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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCAI.Bozeman.Demographic and Economic Analysis.Proposal 2017 0131A PROPOSAL TO PROVIDE PROFESSIONAL SERVICES TO CONDUCT ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS SERVICES IN SUPPORT OF A COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE LAND USE PROJECTION JANUARY 31, 2017 COMMUNITY ATTRIBUTES INC. 1411 4TH AVE. SUITE 1401 SEATTLE, WA 98101 PROJECT MANAGER: ELLIOT WEISS ELLIOT@COMMUNITYATTRIBUTES.COM CITY OF BOZEMANECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES [ BLANK ] SEATTLE DENVERwww.communityattributes.com We tell data-rich stories about communities that are important to decision makers. January 31, 2017 Chris Saunders Policy and Planning Manager, City of Bozeman 121 North Rouse Ave. Bozeman, MT 59715 RE: City of Bozeman Demographic & Economic Analyses Dear Mr. Saunders, Community Attributes Inc. (CAI) is pleased to submit a proposal to assist the City of Bozeman with an update of its Comprehensive Plan by providing professional economic and demographic analyses. CAI is a multi-disciplinary consulting firm with years of experience in planning and economics. Our mission is to provide research and analysis to increase awareness, inform decisions and improve results for our clients and the communities they serve. We are very familiar the comprehensive plan process, local, regional and national sources of demographic and economic data, the methods required to estimate land demand and capacity and the extension of data into actionable economic development strategy. Specifically, our value lies in the following: > In-depth experience in updating comprehensive plans, estimating buildable lands, and analyzing demographic and economic trends, as well as a commitment to analytical rigor > Excellence in geographic information systems, cartography and information design that adds value to our quantitative and qualitative analyses > A well-honed ability to translate data findings into actionable strategy and to isolate key implications for other planning efforts, as well as a track record of award-winning planning and implementation > A robust portfolio of work throughout the Pacific Northwest and Mountain West states In closing, we value the opportunity to partner with the City of Bozeman With CAI, you can be assured of availability and accessibility of key staff, transparency, objectivity and a collaborative spirit. Thank you for your consideration and we look forward to discussing our qualifications and approach. Feel free to contact me for further coordination at 206-523-6683. Sincerely, Elliot Weiss, AICP Project Manager [ BLANK ] SEATTLE DENVERwww.communityattributes.com We tell data-rich stories about communities that are important to decision makers. CONTENTS Project Summary Company Description Project Team References Outline of Services Cost and Expenses Required Forms 07................................................................................................. 09............................................................................................ 13........................................................................................................ 17........................................................................................................... .............................................................................................. ....................................................................... 19 Included separately ....................................................................................................21 6 CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES [ BLANK ] 7 PROJECT SUMMARY PROJECT UNDERSTANDING The City of Bozeman is a rapidly growing community of 43,000 residents. The county seat for Gallatin County is Bozeman, which is currently one of the fastest growing micropolitan areas in the U.S. The City’s employment is represented across a broad range of employment types across multiple counties. Bozeman is known for Montana State University and its access to Yellowstone National Park. Furthermore, as surrounding communities start to grow they are beginning to locally provide essential employment opportunities and services. The City of Bozeman completed its last comprehensive plan in 2009 and desires an update that reflects the changing nature of the City. Some important factors that highlight the change occurring in Bozeman include a higher rate of development, changing job conditions such as telecommuting and non-traditional employment, the newfound growth of nearby communities and new infrastructure developments in broadband internet access. These factors have made it necessary to review the City’s growth prospects and to ensure that the City is adequately prepared to accommodate these development pressures. Furthermore, the City of Bozeman is experiencing substantial demographic change in the form rapid aging of the population, delays in the creation of new households with those households being generally smaller. Employment within Bozeman is also changing in part due to rapid technological advancement manifested in new types of business practices, job types and educational offerings. These new trends in employment and demographics reiterate the need for a new look at current and future land use and associated policy. A sophisticated understanding of buildable lands and land capacity methods underpins our approach and ensures a nuanced analysis of land demand. CAI has completed this type of work for numerous clients including, most recently, the City of Astoria, Oregon (left). 