HomeMy WebLinkAboutEPS Response
Proposal
Economic and Demographic
Analysis Services in Support of a
Comprehensive Plan Update
Prepared for:
City of Bozeman, MT
Prepared by:
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
in association with
Due Date: January 31, 2017
EPS #173007
January 30, 2017
Ms. Robin Crough
City Clerk
121 North Rouse Ave Suite 202
Bozeman, MT 59771
Subject: Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of
a Comprehensive Plan Update; EPS #173007
Dear Ms. Crough:
Economic & Planning Systems (EPS) is pleased to submit this proposal
to provide an Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support
of a Comprehensive Plan Update for the City of Bozeman.
EPS is a full service economic consulting firm with 45 professionals in
offices in Denver, Colorado and Los Angeles, Oakland, and Sacramento,
California. The firm provides a full range of consulting services in
economic development and strategic planning, land use policy,
transportation planning and policy, real estate economics, and fiscal and
economic impact analysis.
Our key staff assignments for this project are as follows:
Daniel Guimond, Principal will serve as Principal in Charge and project
advisor
Brian Duffany, Vice President will be the project manager and day-to-
day contact
Lauren Waterton, Senior Planner based in Bozeman with Sanderson
Stewart will assist with stakeholder outreach, local insight, and
Montana statutory planning requirements. Lauren is a member of the
Bozeman Planning Board and will therefore not present any material
to any City Board or Commission.
Please accept this proposal as a first draft; we look forward to crafting a
final work plan and schedule that includes your input and refinements.
If we can provide additional information, please feel free to contact us.
Sincerely,
ECONOMIC & PLANNING SYSTEMS, INC.
Daniel R. Guimond Brian L. Duffany
Principal Vice President
Table of Contents
PROJECT SUMMARY....................................................................................................... 1
COMPANY DESCRIPTION/CAPABILITY .................................................................................. 2
PROJECT TEAM ............................................................................................................ 5
REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 8
OUTLINE OF SERVICES ................................................................................................... 9
COST AND EXPENSES .................................................................................................. 13
AFFIRMATION OF NONDISCRIMINATION .............................................................................. 14
Project Summary
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 1 Project Summary
PROJECT SUMMARY
The Bozeman Community Plan was last updated in 2009 during the Great Recession. Several
demographic, economic, and real estate trends that were emerging at that time have become
more pronounced in many urban markets. Market demand and pressure for close-in urban living
driven by roughly 22- to 34-year-olds has grown dramatically. The growth of online retail has
decreased demand for brick-and-mortar space and changed the format of new stores and
restaurants. Much of the growth in retail has been in food, beverage, and entertainment formats.
Technology also seems to be driving changes in the market at an increasing pace. Remote
working and “location neutral businesses” and employees and co-working space are becoming
more common. Also, a broader cross section of industries and institutions relies on broadband for
communication and data needs.
While these trends get a lot of attention, there are still large portions of the residential and
commercial markets that live and work in more conventional development formats, such as
suburban style housing, business parks, and retail centers. This study will make an informed
evaluation and not a “crystal ball prediction” of how much the Bozeman market can be expected
to change in the coming decades in light of these trends.
Bozeman is a complicated community, which makes this study all the more important. It is a
university town, a national park and outdoor recreation gateway, and a retail trade and service
hub for Southwest Montana. As a result, Bozeman has a diverse economy with strong growth in
construction/real estate sectors, retail, tourism, manufacturing, professional services, and health
care totaling 4.1 per year. The City’s focus on quality of place and quality of life is paying off.
The goals of this study are as follows:
Provide Bozeman with an understanding of its future market opportunities and needs from
well documented research based on sound defensible data.
Determine the impacts of the growth and maturing of surrounding communities on the
competitive landscape for housing and commercial development.
Identify land use types and development formats not yet present in Bozeman but likely to be
in demand based on national and similar community trends.
Identify key issues related to the economy, demographics, and development and land use
policy that the Plan should address.
Company Description/
Capability
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 2 Company Description/Capability
COMPANY DESCRIPTION/CAPABILITY
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) is a land economics consulting firm
experienced in the full spectrum of services related to real estate development,
the financing of public infrastructure and government services, land use and
conservation planning, and government organization.
