HomeMy WebLinkAbouteconomic and demographic proposal, bozeman, mt, xicon economics
Proposal
Professional Services to conduct
Economic & Demographic Analysis Services
in support of a Comprehensive Plan Update
Land Use Projection
DUE: January 31, 2017
Demographic Analysis
Xicon. We grow economies.
&
Submitted to:
Robin Crough, MPA
City of Bozeman
121 North Rouse Avenue, Suite 202
Bozeman, Montana 59771
United States of America
Submitted by:
Herbert M Barber, Jr, PhD, PhD
Xicon Economics
Post Office Box 61478
Savannah, Georgia 31420
United States of America
+1 912 536 4182
Economics
Research
Statistics
Economic
2
Date: January 10, 2017
To: Robin Crough, MPA, City Clerk, Bozeman, Montana
Re: RFP, Professional Services to Conduct Economic & Demographic Analysis Services in support of a
Comprehensive Plan Update, Land Use Projection
On behalf of Xicon Economics, please allow this document to serve as our proposal in response to the noted bid
solicitation. In developing our proposal, we have made every attempt to comply with mandates established in the
solicitation. Any omissions are unintentional oversights.
To this end, we are experts in the areas of Economics, Research, and Statistics. Our senior experts average over 30
years of experience, and all have earned research doctorates in engineering, economics, and operations research. As
such, the work we produce is scientifically rigorous and econometrically objective, and most often, without equal. In
brief, We grow economies.
We have conducted over 2,500 studies and provided over 3,500 advisories for clients in both the private and public
sectors. We have approximately 20 senior level PhDs, hold 7 patents, speak 10 languages, written 16 books, published
hundreds of scientific papers in referred journals, and worked in numerous countries around the world. In so doing,
we have fully completed every contract and never exceeded a budget or schedule.
We appreciate your considering our proposal. I can be contacted at +1 912 536 4182.
Kind Regards,
Herbert M Barber, Jr, PhD, PhD
Principal Economist
Acknowledgements
1. This proposal is made without collusion with any other person or entity submitting a proposal pursuit to
this RFP.
2. Xicon Econmics, nor its sub-consultants, discriminate based on race, color, religion, creed, sex, age, marital
status, national origin, or because of actual or perceived sexual orientation, gender identity, or disability.
Xicon Economics and its sub-consultants also recognizes that any eventual contract will contain a provision
prohibiting discrimination as described above and that this prohibition on discrimination shall apply to the
hiring and treatment of our employees and sub-consultants.
Xicon Economics
Post Office Box 61478
Savannah, Georgia 31420
United States of America
www.xiconeconomics.com
+1 912 536 4182
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Basic Definitions, in Lay Terms
1. Descriptive Statistics – analyses that attempt to describe data through commonly accepted methods,
such as those associated with measures of central tendency and the like. As such, descriptive statistics
do not rely of mathematical probability theory as a means of explaining data or events.
2. Inferential Statistics – analyses that use inferences, or generalizability, such that future events may be
explained or forecasted. Inferential statistics rely on mathematical probability theory.
3. Construct – a non-operationalized variable that serves as a concept or idea that cannot be measured in
and of itself.
4. Variable – a construct that has been operationalized into a meaningful phenomenon that can be
measured quantitatively or qualitatively as a means of rendering decisions.
5. Correlation – a measure expressing the relationship between variables. Correlation ranges between -1.0
and +1.0, with zero demonstrating that there exists no relationship between variables.
6. Standard Deviation – a measure noting distances from the mean. Under a normal curve, +/-1SD
encompasses approximately 68.2% of the population under study, +/-2SD encompasses 95.4%, and +/-
3SD encompasses 99.7%.
7. Standardization – the process of norming data or scores; researchers often use z-scores to standardize
data.
8. Significance – an expression attempting to describe whether a relationship or phenomenon is due to
chance, most often expressed using alpha levels, such as .1, .05, or .01. An alpha level of .01 means that
there exists a 1% probability that an effect, or difference, is due to chance.
9. Statistical Effect – a measure of the differences between two or more variables. Effect can be direct or
indirect.
10. Effect Size – a measure of the strength of a relationship or phenomenon; most often expressed as a
coefficient thorough Hedges’s g, Cohen’s d, and many other techniques.
11. Practical Effect – a statistic to measure the statistical effect of a relationship of phenomenon against
practical application or importance of said statistical effect.
12. Coefficient of Determination – a means of describing mathematically how well data fit a specific curve.
13. Explained Variance – a statistic describing the variance in a dependent variable explained by an
independent variable. Explained variance can run parallel with coefficient of determination.
14. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) – a statistic used to analyze differences in means between variables,
compared against levels of significance, e.g., p-values.
15. Linear Regression – a method for describing and forecasting data associated with variables through
mathematical models. There are several types of regression, such as simple regression, quadratic
regression, multiple regression, and logistic regression.
16. Time Series – data sets having seen or unseen tendencies of seasonal, trend, and irregular
characteristics.
17. Time Series Forecasting – a statistical method for projecting series variables having seasonal, trend, and
irregular characteristics by coupling smoothing techniques, such as exponential smoothing or moving
average smoothing, with various forms of regression modeling (No universally accepted test for
significance has been established in the scientific literature).
18. Causality – an occurrence between two of more variables that allows a variable to be explained by
another variable. In lay terms, causality is considered to exist during cause-effect occurrences.
19. Structural Equation Modeling – a multivariate analysis technique for testing and analyzing causal
relationships.
20. Granger Causality – a method of determining whether a time series model can forecast another time
series model.
21. Econometrics – the branch of economics that applies advanced mathematics and statistics to
phenomenon in economics such that empirical analyses can be rendered.
22. Internal Consistency – a measure of scale reliability.
23. Cronbach’s Alpha – a measure of internal consistency within an instrument.
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24. Deterministic Modelling – mathematical techniques containing no elements of randomness.
25. Probabilistic Modelling – mathematical techniques containing elements of randomness.
26. Generalizability – the ability of variables within a sample to mathematically describe, or infer,
phenomenon or relationships across a population.
27. Validity – the extent to which a construct, or set of constructs, is operationalized.
28. Reliability – the mathematical extent to which a measure captures its intended data.
29. Real Gross Domestic Product – macroeconomic measure of economic output, adjusted for inflation.
30. Nominal Gross Domestic Product – macroeconomic measure of economic output, without adjustments
for inflation.
31. F-statistic – a test for a null hypothesis, often used for determining whether models have been fitted to
data correctly.
