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HomeMy WebLinkAbout10-08-17 Public Comment - J. Morice - Black Olive II (2)1 Robin Crough From:Julien Morice <j@ironwoodd.com> Sent:Sunday, October 8, 2017 10:08 AM To:Agenda Subject:Black Olive Public Comment August Statistics Attachments:August 2017 Monthly Indicators.pdf; ATT00001.htm Categories:Public Comment August Statistics. http://www.gallatinrealtors.com/board-of-directors-committee-committee-menu/board-of-directors-documents- committee-menu/statistics/2017-market-statistics/210-august-2017-monthly-indicators/file.html Gallatin County, MontanaAugust 2017Quick Facts 234567891011121314Monthly Indicators- 6.9% + 13.7%This is a research tool provided by the Big Sky Country MLS for Gallatin County, Montana. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.Condo/Townhouse Market OverviewYear-Over-Year Change in Closed SalesAll PropertiesYear-Over-Year Change in Median Sales PriceAll PropertiesYear-Over-Year Change in Homes for SaleAll Properties- 17.5%Current as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime.New ListingsHousing Affordability IndexInventory of Homes for SaleMonths Supply of InventoryAll Properties Combined OverviewPending SalesClosed SalesDays on Market Until SaleMedian Sales PriceAverage Sales PricePercent of List Price ReceivedSingle Family Market OverviewAugust tends to mark the waning of housing activity ahead of the school year. Not all buyers and sellers have children, but there are enough parents that do not want to uproot their children during the school year to historically create a natural market cool down before any actual temperature change. Competition is expected to remain fierce for available listings. Savvy sellers and buyers know that deals can be made well into the school months, as household formations take on many shapes and sizes.Closed Sales decreased 4.9 percent for Single Family homes and 13.8 percent for Condo/Townhouse homes. Pending Sales decreased 7.1 percent for Single Family homes but remained flat for Condo/Townhouse homes. Inventory decreased 16.2 percent for Single Family homes and 26.2 percent for Condo/Townhouse homes.The Median Sales Price increased 12.3 percent to $381,500 for Single Family homes and 20.3 percent to $263,000 for Condo/Townhouse homes. Days on Market remained flat for Single Family homes but decreased 34.8 percent for Condo/Townhouse homes. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 14.3 percent for Single Family homes and 25.7 percent for Condo/Townhouse homes.The prevailing trends lasted through summer. This was expected, since there have not been any major changes in the economy that would affect housing. Factors such as wage growth, unemployment and mortgage rates have all been stable. Every locality has its unique challenges, but the whole of residential real estate is in good shape. Recent manufacturing data is showing demand for housing construction materials and supplies, which may help lift the ongoing low inventory situation in 2018. Single Family Market OverviewHistorical Sparkbars8-2016 8-2017PercentChangeYTD 2016 YTD 2017PercentChange1,456- 6.2%Key metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year. Single Family properties only.New Listings184187+ 1.6%Key MetricsPending Sales155144- 7.1% 1,2041,115- 7.4%1,553- 1.0%Days on Market Until Sale50500.0% 7670- 7.9%Closed Sales162154- 4.9% 1,0371,027+ 7.2%Average Sales Price$425,725$511,247+ 20.1% $443,061$480,588+ 8.5%Median Sales Price$339,650$381,500+ 12.3% $345,000$370,000Current as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 2+ 0.1%Housing Affordability Index9178- 14.3% 8981- 9.0%Percent of List Price Received98.7%98.1%- 0.6% 98.4%98.5%Inventory of Homes for Sale--Months Supply of Inventory4.94.2- 14.3% ------635532- 16.2% ----8-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-2017 Condo/Townhouse Market OverviewHistorical Sparkbars8-2016 8-2017PercentChangeYTD 2016 YTD 2017PercentChangeCurrent as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 