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HomeMy WebLinkAboutLCG Proposal for Services_City of Bozeman_01-2017LELAND CONSULTING GROUP People Places Prosperity Revitalizing Downtowns Creating Partnerships Targeting Real Estate Success Shaping Financial Strategies Strengthening Community Enabling Sustainability & Livability Making Cities Work 610 SW Alder Street Suite 1008 Portland Oregon 97205-3611 p 503.222.1600 f 503.222.5078 www.lelandconsulting.com January 27, 2017 Mr. Chris Saunders Policy and Planning Manager CITY OF BOZEMAN 121 North Rouse Avenue Bozeman, Montana 59771 Re: Proposal for Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Dear Mr. Saunders, Leland Consulting Group and Sanderson Stewart are excited to submit our qualifications in response to the City of Bozeman’s Request for Proposals for Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection. We are enthusiastic about this project for many reasons, but especially for its focus on guiding the future growth of Bozeman based on economic development and market trends along with foundational demographic projections. During the course of this contract, we will provide Bozeman with:  The right combination of national experience and local familiarity. While Leland Consulting Group has worked all over the U.S., we are also experienced in Bozeman, with four other projects completed and another currently underway. We will not need to lose valuable time getting up to speed on the issues, the players, and the landscape.  Clear and concise communication both internal to project development and external public engagement. Easy-to-understand infographics will effectively convey complex information, demonstrate how this work ties in with previous, current and future planning efforts, and help in making future decisions.  Streamlined and effective communication as a team. The City will have the benefit of coordinating with a single project manager, ensuring all team member insights and skills are fully integrated into the project.  An exciting, engaging, and fun process. We are committed to fostering lasting personal connections with clients and communities as we deliver clear and effective results. Leland Consulting Group will be the team lead for this project. David Siegel will serve as project manager and the City’s day-to-day contact throughout the process. We hope that the enclosed materials demonstrate our capacity to serve you well. Our team has the capacity to complete the services described in the following pages and is prepared to begin work in February, 2017. Please do not hesitate to contact me at 503.222.1600 or by email at dsiegel@lelandconsulting.com with any questions. Sincerely, LELAND CONSULTING GROUP David Siegel, FAICP Senior Project Manager Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Table of Contents Project Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 Company Description/ Capability ........................................................................................................................ 2 Project Team ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 References ................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Outline of Services .................................................................................................................................................... 10 Cost and Expenses .................................................................................................................................................... 13 Affirmation of Nondiscrimination ........................................................................................................................ 14 Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 1 Project Summary The City of Bozeman Community Development Department will be updating the comprehensive plan and wants to consider significant changes in the community including: an understanding of what is under-served in Bozeman commercially/industrially; where commercial, industrial, and residential building trends are headed nationwide; and how Bozeman fits into the larger trade area. A recommendation for future land inventory by general class (e.g., commercial, industrial) is an important outcome of the work. Bozeman has a rich history of previous and current planning, helping to set the stage for an intentional future. It will be important for the research and analytical work in support of a future comprehensive plan update to both test and be in alignment with the vision, priorities and assumptions that supported and arose from this previous planning work. As effective planning requires community understanding and support, it will be important to communicate how the findings from this project relate to and tie in with previous and upcoming work. There’s a risk of community “planning fatigue” and a feeling of “just another study” – and we propose to meet this head-on through ensuring communication of the context, value, and implications of the work arising from this project. The Leland Consulting Group (LCG) team is strategically aligned to prepare and analyze the necessary data that will help determine the projected future growth of the community tied to specific demographic, economic development, and market conditions. This data will inform both a baseline forecast based on prevailing land demand trends, and a corresponding vision forecast that incorporates strategic and policy goals – both of which will inform the comprehensive plan