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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCity of Bozeman RFP - Johnson Economics PROFESSIONAL SERVICES TO CONDUCT: ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS SERVICES IN SUPPORT OF A COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE LAND USE PROJECTION PREPARED FOR: THE CITY OF BOZEMAN, MONTANA JANUARY 31, 2017 CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE I TABLE OF CONTENTS LETTER OF SUBMITTAL I. PROJECT SUMMARY ....................................................................... 1 II. COMPANY DESCRIPTION/CAPABILITY ............................................ 2 FIRM HISTORY ................................................................................................. 2 SELECTED RELEVANT EXPERIENCE ........................................................................ 2 PROJECT MANAGEMENT CAPACITY ...................................................................... 4 III. PROJECT TEAM ............................................................................... 5 IV. REFERENCES ................................................................................... 8 V. OUTLINE OF SERVICES .................................................................... 9 VI. COST ............................................................................................. 13 CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE II January 31, 2017 Ms. Robin Crough CITY OF BOZEMAN 121 North Rouse Ave Suite 202 Bozeman, MT 59771 SUBJECT: Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Ms. Crough: JOHNSON ECONOMICS appreciates the opportunity to respond to the City of Bozeman’s request for a proposal for completion of economic and demographic analysis services related to land use. Our understanding is that the City will use this work to update the land use projection portion of its Comprehensive Plan Update. The City completed the previous Plan in 2009, and rapid development and changing economic conditions necessitate a revised baseline land demand profile and community growth projections, in conjunction with community priorities as described in local resource documents (including the 2009 Community Plan and 2016 City of Bozeman Economic Development Strategy, among others). The attached proposal lays forth our team's qualifications, experience, and approach to complete the tasks outlined in your request for proposals. Our firm specializes in land use analysis, and has built a model for predicting land use development by type and assessing the estimated impacts of various planning schemes in moderate-to-dense micropolitan and metropolitan settings. Additionally, JOHNSON ECONOMICS has undertaken multiple housing market analyses in the Western Montana region, as well as regional economic opportunity analyses in dozens of jurisdictions of varying size and type; please see Section II of this report for a more detailed description of relevant experience. Once again, we appreciate the opportunity to submit this updated proposal to the City. I am authorized to represent JOHNSON ECONOMICS in negotiations and sign contracts, and will serve as one of the City’s main contacts throughout the project. You can reach me via email at bwb@johnsoneconomics.com. I thank you for considering our proposal and I look forward to hearing your response. Sincerely, Brendan Buckley Senior Project Manager JOHNSON ECONOMICS CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 1 I. PROJECT SUMMARY JOHNSON ECONOMICS is pleased to present the City of Bozeman our proposal to help in the assistance of the delivery of an updated comprehensive plan, pursuant to Section 76-1-601, Montana Codes Annotated. Given our firm’s extensive experience in land use economic planning for jurisdictions such as Bozeman, we feel that we are positioned to be the ideal partner for the City as it moves forward in this process. The primary task of this report will be to create an economic and demographic data analysis oriented towards efficient and appropriate land use in and immediately surrounding the City of Bozeman, for use in the City’s comprehensive plan update. A baseline buildable land inventory (BLI) for subsequent analysis will be established using the existing detailed parcel fabric and GIS data provided by the City. JOHNSON ECONOMICS will provide extensive analytic insight towards redevelopment assumptions and highest and best use. Determination of said use will be derived from an economic opportunity analysis, which will incorporate a wide set of trend and condition data on a scale ranging from city-wide to global. Comprehensive consideration will be given to employment, key industries, and demographic and workforce characteristics in the determination of planning in accordance with industry and housing requirements, with special note to the important role that Montana State University plays in the local economy. Additionally, JOHNSON ECONOMICS will incorporate discussion of infrastructure and policy constraints, and develop implementation policies for City use. Deliverables will include a report that provides a clear narrative of the analysis and findings for policy makers and the public as well as professional staff (in both paper and digital formats), and six presentations to relevant city agencies. This scope will be refined following initial meetings, and JOHNSON ECONOMICS will coordinate closely with the City for the duration of this project, to ensure that the City’s needs are met in an efficient and timely fashion. CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 