32. F-value – interpreted differently, but generally represents the ratio of between-groups variance and
within-groups variance.
33. Latent Variables – those operationalized constructs existing but hidden, or not readily observed, in data
that often are measured through observed variables.
5
Table of Contents
Section Page
Project Summary
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
6
Company Description & Capabilities
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
7
Project Team
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
10
References
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
12
Outline of the Study
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
14
Fee Structure
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
32
Appendix
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
33
6
Project Summary
Xicon Economics proposes to provide economic and demographic analyses for the City of Bozeman in an effort of
preparing city officials and community leaders to render appropriate data-driven decisions. The study will be
conducted by Dr. Herbert Barber, principal economist with Xicon Economics, with no subcontracting. Dr. Barber is an
engineer and economist and has conducted hundreds of studies such as the study addressed herein, as well as
countless studies substantially more complex. With all studies, however, Dr. Barber addresses the constructs
associated with each study with rigor and objectivity, coupled with advanced statistical and econometric analysis in
an effort of helping clients make appropriate decisions as it relates to growing their economies.
The study will be completed in approximately 4 months, presuming some support from City and community leaders.
Following completion of the study, a presentation will be developed and conducted as a means of helping city officials
and community leaders understand our findings and recommendations, followed by a question and answer period.
To this end, initially we will develop a Task Force to serve as content experts to Xicon Economics as the study is
conducted; additionally, the Task Force will serve as liaisons to the community. Following appropriate introductory
meetings, requirements for the study will be reviewed to ensure that all constructs were captured in the proposal;
and changes will be made as appropriate. Next, we will conduct the socio-economic phase of the study, analyzing,
modeling, and forecasting variables such as population and demographic characteristics. Next, we will conduct a
comprehensive economic analysis regarding numerous variables as it relates to the economy of Bozeman. Among
many other variables, for example, we will analyze, model, and forecast economic output generated in each industry
sector, such as that output generated through the manufacturing sector, healthcare sector, or retail sector. After
synthesizing these findings with those associated the socio-economic phase, we will assess the feasibility of fully
developing current and future land use plans associated with growth management in and around the City of Bozeman
as it relates to findings of the economic and demographic analyses. With that, we will then develop the narrative to
augment and complement the analyses, modeling, forecasting, and findings associated with the study, with such being
presented in formal presentation and report formats.
Refer below to review the project in detail.
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Company Description & Capabilities
Historical Overview of Xicon Economics
General Overview
Xicon Economics combines intellectual rigor, objectivity, and real world experience to solve complex issues in industry
and infrastructure. Our areas of expertise include economics, research, and statistics; and all work we conduct centers
on increasing economic output in cities, states, and countries. In so doing, our work involves measurably increasing
revenues, profits, GDP, jobs, personal incomes, tax generation, and similar outputs that contribute to quality of life.
Basic information regarding Xicon Economics is noted below:
Principal Economist: Dr. Herbert Barber
Legal Name: Xicon, Inc. d/b/a Xicon Economics, est. 2010
Legal Structure: S-Corporation, Fed. ID 27-5026939
Services: Economics, Research, Statistics
Markets we Serve
Economic output is a derivative of multiple endogenous and exogenous variables, not the least of which are those
variables associated with infrastructure and industry. At Xicon Economics, we work with entities in the private and
public sectors in various economies to ensure that sustainable growth is the rule, rather than the exception such that
financial and economic output can continually increase. In our efforts to increase financial and economic output, we
capitalize upon our expertise in the following primary sectors.
Government
Most government and quasi-government systems are struggling to meet their financial obligations. At Xicon, we help
governments thrive by helping the private sector thrive. In so doing, we work with various government entities that
serve to promote economic development of private sector entities, knowing that government revenue is a derivative
of an economically viable private sector.
Infrastructure
The physical state of infrastructure around the world is in a state of decay. This holds true in many countries, including
the United States. Worse, however, economic output is inhibited when such decays exist within an economy’s
infrastructure, and while most policy makers promote infrastructure spending as a means of stimulating economic
output, such is often not the case. For example, the planning, design, and construction of a new commuter rail may
in fact serve as an economic stimulus in one economy while serving as nothing more than superfluous spending in
another economy.
At Xicon Economics we remove these ambiguities. Before spending occurs on infrastructure, we determine decisively
whether such spending will indeed serve as an economic stimulus, and increase economic output, or whether such
spending will serve only as wasteful spending. In so doing, we work with entities in the private and public sectors to
leverage existing resources to create and maintain viably sustainable infrastructure.
Industry
Many advanced economies have allowed manufacturing and industry to give way to knowledge-driven professions;
this especially holds true in the United States. Unfortunately, outsourcing manufacturing and industry to less
developed countries has had a devastating economic effect on the United States. Manufacturing and industry jobs
are, in fact, spiraling downward rapidly, seemingly unknown to most policy makers. Such cannot continue in these
economies, not if these economies intend to remain economically viable.
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Based upon years of research we have conducted, our experts recognize that countries such as the United States can
no longer serve as a knowledge-driven society while negating output from vocationally oriented entities in
manufacturing and industry. Such continuance will only serve as the demise of a country, economically, socially, and
politically. As such, our experts render quantitatively driven recommendations to clients such that our economies can
regain an economic stronghold, and thrive.
Services we Provide
The work we conduct at Xicon Economics centers on increasing financial and economic output in individual companies
and entire economies. In so doing, our work involves measurably increasing revenue, profits, GDP, jobs, personal
incomes, tax generation, and similar outputs that contribute to quality of life. Quite simply, we grow economies.
As an example of some recent work we conducted, we delivered a comprehensive economic feasibility and research
study along with our findings and recommendations, on a highly controversial one-billion-dollar port deepening
project that will allow post-Panamax trade; that project required a minimum investment of $812 million in public
monies for engineering and construction of the infrastructure project over six (6) years. Over 15 years, we projected
the return on that investment to yield $7.8 billion in direct business revenues in the private sector, not to mention,
thousands of jobs, above-average personal incomes, and billions of dollars in tax revenues; which were also calculated
and noted in the study. At Xicon Economics, we have, in fact, conducted over 2,500 similar studies. Examples of the
type of work we conduct include the following:
Expertise of our Experts
We bring intellectual rigor, objectivity, and real world experience together to solve complex engineering, economic,
and financial problems in an effort of increasing economic output. Whether calculating the economic and financial
feasibility of constructing a new manufacturing plant, analyzing policy changes in various regulatory agencies, raising
capital for a rail project, mining smart grid data to develop real options valuations, or developing advanced energy
algorithms, Xicon Economics stands ready to make a difference.