EPS was founded on the principle that real estate development and land use-
related public policy should be built on realistic assessment of market forces and economic
trends, feasible implementation measures, and recognition of public policy objectives, including
provisions for required public facilities and services. The firms’ areas of expertise are as follows:
Real Estate Economics
Public Finance
Land Use and Transportation
Economic Development and Revitalization
Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis
Housing Policy
Public-Private Partnership (P3)
Parks and Open Space Economics
Since 1983 EPS has provided consulting services to hundreds of public- and private-sector clients
in Colorado and throughout the United States. EPS is located in Denver, Colorado, and Los
Angeles, Oakland, and Sacramento, California. EPS clients include cities, counties, special
districts, education and other non-profit institutions, multi-jurisdictional authorities, property
owners, developers, financial institutions, and land use attorneys.
The professional staff of 45 includes specialists in public finance, real estate development, land
use and transportation planning, government organization, and computer applications. The firm
excels in preparing concise analyses that disclose risks and impacts, support decision making,
and provide solutions to real estate development and land use-related problems.
Similar Relevant Experience
planokc Comprehensive Plan Housing and Retail Elements
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Oklahoma City selected EPS to complete the housing and retail elements of its comprehensive
plan, planokc. The purpose of the Housing Plan was to make informed estimates of the amount
and types of housing that are anticipated throughout the city over the next 20 years. The
Housing Plan included recommendations on how to close any identified gaps between projected
supply and demand, especially with respect to compact housing types, and the project will
inform land use policies.
Oklahoma City has experienced significant population growth in the past decade but is losing
retail market share and sales tax to the suburbs. The City therefore sought a proactive plan and
approach to future retail development land use policies. EPS prepared a Retail Plan to guide
future retail development in the City and inform the future land use decisions. As part of the plan
EPS, conducted regional economic and demographic analysis, analyzed regional and city retail
sales trends, and inventoried and evaluated the performance of retail centers across the region.
Economic and Demographic Analysis Services
in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update
January 30, 2017
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 3 Company Description/Capability
EPS then used this analysis to group retail centers into corridors and nodes, including Regional
Centers, Highway Corridors, Arterial Corridors, Community Centers, and more urban
neighborhood districts, or Community Development Revitalization Programs (CDRPs).
Sonoran Institute Smart Growth in Northern Rockies
Colorado, Montana, Idaho
The Sonoran Institute contracted with EPS as the lead consultant to understand the degree of
potential demand for smart growth housing products in rural western regions, specifically
Western Colorado and the Northern Rockies. Smart growth concepts have had good market
traction in many progressive communities located throughout the west.
Some of the key questions addressed include: identifying what segments of the market gravitate
to smart growth products; what degree these segments will grow or contract in the future; and
what might cities or towns do, related to policy, planning, and visioning to better position a
community to increase the amount of smart growth in the future. The study provides guidance to
the Sonoran Institute as it partners with private sector (developers, lenders, brokers, or designers)
and public sector (cities or towns, city councils, BoCC members, and appointed officials).
Housing Affordability Policy Study
Fort Collins, Colorado
The Fort Collins City Council identified affordable housing funding as a priority, but recognized
that its existing development incentives, land use regulations, policy, and funding were not
enough to entice developers to build additional affordable housing. The City engaged EPS to
complete a comprehensive housing affordability policy study with a public process component of
three public stakeholder workshops and Council work sessions. EPS’ recommendations included
quasi-regulatory and non-regulatory solutions, such as the establishment of a public-finance
based incentives policy, a reduction in the minimum house size in the building code, granting of
development review fee waivers for affordable housing projects, reevaluation of marginal capital
expansion and development review fee structure. EPS also determined that under the existing or
foreseeable conditions, an inclusionary housing ordinance and/or commercial/residential linkage
program were infeasible and lacking political support.
