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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCity of Bozeman - Future West ProposalRESPONSE TO RFP ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS SERVICES IN SUPPORT OF A COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE LAND USE PROJECTION CITY OF BOZEMAN, MONTANA 37 E MAIN ST. IMAGE COURTESY OF TIM EVANSON PRIMARY CONTRACTOR SUB-CONTRACTOR ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PROJECT SUMMARY 03 COMPANY DESCRIPTIONS 04 PROJECT TEAM 06 REFERENCES 09 OUTLINE OF SERVICES 11 COST AND EXPENSES See Separate Sealed Envelope AFFIRMATION OF NONDISCRIMINATION Attachment 1 ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 3 PROJECT SUMMARY The City of Bozeman is in the early stages of preparing an updated Comprehensive Plan to guide the City’s growth over the coming years, on the heels of a new economic development strategy and citywide strategic plan. Bozeman is experiencing dynamic and dramatic change due to its significant economic and population growth. While City policy calls for more neighborhood center-based development, these policies have not always been well understood by the citizenry and building industry. We believe that this is a function of both considerable market growth as well as changing market conditions, and the uncertainty it brings. RCLCO proposes to partner with Future West to provide economic and demographic analysis to asses the city’s recent development trends and to project anticipated future demand for each of these land uses (residential, retail, and employment-driven) over the next decade. This market analysis will inform the land uses, scale, and character of future growth and redevelopment envisioned in the City’s Comprehensive Plan and provide guidance on how the City can help shape this growth within its commercial centers-based land use approach. Bozeman’s investment in an economic and demographic analysis in support of updating its Growth Policy is critically important, but will only gain support if the community is engaged in a meaningful way throughout the process. The proposed public involvement process would work at several levels, engaging the business and development industry and neighborhood associations, along with broad general public. This multi-level approach will not only bring useful information into the analysis it will also build understanding in the Growth Policy planning process. Specifically, our 4-6 month work process will be structured around the following key tasks that will speak to both citywide trends and to more in-depth analysis of priority small planning areas around the city: Month 1: Kickoff, Site Visit, and Initial Public Involvement »Begin community engagement through focus groups, interviews, interactive information meetings, and targeted, consistent communication that continues over the course of the project. Month 2-3: Analytics »Identify overarching demographic and economic trends impacting the city today; »Characterize the city’s residential, retail, office, and industrial markets in terms of trends in new supply, occupancy, and rent/ price by land use and location; »Project the amount, character, and location of future market demand by land use; Month 3-4: Public Involvement and Recommendations »Make recommendations regarding priority investment areas and policies; »Create a framework for future decisions in the comprehensive plan process and beyond; Month 4-5: Presentations of Findings »Document our findings in an executive-style report and present to relevant stakeholders and public officials. We look forward to working with you on this exciting opportunity and believe that our iterative and open working style will make for a productive quantitative research effort and public engagement process designed to answer these key questions with input from citizens and local organizations, councils, and agencies. In addition to informing the impacts and opportunities associated with the economic and demographic trends, public involvement will also seek to identify the underlying values of citizens and local organizations, councils and agencies. These values can then be threaded through the analysis to the larger planning efforts of the City of Bozeman and direct the policies and guidance that reflect the character of the community. ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 4 ABOUT FUTURE WEST Future West (www.future-west.org) is a nonprofit consulting organization that provides support for collaborative community development and conservation projects in the Northern Rockies. Future West was founded in Bozeman in 2008 by Dennis Glick and Jennifer Boyer. Future West’s commitment to collaborative processes have provided a wide range of experiences, which include orchestrating public process techniques for policy decisions, designing interactive meeting agendas, developing training curriculum on communication and public involvement, and providing direct facilitation services. We build experienced teams for each project and program and have partnered with RCLCO to combine real estate market expertise with our public engagement and project management experience for the Bozeman Economic and Demographic Analysis Services in support of a Comprehensive Plan Update Land Use Projection. The mission of Future West is to help communities create the future that they want. We do this by providing information, technical assistance, training, and facilitation services to key land use decision makers such as local government elected officials, planning boards, and staff. By bolstering their capacity to better plan for and manage change in their communities, the long-term well-being of the people and the lands, waters and wildlife of this region, will be more secure. Jennifer Boyer of Future West will lead the public engagement process for this work. Randy Carpenter of Future West will act as client liaison and will assist Ms. Boyer with public engagement. ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 5 ABOUT RCLCO RCLCO is the nation’s leading independent real estate advisory firm, providing end to end solutions to the leading practitioners in the land use industry. We are recognized in the industry as having the ability to address specific project situations as well as our clients’ overall long-term strategic needs. Our services are customized to address our clients’ particular needs, supported by both quantitative analysis and creative problem solving. In each engagement, we strive to add value to our clients’ real estate activities and to provide ways for them to gain a competitive advantage in the marketplace. Our advice is market-driven, analytically based, practical, actionable, and financially sound. RCLCOs delivers the highest standard of client service by drawing from the best and most relevant talent for each engagement. We will apply a project management model that is used for all projects the company performs each year. Each of our projects is led by a project director who is responsible for overall project direction, client relationship management, and quality control. Reporting to the project director is the project manager, responsible for overseeing the day to day tasks, deliverables, and team resources required to meet our client’s needs. Our clients’ satisfaction is reflected in the fact that the majority of our business is recurring or referred to us by existing clients. The team dedicated to this project, as well as all RCLCO project personnel and management, will meet on a weekly basis (often more frequently) to review all projects, the status associated with deliverables, and labor allocation. Sample relevant projects include: »River City Company: Real Estate Market Study Concerning the Demand for New Housing, Office and Retail Development Potential in Downtown Chattanooga; Chattanooga, Tennessee »Howard County: US Route 1 and Snowden River Parkway/Dobbin Road Corridor Market Analysis and Research; Howard County, Maryland »City Of Charlottesville: Comprehensive Housing Study and Policy Recommendations; Charlottesville, Virginia ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 6 KEY PERSONNEL & ROLES - FUTURE WEST Randy Carpenter, Future West Program Manager Client Liaison Mr. Carpenter’s 20 years of community planning experience includes 5 years of local government land use and community development experience followed by 15 years of service in non-profit organizations including the Sonoran Institute and Future West. He has extensive experience in land use and market research, land use training programs for local governments, online, social media communications, and direct assistance to local government in land use issues. Randy holds a Master’s Degree in Urban and Regional Planning from the University of Iowa. In addition to his work with Future West, he assists Montana State University’s Community Design Center as an adjunct instructor. Sample Pertinent Projects: »Managed the Sonoran Institute’s Western Community Stewardship Forum, a land use and community development training program for county commissioners across the Intermountain West. Twenty-eight counties took part in the training over a 5-year period. »Helped facilitate the Building from the Best of the Northern Rockies project of the Sonoran Institute (2006). The project researched best development projects and developed distinguishing characteristics of these projects which were highlighted in a publication and award ceremony. Projects included historic preservation, brownfield re-development and historic re-use. * (http://www.sonoraninstitute.org/component/docman/doc_details/1283-building-from-the-best-of-the-northern- rockies.html?Itemid=3) »Managed numerous research projects at the Sonoran Institute, including the Gallatin County Fiscal Impact Analysis, which assessed the costs of providing future infrastructure and services in Gallatin County under alternative growth scenarios; the About Town report, a comparison of property tax revenues accruing from various forms of commercial development in several western cities, including Bozeman; and the Reset