HomeMy WebLinkAboutCity of Bozeman Economic Demographic Analysis RFP PRINTREQUEST FOR PROPOSALS January 31, 2017
Professional Services to Conduct
Economic and Demographic Analysis Services
in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update
Land Use Projection
Bozeman, Montana
CTA Headquarters | Billings, MT
Table of Contents
Project Summary 2
Company Description / Capability 3
Project Team 5
References 8
Outline of Services 10
Affirmation of Non-discrimination 20
Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection
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Project Summary
CTA is confident that we have the depth of experience, qualifications and
professional staff necessary to perform and provide recommendations
resulting from the analysis of demographics, all land use asset
classes (retail, office, hotel, industrial, institutional and residential. Our
comprehensive and integrated methodology allows for efficiency,
objectivity and transparency in our analysis. CTA provides the balanced
mix of Planning Principles, Statistical Market Analysis and Economic
Development necessary for a study of this scale and complexity.
Over the past decade plus, CTA’s lead team of planners and land use
economists have conducted similar comprehensive Demographic,
Market Analysis and Land Use Capacity Strategies for a range of similarly
sized municipalities including Bozeman itself, not to mention larger and
smaller communities across North America. In the past 5 years, CTA’s
Lead Market Analyst, Kieron Hunt completed a very similar Commercial &
Industrial Lands Study for the City of Saskatoon (Saskatchewan) as well as
a Population and Lands Capacity Buildout Analysis for District of Saanich
(British Columbia) which determined the future commercial and industrial
demand and land use allocation citywide and on a nodal basis for the
next 25 years as each city grows.
Having a strong understanding of the local areas and regional areas
trends in population, housing, commercial, industrial and employment,
will enable the City of Bozeman to assess future growth scenarios,
economic impacts, environmental impacts, transportation and
infrastructure needs, which will ultimately enable the City to make
stronger and more informed recommendations for future zoning plans
and future commercial development. For the City of Bozeman, the
importance of this local and regional understanding is heightened
due to its relationship with transportation corridors which pass and
converge through the City. CTA’s past work on the North Park (formerly
Mandeville properties) assisted the City in providing a marketable asset
for development, which will be considered in the context of this study.
We see the following objectives as driving the City of Bozeman’s Economic &
Demographic Analysis Services study:
• Identify expected growth scenarios in relation to other centers in the region;
• Facilitate and formulate recommendations for future development;
• Provide indicators for transportation and infrastructure servicing needs;
• Prepare a population and employment projection method that could be
updated and built upon with new data in future years, for more accurate and
reliable forecasts;
• Identify what land area and land characteristics are needed for the continued
economic and physical growth of the City;
• Identify what is under-served in Bozeman commercially/industrially, where
commercial, industrial, and residential building trends are headed nationwide,
and how Bozeman fits into the larger trade area; and
• Provide recommendations for future land inventory by general class, e.g.
commercial, industrial, realizing that Bozeman prefers a higher density
employment pattern rather than a suburban pattern, in which Mixed-Use
development, intensification and densification play a key role.
Schedule & Milestones
We have reviewed the RFP requirements and combined with our extensive
local knowledge and expertise, we feel comfortable that we can undertake this
assignment within the desired 6 month timeline. However, it is our experience
from having worked on many of these studies in the Public Sector that tend
to coincide with the months of July and August, and which require City
Commission or Council attendance, that caution should be noted with respect
to the envisioned timeline for this project so that we can ensure full attendance
at critical presentations/milestones. Therefore, we have noted that our project
timeline in the final section will have a completion at the end of September to
allow for the best attendance and input at the Final Presentations.
We have documented a detailed schedule and timeline for this project on a
task-by-task basis that includes Public Engagement and major presentation
milestones on an almost monthly basis. Combined with bi-weekly progress
reports, CTA will be a constant voice and advocate for this project.
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Company Description / Capability
Brief history of the company that includes the date of
establishment and examples of relevant prior RFP/bids and
current customers of similar attributes to the City of Bozeman.
As a multi-disciplined team, CTA’s approach is to serve the City of
Bozeman in providing economic and demographic analysis in support of
a comprehensive and update land use projection using the talents of all
team members. After nearly 80 years , integrated design and client service
remain our core philosophical approach to project delivery.
CTA is the regional leader in long-range and current planning which
includes subdivision, zoning, mixed-use community design, market
analysis, growth policies and housing studies. By applying our knowledge
and experience, we provide clients with successful planning tools
through creative implementation of broad planning concepts.
Our all inclusive planning services allow us to approach each project
holistically and comprehensively. These services include:
Comprehensive Plans
Capital Improvement Plans
Code Writing
Zone Text Amendments
Zoning Codes
Master Plans and Sub-area Plans
Growth Policies
Grant Writing
Urban Design / Streetscapes
Site and Master Planning
Public Facilitation
Our team understands that planning is about maintaining and improving
quality of life to ensure the best and most efficient use of public and
private resources. Our planning approach promotes a sense of pride for
the community with a strong commitment to integrity and innovation.
Our team of skilled professionals works closely with clients to develop
successful and compelling projects that breathe life into communities.
Our team is well-rounded, bringing experience and expertise in both
public and private-sector planning, public infrastructure planning,
public outreach, GIS, and more. We listen carefully and develop planned
solutions that clearly articulate the clients’ goals. Our planners are also
part of a broad group, CTA Site, and can draw from many resources
including a talented group of civil engineers, landscape architects,
surveyor and CAD technicians.