Boulder University Hill Market and Feasibility Study
Boulder, Colorado
University Hill (The Hill) is the commercial district adjacent to the University of Colorado-Boulder
campus. The Hill has always been oriented to students but had also served as a commercial node
for the adjacent neighborhoods, which include a significant non-student population. In the recent
past, the commercial offerings in the district have become more and more student oriented and
the traditional neighborhood serving retailers and theatres has gone away. Mixed use private and
student housing has grown. Due to neighborhood concerns, the City put a moratorium on
development pending a plan for the commercial district.
EPS completed a market and feasibility analysis for The Hill. The purpose of the market analysis
was to understand the demand for non-student oriented retail, office uses, and non-student
housing. The analysis identified the challenges in non-student oriented development. EPS also
developed pro forma financial models to test the feasibility of mixed-use buildings, both
rehabilitation and new build, on prototypical sites in the district. The analysis helped inform the
City on the barriers regarding diversifying the use and retail mix on the Hill.
Economic and Demographic Analysis Services
in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update
January 30, 2017
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4 Company Description/Capability
Housing Policy Strategy
Big Sky, Montana
Big Sky is at a critical point in its evolution from an alpine ski resort to a more diversified year-
round resort community. The resort economy is placing development pressure on the community
including the need for a larger workforce. The Big Sky Chamber of Commerce (BSCC) hired EPS
to prepare an economic and demographic analysis within a housing policy strategy. EPS assessed
economic, demographic, income and wage, housing, and affordability conditions, as well as best
practices of regulatory and non-regulatory policy solutions to address the identified challenges.
Recommendations included: participation of the Chamber in an affordable housing demonstration
project; evaluation of the use of Montana’s tax increment for economic development districts for
offsetting public infrastructure costs associated with affordable housing; exploration of a
modified Resort Tax District taxing authority; and the establishment of a non-profit housing
organization.
Comprehensive Plan and Initial Studies
San Antonio, Texas
The Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization has forecast that the City of San Antonio will
grow by half a million households and jobs by 2040. In order to facilitate this amount of growth,
the City of San Antonio needed to document the City’s capacity for growth, market trends by
sub-region, and demand for infill and redevelopment. The City hired EPS to complete three
studies to inform their comprehensive planning effort. The three components of the project
included an infill development capacity study (component 1), a future economic opportunities
analysis and jobs and housing market demand study (component 2), and a fiscal impact analysis
of growth scenarios (component 3). The findings from components 1 and 2 were used to create a
market based growth forecast for the City of San Antonio, which was used by the Alamo Area
MPO for its metro-wide growth forecasts. The Initial Studies served as the background technical
analysis used to develop policy directives within the Comprehensive Plan.
Denver Retail Opportunities Study
Denver, Colorado
The City’s Structural Financial Task Force identified a strong retail sector as essential to its fiscal
health, and recommended the City develop a more comprehensive program to deliver retail
growth. The City engaged EPS to complete a comprehensive study to identify the opportunities
and challenges to retail growth and to provide recommendations regarding a retail development,
marketing, and recruitment program. City administrators used the study recommendations to
help formulate an enhanced retail strategic plan adopted in 2013.
From humble beginnings in a garage in 1969, Sanderson Stewart has
followed the core purpose “To Plan and Design Enduring Communities,” to
become a regional, award winning, community development services firm.
Today, Sanderson Stewart employs over 60 professional engineers, technical and graphic
designers, land surveyors and planners, landscape architects, CADD technicians, and support
staff. The firm’s multi-disciplinary, design-thinking based approach to community development
has earned us not only awards and recognition, but a reputation as trustworthy partners and
industry thought-leaders.
Project Team
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
The Economics of Land Use
730 17th Street, Suite 630 Denver, CO 80202
303.623.3557 dguimond@epsdenver.com www.epsys.com
Daniel R. Guimond
Principal
ABOUT
Dan Guimond is a real estate economist and planner with over 30 years’ experience
in economic and financial analysis and development planning for the public and
private sectors. Dan has advised cities, counties, state, and federal agencies on a
range of economic development issues, including preparation of comprehensive and economic development plans and strategies, capital improvement programs, economic and fiscal impact analyses, and project development feasibility and funding. He has also specialized in retail development/redevelopment feasibility
analysis, citywide and district specific retail development strategies. Dan has
extensive project experience with redevelopment projects including commercial
corridors, aging facilities, and infill and transit-oriented development sites.