More simply, we leverage our backgrounds in the hard sciences to grow economies. In fact, every decision we render
centers around economic and financial output, regardless of the client with which we are working. Our expertise falls
broadly into one of three areas though in most cases our approach is holistic, covering all three areas.
Economics
We have extensive experience in infrastructure economics, energy economics, construction economics, and
manufacturing economics. Subsequently, economic analysis is fundamental to all work we do at Xicon. A sample of
our expertise in economics includes the following:
Econometrics Economic Impact Analysis Economic Forecasting Economic Risk Modeling
Uncertainty Analysis Labor Demand Forecasting Decision Modeling Catastrophic Modeling
Financial Forecasting Effect and Causality Revenue/Tax Forecasting
Policy Analysis Supply Modeling Demand Modeling
Research
We employ the scientific method to solve complex issues for the clients we serve. Accordingly, our experts are
seasoned researchers who are well published in referred scientific and professional journals, regardless of their
discipline. To this end, however, the research we conduct for our clients is not merely academic; it is practical; it is
Technical & Engineering Studies Complex Cost-Benefit Studies Economic Impact Studies
Strategic Planning Studies Financial Studies Econometric Studies
Feasibility Studies Survey Research Risk Engineering Studies
Market Demand Studies
Industry Sector Analysis Analysis, Modeling & Forecasting
9
applied but employs the scientific method. Thus, our research makes a difference. Our research centers on the
government, infrastructure, and industry sectors as it relates to increasing financial and economic output. The
research expertise we most often provide includes:
Research Definition Validity & Reliability Time Series Forecasting
Argument Development Sampling & Measurement Inferential Statistics
Construct Development Practical & Statistical Effect Knowledge Creation
Research Methodology Causal Modeling Research Dissemination
Statistics
We apply advanced quantitative techniques to solve complex technical, financial, and economic challenges in the
markets we serve, ultimately to grow economies. Our work is, in fact, unparalleled, whether the relationships we are
investigating are descriptive, exploratory, or causal. A few of the services we provide in this area includes:
Inferential Statistics Advanced Algorithms Mathematical Optimization
Statistical Effect Financial Engineering Stochastic Modeling
Practical Effect Statistical Analysis Simulation Modeling
Causal Modeling Decision Science Real Options Analysis
Time Series Forecasting Reliability Analysis Neural Networks
Risk Engineering
Relevant Recent/Current Projects of Xicon Economics (conducted by Dr. Herbert Barber)
1. Demographic & Economic Analysis, Modeling & Forecasting, Coffee County, United States
2. Demographic & Economic Analysis, Modeling & Forecasting, Pierce County, United States
3. Land Use Strategic Planning Studies with Market Analyses, Multiple Developments, United States
4. Demographic& Economic Analysis, Modeling, Impact, & Forecasting, Savannah MSA, United States
5. Fiscal Analysis, Modeling, & Forecasting, Vaden Group, United States
6. Demographic & Multi-Sector Economic Analysis for Maritime Industry, Atlantic Coast, United States
7. Demographic, Market, Economic & Financial Modeling, and Forecasting Feasibility Study for Housing
Development, Greystone Arbor, United States
8. Comprehensive Demographic, Economic & Housing Study, City of Grandview, United States
9. Demographic, Market, Financial & Economic Impact Analysis, Modeling, and Forecasting Feasibility Study for
Relocation of Downtown and a Large-scale Government, Commercial & Housing Project, Hahira Gateway
Community, City of Hahira, United States
10. Demographic, Market & Economic Impact Analysis for Multiple Land Use Developments (Residential,
Commercial, Mixed-Use, & Industrial), San Marcos, United States
11. Financial Modeling, and Forecasting Feasibility Study for a Housing Development, Iron Gate, United States
12. Market, Technical, Financial & Economic Impact Study for Maritime Industry, Jacksonville, United States
13. Econometric Analysis and Planning of Infrastructure across South Florida, United States
14. Infrastructure: Engineering Economic Analysis across State of Louisiana, United States
15. Demographic, Market & Financial Forecasting Study for Land Use Planning, United States
16. Economic Impact of the Construction & Manufacturing Sectors, Multiple Studies, United States
Ability of Xicon Economics to Manage this Project
Xicon Economics has conducted more than 2,500 studies and 3,500 advisories using advanced economics, research,
and statistics as a means of helping clients render technical, financial, and economic decisions as they relate to
industry and infrastructure. We can confidently state that our techniques regarding demographic and economic
analysis will be far more advanced than any other company responding to this RFP. In fact, we have aided numerous
corporations and government entities in re-analyzing data after they first hired consultants who simply had no
understanding of advanced statistical analysis, modeling, and forecasting, yet claimed they did. Can Xicon Economics
manage this project? Refer to the appendix to see what our clients say about our abilities.
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Project Team
Our Senior Experts
At Xicon Economics, we are experts in the areas of Economics, Research, and Statistics. Our senior experts average
over 30 years of experience, and all have earned research doctorates (PhD) in engineering, economics, and operations
research from regionally accredited Research-Intensive universities. Our senior experts include the following:
Dr. Baabak Ashuri, Infrastructure Economics Dr. Pat Naidoo, PE, Energy Economics
Dr. Dr. Herbert Barber, Infrastructure Economics Dr. Saty Satyamuri, PE, Infrastructure Economics
Dr. Peter Bruggink, Educational Economics Dr. Marek Sipko, Infrastructure Economics
Dr. Jackie Eastman, Marketing Research Dr. Bhuvanesh Singh, PE, Infrastructure Economics
Dr. Islam El-adaway, Infrastructure Economics Dr. Paul Sinprasertkool, Transportation Economics
Dr. Ronald Harley, PE, Energy Economics Dr. Dina Vyortkina, Educational Economics
Dr. Youakim Kalaani, PE, Energy Economics Dr. Phillip Waldrop, Manufacturing Economics
Dr. George Zhen, Infrastructure Economics Dr. Stephen Mattingly, PE, Transportation Economics
No sub-consultants will be used for completion of this study. However, we reserve the right to utilize any of
Xicon’s experts noted above should such benefit this study and be approved by the client, though such is not anticipated.
In such a case, the client will not incur additional costs.