A few recent, relevant clients who, for we have provided like-services
include the City of White Sulphur Springs, MT (planning services/growth
policy development), Carbon County (MT) Growth Policy, Growth Policy
update, Sheridan County (MT), and Granite County Growth Policy (MT).
In the following pages we have included team resumes and additional
project descriptions that further illustrate our breadth of experience and
we encourage you to reach out to our clients.
By the Numbers
420+
professionals
$400m+
annual construction volume
79
years in business - Est. 1938
55+
LEED accredited professionals
17
locations
1
customer-driven mission
Market Analysis
Park / Recreation Planning & Design
Landscape Design
Land Trust/Conservation Development
Site Restoration and Reclamation
Neighborhood / Residential Planning
Visual Impact Assessment / Mitigation
Contract Administration
Construction Administration
Campus Planning
Planned Unit Developments
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Describe your experience and capacity to manage projects of the size and scope proposed.
Our collaborative team can often be found all over Montana working together on a variety of projects. We can assure you we’ve assembled a strong team
with diverse knowledge and capabilities to deliver an excellent product.
Project Manager, Kieron Hunt, and Project Planner, Monica Plecker, will bring their extensive planning experience to the City of Bozeman. They, along
with team member Dave Dixon, will be a consistent presence with city staff and the public, communicating all key project issues and milestones. He is
adept at data synthesis and visually communicating this data. Principal-in-Charge, Wayne Freeman lives in Bozeman, and will offer his offer his 30+ years
of land use planning and project management, to ensure the success of this project. Kieron is highly qualified and experienced in managing efforts of this
scope and size and he will manage the project team and make certain all deliverablesmeet expectations on time and within budget. He will be available to
creatively find solutions and build consensus among diverse groups.
For example, Wayne, Kieron and team worked closely with City of Bozeman Economic Development in conducting a full market analysis of the region for
retail, commercial, accommodations and industrial land uses along with a concept plan so that the lands (formerly Mandeville) could be marketed with
a vision for development. The plan was adopted by the Bozeman City Commission in January 2013, recognizing the community value in developing the
North Park Properties in some form using the Plan as a framework for development.
Another relevant example is the work CTA Planner Monica Plecker undertook for the City of Laurel in developing their Growth Policy; “Painting a Brighter
Tomorrow” is a data driven, action oriented long-range planning document. This project included an extensive re-write that focused on action oriented
goals, strategies and objectives in a steadily growing area of Yellowstone County. The plan contemplated goals and strategies, not only for the City of Laurel,
but the extraterritorial zoning and planning jurisdiction which extends 4 ½ miles beyond the City of Laurel. CTA team member Monica Plecker received
the “Professional Achievement in Planning” Award from the Montana Association of Planner’s in 2014 for her leadership in the development of the Growth
Management Plan.
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Wayne Freeman
ASLA, RLA
PRINCIPAL-IN-CHARGE
Kieron Hunt
PROJECT MANAGER
LEAD MARKET ANALYST
& LAND USE PLANNER
Dave Dixon
AICP
PROJECT PLANNER
GIS SPECIALIST
Monica Plecker
AICP
COMMUNITY PLANNER
Workload of Key Project Staff
Wayne Freeman
Principal-In-Charge
Kieron Hunt
Project Manager
Dave Dixon
Project Planner, GIS Specialist
Monica Plecker
Community Planner
Current Availability
The CTA professionals whom we are proposing for your project
typically have varying volumes of work under contract for a
wide range of project types and sizes. However, we understand
the staff requirements for this effort and our proposed team
will be available to meet your intended schedule. CTA has
successfully completed numerous projects by selecting highly
capable team managers and members, using well tested project
management and communications tools and prioritizing
segments of work to develop planning projects efficiently
while maintaining the highest levels of quality control. The
team assigned to your project will be available to commit the
necessary professionals to your project to make sure your time,
budget, and quality expectations are met.
Project Team
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Project Team
Wayne Freeman ASLA, RLA
PRINCIPAL-IN-CHARGE
As Principal-in-Charge, Wayne will be responsible for the team’s
performance - making certain that every resource necessary to
make this effort successful is dedicated to you.
As an Associate Principal, Wayne has 30 years of professional
experience in landscape architecture, land planning, and
environmental planning. As the firm’s senior practicing landscape
architect, he often is the principal in charge for complicated and
diverse projects that involve dozens of professional staff and tens
of millions of dollars in construction costs.
RELEVANT EXPERIENCE:
• North Park Properties Market Analysis & Concept Plan
• City of Saskatoon Commercial & Industrial Lands Study
• Grasswood Market Impact Study
• City of Laurel Growth Management Plan
• District of Saanich, Population and Lands Capacity Analysis
• Commercial and Mixed-Use Development Trends in the Rocky
• Mountain West, Sonoran Institute
Kieron Hunt
PROJECT MANAGER
Kieron has 15 years of experience in formulating implementable
Market-Driven Market Analyses and Development Strategies
across all asset classes (Retail, Office, Hotel, Industrial and Multi-
Family) as well as Retail Feasibility Studies, Demographic Analysis
and Site Selection Due Diligence. Kieron has conducted Market
Feasibility and Development Strategies around the world
providing clients with a diverse portfolio in Urban Planning,
Economic Development and Retail Operations. His experience
spans markets across the US and Canada as well as Internationally.