2 II. COMPANY DESCRIPTION/CAPABILITY FIRM HISTORY JOHNSON ECONOMICS is an established consulting firm founded in 2000 with a specific focus on the economic aspects of land use planning and real estate development. Our combination of expertise in economics, planning and the real estate market differentiates us from pure planning firms as well as pure economic consultancies. JOHNSON ECONOMICS has successfully completed hundreds of projects of all types and sizes for both public and private sector clients. Public-sector clients include cities, counties, regional governments, economic development agencies, urban renewal agencies, port districts, and others, ranging from the smallest to the largest in the Northwest. We enjoy high credibility in the private sector, and have access to the knowledge and opinions of businesses, professional developers and lenders. As a result, we offer our clients a comprehensive perspective on the interaction between public policy and private sector realities. We approach every project differently and work closely with each client both at the outset and throughout the project to craft an approach that meets that client’s needs. We regularly communicate with our clients to ensure that local staff are directly involved in and informed about our methodology and results, including interim work products. SELECTED RELEVANT EXPERIENCE OTHER PROJECTS IN WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO GREAT FALLS: HOUSING MARKET STUDY JOHNSON ECONOMICS has undertaken several studies in the Great Falls area covering a wide range of projects for both public and private entities. In 2015, the firm did a housing study for the City of Great Falls to determine the overall health of the housing market. The study included a thorough economic and demographic analysis in order to better understand the forces driving growth in the area and to determine where future housing need was for different income groups. In addition to this study, JOHNSON ECONOMICS has done numerous other market analyses to determine the feasibility of developing different mixed-use and multifamily buildings within the city. MISSOULA: MARKET ANALYSIS FOR A 196-UNIT MARKET RATE APARTMENT COMMUNITY A thorough demographic and economic profile of the Missoula area was completed in order to perform market depth analysis for a large, nearly 200-unit, multifamily project in this western Montana city. JOHNSON ECONOMICS looked at historic and recent market trends in order to develop structural (net new) and turnover demand projections, determine potential absorption levels, and to generate unit mixes that would be tailored to the Missoula community. WHITEFISH: MARKET ANALYSIS FOR A MULTIFAMILY PROJECT JOHNSON ECONOMICS completed this study for a privately-developed mixed-income apartment project in 2016. As with any similar housing study, one of the first and biggest components of analysis is researching the socio-economic trends of the market area to get detailed information on the local economy and demographics. As a resort town, Whitefish offers similarities to Bozeman upon which we can capitalize when conducting our analysis for the City. MOSCOW, IDAHO: URBAN RENEWAL DISTRICT MARKET ANALYSIS JOHNSON ECONOMICS was retained by the City of Moscow to evaluate development opportunities within the Legacy Crossing Urban Renewal District across several different land use types, including retail, office, and residential uses. This included: evaluating economic and demographic trends to determine projected demand for respective use types; evaluating achievable market pricing for respective use types; and assessing the redevelopment potential within the study area, including the identification of sites, use types, and product types with development potential in the near to mid-term. CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 3 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSES GOAL 9 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS—MULTIPLE JURISDICTIONS JOHNSON ECONOMICS is among the most qualified consultant teams in the preparation of Economic Development Strategies and Economic Opportunities Analysis in the State of Oregon. Over the last several years, JOHNSON ECONOMICS has completed similar assignments in dozens of jurisdictions, with particular experience in regional economic coordination and jurisdictions in Western Washington County, including Beaverton, Cornelius, Forest Grove, and Hillsboro. Economic Opportunities Analysis: Astoria, Beaverton, Boardman, Cornelius, Deschutes County, Hillsboro, Forest Grove, Keizer, Lincoln City, Medford, Milwaukie, Newport, North Plains, Troutdale, Hermiston, Klamath Falls, LaGrande, Lincoln City, Milton-Freewater, Seaside, Troutdale, and Union. Regional EOA: Central Oregon, East Multnomah County, Umatilla/Morrow Counties, Western Washington County, Wallowa County. CITY OF KEIZER: ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES AND HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS JOHNSON ECONOMICS developed an EOA and Housing Needs Analysis for the City of Keizer, which was adopted by the City in 2013. The work was done within the context of a regional EOA for the Salem-Keizer metropolitan area, and addressed the area’s current position within the greater metropolitan area. The EOA work built upon the regional work, and included a significantly improved methodology for refining the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI). This project included an extensive public outreach effort, both to the community as well as agencies reviewing the plans. The