report, an analysis of the potential market for mixed-use development in several western cities, including Bozeman * (https://sonoraninstitute.org/resource/reset-assessing-future-housing-markets-in-the-rocky-mountain- west-03-13-2013/) (https://sonoraninstitute.org/resource/dollars-and-sense-countywide-zoning-comparing-the-cost-of-planned-and- unplanned-growth-gallatin-county-montana-fiscal-impact-analysis-04-01-2009/) (https://sonoraninstitute.org/resource/about-town-building-revenue-for-communities-final-report-06-15-2012/) »Founder and manager of Gallatin Ahead, Future West’s program to engage citizens in Gallatin County land use policies. Gallatin Ahead provides information and communications regarding Gallatin County growth trends and policy options to a wide range of audiences, including County and City Commissioners, the building industry, as well as concerned citizens. Mr. Carpenter has made numerous presentations and panel appearances on growth issues in Gallatin County. ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 7 KEY PERSONNEL & ROLES - FUTURE WEST Jennifer Boyer, Future West Associate Public Involvement Lead Ms. Boyer brings 20 years of practical experience working with diverse, collaborative groups and citizen initiatives. She has provided direct facilitation for board meetings, public forums, technical workshops, task force and appointed committees. Jennifer’s facilitation is most often provided using a consensus format, but also has included more traditional engagement techniques including focus groups, public forums, social media and online surveys and news releases. Whether a project requires short or long- term facilitation support, building a foundation of trust and commitment to creating the best possible outcome for all interests is the underlying value that ultimately ensures success. In 2011 Jennifer attended a Wilburforce Foundation Training in Seattle, WA with Julian Griggs of Dovetail Consulting on facilitating collaborative groups. The training focused on skills for small groups to large public meetings. Academic focus in graduate school included conflict resolution and collaborative process. Sample Pertinent Projects: »Project management and facilitator for the Butte Comprehensive Historic Preservation Plan (2014). Managed a twelve person citizen-committee and a public process to develop a new CHPP that integrated historic preservation goals and approaches with other community goals including economic development. »Big Hole Watershed Committee Director (1998-2004). Facilitated consensus process for a multi-stakeholder group focused on natural resource and community goals. Facilitation of monthly meetings, public forums and education workshops on a range of issues including drought response, land use planning, floodplain management and endangered species. »Strategic planning services includes building an interactive and organization specific agenda, facilitating an energizing, engaged planning process and documenting a plan per client’s direction. The following organizations have received strategic planning services from Future West and Ms. Boyer: »Madison Ranchlands Group »Clearwater Resource Council »Montana Watershed Coordination Council »Henry’s Fork Legacy Project »Blackfoot Challenge »Trout Unlimited »American Rivers »World Wildlife Fund »Facilitate a collaborative, consensus-driven, planning process for forest health with diverse stakeholders and agencies (2012- 2015). The Gravelly Landscape Collaborative meet regularly to discuss, prioritize and develop projects to promote forest health and local economies. »Facilitate Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks Recreation Planning Committee for the Big Hole River (2000). A diverse group of interests engaged in a consensus process to develop recommendations for recreation management on the Big Hole River. »Community organizing and public process design for land use planning efforts in Madison County, MT and Fremont County, ID (2006-2009). Designed and facilitated public forums using consensus-based public engagement techniques. Community members and leaders from diverse backgrounds built recommendations for land use plans in their county. »Helped facilitate the Building from the Best of the Northern Rockies project of the Sonoran Institute (2006). The project researched best development projects and developed distinguishing characteristics of these projects which were highlighted in a publication and award ceremony. Projects included historic preservation, brownfield re-development and historic re-use. * http://www.sonoraninstitute.org/component/docman/doc_details/1283-building-from-the-best-of-the-northern- rockies.html?Itemid=3 ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 8 KEY PERSONNEL & ROLES - RCLCO RCLCO’s Bethesda, MD office will be responsible for completion of this engagement. Adam Ducker, Managing Director, will be the firm’s Project Director on this engagement and key representative. Erin Talkington, Vice President, will act as Project Manager. Adam Ducker, Managing