SELECTED PROJECT MANAGEMENT EXPERIENCE
Plan Norman Comprehensive Plan, Norman, Oklahoma
Economic consultant on team to prepare a new Comprehensive Plan for this
university town of 115,000. Included land use demand forecasts, redevelopment
sites analysis, land use alternatives fiscal and market evaluations.
South I-25 Corridor Urban Corridor Study, Denver MSA, CO
Economic development and land use forecasts and transportation strategies and
action projects for the nine mile South I-25 Corridor from Belleview Station on the
north to RidgeGate in Lone Tree on the South.
RidgeGate East Retail Development Forecasts, Lone Tree, CO
Retail market study and forecasts to validate RidgeGate East master development
plan projections of retail development and related City sales tax revenues.
Denver Retail Conditions and Opportunities Study, Denver, CO
Analysis of retail conditions and sales flows for the City and nine sub-districts
identifying gaps by category and location. Also evaluated the incentives programs
of peer cities and recommended an expanded tool box of business assistance and
financial incentives.
planOKC Retail Element, Oklahoma City, OK
Citywide retail development plan including analysis of citywide and subarea sales flows, identification and categorization of retail nodes, centers and corridors, performance evaluations, and development and revitalization policies and strategies.
Loveland Downtown Market Study , Loveland, CO
Analyzed urban housing and mixed use development demand for the downtown
Loveland. The analysis determined housing types in demand in downtown and
studied the feasibility of developing catalyst concept projects in Loveland.
East Aurora Annexation Study, Aurora, CO
Fiscal impact analysis for an annexation study and Comprehensive Plan amendment
that evaluated the potential expansion of the City’s boundary by 31 square miles.
Provided market inputs to the land use plan, guidance on development and
infrastructure phasing, and findings and recommendations on capital impact fees in
future annexations, and on how the City’s revenue structure affects its ability to sustain a consistent level of service to residents as growth occurs.
Arvada Economic Analysis, Arvada, CO
Population and employment forecasts, land demand analysis, and land demand
forecasts as input to Comprehensive Plan Update. Primary issue was to balance
demand for employment uses with pressure for residential/commercial development.
Education
M.A., Urban Geography,
University of Colorado, 1976
B.A., Political Science, University of Colorado, 1972
Previous Employment
1999-present
Principal Economic & Planning
Systems, Inc.
1997-1999 Principal, In Motion, Inc.
1993-1997
Vice President, BRW Inc.
1978-1992
Vice President, Hammer
Siler, George Associates
1976-1978
Planner, Jefferson County
Planning Department
Affiliations
Urban Land Institute
International Downtown
Association
Denver Planning Board,
1992 to 2005
ICSC Colorado Alliance
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
The Economics of Land Use
730 17th Street, Suite 630 Denver, CO 80202
303.623.3557 bduffany@epsdenver.com www.epsys.com
Brian Duffany
Vice President
ABOUT
Brian Duffany is an economist and planner with 15 years of experience in land
economics. His background includes commercial real estate valuations, market
analysis and feasibility studies, and environmental consulting. Brian has a broad
base of experience in strategic planning, local government finance, fiscal impact analysis, transportation planning, demographic analysis, real estate development feasibility analysis, and financial and economic modeling.
SELECTED PROJECT EXPERIENCE
Arvada Comprehensive Plan, Arvada, CO
Economic analysis to evaluate Arvada’s economic base and competitive position in
the region. Prepared land use forecasts for light industrial, R&D, office, and retail to
be used in a Comprehensive Plan update and to inform the City’s economic
development policies and strategies.
Comprehensive Plan Economic Analysis, Olathe, KS
Analysis of commercial development market conditions and land demand for office,
light industrial/R&D, and retail uses as inputs to Plan policies and strategies.
Recommended a reduction in retail/commercial zoning to balance supply and
demand, and rezoning strategies for excess commercial land.
Comprehensive Plan Economics, Mountain Village, CO
Used an economic model developed by EPS to analyze the retail performance and
tenant mix of the Town’s Village Core. Worked with design team and stakeholders
to craft recommendations for reconfiguring and reprogramming space, and
expanding the hotel bed base, and revising density regulations.