Economist completing this Project
Herbert M Barber, Jr, PhD, PhD
Principal Economist, Infrastructure Economics
Primary Areas of Expertise Expertise as it Relates specifically to this Study
Infrastructure Economics Advanced Measurement & Statistical Analysis
Macro/Micro Economics Advanced Statistical & Practical Effect; Causality
Advanced Inferential Statistics Advanced Time Series Modeling & Forecasting
Advanced Econometrics Advanced Multiple Regression & Forecasting
Economic Effect & Causality Complex Financial & Economic Modeling
Economic Impact Modeling Construction & Land Use Modeling
Career Highlights of Dr. Herbert Barber
Author, Advisor, Engineer, Economist & Researcher
Years of Experience: 30
Years of Formal Education: 34 (BS, MS, MS, PhD, PhD)
Years of Experience using Advanced Statistical Analysis: 30
Years of Experience in Engineering, Infrastructure & Construction Sectors: 30
Years of Experience analyzing Large/Mega Projects and Initiatives: 30
Selected Most Valuable Player at Fluor Corporation, largest EPC firm in United States
Total Completed Volume of Technical, Economic, & Financial Analysis: USD100 Billion+
Only economist or analyst to statistically model and predict the 2008 collapse of the US economy using non-
traditional infrastructure variables—in 2006
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Herbert M Barber, Jr, PhD, PhD serves as the chief executive officer of Xicon Economics. He is a
respected author, advisor, engineer, economist, and researcher. Over the last 30 years, Dr. Barber has provided
advisory and consulting in engineering economic systems as it relates to the implementation of large economic
endeavors in industry and infrastructure across multiple countries. He is a seasoned scientific researcher with a keen
understanding regarding the statistical and econometric effect and causality large financial and economic endeavors
have on companies, governments, and economies around the world in both developing and developed economies.
Prior to assuming his role with Xicon Economics, Dr. Barber served in leadership positions with Seminole Southern,
Fluor Corporation, and Jacobs Engineering.
Over the years, Dr. Barber has developed a reputation for solving highly controversial problems in industry and
infrastructure as it relates to increasing financial and economic output. As a recent client noted, “Dr. Barber does not
care so much what people think as much as what he can prove econometrically and statistically.” In fact, Dr. Barber
was the only economist or analyst in the world to accurately mathematically model and predict the 2008 economic
collapse using non-traditional economic variables—in 2006.
Dr. Barber earned five academic degrees in engineering and economics that resulted in a bachelor’s degree, two
master’s degrees, and two research doctorates from Georgia Southern University, Florida State University, and
Mississippi State University. In lay terms, the research for his first master’s degree and his first doctorate focused on
the performance of large industrial investments, while the research for his second doctorate focused on the economic
impact, including statistical effect and causality, that large infrastructure investments have on economic output,
including GDP, jobs, incomes, and tax generation.
Recent Work utilizing more Rigorous Methodologies, Statistical & Econometric Analyses
(Scopes included simultaneous analyses across both the public and private sectors)
Principal Economist: Dr. Herbert Barber
Xicon Economics has conducted numerous scientific studies and investigations over the years, many of which used
methodologies and analyses similar to those required for this RFP, and many of which used methodologies and
analyses substantially more statistically and econometrically rigorous than this RFP. A few of those studies and
investigations requiring more sophisticated statistical techniques are offered by title only below:
Financial Analysis & Economic Impact of Harbor Deepening of the Port of Jacksonville, United States
Economic Impact Assessment of Infrastructure Investment on Economic Output, United States
Economic Impact Analysis of the Manufacturing, Construction, Retail, and Healthcare Sectors, United States
Analysis, Modelling, and Forecasting of US Construction Cost Indices, United States
Economic Impact of the Construction Industry in the SEUS, United States
Estimation of the Potential Economic Impact of a Cruise Industry on Savannah MSA, United States
Economic Impact Analysis of Georgia’s International Ports, United States
Economic Effect of Energy Supply & Demand on Economic Output across SS Africa, South Africa
Feasibility Study: Technical, Financial & Economic Impact Analysis, Modelling & Forecasting of a PPP Waste-
to-Energy Facilities in the Kingdom, Swaziland
Feasibility Study: Technical, Financial & Economic Analysis of a PPP Commuter Rail System, Mozambique
Economic Impact of the Manufacturing Sector in the Southeastern United States, United States
Economic Impact Analysis of the Construction Industry, United States
Economic Impact of the Local Manufacturing Sector, Bacon County, United States
Econometric Analysis of the World’s Least Developed Nations, South Africa
Economic Effect of Electricity Generation and Consumption on Economies of Scale
Feasibility Study, Waste to Energy, Kingdom of Swaziland
Feasibility Study, Commuter Rail System, Republic of Mozambique
Econometric Analysis for Privatization of the Energy Sector, Nigeria
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References
Xicon Economics works with entities in both the private and public sectors, as well as for entities operating as quasi-
public organizations and those operating under Public Private Partnerships (PPP). However, on most studies we
conduct, the private and public sectors are both involved. As such, we offer three primary references for
consideration, two public and one private, along with a brief description of each study below.
Xicon Economics conducted a demographic and economic study for Piece County Industrial Development Authority,
with comparative analyses across three other counties. The primary purpose of the study was to determine which
industry sectors were serving as economic drivers in Pierce County such that these industry sectors could be leverage
as stronger catalyst for driving economic output, e.g. GDP, jobs, incomes, tax generation, as a means of economic
growth. After developing a comprehensive analysis of the population data, statistical models (mathematical
equations) were developed for all four counties such that population forecasts could be made at 5 year increments;
such analyses were conducted using regression and time series analysis. Following population forecasting, per capita
income, racial distribution, and educational attainment were analyzed, with models and forecasts being developed
for per capita incomes. Xicon Economics then analyzed each industry sector in each of the four counties, including
wage averages, wage totals, output (GDP), job growth, inflation, and tax generation using descriptive and inferential
statistical analyses. From these analyses, the top ten industry sectors were established, followed by Xicon Economics
then calculating the statistical effect each industry sector had on total output (GDP) using an F-test under ANOVA
compared against significant alpha levels (p-values), followed by determining practical effect using Cohen’s d; with
each sector having significant effects being determined to be economic drivers.
