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Home My WebLink AboutAppendix F-Socioeconomic Data and Growth Trends prepared by: Robert Peccia & Associates www.rpa-hln.com February 15, 2016 prepared for: City of Bozeman & Montana Department of Transportation BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN SOCIOECONOMIC DATA AND GROWTH TRENDS Technical Memorandum FINAL BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 i FINALTABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents ....................................................................................... i List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................................... iii Abbreviations / Acronyms ........................................................................ iv 1.0. Introduction ........................................................................................ 1 1.1. Study Area Boundary .................................................................................................................................. 2 2.0. Population and Demographic Trends ................................................ 4 2.1. Historic Population Trends ....................................................................................................................... 4 2.2. Population Changes Since 2010 ............................................................................................................. 6 2.3. Race and Ethnicity ........................................................................................................................................ 7 2.4. Age Distribution ............................................................................................................................................ 8 2.5. Disability Status ........................................................................................................................................... 10 2.6. Personal Travel and Commuting Characteristics............................................................................ 11 2.7. Montana State University Student Population ............................................................................... 12 3.0. Housing Units and Households ........................................................ 13 3.1. Number of Housing Units ....................................................................................................................... 14 3.2. Population Per Housing Unit ................................................................................................................. 15 4.0. Employment and Income Trends ..................................................... 16 4.1. Historic Employment in Gallatin County ........................................................................................... 16 4.2. Employment Trends By Industry ........................................................................................................... 17 4.3. Current Employment Statistics .............................................................................................................. 19 4.4. Income Levels .............................................................................................................................................. 20 The City of Bozeman, MDT and RPA attempt to provide accommodations for any known disability that may interfere with a person participating in any service, program, or activity associated with this study. Alternative accessible formats of this information will be provided upon request. For further information, call (406) 447-5000 or (406) 582-2280. Accommodation requests must be made at least 48 hours prior to the scheduled activity and / or meeting. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 ii FINAL4.5. Poverty Status .............................................................................................................................................. 21 5.0. Existing Land Use and Development ............................................... 22 5.1. Existing Land Use ........................................................................................................................................ 22 5.1.1. Historic Development Patterns and Current Land Uses ................................................................. 22 5.1.2. Recent Annexations...................................................................................................................................... 24 5.1.3. Current Development Projects ................................................................................................................. 26 5.2. Future Land Use .......................................................................................................................................... 27 6.0. Future Projections ........................................................................... 28 6.1. Population and Housing Projections .................................................................................................. 28 6.1.1. Gallatin County ............................................................................................................................................. 28 6.1.2. City of Bozeman ............................................................................................................................................ 30 6.1.3. Bozeman TMP Study Area ......................................................................................................................... 31 6.2. Employment Projections .......................................................................................................................... 33 6.2.1. Gallatin County ............................................................................................................................................. 33 6.2.2. Bozeman TMP Study Area ......................................................................................................................... 34 6.3. Allocation of Future Growth ................................................................................................................... 35 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Study Area Boundary ...................................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2: Fall Enrollment at Montana State University (1980-2015) ............................................................. 13 Figure 3: Existing Land Use in the City of Bozeman (2015) .............................................................................. 23 Figure 4: City of Bozeman Annexations (1996-2014) .......................................................................................... 24 Figure 5: City of Bozeman Acreage ............................................................................................................................ 25 Figure 6: Current Development Projects .................................................................................................................. 26 Figure 7: Future Land Use Map for the Bozeman Area ...................................................................................... 27 Figure 8: New Housing Allocation (2014 – 2040) ................................................................................................. 37 Figure 9: New Job Allocation (2014 - 2040) ............................................................................................................ 38 BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 iii FINALLIST OF TABLES Table 1: Historic Population Data ................................................................................................................................. 5 Table 2: Historic Annual Average Growth Rate in Population ........................................................................... 6 Table 3: Population Changes Since 2010 ................................................................................................................... 7 Table 4: Population Race and Ethnicity Data (2009-2013) .................................................................................. 8 Table 5: Age Distribution (1980 to 2010) ................................................................................................................. 10 Table 6: Mode of Transportation to Work (2009-2013) ..................................................................................... 12 Table 7: Number of Housing Units (1980-2010) ................................................................................................... 14 Table 8: Employment Trends for Gallatin County (1980–2013) ...................................................................... 17 Table 9: Civilian Employment by Industry (2009-2013) ...................................................................................... 18 Table 10: Employment Statistics (August 2015) .................................................................................................... 20 Table 11: Income Levels (2009-2013) ........................................................................................................................ 21 Table 12: Poverty Status (2009-2013) ........................................................................................................................ 21 Table 13: Population Projections for Gallatin County ......................................................................................... 29 Table 14: Population Projections for the City of Bozeman ............................................................................... 31 Table 15: Population and Housing Unit Projections ............................................................................................ 33 Table 16: Employment Projections to 2040 for Gallatin County ..................................................................... 34 Table 17: Employment Projections to 2040 for the TMP Study Area ........................................................... 