Comprehensive Plan, McCall, ID
Land use, economic forecasting, and policy recommendations for a comprehensive
land use plan update. Implementation plan included recommendations to improve
Downtown retail conditions and increase housing opportunities for locals.
Laurel Gateway Plan, Laurel, MT
Economic development and investment strategy to revitalize an outdated commercial district that is the City’s key entry point. Prepared a market analysis and capital improvement plan funded by TIF as the basis for policy and implementation measures.
Yellowstone County, MT Tax Increment for Development District
Prepared a market analysis, real estate and economic development strategy to
guide formation of a new TEDD in the Lockwood area east of Billings, MT. Projected
tax increment financing revenues and bond financing capacity against infrastructure costs to recommend a phased development plan.
East Aurora Annexation Study, Aurora, CO
Project manager for a fiscal impact analysis for an annexation study and
Comprehensive Plan amendment that evaluated the potential expansion of the
City’s boundary by 31 square miles. Provided market inputs to the land use plan,
guidance on development and infrastructure phasing, and findings and recommendations on capital impact fees in future annexations, and on how the City’s revenue structure affects its ability to sustain a consistent level of service to
residents as growth occurs.
Education
Master of Regional Planning,
Cornell University, 2003
Bachelor of Arts, Geology, Colby College, 1996
Previous Employment
2010-present
Vice President Economic & Planning
Systems, Inc.
2007-2010 Senior Associate
Economic & Planning
Systems, Inc.
2004-2007
Associate
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
1999-2001
Real Estate Analyst Value Research Group LLC
1997-1998
Environmental Geologist Dames & Moore Group
Affiliations
American Planning
Association
Urban Land Institute
www.sandersonstewart.comSANDERSON STEWARTLAUREN WATERTON, AICP
Senior Land Planner |Community Design Studio Manager
As manager of the Community Design Studio, Lauren’s work centers on
community planning, revitalization studies, and land development projects.
With 20 years of professional experience, Lauren focuses on creating plans and
environments that support communities and the people that live there. Skilled
at solving complex problems, Lauren has experience working in collaborative
environments and bringing diverse people together to help achieve a common
goal. She has extensive experience in a broad scope of planning projects
including master planning, urban renewal and redevelopment, design review,
and real estate development.
Prior to Sanderson Stewart, Lauren served as the Director of Planning at
American Land Development in Bozeman, Montana. Her work in Colorado
includes Principal of UrbanPlan,inc., Director of Design Review for Vail
Resorts, and Town Planner for the Town of Vail.
Project Experience
Midtown Action Plan, Bozeman, Montana • Project Planner
Westlake BMX Park Master Plan (Midtown Urban Review District
Term Contract Project), Bozeman, Montana • Project Manager
The Club at Spanish Peaks Trail Master Plan and Maintenance, Big
Sky, Montana • Project Manager
Gallatin County Triangle Planning Project, Gallatin County,
Montana • Project Manager
Downtown Bozeman Parking Lots Redesign, Bozeman, Montana
•Project Planner
City of Bozeman Development Review Term Contract, Bozeman,
Montana • Project Manager
Downtown Bozeman Zone Map Amendments, Bozeman, Montana
•Project Manager
Lockwood Targeted Economic Development District, Yellowstone
County, Montana • Project Manager
Midtown Urban Renewal District Term Contract, Bozeman, Montana
•Project Planner
Anaconda Downtown Master Plan, Anaconda, Montana • Project
Manager
City of Dillon Growth Policy Update & Downtown Master Plan,
Dillon, Montana • Project Manager
City of Laurel TIF District Strategy Plan, Laurel, Montana • Project
Manager
Sanders County Capital Improvement Plan, Sanders County,
Montana • Project Planner
Tri-Township Comprehensive Plan, McKenzie County, North Dakota
•Project Manager
Knife River Urban Planning Study, Billings, Montana • Project
Planner
Yellowstone Boys & Girls Ranch/Lenhardt Property Master Plan,
Billings, Montana • Project Manager
Education
Portland State UniversityPortland, OregonMaster of Urban and Regional Planning, 1994
Rhodes CollegeMemphis, TennesseeB.A., Urban Studies, 1991
Professional Registration
American Institute of Certified Planners, 1997
