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HomeMy WebLinkAbout10-08-17 Public Comment - J. Morice - Black Olive II (1)1 Robin Crough From:Julien Morice <j@ironwoodd.com> Sent:Sunday, October 8, 2017 10:06 AM To:Agenda Subject:Black Olive Public Comment Q2 Statistics Attachments:Q2 2017 Quarterly Indicator.pdf; ATT00001.htm Categories:Public Comment Q2 Market Overview Gallatin County. http://www.gallatinrealtors.com/board-of-directors-committee-committee-menu/board-of-directors-documents- committee-menu/statistics/2017-market-statistics/165-q2-2017-quarterly-indicator/file.html Gallatin County, MontanaQ2-2017Quick Facts 234567891011121314Current as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime.New ListingsHousing Affordability IndexInventory of Homes for SaleMonths Supply of InventoryAll Properties Combined OverviewPending SalesClosed SalesDays on Market Until SaleMedian Sales PriceAverage Sales PricePercent of List Price ReceivedSingle Family Market OverviewThere has been a general slowdown in sales across the country, and this cannot be blamed on negative economic news. Unemployment remains low and wage growth, though nothing to overly celebrate, has held steady or increased for several years in a row. There is strong demand for home buying, emphasized by higher prices and multiple offers on homes for sale in many submarkets. As has been the case for month after month – and now year after year – low inventory is the primary culprit for any sales malaise rather than lack of offers.Closed Sales decreased 12.5 percent for Single Family homes and 13.3 percent for Condo/Townhouse homes. Pending Sales decreased 8.3 percent for Single Family homes but increased 7.4 percent for Condo/Townhouse homes. Inventory decreased 20.0 percent for Single Family homes and 33.3 percent for Condo/Townhouse homes.The Median Sales Price increased 5.8 percent to $370,250 for Single Family homes and 8.2 percent to $248,950 for Condo/Townhouse homes. Days on Market decreased 12.3 percent for Single Family homes and 26.3 percent for Condo/Townhouse homes. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 19.1 percent for Single Family homes and 32.5 percent for Condo/Townhouse homes.With job creation increasing and mortgage rates remaining low, the pull toward homeownership is expected to continue. Yet housing starts have been drifting lower, and some are beginning to worry that a more serious housing shortage could be in the cards if new construction and building permit applications continue to come in lower in year-over-year comparisons while demand remains high. Homebuilder confidence suggests otherwise, so predictions of a gloomy future should be curbed for the time being.Quarterly Indicators- 12.1% + 5.9%This is a research tool provided by the Big Sky Country MLS for Gallatin County, Montana. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.Condo/Townhouse Market OverviewYear-Over-Year Change in Closed SalesAll PropertiesYear-Over-Year Change in Median Sales PriceAll PropertiesYear-Over-Year Change in Homes for SaleAll Properties- 23.1% Single Family Market OverviewHistorical SparkbarsQ2-2016 Q2-2017PercentChangeYTD 2016 YTD 2017PercentChange--Months Supply of Inventory4.73.8- 19.1% ------605484- 20.0% ----Current as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 2+ 0.1%Housing Affordability Index9183- 8.8% 9284- 8.7%Percent of List Price Received98.5%98.6%+ 0.1% 98.4%98.5%Inventory of Homes for Sale701+ 5.8%Average Sales Price$434,356$476,839+ 9.8% $443,302$472,345+ 6.6%Median Sales Price$350,000$370,250+ 5.8% $345,000$365,000826- 8.1%1,140- 3.0%Days on Market Until Sale7364- 12.3% 8375- 9.6%Closed Sales471412- 12.5% 723Pending Sales515472- 8.3% 8991,053- 7.6%Key metrics by report quarter and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year. Single Family properties only.New Listings706623- 11.8%Key MetricsQ2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017 Condo/Townhouse Market OverviewHistorical SparkbarsQ2-2016 Q2-2017PercentChangeYTD 2016 YTD 2017PercentChange----Months Supply of Inventory4.02.7- 32.5% --Key