8 CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES [ BLANK ] 9 COMPANY DESCRIPTION COMPANY PROFILE Community Attributes Inc. (CAI) provides research and analysis to increase awareness, inform decisions and improve results for our clients and the communities they serve. We are passionate about telling data-rich stories about communities that are important to decision makers. Our products include presentations, written reports and on-line interactive tools that inform and disseminate working knowledge about important issues and trends. Our team includes professional staff with expertise and advanced credentials in economics, business and finance, philanthropy, public policy and administration, political science, urban and regional planning, real estate development, technical communications, computer science and programming, cartography and geography. President and CEO Chris Mefford founded CAI in 2005. Based in Seattle, he brings two decades of consulting, project management and analysis experience related to regional economies, land use and transportation patterns. He speaks to audiences often on regional economy and community development considerations across the Puget Sound region. We collaborate with clients that seek the betterment of their communities. Clients benefit from supportive relationships in advancing their own missions with transparency, objectivity and rigor as hallmarks of our practice. Our clients span all sectors of the economy, including private sector enterprises; nonprofit organizations; industry stakeholders; economic development organizations; city, county and state governments; and regional business associations. Contact: Chris Mefford, AICP President & CEO 1411 Fourth Ave., Ste. 1401 Seattle, WA 98101 p: (206) 523-6683 w: www.communityattributes.com Elliot Weiss, AICP Project Manager 2520 Ames St. Edgewater, CO 80214 p: (319) 621-2483 e: elliot@communityattributes.com 10 CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES Expertise Since its founding in 2005, CAI has served clients with analysis and strategic support in the following areas: Community & Economic Development The CAI team prides itself on assisting communities and regions realize their long-term goals. Our technical expertise and consulting approach supports best practices in strategic planning and community visioning, providing a strong foundation for economic development. From community inception to established regions, we work with economies of all sizes to address needs, pinpoint opportunities and set goals into action for sustainable community development. >Economic Development Strategy >Target Industry Identification >Employment and Workforce Assessment >Citizen Task Force & Committee Facilitation >Community Development Planning Regional Economics Regional economic analysis is a founding core competency of CAI. We maintain economic data and key indicators in-house, enabling us to expedite analyses with accurate and up-to-date information. Our economic profiles and market research go beyond data reports to tell a story that guides strategic decisions. Our expertise reflects a 360-degree understanding of economic visions, market opportunities and financial resource management. >Industry Cluster Studies >Economic Profile Development >Economic Forecasts >Economic & Fiscal Impact Analyses >Trade Capture & Leakage Analyses >Municipal Finance Evaluation >Market Opportunity Assessment Land Use Economics CAI helps planning and development entities create sustainable urban development plans by connecting economic trends and urban activity to land use planning and development strategies. We link site-specific analyses to community plans for consistency between private investment needs and desired community benefits. >Transportation Economics >Real Estate Economic Analysis >Market Analysis >Feasibility Analysis >Tenant Demographic Profiles >Industrial Land Assessment >Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) Evaluation 11 Surveys, Market Research & Evaluation Our staff employ a wide range of methods and tools – from sophisticated modeling to stakeholder interviews – to achieve client objectives. Data is the backbone that supports informed decisions and improves results across all sectors. The CAI team is particularly adept at gathering and synthesizing data, both qualitative and quantitative, to help our clients realize their goals. >Assess & Develop Research Strategy >Community & Stakeholder Surveys >Monitoring & Program Evaluation >Demographic Research >Focus Groups >In-Depth Interviews >Message Development >Stakeholder Outreach CAI - Denver CAI has worked through the country and internationally and opened a Denver office in 2016, headed by Project Manager Elliot Weiss. Elliot’s leadership in planning, urban design, development analyses and economic development strategy, as well as his excellent communication and organization skills, will serve our clients in the Rocky Mountain State well. 12 CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES [ BLANK ] 13 PROJECT EXPERIENCE PUGET SOUND REGIONAL COUNCIL Regional Economic Strategy Puget Sound Region, WA | 2014 – 2017 PUGET SOUND REGIONAL COUNCIL Industrial Lands Analysis Puget Sound Region, WA | 2014 – 2015 KING COUNTY Buildable Lands Analysis King County | 2014 CITY OF KENT Economic Development Plan Kent, WA | 2014 CITY OF LYNNWOOD Economic Development Action Plan Lynnwood, WA | 2015 CITY