Professional Affiliations
American Planning Association, Planners’ Advocacy Network
Montana Association of Planners
Advisory Committee, Bozeman Unified Development Code Update, 2015-Present
Bozeman Planning Board, 2016-Present
Bozeman Planning Coordinating Committee Member
Continuing Education
Greater Yellowstone Framework for Sustainable Development, Yellowstone Business Partnership, 2009
Historical and Architectural Survey Workshop, Colorado Historical Society, 2004
Leadership Bozeman, 2013-2014
Awards and Honors
AICP - National Student Award for Creating a Better Tomorrow, 1996
Oregon Chapter APAStudent Project Award for Creating a Better Tomorrow, 1995
References
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 8 References
REFERENCES
Agency: City of Oklahoma City
Contact: Geoff Butler, Project Manager, (405) 297-2288 Geoffrey.butler@okc.gov
Population: 631,346
# of jobs: 382,624
Project start and completion date: February 2012 – March 2014
Brief summary of project: planOKC Retail Plan
Agency: Big Sky Chamber of Commerce
Contact: Kitty Clemens, Executive Director, (406) 995-3000 kitty@bigskychamber.com
Population: 2,767
# of jobs: 1,991
Project start and completion date: October 2013 – July 2014
Brief summary of project: Housing Policy Strategy
Agency: City of Boulder, Colorado
Contact: Molly Winter, Director, Downtown and University Hill Management Division/
Parking Services (303) 413-7317 winterm@bouldercolorado.gov
Population: 107,349
# of jobs: 88,963
Project start and completion date: October 2014 – February 2015
Brief summary of project: Boulder University Hill Market and Feasibility Study
Agency: City of Denver, Colorado
Contact: Jeff Romine, Senior Manager, Office of Economic Development (720) 913-1526
Jeff.Romine@denvergov.org
Population: 682,545
# of jobs: 473,169
Project start and completion date: December 2012 – June 2013
Brief summary of project: Denver Retail Opportunities Study
Agency: City of Fort Collins, Colorado
Contact: Joshua Birks, Economic Health Director, (970) 221-6234 jbirks@fcgov.com
Population: 161,175
# of jobs: 74,498
Project start and completion date: January 2014 – September 2014
Brief summary of project: Housing Affordability Policy Study
Outline of Services
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 9 Outline of Services
OUTLINE OF SERVICES
This draft work plan was developed from our reading of the RFP and experience in conducting
similar studies for comprehensive plans. We are open to your input on any specific issues to be
evaluated and specific analyses that need to be conducted.
Task 1 – Project Initiation, Project Management, Stakeholder Meetings
1.1: Project Initiation and Project Management
To begin the project, EPS will travel to Bozeman to meet with the City’s project manager and to
have an introductory kick-off meeting with the Planning Board. Prior to this meeting, EPS would
begin the research and analysis under Tasks 2 and 3 to update our familiarity with Bozeman and
to inform a discussion guide for the meeting. We would also tour the area and surroundings in
preparation for a series of interviews and stakeholder meetings.
Over the course of the project, we would schedule project management check-in calls every two
weeks with the City’s project manager. This will help the consultant team and the City stay
abreast of any current issues and facilitate the flow of information.
1.2: Public Involvement
We have initially proposed a flexible public involvement process that can be better defined with
input from the City. In our experience, these studies are most often used to inform the
comprehensive plan choices, alternatives, and adopted policies in terms of their market
feasibility or degree of impact. Their somewhat technical nature is not best suited to a traditional
public involvement process used in a citywide or neighborhood plan. We therefore propose a
more targeted outreach effort.
Our recommendation is to conduct confidential or small group interviews with major stakeholders
or experts in the various areas of the real estate market and economy.
Major employers
Commercial real estate experts (developers and brokers)
Economic and workforce developers
Residential developers
Affordable housing stakeholders
Task 2 – Economic and Demographic Assessment
The economic and demographic assessment will document the baseline trends over the past 15
years in Bozeman covering pre- and post-Great Recession time periods, which have affected
both the housing and commercial development markets.