35 BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 iv FINALABBREVIATIONS / ACRONYMS ACS American Community Survey BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis EPS Economic Profile System FHWA Federal Highway Administration MDT Montana Department of Transportation REMI Regional Economic Models, Inc. RPA Robert Peccia and Associates TCC Transportation Coordinating Committee TMP Transportation Master Plan TWG Technical Working Group W&P Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 1 FINALSocioeconomic Data and Growth Trends 1.0. INTRODUCTION Local and regional population and economic characteristics have important influences on motor vehicle travel in the Bozeman area. The study area for the Bozeman Transportation Master Plan (TMP) includes all of the land within the city of Bozeman and encompasses adjacent lands in Gallatin County where suburban development has occurred and will likely occur in the future. A review of demographics within the study area is appropriate to gain an understanding of historical trends in population, age, employment and other socioeconomic conditions. Understanding the composition of the population is necessary, as the data may influence the types of improvements that are identified. For example, an aging population may indicate a need for specific types of transportation improvements such as transit services and/or non-motorized infrastructure improvements. Additionally, the presence of a disadvantaged population may warrant other considerations. Existing land uses and potential land use changes have a direct influence on the transportation network and its use. For this reason, it is important to review community development patterns over time and understand where community conditions may be favorable for new residential and commercial growth. This memorandum discusses the background and assumptions used to project growth in the Bozeman area to the year 2035. By using population, employment and other socioeconomic trends as aids, the future transportation requirements will be defined. A travel demand model (traffic model) of the transportation system for the Bozeman area was built by the Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) and information from this analysis will be used to allocate future residential and employment growth. The changes to the system that are projected to occur by the year 2040 will be incorporated into the model to forecast future transportation conditions. Using the updated model, various scenarios will be developed to test a range of transportation improvements to determine what affects they will have on the transportation system within the Bozeman area. Although not within the study area, population growth occurring in the incorporated areas of Belgrade, Manhattan, and Three Forks and in the unincorporated Four Corners area is an important consideration for the TMP. Residents of these Gallatin Valley areas work, shop, attend educational institutions, and recreate in Bozeman and their commuting patterns have impacts on the local transportation system. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 2 FINAL1.1. STUDY AREA BOUNDARY A map showing the study area boundary for the TMP is shown as Figure 1. The study area includes the Bozeman city limits, other lands within the Urban Boundary, as well as areas with potential to be annexed into the city in the future. The study area boundary is important as it defines the limit of what will or will not be considered in developing the TMP. Although a travel demand model will be developed which utilizes land use considerations outside of the study area boundary, analysis of “on-the-ground” transportation system conditions on the city’s transportation system will only occur within the boundary limits. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 3 FINAL Figure 1: Study Area Boundary 9090191848586411345205345235191191HIGHLAND BLVDS 3RD AVEWILLSON AVEGRIFFIN DRKAGY BLVDDURSTON RDOAK STCOLLEGE STBOZEMAN TRAIL RDBAXTERLNBABCOCK STE VALLEY CENTER RDPEACH STMENDENHALL STS CHURCH AVE S 19TH AVESPRINGHILL RDS11THAVECOTTONWOOD RDS8THAVEGALLATINRDHUFFINE LNFRONTAGE RDROUSE AVEBRIDGER DRBRIDGERCANYONRDN 7TH AVEN 19TH AVEJACKRABBIT LNMAIN STDURSTON RDCOTTONWOOD RDDAVIS LNBABCOCK STBAXTER LNOAK STGARFIELD STPATTERSON RDFOWLER LNGOOCH HILL RDBLACKWOOD RDSOURDOUGH RDGOLDENSTEIN LNS 3RD AVESTUCKY RDFERGUSON AVEFOWLER AVE27TH STBEAR CANYON RD LOVE LNHARPER PUCKETT RDGRAF STNASH RDBOZEMAN TRAIL TAYABESHOCKUP RDFRONTAGE RDFORT ELLIS RDGRAF ST CATMOUNT STNELSON RDM CILH ATTAN RDMANLEY RDSTORY MILL RDStudy AreaBoundary012½MilesBOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN Map LegendRailroadUrban BoundaryMontana State UniversitySource: City of Bozeman, MDT, RPAStudy AreaBozeman City LimitsPark BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 4 FINAL2.0. POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 2.1. HISTORIC POPULATION TRENDS Table 1 shows the total populations for Gallatin County, the City of Bozeman, all incorporated areas of the county, and unincorporated areas of the county over the 1970 to 2010 period. Since considerable growth and development seen in Gallatin County occurs in and around incorporated communities of the county, historical population totals for incorporated cities and towns and for unincorporated areas were examined. These population totals were provided to help identify general trends in “urban versus rural” living within the county. The table also shows the overall change (shown as a percentage) in residents of the County, the city of Bozeman, and other geographies since 1970. Population data for the State of Montana and the nation provide benchmarks to help compare local population growth trends. Gallatin County has been one of Montana’s fastest growing counties over the last 30 years. In terms of numeric increases, Gallatin County has seen the most new residents of any county in the state since 1980. Table 1 shows the total population of Gallatin County grew from 32,505 in 1970 to 89,513 in 2010—adding more than 57,000 residents. With the exception of the 1980s, the county’s population has increased by more than 30% every decade since 1970. Population growth during the 1980s was still notable and the number of county residents increased by nearly 18% between 1980 and 1990. Likewise, the city of Bozeman experienced significant growth over the 1970-2010 period; however, population increases were not quite at the rates seen for Gallatin County as a whole. Between 1970 and 2010, the city’s population grew from 18,670 to 37,280 residents. Population growth slowed to less than 5% during the 1980s similar to the trend seen for Gallatin County but total population increases of between 15% and 35% were seen during the other decades of the 1970-2010 period. Both the State of Montana and the United States (U.S.) showed population increases during each decade between 1970 and 2010 but the rates of increase were well below those seen in Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman during the period. The population of the U.S. and State of Montana grew by about 52% and 42%, respectively, between 1970 and 2010. Over the same four decades, the population of Gallatin County grew by more than 175% and Bozeman’s population doubled. Historical census data also shows that all other incorporated communities within Gallatin County grew significantly between 1970 and 2010. The population of the city of Belgrade, the second largest incorporated area in the county, grew from just over 1,300 residents in 1970 to a 2010 population of 7,389. The 2010 population in Belgrade was 4.65 times higher than it was in 1970. As Table 1 shows, other incorporated Between 1970 and 2010, the population of the City of Bozeman doubled from 18,670 to 37,280 and grew at an average rate of about 2.5% per year. Gallatin County’s population grew by 2.75 times over the same period at an average rate of about 4.4% per year. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 5 FINALcommunities in the county did not grow as dramatically as Belgrade during the 1970-2010 period; however, notable increases in population were still seen in Manhattan, Three Forks, and West Yellowstone. During the four-decade long period, the populations of the town of Manhattan increased by 86%, the city of Three Forks increased by more than 57%, and the town of West Yellowstone grew by 68%. The population of unincorporated areas of Gallatin County increased by 311% over the 1970-2010 period, with significant growth seen during the 1970s and after 1990. In 2010, the number of residents living outside incorporated communities in Gallatin County was 40,184—4.1 times higher than in 1970. The majority of the unincorporated area population in 2010 lived in the greater Gallatin Valley area between Bozeman, Belgrade and Four Corners and along the I-90/Frontage Road corridor between Manhattan and Three Forks. Table 1: Historic Population Data Area 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Change (1970-2010) Gallatin County 32,505 42,865 50,463 67,831 89,513 57,008 Net Change (%) over Decade -- 31.9% 17.7% 34.4% 32.0% 175.4% City of Bozeman 18,670 21,645 22,660 27,509 37,280 18,610 Net Change (%) over Decade -- 15.9% 4.7% 21.4% 35.5% 99.7% City of Belgrade 1,307 2,336 3,422 5,728 7,389 6,082 Net Change (%) over Decade -- 18.5% 8.5% 28.4% 31.4% 465.3% Town of Manhattan 816 988 1,034 1,396 1,520 704 Net Change (%) over Decade -- 18.5% 8.5% 28.4% 31.4% 86.3% City of Three Forks 1,188 1,247 1,203 1,728 1,869 681 Net Change (%) over Decade -- 18.5% 8.5% 28.4% 31.4% 57.3% Town of West Yellowstone 756 735 913 1,177 1,271 515 Net Change (%) over Decade -- 18.5% 8.5% 28.4% 31.4% 68.1% All Unincorporated Areas of County 9,768 15,914 21,231 30,293 40,184 30,416 Net Change (%) over Decade -- 62.9% 33.4% 42.7% 32.6% 311.4% State of Montana 694,409 786,690 799,065 902,195 989,415 295,006 Net Change (%) over Decade -- 13.4% 1.8% 12.9% 9.7% 42.5% United States 203,392,031 226,545,805 248,709,873 281,421,906 308,745,538 105,353,507 Net Change (%) over Decade -- 11.4% 9.8% 13.2% 9.7% 51.