consultant team’s work including evaluating and recommending revisions to Comprehensive Plan goals and policies and Development Code requirements related to housing and economic development. As part of this effort, the team also evaluated potential efficiency measures for reducing the need for future urban growth boundary expansions. CITY OF MEDFORD, GOAL 9 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS JOHNSON ECONOMICS completed an economic opportunities analysis, as well as an updated economic element for the City of Medford’s comprehensive plan. The primary focus of analysis and findings was the adequacy of Medford’s inventory of large parcels for office and commercial development. We found an acute shortage and assisted the City in documenting need based on faster-than-average economic growth scenarios modeled in coordination with City staff. Finally, JOHNSON ECONOMICS and CSA Planning assisted the City in identifying a rapidly expanding hospitality cluster, its importance to economic diversification, and the likely resulting land needs of the industry in the future. Our team’s work on this project has received special commendation from both the Department of Land Conservation and Development, and the Medford City Council. DLCD offers the Medford Economic Opportunities Analysis on its website as a model Goal 9 report. LAND USE FORECASTING METRO: URBAN GROWTH REPORT - REDEVELOPABLE LANDS METHODOLOGY JOHNSON ECONOMICS worked with Oregon Metro’s economist to develop a module for predicting redevelopment activity within the Portland metropolitan area’s urban growth boundary. The project entailed working with development industry and planning professionals from local jurisdictions to establish current market pricing for land in a series of geographic submarkets within the Metro area, and using Metro’s Regional Land Information System CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 4 (RLIS) parcel level data to generate an inventory of properties with a likelihood to redevelop. The work was utilized to supplement the estimated carrying capacity from vacant and developable property for residential, commercial and industrial uses. DOWNTOWN CORVALLIS ASSOCIATION: DOWNTOWN REVITALIZATION STUDY JOHNSON ECONOMICS led a team that evaluated strategies for revitalizing the Downtown Corvallis’ commercial core. The focus of the analysis was on strategies to strengthen the downtown area’s competitive position vis-à-vis emerging large format retail concentrations on the periphery of town, and develop a competitive tenant mix. The project included a detailed market analysis, physical inventory of properties and businesses, focus groups with business owners and developers and strategic recommendations regarding future actions. PROJECT MANAGEMENT CAPACITY To the right is an organizational chart for JOHNSON ECONOMICS. Jerry Johnson would serve as project manager for any work completed through this contract, using staff as needed and appropriate. Depending upon the nature of the assignment, either Brendan or Jon may serve as an alternative point of contact. JOHNSON ECONOMICS has a proven track record of completing projects throughout the United States and internationally. The firm regularly works cooperatively and effectively with public agencies, engineers, architects, developers, financial institutions, market researchers, the brokerage community, business leaders and citizen groups. Professionals at JOHNSON ECONOMICS have worked on hundreds of similar assignments in the last two decades. We bring strong credibility in the private development sector. We have worked as a prime consultant on a number of complex assignments, assembling and directing disciplines such as urban design, engineers, transportation consultants, architects and planners. The firm has worked cooperatively with a range of firms in the Northwest, and maintains extensive relationships within the development community. We feel our firm’s mix of experience and networking allows a distinct advantage in terms of ability to respond quickly to client needs, as well as our in depth understanding of the Pacific Northwest’s economic and real estate dynamics, which allows us to hit the ground running on new assignments. As a firm, it is our policy to deliver a superior work product within the agreed to time frame and budget. While time frames are often shifted due to variables outside of our control, it is our policy to meet all commitments. JOHNSON ECONOMICS also has extensive capabilities and non-personnel resources that it can commit to assignments, many of which are summarized below:  Economic/Fiscal Impact Analysis, including proficiency with IMPlan modeling software  GIS Modelling (ArcGIS, QGIS)  Statistical Analysis and Econometric Modeling (Stata, R)  Land Development Modeling - JOHNSON ECONOMICS has developed a series of proprietary econometric models for land development, which have been extensively used and refined over the last decade.  