount College in California, which was used for planning a 255 student dormitory. RBF Consulting performed the study and South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 7 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 determined the peak am and pm trip generation rates after adjusting for extraneous trips unrelated to the dormitories. Recognizing the bi-costal nature of the two reference studies, it was determined that a comparative study at the MSU Bozeman Campus would be necessary to determine if these rates would be applicable. Thus, all of the approaches to the 780 space parking lot for the Roskie-Hedges dormitory complex were counted between the hours of 3:30 and 5:30 pm on May 4, 2011. Between the hours of 3:30 and 4:30 pm it was discovered that the majority of vehicles had student occupants and the total number of vehicles entering and existing was greater than in the following hour period. In the following period, between 4:30 and 5:30 pm, it was noted that the majority of the staff spaces were vacated and significantly fewer student trips were made than in the preceding hour. Table 2, below, presents a summary of the trip generation rates for the Roskie/Hedges parking lot, the two referenced studies, and the ITE Code 223 Mid-rise Apartment trip generation rates. It was assumed that the Roskie/Hedges 3:30 to 4:30 time period counts represent the peak hour for the facility and that those rates could be compared to the Mid-rise Apartment peak hour facility rates. Table 2. Vehicular Trip Generation Rate Research Summary Peak AM Hour Peak PM Hour 4-6pm Peak Hour Facility Average Weekday Study Rate %Enter Rate %Enter Rate %Enter Rate %Enter Bozeman Roskie/Hedges Parking 0.19 48% 0.25 46% 2.50 50% New York State U @ Oneonta 0.26 30% 0.22 45% Merrymount College California 0.21 24% 0.24 65% 2.30 50% ITE Land Use 223 Mid-Rise Apartment 0.30 31% 0.39 56% 0.44 49% 4.40 50% In comparing data from each source in Table 2, the only missing data related to the MSU counts was the peak am hour rates. However, the peak am hour rate for MSU Bozeman could be extrapolated by comparing the MSU 4:00-6:00 pm South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 8 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings.NIT 59102 peak hour rates to the average of the referenced studies, in the same time period, and by comparing the relative differences between am and pm rates. Table 2 provides trip generation rates that were developed from the Roskie/Hedges counts and modified by using comparisons to the other reference sources. It was determined that a rate of 0.20 vehicular trips per resident would be a fair estimate for both the am and pm peak hour, considering the fact that in one case the pm hour rate is less than the am rate while the reverse is true for the other dormitory. For AWT, it was assumed that the peak pm hour would experience approximately 10% of the weekday total, similar to typical traffic variations on arterial streets. The resulting rate of 2.50 for the AWT would be slightly more than the Merrymont Study, but only 57% of the ITE Code 223 rate. Since all of the dormitory reference rates are for vehicular trips at facilities on or near college campuses and there was no data presented for pedestrian and bicycle trips, it is assumed that the difference between dormitories and Mid-rise Apartments, which could be located anywhere within an urbanized area, would be the mode choice. In order to estimate the bicycle and pedestrian mode trips, it was assumed that the difference between the ITE Code 223 AWT of 4.40 and the vehicular rate of 2.50 (4.40-2.50=1.90) would be ped/bike trips as shown in Table 2. For the 22,000 square feet of future commercial development, ITE Trip Generation Report Land Use Code # 814 — "Specialty Retail' was used because it normally provides a relatively conservative estimate of trip generation when specific businesses are unknown. The impact associated with complimentary commercial land uses to residential developments is difficult to quantify because of many unknowns. However, if the commercial facilities are matched