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of the Population Table 2 presents historical annual average percent changes in population for Gallatin County, the city of Bozeman, and other local geographies and compares them with the annual rates of change for the State of Montana and the nation over the same time periods. The BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 6 FINALtable shows that annual population growth rate for Gallatin County has typically been approximately three times higher than annual growth rates seen for the state and nation over the 1970-2010 period. Population growth seen in unincorporated area of the county between 1970 and 2010 averaged about 3.6% per year. Much of the growth seen in the county after 1990 can be attributed to in-migration. Similarly, the city of Bozeman’s population grew at rates significantly higher than those seen for the state and nation. The annual average percent change in population for the city of Bozeman was nearly approximately three times higher than the state’s annual average growth rate over the 1970-2010 period. It is notable that the city of Bozeman’s population grew at a slightly higher rate during the 2000-2010 period than Gallatin County as a whole and all unincorporated areas of the county. In 2010, about 42% of the county residents lived in the city of Bozeman. Table 2: Historic Annual Average Growth Rate in Population Area Last Four Decades (1970 - 2010) Last Two Decades (1990 - 2010) Last Decade (2000 - 2010) Gallatin County 2.56% 2.91% 2.81% City of Bozeman 1.74% 2.52% 3.09% All Incorporated Areas (includes City of Bozeman) 1.96% 2.65% 2.77% All Unincorporated Areas of County 3.60% 3.24% 2.87% State of Montana 0.89% 1.07% 0.93% United States 1.05% 1.09% 0.93% 2.2. POPULATION CHANGES SINCE 2010 The Census Bureau releases population estimates each year for various geographies to update information collected in the most recent census. Each new series of data incorporates the latest administrative record data, geographic boundaries, and methodology to provide annual revisions to the decennial census. Table 3 shows the U.S. Census Bureau estimates of current (as of July 1, 2014) population estimates for Gallatin County, the city of Bozeman, as well as the State of Montana, and the nation. These estimates show populations in the County and City are continuing to increase at rates comparable to those seen during the last decade. The rate of growth continues to outpace that seen for the state and nation. A substantial portion of the growth continues to be due to the migration of new residents into the county. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 7 FINALTable 3: Population Changes Since 2010 Area 2010 Population Estimate as of July 1, 2014 Total % Change 2010-2014 Annual Average % Change Gallatin County 89,513 97,308 8.71% 2.11% City of Bozeman 37,280 41,660 11.75% 2.82% State of Montana 989,415 1,023,579 3.45% 0.85% United States 308,745,538 318,857,056 3.27% 0.81% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Estimates Data, available at http://census.missouri.edu/acs/profiles/ 2.3. RACE AND ETHNICITY Table 4 presents the estimated race and ethnicity characteristics of Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman as indicated in the American Community Survey (ACS) Profile Report for the 2009-2013 period. Similar statistics are provided for the State of Montana and the U.S. for comparison purposes. The ACS data are period estimates meaning they represent the characteristics of the population and housing over a specific data collection period (5 years in this case). For this reason, the total populations shown differ from those recorded during the 2010 Census or Census Bureau estimates for years after 2010. The percentages listed for ethnic groups presented in the table may not match the Census total percentages and percentages may not add up to 100%. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 8 FINALTable 4: Population Race and Ethnicity Data (2009-2013) Race/Ethnicity Gallatin County City of Bozeman State of Montana United States White 95.3% 92.3% 89.4% 74.0% Black or African American 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 12.6% American Indian and Alaska Native 1.1% 1.8% 6.5% 0.8% Asian 0.9% 1.8% 0.6% 4.9% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Some Other Race 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 4.7% Two or More Races 2.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.8% Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 16.6% Total Population 91,499 38,204 998,554 311,536,608 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey (ACS) Profile Report: 2009-2013 (5-year estimates), available at http://census.missouri.edu/acs/profiles/ The populations of Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman are predominately white with percentages of minority populations generally similar to those seen for the State of Montana. The racial and ethnic composition of the geographic subdivisions examined are not nearly as diverse as that of the nation as a whole. 2.4. AGE DISTRIBUTION Table 5 depicts the changes in age distribution for residents of Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman and presents similar data for the State of Montana and the U.S. Three age categories—residents less than 18 years old, residents 18 to 64 years old, and residents over age 65—were considered in the analysis of age distribution. As shown earlier, the populations of Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman increased significantly between 1980 and 2010. The county’s population is younger than that of the state and nation. The data consistently shows Gallatin County and the city had a larger share of residents in the “less than 18 years old” category and fewer residents in the “65 years and over” category than either the state or nation. The age group from 18 to 64 generally represents the working-age population. Although numbers of residents in this broad age group has increased notably in both geographies, the share of residents in the 18-64 age group has changed relatively little over the 1980 to 2010 period. The share of Gallatin County and city of Bozeman residents in this age group has remained considerably above that seen for the state and nation over the same time period. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 9 FINALChanges in the structure of the population also impact another measure of population composition, median age. The median age is the age at the midpoint of the population. Half of the population is older than the median age and half of the population is younger. The median age of Gallatin County residents increased from 25.1 years to 32.5 years between 1980 and 2010. The median ages for residents of the city of Bozeman showed a slightly lower increase in median age over the period—from 23.3 years in 1980 to 27.2 years at the time of the 2010 Census. In both geographies, the median ages of county and city residents were consistently below that seen for the state and nation. Age group data from the 2000 Census and 2010 Census were reviewed to examine more specifically how age groups have changed in Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman. This review showed the following:  Changes in age distribution followed the same general patterns (increases/decreases) across all age groups.  Residents aged 20-34 comprised nearly 29% of the county’s population and almost 42% of the city’s population in 2010. The share of the population falling within this age group changed little between 2000 and 2010.  The number of residents aged 55 to 75 increased between 2000 and 2010.  Residents aged 45 to 64 accounted for about 24% of the county’s population and some 17% of the city’s population in 2010. This age group generally represents the “Baby Boom” generation and includes people born from mid-1946 to 1964. The Baby Boom is distinguished by a dramatic increase in birth rates following World War II and comprises one of the largest generations in U.S. history. The share of the county and city populations within this age group increased by 4% and 2%, respectively, during the 2000-2010 period. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 10 FINALTable 5: Age Distribution (1980 to 2010) Area 1980 1990 2000 2010 Gallatin County Median Age 25.1 29.8 30.7 32.5 % Less than 18 Years Old 23.8 24.3 22.0 20.9 % 18-64 Years Old 68.7 66.8 69.5 69.6 % 65 Years and Older 7.5 8.9 8.5 9.5 City of Bozeman Median Age 23.3 25.7 25.4 27.2 % Less than 18 Years Old 16.8 18.1 16.0 15.7 % 18-64 Years Old 75.2 72.8 76.0 76.2 % 65 Years and Older 8.0 9.1 8.0 8.1 State of Montana Median Age 29.0 33.8 37.5 39.8 % Less than 18 Years Old 29.4 27.8 25.5 22.6 % 18-64 Years Old 59.9 58.9 61.1 62.6 % 65 Years and Older 10.7 13.3 13.4 14.8 United States Median Age 30.0 32.9 35.3 37.2 % Less than 18 Years Old 28.2 25.6 25.7 24.0 % 18-64 Years Old 60.5 61.8 61.9 63.0 % 65 Years and Older 11.3 12.6 12.4 13.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of the Population 1980-2010 2.5. DISABILITY STATUS The 2009-2013 ACS 5-Year Estimate for Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman was consulted to obtain information about the number of residents with disabilities (which include hearing or vision difficulties, cognitive difficulties, and ambulatory difficulties). This information is important to review since segments of the population with disabilities may require special accommodations for transport or unique considerations in the design of transportation infrastructure. The ACS data showed that approximately 7-8% of the civilian non-institutionalized populations of the County and city of Bozeman were considered to have one or more disabilities. This data also indicated the following for disabled residents:  About 2-3% of residents of the County and city of Bozeman under the age of 18 had one or more disabilities; BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 11 FINAL About 5-6% of the residents between 18 and 64 years of age (the working-age population) living in Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman had one or more disabilities; and  Nearly one-third of residents 65 years and older in Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman had one or more disabilities. 