update. In preparing our project methodology, research, and communications, our team will focus on the key tasks outlined above that are guided by the following values. Custom research. LCG will utilize a variety of data sources including U.S. Census/ACS, Costar (commercial real estate), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), ESRI, Census Longitudinal Employment/Household Dynamics (LEHD), county assessor parcel GIS data and others to develop the foundation of the demographic analysis and land use projection. We recommend supplemental survey and focus group research among workers who have recently moved to Bozeman (see scope-of-work). We will also apply a consideration of rapidly changing preferences regarding housing and employment locations based on our experience with the real estate market. Our unique national and regional perspective will enable us to customize our analysis to Bozeman and the shifting real estate dynamics shaping local and regional community development. Honor distinct values. Every community is unique in its values, development patterns, and vision for growth. Our team has significant experience working with the City of Bozeman and understands the distinct opportunities and challenges facing the community. We are prepared to take that experience and apply it to this project, ensuring it reflects the Bozeman ethos and character. Economic development. As identified in the recently- completed Economic Development Strategy, there are growing industries within Bozeman that have different locational needs. In our recent work with the City, we understand that many of these companies want to be in the central core of the city to be close to their employment base, amenities, and bike routes. In contrast, the manufacturing base may continue to need larger sites on the edges of the city. It is important for this analysis to identify unique demands for industrial site development. In doing so the final study will recognize a variety of employment land needs ranging from large “greenfield” to smaller central core “infill” sites. Communications. The team understands that as part of this process, community and policy decision makers will need to make concerted choices regarding how the community will grow in terms of density and infill balanced with traditional greenfield development. To have effective discussions regarding these policies, clear and straightforward communication tools will be critical. We have included an experienced graphic designer on the team to develop infographics communicating the data assembled as part of the analysis. In addition, we will have “on the ground” local experience, using Sanderson Stewart to facilitate the meaningful face-to-face discussions and meetings necessary in projects such as this. Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 2 Company Description/ Capability Company History Exceptional public and private leaders have bold visions for their downtowns, neighborhoods, employment centers, and cities. Leland Consulting Group helps to refine and realize those visions. Through our work in more than 250 communities across the country, we have helped to shape long-term plans, and to help build the projects that immediately improve residents’ quality of life: thriving downtowns, bustling shopping districts, inviting neighborhoods, and productive employment centers. As urban strategists, our role is to keep the big picture in sight, while simultaneously providing deep expertise in the strategic, market, financial, and economic elements that make projects possible and successful. We recognize that special and economically viable places result not just from one factor, but from the combination of quality design, supportive markets, developer capacity, and financial strength. And during every assignment, we engage the public and private champions essential to rallying support and overcoming obstacles. Leland Consulting Group provides the following services:  Market Research  Demographic Analysis  Market Strategies  Economic Impact Analysis  Implementation Strategies  Development Conceptualization  Negotiation Facilitation  Regulatory Approvals Leland Consulting Group has over 27 years of experience providing real estate and urban planning services to public and private sector clients across the United States. Following are introductions to our partner team members. Sanderson Stewart employs over 60 professional engineers, technical and graphic designers, land surveyors and planners, landscape architects, CADD technicians, and support staff. The firm’s multidisciplinary, design-thinking based approach to community development has earned us not only awards and recognition, but a reputation as trustworthy partners and industry thought-leaders. Sanderson Stewart offers a complete design approach that not only offers more innovative and comprehensive solutions, it also has fewer conflicts and revisions – saving the client time and money. Verity Freebern Design is a Los Angeles-based design and illustration firm, specializing in information design and graphic communication. Founded in Chicago in 1993, VFD has worked with numerous national clients, most recently the State of Colorado Office of the Governor; the non-profit Alliance for Early Success, and Crate & Barrel’s modern home furnishing brand, CB2. Verity’s work has won several design awards and has been published nationally. By way of example, the Alliance for Early Success is a non- profit policy advocacy group focused on improving