to the needs of the residents, the net effect may be a reduction in external vehicular South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 9 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 traffic and an increase in localized pedestrian trips within the boundaries of the development. Table 3, below, summarizes the total vehicular and pedestrian/bike trip generation for initial and future development in Phase 1. The staff residences were treated as Single Family Dwelling Units (ITE Land Use Code 210) and would contribute approximately 19 external vehicular trips on the average weekday. The 480 residents units would generate approximately 1,200 external vehicular trips and 912 pedestrian/ bike trips on the average weekday. Future commercial development would add approximately 975 trips, but approximately 24% of those trips, or 234 trips, would be internal capture trips associated with pedestrian/bike modes made within the confines of the development boundaries. Therefore, the commercial land use would only add 741 average weekday vehicular trips external to the site. In total, this development would generate approximately 1,960 vehicular trips and 912 ped/bike trips that would be new and added to the existing traffic on the surrounding street system. Table 3. Trip Generation South University District Peak AM Hour I Peak PM Hour 4-6pm I Ave.Weekday Rate I Total Enter Exit I Rate I Total Enter Exit I Rate Trips Initial Development -480 Residents + 2 Single Family Units (SFU) SFU Vehicles 0.75 2 1 1 1.01 2 1 1 9.57 19 Resident Vehicles 0.20 96 29 67 0.20 96 46 50 2.50 1200 Resident Ped/Bikes 0.12 58 17 41 0.19 91 44 47 1.90 912 Future Commercial - ITE Code 814 Specialty Retail Commercial Trips 6.84 150 66 84 2.71 60 29 31 44.32 975 Ped/Bike" 1.64 36 16 20 0.65 14 7 7 10.64 234 Net Vehicles 114 50 64 46 22 24 741 Total Development - External Trips Vehicles 212 80 132 144 69 75 1960 Ped/Bike 58 17 41 91 44 47 912 Totals 270 97 173 235 113 122 2872 "24%of Commercial Trips Would be Internal Capture by Pedestrian&Bicycle Mode South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 10 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 Trip Distribution The distribution of vehicular trips was based upon existing directional traffic movements at key intersections adjacent to the development site. Bike/ped distribution was based upon local area attractions and activities and travel distances. Approximately 40% of the vehicular trips would have origins and destinations to the north, on South 11 th Avenue, and 40% would have origins and destinations to the north and west, using South 19th Avenue. Only 2% of the trips would be to the north and east, using South 7th Avenue, while 13% would have origins and destinations to the east, using Kagy Boulevard east of South 7th Avenue. The remaining 5% of total vehicular trips would have origins and destinations south of the development and accessed by South 19th Avenue. Pedestrian and bicycle trips would all be directed to and from the north. It was assumed, based upon campus attraction densities and walking routes, that 60% of the ped/bike trips would use South 11th Avenue, while the remaining 40% would use South 7th Avenue. It was also assumed that all ped/bike trips would cross Kagy Boulevard at the South 11th Avenue intersection signal. Traffic Assignment Site traffic assignments were completed using the trip generation projections in Table 2 and the trip distribution percentages discussed in the preceding section. The traffic assignment projection is based on the development of Phase 1 with the University Way access to and from Kagy Boulevard as the only access to Phase 1 development land uses. The traffic assignments shown in Figure 3 illustrate the peak am and pm hour site traffic (vehicular and bike/ped) at the key intersections, along with average weekday vehicular traffic on the street system links. South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 11 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 69 �---+ enwwq 11111'4 c, JJwJ� o 6 0 0 ��f----tee IL Rio Vl I o o O ♦ V C3 C M1uWI 4LI'4 L96 L 0 