Director, RCLCO Adam joined RCLCO in the mid-1990s as an associate directly after graduate school and learned the trade with the firm. Adam leads RCLCO’s Urban Real Estate Advisory Group and is a recognized expert in: economic development, market and financial analysis, positioning, repositioning, the marketing of real estate assets, consumer research, and corporate strategy development. He has particular depth of expertise in high-density housing, retail/entertainment, and hotel development. During the early 2000s, Adam was a principal with a boutique West Coast real estate consulting firm, directing their Northern California office. He also has a specialized expertise in understanding the interrelation and unique marketing and operating synergies of residential, hospitality, and retail/attraction environment, in small scale urban locations. Adam is a frequent speaker within the industry and an active member of the Urban Land Institute (Programs vice chair of the Mixed-Use Development Council). A native of the New York metropolitan area, Adam received Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees from Columbia University in Urban Studies. Sample Relevant Experience: »JMA VENTURES, LLC; Project Director: Market and Strategy Considerations for Real Estate Development at the Red Lodge Mountain Resort; Red Lodge, Montana »THE SONORAN INSTITUTE; Keynote Speaking Engagement for the Community Builders Summit in Bozeman, Montana »DESIGN WORKSHOP; Project Director: Great Streets St. Louis; St. Louis, Missouri-South Grand »LAFAYETTE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY; Project Director: Feasibility Study for Market-Driven Development Adjacent to the University of Louisiana Lafayette; Lafayette, Louisiana »BLACK CREEK GROUP; Project Director: Strategic Market Analysis for Residential Land Uses at Crystal Springs/Mountain Creek; Sussex County, New Jersey Erin Talkington, Vice President, RCLCO Erin Talkington is a Vice President based in RCLCO’s Washington, DC office. Since joining the firm in 2010, Erin has engaged with a wide variety of clients in both the public and private sectors to provide market and economic analysis that guides development and planning decisions. Her experience includes highest and best use analysis for large mixed-use sites, downtown and corridor revitalization studies, and regional growth analysis. Applicable to projects of all types and scales, Erin’s strength is her ability to quickly synthesize the key market opportunities and strategic positioning for a particular site and communicate that vision to project team members, clients, and community stakeholders. Prior to RCLCO, she gained project management experience for The Reinvestment Fund Development Partners. She holds a BA in Architecture from the University of Pennsylvania. Erin is a member of the Urban Land Institute (ULI) in Washington, DC and is the chair of the Young Leaders Group. Sample Relevant Experience: »RIVER CITY COMPANY; Project Manager: Real Estate Market Study Concerning the Demand for New Housing, Office and Retail Development Potential in Downtown Chattanooga; Chattanooga, Tennessee »CITY OF WILLIAMSBURG; Project Manager: Comprehensive Market Analysis of Midtown; Williamsburg, Virginia »ENVISION UTAH; Project Manager: Understanding the Growth and Development Potential of Centers and Corridors in Utah County; Utah County, Utah »CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE; Project Manager: Comprehensive Housing Study & Policy Recommendations; Charlottesville, Virginia ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 9 FUTURE WEST - REFERENCES Ralph Johnson, Montana State University Professor of Architecture 217 Cheever Hall, Bozeman, MT 59717 ralphj@montana.edu Montana State University Employees: 3,700; Enrollment: 15,688 Envision Tomorrow Growth Analyses for Gallatin County Envision Tomorrow is a software program that allows users to create future growth scenarios for a geography and compare those scenarios for their fiscal and environmental impacts. Envision Tomorrow is based on locally-specific pro formas for various development typologies, including residential, commercial, industrial, and mixed-use. Mr. Carpenter continues to assist Professor Johnson in this project, which will include a new set of scenarios being created by a graduate class in Spring 2017. Charity Fechter, Madison County Planning Director 103 West Wallace Street, Virginia City, MT 59755 cfechter@madison.mt.gov | (406) 843-5250 Madison County Employees: 266; Population: 7,700 Madison County - 2012 Fiscal Impact Analysis Concern over potential fiscal and environmental costs associated with this development prompted Madison County Commissioners to collaborate with Future West on the completion of a study on “Projected Future Fiscal Impacts to Local Services in Madison County.” Future West staff and associates analyzed the vacant subdivision lots, and the costs associated with providing services and maintaining roads should these be developed. Matt Vincent, Chief Executive 2012-2016 or Jon Sesso, Planning