outcomes for children from birth to age eight. The Alliance asked VFD to create a one-page graphic that conveyed their goal of supporting policies that integrate health, family support, and education. Playing off the Alliance’s logo and colorways, VFD created icons and used clean typography to LELAND CONSULTING GROUP Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 3 simply convey the complex concepts at the core of the Alliance’s mission. The Alliance has the graphic available for download on their website (www.earlysuccess.org) and uses it as a one-page printed handout to explain their policy advocacy goals. Experience and Capacity The LCG team consciously aligned with one another for this project based on prior collaboration and a common commitment to the vitality and sustainable growth of Bozeman. Leland Consulting Group will serve as the lead project consultant based on our expertise with industry analysis, economic development, real estate strategy, and comprehensive planning. LCG has extensive experience with managing multidisciplinary teams of experts and by serving as the main point of contact, communication will be streamlined and effective. The City will benefit from coordinating with only one project manager that ensures all team member insights and skills are fully integrated into the project. Our team’s overarching goal is to effectively engage City staff as we gather the right data, perform the analysis that helps convey the implications of key assumptions and scenarios, and communicate the results in a clear and effective manner. Some of the key elements of our approach include: Involve people. LCG is committed to targeted and meaningful input from stakeholders to augment and refine data research. This qualitative input distinguishes the LCG approach to demographic analysis beyond a modeling exercise that applies similar assumptions to all communities. Our public engagement process will build on prior efforts pertaining to the city strategic plan and economic development strategy. Ongoing communication. The LCG team fully appreciates the need to move this project forward as quickly and efficiently as possible. It is our philosophy that consistent and proactive communication is the most effective tool to ensure this objective. David Siegel, serving as project manager and the City’s main point of contact for the team, keeps the team on task, assures the client that progress is underway, ensures there are “no surprises,” and addresses issues early on. Tell stories through visuals and narrative. The LCG team takes pride in creating products that tell a story through compelling visuals and the narrative itself. We will produce maps and infographics that help people to visualize opportunity and the choices that must be made in how a community wants to grow. Current and Recent Work LCG has a breadth of experience when it comes to assisting clients with preparing demographic analyses in support of comprehensive and strategic plans. Representative current or recently completed work includes:  Employment area master plan for the City of Beaverton, Oregon. LCG is leading a multidisciplinary team to evaluate current conditions of an underutilized industrial area within the central city core. With substantial input from the existing employers, the final plan will include specific action items for staff and public improvement projects constructed with urban renewal or grant funding that catalyze future redevelopment for the entire district.  Economic development strategy and action plan for the City of Florence, Oregon. The strategy aligns local demographics and economic trends with the urban renewal district redevelopment opportunities along the city’s main corridor. Specific sites with property owner support were evaluated for redevelopment opportunities that will support desired economic development outcomes.  District planning initiative for the City of Cheyenne, Wyoming. LCG recently supported a team of planners, architects, and environmental engineers to simultaneously solve some of the district’s significant brownfield and flooding challenges by revitalizing it with new housing, businesses, and commercial uses. Working with property owners and developers, LCG identified catalyst development projects, assessing their market and economic feasibility, and identifying strategic actions and public-private partnerships that will bring them to fruition.  LCG recently worked with the City of Bozeman on an economic development strategy update that provides our team with an in-depth understanding of site redevelopment needs that could have a meaningful impact on fostering economic development. Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 4 In the Reference section of this proposal (page 8), additional project examples are provided regarding our proven track record in successful project management, detailed and insightful economic, demographic, and market analyses, and the development of fact-supported findings and recommendations. As previously mentioned, our team has the capacity to complete the services described below starting in February, 2017. Current Leland Consulting Group Clients  Capital City Development Corporation, Boise, Idaho  Columbia River Economic Development Council, Washington  City of Ankeny, Iowa  City of Beaverton, Oregon  City of Bellevue, Washington  City of Bend, Oregon  City of Bozeman, Montana  City of Covina, California  City of Dundee, Oregon  City of Fairview, Oregon  City of Independence, Oregon  