Mr. Matt Carter Principal Economist: Dr. Herbert Barber
Executive Director Dates of Study: Aug 2013-Nov 2013
Industrial Development & Building Authority Population under Study: 30,000 per county (4)
ida@piercecountyga.org Xicon Employees conducting Study: 1 PhD
+1 912 670 0016
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Xicon Economics conducted a highly complex demographic and economic study for the Jacksonville Port Authority,
with the purpose being to determine the financial feasibility and economic impact a $1 billion investment involving
deepening of the St Johns River by five feet in an effort of capturing post-Panamax container shipping from the Asian
market. During the study, we developed numerous complex econometric models coupled against various alpha levels
to forecast capture of the Asian market and the impact of such capture to the state of Florida and United States
through 2025. Along with some 3,000 jobs that would be created, and taxes, we forecasted returns of $7.8 billion.
Xicon Economics conducted a demographic and economic study for Coffee County Industrial Development Authority,
with comparative analyses across three other counties. The primary purpose of the study was to determine which
industry sectors were serving as economic drivers in Coffee County such that these industry sectors could be leverage
as stronger catalyst for driving economic output, e.g. GDP, jobs, incomes, tax generation, as a means of economic
growth. After developing a comprehensive analysis of the population data, statistical models (mathematical
equations) were developed for all four counties such that population forecasts could be made at 5 year increments;
such analyses were conducted using regression and time series analysis. Following population forecasting, per capita
income, racial distribution, and educational attainment were analyzed, with models and forecasts being developed
for per capita incomes. Xicon Economics then analyzed each industry sector in each of the four counties, including
wage averages, wage totals, output (GDP), job growth, inflation, and tax generation using descriptive and inferential
statistical analyses. From these analyses, the top ten industry sectors were established, followed by Xicon Economics
then calculating the statistical effect each industry sector had on total output (GDP) using an F-test under ANOVA
compared against significant alpha levels (p-values), followed by determining practical effect using Cohen’s d; with
each sector having significant effects being determined to be economic drivers.
Mr. Todd Mullis Principal Economist: Dr. Herbert Barber
Former Sr Vice President/Board Member Dates of Study: May 2013-July 2013
First National Bank/Development Authority Population under Study: 35,000 per county (4)
todd.mullis@yahoo.com Xicon Employees conducting Study: 1 PhD
+1 912 331 3300
Mr. Lynn Fine Principal Economist: Dr. Herbert Barber
Vice President Dates of Study: January 2015-March 2015
Formerly Davin, Inc. Population under Study: 21 million
lwfine1932@yahoo.com Xicon Employees conducting Study: 1 PhD
+1 407 618 3137
14
Outline of the Study
Introduction
The City of Bozeman has experienced relatively steady growth in recent years, as has Gallatin County. In fact, as a
percentage of state population, the population of Gallatin County is outpacing population growth for the State of
Montana. In 1970, the population of Gallatin County as a percentage of the population of Montana was only 4.7
percent. However, that same percentage was 9.8 percent in 2015 (SD1969-2015=1.6), meaning in lay terms that an
increasing percentage of Montanans are opting to live in Gallatin County. Modeling the population of Gallatin County,
we expect the county population to increase to nearly 109,000 residents in 2025, and 116,000 in 2030, using
Pop=1466.9x+24909, R2=.964 (p<.01). Refer to the table and figure below to review the model.
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.981975 R Square 0.964275 Adj R Square 0.963481
Std Error 3914.262
Observations 47
ANOVA
df SS MS F Sig F
Regression 1 18609590396 18609590396 1214.611 3.33E-34
Residual 45 689464991.6 15321444.26
Total 46 19299055387
Coeffs Std Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 24908.99 1160.376189 21.4663048 2.82E-25 22571.87 27246.11 22571.87 27246.11
t 1466.93 42.091268 34.8512656 3.33E-34 1382.158 1551.71 1382.158 1551.71
Population Modeling, Gallatin County
Populations, 1969-2017
Source: BEA, 2017
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015Gallatin County Montana %State
15
Population growth such as that experienced by Gallatin County mandates that the City of Bozeman, as well as Gallatin
County and surrounding areas, take appropriate steps to manage such growth to ensure proper use of available
resources; hence several plans the City has developed. To this end, the findings generated through this study has the
potential to not only be incorporated into one or two current or future studies, but several. For example, the socio-
economic e.g. population growth and demographic characteristics, are necessary components to most community
and economically-oriented studies as population growth drives various variables, such as land demand and housing
demand, as well as economic output, e.g. GDP and incomes, from all industry sectors, e.g. healthcare and retail.
For the economic and demographic study discussed herein, we will begin the study by developing a Task Force, if such
is not in place. The Task Force will serve as content experts to Xicon Economics, and as importantly, as community
liaisons to the greater Bozeman area. The Task Force will be expected to attend substantive meetings with Xicon
Economics, working with Xicon Economics in a collaborative manner. Following completion of all introductory-type
meetings and presentations, the intended approach that will be used during completion of this study will be
presented; again, in collaboration with the Task Force—and others as necessary. That said, the actual tasks deriving
our intended approach are structed in a manner appropriate to efficient completion of the study objectives described
in the RFP. However, some scope changes can occur without changes in the overall fee.
We will initially conduct the socio-economic phase of the study, with that phase consisting of us analyzing, modeling,
and forecasting, as appropriate, the population and demographic characteristics of the city, county, and state; such
information becomes necessary later in the study when we begin reviewing other variables, such as land use; and
economic output among the various industry sectors. As we complete the socio-economic phase of the study, we will
begin completing the economic phase. In so doing, we will analyze, model, and forecast numerous variables associated
with the economic structure of the City of Bozeman, Gallatin County and the State of Montana. This phase will be
comprehensive in that we will analyze variables associated with building permits and land use to variables associated
with economic output, e.g. GDP and jobs, of each industry sector, e.g. manufacturing and healthcare, while also
investigating unemployment, real (un)employment, inflation, and other variables, as well as the impact these variables
have on economic output across industry sectors. The culminating analysis will yield the industry sectors in the city,
county, and state that econometrically serve as catalysts for economic growth, i.e. economic drivers. Following, we
will synthesis our findings across the variables under study such that a qualitative understanding can begin being
formed among City officials. All such analysis and synthesis is imperative to sound economic development, so those
responsible for economic development in the region can leverage the industry sectors actually driving economic
growth while simultaneously improving the remaining industry sectors.
Next, we will assess recent and current plans for managing population and economic growth in the city—and county
(as the city and county are interdependent). More so than with any other phase of the study, this phase will be
conducted under collaboration with the Task Force, remembering that the primary objectives of the Task Force are
to serve as content experts and community liaisons. During this phase, we will review each previously developed land-
use planning to ensure feasibility with respect to findings (growth patterns, etc.) generated through the demographic
and economic study presented herein.