Financial Analysis, including extensive experience with public-private ventures. CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 5 III. PROJECT TEAM JERALD W. JOHNSON, NABE Principal, JOHNSON ECONOMICS JERALD JOHNSON is a real estate market and regional economic development consultant. He has consulted on a broad range of real estate development and land use economic topics, for both public- and private-sector clients. As a Principal with JOHNSON ECONOMICS, Mr. Johnson is involved in research design, economic and financial modeling, and market analysis. Mr. Johnson’s consulting experience includes a wide variety of real estate development and economic topics. Mr. Johnson is also an adjunct professor at Portland State University’s Masters of Real Estate Development (MRED) program, teaching real estate finance and real estate market analysis to graduate students. He currently sits on the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors. Experience: Economic development analysis and efforts for various entities, including the Cities of Portland, Seattle, Hillsboro, Gresham, Troutdale, Fairview, Beaverton, Newport, Redmond, Medford, Marysville, Lynnwood and Lincoln City. Market and financial analysis for major developers, including Opus Northwest, Schnitzer Northwest, Vulcan Properties, Trammell Crow Residential, BRE Properties, Intrawest, Birtcher-Mitsui, Lincoln Properties, Gramor Northwest, Weyerhaeuser Real Estate, Sobrato Development, Macerich, Jones Lang LaSalle, United Dominion Realty Trust, Equity and Security Capital. Market analysis for public sector jurisdictions and agencies, including the Portland Development Commission, Port of Portland, Metro, City of Seattle, and numerous jurisdictions throughout the Pacific Northwest. Jerry is a frequent speaker on the economics of land development, land use management issues, and affordable housing. Over the last twenty years, Mr. Johnson has developed a practice that combines extensive familiarity with land development issues as well as the interface between public policy and market dynamics. Specific Tasks for This Project: Jerry will be the primary point of contact for the City of Bozeman. He and at least one other member of the firm will be present at all required meetings and be the lead on all presentations. Jerry will organize the work flow and give work to other members of the firm so that it will be completed in the most complete and efficient manner. Jerry developed the firm’s land forecasting model and will take the lead in seeing that it is run with the correct specifications. He will also lead the development of implementation policies and edit the draft and final report for consistency. Education: Portland State University Master of Science in Urban Planning Bachelor of Science in Art/Economics Areas of Specialization:  Land Use & Regional Economics - Public need analysis for conditional use permits and comprehensive plan and zone changes for residential, industrial, retail, and lodging uses; - Development fee incidence analysis; - Strategic Planning and residential and commercial needs assessment; and - Target industry analysis.  Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Market Analysis - All residential property types; - Business parks, including flex space and warehouse/distribution facilities; - Office developments, including mid- and high-rise Class A buildings and suburban office parks; - Retail developments, including neighborhood, community, regional and specialty retail centers; - Hotel/motel and conference center developments.  Financial Analysis - Feasibility analysis for residential, commercial, and recreational/entertainment developments; - Residual land value analysis and highest and best use analysis; and - `Least cost location analysis. CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 6 BRENDAN BUCKLEY Senior Project Manager, JOHNSON ECONOMICS BRENDAN BUCKLEY is a Senior Project Manager with JOHNSON ECONOMICS. Mr. Buckley conducts market research and public policy analysis for a range of public and private sector clients. He has professional experience in Urban & Regional Planning, Urban Renewal, Economic Development and Housing. Brendan's background provides a strong knowledge of public sector planning and economic development programs and processes. Prior to joining JOHNSON ECONOMICS, Mr. Buckley served as an Associate City Planner for the City of Gresham, Policy and Research Assistant for the Everett Housing Authority, and a Project Manager at Imandi Corporation. an Associate with JOHNSON ECONOMICS. He has a Master of Science in Economics from Portland State University, where he also obtained dual undergraduate degrees in Economics and Geography as well as a minor in GIS. He also serves as an editor for the economics journal Panoeconomicus. Mr. Goldsmith specializes in econometric and geographic information systems (GIS) analysis. He uses this skillset to work on a broad range of issues, including market research, transportation analysis, highest and best use analysis, regional economic and demographic analysis, pricing analysis, and for preparing research for use in expert testimony. Recent Experience:  Analysis of the marginal impact of Streetcar investments on predicted development patterns for Metro and the FTA.  Study of the City of Portland’s density bonus and transfer system.  Market and redevelopment analysis for the Eastside MAX stations in Portland, Oregon.  GIS analysis in support of JOHNSON ECONOMICS study of the effects of urban amenities on residential land values in multiple Portland Metro area town centers.  Goal 10 housing needs analysis for multiple jurisdictions throughout the State of Oregon  Affordable housing studies for the Housing Authority of Portland and St. Vincent DePaul.  Downtown revitalization studies for multiple Oregon jurisdictions.  Market analysis in support of the City of Vancouver’s Section 30 subarea plan.  Market analysis of fractional-ownership resort condominiums at Mt. Hood and the Oregon coast.  URA Plan and Report for districts in Forest Grove, Hillsboro, Boardman, and Hemiston.  