HomeMy WebLinkAboutRFPResponse_HoltkampPlanning
Proposal to:
City of Bozeman, MT
Economic and Demographic Analysis
Submitted by:
Chris Holtkamp, AICP
Principal
8402A Tallwood Dr
Austin, TX 78759
512-217-0173
www.HoltkampPlanning.com
Table of Contents
Project Summary .......................................................................................................................... 1
Company Description / Capability........................................................................................... 3
Project Team ................................................................................................................................. 7
References ................................................................................................................................... 13
Outline of Services ..................................................................................................................... 15
City of Bozeman, MT Economic and Demographic Analysis RFP
Holtkamp Planning 1
Project Summary
The existing and extensive body of planning work already completed in Bozeman outlines
a clear vision for the future, as well as short- and long-term community goals and objectives. The
proposal contained herein describes a project that will not seek to replicate these efforts, but to
leverage them as invaluable resources as our team updates materials to reflect current, changing,
and future conditions. Our work will develop and unpack revised data on existing land use,
population trends, and demographic changes. We will not look simply at these trends in Bozeman,
but will incorporate regional and national happenings that stands to influence development in
Bozeman over time.
A detailed discussion of our process can be found in the Outline of Services section below.
We will utilize the existing body of work available from the City, along with our experience and
expertise to answer the questions: how will changing demographic and economic circumstances
affect Bozeman, and how can the City best position itself to benefit from these changes? The
answer to these questions will be grounded in a comprehensive and data-driven examination of the
city’s current policies, goals, and values, to understand how Bozeman has developed over time,
and where residents see the community moving forward.
Once we establish and explain existing conditions, we will develop a range of scenarios
for future development to accommodate expected changes. These scenarios will be based on the
existing goal of commercial density and more mixed use, while reflecting trends such as changing
employment patterns, household characteristics, and related factors that will influence future
development patterns for commercial and residential development in and around Bozeman.
Creating such scenarios will empower residents and decision-makers to identify and self-select
from contextually sensitive development paths that aim to account for forecasted changes while
protecting community heritage and values.
Throughout the process, we will conduct public engagement to get feedback and direction
to ensure that our work fits well with the values and heritage of Bozeman. Following public
engagement with respect to our proposed development scenarios, will author a final report to
communicate our data, analyses, processes, and recommendations for implementing the
community’s preferred scenario. The report will articulate potential policies, ordinance updates,
and other strategies that can be adopted to encourage development that conforms to the selected
scenario. An economic analysis will also be provided that includes potential costs and benefits for
the selected development pattern to ensure future growth is financially feasible for the City. A
proposed schedule for this process is below.
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6
Kick Off Meeting
Data and Plan Review
Scenario and Initial
Recommendations
Public Engagement
Draft Development
Draft Presentation
Final Analysis Development
Presentation and Adoption
City of Bozeman, MT Economic and Demographic Analysis RFP
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Company Description and History
Prior to founding Holtkamp Planning, Mr. Holtkamp worked for the Lower Colorado River
Authority (LCRA) providing community and economic development services to cities purchasing
water and / or electricity from LCRA. When LCRA made the decision to cut its community and
economic development program in 2012, Mr. Holtkamp started his own firm. Because of the strong
relationships he cultivated and the quality of the work he provided during his tenure at LCRA, Mr.
Holtkamp found success by working in many of the same communities after leaving LCRA. He
also had the opportunity to expand his practice beyond Central Texas, undertaking projects in
Colorado, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
Project Management and Philosophy
Holtkamp Planning’s project management approach is very hands on; we work very closely
with elected and appointed officials and residents. Our projects are never developed behind closed
doors or in isolation. Rather, all of our efforts are collaborations with the communities in which
we work. To ensure success, our work will incorporate existing data and knowledge as well as new
ideas generated from our analysis and through public engagement. Our goal is to provide a report
that offers clear direction to inform decision making. City leaders will be confident in utilizing our
work, knowing it is based on detailed research and has the support of Bozeman residents.
Experience and Capacity
Holtkamp Planning has provided services in communities of all sizes. Our portfolio
includes communities that are growing very rapidly and seek strategies to protect their identity and
quality of life; as well as those that have faced stagnation or decline, and are desperate for ideas to
spur growth and grow the local economy. In all cases, there is a need to identify goals that are
rooted in local identity and heritage and are tailored to the specific conditions of that community.