metrics by report quarter and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year. Condo/Townhouse properties only.New Listings276284+ 2.9%Key Metrics505+ 0.4%Pending Sales244262+ 7.4% 459467+ 1.7%503Closed Sales233202- 13.3% 373340- 8.8%+ 10.6%$260,000+ 15.6%Days on Market Until Sale7656- 26.3% 8594Median Sales Price$230,000$248,950+ 8.2% $225,000Average Sales Price$263,339$307,128+ 16.6% $259,975--Percent of List Price Received98.3%99.1%+ 0.8% 98.1%+ 26.0%98.8%+ 0.7%$327,555Current as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 3- 16.3%Housing Affordability Index138124- 10.1% 141118Inventory of Homes for Sale267178- 33.3% ----Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017 New Listings New ListingsSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeQ3-2014541 +27.3% 280 +40.7%Q4-2014267 -13.6% 158 +29.5%Q1-2015437 +22.4% 246 +23.0%Q2-2015647 +9.7% 286 +40.2%Q3-2015528 +25.4% 234 +27.2%Q4-2015278 +3.7% 175 +47.1%Q1-2016434 +1.9% 227 +24.0%Q2-2016706 +6.2% 276 +14.5%Q3-2016552 +10.4% 207 +7.3%Q4-2016245 -4.7% 140 -4.1%Q1-2017430 +6.4% 221 +15.7%Q2-2017623 -14.1% 284 -5.0%12-Month Avg474 +2.3% 228 +8.2%Historical New Listings by MonthCurrent as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 4A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.647286706276623284Single Family Condo/TownhouseQ2-20170200400600800Q1-2004 Q1-2007 Q1-2010 Q1-2013 Q1-2016Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse1,0845321,1405031,053505Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017+ 2.9%-3.5%- 11.8%+ 9.1%-5.5%-7.6%+ 5.2%+ 0.4%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017- 10.8%-4.0%+ 8.6%-4.3% Pending Sales Pending SalesSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeQ3-2014397 +48.1% 213 +49.0%Q4-2014254 +42.7% 141 +46.9%Q1-2015381 +67.8% 174 +19.2%Q2-2015443 +31.1% 214 +63.4%Q3-2015425 +27.2% 200 +26.6%Q4-2015226 +8.1% 148 +38.3%Q1-2016384 +33.8% 215 +72.0%Q2-2016515 +23.8% 244 +25.1%Q3-2016421 +13.5% 214 +4.4%Q4-2016277 +21.5% 123 +19.4%Q1-2017354 +18.0% 205 +23.5%Q2-2017472 +8.0% 262 +35.1%12-Month Avg379 +12.1% 196 +17.9%Historical Pending Sales by MonthCurrent as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 5A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.443214515244472262Single Family Condo/TownhouseQ2-20170100200300400500600Q1-2004 Q1-2007 Q1-2010 Q1-2013 Q1-2016Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse824388899459826467Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017+ 7.4%+ 14.0%-8.3%+ 16.3%+ 18.3%-8.1%+ 9.1%+ 1.7%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017+ 1.4%+ 11.8%+ 7.8%+ 10.3% Closed Sales Closed SalesSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeQ3-2014442 +72.7% 209 +49.3%Q4-2014333 +44.2% 179 +51.7%Q1-2015252 +52.7% 119 +14.4%Q2-2015427 +47.8% 213 +55.5%Q3-2015439 +26.5% 230 +60.8%Q4-2015342 +21.3% 161 +5.9%Q1-2016252 +26.6% 140 +86.7%Q2-2016471 +35.7% 233 +37.9%Q3-2016476 +13.9% 228 +9.6%Q4-2016368 +17.2% 195 +22.6%Q1-2017289 +33.2% 138 +14.0%Q2-2017412 +5.9% 202 +6.3%12-Month Avg375 +13.5% 187 +16.0%Historical Closed Sales by MonthCurrent as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 6A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.427213471233412202Single Family Condo/TownhouseQ2-20170100200300400500Q1-2004 Q1-2007 Q1-2010 Q1-2013 Q1-2016Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse679332723373701340Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017- 13.3%+ 9.4%- 12.5%+ 10.3%+ 12.3%-3.0%+ 6.5%-8.8%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017+ 9.8%+ 12.0%+ 6.8%+ 12.1% Days on Market Until Sale Days on MarketSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeQ3-201482 -16.3% 69 -44.4%Q4-201483 -25.9% 75 -57.6%Q1-2015106 -3.6% 66 -52.9%Q2-201593 -7.9% 67 -29.5%Q3-201563 -33.0% 60 -38.8%Q4-201589 -12.7% 80 -24.5%Q1-2016102 -5.6% 101 +11.0%Q2-201673 -18.0% 76 -30.9%Q3-201664 -7.2% 73 -16.1%Q4-201670 -30.0% 85 -35.6%Q1-201791 -7.1% 148 +43.7%Q2-201764 -25.6% 56 -17.6%12-Month Avg* 70 -11.8% 85 -11.0%Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month* Days