Market and highest and best use analysis for the Kenton District. Specific Tasks for This Project: Brendan will lead the firm’s work on Tasks 2.3 and 2.4 detailed in Section V. This work will entail the completion of an economic trends analysis and the determination of employment land availability needs. Brendan will work with the City to obtain all of the necessary data detailed below. This will include an economic health report of the City of Bozeman and the Micropolitan Statistical Area as a whole, employment industry analysis. With his planning background, Brendan offers a unique perspective when looking at individual parcels for potential development/redevelopment. Taking into consideration location, visibility, scale, access and configuration, and the results of our land forecasting model, he will synthesize a report detailing the focus that is most important for a continually healthy land use system. Education: Portland State University Portland, Oregon Masters of Urban and Regional Planning Graduate Certificate in Real Estate Development Willamette University Salem, Oregon BA Philosophy (Cum Laude) Areas of Specialization:  Market Analysis  Interface of Public Policy and Private Development  Urban Renewal and Redevelopment  Feasibility and Plans  Pro Forma and Feasibility Analysis  Urban and Regional Planning  Affordable Housing  GIS CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 7 IAN R. GOLDSMITH Associate, JOHNSON ECONOMICS IAN GOLDSMITH is an Associate with JOHNSON ECONOMICS. He has a Master of Science in Economics from Portland State University, where he also obtained dual undergraduate degrees in Economics and Geography as well as a minor in GIS. He also serves as an editor for the economics journal Panoeconomicus. Mr. Goldsmith specializes in econometric and geographic information systems (GIS) analysis. He uses this skillset to work on a broad range of issues, including market research, transportation analysis, highest and best use analysis, regional economic and demographic analysis, pricing analysis, and preparing research for use in expert testimony. Recent Experience:  Currently working on writing predictive models to help determine the highest and best use for land in the Portland Metro area at the parcel level.  As part of the above project, has created a model in GIS and statistical software to create maps of interpolated rent levels (multifamily residential, retail, office, and industrial) in the Portland Metro area.  Transportation analysis to determine the differences in potential development levels due to the implementation of either light rail or bus rapid transit (BRT) along the proposed SW Corridor in the Portland Metro Area.  A study to determine the feasibility of a multifamily project in downtown Milwaukie, Oregon.  Market analysis for the City of Gladstone, Oregon to aid in the development of a downtown revitalization plan.  Highest and best use analysis for a riparian site in the city of Washougal, Washington.  Retail gap analysis for the Cities of Las Cruces, New Mexico and Battle Ground, Washington.  Multifamily residential pricing analysis for a proposed project in Gresham, Oregon. Ian is also a Certified Master Recycler, and is a member of the Lake Oswego Planning Commission. He presented his paper on the effects of landslide risk on home sale values at the annual Western Economics Association International conference in 2016. Specific Tasks for This Project: Ian will be tasked with organizing and completing all necessary GIS work for the project. This includes, but is not limited to, working with the City of Bozeman to collect all necessary shapefiles and geodatabases, cleaning the obtained data for our land forecasting models, and creating all of the maps that will be in the draft and final reports. He will also be completing all of the related econometric modeling associated with our land forecasting models. Ian will obtain all of the necessary demographic data, analyze the current demographic landscape of the Bozeman Micropolitan Statistical Area as well as discover demographic trends in the area, and use this information to forecast the population numbers for the use in the upcoming comprehensive plan. He will also assist Brendan in the completion of the analysis in Tasks 2.2 and 2.3 detailed in Section V in this document. Education: Portland State University Portland, Oregon MS Economics Graduate Certificate in Environmental and Resource Economics Portland State University Portland, Oregon BS Economics BS Geography, GIS Minor Areas of Specialization:  Econometric and Statistical Analysis  GIS Analysis  Regional Economic Analysis  Highest and Best Use Analysis  Residential Pricing Analysis  Feasibility Analysis for Industrial, Commercial Retail, Office, and Residential Development  Sustainability  Long-range Population Forecasting CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 8 IV. REFERENCES The following is a partial list of references that managed our efforts on similar projects in their communities or for their agencies over the last few years. JOHNSON ECONOMICS has completed numerous projects during that period, and would be pleased to provide additional references and/or project examples at your request. Population was obtained by the most recent U.S. Census Bureau estimates. Employee counts were obtained by either calling departments directly or, if no response was received, going to the respective agencies’ websites. Bill Belknap, Community Development Director City of Moscow 221 E. Second Street Moscow, ID 83843 208-883-7011 bbelknap@ci.moscow.id.us Population: 25,060 # of Employees: 7 Project Start/Completion: Aug. 2014 – Feb. 2015 Description of Work: Evaluation of development opportunities within the Legacy Crossing Urban Renewal District across a number of different land use types, including retail, office, and residential uses. Clinton Spencer, City Planner City of Hermiston Planning Department 180 NE 2nd Street Hermiston, OR 97838 541-567-5521 cspencer@hermiston.or.us Population: 17,201 # of Employees: 2 Project Start/Completion: May 2010 – May 2011 Description of Work: Economic opportunities analysis and development strategy, including a buildable lands inventory and baseline and alternative scenario demand forecasts. Colin Cooper, Planning Director City of Hillsboro 150 E. Main Street Hillsboro, OR 97123 (503) 681-6481 colinc@ci.hillsboro.or.us Population: 102,347 # of Employees: 24 Project Start/Completion: Jun. 2015 – Aug. 2016 Description of Work: Economic opportunity analysis to ensure adequate land provision for economic development and employment growth, in accordance with Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 9. Tom Hogue, Goal 9 Specialist Dept. of Land Conservation and Development 635 Capitol Street NE, Suite 150 Salem, OR 97301-2540 (503) 373-0050 ext. 323 thomas.hogue@state.or.us Population: 164,549 (Salem)/ 4,093,465 (Oregon) # of Employees: 58 Project Start/Completion: Ongoing Description of Work: Tom Hogue has worked with JOHNSON ECONOMICS regarding the establishment and implementation of statewide standards for economic opportunities analyses, and has reviewed our work on said analyses for multiple jurisdictions. CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 9 V. OUTLINE OF SERVICES The work program includes a listed scope of services and deliverables, which we use as the basis of our work program. Section 76-1-601 from Montana Codes Annotated will also direct our work product, as will recent work done for and by the City of Bozeman, including, but not limited to: the 2009 Bozeman Community Plan, 2009 Downtown Bozeman Improvement Plan, 2016 City of Bozeman Economic Development Strategy, 2016 Economic Profile of Gallatin and Park Counties, and the 2017 City of Bozeman Strategic Plan. We would propose an initial meeting to refine the scope of work and timeline to meet the City’s needs at the outset of the project. JOHNSON ECONOMICS has developed a number of analytical approaches that significantly increase the value of mandated economic and demographic analyses for jurisdictions, descriptions of which are included in our suggested approach. The end product of this analysis will be two hard copies and one PDF summarizing our analysis, as well as presentations to both the City of Bozeman City Commission and Planning Board. The work will be completed collaboratively with City staff, who will aid JOHNSON ECONOMICS in the acquisition of the public data necessary to complete this project. This section outlines our methodological approach, as well as suggested variations to the tasks outlined in the scope of services portion of the RFP. GENERAL APPROACH JOHNSON ECONOMICS’ approach is economic development-driven and informed by extensive understanding of the economics and physical issues of land development. This includes:  Significant effort in outreach to local commercial, industrial, public agencies and other stakeholders-- a hallmark of our approach and our success.  Critical assessment of land needs, characteristics, constraints, infrastructure and economic characteristics with an economic and land development perspective, tempered by thoughtful and considered land use planning experience and perspective.  A realistic assessment of existing conditions (both economic and demographic) before the visioning and goal setting process occurs to provide a truly informed “where we are – where do we want to go” approach, resulting in a grounded understanding of how to get there with fewer surprises.  Over twenty-five years of experience brought to the project specifically in assessing not only public economic and development strategic thinking and analysis, but seasoned experience with economic, demographic, financial, and planning feasibility of private development projects, including regional work in Great Falls, Missoula, and Whitefish. As the county seat of Gallatin County and the center of a growing micropolitan area, the City of Bozeman’s economic development efforts are intrinsically tied to the broader region. Not only is the City home to a rapidly growing university, but it also operates as a main stop off point to ski resorts and acts as a de facto gateway to Yellowstone National Park, which saw over four million visitors in 2015. The study will build on and add value to similar work that has already been conducted by the City and regional economic development efforts by groups such as Prospera Business Network and Leland Consulting Group. Our expectation is that the work will include a thorough review of the existing materials, to assure that the components are in place to prepare an analysis consistent with all requirements as well as consistent with the City’s needs. Specifically, JOHNSON ECONOMICS aims to work with the city to help it attain its newly adopted economic development CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 10 strategy, which aims to prioritize growth of existing and new businesses, investment in infrastructure, and the focus on education and workforce development in order to help build a stronger local job pool from which business will have their choice of highly skilled workers. JOHNSON ECONOMICS’ extensive background in private and public sector development provides a strong pragmatic understanding