2.6. PERSONAL TRAVEL AND COMMUTING CHARACTERISTICS According to the ACS profile for the 2009-2013 period, residents in about 96% of all occupied housing units in Gallatin County had access to one or more vehicles to commute to work or meet other personal needs. In the city of Bozeman, 93% of residents had access to at least one vehicle. In comparison, residents of nearly 95% of all occupied housing units in Montana and 91% of all occupied housing units in the nation had access to one or more vehicles. Information about the number of workers (16 years and older) and their commuting characteristics is also available from the ACS. The ACS information provided estimates of the total share of workers who commute or work at home, the transportation modes used by commuters, and the mean travel times to work for commuters. Table 6 presents commuting characteristics for workers in the various geographies of Gallatin County. Similar statistics for the State of Montana and the United States are provided for comparison. The table shows that 81% of commuting workers in Gallatin County rely on personal vehicles or carpools for transportation to work destinations. About 77% of commuting workers in the city of Bozeman drove alone or carpooled. Workers in Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman were more likely to walk to work as compared to all workers in the state and nation. The data also shows workers in the city used public transportation for commuting more than typically seen for all workers in Montana. The table suggests public transportation options are more limited for Montana residents as compared to elsewhere in the United States. Workers in Gallatin County and the city Bozeman also have notably shorter commute times than elsewhere in the state or nation. The ACS data showed workers in Belgrade, Manhattan, and Three Forks had commute times of 17.2 minutes, 23.6 minutes, and 17.6 minutes, respectively. Due to the relatively small sizes of these communities, these commute times suggest residents are working at jobs outside their communities. Many of these jobs likely exist in the Bozeman area. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 12 FINALTable 6: Mode of Transportation to Work (2009-2013) Subject City of Bozeman Gallatin County State of Montana United States Number of Workers 16 Years and Older 21,050 48,847 469,319 139,786,640 Commuted to Work 94.7% 92.5% 93.7% 95.6% Worked at Home 5.3% 7.5% 6.3% 4.3% Transportation Mode Drove alone, car, truck, van 69.5% 71.8% 75.4% 76.3% Carpooled 7.3% 9.2% 10.1% 9.8% Public Transportation (excluding taxicabs) 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 5.0% Walked to Work 9.8% 6.1% 4.9% 2.8% Other means of commuting 6.8% 4.5% 2.5% 1.8% Mean Travel Time to Work 13.6 min 16.8 min 18.0 min 25.5 min Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey (ACS) Profile Report: 2009-2013 (5-year estimates), available at http://census.missouri.edu/acs/profiles/ 2.7. MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY STUDENT POPULATION Montana State University-Bozeman (MSU) attracts a large number of full-time and part-time students to the city of Bozeman each year. Enrollment at MSU has increased steadily since 1991 and the university has seen record enrollment nine times over the past 10 years. Figure 2 shows the trend in enrollment at MSU since 1980. As of fall semester 2015, MSU’s enrollment was 15,688 including 12,196 (78%) full-time students and 3,492 (22%) part-time students. The Montana State University Strategic Plan 2012 (available at http://www.montana.edu/strategicplan/documents/montanastate-strategic-plan.pdf) clearly indicates it is a goal of the university to continue growing the student enrollment. The 2012 strategic plan identified a goal of increasing the total student population to 16,000 by the year 2019. It is clear from the recent enrollment numbers that the university is poised to exceed this target population well ahead of that time. The annual influx of students to MSU means the city of Bozeman and surrounding areas must accommodate this population. Housing opportunities for students are available both on campus and off campus within the greater Bozeman area. With the addition of a new dormitory in 2016, MSU will be capable of housing more than 3,700 students in the residence halls at the university. MSU also offers family and graduate housing in nearly 600 apartments located within walking distance of the campus. Approximately 70 percent of the on-campus population is comprised of freshmen undergraduate students. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 13 FINALFigure 2: Fall Enrollment at Montana State University (1980-2015) 3.0. HOUSING UNITS AND HOUSEHOLDS The Census Bureau identifies a housing unit as a house, an apartment, a mobile home, a group of rooms, or a single room that is occupied (or if vacant, is intended for occupancy) as separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those in which the occupants live and eat separately from any other persons in the building and which have direct access from outside of the building or through a common hall. The occupants may be a single family, one person living alone, two or more families living together, or any other group of related or unrelated persons who share living arrangements. A household includes all the persons who occupy a housing unit according to the Census Bureau definition. For purposes of allocating future residential growth, housing units are of interest since they are inputs to the travel demand model (TDM). 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,0001980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015EnrollmentYearEnrollment at MSU has increased steadily since 1991 and the university has seen record enrollment nine times over the past 10 years. As of fall semester 2015, MSU’s enrollment was 15,688. Over the 2005-2015 period MSU’s enrollment has grown by 3,438 students. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 14 FINAL3.1. NUMBER OF HOUSING UNITS Table 7 lists the number of housing units that existed within Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman during recent decennial censuses. Overall, the number of housing units in the County increased by nearly 146% during the 1980-2010 period with significant increases in the number of housing units recorded during each of the last two decades in the County. This trend is similar for the city of Bozeman which showed a 119% increase in housing units between 1980 and 2010 and a 239% increase in the number of housing units between 2000 and 2010. Table 7: Number of Housing Units (1980-2010) Area 1980 1990 2000 2010 Gallatin County Population 42,865 50,463 67,831 89,513 Housing Units 17,173 21,350 29,489 42,289 Net Change -- 4,177 8,139 12,800 Population per Housing Unit 2.50 2.36 2.30 2.12 City of Bozeman Population 21,645 22,660 27,509 37,280 Housing Units 7,971 9,117 11,577 17,464 Net Change -- 1,146 2,460 5,887 Population per Housing Unit 2.72 2.49 2.38 2.13 Unincorporated Areas of the County Population 15,914 21,231 30,293 40,184 Housing Units 6,949 9,298 13,559 18,826 Net Change -- 2,349 4,261 5,267 Population per Housing Unit 2.29 2.28 2.23 2.13 Source: US Bureau of the Census, Census of the Population Several interesting findings are apparent from the housing unit data presented in Table 7:  25,116 housing units were added within Gallatin County between 1980 and 2010, with 47% of all the housing units being added in unincorporated areas of the county and 38% of all the housing units added within the city of Bozeman. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 15 FINAL 9,493 housing units were added within the city of Bozeman over the 1980-2010 period.  8,347 housing units were added within the city of Bozeman over the 1990-2010 period with more than 70% of these units (5,887) being added between 2000 and 2010.  In total, there were 12,800 more housing units in the County in 2010 than there were in 2000, with 46% of these housing units being added within the city of Bozeman.  Of the new housing units added between 2000 and 2010 in the County, 41% were added within unincorporated areas and 59% were added within incorporated cities and towns.  In 2010, 44.5% of the County’s housing units were located in unincorporated areas and 41% of the housing units were located within the city of Bozeman. Historic census data for Gallatin County areas showed notable increases in the number of housing units in other incorporated communities within the Gallatin Valley. Between 1990 and 2010, nearly 1,900 new housing units were added to the city of Belgrade with 935 new housing units being added during the 2000-2010 period. The town of Manhattan recorded an increase of 589 housing units over the 1990-2010 period with 72% of these housing units (424 units) being added between 2000 and 2010. The number of new housing units in the city of Three Forks did not increase as dramatically as in Belgrade or Manhattan. However, more than 300 new housing units were added in Three Forks over the 1990-2010 period. These communities, particularly Belgrade and Manhattan, are within easy commuting distance of Bozeman and likely offer housing costs lower than those generally available in Bozeman. 3.2. POPULATION PER HOUSING UNIT The data in Table 7 shows that the population per housing unit decreased for all geographies considered over the 1980-2010 period. The population per housing unit in Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman were almost the same at 2.12 and 2.13 persons per housing unit, respectively, at the time of the 2010 Census. For comparison, the population per housing unit for the State of Montana was 2.04 according to the 2010 Census. Because not all housing units are occupied, it is interesting to consider the number of residents per occupied housing unit. At the time of the 2010 Census, more than 86% of the housing units in Gallatin County were occupied and over 90% of those in the city of Bozeman were occupied. If only occupied housing units are considered, the resulting population per housing unit rates are 2.45 people per unit in the County and 2.36 people per unit in the city of Bozeman. The population per occupied housing unit for the State of Montana was 2.41 based on data in the 2010 Census. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 16 FINAL4.0. EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME TRENDS Gallatin County is Montana’s fourth most populous county, while the city of Bozeman, the county seat, is the state’s fourth largest city. As discussed earlier in this memorandum, the city of Bozeman is one of Montana’s fastest growing cities and recorded a population increase of more than 35% between 2000 and 2010. The economy of Gallatin County is fairly diverse with construction, government, manufacturing, technology, retail trade, services, and agriculture all playing notable roles. Bozeman’s transition into a regional trade and service center provide a solid basis for continued economic growth. Montana State University comprises the largest component of Gallatin County’s economic base. Montana State University and the associated Gallatin College are located in Bozeman and have combined annual enrollments approaching 16,000 students. 4.1. HISTORIC EMPLOYMENT IN GALLATIN COUNTY Employment by industry for Gallatin County for milestone years between 1980 and 2013 is represented in Table 8. The most recent available data shows that total full and part-time employment in the county was 70,269 in 2013 with more than 98% of the jobs being non-farm related employment. Total full and part-time employment in Gallatin County in 2013 was 223% higher than that recorded in 1980. This means total employment in the county increased 3.2 times since 1980. Over this 33-year period, the average annual increase in employment in Gallatin County was about 6.8% per year. The data in Table 8 shows that between 1980 and 2013, all industry sectors in the county gained jobs with the most notable net increase in employment occurring in the services industry where the total number of jobs increased by 25,300 over the period. Other industry sectors showing sizable increases in employment since 1980 include: construction (net gain of 5,166 jobs); finance, insurance and real estate (net gain of 4,752 jobs); retail trade (net gain of 4,371 jobs) and state and local government (net gain of 3,408 jobs). The industries showing the lowest gains in employment between 1980 and 2013 were federal and civilian government, the military, agriculture and forestry, mining, and transportation. The Bozeman area economy experienced a significant contraction early in the 2008 recession. However, the economy began to turn around in 2010 and has continued upward ever since. According to the 2015 Economic Outllook (by Paul Polzin, Bureau of Business and Economic Research) only Gallatin County and Yellowstone County significantly exceeded the statewide growth rates during the recovery phase of this business cycle. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 17 FINALTable 8: Employment Trends for Gallatin County (1980–2013) Employment 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 Net Change (1980 - 2013) % Change (1980 - 2013) Total Full and Part-time Employment 21,731 31,744 51,116 63,768 70,269 48,538 223.4% Farm Employment 1,075 1,128 1,377 1,116 1,134 59 0.2% Non-Farm Employment 20,656 30,616 49,739 62,652 69,135 48,479 234.7% Employment by Industry Agricultural Services & Forestry 180 363 826 537 625 445 247.2% Mining 106 175 171 391 610 504 475.5% Construction 1,222 1,782 4,748 5,626 6,388 5,166 422.7% Manufacturing 1,325 2,021 3,120 2,624 3,189 1,864 140.7% Transportation & Public Utilities 772 1,025 1,511 1,332 1,701 929 120.3 Wholesale Trade 511 1,094 1,678 1,675 1,901 1,350 245.0% Retail Trade 4,311 6,263 10,618 8,117 8,682 4,371 101.4% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 1,633 2,316 3,512 6,049 6,385 4,752 291.0% Services 4,461 8,408 15,048 26,450 29,769 25,308 567.3% Federal & Civilian Government 567 610 580 670 620 53 9.3% Military 279 404 374 447 468 189 67.7% State & Local Government 5,249 6,155 7,553 8,734 8,657 3,408 64.9% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis – Table CA25 and Table CA25N. 4.2. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY INDUSTRY Table 9 presents data on the estimated number of civilian employees (age 16 years and older) and the industries in which they are employed in the State of Montana, Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman. The data in the table, taken from 2009-2013 ACS profile for these geographies, also includes employment estimates by industry. As the table shows, the employed population in Gallatin County for the period is estimated at 50,021 with about 43% of the employed persons in the county being residents of the city of Bozeman. The employment by industry data from the 2009-2013 ACS for the various geographies of Gallatin County generally supports the information presented earlier in Table 8. The majority of the employment in the County and city of Bozeman is associated with education BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 18 FINALand the service industries, retail trade, and professional, management and administrative occupations. The employment data in Table 9 suggests that more about one-third of the County’s employment occurs in the city of Bozeman. Table 9: Civilian Employment by Industry (2009-2013) Industry State of Montana Gallatin County City of Bozeman Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and mining 34,395 7.2% 2,092 4.2% 499 2.3% Construction 37,617 7.9% 4,195 8.4% 1,247 5.8% Manufacturing 22,278 4.7% 2,997 6.0% 1,369 6.3% Wholesale Trade 11,647 2.4% 1,153 2.3% 484 2.2% Retail Trade 57,294 12.0% 6,529 13.1% 2,951 13.6% Transportation, warehousing, and public utilities 23,539 4.9% 1,508 3.0% 485 2.2% Information 8,771 1.8% 721 1.4% 293 1.4% Finance and Insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 26,771 5.6% 2,682 5.4% 1,132 5.2% Professional, scientific, management and administrative 39,604 8.3% 6,049 12.1% 2,613 12.1% Education services, health care, and social assistance 108,670 22.8% 11,379 22.7% 5,544 25.6% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation, and food services 54,179 11.4% 6,827 13.6% 3,385 15.6% Other services, except public administration 21,844 4.6% 2,038 4.1% 895 4.1% Public administration 30,406 6.4% 1,851 3.7% 750 3.5% Total Employed Population 16 year of age and older 477,015 50,021 21,647 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey (ACS) Profile Report: 2009-2013 (5-year estimates), available at http://census.missouri.edu/acs/profiles/ It is worth noting the difference in the total employed population for Gallatin County presented in Table 9 and the full and part-time employment total presented for the county in Table 8. The data in Table 8 shows employment by industry in the county and does not consider where employees reside. Table 9 provides estimates of the employment by industry for residents of Gallatin County. With that in mind, the employment data suggests there are a substantial number of jobs being filled by persons living outside Gallatin County. Information obtained from Headwaters Economics Inc. Economic Profile System (EPS) in 2015 verifies that workers from neighboring counties are coming to Gallatin County for work. The Profile of Socioeconomic Measures report produced by the EPS shows that from 1990 to 2013, the outflow of earnings grew by 224% and the net residential adjustment (inflow less outflow) changed from 0.0% to -0.6% of BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 19 FINALpersonal income. These measures describe the flow of earnings into the county by residents who work in neighboring counties ("inflow" of earnings because they bring money home); the flow of earnings by residents from neighboring counties who commute into the county for work ("outflow") of earnings because they take their earnings with them); and the difference between the two ("net residential adjustment"). If net residential adjustment is positive (inflow exceeds outflow), it means county residents commute outside the county for work and bring in more personal income than leaves the county in net terms. If net residential adjustment is negative (outflow exceeds inflow), it means the economy of the county attracts workers from nearby counties and loses more personal income than it brings into the county in net terms. Montana State University is the largest employer in Gallatin County. As of fall 2014, MSU employed 3,092 permanent faculty and staff, and 649 graduate teaching and research assistants. Of the 3,092 permanent employees, 2,321 were classified as full time and 771 were part time employees. Classified, professional, and service staff at MSU numbered nearly 1,900 in 2014. The Bozeman Public School District, Gallatin County, and City of Bozeman are also large public employers in the county. The most recent Montana County Flier publication for Gallatin County (February 2012) prepared by the Montana Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis Bureau identifies large private employers in the County including:  Bozeman Deaconess Hospital (1,000+ employees);  Right Now Technologies (500-999 employees);  Walmart (250-499 employees); and  17 other businesses with 100 to 249 employees. 4.3. CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS Unemployment rates are represented in Table 10 and are current as of August 2015. The data shows unemployment rates for Gallatin County and Bozeman lower than comparable rates for the State of Montana (3.7%) and for the United States (5.2%). BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 20 FINALTable 10: Employment Statistics (August 2015) Area Total Labor Force Employed Unemployed Unemployment Rate Gallatin County 59,639 57,943 1,696 2.8% City of Bozeman 26,873 26,234 639 2.4% State of Montana 531,246 511,514 19,732 3.7% United States 157,390,000 149,228,000 8,162,000 5.2% Source: MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis Bureau – Labor Force Statistics, August 2015 (data is not seasonally adjusted) available at https://data.datamontana.us/Employment/Labor-Force-by-Area/2t9m-tkyy. Please note these Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) are variable and represent monthly and annual labor force estimates and unemployment rate statistics. 