on Market for all properties from Q3-2014 through Q2-2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.Current as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 7Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.936773766456Single Family Condo/TownhouseQ2-201750100150200250Q1-2004 Q1-2007 Q1-2010 Q1-2013 Q1-2016Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse986783857594Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017- 26.3%+ 13.4%- 12.3%- 21.5%+ 26.9%-9.6%- 15.3%+ 10.6%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017+ 8.1%+ 8.9%- 18.3%-1.5% Median Sales Price Median Sales PriceSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeQ3-2014$301,250 +24.4% $195,000 +38.8%Q4-2014$298,000 +24.7% $203,000 +47.4%Q1-2015$319,750 +33.5% $195,000 +42.3%Q2-2015$335,000 +28.8% $199,900 +42.9%Q3-2015$330,445 +30.9% $213,750 +32.4%Q4-2015$335,250 +31.1% $210,000 +34.2%Q1-2016$329,500 +19.3% $219,500 +37.3%Q2-2016$350,000 +25.9% $230,000 +39.4%Q3-2016$349,900 +26.5% $227,000 +29.5%Q4-2016$345,000 +20.8% $270,695 +38.8%Q1-2017$351,200 +21.3% $277,140 +38.6%Q2-2017$370,250 +20.6% $248,950 +24.5%12-Month Avg* $354,000 +15.6% $250,000 +21.9%Historical Median Sales Price by Month* Median Sales Price for all properties from Q3-2014 through Q2-2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.Current as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 8Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.$335,000$199,900$350,000$230,000$370,250$248,950Single Family Condo/TownhouseQ2-2017$100,000$150,000$200,000$250,000$300,000$350,000$400,000Q1-2004 Q1-2007 Q1-2010 Q1-2013 Q1-2016Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse$330,000$198,075$345,000$225,000$365,000$260,000Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017+ 8.2%+ 15.1%+ 5.8%+ 4.5%+ 13.6%+ 5.8%+ 4.5%+ 15.6%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017+ 9.1%+ 11.3%-1.0%-0.0% Average Sales Price Avg. Sales PriceSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeQ3-2014$416,543 +19.0% $255,536 +30.9%Q4-2014$535,244 +66.8% $239,815 +26.2%Q1-2015$415,495 +40.5% $278,354 +47.7%Q2-2015$445,720 +36.4% $258,569 +45.6%Q3-2015$403,859 +21.0% $257,768 +28.3%Q4-2015$528,148 +43.9% $249,662 +31.4%Q1-2016$460,023 +29.4% $254,376 +3.8%Q2-2016$434,356 +28.2% $263,339 +17.2%Q3-2016$466,824 +36.6% $281,736 +31.4%Q4-2016$444,874 +10.4% $327,666 +20.5%Q1-2017$465,938 +17.6% $357,455 +31.0%Q2-2017$476,839 +17.2% $307,128 +6.5%12-Month Avg* $464,101 +15.5% $313,892 +13.3%Historical Average Sales Price by Month* Avg. Sales Price for all properties from Q3-2014 through Q2-2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.Current as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 9Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.$445,720$258,569$434,356$263,339$476,839$307,128Single Family Condo/TownhouseQ2-2017$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000$600,000Q1-2004 Q1-2007 Q1-2010 Q1-2013 Q1-2016Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse$434,503$265,661$443,302$259,975$472,345$327,555Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017+ 16.6%+ 1.8%+ 9.8%-2.5%-2.1%+ 6.6%+ 2.0%+ 26.0%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 2017+ 9.6%+ 7.8%-5.9%- 10.3% Percent of List Price Received Pct. of List Price ReceivedSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeQ3-201497.5% +1.2% 98.1% +4.8%Q4-201497.1% +1.8% 97.5% +4.2%Q1-201597.7% +1.9% 97.9% +2.7%Q2-201598.0% +1.2% 97.7% +1.8%Q3-201598.3% +1.8% 98.5% +1.9%Q4-201597.6% +0.8% 98.0% +1.6%Q1-201698.3% +2.4% 97.7% -0.1%Q2-201698.5% +1.1% 98.3% +0.9%Q3-201698.4% +0.5% 98.6% +1.4%Q4-201698.3% +0.8% 98.5% +0.9%Q1-201798.3% +0.9% 98.4% +1.1%Q2-201798.6% +0.6% 99.1% +1.3%12-Month Avg* 98.4% +0.7% 98.7% +0.8%Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month* Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from Q3-2014 through Q2-2017. This is not the average of the individual figures above.Current as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 10Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.98.0%97.7%98.5%98.3%98.6%99.1%Single