of the realities of land development for a wide range of uses. The key to a successful economic opportunities analysis is identifying the appropriate industries, clearly delineating their needs, and documenting the analysis and conclusion in a way that is intuitively understandable to a general audience. APPROACH The following scope of work is organized consistently with the RFP, with the outlined tasks and deliverables seen as the basic framework for this effort. Task 1: Project Management and Public Engagement This task includes initial project planning and ongoing management with city employees. In addition, the City will coordinate a series of advisory groups for the project, including the following entities:  Planning Board  Economic Development Council  City Commission Our team will work to clarify the work program and schedule at the initiation of the project, and then set up periodic check-in meetings to review progress against agreed-upon tasks and budget. The consultant team is expected to check in every other week to outline progress on:  Recently Performed Work;  Upcoming Tasks;  Upcoming Milestones;  Scope and Schedule Issues  Issues to Be Aware Of. The team would expect to present to the City no less than six times throughout the process as outlined in the RFP. These meetings would comprise of the aforementioned kick-off meeting with the Planning Board, reports of initial findings to the Planning Board and Economic Development Council, a draft report to the City Commission, and final reports to both the City Commission and the Planning Board. Though the RFP states that electronic attendance is acceptable for all meetings other than final report presentations, JOHNSON ECONOMICS proposes that we attend the initial meeting with the Planning Board in person. This will help us to gain a better rapport with the Board and community members, as well as give us an opportunity to explore the City and the surrounding areas. Interim meetings would be held electronically. Task 2: Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) This task will entail development of an EOA for the upcoming City of Bozeman comprehensive plan. The analysis will be reconciled with the City’s stated objectives, current policies, and previous work products. In addition, the product will meet the requirements of Section 76-1-601, Montana Codes Annotated. Task 2.1: Current Buildable Lands Inventory – The ongoing land use inventory kept by the Bozeman Department of Planning and Community Development will provide current data that JOHNSON ECONOMICS will use to establish the contemporary baseline. The team will consult with the City to ensure that critical site characteristics are documented, allowing for reconciliation with projected demand and identified site requirements. CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 11 In contrast to the existing inventory, JOHNSON ECONOMICS will provide more detail with respect to appropriate redevelopment assumptions. Task 2.2: Economic Trends Analysis – Consistent with the RFP, this task will evaluate global, national, state, and local economic conditions relevant to the City, which has enjoyed considerable growth over the past decade. Our approach to this task will focus on the current economic and demographic characteristics of Bozeman and, furthermore, on the macroeconomic trends that we expect to influence the extent and form of employment and housing land need in Bozeman over the planning period. These include but are not limited to:  Demographic factors, especially those influencing workforce availability and skill development  Factors influencing the cost of businesses such as energy, labor, productivity, capital utilization, and site selection  Local and regional policy framework Our economic trend analysis is based on national and metropolitan area trends and forecasts. Demographic data will be derived from the City of Bozeman, US Census, and the Montana Department of Commerce’s Census and Economic Information Center. Bozeman-specific employment data will be obtained by the City of Bozeman and include, but not be limited to, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data sets. Central Bozeman industries will be identified and delineated, within the constraints of proprietary data. Identify emerging trends and conditions within selected industries, including:  Utilization of capital, energy, and labor  Trends in site selection criteria prioritization  Identify emerging industry shifts (i.e. linkages in bio-technology, food production and bio-energy, microelectronics integration in everything from medicine to automobiles)  Impacts of regulatory environment, (i.e. global trade policies, subsidies, tax structure etc.) These factors will be translated into potential impacts on growth prospects and site needs at the local level. The target industry analysis is informed by an assessment of the workforce characteristics in the area. The availability of an appropriate workforce is a key requirement for many industries, and matching available skill sets and training programs with identifies needs will be critical to correctly setting targets as well as subsequently realizing economic development objectives. Using industry and regionally specific occupational staffing data from the Montana Department of Labor and Industry, we will produce an assessment that estimates the occupation needs of specific targeted industries and reconciles it with local supply to determine how well suited a community is to meet future staffing needs. This analysis will include the following:  Number of jobs demanded by broad occupational category.  