RELEVANT EXPERIENCE:
• Mandeville/North Park Market Analysis, Bozeman, MT
• METG Lands Market Analysis, Helena, MT
• Population and Lands Capacity Needs Analysis, Saanich, BC
• Commercial and Industrial Lands Study, Saskatoon, SK
• Grasswood Market Analysis, Saskatoon Planning District, SK
• Denver Int’l Airport Land Use Market Analysis, Denver, CO
• Miller Hill Central Corridor Market Analysis, Duluth, MN
• Retail, Office & Industrial Market Analysis, Spruce Grove, AB
Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection
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Dave Dixon AICP
PROJECT PLANNER, GIS SPECIALIST
Dave is a Community Planner at CTA. Dave is experienced with
planning in the cities and counties of Montana, North Dakota and
the Canadian Prairie Provinces. He has assisted in comprehensive
planning for communities ranging in population from 300 to
200,000 and brings his mapping and design specializations to the
project team. Dave will assist in all project tasks, while specifically
providing GIS, stakeholder facilitation and document preparation
for the project.
RELEVANT EXPERIENCE:
• Grasswood Market Impact Study, R.M.Corman Park
• Contributing Author, “Commercial & Mixed-Use Development
Trends in the Rocky Mountain West”, Sonoran Institute
• Project Planner for a Downtown Revitalization Discussion Paper;
Spruce Grove, AB
• Market Analyst, City of Fort Saskatchewan Retail Market Study;
Fort Saskatchewan, AB
• Project Planner for a 75-acre mixed-use subdivision; Regina, SK
• Project Planner for an updated Growth Policy; Carbon County, MT
Monica Plecker AICP
COMMUNITY PLANNER
Monica has extensive experience in municipal planning. She is a member of
the American Institute of Certified Planners. She has been a key contributer
of several long range planning and policy efforts. Monica was awarded the
Professional Achievement in Planning Award from the Montana Association
of Planners for her work on the City of Laurel Growth Policy. She also has re-
written municipal and county-wide zoning ordinances. Her understanding of
these municipal planning tools will provide a unique perspective on what this
planning effort will mean to the future of Bozeman. Specifically, Monica will
assist in data synthesis, public involvement and stakeholder facilitation.
RELEVANT EXPERIENCE:
• City of Laurel Growth Policy; Laurel, MT
Led an extensive re-write for the Laurel City/ County Planning Department in 2013.
Received a leadership award from the Montana Association of Planner’s for the
development of this plan.
• Town of Broadway Comprehensive Plan; Broadway, VA
Project manager for the development of the Broadway Comprehensive Plan. Plan
included extensive re-write and public involvement process.
• Planning Director, Laurel, MT
Developed and led through adoption extensive zoning code amendments focusing on
façade improvements, signage, and general uses.
• Regional Planner, Central Shenandoah Planning District Commissioner; Staunton, VA.
Key contributor to several long-range planning efforts including the Upper James/
Upper Shenandoah Water Supply Plans, Rockingham Solid Waste Plan, CEDS and more.
• Carbon County, MT
Developed and complete restructuring of the county-wide zoning in 2016.
Specifically focused on commercial and industrial uses with a focus on heavy
industrial conditional uses.
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References
Provide a minimum 3 and maximum of 6 specifically in local,
municipal, county, or state agencies.
Project: City of Saskatoon Commercial & Industrial Lands Study
i. Name of agency:
City of Saskatoon
ii. Contact name to include: title, phone number and email
Dana Kripki
Senior Planner
Regional Partnerships – Future Growth Section
(306) 975-1432 dana.kripki@saskatoon.ca
iii. Population of jurisdiction:
230,000
iv. Number of employees:
3 (including Kieron Hunt as Project Manager and Lead Consultant)
v. Project start: November 2010; Completion date: November 2011
vi. Brief summary of project
The City of Saskatoon, with a population of over 230,000 serves as a major
regional hub for the Province of Saskatchewan. In response to unprecedented
growth and evolving trends in development and demographics as a study was
conducted to understand the growth dynamics and how they would impact
land needs across a range of sectors.
Kieron Hunt authored and led the project team, conducting population
projections and sensitivities along with land capacity forecasts, with allocations
for amount of space, land requirements and locations throughout the City.
Demand and land forecasts were provided for all sectors including retail, office,
hotel, industrial (light, medium & heavy). The end result was a document that
included implementable directions for land use and policy considerations.
Kieron led the analysis as well as the public engagement which included
numerous stakeholder and advisory group meetings as well as council and
regional economic development presentations.
Project: Grasswood Market Impact Study
i. Name of agency:
Saskatoon Planning District (a partnership of the RM of Corman Park and
City of Saskatoon)
ii. Contact name to include: title, phone number and email
Rebecca Row
Director of Planning & Development
306-975-1654 rrow@rmcormanpark.ca
iii. Population of jurisdiction:
250,000 (regional)
iv. Number of employees:
3 (including Kieron Hunt as Project Manager and Lead Consultant and
David Dixon, CTA Planning)
v. Project start: April 2015; Completion date: September 2016
vi. Brief summary of project
There has been a long history of successful collaboration between the Rural
Municipality of Corman Park (RM) and the City of Saskatoon (City), most
notably with the Planning District. Building on the existing relationship
between the RM and City, the 2,500 acre Grasswood Mixed Use Node
provided an opportunity for an innovative approach to land use planning
and servicing. The node will provide for a diverse mix of land uses including
residential, institutional and commercial development where appropriate,
including development intended to service a Regional market.