3- 16.7%Housing Affordability Index141114- 19.1% 138115Inventory of Homes for Sale237175- 26.2% ----+ 26.3%98.9%+ 0.6%$323,684--Percent of List Price Received98.4%98.8%+ 0.4% 98.3%Average Sales Price$245,148$309,223+ 26.1% $256,224$260,000+ 16.1%Days on Market Until Sale6945- 34.8% 7780Median Sales Price$218,700$263,000+ 20.3% $224,000493- 7.2%+ 3.9%Closed Sales8775- 13.8% 531660+ 3.1%Pending Sales74740.0% 602606+ 0.7%640Key metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year. Condo/Townhouse properties only.New Listings7375+ 2.7%Key Metrics----Months Supply of Inventory3.52.6- 25.7% --8-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-2017 New Listings New ListingsSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeSep-2016139 +6.1% 69 -4.2%Oct-201699 -16.1% 57 -3.4%Nov-201691 0.0% 52 -32.5%Dec-201655 -21.4% 32 -17.9%Jan-2017108 +0.9% 66 -1.5%Feb-2017132 -12.6% 65 +20.4%Mar-2017195 +10.8% 91 -14.2%Apr-2017177 -24.7% 88 +14.3%May-2017217 -6.9% 105 +15.4%Jun-2017235 -1.3% 97 -10.2%Jul-2017205 -10.5% 73 +14.1%Aug-2017187 +1.6% 75 +2.7%12-Month Avg153 -6.3% 73 -1.9%Historical New Listings by MonthCurrent as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 4A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.162721847318775Single Family Condo/TownhouseAugust0501001502002503001-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse1,4816941,5536401,456660Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017+ 2.7%+ 1.4%+ 1.6%+ 13.6%-7.8%-6.2%+ 4.9%+ 3.1%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017- 16.9%-4.1%+ 0.1%- 28.0% Pending Sales Pending SalesSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeSep-2016115 -5.0% 71 +36.5%Oct-2016107 +15.1% 49 -23.4%Nov-201691 +7.1% 38 -22.4%Dec-201679 +64.6% 36 +2.9%Jan-2017106 +29.3% 70 +34.6%Feb-201796 -33.3% 56 -16.4%Mar-2017158 +0.6% 79 -17.7%Apr-2017172 -7.5% 82 0.0%May-2017152 -11.1% 77 -6.1%Jun-2017142 -10.1% 98 +22.5%Jul-2017145 -4.0% 70 +1.4%Aug-2017144 -7.1% 74 0.0%12-Month Avg126 -2.8% 67 -0.2%Historical Pending Sales by MonthCurrent as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 5A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.134731557414474Single Family Condo/TownhouseAugust0501001502001-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse1,1285361,2046021,115606Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 20170.0%+ 1.4%-7.1%+ 15.7%+ 12.3%-7.4%+ 6.7%+ 0.7%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017- 8.2%+ 11.1%+ 4.7%- 13.1% Closed Sales Closed SalesSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeSep-2016162 +21.8% 70 -12.5%Oct-2016135 +0.7% 73 +28.1%Nov-2016115 +15.0% 66 +43.5%Dec-2016118 +9.3% 56 -3.4%Jan-201795 +25.0% 39 -2.5%Feb-201765 -7.1% 48 +4.3%Mar-2017130 +22.6% 51 -5.6%Apr-201792 -29.8% 53 -23.2%May-2017140 0.0% 72 0.0%Jun-2017190 -5.0% 82 -10.9%Jul-2017161 +5.9% 73 +2.8%Aug-2017154 -4.9% 75 -13.8%12-Month Avg130 +3.0% 63 -1.8%Historical Closed Sales by MonthCurrent as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 6A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.146701628715475Single Family Condo/TownhouseAugust0501001502002501-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse9854821,0375311,027493Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017- 13.8%+ 24.3%-4.9%+ 11.0%+ 10.2%-1.0%+ 5.3%-7.2%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017+ 5.0%+ 8.4%+ 9.5%+ 7.7% Days on Market Until Sale Days on MarketSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeSep-201673 +5.8% 108 +68.8%Oct-201665 -27.0% 74 -12.9%Nov-201671 -23.7% 97 +15.5%Dec-201675 -11.8% 84 +18.3%Jan-201785 -20.6% 197 +159.2%Feb-2017102 -3.8% 138 +19.0%Mar-201789 -5.3% 120 +12.1%Apr-201775 +1.4% 58 -35.6%May-201756 -21.1% 51 -36.3%Jun-201765 -12.2% 61 0.0%Jul-201770 +1.4% 53 +26.2%Aug-201750 0.0% 45 -34.8%12-Month Avg* 73 -10.8% 84 +14.9%Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month* Days on Market for all properties from September 2016 through August 2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.Current