The most common occupations demanded for particular target industry (i.e. engineers, assemblers, computer programmers, etc.)  The penetration of local supply required to staff top occupations.  The local growth outlook for the highest demanded occupations.  The typical labor wage costs associated with staffing particular target industries.  The minimum training required for the highest demanded occupations.  A demographic profile of the local workforce CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 12 Our experience is that availability and quality of labor force is a top priority for new and expanding firms. This task would supplement the land needs reconciliation to verify not just the adequacy of site characteristics, but also workforce characteristics. Task 2.3: Employment Land Availability and Needs - This task is a primary deliverable for this project, and one that the consultant team has developed well accepted models to complete. Our approach varies from the basic template – defining employment-driven aggregate need—into more clearly defined industry and real estate product needs. This additional analysis provides a much better basis for the later reconciliation of available capacity with projected needs, as it clarifies what is needed in terms of sites with definable criteria such as location, visibility, scale, access and configuration. In the case of Bozeman, remaining sensitive to the Historic Core while providing ample and efficient opportunities for expansion is key. Our work in this section will include additional analysis of the site needs for local industry, and the ability of specific sites within the City’s planning area boundary and immediate-surrounding area to meet industry requirements. This will also include an assessment of necessary infrastructures, as well as potential limitations and funding mechanisms to address any deficiencies. A significant focus of our work will be on short-term supply, reflecting readily available inventory. Specific tasks for this portion of the analysis include:  Evaluating the adequacy of existing, available lands for selected industries within Bozeman.  Identifying the types of sites for each selected industry using a typical requirement for utilities and infrastructure and adjacent suppliers and amenities that typically support those industries.  Evaluating the top two barriers to industrial site readiness by subarea  Identifying an industry profile including site size preference, site adjacency to transportation (air and rail) and utility data based on a local sampling of usage for said industries. The product would evaluate both the short- and long-term ability of local land supply to accommodate anticipated growth. The presentations to the City will be highly graphical and interactive, as we strongly believe that good policy requires clear understanding of whatever analysis is available. The degree to which the City can provide useful feedback is a function of our ability to convey to them the findings of our analysis. Task 2.4: Demographic Analysis – One of the major components of the analysis is a thorough look at current and historic population trends in the Bozeman Micropolitan Statistical Area. JOHNSON ECONOMICS will work with city employees to determine the best course of action for data acquisition. JOHNSON ECONOMICS intends to obtain demographic information from the City of Bozeman, the Montana Department of Commerce’s Census and Economic Information Center, and the U.S. Census Bureau. We also intend to work with the City to obtain enrollment figures from Montana State University. As Bozeman is a college town, any analysis of its population must take into account this information. We will also work with the City to obtain building permit data as well as data regarding housing starts. Fulfillment of the demographic analysis will include, but is not limited to, the following steps.  Identify trends in the local population’s age, gender, and race. This analysis will be done not only at a Micropolitan Area level, but at the block group level using U.S. Census information.  Identify trends in income levels per capita by examining population data in concert with employment data.  Analyze the relationship between Montana State University enrollment with the population in the BMSA  Identify trends in building permits, housing starts, and household size. Combined with data obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, this information will be used to forecast housing tenure splits and household size. CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS PAGE 13 Task 2.5: Develop Implementation Policies – The key output to a successful economic opportunities analysis is a well-conceived set of implementation policies, which provide recommendations on actions to support Economic Development objectives. The policies will be based on the preceding work product, and will address a broad range of issues that can have a substantive impact on economic development in the City of Bozeman. Tasks 2.6 and 2.7: Prepare Draft and Final Reports – Another key component in a successful EOA is preparation of a report that conveys the information and analysis in a clear and concise manner, appropriate for a range of prospective audiences. While covering technical issues, the final report needs to present a clear narrative of the analysis and findings that can inform policy makers and the public as well as professional staff. VI. COST The costs of the project are detailed in a separate sealed envelope as requested in the RFP.