CTA completed a Market Impact Study for the area, taking into account the
entire City and Regional growth dynamics.
The study also considered best practices and emerging trends in rural-
urban fringe development as well as development trends and consumer
demand in the RM and City.
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Project: Commercial and Mixed-Use Development Trends in the Rocky
Mountain West
i. Name of agency:
Sonoran Institute
ii. Contact name to include: title, phone number and email
Alison Berry
Sonoran Institute
Northern Rockies Office
201 South Wallace Avenue, Suite B3C
Bozeman, Montana 59715
Tel: (406) 587-7331 x3007
iii. Population of jurisdiction:
n/a
iv. Number of employees:
3 (including Brent Moore as Project Manager and David Dixon as Planner)
v. Project start: 2013; Completion date: 2013
vi. Brief summary of project
CTA Architects Engineers were engaged by the Sonoran Institute in 2013 in
collaboration with Community Builders and MXD Development Strategists
Ltd to prepare a “White Paper” document on development trends in urban/
rural fringe communities. The study area for this report consisted of four states:
Montana, Idaho, Wyoming and Colorado.
The study examined broad trends in the mixed-use development landscape
and through specific case studies in the Rocky Mountain West. In addition to
conducting research and data analysis, CTA interviewed county and municipal
officials, planners, real estate brokers, consultants and developers across four
Rocky Mountain West states. The analysis provided recommendations for the
types and scale of mixed-use development that is most appropriate in different
types of communities, which is intended to help both the public and private
sectors set realistic expectations for the types of projects that are most likely to
succeed in different markets.
Project: District of Saanich, Population and Lands Capacity
Analysis
i. Name of agency:
District of Saanich, BC
ii. Contact name to include: title, phone number and email
Silvia Exposito, MCIP, RPP, AICP
Senior Planner, Community Planning
(250) 475-5472
silvia.exposito@saanich.ca
iii. Population of jurisdiction:
110,000
iv. Number of employees:
3 (including Kieron Hunt as Project Manager and Lead Consultant)
v. Project start: November 2011; Completion date: September 2013
(Final Council Presentation)
vi. Brief summary of project
The District of Saanich is Vancouver Island’s most populated
municipality and incorporates its busiest transportation corridor. There
are many dynamic aspects shaping Saanich, and understanding the
various trends and capacities inside and outside its boundaries was
imperative to planning for its future growth and making improvements
to its existing infrastructure.
The Municipality of Saanich is diverse in its land uses, containing several
nodes of commercial development at several different scales. Each scale
of land use, at each commercial node, caters to different audiences. The
project prepared a trend analysis for Saanich in relation to the region
and provided population and employment projection to 2038 for
Saanich’s Major and Neighborhood Centers, and more specifically the
Uptown Major Center.
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Outline of Services
(Refer to Scope of Services) describing how the proposer
intends to deliver the required service.
PROPOSED WORK PROGRAM
TASK 1: SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT
1.1 Information Gathering – MEETING #1
• Participate in an internal INTRODUCTORY MEETING with City of
Bozeman and Planning Board to discuss project vision, timeline,
methodology, application of outcomes, and to gather all related
background information as provided by the City to understand any
potential developments and/or planning issues.
• Interact with the Planning Staff to understand the overall visions
for the City, as documented in existing City planning, economic
development, and engineering documents
• Meet with selected stakeholders as needed and identified by the City.
1.2 Macro & Micro Economic Overview
• Document National, State and Regional economic factors as
forecasted over the next decade to identify trends and opportunities
that could impact the City of Bozeman.
• Identify economic initiatives, economic drivers, and major
companies/employers in the City of Bozeman and Gallatin Region. It
is noted how an area like Four Corners has been successful in recent
years attracting high value light industrial tenants such as Simms
Warehouse.
• Identify and assess range of “Economic Clusters” (or prevailing
economic niches) that are present in Gallatin County and consider
what “Niche Economic Clusters” could be embraced in the City to
establish a competitive framework for future employment growth
and land use opportunities, realizing the nature of growth in areas
such as Four Corners, Belgrade, and around the Airport.
• Prepare a macro overview of major commercial and residential
development initiatives in the Bozeman, Belgrade, Four Corners and
overall Gallatin County region, as well as documentation/evaluation
of historic and forecasted Construction Activity (e.g. commercial &
residential building permits for the various asset classes and overall
development activity).
• Interview and collect data from local real estate professionals and
government sources to gather background market intelligence. The
purpose is to “triangulate” data collection amongst data providers so
that the most objective and thorough analysis can be undertaken
for population and employment growth and future lands capacity
buildout.
1.3 Growth Trends, Challenges & Opportunities
• Identify the policy context and mechanisms that exist to guide
population and employment growth as well as commercial, industrial
and residential land uses in the City of Bozeman.
• Review and document pertinent municipal policy and plan areas,
comprehensive plan, community-wide strategic plan, economic
development strategy, zoning and other policy and strategy
documents.