Director Butte-Silver Bow Courthouse, Room 108, 155 West Granite Street, Butte MT 50701 jsesso@bsb.mt.gov | (406)497-6250 Butte-Silverbow County Employees: 502; Population of Butte: 33,000 City and County of Butte-Silver Bow, Montana - Butte Comprehensive Historic Preservation Plan Future West and InteResources Planning Inc. partnered to produce the first Comprehensive Historic Preservation Plan (CHPP) for Butte, MT. Jennifer Boyer served as the facilitator for a 12-person citizen committee that was charged with producing the plan from the ground up. Future West Associate Scott Carpenter provided the technical resources and plan development for the committee. We took a unique approach to crafting the CHPP. Butte’s CHPP involved not only a citizen committee of diverse interests in historic preservation, but regular public forums for the larger community to engage and learn about the approaches and success stories from other Montana communities and beyond. The committee operated under consensus guidelines; public comment was included in all of the committee meetings throughout the 18-month project. MSU ENVISION TOMORROW WORKSHOP ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 10 RCLCO - REFERENCES Deana Rhodeside, Director, Rhodeside & Harwell 510 King Street, Suite 300, Alexandria, VA, 22314 (703) 683-7447 | deanar@rhodeside-harwell.com Speedway Revelopment Commissions: 8 Employees; Population of Jurisdiction: 173,778 Sandy Springs, GA Comprehensive Plan and Small Area Plans (8/2015-7/2016) Regional development patterns were causing Sandy Springs to evolve from a suburban bedroom community to an urban area with the largest employment center in the southeast. RCLCO was brought to write an update of Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan. We conducted a market analysis to ground the Plan in a solid understanding of local market forces and identify market-based needs. We provided a thorough analysis of the demographics and economics in the city today, as well as statistical demand projections that anticipated future growth over the next twenty years. RCLCO also contributed our expertise in economics, housing, and development by authoring the Economic Development Element and Housing Elements of the Plan. The City Council adopted the Plan, guiding the next 20 years of growth. Kim White, President and CEO, River City Company 850 Market Street, Chattanooga, TN 37402 kwhite@rivercitycompany.com | (423) 265-3700 River City Company: 8 Employees; Population of Jurisdiction ~173,778 Real Estate Market Study Concerning the Demand for New Development Potential in Downtown Chattanooga (8-2013-12/2013) RCLCO has been hired by The River City Company on an ongoing basis since 1989 to create economic development strategies for Downtown Chattanooga. The result has been one of the most dramatic turnarounds of any downtown in the country. With the tremendous success of the revitalization action plan, RCLCO was given the broader responsibility to implement an economic development strategy for the entire metropolitan area. RCLCO has been involved with the implementation of these strategies, including a real estate strategy for the development of sufficient industrial sites in the region, such as eco-industrial parks. Nick Duerksen, Economic Development Director, City of Sandy, Utah 300 Carew Tower, 441 Vine Street, Cincinnati, OH 45202 (801) 568-7106 | nduerksen@sandy.utah.gov Real Estate Market Study and Financial Analysis Concerning the Sandy Steps Project (12/2012-7/2015) Sandy, Utah is an urbanizing suburb of Salt Lake City within the Wasatch region. Sandy City retained RCLCO to evaluate the market for residential, commercial, and hospitality real estate in the downtown area. The analysis determined the highest and best use of each property type according various scenarios. These scenarios reflected a range of infrastructure and other investments by key public and private stakeholders, which impacted the market positioning, pricing, and estimated capture of demand for each use. We concluded that the development of the area as a walkable, mixed-use urban core was feasible and likely, standing to benefit from the region’s rapid growth, its proximity to resorts, and the increasingly limited developable land in the region. ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 11 OUTLINE OF SERVICES The analytical tasks leading to the fulfillment of the above objectives are outlined below: Project Kickoff 1. Obtain and examine any existing materials/plans you may have that are pertinent to this engagement, such as the available local resource documents listed in the RFP. 2. Meet with your team to discuss your goals and objectives with this assignment, and hone in on key questions/ concerns to be addressed by our analysis. Finalize the list of 10-15 priority “small area” sub-geographies to be studied in greater detail. (Meeting 1 in RFP) 3. Identify key people at the city or other organizations/institutions we should speak with in the course of our study, such as the regional planning organization, local university departments, or economic development organizations that are recognized as leaders in understanding the city’s and region’s economic and growth outlook. 