A one-size-fits-all approach will result in a plan that gathers dust and does not provide direction
for the city to affect meaningful change. A few relevant examples of projects are detailed below.
Port Lavaca Demographic and Economic Profile and Future Land Use Plan
Port Lavaca is located on the Texas coast and is working to establish an economic
development program to attract new businesses and support existing businesses in the City. To
help establish this effort, the City needed a detailed Demographic and Economic Profile that
provided information on current population statistics, traffic counts, and a market analysis that
could be used to help attract new retail businesses as well as primary employers.
In addition, the City saw a need to develop a Future Land Use Plan as part of a vision for how Port
Lavaca should grow. City leaders wanted a plan that would facilitate their decision making as it
relates to issues of transportation and infrastructure to support desired growth objectives. The
Future Land Use Plan included an annexation component that identified appropriate areas for
annexation that would benefit the City. The Future Land Use Plan was rooted in the data developed
through the Demographic Profile, providing adequate land to meet expected growth, focusing
commercial and industrial growth in the most suitable areas, and providing a vision for Port
Lavaca’s future based on community values.
City of Bozeman, MT Economic and Demographic Analysis RFP
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Vision Bay City 2040 City of Bay City, TX
(http://visionbaycity2040.com/)
Bay City is a town of approximately 18,000 located in Wharton County, near Matagorda
Bay. Bay City has experienced population decline over the last 20 years; however, there has been
significant new economic investment in the region and is expected that this will lead to renewed
growth in the community. Bay City needed to develop a vision for the community to provide a
framework for decision making and spur action. The City is combating negative perceptions and
lack of engagement from many citizens and needed to regain citizen support and participation.
To ensure public support for the plan and its recommendations, we developed a proactive
approach that included significant public outreach and multiple avenues of engagement. Our
process included interviews, focus groups, Town Hall meetings, as well as a community survey
that received approximately 1,000 responses. In addition, we utilized social media to provide an
additional avenue of input for residents. Our process resulted in a plan that reflects the priorities
of Bay City residents. The goals are based on the information we gathered from residents, not a
boiler plate plan that doesn’t fit local needs.
We developed a detailed Implementation Guide that identifies each Goal, specific action
steps, timelines, responsible parties, as well as estimated costs and funding sources. The
Implementation Guide is designed to provide all the information needed for the community to take
action. Even before the Plan was adopted, the City had begun taking action to address issues that
were being identified. This includes issuing $4 million in certificates of obligation to address road
maintenance issues, and beginning an in depth review of the City’s development process to ensure
the process is efficient and fair.
Too often, cities think developing the plan is the hard part, without realizing that the work
really begins once the plan is adopted. Bay City embraced this reality and upon adoption of the
plan set a special workshop specifically to begin the implementation process.
Cheektowaga, NY Updated Community Inventory and Profile
Cheektowaga, NY is a Town of approximately 88,000 people situated adjacent to the City
of Buffalo in western New York State. The Town prepared a draft comprehensive plan several
years ago; however, at the start of summer 2016, the draft had neither been presented to the public
nor, consequently, formally adopted by the Town Board. As the Town now seeks public feedback
on the plan prior to potential adoption, it recognized the dated nature of one of the plan’s most
fundamental chapters: the Community Inventory and Profile. We are currently working on an
updated version of this chapter for the Town. Our approach involves open public engagement,
regular interactions with Town departments, elected officials, and local institutions, and rigorous
data analysis. Updates a to the Community Inventory and Profile center on describing, mapping,
and explaining changes in: land use patterns; land use controls; demographic and socioeconomic
compositions; housing markets and housing conditions; economic development patterns;
environmental resources and conditions; utility infrastructure and provision networks;
transportation networks, transportation supply, and transportation demand; community facilities
and cultural resources; and community visions and policy priorities. The project draws on primary
data from surveys and interviews, as well as secondary data from the U.S. Census Bureau
Decennial Census and American Community Survey, the New York State Office of Real Property
Tax Services, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the U.S. Environmental
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Protection Agency, Esri Business Analyst, the U.S. Census Building Permit Survey, and the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency SmartLocation Database, among others.