Economic Trends and Conditions
Document and analyze employment trends and conditions including the number of jobs by
industry and major employers using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau
of Economic Analysis (BEA), and the Montana Department of Labor. Previous work on
targeted industry clusters in the City’s Economic Development Strategy will be incorporated.
Economic and Demographic Analysis Services
in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update
January 30, 2017
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 10 Outline of Services
Summarize workforce demographics including occupations and educational attainment.
Quantify and illustrate commuting patterns in and out of Bozeman by year.
Determine the strengths and weaknesses of the existing employment sectors; assess near
and long term prospects for growth.
Demographic and Housing Trends
Analyze trends in population, age distribution, households, group quarters and the student
population, and race and ethnicity. Data sources will include the US Census and third party
demographic data providers.
Inventory the existing housing and categorize it by housing type and location. Analyze trends
in household size, household type, units in structure, and affordability metrics such as cost
burden.
Depending on data availability and data structure, use County Assessor parcel data and/or
City and County building permit data for a richer analysis of housing types and lot sizes
(densities) by year built to document market trends in residential densities. Some of the
housing analysis will be conducted under Task 4 (Housing Market) to paint the complete
picture.
Task 3 – Commercial Real Estate Market
The major components of the commercial real estate market are employment supporting land
uses such as retail, office, industrial, warehousing, and R&D space. Flexible and shared
workspace formats are also becoming more popular nationally. Under this task we will document
development trends in Bozeman and the greater Bozeman market to document the City’s
historical market share compared to the surrounding communities and unincorporated area.
Compile development data from a variety of sources including building permits, assessor
parcel data, the CoStar commercial property database, and local published statistics from
brokerage firms.
Document and analyze development trends and market share by land use type and area of
the County including the City of Bozeman.
Identify and characterize major submarkets for each land use type.
Assess the strengths and weaknesses of each market segment in terms of the City’s ability to
be competitive for employment and retail development that support both economic
development and quality of life.
The evolution of the retail market will be an important area of focus. Vibrant downtowns and
neighborhood commercial districts are important to quality of life and place, yet the number of
potential retailers and other tenant types to fill mixed use space has diminished with the growth
of online retail. In some cases, restaurants and entertainment can fulfill this role. We will need to
evaluate the impact of these trends on the most important commercial areas in Bozeman.
Economic and Demographic Analysis Services
in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update
January 30, 2017
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 11 Outline of Services
Task 4 – Residential Real Estate Market
The residential market analysis will address these types of questions and issues related to the
sustainable growth of Bozeman:
How does construction (supply) relate to the growth in population and employment?
Is the market constrained or underserved, and if so who is underserved?
Is there a sufficient diversity of housing coming online to meet the needs of today’s and
tomorrow’s residents and workers?
EPS will perform a housing market analysis for the City to quantify housing supply and housing
demand. We will also document and evaluate sale and rental price trends and compare to wages
and household incomes to gauge affordability conditions.
Housing Inventory - EPS will collect and analyze secondary data on the ownership and
rental housing inventory. Using Gallatin County Assessor parcel-level data, supplemented by
U.S. Census/ACS block group level data, EPS will identify the type, magnitude and condition
of housing throughout the City, distinguishing also between single-family, multifamily, and
group quarters housing.
Housing Construction, Sales, and Rental Trends – EPS will work with the City to identify
a stakeholder that may be able to provide detailed statistics from the multiple listing services
(MLS). This will allow for a robust analysis of residential sales prices, as Montana statute
does not allow assessors to disclose sale prices. Absent MLS data, we will need to rely on
other less detailed sources such as brokerage reports and Census data. Construction trends
will be documented and analyzed from City and County building permit data and assessor
parcel data.
Task 5 – Emerging Development Trends
After completing tasks 2 through 4, EPS will have thoroughly documented the market trends and
opportunities in Bozeman. Drawing from our knowledge and experience working in other
markets, and from a literature search in real estate and planning publications, we will identify
other development formats that could be in demand in Bozeman but are not yet supplied. Some
major themes could include:
Retail evolution – How will online retail continue to affect Bozeman’s retail development
opportunities? What new concepts could be viable?