City of Johnston, Iowa  City of King City, Oregon  City of Lake Stevens, Washington  City of Newberg, Oregon  City of North Bend, Oregon  City of Portland, Oregon  City of Renton, Washington  City of Roswell, New Mexico  City of Salem, Oregon  City of Sheridan, Wyoming  City of Tigard, Oregon  City of West Linn, Oregon  City of Wilsonville, Oregon  City of Wood Village, Oregon  Lane County, Oregon  Metro Regional Government, Oregon  Multnomah County, Oregon  NW Natural (private utility), Oregon  Oregon Department of Transportation  Port of Vancouver USA, Washington  Portland Development Commission, Oregon  The Partnership for Economic Development in Douglas County, Oregon  Utah Department of Transportation  Utah Transit Authority “Communication was great, products delivered on time, accepted constructive feedback, was open to new ideas, jumped in to understand community issues and desires, finished products were high quality.” Doug Rux Community Development Director City of Newberg, Oregon January 2017 Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 5 Project Team David Siegel, FAICP, Senior Project Manager, Leland Consulting Group David Siegel has 40 years of experience as an award-winning professional planner and manager for public and private sector planning and public works agencies, working on public and private sector projects locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally. He provides innovative, collaborative, and outcomes-based planning and communications expertise on land use, transportation, visioning and strategic planning, community development, and infrastructure projects. He has led or participated in the creation of countless comprehensive land use plans, community plans, downtown and town center plans, and long-range planning and policy studies, each being given its own unique approach. This breadth of experience, in conjunction with his background in visioning, communications, public involvement, and consensus- building, provides clients with a deep and diverse understanding of community issues and planning principles. Relevant Project Management and Planning Experience  Comprehensive Plan Update and Economic Development Strategy, Monroe, Washington  West Salem Business District Development Action Plan, Salem, Oregon  Main Avenue Master Plan, Twin Falls, Idaho  Regional Growth Strategies, Southern Nevada Regional Planning Coalition  Downtown Improvement Plan, Newberg, Oregon  Urban Growth Boundary Remand Project, Bend, Oregon  Halsey Corridor Economic Development Plan, Fairview, Oregon  Downtown Action Plan, Salem, Oregon  Northeast Gateway Plan, McMinnville, Oregon  Central Area Downtown Plan, Bend, Oregon  Urban Renewal Advance: A Strategic Plan for Action, Brighton, Colorado  Aloha-Reedville Study and Community Livability Plan, Washington County, Oregon Education and Accreditation  Ohio State University: Master of City and Regional Planning  Wittenberg University: Bachelor of Arts, Political Science and Urban Studies Ted Kamp, Senior Associate, Leland Consulting Group Ted Kamp provides complex analytical services in support of strategic land use decisions for public planners and private developers. Drawing on expertise in GIS, economic, market and demographic analysis, he incorporates user-friendly information design to convey critical market intelligence to stakeholders. His work spans a variety of development contexts including urban renewal, suburban revitalization, comprehensive planning and transit-oriented development, with a focus on locales across the central and western US. Ted taught the Urban Market Analysis course for planning graduate students at the University of Colorado-Denver for five years and has focused on serving public and private sector clients with market, economic, and demographic analyses for the past 16 years. Relevant Demographic, Economic, and Market Analysis Project Experience  Comprehensive Plan Update, Brighton, Colorado  Unified Development Code Update, Bozeman, Montana  Halsey Corridor Economic Development Plan, Fairview, Oregon  Comprehensive Plan, Ankeny, Iowa  Comprehensive Plan Update and Development Code Rewrite, Albuquerque, New Mexico  Comprehensive Plan Update and Economic Development Strategy, Casper, Wyoming  Growth Plan Amendment and Zone Change, Bozeman, Montana  Economic Development Plan, Eagle, Idaho  Northwest Growth Area Plan, Coralville, Iowa  West Edge Planning Initiative, Cheyenne, Wyoming  Buildable Lands Inventory, Redmond, Oregon  Comprehensive Plan Update, Twin Falls, Idaho Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 6 Education and Accreditation  University of Colorado: Master of Urban and Regional Planning, PhD coursework  University of Arizona: Master of Science, Marketing (Consumer Behavior Concentration)  University of Oklahoma: Bachelor in Business Administration (with honors) Alisa Pyszka, Senior Associate, Leland Consulting Group Building off her belief that every community possesses compelling strengths, Alisa Pyszka works with clients to realize their unique advantage and a vision that can be amplified with strategic investments. With extensive experience working for both public agencies and private developers, Alisa delivers a range of technical and strategic skills that enable great urban places to get built. Her emphasis is on urban corridors, downtown revitalization, employment districts, and public-private partnerships. Alisa keeps the focus of projects on implementation, bringing to bear tools and resources from her 16 