Finally, we will synthesize all findings relative to the project holistically, with the project culminating into a draft
narrative that will be presented to multiple stakeholders. From comments and suggestions established through these
presentations, the final study will be developed, published, and presented to the City in the manner preferred by the
city officials.
16
Scope of Work
Xicon Economics will perform the following specific tasks, coupled with other tasks as necessary:
Task 1
Establish a Task Force, if not already established, of governmental and community leaders who will serve as content
experts for this investigation; and in so doing, offer essential insight to Xicon Economics as the study is conducted and
serve as community liaisons.
Task 2
Analyze, model, and forecast the socio-economic trends of Bozeman/Gallatin County relative to the socio-economic
trends of the state of Montana and the United States.
a. Analyze, model, and forecast population data for Bozeman/Gallatin County, Montana, and United States at
5-year increments using simple regression, multiple regression, parabolic regression, time series analysis
with single independent variables, time series analysis with multiple independent variables, or other
statistical technique as appropriate for data fit. Compare all analyses and modeling as appropriate against
commonly established measures of statistical significance and practical significance, such as alpha levels
calculated through ANOVA (p-values), F-tests, and Cohen’s d.
b. Analyze the racial distribution of Bozeman/Gallatin County, Montana, and United States using descriptive
statistics, such as measures of central tendency.
c. Analyze the educational attainment of Bozeman/Gallatin County, Montana, and United States using
descriptive statistics, such as measures of central tendency.
d. Analyze, model, and forecast personal income and/or per capita income, and/or household incomes for
Bozeman/Gallatin County, Montana, and United States suing regression analysis leveraged against
coefficients of determination (R2) and other measures of statistical fit.
e. Qualitatively assess the relationships between the socio-economic trends (noted above) of Bozeman/Gallatin
County and the socio-economic trends of state of Montana and the United States.
Graphical Examples of Task 2
Historical Population, Jacksonville MSA compared to State of Florida, 1970-2014
Secondary Units: Percentage (%) 9.16 8.86 8.59 8.32 8.27 8.09 8.03 7.93 7.84 7.62 7.57 7.41 7.34 7.29 7.28 7.29 7.31 7.29 7.28 7.16 7.15 7.15 7.16 7.11 7.05 7.02 7.09 7.09 7.07 7.04 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.00 7.06 7.11 7.14 7.16 7.16 7.13 7.13 7.13 7.02 -
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
197019751980198519901995200020052010Jacksonville MSA Population as Precentage of State Population Jacksonville MSA State of Florida
17
Total Population vs Working Population (%), Jacksonville MSA
Secondary Units: %
Projected Population, Jacksonville MSA
42.0
43.0
44.0
45.0
46.0
47.0
48.0
49.0
50.0
51.0
52.0
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Population % Wkg Linear (% Wkg)
1,517,296
1,611,946
1,706,595
1,250,000
1,300,000
1,350,000
1,400,000
1,450,000
1,500,000
1,550,000
1,600,000
1,650,000
1,700,000
1,750,000
20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920306.7%
6.2%
5.9%
18
Recent County Populations, 2011-2012
Racial Distribution by County, 2010
Ref: US Census, 2010; 2013
Estimated Educational Attainment, Pierce County (%)
Ref: US Census 2005, 2010; 2013
18,597
18,726
36,195
30,305
18,587 18,844
35,821
30,322
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Brantley Pierce Ware Wayne
C: 94.4%
C: 86.9%
C: 64.9%
C: 72.3%
A: 2.9%A: 8.9%
A: 29.6%
A: 19.7%
O: 2.7%O: 4.2%O: 5.5%O: 8.0%0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Brantley Pierce Ware Wayne
-0.05% +0.63% -1.03% +0.06%
C: Caucasian
A: Africa American
O: Other
30.2%
59.7%
6.8%
2.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Less than High School
High School (Diploma, Certificate, AS, AA)
Bachelor's Degree (BS, BA)
Master's Degree (MS, MA, MEd)
Professional Degree (JD, MD, DMin)
Doctorate (PhD, EdD, EngD)
Georgia
Wayne
Ware
Pierce
Brantley
19
Figure 9 Graphical Representation of Unemployment, Coffee, 2013
Note: Lighter shades represent higher unemployment; darker shades represent lower unemployment.
Unemployment, Bacon County, 1990-2013
County Model R2 2013 2014 2015
Appling Y=611.56X+361.58 .992 27,270 27,882 28,493
Coffee Y=623.55X+466.36 .986 27,903 28,526 29,150
Tift Y=702.80X-97.91 .993 30,825 31,528 32,230
Ware Y=626.98X+463.99 .990 28,051 28,678 29,305
Mean - - 28,512 29,154 29,795
Table 2 Projected Economic Output per Capita, Coffee County
20
Task 3
Analyze, model, and forecast the economic trends of the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors of
Bozeman/Gallatin County relative to the socio-economic trends of the state of Montana and United States.
a. In collaboration with the Task Force noted above, establish the specific constructs that will be investigated
during this study, especially those constructs that may fall outside, or be in addition to, what we typically
analyze for this type work.
b. After operationalizing the constructs into variables, collect appropriate data regarding the economic
variables associated with the residential, commercial, and industry sector.