a� tieIL ADIA Allomqun hI � 1II a t us 1� li,� I I I 01 V �y I II IL I, } 11 II �1-91� ��RIP O;� ale 61_D d a c, e e e s e it li "� d 4! v G O, NI O I I e I1 II � Onwnq g16L I I 1 b8L 86 6Sr COI �0" Ig11116 South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 12 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 TRAFFIC IMPACTS Existing Plus Development Traffic Volumes Figure 4 illustrates the combination of existing am and pm design hour traffic volumes and development generated traffic at each of the key study intersections for full development of South University District Phase 1. Also shown in Figure 4 are the resultant AWT volumes and the percentage increase over existing traffic that would be attributable to the Phase 1 development. In this case, Kagy Boulevard, west of South 11 th Avenue, would have the highest volume of site generated traffic and also the highest percentage increase of any of the area streets at 7%. It should be noted that, normally traffic impacts on streets that are less than 10% are not considered to be significant because daily traffic variations on any street routinely exceed 10%. South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 13 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 Mosez e �---► mom�nwwq 4"'s �� ,- s a a t 3 nl 'J Gln hl ML GIN w�7z,(A� In 0 E 1-A- P. Q _ 1?s. in I%YtL�00�'L � a RIMUMW wit*5 I � o—► ----- =� 19b9Q009't AGM 4=04W1 C ----_ -- - - iI a e hi lII ,iv on I N 1 t � I II IL I 1 III V I nn I� � II tII 11, ` II II - ♦j a IM �I c n 11 II II II C of vi '• h h 11 I I h n IA II Az - - - 'r �f1►z I Ili P b South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 14 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 Capacity Capacity calculations (see Appendix) indicate that all approaches and all movements at the key intersections would operate at LOS "C" or better during both the am and pm hour periods, if the Phase 1 South University District development existed today. Table 4, below, present a summary of the MOE's for each intersection and for each approach lane at each of the intersections. In comparing Table 4 to Table 1, it can be seen that there are slight variations in the LOS, delay and v/c ratios for individual lanes, but for overall intersection operations there would be no change in the LOS, less than a 1 second increase in delay, and no more than a 5% increase in v/c ratios. Queue lengths would vary within individual lanes, but none of the lanes would experience an increase in vehicle queues exceeding available storage or interfere with access movements adjacent to the intersections. Table 4. Existing(2011)Plus Site Traffic Peak Hour Capacity Analysis Summary IllbrsKtlon MOH Intern Overall NO 98 ED we ovement GroupL L L L R Control Delay(s/veh) 15.9 21.6 21.0 21.8 21.2 65 6.0 10.4 22.0 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS B C C C C A A B C 111h Avenue AMHour VIC Ratio 0.56 0.33 0.24 0.37 0.27 0.12 0.41 0.09 0.78 ueue Len Length 95% 2,0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 1.0 10.0 Movement Group L TR L TR L TR L TR Control Delay(Sheh) 21.9 21.2 20.2 26.7 20.9 13.2 112 118 30.4 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS C C C C C B B B C II th Avenue PMHour VIC Ratio 0.74 0.27 013 0.64 0.23 0.22 0.54 0.05 0.87 Queue Length 95% 2.0 3.0 7.0 5.0 4.0 9.0 1.0 12.0 Movement Group L T R L TR LT L T R Control Delay(slveh) 16.1 33.4 13.7 14.5 20.4 5.6 24.1 24.0 26.8 24.2 16.6 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS B C B B C A C C C C B 19th Avenue AMHour VIC Ratio 0.42 0.14 0.20 0.25 0.70 0.13 0.03 001 0.41 0,05 0.43 Queue Length 95% 4 1 2 11 3 1 1 4 1 2 Movement Group L T R L TR LT R L T R Control Delay(siveh) 16.8 5.5 17.7 18.8 11.1 17.8 23.0 22.8 28.8 22.6 12.9 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS B A B B 8 B C C C C B 19th Avenue PMHour VIC Ratio 0.56 0.01 0.26 0.30 0.61 0.26 0.08 0.05 0.61 0.02 0.43 Queue Length 95% 0 4 3 9 5 2 1 5 1 5 Movement Group LTR LT R L L Control Delay(s/veh) 19.4 21.1 14.3 9.4 8.4 Kagy Boulevard&Soulh LOS C C B A A 71h Avenue AM [our VIC Ratio 0.07 0.05 0.11 0.07 0.03 ueue Length 