Pilot Analysis of the Montana Horizons Program (peer-reviewed article; not fee-based)
From 2006 to 2008, sixteen rural communities in Montana took part in a multiphase
poverty reduction program that was administered through Montana State University Extension.
The communities selected for the intervention were those that recently experienced decline or
demographic change. All participant communities received the same resources and tools, and the
program was carried out in three phases. In the first phase, citizens came together to “discuss and
define poverty and assets within their community”. The second phase consisted of leadership
training, whereby community members were provided with information, skills, and
encouragement to either establish new or take on active roles in existing community organizations.
The culminating third phase then engaged citizens in community visioning.
Community visioning is a participatory planning process in which a representative
assemblage of a place’s citizens work together to articulate a consensual vision for the place’s
future, and to coauthor a strategic framework for achieving that vision. By empowering citizens—
preferably as large and diverse a group as possible—to negotiate and set the terms of a collective
future in this manner, community visioning is an effective means for revealing otherwise latent
values, assets, and synergies that are embedded within a given sociospatial landscape.
Consequently, community visioning tends to produce more than just planning goals, priorities, and
action steps. It also facilitates interactions that build intra-community trust and social capital; and
it motivates residents to become more proactive in anticipating and engaging with changes that are
coming to their communities.
On that backdrop, the three phases/components of (1) public discussion, (2) leadership
training, and (3) community visioning combine in ways that feasibly enhance a community’s
resilience. For instance: public discussion encourages discovery of shared values, which builds
cultural capital; leadership training is a direct investment into a place’s human capital; and, as
suggested above, community visioning tends to build social capital. Moreover, all of these
intangible, as well as more tangible (e.g., built, financial, natural) forms of capital exhibit
complementarities, such that efficacious investments into some create a “spiraling up”
phenomenon that positively affects the others. The result of such an upward spiral is increased
community capacity to cope with change.
In this way, the Montana Horizons program was, in effect, a community capacity-building
“treatment” that was applied to sixteen places within a quasi-natural experiment. In this project,
we analyzed the effects of this quasi-natural experiment using a combination of statistical matching
techniques and difference-in-differences methods. The study revealed that key U.S. Census
socioeconomic indicators either improved more rapidly or declined more slowly in communities
that took part in the program, relative to a statistically matched control group. We argued that the
findings offer persuasive circumstantial evidence for the ability of participatory community
visioning and planning programs to build the capacity of communities in Montana.
Citation: Weaver, R. (2016). Capacity-building and community resilience: a pilot analysis of education
and employment indicators before and after an Extension intervention. Journal of Extension, 54(2):
2FEA1.
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Project Team
Chris Holtkamp, AICP
Chris Holtkamp, AICP has over 16 years of experience working in rural communities and
understands the importance of providing clear, detailed implementation strategies to help these
communities succeed. He spent 13 years at the Lower Colorado River Authority providing
community and economic development assistance to rural communities throughout Central Texas.
The focus of this work was primarily rural communities, and he developed a deep understanding
of the unique opportunities and challenges facing these cities. This experience also led to an
acknowledgement of the need to focus on capacity building to ensure successful implementation
of adopted plans. He recognized that success was built on a foundation of engagement and
education, providing needed tools to community leaders so they could do the necessary work.
Since 2012, he has owned an independent consulting firm, continuing his work in Central
Texas, but also working throughout the U.S. Projects he has been involved with have led to
meaningful change in communities resulting in sustainable economic vitality built on a solid
foundation of community development. He recognizes the importance of identifying community
values and supporting development that reflects those values.
Russell Weaver, PhD
Russell Weaver, PhD, is an assistant professor in the Department of Geography at Texas
State University, where he teaches courses in community planning, community design, and
quantitative data analysis. His research leverages public sector, commercial, and community-
based data to study neighborhood change, development, and social dynamics at various
geographic scales, and to empirically evaluate local program and policy interventions. He has
published more than two dozen theoretical and empirical articles in peer-reviewed journals and
edited volumes, and he is the primary author of the 2016 book Shrinking Cities: Understanding
Urban Decline in the United States.