• Document and identify (if information is available) the current
distribution of land and jobs by location for various asset classes
(Industrial, office, retail and hotel/accommodation).
• Evaluation of transportation infrastructure capacity in the city (existing
and proposed) as it relates to future employment/commercial nodes
and residential areas.
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1.4 Nodal Overview & Assessment
• Undertake field investigations & site inspection/evaluations to
document and understand the history, characteristics and potential
development issues in the City’s current and future potential nodal
areas
• Prepare SWOT (Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats)
Assessment outlining each area’s inherent potential for growth in
population and/or land use development using an Evaluation Matrix.
• Identify important changes that have occurred since 2009 (last
Comprehensive Plan) and note changes in population, housing and
employment related to potential new development as it affects
nodes, with a particular emphasis on how the Downtown’s future
MUST be paramount to the success of the City over time.
1.5 Progress Workshop – MEETING #2
• Participate in an internal PROJECT PROGRESS WORKSHOP with City
of Bozeman, Economic Development Council and Planning Board
to present preliminary research and progress to date and to obtain
critical input on additional information and next steps.
• During this meeting present and review methodology and
assumptions for population projections, employment growth and
land demand.
1.6 Public Information Session
• In conjunction with the City, and as arranged and coordinated
by the City, CTA will participate in a Public Information Session to
introduce the public to the project, gather their insights and respond
to questions. The purpose of this session would be to provide a brief
overview presentation and, interact with the public to stimulate
discussion around a variety of topics.
• A questionnaire will be circulated to solicit feedback on issues and
areas of focus, or other ideas, that residents and business owners
may have.
TASK 2: PROJECTION METHODOLOGY & CAPACITY ANALYSIS
Using time horizons of 2018 (base year), 2028, 2038 and 2048, the
first stage of Task 2 is to quantify the population growth for the City
of Bozeman from which employment and land demand forecasts can
be forecast. This will provide a basis for which future capacity could be
identified based on a timeline or on population thresholds.
According to the RFP, the following excerpt provides a foundation upon
which our work program methodology will expand and further refine:
“There is a substantial change in demographics happening with rapid
aging, deferred onset of household formation, and smaller households
and nationwide economic transformation brought on by rapid
technological advancement manifested in business practices, job types
and educational offerings. Evolving business and workforce needs require
a close analysis of current and future land use needs. These demographic
trends and economic shifts are not aligned well with the housing stock
and may not align with land use patterns in the area. In order to allow for
constructive conversations and allow elected officials to make informed
decisions, we need better insights on our population characteristics and
economy. As a university town, Bozeman’s population does not fit the
traditional cross-section of workers or employment in the state.”
Accordingly, the methodology that CTA will be using in the population
projections will include the following:
2.1 DEMOGRAPHIC Growth Patterns & Trends
• The key demographic variables of consideration are age cohorts,
gender, and ethnic composition. These variables are then modeled
by their propensity to produce children, die, or migrate in/out of
Montana based upon historical relationships.
• As a University town, the additional layer of students and employees
plays a critical role in the amount and allocation of supportable land
uses, including student housing (off and on-campus), retail, business
incubators etc.
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• A “cohort component” methodology is used to project population
and demographic change. Using this approach, a geographic area’s
age and sex composition of the population at a given point in time
is used to project its population at later dates, since age advances
directly with time.
• This geographic analysis is then fine-tuned by adjusting for ethnicity,
because these categories are distinct in terms of fertility and
mortality.
• Upon completion of these geographic projections, a pro-rata
adjustment is used to force the age distributions to reflect the overall
city-wide population projections.
The second stage of Task 2, using the same time horizons (2018, 2028,
2038 and 2048), will analyze each major commercial land use (retail,
office, industrial and accommodation) as well as residential to provide a
qualitative and quantitative foundation of market demand, from which
the appropriate development amount, mix and positioning strategy. The
market analysis would include a detailed study of competitive supply with
employment and land capacity projections to predict absorption for each
land use class, over next 30 years.
2.2 RESIDENTIAL Land Use Capacity Framework
• Identify proposed residential projects (multi, single family and
student housing) documenting rates of home ownership,
development size, number of units, average unit sizes and absorption
of new units.
• Examine MLS and other housing studies to gauge recent residential
sector performance and profile forecasts as provided by economic
and housing agencies.
• Prepare summary of residential supply and identify the implications.
• Quantify and forecast residential demand by projecting growth in
local population, employment and household composition, using
data provided by City of Bozeman and other sources.
• Using development formats, identify the approximate land
allocation/capacity required to meet current zoning as well as to
accommodate potential zoning changes as it pertains to density and
in particular intensification or suburban vs urban.
• Provide 3 alternative growth scenarios/sensitivities based on buildout
under current zoning, employment-friendly zoning and higher
growth scenario.
2.3 RETAIL Land Use & Employment Lands Supply & Demand
Capacity Framework
• Document current and proposed competitive retail facilities. Provide
a summary of format and performance characteristics including
occupancy, rental rates, anchor tenants and leasing activity.
• Prepare a Retailer and Merchandise Category Void/Opportunity
Matrix to distinguish retail offering in the various nodes and to
identify potential gaps in service provision.
• Identify retailers (new & existing) looking to expand in the local/
regional market.
• Delineate and analyze City of Bozeman as well as the regional
trade area’s retail expenditure profile on each of the major forms of
shopping, dining and entertainment.