years of urban planning, real estate, and economic development experience. Alisa most recently served as the VP of Recruitment for Greater Portland Inc, a regional nonprofit economic development organization that provides support and services to companies seeking to relocate or expand in the greater Portland area. In this role, Alisa developed strategic insights regarding the most important attributes a community and region must have to attract business, as well as how to successfully message these attributes to decision makers. Relevant Project Experience  Midtown Action Plan, Bozeman, Montana  Economic Development Plan Update, Bozeman, Montana  Comprehensive Plan Update, Twin Falls, Idaho  Western Avenue Employment Area Master Plan, Beaverton, Oregon  Downtown Development Strategy, Florence, Oregon  Growth Plan Amendment and Zone Change, Bozeman, Montana  Comprehensive Plan Update and Development Code Rewrite, Albuquerque, New Mexico  Comprehensive Plan Update and Economic Development Strategy, Casper, Wyoming  West Edge Planning Initiative, Cheyenne, Wyoming Education and Accreditation  University of Kansas: Master of Urban and Regional Planning  Miami University: Bachelor of Arts, History  U.S. Green Building Council: LEED AP certification Lauren Waterton, AICP, Senior Planner, Sanderson Stewart As a Senior Planner and Manager of the Community Design Studio, Lauren Waterton’s work focuses on community planning, revitalization studies, and land development projects. With 20 years of professional experience, Lauren focuses on creating plans and environments that support communities and the people that live there. Skilled at solving complex problems, Lauren has experience working in collaborative environments and bringing diverse people together to help achieve a common goal. She has extensive experience in a wide range of planning projects including master planning, urban renewal and redevelopment, design review, and real estate development. Prior to Sanderson Stewart, Lauren served as the Director of Planning at American Land Development in Bozeman, Montana. Her work in Colorado includes Principal of UrbanPlan,inc., Director of Design Review for Vail Resorts, and Town Planner for the Town of Vail. Relevant Project Experience  Triangle Planning Study, Gallatin County, Montana  Lockwood Targeted Economic Development District, Yellowstone County, Montana  Midtown Urban Renewal District Term Contract, Bozeman, Montana  Midtown Action Plan, Bozeman, Montana  Growth Policy Update and Downtown Master Plan, Dillon, Montana Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 7  Downtown Master Plan, Anaconda, Montana  Development Review Term Contract, Bozeman, Montana Education and Accreditation  Portland State University: Master of Urban and Regional Planning  Rhodes College: Bachelor of Arts in Urban Studies  American Institute of Certified Planners Verity Freebern, Designer/Illustrator Verity Freebern is a designer, illustrator and artist, and is the founder and principal of Verity Freebern Design. Verity has focused primarily on graphic design and brand identity development in her professional life, but has also worked on a wide range illustration, pattern design, packaging, product design and creative writing projects. Verity co-founded a children’s clothing company called Grow Inc.; developed a brand identity and product/package design for a new line of products to be sold nationally at Babies ‘R Us stores; created a line of innovative breastfeeding support products; and has designed textiles, dinnerware and bath products for CB2 stores nationwide. She has a studio in downtown Los Angeles, California. Representative Clients  State of Colorado Office of the Governor  The Alliance for Early Success  Crate&Barrel/CB2  Basic Comfort, Inc./Summer Infant  Toys ‘R Us/Babies ‘R Us  The Rocky Mountain Childrens’ Law Center  The National Ski Patrol  The Orton Family Foundation  Thomson Media  Leo Burnett Company  LaSalle National Bank  The City of Chicago Department of Environment  The American Society of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery Education and Accreditation  Oklahoma State University: Bachelor of Arts in Graphic Design/Creative Writing and post-graduate studies in Visual Communication  Art Center College of Design, Pasadena: Illustration Specific Assignments While all team members will collaborate and share their insights regarding the overall project, and we will benefit and draw from the team’s deep and collective knowledge of the area, specific assignments by key team member is outlined as follows: Key Staff and Specific Assignments David Siegel, Leland Consulting Group: Project management, public engagement Ted Kamp, Leland Consulting Group: Data research and analysis Alisa Pyszka, Leland Consulting Group: Economic development issues and engagement Lauren Waterton, Sanderson Stewart: Land use planning policy, public engagement Verity Freebern, Graphic Designer: Infographics and public engagement communications Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 8 References Leland Consulting Group References City of Brighton, Colorado Contact: Aja Tibbs, Long Range/Historic Preservation Planner, 303.655.2015, atibbs@brightonco.gov and/or Holly Prather, Community Development Director, 303.655.2059, hprather@brightonco.gov Population of jurisdiction: 35,719 (2013) Number of employees: approximately 300 Project start/completion date: 07/15 – 02/16 Project summary: Comprehensive Plan Update A suburb in the far northeast