Within a community geography framework, many of Russell’s current projects are aimed
at forming data-driven action research collaborations with diverse community institutions. Prior
to entering academia, Russell worked in various senior level positions with state, local, and
nonprofit organizations in the areas of community development and social justice. He holds a
PhD in Geography and a Master’s degree in Economics from the State University of New York
(SUNY) at Buffalo, and a B.S. in Economics from Shippensburg University (Pennsylvania).
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Chris Holtkamp, AICP
SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS •
Horseshoe Bay Comprehensive Plan (Horseshoe Bay, TX)
Dripping Springs Comprehensive Plan and Update (Dripping Springs, TX)
Port Lavaca Demographic and Economic Profile and Future Land Use Plan (Port Lavaca, TX)
Windsor Mill Redevelopment Feasibility Study (Windsor, CO)
Bay City Comprehensive Plan (Bay City, TX)
Fredericksburg Comprehensive Plan Update (Fredericksburg, TX)
Housing Assessment for Venango County (Venango County, PA)
Burnet County Strategic Plan
Land Development Code (City of Jarrell, TX)
Growth Projection and GIS Mapping (Hill Country Alliance, TX)
Envision Brenham Comprehensive Plan (City of Brenham, TX)
Zoning Ordinance (City of Palacios, TX)
EXPERIENCE
Mr. Holtkamp began his career working with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) at the City
of Loveland, Colorado. In 1999 he returned to Austin as a GIS Analyst with LCRA, then
transferred to the Community and Economic Development department and began work in
community planning.
Since 2001 Mr. Holtkamp has led the development of comprehensive plans for cities throughout
Central Texas. These plans address land use, economic development, housing, downtown
revitalization, historic preservation, and community development. The plans are based on a
thorough community input process to ensure they reflect the priorities and concerns of the
citizens.
Since leaving LCRA, his practice has expanded outside of Texas. He has participated in housing
analyses for communities in Virginia, New York, and Pennsylvania. He recently completed a
project in Windsor, Colorado planning the redevelopment of an historic mill that will serve as a
mixed use destination for the town.
In addition to his planning experience, Mr. Holtkamp has been involved with many economic
development projects including Target Industry Analyses, business recruitment training, tourism
assessments, and strategic planning. These projects provide communities with the information
they need to develop sustainable local economies.
EDUCATION
Master of Arts in Geography, University of Denver, 1997
Bachelor of Arts, Geography, University of Texas at Austin, 1995
AFFILIATIONS
American Institute of Certified Planners (AICP Member)
Texas Chapter of the American Planning Association (Director)
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Russell Weaver, PhD
RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS •
Book
Weaver, R., S. Bagchi-Sen, J. Knight, & A. Frazier. (2016). Shrinking cities: understanding shrinkage
and decline in the United States, 1st edition. New York: Routledge.
Sample Refereed Articles and Book Chapters
Weaver, R. and J. Knight. (2017). Analysis of a multipronged community development initiative
in two distressed neighbourhoods. Community Development Journal [accepted, in press].
Weaver, R. (2016). Palliative planning in an American shrinking city - some thoughts and
preliminary policy analysis. Community Development. [advance version available online]
Weaver, R. (Forthcoming). Growth, development, and housing stock quality in the
administrative Appalachian region. In Rural Housing, edited by Don Albrecht, Scott
Loveridge, Stephan Goetz, and Rachel Wellborn. New York: Routledge.
Weaver, R. and S. Bagchi-Sen. (2014). Evolutionary analysis of neighborhood decline using
multilevel selection theory. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 104(4): 765-783.
Weaver, R. (2013). Re-framing the urban blight problem with trans-disciplinary insights from
ecological economics. Ecological Economics, 90: 168-176.
Weaver, R. and S. Bagchi-Sen. (2013). Spatial analysis of urban decline: the geography of blight.
Applied Geography, 40: 61-70.
EXPERIENCE
Dr. Weaver began his career in Buffalo, New York as a senior legislative staff member for a city
council member. The issue portfolio that he managed included land use, housing, and community
development. In addition, Dr. Weaver served as a registered Buffalo City Housing Court Liaison,
a role for which he attended weekly housing court hearings to advocate on behalf of community
groups and stakeholders in the district that he represented. During his employment in local
government, Dr. Weaver was also an adjunct lecturer in microeconomics and quantitative
methods at two institutions of higher education in New York State.