• Analyze regional trade area’s demographic profile, including
population growth, income levels, and other data affecting retail
preferences.
• Assess residual retail demand, based on an evaluation of current
citywide retail inventory to warranted citywide retail inventory for
current year to identify inventory surplus or lack thereof.
• Assess residual retail demand on a nodal basis, where applicable
to ensure that balance is maintained in the City relative to where
residents, employees and consumers are living and working.
• Prepare incremental new retail space warranted over next 25 to
30 years, by applying a triangulation of population growth, retail
spending and historic absorption. By determining a blended average
of these three inputs the methodology can be “blended” for a more
accurate forecast of future demand and resulting capacity.
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• Apply industry standard building FSRs (Floor Space Ratio) based on
the applicable retail development formats to simultaneously project
Retail building demand and how those buildings can be defined in
terms of land demand in relation to where such development could/
should occur. This will take into account the existing commercial
hierarchy within the City in order to more accurately sensitize the
capacity requirement, rather than applying a generalized figure
across all retail formats. This methodology allows CTA to recognize
current densities within the City as well as to apply where applicable
modified densities to reflect potential shifts in trends and formats.
• Quantify the estimated number of employees generated by future
potential retail demand.
• Provide 3 alternative growth scenarios/sensitivities based on buildout
under current zoning, employment-friendly zoning and higher
growth scenario.
2.4 OFFICE Land Use & Employment Lands Supply & Demand
Capacity Framework
• Identify competing office projects both built and in pipeline
throughout the region. Gather information on size, positioning,
design configuration, amenities, timing and current leasing activity
and further documenting the sector metrics such as occupancy,
inventory, lease rates, property values, land values, cap rates,
absorption of new space and tenant profiles..
• Prepare incremental new office space warranted over next 25 to 30
years, by applying a triangulation of population growth, employment
growth (amount of jobs & type of employment) and historic
absorption. By determining a blended average of these three inputs
the methodology can be “blended” for a more accurate forecast of
future demand and resulting capacity.
• Apply industry standard building FSRs (Floor Space Ratio) and
employment projections to the building floorspace estimates to
simultaneously project office building demand and how those
buildings can be defined in terms of land demand and where such
development could/should occur. These land uses will be sensitized
to reflect the optimal building format/type in relation to the area of
development recognizing that downtown office projects typically
have a higher density (FSR) than suburban office projects.
• Allocate the potential absorption of new office space in the City and
within each of the potential node as applicable, recognizing the role
of employment centers and economic development in the City.
• Quantify the estimated number of employees generated by future
potential office demand.
• Provide 3 alternative growth scenarios/sensitivities based on buildout
under current zoning, employment-friendly zoning and higher
growth scenario.
2.5 INDUSTRIAL (Heavy & Light) Land Use & Employment Lands
Supply & Demand Capacity Framework
• Identify Industrial (heavy, medium and light) projects in City
documenting rates of vacancy, absorption and lease rates.
• Identify proposed or planned new projects in the pipeline.
• Identify economic development clusters and potential opportunities
therein which could provide for future employment lands.
• Identify major employers and companies in the Bozeman, Gallatin
County/Park County Region.
• Prepare incremental new industrial space warranted over next
25 to 30 years, by applying a triangulation of population growth,
employment growth (amount of jobs & type of employment) and
historic absorption. By determining a blended average of these
three inputs the methodology can be “blended” for a more accurate
forecast of future demand and resulting capacity.
• Apply industry standard building FSRs (Floor Space Ratio) and
employment projections to simultaneously project Industrial
building demand for light and heavy industrial and how those
buildings can be defined in terms of land demand in relation to
where such development could/should occur.
• Provide commentary on the impacts of potential economic
development initiatives to stimulate specific new business sectors
and major industrial tenants who may wish to explore taking a
position within the City of Bozeman’s potential development areas.
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• Identify new and emerging industrial trends and how they impact
industrial areas and needs.
• Quantify the estimated number of employees generated by future
potential industrial demand.
• Provide 3 alternative growth scenarios/sensitivities based on buildout
under current zoning, employment-friendly zoning and higher growth
scenario.
2.6 HOTEL/ACCOMMODATION Land Use Supply & Demand Capacity
Framework
• Analyze visitor trends & profiles for local and regional area.
• Document existing inventory and planned projects, including amenities,
price point, location and strengths/weaknesses.
• Collect current and forecasted performance data on the local and
regional hotel supply (as available), including Occupancy Rates, Average
Daily Rate (ADR) and Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR).
• Create void/opportunity analysis matrix for hotel/accommodation in
trade area, to identify specific voids (unmet potential) that represent
potential development opportunities to pursue.
• Conduct fair share hotel capture rate analysis to establish a baseline
for market support for Hotel/Accommodation. Identify where such
development could occur and be prioritized in order to create a balanced
allocation.
• Quantify the estimated land utilization for potential hotel properties over
the identified time horizon.
• Quantify the estimated number of employees generated by future
potential hotel demand.
• Provide 3 alternative growth scenarios/sensitivities based on buildout
under current zoning, employment-friendly zoning and higher growth
scenario.
2.7 Interim Presentation Workshop – MEETING #3
• Participate in an internal INTERIM PRESENTATION WORKSHOP
with City of Bozeman, Economic Development Council
and Planning Board to present Preliminary Findings and
Recommendations for Population, Employment and Capacity
Buildout.