Family Condo/TownhouseQ2-201792.0%94.0%96.0%98.0%100.0%Q1-2004 Q1-2007 Q1-2010 Q1-2013 Q1-2016Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse97.9%97.8%98.4%98.1%98.5%98.8%Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017+ 0.8%+ 0.6%+ 0.1%+ 0.5%+ 0.3%+ 0.1%+ 0.5%+ 0.7%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 20170.0%+ 0.1%+ 0.2%-0.1% Housing Affordability Index Affordability IndexSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeQ3-201494 -16.1% 145 -24.9%Q4-201496 -16.5% 141 -29.5%Q1-201595 -18.8% 156 -23.9%Q2-201591 -18.0% 152 -25.9%Q3-201590 -23.1% 140 -23.1%Q4-201590 -22.4% 143 -24.7%Q1-201695 -12.0% 142 -23.7%Q2-201691 -12.5% 138 -20.7%Q3-201692 -8.0% 141 -10.2%Q4-201690 -9.1% 114 -21.4%Q1-201785 -10.5% 108 -21.7%Q2-201783 -8.8% 124 -11.4%12-Month Avg87 -9.5% 123 -13.7%Historical Housing Affordability Index by MonthCurrent as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 11This index measures housing affordability for the region. For example, an index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.911529113883124Single Family Condo/TownhouseQ2-20175075100125150175200225Q1-2004 Q1-2007 Q1-2010 Q1-2013 Q1-2016Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse921549214184118Single Family Condo/TownhouseYear to Date20152016 2017- 10.1%-9.2%-8.8%0.0%-8.4%-8.7%0.0%- 16.3%201520162017 20152016 201720152016 20170.0%-3.2%+ 10.0%+ 8.6% Inventory of Homes for Sale Homes for SaleSingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeQ3-2014793 -12.6% 293 -32.6%Q4-2014594 -24.9% 256 -31.2%Q1-2015546 -29.2% 291 -16.6%Q2-2015648 -27.4% 326 -9.4%Q3-2015626 -22.1% 315 -0.6%Q4-2015533 -20.9% 292 +7.4%Q1-2016504 -25.3% 271 -8.8%Q2-2016605 -24.6% 267 -7.9%Q3-2016608 -21.3% 223 -1.3%Q4-2016410 -32.7% 193 -13.1%Q1-2017423 -29.7% 183 -10.3%Q2-2017484 -37.6% 178 -35.0%12-Month Avg0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by MonthThe number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.Current as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 12648326605267484178Single FamilyCondo/TownhouseQ2-201702004006008001,0001,2001,400Q1-2004 Q1-2007 Q1-2010 Q1-2013 Q1-2016Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse20152016 2017- 33.3%- 18.1%- 20.0%-6.6%201520162017- 16.5%+ 19.0% Months Supply of Inventory Months SupplySingleFamilyYear-Over-YearChangeCondo /TownhouseYear-Over-YearChangeQ3-20147.0 -43.1% 5.2 -52.7%Q4-20145.1 -51.4% 4.3 -53.8%Q1-20154.5 -54.5% 4.8 -41.5%Q2-20155.3 -50.0% 5.3 -36.9%Q3-20155.0 -44.4% 5.2 -27.8%Q4-20154.3 -41.1% 4.8 -20.0%Q1-20164.1 -40.6% 4.2 -38.2%Q2-20164.7 -39.0% 4.0 -32.2%Q3-20164.7 -34.7% 3.3 -23.3%Q4-20163.1 -44.6% 2.9 -31.0%Q1-20173.2 -41.8% 2.8 -24.3%Q2-20173.8 -45.7% 2.7 -44.9%12-Month Avg3.8 -44.3% 3.0 -35.5%Historical Months Supply of Inventory by MonthCurrent as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 13The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.5.35.34.74.03.82.7Single FamilyCondo/TownhouseQ2-20170.05.010.015.020.025.0Q1-2004 Q1-2007 Q1-2010 Q1-2013 Q1-2016Single FamilyCondo/Townhouse20152016 2017- 32.5%- 24.5%- 19.1%- 11.3%201520162017- 24.3%+ 8.2% All Properties Combined OverviewHistorical SparkbarsQ2-2016 Q2-2017PercentChangeYTD 2016 YTD 2017PercentChangeKey metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year.New Listings1,030961- 6.7%Key Metrics1,653- 4.7%Pending Sales791771- 2.5% 1,4161,362- 3.8%1,734Closed Sales737648- 12.1% 1,1511,092- 5.1%0.0%$325,000+ 8.3%Days on Market Until Sale7463- 14.9% 8383Median Sales Price$307,000$325,000+ 5.9% $300,000+ 12.4%Percent of List Price Received98.3%98.6%+ 0.3% 98.2%98.5%+ 0.3%Average Sales Price$374,503$419,336+ 12.0% $379,950$427,201Housing Affordability Index10395- 7.8% 106Inventory of Homes for Sale929714- 23.1% --- 10.4%----95Current as of July 10, 2017. All data from Big Sky Country Multiple Listing Service®. Report © 2017 ShowingTime. | 14--Months Supply of Inventory4.53.5- 22.2% ----Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017Q2-2011 Q2-2012 Q2-2013 Q2-2014 Q2-2015 Q2-2016 Q2-2017Q2-2011Q4-2012Q2-2014Q4-2015Q2-2017