quadrant of the Denver metro area, Brighton struggled to keep up with double-digit annual growth spanning from the late 1990s up until the housing boom and crash of the mid-2000s. Their comprehensive planning challenges involved coping with over-reaching infrastructure expansion in the face of unusually slow post-recession recovery. Leland Consulting Group helped to organized an update to a 2002 plan draft with newly right-sized absorption projections, policy recommendations designed to refocus growth around existing investments, and extensive reorganization of a scattered and often redundant existing set of economic goals and policies. City of Bozeman, Montana Contact: Brit Fontenot, Director of Economic Development, 406.582.2258, bfontenot@bozeman.net Population of jurisdiction: 39,860 (2013) Number of employees: approximately 400 Project start/completion date: 06/16 – 11/16 Project summary: Economic Development Strategy Update LCG recently worked with City staff and local stakeholders to determine Bozeman's distinct industry strengths and opportunities to grow the economic base. As a unique community with significant growth, this strategy must align the need to strategically grow industry balanced with increasing "no growth" sentiments. LCG prepared the overall vision and the detailed, prioritized action plan with clear metrics needed to achieve the vision. City of Newberg, Oregon Contact: Doug Rux, Community Development Director, 503.537.1212, doug.rux@newbergoregon.gov Population of jurisdiction: 22,508 (2013) Number of employees: approximately 145 Project start/completion date: 08/15 – 01/17 Project summary: Downtown Improvement Plan LCG just delivered a master plan and incremental implementation strategy to guide future development and redevelopment within downtown Newberg, the gateway to Oregon’s wine country. As project manager, LCG’s David Siegel served as lead planner and facilitator for community engagement. Ted Kamp completed the critical demographic, employment and market analysis services providing the foundation for key policy choices and identification of feasible land uses and catalytic development opportunities. City of Ankeny, Iowa Contact: Eric Jensen, Planning and Building Director, 515.963.3547, ejensen@ankenyiowa.gov Population of jurisdiction: 56,764 (2015) Number of employees: approximately 400 Project start/completion date: 08/16 – current Project summary: Comprehensive Plan Update Ankeny’s population has more than doubled since 2000, making it one of the fastest-growing cities in the nation. LCG’s role in this comprehensive plan update has included technical review of demographic projection models, market analysis across all land use types, and coordination with economic development staff to align growth policies with goals for industry attraction and jobs/housing balance. With few constraints to north- and eastward growth, one strategic challenge is how to leverage existing assets in central Ankeny (including a regional airport and major community college) in the face of fringe growth pressures. Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 9 Sanderson Stewart References City of Bozeman, Montana Contact: David Fine, Economic Development Department, 406.582.2973, dfine@bozeman.net Population of jurisdiction: 39,860 (2013) Number of employees: approximately 400 Project start/completion date: 02/16 – current Project summary: Midtown Urban Renewal District The Midtown Urban Renewal District is actively working to promote economic development along the North 7th Avenue corridor within Bozeman. Sanderson Stewart is assisting the District Board and City staff in completing projects that will aid in area redevelopment, including design of multiuse paths that will connect with the existing trail system, preparation of a master plan for the Westlake BMX park, conducting a design charrette to develop concepts for a festival street within the District. The festival street will provide a venue for outdoor events, as well as enhance development of adjacent businesses. Gallatin County, Montana Contact: Sean O’Callaghan, Director of Planning and Community Development, 406.582.3130, sean.ocallaghan.gallatin.mt.gov Population of jurisdiction: 100,739 (2015) Number of employees: approximately 500 Project start/completion date: 01/13 – 09/13 Project summary: Triangle Planning Study Sanderson Stewart assisted the Cites of Bozeman and Belgrade and Gallatin County in developing recommendations to address infrastructure, land use, and public services necessary to keep up with the growth within the area known as the Triangle. Using three GIS-based future growth scenarios developed by stakeholder groups and Montana State University graduate students, Sanderson Stewart analyzed the growth policies with regard to growth implications on demographics, land use policies, current infrastructure and transportation infrastructure, and made recommendations regarding policy and intergovernmental cooperation actions in order to develop regional planning coordination. Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 10 Outline of Services A unique approach. Bozeman is a unique assembly of people and places that also happens to be a finite, manageable geography. That combination does not cry out for a forecasting approach based around a turnkey, nationally-calibrated model. Given this, Bozeman can afford a more human approach to predicting and guiding its demographic trajectory. Producing reliable, “best-practices” numerical projections from the region (county) down to the small area level is a necessary starting point, but doesn’t require a “black box” model to develop and refine them. For demographic forecasting to be successful at the policy and action level, it should go beyond just the usual processing of data inputs (census estimates, cohort survival/natural growth modeling, migration trends, etc.), and be designed up-front to give appropriate voice to “softer” human insights and wisdom. In addition to stakeholder, staff, and council interviews, one such input could be a brief survey of people who have recently moved to Bozeman (ideally recruited from a cooperative local employer) with follow-up focus group discussions among a willing subset. By learning the “stories” surrounding decisions to move – we can gain insights into what to encourage, highlight or change about Bozeman through land use policy and public investments. After arriving at realistic, defensible regional growth expectations), Bozeman can produce two distinct sets of small area forecasts: 1. A more historical trend and land availability-driven baseline forecast, and 2. A vision forecast, still adhering to regional controls, but made to reflect and advance policy goals and strategic economic development input. This approach is conveyed in the figure below. We envision the preliminary scope of work for the economic and demographic analysis will consist of five distinct, key tasks that are outlined below. Throughout the entire project, the LCG team will overlap tasks and timelines where appropriate to maximize efficiencies. We are showing the tasks in a distinct linear manner to clearly convey objectives, milestones, and deliverables. A sixth task, Project Management, has been added to ensure the project is well-coordinated, that project reports are provided on a regularly-scheduled basis, and to ensure that there are “no surprises.” Forecasting ApproachRegionSmall Areas CONTROL TOTAL Total Expected Growth PopulationHouseholdsEmployment VISION Desired growth BASELINETrended growth QuantitativeTwo Sets of Small Area Forecasts QualitativeInputs and Guidance Historical Growth Current Estimates National & Regional Trends Cohort Survival (Natural Increase) Migration Trends Growth by Industry Neighborhood Compatibility Council VisionSurvey Research Stakeholder Conversations NegotiationEconomic Development Goals Existing Plans Zoning Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 11 City of Bozeman Roles LCG is anticipating a collaborative, team-oriented relationship with the City of Bozeman. While this type of working relationship results in the most successful projects, it will also require some staff time and effort from the City. Specifically, this proposal and budget assume the following (negotiable) contributions from the City of Bozeman. As part of this task, the City and its project partners are anticipated to have the following responsibilities:  Provide key contacts with the City and other public and private sector agencies that can assist with data collection.  Transfer relevant GIS files to the LCG team.  Collaborate with LCG to identify recent under construction, planned, and proposed development projects.  Assist with trip logistics, particularly reserving meeting rooms and contacting stakeholders for targeted public outreach meetings.  When reviewing draft products or deliverables, the City and its planning partners will provide LCG with one consolidated set of non-conflicting comments to help the project team expeditiously undertake any necessary revisions. Task 1: Project Kick-Off Upon notice to proceed, we will work with the Bozeman project manage to finalize a project scope, timeline, and budget prior to making our first site visit. During this time, we will identify relevant background materials and assemble them for review by the entire project team. We will also use this time to set up an online project management site to share materials, schedules, and team discussions. We will also conduct preliminary demographic research to come prepared for the kickoff trip. LCG respects and appreciates proactive client communication. We will provide project management reports every other week via email outlining the following subjects: Recently Performed Work; Upcoming Tasks; Upcoming Milestones; Scope and Schedule Issues; and Issues to Be Aware Of. Deliverables:  Finalize scope, budget and schedule and review with staff.  Preliminary demographic research.  Introductory meeting with the Planning Board to discuss and describe the project methodology and application of outcomes.  Summary of event and key takeaways. Task 2: Preliminary Research and Findings LCG will review multiple data sources to develop preliminary research and findings. These range from federal sources such as US Census/ACS demographics, Census LEHD data on workforce flows and BEA jobs/industry information, to state and local sources such as QCEW point-level jobs data and county assessor parcel records. In all cases, both geographic and tabular data analysis will contribute to understanding current conditions and trend expectations. With parcel level land supply and land use/zoning designations as capacity parameters, LCG will use cohort survival modeling (“natural” growth based on sex, age, fertility and death rates) combined with migration pattern expectations to arrive at baseline growth projections for small area geographies. Additional primary research in the form of surveys and focus groups among recently moved Bozeman workers is recommended to complement the public-source data and stakeholder input. It will be beneficial to know what triggered their decisions, beyond those factors that are commonly assumed (outdoor recreation opportunities, etc.). In addition, the team will review and consider additional current research for the Transportation Management Plan, Communitywide Strategic Plan, and Economic Development Strategy to inform preliminary recommendations regarding findings. Deliverables:  Preliminary research and findings presentation, including baseline small area forecasts and preliminary recommendations for a set of vision forecasts.  