4. Outline the work plan with the city to identify timing for progress reports, key meetings, and public engagement. 5. Physically tour the study area. Assess the strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities of specific small areas identified for in-depth analysis. Evaluate the study areas based on factors that influence their marketability such as location, access, visibility, zoning and planning status, current and/or proposed neighboring uses, topography, views, vegetation, other natural and/or man-made features, on-site improvements (if any), and other pertinent factors. 6. Kickoff the public engagement process with key stakeholder groups, including: »Downtown Business Partnership »Bozeman Area Chamber of Commerce »Prospera Business Network »Bozeman Midtown Urban Renewal Board »Northeast Urban Renewal Board »Southwest Montana Building Industry Association »Gallatin Association of Realtors »Bozeman Neighborhood Associations »Natural Resource Organizations (Greater Gallatin Watershed Council, Gallatin Valley Land Trust, Gallatin Local Water Quality District). Characterization of Citywide and Neighborhood Market Dynamics 1. Collect and analyze standard demographic and socioeconomic data pertaining to the future demand for rental and for-sale housing, retail, office, and industrial (flex/warehouse) property, including the most recent data on local household and employment growth forecasts; household distributions by age and income; migration patterns; commute patterns; etc. a. Employment trends, b. Local economic drivers, c. Population and household growth trends, d. Household distribution by age, income, size, and type, e. Retail expenditures, f. Land use trends, g. Tenure (own v. rent), h. Geographic distribution of the above. ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 12 2. Collect information on real estate trends for rental and for-sale housing, retail, office, and industrial property to assess market health and underlying drivers of real estate demand. This will be conducted at the citywide level, as well as for the priority small areas as identified by the City. a. Permitting and recent construction trends, b. Annual sales and net absorption, c. Rent and sales price trends, d. Occupancy/vacancy, e. Product type trends, f. Property-level data to inform a representative competitive set, g. Planned and proposed projects. 3. We will also gather additional unique data for each land use, including but not limited to: a. Housing cost burden for renters and owners, b. Geographic analysis of where growth or population loss within key age/income segments is occurring at a localized level, c. Commute patterns and mode share, d. “Gap” analysis of retail over/undersupply by store type, e. Business mix in local commercial districts, f. Place/physical characteristics and other neighborhood factors that may be influencing growth trends, g. Locations where rehab/reinvestment of existing properties is occurring, h. Identification of local job “cores,” i. Breakdown and geographic visualization of jobs by industry, j. City’s competitive positioning within the region to attract households, jobs, retail spending, and new development. 4. Reach out to local brokers and experts to enhance our understanding of the market and verify trends suggested by the data. Future Demand by Land Use 1. Translate population and employment projections into projected demand for real estate using RCLCO’s proprietary and detailed statistical modeling capabilities, segmented by age, household size and income (for residential), and by industry sector, type of workplace, and type of retail (for commercial real estate). The result will be demand projections in the near-term (0-5 years) and mid-term (5-10 years) for each candidate land use and product type and the likely price/rent positioning, based on economic and demographic trends, projected local and regional growth, and spending power. 2. Anticipate which neighborhoods are likely to be more competitive to attract different types of demand, how this might change over time, and the different ways in which demand might be realized (rehab/renovation, new development, occupying vacant space in existing developments). Discuss the likely scale, character, and mix of development potential of each small area. 3. Outline the above in an opportunity matrix delineating the key opportunities for the City and each neighborhood by land use, including the likely scale, character, timing, and mix of development potential of each small area. 4. Identify key sites that might be catalysts and the critical success factors necessary to realize the development potential within each neighborhood. Ongoing Public Engagement 1. Conduct at least 3 focus groups, 5 interviews, 3 interactive information meetings, and targeted, consistent communication on the project and its progress. A consistent flow of information will be executed in a communication plan that has weekly outputs through existing list serves, local media and organization newsletters. 