OF SAMMAMISH Economic Development and Town Center Plan Sammamish, WA | 2013 – 2014 EDUCATION Master of Business Administration, 2002. University of Washington, Seattle, WA Master of Urban and Regional Planning, 1995. University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA Bachelor of Arts, 1991. Mathematics, minor in economics University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, IA MEMBERSHIPS & CERTIFICATIONS – Board Member, Leadership Tomorrow – AICP – Member, Urban Land Institute CHRIS MEFFORD, AICP President and CEO Chris will serve as principal-in-charge and will provide project oversight. Chris founded CAI in 2005. He excels in working with jurisdictions on economic development and planning projects, providing market and feasibility analyses; economic and financial analysis; and policy analysis, including land use and transportation policies. He brings two decades of experience in consulting, project management, and analysis of regional economies, land use and transportation patterns. He often speaks to audiences about the Pacific Northwest regional economy and community development considerations. Chris is an expert in regional economic development, socio-economic and demographic analysis, financial feasibility analysis, GIS modeling and mapping, and transportation planning. Prior to founding CAI, Chris led market analyses and managed projects with Seattle consulting firms, served as a senior planner at a public sector agency and was a transportation and land use planner with national transportation planning firms. PROJECT TEAM 14 CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES PROJECT EXPERIENCE CITY OF ASTORIA Economic Development Plan Astoria, OR | 2016 - Ongoing CITY OF SPOKANE VALLEY Comprehensive Plan Spokane Valley, WA | 2016 NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DISTRICT Economic Recovery Plan Okanogan County, WA | 2016 AMERICA’S BEST COMMUNITIES COMPETITION Community Revitalization Plan Cities of Arlington and Darrington, WA | 2015 ECONOMIC ALLIANCE SNOHOMISH COUNTY Economic Redevelopment Strategy North Stillaguamish Valley, WA | 2015 CITY OF RIDGEFIELD Ridgefield Junction Subarea Plan Ridgefield, WA | 2015 – 2016 CTY OF LYNNWOOD Economic Development Action Plan Lynnwood, WA | 2015 SKILLS – Land Use Planning – Demographic and Economic Analyses – Data-driven Urban Design – Economic Development Strategy – Resiliency & Recovery Planning – Real Estate Development Process & Pro Forma Analysis EDUCATION Master of Urban and Regional Planning, 2012. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI Certificate in Real Estate Development, 2012. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI Bachelor of Arts, 2009. Political Science and International Studies, minor in Spanish. University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA MEMBERSHIPS & CERTIFICATIONS – AICP – Member, Urban Land Institute ELLIOT WEISS, AICP Project Manager Elliot will serve as project manager and will handle day-to-day communication with the client while leading relevant planning analyses. Elliot brings expertise as a planning consultant with award-winning work in urban design and community and economic development. His academic and professional background cultivates expertise in policy analysis, urban economics, financial modeling and fiscal impact analysis, land use planning and zoning analysis, place making and economic development, outreach and facilitation and project management. At CAI, Elliot contributes his skills in land use planning, economic development action plans, development feasibility analysis, and digital 3D modeling and rendering. Elliot was instrumental in creating an Economic Redevelopment Plan for Snohomish County following a 2014 landslide, which recently won the Puget Sound Regional Council’s Vision 2040 Award. He has a passion for urban issues and an interest in how cities function as hubs for cultural exchange and socioeconomic transformation. Prior to joining CAI, he was an independent planning consultant and also spent a year working for Americorps on projects involving energy-efficient affordable housing, community development and alternative transportation in under-served urban areas. 15 SPENCER COHEN, PHD Principal Economist Spencer will lead relevant economic analyses. Spencer brings five years of public sector experience and an extensive academic background in international economic geography. He has extensive experience in industry and market analysis, regional economic development policy, and issues related to international trade and foreign direct investment. As the senior policy advisor for the Washington Economic Development Commission, he was responsible for determining ways to both optimize the state’s economic development system and improve how programs measure their impact. Spencer specializes in economic analysis, including the use of input-output models to assess industry economic impacts. DIANA HARING Senior Data Systems Analyst Diana will support planning efforts through GIS. Diana Haring has expertise in cartography, database management, data visualization and geographic analysis. Her work at CAI includes database systems management through SQL Server, spreadsheet modeling and interactive data exploration. In addition, Diana brings cartographic experience using GIS for spatial analysis and modeling. Previously, Diana was a part of the Global Burden of Disease project—a retrospective analysis of 220 diseases and injuries in 200 countries in the past 30 years. The project