4.4. INCOME LEVELS Estimates of median household income and per capita income for Gallatin County, the city of Bozeman, and other geographies are available in the 2009-2013 ACS profile and shown in Table 11. The ACS shows estimated median household incomes for Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman as $52,833 and $44,615, respectively. The median household income level of county residents was higher than that of the state as a whole but slightly below that of the nation. The median household income of city of Bozeman residents was below that of the county, state, and nation. In general, households within Gallatin County earned about 14% more than what is earned by an average Montana household during the period. Per capita income levels in Gallatin County were similar of those of the nation but notably higher than those for Montana as a whole. The per capita income of city residents was estimated to be higher than for state residents as a whole but below the per capita income level seen for all county residents and the nation as a whole. Estimates of per capita personal income for 2013 are available from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the nation, states, and counties. Personal income is the income received by all persons from all sources. Per capita personal income is calculated as the total personal income of the residents of an area divided by the population of the area. BEA data for 2013 shows the estimated per capita personal income for residents of Gallatin County is slightly above that for all residents of the State of Montana but is about 10% below that estimated for the nation as a whole. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 21 FINALTable 11: Income Levels (2009-2013) Area Median Household Income Per Capita Income 2013 Per Capita Personal Income Gallatin County $52,833 $28,939 $40,670 City of Bozeman $44,615 $26,335 No Data State of Montana $46,230 $25,373 $39,366 United States $53,046 $28,155 $44,765 Sources: US Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey (ACS) Profile Report: 2009-2013 (5-year estimates), available at http://census.missouri.edu/acs/profiles/ U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) News Release – Local Area Personal Income (November 20, 2014) available at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/lapi/2014/pdf/lapi1114.pdf 4.5. POVERTY STATUS Table 12 presents poverty statistics for various geographies in Gallatin County and comparable statistics for the State of Montana and the nation. According to the 2009-2013 ACS profile, the number of county residents living below the poverty line was below that seen for the State (14.8%) and nation (14.9%). However, the ACS estimates show the number of city of Bozeman residents living in poverty was higher than the county as a whole, and the state and nation. The county (including the city of Bozeman) had fewer residents under the age of 18 years and over the age of 65 living in poverty than seen for the state and nation. Table 12: Poverty Status (2009-2013) Area Persons Living in Poverty (%) Persons Under 18 in Poverty (%) Persons over 65 in Poverty (%) Gallatin County 14.1 12.5 5.4 City of Bozeman 21.2 13.5 7.5 State of Montana 15.2 20.1 8.4 United States 14.9 20.8 9.4 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey (ACS) Profile Report: 2009-2013 (5-year estimates), available at http://census.missouri.edu/acs/profiles/ BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 22 FINAL5.0. EXISTING LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT 5.1. EXISTING LAND USE Land use plays a critical role in shaping transportation networks. Land use decisions affect the transportation system and can increase viable options for people to access work and recreation sites, goods, services, and other resources in the community. In turn, the existing and future transportation system may be impacted by the location, type, and design of land use developments through changes in travel demands, travel mode choices, and travel patterns. 5.1.1. Historic Development Patterns and Current Land Uses Bozeman’s developed land use pattern has evolved steadily from the time of first settlement. The historic development of the city of Bozeman was centered on the commercial core of Main Street and later included the industrial core established around the railroad yard. The city developed around a street and block pattern that served residents by providing for most basic needs within relatively close proximity to residential areas. This pattern flourished for many years and maintained a thriving central core area within the city. The development pattern changed as automobiles became commonplace and allowed people to move greater distances over a shorter period. The newfound mobility served to create commercial corridors as business owners relocated to or expanded on parcels of less expensive land on the edges of town. The development of I-90 along the north edge of the city reinforced the commercial corridor pattern seen in the community. Commercial development, with concentrations of motels/hotels and other services, was spurred in areas along East Main Street and North 7th Avenue (and later North 19th Avenue) where interchanges were constructed along I-90. The periods of rapid residential growth seen in the Bozeman area from 1980 forward resulted in significant new residential areas on former agricultural lands that surrounded the city. This growth has manifested itself through numerous large residential developments, primarily on lands adjoining the north, west, and southwest portions of the city and through infill developments in other areas of the city. Residential and commercial development on lands near Montana State University has also been notable in recent years. Today, the city is seeing substantial redevelopment and enhancements within its historic downtown core area and East Main Street. This activity has contributed to making downtown Bozeman a very vibrant area. Rapid expansion of commercial uses has also continued along North 19th Avenue and portions of West Main Street. Most other major streets in the city also have some level of commercial development. Figure 3 depicts current land uses for the community as compiled by the city of Bozeman GIS Department. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 23 FINAL Source: City of Bozeman GIS Department, accessed February 15, 2016, http://gisweb.bozeman.net/Html5Viewer/?viewer=maps Figure 3: Existing Land Use in the City of Bozeman (2015) BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 24 FINAL5.1.2. Recent Annexations The city of Bozeman has increased in size over the years due to annexations. Annexations are typically done to accommodate new developments and/or extend municipal services. Figures 4 and 5 show annexations from 1996 through 2014. The light blue area in the map shows the municipal boundaries as of 1996 and the colored areas represent annexed lands for subsequent years with orange to red colors representing the most recent annexations. In 1996, the City encompassed about 7,100 acres, Between 1999 and 2007, the city annexed nearly 4,150 acres. As of the end of 2014, the municipal boundaries of Bozeman covered about 12,800 acres. It is apparent from the map that most lands annexed since 1996 were on the north and west perimeters of the city. Source: City of Bozeman GIS Department (2015), http://www.bozeman.net/Smarty/media/GIS_Media/maps/Annexation_Map.pdf Figure 4: City of Bozeman Annexations (1996-2014) BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 25 FINAL Source: City of Bozeman GIS Department (2015), http://www.bozeman.net/Smarty/media/GIS_Media/maps/Annexation_Map.pdf Figure 5: City of Bozeman Acreage BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 26 FINAL5.1.3. Current Development Projects The city of Bozeman’s GIS Department has created an interactive map showing development projects currently underway within the Bozeman area. Figure 6 shows a map of active planning projects in the area. These projects cover the 2006 through 2015 period and include a wide variety of planning actions ranging from zoning variances and conditional use permits for individual properties to small commercial projects and pending subdivisions or annexations. The figure is presented to provide some indication of the location of recent and ongoing development activities. It is apparent that these activities are occurring throughout the community. Source: City of Bozeman GIS Department, accessed February 15, 2016, http://gis.bozeman.net/flexviewers/planning/ Figure 6: Current Development Projects BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 27 FINAL5.2. FUTURE LAND USE Figure 7 presents a future land use map for the Bozeman area taken from the Bozeman Community Plan adopted in 2009. In general, the future land use plan for the city seeks to move away from the auto-oriented development pattern of the past, increased the urban density by implementing more mixed use developments that combine uses on one site or within one building and more efficiently use land. Center-based commercial development is viewed as desirable. The city also seeks to create more options in housing choice, location, and cost. Source: Bozeman Community Plan (2009), accessed February 15, 2016, http://www.bozeman.net/Smarty/files/e6/e6a049b8-fad5-4886-b7f5-3ebfbd2f4556.pdf Figure 7: Future Land Use Map for the Bozeman Area BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 28 FINAL6.0. FUTURE PROJECTIONS 6.1. POPULATION AND HOUSING PROJECTIONS Projections are estimates of the population for future dates. They illustrate reasonable estimates of future population based on assumptions about current or expected demographic trends. Population projections (along with forecasts of the number of future housing units or households and employment conditions) are used to help predict future travel patterns and assess the performance of the transportation system. 