2.8 Public Open House
• In conjunction with the City and as arranged and
coordinated by the City, CTA will participate in a Public Open
House to present Preliminary Findings and Recommendations
for Population, Employment and Capacity Buildout. CTA will
provide a presentation summary then provide an interactive
round table for discussion pertaining to the various topics
presented.
• A questionnaire will be circulated to solicit feedback on the
directions presented.
TASK 3: TREND ANALYSIS
3.1 Summary Land Use Allocation, Absorption & Employment
Creation
• Summary Population, Employment and Land Use Capacity
Profiles of existing supply, forecasted new supply and demand
(building sf and land acres/hectares) including all nodes within
the City.
• Identify the optimal land use allocation, amount, mix, phasing/
absorption (over 25 to 30 years) and hierarchical positioning of
commercial land uses throughout the City of Bozeman by node
as well as the areas noted previously.
• Identify the potential magnitude of employment generated
by non-residential land uses and how the evolution of these
land uses can play a role in creating employment centers
throughout the City of Bozeman in helping to promote smart
growth rather than promoting continued suburban sprawl.
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3.2 Growth Scenarios
• Reflecting on the changes that have occurred since 2009 and those
forecasted to occur over the next 25 to 30 years summarize the
implications of growth in the City of Bozeman.
• Summarize the collective 3 growth scenarios (residential, retail, office,
industrial and hotel) including a build out scenario under current
zoning, an employment-friendly scenario and a higher growth
scenario.
• Summarize how each growth scenario meets the sustainability
objective for economic, social, cultural and environmental well-being.
This summary will reflect on the most compatible development
formats and achievable densities in relation to each respective area.
• Summarize the estimated job creation over the next 25 – 30 years in
total and by commercial/industrial land use.
• On the basis of the optimal and forecasted land use
recommendations necessary to achieve employment growth while
accommodating population growth and the changing nature of the
population, policy recommendations will be made pertaining to
zoning or by-laws in order to promote smart and sustainable growth.
• Identify any issues relating to timing, preservation of industrial lands
and opportunities for intensification and densification of existing
lands, reflecting on demand and positioning opportunities.
• Prepare a summary of best practices for Industrial and commercial
land use and densification.
• Provide general policy input to optimize the City of Bozeman’s
position within the region in terms of employment, a balanced tax
assessment base, clear understanding of the types, characteristics
and locations of land that will be required to meet future
employment and land use needs.
• Define how the various components will collectively establish a
foundation for retaining local businesses, creating employment
opportunities, while attracting inflow from neighbouring
municipalities for employees, retail spending, tourism, and overall
economic benefit for the City of Bozeman.
3.4 Draft Final Report Presentation – MEETING #4
• Participate in an internal DRAFT FINAL REPORT PRESENTATION
WORKSHOP to the City Commission to present final report structure
and recommendations and obtain any necessary input for revisions
and refinement of report findings/recommendations.
3.5 Final Report Presentation – MEETING #5
• Participate in an internal FINAL REPORT PRESENTATION with
City of Bozeman and Planning Board to present final report and
recommendations.
3.6 Final Report Presentation – MEETING #6 (could run concurrent
with Meeting #5 presentation to Planning Board)
• Participate in an internal FINAL REPORT PRESENTATION to the City
Commission to present final report and recommendations.
DELIVERABLES
The following deliverables would be prepared for this Economic &
Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan
Update Land Use Projection Study:
• Bi-Weekly progress reports summarizing the following: Recently
Performed Work; Upcoming Tasks; Upcoming Milestones; Scope &
Schedule Issues; and Issues to be Aware of.
• Participation in a MEETING/WORKSHOP #1: INTRODUCTORY MEETING
with City of Bozeman and Planning Board
• Participation in a MEETING/WORKSHOP #2: PROJECT PROGRESS
WORKSHOP with City of Bozeman, Economic Development Council
and Planning Board to present Task 1 fieldwork, data gathering
progress and assumptions in a PowerPoint Summary.
• PUBLIC INFORMATION SESSION #1 hosted by City with CTA Staff in
attendance to facilitate and answer questions
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• Participation in a MEETING/WORKSHOP #3: INTERIM PRESENTATION
WORKSHOP with City of Bozeman, Economic Development Council
and Planning Board to present Task 1 & 2 Findings in a PowerPoint
Summary.
• CTA will provide a digital copy of the presentation as a pdf for
feedback from staff.
• PUBLIC OPEN HOUSE #2 hosted by City with CTA Staff in attendance
to facilitate and answer questions
• Participation in MEETING WORKSHOP #4: DRAFT FINAL REPORT
PRESENTATION WORKSHOP to the City Commission with to present
draft Report findings, implications and recommendations.
• CTA will provide a digital copy of the Draft Report Presentation
as well as 2 hard copies and one digital copy pdf of the draft final
report.
• Participation in MEETING #5: FINAL REPORT PRESENTATION with City
of Bozeman and Planning Board to present final report findings,
policy directions, implications and recommendations.
• Participation in MEETING #6: FINAL REPORT PRESENTATION to the
City Commission to present final report and recommendations.