modeled epidemiologic and etiologic trends to help shape policies around the world. SUDARSHAN SAMPATH Economic Analyst Sudarshan will support relevant economic analyses. Sudarshan Sampath has a strong background in both macro and micro economics, econometrics, statistics, political economics and research methodology. Previously, Sudarshan worked as an economic assistant and field representative for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Here he assisted numerous U.S. Department of Labor analysts and collected data for the Consumer Price Index (CPI). As a research associate for the Institute for Social and Economic Change—based in Bangalore, India—Sudarshan provided impact evaluation of a project designed to increase agricultural and rural growth in India. Sudarshan holds a master’s in economics and econometrics from the University of Kent (UK). KRISTINA GALLANT, AICP Planning Analyst Kristina will support planning analyses. Kristina Gallant is an urban planner with deep experience in housing and real estate, with professional interests and experience in land conservation and urban design. At CAI, Kristina provides expertise in housing, real estate development feasibility, financial modeling and long range planning. Kristina previously worked for the Housing Authority of Snohomish County where she led a partnership of 13 cities, working with elected officials and city staff to address housing challenges. She has a passion for finding new ways for communities to understand their needs, and identifying solutions that maximize economic, environmental and social benefits. Kristina has a master’s in urban planning from the University of Washington. Other members of our planning and economics staff may contribute to this project. Full resumes for any member of our staff are available upon request. 16 CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES [ BLANK ] 17 REFERENCES KING COUNTY BUILDABLE LANDS ANALYSIS King County, WA | December 2013 - April 2014 Community Attributes Inc. helped King County perform its legally-mandated buildable lands analysis update. This update helped King County officials understand how municipalities met their housing and employment growth goals as mandated by the Growth Management Act. Technical assistance included coordinating with King County’s municipalities to collect and archive data submittals, assembling data into a report and map book, as well as a data profile template. CAI compared capacity data to growth targets, providing a regional understanding of existing capacity and where growth is occurring. CAI also assisted with a series of workshops with representatives from each municipality, providing strategic assistance in navigating their reporting obligations. Population: 2 million. King County Employees: 14,000. Contact Karen Wolf, Senior Policy Analyst at King County Office of Performance, Strategy and Budget Tel: 206.263.9649 Email: Karen.Wolf@kingcounty.gov SPOKANE VALLEY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE City of Spokane Valley, WA | February - September 2016 The City of Spokane Valley contracted CAI to provide demographic and economic analysis to support an update of the City’s comprehensive plan. CAI also researched and authored several plan elements and created a sophisticated graphic template that engaged users and simplified wayfinding within the document. The plan updated reflected the City’s renewed commitment to economic development and provided linkages to specific, implementable actions from several existing plans and policies, providing the City with a coordinated approach to key initiatives in the coming years. Population: 91,000. City of Spokane Valley Employees: 100. Contact Mike Basinger, Senior Planner at City of Spokane Valley Tel: 509.720.5331 Email: mbasinger@spokanevalley.org RIDGEFIELD JUNCTION SUBAREA PLAN City of Ridgefield, WA | May - December 2015 CAI, along with subconsultant MIG|SvR Design, led the development of a subarea plan for the City of Ridgefield that focused on enhancing Ridgefield Junction’s identity and potential as an economic engine. The City annexed the area, formerly zoned for agriculture, to increase the city’s employment and commerce opportunities. The plan provided guidance on future infrastructure investment, comprehensive plan policy, zoning regulations and urban design, and served as an implementation plan for the City. The plan also facilitates the area’s growing wine and beverage industry. CAI executed the plan by analyzing market conditions and environmental constraints; creating a market-based design that respects the vision of the subarea and responds to unique site conditions; and working with City staff, community stakeholders and other consultants to integrate the plan into Ridgefield’s ongoing planning efforts. Population: 5,600. City of Ridgefield Employees: 45. Contact Jeff Niten, Community Development Director, City of Ridgefield Tel: 360.857.5013 Email: jeff.niten@ci.ridgefield.wa.us 18 CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES CITY OF SAMMAMISH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN City of Sammamish, WA | March 2012 - February 2013 Community Attributes Inc. created an economic development plan for the City of Sammamish, with an emphasis on the Sammamish Town Center. CAI developed commercial and housing profiles to analyze employment, real estate, retail, commercial and demographic data for Sammamish’s major commercial activity centers. Stakeholder engagement efforts included interviews with representatives from government and private sector leaders, business forum facilitation and workshops. The report included assessments of strategic advantages, challenges and opportunities to support and grow the commercial and residential assets in the City of Sammamish. Population: 61,000. City of Sammamish Employees: 100. Contact Kamuron Gurol, former Assistant City Manager at City of Sammamish Tel: 206.248.5508 Email: kamurong@burienwa.gov A rigorous assessment of vacant and buildable lands aided physical planning and economic development strategy for the City of Ridgefield (left). CAI used GIS and other software to create accessible, engaging graphics that represent analytical complexity. 