6.1.1. Gallatin County Several sources of population projections for Gallatin County were examined to help understand potential growth within the County. These sources consisted of both published community planning documents and recognized sources for demographic projections. These projections are briefly discussed in the following paragraphs and summarized in Table 13.  Gallatin County Growth Policy (2003)  Greater Bozeman Area Transportation Plan (2007 Update)  Bozeman Community Plan (2009)  Regional Economic Models, Inc.  Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. The Gallatin County Growth Policy projected the County’s population through the year 2030. The Growth Policy showed an estimated population of 82,000 for the year 2010 and projected the county’s population to be 116,000 by the year 2030. The Growth Policy did not project populations beyond 2030. The Greater Bozeman Area Transportation Plan (2007 Update) included projections of the County’s population through the year 2030 based on Low, Moderate, and High growth scenarios. The Low Growth scenario reflected fairly flat population trends experienced during the 1980s. The Moderate Growth scenario reflected Woods & Poole projections for Gallatin County available at the time. The High Growth scenario was established to reflect population growth trends seen between 1990 and 2005. The Transportation Plan update projected the following 2030 populations for Gallatin County—117,824 residents (Low Growth), 135,986 residents (Moderate Growth), and 163,863 residents (High Growth). The Moderate Growth scenario was identified as the most likely to occur and its associated population and employment projections were used as the basis for transportation modeling. Appendix B of the Bozeman Community Plan approved in 2009 includes a section devoted to population projections for both Gallatin County and the city of Bozeman. The sources of the projections were identified as the city of Bozeman’s 2007 Wastewater Facility Plan and BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 29 FINALprojections made by NPA Data Services Inc, in 2006. The Bozeman Community Plan presents population projections for each 5-year period from 2010 to 2025. Gallatin County’s population was estimated at 88,300 for 2010 with steady increases to a year 2025 population of 116,450. It should be noted that the Montana Department of Commerce Census & Economic Information Center (CEIC) contracted with NPA Data Services to provide population projections for all Montana counties during the time the Bozeman Community Plan was developed. Population data from the 2010 Census was not available at the time the planning document was produced. In April 2013, the CEIC released projections developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (eREMI) which provided complete annual demographic forecasts through the year 2060 for the State of Montana and each county. The eREMI model projects Gallatin County’s population to be 122,432 by the year 2040. This projection suggests the county’s population would be about 37% higher than the population at the time of the 2010 Census. The projection represents a 30-year increase of 32,919 people over the 2010 Census population and an average annual increase in population of 1.05 percent for the period. Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. (W&P) produces long-term economic and demographic projections for every county in the U.S. The W&P database for Gallatin County includes population projections through 2050 and projects the county’s population to be 176,191 by 2040. This projection suggests the county’s population would be about 97% higher than it was at the time of the 2010 Census. The projection represents a 30-year increase of 86,678 people over the 2010 Census population and an average annual increase in population of 2.28 percent over the 30 year period. Table 13: Population Projections for Gallatin County Estimate or Projection Source 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 AAGR U.S. Census Bureau/CEIC Estimate 89,513 97,308 -- -- -- -- -- 167,438* 2.11% Gallatin County Growth Policy 82,000 -- -- -- -- 116,000 137,969* 1.75% Greater Bozeman Area Transportation Plan Low Growth Projection 84,935 -- 92,177 100,037 108,567 117,824 -- 138,774* 1.65% Moderate Growth Projection 87,406 -- 97,618 109,023 121,760 135,986 -- 169,618* 2.23% High Growth Projection 90,727 -- 105,187 121,930 141,350 163,863 -- 220,218* 3.00% Bozeman Community Plan 88,300 -- 97,780 107,100 116,450 -- -- 153,574* 1.86% eREMI Model 89,616 95,470 97,197 105,568 112,302 116,627 119,368 122,432 1.05% Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. 89,587 96,989 99,352 112,214 126,452 142,028 158,662 176,191 2.28% * Estimated using average annual growth rate (AAGR). BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 30 FINALFor the purposes of the Bozeman TMP, the W&P projections were selected as the preferred set of population projections for Gallatin County. With a projected year 2040 population of more than 176,000, these projections reflect sustained and significant growth in Gallatin County and are generally in line with the “Moderate Growth Projection” presented in the Greater Bozeman Area Transportation Plan (2007 Update). 6.1.2. City of Bozeman Population projections for the city of Bozeman are not available from eREMI or W&P, so the principal sources of projections for the city’s population are other published community planning documents including:  Bozeman Wastewater Collection Facilities Plan Update (2015)  Bozeman Integrated Water Resource Plan (2013)  Bozeman Community Plan (2009)  Fire Protection Master Plan (2006)  Bozeman Water Facility Plan (2005)  Bozeman 20/20 Community Plan (2001) Population projections from these sources are shown in Table 14. Please note the projections made in the Greater Bozeman Area Transportation Plan (2007 Update) were for Gallatin County only and does not include projections specific to the city of Bozeman. It is apparent from a review of Table 14 that substantial variation exists between the population projections for the city. This is due in part to the fact that several of the planning documents were produced before 2010 Census data became available that firmly established populations for all geographies of the county. Planning studies prior to the 2010 Census data had to rely on older Census data or other information to help estimate population growth trends. Several planning documents also presented projections based on a range of growth rates to help frame the magnitude of future growth. More recent planning studies containing population projections for the city have the advantage of additional information from the 2010 Census information and current estimates of population from the CEIC to establish growth trends and project future populations. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 31 FINALTable 14: Population Projections for the City of Bozeman * Estimated using average annual growth rate (AAGR). ** Estimated using 2010 Census and Woods & Pool Economics, Inc. AAGR calculate for Gallatin County. While the W&P projections are not available specifically for the city of Bozeman, the 2.28% AAGR calculated for Gallatin County was applied to city of Bozeman population for reference purposes. This method results in a projected city of Bozeman population of approximately 73,000 for the year 2040. 6.1.3. Bozeman TMP Study Area The share of the population living within the TMP study area was estimated using Census population data. GIS analysis was used to identify the total population within all census blocks entirely within or crossed by the study area boundary. This analysis established the study area population to be 49,814 in 2010 and 56,924 in 2014. The population of the TMP study area accounted for about 56 percent of the County’s total population in 2010 and 57 percent in 2014. Estimate or Projection Source 2010 2014 2015 2020 2024 2025 2030 2034 2035 2040 AAGR U.S. Census Bureau/CEIC Estimate 37,280 41,660 -- -- -- -- -- -- 85,763* 2.82% Bozeman Community Plan 42,700 -- 54,500 69,500 -- 88,700 -- -- -- 184,255* 4.99% Bozeman Integrated Water Resource Plan Moderate Projection (2% annual growth) -- -- 41,160 45,444 -- 50,174 55,396 -- 61,161 67,527 2.00% High Projection(3% annual growth) -- -- 42,383 49,133 -- 56,959 66,031 -- 76,548 88,740 3.00% Bozeman Wastewater Collection Facilities Plan Update -- 41,056 -- -- 55,176 -- -- 63,964 -- 73,064* 2.24% Bozeman Water Facility Plan 42,700 -- 54,500 69,500 -- 88,700 -- -- -- 184,255* 4.99% Bozeman Fire Protection Master Plan Census Based Projection -- 34,029 -- -- 37,747 -- -- -- -- 44,559* 1.04% Development Based Projection -- 42,400 -- -- 49,400 -- -- -- -- 63,082* 1.54% Wastewater Facilities Plan/Bozeman Community Plan (2008) 44,500 -- 56,800 72,500 -- 92,500 -- -- -- 192,275* 5.00% Bozeman 20/20 Community Plan, 2001 39,600 -- 43,120 46,600 -- -- -- -- -- 64,531* 1.64% Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.** 37,280 40,798 41,728 46,708 51,116 52,281 58,520 64,042 65,503 73,319 2.28% BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 32 FINALFor future projections, the percentage of population within the TMP study area in the year 2014 was held constant through the year 2040. Table 15 shows, the projected population of the TMP study area through the year 2040. The table shows the population of the TMP study area is projected to be more than 100,000 residents by 2040, which account for approximately 57% of the county’s projected population. The number of housing units is a key component in the traffic model. Housing units distribute people throughout the network to given locations. They represent the population and act as a hub for traffic within the network. Having a realistic value for number of people per housing unit helps distribute the traffic more accurately. However, it is often quite difficult to precisely represent the population through housing units. This is in part because the number of people per housing units varies based on location and can change at any time. According to the 2014 baseline conditions, Gallatin County had 99,586 residents distributed among 47,048 housing units. Within the study area, the baseline conditions show a population of 56,924 distributed among 26,035 housing units. The number of occupants per housing unit under baseline conditions is 2.12 and 2.19, respectively, for Gallatin County and the study area. The number of housing units within Gallatin County and the TMP study area by the year 2040 was determined by dividing the total populations for these geographies by the occupancy. Applying this occupancy rate to the projected 2040 population for Gallatin County results in 83,239 housing units; an increase of 36,191 from the year 2014. For the TMP study area, an increase of 20,027 housing units is projected for the year 2040. Table 15 shows population and housing unit projections for Gallatin County and the TMP study area for the year 2040. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 33 FINALTable 15: Population and Housing Unit Projections Area 2010 (Census) 2014 (Baseline) 2040 (Projection) Net Change (2014-2040) Gallatin County Population 89,513 99,586 176,191 76,605 Housing Units 42,289 47,048 83,239 36,191 Population per Housing Unit 2.12 TMP Study Area Population 49,814 56,924 100,712 43,788 Housing Units 22,783 26,035 46,062 20,027 Population per Housing Unit 2.19 Outside Study Area Population 39,699 42,662 75,479 32,817 Housing Units 19,506 21,013 37,177 16,164 Population per Housing Unit 2.03 6.2. EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Employment numbers are used in the traffic model to help distribute vehicle traffic as accurately as possible within the street and road network. Places with high levels of employment will tend to generate high levels of vehicle traffic. The traffic generated is based in part on the employment type: retail, service, or basic. 6.2.1. Gallatin County Table 16 presents full and part-time employment data for Gallatin County over the 2010 to 2040 period. In 2010, the total employment for Gallatin County was estimated to be 63,768 with farm and nonfarm employment totaling 1,116 and 62,652, respectively. Future employment projections for Gallatin County to the year 2050 are available from Wood’s and Poole Economics, Inc. The W&P projections show that total nonfarm employment in the county may reach 127,937 by 2040—56,868 more jobs than seen in 2014. This represents a total overall increase of approximately 80 percent in nonfarm employment over the 2014-2040 period and an average increase in employment of just under 2.3 percent per year. The W&P employment projections clearly suggest Gallatin County will continue to see steady and significant job growth in the future. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 34 FINALTable 16: Employment Projections to 2040 for Gallatin County Employment Projection 2010 2014 2015 2020 2030 2040 Net Change (2014-2040) AAGR (2014-2040) Total Full and Part-time Employment 63,768 72,210 74,182 8,411 105,604 129,184 56,974 2.26% Farm Employment 1,116 1,141 1,148 1,180 1,225 1,247 106 0.34% Nonfarm Employment 62,652 71,069 73,034 82,931 104,379 127,937 56,868 2.29% NOTES: 1. Employment data for 2010 was obtained from US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis – Table CA25 and Table CA25N. 2. Employment data for years 2015 through 2014 were obtained from the Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. dataset for Gallatin County. Montana. 6.2.2. Bozeman TMP Study Area The total employment within the TMP study area was extracted from the MDT traffic model. Similar to the process followed to establish baseline population data, GIS analysis was used to identify the total employment within all census blocks entirely within or crossed by the study area boundary. This analysis of the model established the total employment for the study area to be 38,387 in 2014. This means that 62.83% of employment in Gallatin County occurred within the TMP study area. Table 17 presents employment projections for the year 2040. Future employment was projected using the AAGR established by W&P data discussed in the previous section (2.29%). Applying this growth rate to the 2014 baseline employment numbers from the model resulted in 30,288 new jobs within the TMP study area. Outside of the study area, 17,970 new jobs are projected for the purposes of the model. The percent distribution of retail, service, and basic job classifications was held constant for year 2040 projections. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 35 FINALTable 17: Employment Projections to 2040 for the TMP Study Area Area 2010 2014 (Baseline) 2040 (Projection)* Net Change (2014 - 2040) Gallatin County Retail 22,810 33,671 60,238 26,567 Service 12,825 13,645 24,411 10,766 Basic 12,915 13,847 24,772 10,925 Total 48,550 61,163 109,421 48,258 TMP Study Area Retail 15,004 21,720 38,857 17,137 Service 9,196 10,050 17,979 7,929 Basic 6,067 6,617 11,838 5,221 Total 30,267 38,387 68,675 30,288 Outside Study Area Retail 7,806 11,951 21,380 9,429 Service 3,629 3,595 6,431 2,836 Basic 6,848 7,230 12,935 5,705 Total 18,283 22,776 40,746 17,970 * 2040 projections were based on a 2.29% per year AAGR as calculated based on Woods & Poole projections. 6.3. ALLOCATION OF FUTURE GROWTH Modeling of future travel patterns out to the year 2040 planning horizon using MDT’s traffic model required identification of future socioeconomic characteristics within each census tract and census block. County population and employment projections were translated into predictions of increases in housing and employment within Gallatin County and the TMP study area. To accomplish this task, an initial allocation of future housing and employment growth within the study area was made based on a review of existing land use and zoning maps for Bozeman and surrounding county area, draft versions of city and county growth policy updates, and other community planning documents. These planning documents helped identify where residential, commercial and industrial development has occurred in the Bozeman area and provided information about where future residential and commercial growth is BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 36 FINALexpected in the community. The initial allocation of future housing units and employment attempted to reflect known patterns of growth and potential new growth areas within the study area. After the initial assignment of housing and employment through the year 2040 was made, a land use workshop was held with various city and county staff on January 20, 2016 to discuss and reach consensus on the distribution of future housing and employment growth within the study area. This enabled local staff to consider and revise the growth assignments as needed based on their knowledge of recent land use trends, land availability and development limitations, land use regulations, planned public improvements, and known development proposals. Figure 8 shows areas where future housing units are expected to be developed by the year 2040. As discussed previously, 20,027 new housing units were allocated within the study area. An additional 16,164 units were distributed outside of the study area and within the County based on a growth rate applied to select census blocks. Similarly, Figure 9 shows where the projected increases in jobs is anticipated through the year 2040. Within the study area, 30,288 new jobs were allocated. An additional 17,970 new jobs were distributed outside of the study area and within the County by applying a growth rate to select census blocks. Note that for purposes of the traffic model Montana State University is considered to be a special generator, and as such does not necessitate development of conventional housing or job allocations. An average annual growth rate of 1.5% per year was applied to the MSU student population to accommodate projected increases. This AAGR is based on the last 26 years of student growth at MSU. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 37 FINAL Figure 8: New Housing Allocation (2014 – 2040) 9090191848586411345205345235191191HIGHLAND BLVDS 3RD AVEWILLSON AVEGRIFFIN DRKAGY BLVDDURSTON RDOAK STCOLLEGE STBOZEMAN TRAIL RDBAXTERLNBABCOCK STE VALLEY CENTER RDPEACH STMENDENHALL STS CHURCH AVE S 19TH AVESPRINGHILL RDS11THAVECOTTONWOOD RDS8THAVEGALLATINRDHUFFINE LNFRONTAGE RDROUSE AVEBRIDGER DRBRIDGERCANYONRDN 7TH AVEN 19TH AVEJACKRABBIT LNMAIN STDURSTON RDCOTTONWOOD RDDAVIS LNBABCOCK STBAXTER LNOAK STGARFIELD STPATTERSON RDFOWLER LNGOOCH HILL RDBLACKWOOD RDSOURDOUGH RDGOLDENSTEIN LNS 3RD AVESTUCKY RDFERGUSON AVEFOWLER AVE27TH STBEAR CANYON RD LOVE LNHARPER PUCKETT RDGRAF STNASH RDBOZEMAN TRAIL TAYABESHOCKUP RDFRONTAGE RDFORT ELLIS RDGRAF ST CATMOUNT STNELSON RDM CILH ATTAN RDMANLEY RDSTORY MILL RDNew HousingAllocationBOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN Source: City of Bozeman, MDT, RPA012½MilesMap LegendMontana State UniversityStudy AreaBozeman City LimitsRailroadNew Housing Allocation*1 Dot = 1 Dwelling Unit*Dot locations are intended to depictgeneral areas of growth from 2014 to2040. They do not represent exact locations. BOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN February 15, 2016 38 FINAL Figure 9: New Job Allocation (2014 - 2040) 9090191848586411345205345235191191HIGHLAND BLVDS 3RD AVEWILLSON AVEGRIFFIN DRKAGY BLVDDURSTON RDOAK STCOLLEGE STBOZEMAN TRAIL RDBAXTERLNBABCOCK STE VALLEY CENTER RDPEACH STMENDENHALL STS CHURCH AVE S 19TH AVESPRINGHILL RDS11THAVECOTTONWOOD RDS8THAVEGALLATINRDHUFFINE LNFRONTAGE RDROUSE AVEBRIDGER DRBRIDGERCANYONRDN 7TH AVEN 19TH AVEJACKRABBIT LNMAIN STDURSTON RDCOTTONWOOD RDDAVIS LNBABCOCK STBAXTER LNOAK STGARFIELD STPATTERSON RDFOWLER LNGOOCH HILL RDBLACKWOOD RDSOURDOUGH RDGOLDENSTEIN LNS 3RD AVESTUCKY RDFERGUSON AVEFOWLER AVE27TH STBEAR CANYON RD LOVE LNHARPER PUCKETT RDGRAF STNASH RDBOZEMAN TRAIL TAYABESHOCKUP RDFRONTAGE RDFORT ELLIS RDGRAF ST CATMOUNT STNELSON RDM CILH ATTAN RDMANLEY RDSTORY MILL RDNew JobAllocationBOZEMANTMP TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN Source: City of Bozeman, MDT, RPA012½MilesMap LegendMontana State UniversityStudy AreaBozeman City LimitsRailroadNew Job Allocation*1 Dot = 2 Jobs*Dot locations are intended to depictgeneral areas of growth from 2014 to2040. They do not represent exact locations.