95% 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 Movemen(Group LTR LT R L L Control Delay(sNeh) 22.8 35.9 15.3 9.2 9.7 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS C E C A A 71h Avenue PMHour VIC Ratio 22.80 0.25 0.21 0.06 0.01 Queue Length 95% 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 Movement Group L 7 tR L South 191h Avenue& Control Delay("oh) 8.6 6.0 6.5 6.7 17.9 16-4 Stucky Road LOS A A A A B B AMHour VIC Ratio 0.26 0.06 0.19 0.21 0.34 0.05 Queue Length 95% 1,0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 Movement Group L 7 TR L R South 19th Avenue& Control Delay(s/veh) 10.6 7.2 7.1 8.1 18.2 14.9 Stucky Road LOS B A A A B B PMHour VIC Ratio 0.38 0.09 0.13 0.29 0.54 0-05 Queue Len th 95% 1.0 2.0 4.0 4,0 1.0 South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 15 MARVIN$ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 Typically, a two lane streets in an urban environment can carry between 6,000 and 9,000 vehicle per day and still operate at LOS "C". Three lane streets can carry up to 18,000 vehicles while 5 lane streets max-out at approximately 30,000. Thus, none of the surrounding streets' capacity would be substantially impacted by the development of the Phase 1 property, as proposed. Future Traffic The City of Bozeman's Capital Improvements Plan indicates that Kagy Boulevard will require reconstruction in the Year 2015. In order to determine if the additional traffic associated with this development would have operational impacts before the target year of 2015, it was necessary to project current traffic volumes to the year 2015 and add site generated traffic to year 2015 projections. From previous counts taken in 2008 and adjusting for seasonal variations, it was determined that traffic growth within the impacted area has been approximately 3% per year. Thus, traffic would increase on area streets by approximately 12.5% over the next four years. Figure 5, on the following page, illustrates the peak hour and average weekday traffic that would exists at key intersections and on street links in the year 2015, if Phase 1 of the subdivision were fully developed at that time. In comparison to Figure 4 traffic volumes, it appears that there would be between 1,500 and 1,750 more AWT on Kagy Boulevard in the year 2015. South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 16 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 0�SM eau" 41L o--- ry Yll -0MAY, dIL �N M I Ili Oseg in OOE'9 �1M LIMMIA 1 o I I I 06 aN t l , 11 N 9I�J ' rr+-----b, r K III III I I, ` ?�L�a rsi 1I II II O 1. II I I d ��IA Ii iI n N Ifl � M <•) � � to I �I f IL v: - II II OOVLL 00919 OW COI 01%4 r I� South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 17 MARVIN&ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 Future Capacity Table 5, below, presents a summary of the MOE's for each intersection and for each approach lane at each of the intersections. In comparing Table 5 to Table 4, it can be seen that there are slight variations in the LOS, delay and v/c ratios for individual lanes, but for overall intersection operations there would be no change in the LOS, less than a 3.5 second increase in delay, and no more than a 12% increase in v/c ratios. Queue lengths would vary within individual lanes, but none of the lanes would experience an increase in vehicle queues that would exceed available storage or interfere with access movements except for the westbound thru lane at Kagy and S 11th Avenue. The projected queue of 16 vehicles in that lane would exceed the available separation distance between S 11 th Avenue and a local access street west of S 11 th Avenue by approximately 3 vehicles. However, there is sufficient latitude in the signal timing to allow a queue reduction without degrading other movements entering the intersection. Table 5. Year 2015 Traffic Plus Site-Peak Hour Capacity Analysis Summary Intnraedlon MOE OYefell NO 0e as We Inte cuon Movement Group L TR L L TR L II Control Delay(slveh) 16.5 21.7 21.0 22.2 21.3 8.0 6.5 10.5 27.8 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS B C C C C A A B C 11thAvenue AMHour VIC Ratio 0.62 0.34 024 0.42 0.29 0.14 0.46 0.09 0-87 Queue Len th 95% 2.0 2.0 3.0 3-0 3.0 6.0 2.0 13.0 Movement rou L 1H L TR L TR L TR Control Delay(slveh) 25.5 23.0 218 40.3 22.7 14.9 10.7 10.8 35.1 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS C C B D C B B B D 11 th Avenue PMHour VIC Ratio 0.83 0.32 0.15 0.81 0.28 0.25 0.57 0.06 0.93 ueue Len th 95% &0 2.