c. Analyze, model, and forecast economic variables in the residential sector using descriptive and inferential
statistics as necessary. Variables will consist of, but not be limited to, the following:
i. Building permits
ii. Land values
iii. Housing costs and/or values
iv. Socio-economic variables, such as household income and per capita income per home type
v. Housing stock verses housing need based on prior population forecasting
vi. Market variables as defined by the Task Force
b. Analyze, model, and forecast economic variables in the commercial and industry sectors
(manufacturing, construction, retail, wholesale, healthcare, education, etc), such as the following:
i. Inflation, using measures of central tendency
ii. Unemployment, using measures of central tendency; and time series forecasting to forecast
unemployment at 1 year increments
iii. Real (un)employment, using measures of central tendency
iv. Interaction of unemployment, real (un)employment, and inflation, using measures of central
tendency
v. Commercial and industry sectors by employment, using measures of central tendency and
correlation using the Pearson Product-Moment method
vi. Commercial and industry sectors by economic output (wages and/or GDP), using measures of
central tendency and correlation using the Pearson Product-Moment method
vii. Statistical effect of employment from each commercial and industry sector on total employment
using F-tests via ANOVA; and practical effect using Cohen’s d
viii. Practical effect of economic output (wages and/or GDP) from each commercial and industry sector
on total economic output of all commercial and industry sectors, using F-tests via ANOVA; and
practical effect using Cohen’s d
ix. Through the above analyses, determine which commercial and industry sectors serve as economic
drivers (economic catalysts) for Bozeman/Gallatin County
Graphical Examples of Task 3
Building Permits Issued, Lowndes
96
105
115 112 104
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11
Year 2012 Year 2013 Year 2014 Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017
Units Sold CMA(12)Units Projected
Mean Home Cost (USD)
Projected New Housing Needs, 2017
Polinomial Model
y = -5.3452x5 + 260.03x4 -4360.7x3 + 27987x2 -41920x + 1501620
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Projected
2017 Projections
January 69 July 84
February 76 August 80
March 68 September 71
April 70 October 71
May 75 November 69
June 75 December 64
Total: 872
Overall Model Fit: Significant, F(1, 54)=31.0; p<.001
22
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017
Units
Year
Projected
Area
Population
New Households
Projected
New Homes
Needed
Projected
New Rental
Units Needed
Projected
Vacancy
Cumulative
New Homes
Needed
2015 2,700 41 24 13 4 284
2016 2,779 40 23 13 4 324
2017 2,859 41 24 13 4 365
2018 2,938 40 23 13 4 405
2019 3,018 41 24 13 4 446
2020 3,097 40 23 13 4 486
Forecasted Housing Needs, Forest Heights Area
Projected Housing Occupancy
Notes
Dependent Variable: Occupancy
Independent Variable: Economic Output
Explained Variance: 40.8%; r=.639
Degrees of Freedom (df): 1,12
Statistical Effect (ANOVA): Sig @ .05 alpha level
Practical Effect (Cohen’s d): large, d >.8
Projected
23
24
Unemployment Rate by Workforce Investment Area
Projected Unemployment Rate, Hilton Head Island, South Carolina
25
Industry Sector Employment Distribution, Wayne County
Industry Employment Distribution, County compared to State
21.6
20.5
19.6
18.1
15.5
14.6
13.9
7.3
6.3
5.6
44.4
48.4
20.3
35.8
19.0
14.1
35.8
2.223.7
23.9
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Retail
Healthcare
Wholesale
Manufacturing
Transportation
ConstructionHotel/Food
Agric/Forestry
Public Admin
Prof/Tech
County Emp/1000 Capita
State Emp/1000 Capita
26
Interaction of Total County Wages vs US Inflation, All Industry Sectors
Units: Primary Axis: Wages, USD; Secondary Axis: US Inflation Rate, %
Relationships across Industry Sectors
3.4
2.8
1.6
2.3
2.7
3.4
3.2
2.8
H 3.8
L -0.4
1.6
3.2
2.1
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
450,000,000
500,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Brantley
Pierce
Ware
Wayne
US Inflation
Poly. (Brantley)
Poly. (Pierce)
Poly. (Ware)
Poly. (Wayne)
27
Sector GDP as % of MSA Total GDP, Savannah MSA Manufacturing GDP vs GDP as % of MSA Total, Savannah MSA
Primary Axis: Savannah MSA Manufacturing GDP
Total GDP, Savannah MSA
GDP Units: USD Millions, current
18.2%
21.2%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420159,2619,4909,90510,74911,67312,74713,25613,17313,14413,44513,74214,33314,93015,80917,030 -
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Construction Education/Healthcare Manufacturing
Retail SAV MSA Total Poly. (SAV MSA Total)
28
Projected Combined Financial and Economic Revenue
Units: USD 26,169,25925,850,83925,912,45528,036,45031,568,26234,697,12633,454,87032,885,09332,807,57335,335,34839,612,56443,355,34641,633,45040,764,24940,514,62843,477,18539,446,63839,203,79239,525,89943,002,66148,676,13053,771,58052,097,84251,448,59651,556,20155,766,28462,773,81368,977,72066,490,44265,341,06065,170,49970,174,40150,932,07550,586,13850,971,25555,422,78462,700,46069,227,79767,039,54366,172,61266,280,88471,662,22780,633,65788,567,94685,341,59683,835,54183,587,19789,974,6240
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
Without Deepening Moderate Penetration Aggressive Penetration
Poly. (Without Deepening)Poly. (Moderate Penetration)Poly. (Aggressive Penetration)
29
Figure 15 Mean Annual Income, Private Sector vs Public Sector
Sector df1, df2 F Sig. F R2
Agriculture 1, 11 .073 .791 - -
Construction 1, 11 7.828 .017 .05 .416
Manufacturing 1, 11 .490 .498 - -
Wholesale Trade 1, 11 18.407 .001 .01 .626
Retail Trade 1, 11 2.287 .159 - -
Finance 1, 11 8.493 .014 .05 .436
Professional 1, 11 1.106 .316 - -
Healthcare 1,11 .068 .800 - -
Table 11 Statistical Effect of Sector Income on Total Income
Projected Practical Effect of Manufacturing Sector GDP on Total State GDP
d=2.34
X1 X2
d > .8, large effect
30
Task 4
Qualitatively assess the relationships between the economic trends (noted above) of the residential, commercial, and
industrial sectors of the Bozeman/Gallatin County area relative to the socio-economic trends (noted above) of state
of Montana and the United States (Analysis will be conducted through a comprehensive narrative (write-up)).
Task 5
Qualitatively analyze and access the conditions necessary to ensure 1) Chapter 3 of the Community Plan (n.d.) and 2)
additional subarea plan, such as but not limited to the Downtown Bozeman Improvement Plan (December 14, 2009),
are economically viable (Analysis will be conducted through a comprehensive narrative (write-up)).
Regarding Task 5, proposal evaluators are reminded that the principal economist for this project, Dr. Herbert Barber,
is not only an economist, but a civil engineer who practiced civil engineering for several years along with conducting
economic analysis. As such, Dr. Barber has a keen understanding of the planning, engineering, and construction
processes associated with the Community Plan and other plans regarding the infrastructure, housing, commercial,
industrial, and other sectors.
Task 6
Develop the narrative (write-up) for the study, along with recommendations. Also, develop the presentation, and
deliver findings in the manner preferred by the Task Force and city officials such that definitive decisions can be
rendered in due course.