as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 7Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.477250695045Single Family Condo/TownhouseAugust0501001502002503001-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse866476777080Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017- 34.8%-4.2%0.0%+ 6.4%+ 20.3%-7.9%- 11.6%+ 3.9%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017- 30.9%+ 2.4%- 17.9%- 12.2% Median Sales Price Median Sales PriceSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeSep-2016$350,000 +9.7% $255,750 +14.2%Oct-2016$345,000 -2.8% $289,500 +28.5%Nov-2016$362,555 +9.2% $237,500 +15.0%Dec-2016$335,000 +0.9% $291,250 +44.2%Jan-2017$350,786 -0.5% $301,000 +32.6%Feb-2017$361,000 +14.2% $306,250 +41.1%Mar-2017$351,101 +3.3% $254,000 +25.7%Apr-2017$367,650 +16.2% $274,500 +24.3%May-2017$373,000 +1.6% $251,000 +9.1%Jun-2017$368,530 +1.6% $240,000 +0.5%Jul-2017$375,000 +6.0% $255,000 +14.5%Aug-2017$381,500 +12.3% $263,000 +20.3%12-Month Avg* $360,300 +5.7% $261,000 +22.2%Historical Median Sales Price by Month* Median Sales Price for all properties from September 2016 through August 2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.Current as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 8Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.$335,750$204,950$339,650$218,700$381,500$263,000Single Family Condo/TownhouseAugust$100,000$150,000$200,000$250,000$300,000$350,000$400,0001-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse$330,500$202,883$345,000$224,000$370,000$260,000Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017+ 20.3%+ 6.7%+ 12.3%+ 1.2%+ 10.4%+ 7.2%+ 4.4%+ 16.1%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017+ 10.1%+ 12.0%+ 1.5%+ 2.5% Average Sales Price Avg. Sales PriceSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeSep-2016$513,956 +36.2% $359,306 +26.7%Oct-2016$444,012 -10.3% $319,659 +16.2%Nov-2016$475,857 -23.6% $303,862 +25.6%Dec-2016$415,664 -13.6% $366,160 +58.7%Jan-2017$485,141 +1.1% $366,366 +44.6%Feb-2017$494,543 +11.9% $336,712 +38.9%Mar-2017$435,327 -4.9% $370,164 +39.5%Apr-2017$519,060 +32.9% $340,078 +33.4%May-2017$433,726 +3.1% $276,795 +6.8%Jun-2017$488,856 +3.4% $317,567 +16.3%Jul-2017$488,685 +6.1% $315,915 +26.3%Aug-2017$511,247 +20.1% $309,223 +26.1%12-Month Avg* $475,615 +3.3% $327,998 +29.5%Historical Average Sales Price by Month* Avg. Sales Price for all properties from September 2016 through August 2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.Current as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 9Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.$392,810$250,919$425,725$245,148$511,247$309,223Single Family Condo/TownhouseAugust$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000$600,000$700,0001-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse$428,546$258,928$443,061$256,224$480,588$323,684Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017+ 26.1%-2.3%+ 20.1%+ 8.4%-1.0%+ 8.5%+ 3.4%+ 26.3%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017-1.5%+ 8.1%-3.7%-2.5% Percent of List Price Received Pct. of List Price ReceivedSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeSep-201698.3% +0.5% 97.9% -0.4%Oct-201698.4% +0.6% 98.2% -0.1%Nov-201698.5% +1.4% 98.7% +0.6%Dec-201697.8% +0.1% 98.6% +0.9%Jan-201798.3% +0.4% 98.5% +0.4%Feb-201797.9% -0.4% 98.6% +1.1%Mar-201798.4% -0.2% 98.2% +0.6%Apr-201798.6% -0.1% 99.3% +1.3%May-201798.7% -0.2% 98.5% +0.3%Jun-201798.4% +0.3% 99.5% +0.8%Jul-201799.4% +1.2% 99.3% -0.1%Aug-201798.1% -0.6% 98.8% +0.4%12-Month Avg* 98.5% +0.3% 98.7% +0.5%Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month* Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from September 2016 through August 2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.Current as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 10Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.98.6%98.5%98.7%98.4%98.1%98.8%Single Family