Housing market expectations – Will the market for ownership housing continue to improve?
How will the housing choices of millennials change as they age?
Workplace trends – How much of Bozeman’s workforce is “location neutral”? Will this grow?
Will the demand for co-working space be significant or a small niche? Are there any industrial
and R&D innovations relevant to Bozeman?
Economic and Demographic Analysis Services
in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update
January 30, 2017
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 12 Outline of Services
Task 6 – Land Demand Forecasts
To inform the land use and Growth Policy elements of the Comprehensive Plan, EPS will prepare
land demand (acreage) projections by major land use type. First, we will develop a 20-30 year
housing and employment projection (time period tied to the long range planning time horizon).
Using the analysis in the previous tasks to inform the assumptions on the land use mix, EPS will:
Project the mix of housing types and resulting acreages at approximate densities;
Project employment and retail space and acreage at approximate densities;
Develop one to two policy-based land demand scenarios showing the impact of different
housing mix and density targets.
Task 7 – Draft and Final Reports
EPS will prepare draft and final reports to document the key information and analyses and input
from stakeholders described in this draft work plan. Since this document will have a broad
audience ranging from staff to elected officials and the public, EPS will make it reader-friendly by
avoiding technical jargon and relying primarily on charts, figures, and maps. Two rounds of
revisions are assumed in the budget from two sets of consolidated comments provided by the
client.
Task 8 – Planning Board and City Commission
Task 1 describes a kick off meeting and targeted interviews with key stakeholders, employers,
real estate experts, and economic developers (Trip 1). This task includes the other key meetings
and presentations to the City Boards and Commissions. We recommend that senior EPS staff
attend these meetings in-person for a better dialogue on these topics, which may be complex
and abstract in nature.
Trip 2 – Present initial findings to Planning Board and Economic Development Council
Trip 3 – Present draft report to City Commission
Trip 4 – Present final report to City Commission
Cost and Expenses
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 13 Cost and Expenses COST AND EXPENSES The estimated budget by task is shown below in Table 1. The total project cost is estimated not to exceed $64,000. The labor costs for Tasks 1 through 7 which are the core of the technical work total to $47,870 for EPS and Sanderson Stewart (including a kick-off meeting with the Planning Board). The cost for the additional Board and Commission meeting attendance is budgeted at $11,480 in labor. Total travel costs are budgeted at $4,500 for 5-person trips at an estimated $750 each. EPS invoices monthly with payment due within 30 days unless negotiated otherwise. Figure 1 Proposed Cost and Expenses SandersonStewartPrincipal Vice Project Research/ Senior SandersonTrips in Charge PresidentAnalyst Support Planner EPS Stewart TotalGuimondDuffanyStaffStaffWatertonBilling Rate$225 $190 $130 $80 $130Labor CostsTask 1 – Project Initiation, Project Management, Stakeholder Meetings 1 8 20 20 0 32 $8,200 $4,160 $12,360Task 2 – Economic and Demographic Assessment 0 2 24 0 0 $3,500 $0 $3,500Task 3 – Commercial Real Estate Market 0 2 24 4 0 $3,820 $0 $3,820Task 4 – Residential Real Estate Market 0 4 32 4 0 $5,240 $0 $5,240Task 5 – Emerging Development Trends 4 4 16 4 0 $4,060 $0 $4,060Task 6 – Land Demand Forecasts 2 8 24 0 16 $5,090 $2,080 $7,170Task 7 – Draft and Final Reports 8 16 32 8 16 $9,640 $2,080 $11,720Task 8 – Planning Board and City Commission 3 8 40 16 0 0 $11,480 $0 $11,480Subtotal 4 30 96 188 20 64 $51,030 $8,320 $59,350Total Staff Hours334 64Direct CostsSubcontractor$0 $150 $150EPS Travel - 5 Person-Trips @$750 each.$4,500$0$4,500Subtotal$4,500 $150 $4,650Total Project Cost$55,530 $8,470 $64,000Source: Economic & Planning SystemsEconomic & Planning Systems Staff
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