Meetings
Xicon Economics will attend and/or lead meetings and presentations as necessary to conduct the study. In general,
the required meetings and presentations are anticipated to be the following:
1. Introductory meeting with the Planning Board to discuss and describe the project methodology and
application of outcomes
2. Presentation of initial findings to the Economic Development Council (appointed citizen board)
3. Presentation of initial findings to the Planning Board
4. Presentation of draft report to the City Commission
5. Presentation of final report to the Planning Board
6. Presentation of final report to the City Commission
Xicon Economics meets with clients as necessary to ensure client satisfaction, without reservation, in person.
Schedule
Units: Months
Note: Meetings with stakeholders will be held as necessary.
Task 1 2 3 4
1 Designation of Task Force (if not established)
2 Socio-Economic Analysis
3 Economic Analysis
4 Qualitative Assessment/Synthesis of Economic Analysis
5 Qualitative Analysis/Assessment of Planning Objectives
6 Narrative, Presentation & Deliveries (as necessary)
- Final Study Rework/Delivery
31
Support required from City Officials
Xicon Economics requests that representatives from the City be available to address questions and review our work
in a timely manner as necessary. We further request that data and other resources be made available to us, if such
are available.
Task Force & Public Engagement
Xicon Economics requests that a Task Force be developed the first week of the study, if such is not already in place.
The Task Force will consist of city officials and community leaders, preferably approximately 10-15 persons, leaning
more heavily toward community leaders; with the purpose of the Task Force being to serve as 1) content experts as
it relates to providing valuable insight into the constructs being examined during the study, and 2) liaisons to the
community. The Task Force is expected to attend and participate in every substantive meeting led by Xicon Economics.
Further, and equally as important, public engagement is necessary for appropriate execution and acceptance of the
findings derived through this study. Such will occur through the Task Force and open forum meetings and
presentations to the community at large, with appropriate public notice advertising and other marketing activities.
Deliverables
Xicon Economics will provide the following deliverables in the study within 4 months:
1. Economic & Demographic Study
a. Executive Summary
b. Introduction
c. Methodology
d. Socio-Economic Analysis and Findings
e. Economic Analysis and Findings
f. Planning Analysis and Findings
g. Assessments/Syntheses and Findings
h. Summary
i. Recommendations
2. Presentations (as necessary)
a. Delivery
b. Answers to Questions
c. Study Corrections
3. Project Delivery
a. Electronic Copy
b. Printed Color Copies
All analyses are contingent upon the reasonable availability of sound data, economic and otherwise.
32
Fee Structure
Refer to the sealed envelope.
33
Appendix
Ability of Dr. Herbert Barber to Deliver work as Promised
We offer the following comments from recent public sector clients:
Dr. Barber applied mathematical models to forecast
profit and loss, economic impact and growth, including
GDP, jobs, personal income, and tax revenue to a highly
contentious multi‐billion-dollar public sector project.
His work is highly complex and very important in our
decision to implement what is a huge financial
undertaking.
Chairman, Infrastructure Project Task Force
CEO, Multi‐Billion Dollar Logistics Company
Dr. Barber’s study was very difficult to understand
because the subject is so mathematically complicated
for most of us, but in the end, he made strong
recommendations that were based solely on his
analyses.
Board Member
Dr. Barber’s work focuses on mathematical modeling,
on the numbers. He does not care so much what people
think as much as what he can prove economically and
statistically – unlike our last consultant.
Co-Chair, Task Force
CEO, Multi‐Billion Dollar Real Estate Company
He has solved multiple very complicated undertakings,
and in so doing, he did not just provide us the positive
aspects of our decisions but also the ramifications.
Member, Mayor’s Team
Lead Counsel
Based on Xicon’s study, including several readings of Dr.
Barber’s analyses, findings, and recommendations of a
very complex subject, I see tremendous value in his
work, especially in terms of his data analyses. We need
to readily accept his work.
Board Member
Senior Scientific Researcher
As a fellow PhD level researcher, Dr. Barber knows how
to address controversial topics with rigorous analyses,
stating the positive and the negative, allowing us to
ponder many tough questions we had not considered
as a committee.
Harbor Deepening Task Force
Director of Research
Dr. Barber’s analyses and forecasting for capturing
post-Panamax shipping was more comprehensive
than what we have seen in the past; his work will
have lasting impressions on US trade.
Chair, Harbor Deepening Project
Dr. Barber’s job growth and other economic impact
projections were much more realistic than what our
previous consultant provided. His work focused on
statistical analysis that he could prove, not pie in the
sky.
Director of Engineering
Dr. Barber recognizes the complexity of our project
as well as the strengths and weaknesses of applying
econometric analyses to complex policy issues. We
need to take his findings and recommendations – as
well as his cited limitations – very seriously, as this is
a huge undertaking that will impact the US for
generations.
Economic Researcher
Dr. Barber’s team used time series analyses with
multiple independent variables to analyze, model,
and forecast technical data in twenty-two markets,
while coupling these forecasts with financial and
economic variables. Their findings proved more
robust than any prior analyses we had ever seen.
Chief Financial Officer
Transportation Company
Dr. Barber knows how to address controversial topics
with rigorous analyses, stating the positive and the
negative, allowing us to ponder many tough
questions we had not considered as a committee.
Senior Researcher
I will give you this. You are ultimately very definitive
with your opinions and recommendations—and they
are based on robust analyses. How could anyone
argue against you?
Executive Director, Economic Development
We need to take his recommendations very
seriously, whether we like his findings and
recommendations or not.
Executive Director, Economic Development
Xicon took on a very complex topic that would have
economic implications across the United States for
generations.
34
Ability of Dr. Herbert Barber to complete Projects as Scheduled and Budgeted
Xicon Economics has never not completed a project in full, on schedule, and within budget. We offer the following
comments from recent projects:
I enjoyed working with Dr. Barber and his team. Their work was completed with the utmost quality…
and on time.
Chair Person, Project Committee
He took ownership of the project and ran it as if it was his money he was spending.
Member, Project Initiative
They provided a down-to-earth approach to our project.
Co-Chair, Task Force
Xicon is focused on the special needs of its clients. Our team found them to be responsive to the
financial constraints of our organization as they conducted their study.
Member, Project Task Force
We really enjoyed working with Xicon. They were diligent in making sure our project was completed
on budget.
Councilman
We really enjoyed working with the team at Xicon. They did a great job!
Chairman, Task Force
The only problem we experienced was when we asked them to deliver the study two weeks later
than scheduled, and that was purely a political move on our part.
Chairman, Task Force
Dr. Barber’s team completed the project under budget and ahead of schedule.
Project Director