In 2011, Dr. Weaver relocated to the Washington, DC region, where he served as the in-house
Social Scientist for the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. There he produced
original research and analysis to support programmatic initiatives and federal litigation related
to social justice and civil rights issues. He was especially responsible for designing and carrying
out policy analyses using a combination of GIS tools and spatial statistical methods.
Since 2013, Dr. Weaver has worked as a full time faculty member in higher education. From 2013-
2014 he was a Visiting Professor of GIS and spatial analysis at the University of Redlands in
California. In August of 2014, he joined the faculty at Texas State University in San Marcos as a
tenure track Assistant Professor of Geography. He currently teaches courses in community
planning and design, community geography, and quantitative methods.
EDUCATION
Ph.D., Geography, The State University of New York at Buffalo, 2012
M.A., Economics, The State University of New York at Buffalo, 2010
B.S., Economics, Shippensburg University, 2006
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References
Port Lavaca Demographic and Economic Profile and Future Land Use Plan
Scotty Jones, Finance Director
202 North Virginia
Port Lavaca, TX 77979
sjones@portlavaca.org
Population: 12,734
Project Date: 01/15 – 05/15
Demographic and Economic Profile and Future Land Use Plan
Vision Bay City 2040 Comprehensive Plan
William Cornman, City Council Member, City of Bay City
1901 Fifth Street
Bay City, TX 77414
979-323-1626
wgcornman@sbcglobal.net
Population: 17,635
Project Date: 03/14 – 11/14
Comprehensive Plan Development
Dripping Springs Comprehensive Plan Update
Ginger Faught, Assistant City Administrator
511 Mercer ST
Dripping Springs, TX 78620
512-858-4725
gfaught@cityofdrippingsprings.com
Population: 1,905
Project Date: 03/16 – 11/16
Comprehensive Plan Update
City of Horseshoe Bay Comprehensive Plan Update
Stan Farmer, City Manager
City of Horseshoe Bay
1 Community Drive
Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657
sfarmer@horseshoe-bay-tx.gov
Population: 3,749
Project Date: 03/16 – 10/16
Comprehensive Plan Update
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City of La Grange Demographic and Economic Profile
Scott Byler, Community and Economic Development Director
City of La Grange
155 E. Colorado St.
La Grange, TX 78945
979-968-8701
sbyler@cityoflg.com
Population: 4,675
Project Date: 01/16 – 03/16
Demographic and Economic Profile
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Outline of Services
Existing Information Review
The initial task for our team will be to schedule a work session with the Planning Board
and City staff. The session will be aimed at receiving approval for our proposed scope of work
and timeline, and to begin a general overview of documents, histories, issues, and related matters.
The Planning Board will be our primary resource and review committee that we will collaborate
with throughout the project to ensure the final product meets community expectations.
Bozeman has a range of existing plans and documents that will serve as a foundation for
our project. We will begin our work with an extensive review of these documents, as well as active
planning documents that have been created for larger geographic regions of which Bozeman is a
part. This review will provide us with a starting point for understanding existing issues and
opportunities that might carry forward from prior efforts. The review will also provide us with a
thorough understanding of what projects have been completed from these plans and those currently
in progress.
We will also review plans from adjoining communities, Montana State University, and
other entities that may influence activities in and around Bozeman. This will minimize potential
conflicts that may arise as Bozeman continues to grow. We will work to ensure proposed land use
and development within Bozeman are complementary to expected uses in adjoining areas.
Site Assessment
During the first weeks of the project, we will conduct a detailed citywide assessment that
focuses on opportunities, constraints, and existing conditions. Essentially, we will create a detailed
a “outsiders” view of Bozeman to share with community stakeholders, so they can see what the
community looks like on paper. Such documents serve as excellent conversation starters to
catalyze robust participation in public engagement meetings. Specifically, they offer stakeholders
the ability to refute perceptions created by data, and therefore to provide planners with crucial, but
latent, bits of local knowledge. In this way, our initial assessment will furnish our team with
knowledge of existing conditions. That assessment, complete with feedback from our community
partners, will then act as a guide for the remainder of our work. Moreover, in using the initial
assessment as an engagement tool, we expect to cultivate healthy, trusting, and collaborative
relationships with local stakeholders—which are essential for a plan’s long term success.