2. Bozeman is experiencing dynamic and dramatic change due to its significant economic and population growth. While City policy ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 13 calls for more neighborhood center-based development, these policies have not always been well understood by the citizenry and building industry. We believe that this is a function of both considerable market growth as well as changing market conditions, and the uncertainty it brings. Bozeman’s investment in an economic and demographic analysis in support of updating its Growth Policy is critically important, but will only gain support if the community is engaged in a meaningful way throughout the process. 3. The proposed public involvement process would work at several levels, engaging the business and development industry and neighborhood associations, along with broad general public. This multi-level approach will not only bring useful information into the analysis it will also build understanding in the Growth Policy planning process. 4. The public involvement plan will include at least 3 focus groups, 5 interviews, 3 interactive information meetings, and targeted, consistent communication on the project and its progress. A consistent flow if information will be executed in a communication plan that has weekly outputs through existing list serves, local media and organization newsletters. 5. The groups and organizations that will be targeted include: »Downtown Business Partnership »Bozeman Area Chamber of Commerce »Prospera Business Network »Bozeman Midtown Urban Renewal Board »Northeast Urban Renewal Board »Southwest Montana Building Industry Association »Gallatin Association of Realtors »Bozeman Neighborhood Associations »Natural Resource Organizations (Greater Gallatin Watershed Council, Gallatin Valley Land Trust, Gallatin Local Water Quality District) 6. The focus of public involvement will be directly tied to the primary components of the economic and demographic analysis. In addition to informing the impacts and opportunities associated with the economic and demographic trends, public involvement will also seek to identify the underlying values of citizens and local organizations, councils and agencies. These values can then be threaded through the analysis to the larger planning efforts of the City of Bozeman and direct the policies and guidance that reflect the character of the community. Implementation Planning 1. Outline a logical framework for how the City and its neighborhoods might evolve and identify critical investments or catalysts for each neighborhood to realize its potential, whether or not new market-rate development is likely to occur. 2. Identify key issues and obstacles to development or redevelopment by land use, with particular focus given to the small areas identified by the City. 3. Summarize the policies, investments, or actions the City might take to implement the above, and to facilitate growth, address underutilized land conditions, and to create energy and diversity. Segment these recommendations by potential impact (fiscal/economic, market, social, etc.), and order of magnitude cost/ difficulty to achieve, to help the City prioritize its efforts. ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATEECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE 14 Presentation of Results 1. Present our initial findings at the end of the demand analysis, to the Economic Development Council and Planning Board (Meetings 2 and 3) 2. Present the draft report to the City Commission following the implementation planning.(Meeting 4) 3. Document our findings and conclusions, with supporting documentation, in the form of an executive style written report, with exhibits, tables and charts will be made available prior to Meeting 4. 4. Revise this document, as necessary to reflect the discussion/redirection from the City Commission, to serve as the key deliverable of this engagement, including a written executive summary. 5. Present the final report to the Planning Board and City Commission. (Meetings 5 and 6) ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR BOZEMAN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE COST & EXPENSES The professional fee to complete the scope of work outlined in this proposal is $85,000, including expenses and associated fees. The Economic and Demographic Analyses portion of that fee is $65,000 including relevant expenses. We bill monthly based on time spent and percent completion of the project, not to exceed the total fee for the work. A specific, set payment schedule by month can be provided once a detailed timeline for the work has been approved by the client. Typically, we expect these projects to follow a bell curve over a 4-6 month where the bulk of the fee is billed in the middle months of the project. For a four month project, that might mean a distribution of 20%-30%-35%- 15% of the fee being billed each month successively.