Video conference with staff to review initial findings and preliminary recommendations.  Video conference with staff to review draft presentation. Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 12  Presentation of initial findings to the Economic Development Council (appointed citizen board) (This meeting will be held with Sanderson Stewart attending in person and video conference with LCG).  Presentation of initial findings to the Planning Board in person by LCG. Task 3: Public Engagement LCG understands that the Demographic Analysis Report will serve as an important foundation for City staff to determine future land use designations and patterns to support the desired growth of the community. To support this foundation, it is important to garner meaningful public engagement regarding future development patterns and the trade-offs and choices required to make those choices. Throughout the this project, LCG will develop clear and concise communication tools and methods for outreach. This work will consciously build off the outreach already completed with the Transportation Management Plan, Communitywide Strategic Plan, and Economic Development Strategy. We propose to develop up to 10 “infographics” – representations of complex information in a graphic format designed to make the data easily understandable at a glance – helping to convey key findings and support identifying potential implications associated with the findings. Note: As an optional task, the City may wish for LCG to provide one or more additional graphic and narrative communications pieces or articles for use on the City’s website or other venues for informing the public and other audiences. This can be discussed at the time of final scope negotiation. Deliverables:  Up to 10 Infographics summarizing key data findings.  Public engagement plan that could include following methods of outreach. o Two days of strategic stakeholder meetings o Online survey o Neighborhood meetings o Prepared interview with local newspaper Task 4: Draft Report and Recommendations Based on all information derived in Tasks 2 and 3, LCG will prepare a draft report and recommendations regarding future land use needs with clearly stated assumptions, findings, and implications. Deliverables:  Draft report, including both baseline and refined vision forecast series for small areas.  Video conference call with staff to review report.  Draft presentation.  Video conference call to review presentation.  Presentation of draft report to the City Commission. (In person meeting with LCG team.) Task 5: Final Report Based on feedback in Task 4, LCG will prepare a final report. The document will be well-illustrated and in Word format for easy reproduction. Deliverables:  Final report.  Video conference call with staff to review final report.  Draft presentation.  Video conference call to review presentation.  Presentation of final report to the Planning Board. (In person meeting with LCG team.)  Presentation of final report to the City Commission. (In person meeting with LCG team.) Task 6: Project Management LCG will ensure that project activities are well-coordinated between project team members and the City, that work is error-free and of high quality, and that the project status is reported through regularly scheduled progress reports. Deliverables:  Bi-weekly email progress reports and ongoing project management. Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 13 Schedule Based on the above scope of services, LCG anticipates the following schedule: Cost and Expenses A hard copy of the Leland Consulting Group team budget will be submitted under separate cover per the requirements of the RFP. An electronic version of the budget will be provided upon request. Payment Schedule LCG anticipates monthly billings reflecting work completed against the overall not-to-exceed budget and within the scheduled time frame of the project (February – August 2017). Invoices will include a progress report on services provided during the preceding calendar month. FebruaryE B M E B M E B M E B M E B M E B M Task 1: Project Kick-Off Contract and Schedule ● Initial Research ● Introductory Meeting ● Task 2: Preliminary Research and Findings Additional Research ●●● Prelminary Presentation ● Staff Review ● EDC Presentation ● Planning Board Presentation ●Task 3: Public Engagement Engagement Plan ●● Engagement Process ●●● Task 4: Draft Report and Recommendations Draft Report ●●● Staff Review ● City Commission Presentation ● Task 5: Final Report Final Report ●● Staff Review ● Planning Board Presentation ● City Commission Presentation ● ● Indicates anticipated meetings outlined in the RFP.JulyAugustMarchAprilMayJune Proposal for Services: City of Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection Leland Consulting Group | www.lelandconsulting.com | January 2017 Page 14 Affirmation of Nondiscrimination