19 OUTLINE OF SERVICES The following work plan represents our unique approach and our task-by-task path to successful completion of the project. If needed, this work plan may be revised to better fit the City of Bozeman’s needs, and a specific schedule for meetings, check-ins and deliverables will be determined in collaboration with the client. 1. Kickoff and Ongoing Project Management CAI will travel to Bozeman for an in-person kickoff meeting with the Client and an introductory meeting with the Planning Board, if appropriate. This trip will include a tour of the City and key development sites. Task One also provides for ongoing project management by CAI, including bi-monthly progress reporting by e-mail. Specific subtasks are included below. a. Kickoff and Introductory Meeting with the Planning Board b. City Tour and Overview of Development Sites c. Bi-monthly Progress Reports d. Ongoing as-needed Project Coordination 2. Comprehensive Citizen and Stakeholder Engagement CAI will provide a stakeholder engagment plan at the outset of the project to guide comprehensive engagement efforts that target residents, business owners and other key stakeholders. This task provides for all required meetings requested by the City of Bozeman, as well as a project website, online stakeholder survey, targeted phone-based interviews, a public forum and a pop-up display for the City to use to gather feedback. Please note that all of these items are optional and the engagement plan will be tailored to fit the City’s needs, as well as budget availability. a. Project Website b. Stakeholder Survey c. Targeted Stakeholder Interviews d. Presentation of Initial Findings to EDC e. Presentation of Initial Findings to Planning Board f. Public Forum and Pop-up Display g. Presentation of Draft Report to City Commission h. Presentation of Final Report to Planning Board i. Presentation of Final Report to City Commission 20 CITY OF BOZEMAN | ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES 3. Review Existing Goals and Strategies CAI will review all relevant documents to understand the City’s goals and associated strategies. This will ensure that the work for this project will align with and make the transition from economic development goals, strategic plan goals, and applicable comprehensive plan goals to identified land needs to support continued growth. 4. Status and Trends Assessment CAI will produce a demographic and economic profile of the City focusing on household and employment characteristics as well as forecasted growth both locally and regionally. Part of this process will include identifying and mapping economic assets (city center, major employers, access, and more) and assessing their significance to residential and commercial growth patterns. CAI will also compile current market conditions for the City of Bozeman and surrounding market area, such as multifamily and commercial lease rates, vacancy rates and trends and development comps. CAI will update local and regional economic and demographic data and will assess relevant economic development trends at national, state, regional and city scales. Based on the outcomes of this analysis and the results of the forecast in Task Five, CAI will identify the number of sites, by type, reasonably expected to be needed to accommodate local growth into the future. The findings from the status and trends assessment will be compiled and delivered in a data deck or similar format, a. Demographic Profile b. Economic Profile c. Housing and Real Estate Assessment 5. Forecast and Land Inventory CAI will utilize its expertise in econometrics and data analytics to produce an employment forecast in order to understand how land demand in the City of Bozeman may change into the future. Analytics may draw from historical data, custom econometric modeling, existing regional and industry forecasts, and qualitative resources on the long-term opportunities and growth of major industries in Bozeman, Gallatin County and the wider region. We will work in collaboration with the City of Bozeman to determine the appropriate forecast time horizon and review interim projections with City staff and other stakeholders. Data sources may include the Montana Department of Industry and Labor along with sources within Montana State University. 6. Land Approach and Strategy to Match Local Trends CAI will synthesize findings from Tasks 2 - 5 to assess the demand for land by site type and will recommend strategies that reconcile existing goals with available lands. These strategies will ensure smooth implementation of existing plans and policies and will identify challenges that require redress in the update of the Comprehensive Plan. The approach and strategy will be delivered in a technical memorandum or similar format. 21 REQUIRED FORMS AFFIRMATION OF NON-DISCRIMINATION Community Attributes Inc.