Condo/TownhouseAugust90.0%92.0%94.0%96.0%98.0%100.0%102.0%1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse98.1%98.0%98.4%98.3%98.5%98.9%Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017+ 0.4%-0.1%-0.6%+ 0.1%+ 0.3%+ 0.1%+ 0.3%+ 0.6%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017+ 1.6%+ 0.4%+ 0.3%+ 0.6% Housing Affordability Index Affordability IndexSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeSep-201688 -7.4% 120 -11.8%Oct-201690 +5.9% 108 -20.0%Nov-201682 -9.9% 125 -14.4%Dec-201685 -6.6% 98 -34.2%Jan-201781 -3.6% 94 -27.7%Feb-201781 -15.6% 95 -32.1%Mar-201783 -6.7% 114 -24.0%Apr-201781 -15.6% 108 -21.2%May-201780 -3.6% 119 -9.8%Jun-201781 -4.7% 124 -3.9%Jul-201780 -8.0% 117 -15.2%Aug-201778 -14.3% 114 -19.1%12-Month Avg83 -7.7% 111 -19.7%Historical Housing Affordability Index by MonthCurrent as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 11This index measures housing affordability for the region. For example, an index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.891479114178114Single Family Condo/TownhouseAugust501001502002503001-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse911488913881115Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017- 19.1%-4.1%- 14.3%+ 2.2%-6.8%-9.0%-2.2%- 16.7%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017-3.3%-4.2%+ 5.0%+ 4.3% Inventory of Homes for Sale Homes for SaleSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeSep-2016614 -2.5% 222 -29.5%Oct-2016553 -8.4% 213 -25.5%Nov-2016498 -10.9% 212 -29.8%Dec-2016421 -21.7% 193 -33.9%Jan-2017398 -23.5% 176 -39.3%Feb-2017419 -17.4% 177 -34.0%Mar-2017433 -15.1% 185 -31.7%Apr-2017412 -21.7% 185 -27.7%May-2017444 -20.4% 206 -17.9%Jun-2017503 -17.7% 192 -28.1%Jul-2017517 -20.8% 189 -25.6%Aug-2017532 -16.2% 175 -26.2%12-Month Avg479 -16.2% 194 -29.3%Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by MonthCurrent as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 12The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.673313635237532175Single FamilyCondo/TownhouseAugust02004006008001,0001,2001,4001-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse20152016 2017- 26.2%- 24.3%- 16.2%-5.6%201520162017- 20.6%+ 6.1% Months Supply of Inventory Months SupplySingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeSep-20164.8 -4.0% 3.2 -38.5%Oct-20164.3 -12.2% 3.2 -30.4%Nov-20163.8 -15.6% 3.2 -34.7%Dec-20163.2 -27.3% 2.9 -39.6%Jan-20172.9 -32.6% 2.6 -43.5%Feb-20173.2 -23.8% 2.6 -38.1%Mar-20173.3 -19.5% 2.8 -33.3%Apr-20173.2 -23.8% 2.8 -28.2%May-20173.5 -20.5% 3.2 -15.8%Jun-20174.0 -14.9% 2.9 -27.5%Jul-20174.1 -19.6% 2.8 -26.3%Aug-20174.2 -14.3% 2.6 -25.7%12-Month Avg* 3.7 -18.8% 2.9 -32.2%Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month* Months Supply for all properties from September 2016 through August 2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.Current as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 13The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.5.45.14.93.54.22.6Single FamilyCondo/TownhouseAugust0.05.010.015.020.025.01-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse20152016 2017- 25.7%- 31.4%- 14.3%-9.3%201520162017- 28.9%0.0% All Properties Combined OverviewHistorical Sparkbars8-2016 8-2017PercentChangeYTD 2016 YTD 2017PercentChangeCurrent as of September 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 14--Months Supply of Inventory4.53.7- 17.8% ----- 11.7%----91Inventory of Homes for Sale924762- 17.5% --Housing Affordability Index10691- 14.2% 103+ 13.8%Percent of List Price Received98.5%98.1%- 0.4% 98.3%98.6%+ 0.3%Average Sales Price$354,396$432,319+ 22.0% $376,606$428,397$329,390+ 9.8%Days on Market Until Sale5548- 12.7% 7674Median Sales Price$290,000$329,825+ 13.7% $300,0001,596- 2.7%- 2.6%Closed Sales261243- 6.9% 1,6412,258- 2.6%Pending Sales244238- 2.5% 1,8921,829- 3.3%2,318Key metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year.New Listings280286+ 2.1%Key Metrics8-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-20178-2015 12-2015 4-2016 8-2016 12-2016 4-2017 8-20178-20152-20168-20162-20178-2017