• Final Economic and Demographic Analysis Report with Executive
Summary and Appendices will succinctly cover all aspects of the
Scope of Work with detailed support and research included in
Appendices. The Final Report will be conveyed visually with GIS
map graphics as well as supporting text. Images and graphics
will also be used throughout to further illustrate the findings and
recommendations. As requested in RFP, source digital file to be
provided will be in Microsoft Word and PowerPoint format.
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Public Engagement Plan
The CTA Team will conduct Public Engagement throughout the program’s
estimated 6 to 7 month time frame. It is our commitment to provide
a Public Engagement schedule and consistent presence that includes
community workshops, open houses, presentations, from project kick off
to project completion.
The communications and community engagement strategy will develop
an open dialogue to ensure that all sides are heard and actions are taken
on community issues and opportunities. We recognize that stakeholders
receive information in different forms and mediums, and we will
make every effort to ensure these stakeholders are presented with the
information in the manner that best suits their interests.
We will prepare a strategic communications and engagement plan, which
will contain traditional and new media approaches, such as a Facebook,
Twitter, etc. along with traditional channels such as the Cty’s website and
through city platforms such as the planning and economic development
departments.
Information will be tailored to effectively communicate with different
stakeholder groups. It is expected that these communications channels
will include:
Formal & Informal Meetings
Bi-Weekly Progress Reports
Open Houses & Town Halls - for interactive design and policy input.
Media Releases – to report on significant project milestones.
Advertisements and Postings – in local newspapers, radio stations and
notice boards.
On-Line Survey – preparation of an on-line survey through either or both
the City and Economic Development Websites
Social Media – to provide regular updates of project information through
Facebook and Twitter.
The CTA Planning Team of Kieron Hunt and Monica Plecker will lead the
communications & public engagement and will draft and distribute
media releases and work with the entire CTA and Client Team to ensure
proper messaging and clarity. The City will be responsible for promoting
open houses and workshops through media activities, including media
buying and ensuring any paid media delivers the required response.
DETAILED SCHEDULE BY MONTH
MARCH 2017
Project Introduction to Planning Board & Economic Development Council
Objectives & Goals
Challenges & Opportunities
On-the ground fieldwork
On-Line Survey
Print/Social Media and Website Updates
APRIL 2017
Progress Workshop to Planning Board & Economic Development Council
On-Line Survey
Public Open House #1 –Information Session
Questionnaire #1 – Issues & Opportunities
Print/Social Media & Website Updates
JUNE/JULY 2017
Interim Presentation Workshop to Planning Board & Economic
Development Council
On-Line Survey Results
Public Open House Event #2 - Workshop
Questionnaire #1 Results
Questionnaire #2 – How are we doing? Have we missed anything?
Print/Social Media and Website Updates
AUGUST 2017
Draft Final Report Presentation to City Commission
Questionnaire #2 Results
Public Open House Event #3 – Roundtable
Questionnaire #3 – Have we hit the mark?
Print/Social Media & Website Updates
SEPTEMBER 2017
Main Street Open House
Presentation of Final Urban Design & Streetscape Guidelines Report
FINAL Report Presentation to Planning Board
FINAL Report Presentation to City Commission
Print/Social Media & Website Updates
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WORK PROGRAM TASKS Hours MARCH APRIL MAY
TASK ONE: Situational Assessment 80
Workshop Meeting #1: Introductory Meeting 2
Field Investigations & Information Gathering 24
Macro & Micro Economic Overview
Growth Trends, Challenges & Opportunities 16
Nodal Overview Assessment 24
Workshop Meeting #2: Project Progress Workshop 6
Public Engagement #1: Public Information Session 8
TASK TWO: Projection Methodology & Capacity Analysis 112
Demographic Growth Patterns & Trends 40
Residential Land Use Capacity Framework 40
Retail Land Use & Employment Lands Supply & Demand
Capacity Framework
20
Office Land Use & Employment Lands Supply & Demand
Capacity Framework
Industrial Land Use & Employment Lands Supply & Demand
Capacity Framework
Hotel Land Use & Employment Lands Supply & Demand
Capacity Framework
Workshop Meeting #3: Interim Presentation Workshop 6
Public Engagement #2: Public Open House Workshop 6
TASK THREE: Trend Analysis 88
Summary Land Use Allocation, Absorption & Employment
Creation
40
Growth Scenarios 40
Workshop Meeting #4: Draft Final Report Presentation to City
Commission
4
Public Engagement #3: Public Open House 4
Workshop Meeting #5: Final Report Presentation - Planning
Board
Workshop Meeting #5: Final Report Presentation - City
Commission
Draft Final Report Deliverable Production 40
Final Report Deliverable Production 20
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JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
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Affirmation of Non-discrimination
Statement of Non-discrimination – Attachment 1
____________________________________(name of entity submitting) hereby affirms it will not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, creed, sex, age, marital status, national origin, or because of actual or perceived sexual orientation, gender identity or disability and
acknowledges and understands the eventual contract will contain a provision prohibiting
discrimination as described above and this prohibition on discrimination shall apply to the hiring
and treatments or proposer’s employees and to all subcontracts.
______________________________________
Name and title of person authorized to sign on behalf of submitter
CTA, Inc.
Wayne Freeman
Principal-in-Charge
Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in Support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection
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Thank you for the opportunity.
411 E. Main Street | Suite 101
Bozeman, MT 59715
406.556.7100
www.ctagroup.com