Demographic and Economic Analysis
A plan cannot be successful if it is based on faulty data. It is critical to have accurate
information on existing conditions as well as responsible projections to have an understanding of
what the community may look like in the future. A thorough demographic and economic analysis
will be a fundamental part of the plan and will include summaries of existing conditions, as well
as projections, for population and households, labor force participation rates and access to
employment, types and extent of employment opportunities in the commuting area, commuting
choices, and household income, among other variables. These projections will be discussed, and
their impacts on the community analyzed, as part of the planning process.
Future Land Use Analysis
Situated on these demographic and socioeconomic foundations, a detailed land use
analysis will investigate and communicate trends in development in and around Bozeman,
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focusing on expected growth in commercial and residential uses. We will develop an inventory
of expected uses over time that will include estimates of the amount of land that should be
dedicated to each land use to meet expected growth. This inventory will be the foundation for the
scenarios we will develop, each providing a different vision for how to accommodate expected
growth in and around Bozeman. These scenarios will incorporate goals and values already
defined in existing plans, but will provide an opportunity to define a new vision for Bozeman
based on the new analysis developed.
The scenarios will be presented to the Planning Board and City Staff for review before
being presented to the public for their review and feedback. This public engagement process will
allow us to determine which scenario is most supported by the residents of Bozeman. Once a
desired scenario has been identified, we will work with the Planning Board and City staff to
develop the scenario in greater detail and identify the strategies to implement the desired vision.
Strategies and Recommendations
Once the vision for future development has been defined, we will develop a series of
recommendations to ensure that vision is achieved. This may include recommendations to revise
development ordinances and policies to ensure development conforms to expectations. There
may also be an opportunity to discuss what, if any, incentives the City may consider offering to
promote desired development. We will also provide recommendations for improvements to city
infrastructure and utilities to ensure adequate capacity to serve expected growth. Directing
investments into utilities and transportation infrastructure can be a significant influence on where
and how growth occurs, as developers seek to locate in areas with adequate capacity.
We will also work with Bozeman Public Schools, Montana State University, and
neighboring communities to ensure all entities are coordinating to accommodate expected
growth. This will ensure complementary policies, where possible, and effective communication
is in place to address any challenges that may arise. Bozeman does not exist in a vacuum, growth
in the City and the region must have at least some coordination to minimize issues like
congestion and sprawl. We will work to develop a plan that promotes community values and
ensures future development provides for sustained economic vitality, while protecting local
identity and heritage.
Deliverables
Deliverables will include a detailed Demographic and Economic Profile of Bozeman and
the region that provides information on existing and expected characteristics of the local
population and economy. There will be a thorough Land Use Analysis that provides details of
expected growth and an inventory of prospective land uses to accommodate that growth. This
will include a preferred development scenario that maps where new development should occur,
including recommendations for utility and transportation infrastructure to serve desired
development patterns. Finally, we will provide strategies and recommendations to achieve the
desired development pattern that will inform City action to implement the plan.
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Project Schedule
Month 1
Kick Off Meeting
Site Assessment
Existing Information Review
Month 2
Demographic and Economic Analysis
Future Land Use Analysis
Month 3
Presentation of Initial Findings to Economic Development Council
Presentation of Initial Findings to Planning Board
Future Land Use Workshop (Scenario Selection)
Month 4
Draft Report Development
Month 5
Presentation of Draft Report to Planning Board
Presentation of Draft Report to City Commission
Development of Final Report
Month 6
Presentation of Final Report to Planning Board
Presentation of Final Report to City Commission
Statement of Non-discrimination – Attachment 1
____________________________________(name of entity submitting) hereby affirms it will
not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, creed, sex, age, marital status, national
origin, or because of actual or perceived sexual orientation, gender identity or disability and
acknowledges and understands the eventual contract will contain a provision prohibiting
discrimination as described above and this prohibition on discrimination shall apply to the hiring
and treatments or proposer’s employees and to all subcontracts.
______________________________________
Name and title of person authorized to sign on behalf of submitter
Holtkamp Planning