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 1.0 16.0 Movement Grou L T R L R LT L T R Control Delay(s/veh) 17.5 33.6 13.9 16.9 25.4 5.7 24.1 24.0 27.2 24.2 16.9 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS B C C B C A C C C C B 191h Avenue AMHour VIC Ratio 0.44 0.14 0.22 0.27 0.80 0.14 0.03 0.01 0.45 0.05 0.47 Queue Len th 95% 1 4 2 15 2 1 1 5 1 3 Movement Group L T R L TR LT R L T R Control Delay(slveh) 15.9 26.0 18.1 19.2 13.8 6.5 23.0 22.8 31.8 22-6 13.4 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS B C B B B A C C C C B 19thAvenue PMHour VIC Ratio 0.62 0-03 0.29 0.32 0.71 0.18 0.08 0.05 0.69 0.02 0.49 ueue Length 95% 1 5 3 8 4 2 1 5 1 4 Movement Grou LTR LT R L L Control Delay(s(veh) 22.5 23.7 15.6 9.8 8.5 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS C C C A A 7th Avenue AMHour VIC Ratio 0.08 0.06 0.13 0.08 0.04 Queue Len th 95% 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 Movement GroupL I T Control Delay(stveh) 29.6 53.2 17.7 9.7 10.2 Kagy Boulevard&South LOS D D F A B 71h Avenue PMHour VIC Ratio 0.34 0.24 0.38 0.07 0.01 Queue Len th 95% 1.4 0.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 Movement GroupL T L South 19th Avenue& Contra!Delay(siveh) 8.8 6.1 6.6 6.8 18.2 16.4 Stucky Road LOS A A A A B B VIC Ratio 0.29 0.07 0.21 0.24 0.39 0.05 AMHour Queue Len tb 95% 1.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Movement Group L T 1R L R South 191h Avenue& Control Delay(s/veh) 14 7.3 7.2 8.3 26.7 15.0 Stucky Road LOS B A A A C B PMHour VIC Ratio 0.48 0A0 0.14 0.31 0.79 0.06 Queue Length(9511.) , 10 2.0 1 3.0 8.0 1,0 19 South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 18 MARVIN$ASSOCIATES 1300 N.Transtech Way Billings,MT 59102 CONCLUSIONS The development of the South University District Phase 1 Lot 1 property would not substantially impact the safety and efficiency of any of the area streets or intersections. The southbound, combination thru/left-turn movement at the intersection of Kagy Boulevard and South 7th Avenue currently operates at LOS "E" during the peak pm hour period. That movement currently has a pm peak demand totaling 35 vehicles and there would be no change in that volume as result of the proposed site development. Additional site traffic that would enter the intersection would increase the delay associated with that movement by 0.8 seconds per vehicle or 28.0 seconds for the entire hour, according to the HCM calculations. It should be noted that there are 42 pedestrian that use the crosswalk on the west side of the intersection and each pedestrian crossing creates a gap that the southbound thru/left-turn movement can use to enter the intersection. Thus, the LOS for that movement is likely higher than the calculations would indicate. Because South 7th Avenue is a local street serving drivers that are intimately familiar with traffic conditions and alternative routes are available, it would not be cost-effective to reconstruct or change the operation at this intersection. Future traffic (year 2015) on area streets is projected to increase by approximately 12.5% over current traffic volumes. Even with that amount of growth, in combination with full development of the South University District Phase 1 plan, all of the existing streets and intersections would operate at or above LOS C. Conflicts between the first local access street west of S 11 th Avenue and the westbound thru lane queues would only have the potential to occur during a 15 minute period in the peak pm hour. If it is determined that this conflict is detrimental to operations, the signal timing could be adjusted to reduce westbound queue lengths, as a mitigating measure. South University District Phase 1 Development Traffic Impact Study Page 19